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000
FXUS63 KMQT 212328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.

TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.

THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.

THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH HI PRES DOMINATING THRU WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WL BE AT SAW LATE
TNGT/EARLY WED...WHEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING THRU CROSSOVER
DEWPT THIS AFTN WL ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
DOWNSLOPE S WIND JUST ABV THE SFC AT IWD AND CMX WL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT THOSE SPOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 211953
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.

TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.

THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.

THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT KIWD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB









000
FXUS63 KMQT 211856
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.

THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.

THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT KIWD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 211757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT KIWD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 211114
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
714 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...MVFR CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON...

WILL FINALLY BE GETTING RID OF MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN FROM ONTARIO...FIRST AT KCMX AND
LAST AT KSAW AND KIWD. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL RISK OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 211114
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
714 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...MVFR CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON...

WILL FINALLY BE GETTING RID OF MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN FROM ONTARIO...FIRST AT KCMX AND
LAST AT KSAW AND KIWD. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL RISK OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 211114
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
714 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...MVFR CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON...

WILL FINALLY BE GETTING RID OF MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN FROM ONTARIO...FIRST AT KCMX AND
LAST AT KSAW AND KIWD. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL RISK OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 211114
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
714 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...MVFR CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY AFTERNOON...

WILL FINALLY BE GETTING RID OF MVFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER UPR MICHIGAN FROM ONTARIO...FIRST AT KCMX AND
LAST AT KSAW AND KIWD. ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL RISK OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 210729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THEN DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON...

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 210729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THEN DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON...

00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP INDICATE RIDGING IS BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER IS
STILL TO THE NORTH THOUGH...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR WEAK CYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST OVER UPR MICHIGAN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW
THAT MOVED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH 900MB
INVERSION PER UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS IN CANADA AND FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR
IS STILL LEADING TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING SKIES ARE
SEEN PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...PROBABLY NEAR P59 AND
OUT EAST AROUND WHITEFISH POINT. NE WINDS UPSLOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER NCNTRL AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO MIDDAY FOR MOST OF WEST HALF OF
CWA...EXCEPT KEWEENAW. EVENTUALLY THOUGH THE INVERSION LOWERING BLO
900MB AND SUB CLOUD DRYING WITH THE BUILDING HIGH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. SINCE THERE IS MINIMAL CLOUD NOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS STANNARD ROCK ON LK SUPERIOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLEARING TREND MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
COOL THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 40S. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...MAY SEE TEMPS
INTO LOWER 50S NEAR WI BORDER AND SCNTRL.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS
DOWN BLO 25 PCT OF NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON THE
RECENT CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH
WINDS ON WESTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH TO KEEP TEMPS BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH IT WILL DECOUPLE AND THE FAVORED
COLD SPOTS COULD SEE TEMPS AS LOW AS UPR TEENS. POSSIBLE THERE MAY
BE PATCHY STRATUS/GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NEAR
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINING
WITH A BIT OF MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SERLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 210639
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 210639
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
239 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD AND END OF THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
RIDGES...A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OR BRUSH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

TO START...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT ON THAT ONLY BEING TO 925-900MB (NOT REACHING THE MUCH
WARMER 850MB TEMPS). THUS...WILL KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST).

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH
BLOCKING FROM THE UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE NEW YORK
COAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE AND WILL KEEP
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA FOR MUCH
OF THURSDAY. DID TREND POPS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY (LIKELY VALUES
OVER THE FAR WEST) WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST HALF. COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS
OF THE SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND HAVE
ADDRESSED THAT WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCES AS THEY WORK
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL WORK BACK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THE 12TH
OF OCTOBER. ONCE AGAIN...MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED AND KEEP THE
AREA FROM MIXING TO THE MUCH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE THE INVERSION
BETWEEN 900-850MB...BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
50S AND A FEW 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
SPINNING IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
BEING THE INHIBITING FACTOR. THUS WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY
(20-25MPH) ON SATURDAY...STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE COLDEST AIR IS DELAYED AND WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...HIGHS FOR SUNDAY UNDER A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 210548
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 210548
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT
SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
BY TUE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 202308
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 202308
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT SAW DUE TO STRONGER UPSLOPE WIND
DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KSAW OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CMX FIRST TUE MORNING AND THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON AT IWD...BUT SHOULD LINGER AT SAW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 202013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WRN PLAINS RESULTING IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE THE WRN LAKES. AT
THE SFC...NNW WINDS PREVAILED BTWN LOW PRES OVER NRN LAKE HURON AND
HIGH PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SFC-800 MB
MOISTURE...CYCLONIC AND UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND
-1C (LAKE WATER TEMPS STILL NEAR 8C-9C) WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES INTO W AND N CNTRL UPPER MI.

TONIGHT...UPSTREAM OBS MDLS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -4C...HELPING TO SUSTAIN SOME LIGHT
PCPN. AS THE NW ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS TO THE SE...VEERING WINDS TO
NNE WILL SHIFT THE REMAINING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAINLY INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED. EVEN THOUGH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 500 FT AGL...EXPECT THAT THE LAKE
OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE MOIST LAYER THAT ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR
-5C...WILL NOT SUPPORT SNOW. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING MIN READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM ONTARIO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TUE...THE LINGERING 2K-3K FT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED INTO THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
MOISTENING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ENOUGH
HEATING/MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO BRING DIMINISHING CLOUDS THAT
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE S AND WEST WHILE LOWER
READINGS IN THE LOW 40S PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 201957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TODAY DIGS INTO THE NE
U.S. THIS WILL SET UP RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS STILL WILL BE
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL FALL AT OR BELOW 32F FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA EXCLUDING THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT WETTER FOR THE
THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MN DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER W CANADA AT THAT TIME...A SFC TROUGH OVER MANITOBA AND
NW MN THURSDAY MORNING WILL NEAR THE REGION. WITH UPPER MI STUCK IN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE
COAST...AND THE CANADIAN LOW. LIMITED E PROGRESS OF SHOWERS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE W...AND
WERE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK
THIS SOLUTION.

LOOK FOR THE 500MB WAVE TO PUSH E OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING. THE W CANADIAN
SFC LOW-500MB LOW WILL SHIFT INTO NE MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM
AIR SURGING INTO UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS OF 8-12C LOOK REASONABLE
FRIDAY NIGHT ON WSW WINDS...WITH SFC TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR TRANSITION PERIOD...AS ZONAL
FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT...AND THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE FCST GUIDANCE...SHOWING UP
ON THE IDEA OF HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN FROM THE
NW. THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C AT 00Z
SUNDAY...WHILE THE 20/12Z IS AT A MUCH MORE MILD 7C. WILL KEEP WITH
A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE FCST STILL AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN OF THE 500MB
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY EXIT TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY AS A
TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WET WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 201801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW. THE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WEST UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE MORNING AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 201140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KCMX AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT KSAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 201140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KCMX AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT KSAW. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 200844
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 200844
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RIDGING IS BUILDING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEK. THE SUNSHINE WILL BE WELCOME.

MAIN SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BUT
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THE LOW NOT ALL THAT COOL WITH MAINLY 40S SEEN
UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. AFTER THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED MOST
AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT...IT IS QUIET
CURRENTLY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER LK SUPERIOR TIED TO ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. A LOT OF CLOUDS STILL
REMAIN /MOIST LAYER UP TO AROUND H85 PER 00Z INL RAOB/ AND CANADIAN
RADAR AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO DO
POINT TO AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS WORKING SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.

ONCE WINDS TURN NNW AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT /DELTA T/S AT AT LEAST
8C/ AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -2C BY AFTN AND AS LK SUPERIOR WATER
TEMPS AVERAGE 7-8C. PERHAPS WITH WEAK DAYTIME HEATING /HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL CAPE...MAY END
UP WITH HYBRID TYPE LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXTENDING
FARTHER INLAND THAT JUST THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS. COVERED THAT
WITH ISOLD POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS IRON MTN TO STEPHENSON TO ESCANABA.
BEST CHANCE FOR UP TO A TENTH OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. LEANED ON GEM-REGIONAL INTO TONIGHT AS IT SHOWED
STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BTWN EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND EVEN LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NIL BY EVENING THOUGH
AND MOIST LAYER IS SUBSIDING BLO H85...SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH
COVERAGE AS WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH WBZERO HEIGHTS FALL
BLO 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN -5C...SUGGESTING THERE WILL NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS AND
THUS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW. KEPT PYTPE AS RAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH DOWNSLOPING NE WINDS
FORMING OFF ONTARIO IN THE EASTERN CWA AND A DOWNSLOPE FORMING OVER
FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN...COULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. MINS WILL
RANGE FM LOWER 30S IN THE CLEARING AREAS TO UPR 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON ALL NIGHT.

FINALLY...SEEMS THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE N-NE WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF
MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...COULD GET GUSTY. GEM-REGIONAL INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 925MB STARTING THE EVENING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND
ONLY DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF
QUESTION TO HAVE 30-40 MPH GUSTS FOR A TIME. NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY KIND OF WIND HEADLINES ON LAND...BUT THE COMBO OF STRONGER
WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES UP ABOVE 8FT ON LK SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE HIGH
WATER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION. MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HIGHLIGHTED IT IN THE EHWO
GRAPHICS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR WHITEFISH POINT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING OVER
CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 200701
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 200701
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
AN UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THESE RIDGES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW THE LOWERING INVERSION (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW). THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY (40S)
WITH THE LIGHT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH
STARTING TO DEPART THE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE SOME
INTERIOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND
TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 40S TO MID
50S)...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER THE WEST WHERE THE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLIER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CONSISTENT.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP IT FROM SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
CWA.

BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW HIGH WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX INTO
THE WARM AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS AROUND 14C)...BUT CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE MIXING TO AROUND 925MB WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRUSHING THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AND SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 200627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
227 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF










000
FXUS63 KMQT 200627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
227 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KIWD
THIS MORNING...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AT KSAW AS WINDS
TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF









000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 192255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 192020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 192020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AS OPPOSED TO LAST WEEKS MOSTLY GLOOMY WET WEATHER...MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. IT`S LIKELY MANY
AREAS WON`T SEE ANY PCPN TUE THRU SUN. INITIALLY...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MON. WAVE WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THRU THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEFORE
DRIFTING NE LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
SO THAT A ZONE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES INTO NRN QUEBEC DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD...SUGGESTING A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.
SO...AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROF REACHING THE W COAST
MON WILL SHIFT E DURING THE WEEK...BUT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS
IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE/POSITIVE ANOMALIES. SYSTEM MAY STILL GENERATE
A FEW SHRA IN THE UPPER LAKES THU. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN WHETHER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN A WARMER W TO SW OR SHIFT TO THE NW TO BRING A RETURN TO
COLDER CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING MON NIGHT....PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SHIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND EXTENDING TO HUDSON BAY. AT THE
SFC...ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SSW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUE...BRINGING LARGER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. APPROACH OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOWERING
INVERSION/DIMINISHING DEEP MOISTURE THRU THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...
INVERSION BASE WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 3KFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2 TO -3C WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN
DURING THE NIGHT AS THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF WATER TEMPS NEAR
10C ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OPEN WATER TEMPS ARE IN
THE 6-8C RANGE. FURTHER LIMITING PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE DEEP LAYER
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE. ANY DAYTIME AIDED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING MON EVENING...AND AS WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY...ONLY
NCNTRL UPPER MI...AIDED BY UPSLOPE...WILL HAVE ANY CHC OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW IN
THE SCHC/LOW CHC RANGE. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT...LEAVING
TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER MUCH HIGHER THAN -10C...POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD WILL BE VERY LOW...SO ONLY -SHRA WILL BE
MENTIONED IN FCST.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUE...BUT MOST SLOWLY OVER THE CNTRL AS
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A STRATOCU DECK LONGER.

TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER 35-55 PCT OF NORMAL...WENT WITH MIN TEMPS AT OR
BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE. 20S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE INTERIOR.
A WARMER...SUNNY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON WED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL AS MIXING TO AROUND 900MB ON
FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE LWR 50S E AND
INTO THE UPPER 50S W.

TROF THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST LATE MON WILL REACH THE
UPPER LAKES THU...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW ENERGY IN THE TROF SPLITTING WITH ONE PIECE
SETTLING SE THRU THE PLAINS AND THE OTHER PIECE LIFTING TO HUDSON
BAY. WITH SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...ONLY SCHC POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER WRN UPPER MI THU.

A WARM DAY FOR LATE OCT SHOULD FOLLOW FOR FRI AS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRI HAS THE BEST SHOT OF BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER SW FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 60F
FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRI.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROFFING
ARRIVING ALONG THE W COAST FRI...WHICH HELPS MAINTAIN MORE
RIDGING/WARMER CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC HAVE THIS TROF FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER
W RIDGE AXIS WHICH THEN ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO DIVE MORE TO THE SE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z RUNS
DIDN`T HELP CLARIFY THE ISSUE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE ECMWF MAY BE
A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLING INTO THE UPPER LAKES. IN ANY
EVENT...WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA...PCPN POTENTIAL
LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST...AND FOR NOW...FCST WILL REFLECT MODEST
COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191923
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 191923
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT ACROSS THE E THIRD OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A THICK LAYER OF IFR CEILING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A TREND
SIMILAR TO THE HRRR FOR TIMING...AS IT/S HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP SO FAR. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS N
ONTARIO AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND N MANITOBA. SNOW WILL NOT BE THE
LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH...IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES FALL TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS IS
DISPUTE THE RETURN OF NNW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING OVERHEAD...MOVING FROM THE W THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY
TO THE E HALF 06-12Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW 40S.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
THROUGH MANITOBA AND W MN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SLOWLY INVADE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS....ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
N-NNW FLOW AT 500MB. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE NEAR SFC N-NNW WINDS
REMAINING ON MONDAY...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
850MB...AND COOL 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1C...WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T
VALUES...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR STILL AROUND 7C. TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB
MUCH PAST THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MANITOBA AND W MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS
ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY
N GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR. A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS E LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS QUEBEC. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY...AS LAKE SUPERIOR GETS STUCK BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA...AND ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 191733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL SLOWLY FALL TO MVFR AND EVEN POSSIBLY
IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE NW FLOW...AND AS WHAT HAS ALREADY
BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO...PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT SAW AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...KEPT THEM AT MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. COOL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 191140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR MOST OF THE TIME...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW THIS AFTN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH THE RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES. SOME LGT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WELL. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 191140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FOR MOST OF THE TIME...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT MAINLY KCMX AND KSAW THIS AFTN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH THE RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE IN LOW-LEVELS
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AT ALL
THE TAF SITES. SOME LGT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WELL. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 190814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 190814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...

WV LOOP AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN MANITOBA AND A SECONDARY WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 IS DRIVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. DRY AIR SEEN ON 00Z SOUNDING FM KINL IS LIMITING SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE RAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FM NORTHERN MO TO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. SFC
RIDGE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT
THUS FAR IN THE FALL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A LOT OF 20S AND EVEN
LOWER 30S ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN. PROCESS MAY TAKE A WHILE
THOUGH AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND THE STRONGER
FORCING TO GENERATE LIFT/SATURATION STAYS MAINLY NORTH. HOWEVER
THERE IS GOOD SIGNAL THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMIZING H85-H75
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT LAYER AND ABOVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THEN OVER
THE NCNTRL AND EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM/GEM-REGIONAL TO CREATE POPS/WX/QPF. NCEP WRF-ARW
AND NMM APPEARED OVERDONE WITH QPF...ESPECIALLY 15Z-21Z...GIVEN THE
INITIAL EXTENT OF DRY AIR. BASED ON SHARP DRYING ALREADY APPEARING
UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THINK
THERE WILL BE CLEARING AFT 21Z IN THE WEST CWA. MAY SEE HIGHS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO MID 50S THERE BUT OTHERWISE...A CHILLY START WITH INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FOR OTHER AREAS IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES THIS AFTN.

INTO TONIGHT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THE SECONDARY WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG MORE SOUTHEAST OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. RESULT IS SFC LOW TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEAST LK SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. ADDITIONAL LARGER SCALE
FORCING SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING FOR EAST CWA AS WELL. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CWA...ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN LOW-LEVELS AS SFC LOW CROSSES LK SUPERIOR
THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LGT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN CWA. POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY. UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND
900-850MB AND IT REALLY IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY LAKE PROCESSES IN
THAT LAYER YET SINCE TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION ARE ONLY TO AROUND 0C
BY 12Z LEADING TO DELTA T/S BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS ACROSS CWA WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT AS
READINGS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH WINDS STAYING BLO
30 KTS. PRIMARY PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS TO 25 KTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW DROPPING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR. ONCE THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY
AGAIN REACH 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. BEYOND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 190659
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 190659
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AT 12Z MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. WHILE MUCH OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN U.P.). THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT UNTIL DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL FOCUS THE BEST POPS (HIGH END SLIGHTS AND LOW
END CHANCES) ON MONDAY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. SINCE DELTA-T VALUES WILL ONLY BE 8...ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ON MONDAY WITH
CLOUD TEMPS ONLY REACHING -2C AND WETBULB0 VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE
1.5KFT. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO...EXPECT A TRANSITION
TO UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY THAT WIND DIRECTION (PRIMARILY OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P.). ALTHOUGH WETBULB0 HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME SNOW MIXING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P....THERE WILL BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD AND WILL STICK WITH RAIN. SINCE INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWERING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE
POPS AND HAVE THEM DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT
THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRYING FROM THE HIGH REALLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS HIGH WILL THEN LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY (MID 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA...EXPECT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND
LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK LOW DOES
APPEAR TO NEAR THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 190545
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF









000
FXUS63 KMQT 190545
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE BULK OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EVIDENT BY THE SCT-CLEAR SKY OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND
TO THE W. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE...WITH A TRACE OR LESS
STICKING TO THE GROUND /GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/.

HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
WILL BE COOL TEMPS...WHICH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER /EXITING LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS E AND INVADING HIGH CLOUDS W/...COULD FALL INTO THE
LOW 20S INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. PW VALUES OF 40-50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL BE THE RULE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY.
AT THAT POINT THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF
THE SW FOR THE W FOURTH OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 3-4C...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE IN ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH EXITS
TO THE SE. THE BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONGER WAVE AND SFC LOW NEAR
FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SUN NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA ON MON.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
THE ERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MONDAY IN UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z WED THAT AFFECTS THE AREA WHICH GETS FLATTENED A BIT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE TOP
OF IT ON THU. THIS PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z FRI AND 12Z SAT. THIS WILL STILL MEAN A DRY FORECAST
THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. AREA REMAINS UNDER
DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE
EAST. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NW WILL BRING INCREASING RH AN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...BUT BEFORE THE PCPN CAN FALL WILL NEED
TO OVERCOME DRY LAYER. THIS WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME...SO HAVE HELD
OFF PCPN UNTIL 20Z AT KCMX AND 21Z AT KSAW. AT KIWD...AS BETTER
FORCING TO EXIST FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PCPN
OUT THERE WITH ONLY INCREASED CLOUDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AT KSAW AROUND 0Z AND LATER...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS COULD APPROACH MVFR LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE DURING THE
EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND REMAIN LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SINK TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE AS A LOW ACROSS MANITOBA
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS
ACROSS LAKE HURON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS MANITOBA EARLY MONDAY TO BUILD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
THROUGH HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH A TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF








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