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000
FXUS63 KMQT 282353
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
653 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

COMPLEX SHORT TERM...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE DURING TRANSITIONS FROM
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN CWA
TODAY AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SERN CWA. THE SNOW IS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN AND IN AN AREA OF WAA. GENERALLY UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW. ADDITIONAL
MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W/WSW OF THE CWA MORE TOWARD
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL MAINLY MOVE ALONG AND S OF THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ATTENTION TURNS TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS SLY WINDS BRING AN LES BAND NOW ARCHING TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...UPSLOPE/ONSHORE S-SSE
FLOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY E OF A LINE
FROM SAWYER TO MENOMINEE. DO NOT THIS THIS BAND WILL DROP AS MUCH
SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO MODELS SHOWING THE
BAND BEING MORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND ALSO WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME. HAVE
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT AS AN 800-900MB WARM
NOSE WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVES IN FROM THE SW. PRECIP AT THIS
POINT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WAA CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A NARROW AREA OF PRECIP AT OR S OF
MENOMINEE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND
RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF PTYPE TRANSITION. NATURALLY LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS PRECIP WILL OCCUR. PRECIP MAY
INITIALLY BE SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT. IF THAT BAND DOES
SET UP OVER MENOMINEE...GREATER AMOUNTS OF INITIALLY SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH FREEZING PRECIP IS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY NEAR
AND E OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY...WHERE FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING AS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COMES TO AN
END. TRANSITION WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO 12Z OVER THE ERN U.P. EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S SAT...ROAD SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S WILL LEAD TO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON
CONTACT WITH UNTREATED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BARE ROADS AND ROADS
COVERED IN HARD PACKED SNOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FROM FREEZING
PRECIP IS ON ROAD/SIDEWALKS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON AMOUNT OF FREEZING PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH FRESH SNOW FALLING TONIGHT /HOPEFULLY HELPING TO
MAKE A CRUSTY COVER ON THE ROADS WHEN THE FREEZING PRECIP
FALLS...THUS KEEPING THE ROADS FROM BECOMING AS SLICK/...AND THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING PRECIP BEING VERY DEPENDENT ON ROAD
SURFACE TREATMENT AND CLEARING OF THE SNOW OFF THE ROADS...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OVER THE ERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA THAT
MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP IS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS SSE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...BUT AM
LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA AND THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER
THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE ERN
U.P. AND THE NRN KEWEENAW SAT AFTERNOON...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LOW PRES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LIFTING TO THE NE
TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF SAT NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST 850-600 MB
FGEN WILL INCREASE LATE INTO WRN UPPER MI AND INTO THE REST OF THE
CWA SUN MORNING. AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR -12C OVER THE WEST
BY 12Z/SUN TO -18C BY 00Z/MON...LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...850-700 MB DRYING
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR TWO. OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...THE FGEN DYNAMICS COULD
ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...VERY COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NRN LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z-18Z/MON. EVEN WITH
STRONG OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES ABOVE 750 J/KG) THE
DRY AIRMASS AND VERY SHALLOW DGZ WILL SUPPORT MAINLY JUST MODERATE
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WNW FLOW SNOW BELTS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-WED...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW WAS INCLUDED AS THE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...PER COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -16C ON WED.

THU-FRI...MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS WERE
LARGER AS THE GFS BRINGS A SHRTWV THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WHILE THE
ECMWF ALSO PUSHES A NRN STREAM SHRTWV THROUGH THE WRN LAKE THAT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

AS MORE LLVL MSTR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THRU THE NGT IN A LLVL
SE VEERING SSW WIND...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT IWD WL SLOW THE LOWERING CIGS...BUT EVEN
THERE SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATE AT NGT. THE BEST CHC FOR LOWER
IFR AND EVEN LIFR CIGS LATER ON WL BE AT SAW...WHERE THE LLVL WIND
WL PRESENT AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALSO BRING
ABOUT THE CHC FOR SOME -SN AND EVEN SOME -FZDZ LATER ON WITH A DVLPG
ELEVATED WARM LYR. THIS -FZDZ COULD IMPACT CMX AS WELL ON SAT...BUT
RISING TEMPS ABOVE 32 IN THE CONTINUED SLY FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A
CHANGE TO JUST -DZ LATER ON AS CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT SAW
WITH A VEERING FLOW TO A LESS FVRBL SW DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH
RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON
AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS





000
FXUS63 KMQT 282353
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
653 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

COMPLEX SHORT TERM...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE DURING TRANSITIONS FROM
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN CWA
TODAY AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SERN CWA. THE SNOW IS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN AND IN AN AREA OF WAA. GENERALLY UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW. ADDITIONAL
MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W/WSW OF THE CWA MORE TOWARD
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL MAINLY MOVE ALONG AND S OF THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ATTENTION TURNS TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS SLY WINDS BRING AN LES BAND NOW ARCHING TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...UPSLOPE/ONSHORE S-SSE
FLOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY E OF A LINE
FROM SAWYER TO MENOMINEE. DO NOT THIS THIS BAND WILL DROP AS MUCH
SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO MODELS SHOWING THE
BAND BEING MORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND ALSO WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME. HAVE
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT AS AN 800-900MB WARM
NOSE WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVES IN FROM THE SW. PRECIP AT THIS
POINT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WAA CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A NARROW AREA OF PRECIP AT OR S OF
MENOMINEE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND
RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF PTYPE TRANSITION. NATURALLY LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS PRECIP WILL OCCUR. PRECIP MAY
INITIALLY BE SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT. IF THAT BAND DOES
SET UP OVER MENOMINEE...GREATER AMOUNTS OF INITIALLY SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH FREEZING PRECIP IS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY NEAR
AND E OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY...WHERE FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING AS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COMES TO AN
END. TRANSITION WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO 12Z OVER THE ERN U.P. EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S SAT...ROAD SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S WILL LEAD TO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON
CONTACT WITH UNTREATED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BARE ROADS AND ROADS
COVERED IN HARD PACKED SNOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FROM FREEZING
PRECIP IS ON ROAD/SIDEWALKS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON AMOUNT OF FREEZING PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH FRESH SNOW FALLING TONIGHT /HOPEFULLY HELPING TO
MAKE A CRUSTY COVER ON THE ROADS WHEN THE FREEZING PRECIP
FALLS...THUS KEEPING THE ROADS FROM BECOMING AS SLICK/...AND THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING PRECIP BEING VERY DEPENDENT ON ROAD
SURFACE TREATMENT AND CLEARING OF THE SNOW OFF THE ROADS...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OVER THE ERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA THAT
MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP IS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS SSE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...BUT AM
LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA AND THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER
THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE ERN
U.P. AND THE NRN KEWEENAW SAT AFTERNOON...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LOW PRES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LIFTING TO THE NE
TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF SAT NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST 850-600 MB
FGEN WILL INCREASE LATE INTO WRN UPPER MI AND INTO THE REST OF THE
CWA SUN MORNING. AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR -12C OVER THE WEST
BY 12Z/SUN TO -18C BY 00Z/MON...LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...850-700 MB DRYING
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR TWO. OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...THE FGEN DYNAMICS COULD
ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...VERY COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NRN LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z-18Z/MON. EVEN WITH
STRONG OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES ABOVE 750 J/KG) THE
DRY AIRMASS AND VERY SHALLOW DGZ WILL SUPPORT MAINLY JUST MODERATE
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WNW FLOW SNOW BELTS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-WED...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW WAS INCLUDED AS THE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...PER COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -16C ON WED.

THU-FRI...MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS WERE
LARGER AS THE GFS BRINGS A SHRTWV THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WHILE THE
ECMWF ALSO PUSHES A NRN STREAM SHRTWV THROUGH THE WRN LAKE THAT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

AS MORE LLVL MSTR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THRU THE NGT IN A LLVL
SE VEERING SSW WIND...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THIS FLOW AT IWD WL SLOW THE LOWERING CIGS...BUT EVEN
THERE SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY LATE AT NGT. THE BEST CHC FOR LOWER
IFR AND EVEN LIFR CIGS LATER ON WL BE AT SAW...WHERE THE LLVL WIND
WL PRESENT AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALSO BRING
ABOUT THE CHC FOR SOME -SN AND EVEN SOME -FZDZ LATER ON WITH A DVLPG
ELEVATED WARM LYR. THIS -FZDZ COULD IMPACT CMX AS WELL ON SAT...BUT
RISING TEMPS ABOVE 32 IN THE CONTINUED SLY FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A
CHANGE TO JUST -DZ LATER ON AS CIGS RISE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT SAW
WITH A VEERING FLOW TO A LESS FVRBL SW DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH
RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON
AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS






000
FXUS63 KMQT 282045
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

COMPLEX SHORT TERM...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE DURING TRANSITIONS FROM
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN CWA
TODAY AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SERN CWA. THE SNOW IS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN AND IN AN AREA OF WAA. GENERALLY UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW. ADDITIONAL
MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W/WSW OF THE CWA MORE TOWARD
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL MAINLY MOVE ALONG AND S OF THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ATTENTION TURNS TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS SLY WINDS BRING AN LES BAND NOW ARCHING TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...UPSLOPE/ONSHORE S-SSE
FLOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY E OF A LINE
FROM SAWYER TO MENOMINEE. DO NOT THIS THIS BAND WILL DROP AS MUCH
SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO MODELS SHOWING THE
BAND BEING MORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND ALSO WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME. HAVE
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT AS AN 800-900MB WARM
NOSE WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVES IN FROM THE SW. PRECIP AT THIS
POINT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WAA CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A NARROW AREA OF PRECIP AT OR S OF
MENOMINEE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND
RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF PTYPE TRANSITION. NATURALLY LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS PRECIP WILL OCCUR. PRECIP MAY
INITIALLY BE SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT. IF THAT BAND DOES
SET UP OVER MENOMINEE...GREATER AMOUNTS OF INITIALLY SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH FREEZING PRECIP IS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY NEAR
AND E OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY...WHERE FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING AS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COMES TO AN
END. TRANSITION WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO 12Z OVER THE ERN U.P. EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S SAT...ROAD SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S WILL LEAD TO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON
CONTACT WITH UNTREATED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BARE ROADS AND ROADS
COVERED IN HARD PACKED SNOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FROM FREEZING
PRECIP IS ON ROAD/SIDEWALKS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON AMOUNT OF FREEZING PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH FRESH SNOW FALLING TONIGHT /HOPEFULLY HELPING TO
MAKE A CRUSTY COVER ON THE ROADS WHEN THE FREEZING PRECIP
FALLS...THUS KEEPING THE ROADS FROM BECOMING AS SLICK/...AND THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING PRECIP BEING VERY DEPENDENT ON ROAD
SURFACE TREATMENT AND CLEARING OF THE SNOW OFF THE ROADS...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OVER THE ERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA THAT
MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP IS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS SSE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...BUT AM
LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA AND THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER
THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE ERN
U.P. AND THE NRN KEWEENAW SAT AFTERNOON...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LOW PRES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LIFTING TO THE NE
TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF SAT NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST 850-600 MB
FGEN WILL INCREASE LATE INTO WRN UPPER MI AND INTO THE REST OF THE
CWA SUN MORNING. AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR -12C OVER THE WEST
BY 12Z/SUN TO -18C BY 00Z/MON...LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...850-700 MB DRYING
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR TWO. OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...THE FGEN DYNAMICS COULD
ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...VERY COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NRN LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z-18Z/MON. EVEN WITH
STRONG OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES ABOVE 750 J/KG) THE
DRY AIRMASS AND VERY SHALLOW DGZ WILL SUPPORT MAINLY JUST MODERATE
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WNW FLOW SNOW BELTS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-WED...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW WAS INCLUDED AS THE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...PER COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -16C ON WED.

THU-FRI...MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS WERE
LARGER AS THE GFS BRINGS A SHRTWV THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WHILE THE
ECMWF ALSO PUSHES A NRN STREAM SHRTWV THROUGH THE WRN LAKE THAT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

AT IWD...SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. -FZDZ MAY START EARLY
SAT...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE OR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

AT CMX...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO -FZDZ.
WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FZDZ IN THE FORECAST...BUT AM
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST.

AT SAW...COMPLEX FORECAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
LEAD TO WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SAT...BUT AM UNSURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG
IT WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH
RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON
AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 282045
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

COMPLEX SHORT TERM...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE DURING TRANSITIONS FROM
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN CWA
TODAY AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SERN CWA. THE SNOW IS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN AND IN AN AREA OF WAA. GENERALLY UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW. ADDITIONAL
MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W/WSW OF THE CWA MORE TOWARD
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL MAINLY MOVE ALONG AND S OF THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ATTENTION TURNS TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS SLY WINDS BRING AN LES BAND NOW ARCHING TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...UPSLOPE/ONSHORE S-SSE
FLOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY E OF A LINE
FROM SAWYER TO MENOMINEE. DO NOT THIS THIS BAND WILL DROP AS MUCH
SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO MODELS SHOWING THE
BAND BEING MORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND ALSO WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME. HAVE
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT AS AN 800-900MB WARM
NOSE WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVES IN FROM THE SW. PRECIP AT THIS
POINT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WAA CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A NARROW AREA OF PRECIP AT OR S OF
MENOMINEE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND
RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF PTYPE TRANSITION. NATURALLY LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS PRECIP WILL OCCUR. PRECIP MAY
INITIALLY BE SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT. IF THAT BAND DOES
SET UP OVER MENOMINEE...GREATER AMOUNTS OF INITIALLY SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH FREEZING PRECIP IS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY NEAR
AND E OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY...WHERE FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING AS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COMES TO AN
END. TRANSITION WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO 12Z OVER THE ERN U.P. EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S SAT...ROAD SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S WILL LEAD TO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON
CONTACT WITH UNTREATED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BARE ROADS AND ROADS
COVERED IN HARD PACKED SNOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FROM FREEZING
PRECIP IS ON ROAD/SIDEWALKS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON AMOUNT OF FREEZING PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH FRESH SNOW FALLING TONIGHT /HOPEFULLY HELPING TO
MAKE A CRUSTY COVER ON THE ROADS WHEN THE FREEZING PRECIP
FALLS...THUS KEEPING THE ROADS FROM BECOMING AS SLICK/...AND THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING PRECIP BEING VERY DEPENDENT ON ROAD
SURFACE TREATMENT AND CLEARING OF THE SNOW OFF THE ROADS...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OVER THE ERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA THAT
MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP IS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS SSE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...BUT AM
LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA AND THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER
THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE ERN
U.P. AND THE NRN KEWEENAW SAT AFTERNOON...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...LOW PRES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LIFTING TO THE NE
TO JAMES BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR ERN CWA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF SAT NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST 850-600 MB
FGEN WILL INCREASE LATE INTO WRN UPPER MI AND INTO THE REST OF THE
CWA SUN MORNING. AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR -12C OVER THE WEST
BY 12Z/SUN TO -18C BY 00Z/MON...LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE FOR NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...850-700 MB DRYING
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR TWO. OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...THE FGEN DYNAMICS COULD
ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...VERY COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NRN LAKES
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C BY 12Z-18Z/MON. EVEN WITH
STRONG OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (LAKE INDUCED CAPES ABOVE 750 J/KG) THE
DRY AIRMASS AND VERY SHALLOW DGZ WILL SUPPORT MAINLY JUST MODERATE
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR WNW FLOW SNOW BELTS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-WED...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW WAS INCLUDED AS THE DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...PER COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
TO AROUND -16C ON WED.

THU-FRI...MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS WERE
LARGER AS THE GFS BRINGS A SHRTWV THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WHILE THE
ECMWF ALSO PUSHES A NRN STREAM SHRTWV THROUGH THE WRN LAKE THAT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

AT IWD...SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. -FZDZ MAY START EARLY
SAT...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE OR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

AT CMX...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO -FZDZ.
WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FZDZ IN THE FORECAST...BUT AM
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST.

AT SAW...COMPLEX FORECAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
LEAD TO WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SAT...BUT AM UNSURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG
IT WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH
RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON
AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
249 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

COMPLEX SHORT TERM...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE DURING TRANSITIONS FROM
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN CWA
TODAY AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SERN CWA. THE SNOW IS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN AND IN AN AREA OF WAA. GENERALLY UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW. ADDITIONAL
MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W/WSW OF THE CWA MORE TOWARD
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL MAINLY MOVE ALONG AND S OF THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ATTENTION TURNS TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS SLY WINDS BRING AN LES BAND NOW ARCHING TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...UPSLOPE/ONSHORE S-SSE
FLOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY E OF A LINE
FROM SAWYER TO MENOMINEE. DO NOT THIS THIS BAND WILL DROP AS MUCH
SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO MODELS SHOWING THE
BAND BEING MORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND ALSO WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME. HAVE
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT AS AN 800-900MB WARM
NOSE WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVES IN FROM THE SW. PRECIP AT THIS
POINT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WAA CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A NARROW AREA OF PRECIP AT OR S OF
MENOMINEE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND
RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF PTYPE TRANSITION. NATURALLY LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS PRECIP WILL OCCUR. PRECIP MAY
INITIALLY BE SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT. IF THAT BAND DOES
SET UP OVER MENOMINEE...GREATER AMOUNTS OF INITIALLY SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH FREEZING PRECIP IS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY NEAR
AND E OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY...WHERE FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING AS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COMES TO AN
END. TRANSITION WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO 12Z OVER THE ERN U.P. EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S SAT...ROAD SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S WILL LEAD TO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON
CONTACT WITH UNTREATED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BARE ROADS AND ROADS
COVERED IN HARD PACKED SNOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FROM FREEZING
PRECIP IS ON ROAD/SIDEWALKS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON AMOUNT OF FREEZING PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH FRESH SNOW FALLING TONIGHT /HOPEFULLY HELPING TO
MAKE A CRUSTY COVER ON THE ROADS WHEN THE FREEZING PRECIP
FALLS...THUS KEEPING THE ROADS FROM BECOMING AS SLICK/...AND THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING PRECIP BEING VERY DEPENDENT ON ROAD
SURFACE TREATMENT AND CLEARING OF THE SNOW OFF THE ROADS...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OVER THE ERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA THAT
MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP IS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS SSE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...BUT AM
LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA AND THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER
THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE ERN
U.P. AND THE NRN KEWEENAW SAT AFTERNOON...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

AT IWD...SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. -FZDZ MAY START EARLY
SAT...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE OR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

AT CMX...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO -FZDZ.
WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FZDZ IN THE FORECAST...BUT AM
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST.

AT SAW...COMPLEX FORECAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
LEAD TO WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SAT...BUT AM UNSURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG
IT WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH
RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON
AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
249 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

COMPLEX SHORT TERM...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE DURING TRANSITIONS FROM
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW HAS BEEN TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN CWA
TODAY AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SERN CWA. THE SNOW IS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MN AND IN AN AREA OF WAA. GENERALLY UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW. ADDITIONAL
MORE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED W/WSW OF THE CWA MORE TOWARD
THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL MAINLY MOVE ALONG AND S OF THE WI BORDER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ATTENTION TURNS TO AREAS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS SLY WINDS BRING AN LES BAND NOW ARCHING TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...UPSLOPE/ONSHORE S-SSE
FLOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY E OF A LINE
FROM SAWYER TO MENOMINEE. DO NOT THIS THIS BAND WILL DROP AS MUCH
SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE TO MODELS SHOWING THE
BAND BEING MORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND ALSO WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME. HAVE
AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

THINGS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED LATE TONIGHT AS AN 800-900MB WARM
NOSE WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVES IN FROM THE SW. PRECIP AT THIS
POINT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
LIGHT/ISOLATED PRECIP IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WAA CONTINUES.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS SHOW A NARROW AREA OF PRECIP AT OR S OF
MENOMINEE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND
RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF PTYPE TRANSITION. NATURALLY LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS PRECIP WILL OCCUR. PRECIP MAY
INITIALLY BE SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ DRIES OUT. IF THAT BAND DOES
SET UP OVER MENOMINEE...GREATER AMOUNTS OF INITIALLY SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH FREEZING PRECIP IS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY NEAR
AND E OF A LINE FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY...WHERE FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING AS LAKE EFFECT PRECIP COMES TO AN
END. TRANSITION WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO 12Z OVER THE ERN U.P. EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S SAT...ROAD SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S WILL LEAD TO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON
CONTACT WITH UNTREATED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BARE ROADS AND ROADS
COVERED IN HARD PACKED SNOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FROM FREEZING
PRECIP IS ON ROAD/SIDEWALKS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON AMOUNT OF FREEZING PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS. WITH FRESH SNOW FALLING TONIGHT /HOPEFULLY HELPING TO
MAKE A CRUSTY COVER ON THE ROADS WHEN THE FREEZING PRECIP
FALLS...THUS KEEPING THE ROADS FROM BECOMING AS SLICK/...AND THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING PRECIP BEING VERY DEPENDENT ON ROAD
SURFACE TREATMENT AND CLEARING OF THE SNOW OFF THE ROADS...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT OVER THE ERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA THAT
MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF FREEZING PRECIP IS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AS SSE WINDS UPSLOPE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...BUT AM
LESS CERTAIN IN THIS AREA AND THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN OVER
THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE ERN
U.P. AND THE NRN KEWEENAW SAT AFTERNOON...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

AT IWD...SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. -FZDZ MAY START EARLY
SAT...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE OR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

AT CMX...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO -FZDZ.
WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FZDZ IN THE FORECAST...BUT AM
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST.

AT SAW...COMPLEX FORECAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
LEAD TO WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SAT...BUT AM UNSURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG
IT WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY
SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH
RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON
AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281745
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS W AND SW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
QUITE COLD WITH MANY PLACES OVER THE WEST STILL BELOW ZERO.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
BETTER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NWP GENERALLY
AGREE THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. GIVEN THAT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...EXPECT
THERE TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF OF PCPN TO THE NORTH...WITH AREAS
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY SEEING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW
WILL SEE SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY WINDS TURN SE...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL
AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF SOME ENHANCEMENT DOES
OCCUR...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY.

A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY FOR DELTA...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY COLD 850MB TEMPS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SOUTH-SE FLOW. THE NAM...GEM
AND THE NCEP ARW AND NMM RUNS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE /OR IF/ THEY WILL SET UP OVER ANY
ONE PLACE. IN FACT...THE MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP BANDING BUT KEEP IT
SHIFTING AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
ACTUALLY SEEMS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE GIVEN THE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 5000 FT...WHILE THE OVERALL PBL WINDS BACK WITH TIME AS THE
850MB WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. BY 00Z TONIGHT...THE RAP...NAM
AND GEM SHOW THE 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE DUE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE
VERY LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE OVER DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND THE
HIGHER RES NWP EVEN IMPLY THAT ESC MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
ACROSS DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREAS SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH SHIFTING WINDS AND NO INDICATION
OF ANY DOMINATE BANDING DEVELOPING...WILL OPT TO JUST GO WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW IN SOCIAL MEDIA
AVENUES.

OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY REMAINING PCPN TO TURN TO LIQUID CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND AS SUCH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT COATING OF GLAZE EITHER FROM
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE 00Z NAM AND GEM SUGGESTED A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL 850MB WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THIS AND IN FACT THE 06Z
NAM HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...AS
MENTIONED THERE COULD BE A FEW SLIPPERY SPOTS SAT MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

AT IWD...SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING. -FZDZ MAY START EARLY
SAT...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE OR HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

AT CMX...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO -FZDZ.
WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FZDZ IN THE FORECAST...BUT AM
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST.

AT SAW...COMPLEX FORECAST AS UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
LEAD TO WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SAT...BUT AM UNSURE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE AND HOW LONG
IT WILL PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES
THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...MRD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS W AND SW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
QUITE COLD WITH MANY PLACES OVER THE WEST STILL BELOW ZERO.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
BETTER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NWP GENERALLY
AGREE THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. GIVEN THAT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...EXPECT
THERE TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF OF PCPN TO THE NORTH...WITH AREAS
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY SEEING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW
WILL SEE SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY WINDS TURN SE...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL
AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF SOME ENHANCEMENT DOES
OCCUR...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY.

A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY FOR DELTA...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY COLD 850MB TEMPS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SOUTH-SE FLOW. THE NAM...GEM
AND THE NCEP ARW AND NMM RUNS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE /OR IF/ THEY WILL SET UP OVER ANY
ONE PLACE. IN FACT...THE MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP BANDING BUT KEEP IT
SHIFTING AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
ACTUALLY SEEMS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE GIVEN THE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 5000 FT...WHILE THE OVERALL PBL WINDS BACK WITH TIME AS THE
850MB WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. BY 00Z TONIGHT...THE RAP...NAM
AND GEM SHOW THE 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE DUE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE
VERY LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE OVER DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND THE
HIGHER RES NWP EVEN IMPLY THAT ESC MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
ACROSS DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREAS SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH SHIFTING WINDS AND NO INDICATION
OF ANY DOMINATE BANDING DEVELOPING...WILL OPT TO JUST GO WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW IN SOCIAL MEDIA
AVENUES.

OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY REMAINING PCPN TO TURN TO LIQUID CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND AS SUCH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT COATING OF GLAZE EITHER FROM
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE 00Z NAM AND GEM SUGGESTED A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL 850MB WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THIS AND IN FACT THE 06Z
NAM HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...AS
MENTIONED THERE COULD BE A FEW SLIPPERY SPOTS SAT MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING
AT IWD THIS MORNING THEN SPREADING EAST TO CMX AND SAW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WINDS TURN SSE
TONIGHT...CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR AT SAW ALTHOUGH CMX AND IWD WILL STAY
MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES
THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS W AND SW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
QUITE COLD WITH MANY PLACES OVER THE WEST STILL BELOW ZERO.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
BETTER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NWP GENERALLY
AGREE THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. GIVEN THAT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...EXPECT
THERE TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF OF PCPN TO THE NORTH...WITH AREAS
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY SEEING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW
WILL SEE SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY WINDS TURN SE...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL
AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF SOME ENHANCEMENT DOES
OCCUR...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY.

A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY FOR DELTA...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY COLD 850MB TEMPS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SOUTH-SE FLOW. THE NAM...GEM
AND THE NCEP ARW AND NMM RUNS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE /OR IF/ THEY WILL SET UP OVER ANY
ONE PLACE. IN FACT...THE MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP BANDING BUT KEEP IT
SHIFTING AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
ACTUALLY SEEMS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE GIVEN THE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 5000 FT...WHILE THE OVERALL PBL WINDS BACK WITH TIME AS THE
850MB WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. BY 00Z TONIGHT...THE RAP...NAM
AND GEM SHOW THE 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE DUE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE
VERY LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE OVER DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND THE
HIGHER RES NWP EVEN IMPLY THAT ESC MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
ACROSS DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREAS SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH SHIFTING WINDS AND NO INDICATION
OF ANY DOMINATE BANDING DEVELOPING...WILL OPT TO JUST GO WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW IN SOCIAL MEDIA
AVENUES.

OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY REMAINING PCPN TO TURN TO LIQUID CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND AS SUCH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT COATING OF GLAZE EITHER FROM
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE 00Z NAM AND GEM SUGGESTED A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL 850MB WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THIS AND IN FACT THE 06Z
NAM HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...AS
MENTIONED THERE COULD BE A FEW SLIPPERY SPOTS SAT MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING
AT IWD THIS MORNING THEN SPREADING EAST TO CMX AND SAW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WINDS TURN SSE
TONIGHT...CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR AT SAW ALTHOUGH CMX AND IWD WILL STAY
MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES
THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS W AND SW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
QUITE COLD WITH MANY PLACES OVER THE WEST STILL BELOW ZERO.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
BETTER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NWP GENERALLY
AGREE THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. GIVEN THAT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...EXPECT
THERE TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF OF PCPN TO THE NORTH...WITH AREAS
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY SEEING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW
WILL SEE SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY WINDS TURN SE...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL
AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF SOME ENHANCEMENT DOES
OCCUR...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY.

A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY FOR DELTA...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY COLD 850MB TEMPS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SOUTH-SE FLOW. THE NAM...GEM
AND THE NCEP ARW AND NMM RUNS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE /OR IF/ THEY WILL SET UP OVER ANY
ONE PLACE. IN FACT...THE MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP BANDING BUT KEEP IT
SHIFTING AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
ACTUALLY SEEMS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE GIVEN THE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 5000 FT...WHILE THE OVERALL PBL WINDS BACK WITH TIME AS THE
850MB WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. BY 00Z TONIGHT...THE RAP...NAM
AND GEM SHOW THE 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE DUE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE
VERY LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE OVER DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND THE
HIGHER RES NWP EVEN IMPLY THAT ESC MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
ACROSS DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREAS SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH SHIFTING WINDS AND NO INDICATION
OF ANY DOMINATE BANDING DEVELOPING...WILL OPT TO JUST GO WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW IN SOCIAL MEDIA
AVENUES.

OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY REMAINING PCPN TO TURN TO LIQUID CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND AS SUCH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT COATING OF GLAZE EITHER FROM
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE 00Z NAM AND GEM SUGGESTED A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL 850MB WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THIS AND IN FACT THE 06Z
NAM HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...AS
MENTIONED THERE COULD BE A FEW SLIPPERY SPOTS SAT MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES
THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD








000
FXUS63 KMQT 280919
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES ACROSS ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND NORTH THIS
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS W AND SW AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
QUITE COLD WITH MANY PLACES OVER THE WEST STILL BELOW ZERO.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. MUCH OF THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
BETTER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NWP GENERALLY
AGREE THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. GIVEN THAT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER...EXPECT
THERE TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF OF PCPN TO THE NORTH...WITH AREAS
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY SEEING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW
WILL SEE SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY WINDS TURN SE...BUT THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL
AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. EVEN IF SOME ENHANCEMENT DOES
OCCUR...EXPECT IT TO BE VERY SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY.

A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY FOR DELTA...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY COLD 850MB TEMPS
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SOUTH-SE FLOW. THE NAM...GEM
AND THE NCEP ARW AND NMM RUNS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT BANDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE /OR IF/ THEY WILL SET UP OVER ANY
ONE PLACE. IN FACT...THE MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP BANDING BUT KEEP IT
SHIFTING AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
ACTUALLY SEEMS SOMEWHAT REASONABLE GIVEN THE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 5000 FT...WHILE THE OVERALL PBL WINDS BACK WITH TIME AS THE
850MB WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. BY 00Z TONIGHT...THE RAP...NAM
AND GEM SHOW THE 1000-850MB WINDS WILL BE DUE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THE
VERY LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST SNOW WILL BE OVER DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND THE
HIGHER RES NWP EVEN IMPLY THAT ESC MAY SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL OPT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
ACROSS DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THIS AREAS SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. CONTEMPLATED
ISSUING AN ADVISORY...HOWEVER WITH SHIFTING WINDS AND NO INDICATION
OF ANY DOMINATE BANDING DEVELOPING...WILL OPT TO JUST GO WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW IN SOCIAL MEDIA
AVENUES.

OTHERWISE...THE WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW 850MB
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY REMAINING PCPN TO TURN TO LIQUID CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND AS SUCH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT COATING OF GLAZE EITHER FROM
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE 00Z NAM AND GEM SUGGESTED A
SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL 850MB WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT INDICATE THIS AND IN FACT THE 06Z
NAM HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE
WITH MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...AS
MENTIONED THERE COULD BE A FEW SLIPPERY SPOTS SAT MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW 20-25 KT. THE FRONT MOVES
THOUGH SUNDAY...WHILE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW NW GALES TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH RAPIDLY SHIFTS OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF RESPITE OF GALES MON AFTN INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY
GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MRD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280837
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280837
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW 12Z SAT WITH THE UPPER
FLOW BEING ZONAL OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH HEADS EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 12Z SUN AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN
NIGHT. COLD AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FALLING THEN. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SUN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO BRING
THE COLDER AIR IN QUICKER FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THIS. WILL ALSO KEEP MIXED PCPN IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WITH VERY
COLD AIR 12Z MON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
DOWN TO AROUND -28C AT THAT TIME. THEY QUICKLY MODIFY WITH THE
TROUGH PASSING OFF TO THE EAST 12Z TUE WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z THU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE WITH SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE IN THERE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
VERY COLD AND THEN MODIFY WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 280452
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280452
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT N OF KCMX IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO...RESULTING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. TODAY...AREA OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF
-SN...IT APPEARS KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KIWD/KSAW...AND LIGHT UPSLOPE S/SE WINDS AT KSAW COULD EVEN RESULT
IN CIGS FALLING TO IFR THIS EVENING. -SN MAY STAY S OF KCMX...SO FOR
NOW...PLAN TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX THRU THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME FLURRIES FOR A FEW HRS LATE IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 272351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED N OF KIWD. AT KSAW/KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AT KCMX...BACKING WINDS SHOULD SHIFT -SHSN
N OF KCMX AROUND 06Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCNL
IFR. ON FRI...BAND OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF -SN....
KIWD/KSAW ARE MORE LIKELY THAN KCMX TO SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 272351
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED N OF KIWD. AT KSAW/KIWD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. AT KCMX...BACKING WINDS SHOULD SHIFT -SHSN
N OF KCMX AROUND 06Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCNL
IFR. ON FRI...BAND OF -SN WILL STREAK ESE THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EXTENT OF -SN....
KIWD/KSAW ARE MORE LIKELY THAN KCMX TO SEE SOME -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
438 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...CONVERGENT SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C DURING THE EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYNOPTIC SNOW REMAINS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS SRN UPPER MI FROM RAPID RIVER EASTWARD. SFC LOW PRES IS
FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CONTINUED WAA BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K
ISENTROPIC PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE POSITION OF THE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT THROUGH
850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE...MENTIONED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN.
WITH A PROMINENT WARM LAYER DEVELOPING...MOST PCPN THAT OCCURS WOULD
BE FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...IF THE DRY LAYER REMAINS SOME -FZDZ
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BY SAT AFTERNOON WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA...ENDING THE FREEZING PCPN THREAT.

SAT NIGHT INTO MON...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD
PERSIST DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS LOW LEVEL RH FCST IS
MARGINAL. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C BY
00Z/MON AND EVEN TO AROUND -26C BY 12Z/MON...LES WILL BE LIKELY FOR
NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH A VERY SHALLOW DGZ IN THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS. THE LES SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW.

TUE-THU...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME WNW FLOW LES MAY
DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY THE 06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
THAT BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND SNOW INTO UPPER MI WAS AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE PARALLEL 13KM
GFS. THE MORE CONSISTENT...ECMWF WITH A LINGERING TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WOULD KEEP SOME WNW FLOW LES GOING ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WAA DEVELOPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 272041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272041
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WIND LES HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC
OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE WRN LAKE AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES IN. FLOW SHOULD BACK TO THE
SW FROM W TO E BY 12Z FRI...WITH LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
COMING TO AN END BY THEN. WHILE THERE ARE THREE NOTABLY STRONGER
BANDS THAT ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS...HOUGHTON AND NEAR AU TRAIN...THESE BANDS WILL BE MORE
TRANSIENT AS WINDS SHIFT...SO NO PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
ANY ONE LOCATION.

TEMPS SHOULD GET PRETTY COLD OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL TONIGHT AS
THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...BUT AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THEY
MOVE IN TEMPS MAY NOT FALL AS MUCH. HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF -10F
AT PEAVY FALLS...A TYPICAL COLD SPOT OVER THE SCENTRAL.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER S WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP...INCLUDING THE NCEP HIGH RES WRF ARW AND NMM WHICH KEEP
ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP S OF THE CWA...SO SHOWED THE SRN TREND IN THE
FORECAST BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE NCEP WRF RUNS SHOWED. THIS
RESULTED IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP AND SHARPER GRADIENT S TO
N. SNOW WILL QUICKLY GRAZE MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF UPPER MI...OVER
THE WRN HALF FRI MORNING AND CENTRAL AND E ON FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKS
LIKE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE WI BORDER AND ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN UPPER PENINSULA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR E OF NEWBERRY DEPENDING ON THE WIND
DIRECTION. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP A LES BAND E OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z SAT...OR JUST START TO BRING IT INTO NEWBERRY JUST BEFORE 00Z
SAT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...WHICH MAY
BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ERN
UPPER MI /SEE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271740
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT IWD AND
CMX AS LES DIMINISHES DUE TO INCOMING DRY AIR. SAW SHOULD SEE CIGS
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SCT CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING.

ALL SITES WILL SEE DIMINISHING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI AS A
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING SNOW AT
ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TODAY AT TAF SITES. WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N
WIND...IWD WL SEE A LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER...THE LLVL WINDS WL
BACK TOWARD THE WNW EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD. MORE UPSLOPE WRLY WIND
AT CMX BY THIS AFTERNOON MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NW WINDS BACKING TO S-SW
TONIGHT AT KSAW SHOULD CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THERE THRU THE
PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271151
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
651 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TODAY AT TAF SITES. WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N
WIND...IWD WL SEE A LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER...THE LLVL WINDS WL
BACK TOWARD THE WNW EARLY THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD. MORE UPSLOPE WRLY WIND
AT CMX BY THIS AFTERNOON MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE MUCH OF THIS EVENING. NW WINDS BACKING TO S-SW
TONIGHT AT KSAW SHOULD CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS THERE THRU THE
PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
557 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271057
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
557 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEAL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W COAST AND A TROF EXTENDING
FROM NCNTRL CANADA INTO THE ERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME -SN OVER NCNTRL WI AND PERHAPS
PROVIDING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE
THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI. COLD AND VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AS
NOTED ON 00Z KINL SNDG AND MINUS TEENS TO MINUS 20S DEWPOINTS OVER
WRN ONTARIO AND NRN MN WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE.

TODAY...MODEL SNDGS SHOW SHARP LOWERING OF INVERSION BASES BLO 4KFT
AS Q-VECT DIV SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO BCMS MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY WHICH IN TURN WILL WEAKEN LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LES
FROM W TO E THRU THE DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT LES TO END
LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSITIVE
FACTOR FOR THE LES S THAT THE DGZ IS FIRMLY SITUATED THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER ALLOWING FOR FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE
WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO STILL GET 3-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY
PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE NW FETCH MAY BE HELPED BY LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TODAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FM 10 TO 15F OVER THE WEST
HALF...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND E. RECORD LOW MAX
TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP DOESN`T REACH
14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON.

TONIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR
ERN SHORELINE PORTION OF CWA AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BACK SW. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DURING THE
EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST LATE
WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN...SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO
SLIGHT CHC.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW
WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...VOSS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 271015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROUGHING BRINGING THE WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY EXITS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF PACIFIC NW HEADS EAST AND WILL SUPPORT
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE
SFC-H85. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WHERE SHARPEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...BUT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF UPR MICHIGAN
SEES WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH A BIT MORE QUESTION ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
IF BAND OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SLIDES NORTHWARD THEN COULD SEE
AMOUNTS NEARING ADVY ALONG THE WI BORDER AND NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN STILL IS OVER
EASTERN CWA THOUGH...SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MICHIGAN AS THE LARGER SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH MEAN BLRY SSW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS
LOWER THAN -10C...PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH LK
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS AROUND UP TO 4C. IF THE FARTHER NORTH NAM IDEA
IS CORRECT WITH MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...THEN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR. BLEND OF OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING
THE FAVORED ECMWF/GEM-NH...POINT TO SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO AND HIGHLIGHT IN EHWO GRAPHICS...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH
ATTM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK OF INCOMING SYSTEM.

MESSY FORECAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OR MAYBE IT WILL
JUST END UP BENIGN. STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT...BUT ECMWF/GEM
AND TREND FROM GFS WOULD SUGGEST MORE DRIER IDEA. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
FARTHER NORTH WITH LARGER SCALE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
MOISTURE TIED INTO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS IN WHAT
LOOKS MORE LIKE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. H85 TEMPS QUITE WARM OFF THE
ECMWF WITH +8C...YES PLUS 8...INTO SCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
SUNDAY. GEM EVEN WARMER AND THE NAM/GFS IN THE BALLPARK AS WELL.
EVEN WITH THE WARMTH...SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM/GFS SUGGEST THE ONLY
KIND OF PRECIP OCCURRING...IF ANY...WOULD BE DRIZZLE AS ONLY MOISTURE
IS BLO H85 WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN RETURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST CWA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SFC LOW PASSES BY AND A
COLD FRONT RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DZ/FZDZ
IDEA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NOW IF THIS FORECAST OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TURNS
OUT TO BE OVERDONE AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST...THEN SATURDAY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP BEING AN NICE DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H9 VALUES OFF THE GFS WOULD YIELD LOW 40S
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT WITH THE LOW CLOUD/DZ IDEA AND
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...PRETTY QUICK DROP
OFF IN TEMPS AT H85. ECMWF SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND PROBABLY IS MORE
ON TRACK GIVEN THE FARTHER NORTH TREND OF WARMER AIR TO START THE
WEEKEND. EVEN SO...ENOUGH COLD AIR BY SUNDAY AFTN TO START THE LAKE
EFFECT UP AGAIN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OR TWO OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. CORE OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY. H85 TEMPS A VERY
CHILLY -20C TO -24C...COLDEST ON THE GFS. AT LEAST LIGHT LES SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND EAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
MORE OVER THE PLAINS...SO PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT
LEADING TO SOME LOWER WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TEMPS
MODERATE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW BREAK OUT OVER REGION DUE TO THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION.
BEST CHANCE OF THAT LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 270627
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES
MOVING E FM THE NRN PLAINS...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES FM IFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE HRS TO PREDOMINANT MVFR.
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE/CONFLUENT N WIND...IWD WL SEE A
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF SHSN/IFR VSBYS. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING
DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK
TOWARD THE W BY LATE THIS AFTN AND THEN TO THE WSW THIS EVNG...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN AT IWD AND SAW.
BUT MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 262340
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
640 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN AND AT LEAST OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LO PRES TROF AND WSHFT TO A FVRBL
UPSLOPE N DIRECTION WL IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW INTO THE EARLY MRNG
HRS ON THANKSGIVING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/
DRYING BEHIND THE TROF RESULTS IN A STEADY IMPROVEMENT LATER TNGT/
THU MRNG. SINCE THE N WIND IS NOT A FAVORABLE WIND FOR CMX...MVFR/
ONLY OCNL IFR VSBYS WL BE THE RULE AT THAT TERMINAL. GUSTY N WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE WL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TNGT/EARLY THU
MRNG UNDER WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG HI
PRES RDG. AS THE HI AND ACCOMPANYING DRIER AIR EDGE CLOSER ON
THANKSGIVING...THE LLVL WINDS WL BACK TOWARD THE NW AND THEN THE
W... RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND SAW. BUT
MORE UPSLOPE WIND AT CMX MAY HOLD CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THAT
LOCATION THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 262338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB





000
FXUS63 KMQT 262338
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PERIODS OF HEAVIER LK EFFECT SN

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB






000
FXUS63 KMQT 262211
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 262211
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
511 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A
TROF EXTENDING FROM NCNTRL CANADA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING SE THRU NRN
ONTARIO/NRN MN IS PRODUCING SOME -SN FROM NW WI ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SHARPENING TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KIWD
TO JUST S OF KCMX AND THEN NE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MDT TO HVY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS SPREADING INTO WRN UPPER MI IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROF. OFF TO THE NW...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES ACROSS
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BUILDING S AND E INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES. BEST...MOST PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
INDICATED OVER THE FAR W. SO...MOST SUSTAINED MDT TO AT TIMES HVY
SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR W FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS TO KIWD. WITH
DGZ FALLING INTO THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE UPWARD MOTION IS FOCUSED...
EXPECT SNOW TO WATER RATIOS TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 TO 1 RANGE
TONIGHT. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE UPWARD MOTION IS ONLY DEPICTED
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING LITTLE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
COVERAGE OF HVY SNOW TO ONLY THE AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED. AS IT STANDS NOW...SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
WARNING EVENT WITH WARNING THRESHOLDS ONLY POTENTIALLY BEING MET IN
A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS (8 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS OR 12 OR MORE IN
24HRS). LARGE PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
FALL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL RANGE. OF NOTE...THERE IS A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO AFFECT LOCATIONS JUST W OF KIWD. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT INDEED DOES HAPPEN. OVER THE KEWEENAW...
SNOWFALL HAS NOT BEEN ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE
WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. WITH A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNAL LACKING TONIGHT...CONSIDERED
DROPPING ADVY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
STILL PICK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING. TO THE E...LONGER FETCH/BETTER TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI
SPREADING FROM BARAGA COUNTY/FAR NRN MARQUETTE COUNTY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO ALGER COUNTY LATE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE SOLID ADVY AMOUNTS
FROM THE HURON MTNS TO NEGAUNEE AND EAST INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALIZED WARNING AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
INCREASING SNOW TO WATER RATIOS AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF A LAKE NIPIGON
INITIATED DOMINANT BAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS THAT
WOULD LIKELY IMPACT LOCATIONS SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND BIG
BAY/MARQUETTE TO AROUND THE SHOT POINT AREA. IF SUCH A BAND DOES
DEVELOP AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HRS...WARNING AMOUNTS MAY
BE ACHIEVED. BLSN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE OPEN AREAS ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH. WHILE THERE MAY BE  A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER LUCE COUNTY WITH TROF PASSAGE...
SETUP AFTER TROF PASSAGE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN THAT AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...EXPECT SOME -SN FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. SOME OF THE LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REACH NRN DELTA
AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS AT A LOW 4KFT
TO START THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRENDS ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY SO OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N THRU WRN UPPER MI/WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z FRI. THESE 2 FACTORS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/QVECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AND WILL RESULT IN LES DIMINISHING FROM W TO E THRU THE
DAY. IN FACT OVER THE FAR W...LES WILL END LATE IN THE AFTN AROUND
KIWD AS FLOW BACKS SW. THE ONE POSTIVE FACTOR FOR THE LES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IS THAT THE DGZ WILL OCCUPY MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO FLUFF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO...DESPITE THE NEGATIVES
LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT LES ON THE WHOLE...MIGHT BE ABLE TO FLUFF UP
3-4 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE LES IS MOST PERSISTENT. THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR E OF MARQUETTE WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE
CYCLONIC THRU THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WHERE LAKE NIPIGON
PRECONDITIONING WILL COME INTO PLAY. AWAY FROM THE MAIN LES...
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS 850MB
THERMAL TROF (AROUND -20C) PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID TEENS...TO AROUND 20F ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR AND
E. RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT WILL FALL. IF TEMP
DOESN`T REACH 14F...IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MAX TEMP FOR SO EARLY IN
THE SEASON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB







000
FXUS63 KMQT 262048
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB








000
FXUS63 KMQT 262048
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SAT
NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI INTO SAT AHEAD
OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AND INCREASE TO GALES BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB









000
FXUS63 KMQT 262043
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 262043
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THU NIGHT...THE LINGERING LES WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
DURING THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MINS BELOW GUIDANCE
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEST
LATE WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

FRI...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAVORABLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 850-700 MB
FRONTAL ZONE. 3 G/KG MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE 285K-295K LAYER
DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MODELS CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES AND SLR VALUES FROM AROUND 15/1-20/1. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE 12Z
NAM BRINGS GREATER AMOUNTS OF PCPN INTO SRN UPPER MI COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE MI THAT COULD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NEAR
THE GARDEN PENINSULA INTO LUCE COUNTY. SINCE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL CONV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...SNOW AMOUNTS
IN ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THAT COULD ADD SEVERAL
INCHES TO THE SNOW TOTALS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...SFC LOW PRES IS FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CONTINUED WAA BRINGING
SUBSTANTIAL 850 MB WARMING. NAM/GFS 285-295K ISENTROPIC PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NRN UPPER MI. WITH A PROMINENT 850-700
MB DRY LAYER DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ICE NUCLEI BECOME
MORE SCARCE. ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. THERE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH
900-700 MB WARMING INTO THE AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR SOME
FZRA.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY SAT NIGHT
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NRN LAKES WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ON NW WINDS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -18C...LES
WILL BE LIKELY FOR NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL 850-700 MB DRYING WITH BACKING AND
INCREASING ACYC LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION
MON INTO MON NIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING LES. ANOTHER MID LEVEL AND
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING COLDER
ACROSS REGION THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN AS SNOW WITH MAX TEMPS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BY TUE AND WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261746
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1246 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 261746
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1246 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL SWING ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
AFTN/EVENING. INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS AS THE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BEGINNING LATEST AT
KSAW. AT KIWD/KCMX...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
PREVAILING CONDITION THIS AFTN...THOUGH SOME LIFR WILL OCCUR AS
WELL. WIND FLOW THIS EVENING WILL FAVOR KIWD FOR HEAVIEST
SNOW/LOWEST CONDITIONS...AND LIFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THERE THIS
EVENING WHILE KCMX REMAINS IFR. LOWERING INVERSION/DRYING AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATER IN THE PERIOD...
ALLOWING IMPOVEMENT TO VFR. AT KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN. WITH TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIFR. AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THU MORNING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT
MOSTLY E OF KSAW...ALLOWING IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261144
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY AFTN WITH AN INCOMING STRATUS DECK...FIRST AT
KCMX THEN AT KIWD. TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SINKS INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL
IFR VSBY EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX...BUT
FAVORABLE NORTH FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF LIFR OR EVEN BRIEF
VLIFR THIS EVENING AS HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS. KSAW WILL SEE CONDITIONS
TREND TO IFR IN MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...BUT
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 261144
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
644 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY AFTN WITH AN INCOMING STRATUS DECK...FIRST AT
KCMX THEN AT KIWD. TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SINKS INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL
IFR VSBY EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX...BUT
FAVORABLE NORTH FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO PERIOD OF LIFR OR EVEN BRIEF
VLIFR THIS EVENING AS HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS. KSAW WILL SEE CONDITIONS
TREND TO IFR IN MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...BUT
THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ARRIVES
OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 261118
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA









000
FXUS63 KMQT 261118
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDES SOUTH OVER LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 15-25KT
FRI INTO SAT AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH
20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA








000
FXUS63 KMQT 261112
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
612 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRES GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
20KT ACROSS THE LAKE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WED AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH THE TROF SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20-30KT FROM
NW TO SE WED/WED NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261112
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
612 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT FOR NORTH FLOW AREAS TONIGHT...

RAOBS AND WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. TWO MAIN JET CORES...A STRONG
NEAR 200 KT H3 JET RACING SW-NE FROM SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
QUEBEC AND ANOTHER 150 KT H3 JET DIVING NW-SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LEAD JET IS SUPPORTING THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE PLAINS JET IS SUPPORTING COMPACT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR OMAHA NEB PRODUCING SWATH OF PRECIP FM MN
INTO MO. FARTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE WORKING ALONG IN NORTHERN STREAM
PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO IS RESULING IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW
NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM ARE OVER DROPPING SE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND ALSO OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THOUGH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVR PLAINS STAYS SOUTH OF HERE...WEAK TROUGH IS EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IT WILL AFFECT WEATHER OVER UPR MICHIGAN TODAY. OTHER
MAIN SFC FEATURE IS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NOSING A RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO NORTH
OF LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO INTO NORTHERN PLAINS.

WEAK GRADIENT OVER UPR MICHIGAN AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 BLO OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA THIS MORNING. QUIET OVER THE AREA AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF KEWEENAW THANKS TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH SET
UP OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR. WEAK SRLY FLOW IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
INTO LK MICHIGAN ZONES AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CWA.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR TO SINK
SLOWLY OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST CWA THIS AFTN...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL
AFTER 21Z AT KIWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE/FORCING
SPREADS OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AS THE TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN
CANADA AND THE ONE JUST TO THE WEST OF HERE MOVE ACROSS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER UP TO H9 FOR FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES FOR
LES OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. BY 00Z OVER FAR WEST CWA...NNE WINDS
TO H9 WITH TEMPS NEAR -15C SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING CROSSES. SLR/S INCREASE TO 20:1 AS MOST LIFT IS
WITHIN DGZ. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH AFFECTS FM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IN THE EVENING FAR WEST...FROM IWD TO WHITE
PINE/PORCUPINE MTS. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE THE SHORTWAVES EXITS BY
MIDNIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS WITHIN
DGZ. SLR/S MAY REACH 30:1 AS WINDS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME. HIGH SLR/S COULD ALLOW FOR GOOD TACK ON SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF
FLUFFY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY...SETUP SEEMED
GOOD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON.
ONLY MARGINAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE KEWEENAW BUT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE
FLUFFY SNOW ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT ADVY TO COVER THE SNOW AND BLSN ON
A BUSIER THAN NORMAL TRAVEL DAY AHEAD OF THANKSGIVING.

TROUGH SINKS INTO NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THAT BRINGS
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LES INTO BARAGA AND NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUTNIES. SIMILAR TO FAR WEST CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABIILTY AND
UPSLOPE NNE FLOW SUPPORTED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES OVER BARAGA
COUNTY AND PUT OUT AN ADVY FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THAT. HEAVIEST SNOW
EXPECTED FOR L`ANSE AREA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAVORED HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY. CONTINUED THE ADVISORY FOR
MARQUETTE COUNTY THAT WAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT WITH THE
SHARPER LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THE TROUGH CONVERGENCE WILL
BE SYNCED UP WITH THE SHORTWAVE...SETUP SEEMED GOOD FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE HURON MTS TO NEGAUNEE AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SHORE AT MARQUETTE.
NNE WINDS DO BECOME NNW-NW FAIRLY QUICK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THOUGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER SNOW WOULD BE TOO LOW TO DO ANY
KIND OF UPGRADE TO MARQUETTE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD SNOW AROUND
INCH/HOUR RATES IN THE EVENING. WILD CARD FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY IS
THE STRONGER NRLY WINDS/BLSN. COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH VCNTY
OF MARQUETTE AND HARVEY LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW...THAT
COULD BE BIG VSBY REDUCER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS DECIDE ON NEED FOR UPGRADE THOUGH. SETUP FOR MARQUETTE IS
SIMILAR FOR ALGER. TROUGH JUST ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT AND HEAVIER LES
LINGERS INTO THANKSGIVING LONGER. HEAVIEST SNOW FOCUSES MAINLY OVER
WESTERN SNOW BELTS OF THE COUNTY.

FINALLY...SOUTH FLOW LES STILL EXPECTED OFF LK MICHIGAN MAINLY
AFFECTING FAR EAST CWA. CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS INTO TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS UP TO
A FEW INCHES. LACK OF STRONG WINDS THOUGH WILL CURTAIL BLSN
ISSUES...SO DID NOT SEE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE FOR SCHOOLCRAFT OR
LUCE COUNTIES. INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH DUE TO LIMITED OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRES GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
20KT ACROSS THE LAKE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WED AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH THE TROF SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20-30KT FROM
NW TO SE WED/WED NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 261053
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA WITH RIDGING ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A TROF EXTENDING
FROM N OF HUDSON BAY TO TX AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
SHORTWAVE THAT PROVIDED WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW AS WELL AS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED NE INTO
QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE INTO THE DAKOTAS. A
LESS DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF IS FARTHER N OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. DRYING AIR MASS...LOWERING INVERSION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC HIGH PRES THAT IS
NOW NOSING INTO WRN UPPER MI HAVE RESULTED IN A STEADY DIMINISHING
TREND/SHIFTING OF LINGERING LES THIS AFTN. IN FACT...OVER THE
W...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES REMAINING. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO DIMINISHING WITH CLR SKIES NOW BEING
NOTED AROUND KIWD. TO THE W...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES ARE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NRN MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT...MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A PROBABLE PERIOD OF CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
MANY AREAS AND THEN NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER LES THAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WED AFTN AS SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES.

TONIGHT...ARRIVAL OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT LINGERING LES
OFFSHORE. OVER THE E...SHIFTING LES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE NO LATER THAN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVER THE W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS PROBABLY NOT MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES CURRENTLY REMAINING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LES DURING THE NIGHT. AMONG THE HIGH RES
MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHETHER SE MOVING SFC TROF WILL
SINK FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP LES OVER THE KEWEENAW. AT THIS POINT...
BELIEVE SW FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE WILL PUSH LES OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN SOME SCT -SHSN WORDING OVER
THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT PERIOD OF
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-55PCT OF NORMAL...FAVORED THE
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR...AND EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL TO
AROUND -5F. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS...
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN CURRENTLY FCST. COMBINED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER...COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS FALL TO -10F OR LWR IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT/WED AND WILL HAVE NO INFLUENCE
HERE AS IT PASSES WELL S OF UPPER MI. OF CONCERN IS THE FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WILL SWING SE AND EXTEND FROM JAMES BAY TO MN
BY 00Z THU. AS HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SFC TROF
MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHARPEN UP...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AND INTENSIFYING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALONG/NEAR TROF.
EXPECT THIS TROF TO REACH THE KEWEENAW DURING THE MORNING AND THE W
IN THE AFTN. TROF PROBABLY WON`T REACH NCNTRL UPPER MI UNTIL
EVENING. NE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AFTER
TROF PASSAGE WON`T BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AFTER THE MAIN MDT/HVY SNOW BAND ALONG TROF
SHIFTS S. FARTHER S...SHARPER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
UPSLOPING IS EXPECTED INTO ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...AND THIS IS
INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN LOW-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. WIND FLOW
SUGGESTS LAKE NIPIGON PRECONDITONING WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY OVER
THE FAR W. WITH THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE WED
NIGHT...WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC
STARTING AT 20Z WED. IN GENERAL...A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -SN SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF WRN
UPPER MI IN THE AFTN. TO THE E...IT APEARS WINDS WILL BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SOME LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR ERN
FCST AREA IN THE AFTN. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CONVERGENCE WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE LES OFF LAKE MI WED (LESS THAN 1 INCH).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRES GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
20KT ACROSS THE LAKE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WED AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH THE TROF SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20-30KT FROM
NW TO SE WED/WED NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261053
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA WITH RIDGING ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A TROF EXTENDING
FROM N OF HUDSON BAY TO TX AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
SHORTWAVE THAT PROVIDED WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW AS WELL AS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED NE INTO
QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE INTO THE DAKOTAS. A
LESS DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF IS FARTHER N OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. DRYING AIR MASS...LOWERING INVERSION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC HIGH PRES THAT IS
NOW NOSING INTO WRN UPPER MI HAVE RESULTED IN A STEADY DIMINISHING
TREND/SHIFTING OF LINGERING LES THIS AFTN. IN FACT...OVER THE
W...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES REMAINING. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO DIMINISHING WITH CLR SKIES NOW BEING
NOTED AROUND KIWD. TO THE W...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES ARE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NRN MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT...MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A PROBABLE PERIOD OF CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
MANY AREAS AND THEN NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER LES THAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WED AFTN AS SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES.

TONIGHT...ARRIVAL OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT LINGERING LES
OFFSHORE. OVER THE E...SHIFTING LES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE NO LATER THAN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVER THE W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS PROBABLY NOT MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES CURRENTLY REMAINING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LES DURING THE NIGHT. AMONG THE HIGH RES
MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHETHER SE MOVING SFC TROF WILL
SINK FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP LES OVER THE KEWEENAW. AT THIS POINT...
BELIEVE SW FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE WILL PUSH LES OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN SOME SCT -SHSN WORDING OVER
THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT PERIOD OF
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-55PCT OF NORMAL...FAVORED THE
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR...AND EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL TO
AROUND -5F. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS...
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN CURRENTLY FCST. COMBINED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER...COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS FALL TO -10F OR LWR IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT/WED AND WILL HAVE NO INFLUENCE
HERE AS IT PASSES WELL S OF UPPER MI. OF CONCERN IS THE FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WILL SWING SE AND EXTEND FROM JAMES BAY TO MN
BY 00Z THU. AS HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SFC TROF
MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHARPEN UP...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AND INTENSIFYING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALONG/NEAR TROF.
EXPECT THIS TROF TO REACH THE KEWEENAW DURING THE MORNING AND THE W
IN THE AFTN. TROF PROBABLY WON`T REACH NCNTRL UPPER MI UNTIL
EVENING. NE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AFTER
TROF PASSAGE WON`T BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AFTER THE MAIN MDT/HVY SNOW BAND ALONG TROF
SHIFTS S. FARTHER S...SHARPER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
UPSLOPING IS EXPECTED INTO ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...AND THIS IS
INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN LOW-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. WIND FLOW
SUGGESTS LAKE NIPIGON PRECONDITONING WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY OVER
THE FAR W. WITH THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE WED
NIGHT...WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC
STARTING AT 20Z WED. IN GENERAL...A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -SN SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF WRN
UPPER MI IN THE AFTN. TO THE E...IT APEARS WINDS WILL BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SOME LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR ERN
FCST AREA IN THE AFTN. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CONVERGENCE WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE LES OFF LAKE MI WED (LESS THAN 1 INCH).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRES GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
20KT ACROSS THE LAKE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WED AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH THE TROF SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20-30KT FROM
NW TO SE WED/WED NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON








000
FXUS63 KMQT 260558
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1258 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA WITH RIDGING ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A TROF EXTENDING
FROM N OF HUDSON BAY TO TX AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
SHORTWAVE THAT PROVIDED WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW AS WELL AS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED NE INTO
QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE INTO THE DAKOTAS. A
LESS DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF IS FARTHER N OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. DRYING AIR MASS...LOWERING INVERSION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC HIGH PRES THAT IS
NOW NOSING INTO WRN UPPER MI HAVE RESULTED IN A STEADY DIMINISHING
TREND/SHIFTING OF LINGERING LES THIS AFTN. IN FACT...OVER THE
W...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES REMAINING. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO DIMINISHING WITH CLR SKIES NOW BEING
NOTED AROUND KIWD. TO THE W...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES ARE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NRN MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT...MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A PROBABLE PERIOD OF CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
MANY AREAS AND THEN NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER LES THAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WED AFTN AS SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES.

TONIGHT...ARRIVAL OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT LINGERING LES
OFFSHORE. OVER THE E...SHIFTING LES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE NO LATER THAN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVER THE W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS PROBABLY NOT MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES CURRENTLY REMAINING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LES DURING THE NIGHT. AMONG THE HIGH RES
MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHETHER SE MOVING SFC TROF WILL
SINK FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP LES OVER THE KEWEENAW. AT THIS POINT...
BELIEVE SW FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE WILL PUSH LES OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN SOME SCT -SHSN WORDING OVER
THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT PERIOD OF
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-55PCT OF NORMAL...FAVORED THE
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR...AND EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL TO
AROUND -5F. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS...
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN CURRENTLY FCST. COMBINED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER...COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS FALL TO -10F OR LWR IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT/WED AND WILL HAVE NO INFLUENCE
HERE AS IT PASSES WELL S OF UPPER MI. OF CONCERN IS THE FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WILL SWING SE AND EXTEND FROM JAMES BAY TO MN
BY 00Z THU. AS HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SFC TROF
MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHARPEN UP...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AND INTENSIFYING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALONG/NEAR TROF.
EXPECT THIS TROF TO REACH THE KEWEENAW DURING THE MORNING AND THE W
IN THE AFTN. TROF PROBABLY WON`T REACH NCNTRL UPPER MI UNTIL
EVENING. NE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AFTER
TROF PASSAGE WON`T BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AFTER THE MAIN MDT/HVY SNOW BAND ALONG TROF
SHIFTS S. FARTHER S...SHARPER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
UPSLOPING IS EXPECTED INTO ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...AND THIS IS
INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN LOW-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. WIND FLOW
SUGGESTS LAKE NIPIGON PRECONDITONING WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY OVER
THE FAR W. WITH THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE WED
NIGHT...WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC
STARTING AT 20Z WED. IN GENERAL...A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -SN SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF WRN
UPPER MI IN THE AFTN. TO THE E...IT APEARS WINDS WILL BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SOME LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR ERN
FCST AREA IN THE AFTN. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CONVERGENCE WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE LES OFF LAKE MI WED (LESS THAN 1 INCH).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON LES POTENTIAL FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING AND NEED FOR HEADLINES AT SENSITIVE
TRAVEL TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SN WL BE POSSIBLE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT
WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER AN UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT WL
SHIFT TO A PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. WELL BLO NORMAL
TEMPS WITH SOME RECORD LO MAX TEMPS ON THANKSGIVING WL GIVE WAY TO
MUCH WARMER WX ON SAT. ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER AIR WL RETURN FOR SUN
INTO MON...A WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING TO
THE E WILL DVLP ON TUE UNDER THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

WED NGT...STEADY N BACKING NNW WIND IN THE WAKE OF PASSING NRN
STREAM SHRTWV IS FCST TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -18C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z THU...A FVRBL
SETUP FOR LES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS WHEN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UVV/DEEP
MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE COINCIDES WITH FVRBL
UPSLOPE...WEAKLY CYC N FLOW. AREAS OVER ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC IN THE
EVNG AND MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES IN THE LATER EVNG/EARLY OVERNGT
APPEAR TO BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE HEAVIER SN. ENHANCEMENT FACTOR FOR
HEAVIER SN TOTALS INCLUDE FAIRLY DEEP DGZ UP TO 4K FT. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPEST UVV IS FCST TO BE JUST BLO THE DGZ MUCH OF THE TIME...THERE
WL BE SOME UVV IN THIS ZONE THAT SHOULD ALLOW SN/WATER RATIOS UP TO
20-25:1. ONE NEGATIVE APPEARS TO BE THE ABSENCE OF SHARP CYC FLOW/
PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC. ALTHOUGH THE LK ENHANCEMENT WL NOT BE A
PLAYER WELL INLAND FM LK SUP...DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT SN EVEN OVER THE SCENTRAL. BUT ABSENCE OF HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR..
.WITH PWAT NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.3 INCH AND H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
ABOUT 1G/KG...WL LIMIT SN TOTALS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO AWAY
FM LK ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE WINDS. LATER AT NGT...EXPECT THE SN TO
DIMINISH NW-SE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHRTWV THAT IS
FCST TO STRENGTHEN INVRN AS LO AS H875-9 AS SHOWN ON NAM FCST SDNGS.
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMMON PRACTICE TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR PRIMARLIY A
3RD PERIOD EVENT...SENSITIVE TRAVEL TIME JUST BEFORE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/FAIRLY EFFICIENT SN GROWTH
PARAMETERS WARRANTS EARLY ISSUANCE OF AN LES ADVY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS OVER THE W/NCENTRAL DESPITE THE RATHER FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SN
THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL. THE LES ADVY WL INCLUDE GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. AS MUCH AS 7 TO 8 INCHES OF
SN WL FALL IN THESE AREAS THRU THE ADVY PERIOD. N WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 MPH WL CAUSE SOME BLSN NEAR LK SUP WED NIGHT INTO THU MRNG.

THANKSGIVING/THU NGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK STEADILY AND
TURN MORE ACYC ON THANKSGIVING WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD SW WI
LATE IN THE DAY UNDER HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV
RDG. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SN SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE IN
THE AFTN. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF
MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS ARND -18C REACHING THAT AREA
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCRSG ACYC FLOW AND ABSENCE OF SGNFT LLVL
CNVGC/LOWERING INVRN BASE TO H875-9 SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS UNDER
THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS WL LIMIT SN TOTALS. THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVHD AND COULD FEATURE SOME
RECORD LO MAX TEMPS. EXPECT THE LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE
BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUP MODERATION. AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS
TO THE E AND THE FLOW BACKS TO THE W-SW...LINGERING LES WL SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVNG TOWARD
THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HI CLDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA W-E
ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ON THE NW
FLANK OF PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SOME OF THE FASTER MODELS SHOW SN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W BY 12Z FRI...SO
WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS IN THIS AREA LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...AS THE UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA SHIFTS TO THE E...THE
FLOW OVER THE CONUS/SRN CANADA WL BECOME MORE ZONAL. DVLPG LLVL SW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI
PRES SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE TO BRING ABOUT SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR/PCPN ON FRI TO THE
NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN AND WI.
ALTHOUGH INITIAL SHOT OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE
280-290K SFCS/H85-7 FGEN AXIS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO
IMPACT NRN WI ON FRI MRNG...THIS WAA/FORCING MAY SHIFT FARTHER N
INTO UPR MI DURING THE DAY. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AS HI AS 3
G/KG...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SN
AMOUNTS APRCHG ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE SRN CWA. AS THE H925 WINDS
BECOME MORE S IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C
RANGE...LES OFF LK MI WL IMPACT THE ERN CWA. WL MAINTAIN THE HIER
POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...MORE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARE SHOWING UP WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A MORE WNW VS W FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONGER SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS  LK SUP ON FRI
NGT...WITH CYC NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DVLPG OVER THE CWA LATE FRI
NGT. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER EVEN AMONG THE MOST
RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... SO TENDED TO FOLLOW THE MORE
CONSISTENT 12Z CNDN/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SLOWER SFC LO AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH TO THE NE OF H85 WARM
FNT...WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA BY 12Z
SAT ACCOMPANYING DRY SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS OVER THE SRN TIER. WITH
ECWMF SDNGS SHOWING LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING WARM
NOSE ARND H85...ADDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO STREAKING ENEWD THRU ONTARIO AND
THEN DRAGGING A COLD FNT ACRS THE CWA SAT NGT. AHEAD OF THIS FNT...
MORE CONSISTENT...FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO
THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER
ON SAT UNDER SOME MID LVL DRYING. TENDED TO CUT POPS OVER THE SRN
TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND CNDN MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL
DRYING FARTHER FM THE LO TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME RA OR
FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE
LO TRACK AND SOMEWHAT HIER CHC POPS...INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING
RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS IS A BIT COLDER. IF
SFC TEMPS END UP HIER THAN CURRENTLY FCST...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DZ/RA AND GO WITH PLAIN RA. RIGHT NOW...
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR.

EXTENDED...MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -18C BY
00Z MON...AND SOME LK EFFECT SN WL FOLLOW ON SUN UNDER NW FLOW BTWN
DEPARTING COLD FNT AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG E THRU THE NRN PLAINS. BUT
SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE SFC HI PRES WL
SHIFT THRU THE GREAT LKS ON MON AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AS UPR RDG
BLDS INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES
ON MON WITH DRY WX LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENUF MSTR TO THE N ON TUE TO
BRING A RETURN OF SOME SN OR A RA/SN MIX.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRES GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
20KT ACROSS THE LAKE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WED AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH THE TROF SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20-30KT FROM
NW TO SE WED/WED NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON






000
FXUS63 KMQT 260558
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1258 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA WITH RIDGING ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A TROF EXTENDING
FROM N OF HUDSON BAY TO TX AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
SHORTWAVE THAT PROVIDED WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW AS WELL AS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED NE INTO
QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE INTO THE DAKOTAS. A
LESS DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF IS FARTHER N OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. DRYING AIR MASS...LOWERING INVERSION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC HIGH PRES THAT IS
NOW NOSING INTO WRN UPPER MI HAVE RESULTED IN A STEADY DIMINISHING
TREND/SHIFTING OF LINGERING LES THIS AFTN. IN FACT...OVER THE
W...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES REMAINING. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO DIMINISHING WITH CLR SKIES NOW BEING
NOTED AROUND KIWD. TO THE W...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES ARE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NRN MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT...MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A PROBABLE PERIOD OF CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
MANY AREAS AND THEN NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER LES THAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WED AFTN AS SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES.

TONIGHT...ARRIVAL OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT LINGERING LES
OFFSHORE. OVER THE E...SHIFTING LES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE NO LATER THAN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVER THE W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS PROBABLY NOT MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES CURRENTLY REMAINING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LES DURING THE NIGHT. AMONG THE HIGH RES
MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHETHER SE MOVING SFC TROF WILL
SINK FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP LES OVER THE KEWEENAW. AT THIS POINT...
BELIEVE SW FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE WILL PUSH LES OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN SOME SCT -SHSN WORDING OVER
THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT PERIOD OF
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-55PCT OF NORMAL...FAVORED THE
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR...AND EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL TO
AROUND -5F. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS...
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN CURRENTLY FCST. COMBINED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER...COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS FALL TO -10F OR LWR IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT/WED AND WILL HAVE NO INFLUENCE
HERE AS IT PASSES WELL S OF UPPER MI. OF CONCERN IS THE FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WILL SWING SE AND EXTEND FROM JAMES BAY TO MN
BY 00Z THU. AS HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SFC TROF
MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHARPEN UP...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AND INTENSIFYING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALONG/NEAR TROF.
EXPECT THIS TROF TO REACH THE KEWEENAW DURING THE MORNING AND THE W
IN THE AFTN. TROF PROBABLY WON`T REACH NCNTRL UPPER MI UNTIL
EVENING. NE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AFTER
TROF PASSAGE WON`T BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AFTER THE MAIN MDT/HVY SNOW BAND ALONG TROF
SHIFTS S. FARTHER S...SHARPER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
UPSLOPING IS EXPECTED INTO ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...AND THIS IS
INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN LOW-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. WIND FLOW
SUGGESTS LAKE NIPIGON PRECONDITONING WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY OVER
THE FAR W. WITH THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE WED
NIGHT...WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC
STARTING AT 20Z WED. IN GENERAL...A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -SN SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF WRN
UPPER MI IN THE AFTN. TO THE E...IT APEARS WINDS WILL BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SOME LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR ERN
FCST AREA IN THE AFTN. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CONVERGENCE WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE LES OFF LAKE MI WED (LESS THAN 1 INCH).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM WL FOCUS ON LES POTENTIAL FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING AND NEED FOR HEADLINES AT SENSITIVE
TRAVEL TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF SN WL BE POSSIBLE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT
WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER AN UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT WL
SHIFT TO A PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. WELL BLO NORMAL
TEMPS WITH SOME RECORD LO MAX TEMPS ON THANKSGIVING WL GIVE WAY TO
MUCH WARMER WX ON SAT. ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER AIR WL RETURN FOR SUN
INTO MON...A WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF HI PRES SHIFTING TO
THE E WILL DVLP ON TUE UNDER THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

WED NGT...STEADY N BACKING NNW WIND IN THE WAKE OF PASSING NRN
STREAM SHRTWV IS FCST TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85
TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS -18C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z THU...A FVRBL
SETUP FOR LES. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOME HEAVIER LK ENHANCED SN IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS WHEN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/UVV/DEEP
MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE COINCIDES WITH FVRBL
UPSLOPE...WEAKLY CYC N FLOW. AREAS OVER ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC IN THE
EVNG AND MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES IN THE LATER EVNG/EARLY OVERNGT
APPEAR TO BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE HEAVIER SN. ENHANCEMENT FACTOR FOR
HEAVIER SN TOTALS INCLUDE FAIRLY DEEP DGZ UP TO 4K FT. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPEST UVV IS FCST TO BE JUST BLO THE DGZ MUCH OF THE TIME...THERE
WL BE SOME UVV IN THIS ZONE THAT SHOULD ALLOW SN/WATER RATIOS UP TO
20-25:1. ONE NEGATIVE APPEARS TO BE THE ABSENCE OF SHARP CYC FLOW/
PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC. ALTHOUGH THE LK ENHANCEMENT WL NOT BE A
PLAYER WELL INLAND FM LK SUP...DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT SN EVEN OVER THE SCENTRAL. BUT ABSENCE OF HIER ABSOLUTE MSTR..
.WITH PWAT NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.3 INCH AND H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
ABOUT 1G/KG...WL LIMIT SN TOTALS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO AWAY
FM LK ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE WINDS. LATER AT NGT...EXPECT THE SN TO
DIMINISH NW-SE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHRTWV THAT IS
FCST TO STRENGTHEN INVRN AS LO AS H875-9 AS SHOWN ON NAM FCST SDNGS.
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMMON PRACTICE TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR PRIMARLIY A
3RD PERIOD EVENT...SENSITIVE TRAVEL TIME JUST BEFORE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW/FAIRLY EFFICIENT SN GROWTH
PARAMETERS WARRANTS EARLY ISSUANCE OF AN LES ADVY IN THE FAVORED
AREAS OVER THE W/NCENTRAL DESPITE THE RATHER FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SN
THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL. THE LES ADVY WL INCLUDE GOGEBIC/
ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. AS MUCH AS 7 TO 8 INCHES OF
SN WL FALL IN THESE AREAS THRU THE ADVY PERIOD. N WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25-30 MPH WL CAUSE SOME BLSN NEAR LK SUP WED NIGHT INTO THU MRNG.

THANKSGIVING/THU NGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK STEADILY AND
TURN MORE ACYC ON THANKSGIVING WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD SW WI
LATE IN THE DAY UNDER HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV
RDG. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SN SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE IN
THE AFTN. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS E OF
MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS ARND -18C REACHING THAT AREA
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCRSG ACYC FLOW AND ABSENCE OF SGNFT LLVL
CNVGC/LOWERING INVRN BASE TO H875-9 SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS UNDER
THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS WL LIMIT SN TOTALS. THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVHD AND COULD FEATURE SOME
RECORD LO MAX TEMPS. EXPECT THE LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE
BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUP MODERATION. AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS
TO THE E AND THE FLOW BACKS TO THE W-SW...LINGERING LES WL SHIFT OUT
INTO LK SUP ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVNG TOWARD
THE LO END OF GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HI CLDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA W-E
ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SW FLOW ON THE NW
FLANK OF PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SOME OF THE FASTER MODELS SHOW SN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W BY 12Z FRI...SO
WL MAINTAIN SOME LO CHC POPS IN THIS AREA LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...AS THE UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA SHIFTS TO THE E...THE
FLOW OVER THE CONUS/SRN CANADA WL BECOME MORE ZONAL. DVLPG LLVL SW
FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE GREAT LKS ON THE NW FLANK OF SFC HI
PRES SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND IN ADVANCE OF
SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE TO BRING ABOUT SOME INCRSG MID LVL MSTR/PCPN ON FRI TO THE
NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN AND WI.
ALTHOUGH INITIAL SHOT OF SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST SHOWN ON THE
280-290K SFCS/H85-7 FGEN AXIS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IS FCST TO
IMPACT NRN WI ON FRI MRNG...THIS WAA/FORCING MAY SHIFT FARTHER N
INTO UPR MI DURING THE DAY. H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS FCST AS HI AS 3
G/KG...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SN
AMOUNTS APRCHG ADVY CRITERIA OVER THE SRN CWA. AS THE H925 WINDS
BECOME MORE S IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C
RANGE...LES OFF LK MI WL IMPACT THE ERN CWA. WL MAINTAIN THE HIER
POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...MORE NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARE SHOWING UP WITH THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A MORE WNW VS W FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONGER SHRTWV/SFC LO TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS  LK SUP ON FRI
NGT...WITH CYC NW FLOW OF COLDER AIR DVLPG OVER THE CWA LATE FRI
NGT. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY MUCH AN OUTLIER EVEN AMONG THE MOST
RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE... SO TENDED TO FOLLOW THE MORE
CONSISTENT 12Z CNDN/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS. THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SLOWER SFC LO AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH TO THE NE OF H85 WARM
FNT...WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA BY 12Z
SAT ACCOMPANYING DRY SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS OVER THE SRN TIER. WITH
ECWMF SDNGS SHOWING LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING WARM
NOSE ARND H85...ADDED A MENTION OF SOME FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LO STREAKING ENEWD THRU ONTARIO AND
THEN DRAGGING A COLD FNT ACRS THE CWA SAT NGT. AHEAD OF THIS FNT...
MORE CONSISTENT...FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/CNDN MODELS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO
THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER
ON SAT UNDER SOME MID LVL DRYING. TENDED TO CUT POPS OVER THE SRN
TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND CNDN MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL
DRYING FARTHER FM THE LO TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME RA OR
FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE
LO TRACK AND SOMEWHAT HIER CHC POPS...INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING
RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS IS A BIT COLDER. IF
SFC TEMPS END UP HIER THAN CURRENTLY FCST...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DZ/RA AND GO WITH PLAIN RA. RIGHT NOW...
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR.

EXTENDED...MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS LO AS -18C BY
00Z MON...AND SOME LK EFFECT SN WL FOLLOW ON SUN UNDER NW FLOW BTWN
DEPARTING COLD FNT AND CNDN HI PRES BLDG E THRU THE NRN PLAINS. BUT
SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE SFC HI PRES WL
SHIFT THRU THE GREAT LKS ON MON AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AS UPR RDG
BLDS INTO THE UPR LKS ON TUE. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES
ON MON WITH DRY WX LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENUF MSTR TO THE N ON TUE TO
BRING A RETURN OF SOME SN OR A RA/SN MIX.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRES GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
20KT ACROSS THE LAKE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WED AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH THE TROF SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20-30KT FROM
NW TO SE WED/WED NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON







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