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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300917
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.

TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300917
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.

TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.

MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 300523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 300523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 292351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO VFR WX WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LLVL
DRYING ACCENTUATED BY GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SN THAT FELL TODAY. IWD HAS ALREADY SEEN THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. CLOSER
APRCH OF SFC HI PRES/RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS
TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK ON MON. EVEN IF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO IWD LATE IN THE DAY ON MON...VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THRU 00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO VFR WX WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LLVL
DRYING ACCENTUATED BY GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SN THAT FELL TODAY. IWD HAS ALREADY SEEN THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. CLOSER
APRCH OF SFC HI PRES/RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS
TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK ON MON. EVEN IF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO IWD LATE IN THE DAY ON MON...VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THRU 00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 292351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO VFR WX WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LLVL
DRYING ACCENTUATED BY GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SN THAT FELL TODAY. IWD HAS ALREADY SEEN THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. CLOSER
APRCH OF SFC HI PRES/RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS
TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK ON MON. EVEN IF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO IWD LATE IN THE DAY ON MON...VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THRU 00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 292351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RA GIVEN TEMPS AOA 32F OVER THE W
HALF...ENHANCED CLDS SHOWN ON STLT IMAGERY INDICATING DEEP MSTR THRU
THE DGZ WITH STEADIER PCPN IMPACTING MAINLY THE E HALF AS WELL AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SNDGS THAT SHOW ABSENCE OF ANY ELEVATED WARM LYR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD TO GIVE WAY TO VFR WX WITH LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LLVL
DRYING ACCENTUATED BY GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SN THAT FELL TODAY. IWD HAS ALREADY SEEN THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AIR...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. CLOSER
APRCH OF SFC HI PRES/RELAXING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW THE GUSTY WINDS
TO DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK ON MON. EVEN IF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS
SOME LIGHT PCPN TO IWD LATE IN THE DAY ON MON...VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THRU 00Z.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 291938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 291938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEADING TO MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN/SNOW. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON MONDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
TWO EMBEDDED WAVES WITHING THIS FEATURE...WITH THE FIRST DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY MISS THE U.P. BUT THE TRAILING WAVE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
EAST). WHILE THE MODELS HAD BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED IN ON
THE SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SECONDARY WAVE...WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z/12Z GFS/GEM/NAM ALL FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
TRAILING WAVE. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE
OTHER HAND AIR MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TRAILING WAVE AND ONLY SHOW
LIMITED PRECIP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERNING...AS THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF ADVISORY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES WOULD JUST LEAD TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW. OVERALL...FELT THE GOING POP/QPF FORECAST WAS A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITH THE SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR
THIS ISSUANCE (WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS UP TO THE POPS TOWARDS
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT).
HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO NARROW IN A SOLUTION IN THE
NEXT 12-24HRS. THAT TRACK UNCERTAINTY ALSO LEADS TO A TRICKY
RAIN/SNOW LINE AND HAVE IT RUNNING ALONG/NEAR THE BORDER FROM
IRONWOOD TO IRON MOUNTAIN INITIALLY BEFORE IT PRECIPITATES ENOUGH TO
CHANGE IT TO SNOW. ULTIMATELY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS THOSE HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO (ALONG WITH
WETBULB TEMPS). WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW...ALL OF THE FORCING IS
WITHIN THE DGZ AND WITH LIMITED WINDS THERE WON/T BE MUCH FOR
FRACTURING. THUS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS AND
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS CONTINUES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEST AND 40S OVER THE
EAST UNDER GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS ABOVE 925MB (50-55KTS)...SO WIND GUSTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE MIXING DEPTH. THINK THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP AREAS OVER THE WEST TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35MPH
RANGE AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES UP IN THAT AREA. THE CONCERN OVER THE
EAST WILL BE THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITING SOME OF THE GUSTS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGEST. WITH THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORIES...THINK THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTY AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO TAP
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH HELP FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THEN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH OR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND TRAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT (AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING)...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS INSISTENT ON A SLOWER TRACK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IN TURN THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA (FOR THE LAST 6 RUNS). THIS KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE DRY SLOT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS PLENTY OF WARM
AIR OVER THE AREA. THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
MAYBE 60S UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z GFS/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MUCH FASTER SOLUTION WITH
THE COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WHILE THE AREA WOULD LIKELY STILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY PEAK IN THE 40S AND
THEN STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS/GEM HAS SLOWED
THE COLD AIR DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. WHENEVER THE
COLDER AIR AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COLDER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
UNDER DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSH THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS (AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 291924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 291924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM TAKES THE DEEP MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVES BOTH OF THEM OUT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BOTH
RETURN IN THE WEST BY MON EVENING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH DIFFERENT PCPN TYPES BEING THE PROBLEM
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE IT ALL SWITCHES OVER TO ALL SNOW. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA MIXED IN WITH
THE SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS REALLY DO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
HARD TO ARGUE WITH ITS OCCURRENCE AS THE LIFT MUST NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY PUT THE PCPN OVER TO ALL SNOW...SO KEPT SOME
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PULLS OUT AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
MUST ALSO BE NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ALL THE SUPERCOOLED WATER IN
THE COLUMN. THE PREDOMINANT PCPN THOUGH WILL BE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
THINK THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE GLAZE FROM THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
DID KEEP SOME PCPN IN OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS AS THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE ERN CWA INTO
THIS EVENING WITH FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET GOING THERE...BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS AS DRY AIR WAS SLOWER TO LET PCPN MOVE
IN THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST EXCEPT WENT DRIER FOR MON AND HAVE SOME POPS IN THE
FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291710
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291710
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 291710
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
     014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 291147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG SOUTH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER CIGS/VSBY AS MIXED
PCPN...MAINLY SNOW OVERSPREADS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FO
LOWER IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE AT CMX
AND SAW... WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IWD WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND COMPONENT THAT WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WILL BRING A PORTION OF THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SFC...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO
FOLOW THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG
WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG SOUTH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER CIGS/VSBY AS MIXED
PCPN...MAINLY SNOW OVERSPREADS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FO
LOWER IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE AT CMX
AND SAW... WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IWD WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND COMPONENT THAT WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WILL BRING A PORTION OF THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SFC...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO
FOLOW THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG
WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 291147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG SOUTH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER CIGS/VSBY AS MIXED
PCPN...MAINLY SNOW OVERSPREADS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FO
LOWER IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE AT CMX
AND SAW... WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IWD WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND COMPONENT THAT WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WILL BRING A PORTION OF THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SFC...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO
FOLOW THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG
WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 290927
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 290927
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.

IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 290812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 290812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 290812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.

MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.

THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 290521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 290521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     263.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LSZ264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 282329
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS S WINDS INCRS TNGT ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA
SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR LKS...EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TAF SITES. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST
DESPITE INCRSG HI CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO ON SUN...SOME
MIXED PCPN WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL
ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA. THE USLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT
CMX WL SLOW THE IMROVEMENT AT THAT SITE...WITH IFR CIGS LINGERING
THERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 282329
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS S WINDS INCRS TNGT ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA
SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR LKS...EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TAF SITES. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST
DESPITE INCRSG HI CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO ON SUN...SOME
MIXED PCPN WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL
ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA. THE USLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT
CMX WL SLOW THE IMROVEMENT AT THAT SITE...WITH IFR CIGS LINGERING
THERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 282329
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS S WINDS INCRS TNGT ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA
SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR LKS...EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TAF SITES. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST
DESPITE INCRSG HI CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO ON SUN...SOME
MIXED PCPN WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL
ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA. THE USLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT
CMX WL SLOW THE IMROVEMENT AT THAT SITE...WITH IFR CIGS LINGERING
THERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 282329
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS S WINDS INCRS TNGT ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES
MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA
SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR LKS...EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TAF SITES. WITH LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST
DESPITE INCRSG HI CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO ON SUN...SOME
MIXED PCPN WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER
IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL
ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA. THE USLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT
CMX WL SLOW THE IMROVEMENT AT THAT SITE...WITH IFR CIGS LINGERING
THERE THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 282006
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 282006
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 282006
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 282006
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...ACTIVE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS WELL...

ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AS BUNDLE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA TRANSLATES OVER
NORTHERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES. MAY SNEAK SOME A COUPLE WARMER DAYS
IN AS WE BEGIN APRIL. BEST CHANCE FOR WARMER DAYS WILL BE WED AND
THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THIS WARMTH WILL COME STRONG WINDS AS WELL.

ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS WITH TAIL END OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FOR FAR EAST
WITH LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE DEPARTS WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT TEMPS WARMER
THAN -10C...SO MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY TO DIMINISH AS DZ OR EVEN LGT
RAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER INCH OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS THOUGH.
COORD WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER AND DECIDED THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL GO THROUGH 11 PM ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO COVER LINGERING
SNOW AND SLOPPY MIX OF SNOW/DRIZZLE. KEPT HIGHER POPS NEAR LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST ALONG TRACK OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND AS THIS AREA IS WHERE H85
THERMAL TROUGH LATCHES UP WITH RESIDUAL H85- H7 MOISTURE. UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH NW FLOW WILL DRIVE THE POPS ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR.
NW WINDS COULD BE PRETTY FIERCE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COOLING IS NOT ENOUGH TO TURN THE SOUNDING TO AN UNSTABLE
PROFILE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT 3-6HR PRESSURE RISES TO 10 MB
SHIFTING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK...H95 WINDS OVER 40 KTS AND H85 WINDS OVER 50 KTS...GUSTS TO
ADVY LEVEL SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE KEWEENAW. WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GENERALLY QUIET ON MONDAY...THOUGH STILL BREEZY WITH LINGERING
GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THERMAL
TROUGH IS IN VCNTY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM ON MONDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERD SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE EAST HALF. MOISTURE
DEPTH TO AROUND H85 MAY CUT DOWN ON COVERAGE/EXTENT...BUT EVEN SO
CARRIED SMALL CHANCES. SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S
IN THE AFTN...SO COULD EVEN SEE RAIN MIX IN WITH THE SNOW.

EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS CLIPPER
TYPE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS MAINLY IN HOW
FAR EAST SHORTWAVE TRACKS AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. THIS AFFECTS WHERE
STRONGEST LIFT OCCURS AND ALSO HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH WHICH EVENTUALLY DEEPENS INTO MORE CLOSED
OFF SFC LOW AS IT SLIDES OVER WI. 12Z NAM TRENDED FARTHER EAST WHILE
12Z GFS KEEPS WITH SHORTWAVE AND HEAVIER QPF STAYING MOSTLY OVER
WEST TO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. GFS IDEA SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS COUPLE
RUNS AND ALSO TO THE 00Z ECMWF. 12Z ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE VERY
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...SO MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THE STRIPE OF HEAVIER QPF. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NAM IDEA
AS JUST 24 HR AGO THE MODELS SHOWED THAT FAR EAST OF A TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM...BUT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MIXING RATIOS UP TO 2.5G/KG
INTO THE SYSTEM WOULD POINT TO 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN 6-9 HR
PERIOD...THAT IS IF PRECIP FALLS AS ONLY SNOW. SOUNDINGS POINT TO A
LOT OF LIFT OCCURRING AT TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C...SUGGESTING A
WETTER SNOW WITH SLR/S AROUND 10:1. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAY SEE THE PRECIP TRY
TO DIMINISH AND END AS FLURRIES/FZDZ. NE WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF SFC
LOW WOULD FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN TO SEE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC RIDGE CROSSES WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY AIR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTN...WHICH WILL DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE OF SATURATION APPEARS OVER THE EAST CWA. OVER THE
WEST...THE DRY AIR MAY PROHIBIT OF MUCH PRECIP AT ALL. ENOUGH
WARMING IN LOW-LEVELS THAT WHATEVER PRECIP OCCURS WOULD TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN. SINCE THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...1000-700MB DRY SLOT SWEEPS OVER UPR MICHIGAN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GFS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW COMPARED TO ECMWF/GEM-NH SO IT SHOWS MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK OVER NORTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS...SO WILL HEAD TOWARD
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF SFC LOW AND LOW-LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE FALLS MOVING OVER
AND NORTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT STRONG WINDS. THICKENING MID CLOUDS
WILL CUT DOWN HEATING/MIXING AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP PROFILE ALSO
WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SFC. WILL BE A
BALANCING ACT BTWN THE STABLE PROFILE AND SFC GRADIENT. WILL LEAN ON
THE BLYR WINDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS WED
AFTN 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOULD STAY WINDY INTO WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST
AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPS PROBABLY NOT COLD
ENOUGH FOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LK
SUPERIOR.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CASE IN
POINT IS THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
ON FRIDAY TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WET HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QPF WITH THAT MODEL RUN SHOWED OVER AN INCH IN SOME
AREAS. CONSISTENCY IN THAT IDEA IS LOW THOUGH AS 12Z/27 MARCH RUN
LOOKED A LOT LIKE LATEST GFS IDEA IN SHOWING A FLATTER WAVE AND ONLY
LGT QPF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED SYSTEM COMING IN
SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR NORTH. OVERALL...GIVEN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PLOWING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK
CANNOT SAY A STRONGER SYSTEM MAY NOT HAPPEN...BUT ALSO CANNOT BUY
OFF ON THIS COMPLETELY YET.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NW. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUN.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE COMING IN LATE TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO HEAD
OUT LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE MOVING IN BY SUN
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL.

QUIET FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS PCPN HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND THEN
FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED IN A HURRY. WILL HAVE VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT TO WORK THROUGH FIRST AND HELD OFF ON THE PCPN UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AND INCREASED POPS  SUNDAY MORNING TO
CATEGORICAL. LOOKED AT NUMEROUS SOUNDINGS FOR MIXED PCPN AND LOOKED
TO ME LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WOULD STAY AS SNOW ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY LOW
WITH PLENTY OF EVAPORATION TO COOL THE SOUNDINGS ALL BELOW ZERO.
EVEN IF THERE IS SOME WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH...FEELING IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR TONIGHT...WOULD
COOL THIS BACK BELOW WET BULB ZERO.

THE WARM AIR TRIES TO MAKE IT INTO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BY THAT TIME...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING OUT AND THERE COULD BE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE EAST...THE
PCPN WILL STAY AS ALL SNOW AND COULD SEE A QUICK 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES AND FOR THAT REASON WENT WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THEM FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM 0.20 TO
0.35 INCH WITH SNOW RATIOS FAIRLY LOW IN A WET AND HEAVY SNOW. FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
USED A NON DUIRNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281718
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281718
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281718
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281718
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT ALL SITES SUN MORNING AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH IT AT
IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT KIWD AND KCMX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
SUN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 281137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT KIWD AND KCMX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
SUN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 281137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL
BE LLWS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT KIWD AND KCMX SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
SUN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 280907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280907
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN ONTARIO AND
THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT LEAST INTO
THE 0.15-0.30 INCH RANGE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THE WEST HALF
AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM ISQ AND SENEY TO ERY. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW
LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS
IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.

MON...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL END BY
AFTERNOON LEAVING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. HOWEVER...THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBAND
GIVEN MODELS VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

WED-FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AN
INFLUX OF WARMER AIR...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SHOULD DROP BACK BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD/VARIABILITY BY FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH WITH THE EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 280739
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280739
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 280527
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280527
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 280527
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 280527
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 272324
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
S WINDS MAY APRCH 10 KTS LATE ON SAT AT IWD UNDER TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND NEXT LO PRES MOVING
INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 272324
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
S WINDS MAY APRCH 10 KTS LATE ON SAT AT IWD UNDER TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND NEXT LO PRES MOVING
INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 272324
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
S WINDS MAY APRCH 10 KTS LATE ON SAT AT IWD UNDER TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES DEPARTING TO THE E AND NEXT LO PRES MOVING
INTO NW ONTARIO.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271859
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271859
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271859
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VERY CHILLY NIGHT INLAND...

QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH MQT
VWP INDICATING INVERSIONS BLO 3KFT. NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THAT EXTENDED WELL INLAND EVEN TO PARTS OF MENOMINEE AND DELTA
COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY RETREATED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AND NOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER
MANITOBA AND DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A SWATH OF LGT SNOW...BUT BASED ON
H7-H4 RH PROGS FM MODELS...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVER UPPER
LAKES TONIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS PEEL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET INLAND. LOWERED MINS WELL BLO ZERO FOR FAVORED COLD
SPOTS. THIS MORNING WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GETTING
COLD...SAW A FEW LOCATIONS BLO ZERO AND THE COOP LOCATION IN IRON
COUNTY NEAR STAMBAUGH EVEN FELL TO 16 BLO ZERO. TEMPS BENEATH THE
HIGH UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO THIS MORNING WERE AS LOW AS 20S BLO. NO
REASON TEMPS WILL NOT DROP TO AROUND 20 BLO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
TYPICAL COLD INLAND SPOTS. BASED ON AVAILABLE PAST DATA...THESE
READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR SOME SITES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS ONLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE AFTN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL
CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT FLAT LOWER CU
CLOUDS TRY TO FORM OVER INLAND WEST IN THE AFTN. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START...DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPS OVER FAR WEST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE. SO...IN
SOME PLACES THIS ENDS UP BEING A DIURNAL SWING OF OVER 60 DEGREES!
COOLER EXCEPTION FOR HIGHS WILL BE OVER EAST AS SW WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO.
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST HALF.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY MAINLY BLO 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271653
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND THAT STARTED YESTERDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED INLAND OVER THE N CENTRAL...WITH NO
NEW STRINGS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON THE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY. OVER
THE W IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE LAST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GONE
THROUGH CMX...DROPPING THE VIS DOWN TO 6SM TEMPORARITY. LOOK FOR THE
STEADY N WINDS TO KEEP THEM GOING DOWN W LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR IWD THE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PUSHING/CONCENTRATING THE BANDS OVER N WI. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO...E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IT/S
GRIP ACROSS UPPER MI...LIMITED IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.

UNDER THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 30F...WARMEST ALONG THE WI BORDER. IT LOOKS TO BE A
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE
ZERO...COLDEST WELL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR -10 TO -15F OVER IRON COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT STRONG PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
LOOK FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS WITH SW TO W GALES OF
35KTS /POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40KTS/ LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW GALES TO 35KTS WILL LINGER OVER THE E HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A RIDGE TO PASS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK SE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271653
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND THAT STARTED YESTERDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED INLAND OVER THE N CENTRAL...WITH NO
NEW STRINGS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON THE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY. OVER
THE W IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE LAST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GONE
THROUGH CMX...DROPPING THE VIS DOWN TO 6SM TEMPORARITY. LOOK FOR THE
STEADY N WINDS TO KEEP THEM GOING DOWN W LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR IWD THE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PUSHING/CONCENTRATING THE BANDS OVER N WI. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO...E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IT/S
GRIP ACROSS UPPER MI...LIMITED IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.

UNDER THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 30F...WARMEST ALONG THE WI BORDER. IT LOOKS TO BE A
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE
ZERO...COLDEST WELL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR -10 TO -15F OVER IRON COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT STRONG PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
LOOK FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS WITH SW TO W GALES OF
35KTS /POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40KTS/ LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW GALES TO 35KTS WILL LINGER OVER THE E HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A RIDGE TO PASS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK SE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271653
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND THAT STARTED YESTERDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED INLAND OVER THE N CENTRAL...WITH NO
NEW STRINGS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON THE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY. OVER
THE W IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE LAST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GONE
THROUGH CMX...DROPPING THE VIS DOWN TO 6SM TEMPORARITY. LOOK FOR THE
STEADY N WINDS TO KEEP THEM GOING DOWN W LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR IWD THE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PUSHING/CONCENTRATING THE BANDS OVER N WI. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO...E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IT/S
GRIP ACROSS UPPER MI...LIMITED IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.

UNDER THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 30F...WARMEST ALONG THE WI BORDER. IT LOOKS TO BE A
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE
ZERO...COLDEST WELL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR -10 TO -15F OVER IRON COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT STRONG PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
LOOK FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS WITH SW TO W GALES OF
35KTS /POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40KTS/ LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW GALES TO 35KTS WILL LINGER OVER THE E HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A RIDGE TO PASS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK SE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271653
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HAVE BEEN CONTINUING THE TREND THAT STARTED YESTERDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED INLAND OVER THE N CENTRAL...WITH NO
NEW STRINGS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON THE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY. OVER
THE W IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE LAST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GONE
THROUGH CMX...DROPPING THE VIS DOWN TO 6SM TEMPORARITY. LOOK FOR THE
STEADY N WINDS TO KEEP THEM GOING DOWN W LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR IWD THE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...PUSHING/CONCENTRATING THE BANDS OVER N WI. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO...E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IT/S
GRIP ACROSS UPPER MI...LIMITED IF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.

UNDER THIS COOL HIGH PRESSURE...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 30F...WARMEST ALONG THE WI BORDER. IT LOOKS TO BE A
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE
ZERO...COLDEST WELL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR -10 TO -15F OVER IRON COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERH THAT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO FROM THE
PACIFIC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MILDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA BUT WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PCPN FROM
SUN THROUGH THE MIDDLS OF NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
LAKES AND OH VALLY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MODERATING
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WEAK WAA WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BACK
TO -7C TO -10C WILL SUPPORT MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 30 EAST TO THE
MID 30S ENTRL AND AROUND 40 SOUTH AND WEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN LAKES SUNDAY. 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS AT
LEAST INTO THE 0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL FALL AS SNOW IN THE MORNING AND MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN ONLY AS THE STRONGER LIFT DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH IN
LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW VEERING TO THE WNW BEHIND
THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS
FCST...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT MIXING
TOWARD THE SFC BRINGS RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MAY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE KEWEENAW AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES OUT MON AFTERNOON. WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...HIGHS WIL CLIMB TO AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTH AND EAST TO THE
MID AND UPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.

MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES
THAT COULD PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOWER.

WED-THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAA PCPN
INTO UPPER MI BY WED INTO WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
LINGERING COLD AIR FOR SNOW...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A QUICKER
TRANSIITION TO MAINLY RAIN WITH TEMP REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LINGERING ISOLD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH BRIEF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KSAW NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT STRONG PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY.
LOOK FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS WITH SW TO W GALES OF
35KTS /POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40KTS/ LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

A LOW TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO ON SUNDAY WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NW GALES TO 35KTS WILL LINGER OVER THE E HALF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A RIDGE TO PASS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN TRACK SE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF





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