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000
FXUS63 KMQT 252341
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WHILE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING AT KIWD...
EXPECT A TREND FROM MVFR BACK DOWN TO IFR...AND THEN LIFR OVERNIGHT
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
WILL OCCUR LATE TUE MORNING. AT KCMX...LGT/VRBL WINDS AND LOSS OF
UPSLOPE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW LIFR CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE UP
TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR AT TIMES. HOWEVER...AS LIGHT UPSLOPE WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO
SET IN ONCE AGAIN. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR BY EARLY TUE AFTN.
AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS ARRIVING ON SW WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW A PREVAILING VFR CONDITION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...SCT/NMRS SHRA
WILL DEVELOP TUE AFTN...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 252341
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WHILE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING AT KIWD...
EXPECT A TREND FROM MVFR BACK DOWN TO IFR...AND THEN LIFR OVERNIGHT
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
WILL OCCUR LATE TUE MORNING. AT KCMX...LGT/VRBL WINDS AND LOSS OF
UPSLOPE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW LIFR CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE UP
TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR AT TIMES. HOWEVER...AS LIGHT UPSLOPE WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO
SET IN ONCE AGAIN. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR BY EARLY TUE AFTN.
AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS ARRIVING ON SW WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW A PREVAILING VFR CONDITION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...SCT/NMRS SHRA
WILL DEVELOP TUE AFTN...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 252341
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WHILE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING AT KIWD...
EXPECT A TREND FROM MVFR BACK DOWN TO IFR...AND THEN LIFR OVERNIGHT
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
WILL OCCUR LATE TUE MORNING. AT KCMX...LGT/VRBL WINDS AND LOSS OF
UPSLOPE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW LIFR CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE UP
TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR AT TIMES. HOWEVER...AS LIGHT UPSLOPE WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO
SET IN ONCE AGAIN. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR BY EARLY TUE AFTN.
AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS ARRIVING ON SW WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW A PREVAILING VFR CONDITION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...SCT/NMRS SHRA
WILL DEVELOP TUE AFTN...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 252341
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WHILE LOWER CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TO VFR AT TIMES THIS EVENING AT KIWD...
EXPECT A TREND FROM MVFR BACK DOWN TO IFR...AND THEN LIFR OVERNIGHT
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR
WILL OCCUR LATE TUE MORNING. AT KCMX...LGT/VRBL WINDS AND LOSS OF
UPSLOPE WIND THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW LIFR CONDITIONS TO BOUNCE UP
TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR AT TIMES. HOWEVER...AS LIGHT UPSLOPE WESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING...EXPECT PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS TO
SET IN ONCE AGAIN. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR BY EARLY TUE AFTN.
AT KSAW...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS ARRIVING ON SW WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW A PREVAILING VFR CONDITION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE AREA...SCT/NMRS SHRA
WILL DEVELOP TUE AFTN...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 252028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 252028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THE CWA...HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE NEARBY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE MENTION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
300 J/KG TO AROUND 800 J/KG...AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS/EC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE EXACT
LOW POSITION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITION. THE GFS IS STILL
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AT
MOVING THE SYSTEM THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH.
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME...WHILE LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF THE FRONT MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING HOURS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE EC.
IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THEN THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE PAST
MOST OF THE U.P. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO LIMIT THE CHANCES.
MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG FROM THE GFS TO AROUND 800-
1100 J/KG FROM THE EC. SHEAR VALUES FROM THE EC ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AT THE ONSET.
AGAIN MUCH OF THIS IS CONDITIONAL...DEPENDING LARGELY ON THE OVERALL
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SLIDING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RAIN SHOWERS PUSH OVER THE AREA. THE
FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION CAN BE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...NICE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS
DRY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
CALM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHILE
THE EC MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...WILL
STICK WITH A CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT SO THE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 252025
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 252025
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
MN INTO CO AND A RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN SW FLOW FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING
NE THROUGH ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING A PROMINENT DRY SLOT INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL UPPER MI
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO SE SD.
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME TSRA OVER NRN IA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN WI FOR SOME ISOLD -SHRA TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGER RAIN AREA.

TONIGHT...MODELS ALONG WITH RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE
NRN IA PCPN MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE S AND E PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV OVER SE SD THAT COULD MOVE
INTO W UPPER MI...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MILD CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS IN THE MID50S ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW WINDS PREVAILING.

TUE...THE SHRTWV OVER NRN TX THAT SUPPORTED A VERY LARGE MCS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD THE WRN LAKES BY LATE TUE BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP AS THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE
RAIN FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO THE NAM/REG-GEM. WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...SOME TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 251803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 251803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 251803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 251803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO IWD/SAW. THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SAW AS
WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHERE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL KEEP VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX THAT MAY DROP BLO LANDING MINIMUMS ONCE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME WRLY THIS EVENING...CONTINUED VLIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE TUE MORNING
AS CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 1K FT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 251111
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT
KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS
EARLIER. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO
VLIFR AT KCMX THIS MORNING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
AN UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 251111
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT
KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS
EARLIER. MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO
VLIFR AT KCMX THIS MORNING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
AN UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250704
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250704
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TUE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO TUE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STILL THE USUAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTION...BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL IS GENERALLY AGREED ON. DEPENDING ON DETAILS THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT LATER...ANYWHERE FROM 300 TO 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE MAY BE REALIZED TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT PLAY THAT UP TOO MUCH YET.

AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WED WILL INTERACT WITH ANY
INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE QUESTION REMAINS (WITH PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY) OF HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL RESULT. MODEL RANGE OF
CAPE VALUES IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AND WELL OVER
1000 J/KG...SO WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
SITUATION CLOSELY. DO THINK THAT PRECIP POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TUE
AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER...BUT THE CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE THU EVENING INTO FRI NIGHT USING CONSENSUS TIMING (THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF). COULD SEE THUNDER AS WELL.

A SFC HIGH DOMINATING NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
COOLER AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 250656
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250656
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 250656
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250656
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

NAM HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. POKING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MISSOURI
THAT WILL HEAD NORTH TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY BEFORE THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES
OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND WILL DO A
BLEND OF THEIR FORECASTS WHICH FOR THE MOST PART DID NOT CHANGE MUCH
FROM THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP UP WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
IS A HINT OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING
A BIT FURTHER WEST...HEAVIER PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS THERE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25 KTS...STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG
IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 250511
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 250511
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250511
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. EXPECT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TO FALL
TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTN. SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW BEHIND FROPA. IMPROVEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW AS WINDS WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THERE IN THE EVENING...PERHAPS EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS
WITH RAIN PREVAILING. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS PCPN DIMINISHES OR ENDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO AN
UPSLOPE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 242336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WI WILL LIFT STEADILY N INTO UPPER MI
TONIGHT...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
INITIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU MON THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT
COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW
BEHIND FROPA. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
MON MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS WITH
RAIN PREVAILING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 242336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WI WILL LIFT STEADILY N INTO UPPER MI
TONIGHT...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
INITIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW WILL FALL TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU MON THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT
COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW
BEHIND FROPA. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN VIS DROPPING TO VLIFR AT KCMX
MON MORNING...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A LOW VIS WITH
RAIN PREVAILING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 242018
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE
THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE INTO CMX MAY DROP VSBY DOWN TOWARD VLIFR
MON MORNING BUT WITH RAIN PREVAILING...NOT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VSBY
BELOW 1SM YET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 242018
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A LOW OVER SRN WY AND A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS
TO THE WRN LAKES. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFINT TO THE NNE TRHOUGH
FROM ERN IA WHILE ANOTHER TRAILED OVER OK. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WAS
LOCATED OVER SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NRN IL. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE (8 G/KG AND 850 MB DEWPONTS AROUND 12C) WITH STRONG 300K-
310K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SE MN THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL.
VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO UPPER MI NORTH
OF THE AREA OF RAIN. TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BUT HAVE FALLEN OFF N CNTRL AS A LAKE BREEZE MOVED IN.

RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA FROM S TO N BTWN 23Z-06Z. SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET OVER NRN ONTARIO...WIDESRPEAD MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH QPF FROM 1.0-1.5 INCHES THROUGH
MON. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXEPCTED OVER THE SE WHERE THE
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED.

THE FIRST AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE SOUTH AND THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE SRN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED...GIVEN LITTLE OR NO
FCST ELEVATED CAPE AND LACK OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE
THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE INTO CMX MAY DROP VSBY DOWN TOWARD VLIFR
MON MORNING BUT WITH RAIN PREVAILING...NOT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VSBY
BELOW 1SM YET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 241959
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE
THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE INTO CMX MAY DROP VSBY DOWN TOWARD VLIFR
MON MORNING BUT WITH RAIN PREVAILING...NOT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VSBY
BELOW 1SM YET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 241959
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING MOVES OVER NORTHWEST CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...NW CONUS
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND MERGES WITH DEEPER TROUGH MOVING FM CNTRL
CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS UPPER LAKES ON
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES TO QUEBEC. MOST RAIN WILL BE DONE BY 00Z TUESDAY
AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN FM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. TRACK OF SFC LOW STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...COMPARED TO FARTHER
WEST TRACK MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND OVER THE KEWEENAW INTO THE EVENING AND THUS
A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG OR EVEN SOME DRIZZLE. SSW-SW WINDS ELSEWHERE
WILL LIMIT MOST OF THE FOG VCNTY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

NEXT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CA AND IN THE
VCNTY OF UPPER LOW CENTER OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COMBINE TO LIFT
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH SYSTEM TO HELP
DEVELOP A SFC LOW PRESSURE. HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
H85-H7 LOWS...WHICH IS NOT QUITE CLEAR. GFS FAVORS FAR WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN WHILE GEM-NH AND ECMWF ARE MORE OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH MUCAPES OF AT LEAST 300 J/KG ECMWF
OR UP OVER 1000J/KG AS THIS WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...SO DID INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. IF FARTHER WEST TRACK VERIFIES...POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SFC BASED TSRA TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENING. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH 70S INLAND WEST.
HOWEVER...EAST WINDS CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR AND SOUTH WINDS CLOSER TO
LK MICHIGAN WILL KEEP IT COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND ALSO LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES BY WED.
COULD BE WEAKER WAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THAT INTERACTS WITH SOME
AFTN HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA OR EVEN TSRA...MAINLY WEST. GEM-
NH AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS...SO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
GFS FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WEST WINDS WILL ONLY BE LOCALLY
ONSHORE...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AS H85 TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER UPR LAKES ON THURSDAY WHILE MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FM THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SFC LOW AND
TROUGH WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN BE SHOVED SOUTH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. BEST SHOT OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST THEN OVER ALL OF CWA
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER AND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. MODELS ALL
HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT VARY ON WHEN
PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS IS QUICKEST WITH MOST OF AREA DRY BY FRIDAY
AFTN. ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE SLOWER...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY OR EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT. NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED...APPEARS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE
THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE INTO CMX MAY DROP VSBY DOWN TOWARD VLIFR
MON MORNING BUT WITH RAIN PREVAILING...NOT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VSBY
BELOW 1SM YET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LIGHT WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS MAY REACH 25
KTS...STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT SO THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. WINDS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BLO 20 KTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES. ONCE IT IS EVIDENT
HOW EXPANSIVE THE FOG IS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 241736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE
THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE INTO CMX MAY DROP VSBY DOWN TOWARD VLIFR
MON MORNING BUT WITH RAIN PREVAILING...NOT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VSBY
BELOW 1SM YET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 241736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BY LATE
THIS EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOIST ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE INTO CMX MAY DROP VSBY DOWN TOWARD VLIFR
MON MORNING BUT WITH RAIN PREVAILING...NOT CONFIDENT IN LOWERING VSBY
BELOW 1SM YET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 241125
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 241125
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 241125
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 241125
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 240719
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 240719
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A 997MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER AT 12Z MON...WITH
PLENTY OF PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
JUST S OF THE CWA AT 12Z. THE LOW SHIFT NNE DURING THE DAY MON...AND
WILL BE OVER THE WRN CWA AT 00Z TUE. MODELS DISSAGREE ON EXACT
LOCATION LATER MON...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE LOW OVER FAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW OVER
GOGEBIC COUNTY. THE GEM BACKS UP THE ECMWF IDEA WHILE THE NAM IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL USE A GENERAL CONSENSUS. THE LOW
THEN SHIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING
OVER AT LEAST THE SCENTRAL MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
ROTATES IN. PRECIP MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT TOOK THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS. OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE
FOR MON IS THAT FOG IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER AND
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS HIGHER DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE AREA.

DECREASED IN POPS FOR TUE AS MODELS TREND DRYER...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN N-NW WIND UPSLOPE AREAS WHERE SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
FOG CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES...BUT WILL LINGER FOG INTO TUE NIGHT.

SFC RIDGING LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ON WED...LEADING TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP MAINLY TUE NIGHT AS IT
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SE OF THE CWA...BUT THE ECMWF AND GEM DO
NOT SHOW THIS AND THE GFS HAS NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
FEATURE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES ON THU AND FRI AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN U.S....BUT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ON
SAT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH TEMPS UNTIL FRI AND MAINLY SAT WHEN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 240651
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 240651
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF DO ABOUT THE SAME THING
AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
BREEZES...BUT THINKING IS THIS IS OVERDONE WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WOULD BE HARD TO GET ANY CONVECTION GOING.
ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM ALL HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PCPN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH THAT IDEA. DID BRING IN SOME CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TONIGHT AS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS RAIN...FOG BECOMES A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKES
AND KEPT THAT IN THERE AS WELL. WILL BECOME A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY
WHEN RAIN FALLS INTO THE LAKES. KEPT TEMPERATURES PRETTY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WARMED UP LOWS A BIT TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
COOLEST READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WINDS REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 240506
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 240506
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 240506
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 240506
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DRY AIR
WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE THIS
EVENING AND JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
LIFT N INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. PCPN SHOULD ADVANCE AS FAR N AND NE AS KIWD JUST BEFORE
THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD...CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 232319
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DRY AIR WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU SUN AFTN...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 232319
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
DRY AIR WILL LINGER AT THE LOWER LEVELS THRU SUN AFTN...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 232010
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 232010
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
UT...A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND A TROUGH
OVER NE CANADA RESULTING IN CONFLUENT WNW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES. AT THE SFC...SW TO W WINDS PREVAILED OVER MOST OF UPPER MI
BUT WERE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE INTO THE N
CNTRL. MIXING AOA 10K FT HAS HELPED DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WITH TEMPS ALSO INTO THE UPPER 70S...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. VIS LOOP INDICATEED SCT DIURNAL CU
ALONG WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE MN/WI.

TONIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT SW WINDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...MIN READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RIDING INTO THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER SW
TO W MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH 300K-310K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TOWARD THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN MAY BE DELAYED BY CONTINUE DRY LOW LEVELS. TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD
THICKNESS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 231959
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 231959
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN TO START LONG TERM SHOWS LARGER TROUGH FM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE PLAIN STATES. RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SE CONUS
EXTENDS RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ON LEADING EDGE OF
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...SEEN IN H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS...
COMBINES WITH LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130+
KT JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND TO BRING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ACROSS CWA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTN.
SHOWERS SHOULD END FIRST ALONG THE WI BORDER ON MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWS
UP SOME WITH SI/S LOWERING TOWARD 0-1C BUT THAT ARRIVES AFTER MAIN
FORCING MOVES ACROSS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR TSRA AT THIS POINT.
RAIN COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PWATS BY 12Z MONDAY AT KGRB
THAT WOULD BE IN THE HIGHEST 5 PCT COMPARED TO CLIMO FOR THE DATE.
ESE-E WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/ADVECTION OF
HIGHER DWPNTS AND RAIN OVER ALL THE AREA POINTS TO FOG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/ADJACENT SHORELINES AND ALSO OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL CWA BTWN KIMT AND MARQUETTE.

UNCERTAINTY IN POPS/WX LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER DUE TO MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING THAT MOVES OVERHEAD IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. LIKELY WILL
BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH SSW BLYR WINDS DO NOT FAVOR
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS SINCE THAT PROVIDES MINIMAL TRAJECTORIES OFF
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FM THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SSW WINDS ALSO
DIMINISHED FOG ON THE LAND AREAS...AT LEAST AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN AND
THE OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR. NAM INDICATES ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL MOSITURE MOVES IN BY EVENING TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. SINCE NAM IS ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS AT PRESENT...WILL DISCOUNT THAT IDEA AND CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY POPS. TEMPS ON MONDAY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLEARING. WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BOOST TEMPS WITH WARM TEMPS ALOFT IN WARM SECTOR OF
SFC LOW THAT WILL BE NW OF LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUE. MIXING TO H9
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S...SO INCREASED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAIN FRONT SWINGS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. VARYING IDEAS ON
STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THAT IDEA WHERE ECMWF AND GEM ARE NOT
AS BULLISH. KEPT IT SIMPLE AND RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON SW H85 THETA-E ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER EAST HALF OF CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE FOG GOING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN AT LEAST FOR THE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. ENOUGH DRYING DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY TO DISSIPATE THE
FOG. TEMPS ON TUESDAY COOLEST OVER NW CWA AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN WITH
MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN FOR THOSE AREAS THOUGH...TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER.

REST OF EXTENDED INDICATES MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BASED ON LATEST ECMWF WHICH TRENDED TOWARD LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
GFS...APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD BE DRIER AS MORE ACTIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
KEPT LOW CHANCES THAT CONSENSUS GAVE ATTM...BUT IF THESE MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS FM NEXT
SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL.
GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL COOLING AT H85 OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...COULD SEE TEMPS MOST DAYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PUSH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-UPR 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD STAY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING...WITH MAINLY 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS MOVE BACK IN NEXT
WEEKEND AS COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SW-W WINDS TO 25 KTS...EVEN GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT HIGHER LEVEL
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS...DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS THEN
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR ON MONDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHEAST DUE TO FUNNELLING. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WINDS BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 231737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 231737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 231145
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LLWS WILL END AT KCMX THIS MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 231145
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LLWS WILL END AT KCMX THIS MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 231145
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LLWS WILL END AT KCMX THIS MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 231145
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LLWS WILL END AT KCMX THIS MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 230748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 230748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 230748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 230748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 230716
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 230716
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 230716
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 230537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ALLOW WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO KICK IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE KEEPING A NARROW
RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CONTINUED RIDGING WILL
HELP TO SLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERN WI OR FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WHILE THE EC IS FARTHER EAST. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASED
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL ALLOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
THE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FROM MAKES IT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY IF WE END
UP GETTING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE PLACED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER PIECE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AS
IT SWINGS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BIT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN BUT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL 500MB PATTER. PINNING DOWN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY WAVES MOVING THROUGH WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT
BEST...THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 230537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ALLOW WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO KICK IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE KEEPING A NARROW
RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CONTINUED RIDGING WILL
HELP TO SLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERN WI OR FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WHILE THE EC IS FARTHER EAST. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASED
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL ALLOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
THE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FROM MAKES IT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY IF WE END
UP GETTING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE PLACED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER PIECE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AS
IT SWINGS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BIT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN BUT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL 500MB PATTER. PINNING DOWN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY WAVES MOVING THROUGH WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT
BEST...THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 230537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ALLOW WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO KICK IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE KEEPING A NARROW
RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CONTINUED RIDGING WILL
HELP TO SLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERN WI OR FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WHILE THE EC IS FARTHER EAST. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASED
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL ALLOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
THE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FROM MAKES IT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY IF WE END
UP GETTING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE PLACED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER PIECE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AS
IT SWINGS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BIT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN BUT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL 500MB PATTER. PINNING DOWN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY WAVES MOVING THROUGH WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT
BEST...THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 230537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS INTO THE EVENING ENSURING CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE THIS AFTN ARE LOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15
PCT OVER INTERIOR WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR WI BORDER ARE IN
THE LOW 60S...BUT READINGS ARE IN THE 40S NEAR LK SUPERIOR TO THE
EAST OF BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING GOOD VIEWING
OF SMOKE PLUME FROM THE USFS PRESCRIBED BURN ONGOING ON THE BARAGA
PLAINS OF WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY. NW WINDS ALOFT HAVE PUSHED THE
PLUME AS FAR EAST AS SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS UPR MICHIGAN. MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING SW-S WINDS BTWN THE ONTARIO TROUGH AND
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STIRRING WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WARM TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S.
HOWEVER...TEMPS INLAND OVER CNTRL AND EAST MAY STILL FALL OFF INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE TEMPS RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.

ON SATURDAY...SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE ALONG WI BORDER.
NONE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH AS
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS HIGHS TO AT LEAST
LOW-MID 70S OVER MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN AWAY FM ONSHORE WINDS NEAR LK
MICHIGAN. STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH FM
KEWEENAW TO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P...SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE AFTN AS ONTARIO TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ALLOW WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO KICK IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE KEEPING A NARROW
RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CONTINUED RIDGING WILL
HELP TO SLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE WI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL ONLY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHEASTERN WI OR FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST WHILE THE EC IS FARTHER EAST. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE WARM FROM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASED
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL ALLOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK OF
THE LOW AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FROM MAKES IT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY IF WE END
UP GETTING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS. HAVE PLACED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NEAR THE WI
BORDER. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AS ANOTHER PIECE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AS
IT SWINGS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...THIS WILL KEEP CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BIT DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN BUT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL 500MB PATTER. PINNING DOWN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF ANY WAVES MOVING THROUGH WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT
BEST...THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD KEEPING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WITH DRY AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AS
A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT/THIS MORNING...SCT
TO PERHAPS BKN MID CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. IN ADDITION...
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LLWS
AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCMX/KSAW. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25KT AT KCMX FOR A
PERIOD THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS BECOME SOUTHWEST-SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS IN GUSTS OVER MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR INTO
SATUDAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS FM REACHING
THE SFC AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





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