Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMQT 291146
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTROLLING FACTOR TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION BUT A BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
STILL HANGING BACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING
NORTH/SOUTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE A DENT IN THE EXISTING DRY AIR SEEN
BETWEEN 800-550MB ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING BUT IT IS GETTING INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300-320K
SURFACES AND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WITH THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRETCHING TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...COULD SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WILL BE TIED TO THE AREA
OF CONVECTION/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAKING A SLOW PUSH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...THINK
THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
OFF TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WONDERING IF
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY.

FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...A THE SURFACE-925MB TROUGH OR
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
(CURRENTLY WEST OF SIOUX FALLS) MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BETTER DEEP FORCING AND MID LEVEL FGEN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WILL RAMP POPS UP TO DEFINITE VALUES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SHIFT
THEM EAST WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.

AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...HAVE TRENDED THEM BACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY (ESPECIALLY WEST) BASED OFF THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
EXTRA CONVERGENCE FROM THE SECONDARY TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA) THAT MERGES WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH.
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS ALSO AIDED BY PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER THE WEST (175 PERCENT OF NORMAL)...WARM CLOUD
LAYER OVER 11KFT...AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION VALUES. GOING
FORECAST HAS AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN (MATCHING 03Z SREF 30 PERCENT PROBS OF 1IN/12HRS) AND THAT
COULD BE HIGHER WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OF THUNDER STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING...THEN STARTED TO NOSE SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT.
TONIGHT...WILL TRANSITION TO CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
THE BETTER FORCING AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 300-800 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RATHER UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTH STILL AROUND 11 KFT. ONLY NEGATIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM BEING A CONCERN. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. MAIN
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AS
MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE
MORNING TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND 50 KT LLJ. AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW...IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...IT WOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.P. RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS OVERHEAD. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST SUN NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AS A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN W-NW FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THU COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY WARM
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THURSDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE THE
LOWEST CEILINGS (TO IFR) AT KCMX/KSAW WHERE THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE LIFT. AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY VFR AT KIWD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AT KIWD/KCMX AND WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP TOO.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF DIMINISHES BELOW 10KTS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KTS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
WINDS UP TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 291146
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTROLLING FACTOR TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION BUT A BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
STILL HANGING BACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING
NORTH/SOUTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE A DENT IN THE EXISTING DRY AIR SEEN
BETWEEN 800-550MB ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING BUT IT IS GETTING INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300-320K
SURFACES AND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WITH THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRETCHING TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...COULD SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WILL BE TIED TO THE AREA
OF CONVECTION/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAKING A SLOW PUSH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...THINK
THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
OFF TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WONDERING IF
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY.

FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...A THE SURFACE-925MB TROUGH OR
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
(CURRENTLY WEST OF SIOUX FALLS) MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BETTER DEEP FORCING AND MID LEVEL FGEN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WILL RAMP POPS UP TO DEFINITE VALUES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SHIFT
THEM EAST WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.

AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...HAVE TRENDED THEM BACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY (ESPECIALLY WEST) BASED OFF THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
EXTRA CONVERGENCE FROM THE SECONDARY TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA) THAT MERGES WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH.
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS ALSO AIDED BY PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER THE WEST (175 PERCENT OF NORMAL)...WARM CLOUD
LAYER OVER 11KFT...AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION VALUES. GOING
FORECAST HAS AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN (MATCHING 03Z SREF 30 PERCENT PROBS OF 1IN/12HRS) AND THAT
COULD BE HIGHER WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OF THUNDER STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING...THEN STARTED TO NOSE SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT.
TONIGHT...WILL TRANSITION TO CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
THE BETTER FORCING AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 300-800 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RATHER UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTH STILL AROUND 11 KFT. ONLY NEGATIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM BEING A CONCERN. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. MAIN
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AS
MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE
MORNING TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND 50 KT LLJ. AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW...IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...IT WOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.P. RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS OVERHEAD. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST SUN NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AS A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN W-NW FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THU COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY WARM
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THURSDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS
THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE THE
LOWEST CEILINGS (TO IFR) AT KCMX/KSAW WHERE THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE LIFT. AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY VFR AT KIWD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AT KIWD/KCMX AND WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP TOO.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF DIMINISHES BELOW 10KTS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KTS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
WINDS UP TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 290901
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTROLLING FACTOR TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION BUT A BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
STILL HANGING BACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING
NORTH/SOUTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE A DENT IN THE EXISTING DRY AIR SEEN
BETWEEN 800-550MB ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING BUT IT IS GETTING INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300-320K
SURFACES AND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WITH THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRETCHING TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...COULD SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WILL BE TIED TO THE AREA
OF CONVECTION/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAKING A SLOW PUSH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...THINK
THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
OFF TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WONDERING IF
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY.

FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...A THE SURFACE-925MB TROUGH OR
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
(CURRENTLY WEST OF SIOUX FALLS) MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BETTER DEEP FORCING AND MID LEVEL FGEN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WILL RAMP POPS UP TO DEFINITE VALUES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SHIFT
THEM EAST WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.

AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...HAVE TRENDED THEM BACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY (ESPECIALLY WEST) BASED OFF THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
EXTRA CONVERGENCE FROM THE SECONDARY TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA) THAT MERGES WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH.
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS ALSO AIDED BY PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER THE WEST (175 PERCENT OF NORMAL)...WARM CLOUD
LAYER OVER 11KFT...AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION VALUES. GOING
FORECAST HAS AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN (MATCHING 03Z SREF 30 PERCENT PROBS OF 1IN/12HRS) AND THAT
COULD BE HIGHER WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OF THUNDER STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING...THEN STARTED TO NOSE SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT.
TONIGHT...WILL TRANSITION TO CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
THE BETTER FORCING AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 300-800 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RATHER UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTH STILL AROUND 11 KFT. ONLY NEGATIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM BEING A CONCERN. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. MAIN
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AS
MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE
MORNING TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND 50 KT LLJ. AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW...IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...IT WOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.P. RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS OVERHEAD. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST SUN NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AS A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN W-NW FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THU COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY WARM
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THURSDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE
WITH SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON AT SAW IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-
IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF DIMINISHES BELOW 10KTS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KTS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
WINDS UP TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 290901
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONTROLLING FACTOR TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION BUT A BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
STILL HANGING BACK CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING
NORTH/SOUTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SLIDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAKE A DENT IN THE EXISTING DRY AIR SEEN
BETWEEN 800-550MB ON THE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING BUT IT IS GETTING INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS FORCED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 300-320K
SURFACES AND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WITH THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STRETCHING TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...COULD SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN U.P. WILL BE TIED TO THE AREA
OF CONVECTION/SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MAKING A SLOW PUSH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD LIKELY PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THESE TWO WAVES...THINK
THERE WILL A LULL IN THE PRECIP AS THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
OFF TO THE WEST AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WONDERING IF
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL STAY DRY.

FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...A THE SURFACE-925MB TROUGH OR
WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
(CURRENTLY WEST OF SIOUX FALLS) MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING BETTER DEEP FORCING AND MID LEVEL FGEN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...WILL RAMP POPS UP TO DEFINITE VALUES OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SHIFT
THEM EAST WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.

AS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS...HAVE TRENDED THEM BACK FOR THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY (ESPECIALLY WEST) BASED OFF THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL COME TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
EXTRA CONVERGENCE FROM THE SECONDARY TROUGH (CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND NORTH DAKOTA) THAT MERGES WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH.
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS ALSO AIDED BY PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES OVER THE WEST (175 PERCENT OF NORMAL)...WARM CLOUD
LAYER OVER 11KFT...AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTION VALUES. GOING
FORECAST HAS AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN (MATCHING 03Z SREF 30 PERCENT PROBS OF 1IN/12HRS) AND THAT
COULD BE HIGHER WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE THE
IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OF THUNDER STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING...THEN STARTED TO NOSE SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT.
TONIGHT...WILL TRANSITION TO CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO
THE BETTER FORCING AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 300-800 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RATHER UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTH STILL AROUND 11 KFT. ONLY NEGATIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM BEING A CONCERN. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. MAIN
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AS
MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE
MORNING TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND 50 KT LLJ. AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW...IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...IT WOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.P. RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS OVERHEAD. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST SUN NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AS A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN W-NW FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THU COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY WARM
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THURSDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE
WITH SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON AT SAW IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-
IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE. THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF DIMINISHES BELOW 10KTS AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST 10-20KTS. AFTER LIGHT WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY.
WINDS UP TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 290842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW OVER SE SD AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL IL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY ASCENT ON THE 300 TO
310K THETA SFCS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT OF TIMING. A FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 850 HPA AS NOTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
SUPPORTS SOME INITIAL SUPPRESSION OF PRECIP. THIS BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN
APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN REACHING THE WI BORDER AFTER 04Z. WHILE THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE DRY LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN WILL OCCUR IN ABOVE-FREEZING AIR. THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN THIS LAYER WOULD BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO
SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND LOCATION. FORCING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. HAVE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW AS THE THOSE MODEL RUNS WERE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP. OVERALL...THE CENTRAL CWA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT JET
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RATHER UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTH STILL AROUND 11 KFT. ONLY NEGATIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM BEING A CONCERN. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. MAIN
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AS
MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE
MORNING TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND 50 KT LLJ. AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW...IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...IT WOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.P. RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS OVERHEAD. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST SUN NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AS A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN W-NW FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THU COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY WARM
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THURSDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE
WITH SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON AT SAW IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-
IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER EASTERN SD MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WI. INCLUDING THIS WARM FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 290842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
442 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW OVER SE SD AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL IL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY ASCENT ON THE 300 TO
310K THETA SFCS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT OF TIMING. A FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 850 HPA AS NOTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
SUPPORTS SOME INITIAL SUPPRESSION OF PRECIP. THIS BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN
APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN REACHING THE WI BORDER AFTER 04Z. WHILE THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE DRY LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN WILL OCCUR IN ABOVE-FREEZING AIR. THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN THIS LAYER WOULD BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO
SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND LOCATION. FORCING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. HAVE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW AS THE THOSE MODEL RUNS WERE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP. OVERALL...THE CENTRAL CWA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT JET
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RATHER UNSETTLED LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION AND MODERATE MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. BEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTH STILL AROUND 11 KFT. ONLY NEGATIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WHICH WOULD KEEP DEEPER
CONVECTION FROM BEING A CONCERN. AS SUCH...WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
DIMINISHING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE EVENING...WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST. MAIN
CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY WITH
WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO CLOSE TO NORMAL AS
MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE
MORNING TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND 50 KT LLJ. AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW...IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN...IT WOULD OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN U.P. RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS OVERHEAD. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST SUN NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AS A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TUE AND WED WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN W-NW FLOW.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THU COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY WARM
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. BEYOND THURSDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE
WITH SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON AT SAW IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-
IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER EASTERN SD MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WI. INCLUDING THIS WARM FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER









000
FXUS63 KMQT 290531
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW OVER SE SD AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL IL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY ASCENT ON THE 300 TO
310K THETA SFCS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT OF TIMING. A FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 850 HPA AS NOTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
SUPPORTS SOME INITIAL SUPPRESSION OF PRECIP. THIS BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN
APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN REACHING THE WI BORDER AFTER 04Z. WHILE THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE DRY LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN WILL OCCUR IN ABOVE-FREEZING AIR. THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN THIS LAYER WOULD BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO
SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND LOCATION. FORCING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. HAVE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW AS THE THOSE MODEL RUNS WERE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP. OVERALL...THE CENTRAL CWA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT JET
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT
AND AFFECTS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT
WHICH MOVE OUT ON SAT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH LESSER POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LIKELY POPS PULL OUT ON SAT WITH DIMINISHING POPS SAT NIGHT
AND DRY FOR SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DOES LOOK HUMID FOR SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AT
12Z MON. THERE IS A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA 12Z WED INTO THU WITH A HINT OF THE 500
MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TRYING TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THEN TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP AGAIN AND WILL GET
TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MON NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON TUE AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THU...SO POPS START TO RETURN THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE
TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE
WITH SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON AT SAW IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-
IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER EASTERN SD MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WI. INCLUDING THIS WARM FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KMQT 282348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW OVER SE SD AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL IL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY ASCENT ON THE 300 TO
310K THETA SFCS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT OF TIMING. A FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 850 HPA AS NOTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
SUPPORTS SOME INITIAL SUPPRESSION OF PRECIP. THIS BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN
APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN REACHING THE WI BORDER AFTER 04Z. WHILE THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE DRY LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN WILL OCCUR IN ABOVE-FREEZING AIR. THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN THIS LAYER WOULD BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO
SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND LOCATION. FORCING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. HAVE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW AS THE THOSE MODEL RUNS WERE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP. OVERALL...THE CENTRAL CWA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT JET
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT
AND AFFECTS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT
WHICH MOVE OUT ON SAT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH LESSER POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LIKELY POPS PULL OUT ON SAT WITH DIMINISHING POPS SAT NIGHT
AND DRY FOR SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DOES LOOK HUMID FOR SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AT
12Z MON. THERE IS A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA 12Z WED INTO THU WITH A HINT OF THE 500
MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TRYING TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THEN TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP AGAIN AND WILL GET
TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MON NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON TUE AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THU...SO POPS START TO RETURN THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW-END VFR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL
SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE WITH
SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT
SAW/CMX. OTHERWISE... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB- IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER EASTERN SD MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WI. INCLUDING THIS WARM FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER









000
FXUS63 KMQT 282348
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
748 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW OVER SE SD AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL IL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY ASCENT ON THE 300 TO
310K THETA SFCS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT OF TIMING. A FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 850 HPA AS NOTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
SUPPORTS SOME INITIAL SUPPRESSION OF PRECIP. THIS BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN
APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN REACHING THE WI BORDER AFTER 04Z. WHILE THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE DRY LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN WILL OCCUR IN ABOVE-FREEZING AIR. THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN THIS LAYER WOULD BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO
SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND LOCATION. FORCING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. HAVE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW AS THE THOSE MODEL RUNS WERE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP. OVERALL...THE CENTRAL CWA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT JET
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT
AND AFFECTS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT
WHICH MOVE OUT ON SAT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH LESSER POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LIKELY POPS PULL OUT ON SAT WITH DIMINISHING POPS SAT NIGHT
AND DRY FOR SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DOES LOOK HUMID FOR SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AT
12Z MON. THERE IS A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA 12Z WED INTO THU WITH A HINT OF THE 500
MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TRYING TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THEN TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP AGAIN AND WILL GET
TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MON NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON TUE AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THU...SO POPS START TO RETURN THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW-END VFR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL
SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE WITH
SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT
SAW/CMX. OTHERWISE... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB- IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER EASTERN SD MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WI. INCLUDING THIS WARM FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 282000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW OVER SE SD AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL IL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY ASCENT ON THE 300 TO
310K THETA SFCS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT OF TIMING. A FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 850 HPA AS NOTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
SUPPORTS SOME INITIAL SUPPRESSION OF PRECIP. THIS BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN
APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN REACHING THE WI BORDER AFTER 04Z. WHILE THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE DRY LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN WILL OCCUR IN ABOVE-FREEZING AIR. THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN THIS LAYER WOULD BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO
SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND LOCATION. FORCING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. HAVE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW AS THE THOSE MODEL RUNS WERE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP. OVERALL...THE CENTRAL CWA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT JET
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT
AND AFFECTS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT
WHICH MOVE OUT ON SAT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH LESSER POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LIKELY POPS PULL OUT ON SAT WITH DIMINISHING POPS SAT NIGHT
AND DRY FOR SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DOES LOOK HUMID FOR SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AT
12Z MON. THERE IS A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA 12Z WED INTO THU WITH A HINT OF THE 500
MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TRYING TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THEN TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP AGAIN AND WILL GET
TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MON NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON TUE AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THU...SO POPS START TO RETURN THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW-END VFR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL
SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE WITH
SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER EASTERN SD MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WI. INCLUDING THIS WARM FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KMQT 282000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE RAINFALL TO UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ALIGNED SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
UPPER MI WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SFC LOW OVER SE SD AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN IA TO CENTRAL IL
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN
TODAY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN IS BEING FORCED BY ASCENT ON THE 300 TO
310K THETA SFCS. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING 1.5
INCHES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.

THE FIRST QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT OF TIMING. A FAIRLY DRY
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ABOVE 850 HPA AS NOTED BY THE 12Z GRB RAOB
SUPPORTS SOME INITIAL SUPPRESSION OF PRECIP. THIS BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN
APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN REACHING THE WI BORDER AFTER 04Z. WHILE THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR...THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED
SUPPORT UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A WEAK UPPER JET SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHER-INTENSITY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE DRY LAYER.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE INITIAL FORCING FROM ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/FGEN WILL OCCUR IN ABOVE-FREEZING AIR. THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN THIS LAYER WOULD BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MODERATE TO
SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND LOCATION. FORCING ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOVED THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER WEST. HAVE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SW AS THE THOSE MODEL RUNS WERE
HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING ONGOING PRECIP. OVERALL...THE CENTRAL CWA
IS EXPECTED TO SEE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED GREATER THAN 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPECT A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A PERSISTENT JET
INFLUENCE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST NEARS THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ALL THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...POST-FRONTAL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT
AND AFFECTS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT
WHICH MOVE OUT ON SAT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH LESSER POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LIKELY POPS PULL OUT ON SAT WITH DIMINISHING POPS SAT NIGHT
AND DRY FOR SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DOES LOOK HUMID FOR SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AT
12Z MON. THERE IS A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA 12Z WED INTO THU WITH A HINT OF THE 500
MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TRYING TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THEN TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP AGAIN AND WILL GET
TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MON NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON TUE AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THU...SO POPS START TO RETURN THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW-END VFR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL
SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE WITH
SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER EASTERN SD MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
WI. INCLUDING THIS WARM FRONT...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT
AND AFFECTS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT
WHICH MOVE OUT ON SAT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH LESSER POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LIKELY POPS PULL OUT ON SAT WITH DIMINISHING POPS SAT NIGHT
AND DRY FOR SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DOES LOOK HUMID FOR SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AT
12Z MON. THERE IS A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA 12Z WED INTO THU WITH A HINT OF THE 500
MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TRYING TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THEN TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP AGAIN AND WILL GET
TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MON NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON TUE AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THU...SO POPS START TO RETURN THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW-END VFR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL
SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE WITH
SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281929
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT
AND AFFECTS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SAT AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM BRINGS IN
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT
WHICH MOVE OUT ON SAT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WITH LESSER POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND
WEST. LIKELY POPS PULL OUT ON SAT WITH DIMINISHING POPS SAT NIGHT
AND DRY FOR SUN. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST. DOES LOOK HUMID FOR SAT.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AT
12Z MON. THERE IS A NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AT THAT TIME. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA 12Z WED INTO THU WITH A HINT OF THE 500
MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TRYING TO BUILD BACK TOWARDS THE
AREA. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD...THEN TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP AGAIN AND WILL GET
TO NEAR NORMAL. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MON NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS ON TUE AND HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT. WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THU...SO POPS START TO RETURN THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW-END VFR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL
SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE WITH
SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281746
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
146 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS SRN CANADA THRU THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. INITIALLY...THE FLOW WILL BE LOW
AMPLITUDE...BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF DROPS INTO THE NW CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
SHIFTS E ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. DESPITE SOME AMPLIFICATION...THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE. A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW
CURRENTLY FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER WY/CO.
THIS SRN STREAM WILL FADE AWAY AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT NRN
STREAM TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATION...TEMPS OVERALL SHOULDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM
LATE AUG/EARLY SEPT NORMALS SINCE FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED. AS FOR PCPN...SRN STREAM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF WET WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HEAVY 2-DAY RAIN TOTALS
FRI/SAT OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE SUNDAY PROVIDES
A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A DRY DAY...THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
END ON A WET NOTE ON LABOR DAY AS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/WED.

BEGINNING FRI...SRN BRANCH TROF WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS...AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROF WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE TROF WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES SAT WITH SRN BRANCH FLOW FADING AWAY THEREAFTER. STRONGEST
SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE FCST AREA OCCURS FRI WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SE HALF
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL ASSIST PCPN FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
150-200PCT OF NORMAL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HVY RAINFALL
TOTALS FRI/SAT (1-3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION) WHERE SHRA ARE
MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.
OVERALL...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE UTILIZED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR W FRI THRU SAT MORNING.

DRYING OCCURS LATER SAT INTO SUN IN THE WAKE OF SRN STREAM WAVE.
PASSAGE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS NRN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT
WILL ALSO AID DRYING AS THE FOLLOWING RIDGE HELPS TO PUSH DRIER AIR
INTO UPPER MI. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE SAT
AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY WX ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
RAINFALL FRI/SAT AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLING OVER
W/CNTRL UPPER MI SAT NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT...
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET...LINGERING
INTO MID OR EVEN LATE MORNING SUN. SUN WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY DAY
UNDER GENERALLY A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE TYPICALLY FAST
BIASED GFS HAS NOT SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT TREND...BUT THE GEM/ECMWF
HAVE SHOWN SOLID FASTER TRENDS WHICH BRING THEM UP TO THE GFS
TIMING. FOR INSTANCE...TODAYS 00Z ECMWF IS 24HRS FASTER WITH FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/26AUG RUN. FASTER TRENDS AND
CURRENT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF/GEM POINT TOWARD A WET LABOR
DAY AS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...
LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS APPEAR REASONABLE.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR TUE/WED...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVING TUE...WHICH MAY SPARK
SOME ISOLD -SHRA. GIVEN THE QUICK ARRIVAL AND LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN BEHIND MON FROPA...A MENTION OF PCPN DOESN`T APPEAR WARRANTED
ATTM FOR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW-END VFR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATING BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE SW WILL BRING RAIN AND QUICKLY LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL
SITES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAW AND CMX...WITH NEAR IFR
CONDITIONS FOR IWD...BY 15Z FRIDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE WITH
SSE FLOW...CIGS AT SAW AND CMX MAY FALL BELOW ALTERNATE LANDING
MINS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-IFR CIGS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 281141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS SRN CANADA THRU THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. INITIALLY...THE FLOW WILL BE LOW
AMPLITUDE...BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF DROPS INTO THE NW CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
SHIFTS E ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. DESPITE SOME AMPLIFICATION...THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE. A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW
CURRENTLY FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER WY/CO.
THIS SRN STREAM WILL FADE AWAY AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT NRN
STREAM TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATION...TEMPS OVERALL SHOULDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM
LATE AUG/EARLY SEPT NORMALS SINCE FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED. AS FOR PCPN...SRN STREAM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF WET WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HEAVY 2-DAY RAIN TOTALS
FRI/SAT OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE SUNDAY PROVIDES
A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A DRY DAY...THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
END ON A WET NOTE ON LABOR DAY AS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/WED.

BEGINNING FRI...SRN BRANCH TROF WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS...AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROF WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE TROF WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES SAT WITH SRN BRANCH FLOW FADING AWAY THEREAFTER. STRONGEST
SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE FCST AREA OCCURS FRI WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SE HALF
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL ASSIST PCPN FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
150-200PCT OF NORMAL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HVY RAINFALL
TOTALS FRI/SAT (1-3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION) WHERE SHRA ARE
MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.
OVERALL...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE UTILIZED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR W FRI THRU SAT MORNING.

DRYING OCCURS LATER SAT INTO SUN IN THE WAKE OF SRN STREAM WAVE.
PASSAGE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS NRN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT
WILL ALSO AID DRYING AS THE FOLLOWING RIDGE HELPS TO PUSH DRIER AIR
INTO UPPER MI. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE SAT
AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY WX ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
RAINFALL FRI/SAT AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLING OVER
W/CNTRL UPPER MI SAT NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT...
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET...LINGERING
INTO MID OR EVEN LATE MORNING SUN. SUN WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY DAY
UNDER GENERALLY A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE TYPICALLY FAST
BIASED GFS HAS NOT SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT TREND...BUT THE GEM/ECMWF
HAVE SHOWN SOLID FASTER TRENDS WHICH BRING THEM UP TO THE GFS
TIMING. FOR INSTANCE...TODAYS 00Z ECMWF IS 24HRS FASTER WITH FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/26AUG RUN. FASTER TRENDS AND
CURRENT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF/GEM POINT TOWARD A WET LABOR
DAY AS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...
LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS APPEAR REASONABLE.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR TUE/WED...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVING TUE...WHICH MAY SPARK
SOME ISOLD -SHRA. GIVEN THE QUICK ARRIVAL AND LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN BEHIND MON FROPA...A MENTION OF PCPN DOESN`T APPEAR WARRANTED
ATTM FOR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAIN
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BEFORE
THAT OCCURS...EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY AT THE THREE
TAF SITES BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 281141
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS SRN CANADA THRU THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. INITIALLY...THE FLOW WILL BE LOW
AMPLITUDE...BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF DROPS INTO THE NW CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
SHIFTS E ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. DESPITE SOME AMPLIFICATION...THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE. A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW
CURRENTLY FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER WY/CO.
THIS SRN STREAM WILL FADE AWAY AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT NRN
STREAM TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATION...TEMPS OVERALL SHOULDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM
LATE AUG/EARLY SEPT NORMALS SINCE FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED. AS FOR PCPN...SRN STREAM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF WET WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HEAVY 2-DAY RAIN TOTALS
FRI/SAT OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE SUNDAY PROVIDES
A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A DRY DAY...THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
END ON A WET NOTE ON LABOR DAY AS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/WED.

BEGINNING FRI...SRN BRANCH TROF WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS...AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROF WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE TROF WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES SAT WITH SRN BRANCH FLOW FADING AWAY THEREAFTER. STRONGEST
SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE FCST AREA OCCURS FRI WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SE HALF
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL ASSIST PCPN FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
150-200PCT OF NORMAL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HVY RAINFALL
TOTALS FRI/SAT (1-3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION) WHERE SHRA ARE
MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.
OVERALL...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE UTILIZED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR W FRI THRU SAT MORNING.

DRYING OCCURS LATER SAT INTO SUN IN THE WAKE OF SRN STREAM WAVE.
PASSAGE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS NRN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT
WILL ALSO AID DRYING AS THE FOLLOWING RIDGE HELPS TO PUSH DRIER AIR
INTO UPPER MI. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE SAT
AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY WX ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
RAINFALL FRI/SAT AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLING OVER
W/CNTRL UPPER MI SAT NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT...
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET...LINGERING
INTO MID OR EVEN LATE MORNING SUN. SUN WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY DAY
UNDER GENERALLY A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE TYPICALLY FAST
BIASED GFS HAS NOT SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT TREND...BUT THE GEM/ECMWF
HAVE SHOWN SOLID FASTER TRENDS WHICH BRING THEM UP TO THE GFS
TIMING. FOR INSTANCE...TODAYS 00Z ECMWF IS 24HRS FASTER WITH FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/26AUG RUN. FASTER TRENDS AND
CURRENT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF/GEM POINT TOWARD A WET LABOR
DAY AS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...
LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS APPEAR REASONABLE.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR TUE/WED...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVING TUE...WHICH MAY SPARK
SOME ISOLD -SHRA. GIVEN THE QUICK ARRIVAL AND LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN BEHIND MON FROPA...A MENTION OF PCPN DOESN`T APPEAR WARRANTED
ATTM FOR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAIN
MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BEFORE
THAT OCCURS...EXPECT DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY AT THE THREE
TAF SITES BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 280910
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS SRN CANADA THRU THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. INITIALLY...THE FLOW WILL BE LOW
AMPLITUDE...BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF DROPS INTO THE NW CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
SHIFTS E ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. DESPITE SOME AMPLIFICATION...THE
FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE PROGRESSIVE. A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW
CURRENTLY FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER WY/CO.
THIS SRN STREAM WILL FADE AWAY AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT NRN
STREAM TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATION...TEMPS OVERALL SHOULDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM
LATE AUG/EARLY SEPT NORMALS SINCE FLOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIED. AS FOR PCPN...SRN STREAM WILL BRING PERIODS
OF WET WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HEAVY 2-DAY RAIN TOTALS
FRI/SAT OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. WHILE SUNDAY PROVIDES
A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A DRY DAY...THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL
END ON A WET NOTE ON LABOR DAY AS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUE/WED.

BEGINNING FRI...SRN BRANCH TROF WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE PLAINS...AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING OUT OF THE TROF WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE TROF WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES SAT WITH SRN BRANCH FLOW FADING AWAY THEREAFTER. STRONGEST
SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE FCST AREA OCCURS FRI WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SE HALF
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE UPPER LAKES.
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET WILL ASSIST PCPN FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
150-200PCT OF NORMAL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT/HVY RAINFALL
TOTALS FRI/SAT (1-3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION) WHERE SHRA ARE
MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. SO...NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.
OVERALL...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE UTILIZED OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR W FRI THRU SAT MORNING.

DRYING OCCURS LATER SAT INTO SUN IN THE WAKE OF SRN STREAM WAVE.
PASSAGE OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS NRN ONTARIO FRI NIGHT
WILL ALSO AID DRYING AS THE FOLLOWING RIDGE HELPS TO PUSH DRIER AIR
INTO UPPER MI. WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE SAT
AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY WX ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH THE
RAINFALL FRI/SAT AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLING OVER
W/CNTRL UPPER MI SAT NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT...
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET...LINGERING
INTO MID OR EVEN LATE MORNING SUN. SUN WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY DAY
UNDER GENERALLY A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...BRINGING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE TYPICALLY FAST
BIASED GFS HAS NOT SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT TREND...BUT THE GEM/ECMWF
HAVE SHOWN SOLID FASTER TRENDS WHICH BRING THEM UP TO THE GFS
TIMING. FOR INSTANCE...TODAYS 00Z ECMWF IS 24HRS FASTER WITH FROPA
ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/26AUG RUN. FASTER TRENDS AND
CURRENT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF/GEM POINT TOWARD A WET LABOR
DAY AS VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THIS POINT...
LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA/TSTMS APPEAR REASONABLE.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW FOR TUE/WED...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVING TUE...WHICH MAY SPARK
SOME ISOLD -SHRA. GIVEN THE QUICK ARRIVAL AND LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN BEHIND MON FROPA...A MENTION OF PCPN DOESN`T APPEAR WARRANTED
ATTM FOR TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY
FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 280826
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY
FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 280826
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
426 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY COOL LATE AUGUST MORNING FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 32 DEGREES AT SPINCICH LAKE TO 63 DEGREES IN
MENOMINEE. THIS DISPARITY OF TEMPERATURES IS DUE TO A COUPLE POCKETS
OF CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE U.P. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
SLOWLY EXPANDING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SECOND AREA FORMED
OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AROUND MIDNIGHT AND HAS EXPANDED AS IT
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS NOW SPREADING
INTO THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN UPPER MICHIGAN. WILL FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE TREND OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS FOR THESE FEATURES...WHICH
MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL DURING
THAT PERIOD. DID TRIM THE PATCHY FOG BACK THIS MORNING FROM AREAS
WHERE THE FORECAST HAD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER WAVE SEEN SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR FOR WEATHER IN THE
U.P. FOR THE START OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.P. WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE EXISTING CLOUDS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED CLOUD COVER
FORECAST THIS MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF THE
850-800MB MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/THICKENING
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
BE INCREASING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WHILE LOWERING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WAVE COMES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SKIES CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS
MAY TRY TO LIMIT SOME OF THE HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

AS FOR THAT WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK) EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE INITIAL WAVES START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING. THIS DELAY IS DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THUS...WILL
KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LATE
EVENING AND THEN INCREASE THEM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. MODELS VARYING
SOMEWHAT ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST PRECIP...BUT THINK THE BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO RAIN OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. DID SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS 12Z (LOW END DEFINITE)
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE BEST DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT THINK THE PERSISTENT PUSH OF
THE FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST (AROUND 20KTS) SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
12Z AROUND 0.33-0.50IN ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND THEN TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR THUNDER...THERE IS A POCKET OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES FROM AROUND 750-600MB THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT DON/T
EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...HAVE JUST SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER WHERE POPS ARE ABOVE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY
FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY
WHILE A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25KTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY
FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 280523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY
FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
820 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO
DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KMQT 280020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
820 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY BR TO
DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 272028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-END VFR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER







000
FXUS63 KMQT 272028
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE CURRENT TROUGH SET UP ACROSS WY/UT/CO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ACROSS MN AND N
WI. LOOK FOR THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO BE ON THE WAY OUT. WE WILL BE FACING THE LARGE SFC LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...AND THEN
NEARING S STREAM LOW SET UP FROM OK TO FAR SW MN AT 00Z FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL START THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PUMP
UP ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE S LOW
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA /LIKELY LOCATED BETWEEN W UPPER MI AND SE MN
BY 18Z FRIDAY/. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE START OF
THIS FCST TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VARYING FROM ONLY
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AROUND IRON CO FOR EXAMPLE...TO WELL OVER
AN INCH. EITHER WAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TS WERE NEEDED. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE MAIN LOW MOVING TO CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI AT 00Z
SATURDAY...AND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA WILL BE
INTERESTING. CURRENTLY HAVE MINIMUM POPS FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN...WITH PW VALUES LINGERING AT OR
ABOVE 1IN. THE N STREAM COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE
FOR SATURDAY.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TAILORED AS THE TIME NEARS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL NEAR FOR LABOR DAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR LOOKS TO WORK IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWERED DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY FROM A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-END VFR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271943
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
343 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST WI
TO NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING...SETTLING OVER
EASTERN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRACK
EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS AS LOW AS 0.4 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MOST ABUNDANT COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PATCHES
OF FROST FOR ANY TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR EAST
HALF. ADDITIONALLY...WITH QUICK COOLING AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SFC
MOISTURE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OF MUCH CONCERN...BUT QUICK SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AROUND
70...FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE INLAND...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS
TODAY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM THE SW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEL
TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NAM...HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN. HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON CLOUDS A SMALL AMOUNTS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL 00Z. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO PCPN OVER THE UPPER LAKES...DEPENDING ON INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE N. RIGHT NOW...THE
SRN BRANCH FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TO
A BIT BLO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRIEF WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE NW AND NCNTRL CONUS. PCPN FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVES. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.

BEGINNING THU/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH NRN STREAM
TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TO MAKE
SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MODELS HAVE OVERALL MOVED INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING N AND SPREADING PCPN
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AS THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING MAIN
AREA OF PCPN MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS IS FOCUSED
MORE TO THE S AND E. GIVEN TRENDS AND GFS SOMEWHAT ON ITS OWN...
RAISED POPS SOME FOR LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM THE SCNTRL TO THE ERN FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE UPWARD
TREND IF NEXT ROUND OF MODELS STAYS ON TRACK. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED. ONLY INCLUDED THUNDER SCNTRL AND E. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY THU...SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIXING
TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...FCST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A
TREND FOR THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE SRN ROCKIES TROF TO LIFT
FARTHER N. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN WI
AND THRU NRN LWR MI. GIVEN TRENDS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS BACK N AND W SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUN SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVING
BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE NW CONUS.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
MODEL RUNS...AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON TIMING FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS
NOTABLY TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GEM OFFERS SIMILAR TIMING. THESE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST FRONT CROSSING UPPER MI MON AFTN/NIGHT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
LABOR DAY MIGHT TURN WET WITH SHRA AND TSTMS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-END VFR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
THEN CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271733
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
133 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO PCPN OVER THE UPPER LAKES...DEPENDING ON INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE N. RIGHT NOW...THE
SRN BRANCH FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TO
A BIT BLO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRIEF WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE NW AND NCNTRL CONUS. PCPN FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVES. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.

BEGINNING THU/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH NRN STREAM
TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TO MAKE
SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MODELS HAVE OVERALL MOVED INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING N AND SPREADING PCPN
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AS THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING MAIN
AREA OF PCPN MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS IS FOCUSED
MORE TO THE S AND E. GIVEN TRENDS AND GFS SOMEWHAT ON ITS OWN...
RAISED POPS SOME FOR LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM THE SCNTRL TO THE ERN FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE UPWARD
TREND IF NEXT ROUND OF MODELS STAYS ON TRACK. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED. ONLY INCLUDED THUNDER SCNTRL AND E. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY THU...SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIXING
TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...FCST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A
TREND FOR THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE SRN ROCKIES TROF TO LIFT
FARTHER N. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN WI
AND THRU NRN LWR MI. GIVEN TRENDS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS BACK N AND W SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUN SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVING
BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE NW CONUS.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
MODEL RUNS...AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON TIMING FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS
NOTABLY TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GEM OFFERS SIMILAR TIMING. THESE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST FRONT CROSSING UPPER MI MON AFTN/NIGHT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
LABOR DAY MIGHT TURN WET WITH SHRA AND TSTMS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR VIS AT SAW OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-END VFR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY BR TO DEVELOP AT SAW. VIS MAY FLUCTUATE CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ANY BR OR FG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 271133
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO PCPN OVER THE UPPER LAKES...DEPENDING ON INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE N. RIGHT NOW...THE
SRN BRANCH FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TO
A BIT BLO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRIEF WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE NW AND NCNTRL CONUS. PCPN FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVES. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.

BEGINNING THU/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH NRN STREAM
TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TO MAKE
SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MODELS HAVE OVERALL MOVED INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING N AND SPREADING PCPN
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AS THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING MAIN
AREA OF PCPN MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS IS FOCUSED
MORE TO THE S AND E. GIVEN TRENDS AND GFS SOMEWHAT ON ITS OWN...
RAISED POPS SOME FOR LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM THE SCNTRL TO THE ERN FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE UPWARD
TREND IF NEXT ROUND OF MODELS STAYS ON TRACK. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED. ONLY INCLUDED THUNDER SCNTRL AND E. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY THU...SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIXING
TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...FCST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A
TREND FOR THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE SRN ROCKIES TROF TO LIFT
FARTHER N. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN WI
AND THRU NRN LWR MI. GIVEN TRENDS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS BACK N AND W SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUN SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVING
BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE NW CONUS.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
MODEL RUNS...AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON TIMING FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS
NOTABLY TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GEM OFFERS SIMILAR TIMING. THESE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST FRONT CROSSING UPPER MI MON AFTN/NIGHT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
LABOR DAY MIGHT TURN WET WITH SHRA AND TSTMS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AT
THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE REGION
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF KSAW BY TAF VALID TIME. BEHIND THIS
WAVE...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW/KCMX DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE. TONIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR...WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...HAVE LEFT KSAW VISIBILITIES AT VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 271133
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO PCPN OVER THE UPPER LAKES...DEPENDING ON INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE N. RIGHT NOW...THE
SRN BRANCH FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TO
A BIT BLO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRIEF WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE NW AND NCNTRL CONUS. PCPN FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVES. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.

BEGINNING THU/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH NRN STREAM
TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TO MAKE
SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MODELS HAVE OVERALL MOVED INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING N AND SPREADING PCPN
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AS THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING MAIN
AREA OF PCPN MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS IS FOCUSED
MORE TO THE S AND E. GIVEN TRENDS AND GFS SOMEWHAT ON ITS OWN...
RAISED POPS SOME FOR LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM THE SCNTRL TO THE ERN FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE UPWARD
TREND IF NEXT ROUND OF MODELS STAYS ON TRACK. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED. ONLY INCLUDED THUNDER SCNTRL AND E. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY THU...SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIXING
TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...FCST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A
TREND FOR THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE SRN ROCKIES TROF TO LIFT
FARTHER N. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN WI
AND THRU NRN LWR MI. GIVEN TRENDS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS BACK N AND W SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUN SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVING
BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE NW CONUS.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
MODEL RUNS...AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON TIMING FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS
NOTABLY TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GEM OFFERS SIMILAR TIMING. THESE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST FRONT CROSSING UPPER MI MON AFTN/NIGHT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
LABOR DAY MIGHT TURN WET WITH SHRA AND TSTMS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AT
THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE REGION
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF KSAW BY TAF VALID TIME. BEHIND THIS
WAVE...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW/KCMX DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MOISTURE. TONIGHT
WILL BE CLEAR...WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
FOG...HAVE LEFT KSAW VISIBILITIES AT VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO PCPN OVER THE UPPER LAKES...DEPENDING ON INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE N. RIGHT NOW...THE
SRN BRANCH FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TO
A BIT BLO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRIEF WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE NW AND NCNTRL CONUS. PCPN FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVES. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.

BEGINNING THU/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH NRN STREAM
TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TO MAKE
SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MODELS HAVE OVERALL MOVED INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING N AND SPREADING PCPN
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AS THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING MAIN
AREA OF PCPN MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS IS FOCUSED
MORE TO THE S AND E. GIVEN TRENDS AND GFS SOMEWHAT ON ITS OWN...
RAISED POPS SOME FOR LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM THE SCNTRL TO THE ERN FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE UPWARD
TREND IF NEXT ROUND OF MODELS STAYS ON TRACK. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED. ONLY INCLUDED THUNDER SCNTRL AND E. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY THU...SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIXING
TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...FCST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A
TREND FOR THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE SRN ROCKIES TROF TO LIFT
FARTHER N. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN WI
AND THRU NRN LWR MI. GIVEN TRENDS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS BACK N AND W SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUN SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVING
BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE NW CONUS.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
MODEL RUNS...AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON TIMING FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS
NOTABLY TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GEM OFFERS SIMILAR TIMING. THESE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST FRONT CROSSING UPPER MI MON AFTN/NIGHT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
LABOR DAY MIGHT TURN WET WITH SHRA AND TSTMS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF









000
FXUS63 KMQT 270920
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A LOW AMPLITUDE
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SRN CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CAUSE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO PCPN OVER THE UPPER LAKES...DEPENDING ON INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVES WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO THE N. RIGHT NOW...THE
SRN BRANCH FEATURES A TROF AND WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AMPLIFY SOME AS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROF MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TO
A BIT BLO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRIEF WARMING WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF PROGRESSING E ACROSS
THE NW AND NCNTRL CONUS. PCPN FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVES. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PCPN SHOULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NW/NCNTRL CONUS.

BEGINNING THU/FRI...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. WITH NRN STREAM
TROFS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TO MAKE
SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MODELS HAVE OVERALL MOVED INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING N AND SPREADING PCPN
INTO UPPER MI THU NIGHT/FRI. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES AS THE GEM/ECMWF/NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING MAIN
AREA OF PCPN MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS IS FOCUSED
MORE TO THE S AND E. GIVEN TRENDS AND GFS SOMEWHAT ON ITS OWN...
RAISED POPS SOME FOR LATER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM THE SCNTRL TO THE ERN FCST AREA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE UPWARD
TREND IF NEXT ROUND OF MODELS STAYS ON TRACK. INSTABILITY IS RATHER
LIMITED. ONLY INCLUDED THUNDER SCNTRL AND E. AFTER SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY THU...SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIXING
TO 850-800MB ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE LOW/MID 70S AWAY FROM LAKE COOLING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...FCST HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A
TREND FOR THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE SRN ROCKIES TROF TO LIFT
FARTHER N. ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC WAVE IS FCST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN WI
AND THRU NRN LWR MI. GIVEN TRENDS ALONG WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL LINGER CHC POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT...THEN SPREAD CHC POPS BACK N AND W SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUN SHOULD DRY OUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVING
BTWN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF
DEVELOPING INTO THE NW CONUS.

AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROF OVER THE NW CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
BRINGING A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA. FOR THIS FAR OUT IN THE
MODEL RUNS...AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON TIMING FRONT. THE ECMWF HAS
NOTABLY TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS TYPICALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE GEM OFFERS SIMILAR TIMING. THESE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST FRONT CROSSING UPPER MI MON AFTN/NIGHT. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
LABOR DAY MIGHT TURN WET WITH SHRA AND TSTMS SPREADING E ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 270750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270750
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS WITH THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
07Z...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ONE
STRETCHING FROM ISLE ROYALE TO LITTLE FALLS MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER
FROM WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH
THE 00Z KMPX RAOB INDICATED DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS BASE...RAIN
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND UNDER MOST OF THE RADAR RETURNS AND
GENERALLY PRODUCING ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05IN OF RAIN AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
AREA BY 15Z. THE 04Z/05Z HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
PRECIP AND WEIGHTED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THAT FOR THE FIRST
6HRS. THEREFORE...HAVE SHOWN SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY COMING TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE U.P.

EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE MID CLOUDS
DEPART...AS A POCKET OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB OR 4KFT SEEN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS PAST EVENING AND KCMX OBS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATES. WITH THE LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BE INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE WEST THIRD (MID-UPPER 60S) AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST (65-71).

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE). THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
PWATS AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. HAVE THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE LOWER
40S TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S AND DID DROP A FEW OF THEM TO THOSE
VALUES (WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST). WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY RADIATIONAL/GROUND FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT DON/T
EXPECT IT TO BE TOO THICK DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY AIR. THE PLACES
WHERE IT SHOULD BE THE THICKEST WOULD BE IN ANY LOW SPOTS OR NEAR
LAKES (DUE TO THEIR WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW 15KTS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE TROUGHS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF








000
FXUS63 KMQT 270524
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS DOWN TO +5C ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH
READINGS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD DOWNSLOPING
NEAR LK MICHIGAN. A LOT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVE ALSO HELD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AFTN. PLAN FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

UPSTREAM...WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT DRYING IN ITS WAKE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT IT SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE LIFT FM THE
WAVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF H3 JET STREAK FM ND TO LK SUPERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SYNC UP
OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. PRIME NEGATIVE FACTOR
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL BE DRY AIR BLO H9 THANKS TO
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. NAM/GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOW
BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER WEST HALF OF CWA 06Z-12Z. GIVEN
DECENT UVM IN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...PUT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE PUTS KABOSH ON ANY
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TOWARD 12Z OVER NW CWA AND BY 15Z ACROSS REST
OF CWA SO REALLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING WITH H85 TEMPS AS
LOW AS +4C OVER LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH HALF
AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH. LOWEST TEMPS...AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK...NEAR LK SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20 KTS AS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 270524
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS DOWN TO +5C ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH
READINGS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD DOWNSLOPING
NEAR LK MICHIGAN. A LOT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVE ALSO HELD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AFTN. PLAN FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

UPSTREAM...WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT DRYING IN ITS WAKE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT IT SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE LIFT FM THE
WAVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF H3 JET STREAK FM ND TO LK SUPERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SYNC UP
OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. PRIME NEGATIVE FACTOR
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL BE DRY AIR BLO H9 THANKS TO
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. NAM/GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOW
BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER WEST HALF OF CWA 06Z-12Z. GIVEN
DECENT UVM IN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...PUT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE PUTS KABOSH ON ANY
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TOWARD 12Z OVER NW CWA AND BY 15Z ACROSS REST
OF CWA SO REALLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING WITH H85 TEMPS AS
LOW AS +4C OVER LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH HALF
AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH. LOWEST TEMPS...AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK...NEAR LK SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT IWD...LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH SO THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MID
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20 KTS AS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270009
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
809 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS DOWN TO +5C ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH
READINGS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD DOWNSLOPING
NEAR LK MICHIGAN. A LOT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVE ALSO HELD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AFTN. PLAN FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

UPSTREAM...WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT DRYING IN ITS WAKE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT IT SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE LIFT FM THE
WAVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF H3 JET STREAK FM ND TO LK SUPERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SYNC UP
OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. PRIME NEGATIVE FACTOR
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL BE DRY AIR BLO H9 THANKS TO
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. NAM/GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOW
BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER WEST HALF OF CWA 06Z-12Z. GIVEN
DECENT UVM IN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...PUT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE PUTS KABOSH ON ANY
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TOWARD 12Z OVER NW CWA AND BY 15Z ACROSS REST
OF CWA SO REALLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING WITH H85 TEMPS AS
LOW AS +4C OVER LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH HALF
AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH. LOWEST TEMPS...AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK...NEAR LK SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20 KTS AS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC







000
FXUS63 KMQT 270009
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
809 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS DOWN TO +5C ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH
READINGS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD DOWNSLOPING
NEAR LK MICHIGAN. A LOT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVE ALSO HELD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AFTN. PLAN FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

UPSTREAM...WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT DRYING IN ITS WAKE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT IT SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE LIFT FM THE
WAVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF H3 JET STREAK FM ND TO LK SUPERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SYNC UP
OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. PRIME NEGATIVE FACTOR
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL BE DRY AIR BLO H9 THANKS TO
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. NAM/GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOW
BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER WEST HALF OF CWA 06Z-12Z. GIVEN
DECENT UVM IN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...PUT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE PUTS KABOSH ON ANY
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TOWARD 12Z OVER NW CWA AND BY 15Z ACROSS REST
OF CWA SO REALLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING WITH H85 TEMPS AS
LOW AS +4C OVER LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH HALF
AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH. LOWEST TEMPS...AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK...NEAR LK SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20 KTS AS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC








000
FXUS63 KMQT 261956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS DOWN TO +5C ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH
READINGS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD DOWNSLOPING
NEAR LK MICHIGAN. A LOT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVE ALSO HELD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AFTN. PLAN FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

UPSTREAM...WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT DRYING IN ITS WAKE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT IT SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE LIFT FM THE
WAVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF H3 JET STREAK FM ND TO LK SUPERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SYNC UP
OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. PRIME NEGATIVE FACTOR
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL BE DRY AIR BLO H9 THANKS TO
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. NAM/GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOW
BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER WEST HALF OF CWA 06Z-12Z. GIVEN
DECENT UVM IN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...PUT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE PUTS KABOSH ON ANY
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TOWARD 12Z OVER NW CWA AND BY 15Z ACROSS REST
OF CWA SO REALLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING WITH H85 TEMPS AS
LOW AS +4C OVER LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH HALF
AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH. LOWEST TEMPS...AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK...NEAR LK SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT RESULTS IN BKN MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS
AFTN AT KCMX AND KSAW. PLAN ON THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY THE
EVENING AS RIDGING TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KCMX SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20 KTS AS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC





000
FXUS63 KMQT 261956
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS DOWN TO +5C ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH
READINGS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD DOWNSLOPING
NEAR LK MICHIGAN. A LOT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVE ALSO HELD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AFTN. PLAN FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

UPSTREAM...WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT DRYING IN ITS WAKE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT IT SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE LIFT FM THE
WAVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF H3 JET STREAK FM ND TO LK SUPERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SYNC UP
OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. PRIME NEGATIVE FACTOR
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL BE DRY AIR BLO H9 THANKS TO
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. NAM/GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOW
BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER WEST HALF OF CWA 06Z-12Z. GIVEN
DECENT UVM IN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...PUT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE PUTS KABOSH ON ANY
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TOWARD 12Z OVER NW CWA AND BY 15Z ACROSS REST
OF CWA SO REALLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING WITH H85 TEMPS AS
LOW AS +4C OVER LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH HALF
AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH. LOWEST TEMPS...AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK...NEAR LK SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...FCST CONCERNS IN THE
MIDDLE/LONGER TERM WL FOCUS ON THE INTERACTION BTWN A FAIRLY ZONAL
NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER SRN CANADA/A WEAKER SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE
CONUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACRS UPR MI. THE BULK OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THE SE CWA WL BE IMPACTED MOST BY WAVES
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE SRN BRANCH. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND WL GIVE WAY TO WARMER WX EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SOME SHOWERS/TS
LATER ON LABOR DAY AS A STRONG COLD FNT APRCHS THE AREA.

WED NGT...SFC HI PRES IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG WITHIN NRN BRANCH
FLOW WL BRING MOCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. SOME HI CLDS MAY BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO THE SW CWA LATE AT NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS TO THE E AND
A BIT OF A RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS TO DVLP IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN WEAKER SRN BRANCH THAT WL BE SHIFTING THRU THE NCENTRAL
PLAINS. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR E AND CENTRAL
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HI PRES/PWAT AS LO AS 0.50 INCH OR ABOUT
50 PCT OF NORMAL. PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA.

THU THRU SAT...NOT SURPRISINGLY...MODEL FCST DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
APRNT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN THE STRONGER NRN
BRANCH FLOW IN SRN CANADA/WEAKER FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND HOW QUICKLY
AND HOW FAR N PCPN WL SPREAD IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE RIPPLING
THRU THE SRN BRANCH FM THE NCENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST/
GREAT LKS AND WHEN/HOW QUICKLY ANY PCPN WOULD EXIT THE AREA. FOR
INSTANCE...THE 00Z CNDN MODEL WAS MUCH FASTER AT BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE WRN CWA ON THU...BUT THIS MODEL SHOWED MORE PHASING BTWN THE
BRANCHES/A DEEPER SFC LO LIFTING NEWD THRU MN/SSW H85 WINDS UP TO 50
KTS AGGRESSIVELY RETURNING MSTR/HIER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPR LKS.
THIS MODEL THEN SHOWED MORE RAPID DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON SAT BEHIND
THE STRONGER/MORE PHASED DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
INTERACTION APRNT ON THE SEPARATE FCST H5 FLOWS AND THE SHIFT OF THE
12Z CNDN MODEL TOWARD THE OTHER MORE SUPPRESSED GUIDANCE...WL TEND
TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT SHOW A RIBBON
OF HIER QPF OVER MAINLY THE SE CWA ON THE SE EDGE OF FCST CONFLUENCE
ZN IN THE H5 FLOW AND CLOSER TO MORE PERSISTENT SFC LO PRES TROF...
WHERE THE FCST PWAT REMAINS AS HI AS 1.50-2.00 INCHES. ON SAT...A
SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH IS FCST TO SWING THRU NW ONTARIO...WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SE CLOSER TO SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
TRACK/SFC LO PRES TROF...SUSPECT THE FROPA WL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
HIER POPS WL REMAIN OVER THE SE CWA.

EXTENDED...BEST CHC FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON SUN...WHEN SFC HI
PRES IS FCST TO PASS THRU ONTARIO UNDER A SHRTWV RDG IN THE NRN
BRANCH. BUT SOME OF THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWED A SLOWER SRN BRANCH
SHRTWV MOVING THRU LOWER MI BRINGING SOME PCPN INTO AT LEAST THE SE
CWA. SO FCST WL SHOW SOME LO CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THAT AREA. ON
LABOR DAY/TUE...STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW BTWN THE HI SHIFTING INTO
QUEBEC AND A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE/ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER...MOISTER AIR/GREATER
SHOWER AND TS CHCS. WL RELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT RESULTS IN BKN MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS
AFTN AT KCMX AND KSAW. PLAN ON THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY THE
EVENING AS RIDGING TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KCMX SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS INTO WED UNDER SHARPER PRES GRADIENT IN
ADVANCE OF SFC HI PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
20 KTS AS WEAKER PRES GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC






000
FXUS63 KMQT 261906
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WV LOOP AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO ADVECT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPS DOWN TO +5C ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS AFTN WITH
READINGS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD DOWNSLOPING
NEAR LK MICHIGAN. A LOT OF LOW-MID CLOUDS DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH
HAVE ALSO HELD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AFTN. PLAN FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING TREND FOR BOTH WINDS AND
CLOUDS.

UPSTREAM...WV LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT DRYING IN ITS WAKE
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT IT SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY. THE LIFT FM THE
WAVE ALONG WITH AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF H3 JET STREAK FM ND TO LK SUPERIOR ARE FORECAST TO SYNC UP
OVERNIGHT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. PRIME NEGATIVE FACTOR
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL BE DRY AIR BLO H9 THANKS TO
SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA. NAM/GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL SHOW
BEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER WEST HALF OF CWA 06Z-12Z. GIVEN
DECENT UVM IN THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT...PUT A MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND SHORTWAVE PUTS KABOSH ON ANY
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT TOWARD 12Z OVER NW CWA AND BY 15Z ACROSS REST
OF CWA SO REALLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGHING WITH H85 TEMPS AS
LOW AS +4C OVER LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S NORTH HALF
AND INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTH. LOWEST TEMPS...AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK...NEAR LK SUPERIOR FROM MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET CHILLY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. TRENDED LOWS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS...AND EVEN HAVE SOME
UPPER 30S FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD RAWS SITES.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SAME AREA BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
SLIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA...BUT LIKELY MORE CONFINED TO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. WHILE THAT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THUS WILL KEEP
POPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT RESULTS IN BKN MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS
AFTN AT KCMX AND KSAW. PLAN ON THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY THE
EVENING AS RIDGING TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KCMX SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...RESULTING FROM PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRES WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DROP
OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES DEPARTS THU...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT FRI/SAT EVEN WITH TROF DROPPING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON









000
FXUS63 KMQT 261726
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO IS NOW MUCH WEAKER AND
TRACKING THRU NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS UPPER
MI DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. SFC DWPTS THAT
WERE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F ARE NOW DOWN IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE
50S AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS. UPSTREAM...QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IS
NOTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MN...AND THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES IN NE MN. IN THE LAST FEW HRS...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
THINNING OUT...AND RECENTLY THE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER
MI. THESE CLOUDS ARE SITUATED IN THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WHICH HAS
850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 4-5C OVER FAR NRN MN.

TODAY...850MB TROF SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING COINCIDING WITH ARRIVAL OF THERMAL TROF...THERE
SHOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF SCT/BKN CU/STRATOCU FOR A TIME...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL BE A BIT COOLER
WHERE WINDS ARE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...
SHORTWAVE TROF NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS FCST TO SHIFT E...
REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED. SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN STREAKING E INTO WI AND EVEN INTO UPPER MI. INITIALLY...PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS APPEARS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE FAR NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH THE JET
TRANSLATING E OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...JET FORCING WILL BE S OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LITTLE/NO DEEP LAYER FORCING IS
NOTED WITH SHORTWAVE...AND LOW-LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT TODAY. SO...IF
PCPN DOES MANAGE TO STREAK INTO THE AREA...THE LIGHT PCPN WOULD
LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THUS...NO MENTION OF
PCPN WAS INCLUDED IN FCST TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. OPTED FOR THE MIDDLE
GROUND OF AVBL GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
40S/LWR 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TO
START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITHIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS A LITTLE POCKET OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE THAT WILL TRY TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DULUTH AT
12Z WEDNESDAY...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. BEHIND THIS WAVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW THE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (INLAND AND TOWARDS WISCONSIN
BORDER) AFTER THE MID CLOUDS DEPART DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY SINCE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MODELS ARE
AVERAGING AROUND 6-7C AND KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET CHILLY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. TRENDED LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...AND EVEN HAVE SOME UPPER 30S FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SAME AREA BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
SLIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA...BUT LIKELY MORE CONFINED TO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. WHILE THAT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THUS WILL KEEP
POPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT RESULTS IN BKN MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS
AFTN AT KCMX AND KSAW. PLAN ON THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY THE
EVENING AS RIDGING TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KCMX SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...RESULTING FROM PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRES WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DROP
OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES DEPARTS THU...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT FRI/SAT EVEN WITH TROF DROPPING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON







000
FXUS63 KMQT 261726
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT
WAS MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO IS NOW MUCH WEAKER AND
TRACKING THRU NRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS UPPER
MI DURING THE NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. SFC DWPTS THAT
WERE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F ARE NOW DOWN IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE
50S AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS. UPSTREAM...QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IS
NOTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MN...AND THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES IN NE MN. IN THE LAST FEW HRS...THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
THINNING OUT...AND RECENTLY THE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER
MI. THESE CLOUDS ARE SITUATED IN THE 850MB THERMAL TROF WHICH HAS
850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 4-5C OVER FAR NRN MN.

TODAY...850MB TROF SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING COINCIDING WITH ARRIVAL OF THERMAL TROF...THERE
SHOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF SCT/BKN CU/STRATOCU FOR A TIME...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL BE A BIT COOLER
WHERE WINDS ARE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...
SHORTWAVE TROF NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MT IS FCST TO SHIFT E...
REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED. SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHT
PCPN STREAKING E INTO WI AND EVEN INTO UPPER MI. INITIALLY...PCPN
DEVELOPMENT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS APPEARS TIED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF JET STREAK ACROSS THE FAR NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH THE JET
TRANSLATING E OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...JET FORCING WILL BE S OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LITTLE/NO DEEP LAYER FORCING IS
NOTED WITH SHORTWAVE...AND LOW-LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT TODAY. SO...IF
PCPN DOES MANAGE TO STREAK INTO THE AREA...THE LIGHT PCPN WOULD
LIKELY DRY UP BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THUS...NO MENTION OF
PCPN WAS INCLUDED IN FCST TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. OPTED FOR THE MIDDLE
GROUND OF AVBL GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
40S/LWR 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TO
START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITHIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS A LITTLE POCKET OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE THAT WILL TRY TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DULUTH AT
12Z WEDNESDAY...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. BEHIND THIS WAVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW THE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (INLAND AND TOWARDS WISCONSIN
BORDER) AFTER THE MID CLOUDS DEPART DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY SINCE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MODELS ARE
AVERAGING AROUND 6-7C AND KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET CHILLY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. TRENDED LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...AND EVEN HAVE SOME UPPER 30S FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SAME AREA BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
SLIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA...BUT LIKELY MORE CONFINED TO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. WHILE THAT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THUS WILL KEEP
POPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT RESULTS IN BKN MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS THIS
AFTN AT KCMX AND KSAW. PLAN ON THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY THE
EVENING AS RIDGING TRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KCMX SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...RESULTING FROM PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRES WELL OFF TO THE
NE AND HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DROP
OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRES DEPARTS THU...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT FRI/SAT EVEN WITH TROF DROPPING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SAT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities