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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
447 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W MN EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAINS NEARLY STEADY.

TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE 850MB
POCKET OF 4-5C AIR SLIDING FARTHER INTO THE THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT S FLOW AT THE SFC...THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
FAR W SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING MORE THAN A FEW MILES
INLAND FROM IWD THROUGH ONTONAGON AND RED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SFC
TEMPS TO RISE IN THE THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD COVER...AND THE POTENTIAL SHADING FROM THE
3-5KFT CEILINGS THAT SHOULD LINGER AND/OR REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS INLAND UPPER MI. EXPECT BRIEF INCREASED
WINDS...TOPPING OUT 10-15KTS AS THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE PUSHES INTO N CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. THE DRIEST AIR
LINGERS OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
25-30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. DROPPED TEMPS A BIT MORE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.26 AND 0.33IN /40-50
PERCENT OF NORMAL/.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AFTER QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MON NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THRU
THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS WHILE A
TROF DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL PLACE THE UPPER
LAKES IN THE PATH OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROF AND THEN
FORCED AROUND THE SE RIDGE. OVERALL LOOK OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST SEVERE STORMS OF THE YEAR AT SOME POINT MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...IT WILL BECOME MORE
SUMMERLIKE HERE WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS
ON THE RISE AS WELL...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

BEGINNING SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER A DRY
COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY SUN. INTERIOR LOCATIONS
SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND
70F. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOARD...KEEPING LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS COOL IN THE AFTN. DRY COLUMN AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO
DWPTS FALLING IN THE AFTN. UTILIZING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHT...DWPTS
AWAY FROM MARINE MODIFIED AIR SHOULD TUMBLE INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...RESULTING IN AFTN RH AS LOW AS AROUND 20PCT. FORTUNATELY...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...KEEPING FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK
FROM WHERE THEY COULD BE ON THIS KIND OF WARM/DRY DAY.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH THE AREA LATE.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF WILL CUT THRU THE RIDGE. THE
ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A SLOWER TIMING...BUT IS NOW
SHOWING A FASTER TREND...SUGGESTING PCPN COULD REACH KIWD LATE IN
THE AFTN. THE GEM/GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND SHOW PCPN SPREADING INTO
WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN. GIVEN TRENDS AND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
DEPICTING PCPN REACHING WRN UPPER...WILL BEGIN TRENDING FCST TOWARD
FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY BRING SCHC POPS INTO FAR
WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN FOR STARTERS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...
MAX TEMPS FOR MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD END UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUNDAY
HIGHS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS NEXT
WEEK WHILE A TROF DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS. WITH RIDGE OVER THE SE...
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROF WILL BE FORCED THRU THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE 2 OR
3 SHORTWAVES IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME THAT WILL AFFECT THE FCST
AREA WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AS ALWAYS...TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES WON`T BE CERTAIN UNTIL THEY GET INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...WITH ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY HIGHER CHC POPS. ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY FOR
EXTENSION OF THE SE RIDGE SHARPENING UP THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AROUND THU. IF SO...PCPN CHANCES MAY DIMINISH FOR A TIME THU/FRI.
WHILE THERE WON`T BE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS NEXT WEEK...
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE THAT ALL OF FCST AREA WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT
SOME POINT BTWN TUE AND FRI. ALONG WITH THE PCPN CHANCES...IT WILL
TURN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID DURING THE WEEK. THE
WARMTH/MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...AND ANY
SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SVR TSTMS OF THE
YEAR SOMETIME IN THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND VIS TO REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. A FEW TO MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR IWD AND SAW LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS...STRONGEST WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AT SAW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH BROAD PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDING NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
QUEBEC SUNDAY EVENING...AND PUSH OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MEMORIAL
DAY. A SLOW MOVING/DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


000
FXUS63 KMQT 250827
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
427 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W MN EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAINS NEARLY STEADY.

TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE 850MB
POCKET OF 4-5C AIR SLIDING FARTHER INTO THE THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT S FLOW AT THE SFC...THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
FAR W SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING MORE THAN A FEW MILES
INLAND FROM IWD THROUGH ONTONAGON AND RED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SFC
TEMPS TO RISE IN THE THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD COVER...AND THE POTENTIAL SHADING FROM THE
3-5KFT CEILINGS THAT SHOULD LINGER AND/OR REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS INLAND UPPER MI. EXPECT BRIEF INCREASED
WINDS...TOPPING OUT 10-15KTS AS THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE PUSHES INTO N CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. THE DRIEST AIR
LINGERS OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
25-30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. DROPPED TEMPS A BIT MORE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.26 AND 0.33IN /40-50
PERCENT OF NORMAL/.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AFTER QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MON NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THRU
THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS WHILE A
TROF DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL PLACE THE UPPER
LAKES IN THE PATH OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROF AND THEN
FORCED AROUND THE SE RIDGE. OVERALL LOOK OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST SEVERE STORMS OF THE YEAR AT SOME POINT MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...IT WILL BECOME MORE
SUMMERLIKE HERE WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS
ON THE RISE AS WELL...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

BEGINNING SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER A DRY
COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY SUN. INTERIOR LOCATIONS
SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND
70F. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOARD...KEEPING LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS COOL IN THE AFTN. DRY COLUMN AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO
DWPTS FALLING IN THE AFTN. UTILIZING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHT...DWPTS
AWAY FROM MARINE MODIFIED AIR SHOULD TUMBLE INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...RESULTING IN AFTN RH AS LOW AS AROUND 20PCT. FORTUNATELY...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...KEEPING FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK
FROM WHERE THEY COULD BE ON THIS KIND OF WARM/DRY DAY.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH THE AREA LATE.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF WILL CUT THRU THE RIDGE. THE
ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A SLOWER TIMING...BUT IS NOW
SHOWING A FASTER TREND...SUGGESTING PCPN COULD REACH KIWD LATE IN
THE AFTN. THE GEM/GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND SHOW PCPN SPREADING INTO
WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN. GIVEN TRENDS AND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
DEPICTING PCPN REACHING WRN UPPER...WILL BEGIN TRENDING FCST TOWARD
FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY BRING SCHC POPS INTO FAR
WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN FOR STARTERS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...
MAX TEMPS FOR MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD END UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUNDAY
HIGHS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS NEXT
WEEK WHILE A TROF DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS. WITH RIDGE OVER THE SE...
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROF WILL BE FORCED THRU THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE 2 OR
3 SHORTWAVES IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME THAT WILL AFFECT THE FCST
AREA WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AS ALWAYS...TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES WON`T BE CERTAIN UNTIL THEY GET INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...WITH ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY HIGHER CHC POPS. ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY FOR
EXTENSION OF THE SE RIDGE SHARPENING UP THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AROUND THU. IF SO...PCPN CHANCES MAY DIMINISH FOR A TIME THU/FRI.
WHILE THERE WON`T BE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS NEXT WEEK...
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE THAT ALL OF FCST AREA WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT
SOME POINT BTWN TUE AND FRI. ALONG WITH THE PCPN CHANCES...IT WILL
TURN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID DURING THE WEEK. THE
WARMTH/MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...AND ANY
SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SVR TSTMS OF THE
YEAR SOMETIME IN THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH BROAD PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDING NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
QUEBEC SUNDAY EVENING...AND PUSH OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MEMORIAL
DAY. A SLOW MOVING/DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF


000
FXUS63 KMQT 250734
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W MN EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAINS NEARLY STEADY.

TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE 850MB
POCKET OF 4-5C AIR SLIDING FARTHER INTO THE THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT S FLOW AT THE SFC...THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
FAR W SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING MORE THAN A FEW MILES
INLAND FROM IWD THROUGH ONTONAGON AND RED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SFC
TEMPS TO RISE IN THE THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD COVER...AND THE POTENTIAL SHADING FROM THE
3-5KFT CEILINGS THAT SHOULD LINGER AND/OR REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS INLAND UPPER MI. EXPECT BRIEF INCREASED
WINDS...TOPPING OUT 10-15KTS AS THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE PUSHES INTO N CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. THE DRIEST AIR
LINGERS OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
25-30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. DROPPED TEMPS A BIT MORE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.26 AND 0.33IN /40-50
PERCENT OF NORMAL/.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SUN AND MON...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-LVL AND SFC RDGG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START (SAT NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA)...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE IN THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON MON
OVER MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS SOME PCPN REACHING
INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF THE CWA ON MON BUT THIS SOLN LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AS REST OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LVL MOISTURE AND WAA
FORCING STAYING WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC-8H WARM FRONT.

TUE INTO FRI...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY GET INTO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING CONVECTION
WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER IN MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC POPS GOING
TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM TUE THRU FRI. SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE BEST CHC FALLING ON TUE-WED. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A DRIER
PERIOD WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MID LVL RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SO
HAVE LOWER CHC POPS REFLECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALSO
POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE FIRST SVR STORMS OF THE SEASON BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH BROAD PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDING NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
QUEBEC SUNDAY EVENING...AND PUSH OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MEMORIAL
DAY. A SLOW MOVING/DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF


000
FXUS63 KMQT 250720
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W MN EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAINS NEARLY STEADY.

TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE 850MB
POCKET OF 4-5C AIR SLIDING FARTHER INTO THE THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT S FLOW AT THE SFC...THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
FAR W SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING MORE THAN A FEW MILES
INLAND FROM IWD THROUGH ONTONAGON AND RED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SFC
TEMPS TO RISE IN THE THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD COVER...AND THE POTENTIAL SHADING FROM THE
3-5KFT CEILINGS THAT SHOULD LINGER AND/OR REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS INLAND UPPER MI. EXPECT BRIEF INCREASED
WINDS...TOPPING OUT 10-15KTS AS THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE PUSHES INTO N CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. THE DRIEST AIR
LINGERS OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
25-30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. DROPPED TEMPS A BIT MORE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.26 AND 0.33IN /40-50
PERCENT OF NORMAL/.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SUN AND MON...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-LVL AND SFC RDGG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START (SAT NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA)...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE IN THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON MON
OVER MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS SOME PCPN REACHING
INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF THE CWA ON MON BUT THIS SOLN LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AS REST OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LVL MOISTURE AND WAA
FORCING STAYING WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC-8H WARM FRONT.

TUE INTO FRI...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY GET INTO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING CONVECTION
WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER IN MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC POPS GOING
TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM TUE THRU FRI. SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE BEST CHC FALLING ON TUE-WED. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A DRIER
PERIOD WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MID LVL RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SO
HAVE LOWER CHC POPS REFLECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALSO
POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE FIRST SVR STORMS OF THE SEASON BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...20 KNOTS OR LESS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC


000
FXUS63 KMQT 250403
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1203 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA...WITH FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
500MB SHORT WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS OF 16Z THE SHORT WAVE COULD BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER NEAR THIS FEATURE.

MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER TONIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
SHOWN BY OVERLAYING 1000-500MB RH/OMEGA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
OVER THE EAST...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT MORE...INTO THE LOW
30S...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE
AS EXTENSIVE ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HOWEVER...WITH IRONWOOD BEING NEAR
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...NEAR THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SUN AND MON...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-LVL AND SFC RDGG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START (SAT NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA)...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE IN THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON MON
OVER MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS SOME PCPN REACHING
INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF THE CWA ON MON BUT THIS SOLN LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AS REST OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LVL MOISTURE AND WAA
FORCING STAYING WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC-8H WARM FRONT.

TUE INTO FRI...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY GET INTO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING CONVECTION
WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER IN MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC POPS GOING
TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM TUE THRU FRI. SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE BEST CHC FALLING ON TUE-WED. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A DRIER
PERIOD WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MID LVL RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SO
HAVE LOWER CHC POPS REFLECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALSO
POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE FIRST SVR STORMS OF THE SEASON BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...20 KNOTS OR LESS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC


000
FXUS63 KMQT 250021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
821 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA...WITH FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
500MB SHORT WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS OF 16Z THE SHORT WAVE COULD BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER NEAR THIS FEATURE.

MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER TONIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
SHOWN BY OVERLAYING 1000-500MB RH/OMEGA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
OVER THE EAST...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT MORE...INTO THE LOW
30S...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE
AS EXTENSIVE ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HOWEVER...WITH IRONWOOD BEING NEAR
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...NEAR THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SUN AND MON...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-LVL AND SFC RDGG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START (SAT NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA)...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE IN THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON MON
OVER MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS SOME PCPN REACHING
INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF THE CWA ON MON BUT THIS SOLN LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AS REST OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LVL MOISTURE AND WAA
FORCING STAYING WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC-8H WARM FRONT.

TUE INTO FRI...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY GET INTO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING CONVECTION
WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER IN MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC POPS GOING
TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM TUE THRU FRI. SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE BEST CHC FALLING ON TUE-WED. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A DRIER
PERIOD WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MID LVL RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SO
HAVE LOWER CHC POPS REFLECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALSO
POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE FIRST SVR STORMS OF THE SEASON BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WITH DRY LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GENERALL LIGHT...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...20 KNOTS OR LESS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KEC


000
FXUS63 KMQT 242025
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA...WITH FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST HALF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
500MB SHORT WAVE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS OF 16Z THE SHORT WAVE COULD BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL
QUEBEC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER NEAR THIS FEATURE.

MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER TONIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE/FORCING IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA AS
SHOWN BY OVERLAYING 1000-500MB RH/OMEGA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
OVER THE EAST...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A BIT MORE...INTO THE LOW
30S...AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE
AS EXTENSIVE ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST
DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HOWEVER...WITH IRONWOOD BEING NEAR
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...NEAR THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SUN AND MON...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-LVL AND SFC RDGG CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START (SAT NIGHT TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND ERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA)...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY. WITH WEAK
PRES GRADIENTS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE IN THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON MON
OVER MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH
THE MID-UPR LVL RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM EVEN SHOWS SOME PCPN REACHING
INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF THE CWA ON MON BUT THIS SOLN LOOKS TO BE
AN OUTLIER AS REST OF THE MODELS SHOW BEST DEEP LVL MOISTURE AND WAA
FORCING STAYING WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO SFC-8H WARM FRONT.

TUE INTO FRI...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY GET INTO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS...AND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORCED OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AND GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING ABV NORMAL BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING CONVECTION
WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER IN MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN HIGHER CHC POPS GOING
TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FROM TUE THRU FRI. SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE THROUGH FRI...WITH
THE BEST CHC FALLING ON TUE-WED. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLY A DRIER
PERIOD WED NIGHT INTO THU AS MID LVL RDG AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA SO
HAVE LOWER CHC POPS REFLECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALSO
POSSIBLY LEAD TO THE FIRST SVR STORMS OF THE SEASON BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE IWD AND CMX TAF SITES...HOWEVER...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHES FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...20 KNOTS OR LESS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


000
FXUS63 KMQT 241720
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE MID CLOUDS AGAIN STREAMING S FROM CANADA...THE
RESULT THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT /NO SNOW EXPECTED/. A
3KFT DECK AS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO CROSS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...BUT
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE MUCH EAST OF DRUMMOND ISLAND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT SHOULDN/T NEED TO INCLUDE ANYTHING ABOVE
10 PERCENT AROUND OR WEST OF LUCE COUNTY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT WARMER TODAY...BUT STILL AVERAGING 10F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE COOLER AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PERSIST. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH ITS PRECIP FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE 06Z HAS REVERSED THIS TREND WITH A CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED. DID KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN OUR COOL NW FLOW OVER
THE WEST HALF. TEMPERATURES AGAIN COULD COOL DOWN AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI...WHERE PW
VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.33IN /OR 45-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL/.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR W SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS TROF
CURRENTLY EXTENDING S THRU THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY SHIFTS E WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO THE
NW TERRITORIES SLOWLY MOVES E TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MANITOBA. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES W SAT AND THEN
POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA LATE MEMORIAL DAY...AGAIN OVER THE W. COOL WEATHER
(BELOW NORMAL TEMPS) TO START THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS
TROF SHIFTS E. TEMPS SHOULD BE UP NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE IN
THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
HEADING THRU THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY
GET INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE
CONUS...PLACING UPPER LAKES IN THE PATH OF SHORTWAVES FORCED AROUND
THE RIDGE. OVERALL LOOK OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE OUR
FIRST SEVERE STORMS OF THE YEAR AT SOME POINT MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...IT WILL BECOME MORE SUMMERLIKE
HERE WITH TEMPS PROBABLY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS ON THE
RISE AS WELL...LEADING TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING SAT...UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE ERN
TROF...PLACING RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/FAR WRN GREAT LAKES. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORCE SOME -SHRA. WITH MAIN AREA OF
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STREAKING SE TO THE W OF HERE...
PCPN SHOULD REMAIN W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH WEAKER
SECONDARY BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT HIGHER LEVELS STREAKING
SE ACROSS UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES
OVER THE W. GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING TO THE W AND LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW
THAT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DRIER LOW-LEVELS...PLAN TO KEEP FCST DRY
ON SAT. THE SECONDARY AREA OF FGEN WILL LIKELY AID RATHER EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY THINNER FARTHER E. IN FACT...SAT SHOULD END UP MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER THE E WITH ONLY SOME INLAND CU.

SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE W SAT NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE
MAY. LIGHTEST WINDS AND LEAST CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL AND
E...AND WILL PAINT LOWEST MINS IN THAT AREA. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
FROST IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. AFTER A
CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM A
WRN CONUS TROF WILL ERODE THE RIDGE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW STRONGER
SHORTWAVES TRACKING THRU THE RIDGE...BRINGING THREAT FOR SOME SHRA
MON OR MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...OPTED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS W...THE
E SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE. FOR MON HIGH
TEMPS...SHOULD BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM SUN HIGHS
AS 850MB TEMPS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...RESULTING IN INTERIOR MAX
TEMPS AROUND 70F.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL
WEAKEN. OBVIOUSLY...CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN THE FCST. FOR NOW...LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM TUE THRU THU. CERTAINLY WON`T SEE LONG DURATION PCPN
EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME
PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE/WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE IWD AND CMX TAF SITES...HOWEVER...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF
THE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TOWARD TUESDAY /MAINLY LESS THAN 25KTS/ AS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KF


000
FXUS63 KMQT 240920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE MID CLOUDS AGAIN STREAMING S FROM CANADA...THE
RESULT THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT /NO SNOW EXPECTED/. A
3KFT DECK AS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO CROSS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...BUT
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE MUCH EAST OF DRUMMOND ISLAND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT SHOULDN/T NEED TO INCLUDE ANYTHING ABOVE
10 PERCENT AROUND OR WEST OF LUCE COUNTY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT WARMER TODAY...BUT STILL AVERAGING 10F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE COOLER AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PERSIST. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH ITS PRECIP FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE 06Z HAS REVERSED THIS TREND WITH A CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED. DID KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN OUR COOL NW FLOW OVER
THE WEST HALF. TEMPERATURES AGAIN COULD COOL DOWN AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI...WHERE PW
VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.33IN /OR 45-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL/.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR W SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS TROF
CURRENTLY EXTENDING S THRU THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY SHIFTS E WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO THE
NW TERRITORIES SLOWLY MOVES E TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MANITOBA. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES W SAT AND THEN
POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA LATE MEMORIAL DAY...AGAIN OVER THE W. COOL WEATHER
(BELOW NORMAL TEMPS) TO START THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS
TROF SHIFTS E. TEMPS SHOULD BE UP NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE IN
THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
HEADING THRU THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY
GET INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE
CONUS...PLACING UPPER LAKES IN THE PATH OF SHORTWAVES FORCED AROUND
THE RIDGE. OVERALL LOOK OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE OUR
FIRST SEVERE STORMS OF THE YEAR AT SOME POINT MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...IT WILL BECOME MORE SUMMERLIKE
HERE WITH TEMPS PROBABLY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS ON THE
RISE AS WELL...LEADING TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING SAT...UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE ERN
TROF...PLACING RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/FAR WRN GREAT LAKES. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORCE SOME -SHRA. WITH MAIN AREA OF
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STREAKING SE TO THE W OF HERE...
PCPN SHOULD REMAIN W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH WEAKER
SECONDARY BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT HIGHER LEVELS STREAKING
SE ACROSS UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES
OVER THE W. GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING TO THE W AND LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW
THAT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DRIER LOW-LEVELS...PLAN TO KEEP FCST DRY
ON SAT. THE SECONDARY AREA OF FGEN WILL LIKELY AID RATHER EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY THINNER FARTHER E. IN FACT...SAT SHOULD END UP MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER THE E WITH ONLY SOME INLAND CU.

SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE W SAT NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE
MAY. LIGHTEST WINDS AND LEAST CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL AND
E...AND WILL PAINT LOWEST MINS IN THAT AREA. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
FROST IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. AFTER A
CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM A
WRN CONUS TROF WILL ERODE THE RIDGE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW STRONGER
SHORTWAVES TRACKING THRU THE RIDGE...BRINGING THREAT FOR SOME SHRA
MON OR MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...OPTED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS W...THE
E SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE. FOR MON HIGH
TEMPS...SHOULD BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM SUN HIGHS
AS 850MB TEMPS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...RESULTING IN INTERIOR MAX
TEMPS AROUND 70F.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL
WEAKEN. OBVIOUSLY...CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN THE FCST. FOR NOW...LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM TUE THRU THU. CERTAINLY WON`T SEE LONG DURATION PCPN
EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME
PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE/WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES UPPER MICHIGAN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF
THE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TOWARD TUESDAY /MAINLY LESS THAN 25KTS/ AS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF


000
FXUS63 KMQT 240828
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE MID CLOUDS AGAIN STREAMING S FROM CANADA...THE
RESULT THIS MORNING WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT /NO SNOW EXPECTED/. A
3KFT DECK AS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO CROSS INTO EASTERN UPPER MI...BUT
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE MUCH EAST OF DRUMMOND ISLAND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT SHOULDN/T NEED TO INCLUDE ANYTHING ABOVE
10 PERCENT AROUND OR WEST OF LUCE COUNTY.

EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A BIT WARMER TODAY...BUT STILL AVERAGING 10F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST WHERE COOLER AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PERSIST. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH ITS PRECIP FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE 06Z HAS REVERSED THIS TREND WITH A CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED. DID KEEP A FEW CLOUDS IN OUR COOL NW FLOW OVER
THE WEST HALF. TEMPERATURES AGAIN COULD COOL DOWN AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI...WHERE PW
VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0.33IN /OR 45-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL/.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR W SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE WARMER...WITH A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE RULE THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS TROF
CURRENTLY EXTENDING S THRU THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY SHIFTS E WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE WRN PLAINS TO THE
NW TERRITORIES SLOWLY MOVES E TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MANITOBA. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO EXAMINE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES W SAT AND THEN
POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA LATE MEMORIAL DAY...AGAIN OVER THE W. COOL WEATHER
(BELOW NORMAL TEMPS) TO START THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS
TROF SHIFTS E. TEMPS SHOULD BE UP NEAR MAY NORMALS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LAKE BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE IN
THE AFTN...SO AFTN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE GREAT LAKES.
HEADING THRU THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LAKES MAY
GET INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR TSTMS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE
CONUS...PLACING UPPER LAKES IN THE PATH OF SHORTWAVES FORCED AROUND
THE RIDGE. OVERALL LOOK OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE OUR
FIRST SEVERE STORMS OF THE YEAR AT SOME POINT MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.
WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...IT WILL BECOME MORE SUMMERLIKE
HERE WITH TEMPS PROBABLY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS ON THE
RISE AS WELL...LEADING TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

BEGINNING SAT...UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE ERN
TROF...PLACING RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/FAR WRN GREAT LAKES. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FORCE SOME -SHRA. WITH MAIN AREA OF
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STREAKING SE TO THE W OF HERE...
PCPN SHOULD REMAIN W OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE IS A MUCH WEAKER
SECONDARY BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT HIGHER LEVELS STREAKING
SE ACROSS UPPER MI...AND THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES
OVER THE W. GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING TO THE W AND LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW
THAT SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DRIER LOW-LEVELS...PLAN TO KEEP FCST DRY
ON SAT. THE SECONDARY AREA OF FGEN WILL LIKELY AID RATHER EXTENSIVE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING SE ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASINGLY THINNER FARTHER E. IN FACT...SAT SHOULD END UP MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER THE E WITH ONLY SOME INLAND CU.

SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE W SAT NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE
MAY. LIGHTEST WINDS AND LEAST CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL AND
E...AND WILL PAINT LOWEST MINS IN THAT AREA. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
FROST IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S. AFTER A
CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUN UNDER A DRY COLUMN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM A
WRN CONUS TROF WILL ERODE THE RIDGE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW STRONGER
SHORTWAVES TRACKING THRU THE RIDGE...BRINGING THREAT FOR SOME SHRA
MON OR MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...OPTED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY IN MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER FOR UPPER MI ON
MEMORIAL DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS W...THE
E SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE. FOR MON HIGH
TEMPS...SHOULD BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM SUN HIGHS
AS 850MB TEMPS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...RESULTING IN INTERIOR MAX
TEMPS AROUND 70F.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL
WEAKEN. OBVIOUSLY...CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN THE FCST. FOR NOW...LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FROM TUE THRU THU. CERTAINLY WON`T SEE LONG DURATION PCPN
EVENTS...BUT THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME
PCPN AT SOME POINT TUE/WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF
THE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TOWARD TUESDAY /MAINLY LESS THAN 25KTS/ AS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF


000
FXUS63 KMQT 240701
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR GREATER BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 17Z SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER OVER UPPER MI IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARED TO BE DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN H850 AND THE LAKE SURFACE
RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 C. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
WERE INDICATING AT LEAST A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR -SHSN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR ALLOWED THEM TO SLOWLY RISE...THEREFORE
DELAYED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
SUN FINALLY PEEKS THROUGH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND 17Z ARE SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO
25 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED...AS LOW PRESSURE
IS SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL ALLOW
INCREASED WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE AREA
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS...COUPLED WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT OF NORMAL...INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
U.P...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LOOK FROM MODELS FOR LARGER SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. TROUGH BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
UPPER LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SLOWLY MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND BY MEMORIAL DAY WHILE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S INTO THE
50S NEAR THE LAKES. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...LAKE
BREEZES MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. PRETTY LOCALIZED STRONGER
WINDS THOUGH. STILL APPEARS TO BE SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES
IN THE FAR WEST CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ON
22 MAY...NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING QPF INTO WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. EVEN THIS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THOUGH. EXPECT DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET STREAK NORTHERN ONTARIO TO
CAROLINAS TO INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER WEST...BUT WILL KEEP RUNNING
WITH DRY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOK VERY LOW...BUT
CANNOT COUNT OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...WEATHER SHOULD STAY
DRY BUT COOL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY...
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME
WHICH COULD OFFSET POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

PATTERN CHANGE STARTS UP TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES FARTHER
EAST. RESULT IS TRANSITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN HOW QUICK/EAST TO BRING QPF ON TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FLATTENS OUT BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 THETA-E
RIDGE/H85 DWPNT PUSHING PAST +12C AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 TROUGH AND
H85 JET AIMED INTO UPR LAKES SUPPORTS EXPANDING POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS POPS ARE IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE NOW WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SFC DWPNT RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHRA/TSRA AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT GET TOO HOT...BUT WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS COULD REACH THE
80 DEGREE MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY EDGE
EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF
THE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY 20KTS OR LESS. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TOWARD TUESDAY /MAINLY LESS THAN 25KTS/ AS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND
ORGANIZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF


000
FXUS63 KMQT 240409
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1209 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR GREATER BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 17Z SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER OVER UPPER MI IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARED TO BE DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN H850 AND THE LAKE SURFACE
RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 C. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
WERE INDICATING AT LEAST A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR -SHSN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR ALLOWED THEM TO SLOWLY RISE...THEREFORE
DELAYED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
SUN FINALLY PEEKS THROUGH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND 17Z ARE SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO
25 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED...AS LOW PRESSURE
IS SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL ALLOW
INCREASED WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE AREA
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS...COUPLED WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT OF NORMAL...INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
U.P...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LOOK FROM MODELS FOR LARGER SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. TROUGH BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
UPPER LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SLOWLY MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND BY MEMORIAL DAY WHILE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S INTO THE
50S NEAR THE LAKES. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...LAKE
BREEZES MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. PRETTY LOCALIZED STRONGER
WINDS THOUGH. STILL APPEARS TO BE SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES
IN THE FAR WEST CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ON
22 MAY...NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING QPF INTO WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. EVEN THIS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THOUGH. EXPECT DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET STREAK NORTHERN ONTARIO TO
CAROLINAS TO INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER WEST...BUT WILL KEEP RUNNING
WITH DRY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOK VERY LOW...BUT
CANNOT COUNT OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...WEATHER SHOULD STAY
DRY BUT COOL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY...
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME
WHICH COULD OFFSET POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

PATTERN CHANGE STARTS UP TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES FARTHER
EAST. RESULT IS TRANSITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN HOW QUICK/EAST TO BRING QPF ON TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FLATTENS OUT BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 THETA-E
RIDGE/H85 DWPNT PUSHING PAST +12C AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 TROUGH AND
H85 JET AIMED INTO UPR LAKES SUPPORTS EXPANDING POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS POPS ARE IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE NOW WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SFC DWPNT RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHRA/TSRA AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT GET TOO HOT...BUT WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS COULD REACH THE
80 DEGREE MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC


000
FXUS63 KMQT 232325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR GREATER BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 17Z SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER OVER UPPER MI IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARED TO BE DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN H850 AND THE LAKE SURFACE
RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 C. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
WERE INDICATING AT LEAST A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR -SHSN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR ALLOWED THEM TO SLOWLY RISE...THEREFORE
DELAYED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
SUN FINALLY PEEKS THROUGH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND 17Z ARE SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO
25 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED...AS LOW PRESSURE
IS SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL ALLOW
INCREASED WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE AREA
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS...COUPLED WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT OF NORMAL...INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
U.P...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LOOK FROM MODELS FOR LARGER SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. TROUGH BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
UPPER LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SLOWLY MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND BY MEMORIAL DAY WHILE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S INTO THE
50S NEAR THE LAKES. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...LAKE
BREEZES MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. PRETTY LOCALIZED STRONGER
WINDS THOUGH. STILL APPEARS TO BE SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES
IN THE FAR WEST CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ON
22 MAY...NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING QPF INTO WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. EVEN THIS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THOUGH. EXPECT DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET STREAK NORTHERN ONTARIO TO
CAROLINAS TO INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER WEST...BUT WILL KEEP RUNNING
WITH DRY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOK VERY LOW...BUT
CANNOT COUNT OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...WEATHER SHOULD STAY
DRY BUT COOL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY...
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME
WHICH COULD OFFSET POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

PATTERN CHANGE STARTS UP TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES FARTHER
EAST. RESULT IS TRANSITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN HOW QUICK/EAST TO BRING QPF ON TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FLATTENS OUT BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 THETA-E
RIDGE/H85 DWPNT PUSHING PAST +12C AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 TROUGH AND
H85 JET AIMED INTO UPR LAKES SUPPORTS EXPANDING POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS POPS ARE IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE NOW WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SFC DWPNT RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHRA/TSRA AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT GET TOO HOT...BUT WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS COULD REACH THE
80 DEGREE MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE COMBINATION OF WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC HI
PRES AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO
DIMINISH EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THEN VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WL
PREVAIL WITH THE DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KEC


000
FXUS63 KMQT 231956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES OR GREATER BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 17Z SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER OVER UPPER MI IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARED TO BE DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN H850 AND THE LAKE SURFACE
RUNNING AROUND 8 TO 10 C. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
WERE INDICATING AT LEAST A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR -SHSN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR ALLOWED THEM TO SLOWLY RISE...THEREFORE
DELAYED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
SUN FINALLY PEEKS THROUGH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND 17Z ARE SHOWING WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO
25 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED...AS LOW PRESSURE
IS SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL ALLOW
INCREASED WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE INTO THE AREA
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS...COUPLED WITH PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT OF NORMAL...INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
U.P...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LOOK FROM MODELS FOR LARGER SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. TROUGH BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
UPPER LAKES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SLOWLY MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND BY MEMORIAL DAY WHILE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
HUDSON BAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES. PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DAYTIME HIGHS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MAY.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S INTO THE
50S NEAR THE LAKES. SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD...LAKE
BREEZES MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. PRETTY LOCALIZED STRONGER
WINDS THOUGH. STILL APPEARS TO BE SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES
IN THE FAR WEST CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ON
22 MAY...NAM WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING QPF INTO WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN. EVEN THIS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF THOUGH. EXPECT DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET STREAK NORTHERN ONTARIO TO
CAROLINAS TO INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER WEST...BUT WILL KEEP RUNNING
WITH DRY FORECAST. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOK VERY LOW...BUT
CANNOT COUNT OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...WEATHER SHOULD STAY
DRY BUT COOL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY...
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THIS TIME
WHICH COULD OFFSET POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

PATTERN CHANGE STARTS UP TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES FARTHER
EAST. RESULT IS TRANSITION TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN HOW QUICK/EAST TO BRING QPF ON TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FLATTENS OUT BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SLIDE
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 THETA-E
RIDGE/H85 DWPNT PUSHING PAST +12C AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 TROUGH AND
H85 JET AIMED INTO UPR LAKES SUPPORTS EXPANDING POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE CWA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS POPS ARE IN THE LOW
CHANCE RANGE NOW WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE UPPER LAKES AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SFC DWPNT RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WITH THE CLOUDS
AND SHRA/TSRA AROUND TEMPS WILL NOT GET TOO HOT...BUT WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS COULD REACH THE
80 DEGREE MARK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500-2000FT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES THIS TAF
PERIOD.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH ROUGHLY 20-21Z BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING AT
EACH TAF SITE. THIS TREND HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR EACH TAF
SITE. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THEY WILL HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


000
FXUS63 KMQT 231924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

INCREASING CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...WITH THE MID TO LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EVEN THE SMALL SCALE/LOCAL FCST MODELS DID NOT PICK THIS
UP WELL. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THEM
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WE HAVE BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI...THAT HAVE BEEN RISING WITH OUR STEADY RAINS. THE RAIN CONTINUES
TO SHIFT TO OUR SE...AS OF 830Z SE OF A LINE FROM PEMBINE AND POWERS
TO GRAND MARAIS. EXPECT ALL BUT A LITTLE LINGERING DZ BY 12Z OVER
THE FAR EAST.

THE MAIN THREATS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE GUSTY N-NNW
WINDS TODAY AND FROST/FREEZE OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO S QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
THE STRONGER WINDS TO DIMINISH W TO E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

IF WE DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH RAIN AS WE HAVE HAD SINCE MAY 19TH...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE GOING TO BE A BIT WARMER...TODAY MAY HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERED A FIRE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE IN THE 50S WELL INLAND. PW VALUES IN ALL THE COLD
DRY AIR WILL FALL TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL /OR AROUND
0.2IN/ OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z TODAY...WITH RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE OVER THE TYPICAL COOL
LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. UNDER A STRONG
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S.
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SHORES TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL
BE MORE COMMON. PW VALUES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY...UP TO AROUND 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 12Z /OR AROUND 0.3IN/. IT/S THE PERFECT TIME TO
REMEMBER THAT NORMAL LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE COMMON. WE WILL OFFICIALLY
BEGIN OUR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM ON MAY 27TH. UNTIL THEN THE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S.
WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z FRI. TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN U.S. MOVES SLOWLY THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD 12Z SAT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS AND THIS REMAINS INTO 12Z SUN.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS KEEP TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
PCPN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
THINKING IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
IN PLACE AND DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THINK THE MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE WITH
THEIR MOISTURE AND WITH THE JET STREAK NEAR THE AREA...WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INSTEAD. DID GO SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SATURDAY BASED ON MIXING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SFC. AT BEST...THIS GIVES ME LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM GOING FORECAST
BASED ON THIS AND ALSO THE COLD START TO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS. OTHER THAN THAT...KEPT FORECAST DRY AND KEPT SOME FROST IN
THE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NOT DONE YET
WITH GROWING SEASON NOT REALLY STARTING UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW AND ONE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED LOW THERE AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
12Z TUE INTO 12Z WED EXCEPT THAT A SFC WARM FRONT HEADS SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL GOING TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED.
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN START TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500-2000FT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES THIS TAF
PERIOD.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH ROUGHLY 20-21Z BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING AT
EACH TAF SITE. THIS TREND HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR EACH TAF
SITE. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THEY WILL HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING FOG TO
DISSIPATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON
LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...07


000
FXUS63 KMQT 231157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
757 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

INCREASING CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...WITH THE MID TO LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EVEN THE SMALL SCALE/LOCAL FCST MODELS DID NOT PICK THIS
UP WELL. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THEM
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WE HAVE BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI...THAT HAVE BEEN RISING WITH OUR STEADY RAINS. THE RAIN CONTINUES
TO SHIFT TO OUR SE...AS OF 830Z SE OF A LINE FROM PEMBINE AND POWERS
TO GRAND MARAIS. EXPECT ALL BUT A LITTLE LINGERING DZ BY 12Z OVER
THE FAR EAST.

THE MAIN THREATS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE GUSTY N-NNW
WINDS TODAY AND FROST/FREEZE OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO S QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
THE STRONGER WINDS TO DIMINISH W TO E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

IF WE DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH RAIN AS WE HAVE HAD SINCE MAY 19TH...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE GOING TO BE A BIT WARMER...TODAY MAY HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERED A FIRE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE IN THE 50S WELL INLAND. PW VALUES IN ALL THE COLD
DRY AIR WILL FALL TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL /OR AROUND
0.2IN/ OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z TODAY...WITH RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE OVER THE TYPICAL COOL
LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. UNDER A STRONG
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S.
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SHORES TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL
BE MORE COMMON. PW VALUES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY...UP TO AROUND 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 12Z /OR AROUND 0.3IN/. IT/S THE PERFECT TIME TO
REMEMBER THAT NORMAL LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE COMMON. WE WILL OFFICIALLY
BEGIN OUR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM ON MAY 27TH. UNTIL THEN THE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S.
WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z FRI. TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN U.S. MOVES SLOWLY THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD 12Z SAT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS AND THIS REMAINS INTO 12Z SUN.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS KEEP TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
PCPN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
THINKING IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
IN PLACE AND DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THINK THE MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE WITH
THEIR MOISTURE AND WITH THE JET STREAK NEAR THE AREA...WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INSTEAD. DID GO SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SATURDAY BASED ON MIXING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SFC. AT BEST...THIS GIVES ME LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM GOING FORECAST
BASED ON THIS AND ALSO THE COLD START TO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS. OTHER THAN THAT...KEPT FORECAST DRY AND KEPT SOME FROST IN
THE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NOT DONE YET
WITH GROWING SEASON NOT REALLY STARTING UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW AND ONE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED LOW THERE AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
12Z TUE INTO 12Z WED EXCEPT THAT A SFC WARM FRONT HEADS SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL GOING TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED.
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN START TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS GUSTING 20-30KTS WILL DIMINISH WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC...AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20KTS OR
GREATER AT SAW DURING THE ENTIRE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING FOG TO
DISSIPATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON
LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...07


000
FXUS63 KMQT 231129
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
729 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

INCREASING CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...WITH THE MID TO LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EVEN THE SMALL SCALE/LOCAL FCST MODELS DID NOT PICK THIS
UP WELL. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THEM
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WE HAVE BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI...THAT HAVE BEEN RISING WITH OUR STEADY RAINS. THE RAIN CONTINUES
TO SHIFT TO OUR SE...AS OF 830Z SE OF A LINE FROM PEMBINE AND POWERS
TO GRAND MARAIS. EXPECT ALL BUT A LITTLE LINGERING DZ BY 12Z OVER
THE FAR EAST.

THE MAIN THREATS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE GUSTY N-NNW
WINDS TODAY AND FROST/FREEZE OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO S QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
THE STRONGER WINDS TO DIMINISH W TO E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

IF WE DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH RAIN AS WE HAVE HAD SINCE MAY 19TH...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE GOING TO BE A BIT WARMER...TODAY MAY HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERED A FIRE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE IN THE 50S WELL INLAND. PW VALUES IN ALL THE COLD
DRY AIR WILL FALL TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL /OR AROUND
0.2IN/ OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z TODAY...WITH RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE OVER THE TYPICAL COOL
LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. UNDER A STRONG
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S.
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SHORES TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL
BE MORE COMMON. PW VALUES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY...UP TO AROUND 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 12Z /OR AROUND 0.3IN/. IT/S THE PERFECT TIME TO
REMEMBER THAT NORMAL LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE COMMON. WE WILL OFFICIALLY
BEGIN OUR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM ON MAY 27TH. UNTIL THEN THE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S.
WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z FRI. TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN U.S. MOVES SLOWLY THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD 12Z SAT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS AND THIS REMAINS INTO 12Z SUN.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS KEEP TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
PCPN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
THINKING IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
IN PLACE AND DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THINK THE MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE WITH
THEIR MOISTURE AND WITH THE JET STREAK NEAR THE AREA...WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INSTEAD. DID GO SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SATURDAY BASED ON MIXING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SFC. AT BEST...THIS GIVES ME LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM GOING FORECAST
BASED ON THIS AND ALSO THE COLD START TO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS. OTHER THAN THAT...KEPT FORECAST DRY AND KEPT SOME FROST IN
THE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NOT DONE YET
WITH GROWING SEASON NOT REALLY STARTING UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW AND ONE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED LOW THERE AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
12Z TUE INTO 12Z WED EXCEPT THAT A SFC WARM FRONT HEADS SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL GOING TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED.
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN START TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A STEADY NNE WIND BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN S CENTRAL CANADA AND LOW PRES
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER
UPPER MI. THE STRONG UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MAY MAINTAIN SCT-BKN
CLOUDS NEAR THE MVFR THRESHOLD TIL LATE TONIGHT. UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY NNE WINDS AT CMX/SAW THROUGH THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING FOG TO
DISSIPATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON
LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07


000
FXUS63 KMQT 230857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WE HAVE BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI...THAT HAVE BEEN RISING WITH OUR STEADY RAINS. THE RAIN CONTINUES
TO SHIFT TO OUR SE...AS OF 830Z SE OF A LINE FROM PEMBINE AND POWERS
TO GRAND MARAIS. EXPECT ALL BUT A LITTLE LINGERING DZ BY 12Z OVER
THE FAR EAST.

THE MAIN THREATS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE GUSTY N-NNW
WINDS TODAY AND FROST/FREEZE OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO S QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
THE STRONGER WINDS TO DIMINISH W TO E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

IF WE DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH RAIN AS WE HAVE HAD SINCE MAY 19TH...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE GOING TO BE A BIT WARMER...TODAY MAY HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERED A FIRE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE IN THE 50S WELL INLAND. PW VALUES IN ALL THE COLD
DRY AIR WILL FALL TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL /OR AROUND
0.2IN/ OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z TODAY...WITH RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE OVER THE TYPICAL COOL
LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. UNDER A STRONG
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S.
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SHORES TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL
BE MORE COMMON. PW VALUES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY...UP TO AROUND 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 12Z /OR AROUND 0.3IN/. IT/S THE PERFECT TIME TO
REMEMBER THAT NORMAL LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE COMMON. WE WILL OFFICIALLY
BEGIN OUR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM ON MAY 27TH. UNTIL THEN THE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S.
WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z FRI. TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN U.S. MOVES SLOWLY THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD 12Z SAT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS AND THIS REMAINS INTO 12Z SUN.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS KEEP TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
PCPN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
THINKING IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
IN PLACE AND DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THINK THE MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE WITH
THEIR MOISTURE AND WITH THE JET STREAK NEAR THE AREA...WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INSTEAD. DID GO SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SATURDAY BASED ON MIXING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SFC. AT BEST...THIS GIVES ME LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM GOING FORECAST
BASED ON THIS AND ALSO THE COLD START TO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS. OTHER THAN THAT...KEPT FORECAST DRY AND KEPT SOME FROST IN
THE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NOT DONE YET
WITH GROWING SEASON NOT REALLY STARTING UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW AND ONE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED LOW THERE AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
12Z TUE INTO 12Z WED EXCEPT THAT A SFC WARM FRONT HEADS SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL GOING TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED.
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN START TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A STEADY NNE WIND BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN S CENTRAL CANADA AND LOW PRES
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER
UPPER MI. THE STRONG UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MAY MAINTAIN SCT-BKN
CLOUDS NEAR THE MVFR THRESHOLD TIL LATE TONIGHT. UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY NNE WINDS AT CMX/SAW THROUGH THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING FOG TO
DISSIPATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON
LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07


000
FXUS63 KMQT 230402
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1202 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLUGGISH UPR LO
OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BTWN RDG OFF THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER
RDG AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. BAND OF -SHRA STRETCHING FM NE MN INTO
THE WRN CWA UNDER BAND OF H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IS
HOLDING FIRM EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRY AIR IS SURGING INTO NE MN/WRN LK
SUP IN STEADY NE FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA AND SFC LO PRES
IN THE LOWER LKS. ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE SE
HALF OF WI/S HALF OF LK MI IS EXPANDING TO THE N AS SHRTWV OVER
IL/LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX IS MOVING N OF THE
CLOSED LO. OTRW...LO CLDS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER UPR MI
WITH CHILLY NE WIND OFF LK SUP. SOME FOG HAS PERSISTED AS WELL NEAR
LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE LLVL DRY AIR HAS NOT YET
ARRIVED.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE HOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FM THE N WL IMPACT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FGEN OVER THE WRN
ZNS AND AREA OF SHRA MOVING N TOWARD THE SE COUNTIES.

TNGT...UPR LO NOW OVER SE MN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ESE...AND NAM SHOWS
BAND OF H85-7 FGEN/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE SEWD
ACRS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...H7-3 QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SUPPORTING UPR JET
LIFTING NNEWD WL IMPACT MAINLY THE SE COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE THESE
DYNAMICS MAY INTERACT FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG OVER THE
SE ZNS. SO HIER POPS IN THIS AREA AT THAT TIME SEEM APPROPRIATE. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE NW CWA UNDER STRONGER NNE
FLOW WL END ANY LINGERING PCPN AS FGEN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SE. THE
PCPN WL END EVEN OVER THE SE ZNS AFT 06Z FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND EXIT OF THE DYNAMICS WL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLRG...BUT THE UPSLOPE NNE FLOW MAY SLOW THE PROCESS OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.

THU...HI PRES IS FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DRY WX.
ALTHOUGH LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS ARND 0C THRU 00Z
WOULD INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DIURNAL CU/SC AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
OVER LAND...DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS AS WELL AS LLVL ACYC/
DIFFLUENT FLOW WL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES. IF THERE IS ANY UPSLOPE SC
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP...THIS CLD WL MIX OUT EARLY. THE
FCST H85 TEMPS AND MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT STIFF NNE WIND OFF LK
SUP WL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE BIG LAKE. THESE
STRONGER NE WINDS WL DIMINISH OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH THE APRCH
OF THE HI CENTER/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING AND RATHER STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE LONG TERM. INITIALLY LATE THIS WEEK...THERE IS
A TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS...
AND TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. EVENTUALLY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN RIDGING
EXPANDS FROM PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER AN UNSETTLED AND
WET WEEK THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS DRY WEATHER STRETCH MAY EVEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALLER CHANCES OF PRECIP BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY TO WEST OF UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO AXIS OF
HIGHER H85-H7 MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GUSTY WINDS AROUND ON THURSDAY DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD DUE TO STRONG MIXING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL SUPPORT MIN
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES INTERIOR WEST AND IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DO NOT OFFICIALLY BEGIN THE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...NEAR 1030MB...
LAKE BREEZES MAY GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A COOLER DAY
ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY...COOLING WILL BECOME MORE OF A LAKESIDE FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INLAND AREAS RISE INTO THE 60S.

SEEMS THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER FAR WEST
CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO BUILDING DOWN ENOUGH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT UVM TO RESULT IN BAND OF LGT SHRA MAKING IT INTO IWD
06Z-12Z ON SATURDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT HAVE
QPF STAYING OUT OF CWA. 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A BIT NOW THOUGH. NAM
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD PUSH OF LGT PRECIP SO WILL NOT
PUT A MENTION IN YET. INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MIN
TEMPS AND MAY RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR FROST...AT LEAST IN THE
INTERIOR WEST CWA. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OR
NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT MORE FROST...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
LAKES. IF THERE ARE BKN CLOUDS WEST...THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY EVENING RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

DUE TO COOL AND DAMP WEATHER AND MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
/HAD REPORT TODAY OF OVER 4 INCHES TO WEST OF ONTONAGON/...FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ARE TAKING A BRIEF HIATUS. EVENTUALLY DUE TO ALMOST A
WEEK OF DRYING...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY SEE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A FULL
GREEN UP AND/OR SEEN A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

A STEADY NNE WIND BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN S CENTRAL CANADA AND LOW PRES
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER
UPPER MI. THE STRONG UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MAY MAINTAIN SCT-BKN
CLOUDS NEAR THE MVFR THRESHOLD TIL LATE TONIGHT. UNDER A TIGHTENING
PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY NNE WINDS AT CMX/SAW THROUGH THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUP THRU
TONIGHT. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR OVER THE
LAKE...SO LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CURRENT VISIBILITY REPORTS/WEBCAM IMAGERY NEAR THE LAKE...OPTED TO
CANX GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THAT WERE SET TO EXPIRE AT 21Z.
CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS W TO E ON THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/JLA


000
FXUS63 KMQT 230001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLUGGISH UPR LO
OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BTWN RDG OFF THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER
RDG AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. BAND OF -SHRA STRETCHING FM NE MN INTO
THE WRN CWA UNDER BAND OF H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IS
HOLDING FIRM EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRY AIR IS SURGING INTO NE MN/WRN LK
SUP IN STEADY NE FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA AND SFC LO PRES
IN THE LOWER LKS. ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE SE
HALF OF WI/S HALF OF LK MI IS EXPANDING TO THE N AS SHRTWV OVER
IL/LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX IS MOVING N OF THE
CLOSED LO. OTRW...LO CLDS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER UPR MI
WITH CHILLY NE WIND OFF LK SUP. SOME FOG HAS PERSISTED AS WELL NEAR
LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE LLVL DRY AIR HAS NOT YET
ARRIVED.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE HOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FM THE N WL IMPACT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FGEN OVER THE WRN
ZNS AND AREA OF SHRA MOVING N TOWARD THE SE COUNTIES.

TNGT...UPR LO NOW OVER SE MN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ESE...AND NAM SHOWS
BAND OF H85-7 FGEN/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE SEWD
ACRS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...H7-3 QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SUPPORTING UPR JET
LIFTING NNEWD WL IMPACT MAINLY THE SE COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE THESE
DYNAMICS MAY INTERACT FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG OVER THE
SE ZNS. SO HIER POPS IN THIS AREA AT THAT TIME SEEM APPROPRIATE. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE NW CWA UNDER STRONGER NNE
FLOW WL END ANY LINGERING PCPN AS FGEN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SE. THE
PCPN WL END EVEN OVER THE SE ZNS AFT 06Z FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND EXIT OF THE DYNAMICS WL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLRG...BUT THE UPSLOPE NNE FLOW MAY SLOW THE PROCESS OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.

THU...HI PRES IS FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DRY WX.
ALTHOUGH LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS ARND 0C THRU 00Z
WOULD INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DIURNAL CU/SC AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
OVER LAND...DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS AS WELL AS LLVL ACYC/
DIFFLUENT FLOW WL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES. IF THERE IS ANY UPSLOPE SC
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP...THIS CLD WL MIX OUT EARLY. THE
FCST H85 TEMPS AND MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT STIFF NNE WIND OFF LK
SUP WL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE BIG LAKE. THESE
STRONGER NE WINDS WL DIMINISH OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH THE APRCH
OF THE HI CENTER/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING AND RATHER STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE LONG TERM. INITIALLY LATE THIS WEEK...THERE IS
A TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS...
AND TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. EVENTUALLY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN RIDGING
EXPANDS FROM PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER AN UNSETTLED AND
WET WEEK THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS DRY WEATHER STRETCH MAY EVEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALLER CHANCES OF PRECIP BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY TO WEST OF UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO AXIS OF
HIGHER H85-H7 MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GUSTY WINDS AROUND ON THURSDAY DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD DUE TO STRONG MIXING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL SUPPORT MIN
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES INTERIOR WEST AND IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DO NOT OFFICIALLY BEGIN THE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...NEAR 1030MB...
LAKE BREEZES MAY GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A COOLER DAY
ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY...COOLING WILL BECOME MORE OF A LAKESIDE FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INLAND AREAS RISE INTO THE 60S.

SEEMS THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER FAR WEST
CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO BUILDING DOWN ENOUGH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT UVM TO RESULT IN BAND OF LGT SHRA MAKING IT INTO IWD
06Z-12Z ON SATURDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT HAVE
QPF STAYING OUT OF CWA. 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A BIT NOW THOUGH. NAM
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD PUSH OF LGT PRECIP SO WILL NOT
PUT A MENTION IN YET. INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MIN
TEMPS AND MAY RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR FROST...AT LEAST IN THE
INTERIOR WEST CWA. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OR
NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT MORE FROST...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
LAKES. IF THERE ARE BKN CLOUDS WEST...THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY EVENING RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

DUE TO COOL AND DAMP WEATHER AND MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
/HAD REPORT TODAY OF OVER 4 INCHES TO WEST OF ONTONAGON/...FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ARE TAKING A BRIEF HIATUS. EVENTUALLY DUE TO ALMOST A
WEEK OF DRYING...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY SEE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A FULL
GREEN UP AND/OR SEEN A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

AS A STEADY NNE WIND BTWN HIGH PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND LOW PRES
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER
UPPER MI. EXPECT IMRPVOING CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD TOWARD
SAW BY LATE EVENING WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL ALSO SLOW THE TREND TOWARD VFR. UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY NNE WINDS AT ALL 3 SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUP THRU
TONIGHT. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR OVER THE
LAKE...SO LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CURRENT VISIBILITY REPORTS/WEBCAM IMAGERY NEAR THE LAKE...OPTED TO
CANX GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THAT WERE SET TO EXPIRE AT 21Z.
CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS W TO E ON THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/JLA


000
FXUS63 KMQT 222002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLUGGISH UPR LO
OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BTWN RDG OFF THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER
RDG AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. BAND OF -SHRA STRETCHING FM NE MN INTO
THE WRN CWA UNDER BAND OF H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IS
HOLDING FIRM EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRY AIR IS SURGING INTO NE MN/WRN LK
SUP IN STEADY NE FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA AND SFC LO PRES
IN THE LOWER LKS. ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE SE
HALF OF WI/S HALF OF LK MI IS EXPANDING TO THE N AS SHRTWV OVER
IL/LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX IS MOVING N OF THE
CLOSED LO. OTRW...LO CLDS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER UPR MI
WITH CHILLY NE WIND OFF LK SUP. SOME FOG HAS PERSISTED AS WELL NEAR
LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE LLVL DRY AIR HAS NOT YET
ARRIVED.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE HOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FM THE N WL IMPACT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FGEN OVER THE WRN
ZNS AND AREA OF SHRA MOVING N TOWARD THE SE COUNTIES.

TNGT...UPR LO NOW OVER SE MN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ESE...AND NAM SHOWS
BAND OF H85-7 FGEN/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE SEWD
ACRS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...H7-3 QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SUPPORTING UPR JET
LIFTING NNEWD WL IMPACT MAINLY THE SE COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE THESE
DYNAMICS MAY INTERACT FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG OVER THE
SE ZNS. SO HIER POPS IN THIS AREA AT THAT TIME SEEM APPROPRIATE. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE NW CWA UNDER STRONGER NNE
FLOW WL END ANY LINGERING PCPN AS FGEN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SE. THE
PCPN WL END EVEN OVER THE SE ZNS AFT 06Z FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND EXIT OF THE DYNAMICS WL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLRG...BUT THE UPSLOPE NNE FLOW MAY SLOW THE PROCESS OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.

THU...HI PRES IS FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DRY WX.
ALTHOUGH LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS ARND 0C THRU 00Z
WOULD INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DIURNAL CU/SC AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
OVER LAND...DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS AS WELL AS LLVL ACYC/
DIFFLUENT FLOW WL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES. IF THERE IS ANY UPSLOPE SC
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP...THIS CLD WL MIX OUT EARLY. THE
FCST H85 TEMPS AND MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT STIFF NNE WIND OFF LK
SUP WL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE BIG LAKE. THESE
STRONGER NE WINDS WL DIMINISH OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH THE APRCH
OF THE HI CENTER/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING AND RATHER STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE LONG TERM. INITIALLY LATE THIS WEEK...THERE IS
A TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS...
AND TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. EVENTUALLY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN RIDGING
EXPANDS FROM PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER AN UNSETTLED AND
WET WEEK THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS DRY WEATHER STRETCH MAY EVEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALLER CHANCES OF PRECIP BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY TO WEST OF UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO AXIS OF
HIGHER H85-H7 MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GUSTY WINDS AROUND ON THURSDAY DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD DUE TO STRONG MIXING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL SUPPORT MIN
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES INTERIOR WEST AND IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DO NOT OFFICIALLY BEGIN THE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...NEAR 1030MB...
LAKE BREEZES MAY GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A COOLER DAY
ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY...COOLING WILL BECOME MORE OF A LAKESIDE FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INLAND AREAS RISE INTO THE 60S.

SEEMS THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER FAR WEST
CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO BUILDING DOWN ENOUGH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT UVM TO RESULT IN BAND OF LGT SHRA MAKING IT INTO IWD
06Z-12Z ON SATURDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT HAVE
QPF STAYING OUT OF CWA. 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A BIT NOW THOUGH. NAM
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD PUSH OF LGT PRECIP SO WILL NOT
PUT A MENTION IN YET. INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MIN
TEMPS AND MAY RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR FROST...AT LEAST IN THE
INTERIOR WEST CWA. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OR
NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT MORE FROST...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
LAKES. IF THERE ARE BKN CLOUDS WEST...THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY EVENING RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.

DUE TO COOL AND DAMP WEATHER AND MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
/HAD REPORT TODAY OF OVER 4 INCHES TO WEST OF ONTONAGON/...FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ARE TAKING A BRIEF HIATUS. EVENTUALLY DUE TO ALMOST A
WEEK OF DRYING...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY SEE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A FULL
GREEN UP AND/OR SEEN A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

AS A STEADY NNE WIND BTWN HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND LO PRES
OVER THE LWR GRT LKS ADVECTS MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR OVER UPR MI...
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVNG. CMX WL BE CLOSER TO
THE INCOMING DRIER AIR AND SEE A QUICKER IMPROVEMENT THAN AT IWD/
SAW...WHERE A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL ALSO SLOW THE
TREND TOWARD VFR. UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY
NNE WINDS AT ALL 3 SITES TNGT/THU MRNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUP THRU
TONIGHT. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR OVER THE
LAKE...SO LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CURRENT VISIBILITY REPORTS/WEBCAM IMAGERY NEAR THE LAKE...OPTED TO
CANX GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THAT WERE SET TO EXPIRE AT 21Z.
CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS W TO E ON THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA


000
FXUS63 KMQT 221725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 00Z SOUNDS FROM CWPL
AND KGRB...THEY WERE OF VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. THE LARGER WX
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THIS...A LARGE 500MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH E MT A AND INTO CO...WITH A N STREAM LOW SET
UP OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND N QUEBEC...AND THE NEARLY STEADY
STATE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS S MN AND IA. THE LARGE SFC LOW
STRETCHING FROM IA THROUGH IL/LAKE MI/LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD.

THE AXIS OF STRONGER FGEN HAS BEEN PRODUCTIVE IN PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT WITH NOT MUCH AMPLIFICATION. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THIS AREA SHIFTS SE DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP AT OR ABOVE A TENTH
OF AN INCH WILL FALL OVER THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN SINK
TO S CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. WITH THE FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI 00-06Z THURSDAY. FOG WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...SLOWLY DIMINISHING N TO S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. EXPECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO FALL
INTO THE 30S NW TO SE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM LOWER MI THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING
HIGH FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE-NNE WINDS TO
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS OVER ALL BUT FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO 3C /LOWEST W/ BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...WITH SFC TEMPS UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S W AND CENTRAL. WE HAVEN/T SEEN LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN APPROX 5 DAYS...SO IT WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z THU. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING TO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SAT AND THE RIDGE STAYING PUT
IN THE PLAINS. LOOKS DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT
AND PUT IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HELP WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON STARTS AFTER MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
WHICH WAS THE ADJMET AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLDER SPOTS.
HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 50S. FOR FRI...WENT
COLDER FOR HIGHS AS WELL WITH A COLDER START IN THE MORNING AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ONLY TO 4C. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC
WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST. THE TEMPERATURES WERE THE
MAIN THING THAT I ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER
FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NW AND IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE 12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND QUIET WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEEING MUCH
RAIN OUT OF THIS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

AS A STEADY NNE WIND BTWN HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND LO PRES
OVER THE LWR GRT LKS ADVECTS MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR OVER UPR MI...
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVNG. CMX WL BE CLOSER TO
THE INCOMING DRIER AIR AND SEE A QUICKER IMPROVEMENT THAN AT IWD/
SAW...WHERE A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL ALSO SLOW THE
TREND TOWARD VFR. UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY
NNE WINDS AT ALL 3 SITES TNGT/THU MRNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG
ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ246>251-
     265>267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>242-245-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07


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