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000
FXUS63 KMQT 012321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOME DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW...ONE IS IN NE
MN AND THE OTHERS ARE IN SE SD/NE NEBRASKA. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE NEARBY AND MLCAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG...NO SHRA OR TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS
AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN E TO NRN LUCE COUNTY IN
VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO THE W...SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT WERE NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI THIS
MORNING HAVE MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. IT`S BEEN ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID DAY. DWPTS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BTWN 80F AND 90F.
COOLEST CONDITIONS (UPPER 60S/LWR 70S) ARE AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN E OF KESC.

WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN...POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING. IF SHRA/TSTMS DO
FORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE WHERE CU LOOKS BETTER DEVELOPED ATTM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THAT POSSIBILITY. NOTHING MUCH HIGHER
THAN SCHC POPS WILL UTILIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES OVER SD/NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT NE DURING THE NIGHT...AND
PROBABLY SHOULDN`T POSE A RISK FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR IN NRN MN WHERE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LITTLE OR NONE OF THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE REALIZED HERE.
END RESULT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS.

IT APPEARS THAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MI
WED...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AS OPPOSED TO THE PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
BETTER FOR SOME PCPN TO OCCUR ON WED...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. FOR NOW...OPTED TO RAISE
POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. DWPTS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
FOG WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KCMX AND KSAW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR
AROUND MID MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUMMER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE WEEK
WITH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 20KT. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE 20-30KT RANGE. FINALLY...FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOME DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW...ONE IS IN NE
MN AND THE OTHERS ARE IN SE SD/NE NEBRASKA. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE NEARBY AND MLCAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG...NO SHRA OR TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS
AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN E TO NRN LUCE COUNTY IN
VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO THE W...SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT WERE NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI THIS
MORNING HAVE MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. IT`S BEEN ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID DAY. DWPTS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BTWN 80F AND 90F.
COOLEST CONDITIONS (UPPER 60S/LWR 70S) ARE AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN E OF KESC.

WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN...POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING. IF SHRA/TSTMS DO
FORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE WHERE CU LOOKS BETTER DEVELOPED ATTM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THAT POSSIBILITY. NOTHING MUCH HIGHER
THAN SCHC POPS WILL UTILIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES OVER SD/NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT NE DURING THE NIGHT...AND
PROBABLY SHOULDN`T POSE A RISK FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR IN NRN MN WHERE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LITTLE OR NONE OF THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE REALIZED HERE.
END RESULT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS.

IT APPEARS THAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MI
WED...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AS OPPOSED TO THE PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
BETTER FOR SOME PCPN TO OCCUR ON WED...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. FOR NOW...OPTED TO RAISE
POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. DWPTS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
FOG WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KCMX AND KSAW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR
AROUND MID MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUMMER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE WEEK
WITH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 20KT. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE 20-30KT RANGE. FINALLY...FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 012039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOME DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW...ONE IS IN NE
MN AND THE OTHERS ARE IN SE SD/NE NEBRASKA. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE NEARBY AND MLCAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG...NO SHRA OR TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS
AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN E TO NRN LUCE COUNTY IN
VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO THE W...SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT WERE NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI THIS
MORNING HAVE MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. IT`S BEEN ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID DAY. DWPTS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BTWN 80F AND 90F.
COOLEST CONDITIONS (UPPER 60S/LWR 70S) ARE AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN E OF KESC.

WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN...POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING. IF SHRA/TSTMS DO
FORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE WHERE CU LOOKS BETTER DEVELOPED ATTM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THAT POSSIBILITY. NOTHING MUCH HIGHER
THAN SCHC POPS WILL UTILIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES OVER SD/NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT NE DURING THE NIGHT...AND
PROBABLY SHOULDN`T POSE A RISK FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR IN NRN MN WHERE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LITTLE OR NONE OF THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE REALIZED HERE.
END RESULT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS.

IT APPEARS THAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MI
WED...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AS OPPOSED TO THE PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
BETTER FOR SOME PCPN TO OCCUR ON WED...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. FOR NOW...OPTED TO RAISE
POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. DWPTS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUMMER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE WEEK
WITH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 20KT. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE 20-30KT RANGE. FINALLY...FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOME DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW...ONE IS IN NE
MN AND THE OTHERS ARE IN SE SD/NE NEBRASKA. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE NEARBY AND MLCAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG...NO SHRA OR TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS
AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN E TO NRN LUCE COUNTY IN
VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO THE W...SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT WERE NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI THIS
MORNING HAVE MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. IT`S BEEN ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID DAY. DWPTS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BTWN 80F AND 90F.
COOLEST CONDITIONS (UPPER 60S/LWR 70S) ARE AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN E OF KESC.

WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN...POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING. IF SHRA/TSTMS DO
FORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE WHERE CU LOOKS BETTER DEVELOPED ATTM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THAT POSSIBILITY. NOTHING MUCH HIGHER
THAN SCHC POPS WILL UTILIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES OVER SD/NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT NE DURING THE NIGHT...AND
PROBABLY SHOULDN`T POSE A RISK FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR IN NRN MN WHERE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LITTLE OR NONE OF THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE REALIZED HERE.
END RESULT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS.

IT APPEARS THAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MI
WED...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AS OPPOSED TO THE PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
BETTER FOR SOME PCPN TO OCCUR ON WED...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. FOR NOW...OPTED TO RAISE
POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. DWPTS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUMMER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE WEEK
WITH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 20KT. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE 20-30KT RANGE. FINALLY...FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOME DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW...ONE IS IN NE
MN AND THE OTHERS ARE IN SE SD/NE NEBRASKA. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE NEARBY AND MLCAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG...NO SHRA OR TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS
AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN E TO NRN LUCE COUNTY IN
VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO THE W...SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT WERE NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI THIS
MORNING HAVE MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. IT`S BEEN ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID DAY. DWPTS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BTWN 80F AND 90F.
COOLEST CONDITIONS (UPPER 60S/LWR 70S) ARE AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN E OF KESC.

WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN...POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING. IF SHRA/TSTMS DO
FORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE WHERE CU LOOKS BETTER DEVELOPED ATTM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THAT POSSIBILITY. NOTHING MUCH HIGHER
THAN SCHC POPS WILL UTILIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES OVER SD/NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT NE DURING THE NIGHT...AND
PROBABLY SHOULDN`T POSE A RISK FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR IN NRN MN WHERE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LITTLE OR NONE OF THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE REALIZED HERE.
END RESULT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS.

IT APPEARS THAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MI
WED...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AS OPPOSED TO THE PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
BETTER FOR SOME PCPN TO OCCUR ON WED...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. FOR NOW...OPTED TO RAISE
POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. DWPTS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUMMER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE WEEK
WITH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 20KT. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE 20-30KT RANGE. FINALLY...FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 012039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SOME DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED IN THE FLOW...ONE IS IN NE
MN AND THE OTHERS ARE IN SE SD/NE NEBRASKA. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVE NEARBY AND MLCAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG...NO SHRA OR TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET THIS AFTN. PER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS
AN AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM MENOMINEE
COUNTY TO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THEN E TO NRN LUCE COUNTY IN
VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. TO THE W...SCT
-SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT WERE NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE OF WRN UPPER MI THIS
MORNING HAVE MADE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. IT`S BEEN ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY HOT/HUMID DAY. DWPTS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BTWN 80F AND 90F.
COOLEST CONDITIONS (UPPER 60S/LWR 70S) ARE AT LAKESIDE LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN E OF KESC.

WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR THIS AFTN...POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING. IF SHRA/TSTMS DO
FORM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE WHERE CU LOOKS BETTER DEVELOPED ATTM.
RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD THAT POSSIBILITY. NOTHING MUCH HIGHER
THAN SCHC POPS WILL UTILIZED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES OVER SD/NEBRASKA WILL DRIFT NE DURING THE NIGHT...AND
PROBABLY SHOULDN`T POSE A RISK FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE DRIER
AIR IN NRN MN WHERE DWPTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LITTLE OR NONE OF THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE REALIZED HERE.
END RESULT...SHOULD BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS.

IT APPEARS THAT WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MI
WED...THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
AS OPPOSED TO THE PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
BETTER FOR SOME PCPN TO OCCUR ON WED...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR W
HALF WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. FOR NOW...OPTED TO RAISE
POPS INTO THE LOW/MID RANGE CHC CATEGORY TOWARD THE WI BORDER. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. DWPTS MIGHT BE A LITTLE
LOWER...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUMMER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU THE WEEK
WITH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER 20KT. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN WINDS WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE 20-30KT RANGE. FINALLY...FOG
MAY BE AN ISSUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER WARM/HUMID AIR MASS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011951
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011951
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 00Z THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS UPPER MI AND
WI...RIDING THE N EDGE OF THE LARGER 500MB RIDGE SET UP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.

AS A RESULT...WILL START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SLOWLY EXITING
SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FIGURED THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR TEMPS THROUGH
SATURDAY...IF NOT SUNDAY TOO. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY A BETTER PUSH OF AIR OFF LAKE MI WHERE THEY WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.

A LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW WILL SWING TO THE S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ONLY
LIMITED PRECIP REMAINING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY...AND THEN QUITE A CHANGE FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY
ONLY FCST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL ON WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS AND SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO FOR MOST PART THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING
FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL BY SO AFTER LOW-MID 80S ON THU...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
UPR 80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL ON WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS AND SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO FOR MOST PART THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING
FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL BY SO AFTER LOW-MID 80S ON THU...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
UPR 80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD SPARK ISOLD SHRA OR
TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FCST. IF SHRA DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KSAW. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR AROUND MID
MORNING ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL ON WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS AND SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO FOR MOST PART THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING
FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL BY SO AFTER LOW-MID 80S ON THU...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
UPR 80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD...BOTH AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE STARTED BOTH
KCMX/KSAW OUT AT VLIFR AND EXPECT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE
JUST ADDRESSED THE SHOWERS WITH VCSH AT KIWD/KCMX FOR THIS MORNING
BASED OFF THE RETURNS SEEN ON KDLH RADAR. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
MAXIMIZED...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BUT MOST WILL BE BETWEEN THE THREE TAF SITES.
IF THEY AFFECTED A SITE...THINK KIWD OR KSAW WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS...THINK GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE PUT
IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO MVFR VALUES FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL ON WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS AND SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO FOR MOST PART THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING
FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL BY SO AFTER LOW-MID 80S ON THU...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
UPR 80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD...BOTH AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE STARTED BOTH
KCMX/KSAW OUT AT VLIFR AND EXPECT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE
JUST ADDRESSED THE SHOWERS WITH VCSH AT KIWD/KCMX FOR THIS MORNING
BASED OFF THE RETURNS SEEN ON KDLH RADAR. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
MAXIMIZED...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BUT MOST WILL BE BETWEEN THE THREE TAF SITES.
IF THEY AFFECTED A SITE...THINK KIWD OR KSAW WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS...THINK GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE PUT
IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO MVFR VALUES FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL ON WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS AND SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO FOR MOST PART THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING
FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL BY SO AFTER LOW-MID 80S ON THU...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
UPR 80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD...BOTH AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE STARTED BOTH
KCMX/KSAW OUT AT VLIFR AND EXPECT TO QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE
JUST ADDRESSED THE SHOWERS WITH VCSH AT KIWD/KCMX FOR THIS MORNING
BASED OFF THE RETURNS SEEN ON KDLH RADAR. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
MAXIMIZED...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BUT MOST WILL BE BETWEEN THE THREE TAF SITES.
IF THEY AFFECTED A SITE...THINK KIWD OR KSAW WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS...THINK GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND HAVE PUT
IN VISIBILITIES FALLING TO MVFR VALUES FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010919 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL ON WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS AND SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO FOR MOST PART THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING
FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL BY SO AFTER LOW-MID 80S ON THU...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
UPR 80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010919 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL ON WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS
ACROSS AND SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE
ZONE AND IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO FOR MOST PART THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY COUPLE DAYS.
WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING
FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE
DEGREES AS WELL BY SO AFTER LOW-MID 80S ON THU...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
UPR 80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
UPR 70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS ACROSS AND
SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY...SO THINK IT
WILL BE MAINLY A DRY DAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN
BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST UPR
80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT UPR
70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS ACROSS AND
SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY...SO THINK IT
WILL BE MAINLY A DRY DAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN
BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST UPR
80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT UPR
70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS ACROSS AND
SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY...SO THINK IT
WILL BE MAINLY A DRY DAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN
BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST UPR
80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT UPR
70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START ON WEDNESDAY FM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WED AND
THU. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK FM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FM WESTERN CANADA DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS COAST.
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS CALIFORNIA
BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER REST OF GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SFC...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE STUCK
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. SINCE
UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THIS WEEKEND AND FRONT WILL BE PARALLEL
TO FLOW ALOFT...FRONT WILL STRUGGLE EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO/NEB/KS INTERSECTION IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z WED AND THEN TO
MOVE OVER WI/UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT. MLCAPES FOCUSED
MORE FM DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN ESE ACROSS WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN. MEAN
LAYER WINDS WNW-W...SO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-REGIONAL SHOWING
MAJORITY OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WI WITH THE SHRA/TSRA. ALSO NORTHERLY
GRADIENT/LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL STABILIZE
LOW-LEVELS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND OVER EASTERN CWA. CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST TOWARD WI BORDER. FOR TEMPS...STUCK TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH MID 80S INLAND WEST HALF. COOLER MID-UPR 70S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
WITH ONSHORE WINDS. IF THOSE ONSHORE WINDS START UP QUICKER...COULD
SEE READINGS ENDING UP COOLER THAN FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS. KEPT
LINGERING POPS MAINLY SCNTRL AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS ACROSS AND
SINCE SCNTRL WILL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE OF H85 CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
IN A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY...SO THINK IT
WILL BE MAINLY A DRY DAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO SSE-S WHICH RESULTS IN
BETTER CHANCE OF WARMING FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS BUMP UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST UPR
80S FOR WEST CWA ON FRIDAY AFTN. LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT UPR
70S NEAR LK MICHIGAN. NO CHANGE AT ALL THE HUMID CONDITIONS THAT
REALLY START UP TODAY...WITH DWPNTS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S. THOUGH NOT
IN THE FORECAST THE ENTIRE TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT FOG JUST ABOUT
ANYTIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORES WHERE THERE IS SOME ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. HAVE SEEN THIS
LAST FEW DAYS AND NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WILL NOT CONTINUE IN AT
LEAST SOME SHAPE OR FORM.

INTO THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL ACT AS KICKER TO THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST WHILE
DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE
INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IN 3 OF ITS RUNS OVER LAST FEW DAYS
HAS HINTED THAT SHRA/TSRA MAY BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT
DOWNSTREAM OF SURGE OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 850-300MB THICKNESS
LINES WOULD SUPPORT THAT POTENTIAL SHOWING NW-SE FLOW SATURDAY AND W-
E FLOW ON SUNDAY. LATEST ECMWF NOW BUILDS UPPER RIDGE MORE AND HAS
H85 THETA-E RIDGE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURRS IT WOULD LIKELY
STAY DRY OVER UPR MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN/LK SUPERIOR. THEN...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS MOVES EASTWARD...THERE WOULD BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE WEEKEND CONCLUDES AND ON INTO LABOR DAY. KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NW CWA. BY SUNDAY...BROUGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MORE OF THE NORTH CWA BUT STILL KEPT POPS SLIGHT CHANCE AT
BEST OVER SCNTRL FARTHER AWAY FM THE THETA-E RIDGE AND MORE INTO THE
LARGER SCALE RIDGE.

GFS BLOWS COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER MAINLY DUE TO SHOWING MORE OF A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
USE CONSENSUS POPS FOR FORECAST WHICH ARE HIGHEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY. STILL LOOKS COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...AT LEAST
COMPARED TO WARMTH THIS WEEK. BASED ON TRENDS FM LATEST MODELS...
CONFIDENCE IS LESSENING IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010815
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010815
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010815
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010815
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DECAYING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO TO JAMES BAY TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. DID SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME EARLIER IN THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THEY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF VERY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING MOIST AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN HAS
PRODUCED FOG ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...WITH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4MI AT TIMES. DID ISSUE A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BASED OFF THE SATELLITE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY
FALLING ONCE IT REACHED KISQ. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND AREAS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE SEEN
PATCHY GROUND FOG. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO A BRIEF STRATUS DECK AND THEN
DISSIPATING. ON FINAL ITEM TO NOTE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE SCATTERED
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL AID SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE UP IN THE AIR FOR TODAY AND
LARGELY TIED TO SEVERAL FEATURES COMING TOGETHER IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE
WEST/CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON
WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL ON THE
VERY THIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THAT AREA. SECOND...SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE HINTS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY BRUSH THE WEST/CENTRAL U.P. THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF IT WILL STAY NORTHWEST OF THE LAND
CWA...THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A SOUTHERN APPENDAGE TO THE SHORTWAVE
THAT MAY WORK WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND
850MB TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COARSE
MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS (INCLUDING 14KM ECMWF) ARE SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 19-22Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN
(GENERALLY FROM KIWD THROUGH BARAGA COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY). NCAR WRF ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THAT AREA TOO FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THEN EXPAND IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL U.P. THIS EVENING (MARQUETTE/ALGER/DELTA AND NRN MENOMINEE).
HAVE KEPT THE POPS CONFINED TO THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
WEAK TROUGH AND OVER THE LAND AREAS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES BASED OFF THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE SHORTWAVE BEING CLOSE/STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP THE SHOWERS AND ALSO
THE MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DID INCLUDE A FEW CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTY AREA DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS ON SOMETHING OCCURRING IN THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR (30-35KTS) OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. COMBINING THAT WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM IF ALL OF THE PIECES COME TOGETHER.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW AND A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE DRYING BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NOSES BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. FINALLY...EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW AND CMX WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 312320
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN
SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 312320
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN
SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312026
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312026
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MORE 80S ARE ON THE WAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE
SET UP FROM W TX-LOWER MI...EXTENDING UP THROUGH HUDSON BAY WILL
FLATTEN OUT ONLY SLIGHTLY...BEFORE REBOUNDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

WE WILL HAVE A LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
80F...PROBABLY 8 DAYS IN TOTAL. IT WILL LIKELY END UP THE LONGEST
STRETCH IN 2 YEARS...AND TIED FOR THE LONGEST STRETCH IN 9 YEARS.
THE LAST TIME WE HAD MORE THAN 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS IN 2006.

ALTHOUGH A NEARING SFC TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME PLENTY OF DRY
AIR. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.7 TO NEAR 2IN E.

ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY OR EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THEN ECMWF.
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW MOVING INTO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE NEXT
500MB LOW OR SIGNIFICANT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE W TROUGH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...INITIAL LOOKS SHOW THAT NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY COULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME COOLER
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 312021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPEPR LEVEL
RIDGE FROM NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES RESULSTING IN SW FLOW FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AT THE SFC...SSW
FLOW PREAVILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN ALKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE
CORNER OF MANITOBA INTO ERN SD. MOST OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER TODAY
HAS BURNED OFF EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SE ALONG LAKE MI NEAR KISQ.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE
MI INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM MN
INTO NW WI OR WRN LAKE SUPEROR AS AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
TAIL OF THE MANITOBA SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT
OF CAPPING AND ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV...EXPECT ANY
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL AND REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS
TO REDEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF.

TUE...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK
TROUGH SAG INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH SOME PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING...EXPECT BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
AND WITH WBZ HEGHTS NEAR 13K FT...SEVERE TS CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. EVEN WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS
ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 311141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 311141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 311141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 311141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PATCHY GROUND FOG IS AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH WILL NEAR THE WESTERN SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES...WITH KSAW ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG (ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE A TOUCH STRONGER).
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 310830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF LATE SUMMER RIDGING DOMINATING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING ALOFT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS STILL
ON TRACK TO ARRIVE AROUND LABOR DAY.

RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY TUE INTO WED WHICH ALLOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE REGION AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES OF RAIN.
STRONGEST WAVE BY FAR STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL HINT FM MODELS THAT TAIL OF THAT
SHORTWAVE OR ADDITIONAL MINOR WAVES LIFTING IN FM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING ALSO CANNOT DISCOUNT IDEA SHOWN BY
NAM/GEM-REGIONAL THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD WORK IN AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85. GEM-REGIONAL SHOWS QPF OVER KEWEENAW 12Z-15Z WHICH
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH...LACKING
DEEPER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MUCH PRECIP. TSRA CHANCES PROBABLY TOP OUT DURING PEAK
HEATING OF DAY...BUT WITH 1-6KM MUCAPE OVER 500J/KG POKING IN OVER
WESTERN CWA IN THE MORNING...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. IF A TSRA
COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF AFTN...COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STRONGER STORM WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR 30+ KTS. SMALL DCAPES AND WBZERO HEIGHTS TO 12KFT WOULD SUPPORT
ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE FM WEST TO EAST AT 25-30 KTS.
BASED ON H85 TEMPS AROUND 18C WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...DOWN
SOME FM THE LOW 90S FORECAST TODAY.

WEAKNESS IN RIDGE STILL THERE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT SO MAY SEE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED AFTN. THEN INTO WED
NIGHT...BASED ON ITS OWN FORECAST SOUDNINGS...LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS SEEM TOO AMBITIOUS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LIGHT QPF IN ARC FM CNTRL
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LOT OF DRY AIR BLO H6 AND THE MID LEVEL RH SUGGESTS MAYBE BKN
CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIP. WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER NAM/GEM-
NH/ECMWF WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. HEAT CONTINUES WITH
READINGS ON WED REACHING BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES OVER WEST AND MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN. DEVELOPING SSE WINDS WILL
KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE FM KEWEENAW TO BIG BAY/MARQUETTE
A SHADE COOLER.

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THURDAY APPEARS TO STAY
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AT LEAST RIGHT NOW. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING ON THU
AFTN. TEMPS ON THU MID 80S TO NEAR 90...SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WED
WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS OF 18-20C. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY SO ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH BY THAT
TIME SHOULD BE WEAK. WITHOUT MUCH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BE TIED TO EDGE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPANDING FM THE
PLAINS. REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO MAKE IT OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME FRAME SEEMS LIKE IT
WILL END UP MOSTLY DRY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED AND THU.

GFS AND ECMWF/GEM-NH SHOW DIFFERENCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY COLD FRONT THAT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER MAY SEE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA OVER AT LEAST WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. HEAT
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS AGAIN UPR 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. GFS HAS
BACKED AWAY FM THE 22-24C H85 TEMPS IT SHOWED YDY...SO PROBABLY
LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE WARMEST. GFS MUCH
QUICKER SHOWING FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH UPPER RIDGE AND DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY. TYPICALLY THE STRONGER RIDGE WINS OUT. AT THIS POINT
WILL NOT STRAY FM MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 310822
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310822
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
JUST WEST OF THUNDER BAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES THE
CWA ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND
UNDER ABUNDANT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING. OTHER THAN
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT DRY AIR AND AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND LOWERED 3AM
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THOSE
VALUES...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST AND WAS AIDED BY
THE SLIGHT MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FOG AND STRATUS
HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND HAS BE NOSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BORDER AT TIMES. EXPECT THE FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO A
STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DUE TO THE 10-15KT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN MONTANA. OTHER THAN THE DIURNAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FOG BURNING OFF...ONLY EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 15-17KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS KIWD WILL
LIKELY PUSH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...AS NAM/GFS DIFFER SOME DUE
TO THE FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. GFS HAS
MIXING ALMOST TO 850MB (TEMPS THERE RIGHT AROUND 22C)...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE BARAGA PLAINS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
AND DRAG A DECAYING TROUGH EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
TRAILING/WEAKENING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 650MB...WHILE THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A POCKET OF 925-850MB MOISTURE PIVOTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING IN THAT AREA (MISSOURI)
RIGHT NOW...THERE ISN/T MUCH THERE FOR CLOUDS OR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE FROM WESTERN
COLORADO MOVES UP INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE
MOISTURE...HAVE SOME CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE AND STEEPER 600-400MB LAPSE RATES WERE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES. THOSE STEEPER LAPSE RATES DO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AT THAT LEVEL THINK THUNDER POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW. BUT THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE ENOUGH TO MATCH THE
THUNDER TO THE POPS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER IS VERY LOW.
FINALLY...CONTINUED TO MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA TONIGHT DUE TO THE CONTINUED INDICATION IN THE MODELS FOR ENOUGH
COOLING BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION TO SUPPORT LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. DO HAVE TO WONDER THOUGH IF WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FOG TO ONLY THE SHELTERED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE AREA IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT...UP TO 20KTS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM
LAKE WINNIPEG AND NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK...BUT COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 OR EVEN 30KTS AT A FEW OF
THE HIGHER PLATFORMS TOWARDS ISLE ROYALE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BE BELOW 20KTS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 310520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 310520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 310520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 310520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 302321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 302321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 302321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 302321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 301847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 301847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 301757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 301635
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1235 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301635
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1235 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 301635
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1235 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 301130
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 301130
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 301130
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BROAD STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMTH IS THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH IS WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FM
SOUTHWEST CONUS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
BROAD TROUGHING FM ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ANOTHER AREA OF TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. H85 TEMPS SURGING UPWARDS OF +20C ON MONDAY AND A STEADY
SRLY WIND SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES OVER WEST CWA WITH MID-
UPR 80S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL COOLING NEAR LK MICHIGAN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONGER SFC LOW CROSS MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. MAY SEE TAIL END OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAVE BETTER CHANCE AT TRIGGERING AT LEAST
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WITH MLCAPES TO 1500J/KG AND UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG WEAK DECAYING SFC FRONT AND LAKE BREEZES. PULSE TYPE STORMS
COULD OCCUR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO 30 KTS AND DCAPES 500-
1000J/KG. SOUNDINGS OVERALL PRETTY DRY WITH JUST A NARROW MOIST
LAYER AROUND H8 AND SOME CAPPING H8-H7. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD HOLD
DOWN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TO ISOLATED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM GOOD
WITH THIS PATTERN. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. COULD SEE AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT APPEARS LESS THAN TUESDAY SO
WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT OVER AS MUCH AREA AS
TUESDAY. H85 TEMPS NEARING +20C AGAIN SO SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD 90 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF CWA AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN.

GFS QUITE STRONGER THAN ECMWF OR GEM-NH WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. QPF FM GFS MORE WIDESPREAD...LIKELY DUE TO
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION THAN OTHER MODELS.
29AUG/18Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR...SO THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY. 00Z
ECMWF IS JUST AS AGAINST THE STRONGER WAVE IDEA. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE CAUSING THIS COMMOTION IN THE MODEL SOLN STILL OVER PACIFIC
ATTM...SO REALLY TOUGH TO TELL IF THE IDEA IS FEASIBLE. WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WHICH DOWNPLAYS GFS LED IDEA AND RESULTS IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS LONG AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE NOT BIGGER
ISSUE...TEMPS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WARM START TO SEPTEMBER CONTINUES.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
DIGS AS FAR SOUTH AS CA/NV. H85 TEMPS 18-24C...WARMEST GFS...WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS INTO AT LEAST LOW 90S AWAY FM ANY LK MICHIGAN
MODIFICATION. GFS EVEN SHOWS +24C OVER WESTERN CWA AND IF THAT
VERIFIES...COULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 90S. ECMWF STAYING
MORE IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO WILL NOT GO MORE THAN NEAR 90 DEGREES
ATTM. EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIKELY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF UPR
LAKES...BECOMES FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES
TOWARD PLAINS AND INTERSECTS PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN RIBBON FM
CNTRL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ESSENTIALLY THIS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL RESIDE ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FRONT
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AS IT WILL RUN PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
EXPECTED PATTERN AND BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES COULD SEE REMNANT
SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO SNEAK OVER UPR LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
MAJORITY OF CONCENTRATED SHRA/TSRA WOULD STAY WEST. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY FORECAST AROUND BY THAT POINT THOUGH /MUCAPES THROUGH H7
WELL OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE TYPICALLY MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF/ CWA
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS EVEN
SUBTLE FORCING COULD PROVIDE TRIGGER FOR ELEVATED AND/OR SFC BASED
SHRA/TSRA. NO CHANGE TO THE HEAT...WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAK IN THE HEAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
LABOR DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN A WSW WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW 8H
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 20C OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS STRONG WAA AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 70S READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NORTHERN
LAKE MI. A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 80S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...WARMEST FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND THEN
REDEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN IN A SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT PERIODS OF SW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS TODAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300559
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
159 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROUGH W...RIDGE E. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN A CONSTANT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY INITIALLY IS THE CU OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS S CENTRAL AND E. THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS CROSSED WFO MQT...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARDS SAW...AND STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR E UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH THE LAKE MI
BREEZE SHIFTING IN.

OTHERWISE...A DRY FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE CWA. THE
500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS TO FALL AOB 5KTS INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND CU QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED SECTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL END
UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT
TODAY...AS 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C THIS AFTERNOON JUMP TO 19-23C BY
THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 1-1.24IN...WITH
AFTERNOON LOW RH VALUES FALLING TO 45-60 PERCENT SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS SUNDAY OVER
MAINLY N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR ISLE ROYALE/.

A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE SLIDING A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300559
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
159 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROUGH W...RIDGE E. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN A CONSTANT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY INITIALLY IS THE CU OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS S CENTRAL AND E. THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS CROSSED WFO MQT...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARDS SAW...AND STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR E UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH THE LAKE MI
BREEZE SHIFTING IN.

OTHERWISE...A DRY FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE CWA. THE
500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS TO FALL AOB 5KTS INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND CU QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED SECTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL END
UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT
TODAY...AS 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C THIS AFTERNOON JUMP TO 19-23C BY
THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 1-1.24IN...WITH
AFTERNOON LOW RH VALUES FALLING TO 45-60 PERCENT SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS SUNDAY OVER
MAINLY N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR ISLE ROYALE/.

A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE SLIDING A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300559
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
159 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROUGH W...RIDGE E. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN A CONSTANT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY INITIALLY IS THE CU OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS S CENTRAL AND E. THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS CROSSED WFO MQT...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARDS SAW...AND STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR E UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH THE LAKE MI
BREEZE SHIFTING IN.

OTHERWISE...A DRY FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE CWA. THE
500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS TO FALL AOB 5KTS INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND CU QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED SECTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL END
UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT
TODAY...AS 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C THIS AFTERNOON JUMP TO 19-23C BY
THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 1-1.24IN...WITH
AFTERNOON LOW RH VALUES FALLING TO 45-60 PERCENT SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS SUNDAY OVER
MAINLY N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR ISLE ROYALE/.

A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE SLIDING A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300559
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
159 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROUGH W...RIDGE E. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN A CONSTANT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY INITIALLY IS THE CU OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS S CENTRAL AND E. THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAS CROSSED WFO MQT...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARDS SAW...AND STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR E UPPER MI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH THE LAKE MI
BREEZE SHIFTING IN.

OTHERWISE...A DRY FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE CWA. THE
500MB RIDGE TO OUR W WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS TO FALL AOB 5KTS INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND CU QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
ELEVATED SECTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL END
UP AROUND 5-8F WARMER OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI SUNDAY THAT
TODAY...AS 850MB TEMPS OF 12-14C THIS AFTERNOON JUMP TO 19-23C BY
THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN 1-1.24IN...WITH
AFTERNOON LOW RH VALUES FALLING TO 45-60 PERCENT SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN SHIFTS E BEFORE
RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID
WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE
ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY AS A WARM
AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE
AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM LATE TONIGHT AT KSAW...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE WILL BE FEW LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS SUNDAY OVER
MAINLY N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR ISLE ROYALE/.

A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA ON SUNDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE SLIDING A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF




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