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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172357
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
757 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK 500MB LOW OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH S OF THE LOW OVER NRN MN. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
LAST DAY ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE SFC LOW HAS FILLED TO 1021MB AND
IS JUST S OF THE CWA WHILE THE 850MB LOW IS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SOME DEFORMATION FORCING LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING
BAND OVER THE NERN ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED NE OF THE CWA...LEAVING SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR.

DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
WLY...LEADING TO UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W /AND
SOMEWHAT THE NE/. DRIER AIR AND DAYTIME MIXING FRI MORNING WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR W TO THE MID
20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON MODERATE RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS UPPER MI. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A
TROUGH OVER QUEBEC...WILL DOMINATE THE INITIAL PERIOD OF WEATHER
ACROSS UPPER MI. SUBSTANTIAL DRYING BEHIND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM TODAYS SYSTEM WILL HAVE CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FAIRLY
COLD CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS AND FOLLOWING
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN LATE IN APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT COOLING ACROSS THE WEST.

SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285 TO 295K LAYERS WILL BE
ONGOING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LAG SOMEWHAT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH A LOW-LEVEL LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS SURGING INTO THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS
THREAT SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION.

BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM H8 TO H7. THE
COMBINATION PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 INCHES/220 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF IS AROUND 0.5 INCHES...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE PRODUCING UP TO 1 INCH OF QPF. THIS BRINGS UP SOME
HYDRO CONCERNS...WHICH IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
ONTARIO SATURDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING SE ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT...AND SHOULD GAIN MORE
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS THE EAST HALF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...WHILE ALL MODELS STALL THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THERE THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT MOST PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY QUIET BY
MONDAY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK SE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. A
DEEP TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE WAKE OF WEAKENING LOW PRES
MOVING THRU THE UPPER LAKES. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR/DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN WORKING TO RAISE CIGS UPSTREAM IN NE MN THIS AFTN. THESE HIGHER
CIGS HAVE APPEARED NOW AT KIWD...AND IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT KIWD THRU THE NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT...BUT WITH TRAJECTORIES MORE FROM THE
N RATHER THAN THE W WHERE IT IS MUCH DRIER...MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER
THRU THE NIGHT. AT KCMX...UPSLOPE W WIND HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED...
BRINGING A RETURN OF LIFR CIGS AFTER BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...LIFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO IFR IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS...AND THEN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. MIGHT BE SOME -DZ/-FZDZ THIS
EVENING IN INITIALLY VERY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED. AT KSAW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. ALL
TERMINALS WILL TREND TO VFR FRI AS CLOUDS EITHER SCATTER OUT OR
CLOUD BASES RISE UNDER MID APR DAYTIME HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WINDS STAYING BELOW 20 KTS INTO SATURDAY...BUT EAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KTS BY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE /LOW TO MID
50S/ ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERSISTENT MELTING
SHOULD OCCUR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR FREEZING EACH
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON THE RIVERS
COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND
ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN
RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 172040
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK 500MB LOW OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH S OF THE LOW OVER NRN MN. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
LAST DAY ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE SFC LOW HAS FILLED TO 1021MB AND
IS JUST S OF THE CWA WHILE THE 850MB LOW IS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SOME DEFORMATION FORCING LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING
BAND OVER THE NERN ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED NE OF THE CWA...LEAVING SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR.

DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
WLY...LEADING TO UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W /AND
SOMEWHAT THE NE/. DRIER AIR AND DAYTIME MIXING FRI MORNING WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR W TO THE MID
20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON MODERATE RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS UPPER MI. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A
TROUGH OVER QUEBEC...WILL DOMINATE THE INITIAL PERIOD OF WEATHER
ACROSS UPPER MI. SUBSTANTIAL DRYING BEHIND THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM TODAYS SYSTEM WILL HAVE CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FAIRLY
COLD CONDITIONS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS AND FOLLOWING
THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH PRODUCES LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN LATE IN APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT COOLING ACROSS THE WEST.

SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285 TO 295K LAYERS WILL BE
ONGOING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LAG SOMEWHAT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH A LOW-LEVEL LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS SURGING INTO THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS
THREAT SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION.

BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM H8 TO H7. THE
COMBINATION PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 INCHES/220 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF IS AROUND 0.5 INCHES...WITH
SOME GUIDANCE PRODUCING UP TO 1 INCH OF QPF. THIS BRINGS UP SOME
HYDRO CONCERNS...WHICH IS ADDRESSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
ONTARIO SATURDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING SE ACROSS
THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS FRONT...AND SHOULD GAIN MORE
MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS THE EAST HALF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...WHILE ALL MODELS STALL THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN FARTHER NORTH...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THERE THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT MOST PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY QUIET BY
MONDAY. A TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK SE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. A
DEEP TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING AND DRIER AIR IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ON FRI. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SOME FZDZ AT CMX AND POSSIBLE IWD...BUT WAS NOT AS CONFIDENT AT
IWD SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WINDS STAYING BELOW 20 KTS INTO SATURDAY...BUT EAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KTS BY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MI HAS REPLENISHED
SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN NOW HAS 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE /LOW TO MID
50S/ ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PERSISTENT MELTING
SHOULD OCCUR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR FREEZING EACH
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONCERNS OF RAPID MELTING.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY AND THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HIGHER RIVER FLOWS ARE EXPECTED. THOUGH WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...REMAINING ICE ON THE RIVERS
COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND
ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN
RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 171938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WEAK 500MB LOW OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH S OF THE LOW OVER NRN MN. THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE
LAST DAY ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE SFC LOW HAS FILLED TO 1021MB AND
IS JUST S OF THE CWA WHILE THE 850MB LOW IS OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SOME DEFORMATION FORCING LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING
BAND OVER THE NERN ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. A MAJORITY
OF THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED NE OF THE CWA...LEAVING SOME
FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR.

DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
WLY...LEADING TO UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W /AND
SOMEWHAT THE NE/. DRIER AIR AND DAYTIME MIXING FRI MORNING WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR W TO THE MID
20S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES. HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 40S SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR  PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SOUNDINSGS SHOW MOISTURE AT OR BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER
40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES FRI WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMNT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHRTWV
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLING THROUGH UPPER MI
SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE JUST AT THE ONSET. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH GIVEN
PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NRN WI KEEPING PCPN POTENTIAL INTO
THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDING...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING AND DRIER AIR IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ON FRI. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SOME FZDZ AT CMX AND POSSIBLE IWD...BUT WAS NOT AS CONFIDENT AT
IWD SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WINDS STAYING BELOW 20 KTS INTO SATURDAY...BUT EAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KTS BY
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 171753
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

COMPLICATED WINTER STORM EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING
SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHWEST WI WITH SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LA
CROSSE WI. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. WV
LOOP INDICATES DECENT AREA OF CLOUD TOP COOLING IS FORMING LAST 2
HOURS OVER NCNTRL WI. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES RIBBON OF HIGHER
ECHOES NOW LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE A GAP HAS
DEVELOPED IN SNOW TO THE SOUTH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN HALF
OF CWA. 10SM VSBY AT 4 AM AT KSAW/KESC/KISQ/KNMM. INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES OVER NCNTRL WI AND NOW INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
ARE TIED TO THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA SEEN ON THE WV/IR
SATELLITE. HEAVY SNOW IS NOT WIDESPREAD THOUGH BASED ON LOOK OF
RADAR AND SFC OBS. BASICALLY SEEING POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN
WIDESPERAD LGT SNOW. STEEPER LAPSE RATES H7-H5 AND ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT H925 IS LIKELY LEADING TO THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW.

PRIMARY AREA OF SNOW TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE PROBABLY DOES NOT GET
IN HERE UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING. ENVISION A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THIS SWINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. EAST WINDS MAY HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW SO HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS OF POSSIBLY UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
AREAS OVER EAST HALF MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL LATE
MORNING AS INITIAL SNOW DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL FGEN IS TO THE NORTH AND
BEST H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION/WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H925 AND LARGER
SCALE FORCING FM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALL REMAIN TO THE WEST.
SINCE MINIMAL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM HERE ON...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANX
THE ADVY FOR ALGER AND DELTA. CLOSE CALL FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT
PROXIMITY OF HEAVIER BATCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING ADVY GOING THERE...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE SNOW AT ALL SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTN.

WEST HALF WARNINGS WILL STAY IN TACT...FOR NOW. THIS WAS TOUGH CALL
FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS HEAVY SNOW MAY STAY MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN
COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE ONLY LGT SNOW...IF ANYTHING...IS
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS. WAS GOING TO DROP DICKINSON TO
ADVY INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA OF SNOW
COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WILL LEAVE THAT WARNING GOING FOR NOW.
COORD WITH WFO GRB ON HEADLINES ALONG WI BORDER.

AND FOR TONIGHT....KEPT RISK OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR UPSLOPE
AREAS OF NW AND EVENING EASTERN CWA. PRETTY LOW RISK AS IT LOOKS NOW
THOUGH. POSSIBLE FLURRIES AS WELL. MOISTURE LEFT OVER IS QUITE
SHALLOW WITH DRYING OCCURRING ABOVE 925MB. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT PROBABLY WILL HELP KEEP LOW-LEVELS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR  PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SOUNDINSGS SHOW MOISTURE AT OR BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER
40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES FRI WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMNT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHRTWV
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLING THROUGH UPPER MI
SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE JUST AT THE ONSET. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH GIVEN
PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NRN WI KEEPING PCPN POTENTIAL INTO
THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDING...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING AND DRIER AIR IMPROVE
CONDITIONS ON FRI. ALSO...WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT...LEADING
TO SOME FZDZ AT CMX AND POSSIBLE IWD...BUT WAS NOT AS CONFIDENT AT
IWD SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN EAST WINDS TO
30 KTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS STAYING BLO 20
KTS INTO SATURDAY...BUT EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS
DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS BY SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...VOSS









000
FXUS63 KMQT 171157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
757 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

COMPLICATED WINTER STORM EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING
SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHWEST WI WITH SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LA
CROSSE WI. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. WV
LOOP INDICATES DECENT AREA OF CLOUD TOP COOLING IS FORMING LAST 2
HOURS OVER NCNTRL WI. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES RIBBON OF HIGHER
ECHOES NOW LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE A GAP HAS
DEVELOPED IN SNOW TO THE SOUTH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN HALF
OF CWA. 10SM VSBY AT 4 AM AT KSAW/KESC/KISQ/KNMM. INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES OVER NCNTRL WI AND NOW INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
ARE TIED TO THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA SEEN ON THE WV/IR
SATELLITE. HEAVY SNOW IS NOT WIDESPREAD THOUGH BASED ON LOOK OF
RADAR AND SFC OBS. BASICALLY SEEING POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN
WIDESPERAD LGT SNOW. STEEPER LAPSE RATES H7-H5 AND ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT H925 IS LIKELY LEADING TO THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW.

PRIMARY AREA OF SNOW TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE PROBABLY DOES NOT GET
IN HERE UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING. ENVISION A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THIS SWINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. EAST WINDS MAY HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW SO HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS OF POSSIBLY UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
AREAS OVER EAST HALF MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL LATE
MORNING AS INITIAL SNOW DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL FGEN IS TO THE NORTH AND
BEST H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION/WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H925 AND LARGER
SCALE FORCING FM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALL REMAIN TO THE WEST.
SINCE MINIMAL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM HERE ON...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANX
THE ADVY FOR ALGER AND DELTA. CLOSE CALL FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT
PROXIMITY OF HEAVIER BATCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING ADVY GOING THERE...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE SNOW AT ALL SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTN.

WEST HALF WARNINGS WILL STAY IN TACT...FOR NOW. THIS WAS TOUGH CALL
FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS HEAVY SNOW MAY STAY MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN
COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE ONLY LGT SNOW...IF ANYTHING...IS
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS. WAS GOING TO DROP DICKINSON TO
ADVY INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA OF SNOW
COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WILL LEAVE THAT WARNING GOING FOR NOW.
COORD WITH WFO GRB ON HEADLINES ALONG WI BORDER.

AND FOR TONIGHT....KEPT RISK OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR UPSLOPE
AREAS OF NW AND EVENING EASTERN CWA. PRETTY LOW RISK AS IT LOOKS NOW
THOUGH. POSSIBLE FLURRIES AS WELL. MOISTURE LEFT OVER IS QUITE
SHALLOW WITH DRYING OCCURRING ABOVE 925MB. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT PROBABLY WILL HELP KEEP LOW-LEVELS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR  PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SOUNDINSGS SHOW MOISTURE AT OR BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER
40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES FRI WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMNT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHRTWV
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLING THROUGH UPPER MI
SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE JUST AT THE ONSET. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH GIVEN
PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NRN WI KEEPING PCPN POTENTIAL INTO
THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDING...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

SNOW...MDT TO HVY AT TIMES...WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW
WILL END AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN. MOST PERSISTENT LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KCMX...THOUGH VARIABLE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT KIWD AND KSAW THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...FIRST AT
KIWD AND KSAW AND BY EARLY AFTN AS KCMX. EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS LATER
TODAY...EXPECT IFR OR LOWER MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KCMX WITH PERSISTING UPSLOPE
FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN EAST WINDS TO
30 KTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WINDS STAYING BLO 20
KTS INTO SATURDAY...BUT EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS LATER SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS
DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS BY SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...VOSS










000
FXUS63 KMQT 170922
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

COMPLICATED WINTER STORM EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING
SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHWEST WI WITH SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LA
CROSSE WI. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. WV
LOOP INDICATES DECENT AREA OF CLOUD TOP COOLING IS FORMING LAST 2
HOURS OVER NCNTRL WI. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES RIBBON OF HIGHER
ECHOES NOW LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE A GAP HAS
DEVELOPED IN SNOW TO THE SOUTH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN HALF
OF CWA. 10SM VSBY AT 4 AM AT KSAW/KESC/KISQ/KNMM. INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES OVER NCNTRL WI AND NOW INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
ARE TIED TO THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA SEEN ON THE WV/IR
SATELLITE. HEAVY SNOW IS NOT WIDESPREAD THOUGH BASED ON LOOK OF
RADAR AND SFC OBS. BASICALLY SEEING POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN
WIDESPERAD LGT SNOW. STEEPER LAPSE RATES H7-H5 AND ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT H925 IS LIKELY LEADING TO THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW.

PRIMARY AREA OF SNOW TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE PROBABLY DOES NOT GET
IN HERE UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING. ENVISION A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THIS SWINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. EAST WINDS MAY HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW SO HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS OF POSSIBLY UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
AREAS OVER EAST HALF MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL LATE
MORNING AS INITIAL SNOW DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL FGEN IS TO THE NORTH AND
BEST H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION/WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H925 AND LARGER
SCALE FORCING FM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALL REMAIN TO THE WEST.
SINCE MINIMAL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM HERE ON...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANX
THE ADVY FOR ALGER AND DELTA. CLOSE CALL FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT
PROXIMITY OF HEAVIER BATCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING ADVY GOING THERE...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE SNOW AT ALL SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTN.

WEST HALF WARNINGS WILL STAY IN TACT...FOR NOW. THIS WAS TOUGH CALL
FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS HEAVY SNOW MAY STAY MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN
COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE ONLY LGT SNOW...IF ANYTHING...IS
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS. WAS GOING TO DROP DICKINSON TO
ADVY INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA OF SNOW
COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WILL LEAVE THAT WARNING GOING FOR NOW.
COORD WITH WFO GRB ON HEADLINES ALONG WI BORDER.

AND FOR TONIGHT....KEPT RISK OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR UPSLOPE
AREAS OF NW AND EVENING EASTERN CWA. PRETTY LOW RISK AS IT LOOKS NOW
THOUGH. POSSIBLE FLURRIES AS WELL. MOISTURE LEFT OVER IS QUITE
SHALLOW WITH DRYING OCCURRING ABOVE 925MB. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT PROBABLY WILL HELP KEEP LOW-LEVELS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE
UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR  PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SOUNDINSGS SHOW MOISTURE AT OR BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER
40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR
COLD SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES FRI WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMNT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHRTWV
AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PULLING THROUGH UPPER MI
SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE JUST AT THE ONSET. MODELS
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND A HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH GIVEN
PWAT VALUES NEAR AN INCH. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NRN WI KEEPING PCPN POTENTIAL INTO
THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RIDING...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM NE IOWA TO THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...SNOW...MDT
TO HVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HRS. KIWD AND KCMX SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE PERSISTENT
HEAVIER SNOW. AT KIWD...THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR. HOWEVER...WITH A
DOWNSLOPE E TO SE WIND...ANY PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD DAYBREAK...A PREVAILING PERIOD OF
LIFR/HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY AT KIWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING NE. AT KCMX...LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERHAPS OCNL VLIFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE MORNING. KSAW WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR...SO SNOW WILL NOT BE PESISTENTLY AS HVY
AS AT THE WRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
WORK TO HOLD IFR CIGS IN PLACE THRU THE NIGHT EVEN IF SNOW
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH W TO E LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KTS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 170833
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

COMPLICATED WINTER STORM EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING
SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHWEST WI WITH SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LA
CROSSE WI. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. WV
LOOP INDICATES DECENT AREA OF CLOUD TOP COOLING IS FORMING LAST 2
HOURS OVER NCNTRL WI. REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES RIBBON OF HIGHER
ECHOES NOW LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE A GAP HAS
DEVELOPED IN SNOW TO THE SOUTH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN HALF
OF CWA. 10SM VSBY AT 4 AM AT KSAW/KESC/KISQ/KNMM. INCREASING RADAR
ECHOES OVER NCNTRL WI AND NOW INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
ARE TIED TO THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA SEEN ON THE WV/IR
SATELLITE. HEAVY SNOW IS NOT WIDESPREAD THOUGH BASED ON LOOK OF
RADAR AND SFC OBS. BASICALLY SEEING POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN
WIDESPERAD LGT SNOW. STEEPER LAPSE RATES H7-H5 AND ONGOING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT H925 IS LIKELY LEADING TO THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW.

PRIMARY AREA OF SNOW TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE PROBABLY DOES NOT GET
IN HERE UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING. ENVISION A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THIS SWINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE CNTRL
PORTIONS OF UPR MICHIGAN. EAST WINDS MAY HELP ENHANCE THE SNOW OVER
THE KEWEENAW SO HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS OF POSSIBLY UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
AREAS OVER EAST HALF MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL LATE
MORNING AS INITIAL SNOW DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL FGEN IS TO THE NORTH AND
BEST H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION/WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H925 AND LARGER
SCALE FORCING FM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALL REMAIN TO THE WEST.
SINCE MINIMAL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM HERE ON...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANX
THE ADVY FOR ALGER AND DELTA. CLOSE CALL FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY BUT
PROXIMITY OF HEAVIER BATCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
JUSTIFIES KEEPING ADVY GOING THERE...EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE SNOW AT ALL SINCE WEDNESDAY AFTN.

WEST HALF WARNINGS WILL STAY IN TACT...FOR NOW. THIS WAS TOUGH CALL
FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AS HEAVY SNOW MAY STAY MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN
COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE ONLY LGT SNOW...IF ANYTHING...IS
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS. WAS GOING TO DROP DICKINSON TO
ADVY INITIALLY...BUT WITH THE INCREASING DEFORMATION AREA OF SNOW
COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...WILL LEAVE THAT WARNING GOING FOR NOW.
COORD WITH WFO GRB ON HEADLINES ALONG WI BORDER.

AND FOR TONIGHT....KEPT RISK OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR UPSLOPE
AREAS OF NW AND EVENING EASTERN CWA. PRETTY LOW RISK AS IT LOOKS NOW
THOUGH. POSSIBLE FLURRIES AS WELL. MOISTURE LEFT OVER IS QUITE
SHALLOW WITH DRYING OCCURRING ABOVE 925MB. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT BUT PROBABLY WILL HELP KEEP LOW-LEVELS MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN
TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S
EAST. SOME PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE
-10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE
30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S S.
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU NIGHT WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED
QUICKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THIS SHRTWV
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDGG...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM NE IOWA TO THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...SNOW...MDT
TO HVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HRS. KIWD AND KCMX SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE PERSISTENT
HEAVIER SNOW. AT KIWD...THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR. HOWEVER...WITH A
DOWNSLOPE E TO SE WIND...ANY PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD DAYBREAK...A PREVAILING PERIOD OF
LIFR/HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY AT KIWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING NE. AT KCMX...LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERHAPS OCNL VLIFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE MORNING. KSAW WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR...SO SNOW WILL NOT BE PESISTENTLY AS HVY
AS AT THE WRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
WORK TO HOLD IFR CIGS IN PLACE THRU THE NIGHT EVEN IF SNOW
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH W TO E LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KTS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ006-012-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS











000
FXUS63 KMQT 170450
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1250 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BUSY SHORT TERM SHIFT AS NEW MODEL RUNS LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDERS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THU.

WITH LITTLE LASTING UPPER JET SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UP THE W SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W TONIGHT INTO THU...BUT WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT
PRECIP EVEN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS FILLS.

CURRENTLY...MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SWRN CWA...WHICH IS
BEING FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID LEVEL /600-700MB/ FGEN.
THIS PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FORCING STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
INTO SERN SD WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. DRIER AIR
AND LIMITED FORCING IS LEAVING AREAS S OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL AND
SRN WI DRY /OR AT LEAST MOSTLY DRY/. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO
WCENTRAL WI BY 12Z THU...THE BEST BAND OF LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRECIP
MINIMUM MOVES N BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CWA /MOSTLY THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA/. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE SCENTRAL CWA THU
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WRN CWA...BUT A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WILL BE FORCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 800-700MB FGEN/DEFORMATION. OVERALL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST INCLUDED SLOWING DOWN THE ENDING OF PRECIP THU AND
INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AND
INTO THU OVER THE ERN CWA. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP AMOUNTS ALL THAT
MUCH...BUT DID SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN CWA. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED THE HEADLINES
TO 18Z THU.

MIXED PRECIP BECOMES AN ISSUE THU AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE...BUT THIS HAPPENS TOWARD THE END OF PRECIP SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN
TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S
EAST. SOME PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE
-10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE
30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S S.
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU NIGHT WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED
QUICKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THIS SHRTWV
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDGG...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM NE IOWA TO THE UPPER LAKES TODAY...SNOW...MDT
TO HVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HRS. KIWD AND KCMX SHOULD BE UNDER THE MORE PERSISTENT
HEAVIER SNOW. AT KIWD...THIS WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR. HOWEVER...WITH A
DOWNSLOPE E TO SE WIND...ANY PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD DAYBREAK...A PREVAILING PERIOD OF
LIFR/HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY AT KIWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING NE. AT KCMX...LIFR CONDITIONS
AND PERHAPS OCNL VLIFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE MORNING. KSAW WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR...SO SNOW WILL NOT BE PESISTENTLY AS HVY
AS AT THE WRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY
WORK TO HOLD IFR CIGS IN PLACE THRU THE NIGHT EVEN IF SNOW
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH W TO E LATE THIS MORNING/AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP AT KIWD THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KTS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ006-012-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 162352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BUSY SHORT TERM SHIFT AS NEW MODEL RUNS LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDERS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THU.

WITH LITTLE LASTING UPPER JET SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UP THE W SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W TONIGHT INTO THU...BUT WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT
PRECIP EVEN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS FILLS.

CURRENTLY...MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SWRN CWA...WHICH IS
BEING FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID LEVEL /600-700MB/ FGEN.
THIS PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FORCING STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
INTO SERN SD WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. DRIER AIR
AND LIMITED FORCING IS LEAVING AREAS S OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL AND
SRN WI DRY /OR AT LEAST MOSTLY DRY/. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO
WCENTRAL WI BY 12Z THU...THE BEST BAND OF LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRECIP
MINIMUM MOVES N BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CWA /MOSTLY THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA/. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE SCENTRAL CWA THU
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WRN CWA...BUT A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WILL BE FORCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 800-700MB FGEN/DEFORMATION. OVERALL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST INCLUDED SLOWING DOWN THE ENDING OF PRECIP THU AND
INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AND
INTO THU OVER THE ERN CWA. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP AMOUNTS ALL THAT
MUCH...BUT DID SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN CWA. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED THE HEADLINES
TO 18Z THU.

MIXED PRECIP BECOMES AN ISSUE THU AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE...BUT THIS HAPPENS TOWARD THE END OF PRECIP SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN
TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S
EAST. SOME PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE
-10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE
30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S S.
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU NIGHT WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED
QUICKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THIS SHRTWV
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDGG...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LOW PRES MOVING FROM NW IOWA THIS EVENING TO THE UPPER LAKES THU
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW...MDT TO HVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. KIWD AND KCMX WILL BE UNDER THE MORE
PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW THRU THE NIGHT. AT KIWD...THIS WILL RESULT
IN IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. A
PREVAILING PERIOD OF LIFR/HEAVIER SNOW APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SWINGING NE. AT KCMX...LIFR CONDITIONS AND OCNL VLIFR
WILL BE THE RULE INTO THU MORNING. KSAW WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF DRIER
AIR...SO SNOW WILL NOT BE AS HVY AS AT THE WRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...
UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY WORK TO HOLD IFR CIGS IN PLACE THRU
THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSAW THU MORNING
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH W TO E LATE THU MORNING/AFTN WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGHER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW
WHERE WIND WILL TAKE ON A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KTS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ006-012-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 162036
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
436 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BUSY SHORT TERM SHIFT AS NEW MODEL RUNS LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDERS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THU.

WITH LITTLE LASTING UPPER JET SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UP THE W SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W TONIGHT INTO THU...BUT WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT
PRECIP EVEN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS FILLS.

CURRENTLY...MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SWRN CWA...WHICH IS
BEING FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID LEVEL /600-700MB/ FGEN.
THIS PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FORCING STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
INTO SERN SD WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. DRIER AIR
AND LIMITED FORCING IS LEAVING AREAS S OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL AND
SRN WI DRY /OR AT LEAST MOSTLY DRY/. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO
WCENTRAL WI BY 12Z THU...THE BEST BAND OF LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRECIP
MINIMUM MOVES N BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CWA /MOSTLY THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA/. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE SCENTRAL CWA THU
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WRN CWA...BUT A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WILL BE FORCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 800-700MB FGEN/DEFORMATION. OVERALL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST INCLUDED SLOWING DOWN THE ENDING OF PRECIP THU AND
INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AND
INTO THU OVER THE ERN CWA. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP AMOUNTS ALL THAT
MUCH...BUT DID SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN CWA. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED THE HEADLINES
TO 18Z THU.

MIXED PRECIP BECOMES AN ISSUE THU AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE...BUT THIS HAPPENS TOWARD THE END OF PRECIP SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MIN
TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPPER TEENS INTERIOR WEST TO THE UPPER 20S
EAST. SOME PATCHY FZDZ MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER WNW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS
INTO FRI MORNING AS SNDGS SHOW MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE
-10C ISOTHERM FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU
NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL
TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C.
ALTHOUGH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME
FLURRIES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE
30S NORTH WITH A COLD WIND OFF ICY LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOWER 40S S.
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR COLD
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY WEST) WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU NIGHT WILL
REACH NRN ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED
QUICKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THIS SHRTWV
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE SUN AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON INTO WED...ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER TO MID
50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SHOULD BE GENERALLY A DRIER
PERIOD UNDER INFLUENCE OF RDGG...BUT SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. USED CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EXTENT/TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.

KIWD...EXPECTED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVEMENT START THURSDAY MORNING.

KCMX...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND WILL STAY POOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KSAW...HAVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS DRY AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER
BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KTS FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW AND THUS LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN RIVER
LEVELS. DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD ALSO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.30 TO 1.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT
RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ006-012-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 161915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
315 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

BUSY SHORT TERM SHIFT AS NEW MODEL RUNS LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDERS THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THU.

WITH LITTLE LASTING UPPER JET SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE CWA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CWA ON THU. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES UP THE W SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE W TONIGHT INTO THU...BUT WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT
PRECIP EVEN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS FILLS.

CURRENTLY...MODERATE SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE SWRN CWA...WHICH IS
BEING FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID LEVEL /600-700MB/ FGEN.
THIS PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED FORCING STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
INTO SERN SD WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. DRIER AIR
AND LIMITED FORCING IS LEAVING AREAS S OF THIS LINE OVER CENTRAL AND
SRN WI DRY /OR AT LEAST MOSTLY DRY/. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO
WCENTRAL WI BY 12Z THU...THE BEST BAND OF LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL SLIDE
INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRECIP
MINIMUM MOVES N BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND
ERN CWA /MOSTLY THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA/. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAKENING SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE SCENTRAL CWA THU
MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WRN CWA...BUT A
ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CWA WILL BE FORCED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 800-700MB FGEN/DEFORMATION. OVERALL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST INCLUDED SLOWING DOWN THE ENDING OF PRECIP THU AND
INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF DRYING OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AND
INTO THU OVER THE ERN CWA. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP AMOUNTS ALL THAT
MUCH...BUT DID SHARPEN UP THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN CWA. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED THE HEADLINES
TO 18Z THU.

MIXED PRECIP BECOMES AN ISSUE THU AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE...BUT THIS HAPPENS TOWARD THE END OF PRECIP SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. USED CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EXTENT/TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.

KIWD...EXPECTED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVEMENT START THURSDAY MORNING.

KCMX...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND WILL STAY POOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KSAW...HAVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS DRY AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER
BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ006-012-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 161744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

IN A NUTSHELL...18Z TUE AND 00Z WED MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST WITH
HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF/SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM MAKING WARNING HEADLINES
OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN NOT AS CERTAIN.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A MULTIPLE WAVE SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING
SFC LOW IS LEADING TO LATE DEVELOPING TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ALL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW FARTHER WEST. TREND
DOES MAKE SOME SENSE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS
IS EVENTUALLY CAUGHT BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE /REALLY IS NOW JUST
SHOWING UP/ IN THE SAME STREAM THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVR
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL DROP CLOSE ENOUGH SOUTH TO PHASE WITH
THESE LEADING WAVES. SFC LOW THAT WAS 24 HR AGO FORECAST BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO BE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY IS
NOW OVR CNTRL WI AT THAT SAME TIME. NET RESULT IS SLOWER SYSTEM
MOVEMENT ACROSS UPPER LAKES...WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND DELAY OF HEAVIER SNOW MAKING IT BACK INTO CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL APPEARS FAR WEST AND
ACROSS KEWEENAW WILL BE IN H8-H7 FGEN/DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MINIMAL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY. SNOW TOTALS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE MUDDLED HEADING INTO
THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY MARQUETTE AND
DICKINSON.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPING SNOW BAND ALONG H8 FGEN FM CNTRL MN
INTO WCNTRL WI LIFTS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
WI BORDER AND THIS AFTN OVER THE NORTH CWA. COULD EVEN BE LATE AFTN
FOR FAR EASTERN CWA. PROBABLY WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS
TRANSIENT BAND OF SNOW. TROUBLE IS THAT ONCE THIS BAND OF SNOW
FORCED BY THE MID-LEVEL FGEN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTS
THROUGH...THERE IS NOTHING TO FILL IN BEHIND IT AS LARGER SCALE
FORCING IS NOW DELAYED. GEM SHOWED THIS LAST NIGHT AND WAS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK IT APPEARS...AS NOW ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR
SCENARIO TONIGHT. THIS LULL REALLY AFFECTS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF CWA. SEEMS THAT WARNINGS FOR
MARQUETTE AND ESPECIALLY DICKINSON COULD BE TOUGHER TO VERIFY. AS
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING
THURSDAY...COULD RECEIVE A BURST OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS THE
FGEN AND LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINE. THOUGHT ABOUT CHANGING TO
ADVY FOR MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON BUT HAVE HARD TIME MAKING THAT
SIGNIFICANT OF CHANGE CONSIDERING THE EVENT HAS NOT STARTED YET.
INSTEAD WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND GET HANDLE ON
TRENDS ONCE THE SNOW FULLY DEVELOPS.

DID BEGIN THE TREND OF THE LULL IN THE SNOW BY DROPPING TO CHANCE
POPS THIS EVENING IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EAST HALF OF CWA...AND ALSO
IN ADDED THIS TO THE WORDING OF THE WSW STATEMENT. FEASIBLY COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE NOT MUCH IS GOING ON THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM MQT TO ESC AND TO THE EAST. PUSH OF HEAVIER SNOW DOES COMES
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT...SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
THURSDAY WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. JUST FOR
FUN THE 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED EVEN SLOWER WITH THE WHOLE SCENARIO...
NOT BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. USED CONSENSUS OF HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EXTENT/TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES.

KIWD...EXPECTED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
IMPROVEMENT START THURSDAY MORNING.

KCMX...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND WILL STAY POOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KSAW...HAVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS DRY AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IMPROVEMENT. ANOTHER
BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 161136
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

IN A NUTSHELL...18Z TUE AND 00Z WED MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST WITH
HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF/SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM MAKING WARNING HEADLINES
OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN NOT AS CERTAIN.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A MULTIPLE WAVE SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING
SFC LOW IS LEADING TO LATE DEVELOPING TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ALL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW FARTHER WEST. TREND
DOES MAKE SOME SENSE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS
IS EVENTUALLY CAUGHT BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE /REALLY IS NOW JUST
SHOWING UP/ IN THE SAME STREAM THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVR
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL DROP CLOSE ENOUGH SOUTH TO PHASE WITH
THESE LEADING WAVES. SFC LOW THAT WAS 24 HR AGO FORECAST BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO BE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY IS
NOW OVR CNTRL WI AT THAT SAME TIME. NET RESULT IS SLOWER SYSTEM
MOVEMENT ACROSS UPPER LAKES...WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND DELAY OF HEAVIER SNOW MAKING IT BACK INTO CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL APPEARS FAR WEST AND
ACROSS KEWEENAW WILL BE IN H8-H7 FGEN/DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MINIMAL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY. SNOW TOTALS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE MUDDLED HEADING INTO
THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY MARQUETTE AND
DICKINSON.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPING SNOW BAND ALONG H8 FGEN FM CNTRL MN
INTO WCNTRL WI LIFTS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
WI BORDER AND THIS AFTN OVER THE NORTH CWA. COULD EVEN BE LATE AFTN
FOR FAR EASTERN CWA. PROBABLY WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS
TRANSIENT BAND OF SNOW. TROUBLE IS THAT ONCE THIS BAND OF SNOW
FORCED BY THE MID-LEVEL FGEN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTS
THROUGH...THERE IS NOTHING TO FILL IN BEHIND IT AS LARGER SCALE
FORCING IS NOW DELAYED. GEM SHOWED THIS LAST NIGHT AND WAS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK IT APPEARS...AS NOW ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR
SCENARIO TONIGHT. THIS LULL REALLY AFFECTS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF CWA. SEEMS THAT WARNINGS FOR
MARQUETTE AND ESPECIALLY DICKINSON COULD BE TOUGHER TO VERIFY. AS
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING
THURSDAY...COULD RECEIVE A BURST OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS THE
FGEN AND LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINE. THOUGHT ABOUT CHANGING TO
ADVY FOR MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON BUT HAVE HARD TIME MAKING THAT
SIGNIFICANT OF CHANGE CONSIDERING THE EVENT HAS NOT STARTED YET.
INSTEAD WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND GET HANDLE ON
TRENDS ONCE THE SNOW FULLY DEVELOPS.

DID BEGIN THE TREND OF THE LULL IN THE SNOW BY DROPPING TO CHANCE
POPS THIS EVENING IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EAST HALF OF CWA...AND ALSO
IN ADDED THIS TO THE WORDING OF THE WSW STATEMENT. FEASIBLY COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE NOT MUCH IS GOING ON THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM MQT TO ESC AND TO THE EAST. PUSH OF HEAVIER SNOW DOES COMES
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT...SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
THURSDAY WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. JUST FOR
FUN THE 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED EVEN SLOWER WITH THE WHOLE SCENARIO...
NOT BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EARLY BUT THAT CHANGES BY AFTN AS SNOW OVER WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA LIFTS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. APPEARS THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE DELAYED THE IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF CIGS AND VSBY STAYING
LIFR TONIGHT WILL BE AT IWD AND CMX. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY AS THE WINTER STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ004-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ005.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
     11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON









000
FXUS63 KMQT 160927
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 526 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

IN A NUTSHELL...18Z TUE AND 00Z WED MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST WITH
HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF/SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM MAKING WARNING HEADLINES
OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN NOT AS CERTAIN.

TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A MULTIPLE WAVE SYSTEM WITH WEAKENING
SFC LOW IS LEADING TO LATE DEVELOPING TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ALL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW FARTHER WEST. TREND
DOES MAKE SOME SENSE AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS
IS EVENTUALLY CAUGHT BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE /REALLY IS NOW JUST
SHOWING UP/ IN THE SAME STREAM THAT IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVR
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL DROP CLOSE ENOUGH SOUTH TO PHASE WITH
THESE LEADING WAVES. SFC LOW THAT WAS 24 HR AGO FORECAST BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM TO BE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY IS
NOW OVR CNTRL WI AT THAT SAME TIME. NET RESULT IS SLOWER SYSTEM
MOVEMENT ACROSS UPPER LAKES...WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW...AND DELAY OF HEAVIER SNOW MAKING IT BACK INTO CNTRL
UPR MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL APPEARS FAR WEST AND
ACROSS KEWEENAW WILL BE IN H8-H7 FGEN/DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MINIMAL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY. SNOW TOTALS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE MUDDLED HEADING INTO
THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY MARQUETTE AND
DICKINSON.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT DEVELOPING SNOW BAND ALONG H8 FGEN FM CNTRL MN
INTO WCNTRL WI LIFTS SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
WI BORDER AND THIS AFTN OVER THE NORTH CWA. COULD EVEN BE LATE AFTN
FOR FAR EASTERN CWA. PROBABLY WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS
TRANSIENT BAND OF SNOW. TROUBLE IS THAT ONCE THIS BAND OF SNOW
FORCED BY THE MID-LEVEL FGEN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTS
THROUGH...THERE IS NOTHING TO FILL IN BEHIND IT AS LARGER SCALE
FORCING IS NOW DELAYED. GEM SHOWED THIS LAST NIGHT AND WAS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK IT APPEARS...AS NOW ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR
SCENARIO TONIGHT. THIS LULL REALLY AFFECTS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF CWA. SEEMS THAT WARNINGS FOR
MARQUETTE AND ESPECIALLY DICKINSON COULD BE TOUGHER TO VERIFY. AS
THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING
THURSDAY...COULD RECEIVE A BURST OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS THE
FGEN AND LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINE. THOUGHT ABOUT CHANGING TO
ADVY FOR MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON BUT HAVE HARD TIME MAKING THAT
SIGNIFICANT OF CHANGE CONSIDERING THE EVENT HAS NOT STARTED YET.
INSTEAD WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND GET HANDLE ON
TRENDS ONCE THE SNOW FULLY DEVELOPS.

DID BEGIN THE TREND OF THE LULL IN THE SNOW BY DROPPING TO CHANCE
POPS THIS EVENING IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EAST HALF OF CWA...AND ALSO
IN ADDED THIS TO THE WORDING OF THE WSW STATEMENT. FEASIBLY COULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS WHERE NOT MUCH IS GOING ON THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM MQT TO ESC AND TO THE EAST. PUSH OF HEAVIER SNOW DOES COMES
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT...SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
THURSDAY WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. JUST FOR
FUN THE 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED EVEN SLOWER WITH THE WHOLE SCENARIO...
NOT BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ004-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ005.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
     11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON









000
FXUS63 KMQT 160925
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH GALES FOR FAR WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING MORNING AS WINDS ARE
ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ004-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ005.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
     11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 160915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY...WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TREND...THE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI
AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 290K-295 ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...GREATEST OVER
THE NW HALF. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND PCPN WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY...IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
THERMAL TROF WITH 850/700 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/-15C. ALTHOUGH THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES...NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. FRI HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH WITH A
COLD WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI
NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL OVER THE AREA.
FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE NIGHT.

SAT INTO SUN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW THU WILL REACH NRN
ONTARIO SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GEM AND ECMWF REMAINED MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE
SHRTWV...DRAGGING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH UPPER MI FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. EXPECT
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE SAT NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE SUN
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S BY SUN AFTERNOON.

MON/TUE...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE NRN LAKES WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S WITH MIN READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
SO...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ON TRACK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ004-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ005.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
     11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     /5 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON









000
FXUS63 KMQT 160534
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BEGIN COLD/WINTRY AS SHORTWAVE
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BTWN DEPARTING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID APR AND WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY
MODERATE AS DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR LIFT TO
GREENLAND...AND PACIFIC AIR MAKES INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND SRN CANADA. HEADING DOWN THE ROAD...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE AROUND NORMAL...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BLO NORMAL DURING THE TEMP SWINGS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM GEM ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS THAT THE PATTERN
MAY BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WHICH WILL MEAN
RAINFALL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EVENTS. HOPEFULLY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE AVOIDED AS THE SNOWMELT SEASON RESUMES.

BEGINNING WED NIGHT...A HVY/WET SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS...MODELS THAT HAD MAX QPF AXIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S AND E. RESULT IS IMPROVING
MODEL AGREEMENT NOW ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SET UP. IT
APPEARS MAX QPF AXIS SHOULD RUN ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE HURON MTNS. THE NAM IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NW OF
THIS AXIS WHILE THE GEM REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC ARE DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
LAKES...BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER FROM
ERN MN E AND NE NTO UPPER MI BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO EASTWARD WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF BRIEF UPPER JET COUPLING
WITH LEFT EXIT OF JET SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOTED WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4G/KG AVBL AROUND
700-750MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH NEGATIVE
EPV/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOTED OVERTOP THE FGEN. FINALLY...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ADVECTING INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE
PCPN AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER BANDING OF
SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MDT/HVY PCPN AREA OR EVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW AT
TIMES...CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR SPRINGTIME HVY SNOW EVENTS.
ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL HINGE ON WHERE THESE
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SET UP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...LOCATIONS W OF KIMT/KMQT LINE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT...PROBABLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADVY ISSUED FOR NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES E MAY IN
FACT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. FINALLY...
EVEN THE FAR E COUNTIES OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO AN ADVY IF THE E TREND HOLDS UP IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS.

PCPN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY THU AND WILL LIKELY END. SFC HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THU NIGHT...AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER EXPANDING OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR
OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI
UNDER MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD EVEN DEVELOP. FRI HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S N WITH A CHILLY WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY
AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC IN LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW...THOUGH AGREEMENT IS
IMPROVING WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS. GEM IS STRONGER WITH WAVE AND
IS HEAVIER WITH THE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECWMF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM NOW. SOME -RA POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
W SAT AFTN...THEN SPREAD E SAT NIGHT/SUN. WITH WETTER TRENDS
NOTED...WILL TRENDING POPS UP TO CHC.

MON/TUE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TROF DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS WHILE TROF SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE/HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS
OF HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY VERIFIES BETTER. RESULT IS A COOLER
THAN GFS SCENARIO...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS. IF ANY
MINOR WAVES TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE ERN TROF...THERE MAY
BE SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN MON OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THEN AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW TO THE AREA. KIWD WILL SEE THE IMPACTS
FIRST...WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE BY MIDDAY IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CIGS TO LOWER DURING THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ004-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ005.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO
     11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON









000
FXUS63 KMQT 152346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BEGIN COLD/WINTRY AS SHORTWAVE
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BTWN DEPARTING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID APR AND WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY
MODERATE AS DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR LIFT TO
GREENLAND...AND PACIFIC AIR MAKES INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND SRN CANADA. HEADING DOWN THE ROAD...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE AROUND NORMAL...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BLO NORMAL DURING THE TEMP SWINGS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM GEM ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS THAT THE PATTERN
MAY BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WHICH WILL MEAN
RAINFALL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EVENTS. HOPEFULLY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE AVOIDED AS THE SNOWMELT SEASON RESUMES.

BEGINNING WED NIGHT...A HVY/WET SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS...MODELS THAT HAD MAX QPF AXIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S AND E. RESULT IS IMPROVING
MODEL AGREEMENT NOW ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SET UP. IT
APPEARS MAX QPF AXIS SHOULD RUN ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE HURON MTNS. THE NAM IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NW OF
THIS AXIS WHILE THE GEM REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC ARE DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
LAKES...BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER FROM
ERN MN E AND NE NTO UPPER MI BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO EASTWARD WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF BRIEF UPPER JET COUPLING
WITH LEFT EXIT OF JET SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOTED WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4G/KG AVBL AROUND
700-750MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH NEGATIVE
EPV/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOTED OVERTOP THE FGEN. FINALLY...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ADVECTING INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE
PCPN AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER BANDING OF
SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MDT/HVY PCPN AREA OR EVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW AT
TIMES...CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR SPRINGTIME HVY SNOW EVENTS.
ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL HINGE ON WHERE THESE
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SET UP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...LOCATIONS W OF KIMT/KMQT LINE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT...PROBABLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADVY ISSUED FOR NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES E MAY IN
FACT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. FINALLY...
EVEN THE FAR E COUNTIES OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO AN ADVY IF THE E TREND HOLDS UP IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS.

PCPN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY THU AND WILL LIKELY END. SFC HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THU NIGHT...AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER EXPANDING OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR
OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI
UNDER MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD EVEN DEVELOP. FRI HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S N WITH A CHILLY WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY
AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC IN LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW...THOUGH AGREEMENT IS
IMPROVING WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS. GEM IS STRONGER WITH WAVE AND
IS HEAVIER WITH THE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECWMF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM NOW. SOME -RA POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
W SAT AFTN...THEN SPREAD E SAT NIGHT/SUN. WITH WETTER TRENDS
NOTED...WILL TRENDING POPS UP TO CHC.

MON/TUE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TROF DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS WHILE TROF SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE/HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS
OF HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY VERIFIES BETTER. RESULT IS A COOLER
THAN GFS SCENARIO...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS. IF ANY
MINOR WAVES TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE ERN TROF...THERE MAY
BE SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN MON OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE U.P. WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING DIURNAL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
THE KSAW TAF SITE HAVE CLEARED OUT AS OF 00Z/15. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IWD WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE THE SNOWFALL AROUND 14Z...THEN
THE SNOW WILL SPREAD TO CMX AND KSAW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. HAVE TRENDED THE VISIBILITY LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HEAVIER SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO EACH OF
THE TAF SITES. IWD WAS KEPT A BIT LOWER THAN THE OTHER TAF SITES AS
THE HEAVIER SNOW WOULD APPROACH THAT AREA FIRST.
ADDITIONALLY...CEILING HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ004-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ005.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11
     AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT /10
     AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON









000
FXUS63 KMQT 152131
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINTER STORM
HEADLINES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. INSTABILITY ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED SOME
DIURNAL -SHSN ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC NW WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT DEVELOPS A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE
WED INTO WED NIGHT.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS FAR EAST TO 15 TO 20F RANGE FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR FAR WEST AND AREAS CLOSE TO BAY OF GREEN BAY. TEMPS MAY
CLIMB LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WAA LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE
FAR WEST LATE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST AND ASSOC DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z
THEN DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THEY LIFT THIS LOW ENE TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF 12Z MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER SE THAN 06Z RUNS WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW. MODELS INDICATE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SNOW SHIELD FM
CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW SHIELD WILL THEN SPREAD INTO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
UPR MICHIGAN WED AFTN ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED ON
285-290K SFCS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN FROM 15Z INTO WED EVENING. GFS
REMAINS QUICKEST OF 12Z MODELS WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST. THE
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM FALL SOMEWHERE BTWN THESE SOLNS. H7 MIXING
RATIOS IN 2.5-3 G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS 4-6 INCHES
OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF COUNTIES. IT/S POSSIBLE ACTUAL SNOW
AMOUNTS ON WED COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE
DAYTIME WHEN INSOLATION COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER
TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVIER BANDED SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH NEG EPV ABOVE
FAIRLY STRONG 7H FGEN FORCING SO THIS COULD ADD A FEW INCHES TO THE
4-6 INCH TOTALS RENDERED SOLELY FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

WITH ALL ABOVE FACTORS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE WATCHES OVER THE WEST HALF COUNTIES TO WARNINGS FROM
MQT-DICKINSON WESTWARD. GENERALLY STARTED WARNINGS ON WED FM 14Z
SOUTH TO 16Z NORTH. ALSO MOVED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN/SNOWFALL
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EASTWARD BASED ON 12Z MODEL TRENDS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WED RANGING FM 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NW CWA TO 4-7
INCHES OVER THE FAR SW CWA ALONG THE WI BDR. WENT WITH ADVISORIES
FOR MNM...DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES WHERE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON ON WED WITH MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
HRS. FARTHER EAST OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...LOW-LVL DRY
AIRMASS INITIALLY IN PLACE FROM LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO MOISTEN FM ISENTROPIC ASCENT SO ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW THERE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THERE FOR
NOW. IF TONIGHT/S MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF ADDING MNM AND POSSIBLY DELTA INTO
WARNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BEGIN COLD/WINTRY AS SHORTWAVE
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BTWN DEPARTING UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR MID APR AND WARMTH
SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY
MODERATE AS DEEP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR LIFT TO
GREENLAND...AND PACIFIC AIR MAKES INCREASING INROADS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND SRN CANADA. HEADING DOWN THE ROAD...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE AROUND NORMAL...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BLO NORMAL DURING THE TEMP SWINGS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM GEM ENSEMBLES AND GFS RUNS THAT THE PATTERN
MAY BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WHICH WILL MEAN
RAINFALL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN EVENTS. HOPEFULLY...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE AVOIDED AS THE SNOWMELT SEASON RESUMES.

BEGINNING WED NIGHT...A HVY/WET SNOW EVENT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS...MODELS THAT HAD MAX QPF AXIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
MODEL SPREAD HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY S AND E. RESULT IS IMPROVING
MODEL AGREEMENT NOW ON WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN WILL SET UP. IT
APPEARS MAX QPF AXIS SHOULD RUN ROUGHLY FROM JUST N OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE HURON MTNS. THE NAM IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NW OF
THIS AXIS WHILE THE GEM REGIONAL/HEMISPHERIC ARE DISPLACED A LITTLE
TO THE SE. ALTHOUGH SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
LAKES...BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/MOISTURE WILL COME TOGETHER FROM
ERN MN E AND NE NTO UPPER MI BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET STREAK RUNNING FROM
NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN ONTARIO EASTWARD WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS OF BRIEF UPPER JET COUPLING
WITH LEFT EXIT OF JET SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IS NOTED WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 4G/KG AVBL AROUND
700-750MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH NEGATIVE
EPV/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOTED OVERTOP THE FGEN. FINALLY...STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ADVECTING INTO THE SRN SIDE OF THE
PCPN AREA. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVIER BANDING OF
SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL MDT/HVY PCPN AREA OR EVEN CONVECTIVE SNOW AT
TIMES...CERTAINLY NOT ATYPICAL FOR SPRINGTIME HVY SNOW EVENTS.
ULTIMATE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL HINGE ON WHERE THESE
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SET UP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...LOCATIONS W OF KIMT/KMQT LINE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 FOOT...PROBABLY
IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADVY ISSUED FOR NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES E MAY IN
FACT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN MODEL TRENDS. FINALLY...
EVEN THE FAR E COUNTIES OF SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO AN ADVY IF THE E TREND HOLDS UP IN NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS.

PCPN WINDS DOWN QUICKLY THU AND WILL LIKELY END. SFC HIGH PRES THEN
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT TO PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. NAM IN PARTICULAR SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER THU NIGHT...AND THAT MAY BE THE CASE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR
MASS OVER EXPANDING OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. IF CLOUDS DO CLEAR
OUT IN SOME AREAS THU NIGHT...EXPECT BKN DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT FRI
UNDER MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL TROF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD EVEN DEVELOP. FRI HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S N WITH A CHILLY WIND OFF THE ICE TO THE 40S S. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FRI NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRES STILL OVER THE AREA. FAVORED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOME TEENS OVER THE W WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. COULD BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY
AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH PROGRESSION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC IN LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW...THOUGH AGREEMENT IS
IMPROVING WITH TODAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS. GEM IS STRONGER WITH WAVE AND
IS HEAVIER WITH THE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECWMF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER SYSTEM NOW. SOME -RA POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY REACH THE
W SAT AFTN...THEN SPREAD E SAT NIGHT/SUN. WITH WETTER TRENDS
NOTED...WILL TRENDING POPS UP TO CHC.

MON/TUE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TROF DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE W COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES/WRN
PLAINS WHILE TROF SETTLES INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE/HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS
OF HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH TYPICALLY VERIFIES BETTER. RESULT IS A COOLER
THAN GFS SCENARIO...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS. IF ANY
MINOR WAVES TRACK SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE ERN TROF...THERE MAY
BE SOME SCT LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT...NOTHING SUGGESTS
THE NEED FOR AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN MON OR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
-SHSN WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 21Z.
AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR AT KIWD BY
LATE WED MORNING AND TO MVFR AT KCMX AND KSAW BTWN 16-18Z WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FM THE PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A GALE
WARNING FOR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THU MORNING AS
WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO 25 KTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS STAY BLO
20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECENT COLDER WEATHER AND CONTINUATION OF COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RESULT IN SLOW RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW. THUS...
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS.
HOWEVER...ICE JAMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN SOME
AREAS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHED RUNOFF SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.50 TO
1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...GREATEST OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH
WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SNOWMELT RUNOFF/RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ006-013.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ004-084.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ005.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11
     AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009>011.

  WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY
     FOR MIZ001-003.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ012.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT /10
     AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 151757
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
ERN TX. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD
-SHSN TO NEAR IWD WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MANTIOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO WAS SLIDING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...NRLY FLOW PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDINGD FROM MANTIOBA
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE ERN LAKES INTO SRN
QUEBEC. THE NORTH WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C SUPPORTED
SOME LIGHT LES TO NEAR P53 DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE
ERN LAKE.

TODAY...THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES
TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LES
THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. SOME ISOLD -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN
LAKE SHRTWV ARE EXPECTED SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS MORNING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8-9C/KM WITH 850/700 MB
TEMPS OF -17C/-27C WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
WEST AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING
TO AROUND A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP OF 27 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI
DIMINISH...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 8F TO 15F RANGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY CLIMB LATE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAA
LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FEATURE OF
INTEREST THAT HELPS TO FOCUS SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SHIELD OF
SNOW VCNTY OF CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY TREND IN MODELS IT IS FOR A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF QPF/SNOW INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 12Z-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. TREND IS NOTHING TOO DRASTIC THOUGH...SO CHANGES TO THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TO UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED ON
290K SFC /H775-H650/ AND 285K SFC /H8-H7/ SURGES SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 15Z-03Z...THOUGH GFS/NAM REMAIN QUICKER
WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE MAINLY SNOW FOR
CWA. H7 MIXING RATIOS IN 2.5-2.75G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW
AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES. SUPPOSE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE
HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN SOME INSOLATION
COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS.
THUS OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW COULD BE MITIGATED SOME
COMPARED TO IF THE SNOW ARRIVED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ULTIMATELY IT ALL DEPENDS ON SNOWFALL RATES...WITH HIGHER RATES
ALLOWING FOR SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON THE PRIMARY ROADS.

NAM QPF STILL APPEARS OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN
MIXING RATIOS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT AREAS OVER MAINLY WESTERN TIER OF
CWA WILL SEE HIGHER QPF/SNOW DUE TO INCREASING AND FAIRLY ROBUST
H8-H7 FGEN AND STRONG FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FAR WEST TOWARD KEWEENAW
SEEMS IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING
WHICH COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH INSTABILITY AS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IS
PRESENT ATOP THE FGEN. NET RESULT IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CWA.

EVEN TRENDING AWAY FM THE NAM 1 INCH PLUS QPF AMOUNTS...BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS WILL SEE 0.8 INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SREF PROBS SHOWING OVER 70 PCT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH BUT NOT EVEN REACHING 10 PCT PROBS OF SEEING 1
INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW BULK OF LIFT OCCURRING IN THE
DGZ UP OVER 10KFT AGL. LIFT BLO THIS LAYER IN TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C
WILL LOWER SLR/S SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS CENTERED IN THE 12:1
RANGE...A BIT HIGHER IN THE FGEN AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS BLO 5KFT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS DECENT LIKLIHOOD OF SEEING TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES OVER WEST VCNTY OF PERSISTENT FGEN FORCING...BUT
PROBABLY MORE IN THE 7 TO 10 RANGE FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL CWA.
SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE CNTRL CWA...COORD WITH GRB
AND DLH AND WILL BE LEAVING WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS ATTM.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES INDICATE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE GENERALLY SNOW. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS SOUTH
OF LINE FM KIMT TO KERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ONLY
RAIN REMAINS AT KMNM AS WBZERO HEIGHT INCREASE OVER 2000FT AGL. MAY
SEE MORE AREAS CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S...BUT HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH
OF CWA BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXITING DEEP MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SITUATION WHERE DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE MAIN PCPN THAT IS
OCCURRING BY THURSDAY AFTN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE HELD
DOWN OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WARMER AIR BLO H85 WORKING
IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM THINKING AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH WILL NEED AN ADVY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND
UKMET ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SHIFTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL NEED TO PIN THIS DOWN FURTHER.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LEANED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WAS ALSO
PREFERRED BY HPC.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS WAS
ON THE HIGHER IMPACT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WEATHER. PROBABLY JUST AS
WELL TO AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY ON SPECIFICS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ONE TREND THAT WAS ACTED UPON WAS TO GO WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPR LAKES A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SHUNTING PRECIP WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ALONG PRIMARY H85
MOISTURE AXIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTH CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THUS DROPPED POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY
CHILLY THOUGH WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH AS NE WINDS
FLOW OFF THE ICY WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE COULD BE MID CLOUDS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.

MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR SATURDAY/EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH TRENDING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PTYPE
WOULD MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY RETREATS. GFS NOT AS EXCITED
ON THE OVERALL PCPN CHANCES. FORECAST CAME OUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WORKS FOR NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR SURE. TEMPS INDICATE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...BUT COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST IF ANY OF
THESE DAYS ENDS UP DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
-SHSN WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 21Z.
AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR AT KIWD BY
LATE WED MORNING AND TO MVFR AT KCMX AND KSAW BTWN 16-18Z WITH THE
ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO
CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
SLOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 151128
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
ERN TX. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD
-SHSN TO NEAR IWD WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MANTIOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO WAS SLIDING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...NRLY FLOW PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDINGD FROM MANTIOBA
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE ERN LAKES INTO SRN
QUEBEC. THE NORTH WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C SUPPORTED
SOME LIGHT LES TO NEAR P53 DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE
ERN LAKE.

TODAY...THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES
TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LES
THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. SOME ISOLD -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN
LAKE SHRTWV ARE EXPECTED SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS MORNING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8-9C/KM WITH 850/700 MB
TEMPS OF -17C/-27C WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
WEST AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING
TO AROUND A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP OF 27 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI
DIMINISH...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 8F TO 15F RANGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY CLIMB LATE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAA
LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FEATURE OF
INTEREST THAT HELPS TO FOCUS SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SHIELD OF
SNOW VCNTY OF CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY TREND IN MODELS IT IS FOR A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF QPF/SNOW INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 12Z-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. TREND IS NOTHING TOO DRASTIC THOUGH...SO CHANGES TO THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TO UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED ON
290K SFC /H775-H650/ AND 285K SFC /H8-H7/ SURGES SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 15Z-03Z...THOUGH GFS/NAM REMAIN QUICKER
WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE MAINLY SNOW FOR
CWA. H7 MIXING RATIOS IN 2.5-2.75G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW
AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES. SUPPOSE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE
HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN SOME INSOLATION
COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS.
THUS OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW COULD BE MITIGATED SOME
COMPARED TO IF THE SNOW ARRIVED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ULTIMATELY IT ALL DEPENDS ON SNOWFALL RATES...WITH HIGHER RATES
ALLOWING FOR SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON THE PRIMARY ROADS.

NAM QPF STILL APPEARS OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN
MIXING RATIOS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT AREAS OVER MAINLY WESTERN TIER OF
CWA WILL SEE HIGHER QPF/SNOW DUE TO INCREASING AND FAIRLY ROBUST
H8-H7 FGEN AND STRONG FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FAR WEST TOWARD KEWEENAW
SEEMS IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING
WHICH COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH INSTABILITY AS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IS
PRESENT ATOP THE FGEN. NET RESULT IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CWA.

EVEN TRENDING AWAY FM THE NAM 1 INCH PLUS QPF AMOUNTS...BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS WILL SEE 0.8 INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SREF PROBS SHOWING OVER 70 PCT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH BUT NOT EVEN REACHING 10 PCT PROBS OF SEEING 1
INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW BULK OF LIFT OCCURRING IN THE
DGZ UP OVER 10KFT AGL. LIFT BLO THIS LAYER IN TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C
WILL LOWER SLR/S SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS CENTERED IN THE 12:1
RANGE...A BIT HIGHER IN THE FGEN AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS BLO 5KFT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS DECENT LIKLIHOOD OF SEEING TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES OVER WEST VCNTY OF PERSISTENT FGEN FORCING...BUT
PROBABLY MORE IN THE 7 TO 10 RANGE FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL CWA.
SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE CNTRL CWA...COORD WITH GRB
AND DLH AND WILL BE LEAVING WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS ATTM.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES INDICATE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE GENERALLY SNOW. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS SOUTH
OF LINE FM KIMT TO KERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ONLY
RAIN REMAINS AT KMNM AS WBZERO HEIGHT INCREASE OVER 2000FT AGL. MAY
SEE MORE AREAS CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S...BUT HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH
OF CWA BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXITING DEEP MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SITUATION WHERE DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE MAIN PCPN THAT IS
OCCURRING BY THURSDAY AFTN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE HELD
DOWN OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WARMER AIR BLO H85 WORKING
IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM THINKING AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH WILL NEED AN ADVY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND
UKMET ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SHIFTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL NEED TO PIN THIS DOWN FURTHER.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LEANED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WAS ALSO
PREFERRED BY HPC.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS WAS
ON THE HIGHER IMPACT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WEATHER. PROBABLY JUST AS
WELL TO AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY ON SPECIFICS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ONE TREND THAT WAS ACTED UPON WAS TO GO WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPR LAKES A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SHUNTING PRECIP WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ALONG PRIMARY H85
MOISTURE AXIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTH CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THUS DROPPED POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY
CHILLY THOUGH WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH AS NE WINDS
FLOW OFF THE ICY WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE COULD BE MID CLOUDS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.

MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR SATURDAY/EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH TRENDING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PTYPE
WOULD MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY RETREATS. GFS NOT AS EXCITED
ON THE OVERALL PCPN CHANCES. FORECAST CAME OUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WORKS FOR NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR SURE. TEMPS INDICATE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...BUT COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST IF ANY OF
THESE DAYS ENDS UP DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD LIGHT NNW
FLOW OVER PARTIAL OPEN WATERS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SCT -SHSN THIS MORNING WITH OCNL CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AT IWD/CMX. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALSO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL -SHSN WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS NEAR INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. AFTER THE DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO
CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
SLOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 150908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
ERN TX. A WEAK SHRTWV INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED SOME ISOLD
-SHSN TO NEAR IWD WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV OVER CNTRL MANTIOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO WAS SLIDING TO THE SE TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...NRLY FLOW PREVAILED BTWN A RIDGE EXTENDINGD FROM MANTIOBA
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH FROM THE ERN LAKES INTO SRN
QUEBEC. THE NORTH WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -17C SUPPORTED
SOME LIGHT LES TO NEAR P53 DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE
ERN LAKE.

TODAY...THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN LAKES
TODAY BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT OR END THE LES
THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST. SOME ISOLD -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN
LAKE SHRTWV ARE EXPECTED SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS MORNING. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8-9C/KM WITH 850/700 MB
TEMPS OF -17C/-27C WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
WEST AND CNTRL UPPER MI. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DUSTING
TO AROUND A HALF INCH. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP OF 27 FOR THE NWS OFFICE.

TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHSN OVER S CNTRL UPPER MI
DIMINISH...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 8F TO 15F RANGE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY CLIMB LATE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WAA
LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING 280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPPER MI BUT MAY SLIDE INTO THE FAR WEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FEATURE OF
INTEREST THAT HELPS TO FOCUS SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SHIELD OF
SNOW VCNTY OF CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY TREND IN MODELS IT IS FOR A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF QPF/SNOW INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 12Z-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. TREND IS NOTHING TOO DRASTIC THOUGH...SO CHANGES TO THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TO UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED ON
290K SFC /H775-H650/ AND 285K SFC /H8-H7/ SURGES SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 15Z-03Z...THOUGH GFS/NAM REMAIN QUICKER
WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE MAINLY SNOW FOR
CWA. H7 MIXING RATIOS IN 2.5-2.75G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW
AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES. SUPPOSE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE
HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN SOME INSOLATION
COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS.
THUS OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW COULD BE MITIGATED SOME
COMPARED TO IF THE SNOW ARRIVED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ULTIMATELY IT ALL DEPENDS ON SNOWFALL RATES...WITH HIGHER RATES
ALLOWING FOR SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON THE PRIMARY ROADS.

NAM QPF STILL APPEARS OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN
MIXING RATIOS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT AREAS OVER MAINLY WESTERN TIER OF
CWA WILL SEE HIGHER QPF/SNOW DUE TO INCREASING AND FAIRLY ROBUST
H8-H7 FGEN AND STRONG FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FAR WEST TOWARD KEWEENAW
SEEMS IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING
WHICH COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH INSTABILITY AS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IS
PRESENT ATOP THE FGEN. NET RESULT IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CWA.

EVEN TRENDING AWAY FM THE NAM 1 INCH PLUS QPF AMOUNTS...BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS WILL SEE 0.8 INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SREF PROBS SHOWING OVER 70 PCT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH BUT NOT EVEN REACHING 10 PCT PROBS OF SEEING 1
INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW BULK OF LIFT OCCURRING IN THE
DGZ UP OVER 10KFT AGL. LIFT BLO THIS LAYER IN TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C
WILL LOWER SLR/S SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS CENTERED IN THE 12:1
RANGE...A BIT HIGHER IN THE FGEN AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS BLO 5KFT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS DECENT LIKLIHOOD OF SEEING TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES OVER WEST VCNTY OF PERSISTENT FGEN FORCING...BUT
PROBABLY MORE IN THE 7 TO 10 RANGE FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL CWA.
SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE CNTRL CWA...COORD WITH GRB
AND DLH AND WILL BE LEAVING WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS ATTM.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES INDICATE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE GENERALLY SNOW. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS SOUTH
OF LINE FM KIMT TO KERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ONLY
RAIN REMAINS AT KMNM AS WBZERO HEIGHT INCREASE OVER 2000FT AGL. MAY
SEE MORE AREAS CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S...BUT HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH
OF CWA BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXITING DEEP MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SITUATION WHERE DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE MAIN PCPN THAT IS
OCCURRING BY THURSDAY AFTN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE HELD
DOWN OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WARMER AIR BLO H85 WORKING
IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM THINKING AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH WILL NEED AN ADVY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND
UKMET ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SHIFTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL NEED TO PIN THIS DOWN FURTHER.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LEANED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WAS ALSO
PREFERRED BY HPC.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS WAS
ON THE HIGHER IMPACT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WEATHER. PROBABLY JUST AS
WELL TO AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY ON SPECIFICS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ONE TREND THAT WAS ACTED UPON WAS TO GO WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPR LAKES A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SHUNTING PRECIP WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ALONG PRIMARY H85
MOISTURE AXIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTH CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THUS DROPPED POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY
CHILLY THOUGH WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH AS NE WINDS
FLOW OFF THE ICY WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE COULD BE MID CLOUDS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.

MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR SATURDAY/EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH TRENDING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PTYPE
WOULD MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY RETREATS. GFS NOT AS EXCITED
ON THE OVERALL PCPN CHANCES. FORECAST CAME OUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WORKS FOR NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR SURE. TEMPS INDICATE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...BUT COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST IF ANY OF
THESE DAYS ENDS UP DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL BE PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS THIS
MRNG AND AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LK EFFECT SHSN...DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREDOMINATE. BEST CHC FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX AND
IWD WITH A MORE UPSLOPE NNW FLOW...BUT INCLUDED ONLY TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE FIRST 6 HRS NOW. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO
CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
SLOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 150903
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
503 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

00Z INL RAOB SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LLVLS.
SFC DEWPTS IN MN ARE ALSO RATHER LO...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRY
AIR HAS CAUSED THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SGNFTLY. ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO MIGHT CAUSE SOME
SHSN TO PICK UP LATER TNGT ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...CUT PREVIOUS POPS
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DRY LLVL AIR MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. ALSO
LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DRYNESS
AND QUICKER CLRG OF MID/HI CLDS STILL IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR W.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO HEAD EAST TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN BRING IN SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON TUE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -16C AND WITH ALL THE ICE OUT ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T IS 16C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUE AND
WITH ITS MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFFECTED LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS. WILL NOT GET TOO OUT OF HAND THOUGH
AS ICE COVERAGE IS LIMITING THE INTENSITY A BIT. PUSHED POPS UP A
BIT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS TO SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE PRETTY COLD THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND THERE COULD BE
A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FOR LOWS AND MAYBE EVEN COLD
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS ON TUE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FEATURE OF
INTEREST THAT HELPS TO FOCUS SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING SHIELD OF
SNOW VCNTY OF CNTRL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY TREND IN MODELS IT IS FOR A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF QPF/SNOW INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BTWN 12Z-18Z ON
WEDNESDAY. TREND IS NOTHING TOO DRASTIC THOUGH...SO CHANGES TO THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST WERE RELATIVELY MINOR. SFC TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TO UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAXIMIZED ON
290K SFC /H775-H650/ AND 285K SFC /H8-H7/ SURGES SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ROUGHLY 15Z-03Z...THOUGH GFS/NAM REMAIN QUICKER
WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF WHAT WILL ESSENTIALLY BE MAINLY SNOW FOR
CWA. H7 MIXING RATIOS IN 2.5-2.75G/KG RANGE SUGGESTS 12 HOUR SNOW
AMOUNTS NEARING 6 INCHES. SUPPOSE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE
HELD DOWN SOME AS SNOW ARRIVES DURING THE DAYTIME WHEN SOME INSOLATION
COULD LIMIT ACCUMS ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER TRAFFIC/TRAVELLED ROADS.
THUS OVERALL POSSIBLE IMPACT FROM THE SNOW COULD BE MITIGATED SOME
COMPARED TO IF THE SNOW ARRIVED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ULTIMATELY IT ALL DEPENDS ON SNOWFALL RATES...WITH HIGHER RATES
ALLOWING FOR SLUSHY ACCUMS EVEN ON THE PRIMARY ROADS.

NAM QPF STILL APPEARS OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN
MIXING RATIOS. DO NOT DOUBT THAT AREAS OVER MAINLY WESTERN TIER OF
CWA WILL SEE HIGHER QPF/SNOW DUE TO INCREASING AND FAIRLY ROBUST
H8-H7 FGEN AND STRONG FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FAR WEST TOWARD KEWEENAW
SEEMS IN LINE FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING
WHICH COULD BE SUPPLEMENTED WITH INSTABILITY AS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IS
PRESENT ATOP THE FGEN. NET RESULT IS POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CWA.

EVEN TRENDING AWAY FM THE NAM 1 INCH PLUS QPF AMOUNTS...BLEND OF GFS
AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS WILL SEE 0.8 INCH OF TOTAL QPF.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SREF PROBS SHOWING OVER 70 PCT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH BUT NOT EVEN REACHING 10 PCT PROBS OF SEEING 1
INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS OVERALL SHOW BULK OF LIFT OCCURRING IN THE
DGZ UP OVER 10KFT AGL. LIFT BLO THIS LAYER IN TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C
WILL LOWER SLR/S SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS CENTERED IN THE 12:1
RANGE...A BIT HIGHER IN THE FGEN AREA AND POSSIBLY A BIT LOWER
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA WITH WARMER TEMPS BLO 5KFT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS DECENT LIKLIHOOD OF SEEING TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES OVER WEST VCNTY OF PERSISTENT FGEN FORCING...BUT
PROBABLY MORE IN THE 7 TO 10 RANGE FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL CWA.
SINCE THE SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE CNTRL CWA...COORD WITH GRB
AND DLH AND WILL BE LEAVING WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS ATTM.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE CWA...SOUNDINGS AND 1000-850MB AND
850-700MB THICKNESSES INDICATE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL BE GENERALLY SNOW. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS SOUTH
OF LINE FM KIMT TO KERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR ONLY
RAIN REMAINS AT KMNM AS WBZERO HEIGHT INCREASE OVER 2000FT AGL. MAY
SEE MORE AREAS CHANGE TO RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTN AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S...BUT HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTH
OF CWA BY THAT TIME. SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXITING DEEP MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN SITUATION WHERE DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES ARE MAIN PCPN THAT IS
OCCURRING BY THURSDAY AFTN. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST SHOULD BE HELD
DOWN OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WARMER AIR BLO H85 WORKING
IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ATTM THINKING AREAS EAST OF
THE WATCH WILL NEED AN ADVY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
THIS ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP TREND ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GEM-NH AND
UKMET ARE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRIMARY AREA OF HEAVIER
SNOW. SHIFTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL NEED TO PIN THIS DOWN FURTHER.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST LEANED TOWARD GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WAS ALSO
PREFERRED BY HPC.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MAIN FOCUS WAS
ON THE HIGHER IMPACT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WEATHER. PROBABLY JUST AS
WELL TO AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY ON SPECIFICS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ONE TREND THAT WAS ACTED UPON WAS TO GO WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS THE UPR LAKES A COUPLE DAYS AGO IS NOW SHUNTING PRECIP WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ALONG PRIMARY H85
MOISTURE AXIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH GEM-NH AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATES SOUTH CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THUS DROPPED POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD STAY SEASONABLY
CHILLY THOUGH WITH MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH AS NE WINDS
FLOW OFF THE ICY WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE COULD BE MID CLOUDS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.

MODEL CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR SATURDAY/EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY. ECMWF
AND GEM-NH TRENDING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PTYPE
WOULD MOSTLY BE RAIN...WITH MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR GRADUALLY RETREATS. GFS NOT AS EXCITED
ON THE OVERALL PCPN CHANCES. FORECAST CAME OUT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WORKS FOR NOW AS THE CONSISTENCY IN
THE MODELS IS LESS THAN DESIRED FOR SURE. TEMPS INDICATE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND...BUT COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS THAN FORECAST IF ANY OF
THESE DAYS ENDS UP DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL BE PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS THIS
MRNG AND AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LK EFFECT SHSN...DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREDOMINATE. BEST CHC FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX AND
IWD WITH A MORE UPSLOPE NNW FLOW...BUT INCLUDED ONLY TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE FIRST 6 HRS NOW. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
30 KTS WITH GALE GUSTS SEEMS LIKELY OVER FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS ARE ENHANCED DUE TO
CHANNELING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR. WINDS STAY BLO 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT
SLOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ICE JAMS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP
ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS ONCE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 150534
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

00Z INL RAOB SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LLVLS.
SFC DEWPTS IN MN ARE ALSO RATHER LO...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRY
AIR HAS CAUSED THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SGNFTLY. ALTHOUGH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO MIGHT CAUSE SOME
SHSN TO PICK UP LATER TNGT ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...CUT PREVIOUS POPS
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DRY LLVL AIR MOVING INTO THE UPR LKS. ALSO
LOWERED FCST MIN TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DRYNESS
AND QUICKER CLRG OF MID/HI CLDS STILL IMPACTING ALL BUT THE FAR W.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO HEAD EAST TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY. NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN BRING IN SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LASTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OUT ON TUE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -16C AND WITH ALL THE ICE OUT ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T IS 16C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUE AND
WITH ITS MOISTURE AND LIFT...THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFFECTED LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS. WILL NOT GET TOO OUT OF HAND THOUGH
AS ICE COVERAGE IS LIMITING THE INTENSITY A BIT. PUSHED POPS UP A
BIT IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS TO SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE PRETTY COLD THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND THERE COULD BE
A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FOR LOWS AND MAYBE EVEN COLD
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS ON TUE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LEAD TO THE CALM BEFORE THE NEXT SNOW STORM TO AFFECT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA (PROVIDING THE SUPPORT FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM). THERE COULD
BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS...BUT WOULD EXPECT A QUICK PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  THIS CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK COOL DOWN TO TEMPS
FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS (SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO) AND THEN WARMING
LATE AS THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...IF NOT THE ENTIRE
U.P. THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF ISN/T OVERLY STRONG AND ACTUALLY
WEAKENS FROM 997MB TO 1017MB AS IT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY EVENING TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z
THURSDAY. BUT THE STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH THAT TRACKS AND PIVOTS THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
LEAD TO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS STILL VARY A LITTLE
ON WHERE THE INVERTED TROUGH IS LOCATED AND THE LOW TRACK...BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN U.P. TO SEE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL PRECIP ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS THE LOW/TROUGH APPROACH. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF
THE CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER THE WEST HALF. THEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH PIVOTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT...THE
BETTER FORCING (850-700MB FGEN) AND PRECIP WILL FOCUS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE UPSLOPE HELP TOO HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WINDS TURN TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS UPSLOPE
FORCING SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING OVER THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. FINALLY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW/TROUGH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX WITH THE
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A
DECENT SWATH OF 0.6-1.10 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN AREA...WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED WHERE THE STRONGER FGEN FEATURE SETS UP
(RIGHT NOW FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN). 09Z SREF
PROBS OF 1IN OF QPF AROUND 30-50 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND
HAVE 12HR PROBS OF 0.5IN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY EXCEEDING 50
PERCENT. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE GOING FORECAST BY 0.15-0.30 OVER
THE WEST WHERE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST FORCING IS.
FARTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL COME FROM THE WAA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND KEEPS AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH
RANGE. SINCE COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND STRONG FORCING LIKELY
OCCURRING AROUND THE DGZ...THINK RATIOS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WILL BE IN THE 13-16 TO 1 RANGE AND THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST COBB OUTPUT. VALUES OVER THE CENTRAL MAY BE A LITTLE
LOWER HEADING LATER IN THE EVENT (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) AS WARMER AIR
MOVES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN CWA. THAT ALSO AFFECTS SOME OF THE
EASTERN AREAS...SINCE THE FORCING WILL FOCUS BELOW THE DGZ AND LEAD
TO SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 10-1. COMBINING QPF AND SNOW RATIOS...HAVE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND GENERALLY IN
THE 6 TO 13 INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THUS...OPTED TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM MARQUETTE/DICKINSON COUNTIES. FARTHER EAST...DELTA/ALGER MAY
BE BORDERLINE FOR WARNING AMOUNT SNOWFALL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA
LOOKS TO SEE ADVISORY SNOWFALL...EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE
COUNTY WHERE THE INITIAL SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE WITH
WARMING TEMPS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY AND DIMINISH THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO) SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY/CALM NIGHT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. WITH A FRESH
SNOWFALL...WOULD THINK RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA) AND MAY NEED TO TREND LOWS
DOWN A LITTLE FURTHER THAN THE GOING FORECAST OF LOWER 20S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FOR THIS WEEKEND...BUT SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL/LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. THE LINGERING TROUGH (LIKELY AROUND NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN) WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TO
THE LOW TRACK. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL STRETCH A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THAT IDEA...WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO TREND TO A SHARPER
CUTOFF TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. THE RIDGE WILL
THEN ARRIVE BEHIND THE LOW AND PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BUT DRY AIR
REMAINING FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED.

AFTER A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MODELS ARE INDICATING A
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FOR
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND START THE SNOW MELT AGAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL BE PASSING OVER THE UPR LKS THIS
MRNG AND AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LK EFFECT SHSN...DRY
AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL AND YPL RAOBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREDOMINATE. BEST CHC FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX AND
IWD WITH A MORE UPSLOPE NNW FLOW...BUT INCLUDED ONLY TEMPO GROUPS IN
THE FIRST 6 HRS NOW. ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NORTH GALES 35-40 KNOTS FOR TODAY...MAINLY EAST HALF...AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BLO 20 KTS OVER MOST OF THE LAKE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 25 KTS OVER MAINLY WESTERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 20 KTS REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

REPORTS OF ICE JAMS IN DELTA COUNTY SUNDAY ON ESCANABA RIVER AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...EXPECT LOWER RUNOFF OF MELTING SNOW TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICE JAMS THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS PRECIP ADDED TO EXISTING SNOWPACK WITH WATER
EQUIVALENT OF 4-9 INCHES OVER MAINLY WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF ONCE WARMER
TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ001>005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
HYDROLOGY...SRF








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