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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250529
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER NORTHWEST CANADA HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SKIES ACROSS EASTERN/PARTS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAZY LOOKING. LINGERING MOISTURE OUT EAST WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH LED TO SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG OUT EAST THIS MORNING ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STAYED
ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO MANITOBA
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO SITUATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER UPPER MI FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI
AND THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER
ALBERTA WILL FORCE AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...UPPER MI WILL SEE A HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PWATS GENERALLY REACH UP
TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING IN CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW IN QUEBEC AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW DESPITE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12-14C. THIS PUTS UPPER MI SQUARELY
IN THE 70S...AND CLOSER TO 80 INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS WEEKEND WL BRING UNSETTLED WX A AS DEEP CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE
PAC NW MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA ON FRI/SAT AND THEN THRU THE UPR
LKS ON SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WNW FLOW ALF BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. MUCH COOLER AIR WL
INVADE THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AMPLIFIES THE QUEBEC TROF INTO ALL OF ERN
NAMERICA.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURANCE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG DEEP LYR FORCING ARE FCST TO BE REMAIN WELL
UPSTREAM...A GOOD NUMBER OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
SHRTWV/AXIS OF DPVA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRI EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTER AIR/PWAT NEAR 1.5
INCH IN THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN LOWER MSLP IN THE PLAINS AND HI PRES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...SHOWER/TS CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
LATER FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS INCOMING SHRTWV/BAND OF FORCING ARRIVE.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS FORCING COINCIDING WITH SOME DRYING
ALF... WITH OVERALL QPF RATHER LIMITED. WL RETAIN FLAVOR OF GOING
FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING CHC POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV/AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL DIMINISH LINGERING POPS W-E ON SAT AFTN. BUT
DAYTIME HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYING ON SAT AFTN MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/TS...MAINLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO
DEPARTING MSTR AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC COULD INCRS THE CHC FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS ON SAT AWAY FM LK MODERATION ARE LIKELY TO RISE AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME AFTN SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
16-17C OVER THE W AT 00Z SUN.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS/SOME TS W-E
LATER SAT NGT AS CLOSED LO SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC APRCH UPR MI. THE MOST
WDSPRD SHOWERS WL OCCUR ON SUN MRNG AS UPR LO TRACKS ACRS NRN WI...
PLACING UPR MI ON THE FAVORED CYC SIDE OF THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE
AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THESE POPS WL
DIMINISH NW-SE SUN AFTN/EVNG WITH ARRIVAL DNVA/DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV DEPARTING TO THE SE THRU LOWER MI.
WITH A N FLOW DVLPG OVER THE AREA OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS ON SUN AS
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...TEMPS
OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LK ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL THRU THE 50S IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT LO
CLDS. H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO 4-6C BY 12Z MON WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S AT MANY PLACES ON SUN NGT.

MON THRU THU...THE UPR LKS WL BE UNDER A NNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ARND CLOSED LO IN
QUEBEC AND PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE W...RESULTING IN WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 4-6C ON MON
MRNG AND LLVL N WINDS ADVECT LK SUP COOLED AIR ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ARND 12C BY MID WEEK...OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO NORMAL. ANOTHER CONCERN ON EACH OF THE DAYS WL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
LARGER SCALE CYC NNW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS
WL BE ON TUE AND WED AS SEVERAL OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC DRIFTING CLOSER TO UPR MI AS A STRONGER SHRTWV
DIGS SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND THE CUTOFF AND SLOWLY MODERATING SFC-H85
TEMPS RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND PUT PROB30 INTO ALL SITES THEN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA
UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 250529
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER NORTHWEST CANADA HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SKIES ACROSS EASTERN/PARTS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAZY LOOKING. LINGERING MOISTURE OUT EAST WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH LED TO SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG OUT EAST THIS MORNING ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STAYED
ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO MANITOBA
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO SITUATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER UPPER MI FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI
AND THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER
ALBERTA WILL FORCE AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...UPPER MI WILL SEE A HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PWATS GENERALLY REACH UP
TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING IN CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW IN QUEBEC AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW DESPITE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12-14C. THIS PUTS UPPER MI SQUARELY
IN THE 70S...AND CLOSER TO 80 INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS WEEKEND WL BRING UNSETTLED WX A AS DEEP CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE
PAC NW MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA ON FRI/SAT AND THEN THRU THE UPR
LKS ON SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WNW FLOW ALF BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. MUCH COOLER AIR WL
INVADE THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AMPLIFIES THE QUEBEC TROF INTO ALL OF ERN
NAMERICA.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURANCE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG DEEP LYR FORCING ARE FCST TO BE REMAIN WELL
UPSTREAM...A GOOD NUMBER OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
SHRTWV/AXIS OF DPVA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRI EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTER AIR/PWAT NEAR 1.5
INCH IN THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN LOWER MSLP IN THE PLAINS AND HI PRES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...SHOWER/TS CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
LATER FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS INCOMING SHRTWV/BAND OF FORCING ARRIVE.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS FORCING COINCIDING WITH SOME DRYING
ALF... WITH OVERALL QPF RATHER LIMITED. WL RETAIN FLAVOR OF GOING
FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING CHC POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV/AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL DIMINISH LINGERING POPS W-E ON SAT AFTN. BUT
DAYTIME HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYING ON SAT AFTN MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/TS...MAINLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO
DEPARTING MSTR AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC COULD INCRS THE CHC FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS ON SAT AWAY FM LK MODERATION ARE LIKELY TO RISE AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME AFTN SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
16-17C OVER THE W AT 00Z SUN.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS/SOME TS W-E
LATER SAT NGT AS CLOSED LO SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC APRCH UPR MI. THE MOST
WDSPRD SHOWERS WL OCCUR ON SUN MRNG AS UPR LO TRACKS ACRS NRN WI...
PLACING UPR MI ON THE FAVORED CYC SIDE OF THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE
AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THESE POPS WL
DIMINISH NW-SE SUN AFTN/EVNG WITH ARRIVAL DNVA/DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV DEPARTING TO THE SE THRU LOWER MI.
WITH A N FLOW DVLPG OVER THE AREA OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS ON SUN AS
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...TEMPS
OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LK ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL THRU THE 50S IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT LO
CLDS. H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO 4-6C BY 12Z MON WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S AT MANY PLACES ON SUN NGT.

MON THRU THU...THE UPR LKS WL BE UNDER A NNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ARND CLOSED LO IN
QUEBEC AND PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE W...RESULTING IN WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 4-6C ON MON
MRNG AND LLVL N WINDS ADVECT LK SUP COOLED AIR ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ARND 12C BY MID WEEK...OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO NORMAL. ANOTHER CONCERN ON EACH OF THE DAYS WL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
LARGER SCALE CYC NNW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS
WL BE ON TUE AND WED AS SEVERAL OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC DRIFTING CLOSER TO UPR MI AS A STRONGER SHRTWV
DIGS SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND THE CUTOFF AND SLOWLY MODERATING SFC-H85
TEMPS RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND PUT PROB30 INTO ALL SITES THEN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA
UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 242321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER NORTHWEST CANADA HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SKIES ACROSS EASTERN/PARTS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAZY LOOKING. LINGERING MOISTURE OUT EAST WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH LED TO SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG OUT EAST THIS MORNING ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STAYED
ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO MANITOBA
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO SITUATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER UPPER MI FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI
AND THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER
ALBERTA WILL FORCE AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...UPPER MI WILL SEE A HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PWATS GENERALLY REACH UP
TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING IN CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW IN QUEBEC AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW DESPITE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12-14C. THIS PUTS UPPER MI SQUARELY
IN THE 70S...AND CLOSER TO 80 INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS WEEKEND WL BRING UNSETTLED WX A AS DEEP CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE
PAC NW MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA ON FRI/SAT AND THEN THRU THE UPR
LKS ON SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WNW FLOW ALF BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. MUCH COOLER AIR WL
INVADE THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AMPLIFIES THE QUEBEC TROF INTO ALL OF ERN
NAMERICA.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURANCE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG DEEP LYR FORCING ARE FCST TO BE REMAIN WELL
UPSTREAM...A GOOD NUMBER OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
SHRTWV/AXIS OF DPVA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRI EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTER AIR/PWAT NEAR 1.5
INCH IN THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN LOWER MSLP IN THE PLAINS AND HI PRES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...SHOWER/TS CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
LATER FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS INCOMING SHRTWV/BAND OF FORCING ARRIVE.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS FORCING COINCIDING WITH SOME DRYING
ALF... WITH OVERALL QPF RATHER LIMITED. WL RETAIN FLAVOR OF GOING
FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING CHC POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV/AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL DIMINISH LINGERING POPS W-E ON SAT AFTN. BUT
DAYTIME HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYING ON SAT AFTN MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/TS...MAINLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO
DEPARTING MSTR AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC COULD INCRS THE CHC FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS ON SAT AWAY FM LK MODERATION ARE LIKELY TO RISE AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME AFTN SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
16-17C OVER THE W AT 00Z SUN.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS/SOME TS W-E
LATER SAT NGT AS CLOSED LO SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC APRCH UPR MI. THE MOST
WDSPRD SHOWERS WL OCCUR ON SUN MRNG AS UPR LO TRACKS ACRS NRN WI...
PLACING UPR MI ON THE FAVORED CYC SIDE OF THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE
AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THESE POPS WL
DIMINISH NW-SE SUN AFTN/EVNG WITH ARRIVAL DNVA/DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV DEPARTING TO THE SE THRU LOWER MI.
WITH A N FLOW DVLPG OVER THE AREA OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS ON SUN AS
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...TEMPS
OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LK ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL THRU THE 50S IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT LO
CLDS. H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO 4-6C BY 12Z MON WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S AT MANY PLACES ON SUN NGT.

MON THRU THU...THE UPR LKS WL BE UNDER A NNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ARND CLOSED LO IN
QUEBEC AND PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE W...RESULTING IN WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 4-6C ON MON
MRNG AND LLVL N WINDS ADVECT LK SUP COOLED AIR ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ARND 12C BY MID WEEK...OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO NORMAL. ANOTHER CONCERN ON EACH OF THE DAYS WL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
LARGER SCALE CYC NNW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS
WL BE ON TUE AND WED AS SEVERAL OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC DRIFTING CLOSER TO UPR MI AS A STRONGER SHRTWV
DIGS SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND THE CUTOFF AND SLOWLY MODERATING SFC-H85
TEMPS RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD TO BE IN THE WEST AND
PUT PROB30 INTO IWD AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA
UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 242321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER NORTHWEST CANADA HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SKIES ACROSS EASTERN/PARTS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAZY LOOKING. LINGERING MOISTURE OUT EAST WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH LED TO SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG OUT EAST THIS MORNING ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STAYED
ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO MANITOBA
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO SITUATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER UPPER MI FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI
AND THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER
ALBERTA WILL FORCE AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...UPPER MI WILL SEE A HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PWATS GENERALLY REACH UP
TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING IN CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW IN QUEBEC AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW DESPITE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12-14C. THIS PUTS UPPER MI SQUARELY
IN THE 70S...AND CLOSER TO 80 INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS WEEKEND WL BRING UNSETTLED WX A AS DEEP CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE
PAC NW MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA ON FRI/SAT AND THEN THRU THE UPR
LKS ON SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WNW FLOW ALF BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. MUCH COOLER AIR WL
INVADE THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AMPLIFIES THE QUEBEC TROF INTO ALL OF ERN
NAMERICA.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURANCE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG DEEP LYR FORCING ARE FCST TO BE REMAIN WELL
UPSTREAM...A GOOD NUMBER OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
SHRTWV/AXIS OF DPVA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRI EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTER AIR/PWAT NEAR 1.5
INCH IN THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN LOWER MSLP IN THE PLAINS AND HI PRES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...SHOWER/TS CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
LATER FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS INCOMING SHRTWV/BAND OF FORCING ARRIVE.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS FORCING COINCIDING WITH SOME DRYING
ALF... WITH OVERALL QPF RATHER LIMITED. WL RETAIN FLAVOR OF GOING
FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING CHC POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV/AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL DIMINISH LINGERING POPS W-E ON SAT AFTN. BUT
DAYTIME HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYING ON SAT AFTN MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/TS...MAINLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO
DEPARTING MSTR AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC COULD INCRS THE CHC FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS ON SAT AWAY FM LK MODERATION ARE LIKELY TO RISE AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME AFTN SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
16-17C OVER THE W AT 00Z SUN.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS/SOME TS W-E
LATER SAT NGT AS CLOSED LO SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC APRCH UPR MI. THE MOST
WDSPRD SHOWERS WL OCCUR ON SUN MRNG AS UPR LO TRACKS ACRS NRN WI...
PLACING UPR MI ON THE FAVORED CYC SIDE OF THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE
AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THESE POPS WL
DIMINISH NW-SE SUN AFTN/EVNG WITH ARRIVAL DNVA/DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV DEPARTING TO THE SE THRU LOWER MI.
WITH A N FLOW DVLPG OVER THE AREA OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS ON SUN AS
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...TEMPS
OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LK ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL THRU THE 50S IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT LO
CLDS. H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO 4-6C BY 12Z MON WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S AT MANY PLACES ON SUN NGT.

MON THRU THU...THE UPR LKS WL BE UNDER A NNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ARND CLOSED LO IN
QUEBEC AND PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE W...RESULTING IN WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 4-6C ON MON
MRNG AND LLVL N WINDS ADVECT LK SUP COOLED AIR ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ARND 12C BY MID WEEK...OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO NORMAL. ANOTHER CONCERN ON EACH OF THE DAYS WL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
LARGER SCALE CYC NNW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS
WL BE ON TUE AND WED AS SEVERAL OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC DRIFTING CLOSER TO UPR MI AS A STRONGER SHRTWV
DIGS SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND THE CUTOFF AND SLOWLY MODERATING SFC-H85
TEMPS RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD TO BE IN THE WEST AND
PUT PROB30 INTO IWD AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA
UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 241942
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER NORTHWEST CANADA HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SKIES ACROSS EASTERN/PARTS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAZY LOOKING. LINGERING MOISTURE OUT EAST WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH LED TO SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG OUT EAST THIS MORNING ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STAYED
ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO MANITOBA
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO SITUATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER UPPER MI FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI
AND THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER
ALBERTA WILL FORCE AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...UPPER MI WILL SEE A HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PWATS GENERALLY REACH UP
TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING IN CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW IN QUEBEC AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW DESPITE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12-14C. THIS PUTS UPPER MI SQUARELY
IN THE 70S...AND CLOSER TO 80 INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS WEEKEND WL BRING UNSETTLED WX A AS DEEP CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE
PAC NW MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA ON FRI/SAT AND THEN THRU THE UPR
LKS ON SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WNW FLOW ALF BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. MUCH COOLER AIR WL
INVADE THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AMPLIFIES THE QUEBEC TROF INTO ALL OF ERN
NAMERICA.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURANCE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG DEEP LYR FORCING ARE FCST TO BE REMAIN WELL
UPSTREAM...A GOOD NUMBER OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
SHRTWV/AXIS OF DPVA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRI EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTER AIR/PWAT NEAR 1.5
INCH IN THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN LOWER MSLP IN THE PLAINS AND HI PRES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...SHOWER/TS CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
LATER FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS INCOMING SHRTWV/BAND OF FORCING ARRIVE.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS FORCING COINCIDING WITH SOME DRYING
ALF... WITH OVERALL QPF RATHER LIMITED. WL RETAIN FLAVOR OF GOING
FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING CHC POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV/AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL DIMINISH LINGERING POPS W-E ON SAT AFTN. BUT
DAYTIME HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYING ON SAT AFTN MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/TS...MAINLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO
DEPARTING MSTR AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC COULD INCRS THE CHC FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS ON SAT AWAY FM LK MODERATION ARE LIKELY TO RISE AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME AFTN SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
16-17C OVER THE W AT 00Z SUN.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS/SOME TS W-E
LATER SAT NGT AS CLOSED LO SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC APRCH UPR MI. THE MOST
WDSPRD SHOWERS WL OCCUR ON SUN MRNG AS UPR LO TRACKS ACRS NRN WI...
PLACING UPR MI ON THE FAVORED CYC SIDE OF THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE
AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THESE POPS WL
DIMINISH NW-SE SUN AFTN/EVNG WITH ARRIVAL DNVA/DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV DEPARTING TO THE SE THRU LOWER MI.
WITH A N FLOW DVLPG OVER THE AREA OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS ON SUN AS
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...TEMPS
OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LK ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL THRU THE 50S IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT LO
CLDS. H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO 4-6C BY 12Z MON WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S AT MANY PLACES ON SUN NGT.

MON THRU THU...THE UPR LKS WL BE UNDER A NNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ARND CLOSED LO IN
QUEBEC AND PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE W...RESULTING IN WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 4-6C ON MON
MRNG AND LLVL N WINDS ADVECT LK SUP COOLED AIR ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ARND 12C BY MID WEEK...OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO NORMAL. ANOTHER CONCERN ON EACH OF THE DAYS WL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
LARGER SCALE CYC NNW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS
WL BE ON TUE AND WED AS SEVERAL OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC DRIFTING CLOSER TO UPR MI AS A STRONGER SHRTWV
DIGS SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND THE CUTOFF AND SLOWLY MODERATING SFC-H85
TEMPS RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD/TOWARDS 16-18Z TO BE IN
THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN THESE SHOWERS AS THERE WILL
BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THEM TO OVERCOME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA
UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 241735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH
SLIDES JUST SW OF THE CWA TODAY AND A SFC LOW MOVES TO ERN SD BY 12Z
FRI.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND ONLY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE W.

SHOULD START TODAY WITH W-WNW SFC WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND QUICK WARMING DUE TO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE DOMINATING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE SW WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS IS SHOWN BY
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /WILL LESS
THAN 15KTS/ ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10KTS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WILDFIRE CONCERNS
LOWER EVEN AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR E UPPER MI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA TODAY...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CURRENTLY DOMINATES NAMERICA AS A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WELL N INTO NCNTRL CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA DOWN THRU THE ERN CONUS.
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW FOR JULY HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL ROLL EASTWARD...CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND
RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER
NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND
EVENTUALLY OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL
QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN
WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED
TO THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM JULY AVG IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN
AREA. MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FINAL DAYS OF JULY...BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
UPPER LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
COOLEST WEATHER SUN/MON. THE COOL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY
INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST ON RECORD HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION.
AS FOR PCPN...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRI...THEN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
REACH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO THE SW AND W...IT
WOULD SEEM THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE WAVES SHOULD STAY W
AND SW OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY DRY
NOW BRING PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA FRI. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL EVEN CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP A SHORTWAVE FROM CONVECTION IT
DEVELOPS IN ND/MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD FURTHER AID THE SPREAD
OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI FRI DESPITE PCPN OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR FRI TO CHC W AND
SCHC CNTRL IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER/MUCH
GREATER COLUMN MOISTURE THAN TODAY...MID DAY 850MB TEMPS FRI WILL BE
A FEW C HIGHER THAN TODAY. IN THE END...MAX TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW...STILL ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...THAT WILL
BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC
PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY PASSING
THRU THE AREA SUN. AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO...MODELS STILL INDICATE
2 PERIODS OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING...ONE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY. THIS SUGGESTS
THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS WITH THE MAIN RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PCPN...THOUGH THE SECOND PERIOD WILL LIKELY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL
AS FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM NW MN ACROSS NRN WI. ON SAT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN PCPN FCST. WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER CHC
OF PCPN IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...THE
AFTN HRS MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF WAVE. HOWEVER...MAY
STILL END UP WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES UNDER GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT WITH SFC TROFFING OVER THE
AREA. ON SUN...WITH PCPN THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
WITH SFC LOW DROPPING SE OF THE AREA...SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL AS
BRISK NRLY WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT OF
THE 50S UNLESS IT`S WARMER TO START THE DAY BEFORE WINDS REALLY
INCREASE. IN FACT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE N...TEMPS MAY END UP FALLING
SOME DURING THE DAY UNDER STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET
ABOVE 70F.

MON-WED...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGEST TROF AXIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW MON
THRU WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO DROP THRU THE AREA
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA. WHILE
PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH SMALLER SCALE WAVES AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
VERY LOW...THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF THAT SHORTWAVES MAY DROP THRU/NEAR THE AREA BOTH TUE AND
WED...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE MON
UNDER A LINGERING BRISK N TO NW WIND WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS
4-6C. TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST OVER THE E WHERE WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STRONGER. GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR
TUE/WED...BUT TEMPS EVEN ON WED WILL STILL END UP BLO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD/TOWARDS 16-18Z TO BE IN
THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN THESE SHOWERS AS THERE WILL
BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THEM TO OVERCOME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 241735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH
SLIDES JUST SW OF THE CWA TODAY AND A SFC LOW MOVES TO ERN SD BY 12Z
FRI.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND ONLY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE W.

SHOULD START TODAY WITH W-WNW SFC WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND QUICK WARMING DUE TO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE DOMINATING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE SW WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS IS SHOWN BY
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /WILL LESS
THAN 15KTS/ ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10KTS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WILDFIRE CONCERNS
LOWER EVEN AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR E UPPER MI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA TODAY...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CURRENTLY DOMINATES NAMERICA AS A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WELL N INTO NCNTRL CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA DOWN THRU THE ERN CONUS.
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW FOR JULY HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL ROLL EASTWARD...CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND
RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER
NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND
EVENTUALLY OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL
QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN
WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED
TO THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM JULY AVG IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN
AREA. MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FINAL DAYS OF JULY...BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
UPPER LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
COOLEST WEATHER SUN/MON. THE COOL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY
INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST ON RECORD HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION.
AS FOR PCPN...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRI...THEN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
REACH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO THE SW AND W...IT
WOULD SEEM THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE WAVES SHOULD STAY W
AND SW OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY DRY
NOW BRING PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA FRI. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL EVEN CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP A SHORTWAVE FROM CONVECTION IT
DEVELOPS IN ND/MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD FURTHER AID THE SPREAD
OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI FRI DESPITE PCPN OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR FRI TO CHC W AND
SCHC CNTRL IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER/MUCH
GREATER COLUMN MOISTURE THAN TODAY...MID DAY 850MB TEMPS FRI WILL BE
A FEW C HIGHER THAN TODAY. IN THE END...MAX TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW...STILL ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...THAT WILL
BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC
PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY PASSING
THRU THE AREA SUN. AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO...MODELS STILL INDICATE
2 PERIODS OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING...ONE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY. THIS SUGGESTS
THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS WITH THE MAIN RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PCPN...THOUGH THE SECOND PERIOD WILL LIKELY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL
AS FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM NW MN ACROSS NRN WI. ON SAT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN PCPN FCST. WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER CHC
OF PCPN IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...THE
AFTN HRS MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF WAVE. HOWEVER...MAY
STILL END UP WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES UNDER GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT WITH SFC TROFFING OVER THE
AREA. ON SUN...WITH PCPN THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
WITH SFC LOW DROPPING SE OF THE AREA...SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL AS
BRISK NRLY WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT OF
THE 50S UNLESS IT`S WARMER TO START THE DAY BEFORE WINDS REALLY
INCREASE. IN FACT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE N...TEMPS MAY END UP FALLING
SOME DURING THE DAY UNDER STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET
ABOVE 70F.

MON-WED...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGEST TROF AXIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW MON
THRU WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO DROP THRU THE AREA
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA. WHILE
PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH SMALLER SCALE WAVES AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
VERY LOW...THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF THAT SHORTWAVES MAY DROP THRU/NEAR THE AREA BOTH TUE AND
WED...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE MON
UNDER A LINGERING BRISK N TO NW WIND WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS
4-6C. TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST OVER THE E WHERE WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STRONGER. GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR
TUE/WED...BUT TEMPS EVEN ON WED WILL STILL END UP BLO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD/TOWARDS 16-18Z TO BE IN
THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN THESE SHOWERS AS THERE WILL
BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR THEM TO OVERCOME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240905
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH
SLIDES JUST SW OF THE CWA TODAY AND A SFC LOW MOVES TO ERN SD BY 12Z
FRI.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND ONLY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE W.

SHOULD START TODAY WITH W-WNW SFC WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND QUICK WARMING DUE TO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE DOMINATING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE SW WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS IS SHOWN BY
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /WILL LESS
THAN 15KTS/ ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10KTS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WILDFIRE CONCERNS
LOWER EVEN AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR E UPPER MI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA TODAY...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CURRENTLY DOMINATES NAMERICA AS A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WELL N INTO NCNTRL CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA DOWN THRU THE ERN CONUS.
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW FOR JULY HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL ROLL EASTWARD...CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND
RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER
NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND
EVENTUALLY OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL
QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN
WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED
TO THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM JULY AVG IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN
AREA. MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FINAL DAYS OF JULY...BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
UPPER LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
COOLEST WEATHER SUN/MON. THE COOL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY
INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST ON RECORD HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION.
AS FOR PCPN...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRI...THEN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
REACH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO THE SW AND W...IT
WOULD SEEM THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE WAVES SHOULD STAY W
AND SW OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY DRY
NOW BRING PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA FRI. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL EVEN CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP A SHORTWAVE FROM CONVECTION IT
DEVELOPS IN ND/MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD FURTHER AID THE SPREAD
OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI FRI DESPITE PCPN OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR FRI TO CHC W AND
SCHC CNTRL IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER/MUCH
GREATER COLUMN MOISTURE THAN TODAY...MID DAY 850MB TEMPS FRI WILL BE
A FEW C HIGHER THAN TODAY. IN THE END...MAX TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW...STILL ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...THAT WILL
BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC
PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY PASSING
THRU THE AREA SUN. AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO...MODELS STILL INDICATE
2 PERIODS OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING...ONE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY. THIS SUGGESTS
THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS WITH THE MAIN RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PCPN...THOUGH THE SECOND PERIOD WILL LIKELY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL
AS FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM NW MN ACROSS NRN WI. ON SAT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN PCPN FCST. WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER CHC
OF PCPN IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...THE
AFTN HRS MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF WAVE. HOWEVER...MAY
STILL END UP WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES UNDER GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT WITH SFC TROFFING OVER THE
AREA. ON SUN...WITH PCPN THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
WITH SFC LOW DROPPING SE OF THE AREA...SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL AS
BRISK NRLY WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT OF
THE 50S UNLESS IT`S WARMER TO START THE DAY BEFORE WINDS REALLY
INCREASE. IN FACT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE N...TEMPS MAY END UP FALLING
SOME DURING THE DAY UNDER STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET
ABOVE 70F.

MON-WED...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGEST TROF AXIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW MON
THRU WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO DROP THRU THE AREA
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA. WHILE
PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH SMALLER SCALE WAVES AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
VERY LOW...THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF THAT SHORTWAVES MAY DROP THRU/NEAR THE AREA BOTH TUE AND
WED...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE MON
UNDER A LINGERING BRISK N TO NW WIND WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS
4-6C. TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST OVER THE E WHERE WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STRONGER. GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR
TUE/WED...BUT TEMPS EVEN ON WED WILL STILL END UP BLO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240905
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
505 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH
SLIDES JUST SW OF THE CWA TODAY AND A SFC LOW MOVES TO ERN SD BY 12Z
FRI.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND ONLY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE W.

SHOULD START TODAY WITH W-WNW SFC WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND QUICK WARMING DUE TO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE DOMINATING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE SW WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS IS SHOWN BY
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /WILL LESS
THAN 15KTS/ ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10KTS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WILDFIRE CONCERNS
LOWER EVEN AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR E UPPER MI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA TODAY...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CURRENTLY DOMINATES NAMERICA AS A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WELL N INTO NCNTRL CANADA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA DOWN THRU THE ERN CONUS.
AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW FOR JULY HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL ROLL EASTWARD...CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND
RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER
NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND
EVENTUALLY OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL
QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN
WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED
TO THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS
AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB
HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE
LONG TERM JULY AVG IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN
AREA. MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FINAL DAYS OF JULY...BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
UPPER LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
COOLEST WEATHER SUN/MON. THE COOL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY
INTO THE TOP 10 COLDEST ON RECORD HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION.
AS FOR PCPN...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRI...THEN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
REACH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH WARM FRONT WELL OFF TO THE SW AND W...IT
WOULD SEEM THAT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE WAVES SHOULD STAY W
AND SW OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY DRY
NOW BRING PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA FRI. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN
MODEL EVEN CONVECTIVELY SPINS UP A SHORTWAVE FROM CONVECTION IT
DEVELOPS IN ND/MANITOBA TONIGHT. THIS WOULD FURTHER AID THE SPREAD
OF PCPN INTO UPPER MI FRI DESPITE PCPN OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY.
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR FRI TO CHC W AND
SCHC CNTRL IN THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER/MUCH
GREATER COLUMN MOISTURE THAN TODAY...MID DAY 850MB TEMPS FRI WILL BE
A FEW C HIGHER THAN TODAY. IN THE END...MAX TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW...STILL ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...THAT WILL
BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC
PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW ENERGY PASSING
THRU THE AREA SUN. AS WAS THE CASE 24HRS AGO...MODELS STILL INDICATE
2 PERIODS OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING...ONE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY. THIS SUGGESTS
THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS WITH THE MAIN RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PCPN...THOUGH THE SECOND PERIOD WILL LIKELY OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL
AS FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM NW MN ACROSS NRN WI. ON SAT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN PCPN FCST. WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BETTER CHC
OF PCPN IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE...THE
AFTN HRS MAY END UP MOSTLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF WAVE. HOWEVER...MAY
STILL END UP WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES UNDER GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT WITH SFC TROFFING OVER THE
AREA. ON SUN...WITH PCPN THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
WITH SFC LOW DROPPING SE OF THE AREA...SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL AS
BRISK NRLY WINDS DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT OF
THE 50S UNLESS IT`S WARMER TO START THE DAY BEFORE WINDS REALLY
INCREASE. IN FACT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE N...TEMPS MAY END UP FALLING
SOME DURING THE DAY UNDER STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF
CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET
ABOVE 70F.

MON-WED...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGEST TROF AXIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE FLOW MON
THRU WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO DROP THRU THE AREA
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA. WHILE
PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH SMALLER SCALE WAVES AT THIS TIME RANGE IS
VERY LOW...THERE ARE SOME CONSISTENT INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF THAT SHORTWAVES MAY DROP THRU/NEAR THE AREA BOTH TUE AND
WED...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE MON
UNDER A LINGERING BRISK N TO NW WIND WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS
4-6C. TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST OVER THE E WHERE WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE STRONGER. GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR
TUE/WED...BUT TEMPS EVEN ON WED WILL STILL END UP BLO NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 240810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH
SLIDES JUST SW OF THE CWA TODAY AND A SFC LOW MOVES TO ERN SD BY 12Z
FRI.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND ONLY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE W.

SHOULD START TODAY WITH W-WNW SFC WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND QUICK WARMING DUE TO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE DOMINATING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE SW WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS IS SHOWN BY
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /WILL LESS
THAN 15KTS/ ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10KTS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WILDFIRE CONCERNS
LOWER EVEN AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR E UPPER MI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA TODAY...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 240810
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC HIGH
SLIDES JUST SW OF THE CWA TODAY AND A SFC LOW MOVES TO ERN SD BY 12Z
FRI.

WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND ONLY MINOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW...NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO WRN
UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW TO THE W.

SHOULD START TODAY WITH W-WNW SFC WINDS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND QUICK WARMING DUE TO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION...WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE DOMINATING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH TO THE SW WILL
PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS IS SHOWN BY
MOST HIGH-RES MODELS. ASIDE FROM LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /WILL LESS
THAN 15KTS/ ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AT LESS THAN 10KTS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WILDFIRE CONCERNS
LOWER EVEN AS MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT OVER
INTERIOR E UPPER MI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT.

WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING INTO THE CWA TODAY...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 240524
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL
SWEEP INTO ALBERTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TO SINK SLIGHTLY INTO JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTING A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S-40S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES INLAND WEST. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE COLDER LOCATIONS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
WRENCH IN THE FORECAST. WILL WE SEE CLOUD COVER CLEARING THIS
EVENING OUT WEST...HENCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY
FROST...OR WILL WE SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT?

WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE US CLEAR AND DRY...THE NAM HANGS ONTO THIS
CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE IN THE WEST...AND THEN BRINGS A QUICK BATCH OF
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EASTERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE BRINGING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...
THINKING THIS COULD SPUR OFF SOME PATCHY FOG. NORMALLY WOULD THINK
THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AGAIN...BUT WHEN OTHER MODELS WERE
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE NAM CAUGHT ON TO
SOME FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS...AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED WITH THE NAMS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WEST TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCOMING HIGH...AND I THINK THE CU
FIELD WILL DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER IT COULD BE
CATCHING ONTO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...PLAYED IT SAFE AND
KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MORNING...AND HAVE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE WI BORDER...EAST...AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW.


HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ABOUND. 850MB TEMPS OF 8C TO 11C
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND. THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY /RH IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 20-30 PERCENT RANGE/ LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS AT BAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC. THOUGH THERE IS WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THINK IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCES OUT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 240524
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL
SWEEP INTO ALBERTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TO SINK SLIGHTLY INTO JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTING A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S-40S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES INLAND WEST. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE COLDER LOCATIONS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
WRENCH IN THE FORECAST. WILL WE SEE CLOUD COVER CLEARING THIS
EVENING OUT WEST...HENCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY
FROST...OR WILL WE SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT?

WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE US CLEAR AND DRY...THE NAM HANGS ONTO THIS
CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE IN THE WEST...AND THEN BRINGS A QUICK BATCH OF
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EASTERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE BRINGING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...
THINKING THIS COULD SPUR OFF SOME PATCHY FOG. NORMALLY WOULD THINK
THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AGAIN...BUT WHEN OTHER MODELS WERE
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE NAM CAUGHT ON TO
SOME FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS...AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED WITH THE NAMS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WEST TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCOMING HIGH...AND I THINK THE CU
FIELD WILL DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER IT COULD BE
CATCHING ONTO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...PLAYED IT SAFE AND
KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MORNING...AND HAVE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE WI BORDER...EAST...AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW.


HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ABOUND. 850MB TEMPS OF 8C TO 11C
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND. THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY /RH IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 20-30 PERCENT RANGE/ LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS AT BAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC. THOUGH THERE IS WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THINK IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCES OUT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 232325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL
SWEEP INTO ALBERTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TO SINK SLIGHTLY INTO JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTING A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S-40S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES INLAND WEST. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE COLDER LOCATIONS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
WRENCH IN THE FORECAST. WILL WE SEE CLOUD COVER CLEARING THIS
EVENING OUT WEST...HENCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY
FROST...OR WILL WE SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT?

WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE US CLEAR AND DRY...THE NAM HANGS ONTO THIS
CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE IN THE WEST...AND THEN BRINGS A QUICK BATCH OF
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EASTERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE BRINGING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...
THINKING THIS COULD SPUR OFF SOME PATCHY FOG. NORMALLY WOULD THINK
THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AGAIN...BUT WHEN OTHER MODELS WERE
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE NAM CAUGHT ON TO
SOME FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS...AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED WITH THE NAMS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WEST TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCOMING HIGH...AND I THINK THE CU
FIELD WILL DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER IT COULD BE
CATCHING ONTO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...PLAYED IT SAFE AND
KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MORNING...AND HAVE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE WI BORDER...EAST...AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW.


HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ABOUND. 850MB TEMPS OF 8C TO 11C
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND. THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY /RH IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 20-30 PERCENT RANGE/ LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS AT BAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC. THOUGH THERE IS WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THINK IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCES OUT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 232325
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL
SWEEP INTO ALBERTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TO SINK SLIGHTLY INTO JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTING A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S-40S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES INLAND WEST. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE COLDER LOCATIONS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
WRENCH IN THE FORECAST. WILL WE SEE CLOUD COVER CLEARING THIS
EVENING OUT WEST...HENCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY
FROST...OR WILL WE SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT?

WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE US CLEAR AND DRY...THE NAM HANGS ONTO THIS
CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE IN THE WEST...AND THEN BRINGS A QUICK BATCH OF
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EASTERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE BRINGING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...
THINKING THIS COULD SPUR OFF SOME PATCHY FOG. NORMALLY WOULD THINK
THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AGAIN...BUT WHEN OTHER MODELS WERE
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE NAM CAUGHT ON TO
SOME FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS...AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED WITH THE NAMS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WEST TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCOMING HIGH...AND I THINK THE CU
FIELD WILL DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER IT COULD BE
CATCHING ONTO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...PLAYED IT SAFE AND
KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MORNING...AND HAVE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE WI BORDER...EAST...AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW.


HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ABOUND. 850MB TEMPS OF 8C TO 11C
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND. THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY /RH IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 20-30 PERCENT RANGE/ LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS AT BAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC. THOUGH THERE IS WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THINK IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCES OUT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 231958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL
SWEEP INTO ALBERTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TO SINK SLIGHTLY INTO JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTING A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S-40S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES INLAND WEST. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE COLDER LOCATIONS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
WRENCH IN THE FORECAST. WILL WE SEE CLOUD COVER CLEARING THIS
EVENING OUT WEST...HENCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY
FROST...OR WILL WE SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT?

WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE US CLEAR AND DRY...THE NAM HANGS ONTO THIS
CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE IN THE WEST...AND THEN BRINGS A QUICK BATCH OF
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EASTERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE BRINGING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...
THINKING THIS COULD SPUR OFF SOME PATCHY FOG. NORMALLY WOULD THINK
THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AGAIN...BUT WHEN OTHER MODELS WERE
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE NAM CAUGHT ON TO
SOME FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS...AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED WITH THE NAMS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WEST TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCOMING HIGH...AND I THINK THE CU
FIELD WILL DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER IT COULD BE
CATCHING ONTO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...PLAYED IT SAFE AND
KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MORNING...AND HAVE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE WI BORDER...EAST...AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW.


HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ABOUND. 850MB TEMPS OF 8C TO 11C
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND. THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY /RH IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 20-30 PERCENT RANGE/ LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS AT BAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC. THOUGH THERE IS WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THINK IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCES OUT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO UPPER MI...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KCMX MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER 6Z WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.
FOR NOW...DROPPED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 MILES DURING THIS TIME. LATER
SHIFTS MAY ADJUST ONCE THEY OBSERVE FOG DEVELOPING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 231958
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL
SWEEP INTO ALBERTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TO SINK SLIGHTLY INTO JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTING A PRETTY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S-40S...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES INLAND WEST. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE COLDER LOCATIONS. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT
WRENCH IN THE FORECAST. WILL WE SEE CLOUD COVER CLEARING THIS
EVENING OUT WEST...HENCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY
FROST...OR WILL WE SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT?

WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE US CLEAR AND DRY...THE NAM HANGS ONTO THIS
CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE IN THE WEST...AND THEN BRINGS A QUICK BATCH OF
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THE EASTERN CWA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE BRINGING INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN...
THINKING THIS COULD SPUR OFF SOME PATCHY FOG. NORMALLY WOULD THINK
THE NAM IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AGAIN...BUT WHEN OTHER MODELS WERE
COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...THE NAM CAUGHT ON TO
SOME FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED NEAR MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS...AND SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED WITH THE NAMS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE WEST TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCOMING HIGH...AND I THINK THE CU
FIELD WILL DIMINISH WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER IT COULD BE
CATCHING ONTO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...PLAYED IT SAFE AND
KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MORNING...AND HAVE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE WI BORDER...EAST...AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW.


HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AS THE AIRMASS
MODIFIES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ABOUND. 850MB TEMPS OF 8C TO 11C
WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND. THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY /RH IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 20-30 PERCENT RANGE/ LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS AT BAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC. THOUGH THERE IS WEAK LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THINK IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE LEFT ANY CHANCES OUT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

SFC HI PRES UNDER UPR RDG WL BRING DRY WX INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI...
THEN SHOWER/TS CHCS WL BE INCRSG BY LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND AS SW
FLOW AHEAD OF CLOSED LO NOW OFF THE PAC NW AND MOVING ACRS SRN
CANADA BRINGS A RETURN OF MORE HUMID AIR. MUCH COOLER AIR WL INVADE
THE UPR LKS SUN THRU NEXT WEEK ONCE THE DIGGING SHRTWV SLIDES
ESEWD THRU THE GREAT LKS AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COOLER CNDN AIR UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF.

THU NGT...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRI MRNG. RETURN SW FLOW BTWN THIS HI AND LO PRES DVLPG IN THE
NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF CLOSED LO MOVING INTO SCENTRAL CANADA IS
FCST TO ADVECT MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT RISING
TOWARD 1.25 INCH OVER THE W BY 12Z FRI. COMBINATION OF THIS
RETURNING MSTR/AT LEAST PTCHY CLDS AND SW FLOW WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
FALL OF TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 40S OVER THE INTERIOR E UNDER THE LINGERING DRY AIR.

FRI...AS CLOSED LO DRIFTS INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND SFC HI PRES
DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST...SW FLOW WL PUMP PWAT BACK TO ARND 1.5
INCHES...RESULTING IN MORE WAD CLDS. MODELS DO DIFFER ON MAGNITUDE
OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/EXTENT OF DEEP MOISTENING/QPF. ALTHOUGH
THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS GENERATE PCPN OVER MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARP CAPPING INVRN THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWERS. WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF/12Z NAM ARE DRY...THE 12Z CNDN MODEL IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE AT GENERATING PCPN...WITH AS MUCH AS 0.50-0.75 INCH
FCST OVER THE W THRU THE DAY WITH PWAT FCST AS HI AS 1.75 INCH AND
DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS. LOCATION OF SHARPER WARM FNT
WELL TO THE SW THAT WOULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE SGNFT MSTR CNVGC WL
RESTRICT POPS. SINCE UPR MI IS FCST TO BE UNDER SFC-H85 RDG
AXIS/ACYC FLOW BTWN THAT WARM FNT AND ANOTHER FNT OVER ONTARIO THAT
WL BE INFLUENCED BY UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET MAX PASSING
THRU ONTARIO...SUSPECT THE DRIER MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FCSTS.

FRI NGT THRU SUN...CLOSED LO OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN ON FRI NGT IS FCST
TO SLIDE SE AND THRU WI ON SUN. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON QPF OVER UPR MI DURING THE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT TIME
WHEN THE SHRTWV/SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING IS STILL FARTHER TO THE W
BUT WHEN HIER PWAT REMAINS OVHD IN THE GENERAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV. THERE APPEARS TO A BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PASSING W-E ARND 12Z SAT...
SO SOME HIER CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED ATTM. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS LOOKS
TO BE LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN WHEN UPR MI IS CLOSER TO AND ON THE CYC
SIDE OF THE SHRTWV TRACK AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WOULD IMPACT THE AREA. AS THE SHRTWV DIGS TO THE SE ON
SUN AND SFC LO TAKES SHAPE OVER SRN LOWER MI TO THE E OF TRAILING
SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...A STRENGTHENING N WIND WL
DVLP OVER THE UPR LKS AND ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS.
IN FACT...TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL THRU THE 50S ON
SUN NEAR LK SUP WITH SHARP UPSLOPE N WIND OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS.

EXTENDED...MODELS FCST H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 3-5C ON MON UNDER
DEEPENING UPR TROF/STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW BTWN LO PRES OVER THE SE
GREAT LKS AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPS ARE FCST
TO MODERATE TO 10-13C BY NEXT WED...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A BIT BY
MID WEEK FM THE WELL BLO NORMAL VALUES ON MON. ALTHOUGH SHARP CYC
FLOW ON MON IS FCST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU WED AS SFC LO PRES LIFTS
NWD THRU QUEBEC...LINGERING THERMAL TROF/CYC NATURE OF THE FLOW/
SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE UPR TROF AXIS TO THE E OF THE CWA MAY
SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS...MAINLY AWAY FM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF THE LKS EARLY IN THE WEEK WHEN HEIGHTS ARE LOWER CLOSER
TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC LO. RIGHT NOW...THE UPR TROF/AXIS OF
LOWER HGTS IS FCST TO BE FAR ENUF TO THE E TO LIMIT THESE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO UPPER MI...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KCMX MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER 6Z WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.
FOR NOW...DROPPED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 MILES DURING THIS TIME. LATER
SHIFTS MAY ADJUST ONCE THEY OBSERVE FOG DEVELOPING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU SAT NGT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA UNDER
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 231736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA HAS LED TO ERN NAMERICA TROF AMPLIFICATION AND THUS A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL MOVE E...
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHY
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY
OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED TO THE SE. THIS AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO
BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM JULY AVG IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. MAGNITUDE OF
ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF JULY...COOL
WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPPER LAKES REGION
DURING THE EARLY THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THE COOL
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY INTO THE TOP 10 COOLEST ON RECORD
HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER 2-3 DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING THU...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE ERN TROF WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA IN NRN ONTARIO TO THE N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OVER UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRES LINGERING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DRY AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 800-750MB WHICH
YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AWAY FROM LAKE
MODERATION. GIVEN DRY COLUMN...INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST LOWER
DWPTS OBTAINED FROM THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

THU NIGHT/FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS
FCST TO ROLL INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SW AND W...BELIEVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
WAVES WILL STAY W AND SW OF UPPER MI...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WITH TIME FROM W TO E. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL
LIMITED CLOUD COVER...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS THU
NIGHT (UPPER 40S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS). HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THU.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI
WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS
INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING ARE INDICATED...ONE SAT MORNING AND THE
OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...SUGGESTING THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS
WITH BEST SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHC POPS FRI NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE W...AND THEN CHC
POPS SAT THRU SUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IF
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON TIMING. THERE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING SUN...SO PCPN SHOULD
WIND DOWN/END FROM NW TO SE SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDEX AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUN
MORNING AS WELL. SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL WITH PCPN FOR PART OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT
OF THE 50S. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 70F...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

MON/TUE...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS SUGGEST TROF AXIS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...FCST WILL NOT INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN
GIVEN LACK OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO UPPER MI...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KCMX MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER 6Z WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.
FOR NOW...DROPPED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 MILES DURING THIS TIME. LATER
SHIFTS MAY ADJUST ONCE THEY OBSERVE FOG DEVELOPING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 231736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA HAS LED TO ERN NAMERICA TROF AMPLIFICATION AND THUS A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL MOVE E...
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHY
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY
OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED TO THE SE. THIS AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO
BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM JULY AVG IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. MAGNITUDE OF
ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF JULY...COOL
WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPPER LAKES REGION
DURING THE EARLY THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THE COOL
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY INTO THE TOP 10 COOLEST ON RECORD
HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER 2-3 DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING THU...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE ERN TROF WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA IN NRN ONTARIO TO THE N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OVER UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRES LINGERING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DRY AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 800-750MB WHICH
YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AWAY FROM LAKE
MODERATION. GIVEN DRY COLUMN...INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST LOWER
DWPTS OBTAINED FROM THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

THU NIGHT/FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS
FCST TO ROLL INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SW AND W...BELIEVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
WAVES WILL STAY W AND SW OF UPPER MI...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WITH TIME FROM W TO E. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL
LIMITED CLOUD COVER...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS THU
NIGHT (UPPER 40S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS). HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THU.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI
WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS
INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING ARE INDICATED...ONE SAT MORNING AND THE
OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...SUGGESTING THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS
WITH BEST SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHC POPS FRI NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE W...AND THEN CHC
POPS SAT THRU SUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IF
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON TIMING. THERE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING SUN...SO PCPN SHOULD
WIND DOWN/END FROM NW TO SE SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDEX AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUN
MORNING AS WELL. SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL WITH PCPN FOR PART OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT
OF THE 50S. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 70F...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

MON/TUE...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS SUGGEST TROF AXIS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...FCST WILL NOT INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN
GIVEN LACK OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO UPPER MI...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KCMX MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AFTER 6Z WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.
FOR NOW...DROPPED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 MILES DURING THIS TIME. LATER
SHIFTS MAY ADJUST ONCE THEY OBSERVE FOG DEVELOPING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 231130
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA HAS LED TO ERN NAMERICA TROF AMPLIFICATION AND THUS A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL MOVE E...
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHY
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY
OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED TO THE SE. THIS AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO
BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM JULY AVG IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. MAGNITUDE OF
ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF JULY...COOL
WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPPER LAKES REGION
DURING THE EARLY THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THE COOL
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY INTO THE TOP 10 COOLEST ON RECORD
HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER 2-3 DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING THU...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE ERN TROF WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA IN NRN ONTARIO TO THE N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OVER UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRES LINGERING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DRY AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 800-750MB WHICH
YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AWAY FROM LAKE
MODERATION. GIVEN DRY COLUMN...INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST LOWER
DWPTS OBTAINED FROM THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

THU NIGHT/FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS
FCST TO ROLL INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SW AND W...BELIEVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
WAVES WILL STAY W AND SW OF UPPER MI...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WITH TIME FROM W TO E. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL
LIMITED CLOUD COVER...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS THU
NIGHT (UPPER 40S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS). HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THU.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI
WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS
INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING ARE INDICATED...ONE SAT MORNING AND THE
OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...SUGGESTING THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS
WITH BEST SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHC POPS FRI NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE W...AND THEN CHC
POPS SAT THRU SUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IF
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON TIMING. THERE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING SUN...SO PCPN SHOULD
WIND DOWN/END FROM NW TO SE SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDEX AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUN
MORNING AS WELL. SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL WITH PCPN FOR PART OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT
OF THE 50S. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 70F...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

MON/TUE...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS SUGGEST TROF AXIS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...FCST WILL NOT INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN
GIVEN LACK OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 231130
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA HAS LED TO ERN NAMERICA TROF AMPLIFICATION AND THUS A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL MOVE E...
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHY
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY
OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED TO THE SE. THIS AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO
BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM JULY AVG IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. MAGNITUDE OF
ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF JULY...COOL
WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPPER LAKES REGION
DURING THE EARLY THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THE COOL
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY INTO THE TOP 10 COOLEST ON RECORD
HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER 2-3 DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING THU...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE ERN TROF WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA IN NRN ONTARIO TO THE N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OVER UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRES LINGERING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DRY AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 800-750MB WHICH
YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AWAY FROM LAKE
MODERATION. GIVEN DRY COLUMN...INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST LOWER
DWPTS OBTAINED FROM THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

THU NIGHT/FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS
FCST TO ROLL INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SW AND W...BELIEVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
WAVES WILL STAY W AND SW OF UPPER MI...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WITH TIME FROM W TO E. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL
LIMITED CLOUD COVER...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS THU
NIGHT (UPPER 40S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS). HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THU.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI
WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS
INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING ARE INDICATED...ONE SAT MORNING AND THE
OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...SUGGESTING THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS
WITH BEST SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHC POPS FRI NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE W...AND THEN CHC
POPS SAT THRU SUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IF
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON TIMING. THERE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING SUN...SO PCPN SHOULD
WIND DOWN/END FROM NW TO SE SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDEX AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUN
MORNING AS WELL. SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL WITH PCPN FOR PART OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT
OF THE 50S. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 70F...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

MON/TUE...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS SUGGEST TROF AXIS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...FCST WILL NOT INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN
GIVEN LACK OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230851
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA HAS LED TO ERN NAMERICA TROF AMPLIFICATION AND THUS A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL MOVE E...
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHY
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY
OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED TO THE SE. THIS AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO
BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM JULY AVG IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. MAGNITUDE OF
ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF JULY...COOL
WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPPER LAKES REGION
DURING THE EARLY THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THE COOL
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY INTO THE TOP 10 COOLEST ON RECORD
HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER 2-3 DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING THU...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE ERN TROF WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA IN NRN ONTARIO TO THE N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OVER UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRES LINGERING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DRY AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 800-750MB WHICH
YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AWAY FROM LAKE
MODERATION. GIVEN DRY COLUMN...INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST LOWER
DWPTS OBTAINED FROM THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

THU NIGHT/FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS
FCST TO ROLL INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SW AND W...BELIEVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
WAVES WILL STAY W AND SW OF UPPER MI...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WITH TIME FROM W TO E. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL
LIMITED CLOUD COVER...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS THU
NIGHT (UPPER 40S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS). HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THU.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI
WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS
INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING ARE INDICATED...ONE SAT MORNING AND THE
OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...SUGGESTING THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS
WITH BEST SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHC POPS FRI NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE W...AND THEN CHC
POPS SAT THRU SUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IF
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON TIMING. THERE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING SUN...SO PCPN SHOULD
WIND DOWN/END FROM NW TO SE SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDEX AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUN
MORNING AS WELL. SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL WITH PCPN FOR PART OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT
OF THE 50S. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 70F...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

MON/TUE...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS SUGGEST TROF AXIS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...FCST WILL NOT INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN
GIVEN LACK OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE SOME BR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230851
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA HAS LED TO ERN NAMERICA TROF AMPLIFICATION AND THUS A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER OVER THE UPPER LAKES. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL MOVE E...
CUTTING THRU THE RIDGE AXIS AND RESULTING IN SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHY
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL REMAIN OVER NCNTRL CANADA. AS THE
MIDLEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND OPENS UP...THE POSITIVE ANOMALY
OVER NCNTRL CANADA WILL QUICKLY RECONNECT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE SIGNIFICANT REAMPLIFICATION OF
THE ERN NAMERICA TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY THE REMNANT MID
LEVEL LOW ENERGY FORCED TO THE SE. THIS AMPLIFIED TROF WILL BE
ANOTHER UNUSUALLY DEEP TROF FOR JULY AS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO
BOTTOM OUT 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM JULY AVG IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIAN AREA. MAGNITUDE OF
ANOMALIES SUGGEST SOME RECORD BREAKING COOL WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ERN CONUS. THUS...AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF JULY...COOL
WEATHER/BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE UPPER LAKES REGION
DURING THE EARLY THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. THE COOL
WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT THIS JULY INTO THE TOP 10 COOLEST ON RECORD
HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE LOCATION. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER 2-3 DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL LOW OR REMNANT ENERGY PASSES THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEGINNING THU...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE ERN TROF WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA IN NRN ONTARIO TO THE N AND E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OVER UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH
PRES LINGERING OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DRY AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING UPWARDS OF 800-750MB WHICH
YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AWAY FROM LAKE
MODERATION. GIVEN DRY COLUMN...INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST LOWER
DWPTS OBTAINED FROM THE EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

THU NIGHT/FRI...MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST IS
FCST TO ROLL INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS FORCES WEAKENING OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE INDICATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF TO THE SW AND W...BELIEVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
WAVES WILL STAY W AND SW OF UPPER MI...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WITH TIME FROM W TO E. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL
LIMITED CLOUD COVER...FAVORED THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS THU
NIGHT (UPPER 40S IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS). HIGHS FRI SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THU.

OVER THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER SASKATCHEWAN FRI
WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...MODELS
INDICATE A COMPLEX/DISORGANIZED SFC PATTERN WITH AT LEAST ONE WEAK
SFC LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF PERIODS
OF BETTER DEEP LAYER FORCING ARE INDICATED...ONE SAT MORNING AND THE
OTHER SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...SUGGESTING THESE WILL BE THE PERIODS
WITH BEST SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHC POPS FRI NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE W...AND THEN CHC
POPS SAT THRU SUN WITH HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IF
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON TIMING. THERE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY EXITING SUN...SO PCPN SHOULD
WIND DOWN/END FROM NW TO SE SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH NEGATIVE
SHOWALTER INDEX AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUN
MORNING AS WELL. SUN COULD BE QUITE COOL WITH PCPN FOR PART OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. LAKESIDE LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE TEMPS GET OUT
OF THE 50S. EVEN WELL INLAND...TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE 70F...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.

MON/TUE...AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...PCPN FCST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AXIS OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF SETS UP AND/OR WHETHER A MID LEVEL LOW
ENDS UP FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS SUGGEST TROF AXIS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH E TO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT...FCST WILL NOT INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF PCPN
GIVEN LACK OF A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE SOME BR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 230813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE SOME BR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 230813
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

CURRENTLY...THE CWA IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM A LOW JUST E OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS BETWEEN A
1012MB TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SRN MANITOBA. WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY QUIET. FOCUSED ON
SFC MOISTURE TODAY AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

ON THAT NOTE...DECENT MIXING AND AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
DEW PTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AS TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND
70S...RESULTING IN INLAND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO
MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
10KTS /A COUPLE KTS LOWER W AND HIGHER E/ WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
12KTS W TO 20KTS E.

WITH THE SFC HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WI TONIGHT...WILL NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERHEAD
AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY /PWATS AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR AROUND 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL/. WENT WITH THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
ERN GOGEBIC COUNTY WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE SOME BR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A SERIES OF
WEAK LOWS AND TROUGHS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 230526
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS/AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS IN SOME
PLACES/ WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z TONIGHT AS THE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HEADS EASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTS OPTED NOT
TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF EVENING SHIFT SEES
HIGHER AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS THEY CAN UPGRADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS OF 20Z WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOWWINDS TO LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE EXITING LOW...HOWEVER DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST WEST AND CENTRAL. DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF ANYTHING
TODAY...GENERALLY ONLY WITH THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING BECAUSE
OF SEVERAL REPORTS OF FOG FROM SHIPS/OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRIMARILY DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...COOLEST INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ON LAST NOTE IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THERE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OF SEICHE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH SEICHE ACTIVITY/WATER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS...WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...EXPECT THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ON
BEACHES WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CURRENT CHANNELS. THIS INCLUDES
BEACHES ALONG ALGER COUNTY AND MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE. KEPT THE
SWIM RISK MODERATE FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DESPITE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. KEPT A
MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE SOME BR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07
MARINE...MCD









000
FXUS63 KMQT 230526
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS/AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS IN SOME
PLACES/ WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z TONIGHT AS THE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HEADS EASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTS OPTED NOT
TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF EVENING SHIFT SEES
HIGHER AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS THEY CAN UPGRADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS OF 20Z WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOWWINDS TO LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE EXITING LOW...HOWEVER DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST WEST AND CENTRAL. DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF ANYTHING
TODAY...GENERALLY ONLY WITH THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING BECAUSE
OF SEVERAL REPORTS OF FOG FROM SHIPS/OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRIMARILY DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...COOLEST INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ON LAST NOTE IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THERE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OF SEICHE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH SEICHE ACTIVITY/WATER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS...WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...EXPECT THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ON
BEACHES WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CURRENT CHANNELS. THIS INCLUDES
BEACHES ALONG ALGER COUNTY AND MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE. KEPT THE
SWIM RISK MODERATE FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DESPITE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. KEPT A
MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE SOME BR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07
MARINE...MCD










000
FXUS63 KMQT 222227
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
627 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS/AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS IN SOME
PLACES/ WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z TONIGHT AS THE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HEADS EASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTS OPTED NOT
TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF EVENING SHIFT SEES
HIGHER AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS THEY CAN UPGRADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS OF 20Z WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOWWINDS TO LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE EXITING LOW...HOWEVER DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST WEST AND CENTRAL. DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF ANYTHING
TODAY...GENERALLY ONLY WITH THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING BECAUSE
OF SEVERAL REPORTS OF FOG FROM SHIPS/OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRIMARILY DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...COOLEST INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ON LAST NOTE IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THERE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OF SEICHE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH SEICHE ACTIVITY/WATER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS...WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...EXPECT THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ON
BEACHES WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CURRENT CHANNELS. THIS INCLUDES
BEACHES ALONG ALGER COUNTY AND MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE. KEPT THE
SWIM RISK MODERATE FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DESPITE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. KEPT A
MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A HIGH MVFR DECK OR LOW VFR DECK WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AFTER MID EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07
MARINE...MCD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 222227
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
627 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS/AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS IN SOME
PLACES/ WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z TONIGHT AS THE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HEADS EASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTS OPTED NOT
TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF EVENING SHIFT SEES
HIGHER AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS THEY CAN UPGRADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS OF 20Z WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOWWINDS TO LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE EXITING LOW...HOWEVER DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST WEST AND CENTRAL. DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF ANYTHING
TODAY...GENERALLY ONLY WITH THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING BECAUSE
OF SEVERAL REPORTS OF FOG FROM SHIPS/OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRIMARILY DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...COOLEST INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ON LAST NOTE IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THERE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OF SEICHE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH SEICHE ACTIVITY/WATER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS...WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...EXPECT THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ON
BEACHES WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CURRENT CHANNELS. THIS INCLUDES
BEACHES ALONG ALGER COUNTY AND MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE. KEPT THE
SWIM RISK MODERATE FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DESPITE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. KEPT A
MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A HIGH MVFR DECK OR LOW VFR DECK WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES AFTER MID EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...07
MARINE...MCD








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS/AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS IN SOME
PLACES/ WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z TONIGHT AS THE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HEADS EASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTS OPTED NOT
TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF EVENING SHIFT SEES
HIGHER AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS THEY CAN UPGRADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS OF 20Z WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOWWINDS TO LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE EXITING LOW...HOWEVER DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST WEST AND CENTRAL. DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF ANYTHING
TODAY...GENERALLY ONLY WITH THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING BECAUSE
OF SEVERAL REPORTS OF FOG FROM SHIPS/OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRIMARILY DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...COOLEST INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ON LAST NOTE IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THERE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OF SEICHE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH SEICHE ACTIVITY/WATER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS...WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...EXPECT THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ON
BEACHES WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CURRENT CHANNELS. THIS INCLUDES
BEACHES ALONG ALGER COUNTY AND MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE. KEPT THE
SWIM RISK MODERATE FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DESPITE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. KEPT A
MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PUSH THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL THREE SITES...FINALLY CALMING AFTER THE 00Z/6Z
TIME FRAME WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
CMX TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35-40KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15KTS LATE TONIGHT. KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...MCD








000
FXUS63 KMQT 222008
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS/AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS IN SOME
PLACES/ WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER MAINLY EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 3Z TONIGHT AS THE RISE/FALL COUPLET
HEADS EASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE GUSTS OPTED NOT
TO PUT UP A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF EVENING SHIFT SEES
HIGHER AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS THEY CAN UPGRADE. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AS OF 20Z WILL SETTLE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOWWINDS TO LIGHTEN UP CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE EXITING LOW...HOWEVER DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST WEST AND CENTRAL. DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF ANYTHING
TODAY...GENERALLY ONLY WITH THE FRONT. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EAST UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST ON EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE EVENING BECAUSE
OF SEVERAL REPORTS OF FOG FROM SHIPS/OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT PRIMARILY DECREASING CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...COOLEST INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ON LAST NOTE IS WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY THERE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OF SEICHE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. WITH SEICHE ACTIVITY/WATER
LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS...WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE TONIGHT...AND WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET...EXPECT THAT RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ON
BEACHES WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CURRENT CHANNELS. THIS INCLUDES
BEACHES ALONG ALGER COUNTY AND MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE. KEPT THE
SWIM RISK MODERATE FOR ALGER AND MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...DESPITE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. KEPT A
MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A QUIET
END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS THE TOP OF/FLATTENS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER
RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IT WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REAMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF TO
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THE COOL UPPER TROUGH ALL BUT GUARANTEEING A TOP TEN
COLDEST JULY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PUSH THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL THREE SITES...FINALLY CALMING AFTER THE 00Z/6Z
TIME FRAME WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
CMX TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35-40KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15KTS LATE TONIGHT. KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
402 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE
FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...MCD







000
FXUS63 KMQT 221735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AND THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING THIS IS OVER DONE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR
NOW. INCREASED THE WINDS AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
LOW/ AND A DECENT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
HAVE LED TO WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40KT AT KCMX...AND IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S WEST AND CENTRAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PUSH THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL THREE SITES...FINALLY CALMING AFTER THE 00Z/6Z
TIME FRAME WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
CMX TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35-40KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15KTS LATE TONIGHT. KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
SHORT TERM...TITUS/MCD
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 221735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REMOVED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AND THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THINKING THIS IS OVER DONE SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR
NOW. INCREASED THE WINDS AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
LOW/ AND A DECENT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MOVING THROUGH THE CWA
HAVE LED TO WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40KT AT KCMX...AND IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S WEST AND CENTRAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PUSH THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL THREE SITES...FINALLY CALMING AFTER THE 00Z/6Z
TIME FRAME WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
CMX TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35-40KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 15KTS LATE TONIGHT. KIWD/KSAW WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY IN LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
SHORT TERM...TITUS/MCD
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 221432
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1032 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REDUCED POPS FOR TODAY IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH SHOWERS/T STORMS BEING
CONFINED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS. AS
OF 13Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER ISLE ROYAL IN NORTHWESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER MI AT 14Z WILL CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO QUEBEC
/BY ABOUT 00Z/. STILL SEEING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE
EAST THIS MORNING...SO WITH THE FRONT ASSUME THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP THEM GOING FOR NOW. WILL LOSE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THOUGH...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER/ISOLATED
AT BEST. MAIN THING WE HAVE BEEN SEEING WITH STORMS THIS MORNING IS
HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T
STORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE EXITING LOW COULD BRIEFLY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON RADAR.

WITH SEICHING DETECTED ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE EARLIER
STORMS...UPGRADED THE SWIM RISK TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. WITH STRONG WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE STORMS...FELT THIS WAS
WARRANTED. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KICK WAVES INTO THE 3 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE. ONSHORE FLOW...3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...AND POSSIBLE WATER LEVEL
FLUCTUATIONS WITH ANY SEICHING COULD DEVELOP STRONG RIP
CURRENTS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WITH PRE-EXISTING RIP CHANNELS
WITHIN THE SANDBARS. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY ALGER COUNTY BEACHES AND
MIDDLE BAY IN MARQUETTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE E TODAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COMPLEX WILL LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO EAST OF THE
LAKE BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE...WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE LINE.
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
SAT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.

ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS SE...CLEARING THE FOG FROM NW TO SE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 221139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE E TODAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COMPLEX WILL LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO EAST OF THE
LAKE BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE...WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE LINE.
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
SAT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.

ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS SE...CLEARING THE FOG FROM NW TO SE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








000
FXUS63 KMQT 221139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE E TODAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE COMPLEX WILL LEAD TO LOWERED CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO EAST OF THE
LAKE BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE...WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE LINE.
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
SAT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.

ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS SE...CLEARING THE FOG FROM NW TO SE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 220914
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
514 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHRA/TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE...LIKELY REACHING WRN UPPER INCLUDING KIWD/KCMX TOWARD
DAYBREAK...AROUND 08Z OR LATER. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
PCPN WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR. CONFIDENCE WITH STORMS AND WIND
DIRECTIONS IS LOW AFTER 09Z AT ALL SITES AS THE STORMS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAIN INFLUENCE OF A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
HOWEVER SHOULD VEER TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. MVFR
ARE MOST LIKELY AT CMX INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO EAST OF THE
LAKE BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE...WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE LINE.
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
SAT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.

ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS SE...CLEARING THE FOG FROM NW TO SE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS







000
FXUS63 KMQT 220914
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
514 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CWA...WHICH PUTS THE FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM ON THE NEXT 12 OR FEWER HOURS.

EXPECT THE MCS TO CONTINUE E IN LINE WITH NCEP HIGH-RES WRF ARW/NMM
AND NSSL WRF. SHOULD SEE OVERALL INTENSITY/SEVERITY OF STORMS
DECREASE AS THEY MOVE E DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN
CWA. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE
CWA /WHAT PORTION THAT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE/. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE BULK OT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z
WED...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z WED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RIDGE WILL BUILD N THRU THE ROCKIES INTO
NCNTRL CANADA...FORCING A TROF TO DEEPEN OVER ERN N AMERICA. FOR
UPPER MI...THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL BACK BLO NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. FLOW
WILL RELAX/DEAMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR
SOME WARMING...AND THEN THE ERN TROF WILL REAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL FALL BACK MORE NOTABLY
BLO NORMAL AS WE WRAP UP JULY. AS FOR PCPN...DRY WEATHER DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN TROF WILL
TREND MORE UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLOW RELAXES AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKS ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT WEEK...PCPN CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND WHERE AXIS OF AMPLIFYING TROF SETS UP AND HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROF BECOMES. WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS INDICATING A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING WED/THU...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO NCNTRL CANADA
SUPPORTS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO INTO THE ERN TROF THU WILL
PUSH A SFC TROF S TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE
WILL STAY N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE N AND E OF FCST AREA. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE TWO
UNDER WEAKENING GRADIENT NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH. IT
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR E OF KMQT WHERE TEMPS LAKESIDE
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH LONG FETCH OF WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE. IN THE INTERIOR...MIXING TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS
YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. 850MB TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THU...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INTERIOR MAX TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F. UNDER A DRY AIR MASS
(PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-50PCT OF NORMAL) WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND...WED
NIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT. FAVORED MIN TEMPS AT OR BLO THE LOWEST
AVBL GUIDANCE. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY SLIP JUST BLO 40F.

SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET ONE MORE DRY DAY IN ON FRI THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE.
GIVEN RATHER WEAK 850MB FLOW/WAA INTO UPPER MI...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST FRI.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO MON...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK ESE
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY REAMPLIFICATION OF THE ERN
TROF. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCT SHRA...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER AT TIMES SAT/SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHRA/TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE...LIKELY REACHING WRN UPPER INCLUDING KIWD/KCMX TOWARD
DAYBREAK...AROUND 08Z OR LATER. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
PCPN WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR. CONFIDENCE WITH STORMS AND WIND
DIRECTIONS IS LOW AFTER 09Z AT ALL SITES AS THE STORMS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAIN INFLUENCE OF A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
HOWEVER SHOULD VEER TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. MVFR
ARE MOST LIKELY AT CMX INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO EAST OF THE
LAKE BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE...WEST WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE LINE.
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED THRU
SAT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS.

ON A FINAL NOTE...FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ON LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS SE...CLEARING THE FOG FROM NW TO SE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS








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