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000
FXUS63 KMQT 160856
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC JET
MAX MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WHICH HAS SUPPORTED A CLUSTER OF SHRA
ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NW ONTARIO AS NOTED ON CANADIAN
RADAR MOSIAC. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
HAVE ALLOWED FOR MIN TEMPS TO DROP NEAR OR BLO THE FREEZING MARK FOR
MANY OF THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD SPOT LOCATIONS ACROSS UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND ASSOC 900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACHING UPPER 60S FOR A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER NCNTRL
UPPER MI IN DEVELOPING WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO MAINLY THE NW AND ERN
CWA BY LATE EVENING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF
THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING/Q-VECT CONV TO BE OVER NW AND ERN
CWA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOC 100+ KT 3H JET MAX MOVING INTO
WRN QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER
MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE THE CWA TUE EVENING WILL HAVE A
WNW-ESE ORIENTATION OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 12Z WED...AND WILL MOVE
S OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF THE FRONT
AND BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT...USHERING IN DRY
AND COLDER AIR. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRECIP CHANCES IS THAT THE
GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA WED MORNING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ENERGY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER TO THE S...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER NRN
UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED A NARROW AREA OF
WAA AND GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT NEWEST RUNS SHOW
THAT BEING WELL SW OF THE CWA. THEREFOR...WHILE ERN UPPER MI SHOULD
STILL BE THE COLDEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND COLDEST
AIRMASS...THE WRN CWA COULD ALSO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE
FROST IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND UPPER MI.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC
HIGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THU DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE E SLOWS AND THE TROUGH TO THE W ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THE WAA AND POSSIBLY SOME  SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT BECOME MUCH HARDER TO USE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE /AT LEAST PARTLY/ TO WITH PHASING OF REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS DO ALL SHOW A
GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SAT...THEY DO NOT AGREE WELL IN THE FEATURES
CAUSING THE PRECIP. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SAT...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES GOING FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING...BUT AM NOT OVER CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAIN UNLESS REMNANTS OF ODILE END UP MOVING INTO THE AREA
/WHICH IS HIGH UNCERTAIN/. WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED ON SAT AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 15C.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH NW FLOW SUN AND MON...EVEN BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ECMWF SHOULD BE SET ASIDE BECAUSE IT IS A COLD
OUTLIER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT IWD AND CMX TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

EXPECT WSW WINDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRONT MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED
INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRES TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 160856
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC JET
MAX MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WHICH HAS SUPPORTED A CLUSTER OF SHRA
ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NW ONTARIO AS NOTED ON CANADIAN
RADAR MOSIAC. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
HAVE ALLOWED FOR MIN TEMPS TO DROP NEAR OR BLO THE FREEZING MARK FOR
MANY OF THE TYPICAL INTERIOR COLD SPOT LOCATIONS ACROSS UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND ASSOC 900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND PERHAPS
EVEN REACHING UPPER 60S FOR A FEW DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER NCNTRL
UPPER MI IN DEVELOPING WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO MAINLY THE NW AND ERN
CWA BY LATE EVENING. MODELS SHOW THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF
THE FRONT WITH THE BEST FORCING/Q-VECT CONV TO BE OVER NW AND ERN
CWA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOC 100+ KT 3H JET MAX MOVING INTO
WRN QUEBEC. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SHRA OVER
MAINLY THE KEWEENAW AND FAR NE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE THE CWA TUE EVENING WILL HAVE A
WNW-ESE ORIENTATION OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 12Z WED...AND WILL MOVE
S OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF THE FRONT
AND BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT...USHERING IN DRY
AND COLDER AIR. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRECIP CHANCES IS THAT THE
GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA WED MORNING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ENERGY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER TO THE S...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER NRN
UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED A NARROW AREA OF
WAA AND GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT NEWEST RUNS SHOW
THAT BEING WELL SW OF THE CWA. THEREFOR...WHILE ERN UPPER MI SHOULD
STILL BE THE COLDEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND COLDEST
AIRMASS...THE WRN CWA COULD ALSO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE
FROST IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND UPPER MI.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC
HIGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THU DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE E SLOWS AND THE TROUGH TO THE W ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THE WAA AND POSSIBLY SOME  SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT BECOME MUCH HARDER TO USE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE /AT LEAST PARTLY/ TO WITH PHASING OF REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS DO ALL SHOW A
GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SAT...THEY DO NOT AGREE WELL IN THE FEATURES
CAUSING THE PRECIP. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SAT...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES GOING FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING...BUT AM NOT OVER CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAIN UNLESS REMNANTS OF ODILE END UP MOVING INTO THE AREA
/WHICH IS HIGH UNCERTAIN/. WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED ON SAT AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 15C.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH NW FLOW SUN AND MON...EVEN BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ECMWF SHOULD BE SET ASIDE BECAUSE IT IS A COLD
OUTLIER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT IWD AND CMX TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

EXPECT WSW WINDS TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM ONTARIO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS FRONT MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED
INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF
STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30
KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. WINDS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRES TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 160725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL WI
INTO NE IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SE WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE COMINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C
RESULTING IN STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING ON THE NRN END OF THE SHRTWV AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
HAVE SUPPORTED ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE EAST...DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THE PCPN
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW
0.5 INCH...OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST INLAND
AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES AND OTHER FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE THE CWA TUE EVENING WILL HAVE A
WNW-ESE ORIENTATION OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 12Z WED...AND WILL MOVE
S OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF THE FRONT
AND BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT...USHERING IN DRY
AND COLDER AIR. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRECIP CHANCES IS THAT THE
GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA WED MORNING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ENERGY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER TO THE S...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER NRN
UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED A NARROW AREA OF
WAA AND GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT NEWEST RUNS SHOW
THAT BEING WELL SW OF THE CWA. THEREFOR...WHILE ERN UPPER MI SHOULD
STILL BE THE COLDEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND COLDEST
AIRMASS...THE WRN CWA COULD ALSO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE
FROST IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND UPPER MI.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC
HIGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THU DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE E SLOWS AND THE TROUGH TO THE W ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THE WAA AND POSSIBLY SOME  SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT BECOME MUCH HARDER TO USE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE /AT LEAST PARTLY/ TO WITH PHASING OF REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS DO ALL SHOW A
GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SAT...THEY DO NOT AGREE WELL IN THE FEATURES
CAUSING THE PRECIP. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SAT...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES GOING FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING...BUT AM NOT OVER CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAIN UNLESS REMNANTS OF ODILE END UP MOVING INTO THE AREA
/WHICH IS HIGH UNCERTAIN/. WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED ON SAT AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 15C.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH NW FLOW SUN AND MON...EVEN BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ECMWF SHOULD BE SET ASIDE BECAUSE IT IS A COLD
OUTLIER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT IWD AND CMX TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 160725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL WI
INTO NE IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SE WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE COMINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C
RESULTING IN STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING ON THE NRN END OF THE SHRTWV AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
HAVE SUPPORTED ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE EAST...DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THE PCPN
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW
0.5 INCH...OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST INLAND
AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES AND OTHER FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE THE CWA TUE EVENING WILL HAVE A
WNW-ESE ORIENTATION OVER THE CENTRAL CWA AT 12Z WED...AND WILL MOVE
S OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE N OF THE FRONT
AND BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT...USHERING IN DRY
AND COLDER AIR. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PRECIP CHANCES IS THAT THE
GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA WED MORNING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ENERGY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER TO THE S...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOLLOW THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 OVER NRN
UPPER MI NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL.

THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED A NARROW AREA OF
WAA AND GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT NEWEST RUNS SHOW
THAT BEING WELL SW OF THE CWA. THEREFOR...WHILE ERN UPPER MI SHOULD
STILL BE THE COLDEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND COLDEST
AIRMASS...THE WRN CWA COULD ALSO SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS. LOOKS LIKE
FROST IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND UPPER MI.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC
HIGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THU DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY INCREASE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE E SLOWS AND THE TROUGH TO THE W ACCELERATES
EASTWARD. THE WAA AND POSSIBLY SOME  SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT BECOME MUCH HARDER TO USE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE /AT LEAST PARTLY/ TO WITH PHASING OF REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS DO ALL SHOW A
GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF FOR SAT...THEY DO NOT AGREE WELL IN THE FEATURES
CAUSING THE PRECIP. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SAT...SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES GOING FOR FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING...BUT AM NOT OVER CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAIN UNLESS REMNANTS OF ODILE END UP MOVING INTO THE AREA
/WHICH IS HIGH UNCERTAIN/. WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED ON SAT AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 15C.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH NW FLOW SUN AND MON...EVEN BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BOTH DAYS. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ECMWF SHOULD BE SET ASIDE BECAUSE IT IS A COLD
OUTLIER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT IWD AND CMX TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 152256
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL WI
INTO NE IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SE WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE COMINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C
RESULTING IN STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING ON THE NRN END OF THE SHRTWV AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
HAVE SUPPORTED ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE EAST...DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THE PCPN
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW
0.5 INCH...OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST INLAND
AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES AND OTHER FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN (DUE TO
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND LOW QUICKLY PEELING EAST-NORTHEAST). WITH THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA (MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR)...WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND SHOW DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED FOR QPF...WITH 0.1-0.2 INCH OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TAPERING TO A TRACE-0.1 INCH OVER THE U.P.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH (WITH THE MAIN ENERGY IN ONTARIO) WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AS A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP UNDER LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN 925-850MB. THUS...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
UNDERNEATH THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 30 PERCENT
OF NORMAL).

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW THAT BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TO TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ZONAL...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THEM INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...DON/T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PHASING OF THOSE TWO FEATURES
LEAVES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO WILL
FOLLOW THE WARMER IDEA AND DIMINISH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT IWD AND CMX TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 152256
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL WI
INTO NE IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SE WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE COMINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C
RESULTING IN STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING ON THE NRN END OF THE SHRTWV AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
HAVE SUPPORTED ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE EAST...DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THE PCPN
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW
0.5 INCH...OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST INLAND
AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES AND OTHER FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN (DUE TO
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND LOW QUICKLY PEELING EAST-NORTHEAST). WITH THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA (MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR)...WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND SHOW DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED FOR QPF...WITH 0.1-0.2 INCH OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TAPERING TO A TRACE-0.1 INCH OVER THE U.P.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH (WITH THE MAIN ENERGY IN ONTARIO) WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AS A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP UNDER LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN 925-850MB. THUS...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
UNDERNEATH THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 30 PERCENT
OF NORMAL).

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW THAT BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TO TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ZONAL...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THEM INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...DON/T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PHASING OF THOSE TWO FEATURES
LEAVES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO WILL
FOLLOW THE WARMER IDEA AND DIMINISH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL GET GUSTY AT IWD AND CMX TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 152004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL WI
INTO NE IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SE WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE COMINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C
RESULTING IN STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING ON THE NRN END OF THE SHRTWV AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
HAVE SUPPORTED ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE EAST...DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THE PCPN
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW
0.5 INCH...OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST INLAND
AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES AND OTHER FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN (DUE TO
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND LOW QUICKLY PEELING EAST-NORTHEAST). WITH THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA (MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR)...WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND SHOW DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED FOR QPF...WITH 0.1-0.2 INCH OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TAPERING TO A TRACE-0.1 INCH OVER THE U.P.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH (WITH THE MAIN ENERGY IN ONTARIO) WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AS A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP UNDER LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN 925-850MB. THUS...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
UNDERNEATH THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 30 PERCENT
OF NORMAL).

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW THAT BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TO TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ZONAL...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THEM INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...DON/T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PHASING OF THOSE TWO FEATURES
LEAVES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO WILL
FOLLOW THE WARMER IDEA AND DIMINISH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 152004
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CNTRL WI
INTO NE IA SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN FROM SE WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI.
THE COMINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C
RESULTING IN STEEP SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH WEAK
FORCING ON THE NRN END OF THE SHRTWV AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
HAVE SUPPORTED ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAVE SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE EAST...DAYTIME HEATING
SUBSIDES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES...THE PCPN
WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AT OR BELOW
0.5 INCH...OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FROST INLAND
AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY IN THE WI BORDER
COUNTIES AND OTHER FAVORED COLD SPOTS INTO SW MARQUETTE COUNTY.

TUESDAY...SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY LIGHT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
900-800 MB FGEN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN (DUE TO
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND LOW QUICKLY PEELING EAST-NORTHEAST). WITH THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA (MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR)...WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND SHOW DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED FOR QPF...WITH 0.1-0.2 INCH OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TAPERING TO A TRACE-0.1 INCH OVER THE U.P.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH (WITH THE MAIN ENERGY IN ONTARIO) WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AS A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP UNDER LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN 925-850MB. THUS...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
UNDERNEATH THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 30 PERCENT
OF NORMAL).

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW THAT BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TO TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ZONAL...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THEM INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...DON/T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PHASING OF THOSE TWO FEATURES
LEAVES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO WILL
FOLLOW THE WARMER IDEA AND DIMINISH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 151904
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN (DUE TO
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND LOW QUICKLY PEELING EAST-NORTHEAST). WITH THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA (MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR)...WILL FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND SHOW DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH.
THAT SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED FOR QPF...WITH 0.1-0.2 INCH OVER
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR TAPERING TO A TRACE-0.1 INCH OVER THE U.P.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH (WITH THE MAIN ENERGY IN ONTARIO) WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE U.P. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER...MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS LINGERING AS A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP UNDER LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN 925-850MB. THUS...THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
UNDERNEATH THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 30 PERCENT
OF NORMAL).

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW THAT BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TO TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ZONAL...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THEM INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY AND BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...DON/T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PHASING OF THOSE TWO FEATURES
LEAVES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN
THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO WILL
FOLLOW THE WARMER IDEA AND DIMINISH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 151736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 151736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS









000
FXUS63 KMQT 151119
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
719 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 151119
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
719 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 150855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 150855
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
455 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 150733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 150733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 150515
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
115 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 150515
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
115 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 142253
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
653 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 142253
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
653 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 142002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES AT SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VCSH
WAS MENTIONED. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL SHIFT W BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT KCMX BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 142002
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE MOST
PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS DIVING INTO ERN MONTANA. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES NEAR CYQT HAD DRAGGED A COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN UPPER
MI. THE SHRTWV TAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
AND THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN TRACE PCPN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING
INTO W UPPER MI WITH A PROMINENT CU FIELD IN THE SEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR 4C.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THE
REMAINING SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE IN
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 1C. EXPECT MIN READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND.

MONDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST QVECTOR
CONV AND PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONTANA SHRTWV WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 1C TO SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES AT SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VCSH
WAS MENTIONED. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL SHIFT W BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT KCMX BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 141951
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PV
ANOMALY UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. PV ADVECTION AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED NARROW LINE OF SHRA FROM
WRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND THEN EXIT NE OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PV ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS SUGGEST MUCH OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF PROJECTED VORT TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING ALREADY NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SHRA OVER ERN COUNTIES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS
EVENING FOR ERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING/PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR AND
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE ERN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES AT SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VCSH
WAS MENTIONED. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL SHIFT W BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT KCMX BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA





000
FXUS63 KMQT 141951
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PV
ANOMALY UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. PV ADVECTION AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED NARROW LINE OF SHRA FROM
WRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND THEN EXIT NE OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PV ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS SUGGEST MUCH OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF PROJECTED VORT TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING ALREADY NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SHRA OVER ERN COUNTIES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS
EVENING FOR ERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING/PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR AND
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE ERN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE EVOLUTION OF OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHS CENTERED OVER ALASKA AND NUNAVUT
IN NORTHERN CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
MIDWEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WILL KEEP GETTING REINORCED AS UPPER JET ENERGY DIGGING SSE OVER
WESTERN CANADA SLIDES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT TIED TO THAT WAVE ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE AND RIBBON OF HIGHER H85-H7 RH MAY
RESULT IN LGT RAIN OR SHOWERS TURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH ARE ON
THE RIGHT TRACK. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A NOTICABLE COOLER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /NORMAL HIGHS AVERAGE THE MID 60S FOR
MID SEPT/.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS BTWN RIDGING EXPANDING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEPARTING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
RESULT. STILL COULD BE CHILLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST. HOWEVER...BASED ON THAT SIGNAL OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RIBBON FM ECMWF/GEM-NH...LOWEST TEMPS AND GREATEST RISK OF
FROST MIGHT END UP OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CWA.

BY LATE THIS WEEK...RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS REPLACED BY
TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAKS CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC
WELL OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CONUS COAST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHING WEST TO EAST. MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. NO REAL TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE JUMPED AROUND IN HOW QUICKLY TO
BRING THE TROUGH AND INITIAL SURGE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THE FRONT...AND MORE SO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ARRIVES COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY JUST SHRA ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE SINCE
THE SFC FRONT WOULD BE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS
ARE FORECAST 200-250 PCT OF NORMAL. AT FIRST GLANCE AND IT IS JUST
THAT...LOOKS LIKE ONLY A SMALLER RISK OF SEVERE WX AS INITIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAYBE UP TO 500 J/KG...ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
DOES NOT LINK UP WITH MUCH EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEN AS PRIMARY FRONT
COMES THROUGH EITHER SATURDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW...APPEARS BETTER
MLCAPE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO AREA OF 65F SFC DWPNTS.
ALL THAT SAID...GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP GREATER THAN FORECAST...WOULD BE AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH FRI AND SAT MAY TRY TO REACH 70 DEGREES IF THERE IS ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS H85 TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE +12C. A BIT
LOWER TEMPS NEXT SUNDAY...THOUGH COOLDOWN WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AS
THAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES AT SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VCSH
WAS MENTIONED. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL SHIFT W BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT KCMX BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WEST
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 25 KTS IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS
LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA






000
FXUS63 KMQT 141739
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PV
ANOMALY UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. PV ADVECTION AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED NARROW LINE OF SHRA FROM
WRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND THEN EXIT NE OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PV ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS SUGGEST MUCH OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF PROJECTED VORT TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING ALREADY NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SHRA OVER ERN COUNTIES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS
EVENING FOR ERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING/PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR AND
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE ERN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD ON SUN NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
A 1022MB SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ON MON. COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TUE THROUGH THU WILL BE MAINLY N/NE OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME LOWER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N/NNE TUE NIGHT
AND THEN STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING WED INTO THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED SINCE A
SFC HIGH MOVES JUST N/NE OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...RESULTING
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT MON
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRI INTO SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR JUST A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
SAT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR FRI AND SAT...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITIONAL FLOW. GENERAL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW WAA FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BRINGING A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 13C-15C. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WAA...POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED AT BY
MODELS...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC LOW OR TROUGH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF CLEARING...MAY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN SPOTS BOTH
DAYS...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
70.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT CMX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES AT SAW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VCSH
WAS MENTIONED. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL SHIFT W BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT KCMX BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A LOW PRES TROF OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
S TO SW WINDS OF 10-20 KT SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KTS LATE MON NIGHT THRU EARLY
WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE LATER WED THRU THU
HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 141108
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PV
ANOMALY UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. PV ADVECTION AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED NARROW LINE OF SHRA FROM
WRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND THEN EXIT NE OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PV ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS SUGGEST MUCH OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF PROJECTED VORT TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING ALREADY NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SHRA OVER ERN COUNTIES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS
EVENING FOR ERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING/PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR AND
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE ERN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD ON SUN NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
A 1022MB SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ON MON. COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TUE THROUGH THU WILL BE MAINLY N/NE OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME LOWER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N/NNE TUE NIGHT
AND THEN STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING WED INTO THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED SINCE A
SFC HIGH MOVES JUST N/NE OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...RESULTING
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT MON
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRI INTO SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR JUST A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
SAT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR FRI AND SAT...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITIONAL FLOW. GENERAL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW WAA FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BRINGING A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 13C-15C. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WAA...POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED AT BY
MODELS...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC LOW OR TROUGH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF CLEARING...MAY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN SPOTS BOTH
DAYS...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
70.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
MENTION AT KCMX. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL SHIFT W BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT KCMX BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A LOW PRES TROF OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
S TO SW WINDS OF 10-20 KT SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KTS LATE MON NIGHT THRU EARLY
WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE LATER WED THRU THU
HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 141108
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PV
ANOMALY UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. PV ADVECTION AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED NARROW LINE OF SHRA FROM
WRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND THEN EXIT NE OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PV ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS SUGGEST MUCH OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF PROJECTED VORT TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING ALREADY NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SHRA OVER ERN COUNTIES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS
EVENING FOR ERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING/PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR AND
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE ERN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD ON SUN NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
A 1022MB SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ON MON. COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TUE THROUGH THU WILL BE MAINLY N/NE OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME LOWER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N/NNE TUE NIGHT
AND THEN STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING WED INTO THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED SINCE A
SFC HIGH MOVES JUST N/NE OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...RESULTING
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT MON
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRI INTO SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR JUST A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
SAT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR FRI AND SAT...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITIONAL FLOW. GENERAL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW WAA FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BRINGING A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 13C-15C. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WAA...POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED AT BY
MODELS...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC LOW OR TROUGH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF CLEARING...MAY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN SPOTS BOTH
DAYS...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
70.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH
MENTION AT KCMX. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT WILL SHIFT W BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KTS AT KCMX BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A LOW PRES TROF OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
S TO SW WINDS OF 10-20 KT SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KTS LATE MON NIGHT THRU EARLY
WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE LATER WED THRU THU
HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 140857
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/PV
ANOMALY UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN. PV ADVECTION AND 290-295K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCED NARROW LINE OF SHRA FROM
WRN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND THEN EXIT NE OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. PV ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS SUGGEST MUCH OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF PROJECTED VORT TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI WITH
HIGHER CHC POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

TONIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING ALREADY NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SHRA OVER ERN COUNTIES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS
EVENING FOR ERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING/PARTIAL
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOW
TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR AND
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE ERN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD ON SUN NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
A 1022MB SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ON MON. COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TUE THROUGH THU WILL BE MAINLY N/NE OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME LOWER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N/NNE TUE NIGHT
AND THEN STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING WED INTO THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED SINCE A
SFC HIGH MOVES JUST N/NE OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...RESULTING
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT MON
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRI INTO SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR JUST A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
SAT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR FRI AND SAT...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITIONAL FLOW. GENERAL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW WAA FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BRINGING A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 13C-15C. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WAA...POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED AT BY
MODELS...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC LOW OR TROUGH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF CLEARING...MAY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN SPOTS BOTH
DAYS...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
70.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ON SUN...AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A LOW PRES TROF OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS
S TO SW WINDS OF 10-20 KT SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KTS LATE MON NIGHT THRU EARLY
WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE LATER WED THRU THU
HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 140801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI LAST NIGHT NOW MOVING THRU
SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED...ONE OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE WAVES WILL BRING THE NEXT PCPN CHC TO UPPER MI
ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY -1 TO -2C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. TYPICALLY AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVING SFC
WATER TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 7-9C...THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY. IN FACT...THE LAKE HAS
BEHAVED MOSTLY AS STABILIZING INFLUENCE. ONE BAND WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES DID STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WARMER WATER TO THE S AND E OF
THE KEWEENAW. THIS AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
IN ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. THESE SPRINKLES ARE DRIFTING SE THRU DELTA
AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WERE AT A MINIMUM
EARLIER TODAY...850MB THERMAL TROF COMBINED WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGAN.

TONIGHT...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL. WHILE CU/STRATOCU IS
STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE...THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORTWAVE TO THE W IS GENERATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL STREAM OVER THE FCST AREA
AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING BEING REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING. OTHER FACTOR WILL BE DEPARTURE OF HIGH
PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
THE EXITING HIGH AND APPROACHING SFC TROF... THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MIXING. THAT SAID...THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 45-55PCT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
AREA WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND TO EVEN THE
LOWER 30S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SO...FCST WILL SHOW PATCHY
FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVY. EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS TO RE-EXAMINE THE NEED
FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE BY LATE EVENING.

ON SUN...SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING PASSING JUST N OF THE AREA...ALONG AND N OF
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH MAINLY CHC POPS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN REACHING THE E MID TO LATE AFTN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD ON SUN NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
A 1022MB SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ON MON. COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TUE THROUGH THU WILL BE MAINLY N/NE OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME LOWER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N/NNE TUE NIGHT
AND THEN STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING WED INTO THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED SINCE A
SFC HIGH MOVES JUST N/NE OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...RESULTING
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT MON
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRI INTO SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR JUST A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
SAT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR FRI AND SAT...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITIONAL FLOW. GENERAL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW WAA FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BRINGING A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 13C-15C. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WAA...POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED AT BY
MODELS...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC LOW OR TROUGH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF CLEARING...MAY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN SPOTS BOTH
DAYS...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
70.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ON SUN...AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING S TO SW WINDS
TONIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE LOWER OBS PLATFORMS SHOULDN`T SEE WINDS
GREATER THAN THE 10-20KT RANGE...HIGH OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO MOSTLY 10-20KT
SUN NIGHT THRU MON. THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AGAIN LATE
MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE
LATER WED THRU THU HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 140801
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI LAST NIGHT NOW MOVING THRU
SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED...ONE OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE WAVES WILL BRING THE NEXT PCPN CHC TO UPPER MI
ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY -1 TO -2C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. TYPICALLY AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVING SFC
WATER TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 7-9C...THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY. IN FACT...THE LAKE HAS
BEHAVED MOSTLY AS STABILIZING INFLUENCE. ONE BAND WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES DID STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WARMER WATER TO THE S AND E OF
THE KEWEENAW. THIS AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
IN ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. THESE SPRINKLES ARE DRIFTING SE THRU DELTA
AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WERE AT A MINIMUM
EARLIER TODAY...850MB THERMAL TROF COMBINED WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGAN.

TONIGHT...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL. WHILE CU/STRATOCU IS
STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE...THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORTWAVE TO THE W IS GENERATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL STREAM OVER THE FCST AREA
AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING BEING REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING. OTHER FACTOR WILL BE DEPARTURE OF HIGH
PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
THE EXITING HIGH AND APPROACHING SFC TROF... THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MIXING. THAT SAID...THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 45-55PCT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
AREA WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND TO EVEN THE
LOWER 30S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SO...FCST WILL SHOW PATCHY
FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVY. EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS TO RE-EXAMINE THE NEED
FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE BY LATE EVENING.

ON SUN...SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING PASSING JUST N OF THE AREA...ALONG AND N OF
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH MAINLY CHC POPS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN REACHING THE E MID TO LATE AFTN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FOR MON...A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE BEHIND A SFC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD ON SUN NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
A 1022MB SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED ON MON. COULD SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OR RIGHT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AS THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES...WHICH MAY PROVIDE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TUE THROUGH THU WILL BE MAINLY N/NE OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME LOWER LEVEL FEATURES MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN. MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N/NNE TUE NIGHT
AND THEN STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE DIMINISHING WED INTO THU. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME IS TUE NIGHT INTO WED SINCE A
SFC HIGH MOVES JUST N/NE OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU...RESULTING
IN A DRIER AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FRONT MON
NIGHT AND WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRI INTO SAT...WHICH MAY LEAD
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR JUST A TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
SAT. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR FRI AND SAT...WHICH IS
TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/TRANSITIONAL FLOW. GENERAL
CONSENSUS DOES SHOW WAA FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BRINGING A WARMER
AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 13C-15C. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WAA...POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HINTED AT BY
MODELS...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SFC LOW OR TROUGH. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT
OF CLEARING...MAY SEE TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN SPOTS BOTH
DAYS...BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD COOLER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
70.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ON SUN...AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING S TO SW WINDS
TONIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE LOWER OBS PLATFORMS SHOULDN`T SEE WINDS
GREATER THAN THE 10-20KT RANGE...HIGH OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO MOSTLY 10-20KT
SUN NIGHT THRU MON. THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AGAIN LATE
MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE
LATER WED THRU THU HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 132315
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
715 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI LAST NIGHT NOW MOVING THRU
SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED...ONE OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE WAVES WILL BRING THE NEXT PCPN CHC TO UPPER MI
ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY -1 TO -2C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. TYPICALLY AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVING SFC
WATER TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 7-9C...THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY. IN FACT...THE LAKE HAS
BEHAVED MOSTLY AS STABILIZING INFLUENCE. ONE BAND WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES DID STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WARMER WATER TO THE S AND E OF
THE KEWEENAW. THIS AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
IN ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. THESE SPRINKLES ARE DRIFTING SE THRU DELTA
AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WERE AT A MINIMUM
EARLIER TODAY...850MB THERMAL TROF COMBINED WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGAN.

TONIGHT...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL. WHILE CU/STRATOCU IS
STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE...THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORTWAVE TO THE W IS GENERATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL STREAM OVER THE FCST AREA
AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING BEING REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING. OTHER FACTOR WILL BE DEPARTURE OF HIGH
PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
THE EXITING HIGH AND APPROACHING SFC TROF... THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MIXING. THAT SAID...THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 45-55PCT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
AREA WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND TO EVEN THE
LOWER 30S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SO...FCST WILL SHOW PATCHY
FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVY. EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS TO RE-EXAMINE THE NEED
FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE BY LATE EVENING.

ON SUN...SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING PASSING JUST N OF THE AREA...ALONG AND N OF
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH MAINLY CHC POPS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN REACHING THE E MID TO LATE AFTN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
BRANCH IS BY FAR STRONGER AND MORE INFLUENTIAL ON THE WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING CENTERED OVER NUNAVUT CANADA TO THE
NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST
OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND REST OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA SHOULD
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER ALASKA RE-ORIENTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE SLIGHTLY
OPENING UP. MAY SEE A WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND AS
RIDGING...OR AT LEAST LESS TROUGHING...AFFECTS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN THE NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY CHANCES WOULD BE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
OUT OF EASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WITH LOWER
H7 TEMPS AND A POCKET OF H85-H7 RH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ISOLD SHRA VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZES OVER EASTERN CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES.
LI/S ARE A BIT BLO 0C BUT THINK THAT WITH FROPA WITHIN PREVIOUS 12
HR...THERE WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDER.

SFC RIDGE SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. COULD BE HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PWATS
ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL SO IT COULD BE CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AND THERE IS LIMITED ONSHORE
COMPONENT ANYWHERE IN CWA...SEEMS THAT ALL INTERIOR WOULD BE AT RISK
FOR THE COLD TEMPS/FROST. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LAKES IS
BTWN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND H85 TEMPS UP TO 4-6C SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S
WHICH IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INCREASING H8-H6 MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE HELD BACK AS STRONGER FORCING FOR LIFT REMAINS
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING
INTO THE PERSISTENT TROUGH. INTO WEDNESDAY...COULD BE A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING BENEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SUB H85 IT REMAINS COOL
AND MOIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
IN THE AFTN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE
AND IT WILL ESPECIALLY FEEL THAT WAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND EAST WIND.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 60 OVER THE SCNTRL.

AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS ALSO MOVES EAST...CONFLUENT
FLOW RESULTS IN SFC RIDGE MOVING FROM CNTRL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD HOLD OVER UPPER LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND SFC FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. LATEST GFS WHICH HAD
BEEN VERY AGRESSIVE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BRINGING QPF TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NOW LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SLOWER 00Z
ECMWF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
BRINGING QPF ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS WHERE IT
HAD BEEN INSISTENT ON A RIDGE...IT HAS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AND WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
MODELS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL
THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...READINGS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MAY TRY TO PUSH TO AROUND NORMAL. WILL ALL DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA. COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS IN THE VCNTY AND
PWATS ARE WELL BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. IF SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
EITHER NIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE AROUND FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE
FROST. ATTM...BEST CHANCE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ON SUN...AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING S TO SW WINDS
TONIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE LOWER OBS PLATFORMS SHOULDN`T SEE WINDS
GREATER THAN THE 10-20KT RANGE...HIGH OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO MOSTLY 10-20KT
SUN NIGHT THRU MON. THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AGAIN LATE
MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE
LATER WED THRU THU HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 132315
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
715 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI LAST NIGHT NOW MOVING THRU
SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED...ONE OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE WAVES WILL BRING THE NEXT PCPN CHC TO UPPER MI
ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY -1 TO -2C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. TYPICALLY AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVING SFC
WATER TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 7-9C...THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY. IN FACT...THE LAKE HAS
BEHAVED MOSTLY AS STABILIZING INFLUENCE. ONE BAND WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES DID STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WARMER WATER TO THE S AND E OF
THE KEWEENAW. THIS AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
IN ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. THESE SPRINKLES ARE DRIFTING SE THRU DELTA
AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WERE AT A MINIMUM
EARLIER TODAY...850MB THERMAL TROF COMBINED WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGAN.

TONIGHT...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL. WHILE CU/STRATOCU IS
STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE...THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORTWAVE TO THE W IS GENERATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL STREAM OVER THE FCST AREA
AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING BEING REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING. OTHER FACTOR WILL BE DEPARTURE OF HIGH
PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
THE EXITING HIGH AND APPROACHING SFC TROF... THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MIXING. THAT SAID...THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 45-55PCT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
AREA WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND TO EVEN THE
LOWER 30S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SO...FCST WILL SHOW PATCHY
FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVY. EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS TO RE-EXAMINE THE NEED
FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE BY LATE EVENING.

ON SUN...SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING PASSING JUST N OF THE AREA...ALONG AND N OF
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH MAINLY CHC POPS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN REACHING THE E MID TO LATE AFTN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
BRANCH IS BY FAR STRONGER AND MORE INFLUENTIAL ON THE WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING CENTERED OVER NUNAVUT CANADA TO THE
NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST
OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND REST OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA SHOULD
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER ALASKA RE-ORIENTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE SLIGHTLY
OPENING UP. MAY SEE A WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND AS
RIDGING...OR AT LEAST LESS TROUGHING...AFFECTS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN THE NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY CHANCES WOULD BE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
OUT OF EASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WITH LOWER
H7 TEMPS AND A POCKET OF H85-H7 RH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ISOLD SHRA VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZES OVER EASTERN CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES.
LI/S ARE A BIT BLO 0C BUT THINK THAT WITH FROPA WITHIN PREVIOUS 12
HR...THERE WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDER.

SFC RIDGE SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. COULD BE HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PWATS
ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL SO IT COULD BE CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AND THERE IS LIMITED ONSHORE
COMPONENT ANYWHERE IN CWA...SEEMS THAT ALL INTERIOR WOULD BE AT RISK
FOR THE COLD TEMPS/FROST. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LAKES IS
BTWN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND H85 TEMPS UP TO 4-6C SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S
WHICH IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INCREASING H8-H6 MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE HELD BACK AS STRONGER FORCING FOR LIFT REMAINS
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING
INTO THE PERSISTENT TROUGH. INTO WEDNESDAY...COULD BE A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING BENEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SUB H85 IT REMAINS COOL
AND MOIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
IN THE AFTN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE
AND IT WILL ESPECIALLY FEEL THAT WAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND EAST WIND.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 60 OVER THE SCNTRL.

AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS ALSO MOVES EAST...CONFLUENT
FLOW RESULTS IN SFC RIDGE MOVING FROM CNTRL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD HOLD OVER UPPER LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND SFC FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. LATEST GFS WHICH HAD
BEEN VERY AGRESSIVE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BRINGING QPF TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NOW LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SLOWER 00Z
ECMWF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
BRINGING QPF ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS WHERE IT
HAD BEEN INSISTENT ON A RIDGE...IT HAS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AND WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
MODELS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL
THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...READINGS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MAY TRY TO PUSH TO AROUND NORMAL. WILL ALL DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA. COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS IN THE VCNTY AND
PWATS ARE WELL BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. IF SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
EITHER NIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE AROUND FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE
FROST. ATTM...BEST CHANCE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ON SUN...AN APPROACHING LOW PRES
TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING S TO SW WINDS
TONIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE LOWER OBS PLATFORMS SHOULDN`T SEE WINDS
GREATER THAN THE 10-20KT RANGE...HIGH OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO MOSTLY 10-20KT
SUN NIGHT THRU MON. THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AGAIN LATE
MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE
LATER WED THRU THU HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 132010
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI LAST NIGHT NOW MOVING THRU
SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED...ONE OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE WAVES WILL BRING THE NEXT PCPN CHC TO UPPER MI
ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY -1 TO -2C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. TYPICALLY AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVING SFC
WATER TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 7-9C...THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY. IN FACT...THE LAKE HAS
BEHAVED MOSTLY AS STABILIZING INFLUENCE. ONE BAND WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES DID STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WARMER WATER TO THE S AND E OF
THE KEWEENAW. THIS AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
IN ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. THESE SPRINKLES ARE DRIFTING SE THRU DELTA
AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WERE AT A MINIMUM
EARLIER TODAY...850MB THERMAL TROF COMBINED WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGAN.

TONIGHT...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL. WHILE CU/STRATOCU IS
STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE...THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORTWAVE TO THE W IS GENERATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL STREAM OVER THE FCST AREA
AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING BEING REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING. OTHER FACTOR WILL BE DEPARTURE OF HIGH
PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
THE EXITING HIGH AND APPROACHING SFC TROF... THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MIXING. THAT SAID...THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 45-55PCT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
AREA WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND TO EVEN THE
LOWER 30S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SO...FCST WILL SHOW PATCHY
FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVY. EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS TO RE-EXAMINE THE NEED
FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE BY LATE EVENING.

ON SUN...SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING PASSING JUST N OF THE AREA...ALONG AND N OF
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH MAINLY CHC POPS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN REACHING THE E MID TO LATE AFTN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
BRANCH IS BY FAR STRONGER AND MORE INFLUENTIAL ON THE WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING CENTERED OVER NUNAVUT CANADA TO THE
NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST
OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND REST OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA SHOULD
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER ALASKA RE-ORIENTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE SLIGHTLY
OPENING UP. MAY SEE A WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND AS
RIDGING...OR AT LEAST LESS TROUGHING...AFFECTS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN THE NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY CHANCES WOULD BE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
OUT OF EASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WITH LOWER
H7 TEMPS AND A POCKET OF H85-H7 RH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ISOLD SHRA VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZES OVER EASTERN CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES.
LI/S ARE A BIT BLO 0C BUT THINK THAT WITH FROPA WITHIN PREVIOUS 12
HR...THERE WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDER.

SFC RIDGE SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. COULD BE HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PWATS
ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL SO IT COULD BE CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AND THERE IS LIMITED ONSHORE
COMPONENT ANYWHERE IN CWA...SEEMS THAT ALL INTERIOR WOULD BE AT RISK
FOR THE COLD TEMPS/FROST. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LAKES IS
BTWN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND H85 TEMPS UP TO 4-6C SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S
WHICH IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INCREASING H8-H6 MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE HELD BACK AS STRONGER FORCING FOR LIFT REMAINS
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING
INTO THE PERSISTENT TROUGH. INTO WEDNESDAY...COULD BE A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING BENEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SUB H85 IT REMAINS COOL
AND MOIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
IN THE AFTN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE
AND IT WILL ESPECIALLY FEEL THAT WAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND EAST WIND.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 60 OVER THE SCNTRL.

AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS ALSO MOVES EAST...CONFLUENT
FLOW RESULTS IN SFC RIDGE MOVING FROM CNTRL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD HOLD OVER UPPER LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND SFC FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. LATEST GFS WHICH HAD
BEEN VERY AGRESSIVE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BRINGING QPF TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NOW LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SLOWER 00Z
ECMWF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
BRINGING QPF ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS WHERE IT
HAD BEEN INSISTENT ON A RIDGE...IT HAS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AND WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
MODELS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL
THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...READINGS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MAY TRY TO PUSH TO AROUND NORMAL. WILL ALL DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA. COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS IN THE VCNTY AND
PWATS ARE WELL BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. IF SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
EITHER NIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE AROUND FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE
FROST. ATTM...BEST CHANCE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR
CONCERNS. A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE POPPED UP IN THE KSAW
VCNTY SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ON SUN...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY
AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITION TO FALL BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING S TO SW WINDS
TONIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE LOWER OBS PLATFORMS SHOULDN`T SEE WINDS
GREATER THAN THE 10-20KT RANGE...HIGH OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO MOSTLY 10-20KT
SUN NIGHT THRU MON. THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AGAIN LATE
MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE
LATER WED THRU THU HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 132010
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPPER MI LAST NIGHT NOW MOVING THRU
SRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE
NOTED...ONE OVER ND/SRN MANITOBA AND THE OTHER OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN. THESE WAVES WILL BRING THE NEXT PCPN CHC TO UPPER MI
ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM...850MB TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY -1 TO -2C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. TYPICALLY AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
PCPN. HOWEVER...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAVING SFC
WATER TEMPS PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 7-9C...THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY. IN FACT...THE LAKE HAS
BEHAVED MOSTLY AS STABILIZING INFLUENCE. ONE BAND WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES DID STREAM INTO ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING
DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WARMER WATER TO THE S AND E OF
THE KEWEENAW. THIS AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES DEVELOPING
IN ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. THESE SPRINKLES ARE DRIFTING SE THRU DELTA
AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WERE AT A MINIMUM
EARLIER TODAY...850MB THERMAL TROF COMBINED WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE LAKE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING BEGAN.

TONIGHT...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS FROST POTENTIAL. WHILE CU/STRATOCU IS
STILL QUITE EXTENSIVE...THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORTWAVE TO THE W IS GENERATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL STREAM OVER THE FCST AREA
AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. DISSIPATING STRATOCU THIS
EVENING BEING REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING. OTHER FACTOR WILL BE DEPARTURE OF HIGH
PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN
THE EXITING HIGH AND APPROACHING SFC TROF... THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MIXING. THAT SAID...THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 45-55PCT OF NORMAL) AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
AREA WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND TO EVEN THE
LOWER 30S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SO...FCST WILL SHOW PATCHY
FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST ADVY. EVENING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS TO RE-EXAMINE THE NEED
FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE BY LATE EVENING.

ON SUN...SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST
MOISTURE/FORCING PASSING JUST N OF THE AREA...ALONG AND N OF
PROJECTED VORT TRACK. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FCST WITH MAINLY CHC POPS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN REACHING THE E MID TO LATE AFTN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
BRANCH IS BY FAR STRONGER AND MORE INFLUENTIAL ON THE WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING CENTERED OVER NUNAVUT CANADA TO THE
NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST
OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND REST OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA SHOULD
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER ALASKA RE-ORIENTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE SLIGHTLY
OPENING UP. MAY SEE A WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND AS
RIDGING...OR AT LEAST LESS TROUGHING...AFFECTS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN THE NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY CHANCES WOULD BE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
OUT OF EASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WITH LOWER
H7 TEMPS AND A POCKET OF H85-H7 RH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ISOLD SHRA VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZES OVER EASTERN CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES.
LI/S ARE A BIT BLO 0C BUT THINK THAT WITH FROPA WITHIN PREVIOUS 12
HR...THERE WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDER.

SFC RIDGE SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. COULD BE HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PWATS
ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL SO IT COULD BE CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AND THERE IS LIMITED ONSHORE
COMPONENT ANYWHERE IN CWA...SEEMS THAT ALL INTERIOR WOULD BE AT RISK
FOR THE COLD TEMPS/FROST. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LAKES IS
BTWN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND H85 TEMPS UP TO 4-6C SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S
WHICH IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INCREASING H8-H6 MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE HELD BACK AS STRONGER FORCING FOR LIFT REMAINS
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING
INTO THE PERSISTENT TROUGH. INTO WEDNESDAY...COULD BE A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING BENEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SUB H85 IT REMAINS COOL
AND MOIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
IN THE AFTN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE
AND IT WILL ESPECIALLY FEEL THAT WAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND EAST WIND.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 60 OVER THE SCNTRL.

AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS ALSO MOVES EAST...CONFLUENT
FLOW RESULTS IN SFC RIDGE MOVING FROM CNTRL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD HOLD OVER UPPER LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND SFC FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. LATEST GFS WHICH HAD
BEEN VERY AGRESSIVE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BRINGING QPF TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NOW LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SLOWER 00Z
ECMWF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
BRINGING QPF ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS WHERE IT
HAD BEEN INSISTENT ON A RIDGE...IT HAS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AND WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
MODELS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL
THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...READINGS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MAY TRY TO PUSH TO AROUND NORMAL. WILL ALL DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA. COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS IN THE VCNTY AND
PWATS ARE WELL BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. IF SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
EITHER NIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE AROUND FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE
FROST. ATTM...BEST CHANCE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR
CONCERNS. A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE POPPED UP IN THE KSAW
VCNTY SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ON SUN...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY
AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITION TO FALL BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING S TO SW WINDS
TONIGHT INTO SUN. WHILE LOWER OBS PLATFORMS SHOULDN`T SEE WINDS
GREATER THAN THE 10-20KT RANGE...HIGH OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY
SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT. WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO MOSTLY 10-20KT
SUN NIGHT THRU MON. THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AGAIN LATE
MON NIGHT THRU EARLY WED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUE. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE THE RULE
LATER WED THRU THU HAS HIGH PRES MOVE SE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TOWARD
THE LOWER LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 131952
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BENEATH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A WEAK TROUGH INTO
THE ERN CWA BETWEEN A 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
1027MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS
THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE W. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING OF PRECIP
FROM W TO E THIS MORNING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BY NOON TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER LAND THIS DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING NRN
MN BY 12Z SUN. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE SW FLOW OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING PRECIP JUST E OF THE CWA SO
DID NOT INCLUDE POPS. MAY AGAIN SEE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND ALSO THE INTERIOR E TONIGHT...WITH FROST
BEING POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT NORTHERN
BRANCH IS BY FAR STRONGER AND MORE INFLUENTIAL ON THE WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING CENTERED OVER NUNAVUT CANADA TO THE
NORTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST
OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND REST OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THIS WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA SHOULD
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER ALASKA RE-ORIENTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE SLIGHTLY
OPENING UP. MAY SEE A WARM UP LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND AS
RIDGING...OR AT LEAST LESS TROUGHING...AFFECTS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES. PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN THE NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY CHANCES WOULD BE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
OUT OF EASTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WITH LOWER
H7 TEMPS AND A POCKET OF H85-H7 RH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ISOLD SHRA VCNTY OF LAKE BREEZES OVER EASTERN CWA ON
MONDAY AFTN. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES.
LI/S ARE A BIT BLO 0C BUT THINK THAT WITH FROPA WITHIN PREVIOUS 12
HR...THERE WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA SO DID NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDER.

SFC RIDGE SETTLES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. COULD BE HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT PWATS
ARE BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL SO IT COULD BE CHILLY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AND THERE IS LIMITED ONSHORE
COMPONENT ANYWHERE IN CWA...SEEMS THAT ALL INTERIOR WOULD BE AT RISK
FOR THE COLD TEMPS/FROST. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LAKES IS
BTWN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND H85 TEMPS UP TO 4-6C SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S
WHICH IS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. FRONT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH OVER
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF
INCREASING H8-H6 MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE HELD BACK AS STRONGER FORCING FOR LIFT REMAINS
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING
INTO THE PERSISTENT TROUGH. INTO WEDNESDAY...COULD BE A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING BENEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SUB H85 IT REMAINS COOL
AND MOIST WITH EASTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
IN THE AFTN AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE
AND IT WILL ESPECIALLY FEEL THAT WAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND EAST WIND.
TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND NEAR 60 OVER THE SCNTRL.

AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS ALSO MOVES EAST...CONFLUENT
FLOW RESULTS IN SFC RIDGE MOVING FROM CNTRL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD HOLD OVER UPPER LAKES THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
CNTRL PLAINS AND SFC FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD. LATEST GFS WHICH HAD
BEEN VERY AGRESSIVE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BRINGING QPF TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NOW LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SLOWER 00Z
ECMWF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
BRINGING QPF ACROSS ALL OF UPR MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY AFTN AS WHERE IT
HAD BEEN INSISTENT ON A RIDGE...IT HAS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LACKING AND WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
MODELS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL
THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...READINGS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MAY TRY TO PUSH TO AROUND NORMAL. WILL ALL DEPEND ON
EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA. COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS IN THE VCNTY AND
PWATS ARE WELL BLO 50 PCT OF NORMAL. IF SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
EITHER NIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE AROUND FREEZING AND THERE WOULD BE
FROST. ATTM...BEST CHANCE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR
CONCERNS. A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE POPPED UP IN THE KSAW
VCNTY SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ON SUN...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY
AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITION TO FALL BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WINDS MAINLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS









000
FXUS63 KMQT 131738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BENEATH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A WEAK TROUGH INTO
THE ERN CWA BETWEEN A 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
1027MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS
THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE W. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING OF PRECIP
FROM W TO E THIS MORNING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BY NOON TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER LAND THIS DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING NRN
MN BY 12Z SUN. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE SW FLOW OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING PRECIP JUST E OF THE CWA SO
DID NOT INCLUDE POPS. MAY AGAIN SEE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND ALSO THE INTERIOR E TONIGHT...WITH FROST
BEING POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

DURING THE LONG TERM...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN NAMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULTING NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A GENERALLY QUIET/COOL PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MOST IF NOT ALL DAYS.
MODELS SHOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFYING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...
ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. NOT MUCH PCPN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND
WHAT DOES OCCUR WL BE TIED TO 2 COLD FROPAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARMING IS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE
DEAMPLIFYING FLOW...ANOTHER SHOT AT PCPN IS POSSIBLE FRI.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS STILL
INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED VORT TRACK. CONSENSUS OF
MODELS INDICATE SCT SHRA WILL SPREAD INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
MODEL TREND PCPN CHCS WILL BE ENDING QUICKER W TO E SUN NIGHT.

MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL COUNITES SHRA ON
MONDAY AS THERMAL TROF LINGERS OVERHEAD AND NAM BUFR SNDGS SHOW
SFC-750 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C.

TUE-WED...GFS/UKMET/NAM/GEM-NH SOLNS ARE STILL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH HELPS DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MI
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE DELAYS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHICH IN TURN
DRIVES COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. DESPITE
FRONTAL TIMING DIFFERENCES MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG FRONT STAYING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FORTUNATELY
PCPN CHCS ARE VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHCS MENTIONED FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUE AND THEN COOL
DOWN INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON WED.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. MODELS UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING OF NRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTH OF ASSOC DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK
IN DEAMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME. GFS SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS STRONG RDGG AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
FRI. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF GFS AND DRY LOOK OF ECMWF HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR MOST OF THE CWA. KEPT IN CHC POPS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO DEVELOPING WAA REGIME
AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR
CONCERNS. A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE POPPED UP IN THE KSAW
VCNTY SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ON SUN...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY
AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITION TO FALL BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WINDS MAINLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 131738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BENEATH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A WEAK TROUGH INTO
THE ERN CWA BETWEEN A 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
1027MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS
THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE W. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING OF PRECIP
FROM W TO E THIS MORNING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BY NOON TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER LAND THIS DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING NRN
MN BY 12Z SUN. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE SW FLOW OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING PRECIP JUST E OF THE CWA SO
DID NOT INCLUDE POPS. MAY AGAIN SEE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND ALSO THE INTERIOR E TONIGHT...WITH FROST
BEING POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

DURING THE LONG TERM...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN NAMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULTING NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A GENERALLY QUIET/COOL PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MOST IF NOT ALL DAYS.
MODELS SHOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFYING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...
ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. NOT MUCH PCPN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND
WHAT DOES OCCUR WL BE TIED TO 2 COLD FROPAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARMING IS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE
DEAMPLIFYING FLOW...ANOTHER SHOT AT PCPN IS POSSIBLE FRI.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS STILL
INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED VORT TRACK. CONSENSUS OF
MODELS INDICATE SCT SHRA WILL SPREAD INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
MODEL TREND PCPN CHCS WILL BE ENDING QUICKER W TO E SUN NIGHT.

MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL COUNITES SHRA ON
MONDAY AS THERMAL TROF LINGERS OVERHEAD AND NAM BUFR SNDGS SHOW
SFC-750 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C.

TUE-WED...GFS/UKMET/NAM/GEM-NH SOLNS ARE STILL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH HELPS DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MI
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE DELAYS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHICH IN TURN
DRIVES COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. DESPITE
FRONTAL TIMING DIFFERENCES MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG FRONT STAYING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FORTUNATELY
PCPN CHCS ARE VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHCS MENTIONED FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUE AND THEN COOL
DOWN INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON WED.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. MODELS UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING OF NRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTH OF ASSOC DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK
IN DEAMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME. GFS SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS STRONG RDGG AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
FRI. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF GFS AND DRY LOOK OF ECMWF HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR MOST OF THE CWA. KEPT IN CHC POPS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO DEVELOPING WAA REGIME
AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR
CONCERNS. A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE POPPED UP IN THE KSAW
VCNTY SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ON SUN...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY
AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITION TO FALL BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WINDS MAINLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 131130
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BENEATH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A WEAK TROUGH INTO
THE ERN CWA BETWEEN A 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
1027MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS
THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE W. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING OF PRECIP
FROM W TO E THIS MORNING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BY NOON TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER LAND THIS DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING NRN
MN BY 12Z SUN. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE SW FLOW OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING PRECIP JUST E OF THE CWA SO
DID NOT INCLUDE POPS. MAY AGAIN SEE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND ALSO THE INTERIOR E TONIGHT...WITH FROST
BEING POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

DURING THE LONG TERM...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN NAMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULTING NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A GENERALLY QUIET/COOL PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MOST IF NOT ALL DAYS.
MODELS SHOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFYING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...
ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. NOT MUCH PCPN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND
WHAT DOES OCCUR WL BE TIED TO 2 COLD FROPAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARMING IS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE
DEAMPLIFYING FLOW...ANOTHER SHOT AT PCPN IS POSSIBLE FRI.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS STILL
INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED VORT TRACK. CONSENSUS OF
MODELS INDICATE SCT SHRA WILL SPREAD INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
MODEL TREND PCPN CHCS WILL BE ENDING QUICKER W TO E SUN NIGHT.

MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL COUNITES SHRA ON
MONDAY AS THERMAL TROF LINGERS OVERHEAD AND NAM BUFR SNDGS SHOW
SFC-750 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C.

TUE-WED...GFS/UKMET/NAM/GEM-NH SOLNS ARE STILL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH HELPS DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MI
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE DELAYS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHICH IN TURN
DRIVES COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. DESPITE
FRONTAL TIMING DIFFERENCES MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG FRONT STAYING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FORTUNATELY
PCPN CHCS ARE VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHCS MENTIONED FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUE AND THEN COOL
DOWN INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON WED.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. MODELS UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING OF NRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTH OF ASSOC DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK
IN DEAMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME. GFS SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS STRONG RDGG AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
FRI. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF GFS AND DRY LOOK OF ECMWF HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR MOST OF THE CWA. KEPT IN CHC POPS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO DEVELOPING WAA REGIME
AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WINDS MAINLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-010-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







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