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000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 031057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS STILL IN STORE AS GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS WILL BE DIRECTLY INFLUENCED BY DEEP TROUGHING
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE OVER 10F BELOW NORMAL IN SOME AREAS AND WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE IN THIS PATTERN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. LARGE SCALE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIP IN
THE AFTN THOUGH AS STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE H85-H7/H7-H5 SPREADS
OVER UPPER LAKES. RESULT IS DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER
IN THE AFTN. THOUGH STRATOCU CLOUDS LIKELY WILL BE EXPANSIVE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN. MODEL QPF PICKING UP
ON THIS WITH MOST THAT SHOW QPF ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IT 12Z-18Z
INSTEAD OF DURING PEAK HEATING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS
WEEK AS READINGS STAY IN THE 50S ALONG LK SUPERIOR OVER EAST CWA.
REST OF CWA WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOW-MID 60S AT THAT. FAR SCNTRL
TOWARD KMNM MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTN. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIRMASS...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
IN LOW-LEVELS NOT VERY STRONG...SO WINDS/WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN LOW.

RIDGING MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP WEATHER
DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLD SHRA OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED...BUT STILL COOL AIR ALOFT
AND SOME WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING EXPECTED AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY NARROW DEPTH TO MOISTURE 850-800MB LEFT
OVER THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP WITH DRY FORECAST. PROBABLY ONLY WOULD
BE SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING DID OCCUR. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85 TEMPS AND
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
REACH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST. STILL BLO NORMAL...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS TUESDAY.

COULD STILL BE SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. THIS OCCURS AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF OF CA LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SINCE THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY THROUGH H7 STAYS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS TRUDGING INTO LOW-LEVEL SFC
RIDGE...THINK RAIN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO CWA THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT ONLY OVER WESTERN CWA
AND NEAR WI BORDER. CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT ON THU...BUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OFF SHRA/TSRA TO THE WEST MAY TEMPER MAX
TEMPS TO AROUND 70 OR INTO LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH FM HUDSON BAY
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

START TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CWA ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE GREATER INSTABILITY STAYS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS AND FLOW IS STILL WNW ON PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH...MOST CWA COULD END STAYING DRY AS LATEST ECMWF INDICATES.
GFS DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA. WILL KEY ON
HOW MUCH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT THIS FAR EAST OF INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN THAT DOWN ATTM. WARMEST TEMPS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPR 70S OVER INTERIOR EAST WITH STEADY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LESS CHANCE OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS. PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SET UP OVER NORTHERN PLAINS
HELP TO BRING INCREASED H85 THETA-E RIDGING INTO UPPER LAKES WITH AN
INCREASE IN ELEVATED MUCAPE. CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND PER CONSENSUS OF POPS WHICH SEEMS FINE ATTM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE NW
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IN THE TROUGH ARE A FEW SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CAUSE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

NAM HAS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY ALONG WITH
SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BOTH MOVE OUT TONIGHT. WITH SOME MOISTURE
AROUND AND UPPER TROUGHING AS WELL...IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND KEPT THEM IN.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME
SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 030000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 021944
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 021943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021756
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 021756
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 021113
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND
ROCKIES WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S.
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE
PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DIG A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY ALONG WITH 850-500
MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. BOTH OF THESE LEAVE THE CWA TONIGHT. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL FOR
TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. DID GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
WENT DRY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. LATE
TONIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A TROF ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.
HIGH PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07




000
FXUS63 KMQT 020521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 020521
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 012348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME -SHRA TO
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASS OVER
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNIGHT WITH
A STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER. APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL BRING A BETTER CHC OF SHRA AND
PROBABLY SOME TS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT IF THERE IS BRIEF MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
SHORT TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 011132
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KCMX. SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY TO AT LEAST 20 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 011132
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KCMX. SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY TO AT LEAST 20 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010849
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...
WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010849
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LAKES REMAINS ON EDGE OF TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. SFC LOW WITH MSLP DOWN TO 990MB IS LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY AS
WELL. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE DROPPING SE ACROSS
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. GOOD
AGREEMENT FM MODELS THAT WEAK LIFT /INCREASED MID-LEVEL RH AND H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MLCAPES OVER 500J/KG COULD KICK OFF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...EAST OF ESCANABA AND SOUTH OF
NEWBERRY. H85 TEMPS 1-2C WARMER BY THIS AFTN COMPARED TO FRIDAY...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST
SCNTRL. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG/GUSTY AS FRIDAY...MAINLY
FM THE WNW GUSTING UP TO 15-23 MPH...STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND
INTERIOR WEST. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PCT RANGE.
GIVEN THE DRY...AND SOMEWHAT DROUGHTISH...PATTERN WE HAVE SETTLED
INTO THE LAST FEW WEEKS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAIN IS OBSERVED.

SPEAKING OF RAIN...COULD FIND SOME IN RAIN GAGES BY DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. NOT A SURE THING THOUGH. SOUNDINGS FM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FM THE NW ALONG WITH SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING FORCING
AND MOISTURE TRY TO MOVE IN FM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH IS ABOVE H8...MORE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER.
H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION STRONGEST OVER MN AND WI CLOSER TO STRONGER
WSW H85 JET 35-40 KTS. MUCAPE IN LOWEST FEW KM ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER
MN/WI..PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SAMPLING OF MODELS FOR QPF/RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FM MAINLY DRY ECMWF AND GEM...TO GFS WHICH IS THE MOST
GENEROUS. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS NIGHT GOES ON WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES LATER AT NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING FM NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH. MUCAPE
MAXIMIZING TO THE SOUTH OF CWA COULD INTERCEPT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
THAT WOULD FEED INTO TSRA. YET...CANADIAN SHORTWAVE SHOWS POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR TSRA. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...THOUGH COULD SEE 50S
INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY TRY TO DECOUPLE. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH STEADY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...
WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE...THOUGH SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY REACH 20-
25 KTS OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AHEAD AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...
WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG 12Z SUN THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUN.
UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 12Z TUE AS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES FROM THE NW AND AREA REMAINS IN THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM HAS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH ON SUN WITH BOTH MOVING OUT SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BEFORE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
AGAIN. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS COLDER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN BEFORE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. TROUGHING STILL REMAINS OVERHEAD 12Z THU.
ECMWF THEN SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHORTWAVE THAT COMES ALONG IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE TROUGHING COULD PRODUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS FOR THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...
WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 010536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...
WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE...
WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 312346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE ON
SAT...WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 312346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE ON
SAT...WNW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20KT AGAIN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 311937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 311937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ANOTHER GUSTY DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDER. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE CWA IS ALONG A LAKE INDUCED CONVERGENCE LINE FROM
NEAR SKANDIA TO NEAR MANISTIQUE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ANOTHER AREA OF
GREATER COVERAGE IS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THEN DIMINISH AFTER LOSS OF
SFC HEATING THIS EVENING. MODEL TRENDS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN TOWARD
NO PRECIP...SO WENT ALONG WITH THAT IN REMOVING POPS TONIGHT. A SFC
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE W SAT...SO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARE CONFINED
TO THE ERN CWA AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.

NW-WNW WIND GUSTS TO 21-23KTS ARE PRETTY STANDARD OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RH PERCENTAGES FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HAVE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. SAT
LOOKS TO SEE SIMILAR RH LEVELS TO TODAY...BUT WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3-5KTS LOWER THAN TODAY. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SAT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 311918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LIKE YESTERDAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES CONTROLLING THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS
A WEAK TROUGH OF 1009MB AT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE
SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...BUT MOST HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KEWEENAW
AT 430AM. THESE WEAK SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH CONTINUE EAST
THIS MORNING..COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS. BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM THAT IDEA...LARGELY DUE TO THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
IT THROUGH TOO EARLY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO TREND DOWN
THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. SHIFTING THE FOCUS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL CWA...DO THINK THAT ISOLATED TO MAYBE EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND
LARGELY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE
TO VEERING WINDS FROM A SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE (EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO
WESTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES). BEST INSTABILITY IS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA IN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES (ML CAPE OF
NEARING 1000 J/KG)...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 500-750 OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. LIKE YESTERDAY...AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING
(DCAPES AHEAD OF MODEL CONVECTION SHOWS VALUES APPROACHING 800-1000
J/KG) WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE
ONE THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING TO LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS MATCHED
THAT IDEA...ALONG WITH NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES...SO HAVE SPREAD SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
OUT THERE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LAST
2 DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE MIXED LAYER WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES INDICATING GUSTS IN THE
LOW 20KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUST
FORECAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND BEING WITHIN A POCKET OF STRONGER 925MB WINDS.
THINK THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU TODAY AND HAVE PUSHED
SOME AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY.
THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS BEING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WILL PRODUCE HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY...AS THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE CONTINUED WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED.

FINALLY FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VARYING ON
THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE AND WITH LITTLE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE UPSTREAM...WON/T GO TOO HIGH ON POPS BUT WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS PAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL REINFORCE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 311918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LIKE YESTERDAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES CONTROLLING THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS
A WEAK TROUGH OF 1009MB AT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE
SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...BUT MOST HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KEWEENAW
AT 430AM. THESE WEAK SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH CONTINUE EAST
THIS MORNING..COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS. BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM THAT IDEA...LARGELY DUE TO THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
IT THROUGH TOO EARLY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO TREND DOWN
THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. SHIFTING THE FOCUS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL CWA...DO THINK THAT ISOLATED TO MAYBE EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND
LARGELY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE
TO VEERING WINDS FROM A SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE (EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO
WESTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES). BEST INSTABILITY IS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA IN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES (ML CAPE OF
NEARING 1000 J/KG)...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 500-750 OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. LIKE YESTERDAY...AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING
(DCAPES AHEAD OF MODEL CONVECTION SHOWS VALUES APPROACHING 800-1000
J/KG) WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE
ONE THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING TO LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS MATCHED
THAT IDEA...ALONG WITH NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES...SO HAVE SPREAD SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
OUT THERE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LAST
2 DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE MIXED LAYER WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES INDICATING GUSTS IN THE
LOW 20KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUST
FORECAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND BEING WITHIN A POCKET OF STRONGER 925MB WINDS.
THINK THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU TODAY AND HAVE PUSHED
SOME AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY.
THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS BEING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WILL PRODUCE HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY...AS THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE CONTINUED WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED.

FINALLY FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VARYING ON
THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE AND WITH LITTLE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE UPSTREAM...WON/T GO TOO HIGH ON POPS BUT WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS PAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SERIES OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FLANK OF
CLOSED LO OVER HUDSON BAY WL PASS THRU THE UPR LKS AND BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS/SOME TS TO UPR MI SAT NGT AND SUN. THE LAST SHRTWV
IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THE UPR TROF INTO THE GREAT LKS NEXT WEEK. SO
AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...NEXT WEEK WL FEATURE MUCH
COOLER WX.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INITIAL
SHRTWV APRCHG FM THE NW ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR LKS ON SAT
EVNG. AS THE LLVL FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE WSW...THE GUIDANCE...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...HINTS AT A RETURN OF HIER H85 DEWPTS UNDER
THE INCOMING DYNAMICS. SO DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...PLAN TO
ADD CHC POPS FOR SAT NGT. BASED ON EXPECTATION OF MORE MSTR RETURN/
CLD COVER...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. CONCERNS THEN
SHIFT TO IMPACT OF DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHRTWV ON THE
STRONGER TRAILING DISTURBANCE THAT WL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SOME LLVL DRYING/
NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE AND
FCSTS ONLY LIGHT PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ARRIVAL OF ATTENDANT COLD FNT WL BE IN BETTER SYNC WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. BUT EVEN THE DRIER NAM SHOWS MUCAPE INCRSG
TO 500-1000 J/KG...SO WL RETAIN CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN. FCST
WL SHOW THE HIER POPS FOCUSED OVER THE SE CWA DUE TO GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC BTWN COLD
FNT/LK BREEZES OFF LK MI. EXPECT POPS TO DIMINISH NW-SE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DRYING FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA.

SUN NGT...ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHRTWV IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN
A DRY FCST. AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS INTO THE UPR LKS AND H85 TEMPS
FALL TOWARD 6-8C BY 12Z MON...MODELS SHOW SOME INCRSG SFC-H85 MSTR
IN MORE CYC LLVL NW FLOW. EXPECT INCRSG SC OVER MAINLY THE HIER
TERRAIN OF THE NW CWA WITH UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AS THE COOLER
PUSHES INTO THE CWA.

MON...WITH WEAKLY CYC NW H85 FLOW...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LLVL MSTR
FCST UNDER LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL INVRN AND INCOMING H85
THERMAL TROF...EXPECT AN EXPANSION OF CU/SC WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A
NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME LGT QPF...SO WL RETAIN SOME LO
CHC POPS MAINLY AWAY FM LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION/SHOWERS. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE 6-8C
RANGE AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS.

MON NGT...ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW/NOCTURNAL COOLING UNDER
CONTINUED LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE LO CLDS. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLRG...THE
COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL
INTO THE 40S.

TUE THRU FRI...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE UPR LKS ON
TUE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...SO WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS. DURING
THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME...LARGER SCALE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST AROUND FAIRLY DEEP UPR TROF IN SE CANADA. THERE IS POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES...SO WL HOLD ON TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS. LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHC FOR DRY WX IS ON WED. TEMPS WL RUN BLO NORMAL DURING THE
LONGER TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL REINFORCE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 311742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LIKE YESTERDAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES CONTROLLING THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS
A WEAK TROUGH OF 1009MB AT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE
SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...BUT MOST HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KEWEENAW
AT 430AM. THESE WEAK SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH CONTINUE EAST
THIS MORNING..COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS. BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM THAT IDEA...LARGELY DUE TO THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
IT THROUGH TOO EARLY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO TREND DOWN
THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. SHIFTING THE FOCUS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL CWA...DO THINK THAT ISOLATED TO MAYBE EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND
LARGELY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE
TO VEERING WINDS FROM A SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE (EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO
WESTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES). BEST INSTABILITY IS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA IN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES (ML CAPE OF
NEARING 1000 J/KG)...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 500-750 OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. LIKE YESTERDAY...AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING
(DCAPES AHEAD OF MODEL CONVECTION SHOWS VALUES APPROACHING 800-1000
J/KG) WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE
ONE THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING TO LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS MATCHED
THAT IDEA...ALONG WITH NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES...SO HAVE SPREAD SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
OUT THERE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LAST
2 DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE MIXED LAYER WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES INDICATING GUSTS IN THE
LOW 20KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUST
FORECAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND BEING WITHIN A POCKET OF STRONGER 925MB WINDS.
THINK THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU TODAY AND HAVE PUSHED
SOME AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY.
THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS BEING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WILL PRODUCE HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY...AS THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE CONTINUED WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED.

FINALLY FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VARYING ON
THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE AND WITH LITTLE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE UPSTREAM...WON/T GO TOO HIGH ON POPS BUT WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS PAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEARBY. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A COOLING
TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS DEEP TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY 12Z TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO
WED AND THU. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND STALLS OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL REINFORCE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 311742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LIKE YESTERDAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES CONTROLLING THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS
A WEAK TROUGH OF 1009MB AT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE
SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...BUT MOST HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KEWEENAW
AT 430AM. THESE WEAK SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH CONTINUE EAST
THIS MORNING..COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS. BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM THAT IDEA...LARGELY DUE TO THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
IT THROUGH TOO EARLY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO TREND DOWN
THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. SHIFTING THE FOCUS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL CWA...DO THINK THAT ISOLATED TO MAYBE EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND
LARGELY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE
TO VEERING WINDS FROM A SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE (EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO
WESTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES). BEST INSTABILITY IS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA IN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES (ML CAPE OF
NEARING 1000 J/KG)...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 500-750 OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. LIKE YESTERDAY...AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING
(DCAPES AHEAD OF MODEL CONVECTION SHOWS VALUES APPROACHING 800-1000
J/KG) WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE
ONE THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING TO LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS MATCHED
THAT IDEA...ALONG WITH NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES...SO HAVE SPREAD SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
OUT THERE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LAST
2 DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE MIXED LAYER WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES INDICATING GUSTS IN THE
LOW 20KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUST
FORECAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND BEING WITHIN A POCKET OF STRONGER 925MB WINDS.
THINK THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU TODAY AND HAVE PUSHED
SOME AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY.
THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS BEING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WILL PRODUCE HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY...AS THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE CONTINUED WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED.

FINALLY FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VARYING ON
THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE AND WITH LITTLE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE UPSTREAM...WON/T GO TOO HIGH ON POPS BUT WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS PAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEARBY. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A COOLING
TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS DEEP TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY 12Z TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO
WED AND THU. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND STALLS OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL REINFORCE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 311742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LIKE YESTERDAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES CONTROLLING THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS
A WEAK TROUGH OF 1009MB AT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE
SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...BUT MOST HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KEWEENAW
AT 430AM. THESE WEAK SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH CONTINUE EAST
THIS MORNING..COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS. BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM THAT IDEA...LARGELY DUE TO THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
IT THROUGH TOO EARLY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO TREND DOWN
THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. SHIFTING THE FOCUS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL CWA...DO THINK THAT ISOLATED TO MAYBE EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND
LARGELY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE
TO VEERING WINDS FROM A SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE (EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO
WESTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES). BEST INSTABILITY IS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA IN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES (ML CAPE OF
NEARING 1000 J/KG)...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 500-750 OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. LIKE YESTERDAY...AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING
(DCAPES AHEAD OF MODEL CONVECTION SHOWS VALUES APPROACHING 800-1000
J/KG) WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE
ONE THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING TO LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS MATCHED
THAT IDEA...ALONG WITH NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES...SO HAVE SPREAD SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
OUT THERE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LAST
2 DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE MIXED LAYER WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES INDICATING GUSTS IN THE
LOW 20KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUST
FORECAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND BEING WITHIN A POCKET OF STRONGER 925MB WINDS.
THINK THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU TODAY AND HAVE PUSHED
SOME AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY.
THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS BEING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WILL PRODUCE HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY...AS THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE CONTINUED WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED.

FINALLY FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VARYING ON
THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE AND WITH LITTLE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE UPSTREAM...WON/T GO TOO HIGH ON POPS BUT WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS PAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEARBY. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A COOLING
TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS DEEP TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY 12Z TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO
WED AND THU. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND STALLS OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL REINFORCE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 311742
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LIKE YESTERDAY...A COUPLE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES CONTROLLING THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS
A WEAK TROUGH OF 1009MB AT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE WERE
SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...BUT MOST HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KEWEENAW
AT 430AM. THESE WEAK SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH CONTINUE EAST
THIS MORNING..COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA
AS DIURNAL HEATING DEVELOPS. BUT LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO BACK AWAY FROM THAT IDEA...LARGELY DUE TO THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH
IT THROUGH TOO EARLY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MAY NEED TO TREND DOWN
THE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE IN THAT AREA. SHIFTING THE FOCUS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL CWA...DO THINK THAT ISOLATED TO MAYBE EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. AND
LARGELY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DUE
TO VEERING WINDS FROM A SUBTLE LAKE BREEZE (EASTERN MARQUETTE INTO
WESTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN DELTA COUNTIES). BEST INSTABILITY IS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA IN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES (ML CAPE OF
NEARING 1000 J/KG)...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 500-750 OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. LIKE YESTERDAY...AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING
(DCAPES AHEAD OF MODEL CONVECTION SHOWS VALUES APPROACHING 800-1000
J/KG) WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR AND MAYBE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TRACK AS THE
ONE THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN U.P. AROUND
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF PEAK HEATING TO LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THINK MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS MATCHED
THAT IDEA...ALONG WITH NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES...SO HAVE SPREAD SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST FROM
THAT AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS
OUT THERE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LAST
2 DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE MIXED LAYER WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...WITH MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES INDICATING GUSTS IN THE
LOW 20KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUST
FORECAST. HAVE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND BEING WITHIN A POCKET OF STRONGER 925MB WINDS.
THINK THERE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU TODAY AND HAVE PUSHED
SOME AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY.
THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS BEING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WILL PRODUCE HIGHS A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY...AS THE
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE CONTINUED WINDY AND
DRY CONDITIONS...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED.

FINALLY FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE HINTS AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE VARYING ON
THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE AND WITH LITTLE NOTICEABLE
FEATURE UPSTREAM...WON/T GO TOO HIGH ON POPS BUT WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS PAST NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NAM SHOWS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NEARBY. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A COOLING
TREND. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. 12Z MON WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER ONTARIO INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS DEEP TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY 12Z TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO
WED AND THU. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH AND STALLS OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IS LEADING TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS AND UPWIND OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NEAR KSAW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MOVE WARD KIWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH THOSE
SITES SINCE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AT THOSE SITES IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL REINFORCE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF





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