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000
FXUS63 KMQT 081157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 081157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 081157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYCLONIC NNW FLOW OF COLD AIR PERSISTS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SN AND MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE THE NNW WINDS WILL BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 081022
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
522 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
NOAM WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH FROM
NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
WRN WI WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING ON ITS N AND NW FLANK
FROM NE MN THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI INTO
NW WI. AT THE SFC...NRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS W UPPER MI AS
LOW PRES OVER CNTRL UPPER MI SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE
LOW HAS DROPPED 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST. OTHERWISE...TEMPS REMAINED NEAR 32F
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA.

TODAY...AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES TO THE SE INTO LOWER MI...EXPECT NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW TO BRING COLDER AIR THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER
MI WITH FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE N TO NNW FLOW
SNOWBELTS AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE. SO...THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LES FOR N TO NNW FLOW LOCATIONS
WILL INCREASE AS 850 MB TEMP FALL INTO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SLR VALUES TO NEAR 25/1 AS THE DGZ
WILL BE SITUATED IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES N CNTRL WHERE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER. ADDITIONAL
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI
TODAY...AND EXIT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. THE RESULT MARINE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS TO 20 TO
30KNOTS WITH AND GALES TO 35KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY-
TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH
THE HEAVIEST FREEZING SPRAY FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS TUESDAY SLOWLY
GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO
SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE START OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 081001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 081001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TO NEAR LAKE HURON BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL ON CAA INTO THE
AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -22C/-25C BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAPPEN AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOT OF COLD AIR SLIDE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THIS TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE DGZ EARLY IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-6KFT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
LATE MORNING INTO THE  AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW 3-4KFT WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT OVER THE WEST. THE DGZ WILL BECOME MUCH
SHALLOWER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST AS THE VERY CHILLY AIR
SLIDES IN ALOFT. NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. WILL
SEE THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 5-7KFT AND A DEEPER CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER IN THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZES. TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAYER ACROSS THE U.P. COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE NORTH CENTRAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORIES
EASTWARD INTO BARAGA...MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE LAYER WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. WILL STILL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH
DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER
TO THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC
ARE SHOWING A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLIDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
NIGHT TO CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS
HAPPENS...EXPECT A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE WRAPPING THROUGH THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED AREAS.
AGAIN...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE SLIDING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
U.P. PLACED THE BETTER CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SNOW SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH THOUGH AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR MOVING IN WILL PRESS THE FAVORED DGZ
DOWN TO THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW TOO.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT WHICH IS
NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GFS
TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE THE EC PUSHES A SURFACE
RIDGE AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
GIVING ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 080531
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 080531
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AS A CYC NNW FLOW OF COLDER AIR OVERSRPEADS WRN UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG AND PERSISTS THRU TNGT...EXPECT SN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO
PREDOMINATE AT CMX AND IWD. AT SAW...SOME LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE
00Z GRB RAOB MAY BRING A FEW HRS OF VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR/DYNAMIC FORCING CAUSES SOME STEADY
SN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK. WITH A LESS FAVORABLE NNW WIND
AND THE EXIT OF THE DEEPEST MSTR...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT SAW THIS AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 080340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

DUE TO LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND LLVL SW FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING LO PRES OVER WCENTRAL UPR MI THAT WL IMPACT
CENTRAL UPR MI...REMOVED MENTION OF DRIZZLE FM THE FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOIST AND UPSLOPE E FLOW WL BRING LIFR/EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TO
CMX THIS EVNG. AS A MOIST...CYC NNW FLOW DVLPS OVER WRN UPR MI
DURING THE EVNG/EARLY MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SFC LO PRES...A
STEADY -SN WL DVLP FIRST AT IWD AND THEN AT CMX JUST AFTER MIDNGT...
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD UNDER LINGERING DEEP MSTR/A COLD NNW FLOW THAT
RESULTS IN PERSISTENT LES. AT SAW...EXPECT MVFR WX TO TRANSITION TO
IFR BY LATE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FOR A TIME
ON MON MRNG DURING A PERIOD OF STEADY -SN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN AS THE DEEPER MSTR/STEADY SN EXITS FOR A
TIME...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 080000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

BASED ON THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LINGERING DRY AIR ALF TO THE E OF
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SINCE SFC WBLB TEMPS ARE
STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH WBLB ZERO HGT FCST TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HI OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF AND NEAR
LK SUP...ADDED A MIX WITH SOME RAIN INTO THE FCST FOR THOSE PLACES AS
WELL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOIST AND UPSLOPE E FLOW WL BRING LIFR/EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TO
CMX THIS EVNG. AS A MOIST...CYC NNW FLOW DVLPS OVER WRN UPR MI
DURING THE EVNG/EARLY MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SFC LO PRES...A
STEADY -SN WL DVLP FIRST AT IWD AND THEN AT CMX JUST AFTER MIDNGT...
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD UNDER LINGERING DEEP MSTR/A COLD NNW FLOW THAT
RESULTS IN PERSISTENT LES. AT SAW...EXPECT MVFR WX TO TRANSITION TO
IFR BY LATE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FOR A TIME
ON MON MRNG DURING A PERIOD OF STEADY -SN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN AS THE DEEPER MSTR/STEADY SN EXITS FOR A
TIME...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF




000
FXUS63 KMQT 080000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

BASED ON THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LINGERING DRY AIR ALF TO THE E OF
SLOW MOVING CLOSED LO...ADDED SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF OF THE CWA. SINCE SFC WBLB TEMPS ARE
STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH WBLB ZERO HGT FCST TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HI OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY THE E HALF AND NEAR
LK SUP...ADDED A MIX WITH SOME RAIN INTO THE FCST FOR THOSE PLACES AS
WELL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOIST AND UPSLOPE E FLOW WL BRING LIFR/EVEN VLIFR CONDITIONS TO
CMX THIS EVNG. AS A MOIST...CYC NNW FLOW DVLPS OVER WRN UPR MI
DURING THE EVNG/EARLY MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SFC LO PRES...A
STEADY -SN WL DVLP FIRST AT IWD AND THEN AT CMX JUST AFTER MIDNGT...
RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD UNDER LINGERING DEEP MSTR/A COLD NNW FLOW THAT
RESULTS IN PERSISTENT LES. AT SAW...EXPECT MVFR WX TO TRANSITION TO
IFR BY LATE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR IN THE PRESENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE FOR A TIME
ON MON MRNG DURING A PERIOD OF STEADY -SN. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN AS THE DEEPER MSTR/STEADY SN EXITS FOR A
TIME...VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 072058
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SLIGHTLY E OF LAKE HURON BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF UPPER MI IN A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. CAA WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -18C
WEST AND -14C EAST MON NIGHT AND TO -22C/-24C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST...GREATEST IN THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED
LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE DGZ WILL BE
FIRMLY SITUATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OFF THE FCS BUFR SOUNDINGS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4-
5 KFT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. NAM BUFR CROSSHAIR
SNOW RATIO TABLES MON NIGHT INDICATE SLR OF UP TO 35/1 AT KIWD AND
25/1 AT MQT AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST MODELS QPF COULD
DEFINITELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER KIWD AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES FOR UP TO ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF LES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SQUASH THE
DGZ TOWARD LAKE SFC LIKELY RESULTING IN MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.
GIVEN THAT MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM SYSTEM AND
FAIRLY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COULD PILE UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INCLUDING LAKE SUPERIOR BUT WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST AND SFC HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM NW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL STILL SEE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT AT A
DIMINISHED RATE FOR THE NW WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WINDS BACK FROM NW TO
WNW.

THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO ONE MORE BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR THU NIGHT INTO SAT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES 850 MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WOULD END OF BEING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN
THIS SEASON IN UPPER MI. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRI AND SAT WILL
LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MOST PLACES. WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN LES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPICTED ON MODEL SNDGS
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 5KFT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NW WIND SNOWBELTS. POSSIBILITY OF
SMALLER SNOWFLAKE SIZE DUE TO COMPRESSED DGZ FROM COLDER AIRMASS MAY
RESULT IN MORE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI NIGHT. AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO MODERATE BY
LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC-8H HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY
FM WEST. SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD DIMINISH ANY
REMAINING NW FLOW LES TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM SCNTRL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO UPPER MI SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 072044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS TO THE
NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW SPINNING OVER NE MN AND FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR.

STILL HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH A LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO INITIALLY WILL RESULT A LESS
SNOW THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE N FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT FROM IWD UP THROUGH W ONTONAGON COUNTY...AS THE
SFC LOW NEARS CENTRAL UPPER MI. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE LAKESHORE. STILL EXPECTING 3 TO NEAR 7IN IN THE
TRADITIONAL LOCATIONS JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 2-4IN
WELL INLAND THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THE N-NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FALLING TEMPS MONDAY OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...INTO THE
TEENS FROM 18Z ON. COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON N-NNW WINDS AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -11C. THE LOW WILL STILL BE EXITING THE E
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ONLY CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED THERE...UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
INITIALLY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER N LOWER MI MONDAY...AND EXIT
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
MARINE WISE WILL BE INCREASING N WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W HALF
OUT OF THE NNW 25-30KTS...EXPANDING TO THE E HALF MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER N
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE E HALF TUESDAY-TUESDAY
EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE N PLAINS
TUESDAY SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONG AND COLD
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
START OF THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF





000
FXUS63 KMQT 071744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 071744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 071744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MOST OF THE SITES /AND ESPECIALLY IWD AT MVFR CONDITIONS/ ARE IN THE
BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW AND THE MORE STEADY SNOW
NEARING FROM NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL BE SLIDING IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS W-E AT ALL
SITES...DOWN TO TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS...WITH VIS FALLING TO LIFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MN AND W LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTS OVER SAW BY
06Z...AND THE PREDOMINATELY S WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NNW TONIGHT AT
CMX AND IWD. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR E UPPER MI BY
18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NNW AT SAW IN THE
MORNING...BRINGING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 071553
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO
RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 071553
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE ONSHORE FLOW AT ISQ AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 30S HAVE RESULTED
IN OBSERVATIONS OF VERY WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FCST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW. ALSO REDUCED THE SLR AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 071202
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 071202
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
702 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT IFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NE MN AND FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z...PUSHING MUCH OF
THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
WEST AS CONDITIONS DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




000
FXUS63 KMQT 071024
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
524 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST RESULTING NW FLOW FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. A
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WAS SLIDING SE INTO NRN MN.
LIGHT SNOW OVER UPPER MI WAS SUPPORTED BY WAA AND 285K-295
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM MN INTO WRN WI.

TODAY...EXPECT SNOW OVER MAINLY THE N AND E PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...THE PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF OR END AS A DRY SLOT AND WARM
SECTOR MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TOWARD THE MILD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPPER 30S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE WEST NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EVEN WITH THE MILD CONDITIONS...WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE AS MAINLY SNOW.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO ERN WI TONIGHT...A SFC
TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM W UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING TO THE CNTRL
U.P. BY 12Z/MON. INCREASING NNE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH CAA
DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
OVER THE WEST...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS STRONGEST...NEAR
IWD. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE
EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW INTENSITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. SO...AN
ADVY WAS ISSUED FOR GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...STARTING AT
00Z/MON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH ANY SNOWFALL OVER
THE CNTRL AND EAST LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND INCREASE
TO 30KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUEINTO WED. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON NIGHT
INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH
LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN LAKES.
THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRI FOLLOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 070957
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONSISTS OF SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MONDAY...THE PATTERN MONDAY WILL CONSIST OF AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL BE PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI
TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP FROM -14C/-15C OVER THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND TO -17C/-18C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVER THE EAST HALF...850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -6C/-7C IN
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND -10C/-11C MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BE
DEVELOPING/ONGOING OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ON NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BECOMING NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL WILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 5-7KFT THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE FAR WEST WITH MUCH LOWER
INVERSION HEIGHTS EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
U.P. THROUGH THE DAY. A GOOD DEAL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE CLOUD LAYER
WOULD BE IN THE DGZ AS WELL...HELPING TO BOOST SNOW RATIOS OVER THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT EXPECT TOTALS DURING THE DAY TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD.
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST NEAR LAKE
HURON BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF THE U.P. IN NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL
ON CAA INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM AROUND
-14C/-15C MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND -20C/-22C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE FORECAST...HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE BEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL/HIGHEST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT AS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 5-
7KFT. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
LIKELY COME DOWN QUITE A BIT EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SNOWING. THE MUCH COLDER AIR SLIDING IN ALOFT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
CLOUD LAYER COLDER THAN THE IDEAL DGZ LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVING MUCH SMALLER SNOWFLAKES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN DUG IN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE U.P. IN THE CONTINUED
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE U.P. WILL STILL SEE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. THE CHILLY AIR AT 850MB WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE KEEPING SLR VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WOULD BE IF THEY
WERE IN THE PREFERRED DGZ. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MUCH
DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST. WILL STILL SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ONGOING...ON A MUCH DIMINISHED RATE...FOR MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE INFLECTION POINT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/EC ARE HINTING
AT A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDING THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY GIVE AN UPTICK IN LES FOR THE CWA WITH
ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PROVIDED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL EVEN FURTHER DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING -30C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 070546
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 070546
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 070546
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA/NRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES INTO SUN MORNING.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z
SUNDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 070052
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW
TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AGAIN AFTER
18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 070052
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW
TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AGAIN AFTER
18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 070052
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM S CENTRAL CANADA
WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW
TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AGAIN AFTER
18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WEST AS CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 062044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY VFR VIS WILL BE THE RULE AT IWD AND
SAW...BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT N OF THE SITE. STILL ANTICIPATE
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. NEARING
LOW PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S
MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 062044
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA A LITTLE EARLY. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIMITED WIND CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH P59
CONTINUED TO SHOW N WINDS...THEY HAVE GONE CALM AT 19 AND 20Z. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND WEBCAM IMAGES SHOWING
LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW.

MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH IS BEING HELPED BY A 500MB WAVE SINKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND E MT. BACK TO UPPER MI...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE S HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS S CENTRAL
CANADA...AND N PLAINS...AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SUSTAINED W WINDS AROUND
25-30KTS. AS THE SFC LOW SINKS ACROSS S MANITOBA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND TO W LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD WELL TO OUR S. STILL
EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 15-20KTS OVER THE W HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4C W AND -11C E TO A CWA AVERAGED -3C BY DAYBREAK
ON 850MB WIND SW 35-45KTS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL-E UPPER MI BY EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
THE DRY SLOT SWEEPS IN. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C/ AND W FLOW TO BRING IN THE LIKELY SNOW TO THE FAR W BY
THE END OF THE DAY. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW NEAR IWD AROUND 06Z BEFORE THE MOISTENING
OF THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IT IN THE FCST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY VFR VIS WILL BE THE RULE AT IWD AND
SAW...BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT N OF THE SITE. STILL ANTICIPATE
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. NEARING
LOW PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S
MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 062043
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN WX STORY IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOCUS ON THE
IMPACT OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA/
DEEPENING SFC LO PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A HI
AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE W. AS H85 TEMPS TUMBLE AOB -20C BY TUE IN THE
STRONG NNW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG TOWARD THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT SOME PERSISTENT MDT LES AND BLSN TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE FAVORED SN BELTS ON MON INTO AT LEAST TUE AND PERHAPS WED. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUN WL FALL BLO NORMAL THIS COMING WEEK WITH
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.

SUN NGT/MON...AS A MID LVL CLOSED LO DROPS SSEWD FM NEAR WRN LK SUP
AT 00Z MON TO OVER LOWER MI BY MON AFTN...LLVL WINDS WL SHIFT FM THE
SW TO THE NNW W-E BY DAYBREAK ON MON EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA...WHERE THIS WSHFT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z MON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SN UNDER INCRSGLY DEEP MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FALLING HGTS AHEAD OF THE WSHFT...HEAVIER SN SHOWERS WL DVLP
MAINLY IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS NEAR LK SUP FOLLOWING THE WSHFT AS
THE CYC NNW FLOW DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND DROPS H85 TEMPS
TO ARND -15C OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
AND LK ENHANCEMENT WL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME ADVYS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W WHERE THE WSHFT/COLDER AIR WL ARRIVE EARLIER.
WL MAINTAIN HIER CATEGORICAL POPS AND SOME BLSN IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
NEAR LK SUP AS H925 WINDS INCRS UP TO 30 KTS.

MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...A PERSISTENT CYC NNW FLOW IS PROGGED TO DRAW
H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -25C INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE NGT. WHILE THE
MODELS ALL SHOW DEEP MSTR/QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL FAVOR SOME MDT TO
PERHAPS HEAVY LES LINGERING THRU AT LEAST 12Z TUE...THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPR TROF AXIS AND THUS THE DEEPER
MSTR/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/CONTINUED LK ENHANCEMENT WL EXIT W-
E. CONSIDERING THE HI AMPLITUDE PATTERN THAT WL DOMINATE...SUSPECT
THE SLOWER GUIDANCE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODEL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT A QUICKER EXIT OF THE DEEP MSTR...SO WL
BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SN SHOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE W ON TUE/TUE NGT WHILE HOLDING ON TO THE HIER CATEGORICAL POPS
GIVEN LLVL FACTORS THAT WL SUPPORT WDSPRD ALBEIT LIGHTER LES.

WED INTO THU...WHILE A PERSISTENT CYC N SLOWLY WEAKENING/BACKING TO
NW FLOW AS SFC HI PRES BECOMES ORIENTED FM NEAR LK WINNIPEG INTO WRN
WI WL BRING PURE LES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE SHIFTING FAVORED SN
BELTS WITH H85 TEMPS STILL BLO -20C...MID LVL DRYING AND LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC THAT IS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THE SN SHOWERS. BUT STILL MAINTAINED HIER POPS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS FCST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR THE SHALLOWER LES.
IF THERE IS SOME CLRG NEAR THE WI BORDER/SCENTRAL ON WED NGT...LO
TEMPS THERE COULD FALL WELL BLO ZERO.

FRI/SAT...THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN
THE NW FLOW BTWN THE DEEP ERN TROF/WRN RDG WL PASS NEAR THE UPR
GREAT LKS ON FRI. WHILE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW WL LIMIT THE CHC
FOR ANY LARGER SCALE PCPN...INFLUX OF COLDER AIR/H85 TEMPS FCST TO
AS LO AS -25 TO -30C WL BRING MORE LES AND WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
BUMPED UP POPS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS FCST OVER THE EXPECTED FAVORED
SN BELTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY VFR VIS WILL BE THE RULE AT IWD AND
SAW...BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT N OF THE SITE. STILL ANTICIPATE
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. NEARING
LOW PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S
MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

EXPECT SSE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT TO VEER TO THE SW ON
SUN AS A LO PRES APPROACHES THE UPPER LAKES. AFTER THIS LO SLIDES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS BY MON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS LO
AND HI PRES BUILDING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE LO SHIFTS TO THE E...THE MARGINAL N GALES MAY PERSIST INTO
WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. THE WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL DIMINISH LATER ON WED/THU AS THE HI PRES EDGES CLOSER TO
THE WESTERN LAKES. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ON FRI FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY VFR VIS WILL BE THE RULE AT IWD AND
SAW...BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT N OF THE SITE. STILL ANTICIPATE
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. NEARING
LOW PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S
MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 061810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY VFR VIS WILL BE THE RULE AT IWD AND
SAW...BECOMING MVFR THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT N OF THE SITE. STILL ANTICIPATE
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY. NEARING
LOW PRESSURE FROM S CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH OVER FAR NW MN/FAR S
MANITOBA BY 06Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING SNOW TO SPREAD W-E ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER NE MN/W LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 18Z SUNDAY..PUSHING MUCH OF THE INITIAL AREA OF SNOW NE. STEADIER
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING IN AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061149
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
649 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE CMX TAF SITE AS
SNOWDEVELOPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOWIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

IWD SHOULD GENERALLY SEE A MVFR CLOUD DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT SAW...MVFR
TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS SLIDE IN WITH LIGHT SNOW PUSHING IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061149
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
649 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE CMX TAF SITE AS
SNOWDEVELOPS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOWIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

IWD SHOULD GENERALLY SEE A MVFR CLOUD DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT SAW...MVFR
TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS SLIDE IN WITH LIGHT SNOW PUSHING IN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061014
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 061014
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

IR SATELITTE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SLIDING TOWARD THE THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING WV
IMAGERY. RADAR IS SHOWING THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING
OFF OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WITH A FEW RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR.

TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE RIDGE...SLIDING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FLOW AROUND THESE PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH FLOW AROUND
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PUT THE CWA SORT OF IN THE SADDLE POINT OR COL...WHICH TENDS TO BE
FRONTOGENETIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY
CONVERGENT AREA ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THAT IS
WHERE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR INCREASED SNOW CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH
THE DAY. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE U.P.
AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONE OF THOSE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THIS MORNING
HELPING TO INCREASE SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENT ZONE WILL BE...ALONG WITH WEST WINDS. THE
COMBINATION OF FORCING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND -12C TO -13C WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EQ HEIGHTS
ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE POINTING AT A FAIRLY DOMINANT
BAND BETWEEN CALUMET AND DELAWARE THAT WOULD HELP PRODUCE SNOW
TOTALS IN ADVISORY RANGE AROUND 4 INCHES OR MORE IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...AFTER THE BRIEF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AROUND 00Z/07 TO
NORTH CENTRAL MN BY 09Z/07. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...PLACING MORE OF THE FOCUS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z/07 AND
06Z/07 EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING ANY MODERATE SNOW THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING TO
THE -6 TO -8 RANGE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE CWA WILL BE DRY AS
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ON WAA INTO THE AREA...HELPING TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OUT OF THIS DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS OVER THE
KEWEENAW MAY END UP SEEING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE KEPT A LITTLE WARMER WITH WAA AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CNTRL CANADA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
443 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
443 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
443 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A
RELATIVELY MILD WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LES FOR N TO NW FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE NAM/SREF/GFS/GEM KEEP THE HIGHER QPF AND PCPN
CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO UPPER MI. THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AS IT BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO UPPER MI SUN MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...LAKE ENHANCED TO LES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME
NRLY FROM W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -10C WEST BY 12Z/MON AND THEN TO AROUND -10C EAST AND
-16C WEST BY 00Z/TUE. THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS MOV INTO THE WEST AFT
06Z/MON AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BTWN 12Z-18Z/MON. GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C TUE AND
TO AROUND -23C WED. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK
ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES AND MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY SHSN
FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLR VALUES WILL
ALSO BE HIGH...AROUND 25/1...WITH THE DGZ REMAINING IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES BY THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN
COLDER AIRMASS DROPPING INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -25C
TO -30C RANGE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LES FOR NNW TO NW FLOW
FAVORED LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060439
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 060439
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 060439
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW SAT MORNING THRU SAT EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT MVFR DECK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT SAW...WILL
SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS
SHOULD BE AROUND SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW SET UP SAT EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 052321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
621 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON. AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 052321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
621 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON. AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 052321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
621 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON. AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA




000
FXUS63 KMQT 052157
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AT CMX...MVFR TO LOW VFR BKN CIGS AND FLURRIES INTO MID AFTN. LULL IN
MVFR CIGS OCCURS LATE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MID CLOUDS...THEN
MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN LATER EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT
INTO SAT.

AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN THEN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 052115
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -12C...LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME LES MAINLY INTO THE KEWEENAW AND
EAST OF MUNISING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A
HALF INCH.

SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ERN ND AND SFC LOW INTO SRN
MANITOBA WILL SUPPORT SRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT THROUGH  LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI TOWARD IL/IN AND WINDS BECOME NRLY. CAA WILL DROP
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AMOUNT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING
IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE LES.
IN ADDITION SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -
20C...SUPPORTING HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS
WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA WITH BACKING WINDS AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AT CMX...MVFR TO LOW VFR BKN CIGS AND FLURRIES INTO MID AFTN. LULL IN
MVFR CIGS OCCURS LATE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MID CLOUDS...THEN
MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN LATER EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT
INTO SAT.

AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN THEN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE OVER FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS IS LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP...MAINLY
ALONG THE CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS AND OVER NCENTRAL AND NWRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS VERY LIGHT. IN FACT...GETTING
STEADY LIGHT SNOW AT THE WFO WITH STARS CLEARLY VISIBLE FROM THE
GROUND. DRY AIR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT FROM
FORMING OVER THE KEWEENAW/W MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LIGHT SNOW (VIS
5SM) IS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KCMX. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION OF LES THIS MORNING AS A SFC RIDGES MOVES THROUGH.
ALSO SEEING VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING.
ONLY HAVE UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH
TODAY.

SHOULD BE A PRETTY CLOSE REPEAT TO YESTERDAY WHERE THAT RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH TIMING OF BOTH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING. DECREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY ENDED UP
BEING A LOT SUNNIER THAN MODELS INDICATED. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE MOISTURE AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATER ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SO DID NOT GO AS CLEAR AS YESTERDAY. HAVE GREATER
POPS TONIGHT THAN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A THREE REASONS. GREATER
MOISTURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE FOLLOWING RIDGE IS NOT AS
STRONG/DRY AS THE ONE THIS MORNING...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET MOVES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE THE BEST POPS OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND E. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND AROUND
AN INCH E. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -12C...LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME LES MAINLY INTO THE KEWEENAW AND
EAST OF MUNISING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A
HALF INCH.

SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ERN ND AND SFC LOW INTO SRN
MANITOBA WILL SUPPORT SRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT THROUGH  LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI TOWARD IL/IN AND WINDS BECOME NRLY. CAA WILL DROP
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AMOUNT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING
IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE LES.
IN ADDITION SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -
20C...SUPPORTING HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS
WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA WITH BACKING WINDS AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AT CMX...MVFR TO LOW VFR BKN CIGS AND FLURRIES INTO MID AFTN. LULL IN
MVFR CIGS OCCURS LATE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MID CLOUDS...THEN
MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN LATER EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT
INTO SAT.

AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN THEN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS TODAY
THEN INCREASE TO W-SW TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. NW WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED ON SAT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WINDS BECOME SE TO 30 KTS ON SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FM SCNTRL
CANADA. GALES MAY OCCUR OVER THE EAST HALF SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
STRONGER N WINDS COULD THEN REACH GALE FORCE ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY
NEXT MON INTO TUE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS




000
FXUS63 KMQT 051723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE OVER FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS IS LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP...MAINLY
ALONG THE CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS AND OVER NCENTRAL AND NWRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS VERY LIGHT. IN FACT...GETTING
STEADY LIGHT SNOW AT THE WFO WITH STARS CLEARLY VISIBLE FROM THE
GROUND. DRY AIR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT FROM
FORMING OVER THE KEWEENAW/W MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LIGHT SNOW (VIS
5SM) IS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KCMX. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION OF LES THIS MORNING AS A SFC RIDGES MOVES THROUGH.
ALSO SEEING VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING.
ONLY HAVE UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH
TODAY.

SHOULD BE A PRETTY CLOSE REPEAT TO YESTERDAY WHERE THAT RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH TIMING OF BOTH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING. DECREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY ENDED UP
BEING A LOT SUNNIER THAN MODELS INDICATED. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE MOISTURE AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATER ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SO DID NOT GO AS CLEAR AS YESTERDAY. HAVE GREATER
POPS TONIGHT THAN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A THREE REASONS. GREATER
MOISTURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE FOLLOWING RIDGE IS NOT AS
STRONG/DRY AS THE ONE THIS MORNING...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET MOVES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE THE BEST POPS OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND E. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND AROUND
AN INCH E. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -12C...LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME LES MAINLY INTO THE KEWEENAW AND
EAST OF MUNISING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A
HALF INCH.

SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ERN ND AND SFC LOW INTO SRN
MANITOBA WILL SUPPORT SRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT THROUGH  LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI TOWARD IL/IN AND WINDS BECOME NRLY. CAA WILL DROP
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AMOUNT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING
IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE LES.
IN ADDITION SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -
20C...SUPPORTING HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS
WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA WITH BACKING WINDS AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AT CMX...MVFR TO LOW VFR BKN CIGS AND FLURRIES INTO MID AFTN. LULL IN
MVFR CIGS OCCURS LATE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MID CLOUDS...THEN
MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN LATER EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT
INTO SAT.

AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN THEN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS TODAY
THEN INCREASE TO W-SW TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. NW WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED ON SAT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WINDS BECOME SE TO 30 KTS ON SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FM SCNTRL
CANADA. GALES MAY OCCUR OVER THE EAST HALF SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
STRONGER N WINDS COULD THEN REACH GALE FORCE ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY
NEXT MON INTO TUE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 051723
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE OVER FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS IS LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP...MAINLY
ALONG THE CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS AND OVER NCENTRAL AND NWRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS VERY LIGHT. IN FACT...GETTING
STEADY LIGHT SNOW AT THE WFO WITH STARS CLEARLY VISIBLE FROM THE
GROUND. DRY AIR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT FROM
FORMING OVER THE KEWEENAW/W MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LIGHT SNOW (VIS
5SM) IS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KCMX. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION OF LES THIS MORNING AS A SFC RIDGES MOVES THROUGH.
ALSO SEEING VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING.
ONLY HAVE UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH
TODAY.

SHOULD BE A PRETTY CLOSE REPEAT TO YESTERDAY WHERE THAT RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH TIMING OF BOTH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING. DECREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY ENDED UP
BEING A LOT SUNNIER THAN MODELS INDICATED. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE MOISTURE AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATER ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SO DID NOT GO AS CLEAR AS YESTERDAY. HAVE GREATER
POPS TONIGHT THAN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A THREE REASONS. GREATER
MOISTURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE FOLLOWING RIDGE IS NOT AS
STRONG/DRY AS THE ONE THIS MORNING...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET MOVES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE THE BEST POPS OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND E. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND AROUND
AN INCH E. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -12C...LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME LES MAINLY INTO THE KEWEENAW AND
EAST OF MUNISING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A
HALF INCH.

SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ERN ND AND SFC LOW INTO SRN
MANITOBA WILL SUPPORT SRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT THROUGH  LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI TOWARD IL/IN AND WINDS BECOME NRLY. CAA WILL DROP
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AMOUNT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING
IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE LES.
IN ADDITION SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -
20C...SUPPORTING HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS
WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA WITH BACKING WINDS AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AT CMX...MVFR TO LOW VFR BKN CIGS AND FLURRIES INTO MID AFTN. LULL IN
MVFR CIGS OCCURS LATE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MID CLOUDS...THEN
MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN LATER EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

AT IWD...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT
INTO SAT.

AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTN THEN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS TODAY
THEN INCREASE TO W-SW TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. NW WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED ON SAT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WINDS BECOME SE TO 30 KTS ON SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FM SCNTRL
CANADA. GALES MAY OCCUR OVER THE EAST HALF SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
STRONGER N WINDS COULD THEN REACH GALE FORCE ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY
NEXT MON INTO TUE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS





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