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000
FXUS63 KMQT 281856
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

SSW upper flow still in place. Primary upper low is centered over
eastern SD with 1007mb sfc low over far northwest IA. Subtle warm
front arcs ahead of the sfc low, but it remains humid even north of
warm front with dwpnts in the low to mid 60s over Upr Michigan. Weak
shortwave and slight elevated instability with mucape up to 500j/kg
is supporting scattered showers over west cwa. Additional isolated
showers are affecting the far eastern cwa. Min in showers is noted
over central U.P. thus far. Radar trends and HRRR and RAP suggest
current pattern should hold for most part into the evening. There
has been no tsra yet as clouds have held down temps and instability.
Cannot count it out as there are tsra now forming upstream in WI.
Will keep isolated mention of tsra. Seems greatest chances for rain
and thunder into early evening will be over western Upper Michigan.

On a side note, latest flash flood guidance over western U.P. is
lower than points over central and eastern cwa - around 1.5-2.0
inches for 1 or 3 hours as there has been greater coverage to rain
there last few days. Any stronger storms could produce heavy rain
with 12z GRB sounding showing PWATS over 1.50 inches or over 200 pct
of normal. K-index was 34. Will be something to keep eye on as the
aftn goes into the evening.

Another mild night with lows in the upr 50s to low 60s. No need to
alter current persistent pattern with fog/stratus forming late
tonight and lingering into Sunday morning. Could see increase in
showers late tonight over sw as upper trough over SD moves to MN/WI.
Sfc low will be sliding over western U.P. during that time. Better
chances of showers and some thunderstorms will be later Sun morning
through Sun aftn with upper trough axis moving overhead and as
sfc-h85 trough axis crosses. Since low clouds should be around to
start day, could again see situation like last couple days where
instability forecast by models may be held down which will lead to
less chance of tsra. Proximity of mid level trough axis may lead to
higher lapse rates though since dry slot on leading edge of trough
(which has helped form tsra this afternoon over southern MN into
northern IA) will be pretty much east of cwa by aftn think that may
be where greater tsra chances will reside. Overall will keep thunder
chances low. Finally, once the sfc low and sfc-H85 trough pass by
expect strong/gusty west winds to develop over Lk Superior and
Keweenaw Peninsula. As the winds shift west and bring in slightly
drier air, should finally begin to scour out the fog over Lk
Superior. High temps on Sunday with plenty of clouds should reach
upper 60s to low-mid 70s with warmest readings south central and east
away from Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Nam forecasts a 500 mb shortwave over the area 00z Mon followed by a
shortwave ridge that moves in on Tue. GFS and ECMWF show about the
same thing as well and will go with a blend of them for this
forecast. Pops move out Sun night and do not return to the cwa until
Tue. Looks pretty quiet and will still continue the dry forecast for
Memorial Day and Mon night. Overall, did not make too many changes
to the going forecast.

In the extended...GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb trough and
closed low over the northern plains 12z Wed. This trough moves into
the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and remains over the area through Sat.
Still remains unsettled this forecast period with temperatures
remaining near normal. Fri looks to be the driest day of this
forecast period with sfc high pressure in the area. Sat could have
some lake breeze convection with light winds and a warm front near
the area.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

LIFR clouds have been stubborn to depart today with weak winds and
no dry advection. Expect improvement to low MVFR this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain across Upper Michigan with the
greatest chances this aftn at KCMX. After the showers exit this
evening, expect BR/FG and low clouds to develop again and produce
IFR to LIFR conditions at all sites overnight. Conditions will
slowly improve by late in the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, dense fog
will persist into at least Sun. Will continue going Dense Fog
Advisory thru the day on Sun. The fog should begin to diminish Sun
night/Mon as drier air arrives from the NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ243>246-264>267.

  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
     263.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281854
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

SSW upper flow still in place. Primary upper low is centered over
eastern SD with 1007mb sfc low over far northwest IA. Subtle warm
front arcs ahead of the sfc low, but it remains humid even north of
warm front with dwpnts in the low to mid 60s over Upr Michigan. Weak
shortwave and slight elevated instability with mucape up to 500j/kg
is supporting scattered showers over west cwa. Additional isolated
showers are affecting the far eastern cwa. Min in showers is noted
over central U.P. thus far. Radar trends and HRRR and RAP suggest
current pattern should hold for most part into the evening. There
has been no tsra yet as clouds have held down temps and instability.
Cannot count it out as there are tsra now forming upstream in WI.
Will keep isolated mention of tsra. Seems greatest chances for rain
and thunder into early evening will be over western Upper Michigan.

On a side note, latest flash flood guidance over western U.P. is
lower than points over central and eastern cwa - around 1.5-2.0
inches for 1 or 3 hours as there has been greater coverage to rain
there last few days. Any stronger storms could produce heavy rain
with 12z GRB sounding showing PWATS over 1.50 inches or over 200 pct
of normal. K-index was 34. Will be something to keep eye on as the
aftn goes into the evening.

Another mild night with lows in the upr 50s to low 60s. No need to
alter current persistent pattern with fog/stratus forming late
tonight and lingering into Sunday morning. Could see increase in
showers late tonight over sw as upper trough over SD moves to MN/WI.
Sfc low will be sliding over western U.P. during that time. Better
chances of showers and some thunderstorms will be later Sun morning
through Sun aftn with upper trough axis moving overhead and as
sfc-h85 trough axis crosses. Since low clouds should be around to
start day, could again see situation like last couple days where
instability forecast by models may be held down which will lead to
less chance of tsra. Proximity of mid level trough axis may lead to
higher lapse rates though since dry slot on leading edge of trough
(which has helped form tsra this afternoon over southern MN into
northern IA) will be pretty much east of cwa by aftn think that may
be where greater tsra chances will reside. Overall will keep thunder
chances low. Finally, once the sfc low and sfc-H85 trough pass by
expect strong/gusty west winds to develop over Lk Superior and
Keweenaw Peninsula. As the winds shift west and bring in slightly
drier air, should finally begin to scour out the fog over Lk
Superior. High temps on Sunday with plenty of clouds should reach
upper 60s to low-mid 70s with warmest readings south central and east
away from Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Main fcst concerns in the medium/extended range wl focus on pops for
Sun and then Tue into Thu. Interaction btwn shrtwv lifting NEwd out
of deamplifying central CONUS trof on Sun and deep mstr over sfc lo
pres trof drifting acrs Upr MI may result in some heavy showers/TS
especially over the central counties in the aftn. After a drying
trend on Memorial Day behind departing shrtwv and ahead of trailing
shrtwv rdg axis, models have trended faster on bringing more
showers/some TS back into the area on Tue/Wed ahead of another
disturbance aprchg fm the W.

Sun...The approach of a shrtwv lifting NEwd out of deamplifying
central CONUS upr trof and accompanying DPVA/Deep lyr qvector cnvgc
over lo pres trof/cool fnt/axis of deeper mstr moving E on the srn
flank of lo pres lifting NEwd thru Ontario wl trigger numerous
showers/TS in the presence of daytime heating. The 00z GFS shows
MUCAPE as hi as 2200 j/kg, but prefer the lower 00z NAM fcst up to
near 1500 j/kg given expected cld cover and relatively modest mid
lvl lapse rates not much hier than 6C/km. 0-6km wind shear no more
than about 20-25 kts and deep mstr suggest heavy ra wl be the main
threat fm rather slow moving TS under weakening winds alf. Expect
the hier pops over the central cwa, where the arrival of the fnt/lo
pres trof wl coincide better with the diurnal heating cycle.

Sun ngt...With DNVA/deep lyr qvector dvgc and mid lvl drying in the
wake of passing shrtwv and ahead of aprchg shrtwv rdg axis as well
as nocturnal cooling, lingering showers/TS over the E in the evng wl
diminish. Since the llvl drying does not appear to be as sgnft as in
the mid lvls, concerned some lo clds could linger especially in
areas that experience upslope flow with the fcst WNW llvl wind. Mon
mrng wl be cooler than recent mrngs

Mon/Mon ngt...Aprchg shrtwv rdg axis/mid lvl dry air/sfc hi pres rdg
axis extending S fm larger hi pres center moving toward Hudson Bay
should bring a pcpn-free fcst, but some of the models do generate
some lgt pcpn over mainly the scentral at diurnal peak heating time
on Mon aftn on what appears to be focused llvl cnvgc along a Lk MI
lake breeze bndry. Considering the very dry mid lvls shown by many
of the models associated with the aprchg shrtwv rdg, opted to retain
a dry fcst despite concerns about slower llvl dry advctn. With h85
temps fcst to peak arnd 10C, expect max temps to peak arnd 75 away
fm lk moderation. Even drier llvl air is fcst to arrive on Mon ngt
with lgt winds under sfc rdg axis, so expect lo temps to fall into
the 40s at the cool spots.

Tue thru Fri...Medium range guidance has trended faster on moving
next fairly vigorous shrtwv to the E thru the nrn plains and into
the NW Great Lks on Wed. Most of the models now generate some pcpn
over at least the wrn CWA on Tue. The 00Z ECMWF is fastest by
showing pcpn even reaching the ern zns by 00z Wed. So pops wl be
hier than on previous fcst for Tue. Although the bulk of the warm
conveyor belt pcpn may end on Wed as the deeper mstr pushes to the
E, deep cyc flow associated with the passing shrtwv indicates some
light showers may linger into Thu. Closer aprch of trailing sfc hi
pres on Fri wl bring a drying trend. Temps should average AOA normal
on Tue/Wed but then fall blo normal later in the week with arrival
of h85 thermal trof/temps arnd 5C in the cooler NW flow behind the
departing shrtwv.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

LIFR clouds have been stubborn to depart today with weak winds and
no dry advection. Expect improvement to low MVFR this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain across Upper Michigan with the
greatest chances this aftn at KCMX. After the showers exit this
evening, expect BR/FG and low clouds to develop again and produce
IFR to LIFR conditions at all sites overnight. Conditions will
slowly improve by late in the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, dense fog
will persist into at least Sun. Will continue going Dense Fog
Advisory thru the day on Sun. The fog should begin to diminish Sun
night/Mon as drier air arrives from the NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ243>246-264>267.

  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
     263.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281854
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 417 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

As with the past several days, shower and storm chances continue to
hinge on the timing of subtle features rounding a mid-level ridge
over the Great Lakes region.

A weak mid-level wave brought a decent shield of rain to the central
and east early this morning before lifting across Lake Superior.
Expect a lull in precip through the remainder of the early morning
hours behind this trough as subsidence briefly takes over. Another
group of showers will then lift northward across WI and across the
west half by mid-morning. The batch of precip may diminish in
coverage while nearing the CWA as it outruns the best forcing ahead
of the trough currently exiting the central Plains.

What happens this afternoon and evening will depend largely on the
coverage of any shower activity and clouds this morning. As a subtle
shortwave ejects out ahead of the main trough axis lifting into the
Upper MS Valley, precip will expand in coverage across northern WI
and the west half of the CWA. If precip coverage remains fairly low
this morning, enough instability will be generated to produce a
decent amount of embedded thunderstorm activity late this afternoon
into the early evening. Many parameters, including mid-level lapse
rates and 1-6km shear, will be a bit low to support strong to severe
storms for most of the area. However, one or two stronger storms
will be possible on lake breeze convergence boundaries.

Another lull in precip activity is expected late this evening into
the overnight hours, though isolated to scattered showers and
possibly some storms will be possible during this time as the main
trough axis approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Nam forecasts a 500 mb shortwave over the area 00z Mon followed by a
shortwave ridge that moves in on Tue. GFS and ECMWF show about the
same thing as well and will go with a blend of them for this
forecast. Pops move out Sun night and do not return to the cwa until
Tue. Looks pretty quiet and will still continue the dry forecast for
Memorial Day and Mon night. Overall, did not make too many changes
to the going forecast.

In the extended...GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb trough and
closed low over the northern plains 12z Wed. This trough moves into
the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and remains over the area through Sat.
Still remains unsettled this forecast period with temperatures
remaining near normal. Fri looks to be the driest day of this
forecast period with sfc high pressure in the area. Sat could have
some lake breeze convection with light winds and a warm front near
the area.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

LIFR clouds have been stubborn to depart today with weak winds and
no dry advection. Expect improvement to low MVFR this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain across Upper Michigan with the
greatest chances this aftn at KCMX. After the showers exit this
evening, expect BR/FG and low clouds to develop again and produce
IFR to LIFR conditions at all sites overnight. Conditions will
slowly improve by late in the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, dense fog
will persist into at least Sun. Will continue going Dense Fog
Advisory thru the day on Sun. The fog should begin to diminish Sun
night/Mon as drier air arrives from the NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ243>246-264>267.

  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
     263.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kluber
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281143
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
743 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 417 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

As with the past several days, shower and storm chances continue to
hinge on the timing of subtle features rounding a mid-level ridge
over the Great Lakes region.

A weak mid-level wave brought a decent shield of rain to the central
and east early this morning before lifting across Lake Superior.
Expect a lull in precip through the remainder of the early morning
hours behind this trough as subsidence briefly takes over. Another
group of showers will then lift northward across WI and across the
west half by mid-morning. The batch of precip may diminish in
coverage while nearing the CWA as it outruns the best forcing ahead
of the trough currently exiting the central Plains.

What happens this afternoon and evening will depend largely on the
coverage of any shower activity and clouds this morning. As a subtle
shortwave ejects out ahead of the main trough axis lifting into the
Upper MS Valley, precip will expand in coverage across northern WI
and the west half of the CWA. If precip coverage remains fairly low
this morning, enough instability will be generated to produce a
decent amount of embedded thunderstorm activity late this afternoon
into the early evening. Many parameters, including mid-level lapse
rates and 1-6km shear, will be a bit low to support strong to severe
storms for most of the area. However, one or two stronger storms
will be possible on lake breeze convergence boundaries.

Another lull in precip activity is expected late this evening into
the overnight hours, though isolated to scattered showers and
possibly some storms will be possible during this time as the main
trough axis approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Main fcst concerns in the medium/extended range wl focus on pops for
Sun and then Tue into Thu. Interaction btwn shrtwv lifting NEwd out
of deamplifying central CONUS trof on Sun and deep mstr over sfc lo
pres trof drifting acrs Upr MI may result in some heavy showers/TS
especially over the central counties in the aftn. After a drying
trend on Memorial Day behind departing shrtwv and ahead of trailing
shrtwv rdg axis, models have trended faster on bringing more
showers/some TS back into the area on Tue/Wed ahead of another
disturbance aprchg fm the W.

Sun...The approach of a shrtwv lifting NEwd out of deamplifying
central CONUS upr trof and accompanying DPVA/Deep lyr qvector cnvgc
over lo pres trof/cool fnt/axis of deeper mstr moving E on the srn
flank of lo pres lifting NEwd thru Ontario wl trigger numerous
showers/TS in the presence of daytime heating. The 00z GFS shows
MUCAPE as hi as 2200 j/kg, but prefer the lower 00z NAM fcst up to
near 1500 j/kg given expected cld cover and relatively modest mid
lvl lapse rates not much hier than 6C/km. 0-6km wind shear no more
than about 20-25 kts and deep mstr suggest heavy ra wl be the main
threat fm rather slow moving TS under weakening winds alf. Expect
the hier pops over the central cwa, where the arrival of the fnt/lo
pres trof wl coincide better with the diurnal heating cycle.

Sun ngt...With DNVA/deep lyr qvector dvgc and mid lvl drying in the
wake of passing shrtwv and ahead of aprchg shrtwv rdg axis as well
as nocturnal cooling, lingering showers/TS over the E in the evng wl
diminish. Since the llvl drying does not appear to be as sgnft as in
the mid lvls, concerned some lo clds could linger especially in
areas that experience upslope flow with the fcst WNW llvl wind. Mon
mrng wl be cooler than recent mrngs

Mon/Mon ngt...Aprchg shrtwv rdg axis/mid lvl dry air/sfc hi pres rdg
axis extending S fm larger hi pres center moving toward Hudson Bay
should bring a pcpn-free fcst, but some of the models do generate
some lgt pcpn over mainly the scentral at diurnal peak heating time
on Mon aftn on what appears to be focused llvl cnvgc along a Lk MI
lake breeze bndry. Considering the very dry mid lvls shown by many
of the models associated with the aprchg shrtwv rdg, opted to retain
a dry fcst despite concerns about slower llvl dry advctn. With h85
temps fcst to peak arnd 10C, expect max temps to peak arnd 75 away
fm lk moderation. Even drier llvl air is fcst to arrive on Mon ngt
with lgt winds under sfc rdg axis, so expect lo temps to fall into
the 40s at the cool spots.

Tue thru Fri...Medium range guidance has trended faster on moving
next fairly vigorous shrtwv to the E thru the nrn plains and into
the NW Great Lks on Wed. Most of the models now generate some pcpn
over at least the wrn CWA on Tue. The 00Z ECMWF is fastest by
showing pcpn even reaching the ern zns by 00z Wed. So pops wl be
hier than on previous fcst for Tue. Although the bulk of the warm
conveyor belt pcpn may end on Wed as the deeper mstr pushes to the
E, deep cyc flow associated with the passing shrtwv indicates some
light showers may linger into Thu. Closer aprch of trailing sfc hi
pres on Fri wl bring a drying trend. Temps should average AOA normal
on Tue/Wed but then fall blo normal later in the week with arrival
of h85 thermal trof/temps arnd 5C in the cooler NW flow behind the
departing shrtwv.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 743 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Except VLIFR vis and cig at KSAW and KCMX to gradually improve
through the morning as diurnal heating lifts the cloud deck. All
sites should see scattered -SHRA today, especially KIWD this
afternoon. An embedded thunderstorm will also be possible during the
afternoon hours for all sites. After the -SHRA exits this evening,
expect BR/FG to redevelop and produce IFR to LIFR conditions at all
sites overnight.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, dense fog
will persist into at least Sun. Will continue going Dense Fog
Advisory thru the day on Sun. The fog should begin to diminish Sun
night/Mon as drier air arrives from the NW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
     243>246-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kluber
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Kluber
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 280535
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
135 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

SW flow aloft bringing multiple minor shortwaves across Upper Great
Lakes. Leftover weak shortwave has helped drive cluster of shra
and isold thunderstorms as far north as Menominee county and Bay
of Green Bay. Pocket of mucapes over 500j/kg also supporting these
showers and storms which should lift into central cwa next few
hours. Additional scattered showers are streaming north across WI
and western Upr Michigan. Not much thunder seen though as sfc based
or elevated CAPES are fairly meager, generally less than 500j/kg.
Scattered showers and an isold thunderstorm expected early this
evening based on radar trends over Upper Great Lakes. As another
shortwave and sfc front/weak low pressure wave lift toward Upr
Michigan later this evening, expect another round of widespread
showers with at least a slight chance of thunderstorms as elevated
cape remains less than 250j/kg. Another mild night with temps mainly
in the 50s and fog should develop again, though probably
later as the rain moves through initially.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continues on Sat. Put a lull
in during the morning as subsidence behind the wave that moves
through tonight will probably lead to a min in coverage. Models
are in agreement with that idea, though with this type of pattern
near term convection will depend on individual shortwaves that are
hard to determine at this point. Daytime heating should increase
coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the aftn. Will depend on
how much instability is realized. Some hint that low clouds may
hang around til midday, so that would alter forecast of sfc based
CAPEs up to around 1000j/kg. Also think there will be better chances
in afternoon as upper level trough and sfc trough are closer to the
region attm. High temps should reach at least low 70s and could
reach upper 70s if there is enough sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Nam shows a trough in the wrn U.S. with a shortwave over the
Mississippi River valley 00z Sun with a ridge over the ern U.S. This
shortwave moves across the upper Great Lakes Sat night and Sun.

Confidence continues to be low for this forecast overall as it
depends heavily on amount of convection which influences the cloud
cover which influences the temperatures. Hard to time the shortwaves
out and how much convection will fire with them which in turn
influences how much cloud cover and the temperatures. For now, will
not make very many changes to the going forecast and will have some
chance pops to low likely pops into Sunday night and then will keep
Memorial Day dry for now. Is not out of the question that there
could be some lake breeze convection that forms on Memorial Day as
GFS and NAM both generate a little qpf, but thinking right now is
that this is overdone and will keep dry. Will not change
temperatures much from the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low and trough
over the northern plains and another over the desert SW 12z Tue. The
trough over the northern plains moves slowly east 12z Wed and moves
into the upper Great lakes 12z Thu and this remains over the area
into Fri. Still looks unsettled this forecast period with
temperatures near normal. Mon night and Fri look to be the driest
for this forecast for right now.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 135 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

An area of showers will lift northward across the eastern half of
the UP through the early morning hours. Moist easterly flow off fog
covered Lake Superior has already lowered cigs/vsbys at CMX into LIFR
range and that should persist through the overnight hours. As has
happened the last couple of nights cigs/vsbys will also lower into
the IFR range at IWD and SAW with the moist airmass in place.
Daytime heating will allow scattered showers to develop almost
anywhere over the western half of the UP during the day on Saturday
but there will be some improvement in cigs/vsbys by mid morning.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, dense fog
will linger into at least Sun. Dense fog should begin to diminish
early next week as drier air arrives from the northwest.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
     243>246-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 272326
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

SW flow aloft bringing multiple minor shortwaves across Upper Great
Lakes. Leftover weak shortwave has helped drive cluster of shra
and isold thunderstorms as far north as Menominee county and Bay
of Green Bay. Pocket of mucapes over 500j/kg also supporting these
showers and storms which should lift into central cwa next few
hours. Additional scattered showers are streaming north across WI
and western Upr Michigan. Not much thunder seen though as sfc based
or elevated CAPES are fairly meager, generally less than 500j/kg.
Scattered showers and an isold thunderstorm expected early this
evening based on radar trends over Upper Great Lakes. As another
shortwave and sfc front/weak low pressure wave lift toward Upr
Michigan later this evening, expect another round of widespread
showers with at least a slight chance of thunderstorms as elevated
cape remains less than 250j/kg. Another mild night with temps mainly
in the 50s and fog should develop again, though probably
later as the rain moves through initially.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continues on Sat. Put a lull
in during the morning as subsidence behind the wave that moves
through tonight will probably lead to a min in coverage. Models
are in agreement with that idea, though with this type of pattern
near term convection will depend on individual shortwaves that are
hard to determine at this point. Daytime heating should increase
coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the aftn. Will depend on
how much instability is realized. Some hint that low clouds may
hang around til midday, so that would alter forecast of sfc based
CAPEs up to around 1000j/kg. Also think there will be better chances
in afternoon as upper level trough and sfc trough are closer to the
region attm. High temps should reach at least low 70s and could
reach upper 70s if there is enough sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Nam shows a trough in the wrn U.S. with a shortwave over the
Mississippi River valley 00z Sun with a ridge over the ern U.S. This
shortwave moves across the upper Great Lakes Sat night and Sun.

Confidence continues to be low for this forecast overall as it
depends heavily on amount of convection which influences the cloud
cover which influences the temperatures. Hard to time the shortwaves
out and how much convection will fire with them which in turn
influences how much cloud cover and the temperatures. For now, will
not make very many changes to the going forecast and will have some
chance pops to low likely pops into Sunday night and then will keep
Memorial Day dry for now. Is not out of the question that there
could be some lake breeze convection that forms on Memorial Day as
GFS and NAM both generate a little qpf, but thinking right now is
that this is overdone and will keep dry. Will not change
temperatures much from the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low and trough
over the northern plains and another over the desert SW 12z Tue. The
trough over the northern plains moves slowly east 12z Wed and moves
into the upper Great lakes 12z Thu and this remains over the area
into Fri. Still looks unsettled this forecast period with
temperatures near normal. Mon night and Fri look to be the driest
for this forecast for right now.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

An area of showers will lift northward out of Wisconsin this evening
and affect mainly the eastern half of Upper Michigan through
midnight.  VFR conditions will persist into early evening and
then will follow trends of last couple nights by deteriorating to
IFR/LIFR overnight in low clouds and fog. Light easterly flow off
fog covered Lk Superior will result in VLIFR conditions around
airport minimums at KCMX. Should see very low clouds and fog diminish
mid morning Saturday but lower MVFR deck may persist along with
chance for showers.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, dense fog
will linger into at least Sun. Dense fog should begin to diminish
early next week as drier air arrives from the northwest.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-
     243>246-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271144
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
744 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 456 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Continued difficult forecast as convection will be driven by subtle
shortwave energy that will be modified by upstream convection.
Prediction of convection from these shortwaves is difficult even
within 12 hours, so confidence is limited. Generally followed a
blend of mesoscale models for pops through the short term.

Looking for 2-3 very subtle waves to move through this afternoon
through tonight. Sfc and upper ridging this afternoon will help
somewhat limit convection, as will limited instability less than 500
J/kg as shown by all models. Have scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the west and central to 00Z tonight. Highs today
in the 70s away from the Great Lakes shores will be dependent on
cloud cover and precip.

Have likely pops moving in tonight as another shortwave moves in and
sfc ridging gives way to troughing. Fog redevelopment is also
expected over land tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Upr MI wl be dominated by a SW flow aloft this weekend, resulting in
above normal temps and shower/TS chcs thru Sun. Drier/cooler air wl
move in early next week as a shrtwv rdg/sfc hi pres follows an
exiting shrtwv. More showers wl arrive toward mid week.

Sat...Upr MI wl still be under the deep SW flow of warm, moist air
btwn an Upr Rdg over the E and a slowly deamplifying upr trof over
the central CONUS. Combination of pwat fcst up to 1.75 inches
/nearly 250 pct of normal/, aprchg shrtwv/exit region of 60kt h3 jet
max lifting out of the trof/accompanying DPVA, and sfc lo pres trof
extending into the Upr Lks in the presence of diurnal heating should
result in numerous showers/TS with h85 temps near 15C. The main
limiting factor for convective coverage/intensity despite 0-6km
shear fcst as hi as 30-4kts over the W wl be extensive cld cover
that limits the diurnal temp recovery despite some late day mid lvl
drying associated with the mid lvl jet surge. Greatest coverage
should be over the W, where the dynamic forcing is fcst to be more
substantial. Cooling off Lk MI and weaker forcing over the E should
hold down pops there. Models indicate the mid lvl drying wl also
tend to hold down convective coverage later in the day despite
diurnal heating.

Sat ngt...Models in fairly good agreement showing some mid lvl
drying wl occur under h3 jet max during this time of nocturnal
cooling. These factors wl tend to cause any lingering evng
showers/TS to diminish. More fog is likely to dvlp under this mid
lvl drying. Main limiting factor for widespread fog wl be a fairly
steady S wind that wl tend to limit the diurnal temp fall.

Sun...Shrtwv lifting out of deamplifying central trof is fcst to
aprch. Although arrival of the drier mid lvl air may tend to limit
the coverage of showers/TS, the prospect of more aftn sunshine/
daytime heating wl probably result in more aftn convection along
passing cold fnt attendant to slowly departing sfc lo in Ontario and
in area of DPVA/deep lyr qvector cnvgc ahead of the aprchg shrtwv.
The GFS fcst MUCape is near 1700j/kg. Although deep lyr shear fcst
no hier than 30-35 kts may tend to limit the severity of any TS,
presence of mid lvl drying/greater sfc-theta-e difference could
cause some of the stronger storms to drop at least marginally svr
hail along the fnt, where shear may be locally enhanced.

Sun ngt...Arrival of hgt rises/DNVA/deep lyr qvector dvgc/mid lvl
drying in the wake of passing shrtwv/cold fropa wl diminish
shower/TS chances. Since llvl dry advection is fcst to be marginal,
some lo clds may linger, especially where the llvl WNW flow wl
upslope into the Keweenaw.

Mon into Tue...Although models show shrtwv rdging/hgt rises with sfc
hi pres rdg dominating, the GFS does generate some lgt pcpn on Mon
aftn over the scentral CWA along a Lk MI breeze. Considering the
negative dynamics, favor the pcpn-free fcsts. This period wl be
cooler and drier as h85 temps are progged to dip as lo as 5C.

Tue night thru Thu...Not surprisingly, there are timing differences
on the aprch of the next shrtwv fcst to move E along the CONUS/Cndn
border. Some of the extended models show area of pcpn arriving as
soon as Tue ngt, with drying by Tue. The slower guidance shows pcpn
moving in on Wed and lingering thru Thu. Wl rely on the consensus
fcst for now. Temps look to run close to normal before turning
cooler following the shrtwv/attendant cold fropa.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 744 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Fog will burn off pretty quickly this morning. Quite uncertain of
precipitation forecast as convection is being driven by very subtle
waves, but generally expecting periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Fog is expected again
tonight, with the magnitude largely dependent on where rain falls
today and where rain is falling tonight.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 349 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, fog will
linger into at least Sun.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for
     LSZ162-243>246-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 262326
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
726 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Complicated convective forecast as coverage and intensity depends on
smaller scale shortwaves within broad sw flow aloft. Those type of
features are tough to pin down even 12 hours out.

Currently, shortwave moving across became enhanced by convection
late last night and that shortwave with sharp drying has forced the
showers and thunderstorms this aftn. Wave will continue to north of
Upr Michigan this evening so overall should see downward trend to
shra/tsra over the area currently. Thus far the main hazards from
these storms have been lightning and heavy rain. Have had multiple
reports of heavy rain especially over western Upr Michigan. Since
heating has not been as much as expected, instability has been
meager with sfc/ML/MU CAPES staying blo 500j/kg. Effective shear
also around 30 kts which is on the low-end with the weak
instability. LCLs are low enough around 1000m for brief spin up
tornado due to the higher dwpnts around, but this is being offset by
limited low-level shear which is well under 20 kts. Away from these
initial showers/storms could see isold shra/tsra try to reform over
northwest WI where sfc based CAPES this aftn are rising back up to
1000j/kg in wake of the shra/tsra that moved through earlier. A lot
of subsidence behind this initial shortwave per WV loop, so not sure
on the coverage in this redevelopment area. A bit of an enhanced cu
field trying to form currently. Supercell composite (looks at
effective shear and instability) does indicate there could be
supercells, but mean storm motion and right moving motion point to
majority of this activity staying along WI border or farther into WI,
if it occurs at all.

By late evening overall setup should be more quiet. Lots of low-
level moisture with generally lack of cloud cover and light winds
points to widespread fog which may be dense. Any fog will linger
into Fri morning, especially where light winds are onshore off the
Great Lakes.

Looking upstream there is a minimum in convective activity until
southern Neb and northwest MO where more concentrated shortwaves are
along with upper level jet and stronger sfc low. Some remnants of
this with possible additonal waves due to showers and storms forming
farther north across Neb/IA/Ill should will allow chances for
showers and storms to increase by Fri aftn. We`ll see if clearing
is more widespread than today. If so, readings will be able to reach
mid-upr 70s while dwpnts are around 60 degrees. Result will be sfc
based CAPES more in the 1000-1500j/kg range which will be plenty
high enough for organized severe storms since deep layer shear is
forecast to be 35-45 kts. As was case today, everything will depend
on how much insolation we receive before the shortwave(s) arrive by
aftn.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Upper air pattern forecasted to be a trough in the Pacific NW and
another trough in the central plains 00z Sat. There is also a broad
500 mb ridge over the ern U.S. 00z Sat that builds into the upper
Great Lakes region Fri night. This trough moves east into the Upper
Great Lakes Sat night into Sun.

Continues to look unsettled this forecast period through Sun and
hard to pin down any details with the numerous shortwaves moving
through. Will not be a total washout as there could be some brief
dry periods mixed in there from Fri night into Sun, but timing these
is next to impossible with convection that has not even developed
yet. Easiest course is to go with persistence and broadbrush this
forecast. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going
forecast for temperatures or weather.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show two broad 500 MB troughs across
the western and eastern U.S. 12z Mon. The trough over the western
U.S. moves into the Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z
Wed which remains into 12z Thu. Still looks unsettled and
temperatures look to be near normal to slightly above normal for
this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Main area of rain showers has lifted east so expect dry conditions
the rest of the night across the TAF sites. With enough clearing
could see low clouds and fog at all the TAF sites overnight tonight
into Friday morning. Conditions could drop to VLIFR, especially at
CMX where light onshore winds are expected and areas of fog still
linger over Lk Superior. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
are expected Friday afternoon. &&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Expect winds at or below 20 knots through the forecast period. Fog
will continue to be a problem. Have dense fog advisory through Fri.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-
     243>246-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 261952
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
352 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Complicated convective forecast as coverage and intensity depends on
smaller scale shortwaves within broad sw flow aloft. Those type of
features are tough to pin down even 12 hours out.

Currently, shortwave moving across became enhanced by convection
late last night and that shortwave with sharp drying has forced the
showers and thunderstorms this aftn. Wave will continue to north of
Upr Michigan this evening so overall should see downward trend to
shra/tsra over the area currently. Thus far the main hazards from
these storms have been lightning and heavy rain. Have had multiple
reports of heavy rain especially over western Upr Michigan. Since
heating has not been as much as expected, instability has been
meager with sfc/ML/MU CAPES staying blo 500j/kg. Effective shear
also around 30 kts which is on the low-end with the weak
instability. LCLs are low enough around 1000m for brief spin up
tornado due to the higher dwpnts around, but this is being offset by
limited low-level shear which is well under 20 kts. Away from these
initial showers/storms could see isold shra/tsra try to reform over
northwest WI where sfc based CAPES this aftn are rising back up to
1000j/kg in wake of the shra/tsra that moved through earlier. A lot
of subsidence behind this initial shortwave per WV loop, so not sure
on the coverage in this redevelopment area. A bit of an enhanced cu
field trying to form currently. Supercell composite (looks at
effective shear and instability) does indicate there could be
supercells, but mean storm motion and right moving motion point to
majority of this activity staying along WI border or farther into WI,
if it occurs at all.

By late evening overall setup should be more quiet. Lots of low-
level moisture with generally lack of cloud cover and light winds
points to widespread fog which may be dense. Any fog will linger
into Fri morning, especially where light winds are onshore off the
Great Lakes.

Looking upstream there is a minimum in convective activity until
southern Neb and northwest MO where more concentrated shortwaves are
along with upper level jet and stronger sfc low. Some remnants of
this with possible additonal waves due to showers and storms forming
farther north across Neb/IA/Ill should will allow chances for
showers and storms to increase by Fri aftn. We`ll see if clearing
is more widespread than today. If so, readings will be able to reach
mid-upr 70s while dwpnts are around 60 degrees. Result will be sfc
based CAPES more in the 1000-1500j/kg range which will be plenty
high enough for organized severe storms since deep layer shear is
forecast to be 35-45 kts. As was case today, everything will depend
on how much insolation we receive before the shortwave(s) arrive by
aftn.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Upper air pattern forecasted to be a trough in the Pacific NW and
another trough in the central plains 00z Sat. There is also a broad
500 mb ridge over the ern U.S. 00z Sat that builds into the upper
Great Lakes region Fri night. This trough moves east into the Upper
Great Lakes Sat night into Sun.

Continues to look unsettled this forecast period through Sun and
hard to pin down any details with the numerous shortwaves moving
through. Will not be a total washout as there could be some brief
dry periods mixed in there from Fri night into Sun, but timing these
is next to impossible with convection that has not even developed
yet. Easiest course is to go with persistence and broadbrush this
forecast. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going
forecast for temperatures or weather.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show two broad 500 MB troughs across
the western and eastern U.S. 12z Mon. The trough over the western
U.S. moves into the Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z
Wed which remains into 12z Thu. Still looks unsettled and
temperatures look to be near normal to slightly above normal for
this forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 218 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites
this afternoon. Best chance of prevailing thunder will be at KSAW.
Distubance causing rain lifts out of area this evening. With enough
clearing could see low clouds and fog at all the TAF sites overnight
tonight into Friday morning. Conditions could drop to VLIFR,
especially at CMX as winds due to closer proximity of the widespread
fog on Lk Superior. More showers and thunderstorms should roll back
in late Friday morning or into Friday afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Expect winds at or below 20 knots through the forecast period. Fog
will continue to be a problem. Have dense fog advisory through Fri.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162-
     243>246-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





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