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000
FXUS63 KMQT 272126
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP
TROF ALONG THE E COAST. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS JUST
UPSTREAM OVER NRN ONTARIO. SO...THERE IS NO PCPN OF NOTE TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MENOMINEE COUNTY...AND RECENTLY FLURRIES HAVE APPEARED ON KMQT RADAR
IMAGERY IN CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER
SRN QUEBEC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING BACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN A SUNNY DAY OVER ERN UPPER
MI...ROUGHLY E OF A MUNISING-ESCANABA LINE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW UPPER
MI DID HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLIER TODAY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THE BIG IMPACT
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
TO START THE EVENING...THE ERN FCST AREA WILL BE COLDEST TONIGHT.
LOWERED MINS TO AROUND 0F IN THAT AREA...BUT IT COULD BE 5 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THRU THE WHOLE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING SE WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY FROM LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NE IN
DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON COOLING AND PROBABLY
LEAD TO TEMPS RISING SOME OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA...THE EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING W...SW AND S OVER MUCH OF
MN AND WI SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER
LOW-LEVEL S TO SW WINDS. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME
AREAS...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20F RANGE.

ON WED....ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MANITOBA WHILE A SECOND MOVES FROM WY/CO TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE NRN WAVE...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ESE THRU THE DAY UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST TO THE N
AND WITH DRIER AIR HOLDING ON AT LOW LEVELS...THE MAIN STREAK OF
SNOW WILL REMAIN N OF HERE WED AFTN. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER THE SRN EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY CLIP THE AREA. BASED ON
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES ON FCST
SOUNDINGS...THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN FCST AREA MAY GET CLIPPED BY A
LITTLE -SN. INCLUDED ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LWR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THREE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN TWO WAVES WILL BE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
THINKING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-750MB.
THEN AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT INITIAL PRECIPITATION
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LAND AREA INITIALLY...HAVE TRENDED
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL (1-2IN).
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOUGHTON TO MANISTIQUE...HAVE AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-3.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
THOSE AREAS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO HELP KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS UNTIL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES DELTA-T VALUES TOWARDS THE LOW 20S
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS (AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE) OVER THE WEST AS THAT DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

WITH THAT COLD AIR ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY/DEFINITE VALUES
FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE ARE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FIRST...THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE IN OR JUST ABOVE THE DGZ...THINK THE
FRACTURING OF THE FLAKES FROM THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW RATIOS
LOWER (BUT BE BETTER AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES). THUS...HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOWER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TOWARDS 4KFT. THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...COLD AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. ONCE AGAIN...THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT AND KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ONE ITEM TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
THIS MAY RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 7-10KFT...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT. WHEN THAT
OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE
MID -20S) THE CLOUD WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT SMALL
FLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY (WINDS NEAR
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING). WON/T MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS
THE END OF THE WEEK LAKE EFFECT AND THE SUN-TUE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
FUTURE DUE TO THE LIKELY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE STRONGER BANDS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THIS AFTN/EVENING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS. AT KIWD/KSAW...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER
OUT AT KIWD LATE THIS EVENING. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL OVERNIGHT THAT
MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AT KSAW. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD KCMX. SO...IT APPEARS MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCMX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...AND
THEN LINGER THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT TONIGHT/WED. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK
FROM THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED EVENING TO THE LOWER
LAKES BY LATE THU EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...S WINDS WILL INCREASE
FOR A TIME WED NIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL REACH 20-30KT. BEHIND THE LOW ON THU...N TO NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN
LAKE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FOR THU AFTN AND NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF MUCH COLDER AIR/STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL
LEAD TO HVY FREEZING SPRAY THU AFTN UNTIL LATE FRI MORNING WHEN
WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES.
AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT FRI INTO SAT
MORNING...N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT LATER SAT INTO SUN
IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRES TROUGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 272013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THREE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN TWO WAVES WILL BE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
THINKING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-750MB.
THEN AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT INITIAL PRECIPITATION
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LAND AREA INITIALLY...HAVE TRENDED
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL (1-2IN).
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOUGHTON TO MANISTIQUE...HAVE AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-3.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
THOSE AREAS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO HELP KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS UNTIL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES DELTA-T VALUES TOWARDS THE LOW 20S
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS (AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE) OVER THE WEST AS THAT DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

WITH THAT COLD AIR ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY/DEFINITE VALUES
FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE ARE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FIRST...THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE IN OR JUST ABOVE THE DGZ...THINK THE
FRACTURING OF THE FLAKES FROM THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW RATIOS
LOWER (BUT BE BETTER AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES). THUS...HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOWER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TOWARDS 4KFT. THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...COLD AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. ONCE AGAIN...THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT AND KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ONE ITEM TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
THIS MAY RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 7-10KFT...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT. WHEN THAT
OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE
MID -20S) THE CLOUD WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT SMALL
FLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY (WINDS NEAR
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING). WON/T MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS
THE END OF THE WEEK LAKE EFFECT AND THE SUN-TUE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
FUTURE DUE TO THE LIKELY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE STRONGER BANDS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THIS AFTN/EVENING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS. AT KIWD/KSAW...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER
OUT AT KIWD LATE THIS EVENING. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL OVERNIGHT THAT
MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AT KSAW. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD KCMX. SO...IT APPEARS MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCMX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...AND
THEN LINGER THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 272013
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA.
THUS...EXPECT GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THREE PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERN TWO WAVES WILL BE SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE INVERTED TROUGH CROSSING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE
850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
THINKING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-750MB.
THEN AS THE 850-700MB TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THAT INITIAL PRECIPITATION
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE LAND AREA INITIALLY...HAVE TRENDED
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL (1-2IN).
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOUGHTON TO MANISTIQUE...HAVE AMOUNTS IN
THE 2-3.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
THOSE AREAS. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE THE SNOW DIMINISH...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO HELP KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS UNTIL THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASES DELTA-T VALUES TOWARDS THE LOW 20S
BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIMITED ICE CRYSTALS (AND
THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE) OVER THE WEST AS THAT DEEP MOISTURE
DEPARTS...BUT THINK IT IS TOO MARGINAL TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

WITH THAT COLD AIR ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP TO LIKELY/DEFINITE VALUES
FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE
SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE ARE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FIRST...THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE IN OR JUST ABOVE THE DGZ...THINK THE
FRACTURING OF THE FLAKES FROM THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SNOW RATIOS
LOWER (BUT BE BETTER AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES). THUS...HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS DURING THAT
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND LOWER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TOWARDS 4KFT. THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND DRAG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WITH
THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE JUST A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THE TROUGH...COLD AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. ONCE AGAIN...THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 5KFT AND KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT AMOUNTS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ONE ITEM TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
THIS MAY RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TOWARDS 7-10KFT...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT. WHEN THAT
OCCURS...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO THE
MID -20S) THE CLOUD WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE DGZ AND SUPPORT SMALL
FLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY (WINDS NEAR
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY EVENING). WON/T MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS
POINT...AS AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS
THE END OF THE WEEK LAKE EFFECT AND THE SUN-TUE LAKE EFFECT IN THE
FUTURE DUE TO THE LIKELY LOW VISIBILITIES IN THE STRONGER BANDS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THIS AFTN/EVENING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS. AT KIWD/KSAW...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER
OUT AT KIWD LATE THIS EVENING. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL OVERNIGHT THAT
MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AT KSAW. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD KCMX. SO...IT APPEARS MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCMX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...AND
THEN LINGER THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STEADY 500MB LOW OVER E
AND E CANADA. FROM TIME TO TIME IT WILL BE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S.

WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 30-
35F ON LIGHT S FLOW. A LOW OVER N HUDSON BAY  AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO MESSAGE TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF A LINE FROM MQT TO
ESC FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS. EXACT AMOUNTS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL IS USED. FOR EXAMPLE AT KSAW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUFKIT IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2IN
/00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS/. THE GFS IS SHOWING CLOSER TO 4-6IN. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS...THE 27/00Z ECMWF ALIGNS BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHILE THE CANADIAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE A
FCST OF 2-5IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY 1-2IN ALONG THE WI BORDER.  ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE UPSLOPE N CENTRAL AND E LOCATIONS BAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHIFTS TO S LOWER MI...AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
HOWEVER...INCREASED N-NNW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH A 30-40KT LLJ SET UP...EXPECT ABOVE 925MB. THIS
WILL BE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW PUSHING
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM
THE W. LOOK FOR PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP THURSDAY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...REDUCING VIS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY... EXPECT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY TO SINK ACROSS MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FRIDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 800MB AND BELOW WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
THE DGZ WILL BE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE LAYER...NO HEADLINE LES IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE EVEN THROUGH SLR VALUES CLIMB BACK TO 20-
25:1. LESS THAN FAVORABLE W-SW WINDS FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD PUSH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY.

REST OF SATURDAY... A BRIEF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING THIS TROUGH IS IS STILL A BIT ROUGH...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DIFFER BY 6-12HRS. THE 27/00Z CANDIAN AND 26/12Z
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW
SIDE. EITHER WAY IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 10-17F.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONGER AND COLD 30.9 INCH/1040-1050MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30.6IN/1033-1037MB AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE N
PLAINS/ UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.   HIGHS MONDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS IS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE HIGH IN PLACE...WHILE THE 26/12Z
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. MORE ON THIS WHEN WE START FCSTING FOR
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THIS AFTN/EVENING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS. AT KIWD/KSAW...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER
OUT AT KIWD LATE THIS EVENING. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL OVERNIGHT THAT
MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AT KSAW. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD KCMX. SO...IT APPEARS MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCMX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...AND
THEN LINGER THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STEADY 500MB LOW OVER E
AND E CANADA. FROM TIME TO TIME IT WILL BE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S.

WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 30-
35F ON LIGHT S FLOW. A LOW OVER N HUDSON BAY  AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO MESSAGE TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF A LINE FROM MQT TO
ESC FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS. EXACT AMOUNTS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL IS USED. FOR EXAMPLE AT KSAW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUFKIT IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2IN
/00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS/. THE GFS IS SHOWING CLOSER TO 4-6IN. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS...THE 27/00Z ECMWF ALIGNS BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHILE THE CANADIAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE A
FCST OF 2-5IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY 1-2IN ALONG THE WI BORDER.  ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE UPSLOPE N CENTRAL AND E LOCATIONS BAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHIFTS TO S LOWER MI...AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
HOWEVER...INCREASED N-NNW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH A 30-40KT LLJ SET UP...EXPECT ABOVE 925MB. THIS
WILL BE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW PUSHING
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM
THE W. LOOK FOR PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP THURSDAY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...REDUCING VIS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY... EXPECT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY TO SINK ACROSS MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FRIDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 800MB AND BELOW WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
THE DGZ WILL BE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE LAYER...NO HEADLINE LES IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE EVEN THROUGH SLR VALUES CLIMB BACK TO 20-
25:1. LESS THAN FAVORABLE W-SW WINDS FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD PUSH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY.

REST OF SATURDAY... A BRIEF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING THIS TROUGH IS IS STILL A BIT ROUGH...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DIFFER BY 6-12HRS. THE 27/00Z CANDIAN AND 26/12Z
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW
SIDE. EITHER WAY IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 10-17F.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONGER AND COLD 30.9 INCH/1040-1050MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30.6IN/1033-1037MB AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE N
PLAINS/ UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.   HIGHS MONDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS IS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE HIGH IN PLACE...WHILE THE 26/12Z
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. MORE ON THIS WHEN WE START FCSTING FOR
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT OVER MUCH OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THIS AFTN/EVENING UNDER LIGHT WIND FIELDS. AT KIWD/KSAW...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSLOPE WIND SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO SCATTER
OUT AT KIWD LATE THIS EVENING. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL OVERNIGHT THAT
MVFR CIGS SCATTER OUT AT KSAW. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF LOWER CLOUDS TOWARD KCMX. SO...IT APPEARS MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KCMX IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...AND
THEN LINGER THRU THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THRU WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271126
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
626 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STEADY 500MB LOW OVER E
AND E CANADA. FROM TIME TO TIME IT WILL BE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S.

WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 30-
35F ON LIGHT S FLOW. A LOW OVER N HUDSON BAY  AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO MESSAGE TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF A LINE FROM MQT TO
ESC FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS. EXACT AMOUNTS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL IS USED. FOR EXAMPLE AT KSAW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUFKIT IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2IN
/00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS/. THE GFS IS SHOWING CLOSER TO 4-6IN. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS...THE 27/00Z ECMWF ALIGNS BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHILE THE CANADIAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE A
FCST OF 2-5IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY 1-2IN ALONG THE WI BORDER.  ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE UPSLOPE N CENTRAL AND E LOCATIONS BAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHIFTS TO S LOWER MI...AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
HOWEVER...INCREASED N-NNW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH A 30-40KT LLJ SET UP...EXPECT ABOVE 925MB. THIS
WILL BE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW PUSHING
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM
THE W. LOOK FOR PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP THURSDAY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...REDUCING VIS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY... EXPECT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY TO SINK ACROSS MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FRIDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 800MB AND BELOW WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
THE DGZ WILL BE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE LAYER...NO HEADLINE LES IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE EVEN THROUGH SLR VALUES CLIMB BACK TO 20-
25:1. LESS THAN FAVORABLE W-SW WINDS FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD PUSH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY.

REST OF SATURDAY... A BRIEF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING THIS TROUGH IS IS STILL A BIT ROUGH...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DIFFER BY 6-12HRS. THE 27/00Z CANDIAN AND 26/12Z
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW
SIDE. EITHER WAY IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 10-17F.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONGER AND COLD 30.9 INCH/1040-1050MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30.6IN/1033-1037MB AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE N
PLAINS/ UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.   HIGHS MONDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS IS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE HIGH IN PLACE...WHILE THE 26/12Z
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. MORE ON THIS WHEN WE START FCSTING FOR
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

DRY AIR SLIPPING SLOWLY TO THE W IN THE LGT ESE FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK
OF HI PRES IN SE CANADA WL BRING PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO CMX AND
SAW INTO THIS AFTN...WHEN A WSHFT TO THE SW ACCOMPANYING THE RDG MOVING
TO THE S WL DRAW MVFR CIGS PRESENT NEAR THE WI BORDER BACK OVHD. AS THE
SW WIND EVENTUALLY TAPS DRIER AIR TNGT AND THE INVRN BASE SINKS
FURTHER...THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. FOR
IWD...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DOMINATE THRU THE DAY UNTIL LATE...WHEN LOWERING
INVRN BASE AND STRENGTHENING SW DOWNSLOPE WIND THAT WL ALSO TAP SOME
DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 271126
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
626 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STEADY 500MB LOW OVER E
AND E CANADA. FROM TIME TO TIME IT WILL BE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S.

WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 30-
35F ON LIGHT S FLOW. A LOW OVER N HUDSON BAY  AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO MESSAGE TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF A LINE FROM MQT TO
ESC FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS. EXACT AMOUNTS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL IS USED. FOR EXAMPLE AT KSAW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUFKIT IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2IN
/00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS/. THE GFS IS SHOWING CLOSER TO 4-6IN. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS...THE 27/00Z ECMWF ALIGNS BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHILE THE CANADIAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE A
FCST OF 2-5IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY 1-2IN ALONG THE WI BORDER.  ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE UPSLOPE N CENTRAL AND E LOCATIONS BAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHIFTS TO S LOWER MI...AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
HOWEVER...INCREASED N-NNW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH A 30-40KT LLJ SET UP...EXPECT ABOVE 925MB. THIS
WILL BE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW PUSHING
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM
THE W. LOOK FOR PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP THURSDAY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...REDUCING VIS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY... EXPECT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY TO SINK ACROSS MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FRIDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 800MB AND BELOW WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
THE DGZ WILL BE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE LAYER...NO HEADLINE LES IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE EVEN THROUGH SLR VALUES CLIMB BACK TO 20-
25:1. LESS THAN FAVORABLE W-SW WINDS FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD PUSH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY.

REST OF SATURDAY... A BRIEF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING THIS TROUGH IS IS STILL A BIT ROUGH...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DIFFER BY 6-12HRS. THE 27/00Z CANDIAN AND 26/12Z
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW
SIDE. EITHER WAY IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 10-17F.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONGER AND COLD 30.9 INCH/1040-1050MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30.6IN/1033-1037MB AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE N
PLAINS/ UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.   HIGHS MONDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS IS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE HIGH IN PLACE...WHILE THE 26/12Z
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. MORE ON THIS WHEN WE START FCSTING FOR
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

DRY AIR SLIPPING SLOWLY TO THE W IN THE LGT ESE FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK
OF HI PRES IN SE CANADA WL BRING PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO CMX AND
SAW INTO THIS AFTN...WHEN A WSHFT TO THE SW ACCOMPANYING THE RDG MOVING
TO THE S WL DRAW MVFR CIGS PRESENT NEAR THE WI BORDER BACK OVHD. AS THE
SW WIND EVENTUALLY TAPS DRIER AIR TNGT AND THE INVRN BASE SINKS
FURTHER...THE LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. FOR
IWD...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DOMINATE THRU THE DAY UNTIL LATE...WHEN LOWERING
INVRN BASE AND STRENGTHENING SW DOWNSLOPE WIND THAT WL ALSO TAP SOME
DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STEADY 500MB LOW OVER E
AND E CANADA. FROM TIME TO TIME IT WILL BE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S.

WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 30-
35F ON LIGHT S FLOW. A LOW OVER N HUDSON BAY  AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO MESSAGE TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF A LINE FROM MQT TO
ESC FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS. EXACT AMOUNTS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL IS USED. FOR EXAMPLE AT KSAW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUFKIT IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2IN
/00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS/. THE GFS IS SHOWING CLOSER TO 4-6IN. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS...THE 27/00Z ECMWF ALIGNS BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHILE THE CANADIAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE A
FCST OF 2-5IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY 1-2IN ALONG THE WI BORDER.  ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE UPSLOPE N CENTRAL AND E LOCATIONS BAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHIFTS TO S LOWER MI...AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
HOWEVER...INCREASED N-NNW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH A 30-40KT LLJ SET UP...EXPECT ABOVE 925MB. THIS
WILL BE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW PUSHING
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM
THE W. LOOK FOR PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP THURSDAY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...REDUCING VIS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY... EXPECT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY TO SINK ACROSS MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FRIDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 800MB AND BELOW WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
THE DGZ WILL BE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE LAYER...NO HEADLINE LES IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE EVEN THROUGH SLR VALUES CLIMB BACK TO 20-
25:1. LESS THAN FAVORABLE W-SW WINDS FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD PUSH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY.

REST OF SATURDAY... A BRIEF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING THIS TROUGH IS IS STILL A BIT ROUGH...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DIFFER BY 6-12HRS. THE 27/00Z CANDIAN AND 26/12Z
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW
SIDE. EITHER WAY IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 10-17F.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONGER AND COLD 30.9 INCH/1040-1050MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30.6IN/1033-1037MB AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE N
PLAINS/ UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.   HIGHS MONDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS IS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE HIGH IN PLACE...WHILE THE 26/12Z
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. MORE ON THIS WHEN WE START FCSTING FOR
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES AT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGHER END MVFR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD TUE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 271002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE STEADY 500MB LOW OVER E
AND E CANADA. FROM TIME TO TIME IT WILL BE EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE E HALF OF THE U.S.

WARMEST DAY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 30-
35F ON LIGHT S FLOW. A LOW OVER N HUDSON BAY  AND AN ADDITIONAL LOW
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HWO MESSAGE TO
INCLUDE MAINLY THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF A LINE FROM MQT TO
ESC FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS. EXACT AMOUNTS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL IS USED. FOR EXAMPLE AT KSAW
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUFKIT IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2IN
/00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS/. THE GFS IS SHOWING CLOSER TO 4-6IN. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE PRECIP FIELDS...THE 27/00Z ECMWF ALIGNS BETTER WITH
THE NAM WHILE THE CANADIAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. WILL CONTINUE A
FCST OF 2-5IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM WED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
ONLY 1-2IN ALONG THE WI BORDER.  ONLY LIMITED SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE UPSLOPE N CENTRAL AND E LOCATIONS BAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHIFTS TO S LOWER MI...AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.
HOWEVER...INCREASED N-NNW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH A 30-40KT LLJ SET UP...EXPECT ABOVE 925MB. THIS
WILL BE AS UPPER MI BECOMES STUCK BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW PUSHING
TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM
THE W. LOOK FOR PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP THURSDAY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR...REDUCING VIS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY... EXPECT THE HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OVER
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY TO SINK ACROSS MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FRIDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 800MB AND BELOW WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
THE DGZ WILL BE WITHIN THIS MOISTURE LAYER...NO HEADLINE LES IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE EVEN THROUGH SLR VALUES CLIMB BACK TO 20-
25:1. LESS THAN FAVORABLE W-SW WINDS FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD PUSH MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE DRY WEATHER WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY.

REST OF SATURDAY... A BRIEF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY...BEFORE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING THIS TROUGH IS IS STILL A BIT ROUGH...AS THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DIFFER BY 6-12HRS. THE 27/00Z CANDIAN AND 26/12Z
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSISTANT...WHILE THE 27/00Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW
SIDE. EITHER WAY IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT 10-17F.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... STRONGER AND COLD 30.9 INCH/1040-1050MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 30.6IN/1033-1037MB AS IT SETTLES ACROSS THE N
PLAINS/ UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.   HIGHS MONDAY MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS IS PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE HIGH IN PLACE...WHILE THE 26/12Z
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. MORE ON THIS WHEN WE START FCSTING FOR
MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES AT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGHER END MVFR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD TUE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270909
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES AT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGHER END MVFR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD TUE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 270909
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND DEEP TROF
OVER THE E SUPPORTING INTENSE WINTER STORM THAT IS IMPACTING NEW
ENGLAND. SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD WITHIN THIS NW FLOW/DEEPER CLDS THAT
CAUSED PERIOD OF SN LAST EVNG ARE NOW SE OF THE AREA...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN OVER THE CENTRAL CWA IS DIMINISHING WITH THE APRCH OF
SHRTWV RDG AXIS/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND DRIER MID LVL AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS. THESE RAOBS SHOW SOME LLVL MSTR BLO
INVRN...SO PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN/NW ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP ONLY -5C AT INL...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT LES. COLDER AND DRIER LLVL AIR
IS STILL PRESENT TOWARD THE E AND ARCTIC HI PRES IN QUEBEC...WITH
MOCLR SKIES REPORTED EARLY THIS MRNG AT NEWBERRY AND THE SAULT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TODAY/TNGT WL BE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.

TODAY...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG SHRTWV RDG. SO AFTER ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN
ENDS EARLY THIS MRNG...THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SFC RDG AXIS
EXTENDING WSW FM THE HI CENTER IN QUEBEC SHIFTS OVER THE CWA.
DESPITE THE MID LVL DRYING...LINGERING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO
LOWERING/STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MOCLDY SKIES...IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM OBS. ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE
THE ERN CWA...WHERE LIGHT E WIND WL MAINTAIN THE LLVL DRY AIR AND
ALLOW FOR MOSUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME CLRG IS NEAR
LK SUP OVER THE NW CWA WHERE THE LLVL SW FLOW ON THE NRN FLANK OF
THE SFC RDG AXIS WL DOWNSLOPE AND RESULT IN LOWERING THE INVRN BASE
FURTHER. GOING FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S...COLDEST OVER THE
E AND WARMEST OVER THE W...LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TNGT...A SHRTWV IS FCST TO TRACK THRU FAR NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL FORCE THIS DISTURBANCE TO PASS TOO FAR
TO THE N TO BRING PCPN TO ALL BUT FAR NRN LK SUP LATE...AN INCRSG
LLVL ACYC SW FLOW BTWN THE SFC RDG AXIS SLIDING OVER LOWER MI AND
FALLING MSLP IN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHRTWV WL ADVECT
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS DRYING PLUS MORE LLVL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING ACYC FLOW WL LIKELY BREAK UP THE
LO CLDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER NW NEAR LK SUP WHERE
SW WINDS DOWNSLOPE. OVER THE E...THE SW FLOW OFF LK MI MIGHT DRAW
MORE LO CLDS INTO THAT AREA. DESPITE ANY CLRG OF THE LOWER CLDS...
STRONGER WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE N WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT
THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE E...WHERE TEMPS WL FALL OFF QUICKLY IN
THE EVNG BEFORE THE WINDS HAVE A CHC TO PICK UP A BIT OR ANY
CLDS ROLL IN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES AT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGHER END MVFR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD TUE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXPECT S TO SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS TO DOMINATE THRU WED AS A HI PRES
RIDGE OVER UPPER MI TODAY SINKS SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A HI PRES RIDGE ORIENTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. LO PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THEN TO GALE FORCE LATE THU AND
THU NIGHT. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRAW MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH
OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO FRI...WHEN WINDS/WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF CANADIAN HI PRES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT MAY SWING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES AT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGHER END MVFR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD TUE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ALL TAF SITES AT IFR TO LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO
HIGHER END MVFR LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD TUE EVENING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 270101
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
LINGERING MOISTURE ALLOWS CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF -SN TO KCMX AND KSAW DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR THIS
EVENING. IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO
TUE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO HIGHER END MVFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 270101
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
LINGERING MOISTURE ALLOWS CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF -SN TO KCMX AND KSAW DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR THIS
EVENING. IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KCMX AND KSAW INTO
TUE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO HIGHER END MVFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES TUE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 262137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 262137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WILL BE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...BUT IT WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD...WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA...WHILE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN CWA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
IN THAT AREA...BUT OVER THE EAST...CLEARING IN THE EVENING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. DID TREND TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING GEM MODELS OVER
THE EAST IN THOSE CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATIONS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY (FROM A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS) AND THREE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY (TIED
TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA FROM MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE 850-700MB TROUGH. SHOULD SEE
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST. COLDER AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT
DID FACTOR IN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT LACK
OF COLD AIR...THE CLOUD THERMAL PROFILE IS ON THE EDGE FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. AT THIS POINT...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AND LEFT OUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE COLD AIR FINALLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
TO OCCUR IN THOSE SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 4-5KFT. THUS...THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT
AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ.
WINDS WILL BACK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR
(MID -20S 850MB TEMPS) INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT POPS BEHIND THAT TROUGH IN THE NW WIND
SNOW BELTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR...EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GOOD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 262135
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 261749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.

SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 261749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.

SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 261137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.

SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SOME -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LO MOVING FM NRN MN SSE INTO
WI TNGT WL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. STEADIER SN WL
FALL AT IWD THIS MRNG...REDUCING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE UNTIL THE
SN SHIFTS AWAY THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS REBOUND TO MVFR. AS THE AREA
OF SN DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HI PRES IN SE CANADA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY
LATE THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE STEADIER SN WL EXIT THE AREA
TNGT...LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL RESULT IN LO END MVFR/HI IFR
CONDITIONS. THE LOCATION MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS WL BE SAW
WITH AN UPSLOPE SE WIND OFF LK MI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 261137
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.

SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SOME -SN ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LO MOVING FM NRN MN SSE INTO
WI TNGT WL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. STEADIER SN WL
FALL AT IWD THIS MRNG...REDUCING VSBY INTO THE IFR RANGE UNTIL THE
SN SHIFTS AWAY THIS AFTN AND CONDITIONS REBOUND TO MVFR. AS THE AREA
OF SN DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E INTO FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING HI PRES IN SE CANADA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT CMX AND SAW TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY
LATE THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THE STEADIER SN WL EXIT THE AREA
TNGT...LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL RESULT IN LO END MVFR/HI IFR
CONDITIONS. THE LOCATION MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS WL BE SAW
WITH AN UPSLOPE SE WIND OFF LK MI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 260916
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.

SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING
IN AT KIWD JUST AFT 12Z...AT KCMX LATE MON MORNING AND THEN AT KSAW
EARLY MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO AFFECT KIWD FROM MON MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR VBSYS WILL SPREAD INTO KCMX AND
KSAW LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE
NW AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE U.P. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY IS
EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE MONDAY AS BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SNOW TAPERS
OFF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 260916
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA BTWN A HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W AND A DEEP
TROF OVER THE E. THERE ARE 2 SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW...THE FIRST IS DIGGING SEWD INTO NW MN WHILE ANOTHER IS MOVING
SEWD THRU NRN MANITOBA/FAR NW ONTARIO. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS 998MB LO
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA IS THE SFC REFLECTION OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
UPR MI IS UNDER THE SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND SLOWLY RETREATING
ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THE PRES GRADIENT IS
MUCH TIGHTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LO...AND SOME LIGHT SN IS NOTED
ON THE SFC OBS/RADAR COMPOSITES MOVING THRU NRN MN. ALTHOUGH NEARBY
RAOBS SHOW SOME MID LVL MSTR WITH 00Z H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY
2C AND 4C AT YPL AND INL RESPECTIVELY...THE RAOBS ALSO INDICATE SOME
LLVL DRY AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 00Z H85 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 26C AT MPX...22C AT GRB AND EVEN 13C AT INL/10C AT
YPL CLOSER TO THE SFC LO. SO THE OBSVD SN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
NOT THAT GREAT DESPITE SOME FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON
THE 290K SFC /ABOUT H7/.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2 SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE. SINCE THERE ARE 2
DISTURBANCES/SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP LYR FORCING...THE INITIAL SHRTWV
IS TENDING TO TRACK FARTHER W DUE TO THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND
LARGER SCALE MSTR INFLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT SN
AMOUNTS TO BE SUB ADVY.

SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO NW MN IS PROGGED TO DIG SSEWD THIS MRNG...
WITH AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
290K SFC IMPACTING MAINLY JUST THE WRN CWA THIS MRNG. THE SECOND
SHRTWV WL REACH FAR NW LK SUP LATE THIS AFTN...WITH AREA OF
DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC BUT WEAKER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INFLUENCING
MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE FADING OVERNGT WITH APRCH OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG AXIS AND DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC. WHILE THE
EXPECTED FORCING MAY JUSTIFY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING...LIMITED MSTR INFLOW WL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR.
IN FACT THE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE W THIS
MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN IS FCST TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENT. SO
DESPITE A FAVORABLE DEPTH/LOCATION OF THE DGZ CENTERED ARND 10K
FT...EXPECT SN TOTALS NOT MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES...
HEAVIEST OVER THE W HALF BECAUSE THESE AREAS WL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH
SHRTWVS. SINCE SLOWLY BACKING LLVL FLOW WL ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN FEED
OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR INTO THE E...FCST LOWER POPS/SN AMOUNTS IN THAT
AREA. IN FACT...THE FAR E MAY SEE LITTLE SN THRU TNGT. ONE CONCERN
FOR HEAVIER SN WL BE OVER THE SCENTRAL LATER THIS AFTN/EVNG DOWWIND
OF LK MI IN THE LLVL SLY FLOW AND WHEN DEEPER MSTR/FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 2ND SHRTWV WL ARRIVE IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS /-
10 TO -12C/ SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT.
HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHARP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH BACKING LLVL SE FLOW
TURNING TO THE SSW AT H85 AND MAINTAINING A FEED OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR
MAY OFFSET THIS POTENTIAL. BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME HIER
CATEGORICAL POPS/QPF CENTERED NEAR ESCANABA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL LK ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPS TODAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 20S OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT
OVER THE E...CLOSER TO SLOWLY RETREATING HI PRES/CORE OF COLDER AIR
AND WHERE H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE NO HIER THAN -12 TO -13C.
LINGERING CLDS THRU TNGT WL GREATLY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
COLDEST TEMPS AOB 10F WL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE E.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING
IN AT KIWD JUST AFT 12Z...AT KCMX LATE MON MORNING AND THEN AT KSAW
EARLY MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO AFFECT KIWD FROM MON MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR VBSYS WILL SPREAD INTO KCMX AND
KSAW LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE
NW AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE U.P. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY IS
EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE MONDAY AS BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SNOW TAPERS
OFF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HI PRES DEPARTING TO
THE E AND A LO PRES MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LO
WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE S. THEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20
KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED AS A HI PRES RIDGE AND RATHER SLACK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE AREA. LOOK FOR STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
TO RETURN ON THU AS A LO PRES MOVES E THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF HI PRES BUILDING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...TIGHTENING THE
PRES GRADIENT AGAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND
WAVES BUILT UP BY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN OF
FREEZING SPRAY TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE CLOSER APPROACH
OF THE HI ON FRI WILL BRING A RETURN OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 260605
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING
IN AT KIWD JUST AFT 12Z...AT KCMX LATE MON MORNING AND THEN AT KSAW
EARLY MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO AFFECT KIWD FROM MON MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR VBSYS WILL SPREAD INTO KCMX AND
KSAW LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE
NW AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE U.P. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY IS
EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE MONDAY AS BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SNOW TAPERS
OFF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 260605
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING
IN AT KIWD JUST AFT 12Z...AT KCMX LATE MON MORNING AND THEN AT KSAW
EARLY MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO AFFECT KIWD FROM MON MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR VBSYS WILL SPREAD INTO KCMX AND
KSAW LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE
NW AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE U.P. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY IS
EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE MONDAY AS BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SNOW TAPERS
OFF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 260527
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1227 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

ORIGINALLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY...WITH NO
UPDATES SINCE THEN...

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z TUE. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS ON TUE. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WED.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUE AND SHOULD BE
DRY FOR TUE NIGHT. ON WED...POPS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ON FRI WITH
MORE UPPER TROUGHING FOR SAT WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS CLIPPER HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND STAY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING
IN AT KIWD JUST AFT 12Z...AT KCMX LATE MON MORNING AND THEN AT KSAW
EARLY MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO AFFECT KIWD FROM MON MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR VBSYS WILL SPREAD INTO KCMX AND
KSAW LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE
NW AND NCNTRL PORTION OF THE U.P. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY IS
EXPECTED AT KIWD LATE MONDAY AS BEST MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SNOW TAPERS
OFF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 260340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1040 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

ORIGINALLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY...WITH NO
UPDATES SINCE THEN...

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z TUE. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS ON TUE. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WED.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUE AND SHOULD BE
DRY FOR TUE NIGHT. ON WED...POPS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ON FRI WITH
MORE UPPER TROUGHING FOR SAT WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS CLIPPER HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND STAY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENED NE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT
KCMX/KIWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AT KSAW AS WELL BY 02Z THIS EVENING LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND SRN MANITOBA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING IN AT KIWD
LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT...KCMX TOWARDS MID MORNING WITH MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS AFFECTING KSAW BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 260340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1040 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

ORIGINALLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AROUND 4 PM SUNDAY...WITH NO
UPDATES SINCE THEN...

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z TUE. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS ON TUE. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WED.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUE AND SHOULD BE
DRY FOR TUE NIGHT. ON WED...POPS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ON FRI WITH
MORE UPPER TROUGHING FOR SAT WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS CLIPPER HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND STAY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENED NE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT
KCMX/KIWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AT KSAW AS WELL BY 02Z THIS EVENING LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND SRN MANITOBA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING IN AT KIWD
LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT...KCMX TOWARDS MID MORNING WITH MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS AFFECTING KSAW BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 260041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENED NE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT
KCMX/KIWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AT KSAW AS WELL BY 02Z THIS EVENING LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND SRN MANITOBA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING IN AT KIWD
LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT...KCMX TOWARDS MID MORNING WITH MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS AFFECTING KSAW BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 260041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENED NE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT
KCMX/KIWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AT KSAW AS WELL BY 02Z THIS EVENING LEADING
TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND SRN MANITOBA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW MOVING IN AT KIWD
LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE IFR VISIBILITIES
WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT...KCMX TOWARDS MID MORNING WITH MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS AFFECTING KSAW BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 251945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
245 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH NEAR THUNDER BAY WILL LEAD
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THEIR CONDITIONS
TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR UNTIL THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. AT
KIWD...THEY HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT SATELLITE
AND WEBCAMS INDICATE BROKEN CLOUDS JUST UP STREAM. THUS...HAVE
STUCK WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE ALSO TRENDING TO VFR.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW
MOVING IN AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN KCMX TOWARDS
MID MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON LOWERING VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR AT
KSAW DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SNOW
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 251945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
245 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS BETWEEN CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE SECOND ONE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO CLIPPERS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND IS STRETCHING A RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE HAS LED TO WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (SEEN ON KMQT VAD)...HAS DIMINISHED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FROM THIS MORNING. BUT THERE ARE
STILL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN WHAT IS LEFT OVER WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

THAT NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN) WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SECOND WAVE WILL TRACK A TOUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
DEFINITELY BEEN A SOUTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THESE WAVES OVER
THE LAST 24HRS...SO HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH THIS FORECAST.
WITH THE TRACK OF THE TWO WAVES...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS OVER THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (HIGHEST NEAR
IRONWOOD). BASED OFF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BEST 850-500MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...THINK THE BEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SHOULD SEE A MORE BROAD/LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND
GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THERE IS ONE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...875MB TEMPS
ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND -12 TO -13C AND PROVIDING DECENT DELTA-T
VALUES OVER THE LAKE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE BEING ENOUGH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING TO LIMIT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND WAVE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONCERN IN THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...SOUTH MID CLOUD...AND SOUTHWEST AT THE TOP OF THE
CLOUD)...WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. BASED OFF
THE CONSISTENCY IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...DID TREND THE POPS
UP TO LIKELY-DEFINITE VALUES OVER DELTA/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES (AND
EVEN WESTERN ALGER) TO HIGHLIGHT THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...BUT THERE COULD BE A
NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
WHERE THINGS SETUP.

CLEARING INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A QUICK FALL
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS
DEVELOP/MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN AREAS THAT CLEARED...HAVE USED
THAT AS A STARTING POINT AND WENT WITH LOWS AROUND 4-7 DEGREES BELOW
THAT. IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (20S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH NEAR THUNDER BAY WILL LEAD
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THEIR CONDITIONS
TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR UNTIL THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. AT
KIWD...THEY HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT SATELLITE
AND WEBCAMS INDICATE BROKEN CLOUDS JUST UP STREAM. THUS...HAVE
STUCK WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE ALSO TRENDING TO VFR.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW
MOVING IN AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN KCMX TOWARDS
MID MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON LOWERING VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR AT
KSAW DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SNOW
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHILE WEAKENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL LEAD
TO WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 15KTS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING A TROUGH EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 25KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 251945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
245 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z TUE. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS ON TUE. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WED.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUE AND SHOULD BE
DRY FOR TUE NIGHT. ON WED...POPS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ON FRI WITH
MORE UPPER TROUGHING FOR SAT WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS CLIPPER HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND STAY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH NEAR THUNDER BAY WILL LEAD
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THEIR CONDITIONS
TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR UNTIL THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. AT
KIWD...THEY HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT SATELLITE
AND WEBCAMS INDICATE BROKEN CLOUDS JUST UP STREAM. THUS...HAVE
STUCK WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE ALSO TRENDING TO VFR.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW
MOVING IN AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN KCMX TOWARDS
MID MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON LOWERING VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR AT
KSAW DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SNOW
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 251945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
245 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES 00Z TUE. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS ON TUE. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN ON WED.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUE AND SHOULD BE
DRY FOR TUE NIGHT. ON WED...POPS WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS CLIPPER WILL BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR ON FRI WITH
MORE UPPER TROUGHING FOR SAT WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS CLIPPER HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND STAY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH NEAR THUNDER BAY WILL LEAD
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THEIR CONDITIONS
TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR UNTIL THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. AT
KIWD...THEY HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT SATELLITE
AND WEBCAMS INDICATE BROKEN CLOUDS JUST UP STREAM. THUS...HAVE
STUCK WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE ALSO TRENDING TO VFR.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW
MOVING IN AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN KCMX TOWARDS
MID MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON LOWERING VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR AT
KSAW DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SNOW
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 251749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH NEAR THUNDER BAY WILL LEAD
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THEIR CONDITIONS
TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR UNTIL THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. AT
KIWD...THEY HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT SATELLITE
AND WEBCAMS INDICATE BROKEN CLOUDS JUST UP STREAM. THUS...HAVE
STUCK WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE ALSO TRENDING TO VFR.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW
MOVING IN AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN KCMX TOWARDS
MID MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON LOWERING VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR AT
KSAW DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SNOW
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 251749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1249 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH NEAR THUNDER BAY WILL LEAD
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
KCMX/KSAW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THEIR CONDITIONS
TO BE PRIMARILY MVFR UNTIL THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH...LEADING TO CEILINGS RISING TO VFR. AT
KIWD...THEY HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT SATELLITE
AND WEBCAMS INDICATE BROKEN CLOUDS JUST UP STREAM. THUS...HAVE
STUCK WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC MVFR CEILING TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE ALSO TRENDING TO VFR.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN SNOW
MOVING IN AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND KCMX/KSAW TOMORROW MORNING. THE
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN KCMX TOWARDS
MID MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON LOWERING VISIBILITIES BELOW MVFR AT
KSAW DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL AND EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE SNOW
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 251128
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
628 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE FLOW TO THE S OF HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO AND UNDER LO
SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES INTO THIS
AFTN. AS THE HI PRES RDG MOVES INTO UPR MI LATER TODAY...THE LO CLDS
WL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. BUT MID/HI CLDS WL
MOVE IN TNGT WITH RETURNING MSTR IN THE S FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER LO
PRES MOVING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL ARRIVE LATE AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 251128
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
628 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE FLOW TO THE S OF HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO AND UNDER LO
SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES INTO THIS
AFTN. AS THE HI PRES RDG MOVES INTO UPR MI LATER TODAY...THE LO CLDS
WL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. BUT MID/HI CLDS WL
MOVE IN TNGT WITH RETURNING MSTR IN THE S FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER LO
PRES MOVING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL ARRIVE LATE AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS TO GO
VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY AND AT KSAW TOWARD SUN EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 250852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINTING THE GREAT LKS BTWN HI AMPLITUDE RDG ALONG THE W COAST AND
A DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. SFC HI
PRES UNDER THIS NW FLOW IS BLDG SE THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH A COLD NNE
FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK ADVECTING H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -15C OVER LK SUP
EARLY THIS MRNG. THE INFUSION OF THIS VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK SUP WATERS IS RESULTING IN SOME LK EFFECT SN
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NCENTRAL UPR MI...WHERE THE LLVL FLOW IS
PRESENTING A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. DESPITE FVRBL SN
GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WITH THE DGZ WITHIN MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
LYR...HI STABILITY/DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS PER THE 00Z YPL
RAOB...WHERE THE 00Z PWAT WAS ONLY 0.05 INCH AND THE SUBSIDENCE
INVRN WAS LOCATED NEAR H9 /MQT VWP INDICATES THE INVRN BASE HERE IS
NEAR 3K FT AGL/...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW THAT IS
MINIMIZING LLVL CNVGC IS TENDING TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE LES.
OVER THE E...SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR AT NEWBERRY WITH MINIMAL
OVERWATER TRAJECTORY AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OF THE LLVL NE FLOW OFF
ONTARIO...WHERE SFC DEWPTS EARLY THIS MRNG ARE AS LO AS -20 TO -25F
TO THE N OF LK SUP. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV IS MOVING THRU WRN CANADA OVER TOP THE WRN RDG.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD NE LLVL FLOW THAT WL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTN. FOCUS FOR TNGT
SHIFTS TO LO TEMPS AND SN CHCS LATE OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE NOW TRACKING THRU WRN CANADA.

TODAY...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE OVER
FAR NE LK SUP BY 00Z MON. LLVL NE FLOW WL PERSIST THRU THIS
MRNG...BUT THEN WEAKEN AS THE HI CENTER MOVES CLOSER AND SFC RDG
AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW MOVES OVHD BY 00Z. WITH THE -15C H85
ISOTHERM OVER CENTRAL LK SUP AND THE DGZ IN THE 1-3K FT LYR
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE LYR...SOME FLUFFY LES WL PERSIST
IN THE NE SN BELTS OVER MAINLY THE NCENTRAL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ AND SUFFICIENT CHILL OF THE AIRMASS...INVRN BASE NEAR 3K FT
AGL AND ACYC NATURE OF THE H925 FLOW WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
SN ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. DURING THE AFTN WHEN THE WINDS/UPSLOPE
FORCING DIMINISH FURTHER AND THE SFC RDG AXIS BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED...THE LES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER. THE ERN
CWA SHOULD BE MOSUNNY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW/MINIMAL OVERWATER
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY AIRMASS. NEAR THE WI BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE SC OVC ARE LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF THE
SFC RDG AXIS. BUT EVEN WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT...HI TEMPS WL BE HARD
PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE TEENS PER OBSVD HI TEMPS IN ONTARIO YDAY.

TNGT...AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E AND THE SHRTWV NOW OVER
WRN CANADA DIGS THRU SCENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THE LLVL
FLOW WL TURN TO THE SSW. FCST SDNGS INDICATE ANY LINGERING LO CLDS
WL DSPT OR SHIFT OUT INTO LK SUP AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOCLR
CONDITIONS BEFORE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWV INVADE THE AREA NW TO SE. COMBINATION OF
EARLIER ARRIVING CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL TEND TO LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. BUT OVER THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE THE LATER ARRIVAL OF HI CLDS
AND STRENGTHENING FLOW OFF LK MI TENDS TO STOP THE TEMP FALL. THE
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA SN
WL REACH THE WRN CWA BY 12Z MON...SO RETAINED SOME CHC POPS THERE
LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS TO GO
VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY AND AT KSAW TOWARD SUN EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

N TO NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. AS THE HI SHIFTS TO THE E
AND A LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND MON...EXPECT
INCREASING S WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS ON MON...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KTS ON TUE
AND TUE NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LO SLIDES TO THE SE AND A TRAILING HI
PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE UPPER LAKES. LIGHT S WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING HI ON WED WILL GIVE WAY STRENGTHENING N WINDS UP TO 25-
30 KTS ON THU FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES THRU THE LOWER
LAKES. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND INCREASING WAVES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS PRECIP RESULTS
FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS ALMOST MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING...A N TO S TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
RESULT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DGZ LOWERS INTO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND
-15C TONIGHT INTO SUN. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THIS
EVENING AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
COLDER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP
IN THE N WIND SNOWBELTS EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS BY LATE EVENING. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 4KFT. THE SFC
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MON...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP BY SUN EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NE WIND SNOWBELTS...SLR
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY IN THE DGZ AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW FLAKES FROM BEING BROKEN
APART. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI AND
AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 0F E TO AROUND 10F ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS TO GO
VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY AND AT KSAW TOWARD SUN EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY
MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE TO THE S OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 250840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS PRECIP RESULTS
FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS ALMOST MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING...A N TO S TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
RESULT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DGZ LOWERS INTO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND
-15C TONIGHT INTO SUN. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THIS
EVENING AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
COLDER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP
IN THE N WIND SNOWBELTS EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS BY LATE EVENING. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 4KFT. THE SFC
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MON...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP BY SUN EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NE WIND SNOWBELTS...SLR
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY IN THE DGZ AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW FLAKES FROM BEING BROKEN
APART. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI AND
AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 0F E TO AROUND 10F ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A
500MB TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH OF THE EAST HALF
OF THE U.S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. BY 00Z THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO -4 TO -1C
/WARMEST OFF THE 24/12Z ECMWF/. SFC TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR FREEZING
WILL BE THE RESULT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM SPELL WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS COLDER AIR SET UP OVER N CENTRAL CANADA SHIFTS SINKS ACROSS
HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY...AND SURGE ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE EXACT TIMING...SATURDAY OR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...IS STILL IN
QUESTION. THE 25/00Z IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO PUSH THE COLD AIR DOWN.
GIVEN THAT THIS IS OVER 150HRS OUT...WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS...WE WILL START 12Z MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT LOW KNOCKING ON THE DOOR /SET UP ACROSS SE MANITOBA THROUGH N
MN/. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE ON THE SW END OF THE LOW TRACK
ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FARTHER TO THE NE AND TRACK IT
OVER W LAKE SUPERIR BY 00Z TUESDAY. EITHER WAY THE ROUGHLY 150 MILE
DIFFERNECE IN PLACMENT OF THE LOW DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND
FIELDS...BUT BOTH INDICATE SNOW FOR WESTERN AND AT LEAST MOST OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI. THIS SW TREND IN THE BETTER FORCING OCCURRED WITH
THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM TOO...SO WE WILL SEE IF THIS
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS IN THE W ONLY.

BEHIND THE LOW A SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI FROM THE
W...AS THE NEXT LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY/WEDNESAY. EXPECT THIS LOW /EXTENDING FROM ND ALL THE WAY
THROUGH N TX AT 18Z WEDNESDAY TO PUSH ACROSS FAR S LAKE MI BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THERE IS AMAZING CONSISTANCY WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW FOR THIS 108HR FCST. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY THROUGH N LAKE SUPERIOR 00-12Z THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW...ASSISTED BY THE NEXT ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW. AT THIS POINT THE GFS IS HINTING
IN 3-5IN OF SNOW FROM 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BEFORE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS START DROPPING BELOW 5KFT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS TO GO
VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY AND AT KSAW TOWARD SUN EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY
MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE TO THE S OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250525
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS PRECIP RESULTS
FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS ALMOST MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING...A N TO S TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
RESULT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DGZ LOWERS INTO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND
-15C TONIGHT INTO SUN. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THIS
EVENING AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
COLDER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP
IN THE N WIND SNOWBELTS EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS BY LATE EVENING. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 4KFT. THE SFC
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MON...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP BY SUN EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NE WIND SNOWBELTS...SLR
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY IN THE DGZ AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW FLAKES FROM BEING BROKEN
APART. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI AND
AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 0F E TO AROUND 10F ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL 00Z MON WITH A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS BY 00Z WED WHILE A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT DID WARM UP
THINGS A BIT FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS WINDS GO TO THE SW.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST 12Z WED WITH COLD AIR POISED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THU WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE COLD AIR REALLY MOVES IN ON FRI WITH A DEEP 500
MB TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z FRI. MORE TROUGHING
THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS TO GO
VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY AND AT KSAW TOWARD SUN EVENING
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY
MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE TO THE S OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250354
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1054 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS PRECIP RESULTS
FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS ALMOST MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING...A N TO S TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
RESULT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DGZ LOWERS INTO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND
-15C TONIGHT INTO SUN. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THIS
EVENING AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
COLDER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP
IN THE N WIND SNOWBELTS EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS BY LATE EVENING. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 4KFT. THE SFC
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MON...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP BY SUN EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NE WIND SNOWBELTS...SLR
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY IN THE DGZ AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW FLAKES FROM BEING BROKEN
APART. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI AND
AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 0F E TO AROUND 10F ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL 00Z MON WITH A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS BY 00Z WED WHILE A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT DID WARM UP
THINGS A BIT FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS WINDS GO TO THE SW.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST 12Z WED WITH COLD AIR POISED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THU WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE COLD AIR REALLY MOVES IN ON FRI WITH A DEEP 500
MB TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z FRI. MORE TROUGHING
THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
AGAIN WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS
TO GO VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY
MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE TO THE S OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 250354
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1054 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS PRECIP RESULTS
FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT
THAT HAS ALMOST MOVED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BROUGHT A MIX OF
RAIN AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WITH TEMPS DROPPING...A N TO S TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL
RESULT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DGZ LOWERS INTO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO AROUND
-15C TONIGHT INTO SUN. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME NELY THIS
EVENING AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE
COLDER TEMPS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP
IN THE N WIND SNOWBELTS EARLY...TRANSITIONING TO THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS BY LATE EVENING. ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 4KFT. THE SFC
HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MON...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP BY SUN EVENING. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES IN THE NE WIND SNOWBELTS...SLR
VALUES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 1 THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY IN THE DGZ AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW FLAKES FROM BEING BROKEN
APART. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NE WIND
SNOWBELTS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI AND
AT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW.

EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM AROUND 0F E TO AROUND 10F ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN IL 00Z MON WITH A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS BY 00Z WED WHILE A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. NAM SHOWS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE
SAME THING. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA ON MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SNOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. DID NOT
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT DID WARM UP
THINGS A BIT FOR MON AND MON NIGHT AS WINDS GO TO THE SW.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST 12Z WED WITH COLD AIR POISED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THU WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE COLD AIR REALLY MOVES IN ON FRI WITH A DEEP 500
MB TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z FRI. MORE TROUGHING
THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MOIST NE LOW-LVL WIND DIRECTION OVER THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR
CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD FOR ALL TAF SITES. NE WIND DIRECTION WILL
FAVOR MAINLY KSAW FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY BUT
AGAIN WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTION FROM -SHSN. EXPECT WINDS
TO GO VARIABLE AT KIWD AND KCMX LATE SUNDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO NW ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SW QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW
DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN WEST
CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL CROSS LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY
MORNING...AND WISCONSIN ON MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR A HIGH OVER THE
N PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO SHIFT TO OH RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE TO THE S OF A TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE N PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS





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