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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251724
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY...

WV LOOP AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW AROUND 990MB IS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
CWA. CANADIAN AND NWS MQT/APX RADARS SHOW AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING
OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT BULK OF THE RAIN/COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ALOFT IS STAYING CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE...AND WILL MISS UPR
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AND BY DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA. ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AT
H9-H85 SEEMS DESTINED TO DROP ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
THIS OVERALL VERY DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT. TEMPS TODAY
IN THE 50S OVERALL...THOUGH SOME LOW 60S COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY MID-LATE
AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS...OR PERHAPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS 950-925MB COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS KICKING IN.

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONTARIO LOW WILL BE BATTLING LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IS MARGINAL THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DECENT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WITH 925MB WINDS 35-43 KTS...
STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW AS WELL AS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT
CWA. ELSEWHERE 25-30 KTS ARE IN THE MIXED LAYER. GOOD EFFICIENT
MIXING DUE TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FM KEWEENAW TO
SHORELINE OF ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY...WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG
LK SUPERIOR AND OCCUR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTN OVER
INLAND AREAS. LACK OF ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WINDS AND THE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE PROFILE LEADS TO ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP TO SEE ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ANYWHERE IN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAZARD IN
HWO/EWHO...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVY FOR LAND AREAS.
DUE TO HIGHER WAVES AT END OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR COULD
SEE MINOR BEACH EROISION AND WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN HWO.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. PUT LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 30S OVER FAR WEST CWA
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S AS EVEN WITH NO CLOUDS
AROUND...A LIGHT BUT STEADY NW WIND PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE THIS AFTN UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES NEAR JAMES
BAY TO DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WL OCCUR AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION. THE WINDS WL DIMINISH FURTHER LATER TNGT/SUN MRNG WITH
CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES FM THE PLAINS/WEAKENING GRADIENT. VFR
CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AS THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS 20 TO
30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND BEFORE
SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ250-251-265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 251427
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1027 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY...

WV LOOP AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW AROUND 990MB IS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
CWA. CANADIAN AND NWS MQT/APX RADARS SHOW AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING
OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT BULK OF THE RAIN/COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ALOFT IS STAYING CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE...AND WILL MISS UPR
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AND BY DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA. ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AT
H9-H85 SEEMS DESTINED TO DROP ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
THIS OVERALL VERY DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT. TEMPS TODAY
IN THE 50S OVERALL...THOUGH SOME LOW 60S COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY MID-LATE
AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS...OR PERHAPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS 950-925MB COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS KICKING IN.

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONTARIO LOW WILL BE BATTLING LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IS MARGINAL THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DECENT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WITH 925MB WINDS 35-43 KTS...
STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW AS WELL AS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT
CWA. ELSEWHERE 25-30 KTS ARE IN THE MIXED LAYER. GOOD EFFICIENT
MIXING DUE TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FM KEWEENAW TO
SHORELINE OF ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY...WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG
LK SUPERIOR AND OCCUR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTN OVER
INLAND AREAS. LACK OF ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WINDS AND THE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE PROFILE LEADS TO ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP TO SEE ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ANYWHERE IN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAZARD IN
HWO/EWHO...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVY FOR LAND AREAS.
DUE TO HIGHER WAVES AT END OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR COULD
SEE MINOR BEACH EROISION AND WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN HWO.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. PUT LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 30S OVER FAR WEST CWA
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S AS EVEN WITH NO CLOUDS
AROUND...A LIGHT BUT STEADY NW WIND PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY AIR SURGES OVER THE AREA. EVEN SO...BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP
AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO AND MANITOBA...COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS 3-6KFT AT MAINLY KCMX MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTN. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO LLWS UNTIL MID MORNING AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
THE WEST WIND WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CROSSWIND AT THE KSAW TERMINAL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS 20 TO
30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND BEFORE
SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ250-251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 251011
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
611 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY...

WV LOOP AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW AROUND 990MB IS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
CWA. CANADIAN AND NWS MQT/APX RADARS SHOW AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING
OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT BULK OF THE RAIN/COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ALOFT IS STAYING CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE...AND WILL MISS UPR
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AND BY DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA. ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AT
H9-H85 SEEMS DESTINED TO DROP ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
THIS OVERALL VERY DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT. TEMPS TODAY
IN THE 50S OVERALL...THOUGH SOME LOW 60S COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY MID-LATE
AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS...OR PERHAPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS 950-925MB COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS KICKING IN.

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONTARIO LOW WILL BE BATTLING LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IS MARGINAL THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DECENT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WITH 925MB WINDS 35-43 KTS...
STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW AS WELL AS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT
CWA. ELSEWHERE 25-30 KTS ARE IN THE MIXED LAYER. GOOD EFFICIENT
MIXING DUE TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FM KEWEENAW TO
SHORELINE OF ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY...WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG
LK SUPERIOR AND OCCUR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTN OVER
INLAND AREAS. LACK OF ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WINDS AND THE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE PROFILE LEADS TO ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP TO SEE ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ANYWHERE IN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAZARD IN
HWO/EWHO...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVY FOR LAND AREAS.
DUE TO HIGHER WAVES AT END OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR COULD
SEE MINOR BEACH EROISION AND WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN HWO.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. PUT LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 30S OVER FAR WEST CWA
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S AS EVEN WITH NO CLOUDS
AROUND...A LIGHT BUT STEADY NW WIND PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY AIR SURGES OVER THE AREA. EVEN SO...BASED ON SATELLITE LOOP
AND SFC OBS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO AND MANITOBA...COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS 3-6KFT AT MAINLY KCMX MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTN. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL
LEAD TO LLWS UNTIL MID MORNING AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
THE WEST WIND WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CROSSWIND AT THE KSAW TERMINAL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS 20 TO
30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND BEFORE
SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA











000
FXUS63 KMQT 250805 CCA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY...

WV LOOP AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW AROUND 990MB IS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
CWA. CANADIAN AND NWS MQT/APX RADARS SHOW AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING
OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT BULK OF THE RAIN/COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ALOFT IS STAYING CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE...AND WILL MISS UPR
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AND BY DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA. ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AT
H9-H85 SEEMS DESTINED TO DROP ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
THIS OVERALL VERY DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT. TEMPS TODAY
IN THE 50S OVERALL...THOUGH SOME LOW 60S COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY MID-LATE
AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS...OR PERHAPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS 950-925MB COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS KICKING IN.

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONTARIO LOW WILL BE BATTLING LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IS MARGINAL THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DECENT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WITH 925MB WINDS 35-43 KTS...
STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW AS WELL AS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT
CWA. ELSEWHERE 25-30 KTS ARE IN THE MIXED LAYER. GOOD EFFICIENT
MIXING DUE TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FM KEWEENAW TO
SHORELINE OF ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY...WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG
LK SUPERIOR AND OCCUR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTN OVER
INLAND AREAS. LACK OF ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WINDS AND THE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE PROFILE LEADS TO ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP TO SEE ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ANYWHERE IN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAZARD IN
HWO/EWHO...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVY FOR LAND AREAS.
DUE TO HIGHER WAVES AT END OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR COULD
SEE MINOR BEACH EROISION AND WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN HWO.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. PUT LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 30S OVER FAR WEST CWA
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S AS EVEN WITH NO CLOUDS
AROUND...A LIGHT BUT STEADY NW WIND PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WINDS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS 20 TO
30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND BEFORE
SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA












000
FXUS63 KMQT 250750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY...

WV LOOP AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW AROUND 990MB IS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
CWA. CANADIAN AND NWS MQT/APX RADARS SHOW AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING
OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT BULK OF THE RAIN/COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ALOFT IS STAYING CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE...AND WILL MISS UPR
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AND BY DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA. ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AT
H9-H85 SEEMS DESTINED TO DROP ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
THIS OVERALL VERY DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT. TEMPS TODAY
IN THE 50S OVERALL...THOUGH SOME LOW 60S COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY MID-LATE
AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS...OR PERHAPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS 950-925MB COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS KICKING IN.

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONTARIO LOW WILL BE BATTLING LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IS MARGINAL THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DECENT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WITH 925MB WINDS 35-43 KTS...
STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW AS WELL AS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT
CWA. ELSEWHERE 25-30 KTS ARE IN THE MIXED LAYER. GOOD EFFICIENT
MIXING DUE TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FM KEWEENAW TO
SHORELINE OF ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY...WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG
LK SUPERIOR AND OCCUR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTN OVER
INLAND AREAS. LACK OF ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WINDS AND THE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE PROFILE LEADS TO ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP TO SEE ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ANYWHERE IN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAZARD IN
HWO/EWHO...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVY FOR LAND AREAS.
DUE TO HIGHER WAVES AT END OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR COULD
SEE MINOR BEACH EROISION AND WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN HWO.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. PUT LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 30S OVER FAR WEST CWA
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND AND
AS LIGHT BUT STEADY NW WIND PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WINDS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS 20 TO
30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND BEFORE
SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 250722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z
SUN FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE AND 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUN NIGHT AND THIS MOVES OUT ON MON BEFORE
BOTH RETURN FOR MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
AND THEN BRING IN POPS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE WITH CHANCE POPS
PREVAILING MOSTLY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST 12Z WED.
MORE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A DEEP
TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA 12Z FRI WITH COLD
AIR OVER THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TOWARDS THE
END OF IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO DRY PERIODS SEEN. HAD TO ADD IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WED THROUGH FRI AS ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW -6C AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 6C...THAT WOULD JUST BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE CLOUDS
AND WITH TROUGHING IN THE AREA...LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ENDED UP GOING
CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT PRONE AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WINDS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 250553
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
153 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH HI PRES WL BRING DRY WX FOR SAT NGT/SUN...THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS A
PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS...THE FIRST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SECOND ON THU. EXPECT TEMPS INTO TUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COLDER AIR IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE TUE NGT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND SHRTWV...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN AT LEAST OVER THE NW HALF IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.

SAT NGT/SUN...DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG
ALF APRCHG FM THE PLAINS WL SUPPORT SFC HI PRES/AXIS OF MID LVL DRY
AIR THAT WL DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS. SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
APRCHG SFC HI PRES RDG AND SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC/FCST H925
WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS THAT MAY APRCH
ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP EARLY ON SAT EVNG. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STRONGER WINDS WL BE ABSENCE OF SGNFT H85 THERMAL
TROFFING AND ISALLOBARIC WIND/RELATIVELY CHILLY LK SUP WATER TEMPS
THAT LIMIT LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE
NGT WITH SLOW APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS/ WEAKER GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. DESPITE MOCLR SKIES ON SAT NGT... THE STEADY NW FLOW
WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUN MRNG
OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RDG AXIS IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY ARRIVE ON SUN AFTN
WITH APRCH OF WAD IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT
HI TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON.

SUN NGT/MON...AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS THRU SE CANADA INTO THE NE
CONUS AND LEAD SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE WRN
PLAINS...A VIGOROUS WAD PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SETUP IN THE WRN
LKS...SHOWN BEST ON THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H8-675/. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR...OPTED
TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...SHIFTING W-E ACRS UPR MI
AFT 06Z MON. ADDED A SCHC OF TS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAD BAND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500J/KG ROOTED AT H8-85 AS
SHOWN ON NAM/GFS FCS SDNGS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING/MID LVL
CAPPING ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHRTWV PASSAGE THRU NW
ONTARIO...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DIMINISH W-E DURING
THE DAY ON MON. BUT PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS WL LINGER N OF SFC WARM FNT
IN WI...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE OF TEMP. TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE AS FCST SDNGS SHOW HI LLVL STABILITY N OF THE WARM
FNT.

MON NGT/TUE...AS STRONGER SHRTWV DRAGS THE PLAINS TROF E INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO REDVLP IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FNT. THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS  WL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL WAD RAIN BAND.

TUE/WED...SHARP CYC WNW FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR IN TANDEM WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -5C BY 12Z WED LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR JAMES BAY WL SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPING LK ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT WL MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF BY LATE TUE NGT. THIS PCPN WL DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF H5 RDG
AXIS/SFC HI PRES RDG ON WED. A GUSTY WNW WIND WL ALSO DEVELOP ON TUE
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF LO MOVING TO THE NE BUT
THEN SUBSIDE ON WED WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI.

THU/FRI...EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG SHRTWV WL BE DIGGING
SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS BUT DIFFER SGNFTLY IN THE DETAILS...EVEN
WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE WL PASS TO THE S OR N OF UPR MI. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS
WELL...SO WL RELY ON A CONSENSUS APRCH FOR NOW. THE MODELS WHICH
SHOW A FARTHER S TRACK...NOTABLY THE 00Z ECMWF...INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SGNFT ACCUMULATING SN. THE 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS FCST AND SHOWS THE STRONGER SHRTWV PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR MI. BUT H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -10C WL SUPPORT SOME
LES EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW. WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN GOOD MIXING...WINDS TODAY WILL
BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 242354
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
754 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH HI PRES WL BRING DRY WX FOR SAT NGT/SUN...THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS A
PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS...THE FIRST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SECOND ON THU. EXPECT TEMPS INTO TUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COLDER AIR IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE TUE NGT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND SHRTWV...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN AT LEAST OVER THE NW HALF IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.

SAT NGT/SUN...DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG
ALF APRCHG FM THE PLAINS WL SUPPORT SFC HI PRES/AXIS OF MID LVL DRY
AIR THAT WL DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS. SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
APRCHG SFC HI PRES RDG AND SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC/FCST H925
WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS THAT MAY APRCH
ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP EARLY ON SAT EVNG. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STRONGER WINDS WL BE ABSENCE OF SGNFT H85 THERMAL
TROFFING AND ISALLOBARIC WIND/RELATIVELY CHILLY LK SUP WATER TEMPS
THAT LIMIT LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE
NGT WITH SLOW APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS/ WEAKER GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. DESPITE MOCLR SKIES ON SAT NGT... THE STEADY NW FLOW
WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUN MRNG
OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RDG AXIS IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY ARRIVE ON SUN AFTN
WITH APRCH OF WAD IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT
HI TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON.

SUN NGT/MON...AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS THRU SE CANADA INTO THE NE
CONUS AND LEAD SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE WRN
PLAINS...A VIGOROUS WAD PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SETUP IN THE WRN
LKS...SHOWN BEST ON THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H8-675/. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR...OPTED
TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...SHIFTING W-E ACRS UPR MI
AFT 06Z MON. ADDED A SCHC OF TS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAD BAND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500J/KG ROOTED AT H8-85 AS
SHOWN ON NAM/GFS FCS SDNGS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING/MID LVL
CAPPING ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHRTWV PASSAGE THRU NW
ONTARIO...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DIMINISH W-E DURING
THE DAY ON MON. BUT PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS WL LINGER N OF SFC WARM FNT
IN WI...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE OF TEMP. TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE AS FCST SDNGS SHOW HI LLVL STABILITY N OF THE WARM
FNT.

MON NGT/TUE...AS STRONGER SHRTWV DRAGS THE PLAINS TROF E INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO REDVLP IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FNT. THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS  WL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL WAD RAIN BAND.

TUE/WED...SHARP CYC WNW FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR IN TANDEM WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -5C BY 12Z WED LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR JAMES BAY WL SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPING LK ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT WL MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF BY LATE TUE NGT. THIS PCPN WL DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF H5 RDG
AXIS/SFC HI PRES RDG ON WED. A GUSTY WNW WIND WL ALSO DEVELOP ON TUE
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF LO MOVING TO THE NE BUT
THEN SUBSIDE ON WED WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI.

THU/FRI...EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG SHRTWV WL BE DIGGING
SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS BUT DIFFER SGNFTLY IN THE DETAILS...EVEN
WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE WL PASS TO THE S OR N OF UPR MI. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS
WELL...SO WL RELY ON A CONSENSUS APRCH FOR NOW. THE MODELS WHICH
SHOW A FARTHER S TRACK...NOTABLY THE 00Z ECMWF...INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SGNFT ACCUMULATING SN. THE 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS FCST AND SHOWS THE STRONGER SHRTWV PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR MI. BUT H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -10C WL SUPPORT SOME
LES EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RIBBON OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTING NE THRU NRN WI SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KSAW LATER THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO WATCH LOW STRATUS (LIFR/IFR CIGS) EXPANDING N AROUND LAKE MI.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO KEEP THIS STRATUS JUST E OF KSAW THIS EVENING. IF THE
STRATUS DOES REACH KSAW...IT WILL HAPPEN BTWN 01-04Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS FCST PERIOD AS A
SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT...
ENDING EITHER AFTER FROPA OR IN THE MORNING AFTER THE SUN RISES.
WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES/SUNSHINE RESULTING IN
GOOD MIXING...WINDS SAT WILL BE GUSTY TO 25-35KT AT ALL
TERMINALS...STRONGEST AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 242002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH HI PRES WL BRING DRY WX FOR SAT NGT/SUN...THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS A
PAIR OF STRONG SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO IMPACT THE UPR LKS...THE FIRST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SECOND ON THU. EXPECT TEMPS INTO TUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COLDER AIR IS ON TAP TO ARRIVE TUE NGT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND LINGER THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND SHRTWV...THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SN AT LEAST OVER THE NW HALF IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.

SAT NGT/SUN...DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG
ALF APRCHG FM THE PLAINS WL SUPPORT SFC HI PRES/AXIS OF MID LVL DRY
AIR THAT WL DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS. SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
APRCHG SFC HI PRES RDG AND SFC LO PRES MOVING INTO QUEBEC/FCST H925
WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS THAT MAY APRCH
ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP EARLY ON SAT EVNG. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STRONGER WINDS WL BE ABSENCE OF SGNFT H85 THERMAL
TROFFING AND ISALLOBARIC WIND/RELATIVELY CHILLY LK SUP WATER TEMPS
THAT LIMIT LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE WINDS WL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE
NGT WITH SLOW APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS/ WEAKER GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION. DESPITE MOCLR SKIES ON SAT NGT... THE STEADY NW FLOW
WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS ON SUN MRNG
OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RDG AXIS IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS MAY ARRIVE ON SUN AFTN
WITH APRCH OF WAD IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT
HI TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 10C OVER
THE W BY 00Z MON.

SUN NGT/MON...AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS THRU SE CANADA INTO THE NE
CONUS AND LEAD SHRTWV LIFTS OUT OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE WRN
PLAINS...A VIGOROUS WAD PATTERN IS PROGGED TO SETUP IN THE WRN
LKS...SHOWN BEST ON THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SFCS /H8-675/. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NEAR SFC DRY AIR...OPTED
TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...SHIFTING W-E ACRS UPR MI
AFT 06Z MON. ADDED A SCHC OF TS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAD BAND TO
ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 500J/KG ROOTED AT H8-85 AS
SHOWN ON NAM/GFS FCS SDNGS. WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOTTING/MID LVL
CAPPING ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHRTWV PASSAGE THRU NW
ONTARIO...EXPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DIMINISH W-E DURING
THE DAY ON MON. BUT PLENTY OF LOWER CLDS WL LINGER N OF SFC WARM FNT
IN WI...LIMITING THE DIURNAL RISE OF TEMP. TENDED TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE AS FCST SDNGS SHOW HI LLVL STABILITY N OF THE WARM
FNT.

MON NGT/TUE...AS STRONGER SHRTWV DRAGS THE PLAINS TROF E INTO THE
UPR LKS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO REDVLP IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES/
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FNT. THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THESE SHOWERS  WL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF MID LVL DRYING LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL WAD RAIN BAND.

TUE/WED...SHARP CYC WNW FLOW/LINGERING DEEP MSTR IN TANDEM WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -5C BY 12Z WED LEFT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
SHRTWV/SFC LO NEAR JAMES BAY WL SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPING LK ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT WL MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE
NW HALF BY LATE TUE NGT. THIS PCPN WL DIMINISH WITH APRCH OF H5 RDG
AXIS/SFC HI PRES RDG ON WED. A GUSTY WNW WIND WL ALSO DEVELOP ON TUE
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF LO MOVING TO THE NE BUT
THEN SUBSIDE ON WED WITH CLOSER APRCH OF THE SFC HI.

THU/FRI...EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG SHRTWV WL BE DIGGING
SEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS BUT DIFFER SGNFTLY IN THE DETAILS...EVEN
WHETHER THE DISTURBANCE WL PASS TO THE S OR N OF UPR MI. THERE HAS
BEEN CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS
WELL...SO WL RELY ON A CONSENSUS APRCH FOR NOW. THE MODELS WHICH
SHOW A FARTHER S TRACK...NOTABLY THE 00Z ECMWF...INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SGNFT ACCUMULATING SN. THE 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS FCST AND SHOWS THE STRONGER SHRTWV PASSING THRU NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR MI. BUT H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -10C WL SUPPORT SOME
LES EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

POOR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KSAW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS AT KSAW WHERE LLWS MAY OCCUR.
ALSO...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER WI TODAY MAY ADVECT OVER KSAW
TONIGHT AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY...GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LO PRES OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEEPPEN AND TRACK E TO FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES BAY BY SAT EVENING...DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. UNDER THE TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT WNW GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO
DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE E HALF. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR SAT MORNING
THRU SAT EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A HI
PRES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT TO MOVE TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON SUN. THE CLOSER APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL DIMINISH THE GALES.
ANOTHER LO PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK E...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUE. AS
THE LO TRACKS NE TO JAMES BAY ON WED...ANOTHER W GALE IS LIKELY FOR
TUE INTO WED UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ON ITS SW FLANK. A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL THEN DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WED. THE APPROACH OF THIS HI WILL
DIMINISH THE GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 241923
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

POOR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KSAW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS AT KSAW WHERE LLWS MAY OCCUR.
ALSO...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER WI TODAY MAY ADVECT OVER KSAW
TONIGHT AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY...GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 241745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CREATE PRIMARILY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COVER NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE. THE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING LOW NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING SHOWN ON THE MODELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING TAKES HOLD.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FIRST
AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BASED OFF MIXING TO 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SINCE THE BEST/DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR...ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY...DUE
TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING.
FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG SO JUST TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

POOR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KSAW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS AT KSAW WHERE LLWS MAY OCCUR.
ALSO...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER WI TODAY MAY ADVECT OVER KSAW
TONIGHT AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY...GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 241139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CREATE PRIMARILY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COVER NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE. THE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING LOW NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING SHOWN ON THE MODELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING TAKES HOLD.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FIRST
AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BASED OFF MIXING TO 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SINCE THE BEST/DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR...ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY...DUE
TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING.
FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG SO JUST TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY HAS LED TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING TAKES HOLD
TODAY...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...FIRST
AT AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW (KIWD IS ALREADY
OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG) AND THEN PROGRESSING INLAND. ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS COME TO AN END...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS STRUGGLING TO COME TO AN END
UPSTREAM IN WISCONSIN...THINK THEY WILL BUILD BACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND AFFECT KSAW AGAIN TONIGHT. PUT A FEW
HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGS AND END TO THE CLOUDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...EXPECT A BREEZY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CREATE PRIMARILY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COVER NEARLY ALL OF WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SEEN IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE. THE LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING LOW NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE MOISTURE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEEING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AIDED BY
A POCKET OF DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH DRYING SHOWN ON THE MODELS ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING TAKES HOLD.
EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FIRST
AND THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS INLAND AND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THUS...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S BASED OFF MIXING TO 925MB TEMPS AROUND 11C.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.
SINCE THE BEST/DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR...ONLY EXPECT SOME PASSING MID CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO NEWBERRY...DUE
TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING.
FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DON/T
THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG SO JUST TRIED TO SHOW A PERIOD OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IT THUS
APPEARS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE S TO SW WINDS...IT`S POSSIBLE
KIWD COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING VERY NEAR KIWD. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL 2-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE FOR LOW CIGS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240656
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IT THUS
APPEARS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE S TO SW WINDS...IT`S POSSIBLE
KIWD COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING VERY NEAR KIWD. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL 2-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE FOR LOW CIGS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240534
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRI NIGHT...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG 160 KNOTS
300 MB JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND THE STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS SUGGEST THAT A DECENT PORTION OF
THE 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C-4C
SUPPORTS MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUN...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO 55.

MON-TUE...MODELS REMAINED IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES MON
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE. THERE WERE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THE PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOWALTER INDICES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWAT TO
NEAR 1.25 INCH (250 PCT OF NORMAL).

WED...COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
LAKE ENHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW TO NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY.

THU...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NRN LAKES GFS/GEFS/ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW(ECMWF). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IT THUS
APPEARS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE S TO SW WINDS...IT`S POSSIBLE
KIWD COULD BREAK OUT TO VFR AT TIMES AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM THE DOWNSLOPING VERY NEAR KIWD. OTHERWISE...WILL NEED
TO WAIT UNTIL 2-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE FOR LOW CIGS/FOG TO CLEAR OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 232352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRI NIGHT...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG 160 KNOTS
300 MB JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND THE STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS SUGGEST THAT A DECENT PORTION OF
THE 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C-4C
SUPPORTS MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUN...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO 55.

MON-TUE...MODELS REMAINED IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES MON
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE. THERE WERE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THE PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOWALTER INDICES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWAT TO
NEAR 1.25 INCH (250 PCT OF NORMAL).

WED...COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
LAKE ENHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW TO NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY.

THU...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NRN LAKES GFS/GEFS/ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW(ECMWF). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT. WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE W...KIWD SHOULD IMPROVE
FIRST WITH IFR CIGS LIFTING TO LOW MVFR THIS EVENING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AROUND 05Z. KCMX WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND...JUST DELAYED A COUPLE OF HRS. HOWEVER...AT BOTH KIWD/KCMX...
IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOW CIGS COULD PERSIST THRU THE
NIGHT...OR AFTER CLEARING OCCURS...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE. AT
KSAW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIFR NIGHT IS IN THE OFFING BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING IF NOT SOONER...GIVEN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
NOTED UPSTREAM IN NCNTRL WI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS FRI...BUT ONLY AFTER EARLY MORNING LIFR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 232045
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
445 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRI NIGHT...MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG 160 KNOTS
300 MB JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRAZING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. SINCE THERE IS LIMITED
MOISTURE INFLOW AND THE STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROGS SUGGEST THAT A DECENT PORTION OF
THE 40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS WILL CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MIXING TO 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C-4C
SUPPORTS MAX READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUN...SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO 55.

MON-TUE...MODELS REMAINED IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGING A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES MON
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUE. THERE WERE EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THE PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...PER GFS/ECMWF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOWALTER INDICES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWAT TO
NEAR 1.25 INCH (250 PCT OF NORMAL).

WED...COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
LAKE ENHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW TO NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OUT QUICKLY.

THU...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL FAVOR POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NRN LAKES GFS/GEFS/ECMWF WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE RAIN OR POSSIBLE SNOW(ECMWF). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THESE DETAILS IS LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 231934
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 231934
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 231747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
CO-LOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 231747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
147 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
CO-LOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 231118
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
718 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
CO-LOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KSAW CONTINUES AND
EXPECT THAT TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. AM A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON IF/WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH...AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OF APPROACHING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE TO MIX
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. WILL FOLLOW THE IDEAS FROM THE MODELS OF IT
STARTING TO MIX OUT AROUND NOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND PERIOD...SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THEY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN TO APPROACH KIWD AND SHOULD
IMPACT THE SITE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THREE SITES AS THEY SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING...EXPECT A
GRADUAL CLEARING TO OCCUR AND THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG AT KCMX
AND ESPECIALLY KSAW. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE BROUGHT KSAW TO ALTERNATE
LANDING MINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230811
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHROT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCATIED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
COLOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230811
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE THIS MORNING...LEADING TO AN ACTIVE SHROT
TERM FORECAST. HEADING FROM EAST TO WEST...A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BE LIMITED
AND KEPT LOWS FROM BRING AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. STILL...HAVE SEEN
SOME LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF
THAT AREA. IN THE CENTRAL U.P. STRATUS AND FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED
AND IS COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF IRON...MARQUETTE...AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE THAN LAST
NIGHT AND GENERALLY BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 6 MILES. EXPECT THESE
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL FOG TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GOES CLOUD THICKNESS AROUND 1.1KFT WHICH WOULD INDICATE DISSIPATION
2.5-3HRS AFTER SUNRISE IN A NORMAL RADIATIONAL FOG SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A SLIGHT HYBRID...IT MATCHES SIMILAR DISSIPATION
TIME AS YESTERDAY AND USED THAT IDEA FOR THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING (MATCHES MOST MODELS FOR TIMING).

OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS TIED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP
850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH TIME AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS GRADIENT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THE SECONDARY
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCATIED WITH THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
AND 500MB SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN EASTERN MINNESOTA) WILL BECOME
COLOCATED WITH THE THETA-E GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
SECOND STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA) WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVES WILL MISS THE
AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WILL HOW TO HANDLE
THE WORDING FOR TODAY. THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE OFF/ON
FOR MUCH OF TODAY...THEN MORE STEADY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE
SURFACE-850MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THUS...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS (50 PERCENT) FOLLOWING THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM WEST TO CENTRAL TODAY WITH THE BEST FOCUS OF LIKELY/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P.

NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS WILL
TRACK...BUT THE MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THEM WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS THE TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE SEPARATE FURTHER
AND WEAKEN THE ELONGATED ENERGY BETWEEN THEM. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA...WHILE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO CLOUDS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE
DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH TAKES HOLD. IN
FACT...FAR WESTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY MAY EVEN TRY TO SCATTER OR CLEAR
OUT JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND PROVIDE THEM WITH THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY IN
THE U.P. TO SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. IF IT TIMES OUT...THEY
WOULD CATCH THE TAIL END OF THE ECLIPSE AS THE SUN IS SETTING
(MAXIMUM OCCURS AT 445PM CDT). THIS CLEARING WILL COMBINE WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAIN TO LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG
OVER THE CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN CWA. HAVE ADDED PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG TO THE FORECAST...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON
SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY (WITH A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. A ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI THRU THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA ALONG/AHEAD OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A PERIOD OF IFR COULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIME PCPN ENDS.
AT KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS LED
TO DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN A BREAK OUT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AT KSAW AS WEAKENING
FRONT AND SHRA APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...WITH LOW LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
FALL TO MVFR THU MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. AT
KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
ATTM...EXPECT LOW MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT IFR CIGS OR EVEN LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK OUT TO VFR LATER THU MORNING
BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAKENING FRONT AND SHRA
APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT AT KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA
INTO UPPER MI TONIGHT AND THU. INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX...BUT AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHRA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
FALL TO MVFR THU MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. AT
KSAW...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
ATTM...EXPECT LOW MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT IFR CIGS OR EVEN LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK OUT TO VFR LATER THU MORNING
BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS WEAKENING FRONT AND SHRA
APPROACH. ON ANOTHER NOTE...LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT AT KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222011
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE THE
SRN MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
FROM SASK INTO THE WRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW WAS INCREASING
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST INTO LOWER MI. VIS LOOP SHOWED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO SW UPPER MI WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT AND WED...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH INTO TO WRN MN BY 12Z/THU AND WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z/FRI.
EVEN THROUGH THERE MAY SEVERAL SEPARATE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD BRINGING ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHRTWVS TOWARD THE CWA. THE MODERATE 700-300MB QVECTOR CONV
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW (PWAT REACHES AOA 1.0 INCH OR
220 PCT OF NORMAL)WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PCPN MAY BE DELAYED AT THE ONSET AS THE
SFC-800 MB DRY LAYER PERSISTS UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE
INTO W UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AND CENTRL UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF OF 0.2 INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
MODEST DYNAMICS AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THAT AREA TONIGHT. KIWD SHOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN...BUT KCMX COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS
FOR KIWD/KCMX SHOULD STAY AT VFR AND POTENTIALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND THEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THU MORNING. INCREASING SRLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
BACK INTO KSAW. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CIGS OR LOWER. SO...MENTIONED CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR.
FINALLY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SRLY WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY AOB 20KTS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 221946
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
346 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
AS THE AREA IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE (AXIS JUST TO THE WEST OF US AND
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO). AT THE
SURFACE...A 1030MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND INTO ILLINOIS. A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING TOOK HOLD EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP. AT 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 19 AT DOE LAKE TO 37 AT IRONWOOD WHERE THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED. HAVE SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AT KIMT THIS
MORNING AND 11-3.9 SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST BARAGA AND NORTHERN IRON
COUNTIES. WITH A SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT MOST CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.P. SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE AREAS
THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE VERY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS IT BECOMES
PINCHED BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND AN APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT IN THE CANADIAN PRARIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE 900MB
INVERSION SEEN ON THE 00Z KAPX/KGRB/KINL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A SUNNY
DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS
WHERE/IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...BUT THINK COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS LOW. THAT 900MB
INVERSION WILL KEEP MIXING FROM REACHING THE MUCH WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES (AROUND 7C)...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (WARMEST WEST). DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE GUSTY OVER WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PEAK OUT AROUND 20MPH.

FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW (IN
CANADA) AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT...AS THE ABUNDANT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRIES TO OVERCOME THE EXISTING DRY AIR UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IN MINNESOTA AND OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS TIED TO WEAK 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SPREADING EAST
INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN. THERE ARE
SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES AROUND THE 700MB WHICH COULD GIVE A LITTLE
BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANY THUNDER TO OCCUR. QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. IF
A LOCATION WOULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS...THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE
ONTONAGON...SOUTHERN HOUGHTON AND WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY AREA. DUE TO
THE SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN AND THE DEPARTING
DRY AIR...EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. TO STAY
CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SINCE THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING. THAT SAID...WILL STILL SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE IN THAT AREA.
OVER THE WEST...THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM THE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF THE SATELLITE INGEST INTO THE
NUMERICAL MODELS /WITH NESDIS SATELLITE COMMS ISSUES CAUSING MISSING
OR OLD IMAGES ON WEB PAGES/...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FCST SOLUTIONS
MAY BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE
SINCE THE 22/00Z RUNS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO DETAILS ON WHEN
THE ISSUE WILL BE FIXED.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE E PROGRESSION OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. A SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER E
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT
S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-11C...HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL CROSS MANITOBA ON FRIDAY...AND N-CENTRAL ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR THE NE PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT.

AS THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FROM THE N PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING WNW WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 25-35MPH /STRONGEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/. INCREASED WINDS A BIT EARLIER THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FCST FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN AT THE SFC. FCST MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES AT 12Z MONDAY TO CROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO ONTARIO.
WHETHER OR NOT A SFC TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY IS
STILL IN QUESTION...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST STILL FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON. NEXT WEDNESDAY IS A COMPLETE TOSS UP...WITH
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 12Z RUNS RANGING FROM -5C TO 3C. WILL ADD A
SMALL MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN N-NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIP IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...AS A SECONDARY
LOW WRAPS NEARS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY AT KSAW ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST TOWARDS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THAT AREA TONIGHT. KIWD SHOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN...BUT KCMX COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA. CEILINGS
FOR KIWD/KCMX SHOULD STAY AT VFR AND POTENTIALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND THEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE THU MORNING. INCREASING SRLY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
BACK INTO KSAW. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CIGS OR LOWER. SO...MENTIONED CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR.
FINALLY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KIWD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD STAY BELOW 20KTS. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








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