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000
FXUS63 KMQT 242329
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IOWA AND
NORTHERN MO. TWO MAIN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RESULT FROM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT AND TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES. NORTHERN SHORTWAVE IS THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE PRECIPITATION IMPACTING UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. WRAPPED UP SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...BASED ON METAR 3HR PRECIP
REPORTS...HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN WI COMPARED TO
EASTERN WI. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY DRY AIR BLO H7 SEEN ON 12Z
SOUNDING AT KAPX IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIP
TO REMAIN OVER WEST HALF OF CWA INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85 COMBINES WITH INCREASING LARGER SCALE LIFT FROM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT H85-H5 MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. JET STREAK LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO INCREASE PRECIP. FARTHER EAST...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE THE MAIN INSTIGATOR FOR PRECIP...BUT THINK
THAT PRECIP OVER THE EAST WILL BE HINDERED BY THE DRY AIR FEEDING IN
FROM THE EAST.

PTYPE REMAINS MAIN ISSUE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH WARM LAYER ALOFT...SO SNOW WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS IN
THE BLYR. THUS FAR...INTERIOR SECTIONS OVER WEST HALF OF CWA HAVE
SEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT LOWER LEVEL ELEVATIONS ARE SEEING ONLY RAIN.
THINK THE MODELS ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EXTENT OF DRY AIR AND
ULTIMATELY THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SO AM KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN OVER THE INTERIOR. ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES ACROSS THIS
EVENING...THINK THAT STRONGER DYNAMICS/LIFTING WILL RESULT IN MORE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND SWITCH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN
AND NORTH CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH MAINLY RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CNTRL CWA AND ON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE TEMPS THIS AFTN
HAVE REACHED UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
ROAD TEMPS ALL OVER UPR MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S...SO DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS INITIALLY...EVEN WITH HEAVIER
RATES. EVENTUALLY WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...SOME SLUSHY SNOW WILL
TRY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA. MOST OF THE ACCUMS
THOUGH WILL BE ON THE GRASSY SURFACES. TWEAKED DOWN TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES AT THE MOST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW AND MORE IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. SNOW WILL BE WET AND SLOPPY WITH SLR/S
BLO 10:1. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW. GIVEN LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS OVR REST OF CWA...WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 WRAPS BY TO THE EAST...LEAVING
LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL BUT LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW.
COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE MORNING OVER THE KEWEENAW...AS
LONG AS THIS PROGRESSIVE IDEA OFFERED UP BY THE MODELS DOES COME
TO FRUITION. SOUNDINGS BY EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...INDICATE SHALLOW
MOISTURE TO H9-H85 WITH ANOTHER SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE COMING BACK
IN DURING THE AFTN. BLYR WARMING WILL SWITCH ANY PRECIP TO RAIN BY
EARLY AFTN. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S
AND POSSIBLY AS WARM AS THE 50S OVER THE SCNTRL WITH WEST SFC WINDS
AND CLOUDS THINNING OUT MORE THAN ACROSS REST OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRI NIGHT...MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN PLACING THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z/SAT WHICH WOULD BRING THE BAND OF
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV THROUGH THE ERN CWA DURING THE EVENING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONV FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING SOME SNOW TO NORTHERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NNE FLOW. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A HALF INCH OR LESS.

SAT...THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
THE NRN LAKES UNDER STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD BRING
DRYING BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF
ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGH ONLY
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE
MID LEVEL HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY AND LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
FAVOR DRY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SFC HUDSON BAY HIGH. AS A
RESULT...THE DRIER LOOK OF THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED WHICH KEEPS THE
PCPN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE GFS HAS
ALSO TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...SLIGHT TO LOWER END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...PER MODEL
CONSENSUS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN LINGERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH THE MID LEVEL
LOW FROM NEAR IA INTO THE SRN LAKES. WITH A SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR
LOWER MI OR INDIANA...SFC MOISTURE INFLOW TOWARD THE NRN LAKES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHRTWVS ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH COLD NE FLOW
INTO THE AREA AND INCREASING CLOUDS BY WED-THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT CMX...BUT
COULD STAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT IWD AND SAW.
EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS...FIRST COMING FROM THE VSBY AND
EVENTUALLY DUE TO LOWERING CIGS. THE MOST PERSISTENT LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPING EASTERLY
WINDS. LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...DIMINISHES AT THE TAF SITES...BUT LOWER IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT IWD AND CMX...BUT UPSLOPE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP CIGS AT IFR AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTN DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS LATE
THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
EAST WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW
THROUGH THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
HIGH AND EVEN RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE OBSERVED RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND
THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND HOLD STEADY INTO THE WEEKEND.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 242033
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IOWA AND
NORTHERN MO. TWO MAIN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RESULT FROM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT AND TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES. NORTHERN SHORTWAVE IS THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE PRECIPITATION IMPACTING UPPER LAKES THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. WRAPPED UP SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION LIFTING ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS FAR...BASED ON METAR 3HR PRECIP
REPORTS...HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN WI COMPARED TO
EASTERN WI. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY DRY AIR BLO H7 SEEN ON 12Z
SOUNDING AT KAPX IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIP
TO REMAIN OVER WEST HALF OF CWA INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT H85 COMBINES WITH INCREASING LARGER SCALE LIFT FROM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT H85-H5 MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. JET STREAK LIFTING NNE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO INCREASE PRECIP. FARTHER EAST...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE THE MAIN INSTIGATOR FOR PRECIP...BUT THINK
THAT PRECIP OVER THE EAST WILL BE HINDERED BY THE DRY AIR FEEDING IN
FROM THE EAST.

PTYPE REMAINS MAIN ISSUE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH WARM LAYER ALOFT...SO SNOW WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS IN
THE BLYR. THUS FAR...INTERIOR SECTIONS OVER WEST HALF OF CWA HAVE
SEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT LOWER LEVEL ELEVATIONS ARE SEEING ONLY RAIN.
THINK THE MODELS ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EXTENT OF DRY AIR AND
ULTIMATELY THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SO AM KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IN OVER THE INTERIOR. ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES ACROSS THIS
EVENING...THINK THAT STRONGER DYNAMICS/LIFTING WILL RESULT IN MORE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND SWITCH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN
AND NORTH CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...WITH MAINLY RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CNTRL CWA AND ON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS...WHERE TEMPS THIS AFTN
HAVE REACHED UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
ROAD TEMPS ALL OVER UPR MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S...SO DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS INITIALLY...EVEN WITH HEAVIER
RATES. EVENTUALLY WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...SOME SLUSHY SNOW WILL
TRY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA. MOST OF THE ACCUMS
THOUGH WILL BE ON THE GRASSY SURFACES. TWEAKED DOWN TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES AT THE MOST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW AND MORE IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. SNOW WILL BE WET AND SLOPPY WITH SLR/S
BLO 10:1. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW. GIVEN LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS OVR REST OF CWA...WILL JUST MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 WRAPS BY TO THE EAST...LEAVING
LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE FOR ALL BUT LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW.
COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE MORNING OVER THE KEWEENAW...AS
LONG AS THIS PROGRESSIVE IDEA OFFERED UP BY THE MODELS DOES COME
TO FRUITION. SOUNDINGS BY EARLY AFTN FRIDAY...INDICATE SHALLOW
MOISTURE TO H9-H85 WITH ANOTHER SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE COMING BACK
IN DURING THE AFTN. BLYR WARMING WILL SWITCH ANY PRECIP TO RAIN BY
EARLY AFTN. MIXING TO H9 SUPPORTS TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S
AND POSSIBLY AS WARM AS THE 50S OVER THE SCNTRL WITH WEST SFC WINDS
AND CLOUDS THINNING OUT MORE THAN ACROSS REST OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FRI NIGHT...MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN PLACING THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z/SAT WHICH WOULD BRING THE BAND OF
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV THROUGH THE ERN CWA DURING THE EVENING. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL PCPN THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW.
OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONV FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO BRING SOME SNOW TO NORTHERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...MAINLY FOR AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NNE FLOW. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A HALF INCH OR LESS.

SAT...THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
THE NRN LAKES UNDER STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD BRING
DRYING BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF
ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH HIGH ONLY
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WHILE LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTH CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...THE STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE
MID LEVEL HIGH NEAR HUDSON BAY AND LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
FAVOR DRY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SFC HUDSON BAY HIGH. AS A
RESULT...THE DRIER LOOK OF THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED WHICH KEEPS THE
PCPN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE GFS HAS
ALSO TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...SLIGHT TO LOWER END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...PER MODEL
CONSENSUS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN LINGERING MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
UNCERTAINTY.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH THE MID LEVEL
LOW FROM NEAR IA INTO THE SRN LAKES. WITH A SFC LOW MOVING TO NEAR
LOWER MI OR INDIANA...SFC MOISTURE INFLOW TOWARD THE NRN LAKES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHRTWVS ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH COLD NE FLOW
INTO THE AREA AND INCREASING CLOUDS BY WED-THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW BY LATE TODAY AT
CMX...BUT COULD STAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT IWD
AND SAW. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS...FIRST COMING FROM THE VSBY
AND EVENTUALLY DUE TO LOWERING CIGS. THE MOST PERSISTENT LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPING EASTERLY
WINDS. LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...DIMINISHES AT THE TAF SITES...BUT LOWER IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTN DRIFTS OFF THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS LATE
THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
EAST WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN
THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW
THROUGH THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
HIGH AND EVEN RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE LOWER TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE OBSERVED RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND
THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND HOLD STEADY INTO THE WEEKEND.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 241746
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
146 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS GAINING STRENGTH OVER MID CONUS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WISCONSIN.
THUS FAR APPEARANCE OF RADAR ECHOES AND SFC OBS POINTING TO MOSTLY
SNOW ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
UPSTREAM THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER WCNTRL WISCONSIN
WHERE COUPLE OBS SHOWED 3HR PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER 0.40 INCHES. WITH
THE PRECIP FARTHER INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN...3 HR AMOUNTS ARE MORE IN
THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE. SEEMS THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WCNTRL
WISCONSIN LIFTS INTO NORTHERN WI AND MAINLY WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS AFTN. AMOUNTS MAY BE ENHANCED LATER TODAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
AT H85 COMBINES WITH INCREASING LARGER SCALE LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT H85-H5 MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALSO SMALLISH BUT PRESENT H25 JET STREAK LIFTS SSW-NNE ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE LIKELY. FARTHER EAST INTO
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CWA...PRECIP IS MOSTLY
SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WITH THIS FORCING WILL BE MORE AFFECTED BY VERY DRY AIR SEEN
ON 12Z APX SOUNDING FEEDING IN FM THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BE HELD DOWN COMPARED TO WESTERN CWA.

PTYPE IS MAIN ISSUE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. TOP DOWN LOOK AT SOUNDINGS
SHOW NOT MUCH WARM LAYER ALOFT...SO SNOW WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
LOWER LAYERS. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS IN THE BLYR.
INITALLY LOOKED LIKE BASED ON RUC13/NAM12 OUTPUT...WHICH INITIALIZED
SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS WELL...THAT THE 950MB WET BULB TEMPS WOULD BE
ENOUGH ABOVE ZERO TO RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN. BUT...THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EXTENT OF DRY AIR AND ULTIMATELY THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH MORE SNOW IN NORTHERN WI AND IT IS
LASTING LONGER THAN 950MB WET BULB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST. HAVE WORKED
AND REWORKED PTYPE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW...KEPT
HIGHER PROBS FOR SNOW INTO THE EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WITH BETTER SHOT AT ONLY RAIN OVER LOWER
TERRAIN ELEVATIONS OF WEST HALF OF CWA AND ACROSS ALL EASTERN CWA
SINCE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. ROAD TEMPS ALL OVER UPR MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 40S...SO DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS EVEN IF IT DOES SNOW HARDER.
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTN...UP TO AN INCH...WILL BE
ON GRASSY SURFACES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD INCREASE
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CWA. THAT STILL SEEMS ON TRACK. TOTAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
UPR MICHIGAN...WITH AMOUNTS MORE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FROM IRON
COUNTY INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. WILL BE
KEEPING THE ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW AS THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING THE MOST SNOW IS STILL PROJECTED. SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CWA...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

WARMER AND DRIER INITIALLY...WITH ONLY 1 MAIN BAND OF RELATIVELY
LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING UPPER MI...STRETCHING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THROUGH GOGEBIC CO AND NEAR MNM. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF
PRECIP FROM THERE UNTIL S WI /FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/WAA/...WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW START OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY AS N AND S
STEAM LOW NEAR FROM THE W /OVER N MN AND MO AT 00Z FRIDAY/. THE SFC
REFLECTIONS WILL NOT BE FAR OFF...WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE N 500MB LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

BACK TO THE NEAR TERM...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS OVER NE WI AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAS HELPED KEEP THE EARLY MORNING PRECIP CONFINED
MAINLY S OF THE CWA. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE DRY AIR HAS RESULTED
IN A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW S OF THE BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP AT THE LEADING EDGE THROUGH 15Z...UNTIL NEAR SFC TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN TO RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN.
GUIDANCE /AND SPECIFICALLY THE LAV/ HAS IMT SFC TEMPS HOVERING
BETWEEN 40 AND 44F FROM 13Z- 23Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY SNOW
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW. DRY AIR WILL ABOUND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 20S...WHICH COULD STILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW IN STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP IS CONFINED TO FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR AND S WI.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO CONFINE EVENT QPF OVER 0.8IN TO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION TO
OUR S AND WHAT IMPACT THAT HAS ON THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN WITH LESS QPF...WHICH WAS EXPECTED...BUT CONTINUES TO
HIT THE CENTRAL CWA FROM WATERSMEET TO MQT AND IMT WITH OVER 0.5IN
OF LIQUID THIS AFTERNOON /FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN/.
OVERALL...NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FCST...BUT EXPECT SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A
MAINLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE 20S...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND EVEN LOWER E OF ERY.

OTHERWISE...STILL HAVE 3-8IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE TRANSITIONED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NOT
CONTINUE THE SPS FOR OTHER AREAS...ALTHOUGH 12HR SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
GRASSY /AND STILL SNOW COVERED/ SURFACES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP
2-4IN. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLUSHY COULD OF INCHES.

MAY HAVE A SLOWER END OF THE HIGHER POPS THAN CURRENTLY HAVE
INDICATED AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT
DRIER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC-700MB LOW /WHICH SHOULD BE SET UP
ACROSS THE W THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z FRIDAY/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON POPS/PTYPE/
ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS ON FRI/FRI NGT. HUDSON BAY HI PRES SHOULD
BRING A DRY BUT COOL PERIOD OF WX THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI...WARM CONVEYOR BELT RIBBON OF MSTR WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AS
HI AS 4G/KG AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC UNDER DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW
AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU WRN LK SUP ARE FCST TO STILL BE
INFLUENCING THE KEWEENAW AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE CWA AT
12Z ON FRI...WITH MID LVL DRY SLOTTING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SHRTWV IMPACTING AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER. EXACTLY HOW FAR N OR S
THIS SHRTWV TRACKS W-E THRU UPR MI WL INFLUENCE HOW LONG HEAVIER
PCPN UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CAN LINGER AT ANY GIVEN
POINT...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE S OF THE H7 LO TRACK UNDER MORE
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING SEEING A QUICKER END TO THE HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/HIER RES CNDN MODEL/LOCAL WRF ARW/ECMWF HAVE
ALL TRENDED FARTHER TO THE N WITH THE SHRTWV/H7 LO TRACK AND SHOW
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING MOVING W-E THRU UPR MI AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THE PCPN BY EARLY AFTN EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME SCT RA/SN
SHOWERS OVER THE N AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO THE PATH OF
THESE FEATURES. WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING AND LESS
PCPN...BUMPED UP FCST HI TEMPS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN CWA EVEN THOUGH
LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SC TO LINGER UNDER
STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN. THE WARMEST AREA WL BE OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW WL ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLDS/WARMING. INCREASED HI TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN THIS AREA.

FRI NGT...STEADY HGT RISES/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV TO THE E WL BE INFLUENCING UPR MI...BUT SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV SLIDING SEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME HEAVIER PCPN TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LEAD
SHRTWV AND FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ITS WAKE...
PREFER THE 12Z ECWMF/00Z NAM THAT SUPPRESS THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND MAINTAIN MORE MID LVL DRYING. HOWEVER...LINGERING CYC LLVL NE
FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LGT
RA/SN SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NGT.

SAT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER STEADILY RISING HGTS...IN
LINE WITH GOING DRY FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LO
CLDS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP IN LLVL NNE FLOW WITHIN SHALLOW COOL LYR
UNDER LOWERING/STRENGTHENING INVRN...THESE CLDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME AFTN SUNSHINE...
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS RISING NO
HIER THAN -3C AND THE LLVL NNE FLOW OFF THE WATER STILL COVERED WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF ICE. HELD FCST HI TEMPS IN THE WELL BLO NORMAL
MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK SUP.

SAT NGT/SUN...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING UPR
RDG BLDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LKS TO THE NE OF POTENT
SHRTWV EMERGING OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT A
GOOD NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW DEEPER MSTR RETURNING TO THE
UPR GRT LKS WELL TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
BLDG RDG AND PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES WITH DRY ENE LLVL FLOW/
SPRING CLIMATOLOGY FOR HUDSON BAY HI PRES...SUSPECT THE 00Z ECWMF IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A DRY FCST FOR UPR MI. SINCE OTHER MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING MSTR...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE/ECMWF FCST TEMPS FOR SAT NGT...WHICH COULD BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE LO 20S.

EXTENDED...AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO/LARGER SCALE CYC
FLOW TO THE SW SLOWLY MOVE NEWD...MAINTAINED GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS
SHOWN BY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MON THRU WED TIME. TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE SLOWLY RETREATING HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND APRCHG
DEEP LO PRES WL RESULT IN STEADY/GUSTY E WINDS. FCST THERMAL FIELDS
THAT SUPPORT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ALSO INDICATE SOME OF THE PCPN
MAY BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH SN AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO MAINLY SNOW BY LATE TODAY AT
CMX...BUT COULD STAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT IWD
AND SAW. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS...FIRST COMING FROM THE VSBY
AND EVENTUALLY DUE TO LOWERING CIGS. THE MOST PERSISTENT LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CMX TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPING EASTERLY
WINDS. LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...DIMINISHES AT THE TAF SITES...BUT LOWER IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER E WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW
THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
HIGH AND EVEN RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE SEEN RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND
THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC/KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 241604 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1204 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS GAINING STRENGTH OVER MID CONUS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FM MINNESOTA ACROSS WISCONSIN.
THUS FAR APPEARANCE OF RADAR ECHOES AND SFC OBS POINTING TO MOSTLY
SNOW ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
UPSTREAM THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURRING OVER WCNTRL WISCONSIN
WHERE COUPLE OBS SHOWED 3HR PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER 0.40 INCHES. WITH
THE PRECIP FARTHER INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN...3 HR AMOUNTS ARE MORE IN
THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE. SEEMS THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WCNTRL
WISCONSIN LIFTS INTO NORTHERN WI AND MAINLY WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS AFTN. AMOUNTS MAY BE ENHANCED LATER TODAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
AT H85 COMBINES WITH INCREASING LARGER SCALE LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AT H85-H5 MOVING IN FROM NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALSO SMALLISH BUT PRESENT H25 JET STREAK LIFTS SSW-NNE ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE LIKELY. FARTHER EAST INTO
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CWA...PRECIP IS MOSTLY
SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WITH THIS FORCING WILL BE MORE AFFECTED BY VERY DRY AIR SEEN
ON 12Z APX SOUNDING FEEDING IN FM THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
BE HELD DOWN COMPARED TO WESTERN CWA.

PTYPE IS MAIN ISSUE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. TOP DOWN LOOK AT SOUNDINGS
SHOW NOT MUCH WARM LAYER ALOFT...SO SNOW WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
LOWER LAYERS. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS IN THE BLYR.
INITALLY LOOKED LIKE BASED ON RUC13/NAM12 OUTPUT...WHICH INITIALIZED
SURROUNDING SOUNDINGS WELL...THAT THE 950MB WET BULB TEMPS WOULD BE
ENOUGH ABOVE ZERO TO RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN. BUT...THINK THE MODELS
ARE UNDERPLAYING THE EXTENT OF DRY AIR AND ULTIMATELY THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. THIS IS SHOWING UP WITH MORE SNOW IN NORTHERN WI AND IT IS
LASTING LONGER THAN 950MB WET BULB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST. HAVE WORKED
AND REWORKED PTYPE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FOR NOW...KEPT
HIGHER PROBS FOR SNOW INTO THE EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WITH BETTER SHOT AT ONLY RAIN OVER LOWER
TERRAIN ELEVATIONS OF WEST HALF OF CWA AND ACROSS ALL EASTERN CWA
SINCE TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE ALREADY THIS
MORNING. ROAD TEMPS ALL OVER UPR MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 40S...SO DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS EVEN IF IT DOES SNOW HARDER.
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTN...UP TO AN INCH...WILL BE
ON GRASSY SURFACES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD INCREASE
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CWA. THAT STILL SEEMS ON TRACK. TOTAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
UPR MICHIGAN...WITH AMOUNTS MORE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FROM IRON
COUNTY INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. WILL BE
KEEPING THE ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW AS THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING THE MOST SNOW IS STILL PROJECTED. SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1 INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CWA...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

WARMER AND DRIER INITIALLY...WITH ONLY 1 MAIN BAND OF RELATIVELY
LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING UPPER MI...STRETCHING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THROUGH GOGEBIC CO AND NEAR MNM. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF
PRECIP FROM THERE UNTIL S WI /FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/WAA/...WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW START OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY AS N AND S
STEAM LOW NEAR FROM THE W /OVER N MN AND MO AT 00Z FRIDAY/. THE SFC
REFLECTIONS WILL NOT BE FAR OFF...WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE N 500MB LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

BACK TO THE NEAR TERM...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS OVER NE WI AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAS HELPED KEEP THE EARLY MORNING PRECIP CONFINED
MAINLY S OF THE CWA. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE DRY AIR HAS RESULTED
IN A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW S OF THE BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP AT THE LEADING EDGE THROUGH 15Z...UNTIL NEAR SFC TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN TO RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN.
GUIDANCE /AND SPECIFICALLY THE LAV/ HAS IMT SFC TEMPS HOVERING
BETWEEN 40 AND 44F FROM 13Z- 23Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY SNOW
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW. DRY AIR WILL ABOUND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 20S...WHICH COULD STILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW IN STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP IS CONFINED TO FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR AND S WI.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO CONFINE EVENT QPF OVER 0.8IN TO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION TO
OUR S AND WHAT IMPACT THAT HAS ON THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN WITH LESS QPF...WHICH WAS EXPECTED...BUT CONTINUES TO
HIT THE CENTRAL CWA FROM WATERSMEET TO MQT AND IMT WITH OVER 0.5IN
OF LIQUID THIS AFTERNOON /FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN/.
OVERALL...NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FCST...BUT EXPECT SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A
MAINLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE 20S...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND EVEN LOWER E OF ERY.

OTHERWISE...STILL HAVE 3-8IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE TRANSITIONED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NOT
CONTINUE THE SPS FOR OTHER AREAS...ALTHOUGH 12HR SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
GRASSY /AND STILL SNOW COVERED/ SURFACES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP
2-4IN. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLUSHY COULD OF INCHES.

MAY HAVE A SLOWER END OF THE HIGHER POPS THAN CURRENTLY HAVE
INDICATED AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT
DRIER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC-700MB LOW /WHICH SHOULD BE SET UP
ACROSS THE W THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z FRIDAY/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON POPS/PTYPE/
ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS ON FRI/FRI NGT. HUDSON BAY HI PRES SHOULD
BRING A DRY BUT COOL PERIOD OF WX THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI...WARM CONVEYOR BELT RIBBON OF MSTR WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AS
HI AS 4G/KG AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC UNDER DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW
AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU WRN LK SUP ARE FCST TO STILL BE
INFLUENCING THE KEWEENAW AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE CWA AT
12Z ON FRI...WITH MID LVL DRY SLOTTING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SHRTWV IMPACTING AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER. EXACTLY HOW FAR N OR S
THIS SHRTWV TRACKS W-E THRU UPR MI WL INFLUENCE HOW LONG HEAVIER
PCPN UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CAN LINGER AT ANY GIVEN
POINT...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE S OF THE H7 LO TRACK UNDER MORE
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING SEEING A QUICKER END TO THE HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/HIER RES CNDN MODEL/LOCAL WRF ARW/ECMWF HAVE
ALL TRENDED FARTHER TO THE N WITH THE SHRTWV/H7 LO TRACK AND SHOW
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING MOVING W-E THRU UPR MI AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THE PCPN BY EARLY AFTN EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME SCT RA/SN
SHOWERS OVER THE N AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO THE PATH OF
THESE FEATURES. WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING AND LESS
PCPN...BUMPED UP FCST HI TEMPS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN CWA EVEN THOUGH
LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SC TO LINGER UNDER
STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN. THE WARMEST AREA WL BE OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW WL ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLDS/WARMING. INCREASED HI TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN THIS AREA.

FRI NGT...STEADY HGT RISES/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV TO THE E WL BE INFLUENCING UPR MI...BUT SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV SLIDING SEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME HEAVIER PCPN TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LEAD
SHRTWV AND FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ITS WAKE...
PREFER THE 12Z ECWMF/00Z NAM THAT SUPPRESS THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND MAINTAIN MORE MID LVL DRYING. HOWEVER...LINGERING CYC LLVL NE
FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LGT
RA/SN SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NGT.

SAT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER STEADILY RISING HGTS...IN
LINE WITH GOING DRY FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LO
CLDS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP IN LLVL NNE FLOW WITHIN SHALLOW COOL LYR
UNDER LOWERING/STRENGTHENING INVRN...THESE CLDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME AFTN SUNSHINE...
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS RISING NO
HIER THAN -3C AND THE LLVL NNE FLOW OFF THE WATER STILL COVERED WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF ICE. HELD FCST HI TEMPS IN THE WELL BLO NORMAL
MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK SUP.

SAT NGT/SUN...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING UPR
RDG BLDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LKS TO THE NE OF POTENT
SHRTWV EMERGING OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT A
GOOD NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW DEEPER MSTR RETURNING TO THE
UPR GRT LKS WELL TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
BLDG RDG AND PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES WITH DRY ENE LLVL FLOW/
SPRING CLIMATOLOGY FOR HUDSON BAY HI PRES...SUSPECT THE 00Z ECWMF IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A DRY FCST FOR UPR MI. SINCE OTHER MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING MSTR...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE/ECMWF FCST TEMPS FOR SAT NGT...WHICH COULD BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE LO 20S.

EXTENDED...AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO/LARGER SCALE CYC
FLOW TO THE SW SLOWLY MOVE NEWD...MAINTAINED GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS
SHOWN BY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MON THRU WED TIME. TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE SLOWLY RETREATING HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND APRCHG
DEEP LO PRES WL RESULT IN STEADY/GUSTY E WINDS. FCST THERMAL FIELDS
THAT SUPPORT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ALSO INDICATE SOME OF THE PCPN
MAY BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH SN AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE FIRST ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP BROUGHT IWD DOWN TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE.
EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING CONDITIONS S TO N DURING THE DAY TODAY.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
INITIAL LINE OF PRECIP AS IT SLIDES ACROSS UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE
MAIN BATCH OF MAINLY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND S WI THIS MORNING TO
SHIFT IN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE LOW 40S...ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF
SNOW. PAVED SURFACES WARMED BY THE MID TO LATE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW INITIALLY...UNTIL NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ERODING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO MVFR TO IFR. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT CMX...AIDED BY THE ESE UPSLOPE WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER E WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW
THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
HIGH AND EVEN RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE SEEN RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND
THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC/KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 241141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

WARMER AND DRIER INITIALLY...WITH ONLY 1 MAIN BAND OF RELATIVELY
LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING UPPER MI...STRETCHING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THROUGH GOGEBIC CO AND NEAR MNM. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF
PRECIP FROM THERE UNTIL S WI /FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/WAA/...WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW START OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY AS N AND S
STEAM LOW NEAR FROM THE W /OVER N MN AND MO AT 00Z FRIDAY/. THE SFC
REFLECTIONS WILL NOT BE FAR OFF...WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE N 500MB LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

BACK TO THE NEAR TERM...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS OVER NE WI AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAS HELPED KEEP THE EARLY MORNING PRECIP CONFINED
MAINLY S OF THE CWA. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE DRY AIR HAS RESULTED
IN A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW S OF THE BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP AT THE LEADING EDGE THROUGH 15Z...UNTIL NEAR SFC TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN TO RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN.
GUIDANCE /AND SPECIFICALLY THE LAV/ HAS IMT SFC TEMPS HOVERING
BETWEEN 40 AND 44F FROM 13Z- 23Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY SNOW
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW. DRY AIR WILL ABOUND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 20S...WHICH COULD STILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW IN STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP IS CONFINED TO FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR AND S WI.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO CONFINE EVENT QPF OVER 0.8IN TO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION TO
OUR S AND WHAT IMPACT THAT HAS ON THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN WITH LESS QPF...WHICH WAS EXPECTED...BUT CONTINUES TO
HIT THE CENTRAL CWA FROM WATERSMEET TO MQT AND IMT WITH OVER 0.5IN
OF LIQUID THIS AFTERNOON /FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN/.
OVERALL...NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FCST...BUT EXPECT SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A
MAINLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE 20S...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND EVEN LOWER E OF ERY.

OTHERWISE...STILL HAVE 3-8IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE TRANSITIONED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NOT
CONTINUE THE SPS FOR OTHER AREAS...ALTHOUGH 12HR SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
GRASSY /AND STILL SNOW COVERED/ SURFACES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP
2-4IN. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLUSHY COULD OF INCHES.

MAY HAVE A SLOWER END OF THE HIGHER POPS THAN CURRENTLY HAVE
INDICATED AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT
DRIER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC-700MB LOW /WHICH SHOULD BE SET UP
ACROSS THE W THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z FRIDAY/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON POPS/PTYPE/
ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS ON FRI/FRI NGT. HUDSON BAY HI PRES SHOULD
BRING A DRY BUT COOL PERIOD OF WX THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI...WARM CONVEYOR BELT RIBBON OF MSTR WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AS
HI AS 4G/KG AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC UNDER DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW
AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU WRN LK SUP ARE FCST TO STILL BE
INFLUENCING THE KEWEENAW AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE CWA AT
12Z ON FRI...WITH MID LVL DRY SLOTTING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SHRTWV IMPACTING AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER. EXACTLY HOW FAR N OR S
THIS SHRTWV TRACKS W-E THRU UPR MI WL INFLUENCE HOW LONG HEAVIER
PCPN UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CAN LINGER AT ANY GIVEN
POINT...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE S OF THE H7 LO TRACK UNDER MORE
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING SEEING A QUICKER END TO THE HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/HIER RES CNDN MODEL/LOCAL WRF ARW/ECMWF HAVE
ALL TRENDED FARTHER TO THE N WITH THE SHRTWV/H7 LO TRACK AND SHOW
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING MOVING W-E THRU UPR MI AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THE PCPN BY EARLY AFTN EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME SCT RA/SN
SHOWERS OVER THE N AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO THE PATH OF
THESE FEATURES. WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING AND LESS
PCPN...BUMPED UP FCST HI TEMPS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN CWA EVEN THOUGH
LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SC TO LINGER UNDER
STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN. THE WARMEST AREA WL BE OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW WL ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLDS/WARMING. INCREASED HI TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN THIS AREA.

FRI NGT...STEADY HGT RISES/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV TO THE E WL BE INFLUENCING UPR MI...BUT SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV SLIDING SEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME HEAVIER PCPN TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LEAD
SHRTWV AND FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ITS WAKE...
PREFER THE 12Z ECWMF/00Z NAM THAT SUPPRESS THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND MAINTAIN MORE MID LVL DRYING. HOWEVER...LINGERING CYC LLVL NE
FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LGT
RA/SN SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NGT.

SAT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER STEADILY RISING HGTS...IN
LINE WITH GOING DRY FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LO
CLDS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP IN LLVL NNE FLOW WITHIN SHALLOW COOL LYR
UNDER LOWERING/STRENGTHENING INVRN...THESE CLDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME AFTN SUNSHINE...
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS RISING NO
HIER THAN -3C AND THE LLVL NNE FLOW OFF THE WATER STILL COVERED WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF ICE. HELD FCST HI TEMPS IN THE WELL BLO NORMAL
MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK SUP.

SAT NGT/SUN...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING UPR
RDG BLDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LKS TO THE NE OF POTENT
SHRTWV EMERGING OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT A
GOOD NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW DEEPER MSTR RETURNING TO THE
UPR GRT LKS WELL TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
BLDG RDG AND PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES WITH DRY ENE LLVL FLOW/
SPRING CLIMATOLOGY FOR HUDSON BAY HI PRES...SUSPECT THE 00Z ECWMF IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A DRY FCST FOR UPR MI. SINCE OTHER MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING MSTR...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE/ECMWF FCST TEMPS FOR SAT NGT...WHICH COULD BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE LO 20S.

EXTENDED...AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO/LARGER SCALE CYC
FLOW TO THE SW SLOWLY MOVE NEWD...MAINTAINED GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS
SHOWN BY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MON THRU WED TIME. TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE SLOWLY RETREATING HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND APRCHG
DEEP LO PRES WL RESULT IN STEADY/GUSTY E WINDS. FCST THERMAL FIELDS
THAT SUPPORT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ALSO INDICATE SOME OF THE PCPN
MAY BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH SN AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE FIRST ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP BROUGHT IWD DOWN TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE.
EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING CONDITIONS S TO N DURING THE DAY TODAY.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
INITIAL LINE OF PRECIP AS IT SLIDES ACROSS UPPER MI. LOOK FOR THE
MAIN BATCH OF MAINLY RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND S WI THIS MORNING TO
SHIFT IN THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE LOW 40S...ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF
SNOW. PAVED SURFACES WARMED BY THE MID TO LATE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW INITIALLY...UNTIL NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ERODING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO MVFR TO IFR. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT CMX...AIDED BY THE ESE UPSLOPE WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER E WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW
THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
HIGH AND EVEN RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE SEEN RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND
THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC/KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

WARMER AND DRIER INITIALLY...WITH ONLY 1 MAIN BAND OF RELATIVELY
LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING UPPER MI...STRETCHING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
THROUGH GOGEBIC CO AND NEAR MNM. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF
PRECIP FROM THERE UNTIL S WI /FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/WAA/...WHICH GOES ALONG WITH THE RELATIVELY SLOW START OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY AS N AND S
STEAM LOW NEAR FROM THE W /OVER N MN AND MO AT 00Z FRIDAY/. THE SFC
REFLECTIONS WILL NOT BE FAR OFF...WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE N 500MB LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

BACK TO THE NEAR TERM...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS OVER NE WI AND
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAS HELPED KEEP THE EARLY MORNING PRECIP CONFINED
MAINLY S OF THE CWA. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE DRY AIR HAS RESULTED
IN A FEW POCKETS OF SNOW S OF THE BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP AT THE LEADING EDGE THROUGH 15Z...UNTIL NEAR SFC TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH WITH THE LATE APRIL SUN TO RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN.
GUIDANCE /AND SPECIFICALLY THE LAV/ HAS IMT SFC TEMPS HOVERING
BETWEEN 40 AND 44F FROM 13Z- 23Z...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIKELY SNOW
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SNOW. DRY AIR WILL ABOUND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 20S...WHICH COULD STILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN QUICK BURSTS OF
SNOW IN STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP IS CONFINED TO FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR AND S WI.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO CONFINE EVENT QPF OVER 0.8IN TO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION TO
OUR S AND WHAT IMPACT THAT HAS ON THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM. THE 06Z NAM
HAS COME IN WITH LESS QPF...WHICH WAS EXPECTED...BUT CONTINUES TO
HIT THE CENTRAL CWA FROM WATERSMEET TO MQT AND IMT WITH OVER 0.5IN
OF LIQUID THIS AFTERNOON /FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN/.
OVERALL...NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FCST...BUT EXPECT SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A
MAINLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE 20S...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND EVEN LOWER E OF ERY.

OTHERWISE...STILL HAVE 3-8IN OF SNOW FCST OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE TRANSITIONED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL NOT
CONTINUE THE SPS FOR OTHER AREAS...ALTHOUGH 12HR SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS
GRASSY /AND STILL SNOW COVERED/ SURFACES MAY BE ABLE TO PICK UP
2-4IN. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLUSHY COULD OF INCHES.

MAY HAVE A SLOWER END OF THE HIGHER POPS THAN CURRENTLY HAVE
INDICATED AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT
DRIER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC-700MB LOW /WHICH SHOULD BE SET UP
ACROSS THE W THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z FRIDAY/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON POPS/PTYPE/
ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS ON FRI/FRI NGT. HUDSON BAY HI PRES SHOULD
BRING A DRY BUT COOL PERIOD OF WX THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI...WARM CONVEYOR BELT RIBBON OF MSTR WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AS
HI AS 4G/KG AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC UNDER DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW
AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU WRN LK SUP ARE FCST TO STILL BE
INFLUENCING THE KEWEENAW AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE CWA AT
12Z ON FRI...WITH MID LVL DRY SLOTTING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SHRTWV IMPACTING AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER. EXACTLY HOW FAR N OR S
THIS SHRTWV TRACKS W-E THRU UPR MI WL INFLUENCE HOW LONG HEAVIER
PCPN UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CAN LINGER AT ANY GIVEN
POINT...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE S OF THE H7 LO TRACK UNDER MORE
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING SEEING A QUICKER END TO THE HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/HIER RES CNDN MODEL/LOCAL WRF ARW/ECMWF HAVE
ALL TRENDED FARTHER TO THE N WITH THE SHRTWV/H7 LO TRACK AND SHOW
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING MOVING W-E THRU UPR MI AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THE PCPN BY EARLY AFTN EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME SCT RA/SN
SHOWERS OVER THE N AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO THE PATH OF
THESE FEATURES. WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING AND LESS
PCPN...BUMPED UP FCST HI TEMPS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN CWA EVEN THOUGH
LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SC TO LINGER UNDER
STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN. THE WARMEST AREA WL BE OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW WL ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLDS/WARMING. INCREASED HI TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN THIS AREA.

FRI NGT...STEADY HGT RISES/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV TO THE E WL BE INFLUENCING UPR MI...BUT SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV SLIDING SEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME HEAVIER PCPN TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LEAD
SHRTWV AND FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ITS WAKE...
PREFER THE 12Z ECWMF/00Z NAM THAT SUPPRESS THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND MAINTAIN MORE MID LVL DRYING. HOWEVER...LINGERING CYC LLVL NE
FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LGT
RA/SN SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NGT.

SAT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER STEADILY RISING HGTS...IN
LINE WITH GOING DRY FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LO
CLDS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP IN LLVL NNE FLOW WITHIN SHALLOW COOL LYR
UNDER LOWERING/STRENGTHENING INVRN...THESE CLDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME AFTN SUNSHINE...
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS RISING NO
HIER THAN -3C AND THE LLVL NNE FLOW OFF THE WATER STILL COVERED WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF ICE. HELD FCST HI TEMPS IN THE WELL BLO NORMAL
MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK SUP.

SAT NGT/SUN...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING UPR
RDG BLDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LKS TO THE NE OF POTENT
SHRTWV EMERGING OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT A
GOOD NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW DEEPER MSTR RETURNING TO THE
UPR GRT LKS WELL TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
BLDG RDG AND PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES WITH DRY ENE LLVL FLOW/
SPRING CLIMATOLOGY FOR HUDSON BAY HI PRES...SUSPECT THE 00Z ECWMF IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A DRY FCST FOR UPR MI. SINCE OTHER MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING MSTR...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE/ECMWF FCST TEMPS FOR SAT NGT...WHICH COULD BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE LO 20S.

EXTENDED...AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO/LARGER SCALE CYC
FLOW TO THE SW SLOWLY MOVE NEWD...MAINTAINED GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS
SHOWN BY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MON THRU WED TIME. TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE SLOWLY RETREATING HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND APRCHG
DEEP LO PRES WL RESULT IN STEADY/GUSTY E WINDS. FCST THERMAL FIELDS
THAT SUPPORT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ALSO INDICATE SOME OF THE PCPN
MAY BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH SN AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS DRY AIR LINGERS. PCPN
FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO
OVERCOME THE DRIER AT AT KIWD EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LATEST BUFKIT NAM DATA HAS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THAT AREA A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE MOVED TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN
UP A BIT THERE. OTHERWISE PCPN TO HOLD OFF AT KCMX AND KSAW UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. CONCERNS ON TIMING OF PHASE CHANGE AT ALL THREE SITES AS
NAM TRENDING A BIT WARMER...THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CIGS TO DROP FROM VFR
TO MVFR AT 18Z AT KIWD AND THEN THE OTHER SITES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PCPN PICKS UP IN INTENSITY. INTRODUCED IFR CIGS AFTER
0Z AT KSAW AND KCMX DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS...BUT SE DIRECTION IS
DOWNSLOPE AT KIWD AND THUS HAVE LEFT CIGS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR
THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER E WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW
THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
HIGH AND EVEN RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE SEEN RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND
THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC/KF









000
FXUS63 KMQT 240821
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CURVING NW AND OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST. VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PER REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS. END RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FANNING E INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WRN
CONUS TROF. DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WHERE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CHILL. TEMPS
ARE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S AWAY FROM MARINE COOLING. ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. DEEP MIXING INTO THE
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO CAUSED SFC DWPTS TO FALL AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SPREADS
E AHEAD OF THE TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL ANTECEDANT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (NOTE THE VERY DRY AIR SAMPLED ON
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS)...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INITIAL NNW-SSE ORIENTED PCPN
BAND CURRENTLY OVER MN TO SEE HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT BATTLES THE DRY
AIR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL UTILIZE MOSTLY SCHC POPS OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH CHC NEAR KIWD. PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN...BUT WITH DRY AIR/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMITED DEPTH OF
ABOVE 0C WETBULB TEMPS...THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW.

AT 12Z THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THE TROF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH
SRN SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THRU THE DAY...THE NRN WAVE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS A LITTLE S OF E WHILE THE SRN PLAINS WAVE TRACKS
SLIGHTLY N OF E. AS THE TROF SHARPENS UP/DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING
E...RIBBON OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER
LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AVBL (MIXING RATIOS 4-5G/KG ADVECTING INTO UPPER MI AROUND
750MB)...DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. FOR MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THERMAL PROFILES ON THE BORDER FOR RAIN/SNOW...AND THAT HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMTH IS A PROBLEM...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN RATES WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM DICKINSON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...NEAR SFC E
TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA...AIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW AN
EXPANSION OF SNOW PTYPE AS HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS NE THU AFTN ALONG
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 33/34F. DETERMINING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS A
CHALLENGE. SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL ON ROADWAYS UNLESS
HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. ON GROUND SURFACES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 3 POSSIBLE FROM WRN DICKINSON
INTO GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE FOCUSED ON POPS/PTYPE/
ADDITIONAL SN AMOUNTS ON FRI/FRI NGT. HUDSON BAY HI PRES SHOULD
BRING A DRY BUT COOL PERIOD OF WX THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI...WARM CONVEYOR BELT RIBBON OF MSTR WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AS
HI AS 4G/KG AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC UNDER DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW
AHEAD OF STRONG SHRTWV MOVING THRU WRN LK SUP ARE FCST TO STILL BE
INFLUENCING THE KEWEENAW AND MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE CWA AT
12Z ON FRI...WITH MID LVL DRY SLOTTING ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SHRTWV IMPACTING AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER. EXACTLY HOW FAR N OR S
THIS SHRTWV TRACKS W-E THRU UPR MI WL INFLUENCE HOW LONG HEAVIER
PCPN UNDER THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CAN LINGER AT ANY GIVEN
POINT...WITH LOCATIONS TO THE S OF THE H7 LO TRACK UNDER MORE
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRY SLOTTING SEEING A QUICKER END TO THE HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z NAM/GFS/HIER RES CNDN MODEL/LOCAL WRF ARW/ECMWF HAVE
ALL TRENDED FARTHER TO THE N WITH THE SHRTWV/H7 LO TRACK AND SHOW
AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING MOVING W-E THRU UPR MI AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THE PCPN BY EARLY AFTN EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR SOME SCT RA/SN
SHOWERS OVER THE N AND ESPECIALLY THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO THE PATH OF
THESE FEATURES. WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING AND LESS
PCPN...BUMPED UP FCST HI TEMPS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN CWA EVEN THOUGH
LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SC TO LINGER UNDER
STRENGTHENING MID LVL INVRN. THE WARMEST AREA WL BE OVER THE
SCENTRAL...WHERE DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW WL ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLDS/WARMING. INCREASED HI TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN THIS AREA.

FRI NGT...STEADY HGT RISES/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV TO THE E WL BE INFLUENCING UPR MI...BUT SOME
MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHRTWV SLIDING SEWD THRU
THE UPR LKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD DISTURBANCE BRINGING MORE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME HEAVIER PCPN TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LEAD
SHRTWV AND FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ITS WAKE...
PREFER THE 12Z ECWMF/00Z NAM THAT SUPPRESS THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND MAINTAIN MORE MID LVL DRYING. HOWEVER...LINGERING CYC LLVL NE
FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LGT
RA/SN SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NGT.

SAT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER STEADILY RISING HGTS...IN
LINE WITH GOING DRY FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LO
CLDS MAINLY NEAR LK SUP IN LLVL NNE FLOW WITHIN SHALLOW COOL LYR
UNDER LOWERING/STRENGTHENING INVRN...THESE CLDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOME AFTN SUNSHINE...
LOCATIONS NEAR LK SUP WL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH H85 TEMPS RISING NO
HIER THAN -3C AND THE LLVL NNE FLOW OFF THE WATER STILL COVERED WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF ICE. HELD FCST HI TEMPS IN THE WELL BLO NORMAL
MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK SUP.

SAT NGT/SUN...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING UPR
RDG BLDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LKS TO THE NE OF POTENT
SHRTWV EMERGING OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT A
GOOD NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW DEEPER MSTR RETURNING TO THE
UPR GRT LKS WELL TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD
BLDG RDG AND PRESENCE OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES WITH DRY ENE LLVL FLOW/
SPRING CLIMATOLOGY FOR HUDSON BAY HI PRES...SUSPECT THE 00Z ECWMF IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A DRY FCST FOR UPR MI. SINCE OTHER MODELS
ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING MSTR...TENDED TOWARD THE LO END
OF GUIDANCE/ECMWF FCST TEMPS FOR SAT NGT...WHICH COULD BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING TOWARD THE LO 20S.

EXTENDED...AS THE CLOSED LO/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO/LARGER SCALE CYC
FLOW TO THE SW SLOWLY MOVE NEWD...MAINTAINED GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS
SHOWN BY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MON THRU WED TIME. TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE SLOWLY RETREATING HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND APRCHG
DEEP LO PRES WL RESULT IN STEADY/GUSTY E WINDS. FCST THERMAL FIELDS
THAT SUPPORT WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS ALSO INDICATE SOME OF THE PCPN
MAY BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH SN AT TIMES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS DRY AIR LINGERS. PCPN
FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO
OVERCOME THE DRIER AT AT KIWD EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LATEST BUFKIT NAM DATA HAS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THAT AREA A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE MOVED TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN
UP A BIT THERE. OTHERWISE PCPN TO HOLD OFF AT KCMX AND KSAW UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. CONCERNS ON TIMING OF PHASE CHANGE AT ALL THREE SITES AS
NAM TRENDING A BIT WARMER...THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CIGS TO DROP FROM VFR
TO MVFR AT 18Z AT KIWD AND THEN THE OTHER SITES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PCPN PICKS UP IN INTENSITY. INTRODUCED IFR CIGS AFTER
0Z AT KSAW AND KCMX DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS...BUT SE DIRECTION IS
DOWNSLOPE AT KIWD AND THUS HAVE LEFT CIGS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR
THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER E WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW
THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING
HIGH AND EVEN RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WERE SEEN RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE
BANKFULL AT THIS TIME INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND
THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS. WHILE THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM...THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

MORE PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC/KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 240751
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CURVING NW AND OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST. VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PER REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS. END RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FANNING E INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WRN
CONUS TROF. DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WHERE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CHILL. TEMPS
ARE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S AWAY FROM MARINE COOLING. ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. DEEP MIXING INTO THE
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO CAUSED SFC DWPTS TO FALL AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SPREADS
E AHEAD OF THE TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL ANTECEDANT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (NOTE THE VERY DRY AIR SAMPLED ON
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS)...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INITIAL NNW-SSE ORIENTED PCPN
BAND CURRENTLY OVER MN TO SEE HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT BATTLES THE DRY
AIR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL UTILIZE MOSTLY SCHC POPS OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH CHC NEAR KIWD. PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN...BUT WITH DRY AIR/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMITED DEPTH OF
ABOVE 0C WETBULB TEMPS...THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW.

AT 12Z THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THE TROF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH
SRN SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THRU THE DAY...THE NRN WAVE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS A LITTLE S OF E WHILE THE SRN PLAINS WAVE TRACKS
SLIGHTLY N OF E. AS THE TROF SHARPENS UP/DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING
E...RIBBON OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER
LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AVBL (MIXING RATIOS 4-5G/KG ADVECTING INTO UPPER MI AROUND
750MB)...DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. FOR MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THERMAL PROFILES ON THE BORDER FOR RAIN/SNOW...AND THAT HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMTH IS A PROBLEM...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN RATES WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM DICKINSON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...NEAR SFC E
TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA...AIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW AN
EXPANSION OF SNOW PTYPE AS HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS NE THU AFTN ALONG
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 33/34F. DETERMINING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS A
CHALLENGE. SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL ON ROADWAYS UNLESS
HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. ON GROUND SURFACES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 3 POSSIBLE FROM WRN DICKINSON
INTO GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WET SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE SYSTEM...AS THAT DICTATES THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN IS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TROUGH IS FORECAST ARRIVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC TROUGH IS
IN BTWN THE TWO LOWS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH SFC LOW IS STRONGER.
TREND WAS EMERGING IN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET
THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT H85/H7/H5 WOULD BE
THE STRONGER SECTION AND THAT TROUGH WOULD REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHICH RESULTED IN LESS PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY
INTO FRIDAY. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF CLOSED OFF
IDEA WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON FRIDAY... SHOWING CLOSED OFF H5 LOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR AT
18Z ON FRIDAY WITH CLOSED OFF H7/H85 AND SFC LOWS OVER CNTRL CWA AT
THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP LINGERING
OVER NW CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE SAME THING...BUT IS NOW JOINED BY GFS AND GEM-NH...
REPRESENTING A SHIFT BACK TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING WITH THE 12Z
RUN ON TUESDAY. SWITCH SHOWS UP IN GFS RUN TOTAL QPF WITH AREAS OF
WESTERN CWA NOW SEEING WELL OVER AN INCH WHERAS PAST RUNS WERE MORE
IN THE 0.50-1.00 RANGE. OVERALL THE THEME OFFERED UP BY THE 12Z
MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR A LONGER DURATION IS
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

DIVING INTO THE SPECIFICS...INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING IS SUPPORTED IN UPPER LEVELS BY H85-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H3-H25 DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AS JET
STREAK LIFTS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING IS DUE MAINLY TO
H925-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH
290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO SYSTEM MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6G/KG ON THE 290K SFC /H8-H75/ AND AT LEAST 4G/KG
ON THE 300K SFC /NEAR H7/. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COME VIA
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
MAINLY THE H85 LOW. NAM WOULD SUGGEST TROWAL PRECIP ENHANCEMENT
COULD IMPACT KEWEENAW BASED ON THE THETA-E AT THE H65-H6 LAYER. FOR
THE FORECAST...WILL TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM...BUT KEEP
HEAVIER QPF ANCHORED IN THE 00Z-06Z FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN H7 MIXING
RATIOS TOWARD 4G/KG ARE PRESENT. AFTER THAT WILL HEAD TOWARD MORE
TONED DOWN QPF FM THE UKMET/ECMWF AND SOMEWHAT THE NAM /SUGGESTING
AROUND 0.30 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME
PERIOD WITHIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...VERSUS THE WETTER GFS AND
GEM-NH.

PTYPE AND ULTIMATELY SNOW AMOUNTS...REMAINS AN ISSUE. HOWEVER TREND
MAY BE SIGNALING MOSTLY SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF IMT TO MQT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FM NAM ARE
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR 0C THROUGH H8 AT IMT AND IWD...BUT ARE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH IN THIS LAYER AT CMX AND MQT FOR SNOW.
FARTHER EAST...AT MNM/ESC/P53 THE WARM LAYER IS TO H95/1000FT AGL OR
HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD LOWER ENOUGH BLO 1000FT AGL
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A TURNOVER TO ONLY
SNOW BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. AT ERY...COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW LIKELY DEPENDING LARGELY ON SFC TEMPS. THOUGH THE
INSOLATION AND BLYR WARMING MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW
INITIALLY LATER THURSDAY AFTN WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SNOW RATES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT
IN ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING. SREF OUTPUT BASED ON EXPECTED MODEL
SKIN TEMPS INDICATES THAT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START ACCUMLATING ON ROADS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL RATES PUSH OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR.
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CNTRL CWA TO EXCEED
6 INCHES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z
MODELS AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE
GOING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
EAST WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR SEEING ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR A WARNING FOR AREAS
FROM IRON TO MARQUETTE COUNTIES /CURRENTLY HAVE 4-7 INCHES FALLING
MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY/...AND POSSIBLY
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WILL KEEP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS ATTM. MID SHIFT CAN ASSESS AGAIN AND
DETERMINE WHETHER A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

SLOWER/MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY
EVENING BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H8 WITH TEMPS WITHIN H85
THERMAL TROUGH TOWARD -10C TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE BIGGER FACTOR. SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...BUT ENE-NE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH
KEEPS THE COOL AIR LOCKED IN. MIXING TO H9 ALONG THE BORDER SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S...15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LOT OF DRY
AIR AT H85 HOLDS ITS OWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD BE A PERIOD IN
THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THOUGH...THINKING THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
WAY NOW IT APPEARS. CUTOFF LOW COULD MAKE RUN ACROSS UPPER LAKES BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THAT IS WHEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. STAYING COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHEN THERE ARE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS. LEANED ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS DRY AIR LINGERS. PCPN
FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO
OVERCOME THE DRIER AT AT KIWD EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LATEST BUFKIT NAM DATA HAS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THAT AREA A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE MOVED TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN
UP A BIT THERE. OTHERWISE PCPN TO HOLD OFF AT KCMX AND KSAW UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. CONCERNS ON TIMING OF PHASE CHANGE AT ALL THREE SITES AS
NAM TRENDING A BIT WARMER...THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CIGS TO DROP FROM VFR
TO MVFR AT 18Z AT KIWD AND THEN THE OTHER SITES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PCPN PICKS UP IN INTENSITY. INTRODUCED IFR CIGS AFTER
0Z AT KSAW AND KCMX DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS...BUT SE DIRECTION IS
DOWNSLOPE AT KIWD AND THUS HAVE LEFT CIGS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR
THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SE GUSTS WILL NEAR 30-35KTS
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER E WINDS NEARING 25-30KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...IN BETWEEN THE EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND NEARING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN
RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE ABOVE BANKFUL AT THIS TIME
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS. NEITHER OF THESE RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.70-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240406
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1206 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CURVING NW AND OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST. VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PER REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS. END RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FANNING E INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WRN
CONUS TROF. DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WHERE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CHILL. TEMPS
ARE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S AWAY FROM MARINE COOLING. ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. DEEP MIXING INTO THE
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO CAUSED SFC DWPTS TO FALL AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SPREADS
E AHEAD OF THE TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL ANTECEDANT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (NOTE THE VERY DRY AIR SAMPLED ON
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS)...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INITIAL NNW-SSE ORIENTED PCPN
BAND CURRENTLY OVER MN TO SEE HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT BATTLES THE DRY
AIR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL UTILIZE MOSTLY SCHC POPS OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH CHC NEAR KIWD. PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN...BUT WITH DRY AIR/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMITED DEPTH OF
ABOVE 0C WETBULB TEMPS...THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW.

AT 12Z THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THE TROF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH
SRN SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THRU THE DAY...THE NRN WAVE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS A LITTLE S OF E WHILE THE SRN PLAINS WAVE TRACKS
SLIGHTLY N OF E. AS THE TROF SHARPENS UP/DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING
E...RIBBON OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER
LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AVBL (MIXING RATIOS 4-5G/KG ADVECTING INTO UPPER MI AROUND
750MB)...DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. FOR MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THERMAL PROFILES ON THE BORDER FOR RAIN/SNOW...AND THAT HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMTH IS A PROBLEM...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN RATES WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM DICKINSON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...NEAR SFC E
TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA...AIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW AN
EXPANSION OF SNOW PTYPE AS HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS NE THU AFTN ALONG
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 33/34F. DETERMINING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS A
CHALLENGE. SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL ON ROADWAYS UNLESS
HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. ON GROUND SURFACES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 3 POSSIBLE FROM WRN DICKINSON
INTO GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WET SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE SYSTEM...AS THAT DICTATES THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN IS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TROUGH IS FORECAST ARRIVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC TROUGH IS
IN BTWN THE TWO LOWS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH SFC LOW IS STRONGER.
TREND WAS EMERGING IN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET
THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT H85/H7/H5 WOULD BE
THE STRONGER SECTION AND THAT TROUGH WOULD REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHICH RESULTED IN LESS PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY
INTO FRIDAY. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF CLOSED OFF
IDEA WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON FRIDAY... SHOWING CLOSED OFF H5 LOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR AT
18Z ON FRIDAY WITH CLOSED OFF H7/H85 AND SFC LOWS OVER CNTRL CWA AT
THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP LINGERING
OVER NW CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE SAME THING...BUT IS NOW JOINED BY GFS AND GEM-NH...
REPRESENTING A SHIFT BACK TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING WITH THE 12Z
RUN ON TUESDAY. SWITCH SHOWS UP IN GFS RUN TOTAL QPF WITH AREAS OF
WESTERN CWA NOW SEEING WELL OVER AN INCH WHERAS PAST RUNS WERE MORE
IN THE 0.50-1.00 RANGE. OVERALL THE THEME OFFERED UP BY THE 12Z
MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR A LONGER DURATION IS
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

DIVING INTO THE SPECIFICS...INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING IS SUPPORTED IN UPPER LEVELS BY H85-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H3-H25 DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AS JET
STREAK LIFTS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING IS DUE MAINLY TO
H925-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH
290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO SYSTEM MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6G/KG ON THE 290K SFC /H8-H75/ AND AT LEAST 4G/KG
ON THE 300K SFC /NEAR H7/. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COME VIA
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
MAINLY THE H85 LOW. NAM WOULD SUGGEST TROWAL PRECIP ENHANCEMENT
COULD IMPACT KEWEENAW BASED ON THE THETA-E AT THE H65-H6 LAYER. FOR
THE FORECAST...WILL TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM...BUT KEEP
HEAVIER QPF ANCHORED IN THE 00Z-06Z FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN H7 MIXING
RATIOS TOWARD 4G/KG ARE PRESENT. AFTER THAT WILL HEAD TOWARD MORE
TONED DOWN QPF FM THE UKMET/ECMWF AND SOMEWHAT THE NAM /SUGGESTING
AROUND 0.30 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME
PERIOD WITHIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...VERSUS THE WETTER GFS AND
GEM-NH.

PTYPE AND ULTIMATELY SNOW AMOUNTS...REMAINS AN ISSUE. HOWEVER TREND
MAY BE SIGNALING MOSTLY SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF IMT TO MQT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FM NAM ARE
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR 0C THROUGH H8 AT IMT AND IWD...BUT ARE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH IN THIS LAYER AT CMX AND MQT FOR SNOW.
FARTHER EAST...AT MNM/ESC/P53 THE WARM LAYER IS TO H95/1000FT AGL OR
HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD LOWER ENOUGH BLO 1000FT AGL
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A TURNOVER TO ONLY
SNOW BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. AT ERY...COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW LIKELY DEPENDING LARGELY ON SFC TEMPS. THOUGH THE
INSOLATION AND BLYR WARMING MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW
INITIALLY LATER THURSDAY AFTN WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SNOW RATES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT
IN ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING. SREF OUTPUT BASED ON EXPECTED MODEL
SKIN TEMPS INDICATES THAT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START ACCUMLATING ON ROADS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL RATES PUSH OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR.
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CNTRL CWA TO EXCEED
6 INCHES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z
MODELS AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE
GOING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
EAST WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR SEEING ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR A WARNING FOR AREAS
FROM IRON TO MARQUETTE COUNTIES /CURRENTLY HAVE 4-7 INCHES FALLING
MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY/...AND POSSIBLY
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WILL KEEP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS ATTM. MID SHIFT CAN ASSESS AGAIN AND
DETERMINE WHETHER A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

SLOWER/MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY
EVENING BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H8 WITH TEMPS WITHIN H85
THERMAL TROUGH TOWARD -10C TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE BIGGER FACTOR. SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...BUT ENE-NE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH
KEEPS THE COOL AIR LOCKED IN. MIXING TO H9 ALONG THE BORDER SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S...15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LOT OF DRY
AIR AT H85 HOLDS ITS OWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD BE A PERIOD IN
THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THOUGH...THINKING THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
WAY NOW IT APPEARS. CUTOFF LOW COULD MAKE RUN ACROSS UPPER LAKES BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THAT IS WHEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. STAYING COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHEN THERE ARE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS. LEANED ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS DRY AIR LINGERS. PCPN
FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STRUGGLING TO
OVERCOME THE DRIER AT AT KIWD EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LATEST BUFKIT NAM DATA HAS LIGHT RAIN REACHING THAT AREA A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAVE MOVED TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN
UP A BIT THERE. OTHERWISE PCPN TO HOLD OFF AT KCMX AND KSAW UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. CONCERNS ON TIMING OF PHASE CHANGE AT ALL THREE SITES AS
NAM TRENDING A BIT WARMER...THUS AT THIS TIME HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CIGS TO DROP FROM VFR
TO MVFR AT 18Z AT KIWD AND THEN THE OTHER SITES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS PCPN PICKS UP IN INTENSITY. INTRODUCED IFR CIGS AFTER
0Z AT KSAW AND KCMX DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS...BUT SE DIRECTION IS
DOWNSLOPE AT KIWD AND THUS HAVE LEFT CIGS AT THE LOW END OF MVFR
THERE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW
IS TRENDING STRONGER...SO EAST WINDS MAY REACH 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTN AFTER
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. POSSIBLE THAT SOME GALE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONGER EAST
WINDS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN
RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE ABOVE BANKFUL AT THIS TIME
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS. NEITHER OF THESE RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.70-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 232326
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
726 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CURVING NW AND OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST. VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PER REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS. END RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FANNING E INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WRN
CONUS TROF. DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WHERE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CHILL. TEMPS
ARE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S AWAY FROM MARINE COOLING. ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. DEEP MIXING INTO THE
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO CAUSED SFC DWPTS TO FALL AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SPREADS
E AHEAD OF THE TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL ANTECEDANT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (NOTE THE VERY DRY AIR SAMPLED ON
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS)...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INITIAL NNW-SSE ORIENTED PCPN
BAND CURRENTLY OVER MN TO SEE HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT BATTLES THE DRY
AIR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL UTILIZE MOSTLY SCHC POPS OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH CHC NEAR KIWD. PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN...BUT WITH DRY AIR/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMITED DEPTH OF
ABOVE 0C WETBULB TEMPS...THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW.

AT 12Z THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THE TROF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH
SRN SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THRU THE DAY...THE NRN WAVE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS A LITTLE S OF E WHILE THE SRN PLAINS WAVE TRACKS
SLIGHTLY N OF E. AS THE TROF SHARPENS UP/DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING
E...RIBBON OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER
LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AVBL (MIXING RATIOS 4-5G/KG ADVECTING INTO UPPER MI AROUND
750MB)...DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. FOR MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THERMAL PROFILES ON THE BORDER FOR RAIN/SNOW...AND THAT HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMTH IS A PROBLEM...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN RATES WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM DICKINSON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...NEAR SFC E
TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA...AIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW AN
EXPANSION OF SNOW PTYPE AS HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS NE THU AFTN ALONG
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 33/34F. DETERMINING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS A
CHALLENGE. SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL ON ROADWAYS UNLESS
HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. ON GROUND SURFACES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 3 POSSIBLE FROM WRN DICKINSON
INTO GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WET SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE SYSTEM...AS THAT DICTATES THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN IS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TROUGH IS FORECAST ARRIVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC TROUGH IS
IN BTWN THE TWO LOWS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH SFC LOW IS STRONGER.
TREND WAS EMERGING IN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET
THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT H85/H7/H5 WOULD BE
THE STRONGER SECTION AND THAT TROUGH WOULD REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHICH RESULTED IN LESS PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY
INTO FRIDAY. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF CLOSED OFF
IDEA WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON FRIDAY... SHOWING CLOSED OFF H5 LOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR AT
18Z ON FRIDAY WITH CLOSED OFF H7/H85 AND SFC LOWS OVER CNTRL CWA AT
THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP LINGERING
OVER NW CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE SAME THING...BUT IS NOW JOINED BY GFS AND GEM-NH...
REPRESENTING A SHIFT BACK TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING WITH THE 12Z
RUN ON TUESDAY. SWITCH SHOWS UP IN GFS RUN TOTAL QPF WITH AREAS OF
WESTERN CWA NOW SEEING WELL OVER AN INCH WHERAS PAST RUNS WERE MORE
IN THE 0.50-1.00 RANGE. OVERALL THE THEME OFFERED UP BY THE 12Z
MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR A LONGER DURATION IS
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

DIVING INTO THE SPECIFICS...INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING IS SUPPORTED IN UPPER LEVELS BY H85-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H3-H25 DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AS JET
STREAK LIFTS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING IS DUE MAINLY TO
H925-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH
290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO SYSTEM MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6G/KG ON THE 290K SFC /H8-H75/ AND AT LEAST 4G/KG
ON THE 300K SFC /NEAR H7/. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COME VIA
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
MAINLY THE H85 LOW. NAM WOULD SUGGEST TROWAL PRECIP ENHANCEMENT
COULD IMPACT KEWEENAW BASED ON THE THETA-E AT THE H65-H6 LAYER. FOR
THE FORECAST...WILL TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM...BUT KEEP
HEAVIER QPF ANCHORED IN THE 00Z-06Z FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN H7 MIXING
RATIOS TOWARD 4G/KG ARE PRESENT. AFTER THAT WILL HEAD TOWARD MORE
TONED DOWN QPF FM THE UKMET/ECMWF AND SOMEWHAT THE NAM /SUGGESTING
AROUND 0.30 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME
PERIOD WITHIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...VERSUS THE WETTER GFS AND
GEM-NH.

PTYPE AND ULTIMATELY SNOW AMOUNTS...REMAINS AN ISSUE. HOWEVER TREND
MAY BE SIGNALING MOSTLY SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF IMT TO MQT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FM NAM ARE
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR 0C THROUGH H8 AT IMT AND IWD...BUT ARE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH IN THIS LAYER AT CMX AND MQT FOR SNOW.
FARTHER EAST...AT MNM/ESC/P53 THE WARM LAYER IS TO H95/1000FT AGL OR
HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD LOWER ENOUGH BLO 1000FT AGL
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A TURNOVER TO ONLY
SNOW BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. AT ERY...COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW LIKELY DEPENDING LARGELY ON SFC TEMPS. THOUGH THE
INSOLATION AND BLYR WARMING MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW
INITIALLY LATER THURSDAY AFTN WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SNOW RATES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT
IN ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING. SREF OUTPUT BASED ON EXPECTED MODEL
SKIN TEMPS INDICATES THAT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START ACCUMLATING ON ROADS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL RATES PUSH OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR.
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CNTRL CWA TO EXCEED
6 INCHES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z
MODELS AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE
GOING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
EAST WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR SEEING ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR A WARNING FOR AREAS
FROM IRON TO MARQUETTE COUNTIES /CURRENTLY HAVE 4-7 INCHES FALLING
MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY/...AND POSSIBLY
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WILL KEEP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS ATTM. MID SHIFT CAN ASSESS AGAIN AND
DETERMINE WHETHER A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

SLOWER/MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY
EVENING BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H8 WITH TEMPS WITHIN H85
THERMAL TROUGH TOWARD -10C TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE BIGGER FACTOR. SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...BUT ENE-NE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH
KEEPS THE COOL AIR LOCKED IN. MIXING TO H9 ALONG THE BORDER SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S...15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LOT OF DRY
AIR AT H85 HOLDS ITS OWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD BE A PERIOD IN
THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THOUGH...THINKING THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
WAY NOW IT APPEARS. CUTOFF LOW COULD MAKE RUN ACROSS UPPER LAKES BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THAT IS WHEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. STAYING COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHEN THERE ARE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS. LEANED ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BUT THE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS PORTENDS THE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
CIGS LOWER WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR WILL
ERODE BEFORE PCPN CAN START AND CIGS FALL BELOW VFR THE QUESTION AT
THIS TIME. CURRENTLY EXPECT PCPN TO ARRIVE AT KIWD AT 12Z WITH CIGS
FALLING TO MVFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIGHT RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS CIGS SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...WITH SNOW EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL SEE MIXED
PCPN AND CIGS DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE BY 20Z. AT KSAW...CIGS STAY
VFR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR PERSISTS THERE A BIT
LONGER...BUT THEN THEY TOO WILL SEE CIGS DROP INTO MVFR RANGE WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW
IS TRENDING STRONGER...SO EAST WINDS MAY REACH 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTN AFTER
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. POSSIBLE THAT SOME GALE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONGER EAST
WINDS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN
RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE ABOVE BANKFUL AT THIS TIME
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS. NEITHER OF THESE RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.70-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 232108
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF SWEEPING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WITH AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES THEN CURVING NW AND OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST. VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PER REGIONAL
12Z RAOBS. END RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FANNING E INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WRN
CONUS TROF. DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED DEEP MIXING IN THE INTERIOR WHERE
TEMPS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CHILL. TEMPS
ARE INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S AWAY FROM MARINE COOLING. ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. DEEP MIXING INTO THE
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ALSO CAUSED SFC DWPTS TO FALL AS LOW AS THE MID
TEENS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTING E FROM THE
WRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SPREADS
E AHEAD OF THE TROF MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL ANTECEDANT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE (NOTE THE VERY DRY AIR SAMPLED ON
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS)...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INITIAL NNW-SSE ORIENTED PCPN
BAND CURRENTLY OVER MN TO SEE HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT BATTLES THE DRY
AIR THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL UTILIZE MOSTLY SCHC POPS OVER FAR
WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT WITH CHC NEAR KIWD. PTYPE WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN...BUT WITH DRY AIR/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LIMITED DEPTH OF
ABOVE 0C WETBULB TEMPS...THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW.

AT 12Z THU...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE WRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THE TROF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN MT/WRN ND WITH
SRN SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THRU THE DAY...THE NRN WAVE WILL
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS A LITTLE S OF E WHILE THE SRN PLAINS WAVE TRACKS
SLIGHTLY N OF E. AS THE TROF SHARPENS UP/DEEPENS WHILE SHIFTING
E...RIBBON OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER
LAKES ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE AVBL (MIXING RATIOS 4-5G/KG ADVECTING INTO UPPER MI AROUND
750MB)...DECENT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. FOR MANY DAYS...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN THERMAL PROFILES ON THE BORDER FOR RAIN/SNOW...AND THAT HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMTH IS A PROBLEM...BUT IT APPEARS PCPN RATES WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM DICKINSON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...NEAR SFC E
TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA...AIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THUS...GRIDS WILL SHOW AN
EXPANSION OF SNOW PTYPE AS HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS NE THU AFTN ALONG
WITH SFC TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 33/34F. DETERMINING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS LATE IN THE SEASON WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE IS A
CHALLENGE. SNOW MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH IF AT ALL ON ROADWAYS UNLESS
HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING. ON GROUND SURFACES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 3 POSSIBLE FROM WRN DICKINSON
INTO GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WET SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE SYSTEM...AS THAT DICTATES THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN IS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TROUGH IS FORECAST ARRIVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC TROUGH IS
IN BTWN THE TWO LOWS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH SFC LOW IS STRONGER.
TREND WAS EMERGING IN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET
THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT H85/H7/H5 WOULD BE
THE STRONGER SECTION AND THAT TROUGH WOULD REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHICH RESULTED IN LESS PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY
INTO FRIDAY. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF CLOSED OFF
IDEA WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON FRIDAY... SHOWING CLOSED OFF H5 LOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR AT
18Z ON FRIDAY WITH CLOSED OFF H7/H85 AND SFC LOWS OVER CNTRL CWA AT
THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP LINGERING
OVER NW CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE SAME THING...BUT IS NOW JOINED BY GFS AND GEM-NH...
REPRESENTING A SHIFT BACK TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING WITH THE 12Z
RUN ON TUESDAY. SWITCH SHOWS UP IN GFS RUN TOTAL QPF WITH AREAS OF
WESTERN CWA NOW SEEING WELL OVER AN INCH WHERAS PAST RUNS WERE MORE
IN THE 0.50-1.00 RANGE. OVERALL THE THEME OFFERED UP BY THE 12Z
MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR A LONGER DURATION IS
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

DIVING INTO THE SPECIFICS...INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING IS SUPPORTED IN UPPER LEVELS BY H85-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H3-H25 DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AS JET
STREAK LIFTS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING IS DUE MAINLY TO
H925-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH
290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO SYSTEM MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6G/KG ON THE 290K SFC /H8-H75/ AND AT LEAST 4G/KG
ON THE 300K SFC /NEAR H7/. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COME VIA
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
MAINLY THE H85 LOW. NAM WOULD SUGGEST TROWAL PRECIP ENHANCEMENT
COULD IMPACT KEWEENAW BASED ON THE THETA-E AT THE H65-H6 LAYER. FOR
THE FORECAST...WILL TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM...BUT KEEP
HEAVIER QPF ANCHORED IN THE 00Z-06Z FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN H7 MIXING
RATIOS TOWARD 4G/KG ARE PRESENT. AFTER THAT WILL HEAD TOWARD MORE
TONED DOWN QPF FM THE UKMET/ECMWF AND SOMEWHAT THE NAM /SUGGESTING
AROUND 0.30 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME
PERIOD WITHIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...VERSUS THE WETTER GFS AND
GEM-NH.

PTYPE AND ULTIMATELY SNOW AMOUNTS...REMAINS AN ISSUE. HOWEVER TREND
MAY BE SIGNALING MOSTLY SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF IMT TO MQT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FM NAM ARE
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR 0C THROUGH H8 AT IMT AND IWD...BUT ARE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH IN THIS LAYER AT CMX AND MQT FOR SNOW.
FARTHER EAST...AT MNM/ESC/P53 THE WARM LAYER IS TO H95/1000FT AGL OR
HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD LOWER ENOUGH BLO 1000FT AGL
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A TURNOVER TO ONLY
SNOW BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. AT ERY...COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW LIKELY DEPENDING LARGELY ON SFC TEMPS. THOUGH THE
INSOLATION AND BLYR WARMING MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW
INITIALLY LATER THURSDAY AFTN WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SNOW RATES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT
IN ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING. SREF OUTPUT BASED ON EXPECTED MODEL
SKIN TEMPS INDICATES THAT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START ACCUMLATING ON ROADS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL RATES PUSH OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR.
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CNTRL CWA TO EXCEED
6 INCHES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z
MODELS AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE
GOING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
EAST WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR SEEING ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR A WARNING FOR AREAS
FROM IRON TO MARQUETTE COUNTIES /CURRENTLY HAVE 4-7 INCHES FALLING
MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY/...AND POSSIBLY
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WILL KEEP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS ATTM. MID SHIFT CAN ASSESS AGAIN AND
DETERMINE WHETHER A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

SLOWER/MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY
EVENING BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H8 WITH TEMPS WITHIN H85
THERMAL TROUGH TOWARD -10C TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE BIGGER FACTOR. SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...BUT ENE-NE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH
KEEPS THE COOL AIR LOCKED IN. MIXING TO H9 ALONG THE BORDER SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S...15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LOT OF DRY
AIR AT H85 HOLDS ITS OWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD BE A PERIOD IN
THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THOUGH...THINKING THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
WAY NOW IT APPEARS. CUTOFF LOW COULD MAKE RUN ACROSS UPPER LAKES BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THAT IS WHEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. STAYING COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHEN THERE ARE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS. LEANED ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER AT THE LOW
LEVELS THRU TONIGHT...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN
OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PROBABLY REACH KIWD EARLY THU
MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WILL WORK TO SLOW E/NE PROGRESSION OF PCPN.
BY LATE MORNING...PCPN IS LIKELY AT KIWD ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
PCPN (SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN) SHOULD BE CLOSE TO KCMX/KSAW BY 18Z AND WILL
CERTAINLY BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW
IS TRENDING STRONGER...SO EAST WINDS MAY REACH 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTN AFTER
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. POSSIBLE THAT SOME GALE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONGER EAST
WINDS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN
RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE ABOVE BANKFUL AT THIS TIME
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS. NEITHER OF THESE RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.70-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 232106
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
506 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS AS AS HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAM IN FROM THE
W...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LATE SEASON WINTER WX EVENT.

FOR TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP TOPPING OUT AROUND 10F WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND MUCH WARMER AIR
SLIDING IN. THAT WILL MEAN TEMPS NEARING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING -7C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO AN
AVERAGE -1C BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...DEW
POINTS COULD MIX DOWN TO SEE RH VALUES FALLING 20-25 PERCENT NEAR
THE WI BORDER. CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER FCST.

ESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FAR W AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP SFC TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
CENTRAL AND E ARE A BIT TRICKIER...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS. MID 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE
SLOWING TREND OF INCOMING WAA PRECIP CONTINUES...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW PUSHING INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY AS
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

WET SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE SYSTEM...AS THAT DICTATES THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTN IS THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TROUGH IS FORECAST ARRIVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC TROUGH IS
IN BTWN THE TWO LOWS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHICH SFC LOW IS STRONGER.
TREND WAS EMERGING IN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET
THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT H85/H7/H5 WOULD BE
THE STRONGER SECTION AND THAT TROUGH WOULD REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE
WHICH RESULTED IN LESS PRECIP LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY
INTO FRIDAY. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF CLOSED OFF
IDEA WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MORE WRAPPED UP WITH THE UPPER LOW
ON FRIDAY... SHOWING CLOSED OFF H5 LOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR AT
18Z ON FRIDAY WITH CLOSED OFF H7/H85 AND SFC LOWS OVER CNTRL CWA AT
THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN DEFORMATION AXIS OF PRECIP LINGERING
OVER NW CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE SAME THING...BUT IS NOW JOINED BY GFS AND GEM-NH...
REPRESENTING A SHIFT BACK TO WHAT THE GFS WAS SHOWING WITH THE 12Z
RUN ON TUESDAY. SWITCH SHOWS UP IN GFS RUN TOTAL QPF WITH AREAS OF
WESTERN CWA NOW SEEING WELL OVER AN INCH WHERAS PAST RUNS WERE MORE
IN THE 0.50-1.00 RANGE. OVERALL THE THEME OFFERED UP BY THE 12Z
MODELS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR A LONGER DURATION IS
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA...INCLUDING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

DIVING INTO THE SPECIFICS...INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING IS SUPPORTED IN UPPER LEVELS BY H85-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND H3-H25 DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW AS JET
STREAK LIFTS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES FM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING IS DUE MAINLY TO
H925-H85 THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC-H85 TROUGH ALONG WITH
290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO SYSTEM MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVIER PRECIP WITH
MIXING RATIOS OF 4-6G/KG ON THE 290K SFC /H8-H75/ AND AT LEAST 4G/KG
ON THE 300K SFC /NEAR H7/. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL COME VIA
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEFORMATION ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
MAINLY THE H85 LOW. NAM WOULD SUGGEST TROWAL PRECIP ENHANCEMENT
COULD IMPACT KEWEENAW BASED ON THE THETA-E AT THE H65-H6 LAYER. FOR
THE FORECAST...WILL TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM...BUT KEEP
HEAVIER QPF ANCHORED IN THE 00Z-06Z FRIDAY PERIOD WHEN H7 MIXING
RATIOS TOWARD 4G/KG ARE PRESENT. AFTER THAT WILL HEAD TOWARD MORE
TONED DOWN QPF FM THE UKMET/ECMWF AND SOMEWHAT THE NAM /SUGGESTING
AROUND 0.30 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS NEAR 0.50 INCH IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME
PERIOD WITHIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP...VERSUS THE WETTER GFS AND
GEM-NH.

PTYPE AND ULTIMATELY SNOW AMOUNTS...REMAINS AN ISSUE. HOWEVER TREND
MAY BE SIGNALING MOSTLY SNOW FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF IMT TO MQT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FM NAM ARE
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND NEAR 0C THROUGH H8 AT IMT AND IWD...BUT ARE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH IN THIS LAYER AT CMX AND MQT FOR SNOW.
FARTHER EAST...AT MNM/ESC/P53 THE WARM LAYER IS TO H95/1000FT AGL OR
HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD LOWER ENOUGH BLO 1000FT AGL
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A TURNOVER TO ONLY
SNOW BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. AT ERY...COULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE
MAINLY SNOW LIKELY DEPENDING LARGELY ON SFC TEMPS. THOUGH THE
INSOLATION AND BLYR WARMING MAY MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW
INITIALLY LATER THURSDAY AFTN WOULD EXPECT BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...INCREASING SNOW RATES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION WILL RESULT
IN ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING. SREF OUTPUT BASED ON EXPECTED MODEL
SKIN TEMPS INDICATES THAT BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW WOULD START ACCUMLATING ON ROADS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL RATES PUSH OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR.
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR CNTRL CWA TO EXCEED
6 INCHES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z
MODELS AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...WILL BE
GOING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
EAST WINDS GUST 20-30 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR SEEING ENOUGH SNOWFALL FOR A WARNING FOR AREAS
FROM IRON TO MARQUETTE COUNTIES /CURRENTLY HAVE 4-7 INCHES FALLING
MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTN THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY/...AND POSSIBLY
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WILL KEEP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS ATTM. MID SHIFT CAN ASSESS AGAIN AND
DETERMINE WHETHER A WARNING OR ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

SLOWER/MORE CLOSED OFF SYSTEM RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SCOUR OUT FRIDAY
EVENING BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO H8 WITH TEMPS WITHIN H85
THERMAL TROUGH TOWARD -10C TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING. BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...H85 MOISTURE LEAVES THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE BIGGER FACTOR. SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DOMINATES...BUT ENE-NE WINDS OUT OF THE HIGH
KEEPS THE COOL AIR LOCKED IN. MIXING TO H9 ALONG THE BORDER SUPPORTS
HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S...15-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A LOT OF DRY
AIR AT H85 HOLDS ITS OWN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD BE A PERIOD IN
THERE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE INCREASE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THOUGH...THINKING THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
WAY NOW IT APPEARS. CUTOFF LOW COULD MAKE RUN ACROSS UPPER LAKES BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THAT IS WHEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. STAYING COOL...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHEN THERE ARE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS. LEANED ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONSENSUS WAS USED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER AT THE LOW
LEVELS THRU TONIGHT...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN
OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PROBABLY REACH KIWD EARLY THU
MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WILL WORK TO SLOW E/NE PROGRESSION OF PCPN.
BY LATE MORNING...PCPN IS LIKELY AT KIWD ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
PCPN (SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN) SHOULD BE CLOSE TO KCMX/KSAW BY 18Z AND WILL
CERTAINLY BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW
IS TRENDING STRONGER...SO EAST WINDS MAY REACH 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS BY FRIDAY AFTN AFTER
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. POSSIBLE THAT SOME GALE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH BLO 20 KTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONGER EAST
WINDS WOULD BE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 503 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SO SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL
RISING SLOWLY...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN
RECENTLY. LOCATIONS THAT STILL ARE ABOVE BANKFUL AT THIS TIME
INCLUDE THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHASSELL AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR
CRYSTAL FALLS. NEITHER OF THESE RIVERS IS EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD
STAGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS AT THE SHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.70-1.25 INCH
OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 231728
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS AS AS HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAM IN FROM THE
W...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LATE SEASON WINTER WX EVENT.

FOR TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP TOPPING OUT AROUND 10F WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND MUCH WARMER AIR
SLIDING IN. THAT WILL MEAN TEMPS NEARING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING -7C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO AN
AVERAGE -1C BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...DEW
POINTS COULD MIX DOWN TO SEE RH VALUES FALLING 20-25 PERCENT NEAR
THE WI BORDER. CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER FCST.

ESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FAR W AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP SFC TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
CENTRAL AND E ARE A BIT TRICKIER...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS. MID 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE
SLOWING TREND OF INCOMING WAA PRECIP CONTINUES...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW PUSHING INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY AS
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PCPN ON THU INTO EARLY FRI AS WELL AS PTYPE.

AT 12Z THU...THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV WL BE LOCATED NEAR THE CNDN
BORDER WITH MONTANA WHILE THE SRN DISTUBANCE SHIFTS E INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES CENTERS NEARBY.
DESPITE THE SEPARATION BTWN THE INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS...MODEL FCST RH
FIELDS SHOW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AREA OF HIER RH EXTENDING FM MN INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER OVERAL SE FLOW TO THE E OF LARGER SCALE LO PRES
TROF IN THE PLAINS. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THIS BAND AT THE
LATITUDE OF UPR MI IS FCST TO BE ABOUT 4 G/KG...BOOSTED BY H85 S
WINDS FCST UP TO 35-50 KTS E OF THE LARGER SCALE TROF AXIS. SO EVEN
THOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SRN SHRTWV WL REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE NRN DISTURBANCE AND THAT ONLY THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV
WL IMPACT THE CWA AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE TO THE E THRU FRI...
THERE WL BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBL FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY PCPN OVER UPR
MI AS THESE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE UPR LKS RESPECTIVELY BY 12Z FRI. DIFFLUENT H3
FLOW/SHARP H4-2 DVGC E OF THE ARPCHG NRN SHRTWV WL ALSO ACT TO
ENHANCE PCPN RATES OVER THE CWA.

THE 00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE THE NRN SHRTWV WL TRACK THRU CENTRAL UPR
MI...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOST LIKELY TO THE N OF THE H85-7-5 LO
TRACK FM ABOUT IRONWOOD/ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE BEFORE THE PCPN
SLOWLY DIMNISHES ON FRI WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV INTO SE ONTARIO.
BUT THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 22/12Z AND 23/00Z ECMWF SHOW A FARTHER N
TRACK FOR THE NRN SHRTWV AND H85-7 LO ACRS THE NRN KEWEENAW...WITH
EARLIER DRY SLOTTING BY 06Z-12Z FRI AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT
SEEMS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE NCEP MODELS. 24 HR PCPN TOTALS THRU 12Z
FRI SHOWN BY THE NCEP MODELS RANGE FM 0.65-1.10 INCH...LEAST OVER
THE SE AND GREATEST OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO
FCST TRACK. IN CONTRAST...THE 22/12Z ECWMF SHOWED 24 HR PCPN RANGING
FM 0.50 INCH OVER THE SE TO 0.75 INCH OVER THE KEWEENAW.

A MAJOR CONCERN THIS LATE IN THE SEASON IS ON PTYPE AND HOW SFC
TEMPS WL IMPACT SN ACCUM RATES. MODELS SHOW PCPN ARRIVING W-E ON
THU...REACHING NEWBERRY BY LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PCPN WL BE
ARRIVING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...WHEN H100-85 THKNS ARE FCST IN THE
1305-1310M RANGE...SUSPECT THE PCPN WL START AS RA OR A RA/SN MIX
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE INITALLY
DRY LLVL AIR. EVEN WHERE SN IS MIXED IN WITH THE PCPN...EXPECT LTL
IF ANY SN ACCUMULATION ON WARMER SFCS LIKE ROADS. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DYNAMIC COOLING WL ALLOW THE PCPN TO CHG TO PRIMARILY SN BY
00Z FRI AS H100-85 THKNS FALL TO 1295-1305M...ESPECIALLY AT
LOCATIONS TO THE N OF THE H85 LO TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM NEAR
SFC TEMPS...A HI AND THIN DGZ WL ALSO REDUCE SN/WATER RATIOS AND
MAKE THIS SN PARTICULARLY WET AND HEAVY. BEST BET ATTM IS FOR SN
TOTALS TO REACH 6 TO PERHAPS 8 INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW GIVEN THE MORE FVRBL LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE H85-7 LO
TRACK. OTHER HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA MAY
SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE FCST H85-7 LO TRACK ARGUES FOR MAINLY RA AND
LTL SN ACCUM OVER THE SE PORTION OF UPR MI.

SUSPECT FUTURE SHIFTS WL NEED TO ISSUE WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE HIER
TERRAIN OF NW UPR MI. GIVEN THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON SHRTWV LO TRACKS
AND THE IMPACT OF TEMPS ON SN ACCUM RATES FOR A MAINLY 4TH PERIOD SN
FALL...OPTED TO UPDATE GOING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

FRI NGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV DIVING ESEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND
DEPARTING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME LGT SN/RA TO THE CWA. THE 00Z CNDN
MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND GENERATES ANOTERH 0.50
INCH OF PCPN NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THIS STRONGER/WETTER SCENARIO
SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE HGT RISES/DRYING THAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER UPR MI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INITIAL
STRONGER NRN SHRTWV.

EXTENDED...THE NW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG BLDG IN THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO PRES AND TO THE S OF SPRAWLING HI PRES OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA ARE FCST TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS STARTING
ON SAT. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING NE
OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING A RETURN OF PCPN AS EARLY AS SUN
NGTCONSIDERING THIS HUDSON BAY HI AND THE LIKELY DRY NNE FEED OF DRY
AIR THAT WL IMPACT THE AREA/CLIMATOLOGY OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES
SYSTEMS IN SPRING...OPTED TO CUT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS AND KEEP THE
FCST DRY THRU MON. TEMPS WL AVG BLO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER AT THE LOW
LEVELS THRU TONIGHT...ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT THRU THU MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN
OR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PROBABLY REACH KIWD EARLY THU
MORNING...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WILL WORK TO SLOW E/NE PROGRESSION OF PCPN.
BY LATE MORNING...PCPN IS LIKELY AT KIWD ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
PCPN (SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN) SHOULD BE CLOSE TO KCMX/KSAW BY 18Z AND WILL
CERTAINLY BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE
LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW
GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS LEADING TO GREATLY REDUCED
SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER UPR MI. BUT SINCE RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SOME
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY. LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE BEEN ALSTON AND
CHASSELL ON THE STURGEON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS ON THE PAINT
RIVER...AND HARVEY ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER. SINCE CHILLY AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF SHOULD
DIMINISH AND PREVENT THESE RIVERS FROM EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IN THE
SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF LATER THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF
OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE
0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL
FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS AS AS HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAM IN FROM THE
W...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LATE SEASON WINTER WX EVENT.

FOR TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP TOPPING OUT AROUND 10F WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND MUCH WARMER AIR
SLIDING IN. THAT WILL MEAN TEMPS NEARING NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING -7C AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO AN
AVERAGE -1C BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT E THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS FOR LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...DEW
POINTS COULD MIX DOWN TO SEE RH VALUES FALLING 20-25 PERCENT NEAR
THE WI BORDER. CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT 5 PERCENT HIGHER FCST.

ESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FAR W AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP SFC TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
CENTRAL AND E ARE A BIT TRICKIER...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS. MID 20S STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE
SLOWING TREND OF INCOMING WAA PRECIP CONTINUES...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW PUSHING INTO GOGEBIC COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY AS
THE APEX OF THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PCPN ON THU INTO EARLY FRI AS WELL AS PTYPE.

AT 12Z THU...THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV WL BE LOCATED NEAR THE CNDN
BORDER WITH MONTANA WHILE THE SRN DISTUBANCE SHIFTS E INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES CENTERS NEARBY.
DESPITE THE SEPARATION BTWN THE INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS...MODEL FCST RH
FIELDS SHOW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AREA OF HIER RH EXTENDING FM MN INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER OVERAL SE FLOW TO THE E OF LARGER SCALE LO PRES
TROF IN THE PLAINS. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THIS BAND AT THE
LATITUDE OF UPR MI IS FCST TO BE ABOUT 4 G/KG...BOOSTED BY H85 S
WINDS FCST UP TO 35-50 KTS E OF THE LARGER SCALE TROF AXIS. SO EVEN
THOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SRN SHRTWV WL REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE NRN DISTURBANCE AND THAT ONLY THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV
WL IMPACT THE CWA AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE TO THE E THRU FRI...
THERE WL BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBL FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY PCPN OVER UPR
MI AS THESE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE UPR LKS RESPECTIVELY BY 12Z FRI. DIFFLUENT H3
FLOW/SHARP H4-2 DVGC E OF THE ARPCHG NRN SHRTWV WL ALSO ACT TO
ENHANCE PCPN RATES OVER THE CWA.

THE 00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE THE NRN SHRTWV WL TRACK THRU CENTRAL UPR
MI...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOST LIKELY TO THE N OF THE H85-7-5 LO
TRACK FM ABOUT IRONWOOD/ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE BEFORE THE PCPN
SLOWLY DIMNISHES ON FRI WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV INTO SE ONTARIO.
BUT THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 22/12Z AND 23/00Z ECMWF SHOW A FARTHER N
TRACK FOR THE NRN SHRTWV AND H85-7 LO ACRS THE NRN KEWEENAW...WITH
EARLIER DRY SLOTTING BY 06Z-12Z FRI AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT
SEEMS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE NCEP MODELS. 24 HR PCPN TOTALS THRU 12Z
FRI SHOWN BY THE NCEP MODELS RANGE FM 0.65-1.10 INCH...LEAST OVER
THE SE AND GREATEST OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO
FCST TRACK. IN CONTRAST...THE 22/12Z ECWMF SHOWED 24 HR PCPN RANGING
FM 0.50 INCH OVER THE SE TO 0.75 INCH OVER THE KEWEENAW.

A MAJOR CONCERN THIS LATE IN THE SEASON IS ON PTYPE AND HOW SFC
TEMPS WL IMPACT SN ACCUM RATES. MODELS SHOW PCPN ARRIVING W-E ON
THU...REACHING NEWBERRY BY LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PCPN WL BE
ARRIVING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...WHEN H100-85 THKNS ARE FCST IN THE
1305-1310M RANGE...SUSPECT THE PCPN WL START AS RA OR A RA/SN MIX
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE INITALLY
DRY LLVL AIR. EVEN WHERE SN IS MIXED IN WITH THE PCPN...EXPECT LTL
IF ANY SN ACCUMULATION ON WARMER SFCS LIKE ROADS. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DYNAMIC COOLING WL ALLOW THE PCPN TO CHG TO PRIMARILY SN BY
00Z FRI AS H100-85 THKNS FALL TO 1295-1305M...ESPECIALLY AT
LOCATIONS TO THE N OF THE H85 LO TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM NEAR
SFC TEMPS...A HI AND THIN DGZ WL ALSO REDUCE SN/WATER RATIOS AND
MAKE THIS SN PARTICULARLY WET AND HEAVY. BEST BET ATTM IS FOR SN
TOTALS TO REACH 6 TO PERHAPS 8 INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW GIVEN THE MORE FVRBL LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE H85-7 LO
TRACK. OTHER HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA MAY
SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE FCST H85-7 LO TRACK ARGUES FOR MAINLY RA AND
LTL SN ACCUM OVER THE SE PORTION OF UPR MI.

SUSPECT FUTURE SHIFTS WL NEED TO ISSUE WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE HIER
TERRAIN OF NW UPR MI. GIVEN THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON SHRTWV LO TRACKS
AND THE IMPACT OF TEMPS ON SN ACCUM RATES FOR A MAINLY 4TH PERIOD SN
FALL...OPTED TO UPDATE GOING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

FRI NGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV DIVING ESEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND
DEPARTING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME LGT SN/RA TO THE CWA. THE 00Z CNDN
MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND GENERATES ANOTERH 0.50
INCH OF PCPN NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THIS STRONGER/WETTER SCENARIO
SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE HGT RISES/DRYING THAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER UPR MI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INITIAL
STRONGER NRN SHRTWV.

EXTENDED...THE NW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG BLDG IN THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO PRES AND TO THE S OF SPRAWLING HI PRES OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA ARE FCST TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS STARTING
ON SAT. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING NE
OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING A RETURN OF PCPN AS EARLY AS SUN
NGTCONSIDERING THIS HUDSON BAY HI AND THE LIKELY DRY NNE FEED OF DRY
AIR THAT WL IMPACT THE AREA/CLIMATOLOGY OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES
SYSTEMS IN SPRING...OPTED TO CUT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS AND KEEP THE
FCST DRY THRU MON. TEMPS WL AVG BLO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO OUR E DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EXIT E OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM FROM S CANADA THROUGH THE S PLAINS. COULD HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO
12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW VFR.

A LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 40KTS AROUND 2KFT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY AT IWD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF LLWS AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SFC LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT CMX AND SAW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE
LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW
GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS LEADING TO GREATLY REDUCED
SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER UPR MI. BUT SINCE RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SOME
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY. LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE BEEN ALSTON AND
CHASSELL ON THE STURGEON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS ON THE PAINT
RIVER...AND HARVEY ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER. SINCE CHILLY AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF SHOULD
DIMINISH AND PREVENT THESE RIVERS FROM EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IN THE
SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF LATER THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF
OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE
0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL
FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230844
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PCPN ON THU INTO EARLY FRI AS WELL AS PTYPE.

AT 12Z THU...THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV WL BE LOCATED NEAR THE CNDN
BORDER WITH MONTANA WHILE THE SRN DISTUBANCE SHIFTS E INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO PRES CENTERS NEARBY.
DESPITE THE SEPARATION BTWN THE INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS...MODEL FCST RH
FIELDS SHOW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AREA OF HIER RH EXTENDING FM MN INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER OVERAL SE FLOW TO THE E OF LARGER SCALE LO PRES
TROF IN THE PLAINS. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THIS BAND AT THE
LATITUDE OF UPR MI IS FCST TO BE ABOUT 4 G/KG...BOOSTED BY H85 S
WINDS FCST UP TO 35-50 KTS E OF THE LARGER SCALE TROF AXIS. SO EVEN
THOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SRN SHRTWV WL REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE NRN DISTURBANCE AND THAT ONLY THE STRONGER NRN SHRTWV
WL IMPACT THE CWA AS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVE TO THE E THRU FRI...
THERE WL BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBL FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY PCPN OVER UPR
MI AS THESE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO THE UPR LKS RESPECTIVELY BY 12Z FRI. DIFFLUENT H3
FLOW/SHARP H4-2 DVGC E OF THE ARPCHG NRN SHRTWV WL ALSO ACT TO
ENHANCE PCPN RATES OVER THE CWA.

THE 00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE THE NRN SHRTWV WL TRACK THRU CENTRAL UPR
MI...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN MOST LIKELY TO THE N OF THE H85-7-5 LO
TRACK FM ABOUT IRONWOOD/ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE BEFORE THE PCPN
SLOWLY DIMNISHES ON FRI WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV INTO SE ONTARIO.
BUT THE 00Z UKMET AND THE 22/12Z AND 23/00Z ECMWF SHOW A FARTHER N
TRACK FOR THE NRN SHRTWV AND H85-7 LO ACRS THE NRN KEWEENAW...WITH
EARLIER DRY SLOTTING BY 06Z-12Z FRI AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR HEAVIER
PCPN. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL IS A COMPROMISE BTWN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT
SEEMS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE NCEP MODELS. 24 HR PCPN TOTALS THRU 12Z
FRI SHOWN BY THE NCEP MODELS RANGE FM 0.65-1.10 INCH...LEAST OVER
THE SE AND GREATEST OVER THE KEWEENAW ON THE CYC SIDE OF THE UPR LO
FCST TRACK. IN CONTRAST...THE 22/12Z ECWMF SHOWED 24 HR PCPN RANGING
FM 0.50 INCH OVER THE SE TO 0.75 INCH OVER THE KEWEENAW.

A MAJOR CONCERN THIS LATE IN THE SEASON IS ON PTYPE AND HOW SFC
TEMPS WL IMPACT SN ACCUM RATES. MODELS SHOW PCPN ARRIVING W-E ON
THU...REACHING NEWBERRY BY LATE IN THE AFTN. SINCE THE PCPN WL BE
ARRIVING DURING DAYTIME HEATING...WHEN H100-85 THKNS ARE FCST IN THE
1305-1310M RANGE...SUSPECT THE PCPN WL START AS RA OR A RA/SN MIX
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE INITALLY
DRY LLVL AIR. EVEN WHERE SN IS MIXED IN WITH THE PCPN...EXPECT LTL
IF ANY SN ACCUMULATION ON WARMER SFCS LIKE ROADS. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/DYNAMIC COOLING WL ALLOW THE PCPN TO CHG TO PRIMARILY SN BY
00Z FRI AS H100-85 THKNS FALL TO 1295-1305M...ESPECIALLY AT
LOCATIONS TO THE N OF THE H85 LO TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM NEAR
SFC TEMPS...A HI AND THIN DGZ WL ALSO REDUCE SN/WATER RATIOS AND
MAKE THIS SN PARTICULARLY WET AND HEAVY. BEST BET ATTM IS FOR SN
TOTALS TO REACH 6 TO PERHAPS 8 INCHES OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW GIVEN THE MORE FVRBL LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE H85-7 LO
TRACK. OTHER HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA MAY
SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE FCST H85-7 LO TRACK ARGUES FOR MAINLY RA AND
LTL SN ACCUM OVER THE SE PORTION OF UPR MI.

SUSPECT FUTURE SHIFTS WL NEED TO ISSUE WINTER WX ADVYS FOR THE HIER
TERRAIN OF NW UPR MI. GIVEN THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON SHRTWV LO TRACKS
AND THE IMPACT OF TEMPS ON SN ACCUM RATES FOR A MAINLY 4TH PERIOD SN
FALL...OPTED TO UPDATE GOING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

FRI NGT...ANOTHER SHRTWV DIVING ESEWD INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND
DEPARTING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME LGT SN/RA TO THE CWA. THE 00Z CNDN
MODEL IS STRONGEST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND GENERATES ANOTERH 0.50
INCH OF PCPN NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT THIS STRONGER/WETTER SCENARIO
SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE HGT RISES/DRYING THAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER UPR MI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING INITIAL
STRONGER NRN SHRTWV.

EXTENDED...THE NW FLOW ALF E OF UPR RDG BLDG IN THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LO PRES AND TO THE S OF SPRAWLING HI PRES OVER
SCENTRAL CANADA ARE FCST TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS STARTING
ON SAT. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW NEXT SHRTWV LIFTING NE
OUT OF THE PLAINS BRINGING A RETURN OF PCPN AS EARLY AS SUN
NGTCONSIDERING THIS HUDSON BAY HI AND THE LIKELY DRY NNE FEED OF DRY
AIR THAT WL IMPACT THE AREA/CLIMATOLOGY OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES
SYSTEMS IN SPRING...OPTED TO CUT MODEL CONSENSUS POPS AND KEEP THE
FCST DRY THRU MON. TEMPS WL AVG BLO NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO OUR E DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EXIT E OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM FROM S CANADA THROUGH THE S PLAINS. COULD HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO
12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW VFR.

A LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 40KTS AROUND 2KFT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY AT IWD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF LLWS AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SFC LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT CMX AND SAW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE
LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW
GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS LEADING TO GREATLY REDUCED
SNOWMELT RUNOFF OVER UPR MI. BUT SINCE RUNOFF FROM RECENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO FLOW THRU THE GROUND...SOME
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY. LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE BEEN ALSTON AND
CHASSELL ON THE STURGEON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS ON THE PAINT
RIVER...AND HARVEY ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER. SINCE CHILLY AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT...SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF SHOULD
DIMINISH AND PREVENT THESE RIVERS FROM EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IN THE
SHORT TERM.

REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE ICE REMAINS ON AREA RIVERS...SO THE ICE JAM
FLOODING THREAT HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
AT THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ADDING TO RUNOFF LATER THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF
OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE
0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL
FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. IF MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...RUNOFF WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL WARMER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE
LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 230840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO OUR E DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND EXIT E OF UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEARING FROM FROM S CANADA THROUGH THE S PLAINS. COULD HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT IWD JUST PRIOR TO
12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL BELOW VFR.

A LOW LEVEL JET NEARING 40KTS AROUND 2KFT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY AT IWD...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE THE INCLUSION OF LLWS AS SFC
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15KTS. OTHERWISE...THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SFC LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT CMX AND SAW UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT E TO CANADA
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR THE
LOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO IA AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE HURON LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LAKE BY THE END OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY W LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
AND E AREAS OVERNIGHT AS E WINDS GUSTS INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE. A FEW
GALES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FCSTS.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS
HUDSON BAY SATURDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED
N-NW GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL AND E LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER
SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING
TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND
SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE
BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON
RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW
MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230356
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1156 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AT KIWD LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER
SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING
TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND
SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE
BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON
RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW
MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222251
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY N WINDS TO 20KT AT KSAW WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFT 00Z AS HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED... RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER
SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING
TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND
SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE
BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON
RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW
MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222059
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
459 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

A MUCH COLDER DAY SEEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO REDUCED SNOWMELT WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RIVER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ON THE RISE AS WATER WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER
SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN...UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY ADDING
TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND
SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RISES NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL HAVE
BEEN ALSTON/ALSM4/ AND CHASSELL/CLLM4/ ON THE STURGEON
RIVER AND CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER. SINCE SNOW
MELT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVERS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THOSE LIVING AROUND
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222048
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
448 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE FEATURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION LATER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO AND GENERALLY MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE PREVIOUS MODELS
RUNS HAD THE IDEA OF THESE LOWS MERGING WHEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
WAVES IN THE UPPER TROUGH COMING TOGETHER AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT MOST OF THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS (EXCEPT FOR THE GFS) HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE LACK OF PHASING
BETWEEN THOSE UPPER LEVEL WAVES. WITHOUT THIS PHASING...THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND JUST HAVE A BROAD LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THIS STILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...IT MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON THE AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE GREATEST AFFECT OF THIS SPLIT FEATURE IS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY OUT
OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
HANDLING OF THE PHASING...IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE 0.5 INCH OF QPF. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE U.P. AND EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST TO BE NEARING 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
THE IMPACT FROM THIS EVENT AND THE ASSOCIATED 0.75-1.0 INCH OF QPF
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
TRICKY...TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS SNOW OVER AT
LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE WARMER AIR
REMAINING HUNG UP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TAKING LONGER TO
DEPART...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE
LOW LEVELS AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING LAYERS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
HAVE A FEELING THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LARGELY SNOW INITIALLY OVER
THE WEST (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN). THE 12Z MODEL THERMAL
FIELDS ARE STILL BORDERLINE FOR PRECIP TYPE HEADING THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS THERE IS A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
LAYER BELOW 750MB AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS A MORE SNOW THAN RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF.
AT THIS TIME...THAT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MORE
RAIN WOULD BE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO GWINN TO SENEY.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE COBB OUTPUT OF HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS...WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 8-10 TO 1
RANGE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF FORCING BELOW THE DGZ. SINCE THE SNOW
WILL START DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST
(ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS) AND HAVE LIMITED AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY TO
A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE COOLING
AT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE ON BOTH ROADS AND
SNOW/GRASS COVERED SURFACES. AT THAT TIME...THE BEST QPF AND COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECASTED FOR THE KEWEENAW...WITH 6-9
INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE ARE MORE UP IN THE AIR
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIAL AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FEEL THERE COULD BE 2-6 INCHES OF SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL...MORE THAN
50 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS HAVE 24HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF EXCEEDING 3
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS OF THE CWA AND PROBS DECREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT OF 6 INCHES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WARNING AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT (AND THE
IMPACTS ARE LARGELY IN THE 5TH PERIOD)...DIDN/T FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED AN SPS
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL ALLOW THE SHIFT
TONIGHT TO SEE IF THE TRENDS FROM THE 12Z RUNS CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE PRAIRIES AND SHIFTING EAST TO
HUDSON BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO DRY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT FLOW REGIME SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
(POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS AT OUR OFFICE) AND ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222017
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
417 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF...A
SHARP RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING FOR
TROF AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES...LED BY SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
PASSING JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR 24HRS AGO. PER 12Z RAOBS AND
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS...850MB THERMAL TROF IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR/CNTRL UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...CLOUD COVER HAS
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTN. TRAILING SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SE THRU WRN UPPER MI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN IS ALSO AIDING THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS ALSO GENERATED FLURRIES/-SHSN THIS AFTN.
FLURRIES/-SHSN HAVE ENDED ON THE KEWEENAW AND WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER
THE THERMAL TROF AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE STUGGLED
TO RISE TODAY. MID AFTN READINGS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MI (LOW 30S AT SOME LOCATIONS) TO THE LOW/MID 40S SCNTRL AND NEAR
KIWD.

CLEARING IS NOW GETTING UNDERWAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
THE W HALF. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE EVENING AS
MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE N AND
W...BUT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONGEST OVER THE E AS THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TOWARD LAKE NIPIGON. AFTER A
CHILLY DAY...CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WRN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN THE 40-50PCT RANGE WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO AT
OR BLO LOWEST GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WHERE MEANINGFUL SNOWCOVER STILL
EXITS. TRADIATIONAL COLDS SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS...
BUT 20S WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT FOR APR
23 IS 17F. MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THAT.

ON WED...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST
DRIFTING E...MESOHIGH WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTN AND ALSO OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT...LAKE
BREEZES WILL DOMINATE...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS CHILLY...PROBABLY
30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR MASS WILL AID DEEP MIXING
POTENTIAL...SO AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
NICELY AFTER THE COLD START. MIXING TO AROUND 800MB ON FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ALONG THE WI BORDER.
WILL BE WARMER IF MIXING IS HIGHER. MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN DWPTS
FALLING DURING THE AFTN. UTILIZED SOME OF THE DRYING POTENTIAL BASED
ON MIXING HEIGHT TO LOWER DWPTS TO JUST UNDER 20F IN THE INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-1.0IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD SHIFTS TO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM W
TO E. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT OVER THE WRN LAKE...AND THE INITIAL NW
20-30KT WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP TO UNDER 15KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SLOWLY
DRIFTS E. HOWEVER...E WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 20KT OVER
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE WED NIGHT AND WILL REACH 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THU IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES APPROACHING THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING/COASTAL CONVERGENCE
WOULD ENHANCE THIS E WIND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI
INTO SAT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF
THE HIGH ON SAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD
BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...AGAIN...DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF
THE LOW.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 221739
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-1.0IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 20-25KT AT KCMX/KSAW WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
LATE AFTN...WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND
A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE N AND W
ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KSAW/KCMX TO LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT OR TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY
TRENDED VFR. SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL ALSO END IN THE NEXT
FEW HRS. DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE TONIGHT THRU WED...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 221432 CCB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1031 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-1.0IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF
HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTN. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTN AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND PERHAPS CMX THIS MRNG TO GIVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WL BE THE RULE TNGT AS THE SFC HI PRES
RDG MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC










000
FXUS63 KMQT 221316 CCA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
906 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN W OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF
HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTN. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTN AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND PERHAPS CMX THIS MRNG TO GIVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WL BE THE RULE TNGT AS THE SFC HI PRES
RDG MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 221122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
1Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF
HI PRES FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT THIS AFTN. WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTN AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT SAW AND PERHAPS CMX THIS MRNG TO GIVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WL BE THE RULE TNGT AS THE SFC HI PRES
RDG MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 220949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
549 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 548 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF THE UPCOMING END OF THE
WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...WE WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AT
1Z WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
LAKE BREEZES DOMINATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR W HALF.

THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL STRETCH FROM S SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH IA AT
12Z THURSDAY...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ACROSS UPPER MI.
850MB WINDS OF 40-50KT ARE STILL SHOWING UP BY 18Z OVER THE W
HALF...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25KTS MAKING IT TO THE SFC.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SFC LOWS
ALIGNING FROM NE TO WI BY 00Z FRIDAY.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY ON THURSDAY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI...CLOSER TO THE S SFC LOW OVER WI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO MNM.

UPDATED HWO TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLD AIR TO SLIP
ACROSS BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...INCLUDED THE THREAT FOR THEM
AS WELL. HAVE 4-7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY
FCST SO EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE
IT/S ALL SAID AND DONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES. MAY HAVE 2-5IN MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS FCST OVER THE
KEWEENAW IF THE COLDER AIR WINS OUT...AND SLR/S OF 10-15:1 OCCUR
LIKE BUFKIT IS PAINTING OUT FOR THE GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 IN OUR ONGOING FCST.

THE NEARLY STACKED SFC TO 500MB LOW ACROSS NE AND S MANITOBA AT 00Z
FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT OVER AND E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO
W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI TO RESULT IN ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. FAVORABLE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
BROKEN/ICE COVERED WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.
THE HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR FCST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH COOL N FLOW LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA. THE 60 AND 70
DEGREE TEMPS OF YESTERDAY WILL BE JUST A MEMORY...WITH 30S AND 40S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 220853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

PRELIMINARY LONG TERM...WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF
THE UPCOMING END OF THE WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY
TO MNM.

WILL UPDATE HWO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. HAVE 4 TO 7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY FCST SO
EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE IT/S ALL
SAID AND DONE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT RIVER...HARVEY/
HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HYDE/FRDM4/ ON
THE FORD RIVER /...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO ICE JAM
ISSUES/. GIVEN INCREASED DISCHARGE FROM THE PRICKETT DAM JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE ALSM4 GAUGE ON THE STURGEON RIVER...THE RIVER AT
THAT LOCATION ROSE TO NEAR BANKFULL EARLY TUE MRNG. ISSUED A RIVER
STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHER LEVELS. BUT SINCE SNOW MELT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WL BE DIMINISHING...EXPECT THE RIVER TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AND NOT EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RISE TO NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS
ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER LEVELS
THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN FORM AND
BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF/KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 220839
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
439 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU ONTARIO DEEPENING AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LKS
DOWNSTREAM OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT HAS PASSED THRU UPR MI...AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS HI AS 30-35
MPH IN ITS WAKE HAVE ADVECTED COOLER AIR BACK OVER UPR MI. THE 00Z
H85 TEMPS WERE AS LO AS -6C AT INL AND -7C AT YPL. ALTHOUGH A GOOD
DEAL OF LOWER CLDS HAVE RETURNED WITH THE COOLER AIR...DRY NATURE OF
THE NEAR SFC LYR SHOWN ON THE WELL MIXED 00Z INL RAOB UNDER
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ARND H8 AND SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARND 10F
UPSTREAM HAVE SO FAR LIMITED THE PCPN TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES. THE
00Z YPL RAOB IS MORE MOIST FM THE SFC TO ABOUT H6...AND THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME LGT SN SHOWERS REPORTED AT SOME PLACES TO THE N OF THUNDER
BAY UNDER THE DEEPER MSTR. TO THE W TOWARD THE ROCKIES UPR RDG...SFC
HI PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB ARE
RESULTING IN MOCLR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF MN EXCEPT THE ARROWHEAD
AND THE HI PLAINS.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE LGT PCPN CHCS/PTYPE.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT SHIFTS TO CLRG TRENDS AND HOW LO TEMPS
MIGHT FALL AS THE HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO THE W DRIFT INTO THE
AREA.

TODAY...AS THE GUSTY NW WIND VEERS MORE TO THE NNW EARLY THIS MRNG
AND DRAWS THE COLDER LLVL AIR UPSTREAM OVHD...EXPECT EXPANDING LO
CLD COVERAGE UNDER SHARPENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE MORE NNW
WIND SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOWER DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OVER
ONTARIO TO THE N OF THUNDER BAY TO ADVECT INTO THE ERN CWA. THE W
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE DRIER NEAR SFC AIR SHOWN ON THE INL
RAOB AND OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES OVER THE NW
CWA BUT REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE IN THAT AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER NATURE OF THE LLVL THAT WOULD TEND TO
EVAPORATE THE SMALLER WATER DROPLETS MORE EFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTER LLVL AIR WL BE MOVING INTO THE ERN CWA...THE SHARPENING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN/MID LVL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AS THE MOIST LYR WL BE UNDER THE DGZ. INCOMING
AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR LK EFFECT PCPN. SO WHATEVER PCPN FALLS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD TEND MORE TOWARD DRIZZLE/FRZG DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS
SMALLER SN GRAINS/FLURRIES. DURING THE AFTN...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AS THE NNW FLOW TAPS DRIER
AIR NOW IN PLACE FARTHER NW IN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A CLRG
TREND. THE SC WL BE MORE TENACIOUS OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE LLVL
THERMAL TROF. GUSTY WINDS AND SFC TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF
THE MID/UPR 30S OVER THE HIER TERRAIN TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE WL MAKE
FOR A MUCH COLDER DAY COMPARED TO YDAY...WITH HI TEMPS AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES LOWER THAN ON MON.

TNGT...AS THE HI PRES RDG TO THE W MOVES INTO THE GREAT LKS AND
DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT LINGERING CLDS OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG. WITH PWAT FALLING UNDER 0.25 INCH
/AS LO AS 40 PCT OR NORMAL/ AND DIMINISHING WINDS...EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.
LATER CLRG AND STEADIER N WINDS OVER THE E WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

PRELIMINARY LONG TERM...WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF
THE UPCOMING END OF THE WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY
TO MNM.

WILL UPDATE HWO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. HAVE 4 TO 7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY FCST SO
EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE IT/S ALL
SAID AND DONE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AS EXPECTED...RIBBON OF STRONGER NNW WINDS ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES HAS RESULED IN SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS HI PRES TO
THE W SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN. SO GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT THRU WED AS THE HI PRES
RIDGE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES. E WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AS HI
AS 25-30 KTS ON THU INTO AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE UPPER
LAKES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND LO PRES MOVING NE FROM THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LO...NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WOULD ENHANCE THIS E
WIND. AS THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E LATER ON FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF HI
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA...THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE N
AND SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THE HI ON SAT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME GALES FRI INTO EARLY SAT WOULD BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 220803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.

ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

PRELIMINARY LONG TERM...WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF
THE UPCOMING END OF THE WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY
TO MNM.

WILL UPDATE HWO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. HAVE 4 TO 7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY FCST SO
EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE IT/S ALL
SAID AND DONE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 220525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.

ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.P. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID TREND SOME OF THE
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PWATS OF 40-45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WOULD SUPPORT GOING AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE.

THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WILL COME ONSHORE TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-305K
SURFACES WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL STEADILY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEARS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS POINT DUE TO
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS WITH THE THERMAL FIELD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
AREA...IT ENCOUNTERS A ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
700MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS LAYER
REMAINS STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. AS FOR THE MODELS...THE
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE COOLEST AND THE 12Z GEM IS
IN BETWEEN INITIALLY. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC IN THESE SITUATIONS AS JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN 925-700MB OF 1-2C ONE WAY OR ANOTHER CAN MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THUS...WILL
FOLLOW AN IDEA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP AND
LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (OVER
THE SOUTH HALF). THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL PLACE IT OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO FRIDAY. BY
THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW...THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA AND EXPECT
MORE OF A SCATTERED/LIGHT PRECIP TO REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND AROUND 0.5-1.0IN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THAT MATCHES
UP WELL WITH SOME OF THE ECMWF/GFS QPF PROBS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW POTENTIAL IS TRICKY BUT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TREND SEEN IN THE 12Z MODELS CREATES CONCERN FOR MEASURABLE (AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO ITS
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH. FINALLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM...THE COLD AIR AND BREEZING CONDITIONS SURGING IN BEHIND THE
LOW ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE AS A HUDSON BAY HIGH BECOMES
STATIONARY AND LEADS TO DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AT THIS TIME MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF






000
FXUS63 KMQT 220430
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1230 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.

ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE U.P. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DID TREND SOME OF THE
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
AND PWATS OF 40-45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WOULD SUPPORT GOING AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE.

THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DEALS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WILL COME ONSHORE TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-305K
SURFACES WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL STEADILY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEARS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS POINT DUE TO
THE VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE MODELS WITH THE THERMAL FIELD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
AREA...IT ENCOUNTERS A ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
700MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS LAYER
REMAINS STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. AS FOR THE MODELS...THE
12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS...THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE COOLEST AND THE 12Z GEM IS
IN BETWEEN INITIALLY. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC IN THESE SITUATIONS AS JUST A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN 925-700MB OF 1-2C ONE WAY OR ANOTHER CAN MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIP TYPE AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THUS...WILL
FOLLOW AN IDEA OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP AND
LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (OVER
THE SOUTH HALF). THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT AND WILL PLACE IT OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO FRIDAY. BY
THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW...THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL HAVE DEPARTED THE AREA AND EXPECT
MORE OF A SCATTERED/LIGHT PRECIP TO REMAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEA OF THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND AROUND 0.5-1.0IN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THAT MATCHES
UP WELL WITH SOME OF THE ECMWF/GFS QPF PROBS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...SNOW POTENTIAL IS TRICKY BUT THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TREND SEEN IN THE 12Z MODELS CREATES CONCERN FOR MEASURABLE (AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO ITS
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH. FINALLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM...THE COLD AIR AND BREEZING CONDITIONS SURGING IN BEHIND THE
LOW ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THIS
WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE GENERAL
IDEA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE AS A HUDSON BAY HIGH BECOMES
STATIONARY AND LEADS TO DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO BE
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AT THIS TIME MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE FIRST AT KCMX AND KSAW
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND THEN OVERNIGHT AT KIWD. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTN AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF








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