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000
FXUS63 KMQT 311937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

NOT MUCH OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW
SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY...SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION
ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. PREDOMINANT SHORTWAVE RIGHT NOW IS JUST
SW OF THE CWA AND HAS SPARKED SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. NOW THAT MUCH OF THE ERN CWA IS BEING DOMINATED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZES...MOST DIURNAL SHOWERS HAVE
FADED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS JUST N OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A CU FIELD IS OCCURRING WITH
THAT...AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THAT SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN
CWA TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AS SUCH...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE SOME FOG
FORM INLAND TONIGHT AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...A LITTLE MORE POTENT THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY
SW OF THE CWA...WILL MOVE AGAIN ACROSS OR SLIGHTLY SW OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY DUE TO A PLUME OF HIGHER
MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN. BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. MLCAPE
VALUES LOOK TO BE 400-800J/KG OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREAS
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE 20-25KTS. WITH THIS...COULD SEE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE TO THE POINT OF SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL AT WORST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEK LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. THIS WILL
KEEP THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH EITHER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEK...THEY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES THAT PROGRESS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. FRIDAY
EVENING ANY REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DWINDLE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...WITH AROUND 1K-2K J/KG OF
MUCAPE...0-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS...AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
AVAILABLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND THE
NIGHTTIME INVERSION DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE LESS THAN 2 DEGREES OVER MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPPER MI. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER LAND TO DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE AND WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO
AND DRIFTS STEADILY SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
BEFORE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AROUND THE SAME TIME...AND THIS LOW STRUGGLES
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES INTO IOWA/MN SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.

MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MI FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE WEAK 700-850MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MUCAPES MAXING OUT AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OUT WEST REACHING UP TO AROUND 20KTS OUT WEST AS A SMALL
300MB JET NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE GFS AS USUAL IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE FRONT SITUATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI 12Z
SUNDAY...AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS THINGS
DOWN...WITH THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z SUNDAY AND
EASTERN UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY EVENING. IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THINK THE AMALGAMATION OF DECENT
MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
REINFORCEMENT FOR SHOWERS/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK WITH THE
GOING CHANCE POPS/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
WEST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS LOCATED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP IF THE ECMWF IS ON
THE RIGHT TRACK.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER MI IS AT THE MERCY OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SO HAVE KEPT
CONSENSUS CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...MAINLY ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER UPPER MI ON TUESDAY...SO MOST
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
MN/WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT THINKING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS BRINGS THE
SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR SAW ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WHICH
IS NEAR THE AIRFIELD...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP
VCSH IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311937
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

NOT MUCH OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW
SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY...SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION
ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. PREDOMINANT SHORTWAVE RIGHT NOW IS JUST
SW OF THE CWA AND HAS SPARKED SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. NOW THAT MUCH OF THE ERN CWA IS BEING DOMINATED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZES...MOST DIURNAL SHOWERS HAVE
FADED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS JUST N OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A CU FIELD IS OCCURRING WITH
THAT...AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THAT SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN
CWA TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AS SUCH...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE SOME FOG
FORM INLAND TONIGHT AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...A LITTLE MORE POTENT THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY
SW OF THE CWA...WILL MOVE AGAIN ACROSS OR SLIGHTLY SW OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY DUE TO A PLUME OF HIGHER
MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN. BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. MLCAPE
VALUES LOOK TO BE 400-800J/KG OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREAS
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE 20-25KTS. WITH THIS...COULD SEE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE TO THE POINT OF SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL AT WORST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEK LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY SATURDAY
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. THIS WILL
KEEP THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH EITHER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEK...THEY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES THAT PROGRESS THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. FRIDAY
EVENING ANY REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DWINDLE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST...WITH AROUND 1K-2K J/KG OF
MUCAPE...0-6KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS...AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
AVAILABLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A BRIEF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE/WEAK RIDGE WILL CROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND THE
NIGHTTIME INVERSION DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE LESS THAN 2 DEGREES OVER MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPPER MI. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER LAND TO DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE AND WARMER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO
AND DRIFTS STEADILY SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
BEFORE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AROUND THE SAME TIME...AND THIS LOW STRUGGLES
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES INTO IOWA/MN SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.

MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MI FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THEY DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE WEAK 700-850MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MUCAPES MAXING OUT AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OUT WEST REACHING UP TO AROUND 20KTS OUT WEST AS A SMALL
300MB JET NOSES INTO THE CWA. THE GFS AS USUAL IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE FRONT SITUATED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI 12Z
SUNDAY...AND EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SLOWS THINGS
DOWN...WITH THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z SUNDAY AND
EASTERN UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY EVENING. IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THINK THE AMALGAMATION OF DECENT
MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
REINFORCEMENT FOR SHOWERS/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL STICK WITH THE
GOING CHANCE POPS/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES
WEST WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS LOCATED. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP IF THE ECMWF IS ON
THE RIGHT TRACK.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER MI IS AT THE MERCY OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SO HAVE KEPT
CONSENSUS CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...MAINLY ON MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER UPPER MI ON TUESDAY...SO MOST
OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
MN/WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT THINKING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WI BORDER AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS BRINGS THE
SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL LAKE MI BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR SAW ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WHICH
IS NEAR THE AIRFIELD...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP
VCSH IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 311926
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

NOT MUCH OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW
SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY...SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION
ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. PREDOMINANT SHORTWAVE RIGHT NOW IS JUST
SW OF THE CWA AND HAS SPARKED SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. NOW THAT MUCH OF THE ERN CWA IS BEING DOMINATED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZES...MOST DIURNAL SHOWERS HAVE
FADED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS JUST N OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A CU FIELD IS OCCURRING WITH
THAT...AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THAT SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN
CWA TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AS SUCH...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE SOME FOG
FORM INLAND TONIGHT AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...A LITTLE MORE POTENT THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY
SW OF THE CWA...WILL MOVE AGAIN ACROSS OR SLIGHTLY SW OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY DUE TO A PLUME OF HIGHER
MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN. BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. MLCAPE
VALUES LOOK TO BE 400-800J/KG OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREAS
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE 20-25KTS. WITH THIS...COULD SEE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE TO THE POINT OF SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL AT WORST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR SAW ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WHICH
IS NEAR THE AIRFIELD...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP
VCSH IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311926
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

NOT MUCH OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW
SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY...SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION
ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. PREDOMINANT SHORTWAVE RIGHT NOW IS JUST
SW OF THE CWA AND HAS SPARKED SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. NOW THAT MUCH OF THE ERN CWA IS BEING DOMINATED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZES...MOST DIURNAL SHOWERS HAVE
FADED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS JUST N OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A CU FIELD IS OCCURRING WITH
THAT...AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THAT SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN
CWA TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AS SUCH...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE SOME FOG
FORM INLAND TONIGHT AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...A LITTLE MORE POTENT THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY
SW OF THE CWA...WILL MOVE AGAIN ACROSS OR SLIGHTLY SW OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY DUE TO A PLUME OF HIGHER
MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN. BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. MLCAPE
VALUES LOOK TO BE 400-800J/KG OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREAS
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE 20-25KTS. WITH THIS...COULD SEE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE TO THE POINT OF SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL AT WORST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR SAW ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WHICH
IS NEAR THE AIRFIELD...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP
VCSH IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 311736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO AND OVER HUDSON BAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
GRAND MARAIS TO ENGADINE THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR...WHICH HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF THAT AREA. THIS FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
LATEST WEBCAMS HAVEN/T INDICATED ANYTHING AS THICK/WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SPS FOR NOW. WITH CLOUD
THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (AROUND 500FT ON THE
GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA)...EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AND KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO DIMINISH SOME THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH)...HELPING SHIFT THE MID CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THUS...THINK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH 850-700MB MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO IRON RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
AREA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS FARTHER TO
THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...DO BELIEVE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THAT AREA OF
CONVERGENCE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR IDEA TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
AND HAVE THE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN...TO
KSAW...TO NEWBERRY. MUCAPE VARIES IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 150-1000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MLCAPE VALUES ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER RESPRESENTATION AND LARGELY BETWEEN 150-450
J/KG OVER DELTA/MENOMINEE COUNTIES. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY (LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS).

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TONIGHT...IT WILL TRY TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR) BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE
U.P. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXIST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR SAW ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WHICH
IS NEAR THE AIRFIELD...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP
VCSH IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 311736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO AND OVER HUDSON BAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
GRAND MARAIS TO ENGADINE THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR...WHICH HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF THAT AREA. THIS FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
LATEST WEBCAMS HAVEN/T INDICATED ANYTHING AS THICK/WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SPS FOR NOW. WITH CLOUD
THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (AROUND 500FT ON THE
GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA)...EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AND KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO DIMINISH SOME THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH)...HELPING SHIFT THE MID CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THUS...THINK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH 850-700MB MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO IRON RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
AREA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS FARTHER TO
THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...DO BELIEVE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THAT AREA OF
CONVERGENCE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR IDEA TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
AND HAVE THE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN...TO
KSAW...TO NEWBERRY. MUCAPE VARIES IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 150-1000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MLCAPE VALUES ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER RESPRESENTATION AND LARGELY BETWEEN 150-450
J/KG OVER DELTA/MENOMINEE COUNTIES. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY (LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS).

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TONIGHT...IT WILL TRY TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR) BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE
U.P. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXIST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR SAW ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WHICH
IS NEAR THE AIRFIELD...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP
VCSH IN THE TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 311150
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO AND OVER HUDSON BAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
GRAND MARAIS TO ENGADINE THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR...WHICH HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF THAT AREA. THIS FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
LATEST WEBCAMS HAVEN/T INDICATED ANYTHING AS THICK/WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SPS FOR NOW. WITH CLOUD
THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (AROUND 500FT ON THE
GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA)...EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AND KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO DIMINISH SOME THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH)...HELPING SHIFT THE MID CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THUS...THINK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH 850-700MB MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO IRON RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
AREA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS FARTHER TO
THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...DO BELIEVE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THAT AREA OF
CONVERGENCE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR IDEA TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
AND HAVE THE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN...TO
KSAW...TO NEWBERRY. MUCAPE VARIES IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 150-1000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MLCAPE VALUES ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER RESPRESENTATION AND LARGELY BETWEEN 150-450
J/KG OVER DELTA/MENOMINEE COUNTIES. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY (LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS).

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TONIGHT...IT WILL TRY TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR) BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE
U.P. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXIST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE PERIOD.
INITIALLY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IT INTO
KCMX. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF IT TRYING TO BREAK UP ALREADY...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ITEM OF IMPORTANCE IS THE EXPECTATION OF
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT KSAW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE IN MARQUETTE COUNTY...BUT
AT THIS TIME EXPECT THEM TO STAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 311150
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO AND OVER HUDSON BAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
GRAND MARAIS TO ENGADINE THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR...WHICH HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF THAT AREA. THIS FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
LATEST WEBCAMS HAVEN/T INDICATED ANYTHING AS THICK/WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SPS FOR NOW. WITH CLOUD
THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (AROUND 500FT ON THE
GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA)...EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AND KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO DIMINISH SOME THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH)...HELPING SHIFT THE MID CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THUS...THINK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH 850-700MB MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO IRON RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
AREA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS FARTHER TO
THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...DO BELIEVE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THAT AREA OF
CONVERGENCE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR IDEA TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
AND HAVE THE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN...TO
KSAW...TO NEWBERRY. MUCAPE VARIES IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 150-1000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MLCAPE VALUES ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER RESPRESENTATION AND LARGELY BETWEEN 150-450
J/KG OVER DELTA/MENOMINEE COUNTIES. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY (LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS).

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TONIGHT...IT WILL TRY TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR) BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE
U.P. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXIST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE PERIOD.
INITIALLY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED IT INTO
KCMX. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF IT TRYING TO BREAK UP ALREADY...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ITEM OF IMPORTANCE IS THE EXPECTATION OF
DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT KSAW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE IN MARQUETTE COUNTY...BUT
AT THIS TIME EXPECT THEM TO STAY MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 310840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO AND OVER HUDSON BAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
GRAND MARAIS TO ENGADINE THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR...WHICH HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF THAT AREA. THIS FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
LATEST WEBCAMS HAVEN/T INDICATED ANYTHING AS THICK/WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SPS FOR NOW. WITH CLOUD
THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (AROUND 500FT ON THE
GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA)...EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AND KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO DIMINISH SOME THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH)...HELPING SHIFT THE MID CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THUS...THINK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH 850-700MB MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO IRON RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
AREA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS FARTHER TO
THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...DO BELIEVE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THAT AREA OF
CONVERGENCE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR IDEA TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
AND HAVE THE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN...TO
KSAW...TO NEWBERRY. MUCAPE VARIES IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 150-1000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MLCAPE VALUES ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER RESPRESENTATION AND LARGELY BETWEEN 150-450
J/KG OVER DELTA/MENOMINEE COUNTIES. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY (LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS).

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TONIGHT...IT WILL TRY TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR) BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE
U.P. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXIST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE FM YESTERDAYS SHRA COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT MAINLY KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN
KSAW TAFS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH KIWD ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM AT
TIMES...HAVE PUT THEM AT VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS/SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 310840
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR JAMES BAY AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NORTH THROUGH ONTARIO AND OVER HUDSON BAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
GRAND MARAIS TO ENGADINE THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. FOR
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR...WHICH HAS LED TO PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF THAT AREA. THIS FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN LOW LYING AREAS...BUT
LATEST WEBCAMS HAVEN/T INDICATED ANYTHING AS THICK/WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SPS FOR NOW. WITH CLOUD
THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (AROUND 500FT ON THE
GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS DATA)...EXPECT THIS FOG TO BURN OFF WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE.

THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY AND KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO DIMINISH SOME THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHWEST HAS A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY (ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH)...HELPING SHIFT THE MID CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THUS...THINK DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH 850-700MB MOISTURE
FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO IRON RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
AREA BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AREAS FARTHER TO
THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...DO BELIEVE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THAT AREA OF
CONVERGENCE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR IDEA TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
AND HAVE THE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN...TO
KSAW...TO NEWBERRY. MUCAPE VARIES IN THE MODELS BETWEEN 150-1000
J/KG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MLCAPE VALUES ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER RESPRESENTATION AND LARGELY BETWEEN 150-450
J/KG OVER DELTA/MENOMINEE COUNTIES. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY (LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS).

WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
TONIGHT...IT WILL TRY TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA (MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR) BUT SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE
U.P. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXIST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE FM YESTERDAYS SHRA COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT MAINLY KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN
KSAW TAFS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH KIWD ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM AT
TIMES...HAVE PUT THEM AT VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS/SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 310830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE FM YESTERDAYS SHRA COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT MAINLY KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN
KSAW TAFS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH KIWD ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM AT
TIMES...HAVE PUT THEM AT VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS/SRF
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 310830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY OF JAMES BAY
DEAMPLIFIES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHER THAN ON SATURDAY THOUGH...TROUGHING
PERSISTS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COUPLE
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FIRST IS ON FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE SECOND
COMING IN LATER SUNDAY.

THE CHANCES ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY INLAND OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPR
MICHIGAN. NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
POCKET OF H7-H5 MOISTURE CROSSES IN THE AFTN OVER NORTHERN WI AND
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WHILE GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH
THIS FORCING. TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S RESULTS IN MLCAPES INTO
INTERIOR WEST CWA PUSHING TOWARD 500J/KG...BUT GREATER INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY AFTN DWPTS ONLY INTO THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S. NAM
DWPNTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SEEM WAY OVERDONE AND RESULT IN MLCAPES
WELL OVR 1000 J/KG. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER
THE CNTRL CWA WHERE BEST INSTABILITY MATCHES UP WITH LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE ESE AT 20-25 MPH
BASED ON H7 WINDS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND WEAKISH SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS MAIN HAZARD FM ANY STORMS.
YET...SINCE WBZERO HEIGHTS ARE ONLY IN THE 8-9KFT AGL RANGE ANY ISOLD
STRONGER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL. LACK OF
STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO END
EARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
PWATS FALL TOWARD 50 PCT OF NORMAL...INDICATING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MINS SHOULD FALL INTO LOW TO
MID 40S. SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE INLAND AREAS.
THIKN THE NAM IS UP TO ITS TRICKS AGAIN ON SATURDAY...BY SHOWING TOO
MOIST OF LOW-LEVELS RESULTING IN TOO HIGH OF MLCAPES. TOOK OUT ANY
MENTION OF SHRA ON SATURDAY EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
INLAND AREAS AROUND 80 BASED ON MIXING TO H85 AND ONLY SCT CU.

ATTN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS ON STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS
YET AGAIN. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS
UPPER LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IT SEEMS THAT MODELS
ARE MORE LOCKED IN ON MOST SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME.
DRYING TREND THEN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO BE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY AS
DWPNTS SURGE UP TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WI AND PERHAPS WEST CWA
CLOSER TO WI BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 30 KTS ALONG WITH THE
FORECAST INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT RISK OF STRONGER STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE HELPED ALONG BY LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL. AGREE WITH DAYSHIFT FM WEDNESDAY... THAT COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. BASED ON LACK OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE
THOUGH...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK JUST QUITE YET.

FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN
TO BLO NORMAL VALUES YET AGAIN. MOST NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH GRADIENT NORTH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE FM YESTERDAYS SHRA COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT MAINLY KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN
KSAW TAFS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH KIWD ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM AT
TIMES...HAVE PUT THEM AT VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS/SRF
MARINE...KF









000
FXUS63 KMQT 310535
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
STAGNANT WEATHER. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MID TO HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
WEAK WAVE SKIRTING MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER CHANCES OVER LAND...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

A STRONGER EMBEDDED THROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
COMBINED WITH MORE DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OVER 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF UNDER 20 KNOTS...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MID 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON LAKE BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST MAY
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO UPPER MI LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THIS
TIME AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE DECAYING FRONT HAS LEFT.
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THUS DIFFERENT...WITH THE ECMWF
DISPLAYING QPF ACROSS UPPER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE GEM
ALL DAY MONDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING...THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTRIGUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MLCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
QUITE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL NOT GET ANY
MORE DETAILED ATTM. HOWEVER...THOUGHT IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE DECAYING
SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE IMPACT OF THIS SETUP ON
UPPER MI WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS. A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER PERIOD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE FM YESTERDAYS SHRA COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT MAINLY KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN
KSAW TAFS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH KIWD ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM AT
TIMES...HAVE PUT THEM AT VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS/SRF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 310535
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
STAGNANT WEATHER. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MID TO HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
WEAK WAVE SKIRTING MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER CHANCES OVER LAND...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

A STRONGER EMBEDDED THROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
COMBINED WITH MORE DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OVER 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF UNDER 20 KNOTS...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MID 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON LAKE BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST MAY
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO UPPER MI LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THIS
TIME AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE DECAYING FRONT HAS LEFT.
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THUS DIFFERENT...WITH THE ECMWF
DISPLAYING QPF ACROSS UPPER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE GEM
ALL DAY MONDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING...THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTRIGUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MLCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
QUITE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL NOT GET ANY
MORE DETAILED ATTM. HOWEVER...THOUGHT IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE DECAYING
SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE IMPACT OF THIS SETUP ON
UPPER MI WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS. A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER PERIOD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE FM YESTERDAYS SHRA COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AT MAINLY KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN
KSAW TAFS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH KIWD ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM AT
TIMES...HAVE PUT THEM AT VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT LAKE BREEZE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THU.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS/SRF
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 302350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
STAGNANT WEATHER. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MID TO HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
WEAK WAVE SKIRTING MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER CHANCES OVER LAND...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

A STRONGER EMBEDDED THROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
COMBINED WITH MORE DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OVER 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF UNDER 20 KNOTS...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MID 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON LAKE BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST MAY
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO UPPER MI LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THIS
TIME AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE DECAYING FRONT HAS LEFT.
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THUS DIFFERENT...WITH THE ECMWF
DISPLAYING QPF ACROSS UPPER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE GEM
ALL DAY MONDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING...THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTRIGUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MLCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
QUITE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL NOT GET ANY
MORE DETAILED ATTM. HOWEVER...THOUGHT IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE DECAYING
SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE IMPACT OF THIS SETUP ON
UPPER MI WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS. A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER PERIOD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WERE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL DURING THE FCST PD. LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG AND MVFR VSBY WILL LIKELY BE AT KSAW WHERE THEY SAW
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 302350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
STAGNANT WEATHER. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MID TO HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
WEAK WAVE SKIRTING MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER CHANCES OVER LAND...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

A STRONGER EMBEDDED THROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
COMBINED WITH MORE DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OVER 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF UNDER 20 KNOTS...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MID 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON LAKE BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST MAY
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO UPPER MI LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THIS
TIME AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE DECAYING FRONT HAS LEFT.
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THUS DIFFERENT...WITH THE ECMWF
DISPLAYING QPF ACROSS UPPER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE GEM
ALL DAY MONDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING...THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTRIGUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MLCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
QUITE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL NOT GET ANY
MORE DETAILED ATTM. HOWEVER...THOUGHT IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE DECAYING
SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE IMPACT OF THIS SETUP ON
UPPER MI WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS. A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER PERIOD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WERE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAINFALL DURING THE FCST PD. LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG AND MVFR VSBY WILL LIKELY BE AT KSAW WHERE THEY SAW
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 302021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
STAGNANT WEATHER. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MID TO HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
WEAK WAVE SKIRTING MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER CHANCES OVER LAND...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

A STRONGER EMBEDDED THROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
COMBINED WITH MORE DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OVER 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF UNDER 20 KNOTS...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MID 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON LAKE BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST MAY
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO UPPER MI LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THIS
TIME AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE DECAYING FRONT HAS LEFT.
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THUS DIFFERENT...WITH THE ECMWF
DISPLAYING QPF ACROSS UPPER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE GEM
ALL DAY MONDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING...THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTRIGUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MLCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
QUITE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL NOT GET ANY
MORE DETAILED ATTM. HOWEVER...THOUGHT IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE DECAYING
SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE IMPACT OF THIS SETUP ON
UPPER MI WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS. A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER PERIOD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 302021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
STAGNANT WEATHER. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MID TO HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
WEAK WAVE SKIRTING MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER CHANCES OVER LAND...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

A STRONGER EMBEDDED THROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
COMBINED WITH MORE DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OVER 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF UNDER 20 KNOTS...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MID 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON LAKE BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST MAY
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO UPPER MI LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THIS
TIME AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE DECAYING FRONT HAS LEFT.
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THUS DIFFERENT...WITH THE ECMWF
DISPLAYING QPF ACROSS UPPER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE GEM
ALL DAY MONDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING...THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTRIGUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MLCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
QUITE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL NOT GET ANY
MORE DETAILED ATTM. HOWEVER...THOUGHT IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE DECAYING
SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE IMPACT OF THIS SETUP ON
UPPER MI WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS. A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER PERIOD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 301956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 301956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 301809
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH INCREASING SUNLIGHT GIVING A BETTER IDEA OF FOG COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST AND EAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. SINCE SEVERAL CAMS AND OBS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2MI...WILL BE ISSUING AN
SPS SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND DISSIPATION TIME
BETWEEN 9 AND 10AM. THAT ENDING TIME IS BASED OFF GOES-R CLOUD
THICKNESS DATA...WHICH INDICATES IT BEING AROUND 1000FT IN THE
THICKEST AREAS. BASED OFF RESEARCH FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AND CLOUD
THICKNESS...VALUES AROUND 1KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE 3 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 301809
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH INCREASING SUNLIGHT GIVING A BETTER IDEA OF FOG COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST AND EAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. SINCE SEVERAL CAMS AND OBS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2MI...WILL BE ISSUING AN
SPS SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND DISSIPATION TIME
BETWEEN 9 AND 10AM. THAT ENDING TIME IS BASED OFF GOES-R CLOUD
THICKNESS DATA...WHICH INDICATES IT BEING AROUND 1000FT IN THE
THICKEST AREAS. BASED OFF RESEARCH FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AND CLOUD
THICKNESS...VALUES AROUND 1KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE 3 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 301141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH INCREASING SUNLIGHT GIVING A BETTER IDEA OF FOG COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST AND EAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. SINCE SEVERAL CAMS AND OBS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2MI...WILL BE ISSUING AN
SPS SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND DISSIPATION TIME
BETWEEN 9 AND 10AM. THAT ENDING TIME IS BASED OFF GOES-R CLOUD
THICKNESS DATA...WHICH INDICATES IT BEING AROUND 1000FT IN THE
THICKEST AREAS. BASED OFF RESEARCH FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AND CLOUD
THICKNESS...VALUES AROUND 1KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE 3 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LINGERING FOG AT KIWD (CREATING VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4MI) SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SUNSHINE INCREASES
MIXING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AT ALL THREE SITES.
THINK KSAW HAS THE BEST CHANCE OVERALL OF SEEING RAIN (DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING...LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND THE SHORTWAVE) AND
WENT WITH -SHRA MENTION. THE OTHER TWO SITES THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AS IT WILL TAKE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY HIT THOSE
SITES. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...SKIES WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 301141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH INCREASING SUNLIGHT GIVING A BETTER IDEA OF FOG COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST AND EAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. SINCE SEVERAL CAMS AND OBS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2MI...WILL BE ISSUING AN
SPS SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND DISSIPATION TIME
BETWEEN 9 AND 10AM. THAT ENDING TIME IS BASED OFF GOES-R CLOUD
THICKNESS DATA...WHICH INDICATES IT BEING AROUND 1000FT IN THE
THICKEST AREAS. BASED OFF RESEARCH FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AND CLOUD
THICKNESS...VALUES AROUND 1KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE 3 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 739 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LINGERING FOG AT KIWD (CREATING VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4MI) SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SUNSHINE INCREASES
MIXING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AT ALL THREE SITES.
THINK KSAW HAS THE BEST CHANCE OVERALL OF SEEING RAIN (DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING...LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND THE SHORTWAVE) AND
WENT WITH -SHRA MENTION. THE OTHER TWO SITES THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER AS IT WILL TAKE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY HIT THOSE
SITES. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...SKIES WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 301047
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH INCREASING SUNLIGHT GIVING A BETTER IDEA OF FOG COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST AND EAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. SINCE SEVERAL CAMS AND OBS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2MI...WILL BE ISSUING AN
SPS SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND DISSIPATION TIME
BETWEEN 9 AND 10AM. THAT ENDING TIME IS BASED OFF GOES-R CLOUD
THICKNESS DATA...WHICH INDICATES IT BEING AROUND 1000FT IN THE
THICKEST AREAS. BASED OFF RESEARCH FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AND CLOUD
THICKNESS...VALUES AROUND 1KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE 3 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 301047
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH INCREASING SUNLIGHT GIVING A BETTER IDEA OF FOG COVERAGE OVER
THE WEST AND EAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST. SINCE SEVERAL CAMS AND OBS
INDICATE VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2MI...WILL BE ISSUING AN
SPS SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND DISSIPATION TIME
BETWEEN 9 AND 10AM. THAT ENDING TIME IS BASED OFF GOES-R CLOUD
THICKNESS DATA...WHICH INDICATES IT BEING AROUND 1000FT IN THE
THICKEST AREAS. BASED OFF RESEARCH FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AND CLOUD
THICKNESS...VALUES AROUND 1KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE 3 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 300852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 300852
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT LED TO THE SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLID SOUTH
OF THE CWA AND IS DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES HAS PRODUCED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. 3AM TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50 AS A RESULT OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH HAS ALSO CREATED PATCHY-AREAS OF GROUND FOG. AT
THIS POINT...THE THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED OVER THE
EAST (VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4MI AT KERY AND 1/2MI AT KISQ) WHERE
FOG OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS MOVED ON SHORE. OVER THE FAR
WEST (GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES) FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED SHOWERS YESTERDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE
DAY.

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD (CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN ONTARIO). AHEAD OF THE WAVE...A 65-75KT 200-250MB JET
STREAK WILL ROTATE THROUGH...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY SEPARATED FROM THE
SHORTWAVE. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEEING
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (VERY MOIST PROFILE
ON THE 00Z CWZC)...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TODAY...IT WILL BRING A POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK THE COMBINATION OF THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...LARGELY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE POPS
FOR TODAY...WITH THE IDEA OF A SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WHERE LAKE...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IT SEEMS THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO TREND AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
WERE INDICATED OVER THE LAST DAY...LARGELY DUE TO THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR AND LATER SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL. THUS...CURRENT FORECAST FOR
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. IN ADDITION...EXPECT
SOME DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. AS FOR THUNDER...THINK OPPORTUNITY IS
BECOMING MORE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS
FINALLY LOCKED INTO THE OTHER MODELS ON LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY
(WHICH HAS CAUSED IT TO CUT WAY BACK ON DIURNAL PRECIP). THIS
LOWERED MLCAPES TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH EVERYTHING ELSE AND
GENERALLY 50-200 J/KG. WILL CAP THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT
CHANCES...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE BELOW NORMAL TREND AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...SECOND SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY) WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD...THINK AREAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THEY COULD END UP
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO HAVE HELD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR. THE CENTRAL AND EAST MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG...BUT IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300817
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
417 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300817
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
417 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE LOW LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE...FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW STILL IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY...NAM/GFS
/GEM-NH AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE BATCH OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY OF UPR MICHIGAN
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
IMPORTANT THOUGH AS IF THE FROPA IS QUICKER NNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
MORE STABLE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA BY PEAK HEATING OF THURSDAY AFTN.
GEM-REGIONAL AND NAM QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT IDEA INDICATING LITTLE
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW THE HIGHER POPS...ONLY LOWER
CHANCES...OVER THE FAR SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN WHERE GREATER CONVERGENCE
WOULD BE FM THE LARGER SCALE FRONT AND LK MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE.
OVERALL THOUGH...SEEMS THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING AWAY FM MUCH IN WAY
OF SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY AS STABILIZING FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR IS
DOMINANT FACTOR.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S FOR COOL SPOTS FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN. ON INTO THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT NW/N FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. RESULT WILL BE MORE LAKE BREEZES AND BETTER
SHOT AT INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP OVER INLAND AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH MID 70S MOST AREAS. IF THERE
IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE OR POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/LIFT ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING UPR LOW...AS THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES...THEN
WOULD EXPECT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS AND BETTER SHOT AT
TSRA AS WELL GIVEN THE WARMER SFC TEMPS. BASED ON WHERE HIGHEST
MLCAPES ARE FORECAST AND WITH H7 WINDS FM NW...BEST CHANCE OF TSRA
WOULD BE ALONG WI BORDER OVER IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.

HEIGHTS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND SFC
HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST
PART. MORE TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SFC FRONTS CROSS THE AREA AS WELL WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS POPS SHOWING MID RANGE
CHANCE POPS SEEMED GOOD...MAXIMIZING ON SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GFS
AND GEM-NH POINT TO STRONGER STORMS MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR RAMPS UP OVER 30 KTS AND MLCAPES INCREASE TO 1000J/KG. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTN FOR STRONGER STORMS.
EITHER WAY...NEITHER DAY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET FOR STRONG STORMS...WHICH
IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER THUS FAR IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER BY THAT
TIME. GENERALLY SEEMS THAT OVERALL PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH TREND WILL BE TOWARD ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERIST RIGHT ON THROUGH MID AUGUST PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
LATEST CPC FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 300537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION AND CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH.
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES PLAGUE THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. DAYTIME/MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AWAY FROM THE COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S /INTERIOR
W/...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL.

THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW NEAR AND S OF JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NE
ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE W NUDGES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI...AND THE SFC 30.2IN HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THE NW FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE SE AND IS REPLACED
BY YET ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO KEPT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 300537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION AND CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH.
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES PLAGUE THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. DAYTIME/MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AWAY FROM THE COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S /INTERIOR
W/...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL.

THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW NEAR AND S OF JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NE
ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE W NUDGES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI...AND THE SFC 30.2IN HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THE NW FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE SE AND IS REPLACED
BY YET ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO KEPT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT FOG TO IMPACT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG WITH MID LVL
DRYING OVER THE LLVL MSTR...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING AS LO AS LIFR/
VLIFR MAINLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED SAW/IWD SITES. THIS FOG WL BURN
OFF AFT SUNRISE. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW IN
THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT MOVES OVER THESE
SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE. ANY SHRA WL DIMINISH IN THE EVNG
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DISTURANCE AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 292323
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION AND CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH.
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES PLAGUE THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. DAYTIME/MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AWAY FROM THE COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S /INTERIOR
W/...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL.

THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW NEAR AND S OF JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NE
ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE W NUDGES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI...AND THE SFC 30.2IN HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THE NW FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE SE AND IS REPLACED
BY YET ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO KEPT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHRA AND PSBLY A TS WL IMPACT IWD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...OTRW
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WX THIS EVNG. WITH SOME MID LVL
DRYING BUT STILL RATHER HUMID LLVLS AND LGT WINDS...RADIATION FOG
MAY IMPACT ALL THE SITES IN THE PRE DAWN HRS ON WED. THE BEST CHC
FOR THE FOG WL BE AT IWD...WHERE HEAVIER RA FELL TODAY. THIS FOG WL
BURN OFF AFT SUNRISE ON WED. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW IN THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI
IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT
MOVES OVER THESE SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A BRIEF TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 292323
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION AND CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH.
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES PLAGUE THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. DAYTIME/MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AWAY FROM THE COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S /INTERIOR
W/...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL.

THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW NEAR AND S OF JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NE
ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE W NUDGES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI...AND THE SFC 30.2IN HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THE NW FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE SE AND IS REPLACED
BY YET ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO KEPT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHRA AND PSBLY A TS WL IMPACT IWD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...OTRW
PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WX THIS EVNG. WITH SOME MID LVL
DRYING BUT STILL RATHER HUMID LLVLS AND LGT WINDS...RADIATION FOG
MAY IMPACT ALL THE SITES IN THE PRE DAWN HRS ON WED. THE BEST CHC
FOR THE FOG WL BE AT IWD...WHERE HEAVIER RA FELL TODAY. THIS FOG WL
BURN OFF AFT SUNRISE ON WED. MORE SHRA MAY THEN IMPACT CMX AND
ESPECIALLY SAW IN THE AFTN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES ERN UPR MI
IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT
MOVES OVER THESE SITES COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A BRIEF TIME...VFR WX WL PREDOMINATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 292020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION AND CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH.
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES PLAGUE THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. DAYTIME/MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AWAY FROM THE COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S /INTERIOR
W/...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL.

THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW NEAR AND S OF JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NE
ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE W NUDGES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI...AND THE SFC 30.2IN HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THE NW FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE SE AND IS REPLACED
BY YET ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO KEPT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH VCSH AT CMX AND SAW BECAUSE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE S OF THOSE AIRPORTS. AT IWD...WENT WITH VCSH BECAUSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THEY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET...BUT BETTER
COVERAGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE.

EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS










000
FXUS63 KMQT 292020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A 500MB
TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE NATION AND CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W. THE RESULT WILL BE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH.
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES PLAGUE THIS ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. DAYTIME/MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AWAY FROM THE COOLER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S /INTERIOR
W/...SO TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL.

THE PERSISTENT 500MB LOW NEAR AND S OF JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NE
ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE W NUDGES ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI...AND THE SFC 30.2IN HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.

THE NW FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AS THE SFC HIGH SINKS TO THE SE AND IS REPLACED
BY YET ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH. TUESDAY IS A BIT MORE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...SO KEPT WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH VCSH AT CMX AND SAW BECAUSE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE S OF THOSE AIRPORTS. AT IWD...WENT WITH VCSH BECAUSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THEY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET...BUT BETTER
COVERAGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE.

EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS









000
FXUS63 KMQT 291953
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH VCSH AT CMX AND SAW BECAUSE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE S OF THOSE AIRPORTS. AT IWD...WENT WITH VCSH BECAUSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THEY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET...BUT BETTER
COVERAGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE.

EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 291953
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A SFC
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ERN UPPER MI. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH THUNDER
LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE SHOWERS THAT ARE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS
SCENTRAL UPPER MI AND NERN WI. 500-1000J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 20-25KTS ARE ANALYZED...HIGHEST ALONG THE SRN/SWRN
BORDER OF THE CWA. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CONVECTION TO SINK S
WITH THE SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH AND DWINDLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES. THINK THAT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE STORMS...BUT COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO SEE NEARLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ADDED FOG OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TOMORROW AS FOG IS
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND THE GRAND MARAIS WEBCAM...ALONG WITH A SHIP
OBSERVATION.

SIMILAR SETUP FOR WED AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500J/KG /AGAIN WITH
SKINNY CAPE/ WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE 30-35KTS...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR NON-SEVERE STORMS FOCUSING
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH VCSH AT CMX AND SAW BECAUSE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE S OF THOSE AIRPORTS. AT IWD...WENT WITH VCSH BECAUSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THEY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET...BUT BETTER
COVERAGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE.

EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291751
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
WHILE ANOTHER FRONT...PRETTY WEAK AS WELL...IS STILL TO NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
RIDGING AT THE SFC TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
DRIVE THE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES OVER UPR MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE AND TRENDS FROM LAST COUPLE DAYS...EXPECT
MAXIMUM OF COVERAGE TO SHRA AND TSRA TO OCCUR WHERE THESE FEATURES
SYNC UP WITH PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. NWS RADAR LOOP FM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...THANKFULLY INCLUDING MQT RADAR AGAIN...ALONG
WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN SHRA/TSRA ATTM OVER UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WITHIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
TO NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BY LATE AFTN...AXIS OF HIGHER RH AND MLCAPE
UP TO 500J/KG WILL BE MORE ORIENTED FM WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A MINIMUM IN FORCING AND
MOISTURE AND MLCAPES FM ISLE ROYALE TO EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWED
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTN. AFTER THE ISOLD SHRA AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK DEPART OVER
THE EAST CWA...LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIRECT IMPACT FM THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO YDY...WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND INTO THE LWR 70S OVER THE SCNTRL.

CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE SKINNY
WITH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 0.1. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY TRY
TO REACH 30-35 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL SETUP OF MORE CLOUDS AND
LESS REALIZED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS STRONGER STORMS STAYING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA WHERE MLCAPES ARE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG THIS
AFTN. EVEN SO...CANNOT COUNT OUT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM THE KEWEENAW.
MEAN STORM MOTION/H7 WINDS ARE ORIENTED NW TO SE BUT MORE ORGANIZED
OR STRONGER STORMS WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH TO SOUTH...SIMILAR TO ISOLD
STORM THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WI JUST TO WEST
OF KIWD.

MODELS AGREE THAT RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE GENERALLY THERE IS SUBSIDENCE/Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER
UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FM LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD FADE
AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING NEAR WI BORDER WITH NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UVM CURRENTLY JUST TO WEST OF JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT AS THIS DROPS SOUTH...DID NOT CARRY ANY ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. COULD SEE FOG OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING AND LIGHT
WINDS TAKE HOLD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH VCSH AT CMX AND SAW BECAUSE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE S OF THOSE AIRPORTS. AT IWD...WENT WITH VCSH BECAUSE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THEY HAVE NOT DEVELOPED YET...BUT BETTER
COVERAGE IS QUITE POSSIBLE THERE.

EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...BUT AM UNCERTAIN ON
THE EXTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291132
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
WHILE ANOTHER FRONT...PRETTY WEAK AS WELL...IS STILL TO NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
RIDGING AT THE SFC TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
DRIVE THE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES OVER UPR MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE AND TRENDS FROM LAST COUPLE DAYS...EXPECT
MAXIMUM OF COVERAGE TO SHRA AND TSRA TO OCCUR WHERE THESE FEATURES
SYNC UP WITH PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. NWS RADAR LOOP FM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...THANKFULLY INCLUDING MQT RADAR AGAIN...ALONG
WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN SHRA/TSRA ATTM OVER UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WITHIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
TO NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BY LATE AFTN...AXIS OF HIGHER RH AND MLCAPE
UP TO 500J/KG WILL BE MORE ORIENTED FM WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A MINIMUM IN FORCING AND
MOISTURE AND MLCAPES FM ISLE ROYALE TO EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWED
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTN. AFTER THE ISOLD SHRA AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK DEPART OVER
THE EAST CWA...LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIRECT IMPACT FM THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO YDY...WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND INTO THE LWR 70S OVER THE SCNTRL.

CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE SKINNY
WITH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 0.1. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY TRY
TO REACH 30-35 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL SETUP OF MORE CLOUDS AND
LESS REALIZED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS STRONGER STORMS STAYING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA WHERE MLCAPES ARE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG THIS
AFTN. EVEN SO...CANNOT COUNT OUT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM THE KEWEENAW.
MEAN STORM MOTION/H7 WINDS ARE ORIENTED NW TO SE BUT MORE ORGANIZED
OR STRONGER STORMS WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH TO SOUTH...SIMILAR TO ISOLD
STORM THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WI JUST TO WEST
OF KIWD.

MODELS AGREE THAT RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE GENERALLY THERE IS SUBSIDENCE/Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER
UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FM LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD FADE
AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING NEAR WI BORDER WITH NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UVM CURRENTLY JUST TO WEST OF JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT AS THIS DROPS SOUTH...DID NOT CARRY ANY ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. COULD SEE FOG OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING AND LIGHT
WINDS TAKE HOLD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS DROPPING TOWARD THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR VSBY DURING THESE SHOWERS.
VICINITY SHOWERS AT KIWD AND KSAW INTO THE AFTN. KEPT ANY MENTION OF
TSRA OUT OF TAFS AS IT SEEMS GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN. BY LATE TODAY...EXPECT DRYING TO END SHOWERS AT ALL
THE TERMINALS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. WENT
MORE BULLISH THAN THE MODELS FOR FOG TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES BASED
ON LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DUE TO THE RAIN THAT
OCCURS TODAY. BEST SHOT OF IFR CONDS WILL BE AT KIWD CLOSER TO THE
SFC RIDGE/DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 291132
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
WHILE ANOTHER FRONT...PRETTY WEAK AS WELL...IS STILL TO NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
RIDGING AT THE SFC TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
DRIVE THE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES OVER UPR MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE AND TRENDS FROM LAST COUPLE DAYS...EXPECT
MAXIMUM OF COVERAGE TO SHRA AND TSRA TO OCCUR WHERE THESE FEATURES
SYNC UP WITH PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. NWS RADAR LOOP FM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...THANKFULLY INCLUDING MQT RADAR AGAIN...ALONG
WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN SHRA/TSRA ATTM OVER UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WITHIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
TO NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BY LATE AFTN...AXIS OF HIGHER RH AND MLCAPE
UP TO 500J/KG WILL BE MORE ORIENTED FM WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A MINIMUM IN FORCING AND
MOISTURE AND MLCAPES FM ISLE ROYALE TO EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWED
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTN. AFTER THE ISOLD SHRA AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK DEPART OVER
THE EAST CWA...LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIRECT IMPACT FM THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO YDY...WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND INTO THE LWR 70S OVER THE SCNTRL.

CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE SKINNY
WITH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 0.1. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY TRY
TO REACH 30-35 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL SETUP OF MORE CLOUDS AND
LESS REALIZED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS STRONGER STORMS STAYING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA WHERE MLCAPES ARE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG THIS
AFTN. EVEN SO...CANNOT COUNT OUT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM THE KEWEENAW.
MEAN STORM MOTION/H7 WINDS ARE ORIENTED NW TO SE BUT MORE ORGANIZED
OR STRONGER STORMS WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH TO SOUTH...SIMILAR TO ISOLD
STORM THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WI JUST TO WEST
OF KIWD.

MODELS AGREE THAT RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE GENERALLY THERE IS SUBSIDENCE/Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER
UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FM LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD FADE
AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING NEAR WI BORDER WITH NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UVM CURRENTLY JUST TO WEST OF JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT AS THIS DROPS SOUTH...DID NOT CARRY ANY ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. COULD SEE FOG OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING AND LIGHT
WINDS TAKE HOLD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREA OF SHOWERS DROPPING TOWARD THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR VSBY DURING THESE SHOWERS.
VICINITY SHOWERS AT KIWD AND KSAW INTO THE AFTN. KEPT ANY MENTION OF
TSRA OUT OF TAFS AS IT SEEMS GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
UPR MICHIGAN. BY LATE TODAY...EXPECT DRYING TO END SHOWERS AT ALL
THE TERMINALS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. WENT
MORE BULLISH THAN THE MODELS FOR FOG TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES BASED
ON LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DUE TO THE RAIN THAT
OCCURS TODAY. BEST SHOT OF IFR CONDS WILL BE AT KIWD CLOSER TO THE
SFC RIDGE/DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 290809
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
WHILE ANOTHER FRONT...PRETTY WEAK AS WELL...IS STILL TO NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
RIDGING AT THE SFC TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
DRIVE THE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES OVER UPR MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE AND TRENDS FROM LAST COUPLE DAYS...EXPECT
MAXIMUM OF COVERAGE TO SHRA AND TSRA TO OCCUR WHERE THESE FEATURES
SYNC UP WITH PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. NWS RADAR LOOP FM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...THANKFULLY INCLUDING MQT RADAR AGAIN...ALONG
WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN SHRA/TSRA ATTM OVER UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WITHIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
TO NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BY LATE AFTN...AXIS OF HIGHER RH AND MLCAPE
UP TO 500J/KG WILL BE MORE ORIENTED FM WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A MINIMUM IN FORCING AND
MOISTURE AND MLCAPES FM ISLE ROYALE TO EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWED
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTN. AFTER THE ISOLD SHRA AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK DEPART OVER
THE EAST CWA...LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIRECT IMPACT FM THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO YDY...WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND INTO THE LWR 70S OVER THE SCNTRL.

CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE SKINNY
WITH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 0.1. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY TRY
TO REACH 30-35 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL SETUP OF MORE CLOUDS AND
LESS REALIZED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS STRONGER STORMS STAYING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA WHERE MLCAPES ARE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG THIS
AFTN. EVEN SO...CANNOT COUNT OUT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM THE KEWEENAW.
MEAN STORM MOTION/H7 WINDS ARE ORIENTED NW TO SE BUT MORE ORGANIZED
OR STRONGER STORMS WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH TO SOUTH...SIMILAR TO ISOLD
STORM THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WI JUST TO WEST
OF KIWD.

MODELS AGREE THAT RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE GENERALLY THERE IS SUBSIDENCE/Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER
UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FM LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD FADE
AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING NEAR WI BORDER WITH NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UVM CURRENTLY JUST TO WEST OF JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT AS THIS DROPS SOUTH...DID NOT CARRY ANY ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. COULD SEE FOG OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING AND LIGHT
WINDS TAKE HOLD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND CMX THIS MRNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPR DISTURANCE AND UNDER AXIS OF SOMEWHAT MOISTER/
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE...LOWER
VSBYS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SINCE RA HAS
FALLEN AT IWD AND CMX...SOME FOG MAY LOWER VSBYS THERE TOWARD
SUNRISE IF THERE IS ENUF CLRG AT THOSE SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS WL IMPACT THE SITES LATER TODAY WITH THE APRCH
OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TS TO INCLUDE AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS ATTM. BEST SHOT AT KCMX WOULD BE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTN...WHILE IT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KIWD. ALTHOUGH
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL END THE SHOWER THREAT LATE IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...KC










000
FXUS63 KMQT 290809
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN UPR MICHIGAN
WHILE ANOTHER FRONT...PRETTY WEAK AS WELL...IS STILL TO NORTH OF LK
SUPERIOR. PASSAGE OF THE SECOND FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
RIDGING AT THE SFC TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT. HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
DRIVE THE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES OVER UPR MICHIGAN INTO TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE AND TRENDS FROM LAST COUPLE DAYS...EXPECT
MAXIMUM OF COVERAGE TO SHRA AND TSRA TO OCCUR WHERE THESE FEATURES
SYNC UP WITH PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. NWS RADAR LOOP FM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...THANKFULLY INCLUDING MQT RADAR AGAIN...ALONG
WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN SHRA/TSRA ATTM OVER UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WITHIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH AND ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
TO NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BY LATE AFTN...AXIS OF HIGHER RH AND MLCAPE
UP TO 500J/KG WILL BE MORE ORIENTED FM WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN TO
SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A MINIMUM IN FORCING AND
MOISTURE AND MLCAPES FM ISLE ROYALE TO EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWED
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTN. AFTER THE ISOLD SHRA AROUND THROUGH DAYBREAK DEPART OVER
THE EAST CWA...LIMITED DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIRECT IMPACT FM THE
INCOMING SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
RAIN TODAY. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS TO YDY...WITH 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR
AND INTO THE LWR 70S OVER THE SCNTRL.

CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE SKINNY
WITH NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 0.1. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY TRY
TO REACH 30-35 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT OVERALL SETUP OF MORE CLOUDS AND
LESS REALIZED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS STRONGER STORMS STAYING FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA WHERE MLCAPES ARE MORE TOWARD 1000J/KG THIS
AFTN. EVEN SO...CANNOT COUNT OUT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TO MID AFTN...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM THE KEWEENAW.
MEAN STORM MOTION/H7 WINDS ARE ORIENTED NW TO SE BUT MORE ORGANIZED
OR STRONGER STORMS WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH TO SOUTH...SIMILAR TO ISOLD
STORM THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST WI JUST TO WEST
OF KIWD.

MODELS AGREE THAT RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE GENERALLY THERE IS SUBSIDENCE/Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER
UPR MICHIGAN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FM LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD FADE
AWAY QUICKLY THIS EVENING NEAR WI BORDER WITH NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UVM CURRENTLY JUST TO WEST OF JAMES BAY IS FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF LK SUPERIOR...SO OTHER THAN INCREASING MID CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT AS THIS DROPS SOUTH...DID NOT CARRY ANY ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. COULD SEE FOG OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING AND LIGHT
WINDS TAKE HOLD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND CMX THIS MRNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPR DISTURANCE AND UNDER AXIS OF SOMEWHAT MOISTER/
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE...LOWER
VSBYS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SINCE RA HAS
FALLEN AT IWD AND CMX...SOME FOG MAY LOWER VSBYS THERE TOWARD
SUNRISE IF THERE IS ENUF CLRG AT THOSE SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS WL IMPACT THE SITES LATER TODAY WITH THE APRCH
OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TS TO INCLUDE AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS ATTM. BEST SHOT AT KCMX WOULD BE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTN...WHILE IT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KIWD. ALTHOUGH
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL END THE SHOWER THREAT LATE IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...KC









000
FXUS63 KMQT 290735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. OVER THE WRN CONUS
SITS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS BETWEEN A 1027MB
HIGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
A 997MB LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ARE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST IS JUST NNW OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SECOND...WHICH IS STRONGER AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO AND W OF JAMES BAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA THAN IN CANADA DUE TO THE CWA BEING DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER PEAK
HEATING...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER NWRN UPPER MI.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA ON TUE...RESULTING IN STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL APPEARS THAT CAPE VALUES WILL TOP OUT
AT 200-700J/KG AND WILL BE SKINNY. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 20-25KTS
AND SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. EXPECTATION IS TO AVOID SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...BUT
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS AT BEST. BEST
INSTABILITY BEING OVER THE SCENTRAL PUTS THAT AREA UNDER THE BEST
POPS AND SHOULD BE THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND CMX THIS MRNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPR DISTURANCE AND UNDER AXIS OF SOMEWHAT MOISTER/
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE...LOWER
VSBYS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SINCE RA HAS
FALLEN AT IWD AND CMX...SOME FOG MAY LOWER VSBYS THERE TOWARD
SUNRISE IF THERE IS ENUF CLRG AT THOSE SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS WL IMPACT THE SITES LATER TODAY WITH THE APRCH
OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TS TO INCLUDE AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS ATTM. BEST SHOT AT KCMX WOULD BE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTN...WHILE IT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KIWD. ALTHOUGH
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL END THE SHOWER THREAT LATE IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 290735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. OVER THE WRN CONUS
SITS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS BETWEEN A 1027MB
HIGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
A 997MB LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ARE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST IS JUST NNW OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SECOND...WHICH IS STRONGER AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO AND W OF JAMES BAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA THAN IN CANADA DUE TO THE CWA BEING DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER PEAK
HEATING...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER NWRN UPPER MI.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA ON TUE...RESULTING IN STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL APPEARS THAT CAPE VALUES WILL TOP OUT
AT 200-700J/KG AND WILL BE SKINNY. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 20-25KTS
AND SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. EXPECTATION IS TO AVOID SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...BUT
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS AT BEST. BEST
INSTABILITY BEING OVER THE SCENTRAL PUTS THAT AREA UNDER THE BEST
POPS AND SHOULD BE THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS/CANADA...EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE THE
COOLEST ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 8C...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 12C ON
THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO
HAVE THE COOLEST HIGHS OF THE WORK WEEK (IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S). WHILE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECT GENERALLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED (AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OR MAYBE EAST) AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BRUSHES
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT
ROTATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY BETWEEN 800-700MB. THUS...WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE STABILITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE ARE HINTS
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ON FRIDAY (HIGH END CHANCES)...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
A DRY SATURDAY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE MAY PROVIDE
SOME REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL...MLCAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 500 J/KG
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CAP AT SLIGHT CHANCES.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY HAVE MLCAPE VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SO WILL HAVE CHANCES THERE AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE WHERE
THERE ARE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE HELPED BY THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES STILL WEAK (15-20KTS) NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND CMX THIS MRNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPR DISTURANCE AND UNDER AXIS OF SOMEWHAT MOISTER/
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE...LOWER
VSBYS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SINCE RA HAS
FALLEN AT IWD AND CMX...SOME FOG MAY LOWER VSBYS THERE TOWARD
SUNRISE IF THERE IS ENUF CLRG AT THOSE SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS WL IMPACT THE SITES LATER TODAY WITH THE APRCH
OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TS TO INCLUDE AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS ATTM. BEST SHOT AT KCMX WOULD BE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTN...WHILE IT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KIWD. ALTHOUGH
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL END THE SHOWER THREAT LATE IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 290541
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
141 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. OVER THE WRN CONUS
SITS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS BETWEEN A 1027MB
HIGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
A 997MB LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ARE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST IS JUST NNW OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SECOND...WHICH IS STRONGER AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO AND W OF JAMES BAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA THAN IN CANADA DUE TO THE CWA BEING DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER PEAK
HEATING...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER NWRN UPPER MI.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA ON TUE...RESULTING IN STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL APPEARS THAT CAPE VALUES WILL TOP OUT
AT 200-700J/KG AND WILL BE SKINNY. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 20-25KTS
AND SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. EXPECTATION IS TO AVOID SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...BUT
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS AT BEST. BEST
INSTABILITY BEING OVER THE SCENTRAL PUTS THAT AREA UNDER THE BEST
POPS AND SHOULD BE THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13C FAR W TO 6C FAR E THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THANKS TO THE COOL 850MB READINGS AND PERSISTENT N OR NW FLOW.

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE 500MB LOW SET
UP ACROSS JAMES BAY...EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF OF THE
U.S. LOOK FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S./UP THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

THE 500MB LOW WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS S JAMES BAY/AND THE E HALF OF
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROMPTING HIGH CHANCE POPS W AND
CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME WAA ON GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW SFC-850MB THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW NEARING
THE CWA AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN/WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING
OVERHEAD...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT JUMP UP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THE 500MB LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT E INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...AND EJECT
TO FAR N QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/OVER S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT/ LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A
WAVE OF TWO ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ENDING OVER THE SE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND CMX THIS MRNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPR DISTURANCE AND UNDER AXIS OF SOMEWHAT MOISTER/
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE...LOWER
VSBYS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SINCE RA HAS
FALLEN AT IWD AND CMX...SOME FOG MAY LOWER VSBYS THERE TOWARD
SUNRISE IF THERE IS ENUF CLRG AT THOSE SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS WL IMPACT THE SITES LATER TODAY WITH THE APRCH
OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TS TO INCLUDE AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS ATTM. BEST SHOT AT KCMX WOULD BE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTN...WHILE IT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KIWD. ALTHOUGH
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL END THE SHOWER THREAT LATE IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 290541
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
141 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. OVER THE WRN CONUS
SITS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS BETWEEN A 1027MB
HIGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
A 997MB LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ARE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST IS JUST NNW OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SECOND...WHICH IS STRONGER AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO AND W OF JAMES BAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA THAN IN CANADA DUE TO THE CWA BEING DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER PEAK
HEATING...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER NWRN UPPER MI.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA ON TUE...RESULTING IN STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL APPEARS THAT CAPE VALUES WILL TOP OUT
AT 200-700J/KG AND WILL BE SKINNY. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 20-25KTS
AND SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. EXPECTATION IS TO AVOID SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...BUT
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS AT BEST. BEST
INSTABILITY BEING OVER THE SCENTRAL PUTS THAT AREA UNDER THE BEST
POPS AND SHOULD BE THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13C FAR W TO 6C FAR E THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THANKS TO THE COOL 850MB READINGS AND PERSISTENT N OR NW FLOW.

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE 500MB LOW SET
UP ACROSS JAMES BAY...EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF OF THE
U.S. LOOK FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S./UP THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

THE 500MB LOW WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS S JAMES BAY/AND THE E HALF OF
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROMPTING HIGH CHANCE POPS W AND
CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME WAA ON GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW SFC-850MB THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW NEARING
THE CWA AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN/WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING
OVERHEAD...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT JUMP UP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THE 500MB LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT E INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...AND EJECT
TO FAR N QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/OVER S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT/ LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A
WAVE OF TWO ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ENDING OVER THE SE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EXPECT SCT-BKN SHOWERS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND CMX THIS MRNG IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPR DISTURANCE AND UNDER AXIS OF SOMEWHAT MOISTER/
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE...LOWER
VSBYS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SINCE RA HAS
FALLEN AT IWD AND CMX...SOME FOG MAY LOWER VSBYS THERE TOWARD
SUNRISE IF THERE IS ENUF CLRG AT THOSE SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND SOME TS WL IMPACT THE SITES LATER TODAY WITH THE APRCH
OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF TS TO INCLUDE AN
EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS ATTM. BEST SHOT AT KCMX WOULD BE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTN...WHILE IT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER AT KIWD. ALTHOUGH
MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL END THE SHOWER THREAT LATE IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC/JLA
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 282325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. OVER THE WRN CONUS
SITS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS BETWEEN A 1027MB
HIGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
A 997MB LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ARE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST IS JUST NNW OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SECOND...WHICH IS STRONGER AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO AND W OF JAMES BAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA THAN IN CANADA DUE TO THE CWA BEING DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER PEAK
HEATING...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER NWRN UPPER MI.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA ON TUE...RESULTING IN STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL APPEARS THAT CAPE VALUES WILL TOP OUT
AT 200-700J/KG AND WILL BE SKINNY. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 20-25KTS
AND SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. EXPECTATION IS TO AVOID SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...BUT
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS AT BEST. BEST
INSTABILITY BEING OVER THE SCENTRAL PUTS THAT AREA UNDER THE BEST
POPS AND SHOULD BE THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13C FAR W TO 6C FAR E THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THANKS TO THE COOL 850MB READINGS AND PERSISTENT N OR NW FLOW.

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE 500MB LOW SET
UP ACROSS JAMES BAY...EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF OF THE
U.S. LOOK FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S./UP THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

THE 500MB LOW WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS S JAMES BAY/AND THE E HALF OF
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROMPTING HIGH CHANCE POPS W AND
CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME WAA ON GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW SFC-850MB THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW NEARING
THE CWA AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN/WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING
OVERHEAD...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT JUMP UP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THE 500MB LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT E INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...AND EJECT
TO FAR N QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/OVER S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT/ LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A
WAVE OF TWO ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ENDING OVER THE SE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NNW FLOW ALF WL BRING SCT-BKN
CLDS AND SCT -SHRA TO UPR MI INTO TUE AFTN BEFORE SOME DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE SECOND PASSING DISTURBANCE DIMINISHES THE -SHRA THREAT.
EVEN IF THERE IS A -SHRA AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...THE LLVLS WL BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH A
TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVNG AND LATE TUE MRNG INTO THE AFTN
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRYING...THE CHC IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 282325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. OVER THE WRN CONUS
SITS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS BETWEEN A 1027MB
HIGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND
A 997MB LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ARE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA AND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE FIRST IS JUST NNW OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SECOND...WHICH IS STRONGER AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ONTARIO AND W OF JAMES BAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LESS COVERAGE
OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA THAN IN CANADA DUE TO THE CWA BEING DOWNWIND
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SINCE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER PEAK
HEATING...BOTH OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER NWRN UPPER MI.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA ON TUE...RESULTING IN STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL APPEARS THAT CAPE VALUES WILL TOP OUT
AT 200-700J/KG AND WILL BE SKINNY. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 20-25KTS
AND SHOULD BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. EXPECTATION IS TO AVOID SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...BUT
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS AT BEST. BEST
INSTABILITY BEING OVER THE SCENTRAL PUTS THAT AREA UNDER THE BEST
POPS AND SHOULD BE THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. 850MB TEMPS
WILL HOVER BETWEEN 13C FAR W TO 6C FAR E THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS EACH DAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THANKS TO THE COOL 850MB READINGS AND PERSISTENT N OR NW FLOW.

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE 500MB LOW SET
UP ACROSS JAMES BAY...EXTENDING A TROUGH ACROSS THE E HALF OF OF THE
U.S. LOOK FOR A SIZABLE RIDGE OVER THE W HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S./UP THROUGH ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

THE 500MB LOW WILL PUSH AS FAR S AS S JAMES BAY/AND THE E HALF OF
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROMPTING HIGH CHANCE POPS W AND
CENTRAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME WAA ON GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW SFC-850MB THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN LOW NEARING
THE CWA AND A DECENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING IN/WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING
OVERHEAD...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT JUMP UP TOO MUCH THANKS TO THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THE 500MB LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT E INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...AND EJECT
TO FAR N QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
/OVER S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT/ LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A
WAVE OF TWO ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN ON MONDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ENDING OVER THE SE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NNW FLOW ALF WL BRING SCT-BKN
CLDS AND SCT -SHRA TO UPR MI INTO TUE AFTN BEFORE SOME DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE SECOND PASSING DISTURBANCE DIMINISHES THE -SHRA THREAT.
EVEN IF THERE IS A -SHRA AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...THE LLVLS WL BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH A
TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVNG AND LATE TUE MRNG INTO THE AFTN
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRYING...THE CHC IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
725 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THE WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC






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