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000
FXUS63 KMQT 060649
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
249 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER OVER THE ERN U.S. AND ANOTHER NEAR HUDSON BAY IN A
RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN 12Z SAT. THE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW HAS A
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON. IN SPITE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS...LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL AND QUIET.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON AND TROUGHING ACROSS SW CANADA WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A TROUGH
IN ERN CANADA. UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z TUE.
BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR 12Z WED WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU
WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET AS
POPS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AT KIWD/KSAW WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION PER
KMQT/KDLH VAD WIND PROFILES AND MODEL FCSTS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO
THE N AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO MOSTLY A VCSH WAS UTILIZED IN FCST. MIGHT BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHRA DOES AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND KCMX AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MARINE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE
NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KLUBER
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060538
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AT KIWD/KSAW WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION PER
KMQT/KDLH VAD WIND PROFILES AND MODEL FCSTS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO
THE N AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO MOSTLY A VCSH WAS UTILIZED IN FCST. MIGHT BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHRA DOES AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND KCMX AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MARINE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE
NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KLUBER
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 052318
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A DRY AIR MASS
WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRI AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 052318
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
718 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 10KT
TO PREVAIL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A DRY AIR MASS
WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FRI AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051955
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NNW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING THE WRN GREAT LKS BTWN DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE E AND AN
UPR RDG IN CENTRAL NAMERICA. A SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR
MIDWEST INTO WRN QUEBEC AS WELL AS DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB
RAOB IS BRINGING A MOSUNNY DAY TO UPR MI...BUT MORE MAINLY MID/HI
CLDS RELATED TO WAA IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG ARE
PRESENT FM WRN LK SUP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
UNDER THESE CLDS OVER MN WHERE MID LVL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN
STEEPER...BUT ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN WAA AND RELATIVELY DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF THIS PCPN...WITH
A DIMINISHING TREND IN RECENT HRS.

TNGT...AS SFC HI PRES RDG CONTINUES TO SLIDE SEWD...SW FLOW/WAA ARE
PROGGED TO DOMINATE THE CWA. EXPECT SOME MID/HI CLDS RELATED TO THIS
WAA TO PASS OVER THE CWA MAINLY THRU 06Z BEFORE SUBSIDENCE RELATED
TO SHARPENING H7 RDG AXIS DRIES UP THESE CLDS. CONSIDERED ADDING
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVNG OVER THE FAR W WHERE NAM
SHOWS POCKET OF H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 8C/KM AND SOME OF THE HIER RES
MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY QPF...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUG THE AIRMASS
IS SO DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE THAT THE DRY FCST GUIDANCE IS ON THE
RIGHT TRACK. COMBINATION OF THE WAA CLDS AND LLVL WARMING RELATED TO
STEADY SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS UP MUCH HIER THAN THIS MRNG. IN
FACT...READINGS MAY NOT FALL BLO 50 OVER THE FAR W FM IRONWOOD TO
ONTONAGON WHERE THE SW FLOW WL DOWNSLOPE.

FRI...UPR MI WL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI PRES RDG
TO THE SE AND SFC LO PRES TRACKING ACROSS NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV
MOVING OVER WRN RDG AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 18C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITHIN
LINGERING DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF
MAINLY LK MI OVER THE W HALF WL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS
ARPCH 90 AT A FEW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME MIXING CAUSING SFC DEWPTS
TO DROP AT LEAST CLOSE TO 40 IN THE AFTN...EXPECT MIN RH TO DIP NEAR
20 PCT AT A FEW PLACES. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO ARND 20 MPH...FIRE WX CONCERNS WL BE ELEVATED. WINDS WL
BE A BIT STRONGER OVER THE E...BUT MODERATION OFF LK MI WL LIMIT
FIRE WX CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-25 KTS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM STARTS AT 00Z SAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C AT 00Z...BUT WILL
DROP TO 1-2C BY 18Z SAT BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT...BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT...BUT SOME AREAS MAY NOT
EVEN SEE 0.10 INCHES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(CAPE UP TO 750 J/KG)...BUT NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS).

DRY AIR MOVES BACK IN ON SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR W AROUND AROUND 40 PERCENT INTERIOR E.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE W AND WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE
E. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E
AND AROUND 60 INTERIOR W. CERTAINLY NOT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
BUT THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY NEGATE ANY MOISTURE WE GET FRI NIGHT.
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY THE KEWEENAW AND ERN UPPER MI SAT EVENING INTO
SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT THINK
POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS.

SUN WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS/RH/CLOUDS TO SAT...BUT WITH LOWER WINDS.

MON AND TUE HAD APPEARED WET FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT THOSE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. NOW ONLY THE 00Z/05 ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP
OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT THE GLOBAL GEM WHICH HAS PRECIP BRUSHING SRN
MENOMINEE COUNTY. WILL ACCORDINGLY START A DECREASING TREND FOR THE
POP FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH TUE. NO PRECIP EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. EXPECT SCT MID
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 16C WL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS IN LOW 70S EAST
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES WRN INTERIOR WL DROP
TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. STRONGEST SW-S WIND GUSTS JUST BLO 20 MPH
WL BE EAST WHERE RH VALUES WL BE HIGHER. SW WIND GUSTS OVER DRIER
WRN HALF WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BLO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA
BLO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP EYE ON IF MODELS TREND STRONGER WITH WINDS. GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS
GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE FCST DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND
LOWER DWPNTS...SO WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA.

SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES A SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE FRI EVENING NORTHWEST TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL.
EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO TRACK OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WL FAVOR BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-700 J/KG (HIGHEST WEST HALF). MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT MOST MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.20 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO FROPA THAT OCCURRED
TUE AFTN/EVENING.

EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR. EXPECT NNW WINDS TO GUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP WITH DRYING AS RH VALUES FCST DOWN TO 25-
30 PCT SAT AFTN OVER WRN INTERIOR. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE MORE
SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
AND LOW RH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SAT AFTN OVER
INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS SHOW REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATING A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM. THIS MAY BRING TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CHC POPS FOR MAINLY TUE
INTO WED IN CASE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH IN
CENTRAL PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. EXPECT SCT MID
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 16C WL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS IN LOW 70S EAST
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES WRN INTERIOR WL DROP
TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. STRONGEST SW-S WIND GUSTS JUST BLO 20 MPH
WL BE EAST WHERE RH VALUES WL BE HIGHER. SW WIND GUSTS OVER DRIER
WRN HALF WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BLO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA
BLO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP EYE ON IF MODELS TREND STRONGER WITH WINDS. GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS
GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE FCST DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND
LOWER DWPNTS...SO WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA.

SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES A SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE FRI EVENING NORTHWEST TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL.
EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO TRACK OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WL FAVOR BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-700 J/KG (HIGHEST WEST HALF). MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT MOST MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.20 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO FROPA THAT OCCURRED
TUE AFTN/EVENING.

EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR. EXPECT NNW WINDS TO GUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP WITH DRYING AS RH VALUES FCST DOWN TO 25-
30 PCT SAT AFTN OVER WRN INTERIOR. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE MORE
SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
AND LOW RH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SAT AFTN OVER
INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS SHOW REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATING A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM. THIS MAY BRING TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CHC POPS FOR MAINLY TUE
INTO WED IN CASE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH IN
CENTRAL PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO
PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH DRY HI PRES
DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051125
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. EXPECT SCT MID
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 16C WL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS IN LOW 70S EAST
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES WRN INTERIOR WL DROP
TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. STRONGEST SW-S WIND GUSTS JUST BLO 20 MPH
WL BE EAST WHERE RH VALUES WL BE HIGHER. SW WIND GUSTS OVER DRIER
WRN HALF WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BLO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA
BLO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP EYE ON IF MODELS TREND STRONGER WITH WINDS. GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS
GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE FCST DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND
LOWER DWPNTS...SO WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA.

SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES A SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE FRI EVENING NORTHWEST TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL.
EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO TRACK OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WL FAVOR BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-700 J/KG (HIGHEST WEST HALF). MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT MOST MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.20 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO FROPA THAT OCCURRED
TUE AFTN/EVENING.

EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR. EXPECT NNW WINDS TO GUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP WITH DRYING AS RH VALUES FCST DOWN TO 25-
30 PCT SAT AFTN OVER WRN INTERIOR. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE MORE
SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
AND LOW RH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SAT AFTN OVER
INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS SHOW REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATING A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM. THIS MAY BRING TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CHC POPS FOR MAINLY TUE
INTO WED IN CASE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH IN
CENTRAL PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. EXPECT MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS
AT KSAW...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE PASSING THE TERMINAL BY
LATE MORNING...THEN THE LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051125
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. EXPECT SCT MID
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 16C WL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS IN LOW 70S EAST
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES WRN INTERIOR WL DROP
TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. STRONGEST SW-S WIND GUSTS JUST BLO 20 MPH
WL BE EAST WHERE RH VALUES WL BE HIGHER. SW WIND GUSTS OVER DRIER
WRN HALF WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BLO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA
BLO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP EYE ON IF MODELS TREND STRONGER WITH WINDS. GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS
GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE FCST DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND
LOWER DWPNTS...SO WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA.

SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES A SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE FRI EVENING NORTHWEST TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL.
EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO TRACK OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WL FAVOR BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-700 J/KG (HIGHEST WEST HALF). MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT MOST MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.20 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO FROPA THAT OCCURRED
TUE AFTN/EVENING.

EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR. EXPECT NNW WINDS TO GUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP WITH DRYING AS RH VALUES FCST DOWN TO 25-
30 PCT SAT AFTN OVER WRN INTERIOR. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE MORE
SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
AND LOW RH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SAT AFTN OVER
INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS SHOW REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATING A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM. THIS MAY BRING TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CHC POPS FOR MAINLY TUE
INTO WED IN CASE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH IN
CENTRAL PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. EXPECT MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS
AT KSAW...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE PASSING THE TERMINAL BY
LATE MORNING...THEN THE LAKE MI LAKE BREEZE BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. EXPECT SCT MID
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 16C WL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS IN LOW 70S EAST
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES WRN INTERIOR WL DROP
TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. STRONGEST SW-S WIND GUSTS JUST BLO 20 MPH
WL BE EAST WHERE RH VALUES WL BE HIGHER. SW WIND GUSTS OVER DRIER
WRN HALF WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BLO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA
BLO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP EYE ON IF MODELS TREND STRONGER WITH WINDS. GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS
GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE FCST DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND
LOWER DWPNTS...SO WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA.

SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES A SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE FRI EVENING NORTHWEST TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL.
EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO TRACK OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WL FAVOR BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-700 J/KG (HIGHEST WEST HALF). MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT MOST MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.20 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO FROPA THAT OCCURRED
TUE AFTN/EVENING.

EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR. EXPECT NNW WINDS TO GUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP WITH DRYING AS RH VALUES FCST DOWN TO 25-
30 PCT SAT AFTN OVER WRN INTERIOR. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE MORE
SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
AND LOW RH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SAT AFTN OVER
INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS SHOW REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATING A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM. THIS MAY BRING TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CHC POPS FOR MAINLY TUE
INTO WED IN CASE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH IN
CENTRAL PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. EXPECT SCT MID
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 16C WL SUPPORT INLAND TEMPS IN LOW 70S EAST
DOWNSTREAM OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES WRN INTERIOR WL DROP
TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. STRONGEST SW-S WIND GUSTS JUST BLO 20 MPH
WL BE EAST WHERE RH VALUES WL BE HIGHER. SW WIND GUSTS OVER DRIER
WRN HALF WILL GENERALLY STAY AT OR BLO 15 MPH WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA
BLO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP EYE ON IF MODELS TREND STRONGER WITH WINDS. GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRY TO SHOW A POCKET OF HIGHER DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS
GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE FCST DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS
OVERALL PATTERN WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND
LOWER DWPNTS...SO WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA.

SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO PUSHES A SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN BEGINNING LATE FRI EVENING NORTHWEST TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL.
EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO TRACK OF MAIN
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT WL FAVOR BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA WITH
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 250-700 J/KG (HIGHEST WEST HALF). MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT MOST MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.20 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO FROPA THAT OCCURRED
TUE AFTN/EVENING.

EXPECT BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ON SAT WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR. EXPECT NNW WINDS TO GUST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20
MPH. GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP WITH DRYING AS RH VALUES FCST DOWN TO 25-
30 PCT SAT AFTN OVER WRN INTERIOR. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA ARE MORE
SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE STRONGER WINDS
AND LOW RH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SAT AFTN OVER
INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

MODELS SHOW REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS INDICATING A POCKET
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM. THIS MAY BRING TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER CHC POPS FOR MAINLY TUE
INTO WED IN CASE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF UPPER TROUGH IN
CENTRAL PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO AREA.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050650
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID-CLOUDS
FORCED BY WAA FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE BIFURCATING UPPER
MI...LIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ACROSS THE
WEST...INCREASING H8 TEMPS JUST BELOW A STOUT INVERSION WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 70.

LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 HPA LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S INTERIOR WEST HALF. THIS DRY LAYER IS QUICKLY
WIPED OUT BY RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES MAY RECOVER SOME LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST...ALLOWING INCREASING SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEST AND DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AGAIN...CONTINUED WAA
ALOFT WILL KEEP MID-CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT QPF AT TIMES...DRY LOW-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
ANY OTHER APPRECIABLE FORCING SUGGESTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.

TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016
WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN NORTHERLY TO
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 050524
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE FROM HE ROCKIES INTO SASK AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH
ERN UPPER MI TO INDIANA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN 1001 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN
LOWER MI AND A RIDGE FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THINNING CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI AS THE 900-700
MB MOISTURE THINS OUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN
FCST...EXPECT THAT BTWN 21Z-24Z MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE MID 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEEPING MAX READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.

TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY UNDER 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 042345
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE FROM HE ROCKIES INTO SASK AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH
ERN UPPER MI TO INDIANA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN 1001 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN
LOWER MI AND A RIDGE FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THINNING CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI AS THE 900-700
MB MOISTURE THINS OUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN
FCST...EXPECT THAT BTWN 21Z-24Z MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE MID 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEEPING MAX READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.

TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AS DRIER AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KSAW WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY UNDER 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 042002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
RIDGE FROM HE ROCKIES INTO SASK AND A TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH
ERN UPPER MI TO INDIANA. AT THE SFC...GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI BETWEEN 1001 MB LOW PRES OVER SRN
LOWER MI AND A RIDGE FROM NW ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. VIS
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THINNING CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI AS THE 900-700
MB MOISTURE THINS OUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN
FCST...EXPECT THAT BTWN 21Z-24Z MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN THE MID 20S OVER THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEEPING MAX READINGS IN THE 50S NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.

TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY UNDER 20
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
FRI...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC WARM FRONT TO BRING WARM
SUMMERLIKE TEMPS BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRI AFTN. INITIAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 8C/KM
COULD TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY LK SUPERIOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHERE STRONGEST H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION LINKS UP WITH
SUFFICIENT H85-H7 MOISTURE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN...EXPECT
SCT MID CLOUDS TO START THE DAY FRI...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN
WITH H85 TEMPS TO +16 SUPPORTS GOING FORECAST OF 70S EAST DOWNSTREAM
OF LK MICHIGAN TO MID-UPR 80S WEST IN THE AFTN. DWPNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S...SO RH VALUES DROP TO 20-25 PCT IN THE AFTN. SW-S
WINDS LOOKS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED BUT
STILL GUSTS PEAKING AT 20 MPH WILL KEEP AREA BLO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP EYE ON IN TERMS OF IF
STRONGER TREND IN WINDS CONTINUES. NAM/GFS TRY TO SHOW POCKET OF
DWPNTS FM LOW-MID 50S AND THUS GENERATE SBCAPE OVER 1000J/KG OVER
CNTRL CWA FRI AFTN AND SHOW SOME CONVECTION. COULD MAYBE SEE DWPNTS
UP TO 50 LOCALLY MAINLY NEAR WI BORDER SOUTH CNTRL. OVERALL PATTERN
WITH LOWERING H85-H7 RH FAVORS DEEPER MIXING AND LOWER DWPNTS...SO
WILL KEEP FRI AFTN WARM BUT WITH NO CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

WARMTH WILL BE BRIEF AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO
PUSHES SFC-H85 COLD FRONT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATE EVENING NORTHWEST
TO OVERNIGHT SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH STRONGER PVA STAYS NORTH CLOSER TO
TRACK OF MAIN SHORTWAVE ACROSS ONTARIO...DIFFLUENT H5-H3 FLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT FAVORS BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AS
FOR STRENGTH OF TSRA...UNLESS FRONT ARRIVES 00Z-03Z INSTEAD OF MORE
03Z-06Z...LIKELY LOOKING AT ELEVATED STORMS. ELEVATED MUCAPE
FORECASTS VARY WITH NAM SHOWING UP TO 2000J/KG AT 00Z SAT MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN WI WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE MAINLY 500J/KG OR LESS. ECMWF
KEEPS MOST INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CWA FRI NIGHT. MEAN
FLOW IS WNW SO IF ECMWF IS CORRECT...MOST OF TSRA WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. IF MODELS WITH MORE BULLISH INSTABILITY FARTHER
EAST ARE CORRECT...THERE IS ENOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO RESULT IN
STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS MOST OF CWA WITHIN GENERAL TSRA RISK FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MAIN HINDRANCE THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY. ATTM LOOKS LIKE TOTAL RAINFALL FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SIMILAR TO
FROPA THAT JUST OCCURRED TUE AFTN INTO THIS MORNING.

TURNING BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER ON SAT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL NOT BE
A COOL AS TODAY BUT THE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO THE
SUMMERTIME WARMTH ON FRI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. SHOULD DRY
OUT WITH RH VALUES DOWN TO 25-30 PCT SAT AFTN. IF SHOWERS AND TSRA
ARE MORE SPOTTY ON FRI NIGHT RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAIN...THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH WOULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
ON SAT AFTN OVER INTERIOR WEST AS TEMPS STILL REACH INTO THE 60S.

RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO MEAN TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND
POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ISOLD-SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT MAINLY OVER EAST HALF.
A BIT QUICKER TREND IN MODELS SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA COULD MOVE OVER
KEWEENAW AS EARLY AS MID-LATE SAT AFTN. OTHERWISE...REST OF LONG
TERM SUN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THERE IN CASE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
PLAINS COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TUE AND/OR WED.
LATEST ECMWF WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN VCNTY RESULTS IN LAKE BREEZES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THU INTO FRI AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MI ON THU THEN SHIFTS E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXTENDS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING TO BEGIN AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS
LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING ON FRI AND H85 TEMPS
16-18C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 70S EAST TO
MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR WEST. ALTHOUGH MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 25 PCT
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.

THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL ABRUPTLY END AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES STEEPER THAN 7C/KM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/ASSOC COLD FRONT AND
SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR OF U.P. ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG MAIN VORT MAX TRACK DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-
30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20 MPH INLAND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED INTO EARLY WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
CONUS TO NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MORE
PROMINENT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE SUPRESSED RIDGE. HOW MUCH RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA WL IMPACT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT INLAND
HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 70S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. ASSOC SFC RDGG SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SFC LOW AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THU INTO FRI AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MI ON THU THEN SHIFTS E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXTENDS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING TO BEGIN AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS
LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING ON FRI AND H85 TEMPS
16-18C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 70S EAST TO
MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR WEST. ALTHOUGH MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 25 PCT
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.

THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL ABRUPTLY END AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES STEEPER THAN 7C/KM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/ASSOC COLD FRONT AND
SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR OF U.P. ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG MAIN VORT MAX TRACK DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-
30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20 MPH INLAND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED INTO EARLY WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
CONUS TO NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MORE
PROMINENT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE SUPRESSED RIDGE. HOW MUCH RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA WL IMPACT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT INLAND
HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 70S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. ASSOC SFC RDGG SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SFC LOW AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING AT KCMX AND KSAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THU INTO FRI AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MI ON THU THEN SHIFTS E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXTENDS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING TO BEGIN AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS
LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING ON FRI AND H85 TEMPS
16-18C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 70S EAST TO
MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR WEST. ALTHOUGH MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 25 PCT
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.

THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL ABRUPTLY END AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES STEEPER THAN 7C/KM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/ASSOC COLD FRONT AND
SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR OF U.P. ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG MAIN VORT MAX TRACK DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-
30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20 MPH INLAND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED INTO EARLY WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
CONUS TO NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MORE
PROMINENT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE SUPRESSED RIDGE. HOW MUCH RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA WL IMPACT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT INLAND
HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 70S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. ASSOC SFC RDGG SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SFC LOW AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KCMX AND KSAW TODAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OR
TWO OF HIGH-END IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSAW THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC
AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX
AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 041139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THU INTO FRI AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MI ON THU THEN SHIFTS E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXTENDS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING TO BEGIN AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS
LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING ON FRI AND H85 TEMPS
16-18C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 70S EAST TO
MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR WEST. ALTHOUGH MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 25 PCT
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.

THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL ABRUPTLY END AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES STEEPER THAN 7C/KM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/ASSOC COLD FRONT AND
SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR OF U.P. ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG MAIN VORT MAX TRACK DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-
30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20 MPH INLAND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED INTO EARLY WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
CONUS TO NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MORE
PROMINENT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE SUPRESSED RIDGE. HOW MUCH RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA WL IMPACT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT INLAND
HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 70S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. ASSOC SFC RDGG SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SFC LOW AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A MID-LEVEL LOW PASSING TO THE EAST WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KCMX AND KSAW TODAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OR
TWO OF HIGH-END IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KSAW THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW THIS MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES SKC
AFTER 00Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AT BOTH KCMX
AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040921
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW AND DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRI. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL GIVE
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THU INTO FRI AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER UPPER MI ON THU THEN SHIFTS E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES EXTENDS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WARMING TO BEGIN AWAY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS
LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING ON FRI AND H85 TEMPS
16-18C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 70S EAST TO
MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR WEST. ALTHOUGH MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 25 PCT
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.

THE SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL ABRUPTLY END AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES STEEPER THAN 7C/KM AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/ASSOC COLD FRONT AND
SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR OF U.P. ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT INTO EARLY
EVENING...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG MAIN VORT MAX TRACK DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-
30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20 MPH INLAND.

EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED INTO EARLY WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
CONUS TO NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW MORE
PROMINENT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER AND MORE SUPRESSED RIDGE. HOW MUCH RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA WL IMPACT TEMPS...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT INLAND
HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S...PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 70S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR. ASSOC SFC RDGG SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
SFC LOW AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KIWD WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040720
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI
TODAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS ALONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS FAVORED BY NNW WINDS. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT MINIMAL CLOUD DEPTH WITH TEMPS BELOW
-5C INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL AS ALMOST ALL RAIN. A PRETTY STOUT
INVERSION WILL KEEP MUCH OF UPPER MI SOCKED IN WITH A STRATUS DECK
INTO THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED MESO-HIGH OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL AID IN PRODUCING GUSTY NNW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL FAVOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE. SOME LOCATIONS CENTRAL
AND EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE MAY EVEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40F. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES...ESPECIALLY WEST. THIS...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KIWD WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL YIELD
NORTH WINDS TO 15 KNOTS WEST TO 30 KNOTS CENTRAL AND EAST. THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF NW WINDS TO 30
KNOTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
WESTERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040535
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KIWD WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 040535
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KIWD WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 032332
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. THIS EVENING.
COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED
AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LESS LIKELY THERE...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.   EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 032332
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. THIS EVENING.
COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KSAW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED
AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LESS LIKELY THERE...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO SEE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.   EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 032018
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 032016
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 032016
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 031930
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 031856
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 031856
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
RESTRIC VSBY. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 031141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KSAW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO WED MORNING. KCMX AND KIWD WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THERE.
IN FACT...THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KIWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT BOTH KCMX AND
KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030913
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN/CENTRAL INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH FACTORS ARE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO ISSUE A WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
STATEMENT TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONCERNS/POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030905
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN
MANITOBA INTO THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NW
ONTARIO WILL BE MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
FCST IT TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGE HAS MOVED SE IN ADVANCE OF
TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO. SOME MID-LVL WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE SPILLED INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN
UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NW ONTARIO WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 250-300 MB
JET MAX NOSING INTO MN. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C OR GREATER MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA...OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
UPPER MI. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF
SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHRA MAKING IT
INTO THE CNTRL AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES
INTO THE 25-35 PCT RANGE COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS FOR
MAINLY THE WRN INTERIOR. GIVEN THAT FACTORS WERE MARGINAL FOR
MEETING LOCAL CRITERIA DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL STATEMENT BUT WILL PLAY UP STRONGER WORDING IN FWF AND HWO
PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA AS FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE
REGION. CAA WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. COULD
SEE NORTH WINDS GUST 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FM
KEWEENAW EAST TO WHITEFISH POINT. LOWERING WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT COULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LIGHT -SHSN TO MIX IN WITH -SHRA/-DZ MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NCNTRL. EXPECT COVERAGE OF -SHRA TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
MID-LVL DRYING AS SHALLOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW -10C ISOTHERM WL
SUPPORT MORE -DZ.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AND ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL
BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE
EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH
WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030816
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO
THE NRN LAKES. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO NRN
MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO UPPER
MI WITH INLAND CU INLAND WEST AND NEAR LAKE MI OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NRN ONTARIO. ADVANCING WAA MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MIXING FROM DEVELOPING SW
GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH
SHOULD ALLOW FALLING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN CLIMB TOWARD
SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
CENTRAL AND EAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE 40 NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WEST.

TUESDAY...THE VIGOROUS NRN MANITOBA SHRTWV TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE NRN LAKES BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH
THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 250-300 MB JET. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE
200-400 J/KG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT
SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND EAST CWA BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES... TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...GUSTY SW WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ALONG WITH RH VALUES INTO THE
25-35 PCT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS PRECIP WILL
STALL OVER LOWER MI ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH N TO NNW WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 CENTRAL AND EAST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
INLAND...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI TO NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-HIGH ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...WILL RESULT IN N TO NNW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CENTRAL AND
EAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS PERIOD AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS ACROSS THE
CONUS. WITH THE RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES...WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE TRENDED
UP WITH TEMPS FOR FRI GIVEN IDEAL MIXING CONDITIONS AND H8 TEMPS
AROUND 15C FOR THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF CRACK THE 80F MARK...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE LOWER
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED ITS FASTER TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
FRONT NOW CLEARING THE CWA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH A RESIDUAL EML FROM FRIDAY SUPPORT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. SAT WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT THE CHANGE WONT BE AS DRASTIC AS WILL BE THE
CASE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS THEN MODERATE
MONDAY AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONDITION BELOW
VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS BLO
20 KNOTS. AS RIDGE SAGS SE TONIGHT...WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. WINDS WILL BECOME
N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO
LESS THAN 20KT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS





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