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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172324
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LEAVING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMERGES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV SILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
PCPN INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN WOULD SPREAD MAINLY THROUGH THE ERN
HALF OF UPPER MI IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN DEVELOPS...PER GFS...THE
WEST COULD ALSO SEE PCPN AOA 0.5 INCH.

MON...THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THE RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF EARLY IF THE
PCPN INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH.

TUE-FRI...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERY PCPN... MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. THE 12Z/17 ECMWF THAT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO TUE WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BY
FRI...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TNGT...
EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE N...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS
AT CMX AND SAW. THE CLOSER APRCH OF HI PRES WL CAUSE DIMINISHING
WINDS BY SUNRISE ON SAT. DESPITE THE COLD FROPA...DRY LLVL AIR WL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 172324
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LEAVING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMERGES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV SILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
PCPN INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN WOULD SPREAD MAINLY THROUGH THE ERN
HALF OF UPPER MI IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN DEVELOPS...PER GFS...THE
WEST COULD ALSO SEE PCPN AOA 0.5 INCH.

MON...THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THE RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF EARLY IF THE
PCPN INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH.

TUE-FRI...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERY PCPN... MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. THE 12Z/17 ECMWF THAT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO TUE WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BY
FRI...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TNGT...
EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE N...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS
AT CMX AND SAW. THE CLOSER APRCH OF HI PRES WL CAUSE DIMINISHING
WINDS BY SUNRISE ON SAT. DESPITE THE COLD FROPA...DRY LLVL AIR WL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 172324
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LEAVING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMERGES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV SILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
PCPN INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN WOULD SPREAD MAINLY THROUGH THE ERN
HALF OF UPPER MI IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN DEVELOPS...PER GFS...THE
WEST COULD ALSO SEE PCPN AOA 0.5 INCH.

MON...THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THE RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF EARLY IF THE
PCPN INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH.

TUE-FRI...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERY PCPN... MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. THE 12Z/17 ECMWF THAT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO TUE WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BY
FRI...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TNGT...
EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE N...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS
AT CMX AND SAW. THE CLOSER APRCH OF HI PRES WL CAUSE DIMINISHING
WINDS BY SUNRISE ON SAT. DESPITE THE COLD FROPA...DRY LLVL AIR WL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 172044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LEAVING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMERGES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV SILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
PCPN INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN WOULD SPREAD MAINLY THROUGH THE ERN
HALF OF UPPER MI IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN DEVELOPS...PER GFS...THE
WEST COULD ALSO SEE PCPN AOA 0.5 INCH.

MON...THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THE RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF EARLY IF THE
PCPN INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH.

TUE-FRI...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERY PCPN... MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. THE 12Z/17 ECMWF THAT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO TUE WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BY
FRI...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 172044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LEAVING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMERGES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV SILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
PCPN INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN WOULD SPREAD MAINLY THROUGH THE ERN
HALF OF UPPER MI IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN DEVELOPS...PER GFS...THE
WEST COULD ALSO SEE PCPN AOA 0.5 INCH.

MON...THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THE RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF EARLY IF THE
PCPN INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH.

TUE-FRI...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERY PCPN... MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. THE 12Z/17 ECMWF THAT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO TUE WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BY
FRI...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 172044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION TOWARD COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE LEAVING A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-50 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
EMERGES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV SILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
PCPN INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVIER RAIN WOULD SPREAD MAINLY THROUGH THE ERN
HALF OF UPPER MI IN LINE WITH THE TRACK OF THE 850-700 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...IF AN AREA OF STRONG 800-600 FGEN DEVELOPS...PER GFS...THE
WEST COULD ALSO SEE PCPN AOA 0.5 INCH.

MON...THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE THE RAIN COULD BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HALF EARLY IF THE
PCPN INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH.

TUE-FRI...THE LARGE COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED
OVER OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THU. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING
DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA
WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERY PCPN... MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. THE 12Z/17 ECMWF THAT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO TUE WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. BY
FRI...EXPECT A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 171840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 171840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 171840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED YET
AGAIN TODAY AS A SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE CWA. SHOULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS TONIGHT RIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE N OF THE CWA. 6 HOUR SFC PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB AS A 1026MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY SAT MORNING...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WINDS TO GUST
TO 30-35MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
06Z...BUT WILL CALM DOWN TO BELOW 20MPH BY 12Z SAT.

SAT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT AS MIXING INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR /DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS UP TO 50 DEGREES ALOFT/ WILL OCCUR. THIS BRING MIN
RH VALUES AGAIN INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W AND IN THE
LOW-MID 20S OVER THE INTERIOR E. THANKFULLY...WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LESS THAN 20MPH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CRITICAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES
SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE
THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF LK
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 171733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 171733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 171733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 171733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY JUST IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 171102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY
DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 171102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY
DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 171102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY
DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 171102
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THEY
DECREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 170814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR A TIME JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 170814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR A TIME JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 170814
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LAKES IS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM.
SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW IS OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION OF SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TAIL OF LEAD SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER QUEBEC IS PROPELLING WEAK
FRONT OVER UPR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. MOISTER SFC SW FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT HAS SUPPORTED SHALLOW FOG OFF LK MICHIGAN SINCE LAST EVENING.
VSBY STILL 1SM OR LESS FM KESC TO KERY. WEB CAMS NOT VERY FOGGY
THOUGH SO APPEARS LOCALIZED. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION UNTIL BLYR
WINDS TURN WNW...BY AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. MIXING TO H85-H8 LIKELY WHICH WILL
GIVE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST
WEST INTERIOR. WITH A MORE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION...ISQ WILL RISE
MAYBE TO OVER 60 DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S
SEEN LAST COUPLE DAYS. A BIT MORE MOIST TO START DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST...BUT DEEPER MIXING INTO DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO FALL BLO 20 PCT AGAIN THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF. FORTUNATELY
FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT MAINLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. WILL SEE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA...MAYBE JUST A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT COMPARED TO CURRENT FROPA. AS TAME AS THIS FROPA IS THIS
MORNING...FROPA TONIGHT WILL HAVE MORE BITE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. INCREASED WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISE AND
DOWNWARD MOTION JUST IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER TRIES TO REMAIN...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE AND PUNCH OF DOWNWARD
MOTION SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE EAST HALF OF CWA 03Z-09Z AND MAY EVEN SEE 35-40 MPH GUSTS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR SHORE MARQUETTE TO WHITEFISH POINT. BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 MPH. LAST ITEM FOR TONIGHT
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUPPOSE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WEST AND NCNTRL COULD SEE THE CLOUDS...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY
GIVEN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS...BOTH AHEAD OF FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP RUNNING WITH A DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SCENARIO WITH THE
FROPA. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR A TIME JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

PREVAILING CONDITION OVER LK SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WINDS 25 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL
BE SOME EXCEPTIONS THOUGH. FIRST...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A FRONT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE MAY EVEN BE
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR. WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS
WILL GET CHOPPY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER
FAR WESTERN LK SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES SCNTRL CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF LK SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD LK
SUPERIOR.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 170727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR A TIME JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 170727
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR LKS BEHIND A DEPARTING LO PRES TROF WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO UPR MI TODAY. A COLD FNT
ATTENDANT TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO TNGT WL CROSS THE
U.P. BUT THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN AND EVEN MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLDS...SO VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR A TIME JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 170707
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID CLDS WL MOVE ACROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG AS A
WEAK LO PRES TROF CROSSES THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER HI PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THIS TROF WL
CAUSE VFR WX TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ON FRI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 170707
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID CLDS WL MOVE ACROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG AS A
WEAK LO PRES TROF CROSSES THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER HI PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THIS TROF WL
CAUSE VFR WX TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ON FRI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 170707
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID CLDS WL MOVE ACROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG AS A
WEAK LO PRES TROF CROSSES THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER HI PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THIS TROF WL
CAUSE VFR WX TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ON FRI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 170707
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
307 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NAM SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW IN CO 12Z SAT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SAT MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH AND THE
500 MB LOW HEAD EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO DELAY
POPS A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH DRY EAST FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DRY AIR IN AND SLOW
ADVANCE OF PCPN IN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SUN EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS OUT OF THIS EVENT FROM
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.40-0.75 INCH
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST AND LOOKS WIDESPREAD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z
MON. THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z TUE. BIG
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP 12Z WED WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE 500 MB LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS TAKES THE LOW UP TO JAMES BAY. UPPER
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR 12Z THU. WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN
THE AREA...LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO HAVING SOME
POPS IN LOOKS GOOD. ALSO LOOKS COLDER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED. RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS STILL LOOKS GOOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID CLDS WL MOVE ACROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG AS A
WEAK LO PRES TROF CROSSES THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER HI PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THIS TROF WL
CAUSE VFR WX TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ON FRI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 162352
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI NIGHT...MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STRONGER 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SAT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING TO AROUND K FT IN THE DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.25 INCH SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F AND
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 20-25 PCT RANGE. HOWEVER...LIGHT EAST WINDS
BELOW 10 MPH WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE WX POTENTIAL.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-45 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO
MN AND A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES FRO THE SSW. THE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE
ENHANCED BY HARDER TO TIME SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MON MORNING...PER MODEL TRENDS.

MON...COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY SLOT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA WILL MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SCT LIGHT RA/SN.

TUE-THU...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
NRN LAKES THROUGH WED NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING
AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN
BOTH DAYS....MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID CLDS WL MOVE ACROSS UPR MI THIS EVNG AS A
WEAK LO PRES TROF CROSSES THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER HI PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THIS TROF WL
CAUSE VFR WX TO PERSIST THRU THE DAY ON FRI.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 162033
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI NIGHT...MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STRONGER 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SAT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING TO AROUND K FT IN THE DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.25 INCH SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F AND
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 20-25 PCT RANGE. HOWEVER...LIGHT EAST WINDS
BELOW 10 MPH WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE WX POTENTIAL.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-45 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO
MN AND A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES FRO THE SSW. THE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE
ENHANCED BY HARDER TO TIME SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MON MORNING...PER MODEL TRENDS.

MON...COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY SLOT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA WILL MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SCT LIGHT RA/SN.

TUE-THU...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
NRN LAKES THROUGH WED NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING
AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN
BOTH DAYS....MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 162033
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FRI NIGHT...MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STRONGER 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SO...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SAT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. MIXING TO AROUND K FT IN THE DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.25 INCH SHOULD DROP DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 20F AND
MIN RH VALUES INTO THE 20-25 PCT RANGE. HOWEVER...LIGHT EAST WINDS
BELOW 10 MPH WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE WX POTENTIAL.

SAT NIGHT...SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND A SFC TROUGH INTO WRN MN BY 12Z/SUN WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 40-45 KNOT 850 MB
WINDS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TOWARD THE WRN CWA BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT...MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE STRONGEST AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION (PWAT OVER 1 INCH) AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
UPPER MI LATE SUN THROUGH SUN EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO
MN AND A SFC TROUGH APPROACHES FRO THE SSW. THE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE
ENHANCED BY HARDER TO TIME SHORTWAVES EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MON MORNING...PER MODEL TRENDS.

MON...COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH THE DRY SLOT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA WILL MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SCT LIGHT RA/SN.

TUE-THU...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE
NRN LAKES THROUGH WED NIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING
AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION FAVORS AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN
BOTH DAYS....MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS WELL
DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST S
CNTRL. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 161945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 161945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E INTO THE
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROHIBITIVE TO PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER UPPER MI...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. SFC RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR W.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP SFC
TEMPS WARMER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S E TO THE LOW 40S
ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRI AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. AMPLE MIXING WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 OVER THE CENTRAL AND W TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S E. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID TEENS...BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY WHILE MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 161728
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 161728
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 161728
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 161728
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 161142
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EVEN THOUGH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI
PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SFC TROUGH TO
CROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW. WINDS
SHOULD STAY LIGHT THOUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LGT SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 161142
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EVEN THOUGH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI
PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SFC TROUGH TO
CROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW. WINDS
SHOULD STAY LIGHT THOUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LGT SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 161142
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EVEN THOUGH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI
PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SFC TROUGH TO
CROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW. WINDS
SHOULD STAY LIGHT THOUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LGT SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 161142
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

EVEN THOUGH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI
PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A SFC TROUGH TO
CROSS UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW. WINDS
SHOULD STAY LIGHT THOUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A LGT SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 161058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
658 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 161058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
658 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 161058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
658 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 161058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
658 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DECIDED TO PUT SPRINKLES INTO FORECAST OVER EASTERN CWA /ISQ-ERY/
MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS BAND OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHRA WILL BE RUNNING INTO
THE DRY AIRMASS OVER AREA AS SEEN ON 00Z APX AND DTX RAOBS...THINK
ENOUGH FOCUS FM SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 IS GOING
TO END UP STRONG/PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH THE LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS AND THE 06Z/07Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY
OUTPUT POINT TO AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES.
BEEFED UP SKY COVER SOME MORE AS WELL. OTHER THAN TWEAKS FOR VERY
SHORT TERM TEMP/DWPNT TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 160840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 160840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS TODAY BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
CROSSES MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CUTOFF LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS
OF SW CONUS. WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY LIFTING INTO THE RIDGE BRINGING
A PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND H7. DECENT AREA OF
SHRA IS LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTH EDGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT H85-H7 AND THIS COULD BRING VIRGA OR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO EASTERN CWA...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS KESC PER HRRR
MODEL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. ELSEWHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS AS CIRRUS AND MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF
AC/AS OVER MN SLIDES IN FOR THE AFTN. EVEN SO THOUGH...WARM START
SHOULD STILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. RH VALUES A
BIT HIGHER THAN BONE DRY CONDITIONS SEEN TUE/WED WHERE RH BOTTOMED
OUT AROUND 10 PCT OVER INTERIOR WEST. FOR TODAY IN THOSE AREAS...
EXPECT MAINLY 18-25 PCT RANGE AT THE LOW-END. WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES CNTRL. OVERALL APPEARS TO NOT BE
AS MUCH OF ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO TUE OR WED.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT WITH
TAIL OF ENHANCED CLOUD GRAZING CWA...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
TROUGH...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT FM SW TO NW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE 1000-
700MB LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH...OVER 7C/KM BY LATE AFTN...AND FORCING
IS MOVING THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALOFT...THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/VIRGA THIS EVENING AS THE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED MON AFTN/EVENING. THAT
SAID...WINDS IN MIXED LAYER THIS EVENING DO INCREASE BY 03Z WITH 25-
30 KTS AT TOP PARTS OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO...FEASIBLE THAT GUSTY
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED CU OR
VIRGA/SPRINKLES. ALL FORCING IS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS GIVEN
THE WINDS AND CLOUDS MOST OF THE NIGHT AND LACK OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

NO WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THERE WILL BE A FEW PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BLO 20 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWING OVER SCNTRL CANADA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT
IN SETUP FOR STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD
HEAD OF LK SUPERIOR NEAR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR. BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR WHILE WINDS DIMINISH IN
THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WHILE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER LOW LIFTING IN FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS COMBINED LOW AS IT MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 160837
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BEGINNING FRI...MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC UPPER JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA.
DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND UPPER DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET
APPEAR TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH INTO ONTARIO WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING 70F IN A FEW
SPOTS AS INTERIOR RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PCT KEEPING FIRE WX A
CONCERN. WEST WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BLO 15 MPH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI
NIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING
UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT
ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S. FOR THE
INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HANDLING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST SURGE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOC
WITH LEAD ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM REMNANTS OF SRN ROCKIES CLOSED
LOW AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORT
RAIN MOVING INTO FCST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND MAIN SURGE OF PCPN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MID-LVL TROF FM
THE PLAINS TAKES ON A NEG-TILT WHILE ROTATING EAST TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV WILL SUPPORT THIS SECOND SURGE OF
PCPN. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING
WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED IN THE
VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME
HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU THE AREA WITHIN
THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY
PCPN BOTH DAYS....MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS
WELL DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTN INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO THE
ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY REMAINING
SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 160837
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BEGINNING FRI...MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC UPPER JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA.
DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND UPPER DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET
APPEAR TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH INTO ONTARIO WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING 70F IN A FEW
SPOTS AS INTERIOR RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PCT KEEPING FIRE WX A
CONCERN. WEST WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BLO 15 MPH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI
NIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING
UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT
ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S. FOR THE
INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HANDLING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST SURGE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOC
WITH LEAD ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM REMNANTS OF SRN ROCKIES CLOSED
LOW AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORT
RAIN MOVING INTO FCST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND MAIN SURGE OF PCPN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MID-LVL TROF FM
THE PLAINS TAKES ON A NEG-TILT WHILE ROTATING EAST TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV WILL SUPPORT THIS SECOND SURGE OF
PCPN. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING
WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED IN THE
VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME
HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU THE AREA WITHIN
THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY
PCPN BOTH DAYS....MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS
WELL DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTN INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO THE
ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY REMAINING
SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 160609
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 160609
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 160609
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 160609
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 152328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS ON THU AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES TNGT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 152328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS ON THU AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES TNGT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 152328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS ON THU AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES TNGT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 152328
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS ON THU AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
INCRSG S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES TNGT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 152037
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 152037
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 152037
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

AFTER A QUIET AND GENERALLY WARM REST OF THIS WEEK...SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHARP RIDGE BUILDS THRU WRN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE A DEEP
TROF TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MON. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CLOSED LOWS
FREQUENTLY DEVELOP...AND THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE IN THAT
DIRECTION AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES SHOW
EVOLUTION INTO A LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THE LOW NEXT WEEK
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. SO...AFTER A WARM/DRY REST OF THIS WEEK...NEXT
WEEK WILL BE COLD AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FROM A PCPN PERSPECTIVE...THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SHARP PATTERN AMPLIFICATION INTERACTS WITH WHAT
IS CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TROF CLOSING OFF OVER UT/CO.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PICKING UP THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND
FORCING THE OPENED UP SYSTEM/REMNANT ENERGY NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES STILL INCLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT TO MINIMAL PCPN
IF THE SRN ENERGY DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W WITHIN THE
AMPLIFYING PATTERN. OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE
ENERGY DRAMATICALLY AS IT LIFTS NE (WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF
THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS)...SO THE LOWEST PROBABILITY OUTCOME RIGHT NOW
IS ONE THAT BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN PRODUCING SYSTEM WITH A
PROMINENT DEFORMATION PCPN SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THAT SAID...THERE HAVE BEEN AND THERE STILL ARE SOME GFS/GEM
ENSEMBLES THAT DO SHOW SUCH A SCENARIO...SO IT CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM HUDSON BAY
INTO QUEBEC WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE...WEAK AT THAT...PASS N OF THE AREA...SUPPORTING BEST
CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK FORCING/WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL SUGGEST PROSPECT OF
ANY PCPN IS VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. THUS...WILL RETAIN DRY
FCST FOR THU NIGHT.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU AFTN TO NRN ONTARIO FRI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE WITH GEM/GFS/NAM
MOVING TO THE ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN FARTHER N THAN THOSE
MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE JUST N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR...BEST FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL PASS BY TO
THE N. REMOVED SCHC POPS FROM INHERITED FCST IN FAVOR OF DRY
WEATHER. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRI IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.
A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F. INTERIOR RH SHOULD FALL TO 25-30PCT...
AND WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY TO 15-20MPH AT TIMES...KEEPING FIRE
WX A CONCERN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT
WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT
OF THE 30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT
AND RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT APPEARS THERE MAY
END UP BEING TWO SURGES OF PCPN OR SFC LOW PRES WAVES...ONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD ENERGY SWINGING UP FROM MEXICO AND A SECOND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN REMNANT OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL LOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO UPPER MI SUN
AND THEN CONTINUE INTO MON. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE
WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR
WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR
ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THRU THE AREA WITHIN THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERY PCPN (MOSTLY SNOW BUT SOME RAIN AS WELL DURING
PEAK HEATING) BOTH DAYS WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTN INLAND FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING IS BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 151933
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 151933
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 151933
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 151933
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 151732
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 151732
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 151732
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 151732
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 151140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT BOTH
KIWD AND KSAW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS AT KIWD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS INCREASE JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 151140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT BOTH
KIWD AND KSAW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS AT KIWD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS INCREASE JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 151140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT BOTH
KIWD AND KSAW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS AT KIWD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS INCREASE JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 151140
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME
MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT BOTH
KIWD AND KSAW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS AT KIWD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS INCREASE JUST OFF THE SURFACE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 150853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 150853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 150853
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS
INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A
BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH
RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX
RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50
PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED
EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS
TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH
FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR
ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH.
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER
SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT
LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY
AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST
THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW.
MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS
SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE
OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE
LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET
WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH
GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM
AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS
COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND.

BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS
AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT
RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH
TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY
MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA
THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC
LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT
MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH
TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO
THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A
HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW-
END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES
NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE
STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT
NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON
GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME
HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW
LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON
WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
HYDROLOGY...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 150523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI REMAINS
DOMINATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LAST COUPLE OF
SOUNDINGS FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...IT CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY.
PW VALUES AROUND DAYBREAK WERE AROUND 0.17IN. AT 13Z THE RH VALUE AT
DLH WAS ALREADY BELOW 30 PERCENT. HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB.

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25IN OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE E
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS
OUT OF THE S OVER THE W HALF THIRD IN THE MORNING TO EXPAND OVER THE
W HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOSER TO THE NEARING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA THROUGH E CO AND FAR N TX. EXPECT
TEMPS TO MIX TO AROUND 850MB. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE OFFSET FROM OUR PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. STILL ANTICIPATING A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS NEARING 17-
20KTS. WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST /EXCEPT IN THE 50S ALONG
LAKE MI/...AND ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD
DROP INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL BUT THE E THIRD OF THE CWA
AND THE N HALF OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH
VALUES...WHICH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE COMBINATION OF
SSE WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS ACROSS THE WEST...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES PLUMMETING
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST HAS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND 2 ISSUES. THE FIRST IS THE TROF THAT IS
NOW OVER THE WRN STATES. ENERGY IN THIS TROF IS FCST TO SEPARATE OUT
OF THE MAIN FLOW AND FORM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES IN THE COMING DAYS. THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVES TO THE N IN THE MAIN FLOW...AND THE EVENTUAL SHARP
AMPLIFICATION OF THAT FLOW THAT WILL PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THE DEGREE OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE KEY TO WHAT HAPPENS HERE LATER
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES INCLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
TO MINIMAL PCPN IF THE SRN SYSTEM DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN. BASED ON GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES...A
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME AT
THIS TIME. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SCENARIO
FOR DAYS...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE THE
OUTCOME IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN. IN THE MEANTIME...DRY/WARM WEATHER
WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH THE MAIN
FLOW N OF THE AREA. THE AFORMENTIONED UPCOMING PRONOUNCED PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SHARP
RIDGE BUILDING N THRU WRN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF PROBABLY
CENTERED IN THE HUDSON BAY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OBVIOUS RESULT
OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE A RETURN TO COLD CONDITIONS/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD SUPPORT
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT E OF THE
AREA WHILE DECAYING ENERGY FROM THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WRN LAKES. DRY AIR AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LINGERS WED
NIGHT WITH MAIN PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD LWR MI.
THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME THICKENING OF HIGH
CLOUDS.

ON INTO THU...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO LWR MI WED NIGHT SHUNTED
EASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE IN THE MAIN FLOW TRACKING FROM MANITOBA TO
HUDSON BAY...IT APPEARS ANY LIGHT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING
ENGERY LIFTING THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS E OF THE FCST AREA.
MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO HUDSON BAY WILL
APPROACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND PASS ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE PASS N OF THE AREA...
SUPPORTING BEST CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK
FORCING/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL
SUGGEST PROSPECT OF ANY -SHRA ARE VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FCST FOR THU/THU NIGHT.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT THRU THE DAY THU...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THU AFTN THAN WED AFTN...HELPING TO EASE FIRE WX CONCERNS
EVEN THOUGH RH WILL FALL TO 20-25PCT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU TO NRN ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES FRI. MODELS HAVE
OVERALL SHOWN SOME NORTHWARD TREND WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE FARTHEST N...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. 12Z NAM/GEM ARE FARTHER S. THE
12Z GFS IS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE 06Z GFS WHICH WAS QUITE
THE OUTLIER SHOWING WAVE DIGGING ENOUGH TO CATCH THE MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...THE GFS DEVELOPS MUCH MORE PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT WILL STILL
SHOW LOW POPS FOR -SHRA FRI/FRI NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BE A MUCH
COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KEWEENAW
EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT OF THE
30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 60F.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SUN THRU TUE. 12Z
GUIDANCE TODAY DID NOT REALLY CLARIFY HOW THE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SHARPENING RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA...SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM/DEEP...COLD MID-LEVEL LOW TO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY WILL GET PICKED UP AND FORCED NE TO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME SORT OF INTERACTION WITH AMPLIFYING ENERGY
DIGGING SSE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FCST WILL REFLECT A
CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT/PREVIOUS MODELS...RESULTING IN CHC
POPS SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND CONTINUING THRU MON. CHC
FOR SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE ASSUMING TROF OVER THE
AREA OR DEEP COLD MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PTYPE WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN INITIALLY SUN TO MAINLY SNOW
LATE MON INTO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S
HUDSON BAY THROUGH LOWER MI WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS TO
JAMES BAY-LAKE HURON. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXIT INTO
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA
SURGES NE TO S HUDSON BAY. THE LINGERING RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL CROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER WATER LEVELS AT A FEW RIVERS...MAINLY THE
TRAP ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN
HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR ALSTON IN BARAGA COUNTY...THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO
THE CONFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM...AND THE ESCANABA
RIVER. LOW END ADVISORIES AND OTHER STATEMENTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

OTHER RIVERS...LIKE THE MICHIGAMME RIVER IS SLOWLY RISING
TOO...THANKS TO SNOW STILL UPSTREAM /NEAR THE PESHEKEE RIVER/.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 150523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI REMAINS
DOMINATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LAST COUPLE OF
SOUNDINGS FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...IT CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY.
PW VALUES AROUND DAYBREAK WERE AROUND 0.17IN. AT 13Z THE RH VALUE AT
DLH WAS ALREADY BELOW 30 PERCENT. HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB.

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25IN OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE E
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS
OUT OF THE S OVER THE W HALF THIRD IN THE MORNING TO EXPAND OVER THE
W HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOSER TO THE NEARING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA THROUGH E CO AND FAR N TX. EXPECT
TEMPS TO MIX TO AROUND 850MB. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE OFFSET FROM OUR PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. STILL ANTICIPATING A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS NEARING 17-
20KTS. WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST /EXCEPT IN THE 50S ALONG
LAKE MI/...AND ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD
DROP INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL BUT THE E THIRD OF THE CWA
AND THE N HALF OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH
VALUES...WHICH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE COMBINATION OF
SSE WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS ACROSS THE WEST...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES PLUMMETING
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST HAS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND 2 ISSUES. THE FIRST IS THE TROF THAT IS
NOW OVER THE WRN STATES. ENERGY IN THIS TROF IS FCST TO SEPARATE OUT
OF THE MAIN FLOW AND FORM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES IN THE COMING DAYS. THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVES TO THE N IN THE MAIN FLOW...AND THE EVENTUAL SHARP
AMPLIFICATION OF THAT FLOW THAT WILL PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THE DEGREE OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE KEY TO WHAT HAPPENS HERE LATER
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES INCLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
TO MINIMAL PCPN IF THE SRN SYSTEM DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN. BASED ON GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES...A
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME AT
THIS TIME. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SCENARIO
FOR DAYS...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE THE
OUTCOME IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN. IN THE MEANTIME...DRY/WARM WEATHER
WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH THE MAIN
FLOW N OF THE AREA. THE AFORMENTIONED UPCOMING PRONOUNCED PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SHARP
RIDGE BUILDING N THRU WRN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF PROBABLY
CENTERED IN THE HUDSON BAY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OBVIOUS RESULT
OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE A RETURN TO COLD CONDITIONS/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD SUPPORT
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT E OF THE
AREA WHILE DECAYING ENERGY FROM THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WRN LAKES. DRY AIR AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LINGERS WED
NIGHT WITH MAIN PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD LWR MI.
THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME THICKENING OF HIGH
CLOUDS.

ON INTO THU...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO LWR MI WED NIGHT SHUNTED
EASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE IN THE MAIN FLOW TRACKING FROM MANITOBA TO
HUDSON BAY...IT APPEARS ANY LIGHT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING
ENGERY LIFTING THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS E OF THE FCST AREA.
MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO HUDSON BAY WILL
APPROACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND PASS ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE PASS N OF THE AREA...
SUPPORTING BEST CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK
FORCING/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL
SUGGEST PROSPECT OF ANY -SHRA ARE VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FCST FOR THU/THU NIGHT.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT THRU THE DAY THU...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THU AFTN THAN WED AFTN...HELPING TO EASE FIRE WX CONCERNS
EVEN THOUGH RH WILL FALL TO 20-25PCT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU TO NRN ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES FRI. MODELS HAVE
OVERALL SHOWN SOME NORTHWARD TREND WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE FARTHEST N...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. 12Z NAM/GEM ARE FARTHER S. THE
12Z GFS IS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE 06Z GFS WHICH WAS QUITE
THE OUTLIER SHOWING WAVE DIGGING ENOUGH TO CATCH THE MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...THE GFS DEVELOPS MUCH MORE PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT WILL STILL
SHOW LOW POPS FOR -SHRA FRI/FRI NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BE A MUCH
COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KEWEENAW
EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT OF THE
30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 60F.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SUN THRU TUE. 12Z
GUIDANCE TODAY DID NOT REALLY CLARIFY HOW THE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SHARPENING RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA...SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM/DEEP...COLD MID-LEVEL LOW TO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY WILL GET PICKED UP AND FORCED NE TO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME SORT OF INTERACTION WITH AMPLIFYING ENERGY
DIGGING SSE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FCST WILL REFLECT A
CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT/PREVIOUS MODELS...RESULTING IN CHC
POPS SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND CONTINUING THRU MON. CHC
FOR SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE ASSUMING TROF OVER THE
AREA OR DEEP COLD MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PTYPE WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN INITIALLY SUN TO MAINLY SNOW
LATE MON INTO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S
HUDSON BAY THROUGH LOWER MI WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS TO
JAMES BAY-LAKE HURON. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXIT INTO
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA
SURGES NE TO S HUDSON BAY. THE LINGERING RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL CROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER WATER LEVELS AT A FEW RIVERS...MAINLY THE
TRAP ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN
HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR ALSTON IN BARAGA COUNTY...THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO
THE CONFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM...AND THE ESCANABA
RIVER. LOW END ADVISORIES AND OTHER STATEMENTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

OTHER RIVERS...LIKE THE MICHIGAMME RIVER IS SLOWLY RISING
TOO...THANKS TO SNOW STILL UPSTREAM /NEAR THE PESHEKEE RIVER/.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 150523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI REMAINS
DOMINATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LAST COUPLE OF
SOUNDINGS FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...IT CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY.
PW VALUES AROUND DAYBREAK WERE AROUND 0.17IN. AT 13Z THE RH VALUE AT
DLH WAS ALREADY BELOW 30 PERCENT. HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB.

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25IN OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE E
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS
OUT OF THE S OVER THE W HALF THIRD IN THE MORNING TO EXPAND OVER THE
W HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOSER TO THE NEARING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA THROUGH E CO AND FAR N TX. EXPECT
TEMPS TO MIX TO AROUND 850MB. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE OFFSET FROM OUR PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. STILL ANTICIPATING A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS NEARING 17-
20KTS. WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST /EXCEPT IN THE 50S ALONG
LAKE MI/...AND ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD
DROP INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL BUT THE E THIRD OF THE CWA
AND THE N HALF OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH
VALUES...WHICH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE COMBINATION OF
SSE WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS ACROSS THE WEST...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES PLUMMETING
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST HAS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND 2 ISSUES. THE FIRST IS THE TROF THAT IS
NOW OVER THE WRN STATES. ENERGY IN THIS TROF IS FCST TO SEPARATE OUT
OF THE MAIN FLOW AND FORM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES IN THE COMING DAYS. THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVES TO THE N IN THE MAIN FLOW...AND THE EVENTUAL SHARP
AMPLIFICATION OF THAT FLOW THAT WILL PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THE DEGREE OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE KEY TO WHAT HAPPENS HERE LATER
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES INCLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
TO MINIMAL PCPN IF THE SRN SYSTEM DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN. BASED ON GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES...A
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME AT
THIS TIME. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SCENARIO
FOR DAYS...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE THE
OUTCOME IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN. IN THE MEANTIME...DRY/WARM WEATHER
WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH THE MAIN
FLOW N OF THE AREA. THE AFORMENTIONED UPCOMING PRONOUNCED PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SHARP
RIDGE BUILDING N THRU WRN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF PROBABLY
CENTERED IN THE HUDSON BAY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OBVIOUS RESULT
OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE A RETURN TO COLD CONDITIONS/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD SUPPORT
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT E OF THE
AREA WHILE DECAYING ENERGY FROM THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WRN LAKES. DRY AIR AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LINGERS WED
NIGHT WITH MAIN PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD LWR MI.
THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME THICKENING OF HIGH
CLOUDS.

ON INTO THU...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO LWR MI WED NIGHT SHUNTED
EASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE IN THE MAIN FLOW TRACKING FROM MANITOBA TO
HUDSON BAY...IT APPEARS ANY LIGHT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING
ENGERY LIFTING THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS E OF THE FCST AREA.
MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO HUDSON BAY WILL
APPROACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND PASS ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE PASS N OF THE AREA...
SUPPORTING BEST CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK
FORCING/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL
SUGGEST PROSPECT OF ANY -SHRA ARE VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FCST FOR THU/THU NIGHT.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT THRU THE DAY THU...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THU AFTN THAN WED AFTN...HELPING TO EASE FIRE WX CONCERNS
EVEN THOUGH RH WILL FALL TO 20-25PCT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU TO NRN ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES FRI. MODELS HAVE
OVERALL SHOWN SOME NORTHWARD TREND WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE FARTHEST N...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. 12Z NAM/GEM ARE FARTHER S. THE
12Z GFS IS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE 06Z GFS WHICH WAS QUITE
THE OUTLIER SHOWING WAVE DIGGING ENOUGH TO CATCH THE MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...THE GFS DEVELOPS MUCH MORE PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT WILL STILL
SHOW LOW POPS FOR -SHRA FRI/FRI NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BE A MUCH
COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KEWEENAW
EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT OF THE
30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 60F.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SUN THRU TUE. 12Z
GUIDANCE TODAY DID NOT REALLY CLARIFY HOW THE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SHARPENING RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA...SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM/DEEP...COLD MID-LEVEL LOW TO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY WILL GET PICKED UP AND FORCED NE TO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME SORT OF INTERACTION WITH AMPLIFYING ENERGY
DIGGING SSE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FCST WILL REFLECT A
CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT/PREVIOUS MODELS...RESULTING IN CHC
POPS SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND CONTINUING THRU MON. CHC
FOR SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE ASSUMING TROF OVER THE
AREA OR DEEP COLD MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PTYPE WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN INITIALLY SUN TO MAINLY SNOW
LATE MON INTO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S
HUDSON BAY THROUGH LOWER MI WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS TO
JAMES BAY-LAKE HURON. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXIT INTO
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA
SURGES NE TO S HUDSON BAY. THE LINGERING RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL CROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER WATER LEVELS AT A FEW RIVERS...MAINLY THE
TRAP ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN
HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR ALSTON IN BARAGA COUNTY...THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO
THE CONFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM...AND THE ESCANABA
RIVER. LOW END ADVISORIES AND OTHER STATEMENTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

OTHER RIVERS...LIKE THE MICHIGAMME RIVER IS SLOWLY RISING
TOO...THANKS TO SNOW STILL UPSTREAM /NEAR THE PESHEKEE RIVER/.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 150523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER MI REMAINS
DOMINATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LAST COUPLE OF
SOUNDINGS FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...IT CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY.
PW VALUES AROUND DAYBREAK WERE AROUND 0.17IN. AT 13Z THE RH VALUE AT
DLH WAS ALREADY BELOW 30 PERCENT. HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB.

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 0.25IN OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS OVER THE E
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS
OUT OF THE S OVER THE W HALF THIRD IN THE MORNING TO EXPAND OVER THE
W HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOSER TO THE NEARING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA THROUGH E CO AND FAR N TX. EXPECT
TEMPS TO MIX TO AROUND 850MB. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE OFFSET FROM OUR PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. STILL ANTICIPATING A FEW DAYTIME GUSTS NEARING 17-
20KTS. WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST /EXCEPT IN THE 50S ALONG
LAKE MI/...AND ALL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD
DROP INTO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN FOR ALL BUT THE E THIRD OF THE CWA
AND THE N HALF OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH
VALUES...WHICH WILL INCREASE FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE COMBINATION OF
SSE WINDS AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS ACROSS THE WEST...MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES PLUMMETING
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FCST HAS MORE THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY. THIS
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND 2 ISSUES. THE FIRST IS THE TROF THAT IS
NOW OVER THE WRN STATES. ENERGY IN THIS TROF IS FCST TO SEPARATE OUT
OF THE MAIN FLOW AND FORM A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES IN THE COMING DAYS. THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVES TO THE N IN THE MAIN FLOW...AND THE EVENTUAL SHARP
AMPLIFICATION OF THAT FLOW THAT WILL PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THE DEGREE OF PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE KEY TO WHAT HAPPENS HERE LATER
THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES INCLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT TO A RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
TO MINIMAL PCPN IF THE SRN SYSTEM DOES NOT LIFT FAR ENOUGH N AND W
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN. BASED ON GFS/GEM ENSEMBLES...A
SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT APPEARS TO BE THE LEAST LIKELY OUTCOME AT
THIS TIME. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SCENARIO
FOR DAYS...LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE THE
OUTCOME IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN. IN THE MEANTIME...DRY/WARM WEATHER
WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH THE MAIN
FLOW N OF THE AREA. THE AFORMENTIONED UPCOMING PRONOUNCED PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SHARP
RIDGE BUILDING N THRU WRN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF PROBABLY
CENTERED IN THE HUDSON BAY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OBVIOUS RESULT
OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE A RETURN TO COLD CONDITIONS/BLO
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK. PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD SUPPORT
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT E OF THE
AREA WHILE DECAYING ENERGY FROM THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/WRN LAKES. DRY AIR AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LINGERS WED
NIGHT WITH MAIN PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD LWR MI.
THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME THICKENING OF HIGH
CLOUDS.

ON INTO THU...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO LWR MI WED NIGHT SHUNTED
EASTWARD BY SHORTWAVE IN THE MAIN FLOW TRACKING FROM MANITOBA TO
HUDSON BAY...IT APPEARS ANY LIGHT -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING
ENGERY LIFTING THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS E OF THE FCST AREA.
MEANWHILE...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO HUDSON BAY WILL
APPROACH THE UPPER LAKES LATE IN THE DAY AND PASS ACROSS THE AREA
THU NIGHT. FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
AND MAIN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE PASS N OF THE AREA...
SUPPORTING BEST CHC OF -SHRA N OF HERE. ACROSS UPPER MI...VERY WEAK
FORCING/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL
SUGGEST PROSPECT OF ANY -SHRA ARE VERY LIMITED AS SHORTWAVE PASSES.
THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FCST FOR THU/THU NIGHT.
WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT THRU THE DAY THU...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THU AFTN THAN WED AFTN...HELPING TO EASE FIRE WX CONCERNS
EVEN THOUGH RH WILL FALL TO 20-25PCT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

IN THE MAIN FLOW TO THE N...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THU TO NRN ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES FRI. MODELS HAVE
OVERALL SHOWN SOME NORTHWARD TREND WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ARE FARTHEST N...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. 12Z NAM/GEM ARE FARTHER S. THE
12Z GFS IS NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE 06Z GFS WHICH WAS QUITE
THE OUTLIER SHOWING WAVE DIGGING ENOUGH TO CATCH THE MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...THE GFS DEVELOPS MUCH MORE PCPN
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT WILL STILL
SHOW LOW POPS FOR -SHRA FRI/FRI NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR
SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BE A MUCH
COOLER DAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KEWEENAW
EASTWARD. RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS SHOULDN`T GET OUT OF THE
30S. IN THE INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 60F.

AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SUN THRU TUE. 12Z
GUIDANCE TODAY DID NOT REALLY CLARIFY HOW THE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SHARPENING RIDGE OVER WRN NAMERICA...SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM/DEEP...COLD MID-LEVEL LOW TO EVOLVE DOWNSTREAM IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. FOR NOW...IT
APPEARS THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY WILL GET PICKED UP AND FORCED NE TO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME SORT OF INTERACTION WITH AMPLIFYING ENERGY
DIGGING SSE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FCST WILL REFLECT A
CONSENSUS APPROACH OF CURRENT/PREVIOUS MODELS...RESULTING IN CHC
POPS SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE SUN AND CONTINUING THRU MON. CHC
FOR SHOWERY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE ASSUMING TROF OVER THE
AREA OR DEEP COLD MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PTYPE WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN INITIALLY SUN TO MAINLY SNOW
LATE MON INTO TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 30KTS. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM S
HUDSON BAY THROUGH LOWER MI WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS TO
JAMES BAY-LAKE HURON. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXIT INTO
QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA
SURGES NE TO S HUDSON BAY. THE LINGERING RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW...THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL CROSS ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGH PRESSURE AVERAGING TO SLIDE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER WATER LEVELS AT A FEW RIVERS...MAINLY THE
TRAP ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN
HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION...THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR ALSTON IN BARAGA COUNTY...THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO
THE CONFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM...AND THE ESCANABA
RIVER. LOW END ADVISORIES AND OTHER STATEMENTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

OTHER RIVERS...LIKE THE MICHIGAMME RIVER IS SLOWLY RISING
TOO...THANKS TO SNOW STILL UPSTREAM /NEAR THE PESHEKEE RIVER/.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
HYDROLOGY...KF




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