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000
FXUS63 KMQT 062320
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.

TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LOW VISIBILITIES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES AND CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS. AS MIXING
STOPS BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID EVENING AND
WILL GO VFR AT ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 062021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.

TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 062021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTED A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM WRN WI THROUGH W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. A SHRTWV
THAT BROUGHT THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON WAS LIFTING QUICKLY NE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV FROM SW WI WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
UPSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE EARLIER ARRIVAL
OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION NO TSRA WERE
OBSERVED. WITH THE LIGHTNING REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH NEAR SRN LAKE
MI.

SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL UPPER MI THROUGH 00Z AND OVER THE ERN CWA
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST. WITH MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG REMAINING OVER WI...MENTIONED ONLY
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA WITH
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTH NEAR MNM AS
TEMP/DEWPOINT HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 80/70 NEAR AROUND GRB. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY LATE EVENING AS
QVECTOR FORCING REMAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH ONSHORE/UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW.
ANY REMAINING PCPN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING WITH INCREASINGLY COLD/DRY ADVECTION.

TUE...HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH NNW ONSHORE FLOW...TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60F WHILE LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KT IS
EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY
LINGER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION...WILL BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 061855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 061855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF A RIDGE BUILD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES OF 0.3 TO 0.5 IN FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT AN INCREASING SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARIES CLOSER TO THE SHORES FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO...AND BRUSH UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL MITIGATE CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED...LIMITED FORCING AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD. TWO TROUGHS ORIGINATING FROM SW AND
NW STATES WILL MERGE AND ATTEMPT TO ROUND/DIG INTO THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ABOVE
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST
SHEAR SUGGESTS THATS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
THIS FAR NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER MI
AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH ALL BETS ARE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 061748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 061748
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
148 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS AT OR DROPPING TO LIFR AT IWD/CMX. WIND
SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL
OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE AND AT SAW TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
WILL ALL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO LIFR TODAY...BEGINNING DURING
THE MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. AT
KSAW...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AS MDT TO
AT TIMES HVY SHRA ARRIVE. COULD BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. WIND SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT. COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 061138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
WILL ALL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO LIFR TODAY...BEGINNING DURING
THE MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. AT
KSAW...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AS MDT TO
AT TIMES HVY SHRA ARRIVE. COULD BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. WIND SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT. COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
WILL ALL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO LIFR TODAY...BEGINNING DURING
THE MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. AT
KSAW...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AS MDT TO
AT TIMES HVY SHRA ARRIVE. COULD BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. WIND SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT. COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 061138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY...SHRA AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
WILL ALL SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO LIFR TODAY...BEGINNING DURING
THE MORNING AT KIWD/KCMX AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. AT
KSAW...INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR THIS AFTN AS MDT TO
AT TIMES HVY SHRA ARRIVE. COULD BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. WIND SHIFT TO THE N LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL THEN DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AT KSAW. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL OCCUR W TO E TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
ARRIVE BEHIND COLD FRONT. COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX
LATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW OVER FAR
NE MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. TAIL OF SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO AIDED SHRA/SCT TSRA THAT SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE SHRA HAVE JUST RECENTLY STARTED TO DIMINISH QUITE
DRAMATICALLY...A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN SD/ERN NEBRASKA/NW
IA/SRN MN INTO NW WI IS GENERALLY HOLDING TOGETHER...AIDED BY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS MUCAPE UP TO 1000J/KG NOSING INTO SRN MN. TO THE W...A
VIGOROUS LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY MOVING E ALONG THE MT/SRN
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT RUNS FROM HUDSON BAY TO
NEAR DULUTH AND THRU FAR NW IA.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT SHOULD HELP DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE
ON COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS E TODAY. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS
GUIDANCE...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A LESS WELL-DEFINED
WAVE. THIS WEAKER WAVE WILL AFFECT WINDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FCST. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH IS CURRENTLY AIMED
INTO THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF HERE IS FCST
TO SHIFT NE ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY. AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER
JET EXTENDING NE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES...
EXPECT LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...FORTUNATELY...IT
APPEARS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP TODAY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-50KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SVR
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...SEEMS POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS IS QUITE LIMITED. IF FOR SOME REASON CLOUDS THIN TO ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SVR
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE GREATLY. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS MAIN SVR RISK
WILL BE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS FROM HIGH PCPN RATE STORMS THAT
MAY PULL HIGHER WINDS NOT TOO FAR ALOFT DOWNWARD.

PCPN WILL EXIT W TO E TONIGHT. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR A TIME WITH THE N TO NW OFF THE LAKE UNTIL LOW-
LEVEL DRIER AIR MAKES INROADS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SFC LOW PRES WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO FCST REFLECTS A DOWNWARD TREND
IN WINDS. STILL...EXPECT S WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30KT OVER THE
E HALF OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF N TO NW WINDS
OF 15-25KT IS EXPECTED. OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTS TO 30KT SHOULD OCCUR. NW WINDS OF 15-25KT MAY LINGER OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM W TO E THRU TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THRU LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. WINDS MAY
INCREASE A BIT WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES TROF MOVING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO.

AS FOR FOG...WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW
TO SE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
821 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MON
MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN
INCREASES.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
821 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MON
MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN
INCREASES.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
821 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MON
MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN
INCREASES.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
821 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MON
MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN
INCREASES.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 051937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 051918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 051918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 051801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051123
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AT
KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL
APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 051123
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AT
KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL
APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051123
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AT
KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL
APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA
MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 050930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 050816
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 050816
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES UPR MICHIGAN. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS...BOTH FROM THE FRONT DIRECTLY AND ALSO DUE TO
POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER HUDSON BAY AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...TWO MAIN AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND MINNESOTA WILL BE CONNECTED BY COLD
FRONT. AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA SLIDES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
MONDAY EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WITH
SFC LOW FM MINNESOTA RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS JET STREAK
EXITS BASE OF TROUGH RESULTING IN STRONGER AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE/LIFT. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND PWATS PUSHING PAST 2.25 INCHES. H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AIMED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND SFC LOW
SLIDING ALONG THE FRONT. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL EITHER OVER
FAR WESTERN CWA OR STAY JUST TO WEST OF UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN IF THAT
DOES OCCUR...SHRA/TSRA MOVING OVER REST OF CWA THROUGH THE DAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER 13KFT. SWIFT STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN.

DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN POSITION OF FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. NAM INDICATES SFC CAPES NEARING
2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY 18Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF ONLY
SHOW UP TO 400J/KG. NAM IS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH ITS SFC LOW ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO TOO HIGH WITH SFC DWPNTS AHEAD OF LOW/FRONT
/LOW 70S INSTEAD OF GFS LED CONSENSUS OF UPR 60S/. STRONG WIND
FIELDS PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF THIS FRONT...SIMILAR FM LOW-LEVELS TO
HIGHER ALOFT DUE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS
ABOVE H95 ARE AT LEAST 50 KTS...WITH 35-45 KTS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
AND FRONT AS THEY SHIFT ACROSS. STRONGEST MIXING AND GREATEST CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS TO BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN GUSTS IS OVER EASTERN CWA
WHERE APPEARS SKIES STAY CLEAREST LONGEST ON MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUNISING TO NEWBERRY POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MSLP
WITH SFC LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS TRACKING FM KEWEENAW TO NORTHEAST LK
SUPERIOR BY 00Z WOULD SUPPORT THAT IDEA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAX
OUT AT 40-50 KTS...SO IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN MAJORITY OF
MODELS SHOW WOULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. JUST NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REALIZE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS...DAYSHIFT ON
SATURDAY AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SEEM ON RIGHT TRACK WITH POSSIBILITY
OF STRONGER POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS BROUGHT TO SFC DUE TO HEAVY
PRECIP LOADING. SEEMS THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF AT LEAST
SOME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING CAN OCCUR BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHRA/TSRA.

COLD FRONT CROSSES FAR EAST CWA MONDAY EVENING THEN SHOULD BE EAST
OF CWA BY 06Z. NO LET UP IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG FRONT
SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE EAST CWA AS WELL.
SINCE THE EAST CWA SHOULD SEE MOST HEATING ON MONDAY AND THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MUNISING-ESCANABA EASTWARD TOWARD
NEWBERRY. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS BY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP
COOLING SFC-H925 WITH TEMPS FALLING 5-8C BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS 30-40 KTS ARE WITHIN TOP PORTION OF MIXED LAYER AS COOLING
OCCURS. FOR NOW...WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG LK SUPERIOR
FM BIG BAY TO GRAND MARAIS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS SLIDES ACROSS GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH H8 AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DIPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO +4C ON TUE.
INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. LIFT AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS
SEEMS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY KIND OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MID-LATE AFTN...BUT EVEN SO...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BLO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF
MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS AND READINGS INLAND BARELY REACHING 70
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. HIGH OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS BLO
0.5 INCH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAVORING LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. TYPICAL COLD SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPR 30S...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

REST OF THE EXTENDED HINGES ON FRONT THAT STARTS OUT OVER CNTRL
CANADA AND GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY END OF THE WEEK. WPC HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT SINKS OVER THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK...THERE WOULD BE GREATER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IF THE
FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
COULD SEE NEED FOR HIGHER POPS. WARMING TREND STILL EXPECTED WITH
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND INTO THE
80S ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY TUE
THROUGH THU...HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY WITH
DWPNTS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050509
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050509
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050509
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY TODAY AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE
AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 042336
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SRLY ON SUN AND WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON AT IWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING IN FROM NW ONTARIO AND NRN MN. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE FOG WHICH ROLLED INTO ERN UPPER MI EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. THE NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOIST DEW
POINTS HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO LINGER OVER THE LAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HRS. LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE FM
WILDFIRES OVER NRN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER MID-LVL RIDGE TO
WEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
HAVE REACHED INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
SCNTRL FCST AREA (MAINLY MENOMINEE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES) OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG COULD MAYBE TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS.

SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING
FIREWORKS. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER LINGERING MARINE FOG
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS WILL PUSH OUT AWAY FROM
SHORELINE AREAS BY LATE EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH
ONSET OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN
THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP
BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES.

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 16-18C AND
POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C OVER WESTERN CWA...MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET
ACROSS THE WEST HALF...WITH PERHAPS A READING OR TWO APPROACHING 90F
FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHEST
OBS PLATFORMS GET WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE GUSTS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR
SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS
EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.

WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH IDEA THAT INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY SHOULD HELP THIN FOG BY THAT TIME. FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WRN CWA (EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN)
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OVER
EITHER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN UPPER MI DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS.

THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/TRACK/STRENGH OF THE SFC
LOW...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 999MB AS
IT TRACKS UP THE STALLED FRONT OVER WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR OR FAR WRN
UPPER MI. WHILE THE 12Z/04 NAM MADE A JUMP AWAY FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL CWA MUCH EARLIER MON...THE
PREVIOUS NAM AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP
STAYING ALONG THE STALL FRONT AND ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SSW FROM THE LOW. WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND STRONG FLOW FROM THE S/SE AHEAD OF THE
LOW...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND
GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND/OR WRN-NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG AND W OF THE STALLED FRONT. BY
TIME THE PRECIP SURGES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY AS THE LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY NE...SO PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE OVER MOST LAND AREAS. THE WRN U.P. SHOULD
SEE THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK/INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS AROUND
1.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL SFC
HEATING POTENTIAL AND ALSO SINCE THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND
THE LOW/FRONT...LIMITING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE PROJECTED MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE/CONVECTION...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY BE ABLE TO FORCE
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION. THE SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS WILL BE STIFF
OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 925MB WINDS AROUND 50KTS OVER
AND N OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL IN
THAT AREA AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
(850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C) AND WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. DO
EXPECT SLY GUSTS TO 30- 35MPH TO MAYBE 40MPH OVER ALL OF UPPER MI
AHEAD OF THE LOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...NW GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SLY WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S W TO 50S E. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S
SOUTH CENTRAL AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED...BUT BEFORE THEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP ON LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER THE RAIN...POSSIBLE INVATING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE AS SKIES
CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES FOR TUE NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO DROP UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS. THINK THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT IDEA IN LOWERING TEMPS...SO WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND. COULD SEE LOWS BELOW 40 IN SOME SPOTS.

OVERALL...SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND WED THROUGH SAT AND A LACK OF
OBVIOUS FORCING FEATURES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 041122
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AFFECTING KIWD/KSAW WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF IN
THE NEXT HR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER
LAKES ARE UNDER QUIET NW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER.
AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CALM/NEAR CALM WINDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE SPOTTY PCPN
LAST EVENING HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG. UPON CLOSE
EXAMINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FOG OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES INCLUDING FIREWORKS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT AS GOOD IT CAN BE. REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IS MARINE
FOG ON LAKE SUPERIOR...INCLUDING HOW LONG IT MAY AFFECT LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES TODAY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY COMBINED WITH HEIGHT
RISES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMNANT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH S SO THAT ANY ISOLD
CONVECTION THAT MAY FIRE ALONG IT WILL BE S OF UPPER MI THIS AFTN.
AS FOR THE FOG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...MESO HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAKE TODAY/DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION
WILL WORK TO PUSH FOG TO THE SHORELINES. WHETHER THIS FOG WILL
PERSIST THRU THE DAY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT`S DIFFICULT
TO KNOW HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY
PATCHY/AREA FOG MENTION INTO THE MID AFTN HRS E OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY ALSO PUSH INLAND FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. IF FOG DOES LINGER THRU LATE AFTN...DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL PUSH FOG OFFSHORE...SO FOG
SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARQUETTE OR MUNISING FIREWORKS. BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY AFTN...SOMEWHAT CLEANER AIR WILL
TEMPORARILY PUSH THICKER ELEVATED FORECAST FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY...SO SKY SHOULD NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF A SMOKEY APPEARANCE
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. IN FACT...OUTSIDE HERE AT THE OFFICE...THE
MOON NOW HAS A MORE NORMAL WHITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO THE
REDDISH/YELLOW LOOK EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F
INLAND.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E AND COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S THOUGH DEVELOPING S
WINDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE LWR 60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE W
WHILE PORTIONS OF THE E WILL SLIP BLO 50F CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH
PRES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME LATE TONIGHT...BUT MORE
SO SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUN WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS
CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN GALE
FORCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON
AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR SUMMERTIME...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT
THE CNTRL AND ERN PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ON ANOTHER NOTE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG MAY LINGER THRU
THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN SUN NIGHT/MON AS SHRA/TSTMS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040832
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040832
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
432 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM DAY AWAY FM LAKE MICHIGAN. H85
TEMPS TOP OUT AT LEAST AT +16C AND POSSIBLY HIGH AS +19C PER NAM
OVER WESTERN CWA. MID 80S SEEM LIKE GOOD BET...WITH A 90 DEGREE
READING WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IN OVERALL ZONAL FLOW ALONG WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN BY INCREASING H85 DWPNTS/LAYER
PWATS AND STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT OVER FAR WEST OR NORTHWEST CWA. NAM AND GEM-
NH MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE IDEA. OTHERWISE...NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET
BUT WARM AND HUMID AS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA. STEADY SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20
MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST...AND DWPNTS CLIMBING PAST 60 OVER
WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S.

SHORTWAVE OVER SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY SLIDES TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN AND
EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH
LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MORNING...PARTS OF EAST HALF OF CWA
MAY REACH AT LEAST LOWER 80S. HUMID MID-UPR 70S ELSEWHERE. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME AREAS OF
EAST HALF OF CWA SEEING GUSTS TOWARD 30 MPH. COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS QUICKER
COMPARED TO THE NAM/ECMWF AND GEM-NH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES BARELY REACHING 300J/KG PER
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH AND POSSIBLY UP TO 1000 J/KG FM THE NAM. NAM SEEMS
LIKE OUTLIER WHEN LOOKING AT REST OF THE MODELS AND SREF WHICH DOES
NOT EVEN GET MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE POST-
COLD FRONTAL QPF PATTERN WHICH POINTS TO SHRA/TSRA BEING DRIVEN MORE
BY DYNAMICS FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AS PWATS SURGE ABOVE 2 INCHES. HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FM WEST TO EAST. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. IF ANYTHING A SLOWER TREND IS EMERGING WITH FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WHICH KEEPS THE COLD FRONT MOSTLY TO WEST OF CWA AS LATE
AS MONDAY EVENING AND WOULD LIKELY KEEP HEAVIEST RAIN ONLY OVER FAR
WEST CWA AND OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR OVER REST OF CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK AS THE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRENDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO.

ADDITIONAL ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD GET QUITE BREEZY
WITH WINDS OVER 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UNLIKE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STABLE PROFILE...THESE WINDS ARE
PRESENT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DEVELOPING...SO THERE MAY BE
BETTER SHOT AT MIXING STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...AT LEAST IN GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE CENTER STAYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE FOG OVER LK SUPERIOR ADVECTED
ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING. TEMPS MUCH
COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAYBE
STAYING IN THE 50S EAST OF MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS. COULD BE
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TOWARD WI BORDER. DESPITE THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING OVERHEAD...MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY...AT LEAST FOR NOW. GFS HINTS AT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL RH...BUT
EVEN OUTPUT FM THAT MODEL WOULD SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH
SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR. PWATS DOWN BLO
0.5 INCH POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FAVORED COLD SPOTS
MAY FALL TO AROUND 40 IF NOT COOLER. LOWERED TEMPS TO START TREND.

REST OF THE WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN. WED/THU/FRI PROBABLY WILL BE
LAKE BREEZE DAYS WITH AT LEAST LOCAL COOLING. GRADUAL WARMING AT H85
WITH READINGS AT 12Z WED OF +5C RISING TO +16C BY 12Z FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS INLAND FM GREAT LAKES WELL INTO THE 70S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA THU/FRI DUE TO LAKE BREEZES AND BUILDING INSTABILITY AS
DWPNTS STAY AROUND 60 DEGREES. LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ANY SHRA/TSRA. HAND DRAWN PROGS INDICATE WEAK
FRONT MAY WORK THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF THAT OCCURS AND TIMES
OUT WITH PEAK HEATING...THEN COVERAGE FOR SHRA/TSRA THU AND/OR
FRIDAY COULD BE HIGHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 040521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CURRENTLY. THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
GIVE A BOOST TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GENERALLY DONE A GOOD
JOB IN SHOWING EXTENT OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THOSE
ALSO SHOW AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER MUCH
OF UPPER MI. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
HEATING FOR DESTABILIZATION. CLOUDS FROM MORNING PRECIP AND THICK
MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE SHIELD HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT TODAY. RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE AROUND 500-
800J/KG OVER THE WRN CWA AND AROUND 500J/KG OVER THE ERN CWA. LATEST
RAP FORECAST ALSO HAS SBCAPE INCREASING BY 200-300J/KG OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT 20-30KTS AND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL..THINK
SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AM NOT PLAYING UP SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IF FAVORABLE STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
A COUPLE HIGH-RES MODELS DID HAVE A BLIP OR TWO OF QPF
TOMORROW...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN HOW
DRY IT WILL BE. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BEGINNING THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL DOMINATE
AND ENSURE A PLEASANT EVENING FOR FIREWORKS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND TEMPS NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY NICE
DAY...AND IT MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WITH MANY
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO
+16-18C. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP TEMPS
A BIT COOLER EAST HALF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SHORELINE AREAS. A FEW
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE MID-LVLS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TOO DRY OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE FCST
AREA. MODELS INDICATES ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPES
GENERALLY 300-600 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FROPA WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO MODELS
INDICATE THE BEST DEEP SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST
INITIALLY...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IS STILL APPROACHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE
BEST SHEAR DISPLACED WEST OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT WITH STORMS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AS LAYER PWATS FCST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY
AS MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS OVER THE EAST THIRD
OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FROPA STILL TAKING PLACE THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER COOL TUESDAY IN STORE SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS DROPPING AS LOW AS +4C UNDER
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.
5H HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK WILL LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO
THU...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER AREA...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FM THIS
FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT IWD WHERE SOME
RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE EVENING. SOME FOG IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
SAW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN
THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS
WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS





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