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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CIGS AROUND 1KFT OR EVEN HIGHER IFR RANGE/ WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MOISTURE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT OR AT LEAST EXPECT THE CIGS
TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE AT KCMX DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO AND AN UNFAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. CLEARING PROBABLY DOES NOT ARRIVE AT
KIWD AND KSAW UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTN AS WINDS STAY
NORTHERLY. IWD LIKELY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGEST AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A LONGER FETCH OF ADDITIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 172346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL END OVERNIGHT BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CIGS AROUND 1KFT OR EVEN HIGHER IFR RANGE/ WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. MOISTURE NOT TOO EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
THOUGH...SO EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT OR AT LEAST EXPECT THE CIGS
TO LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE AT KCMX DUE TO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR OVER ONTARIO AND AN UNFAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE LIFTING. CLEARING PROBABLY DOES NOT ARRIVE AT
KIWD AND KSAW UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTN AS WINDS STAY
NORTHERLY. IWD LIKELY WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGEST AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
A LONGER FETCH OF ADDITIONAL LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...TITUS









000
FXUS63 KMQT 172055
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISRUPTIVE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER UPPER
MI THURSDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY ERODE
CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A 1-2KFT INVERSION. VEERING SFC WINDS MAY BRING
LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS LOOK TO
FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID TEENS FOR
SHORELINE LOCATIONS. WENT BELOW NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE. FREEZING FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE UNDER THE
SHALLOW INVERSION.

AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF ON
FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH LITTLE FORCING AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS POINT. A SECONDARY
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
REINFORCE THE DECAYING LEAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FGEN COMBINED WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
SOME DIFFERENCE ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PHASING OF THE TROUGHS
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WILL
KEEP THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY GETS INFUSED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AS A THIRD...QUICK-MOVING...SHORTWAVE TRACKS ESE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NW. HOW THIS TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE EXISTING TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS RATHER UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
CONGLOMERATION OF THE TROUGHS WILL INDUCE A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE
REGION BY CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A
LOW AS DEEP AS 960MB OVER LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOW LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION FOR SOME TIME AS
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP PATTERNS EVOLVE. ALL
THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ENERGY FROM THE FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK ROUND OF MODERATE WET SNOW DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
BEFORE THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LAG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...REDUCING LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. EITHER WAY...A
1030MB HIGH PUSHING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG N/NNW WINDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LAKE
EFFECT KICKING IN AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE POOR FOR TRAVEL CHRISTMAS DAY.

SIMPLY PUT...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A DRAWN-OUT MESS FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS. STAYED TUNED...AS PLENTY OF
FORECAST CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 172039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 172039
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IS NOW OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AS A 500MB HIGH
SITS OVER NRN MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE E WHILE A 1032MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE
MANITOBA WITH RIDGES EXTENDING TO JAMES BAY AND TO THE GULF COAST OF
LA. 850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -10C...SO THE FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH
IS NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING /AND DIMINISHING/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HAVE
THE SNOW DIMINISHING PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER NCENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI AFTER
06Z THU. EXPECT MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER NCENTRAL AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI
/FROM IWD TO ONTONAGON AND WEST/...LEAVING MORE INLAND AREAS OF ERN
AND WRN UPPER MI SEEING SOME SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS OR EVEN GOING
COMPLETELY CLEAR /MAINLY FAR E AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/ BY LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE DROPPED LOW TEMPS OVER THE LESS CLOUDY AREAS INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS.

FOR THU...EXPECT CLOUDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...PULLING THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
25KTS ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS
A 30.3 INCH HIGH FROM CENTRAL NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN
20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW 20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS









000
FXUS63 KMQT 171744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF









000
FXUS63 KMQT 171744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1244 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE SNOW WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...AS WINDS TURN TO THE
NE TONIGHT...DRY AIR LOOKS TO MOVE OVER CMX...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT
FAVOR LOW CONDITIONS WITH A NE WIND. AT SAW AND IWD...EXPECT
INVERSION TO LOWER THIS EVENING...BRINGING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THU MORNING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SOMETIME ON THU. DO EXPECT IWD TO KEEP CLOUDS
LONGER AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THAT SITE. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 171147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM
A LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT BRIEFLY PICKS UP. THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT
KIWD/KSAW. EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS...MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW AN INCREASING INVERSION FROM A HIGH
ARRIVING FROM MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE LEANED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD/KSAW DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 171147
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
647 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN FROM
A LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT BRIEFLY PICKS UP. THEN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PULLS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AT KCMX AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT
KIWD/KSAW. EVEN AS THE SNOW ENDS...MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED BELOW AN INCREASING INVERSION FROM A HIGH
ARRIVING FROM MINNESOTA. THUS...HAVE LEANED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD/KSAW DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 171008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING INTO THE NRN LAKES. EVEN WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS...850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -6C WILL PROVIDE LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES
POTENTIAL. LAKE MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE WEST HALF INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THIN OUT LATE WITH LIMITED
MIXING...INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW AND CONTINUED 925 MB NE FLOW DRY
ADVECTION.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO
0.15 INCH WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MIN TEMPS DOWN
TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR READING AROUND 3F TO 8F
INLAND AND TEENS CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FRI AND SAT...AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE ERN
LAKES...SRLY WINDS WILL BRING A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MAX READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S FRI WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 30 SAT. AFTER SOME SUN ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK
TOWARD UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT...PER NAM/GFS 925-700 MB RH PROGS.
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ANY VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES
AND HOW ANY SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT THAT WOULD SUPPORT PCPN INTO
UPPER MI IS UNCERTAIN. PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MON INTO TUE
AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW OR TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY TUE...SINCE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH...ONLY SNOW WAS MENTIONED FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 170841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ONE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE OTHER ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. MOIST AIR IS ROTATING/PIVOTING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE...AS EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO AND THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE SNOW OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. STILL SEEING
SOME STRONGER BANDS OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. AND STRETCHING FORM SOUTHERN HOUGHTON THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY INTO DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES.
THAT BAND IN IRON/DICKINSON/MENOMINEE COUNTIES HAS LIKELY BEEN
PRODUCING 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAST HOUR. OVER
THE WEST...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAS LIKELY BEEN PROVIDING SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THOSE AREAS AND AIDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SNOW THAN SHOWN WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW ON RADAR. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST HAS SEEN
SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...IRONWOOD DID GET DRY SLOTTED LAST EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH LIMITED THE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. LOOKING AT WEBCAMS TOWARDS WAKEFIELD...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT IT IS SNOWING OVER PARTS OF GOGEBIC COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED
HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY DROP THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT QUICK
DEPARTURE WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING AND PULL THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND LARGELY BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST WILL BE THE AREAS SUPPORTED BY THE
NORTHERLY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW...BUT EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THAT IS DUE TO THE
DRY AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHER ONTARIO QUICKLY DROPPING
OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 00Z THURSDAY. THAT
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES (850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -14C AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO -9C AT 00Z
THURSDAY) TO LIMIT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL. THE 00Z RUNS
APPEAR TO BE EVEN FASTER THAN THE TREND THEY SHOWED 24 HOURS
AGO...SO WILL REALLY SHOW A QUICK DIMINISHMENT TO THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LINGER THE
LONGEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WEST (LATE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT) WHERE THERE IS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ANOTHER 0.5-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL AWAY FROM ANY LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
WHERE THE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS...COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 5
INCHES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FOR THE HEADLINES...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. WILL TRIM THE END TIME
OF THE KEWEENAW ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER TO SHOW THE
DIMINISHING TREND WITH THE DRY AIR AND WARMING. THE WARNINGS MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WAY...WITH THE
MAIN SNOW ALREADY HAVING OCCURRED. BUT...SINCE WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS
STILL SNOW COVERED AND ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED...WILL LEAVE
THEM IN PLACE TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. THEN THE DAY SHIFT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CANCEL THEM EARLY...AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. FINALLY...WILL REISSUE THE SPS FOR IRON/DICKINSON AND
ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE STRONGER SNOW BAND THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES AND THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH THAT DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT...EXPECT A GENERALLY
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
INDICATION OF A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH (AROUND 900MB).
THESE POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST. THINK THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
AND ALSO ALONG THE HIGHER GOGEBIC RANGE. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS...IT WILL TRY TO STRETCH OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND WILL
HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WITH THAT
EXPECTATION...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE TEENS OR AROUND 20 AND CLOSER
TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THINGS CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS WOULD NEED TO
BE DROPPED A GOOD 10 DEGREES (INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)
THAN THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY...PULLING
THE 30.0 INCH TROUGH THAT IS STRETCHING WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH IT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25KTS ALONG THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A 30.3 INCH HIGH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...LEADING TO WINDS LESS THAN 20KTS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP (BUT STILL BE BELOW
20KTS) AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 170536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1236 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 170536
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1236 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

IWD...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LVL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE IN MN HAS LIMITED SN INTENSITY...EXPECT SOME LK ENHANCED
SN/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG AS THE DEEPER MSTR
SHIFTS TO THE S AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSLOPE N WIND. BUT AS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY IN
THE MRNG AND DRIER LLVL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN TO VFR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD.

CMX...EXPECT PERIODS OF LK ENHANCED SN/IFR VSBYS TO PERSIST INTO THE
MRNG. AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPR DISTURBANCE/ACCOMANYING DYNAMIC FORCING
DEPART BY LATE MRNG...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LIKELY IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR/NEGLIGIBLE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.

SAW...EXPECT SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MRNG
WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND AND BRING PREDOMINANT IFR VSBYS FOR A TIME
UNTIL THE AFTN...WHEN THE EXIT OF THE SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC
FORCING CAUSES THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO
MVFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL BRING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
     005>007-085.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 162346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT LK ENHANCED SN TO FALL HEAVIEST THIS EVNG INTO THE EARLY
OVERNGT AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS ESEWD THRU WI JUST TO THE S OF UPR
MI. THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN CONCERT
WITH LK EFFECT PROCESSES WL RESULT IN STEADY SN/IFR VSBYS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THIS
SITE RELATIVE TO DEEPER MSTR/ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF. IWD WL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR AND MAY SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WEAKENS ON WED...THE SN WL DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-005-
     006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 162346
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
646 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

EXPECT LK ENHANCED SN TO FALL HEAVIEST THIS EVNG INTO THE EARLY
OVERNGT AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS ESEWD THRU WI JUST TO THE S OF UPR
MI. THE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN CONCERT
WITH LK EFFECT PROCESSES WL RESULT IN STEADY SN/IFR VSBYS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THIS
SITE RELATIVE TO DEEPER MSTR/ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF. IWD WL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MSTR AND MAY SEE IMPROVED CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY AND THE DYNAMIC FORCING
WEAKENS ON WED...THE SN WL DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-005-
     006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 162245
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
545 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-005-
     006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 162245
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
545 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR INDICATES A MODERATE TO HEAVY SN BAND HAS SET
UP FROM NEAR HOUGHTON INTO WESTERN BARAGA COUNTY UNDER COOLING CLD
TOP TEMPS SHOWN ON IR STLT IMAGERY. THE HIER RES NAMDNG5 MODEL HINTS
THIS AREA WL SEE SOME HEAVIER SN THRU THIS EVNG AS AREA OF DPVA/DEEP
LYR QVECTOR CNVGC SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON CYC SIDE OF CUTOFF H5 LO
OVER NRN MN MOVING TOWARD NW WI. REPORTS AS EARLY AS MID AFTN
INDICATED 5 INCHES OF SN HAD FALLEN FM SOUTH RANGE TO CALUMET IN
HOUGHTON COUNTY. WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING ENUF SN BY THE EARLY
MRNG HRS ON WED TO REACH THE NECESSARY 10 INCHES IN 24 HRS FOR A
WARNING SN FALL...OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WX ADVY TO A WARNING
FOR ALL OF HOUGHTON COUNTY AND BARAGA COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-005-
     006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002>004-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 162048
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-
     003>006-084-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 162048
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TWO SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITH TWO BRANCHES ARE AFFECTING THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAVING A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MN. THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE BECOMES THE DOMINANT ONE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NAM
SHOWING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MN THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEADING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. 500 MB
RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE U.P. BY WED EVENING.

NAM AND GFS SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATE WED AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT NAM SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT FOR ERY...ISQ
AND ESC AND THE RAIN THAT IS OCCURRING AT EACH OF THOSE PLACES WILL
COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. IT HAS
ALREADY SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW IN ESC AND MUNISING AND WETMORE AND
THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS REPORT A RAIN GOING OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY WITH
NO MENTION OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
TRANSITION IN THIS FORECAST. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT
OF HAND EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST AND UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR GOGEBIC
AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. WE WERE GETTING UP ON THE AMOUNTS WITH 5
INCHES IN WAKEFIELD SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN AND THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR IWD...SO HAD NO
PROBLEM UPGRADING THIS TO A WARNING THERE WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
HELPING TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL THERE. OTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES LOOKED GOOD AND ISSUED ONE FOR LUCE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SNOW GETS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER
OR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. NO GALES SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-
     003>006-084-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 162012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-
     003>006-084-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 162012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

BY 00Z THURSDAY THE MAIN 500MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER BY...WITH
THE TROUGH LINGERING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. A SIZABLE RIDGE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA.

850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE AND FAVORABLE NNE WINDS
WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS N
CENTRAL UPPER MI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO BE STUCK AT OR BELOW 900MB. THE DGZ IS STILL
WAY UP AROUND 600MB...IN CLEAR AIR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE
NW BEFORE SLOWLY EXITING TO SE CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SATURDAY. THE 500MB HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS N ONTARIO ON THURSDAY AND
CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE E SIDE OF THE HIGH A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AT 18Z
THURSDAY TO FAR E UPPER MI OR FAR S ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LITTLE MORE THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THE 16/00Z AND
12Z ECMWF WERE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING IT
ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 850MB TEMPS WILL LINGER
AROUND -6 TO -8C THROUGH SUNDAY...SO EXPECT SO HUGE SWINGS
TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A ELONGATED AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
THROUGH THE S PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL EDGE TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO START OUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE SEVERAL SMALL
DISTURBANCES WILL NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS
STILL ANTICIPATED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE THE NEXT SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N PLAINS MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS ACROSS MN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE LOW EXPECT WAA PRECIP. A CHANCE OF RAIN COULD CREEP INTO THE
E THIRD OF THE U.P. /MAINLY STAY ACROSS LAKE MI/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-
     003>006-084-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.

  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 161722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1222 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>006-009-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 161722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1222 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>006-009-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 161207
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
707 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SLEET TO SAW THROUGH AROUND
14Z. OTHERWISE...COLD CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
PERIODS OF LIFR VSBY BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF
VSBY BLO 1SM IS LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 161207
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
707 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SLEET TO SAW THROUGH AROUND
14Z. OTHERWISE...COLD CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
PERIODS OF LIFR VSBY BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF
VSBY BLO 1SM IS LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 161053
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
553 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 161053
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
553 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN IL LIFTING TO
THE NE AND HIGH PRES OVER MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN
LAKES FROM WED INTO THU...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 161038
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
538 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 161038
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
538 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER
NRN IL AND A NRN STREAM SHRTWV ACROSS NW ONTARIO INTO NW MN. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN IL WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
INTO ERN UPPER MI. 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE NRN IL LOW
HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CNTRL
UPPER MI WHILE 850-700 FGEN HAS SUPPORTED THE SNOW INTO WRN UPPER
MI. NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE
TROUGH HAS BROUGHT COLDER AIR INTO WRN UPPER MI CHANGING THE RAIN TO
SNOW AT CMX/IWD/LNL. EVEN THROUGH TEMPS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 32F
AT KMQT...THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SRN STREAM LOW HAS MAINTAINED
AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER (AROUND 850 MB FROM 1C TO 3C) OVER CENTRAL
UPPER MI. EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...THE RECENT
WARM CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED GLAZE POTENTIAL AS MOST SURFACES HAVE
NOT COOLED OFF AS FAST.

TODAY...AS THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NW THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ICING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE TEMPS
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN SNOW
CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ERN CWA BY AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SNOW AT ERY AFTER 21Z. THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WITH INCREASING
700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MI TODAY. 1 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE NRLY WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -6C TO
-10C RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH NRN WI...LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS UPPER MI WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIER SNOWFAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

HEADLINES...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ001>005-009-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 160830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

SINCE THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SLOW THE INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND SLOWED THE
CHANGE TO SN BY A FEW HRS. SINCE VSBYS ARE SLOWLY COMING UP AT MANY
PLACES...ALSO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVYS EXPIRE AT 01Z. DID ISSUE AN
SPS FOR LINGERING DENSE FOG PATCHES...WHICH WL LAST LONGEST OVER THE
E HALF OF THE CWA WITH A LATER COLD FROPA/MORE PERSISTENT S WIND OFF
LK MI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 160830
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

SINCE THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SLOW THE INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND SLOWED THE
CHANGE TO SN BY A FEW HRS. SINCE VSBYS ARE SLOWLY COMING UP AT MANY
PLACES...ALSO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVYS EXPIRE AT 01Z. DID ISSUE AN
SPS FOR LINGERING DENSE FOG PATCHES...WHICH WL LAST LONGEST OVER THE
E HALF OF THE CWA WITH A LATER COLD FROPA/MORE PERSISTENT S WIND OFF
LK MI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 1006MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STRETCHING WEST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. WHERE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-14C WILL LEAD TO LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THEN THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
BRINGING WARMER 850MB AIR OVER THE AREA. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE
INTENSITY OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TO BE IN THE 12-15 TO 1 RANGE. THE ONE AREA WHERE VALUES
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WOULD BE OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND PUTTING MORE OF THE CLOUD
IN THE DGZ. BUT EVEN THEN...A LOT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED FORCING IS AT
OR BELOW THE DGZ...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RIMING OF ANY DENDRITES AND
IN TURN RATIOS IN THE 15-17 TO ONE RANGE. ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH THE DRIER/WARMER AIR QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS TRANSITION IS SEVERAL HOURS FASTER THAN
SHOWN 24HRS AGO IN THE MODELS AND HAVE SHOWN THAT FASTER END IN THE
POPS. THAT WARMER/DRIER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF MOISTURE AROUND 925MB BEING TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THURSDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND FAVORED AREAS AND THEN
TRANSITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-925MB
DELTA-T VALUES BECOME MORE MARGINAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF BOTH
UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM FEATURES WHICH LEADS TO A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE FIRST FEATURE THAT THEY
DIFFER ON IS A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW
WITH A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND FLATTER WITH THE WAVE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/MEMBERS...THE 12Z ECMWF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. BUT WHERE
THINGS DIFFER IS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE 12Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLD ONTO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE GFS IN THE IDEA OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. BASED OFF THE 12Z ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 00Z
GEM/ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS COMING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THAT
IDEA...WILL FOLLOW THAT FOR THIS FORECAST. BUT EVEN WITH THAT WEAK
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PERSISTENT
AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND
-6C...WHICH IS EVEN MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IF THERE WAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THEN SLOWLY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) FOR THE WEEKEND.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GEM/GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO A WEEK ON AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS AND
LIKELY REMAINING FOR THE END OF DECEMBER. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 8-9
DAYS OUT...THE CONSISTENCY IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THIS IDEA
IS WORTH MENTIONING. THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A CANADIAN LOW TO DROP
THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON THE 24TH OR
25TH. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNFORECASTABLE AT THIS TIME...AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THAT BUSY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 160537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

SINCE THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SLOW THE INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND SLOWED THE
CHANGE TO SN BY A FEW HRS. SINCE VSBYS ARE SLOWLY COMING UP AT MANY
PLACES...ALSO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVYS EXPIRE AT 01Z. DID ISSUE AN
SPS FOR LINGERING DENSE FOG PATCHES...WHICH WL LAST LONGEST OVER THE
E HALF OF THE CWA WITH A LATER COLD FROPA/MORE PERSISTENT S WIND OFF
LK MI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 160537
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

SINCE THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SLOW THE INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND SLOWED THE
CHANGE TO SN BY A FEW HRS. SINCE VSBYS ARE SLOWLY COMING UP AT MANY
PLACES...ALSO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVYS EXPIRE AT 01Z. DID ISSUE AN
SPS FOR LINGERING DENSE FOG PATCHES...WHICH WL LAST LONGEST OVER THE
E HALF OF THE CWA WITH A LATER COLD FROPA/MORE PERSISTENT S WIND OFF
LK MI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE AT THE SITES EARLY THIS MRNG
AS AREA OF LARGER SCALE PCPN MOVES OVHD AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPR LKS BEHIND SLOW MOVING COLD FNT... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT CMX
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATER
ARRIVAL OF THE FNT AND MORE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIR INFLOW WL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SAW UNTIL
SUNRISE. THEN CYC...GUSTY N FLOW THRU TODAY WL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
-SN/PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS. SOME HEAVIER SN MAY IMPACT THE SITES
TNGT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES SE THRU THE UPR LKS...LEADING TO
A PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 160132
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
832 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

SINCE THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SLOW THE INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND SLOWED THE
CHANGE TO SN BY A FEW HRS. SINCE VSBYS ARE SLOWLY COMING UP AT MANY
PLACES...ALSO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVYS EXPIRE AT 01Z. DID ISSUE AN
SPS FOR LINGERING DENSE FOG PATCHES...WHICH WL LAST LONGEST OVER THE
E HALF OF THE CWA WITH A LATER COLD FROPA/MORE PERSISTENT S WIND OFF
LK MI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO
IFR/MVFR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. THE MOST AUSTERE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST LONGEST AT SAW...WHERE THE COLD FNT WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVNG. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX
WITH A WEAKER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT FOR THE N WIND BEHIND THE FROPA.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS...RA WL CHANGE TO SN W-E OVERNGT AND BRING
ABOUT A DROP IN VSBY AND A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON TUE.
GUSTY N WINDS WL ALSO CAUSE SOME BLSN LATE TNGT/TUE...CONTRIBUTING TO
THE LOWER VSBYS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 160132
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
832 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

SINCE THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO SLOW THE INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR...RAISED FCST MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND SLOWED THE
CHANGE TO SN BY A FEW HRS. SINCE VSBYS ARE SLOWLY COMING UP AT MANY
PLACES...ALSO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVYS EXPIRE AT 01Z. DID ISSUE AN
SPS FOR LINGERING DENSE FOG PATCHES...WHICH WL LAST LONGEST OVER THE
E HALF OF THE CWA WITH A LATER COLD FROPA/MORE PERSISTENT S WIND OFF
LK MI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO
IFR/MVFR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. THE MOST AUSTERE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST LONGEST AT SAW...WHERE THE COLD FNT WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVNG. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX
WITH A WEAKER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT FOR THE N WIND BEHIND THE FROPA.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS...RA WL CHANGE TO SN W-E OVERNGT AND BRING
ABOUT A DROP IN VSBY AND A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON TUE.
GUSTY N WINDS WL ALSO CAUSE SOME BLSN LATE TNGT/TUE...CONTRIBUTING TO
THE LOWER VSBYS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 160007
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
707 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO
IFR/MVFR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. THE MOST AUSTERE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST LONGEST AT SAW...WHERE THE COLD FNT WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVNG. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX
WITH A WEAKER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT FOR THE N WIND BEHIND THE FROPA.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS...RA WL CHANGE TO SN W-E OVERNGT AND BRING
ABOUT A DROP IN VSBY AND A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON TUE.
GUSTY N WINDS WL ALSO CAUSE SOME BLSN LATE TNGT/TUE...CONTRIBUTING TO
THE LOWER VSBYS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






000
FXUS63 KMQT 160007
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
707 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO
IFR/MVFR FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. THE MOST AUSTERE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL
PERSIST LONGEST AT SAW...WHERE THE COLD FNT WL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
IN THE EVNG. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WL BE AT CMX
WITH A WEAKER UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT FOR THE N WIND BEHIND THE FROPA.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS...RA WL CHANGE TO SN W-E OVERNGT AND BRING
ABOUT A DROP IN VSBY AND A RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON TUE.
GUSTY N WINDS WL ALSO CAUSE SOME BLSN LATE TNGT/TUE...CONTRIBUTING TO
THE LOWER VSBYS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07





000
FXUS63 KMQT 152152
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 152152
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 152152
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 152152
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR NORMAL...WEATHER.

SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLICK DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO RUSH IN. THE
MAIN HOLD OUT WILL STILL BE JUST E OF THE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL
STILL BE MARGINAL FOR ALL SNOW. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM -1C
EAST TO AROUND -15C NEAR IWD. IT WILL BE QUITE A CONTRAST E TO W.
MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE W
THIRD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED BY N-NNW
WINDS. THE MAIN SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER S LAKE HURON AND FAR S
ONTARIO...WITH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS N MN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA/W ONTARIO THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ASSIST IN THE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE REMAINING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BLOWING ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE.

WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-17:1...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. CONTINUED TO MENTION THE MODERATE
SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS
FALLING ON SATURATED SOILS UNLESS A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW
FALLS...EXPECT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FALL IN THE 3RD PERIOD
/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY/. THE DGZ WILL HOVER STILL
AROUND 600MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P...WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
SLIDING OVER THE W. THIS WILL MEAN FAVORABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
FOR GOGEBIC THROUGH HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF -15
TO -20C RIGHT AROUND 850MB. STORM TOTAL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE 2-6IN OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI
AND ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE DRY HIGH PUSHING IN
FROM THE PLAINS WILL CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS MINOR AT THIS TIME RIGHT
ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S TO RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 152012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
312 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07







000
FXUS63 KMQT 152012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
312 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A NORTHERN TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO RIDGING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THE ROCKIES. THE CLOSED
LOW AND THE TROUGH TRY TO MERGE INTO ONE SYSTEM AS THE LOW HEADS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM TUE AFTERNOON. NAM...GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. COLDER AIR
COMES IN TONIGHT WHICH WILL START TO GET RID OF THE FOG...SO WILL
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPES AND WAS NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GOING FORECAST AND SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET
STARTED ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT WORRY TOO MUCH
ABOUT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AS THIS DID NOT LOOK LIKE IT WOULD LAST
VERY LONG AT ALL AND KEPT THE PCPN GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. BROUGHT THE COLD AIR IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES
AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO POPS OR QPF AMOUNTS EITHER.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1-4 INCHES ON TUESDAY WITH THE SNOW REALLY
STARTING UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT UNTIL
THEN AND WILL NOT GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG.
EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST WIND FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. NO
GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON OTHERWISE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07








000
FXUS63 KMQT 151708
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER CENTRAL KS AND A NRN STREAM
SHRTWV FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO SE SASK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 90 KNOT 250MB JET OVER NRN ONTARIO SUPPORTED AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...SSW FLOW OF MILD/MOIST AIR PREVAILED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL MN TO LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL KS. DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 40F INTO UPPER MI ABOVE THE EXTENSIVE MELTING SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN UPPER MI.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED FOG OVER THE NORTH.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL WARMING. OTHERWISE...SOME
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 850 MB AND SOME WEAK LIFT AIDED BY FORCING AHEAD OF
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM SHRTWVS. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST BY LATE TODAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE AND ANOTHER JET STREAK
LIFTS THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD LOWER MI...THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A BLEND
OF THE NAM/REGIONAL-GEM 1000-850 THICKNESS WAS USED TO APPROXIMATE
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION WITH SNOW TO THE FAR WEST BTWN 03Z-06Z AND
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z-12Z. RAIN SHOULD STILL LINGER EAST OF
P53-ESC THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WITH A
LINGERING WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB BUT SINCE IT WILL BE VERY
TRANSIENT...NO SEPARATE SLEET WORDING WAS ADDED. NRLY WINDS WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8C WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WET FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG. THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT FROM KS TO IA TODAY AND TO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 151708
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER CENTRAL KS AND A NRN STREAM
SHRTWV FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO SE SASK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 90 KNOT 250MB JET OVER NRN ONTARIO SUPPORTED AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...SSW FLOW OF MILD/MOIST AIR PREVAILED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL MN TO LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL KS. DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 40F INTO UPPER MI ABOVE THE EXTENSIVE MELTING SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN UPPER MI.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED FOG OVER THE NORTH.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL WARMING. OTHERWISE...SOME
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 850 MB AND SOME WEAK LIFT AIDED BY FORCING AHEAD OF
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM SHRTWVS. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST BY LATE TODAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE AND ANOTHER JET STREAK
LIFTS THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD LOWER MI...THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A BLEND
OF THE NAM/REGIONAL-GEM 1000-850 THICKNESS WAS USED TO APPROXIMATE
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION WITH SNOW TO THE FAR WEST BTWN 03Z-06Z AND
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z-12Z. RAIN SHOULD STILL LINGER EAST OF
P53-ESC THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WITH A
LINGERING WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB BUT SINCE IT WILL BE VERY
TRANSIENT...NO SEPARATE SLEET WORDING WAS ADDED. NRLY WINDS WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8C WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WET FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CONTINUED LOW VIS/LOW CIG EVENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN LIFR/VLIFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE COLDER AIR CHANGES THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW.
WILL GET GUSTY WITH NORTH WINDS WITH THE COLD AIR AND ONCE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR/LIFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG. THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT FROM KS TO IA TODAY AND TO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 151204
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
704 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER CENTRAL KS AND A NRN STREAM
SHRTWV FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO SE SASK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 90 KNOT 250MB JET OVER NRN ONTARIO SUPPORTED AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...SSW FLOW OF MILD/MOIST AIR PREVAILED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL MN TO LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL KS. DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 40F INTO UPPER MI ABOVE THE EXTENSIVE MELTING SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN UPPER MI.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED FOG OVER THE NORTH.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL WARMING. OTHERWISE...SOME
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 850 MB AND SOME WEAK LIFT AIDED BY FORCING AHEAD OF
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM SHRTWVS. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST BY LATE TODAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE AND ANOTHER JET STREAK
LIFTS THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD LOWER MI...THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A BLEND
OF THE NAM/REGIONAL-GEM 1000-850 THICKNESS WAS USED TO APPROXIMATE
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION WITH SNOW TO THE FAR WEST BTWN 03Z-06Z AND
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z-12Z. RAIN SHOULD STILL LINGER EAST OF
P53-ESC THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WITH A
LINGERING WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB BUT SINCE IT WILL BE VERY
TRANSIENT...NO SEPARATE SLEET WORDING WAS ADDED. NRLY WINDS WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8C WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WET FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CMX...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A SRLY DOWNSLOPE WIND LIMITING
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VIS TO DROP TO LANDING MINS. THE LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGS CONTINUED LOWER CIGS INTO THE LIFR. COLDER AIR MOVING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH
CONTINUED IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS.

IWD....EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A MOIST FLOW OVER THE MELTING SNOW PACK. THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT/ARRIVAL OF EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND.

SAW...EXPECT PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW LANDING
MINIMUMS. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT THIS EVNG AND A DVLPG UPSLOPE N WIND/SOME
RA...A RETURN TO LIFR WX IS FORECAST. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG. THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT FROM KS TO IA TODAY AND TO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 151204
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
704 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER CENTRAL KS AND A NRN STREAM
SHRTWV FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO SE SASK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 90 KNOT 250MB JET OVER NRN ONTARIO SUPPORTED AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...SSW FLOW OF MILD/MOIST AIR PREVAILED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL MN TO LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL KS. DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 40F INTO UPPER MI ABOVE THE EXTENSIVE MELTING SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN UPPER MI.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED FOG OVER THE NORTH.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL WARMING. OTHERWISE...SOME
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 850 MB AND SOME WEAK LIFT AIDED BY FORCING AHEAD OF
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM SHRTWVS. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST BY LATE TODAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE AND ANOTHER JET STREAK
LIFTS THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD LOWER MI...THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A BLEND
OF THE NAM/REGIONAL-GEM 1000-850 THICKNESS WAS USED TO APPROXIMATE
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION WITH SNOW TO THE FAR WEST BTWN 03Z-06Z AND
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z-12Z. RAIN SHOULD STILL LINGER EAST OF
P53-ESC THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WITH A
LINGERING WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB BUT SINCE IT WILL BE VERY
TRANSIENT...NO SEPARATE SLEET WORDING WAS ADDED. NRLY WINDS WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8C WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WET FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

CMX...EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A SRLY DOWNSLOPE WIND LIMITING
POTENTIAL FOR CIGS/VIS TO DROP TO LANDING MINS. THE LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGS CONTINUED LOWER CIGS INTO THE LIFR. COLDER AIR MOVING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH
CONTINUED IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS.

IWD....EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A MOIST FLOW OVER THE MELTING SNOW PACK. THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT/ARRIVAL OF EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH AN UPSLOPE N WIND.

SAW...EXPECT PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW LANDING
MINIMUMS. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN. FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT THIS EVNG AND A DVLPG UPSLOPE N WIND/SOME
RA...A RETURN TO LIFR WX IS FORECAST. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR
TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG. THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT FROM KS TO IA TODAY AND TO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 151035
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
535 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER CENTRAL KS AND A NRN STREAM
SHRTWV FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO SE SASK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 90 KNOT 250MB JET OVER NRN ONTARIO SUPPORTED AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...SSW FLOW OF MILD/MOIST AIR PREVAILED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL MN TO LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL KS. DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 40F INTO UPPER MI ABOVE THE EXTENSIVE MELTING SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN UPPER MI.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED FOG OVER THE NORTH.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL WARMING. OTHERWISE...SOME
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 850 MB AND SOME WEAK LIFT AIDED BY FORCING AHEAD OF
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM SHRTWVS. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST BY LATE TODAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE AND ANOTHER JET STREAK
LIFTS THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD LOWER MI...THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A BLEND
OF THE NAM/REGIONAL-GEM 1000-850 THICKNESS WAS USED TO APPROXIMATE
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION WITH SNOW TO THE FAR WEST BTWN 03Z-06Z AND
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z-12Z. RAIN SHOULD STILL LINGER EAST OF
P53-ESC THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WITH A
LINGERING WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB BUT SINCE IT WILL BE VERY
TRANSIENT...NO SEPARATE SLEET WORDING WAS ADDED. NRLY WINDS WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8C WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WET FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING REDUCING THE FOG. THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT FROM KS TO IA TODAY AND TO LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 151021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM SHRTWV/LOW OVER CENTRAL KS AND A NRN STREAM
SHRTWV FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO SE SASK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 90 KNOT 250MB JET OVER NRN ONTARIO SUPPORTED AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AT
THE SFC...SSW FLOW OF MILD/MOIST AIR PREVAILED AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL MN TO LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL KS. DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 40F INTO UPPER MI ABOVE THE EXTENSIVE MELTING SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN UPPER MI.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED FOG OVER THE NORTH.

TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL WARMING. OTHERWISE...SOME
OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH 850 MB AND SOME WEAK LIFT AIDED BY FORCING AHEAD OF
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF THE NRN/SRN STREAM SHRTWVS. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND STRONGER LIFT THAT WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST BY LATE TODAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE AND ANOTHER JET STREAK
LIFTS THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD LOWER MI...THE PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. A BLEND
OF THE NAM/REGIONAL-GEM 1000-850 THICKNESS WAS USED TO APPROXIMATE
THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION WITH SNOW TO THE FAR WEST BTWN 03Z-06Z AND
INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 09Z-12Z. RAIN SHOULD STILL LINGER EAST OF
P53-ESC THROUGH 12Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WITH A
LINGERING WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB BUT SINCE IT WILL BE VERY
TRANSIENT...NO SEPARATE SLEET WORDING WAS ADDED. NRLY WINDS WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -8C WILL ALSO BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE
WET FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL BOATS OPERATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING /WITH FOG
DIMINISHING/. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE S END OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
KANSAS TO IOWA MONDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 150806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES. SFC OBS/WEBCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG WITH VSBY AOB
1/4SM PREVAILS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND IN AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WITH A S WIND TNGT ADVECTING MORE LLVL MSTR INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR AND OVER A MELTING SN PACK IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT DENSE FOG DOWNWIND OF LK MI TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. BUT SINCE THE INCRSG S WIND WL DOWNSLOPE
OVER THE W...EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN MORE PATCHY IN GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON AND TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE KEWEENAW
OVERNGT. SO CARRIED THE ADVY OVER THE KEWEENAW ONLY UNTIL 06Z. KEPT
THE ADVY FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA GOING THRU MON MRNG...WHEN SOME
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT WL ALLOW VSBYS TO REBOUND BY NOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE SAME PATTERN...WITH AN ELONGATED SFC LOW TO
OUR W AND SFC-500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR E AND SE. THE MAIN CHANGE AS
THE SFC LOW NEARS IS INCREASED MOISTURE PUMPING UP INTO UPPER MI. PW
VALUES OF 150 TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOVING TO 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 09Z
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG INVERSION. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF MPX AND GRB SHOWED THE SATURATED LAYER UP
THROUGH 800MB...AND THEN EXTREME DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 60-90F /OR AROUND 50C/. GIVEN VIS REPORTS OF LESS THAN
1/4SM TO AROUND 2MI DOWNSTREAM...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING/DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA. THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA /MAINLY AROUND CMX/ HAS BEEN STUCK IN LOW VIS AT 1SM OR
LESS SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS WITH
THE FREEZING OF WET ROADS OR DRIZZLE.

WHILE THE N END OF THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING...THE S EDGE /TIED TO THE 500MB LOW OVER KS/ WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. FCST GETS A BIT TRICKY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SE WINDS NEAR THE SFC...JUMPING TO AROUND 10KTS OVER
THE FAR W. LOW CLOUDS AND VIS MAY HOLD OUT OVER THE FAR
W...BASICALLY W OF A LINE FROM WATERSMEET THROUGH BARAGA. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN
FOG MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2C FAR W AS WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AROUND IWD BY 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL BOATS OPERATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING /WITH FOG
DIMINISHING/. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE S END OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
KANSAS TO IOWA MONDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 150806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES. SFC OBS/WEBCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG WITH VSBY AOB
1/4SM PREVAILS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND IN AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WITH A S WIND TNGT ADVECTING MORE LLVL MSTR INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR AND OVER A MELTING SN PACK IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT DENSE FOG DOWNWIND OF LK MI TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. BUT SINCE THE INCRSG S WIND WL DOWNSLOPE
OVER THE W...EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN MORE PATCHY IN GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON AND TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE KEWEENAW
OVERNGT. SO CARRIED THE ADVY OVER THE KEWEENAW ONLY UNTIL 06Z. KEPT
THE ADVY FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA GOING THRU MON MRNG...WHEN SOME
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT WL ALLOW VSBYS TO REBOUND BY NOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE SAME PATTERN...WITH AN ELONGATED SFC LOW TO
OUR W AND SFC-500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR E AND SE. THE MAIN CHANGE AS
THE SFC LOW NEARS IS INCREASED MOISTURE PUMPING UP INTO UPPER MI. PW
VALUES OF 150 TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOVING TO 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 09Z
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG INVERSION. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF MPX AND GRB SHOWED THE SATURATED LAYER UP
THROUGH 800MB...AND THEN EXTREME DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 60-90F /OR AROUND 50C/. GIVEN VIS REPORTS OF LESS THAN
1/4SM TO AROUND 2MI DOWNSTREAM...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING/DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA. THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA /MAINLY AROUND CMX/ HAS BEEN STUCK IN LOW VIS AT 1SM OR
LESS SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS WITH
THE FREEZING OF WET ROADS OR DRIZZLE.

WHILE THE N END OF THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING...THE S EDGE /TIED TO THE 500MB LOW OVER KS/ WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. FCST GETS A BIT TRICKY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SE WINDS NEAR THE SFC...JUMPING TO AROUND 10KTS OVER
THE FAR W. LOW CLOUDS AND VIS MAY HOLD OUT OVER THE FAR
W...BASICALLY W OF A LINE FROM WATERSMEET THROUGH BARAGA. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN
FOG MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2C FAR W AS WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AROUND IWD BY 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL BOATS OPERATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING /WITH FOG
DIMINISHING/. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE S END OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
KANSAS TO IOWA MONDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 150806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES. SFC OBS/WEBCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG WITH VSBY AOB
1/4SM PREVAILS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND IN AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WITH A S WIND TNGT ADVECTING MORE LLVL MSTR INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR AND OVER A MELTING SN PACK IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT DENSE FOG DOWNWIND OF LK MI TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. BUT SINCE THE INCRSG S WIND WL DOWNSLOPE
OVER THE W...EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN MORE PATCHY IN GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON AND TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE KEWEENAW
OVERNGT. SO CARRIED THE ADVY OVER THE KEWEENAW ONLY UNTIL 06Z. KEPT
THE ADVY FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA GOING THRU MON MRNG...WHEN SOME
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT WL ALLOW VSBYS TO REBOUND BY NOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE SAME PATTERN...WITH AN ELONGATED SFC LOW TO
OUR W AND SFC-500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR E AND SE. THE MAIN CHANGE AS
THE SFC LOW NEARS IS INCREASED MOISTURE PUMPING UP INTO UPPER MI. PW
VALUES OF 150 TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOVING TO 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 09Z
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG INVERSION. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF MPX AND GRB SHOWED THE SATURATED LAYER UP
THROUGH 800MB...AND THEN EXTREME DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 60-90F /OR AROUND 50C/. GIVEN VIS REPORTS OF LESS THAN
1/4SM TO AROUND 2MI DOWNSTREAM...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING/DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA. THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA /MAINLY AROUND CMX/ HAS BEEN STUCK IN LOW VIS AT 1SM OR
LESS SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS WITH
THE FREEZING OF WET ROADS OR DRIZZLE.

WHILE THE N END OF THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING...THE S EDGE /TIED TO THE 500MB LOW OVER KS/ WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. FCST GETS A BIT TRICKY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SE WINDS NEAR THE SFC...JUMPING TO AROUND 10KTS OVER
THE FAR W. LOW CLOUDS AND VIS MAY HOLD OUT OVER THE FAR
W...BASICALLY W OF A LINE FROM WATERSMEET THROUGH BARAGA. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN
FOG MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2C FAR W AS WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AROUND IWD BY 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL BOATS OPERATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING /WITH FOG
DIMINISHING/. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE S END OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
KANSAS TO IOWA MONDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 150806
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES. SFC OBS/WEBCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG WITH VSBY AOB
1/4SM PREVAILS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND IN AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WITH A S WIND TNGT ADVECTING MORE LLVL MSTR INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR AND OVER A MELTING SN PACK IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT DENSE FOG DOWNWIND OF LK MI TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. BUT SINCE THE INCRSG S WIND WL DOWNSLOPE
OVER THE W...EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN MORE PATCHY IN GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON AND TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE KEWEENAW
OVERNGT. SO CARRIED THE ADVY OVER THE KEWEENAW ONLY UNTIL 06Z. KEPT
THE ADVY FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA GOING THRU MON MRNG...WHEN SOME
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT WL ALLOW VSBYS TO REBOUND BY NOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE SAME PATTERN...WITH AN ELONGATED SFC LOW TO
OUR W AND SFC-500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR E AND SE. THE MAIN CHANGE AS
THE SFC LOW NEARS IS INCREASED MOISTURE PUMPING UP INTO UPPER MI. PW
VALUES OF 150 TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOVING TO 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 09Z
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG INVERSION. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF MPX AND GRB SHOWED THE SATURATED LAYER UP
THROUGH 800MB...AND THEN EXTREME DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 60-90F /OR AROUND 50C/. GIVEN VIS REPORTS OF LESS THAN
1/4SM TO AROUND 2MI DOWNSTREAM...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING/DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA. THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA /MAINLY AROUND CMX/ HAS BEEN STUCK IN LOW VIS AT 1SM OR
LESS SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS WITH
THE FREEZING OF WET ROADS OR DRIZZLE.

WHILE THE N END OF THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING...THE S EDGE /TIED TO THE 500MB LOW OVER KS/ WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. FCST GETS A BIT TRICKY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SE WINDS NEAR THE SFC...JUMPING TO AROUND 10KTS OVER
THE FAR W. LOW CLOUDS AND VIS MAY HOLD OUT OVER THE FAR
W...BASICALLY W OF A LINE FROM WATERSMEET THROUGH BARAGA. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN
FOG MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2C FAR W AS WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AROUND IWD BY 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MARK A RETURN TO WEATHER
MORE LIKE EARLY-MID DECEMBER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL LIE WITH THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

AT 12Z TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE TWO SHORTWAVES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE FIRST WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE SECOND WAVE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO FEATURES...IN GENERAL THEY ARE PRETTY
SIMILAR IN THE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A 1004MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A 1009MB TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...THE 850MB TROUGH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST AND WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL U.P.. EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND RAIN/FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO RAPID RIVER.
WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANGE TO SNOW TO
OCCUR THERE. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE LEAVING
A MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH BACK WEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TIED TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
THAT OCCURS...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.P. AND FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.P. AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THERE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE
THERE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TROUGH
PULLS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST...THE COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA (850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO -15C BY 00Z WEDNESDAY) WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
INITIALLY AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTS OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST (AROUND 340 DEGREES) AS THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE 850MB TEMPS BEING NEAR
THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER...LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ WILL BE LIMITED AND
EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO BE IN THE 12 TO 1 RANGE INITIALLY OVER THE FAR
WEST AND RISING TO THE MID TEENS. BUT HEADING CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AND MORE INTO THE LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION (FROM THE
KEWEENAW THROUGH NORTHERN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN) WOULD THINK THAT
RATIOS WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER (UPPER TEENS) DUE TO THE LARGER AREA
THE CLOUD WILL BE IN THE DGZ. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SYNOPTIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT GENERALLY AMOUNT TO 1-2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OR COUNTIES AND ALSO SCHOOLCRAFT AND NORTHEAST
DELTA COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE HURON MOUNTAINS TO CHATHAM
AND NEWBERRY. WHILE THE RATES DON/T LOOK TO BE THAT HIGH...THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE SNOW WOULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH A LONG DURATION ADVISORY LIKELY
NEEDED IN THE FUTURE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ALLOWING DRIER
AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
NEAR KINL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY QUICK END TO THE LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE POPS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS
FOR A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LOW-MID 20S)...BUT THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY SATURDAY (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) WITH THE RELATIVELY
WARM NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL BOATS OPERATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING /WITH FOG
DIMINISHING/. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE S END OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
KANSAS TO IOWA MONDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 150520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1220 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES. SFC OBS/WEBCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG WITH VSBY AOB
1/4SM PREVAILS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND IN AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WITH A S WIND TNGT ADVECTING MORE LLVL MSTR INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR AND OVER A MELTING SN PACK IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT DENSE FOG DOWNWIND OF LK MI TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. BUT SINCE THE INCRSG S WIND WL DOWNSLOPE
OVER THE W...EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN MORE PATCHY IN GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON AND TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE KEWEENAW
OVERNGT. SO CARRIED THE ADVY OVER THE KEWEENAW ONLY UNTIL 06Z. KEPT
THE ADVY FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA GOING THRU MON MRNG...WHEN SOME
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT WL ALLOW VSBYS TO REBOUND BY NOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE SAME PATTERN...WITH AN ELONGATED SFC LOW TO
OUR W AND SFC-500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR E AND SE. THE MAIN CHANGE AS
THE SFC LOW NEARS IS INCREASED MOISTURE PUMPING UP INTO UPPER MI. PW
VALUES OF 150 TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOVING TO 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 09Z
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG INVERSION. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF MPX AND GRB SHOWED THE SATURATED LAYER UP
THROUGH 800MB...AND THEN EXTREME DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 60-90F /OR AROUND 50C/. GIVEN VIS REPORTS OF LESS THAN
1/4SM TO AROUND 2MI DOWNSTREAM...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING/DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA. THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA /MAINLY AROUND CMX/ HAS BEEN STUCK IN LOW VIS AT 1SM OR
LESS SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS WITH
THE FREEZING OF WET ROADS OR DRIZZLE.

WHILE THE N END OF THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING...THE S EDGE /TIED TO THE 500MB LOW OVER KS/ WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. FCST GETS A BIT TRICKY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SE WINDS NEAR THE SFC...JUMPING TO AROUND 10KTS OVER
THE FAR W. LOW CLOUDS AND VIS MAY HOLD OUT OVER THE FAR
W...BASICALLY W OF A LINE FROM WATERSMEET THROUGH BARAGA. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN
FOG MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2C FAR W AS WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AROUND IWD BY 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

STARTING THE LONG TERM AT 00Z TUE RESULTS IN A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER A 1001MB SFC LOW IN SERN IA. A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARD
JAMES BAY...WHICH IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NWRN ONTARIO.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z TUE AS 850MB AND
SFC TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM W TO E MON NIGHT INTO TUE...TRANSITIONING PRECIP TO ALL SNOW
FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR 03Z-09Z TUE...MARQUETTE TO IRON
MOUNTAIN 09Z-12Z...AND OVER THE ERN CWA AROUND 18Z. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS MODELS DEPICT GREATEST PRECIP OVER/NEAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO INTERACT...SO FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST
PRECIP ALONG WITH TIMING OF CHANGE OVER THE SNOW IS DIFFICULT.
THANKFULLY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEMS. THE
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SHIFTS E TO SRN LAKE HURON DURING THE
DAY TUE AS THE NRN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN MN. SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL TRANSITION TO BEING PRIMARILY FROM THE NRN SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE DAY TUE AND WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -15C OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WED...LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
FROM W TO E. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE COLD THROUGH WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST S OF THE CWA /ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/14 NAM SHIFT THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CWA AND THE 12Z/14 GFS IS SLOWER WITH MOVING
THE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE REGION...THE 00Z/14 ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
FASTER/...BUT THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1030MB OR GREATER SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WITH A SFC
TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE EARLIER SFC
LOW...N-NW WINDS SNOWBELTS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE LES. THINK THAT
LES WILL END BY THU MORNING IF ECMWF VERIFIES OR BE THU EVENING IF
THE GFS PANS OUT.

FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE OF
3-5 INCHES FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR AND OVER NERN BARAGA
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE...HAVE 0.5-1.0 INCHES NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 1-3 INCHES OVER THE NCENTRAL
/IRON...DICKINSON...MARQUETTE COUNTIES PRIMARILY/. THEN FOR
LES TUE NIGHT AND WED...HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3-6 INCHES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST A TRACE SCENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS
AMOUNTS IN THE HWO.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...WARMER /HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30/ AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR
THE WEEKEND...SAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO
SAT...BUT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
KEEP UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPLIT BETWEEN A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN CONUS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL BOATS OPERATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING /WITH FOG
DIMINISHING/. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE S END OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
KANSAS TO IOWA MONDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 150520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1220 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT GOGEBIC AND
ONTONAGON COUNTIES. SFC OBS/WEBCAMS INDICATE DENSE FOG WITH VSBY AOB
1/4SM PREVAILS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND IN AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WITH A S WIND TNGT ADVECTING MORE LLVL MSTR INTO
THE UPR LKS UNDER MID LVL DRY AIR AND OVER A MELTING SN PACK IN THE
PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT DENSE FOG DOWNWIND OF LK MI TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. BUT SINCE THE INCRSG S WIND WL DOWNSLOPE
OVER THE W...EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN MORE PATCHY IN GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON AND TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OVER THE KEWEENAW
OVERNGT. SO CARRIED THE ADVY OVER THE KEWEENAW ONLY UNTIL 06Z. KEPT
THE ADVY FOR THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA GOING THRU MON MRNG...WHEN SOME
DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT WL ALLOW VSBYS TO REBOUND BY NOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

WE REMAIN STUCK IN THE SAME PATTERN...WITH AN ELONGATED SFC LOW TO
OUR W AND SFC-500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR E AND SE. THE MAIN CHANGE AS
THE SFC LOW NEARS IS INCREASED MOISTURE PUMPING UP INTO UPPER MI. PW
VALUES OF 150 TO NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MOVING TO 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 09Z
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG INVERSION. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF MPX AND GRB SHOWED THE SATURATED LAYER UP
THROUGH 800MB...AND THEN EXTREME DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 60-90F /OR AROUND 50C/. GIVEN VIS REPORTS OF LESS THAN
1/4SM TO AROUND 2MI DOWNSTREAM...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING/DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST ABOVE DENSE FOG CRITERIA. THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA /MAINLY AROUND CMX/ HAS BEEN STUCK IN LOW VIS AT 1SM OR
LESS SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS WITH
THE FREEZING OF WET ROADS OR DRIZZLE.

WHILE THE N END OF THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTS INTO W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
MORNING...THE S EDGE /TIED TO THE 500MB LOW OVER KS/ WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. FCST GETS A BIT TRICKY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SE WINDS NEAR THE SFC...JUMPING TO AROUND 10KTS OVER
THE FAR W. LOW CLOUDS AND VIS MAY HOLD OUT OVER THE FAR
W...BASICALLY W OF A LINE FROM WATERSMEET THROUGH BARAGA. STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN
FOG MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2C FAR W AS WINDS BEGIN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE N AROUND IWD BY 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

STARTING THE LONG TERM AT 00Z TUE RESULTS IN A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVER A 1001MB SFC LOW IN SERN IA. A SFC
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARD
JAMES BAY...WHICH IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NWRN ONTARIO.
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 00Z TUE AS 850MB AND
SFC TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM W TO E MON NIGHT INTO TUE...TRANSITIONING PRECIP TO ALL SNOW
FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR 03Z-09Z TUE...MARQUETTE TO IRON
MOUNTAIN 09Z-12Z...AND OVER THE ERN CWA AROUND 18Z. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS MODELS DEPICT GREATEST PRECIP OVER/NEAR WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES
BEGIN TO INTERACT...SO FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST
PRECIP ALONG WITH TIMING OF CHANGE OVER THE SNOW IS DIFFICULT.
THANKFULLY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEMS. THE
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW SHIFTS E TO SRN LAKE HURON DURING THE
DAY TUE AS THE NRN SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN MN. SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL TRANSITION TO BEING PRIMARILY FROM THE NRN SHORTWAVE THROUGH
THE DAY TUE AND WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -15C OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z WED...LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
FROM W TO E. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE COLD THROUGH WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST S OF THE CWA /ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/14 NAM SHIFT THE
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CWA AND THE 12Z/14 GFS IS SLOWER WITH MOVING
THE SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE REGION...THE 00Z/14 ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
FASTER/...BUT THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1030MB OR GREATER SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WITH A SFC
TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE EARLIER SFC
LOW...N-NW WINDS SNOWBELTS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE LES. THINK THAT
LES WILL END BY THU MORNING IF ECMWF VERIFIES OR BE THU EVENING IF
THE GFS PANS OUT.

FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAVE ACCUMULATIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE OF
3-5 INCHES FROM IRONWOOD TO COPPER HARBOR AND OVER NERN BARAGA
COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE...HAVE 0.5-1.0 INCHES NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND 1-3 INCHES OVER THE NCENTRAL
/IRON...DICKINSON...MARQUETTE COUNTIES PRIMARILY/. THEN FOR
LES TUE NIGHT AND WED...HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3-6 INCHES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST A TRACE SCENTRAL. WILL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS
AMOUNTS IN THE HWO.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST FRI...WARMER /HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30/ AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR
THE WEEKEND...SAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO
SAT...BUT MODELS REALLY DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
KEEP UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPLIT BETWEEN A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN CONUS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

CMX...EXPECT DENSE FOG/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARD IFR BY
MIDNGT AS THE WIND SHIFTS FM THE E TO A MORE DOWNSLOPE S DIRECTION.
THESE IFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST INTO MON AFTN WHEN THE ARRIVAL OF
SOME DEEPER MSTR/-RA OR -DZ CAUSES A RETURN OF LIFR WX.

IWD...DOWNSLOPE S WIND WL OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTER AIR THIS EVNG AND RESULT IN ONLY A SLOW DESCENT TOWARD
MVFR BY MIDNGT AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE. THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FNT/ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MSTR ON MON AFTN AND WEAKENING
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL CAUSE LIFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTN.

SAW...AS MOISTER LLVL AIR OFF LK MI ARRIVES THIS EVNG IN THE
PRESENCE OF DIURNAL COOLING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO
LIFR BY LATE EVNG AND THEN TO VLIFR OVERNGT THRU MON MRNG. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SEVERAL BOATS OPERATING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. A LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL PUSH OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING /WITH FOG
DIMINISHING/. THIS WILL BE WHILE THE S END OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM
KANSAS TO IOWA MONDAY...AND LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT N-NW WINDS OF 20-30KTS LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW GALES TO 35KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE
N PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE ENTIRE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ004>007-010>014-084-085.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF








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