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000
FXUS63 KMQT 022346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE AND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE LED TO AN AREA OF
MID CLOUDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AND INHIBITED
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A TIME TODAY. LOOKING OUT FROM THE
OFFICE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATED TOWERS DEVELOPING
AND IT JUST NEEDED A LITTLE PUSH. THAT PUSH CAME FROM THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND THEY HAVE STRENGTHENED QUICKLY. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (AIDED BY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AT 850-700MB) AND 30-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER AND WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS (AROUND 9KFT) THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SMALL HAIL. NCAPE
VALUES AROUND 0.08 WHICH INDICATES TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. DCAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
500-600 J/KG...SO THINK THE WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT THESE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AIDS
DEVELOPMENT. THEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING EAST THROUGH
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME HAVE EVEN NOSED INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH IT. THUS...DID
MOVE THE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP OUT EAST COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS/MIXING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S (TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS) TO THE LOW-MID 50S UNDER
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO
START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING TO 850-825MB.
MIXING THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THAT WILL HELP SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIONS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 998MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS WILL BE STRETCHING A WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD INDICATE THE MOVEMENT TO BE MORE EASTERLY AND THINK
THERE IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER PRECIP TO STAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID TREND POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...LARGELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS MN AT THE TIME...WITH THE SFC LOW
ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES E...AND STRETCHES
FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE N BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. STRONG WAA WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 17-20C /WARMEST
ALONG THE WI BORDER/ BY 18Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY. 80S LOOK REASONABLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS /INLAND FROM LAKE MI/. THE SFC LOW WILL SURGE
INTO W CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED
OVER FAR W UPPER MI...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IMPRESSIVELY JUMPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S IF NOT THE LOW 70S
/SHOWN NAM/GFS/AND ECMWF/. PW VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1.5 TO JUST OVER 2IN. MUCAPE VALUES COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 2K
AND 3K J/KG DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH TOTAL TOTALS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE
ALL OF THIS...THE VERY STRONG CAPPING IS A  HUGE CONCERN...AND MAY
KEEP SOME OF THIS UNDER WRAPS. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN S OF THE WI BORDER...UNLESS THE CAP BREAKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS AND UPDATE THE
FCST AS NEEDED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION E OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET BY 03Z FRIDAY...AND
MAINLY OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE BY 06Z FRIDAY. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS /LINGERING STRONG W WINDS 10-15KTS/
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE FAR W THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 60S. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON NW FLOW NEAR THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DIP NEAR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM A FAIRLY WELL STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THE 02/12Z GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS THAN THE 02/00Z ECMWF TO
SWEEP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS IT MAINLY ACROSS N LAKE SUPERIOR. EITHER WAY COLD AIR
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN SIGHT. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW NEARING FROM THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. KEPT TS MENTION OUT OF THIS PERIOD MUCAPE VALUES OVER
200J/KG REMAIN JUST TO THE S OR W OF THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE
FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF CONCERN. FIRST...A DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
PASSING BTWN KIWD AND KCMX. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT
KIWD AND KCMX ASSUMING NO NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OUTSIDE THE
EXPECTED PATH OF ONGOING PCPN. ON WED AFTN...MORE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP N OF A WARM FRONT OVER MN/WI. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AS FAR N AS KIWD LATE IN THE AFTN...BUT RIGHT
NOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW IN MT WILL SHIFT E
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING NE TO JAMES BAY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THAT OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. W WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY AND
DIMINISHING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT A HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 022346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE AND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE LED TO AN AREA OF
MID CLOUDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AND INHIBITED
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A TIME TODAY. LOOKING OUT FROM THE
OFFICE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATED TOWERS DEVELOPING
AND IT JUST NEEDED A LITTLE PUSH. THAT PUSH CAME FROM THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND THEY HAVE STRENGTHENED QUICKLY. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (AIDED BY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AT 850-700MB) AND 30-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER AND WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS (AROUND 9KFT) THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SMALL HAIL. NCAPE
VALUES AROUND 0.08 WHICH INDICATES TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. DCAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
500-600 J/KG...SO THINK THE WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT THESE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AIDS
DEVELOPMENT. THEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING EAST THROUGH
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME HAVE EVEN NOSED INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH IT. THUS...DID
MOVE THE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP OUT EAST COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS/MIXING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S (TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS) TO THE LOW-MID 50S UNDER
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO
START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING TO 850-825MB.
MIXING THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THAT WILL HELP SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIONS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 998MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS WILL BE STRETCHING A WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD INDICATE THE MOVEMENT TO BE MORE EASTERLY AND THINK
THERE IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER PRECIP TO STAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID TREND POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...LARGELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS MN AT THE TIME...WITH THE SFC LOW
ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES E...AND STRETCHES
FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE N BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. STRONG WAA WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 17-20C /WARMEST
ALONG THE WI BORDER/ BY 18Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY. 80S LOOK REASONABLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS /INLAND FROM LAKE MI/. THE SFC LOW WILL SURGE
INTO W CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED
OVER FAR W UPPER MI...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IMPRESSIVELY JUMPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S IF NOT THE LOW 70S
/SHOWN NAM/GFS/AND ECMWF/. PW VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1.5 TO JUST OVER 2IN. MUCAPE VALUES COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 2K
AND 3K J/KG DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH TOTAL TOTALS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE
ALL OF THIS...THE VERY STRONG CAPPING IS A  HUGE CONCERN...AND MAY
KEEP SOME OF THIS UNDER WRAPS. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN S OF THE WI BORDER...UNLESS THE CAP BREAKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS AND UPDATE THE
FCST AS NEEDED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION E OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET BY 03Z FRIDAY...AND
MAINLY OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE BY 06Z FRIDAY. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS /LINGERING STRONG W WINDS 10-15KTS/
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE FAR W THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 60S. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON NW FLOW NEAR THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DIP NEAR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM A FAIRLY WELL STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THE 02/12Z GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS THAN THE 02/00Z ECMWF TO
SWEEP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS IT MAINLY ACROSS N LAKE SUPERIOR. EITHER WAY COLD AIR
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN SIGHT. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW NEARING FROM THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. KEPT TS MENTION OUT OF THIS PERIOD MUCAPE VALUES OVER
200J/KG REMAIN JUST TO THE S OR W OF THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE
FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF ITEMS OF CONCERN. FIRST...A DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
PASSING BTWN KIWD AND KCMX. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT
KIWD AND KCMX ASSUMING NO NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OUTSIDE THE
EXPECTED PATH OF ONGOING PCPN. ON WED AFTN...MORE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
DEVELOP N OF A WARM FRONT OVER MN/WI. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AS FAR N AS KIWD LATE IN THE AFTN...BUT RIGHT
NOW...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON TIMING/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN FCST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW IN MT WILL SHIFT E
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING NE TO JAMES BAY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THAT OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. W WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY AND
DIMINISHING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT A HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 022004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE AND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE LED TO AN AREA OF
MID CLOUDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AND INHIBITED
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A TIME TODAY. LOOKING OUT FROM THE
OFFICE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATED TOWERS DEVELOPING
AND IT JUST NEEDED A LITTLE PUSH. THAT PUSH CAME FROM THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND THEY HAVE STRENGTHENED QUICKLY. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (AIDED BY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AT 850-700MB) AND 30-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER AND WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS (AROUND 9KFT) THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SMALL HAIL. NCAPE
VALUES AROUND 0.08 WHICH INDICATES TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. DCAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
500-600 J/KG...SO THINK THE WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT THESE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AIDS
DEVELOPMENT. THEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING EAST THROUGH
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME HAVE EVEN NOSED INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH IT. THUS...DID
MOVE THE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP OUT EAST COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS/MIXING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S (TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS) TO THE LOW-MID 50S UNDER
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO
START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING TO 850-825MB.
MIXING THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THAT WILL HELP SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIONS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 998MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS WILL BE STRETCHING A WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD INDICATE THE MOVEMENT TO BE MORE EASTERLY AND THINK
THERE IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER PRECIP TO STAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID TREND POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...LARGELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS MN AT THE TIME...WITH THE SFC LOW
ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES E...AND STRETCHES
FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE N BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. STRONG WAA WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 17-20C /WARMEST
ALONG THE WI BORDER/ BY 18Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY. 80S LOOK REASONABLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS /INLAND FROM LAKE MI/. THE SFC LOW WILL SURGE
INTO W CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED
OVER FAR W UPPER MI...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IMPRESSIVELY JUMPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S IF NOT THE LOW 70S
/SHOWN NAM/GFS/AND ECMWF/. PW VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1.5 TO JUST OVER 2IN. MUCAPE VALUES COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 2K
AND 3K J/KG DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH TOTAL TOTALS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE
ALL OF THIS...THE VERY STRONG CAPPING IS A  HUGE CONCERN...AND MAY
KEEP SOME OF THIS UNDER WRAPS. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN S OF THE WI BORDER...UNLESS THE CAP BREAKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS AND UPDATE THE
FCST AS NEEDED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION E OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET BY 03Z FRIDAY...AND
MAINLY OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE BY 06Z FRIDAY. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS /LINGERING STRONG W WINDS 10-15KTS/
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE FAR W THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 60S. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON NW FLOW NEAR THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DIP NEAR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM A FAIRLY WELL STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THE 02/12Z GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS THAN THE 02/00Z ECMWF TO
SWEEP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS IT MAINLY ACROSS N LAKE SUPERIOR. EITHER WAY COLD AIR
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN SIGHT. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW NEARING FROM THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. KEPT TS MENTION OUT OF THIS PERIOD MUCAPE VALUES OVER
200J/KG REMAIN JUST TO THE S OR W OF THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND REMAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN.
FIRST...STARTING TO SEE DIURNAL CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THAT DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A LAKE BREEZE STARTING TO
COME ON SHORE NEAR MARQUETTE COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IT AFFECTING THE TAF SITE...SO HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF VCSH. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND WILL WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
5KFT. THE SECOND ITEM IS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM THIS AND TRY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. THINK LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
BEFORE REACHING KCMX AND MAYBE KIWD LATE THIS EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW IN MT WILL SHIFT E
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING NE TO JAMES BAY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THAT OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. W WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY AND
DIMINISHING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT A HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 022004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE AND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE LED TO AN AREA OF
MID CLOUDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AND INHIBITED
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A TIME TODAY. LOOKING OUT FROM THE
OFFICE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATED TOWERS DEVELOPING
AND IT JUST NEEDED A LITTLE PUSH. THAT PUSH CAME FROM THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND THEY HAVE STRENGTHENED QUICKLY. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (AIDED BY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AT 850-700MB) AND 30-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER AND WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS (AROUND 9KFT) THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SMALL HAIL. NCAPE
VALUES AROUND 0.08 WHICH INDICATES TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. DCAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
500-600 J/KG...SO THINK THE WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT THESE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AIDS
DEVELOPMENT. THEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING EAST THROUGH
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME HAVE EVEN NOSED INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH IT. THUS...DID
MOVE THE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP OUT EAST COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS/MIXING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S (TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS) TO THE LOW-MID 50S UNDER
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO
START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING TO 850-825MB.
MIXING THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THAT WILL HELP SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIONS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 998MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS WILL BE STRETCHING A WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD INDICATE THE MOVEMENT TO BE MORE EASTERLY AND THINK
THERE IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER PRECIP TO STAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID TREND POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...LARGELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WILL START OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS MN AT THE TIME...WITH THE SFC LOW
ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH
ACROSS UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES E...AND STRETCHES
FROM S MANITOBA THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE N BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. STRONG WAA WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 17-20C /WARMEST
ALONG THE WI BORDER/ BY 18Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY. 80S LOOK REASONABLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS /INLAND FROM LAKE MI/. THE SFC LOW WILL SURGE
INTO W CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED
OVER FAR W UPPER MI...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IMPRESSIVELY JUMPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S IF NOT THE LOW 70S
/SHOWN NAM/GFS/AND ECMWF/. PW VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1.5 TO JUST OVER 2IN. MUCAPE VALUES COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 2K
AND 3K J/KG DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH TOTAL TOTALS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE
ALL OF THIS...THE VERY STRONG CAPPING IS A  HUGE CONCERN...AND MAY
KEEP SOME OF THIS UNDER WRAPS. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN S OF THE WI BORDER...UNLESS THE CAP BREAKS ACROSS UPPER
MI. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS AND UPDATE THE
FCST AS NEEDED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION E OF A LINE FROM BARAGA TO WATERSMEET BY 03Z FRIDAY...AND
MAINLY OF A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE BY 06Z FRIDAY. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS /LINGERING STRONG W WINDS 10-15KTS/
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE FAR W THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 60S. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON NW FLOW NEAR THE SFC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DIP NEAR THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME
PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM A FAIRLY WELL STACKED SFC-500MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THE 02/12Z GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS THAN THE 02/00Z ECMWF TO
SWEEP THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS IT MAINLY ACROSS N LAKE SUPERIOR. EITHER WAY COLD AIR
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN SIGHT. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW NEARING FROM THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. KEPT TS MENTION OUT OF THIS PERIOD MUCAPE VALUES OVER
200J/KG REMAIN JUST TO THE S OR W OF THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND REMAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A COUPLE ITEMS OF CONCERN.
FIRST...STARTING TO SEE DIURNAL CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THAT DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A LAKE BREEZE STARTING TO
COME ON SHORE NEAR MARQUETTE COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON IT AFFECTING THE TAF SITE...SO HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF VCSH. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND WILL WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
5KFT. THE SECOND ITEM IS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP FROM THIS AND TRY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. THINK LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
BEFORE REACHING KCMX AND MAYBE KIWD LATE THIS EVENING...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A HIGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW IN MT WILL SHIFT E
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING NE TO JAMES BAY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THAT OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. W WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KTS
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY AND
DIMINISHING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT A HIGH TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE AND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE LED TO AN AREA OF
MID CLOUDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AND INHIBITED
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A TIME TODAY. LOOKING OUT FROM THE
OFFICE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATED TOWERS DEVELOPING
AND IT JUST NEEDED A LITTLE PUSH. THAT PUSH CAME FROM THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND THEY HAVE STRENGTHENED QUICKLY. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (AIDED BY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AT 850-700MB) AND 30-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER AND WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS (AROUND 9KFT) THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SMALL HAIL. NCAPE
VALUES AROUND 0.08 WHICH INDICATES TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. DCAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
500-600 J/KG...SO THINK THE WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT THESE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AIDS
DEVELOPMENT. THEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING EAST THROUGH
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME HAVE EVEN NOSED INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH IT. THUS...DID
MOVE THE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP OUT EAST COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS/MIXING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S (TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS) TO THE LOW-MID 50S UNDER
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO
START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING TO 850-825MB.
MIXING THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THAT WILL HELP SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIONS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 998MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS WILL BE STRETCHING A WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD INDICATE THE MOVEMENT TO BE MORE EASTERLY AND THINK
THERE IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER PRECIP TO STAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID TREND POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...LARGELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WHILE A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE AND BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WAVE LED TO AN AREA OF
MID CLOUDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AND INHIBITED
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR A TIME TODAY. LOOKING OUT FROM THE
OFFICE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATED TOWERS DEVELOPING
AND IT JUST NEEDED A LITTLE PUSH. THAT PUSH CAME FROM THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. THUS...HAVE SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND THEY HAVE STRENGTHENED QUICKLY. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATING AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE (AIDED BY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AT 850-700MB) AND 30-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDER AND WITH LOW FREEZING
LEVELS (AROUND 9KFT) THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SMALL HAIL. NCAPE
VALUES AROUND 0.08 WHICH INDICATES TALL/SKINNY CAPE AND SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM GROWING TOO LARGE. DCAPE VALUES ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
500-600 J/KG...SO THINK THE WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT THESE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AIDS
DEVELOPMENT. THEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS WORKING EAST THROUGH
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS HAS SPARKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOME HAVE EVEN NOSED INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH IT. THUS...DID
MOVE THE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND AFFECTING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP OUT EAST COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THINKING IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS/MIXING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S (TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS) TO THE LOW-MID 50S UNDER
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO
START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING TO 850-825MB.
MIXING THOSE TEMPS TO THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR MUCH OF CWA WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THAT WILL HELP SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIONS UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 998MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS WILL BE STRETCHING A WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. STORM MOTION AND CORFIDI
VECTORS WOULD INDICATE THE MOVEMENT TO BE MORE EASTERLY AND THINK
THERE IS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR MUCH OF THE STRONGER PRECIP TO STAY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. DID TREND POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCES
OVER THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND CHANCES OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE...LARGELY DUE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 021445 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE
THICKNESS OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST UP TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ON
THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING TODAY AND IN TURN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A TREND IN THE
HIGH-RES MODELS (HRRR...NAMDNG...AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW) TO DEVELOP
THE SHOWERS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST (GENERALLY EASTERN
MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AND EASTWARD)...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THAT IDEA. THE EASTERN U.P. STILL LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STORM
MOTION VECTORS PUSHING SHOWERS EASTWARD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021445 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO THE
THICKNESS OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST UP TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ON
THE IMPACT THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON DIURNAL HEATING TODAY AND IN TURN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A TREND IN THE
HIGH-RES MODELS (HRRR...NAMDNG...AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW) TO DEVELOP
THE SHOWERS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST (GENERALLY EASTERN
MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE COUNTIES AND EASTWARD)...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THAT IDEA. THE EASTERN U.P. STILL LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DUE TO LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STORM
MOTION VECTORS PUSHING SHOWERS EASTWARD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB









000
FXUS63 KMQT 021139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 021139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR DOMINATING. AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT
SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD
MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 020902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 020902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
ONE WAS LOCATED FROM SW MN INTO NW IA WHILE ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWV
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SFC...WRLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS UPPER MI BETWEEN A 987 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND A WEAK RIDGE
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM MN INTO NW WI AND WRN
UPPER MI AHEAD OF THE SW MN SHRTWV.

TODAY...MOST OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MN SHRTWV IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND 850-600 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 7.5C/KM AND LOW
LEVEL CONV ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST)
WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT SHRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NORTH DAKOTA
SHRTWV NEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK QVECTOR
CONV MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TS...SOME ISOLD COULD
DEVELOP. WITH FREEZING HEIGHTS ONLY NEAR 9K-10K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHRTWVS EXITING
TO THE EAST...ANY PCPN SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. WITH THE FAST
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AND PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPING WAS LOW AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN WAS MENTIONED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE WHEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 020812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 020812
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THOUGH ACTIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THE REST OF
LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TO UPPER GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY IN A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ALSO OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LIMITED. BULK OF SHRA/TSRA LATER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY WEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA CLOSER TO
SFC WARM FRONT AND BUILDING INSTABILITY. COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR EVEN FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN DUE TO
GENERAL H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S EVEN
WITH SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTN.

POTENTIAL FOR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE APPROACH OF A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES
LOW-LEVEL JET /40 KTS AT H85/ INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SINCE THERE
IS NOT REALLY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME THOUGH...THINK
THAT THE BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE VCNTY OF WHERE LOW- LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT. BASED ON SFC WINDS AND DWPNTS...BEST
GUESS AT LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY IS FM CNTRL MN INTO WESTERN WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX INSTABILITY BOTH IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND ELEVATED
MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN
WITH INSTABILITY TRAILING OFF CONSIDERABLY INTO UPR MICHIGAN AND LK
MICHIGAN/LOWER MICHIGAN. MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD QPF
OVER UPR MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THIS AS
MOST OF THE HEAVY SHRA/TSRA COULD END UP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM
FRONT AND ALSO BASED ON H85-H3 THICKNESSES WHICH...ALONG WITH FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE GENERAL MOTION
OF AN MCS. SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS STILL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FARTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THOUGH SO CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA MAKING IT ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT COULD BUMP SHRA/TSRA FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CWA IS
INCREASING CAPPING THAT DEVELOPS IN THE H8-H7 LAYER OUT AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW. AT THIS POINT THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MAIN EXTENT OF CAPPING
WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE CONCERNS ABOUT TSRA OVERAGE...BACKED DOWN A BIT ON THE
HIGHER POPS WE HAD GOING BUT DID KEEP POPS HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEST INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST FOLLOWING THE TREND OF H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TIED TO
INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALSO WHERE THIS FORCING SYNCS UP WITH
GREATER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TSRA INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO THE EAST BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SHRA/TSRA
OUTRUN GREATER POOL OF INSTABILITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

FOR THURSDAY...RETAINED MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWING TREND
TOWARD LOWER POPS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL
SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP IN THE AFTN WITH
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAPPING SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO THIS WILL IMPACT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA. COULD GET QUITE WARM WITH EVEN JUST A LITTLE CLEARING.
MIXING TO H9 WITH SHARPER INVERSION AROUND THAT LEVEL SHOWN ON
SOUNDINGS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 80
OVER MUCH OF CWA. NUDGED TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AS A STARTING
POINT...BUT A MUGGY DAY /SFC DWPNTS 65-70/ WITH MID 80S IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS...MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WEST HALF OF CWA
COULD PUSH OVER 2500J/KG...BUT MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL CAPPING IN THE
H8-H7 LAYER BE TOO STRONG TO PROHIBIT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING?
BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND LATEST TRENDS...SEEMS THAT THERE IS
A RISK OF STORMS FORMING MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE WEST AND
AFFECTING REST OF CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
RE-INTRODUCED INTO THE AREA FM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT INCREASES
AND CAPPING DECREASES AS SHORTWAVE AND H5 SPEED MAX DRAW CLOSER. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IF STORMS FORM...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS ELEVATED AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 45 KTS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS OVER 30
KTS. THE FORECASTED INSTABILITY...IF IT IS INDEED REALIZED...AND
SUCH SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING/SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS AND ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CONSOLIDATING INTO SEVERE WIND GUST PRODUCING
MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CONDITIONAL RISK ATTM...BUT CERTAINTLY
WORTH MONITORING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS WI INTO WEST HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH A 15 PCT
RISK FOR SEVERE /SLIGHT CATEGORICAL RISK/.  WILL MENTION POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY THE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST CWA. MAIN ISSUE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON LK SUPERIOR AS IT BECOMES UNSTABLE IN THE 1000-900MB
LAYER. MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE OVER 30 KTS SO IT COULD BE GUSTY ALONG
THE LK SUPERIOR SHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO PRESSURE
RISES BTWN DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING HIGH...EVEN HIGHER WINDS
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION. INCREASING WAVE ACTION WOULD ALSO LEAD
TO HIGH SWIM RISK ON BEACHES FROM MARQUETTE TO GRAND MARAIS.

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS IT LOOKS NOW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD AND STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT NIGHT MAY
DIP BLO 40 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07









000
FXUS63 KMQT 020522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 020522
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON UPSTREAM RAOBS DOMINATING. AN
APRCHG UPR DISTURBANCE/DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION COULD
CAUSE SOME -SHRA AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD THIS AFTN...BUT THE DRY LLVL
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE -SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07









000
FXUS63 KMQT 012325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THIS FCST PERIOD WITH THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COLD FNT. GUSTY W
WINDS AT CMX WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME -SHRA TO MAINLY SAW ON TUE AFTN...BUT
EXPECTED DRY LLVL AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR WX EVEN IF THE
-SHRA OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 011938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 011938
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN ACTIVE MID-RANGE FORECAST AHEAD WITH A STRONG EARLY-FALL SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS THEN ARRIVE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST ALBERTA IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...CLIPPING THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA WEDNESDAY WILL BE INDUCING A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
MOISTURE ALONG A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY DOES
NOT LINE UP WELL WITH THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER OVER LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL WAA.
WITH INCREASING 850 HPA TEMPS TO 14 TO 16C AND SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO
LOW 80S. WHILE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
WAA IN THE AFTERNOON...POPS WERE CUT BACK FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN
MINIMAL OVERALL SUPPORT IN THE REGION. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
SURPASSING 1.7 INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ...AND IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310K THETA SFCS ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. GREATER
THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
50KTS...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...AOA 13KFT.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN JUST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER ELEVATED
STORMS.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STALLING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW AT THIS POINT TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WOULD EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE LEANS TO THE FORMER
IDEA. WITH THAT SAID...LAKE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AT
THIS POINT SUPPORT A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKE.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
UPON ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THINK THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT A DECENT AMOUNT FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THE EAST IS A
LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS ON THE COOLER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS. THE MID-RANGE MODEL SUITE...EXCLUDING
THE GEM...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...WITH IT
REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z.

A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 5KFT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WORTH A CLOSE LOOK. A POOL
OF MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE INTERIOR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS OF 50KTS FROM MAINLY SPEED SHEAR WILL
LIE NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC FRONT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
DISCRETE STRUCTURES ALONG THE FRONT. THE MAIN FOCUS ATTM IS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLEARING CAN HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
SFC FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THURSDAY EVEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS
IT ENTERS A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY.
COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM MAY BRING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO
CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT A DECENT AMOUNT BY THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IMPINGING ON A LINGERING SFC
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS FALL TO 1 TO 4C
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY...LEADING TO SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

REMAINING MOISTURE WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. LOW PWATS OF UNDER 0.4 INCH AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST.
FAVORED GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS INDICATING LOW 40S. GIVEN THE
SET-UP...HAVE FOLLOWED THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE. IN FACT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE COLDER
LOCATIONS.

A WEAK...MOISTURE-STARVED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LIMITED FORCING
REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THESE CLOUDS...SO DID NOT LOWER TEMPS AS MUCH AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR MORE TEMPS AROUND 40 FOR COLDER LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THIS
POINT...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 011908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 011908
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH A NEGATIVE TILTED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON
TUE. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT SPED UP
EXIT OF POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND DELAYED POPS
FOR EARLY TUE MORNING UNTIL THE MID MORNING. LOOKED LIKE THERE BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH SOME HEATING AND STILL BEING IN THE UPPER
TROUGH TO HAVE SOME POPS FOR LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL BE THE
WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 011723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 011723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN AND ALLOWS FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING.

CMX...CONTINUED -SHRA EARLY SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER
AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

SAW...SOME SHRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE APPROACH
OF A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS PERIOD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO A DOWNSLOPE W
DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 011144
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHRA...MVFR
CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE EARLY. THE CIGS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR
RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS
TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND BEHIND THE FROPA WILL TAP
DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION BEHIND A FROPA AND WITH SOME
CONTINUED -SHRA SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SRLY FLOW. EXPECT SOME SHRA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOPP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC
COLD FRONT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WSHFT TO
A DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE
FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 010915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 010915
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NEAR INL THROUGH CNTRL MN INTO NW IA. A WEAK SHRTWV
FROM NE MN INTO NW WI SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA
OVER ERN MN INTO NW WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. A STRONGER SHRTWV WAS
LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NW IA. WITH ONLY MODEST 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE...ONLY A FEW TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION. THE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER 850 THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.

TODAY...AS THE NW IA SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD THE AREA WITH MODERATE
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH
0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS...SINCE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...MAINLY JUST BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE
CELLS AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
QVECTOR DIV SPREADS INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE EVENING WILL
END EARLY. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 50S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ALSO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE OVER THE SW CWA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AREAS OF FOG PERSISTING UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 010722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 010722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IN THE WAKE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE AS
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW MOISTURE H8-H7. PRETTY HIGH BASED SHRA AND WILL
ALSO MENTION ISOLD TSRA WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER ECMWF AND GFS.
WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A LULL FOR TUE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES FROM MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LGT
SW WINDS ON PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT COOLING. LOWEST PWAT
FAR EAST CWA WHERE MIN TEMPS MAY FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. ON
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND GEM-NH INDICATE SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTN OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS THERE BUT ONLY
APPEARS THAT BEST MOISTURE INFLOW IS OVER FAR WEST CWA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS H85 TEMPS TO AROUND +15C SO AS LONG AS SKIES STAY
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY...MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LARGER SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES SLIDING OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL...THOUGH RIGHT NOW SIGNAL OF ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS MINIMAL. THERE IS A MID LEVEL JET MAX SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY SFC
TROUGH WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA AND BASED ON SFC WINDS AND
DWPNTS...THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT VCNTY OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. BULGE OF WARMTH ALOFT RESULTS IN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER 8C/KM MAKING IT
OVER UPR LAKES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. RESERVOIR OF ML MUCAPE OVER
2000J/KG WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF UPR MICHIGAN WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SW-NE. EDGE OF SFC BASED CAPE AND ORIENTATION OF H85-H3 THICKNESSES
INDICATE THAT STRONGER STORMS MAY BE MORE TO SOUTHWEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TOUGH TO SAY
AT THIS POINT THOUGH. CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS WORK FOR NOW SINCE THERE
WILL BE LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AIMED INTO THE AREA. MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AS SFC FRONT WORKS
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN LATER ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
TEMPS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD REACH TOWARD
80 DEGREES WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL CLEARING SINCE H85 TEMPS
ARE 18-20C. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/MID LEVEL CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR COVERAGE OF SFC BASED STORMS IN THE AFTN. MODELS
MAY BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MIN IN QPF 18Z-24Z BUT
THEN INCREASE IT BY 06Z ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA BY THAT TIME. NO NEED TO GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS
ATTM GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT WITH THE CONSENSUS CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY WITH THIS DROPPING OFF TO LOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CHILLY LOWS POSSIBLE INLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS AND LGT WINDS BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCES SHOWED MINS IN THE LOWER 40S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 30S
EITHER OF THOSE NIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 010532
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07









000
FXUS63 KMQT 010532
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

IWD...LLWS AND NMRS HEAVY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS RIDING NNEWD
UNDER A STRONG SSW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FNT WILL
IMPACT THIS SITE THRU SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE HEAVIER SHRA...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. THE CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY DURING MID MRNG AS THE FNT
PASSES AND THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE WNW DIRECTION. THE W WIND
BEHIND THE FROPA WL TAP DRIER AIR AND ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTN.

CMX...VFR CONDITIONS WL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT THEN
GIVE WAY TO MVFR WX AS A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHRA AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY
APRCHG COLD FNT EDGES SLOWLY TO THE E. LLWS WL BE THE RULE THRU
SUNRISE UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ. A WSHFT TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FROPA AND WITH SOME CONTINUED -SHRA WL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BEFORE THE W WIND
TAPS DRIER AIR AND RESULTS IN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAW...EXPECT LO CLDS/IFR CIGS TO LINGER THRU THE NGT WITH A MOIST
SLY FLOW UNDER A STRONG SW LLJ SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE LLWS DRAWING LLVL
MSTR N FM LK MI IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO DVLP BY LATE MRNG WITH THE CLOSER APRCH OF
SFC COLD FNT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE AFTN WITH A WSHFT TO A
DOWNSLOPE W DIRECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 312327
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CMX/IWD...WHILE THERE COULD BE A -SHRA AT CMX AND ESPECIALLY IWD
THIS EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SW LLJ THAT WL CAUSE SOME
LLWS AT BOTH SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT THESE
LOCATIONS. DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON MON...THE ARRIVAL OF EVEN
MOISTER AIR AND A DISTURBANCE FM THE SW WL BRING MORE NMRS...
HEAVIER SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
AS A WAVE OF LO PRES RIDES NEWD ALONG A SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT...
PERSISTENT HEAVIER SHRA WL CAUSE A DETERIORATION TO IFR WX. A WSHFT
TO THE W FOLLOWING THE FROPA/LO PRES PASSAGE WL BRING ABOUT AN END
TO THE SHRA AND SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBY ON MON AFTN. WITH A
LATER FROPA AND MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE W COMPONENT...THIS IMPROVEMENT WL
BE SLOWER AT CMX.

SAW...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SC MAY BREAK UP AT TIMES THIS EVNG...MVFR
CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINATE. IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING AND THE
FVRBL S WIND TNGT...EXPECT LOWER CLDS/IFR CIGS BY LATE EVNG. LLWS WL
ALSO DVLP UNDER STRENGTHENING SW LLJ. EXPECT SOME HEAVIER SHRA TO
DVLP ON MON WITH CLOSER APRCH OF SFC COLD FNT AND MAINTAIN IFR WX
UNTIL THE COLD FNT SWEEPS TO THE E LATER IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WL
IMPROVE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD WITH A WSHFT TO THE W FOLLOWING THE
FROPA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 311940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311940
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. POPS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR
WEST AND THEN THAT SPREADS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. COULD BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT OVER THE WEST MON
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 311824
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN A DEPARTING SHRTWV
TROUGH INTO NRN LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MI
SHRTWV WERE EXITING THE ERN CWA. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT FROM
CMX/P59 TO IWD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY AND NRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NW WI.

TODAY...AS THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT THAT THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND EAST WILL THIN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY AFTERNOON.
WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING INVERSION HEIGHTS CLOSER TO 900 MB...MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ARE IN STORE WITH SOME LOWER READINGS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE E OR SSE WINDS PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AS THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION SRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE.
AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE FROM NW WI TO NEAR
IWD AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP
OVER MN WILL SPREAD TOWARD AND INTO THE CWA...MAINLY AFT 06Z. WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE INTO CNTRL UPPER MI IS LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES TO AT LEAST 1K J/KG AND FAVORABLE 0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR
TO 30/40 KNOTS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH TSRA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF SE TO S GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WRLY TO 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
AND MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 311824
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN A DEPARTING SHRTWV
TROUGH INTO NRN LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MI
SHRTWV WERE EXITING THE ERN CWA. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT FROM
CMX/P59 TO IWD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY AND NRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NW WI.

TODAY...AS THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT THAT THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND EAST WILL THIN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY AFTERNOON.
WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING INVERSION HEIGHTS CLOSER TO 900 MB...MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ARE IN STORE WITH SOME LOWER READINGS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE E OR SSE WINDS PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AS THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION SRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE.
AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE FROM NW WI TO NEAR
IWD AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP
OVER MN WILL SPREAD TOWARD AND INTO THE CWA...MAINLY AFT 06Z. WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE INTO CNTRL UPPER MI IS LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES TO AT LEAST 1K J/KG AND FAVORABLE 0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR
TO 30/40 KNOTS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH TSRA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI DUE TO THE MON COLD FRONT EXITING THE
AREA...MON NIGHT AND TUE LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS SFC RIDGING
MOVES IN. A COUPLE MODELS SHOW A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF
TUE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO DRY AND THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GO TOO FAR SE
OF THE AREA TO HAVE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS
850MB TEMPS WILL BE 9-11C.

FOR WED...SFC RIDGING MOVES E...SO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE UNDER ZONAL UPPER FLOW. MODELS SHOW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WED. OF COURSE...THIS FAR OUT THE
CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP RESULTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVES IS MINIMAL...SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODELS TEND TO GENERALLY AGREE
THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NCENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS OR NEAR THE CWA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTING SFC LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA OF ALASKA AND WILL ONLY ENTER THE CONUS OVER WA TUE
NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS YET TO REALLY DETACH FROM THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ALASKA NORMALLY LEADS TO PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK 4-5 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS THE CASE HERE. DO
HAVE TO PREFER THE ECMWF SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE STEADY FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW SINCE THE GFS IS AROUND 18 HOURS
SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW THAN
THE ECMWF. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
SPAN IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS...BUT TIMING WILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS /USING THE PREFERRED TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE ECMWF/ IS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT AS MLCAPES APPROACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30KTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT...IT IS ALSO THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO. THE FARTHER S GFS WOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ON FRI
BEFORE THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...SO INSTABILITY
WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CHANCE ARE LIMITED AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY CHANGE. FARTHER N
ECMWF IS ALSO WARMEST WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C THU
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S OR
EVEN LOW 90S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH A
MORE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO TEMPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 3-4C ON SAT AND WARM TO 6-8C ON
SUN...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF SE TO S GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WRLY TO 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
AND MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311607
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1207 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN A DEPARTING SHRTWV
TROUGH INTO NRN LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MI
SHRTWV WERE EXITING THE ERN CWA. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT FROM
CMX/P59 TO IWD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY AND NRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NW WI.

TODAY...AS THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT THAT THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND EAST WILL THIN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY AFTERNOON.
WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING INVERSION HEIGHTS CLOSER TO 900 MB...MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ARE IN STORE WITH SOME LOWER READINGS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE E OR SSE WINDS PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AS THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION SRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE.
AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE FROM NW WI TO NEAR
IWD AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP
OVER MN WILL SPREAD TOWARD AND INTO THE CWA...MAINLY AFT 06Z. WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE INTO CNTRL UPPER MI IS LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES TO AT LEAST 1K J/KG AND FAVORABLE 0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR
TO 30/40 KNOTS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH TSRA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD BUT THAT GIVES WAY TO SHALLOW RIDGING BY MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH
WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AND DRY/COOLER AIR SETTLING
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ON
LABOR DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS FOR THE MOST
PART TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT
FALL BLO NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY.

THUNDER CHANCES AND STRENGTH ON LABOR DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER THIS WEEK.

LABOR DAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DRIVING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
DAKOTAS LIFTS OVER ONTARIO TO START THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON/IDAHO TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN
SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO LEADING SHORTWAVE. SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOSTLY IMPACTS CWA
IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS AS DURING THIS PERIOD OF FORCING/LIFT THERE IS A H85
JET UP TO 50 KTS FM THE SOUTHWEST/0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND 1-6KM
MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. FREEZING LEVEL IS BTWN 12-13KFT WITH STORM
CORES HAVING TO REACH ABOVE 35 KFT FOR POTENTIAL OF ONE-INCH HAIL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. BY AFTN...MLCAPES SPIKE UP WELL OVER 1000
J/KG ESPECIALLY CNTRL CWA...BUT SFC FRONT IS ON ITS WAY ACROSS CWA BY
THAT TIME AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF SFC
FRONT SLOWS UP...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY...ISOLD STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. RISK OF SEVERE STILL
THERE AS WELL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KTS. MAX TEMPS ON LABOR DAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT SEEMS THAT MANY AREAS
WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

FRONT CLEARS EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE WNW
WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR
60S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY MAY START TO SEE
WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS/GEM-NH AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY BUT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH ONLY WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHOWN. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. LAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF ARE
SHOWING GREATER SIGNAL OF THIS OCCURRING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE UPR LAKES ALONG WITH LARGE AREA OF ML
MUCAPES OVER 1000-1500 J/KG UPSTREAM WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLD STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WOULD BE NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY COULD GET QUITE WARM AS H85
TEMPS SURGE TOWARD +20C. WITH FULL SUNSHINE THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S IF NOT LOWER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD
CONSENSUS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED ADJUSTING IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.

THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA...
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH OF MOST CWA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF SE TO S GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WRLY TO 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
AND MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 311607
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1207 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN A DEPARTING SHRTWV
TROUGH INTO NRN LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MI
SHRTWV WERE EXITING THE ERN CWA. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT FROM
CMX/P59 TO IWD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY AND NRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NW WI.

TODAY...AS THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT THAT THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND EAST WILL THIN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY AFTERNOON.
WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING INVERSION HEIGHTS CLOSER TO 900 MB...MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ARE IN STORE WITH SOME LOWER READINGS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE E OR SSE WINDS PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AS THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION SRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE.
AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE FROM NW WI TO NEAR
IWD AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP
OVER MN WILL SPREAD TOWARD AND INTO THE CWA...MAINLY AFT 06Z. WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE INTO CNTRL UPPER MI IS LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES TO AT LEAST 1K J/KG AND FAVORABLE 0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR
TO 30/40 KNOTS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH TSRA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD BUT THAT GIVES WAY TO SHALLOW RIDGING BY MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH
WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AND DRY/COOLER AIR SETTLING
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ON
LABOR DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS FOR THE MOST
PART TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT
FALL BLO NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY.

THUNDER CHANCES AND STRENGTH ON LABOR DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER THIS WEEK.

LABOR DAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DRIVING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
DAKOTAS LIFTS OVER ONTARIO TO START THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON/IDAHO TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN
SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO LEADING SHORTWAVE. SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOSTLY IMPACTS CWA
IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS AS DURING THIS PERIOD OF FORCING/LIFT THERE IS A H85
JET UP TO 50 KTS FM THE SOUTHWEST/0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND 1-6KM
MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. FREEZING LEVEL IS BTWN 12-13KFT WITH STORM
CORES HAVING TO REACH ABOVE 35 KFT FOR POTENTIAL OF ONE-INCH HAIL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. BY AFTN...MLCAPES SPIKE UP WELL OVER 1000
J/KG ESPECIALLY CNTRL CWA...BUT SFC FRONT IS ON ITS WAY ACROSS CWA BY
THAT TIME AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF SFC
FRONT SLOWS UP...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY...ISOLD STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. RISK OF SEVERE STILL
THERE AS WELL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KTS. MAX TEMPS ON LABOR DAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT SEEMS THAT MANY AREAS
WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

FRONT CLEARS EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE WNW
WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR
60S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY MAY START TO SEE
WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS/GEM-NH AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY BUT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH ONLY WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHOWN. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. LAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF ARE
SHOWING GREATER SIGNAL OF THIS OCCURRING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE UPR LAKES ALONG WITH LARGE AREA OF ML
MUCAPES OVER 1000-1500 J/KG UPSTREAM WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLD STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WOULD BE NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY COULD GET QUITE WARM AS H85
TEMPS SURGE TOWARD +20C. WITH FULL SUNSHINE THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S IF NOT LOWER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD
CONSENSUS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED ADJUSTING IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.

THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA...
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH OF MOST CWA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING SC IFR CIGS AT CMX AND SAW TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM AND RAIN ARRIVES BY
THEN FOR IWD AND CMX. SAW IS A DIFFERENT STORY AS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF AN UPSLOPE LOW CLOUD/FOG EVENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
SOUTH WINDS AND PUT THAT SCENARIO OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT. ON MON MORNING...RAIN WILL HAVE
STARTED AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL. LLJ SETS
UP TONIGHT OFF THE SFC AT ALL SITES AND PUT IN LLWS TO COVER IT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF SE TO S GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WRLY TO 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
AND MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB









000
FXUS63 KMQT 310916
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
516 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN A DEPARTING SHRTWV
TROUGH INTO NRN LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MI
SHRTWV WERE EXITING THE ERN CWA. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT FROM
CMX/P59 TO IWD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY AND NRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NW WI.

TODAY...AS THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT THAT THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND EAST WILL THIN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY AFTERNOON.
WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING INVERSION HEIGHTS CLOSER TO 900 MB...MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ARE IN STORE WITH SOME LOWER READINGS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE E OR SSE WINDS PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AS THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION SRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE.
AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE FROM NW WI TO NEAR
IWD AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP
OVER MN WILL SPREAD TOWARD AND INTO THE CWA...MAINLY AFT 06Z. WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE INTO CNTRL UPPER MI IS LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES TO AT LEAST 1K J/KG AND FAVORABLE 0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR
TO 30/40 KNOTS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH TSRA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD BUT THAT GIVES WAY TO SHALLOW RIDGING BY MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH
WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AND DRY/COOLER AIR SETTLING
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ON
LABOR DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS FOR THE MOST
PART TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT
FALL BLO NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY.

THUNDER CHANCES AND STRENGTH ON LABOR DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER THIS WEEK.

LABOR DAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DRIVING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
DAKOTAS LIFTS OVER ONTARIO TO START THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON/IDAHO TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN
SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO LEADING SHORTWAVE. SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOSTLY IMPACTS CWA
IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS AS DURING THIS PERIOD OF FORCING/LIFT THERE IS A H85
JET UP TO 50 KTS FM THE SOUTHWEST/0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND 1-6KM
MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. FREEZING LEVEL IS BTWN 12-13KFT WITH STORM
CORES HAVING TO REACH ABOVE 35 KFT FOR POTENTIAL OF ONE-INCH HAIL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. BY AFTN...MLCAPES SPIKE UP WELL OVER 1000
J/KG ESPECIALLY CNTRL CWA...BUT SFC FRONT IS ON ITS WAY ACROSS CWA BY
THAT TIME AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF SFC
FRONT SLOWS UP...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY...ISOLD STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. RISK OF SEVERE STILL
THERE AS WELL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KTS. MAX TEMPS ON LABOR DAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT SEEMS THAT MANY AREAS
WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

FRONT CLEARS EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE WNW
WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR
60S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY MAY START TO SEE
WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS/GEM-NH AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY BUT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH ONLY WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHOWN. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. LAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF ARE
SHOWING GREATER SIGNAL OF THIS OCCURRING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE UPR LAKES ALONG WITH LARGE AREA OF ML
MUCAPES OVER 1000-1500 J/KG UPSTREAM WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLD STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WOULD BE NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY COULD GET QUITE WARM AS H85
TEMPS SURGE TOWARD +20C. WITH FULL SUNSHINE THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S IF NOT LOWER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD
CONSENSUS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED ADJUSTING IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.

THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA...
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH OF MOST CWA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING VFR SC CIGS AT IWD AND CMX TO DISSIPATE AS HI PRES
BLDS OVER WRN UPR MI UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR
DISTURBANCE. WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE BLDG HI...EXPECT RADIATION FOG
TO DVLP AND DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LINGERING HI SFC DEWPTS. A MORE STEADY...
UPSLOPE N WIND OFF LK SUP WL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLDS WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER RADIATION
FOG AT SAW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LO CLDS TO
MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST
AT SAW AS AN UPSLOPE NE VEERING SE WIND DVLPS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI SHIFTING TO THE E. A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL OVERSPREAD THE
UPR LKS THIS EVNG BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...A LLJ WL DVLP AND MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO AT LEAST THE WRN IWD/CMX TAF SITES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO CAUSE
ANY LO CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF SE TO S GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WRLY TO 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
AND MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 310916
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
516 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BTWN A DEPARTING SHRTWV
TROUGH INTO NRN LOWER MI AND AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MI
SHRTWV WERE EXITING THE ERN CWA. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI...EXCEPT FROM
CMX/P59 TO IWD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY AND NRN
ONTARIO INTO WRN UPPER MI AND NW WI.

TODAY...AS THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS MORNING AND DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT THAT THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER THE
CNTRL AND EAST WILL THIN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO SCT CU BY AFTERNOON.
WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING INVERSION HEIGHTS CLOSER TO 900 MB...MAX
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ARE IN STORE WITH SOME LOWER READINGS
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHERE E OR SSE WINDS PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AS THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION SRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE.
AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE FROM NW WI TO NEAR
IWD AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP
OVER MN WILL SPREAD TOWARD AND INTO THE CWA...MAINLY AFT 06Z. WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE INTO CNTRL UPPER MI IS LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCAPE VALUES TO AT LEAST 1K J/KG AND FAVORABLE 0-1KM/0-6KM SHEAR
TO 30/40 KNOTS...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH TSRA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ISOLD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD BUT THAT GIVES WAY TO SHALLOW RIDGING BY MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH
WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AND DRY/COOLER AIR SETTLING
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ON
LABOR DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS FOR THE MOST
PART TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT
FALL BLO NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY.

THUNDER CHANCES AND STRENGTH ON LABOR DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER THIS WEEK.

LABOR DAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DRIVING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
DAKOTAS LIFTS OVER ONTARIO TO START THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON/IDAHO TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN
SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO LEADING SHORTWAVE. SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOSTLY IMPACTS CWA
IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS AS DURING THIS PERIOD OF FORCING/LIFT THERE IS A H85
JET UP TO 50 KTS FM THE SOUTHWEST/0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND 1-6KM
MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. FREEZING LEVEL IS BTWN 12-13KFT WITH STORM
CORES HAVING TO REACH ABOVE 35 KFT FOR POTENTIAL OF ONE-INCH HAIL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. BY AFTN...MLCAPES SPIKE UP WELL OVER 1000
J/KG ESPECIALLY CNTRL CWA...BUT SFC FRONT IS ON ITS WAY ACROSS CWA BY
THAT TIME AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF SFC
FRONT SLOWS UP...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY...ISOLD STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. RISK OF SEVERE STILL
THERE AS WELL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KTS. MAX TEMPS ON LABOR DAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT SEEMS THAT MANY AREAS
WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

FRONT CLEARS EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE WNW
WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR
60S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY MAY START TO SEE
WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS/GEM-NH AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY BUT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH ONLY WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHOWN. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. LAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF ARE
SHOWING GREATER SIGNAL OF THIS OCCURRING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE UPR LAKES ALONG WITH LARGE AREA OF ML
MUCAPES OVER 1000-1500 J/KG UPSTREAM WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLD STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WOULD BE NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY COULD GET QUITE WARM AS H85
TEMPS SURGE TOWARD +20C. WITH FULL SUNSHINE THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S IF NOT LOWER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD
CONSENSUS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED ADJUSTING IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.

THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA...
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH OF MOST CWA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING VFR SC CIGS AT IWD AND CMX TO DISSIPATE AS HI PRES
BLDS OVER WRN UPR MI UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR
DISTURBANCE. WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE BLDG HI...EXPECT RADIATION FOG
TO DVLP AND DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LINGERING HI SFC DEWPTS. A MORE STEADY...
UPSLOPE N WIND OFF LK SUP WL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLDS WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER RADIATION
FOG AT SAW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LO CLDS TO
MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST
AT SAW AS AN UPSLOPE NE VEERING SE WIND DVLPS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI SHIFTING TO THE E. A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL OVERSPREAD THE
UPR LKS THIS EVNG BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...A LLJ WL DVLP AND MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO AT LEAST THE WRN IWD/CMX TAF SITES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO CAUSE
ANY LO CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF SE TO S GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER WRLY TO 20 KNOTS MON AFTERNOON
AND MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 310838
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN IT. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN FOR SUN.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN DIMINISHING POPS AND
PCPN THIS FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN FOG WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN
THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
AND WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GETTING INTO THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD BUT THAT GIVES WAY TO SHALLOW RIDGING BY MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH
WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AND DRY/COOLER AIR SETTLING
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ON
LABOR DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS FOR THE MOST
PART TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT
FALL BLO NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY.

THUNDER CHANCES AND STRENGTH ON LABOR DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER THIS WEEK.

LABOR DAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DRIVING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
DAKOTAS LIFTS OVER ONTARIO TO START THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON/IDAHO TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN
SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO LEADING SHORTWAVE. SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOSTLY IMPACTS CWA
IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS AS DURING THIS PERIOD OF FORCING/LIFT THERE IS A H85
JET UP TO 50 KTS FM THE SOUTHWEST/0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND 1-6KM
MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. FREEZING LEVEL IS BTWN 12-13KFT WITH STORM
CORES HAVING TO REACH ABOVE 35 KFT FOR POTENTIAL OF ONE-INCH HAIL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. BY AFTN...MLCAPES SPIKE UP WELL OVER 1000
J/KG ESPECIALLY CNTRL CWA...BUT SFC FRONT IS ON ITS WAY ACROSS CWA BY
THAT TIME AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF SFC
FRONT SLOWS UP...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY...ISOLD STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. RISK OF SEVERE STILL
THERE AS WELL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KTS. MAX TEMPS ON LABOR DAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT SEEMS THAT MANY AREAS
WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

FRONT CLEARS EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE WNW
WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR
60S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY MAY START TO SEE
WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS/GEM-NH AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY BUT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH ONLY WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHOWN. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. LAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF ARE
SHOWING GREATER SIGNAL OF THIS OCCURRING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE UPR LAKES ALONG WITH LARGE AREA OF ML
MUCAPES OVER 1000-1500 J/KG UPSTREAM WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLD STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WOULD BE NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY COULD GET QUITE WARM AS H85
TEMPS SURGE TOWARD +20C. WITH FULL SUNSHINE THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S IF NOT LOWER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD
CONSENSUS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED ADJUSTING IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.

THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA...
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH OF MOST CWA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING VFR SC CIGS AT IWD AND CMX TO DISSIPATE AS HI PRES
BLDS OVER WRN UPR MI UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR
DISTURBANCE. WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE BLDG HI...EXPECT RADIATION FOG
TO DVLP AND DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LINGERING HI SFC DEWPTS. A MORE STEADY...
UPSLOPE N WIND OFF LK SUP WL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLDS WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER RADIATION
FOG AT SAW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LO CLDS TO
MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST
AT SAW AS AN UPSLOPE NE VEERING SE WIND DVLPS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI SHIFTING TO THE E. A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL OVERSPREAD THE
UPR LKS THIS EVNG BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...A LLJ WL DVLP AND MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO AT LEAST THE WRN IWD/CMX TAF SITES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO CAUSE
ANY LO CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN FORM AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07









000
FXUS63 KMQT 310838
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN IT. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN FOR SUN.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN DIMINISHING POPS AND
PCPN THIS FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN FOG WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN
THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
AND WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GETTING INTO THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPPER LEVELS FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD BUT THAT GIVES WAY TO SHALLOW RIDGING BY MID WEEK. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM ROCKIES TO CENTRAL CANADA BY LATE THIS WEEK...WITH
WARM SW FLOW ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AND DRY/COOLER AIR SETTLING
OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ON
LABOR DAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA AHEAD AND
ALONG THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPS FOR THE MOST
PART TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT
FALL BLO NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY.

THUNDER CHANCES AND STRENGTH ON LABOR DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IMPACT WEATHER THIS WEEK.

LABOR DAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DRIVING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
DAKOTAS LIFTS OVER ONTARIO TO START THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON/IDAHO TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN
SFC LOW WILL BE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR CLOSER TO LEADING SHORTWAVE. SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOSTLY IMPACTS CWA
IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR
STRONGER STORMS AS DURING THIS PERIOD OF FORCING/LIFT THERE IS A H85
JET UP TO 50 KTS FM THE SOUTHWEST/0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND 1-6KM
MUCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. FREEZING LEVEL IS BTWN 12-13KFT WITH STORM
CORES HAVING TO REACH ABOVE 35 KFT FOR POTENTIAL OF ONE-INCH HAIL.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. BY AFTN...MLCAPES SPIKE UP WELL OVER 1000
J/KG ESPECIALLY CNTRL CWA...BUT SFC FRONT IS ON ITS WAY ACROSS CWA BY
THAT TIME AND LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF SFC
FRONT SLOWS UP...EVEN JUST SLIGHTLY...ISOLD STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. RISK OF SEVERE STILL
THERE AS WELL WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KTS. MAX TEMPS ON LABOR DAY
HIGHLY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...BUT SEEMS THAT MANY AREAS
WILL SEE READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE GUSTY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN SHORE.

FRONT CLEARS EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ACROSS FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE WNW
WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORE COOLER ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR
60S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY MAY START TO SEE
WEAKER SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS UPR LAKES. GFS/GEM-NH AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF ON WEDNESDAY BUT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH ONLY WEAKER SHORTWAVES SHOWN. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. LAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF ARE
SHOWING GREATER SIGNAL OF THIS OCCURRING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED INTO THE UPR LAKES ALONG WITH LARGE AREA OF ML
MUCAPES OVER 1000-1500 J/KG UPSTREAM WITH LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLD STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SFC BASED STORMS ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS LATER IN THE DAY WOULD BE NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY COULD GET QUITE WARM AS H85
TEMPS SURGE TOWARD +20C. WITH FULL SUNSHINE THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S IF NOT LOWER 90S. CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE TOWARD
CONSENSUS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED ADJUSTING IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.

THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA...
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH OF MOST CWA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING VFR SC CIGS AT IWD AND CMX TO DISSIPATE AS HI PRES
BLDS OVER WRN UPR MI UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR
DISTURBANCE. WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE BLDG HI...EXPECT RADIATION FOG
TO DVLP AND DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LINGERING HI SFC DEWPTS. A MORE STEADY...
UPSLOPE N WIND OFF LK SUP WL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLDS WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER RADIATION
FOG AT SAW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LO CLDS TO
MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST
AT SAW AS AN UPSLOPE NE VEERING SE WIND DVLPS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI SHIFTING TO THE E. A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL OVERSPREAD THE
UPR LKS THIS EVNG BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...A LLJ WL DVLP AND MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO AT LEAST THE WRN IWD/CMX TAF SITES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO CAUSE
ANY LO CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN FORM AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 310526
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN IT. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN FOR SUN.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN DIMINISHING POPS AND
PCPN THIS FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN FOG WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN
THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
AND WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GETTING INTO THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUN NIGHT AND MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXIT REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL CATCH UP WITH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT INITIALLY
FROM FROM THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE AND
JET EXIT REGION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA MON...WITH A 997MB LOW FORMING
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER AND DEEPENING TO AROUND 988MB WHILE
MOVING TO HUDSON BAY BY 06Z TUE. THIS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...WRN UPPER MI BY 18Z MON...CENTRAL UPPER
MI BY 00Z TUE AND JUST E OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUE. WHILE PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE CWA...EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. MODEL
QPF FIELDS HINT AT THE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE OF IF/WHEN/WHERE THAT COULD HAPPEN IS
QUITE LOW. ALSO...WHILE THE KINEMATICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE
STRONG /0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS/...THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR CAPE BUILDUP WILL BE OVER THE
ERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL NOT MOVE IN AS EARLY. STILL TOO
EARLY/UNCERTAIN TO HAVE GOOD FEEL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

TUE LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONAL AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
9-11C...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

FORECAST FOR WED THROUGH NEXT SAT IS UNCERTAIN AS ZONAL FLOW LOOKS
TO BE THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EACH
OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN ON A FEW POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OR NEARBY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES FAVOR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE...IT DOES
APPEAR A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THU...WITH TEMPS
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WILL USE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING VFR SC CIGS AT IWD AND CMX TO DISSIPATE AS HI PRES
BLDS OVER WRN UPR MI UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR
DISTURBANCE. WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE BLDG HI...EXPECT RADIATION FOG
TO DVLP AND DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LINGERING HI SFC DEWPTS. A MORE STEADY...
UPSLOPE N WIND OFF LK SUP WL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLDS WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER RADIATION
FOG AT SAW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LO CLDS TO
MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST
AT SAW AS AN UPSLOPE NE VEERING SE WIND DVLPS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI SHIFTING TO THE E. A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL OVERSPREAD THE
UPR LKS THIS EVNG BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...A LLJ WL DVLP AND MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO AT LEAST THE WRN IWD/CMX TAF SITES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO CAUSE
ANY LO CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN FORM AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 310526
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN IT. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN FOR SUN.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN DIMINISHING POPS AND
PCPN THIS FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN FOG WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN
THE GOING FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
AND WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GETTING INTO THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUN NIGHT AND MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXIT REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL CATCH UP WITH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT INITIALLY
FROM FROM THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE AND
JET EXIT REGION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA MON...WITH A 997MB LOW FORMING
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER AND DEEPENING TO AROUND 988MB WHILE
MOVING TO HUDSON BAY BY 06Z TUE. THIS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...WRN UPPER MI BY 18Z MON...CENTRAL UPPER
MI BY 00Z TUE AND JUST E OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUE. WHILE PRECIP LOOKS
TO BE A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE CWA...EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COUPLE OF FACTORS. MODEL
QPF FIELDS HINT AT THE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE OF IF/WHEN/WHERE THAT COULD HAPPEN IS
QUITE LOW. ALSO...WHILE THE KINEMATICS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE
STRONG /0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS/...THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR CAPE BUILDUP WILL BE OVER THE
ERN CWA WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL NOT MOVE IN AS EARLY. STILL TOO
EARLY/UNCERTAIN TO HAVE GOOD FEEL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

TUE LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONAL AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
9-11C...LEADING TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

FORECAST FOR WED THROUGH NEXT SAT IS UNCERTAIN AS ZONAL FLOW LOOKS
TO BE THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EACH
OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN ON A FEW POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OR NEARBY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES FAVOR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE...IT DOES
APPEAR A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THU...WITH TEMPS
RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. WILL USE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT LINGERING VFR SC CIGS AT IWD AND CMX TO DISSIPATE AS HI PRES
BLDS OVER WRN UPR MI UNDER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR
DISTURBANCE. WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE BLDG HI...EXPECT RADIATION FOG
TO DVLP AND DROP CONDITIONS TO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR IN THE PRESENCE
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/LINGERING HI SFC DEWPTS. A MORE STEADY...
UPSLOPE N WIND OFF LK SUP WL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT SAW. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE CLDS WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THICKER RADIATION
FOG AT SAW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING FOG/LO CLDS TO
MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS PROCESS WL BE SLOWEST
AT SAW AS AN UPSLOPE NE VEERING SE WIND DVLPS ON THE WRN FLANK OF
SFC HI SHIFTING TO THE E. A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL OVERSPREAD THE
UPR LKS THIS EVNG BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI AND AN APRCHG COLD FNT.
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...A LLJ WL DVLP AND MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO BRING MARGINAL LLWS TO AT LEAST THE WRN IWD/CMX TAF SITES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO CAUSE
ANY LO CLDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN FORM AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








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