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000
FXUS63 KMQT 301139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.

GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.

IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ADVANCED AS FAR S AS NEAR KCMX...BUT
HAS NEARLY STALLED NOW. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXPECTED
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS TODAY...KCMX SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO PREVAILING VFR BY AFTN. LOCATED FARTHER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...
KIWD WILL SEE IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.
DEVELOPING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO PREVAILING VFR DURING THE MID AFTN HRS. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
WIND THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX
TONIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN AS
WINDS VEER TO THE SE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THAT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO THE SE OF THE AREA WILL ADVECT BACK TO THE
NW...BRINGING LOW MVFR CIGS TO KSAW OVERNIGHT. UNDER S TO SE UPSLOPE
FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FARTHER TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 301139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.

GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.

IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN MVFR
TO IFR CIGS. THE CLEARING LINE HAS ADVANCED AS FAR S AS NEAR KCMX...BUT
HAS NEARLY STALLED NOW. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXPECTED
SLOWLY VEERING WINDS TODAY...KCMX SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT
TO PREVAILING VFR BY AFTN. LOCATED FARTHER INTO THE LOW CLOUDS...
KIWD WILL SEE IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING.
DEVELOPING LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT TO PREVAILING VFR DURING THE MID AFTN HRS. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE
WIND THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX
TONIGHT. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...THEN AS
WINDS VEER TO THE SE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THAT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING TO THE SE OF THE AREA WILL ADVECT BACK TO THE
NW...BRINGING LOW MVFR CIGS TO KSAW OVERNIGHT. UNDER S TO SE UPSLOPE
FLOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FARTHER TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300935
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.

GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.

IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 300935
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
N THRU WRN NEBRASKA. IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS A SHARP RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MO THRU MN INTO MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED SHOWERS HERE YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER LWR MI AND SRN
ONTARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION...RESULTING IN OVC
SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS UPPER MI WITH ONE EXCEPTION. DRIER AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ADVANCED S ACROSS CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE TIP OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN
ONTARIO.

GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLEARING HAS ADVANCED S TO THE TIP
OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION RESULTING FROM THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL SLOW
AND STALL THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THIS OCCURRING. GIVEN WHERE THE CLEARING LINE IS
UPSTREAM TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TODAY. FOR NOW...FCST
WILL SHOW CLOUDS DOMINATING THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUAL CLEARING
IN THE AFTN. IT MAY END UP BEING THAT DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING THEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING FROM THERE. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FROM
INHERITED FCST TO REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC CLEARING TREND. TEMPS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F OVER THE NCNTRL WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
LINGER LONGEST. OTHERWISE...50S WIL BE THE RULE TODAY.

IF SKIES DO CLEAR THIS AFTN/EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS SPREADING E FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THRU THE DAKOTAS BUT MORE SO DUE TO A RETURN OF LOWER CLOUDS
LIFTING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE. ALTHOUGH POTENT SHORTWAVE
WILL BE TAKING A TRACK WELL W OF HERE...RIBBON OF FAIRLY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY SPREAD SCT
SHRA AS FAR E AS FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WITH HIGH PRES JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 20KT THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE E. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN UNDER 20KT
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN S TO SE WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. THAT COLD FRONT WILL REACH LAKE SUPERIOR THU...AND THEN A
WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW ORGANIZES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES N THRU NRN ONTARIO...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NW GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT SOME POINT
FRI AND/OR SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300836
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
436 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 300836
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
436 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ATTENTION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WED INTO THE CWA AT 00Z SAT
WHILE DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AS IS GENERALLY
AGREED ON BY NWP. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A
LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRI NIGHT...BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS POINT WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT DOES INCREASE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH MODELS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
ONE THING THAT CAN BE SAID WITH CERTAINTY IS THAT THE PATTERN WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN LAST WEEK.

SHOWERS /POSSIBLY WITH SOME THUNDER/ IS STILL EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE CWA WED THROUGH THU DUE TO
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MAIN ISSUE
TO POINT OUT FROM A CONFIDENCE STANDPOINT IS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL PROBABLY EJECT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W /AS SHOWN BY
NWP/...BUT THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON THE STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF
ANY ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AND/OR GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT
ACCURATELY TIMING THOSE OUT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN ON WED AND THU DUE TO THE WAA AND
RESULTING WARM AIRMASS /850MB TEMPS OF 10-13C/.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH TEARS INTO THE AREA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH IT. AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE 850MB TEMPS BELOW 0C BY THE END OF
THE DAY FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
RESULTING HEIGHT FALLS AS IT MOVES IN...PERIODS OF PRECIP DOES LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SFC LOW LEVEL FEATURES. SOME
MODELS /MAINLY THE GFS AND NAM/ SHOW A DEEPER SFC LOW TRANSITING THE
CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI /AS THE GFS HAS SHOWN VARIOUS ITERATIONS OF
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS/. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GALES WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO ADD
THIS SCENARIO TO THE FORECAST. PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT IS A BIT
MORE CERTAIN SINCE IT WILL BE LESS DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND MORE
TO SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS AND WNW-NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LEADING TO LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN FACT...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS IS...SNOW IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE PICTURE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY /ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS/. DID ADD SNOW CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN AND NERN UPPER MI SAT NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S....WITH LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

GOING COMPLETELY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS IDEA SUN AND MON GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07









000
FXUS63 KMQT 300537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER...WITH AN EXITING SFC RIDGE AND 500MB RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED
TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC AND INITIAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY EJECT N
ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WAA ON S FLOW...AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE W THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WARMEST ALONG THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR/.

LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAPE VALUES WERE MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 100J/KG...SO KEPT ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NOTHING.

THE SPECIFICS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL BRINGING THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH...THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY ON. THE
HANDLING OF THE MAIN LOW SINKING IN FROM N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
STILL VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 29/12Z ECMWF DIVES THE LOW OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL
HAVE IT ACROSS N MANITOBA. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OR
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE E U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH
THE BULK OF MOISTURE EXITING E SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ANYTIME SOON. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS
TO BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RANGING FROM
-4 TO +2C AT 850MB. WITH W TO NW FLOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IF NOT SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER...WITH AN EXITING SFC RIDGE AND 500MB RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED
TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC AND INITIAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY EJECT N
ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WAA ON S FLOW...AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE W THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WARMEST ALONG THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR/.

LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAPE VALUES WERE MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 100J/KG...SO KEPT ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NOTHING.

THE SPECIFICS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL BRINGING THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH...THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY ON. THE
HANDLING OF THE MAIN LOW SINKING IN FROM N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
STILL VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 29/12Z ECMWF DIVES THE LOW OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL
HAVE IT ACROSS N MANITOBA. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OR
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE E U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH
THE BULK OF MOISTURE EXITING E SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ANYTIME SOON. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS
TO BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RANGING FROM
-4 TO +2C AT 850MB. WITH W TO NW FLOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IF NOT SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. HOWEVER...SOME DRYING WILL PUSH
INTO UPPER MI...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS CLIMBING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2K FT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX BY LATE
MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTN AND AT KSAW BY LATE AFTN WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 300005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER...WITH AN EXITING SFC RIDGE AND 500MB RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED
TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC AND INITIAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY EJECT N
ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WAA ON S FLOW...AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE W THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WARMEST ALONG THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR/.

LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAPE VALUES WERE MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 100J/KG...SO KEPT ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NOTHING.

THE SPECIFICS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL BRINGING THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH...THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY ON. THE
HANDLING OF THE MAIN LOW SINKING IN FROM N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
STILL VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 29/12Z ECMWF DIVES THE LOW OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL
HAVE IT ACROSS N MANITOBA. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OR
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE E U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH
THE BULK OF MOISTURE EXITING E SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ANYTIME SOON. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS
TO BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RANGING FROM
-4 TO +2C AT 850MB. WITH W TO NW FLOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IF NOT SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CIGS NEAR THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. OVERNIGHT...SOME DRYING WILL
PUSH INTO UPPER MI WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 2K FT BY TUE MORNING.
DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX TUE MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTERNOON
AND LATE TUE AT SAW WHERE MORE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER...WITH AN EXITING SFC RIDGE AND 500MB RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED
TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC AND INITIAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY EJECT N
ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WAA ON S FLOW...AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE W THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WARMEST ALONG THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR/.

LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAPE VALUES WERE MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 100J/KG...SO KEPT ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NOTHING.

THE SPECIFICS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL BRINGING THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH...THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY ON. THE
HANDLING OF THE MAIN LOW SINKING IN FROM N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
STILL VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 29/12Z ECMWF DIVES THE LOW OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL
HAVE IT ACROSS N MANITOBA. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OR
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE E U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH
THE BULK OF MOISTURE EXITING E SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ANYTIME SOON. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS
TO BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RANGING FROM
-4 TO +2C AT 850MB. WITH W TO NW FLOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IF NOT SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CIGS NEAR THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. OVERNIGHT...SOME DRYING WILL
PUSH INTO UPPER MI WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 2K FT BY TUE MORNING.
DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX TUE MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTERNOON
AND LATE TUE AT SAW WHERE MORE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 292016
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER...WITH AN EXITING SFC RIDGE AND 500MB RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED
TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC AND INITIAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY EJECT N
ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WAA ON S FLOW...AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE W THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WARMEST ALONG THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR/.

LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAPE VALUES WERE MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 100J/KG...SO KEPT ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NOTHING.

THE SPECIFICS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL BRINGING THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH...THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY ON. THE
HANDLING OF THE MAIN LOW SINKING IN FROM N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
STILL VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 29/12Z ECMWF DIVES THE LOW OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL
HAVE IT ACROSS N MANITOBA. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OR
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE E U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH
THE BULK OF MOISTURE EXITING E SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ANYTIME SOON. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS
TO BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RANGING FROM
-4 TO +2C AT 850MB. WITH W TO NW FLOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IF NOT SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE  PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 292016
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER...WITH AN EXITING SFC RIDGE AND 500MB RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED
TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC AND INITIAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY EJECT N
ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WAA ON S FLOW...AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE W THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WARMEST ALONG THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR/.

LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAPE VALUES WERE MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 100J/KG...SO KEPT ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NOTHING.

THE SPECIFICS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL BRINGING THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH...THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY ON. THE
HANDLING OF THE MAIN LOW SINKING IN FROM N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
STILL VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 29/12Z ECMWF DIVES THE LOW OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL
HAVE IT ACROSS N MANITOBA. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OR
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE E U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH
THE BULK OF MOISTURE EXITING E SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ANYTIME SOON. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS
TO BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RANGING FROM
-4 TO +2C AT 850MB. WITH W TO NW FLOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IF NOT SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE  PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE  PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291713
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.

INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.

ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE  PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 291713
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.

INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.

ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT KIWD...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CAUSE
MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. KCMX WILL HAVE IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT KSAW...UPSLOPE -DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE  PERSISTENT INTO TUE MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291143
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.

INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.

ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED...CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. WHILE KCMX SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH
OCNL IFR THIS MORNING...BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW AT KIWD WILL LIKELY KEEP
THAT TERMINAL UNDER IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTN. MAY SEE SOME LIFR AT
KIWD AS WELL. AT KSAW...POST FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO
UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS. ITS POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THRU TONIGHT AT KSAW DUE TO BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291143
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.

INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.

ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED...CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. WHILE KCMX SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH
OCNL IFR THIS MORNING...BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW AT KIWD WILL LIKELY KEEP
THAT TERMINAL UNDER IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTN. MAY SEE SOME LIFR AT
KIWD AS WELL. AT KSAW...POST FRONTAL BAND OF -SHRA WILL GIVE WAY TO
UPSLOPE -SHRA/-DZ BY LATE MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KSAW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE MORNING WITH ONLY
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE
PERSISTENT INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS. ITS POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS COULD LINGER THRU TONIGHT AT KSAW DUE TO BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 290936
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
536 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.

INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.

ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 290936
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
536 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING
SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED SHARP COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL MN THRU WI AND THEN ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN
UPPER MI. IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC WAVE MAY BE LOCATED ALONG THE TROF
IN UPPER MI. AS EXPECTED...NEARLY ALL PCPN IS OCCURRING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A NICE RIBBON OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET.

INHERITED FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TODAY.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION TODAY.
THUS...UPPER JET FORCING AND CORRESPONDING LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON BAND OF PCPN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR PCPN TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AND LIGHTER
WITH TIME AS THE PCPN MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FCST AREA. OVERALL...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PCPN TIMING THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIGGER CHANGE WAS TO
DIMINISH POPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES.
CYCLONIC FLOW/ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE-850MB DELTA T
NEARING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD WORK TO
HOLD IN SOME -RA/-SHRA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER
MI WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE BEST. WITH CAA AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY
HOLDING TOUGH THRU THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE
40S ACROSS THE W AND NCNTRL AND SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ELSEWHERE.

ANY LINGERING PCPN (-SHRA/-DZ) MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END
TONIGHT AS GRADUALLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND AS
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MODERATES...ENDING ANY LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN.
TEMPS POSE A CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW LOW TEMPS
FALL. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT. BEST CHC FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PROBABLY LATE
IN THE NIGHT...WILL BE OVER THE W WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN THAT AREA MAY FALL TOWARD
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...N TO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE TODAY...
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DIMINISHING OF WINDS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH COLD FRONT MOVING FARTHER
FROM THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS OVER NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT
WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE
UPPER LAKES BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 290826
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 290826
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST STARTING 12Z TUE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE PASS THROUGH THE CWA. THE
AIRMASS WARMS A BIT ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING FROM 7-11C AT 12Z TUE TO 8-14C AT 00Z WED. WILL NOT
SEE FULL SFC WARMING POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS DUE TO A CLOUDY START
TO THE DAY AND SLOW CLEARING...BUT HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY BE IN
THE 50S.

W OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE REGION IS A AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE E...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING IN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SET TO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THIS LEADS TO RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA FRI MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ERN CWA ON THU. THE RAIN MAY HAVE
SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...BUT THAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN SO...MODEL
AGREEMENT DOES ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE LIKELY POPS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 8-14C 850MB
TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.
HIGH FOR THU WILL BE SIMILAR SINCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY AND IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

REAL SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE LONG TERM IS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS GETS REINFORCED
BY ENERGY MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP AND MOVES
INTO THE CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO SAT...BEFORE MOVING E BY SUN. WHILE
MODELS DO AGREE WELL ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN...THERE ARE MANY
UNCERTAINTIES ON A SMALLER SCALE WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY AND
CYCLOGENESIS/SFC FEATURE DEVELOPMENT. CAN SAY WITH GOOD CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL BE COLDER AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO BELOW 2C BY FRI
EVENING AND AS LOW AS -5C ON SAT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT RISE ABOVE
50 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS ON SAT...WITH THE WARMER LOCATIONS JUST
BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL FEATURES...BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN /AND MAYBE SOME SNOW
FLAKES...BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOW/ NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IS MORE
CERTAIN JUST DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS AND N TO NW LOW LEVEL WINDS.

SUN DOES LOOK DRIER AND WARMER...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT OF LIGHT
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 290530
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE SOME REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND CYCLONIC NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY
TUE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ENDING THE PCPN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOON
AFTER 00Z TUE...BUT THE MODELS NORMALLY ARE TOO QUICK TO END THE
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TYPES OF CASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN N-CENTRAL UPPER MI MON EVENING...AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE. AFTER A
COOL MORNING...IT SHOULD BECOME A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. BY
THU. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL
DAY RAIN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND.

THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONGENSIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CYCLONGENSIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ARE THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF/GEM SOLN. STILL...IT
LOOKS LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE IT WILL BE A RAINY PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS AT LEAST A LITTLE BREEZY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE LAKE ITSELF. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO BELOW ZERO FROM ALL THE NWP. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHC
POPS IF NOTHING ELSE CLOSE TO THE LAKE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL
DRY IT OUT ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 290530
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE SOME REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND CYCLONIC NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY
TUE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ENDING THE PCPN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOON
AFTER 00Z TUE...BUT THE MODELS NORMALLY ARE TOO QUICK TO END THE
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TYPES OF CASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN N-CENTRAL UPPER MI MON EVENING...AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE. AFTER A
COOL MORNING...IT SHOULD BECOME A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. BY
THU. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL
DAY RAIN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND.

THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONGENSIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CYCLONGENSIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ARE THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF/GEM SOLN. STILL...IT
LOOKS LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE IT WILL BE A RAINY PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS AT LEAST A LITTLE BREEZY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE LAKE ITSELF. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO BELOW ZERO FROM ALL THE NWP. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHC
POPS IF NOTHING ELSE CLOSE TO THE LAKE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL
DRY IT OUT ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LIFR AT KCMX AND KIWD HAS SPREAD INTO KSAW AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX THIS AFTN AS THE NE WIND WILL BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 282345
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE SOME REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND CYCLONIC NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY
TUE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ENDING THE PCPN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOON
AFTER 00Z TUE...BUT THE MODELS NORMALLY ARE TOO QUICK TO END THE
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TYPES OF CASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN N-CENTRAL UPPER MI MON EVENING...AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE. AFTER A
COOL MORNING...IT SHOULD BECOME A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. BY
THU. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL
DAY RAIN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND.

THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONGENSIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CYCLONGENSIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ARE THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF/GEM SOLN. STILL...IT
LOOKS LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE IT WILL BE A RAINY PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS AT LEAST A LITTLE BREEZY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE LAKE ITSELF. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO BELOW ZERO FROM ALL THE NWP. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHC
POPS IF NOTHING ELSE CLOSE TO THE LAKE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL
DRY IT OUT ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 282345
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE SOME REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND CYCLONIC NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY
TUE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ENDING THE PCPN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOON
AFTER 00Z TUE...BUT THE MODELS NORMALLY ARE TOO QUICK TO END THE
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TYPES OF CASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN N-CENTRAL UPPER MI MON EVENING...AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE. AFTER A
COOL MORNING...IT SHOULD BECOME A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. BY
THU. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL
DAY RAIN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND.

THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONGENSIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CYCLONGENSIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ARE THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF/GEM SOLN. STILL...IT
LOOKS LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE IT WILL BE A RAINY PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS AT LEAST A LITTLE BREEZY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE LAKE ITSELF. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO BELOW ZERO FROM ALL THE NWP. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHC
POPS IF NOTHING ELSE CLOSE TO THE LAKE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL
DRY IT OUT ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN IN ITS WAKE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED AT KCMX LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATER MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE SOME REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND CYCLONIC NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY
TUE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ENDING THE PCPN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOON
AFTER 00Z TUE...BUT THE MODELS NORMALLY ARE TOO QUICK TO END THE
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TYPES OF CASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN N-CENTRAL UPPER MI MON EVENING...AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE. AFTER A
COOL MORNING...IT SHOULD BECOME A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. BY
THU. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL
DAY RAIN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND.

THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONGENSIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CYCLONGENSIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ARE THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF/GEM SOLN. STILL...IT
LOOKS LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE IT WILL BE A RAINY PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS AT LEAST A LITTLE BREEZY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE LAKE ITSELF. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO BELOW ZERO FROM ALL THE NWP. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHC
POPS IF NOTHING ELSE CLOSE TO THE LAKE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL
DRY IT OUT ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOOKS LIKE SOME REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
CONTINUED UPSLOPE AND CYCLONIC NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 50 PCT OF NORMAL/ BY
TUE MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ENDING THE PCPN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOON
AFTER 00Z TUE...BUT THE MODELS NORMALLY ARE TOO QUICK TO END THE
PRECIPITATION IN THESE TYPES OF CASES. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS IN N-CENTRAL UPPER MI MON EVENING...AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUE. AFTER A
COOL MORNING...IT SHOULD BECOME A PLEASANT AUTUMN DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SFC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
LATE WED INTO THU MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING THE FIRST WAVE OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. LATE WED AFTN
INTO WED NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THIS
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. BY
THU. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT AN ALL
DAY RAIN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND.

THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLONGENSIS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CYCLONGENSIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF AND
GEM ARE THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE
FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE OF AN ECMWF/GEM SOLN. STILL...IT
LOOKS LIKE SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE IT WILL BE A RAINY PERIOD WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS AT LEAST A LITTLE BREEZY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE LAKE ITSELF. BY SATURDAY...IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TO BELOW ZERO FROM ALL THE NWP. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CHC
POPS IF NOTHING ELSE CLOSE TO THE LAKE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL
DRY IT OUT ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281142
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. -SHRA/-RA WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL WITH KCMX MOSTLY LIKELY TO SEE PCPN. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AT KIWD/KSAW WILL OCCUR NEAR THE END OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281142
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. -SHRA/-RA WILL SPREAD S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL WITH KCMX MOSTLY LIKELY TO SEE PCPN. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AT KIWD/KSAW WILL OCCUR NEAR THE END OR JUST
BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
604 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
604 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY TODAY...AND QUITE LIKELY THE LAST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR...

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...STRONG RIDGE THAT WAS
EXTENDING INTO NRN ONTARIO IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SHORTWAVE TROF
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROF IS SUPPORTING
A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE ND TO JUST S OF
JAMES BAY. JUST BEHIND FRONT...TEMPS QUICKLY FALL OFF INTO THE 40S
AND 30S...GIVING AN IDEA OF THE DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS THAT
WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FOR MON. MID LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER 24 HRS AGO HAS MOVED LITTLE...NOW OVER IA.
SCT/BKN MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP RADIATION FOG A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LESS DENSE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMP PROFILE FROM YESTERDAY...
SO LARGELY UTILIZED YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS AS A BASIS FOR TODAYS MAX
TEMPS. TEMP RISE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL
CURVE TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD CHC RECORD
HIGH OF 77F FOR NWS KMQT SITE WILL FALL TODAY. SHARP COLD FRONT TO
THE N WILL DRIFT S TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE KEWEENAW LATE IN THE
AFTN. AS IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS
NICE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT.
THAT SAID...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY. WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE...LAKE
BREEZE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA THIS AFTN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. MOST HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S TONIGHT WITH PCPN REMAINING
MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTED BY
FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MON. WITH BEST OVERLAP OF FGEN AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE
PER QVECTORS PASSING JUST N AND E OF FCST AREA...HEAVIER/STEADIER
SHRA/RA SHOULD PASS N AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DECENT FORCING
STILL SUPPORTS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING SE TO THE
KEWEENAW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TO WRN AND NRN UPPER MI BY 12Z
MON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DROP S...PASSING
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
TODAY...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...DRAMATIC CHANGES WILL
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NRN ONTARIO. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU.
HOWEVER...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER ON WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THRU THE UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 280727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280524
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A MORE ACTIVE AND TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SOME OF THE 12Z RUNS
TODAY APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. THE RECENT NAM AND GEM
RUNS ARE ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUICKER PASSAGE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HAD ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS...BUT AM
NOW MORE CONVINCED OF THE FASTER SOLUTION GIVEN THE ECMWF
PERSISTENCE. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME LOOKS TO BE AROUND 00Z MONDAY
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLEARING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CWA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

ACTIVE LOW-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE JET SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. ONLY MADE
SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN THE MORNING AND
ALONG NE UPSLOPE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA....WITH TEMPS NORTHWEST
IN THE 40S AND SOUTHEST IN THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL CLEAR
THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDHING SHIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT GIVEN PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONTINUED NE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LINGER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO RID
THESE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY IS IN QUESTION. MORNING INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 2-3KFT WILL TRAP REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE
MIXING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HELP ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
EAST LONGER GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST NE FLOW FROM THE
MOISTURE POOL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INITIAL MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE MARGINAL. THEREFORE...PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET AND INCREASING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A
TOUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP THAN
THE GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF THURSDAY AND THE EAST HALF THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS FORMS A STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WHILE
THE ECMWF FORMS THE LOW CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY. EITHER WAY...THE
OVERALL PICTURE IS A SERIES OF RAW...CHILLY FALL DAYS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SUPPORT. THE
ARRIVAL OF 850 HPA TEMPS OF -3 TO -1C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AS SFC-H8 DELTA T VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 10C. THE
COOLEST WIDESPREAD TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM HIGHS IN
THE 70S THIS SATURDAY/TODAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNTIL
THIS EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SO AT THIS
POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. A
COLD FRONT BOOSTED BY THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING VEERING WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AND THIS EVENING AT SAW AND IWD. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN WITH LOWER MVFR
CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ITS IMPACT AT SAW IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A MORE ACTIVE AND TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SOME OF THE 12Z RUNS
TODAY APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. THE RECENT NAM AND GEM
RUNS ARE ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUICKER PASSAGE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HAD ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS...BUT AM
NOW MORE CONVINCED OF THE FASTER SOLUTION GIVEN THE ECMWF
PERSISTENCE. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME LOOKS TO BE AROUND 00Z MONDAY
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLEARING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CWA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

ACTIVE LOW-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE JET SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. ONLY MADE
SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN THE MORNING AND
ALONG NE UPSLOPE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA....WITH TEMPS NORTHWEST
IN THE 40S AND SOUTHEST IN THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL CLEAR
THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDHING SHIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT GIVEN PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONTINUED NE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LINGER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO RID
THESE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY IS IN QUESTION. MORNING INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 2-3KFT WILL TRAP REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE
MIXING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HELP ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
EAST LONGER GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST NE FLOW FROM THE
MOISTURE POOL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INITIAL MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE MARGINAL. THEREFORE...PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET AND INCREASING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A
TOUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP THAN
THE GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF THURSDAY AND THE EAST HALF THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS FORMS A STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WHILE
THE ECMWF FORMS THE LOW CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY. EITHER WAY...THE
OVERALL PICTURE IS A SERIES OF RAW...CHILLY FALL DAYS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SUPPORT. THE
ARRIVAL OF 850 HPA TEMPS OF -3 TO -1C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AS SFC-H8 DELTA T VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 10C. THE
COOLEST WIDESPREAD TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM HIGHS IN
THE 70S THIS SATURDAY/TODAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT
KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. 585-588 DECAMETER 5H HIGHS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES HAVE RESULTED IN INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. EXPECT MORE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION MAINLY WELL INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY WIND AND ASSOC MIXING SHOULD
GENERALLY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

EXPECT ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. MIXING 850 MB OF
13-14C TO SFC SHOULD AGAIN YIELD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
AROUND 70S ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHRA OVER THE NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE MODELS HINT THAT DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE BREEZE COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. MODIFIED NAM SOUNDINGS FOR 78/58 YIELD SBCAPE 200-300
J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A MORE ACTIVE AND TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH A RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT SOME OF THE 12Z RUNS
TODAY APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. THE RECENT NAM AND GEM
RUNS ARE ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH AXIS AND QUICKER PASSAGE MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HAD ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT GUIDANCE WAS TRENDING SLOWER WITH YESTERDAYS RUNS...BUT AM
NOW MORE CONVINCED OF THE FASTER SOLUTION GIVEN THE ECMWF
PERSISTENCE. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME LOOKS TO BE AROUND 00Z MONDAY
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLEARING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CWA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
MONDAY.

ACTIVE LOW-LEVEL FGEN COMBINED WITH THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT PRECIP COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
TO MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE LESSENING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS
THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF THE JET SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI. ONLY MADE
SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN THE MORNING AND
ALONG NE UPSLOPE AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BLUSTERY NE WINDS WILL
COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. HIGHS TEMPS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA....WITH TEMPS NORTHWEST
IN THE 40S AND SOUTHEST IN THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL CLEAR
THE CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDHING SHIFT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT GIVEN PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONTINUED NE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LINGER SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOW LONG IT TAKES TO RID
THESE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY IS IN QUESTION. MORNING INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 2-3KFT WILL TRAP REMAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE
MIXING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HELP ERODE
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
EAST LONGER GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOIST NE FLOW FROM THE
MOISTURE POOL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA AS AN ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW SEND A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE WESTERN CWA 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...INITIAL MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE MARGINAL. THEREFORE...PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET AND INCREASING
LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN PRECIP COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A
TOUCH SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP THAN
THE GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF THURSDAY AND THE EAST HALF THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS FORMS A STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WHILE
THE ECMWF FORMS THE LOW CLOSER TO HUDSON BAY. EITHER WAY...THE
OVERALL PICTURE IS A SERIES OF RAW...CHILLY FALL DAYS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH INCREASED LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SUPPORT. THE
ARRIVAL OF 850 HPA TEMPS OF -3 TO -1C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS AS SFC-H8 DELTA T VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 10C. THE
COOLEST WIDESPREAD TEMPS OF THE SEASON ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM HIGHS IN
THE 70S THIS SATURDAY/TODAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT
KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...AN EXTENDED NW GALE EVENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
252 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY IS ON THE WAY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. CORE OF THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WITH THE
RIDGE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WHERE ANOMALIES ARE 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM LATE SEPT AVG. WITHIN THE RIDGE...A
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER IS
GENERATING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER IA INTO SW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN THAT FEATURES QUIET/CLEAR NIGHTS...SHALLOW FOG
HAS AGAIN FORMED...MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS/LAKES/STREAMS.

WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTEDAY...
TODAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS WEATHER. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LWR 80S
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS...
SIMPLY USED YESTERDAYS OBSERVED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAYS FCST WITH A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DIURNAL TEMP RISE SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO UTILIZED YESTERDAYS DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS. SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHALLOW FOG SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE IN
GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT IT HAS APPEARED IN RECENT NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGER SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAIN ISSUE REMAINS TIMING OF FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD QUICKER FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM AND
GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND TREND FROM GFS IS MAINLY SLOWER...THOUGH
00Z RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH FRONT BUT KEEPS MOST RAIN OUT OF CWA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA IS TIED TO
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY DIGS INTO BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER JET/MORE AMPLFIED TROUGH
WHILE GFS AND GEM-NH SHOW MORE OF THE JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND THUS A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH
IDEA IS RIGHT. MORE AMPLIED IDEA SEEMS GOOD AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA IS QUITE SHARP PER WV LOOP AND 00Z
RAOBS...BUT A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE IT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG WITH
590DAM HEIGHTS FM DAKOTAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.

CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TO FROPA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HEAD THIS WAY AS WELL. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY...LIKELY TURNING INTO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN BOOSTED BY H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. SHALLOW COOL/MOIST FLOW
UPSLOPING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONLY ADDS TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT SHARP GRADIENT BTWN WHERE THE SUB H9 FLOW
IS STIFF ONSHORE AND WHERE MIXING TO H9 AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 70 OVER THE SCNTRL. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
PROBABLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE AREA. COOL TEMPS
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS STAY
ONSHORE ALL DAY.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN IN BTWN DAY AND COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY...WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM WEST CONUS TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES
OF RAIN LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS SHAKY SO WILL NOT ALTER THE CONSENSUS POPS. INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS AT LEAST A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT
KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
252 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY IS ON THE WAY TODAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OVER MUCH
OF THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. CORE OF THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WITH THE
RIDGE IS OVER NRN ONTARIO WHERE ANOMALIES ARE 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM LATE SEPT AVG. WITHIN THE RIDGE...A
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER IS
GENERATING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER IA INTO SW MN. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN THAT FEATURES QUIET/CLEAR NIGHTS...SHALLOW FOG
HAS AGAIN FORMED...MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AND ERN UPPER MI AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS/LAKES/STREAMS.

WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIR MASS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTEDAY...
TODAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAYS WEATHER. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LWR 80S
AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION WHICH SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE SIMILAR AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS...
SIMPLY USED YESTERDAYS OBSERVED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAYS FCST WITH A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DIURNAL TEMP RISE SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAYS AS WELL...SO UTILIZED YESTERDAYS DIURNAL TEMP CURVE FOR
HOURLY TEMPS. SHALLOW FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

ANOTHER QUIET/CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS MINS DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHALLOW FOG SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE IN
GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT IT HAS APPEARED IN RECENT NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGER SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAIN ISSUE REMAINS TIMING OF FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ECMWF HAS STEADILY TRENDED TOWARD QUICKER FROPA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS OVER ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY. NAM AND
GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND TREND FROM GFS IS MAINLY SLOWER...THOUGH
00Z RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH FRONT BUT KEEPS MOST RAIN OUT OF CWA
UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA IS TIED TO
HOW MUCH JET ENERGY DIGS INTO BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO. ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER JET/MORE AMPLFIED TROUGH
WHILE GFS AND GEM-NH SHOW MORE OF THE JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND THUS A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALOFT. TOUGH TO SAY WHICH
IDEA IS RIGHT. MORE AMPLIED IDEA SEEMS GOOD AS MAIN SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA IS QUITE SHARP PER WV LOOP AND 00Z
RAOBS...BUT A MORE STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVE COULD ALSO OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE IT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG WITH
590DAM HEIGHTS FM DAKOTAS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.

CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST POINTS TO FROPA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HEAD THIS WAY AS WELL. RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY...LIKELY TURNING INTO
MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN BOOSTED BY H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC. SHALLOW COOL/MOIST FLOW
UPSLOPING INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONLY ADDS TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT SHARP GRADIENT BTWN WHERE THE SUB H9 FLOW
IS STIFF ONSHORE AND WHERE MIXING TO H9 AND OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 70 OVER THE SCNTRL. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TO
PROBABLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ADVANCES FURTHER INTO THE AREA. COOL TEMPS
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS STAY
ONSHORE ALL DAY.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER
WESTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN IN BTWN DAY AND COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY...WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. LEADING SHORTWAVE EMERGING FM WEST CONUS TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES
OF RAIN LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
COMBINES WITH MORE OF A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL CONSISTENCY
IS SHAKY SO WILL NOT ALTER THE CONSENSUS POPS. INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS AT LEAST A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INSTABILITY WORKING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP AT NIGHT AND AFFECT
KSAW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SO AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING KSAW TO DROP BLO MVFR
LATE TONIGHT. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

LIGHT WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING AS A FRONT WORKS NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-30
KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING INTO
MIDDAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.

WITH MORE MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA








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