000
FXUS63 KMQT 230001
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLUGGISH UPR LO
OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BTWN RDG OFF THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER
RDG AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. BAND OF -SHRA STRETCHING FM NE MN INTO
THE WRN CWA UNDER BAND OF H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IS
HOLDING FIRM EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRY AIR IS SURGING INTO NE MN/WRN LK
SUP IN STEADY NE FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA AND SFC LO PRES
IN THE LOWER LKS. ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE SE
HALF OF WI/S HALF OF LK MI IS EXPANDING TO THE N AS SHRTWV OVER
IL/LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX IS MOVING N OF THE
CLOSED LO. OTRW...LO CLDS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER UPR MI
WITH CHILLY NE WIND OFF LK SUP. SOME FOG HAS PERSISTED AS WELL NEAR
LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE LLVL DRY AIR HAS NOT YET
ARRIVED.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE HOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FM THE N WL IMPACT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FGEN OVER THE WRN
ZNS AND AREA OF SHRA MOVING N TOWARD THE SE COUNTIES.
TNGT...UPR LO NOW OVER SE MN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ESE...AND NAM SHOWS
BAND OF H85-7 FGEN/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE SEWD
ACRS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...H7-3 QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SUPPORTING UPR JET
LIFTING NNEWD WL IMPACT MAINLY THE SE COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE THESE
DYNAMICS MAY INTERACT FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG OVER THE
SE ZNS. SO HIER POPS IN THIS AREA AT THAT TIME SEEM APPROPRIATE. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE NW CWA UNDER STRONGER NNE
FLOW WL END ANY LINGERING PCPN AS FGEN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SE. THE
PCPN WL END EVEN OVER THE SE ZNS AFT 06Z FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND EXIT OF THE DYNAMICS WL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLRG...BUT THE UPSLOPE NNE FLOW MAY SLOW THE PROCESS OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
THU...HI PRES IS FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DRY WX.
ALTHOUGH LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS ARND 0C THRU 00Z
WOULD INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DIURNAL CU/SC AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
OVER LAND...DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS AS WELL AS LLVL ACYC/
DIFFLUENT FLOW WL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES. IF THERE IS ANY UPSLOPE SC
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP...THIS CLD WL MIX OUT EARLY. THE
FCST H85 TEMPS AND MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT STIFF NNE WIND OFF LK
SUP WL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE BIG LAKE. THESE
STRONGER NE WINDS WL DIMINISH OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH THE APRCH
OF THE HI CENTER/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
SLOW MOVING AND RATHER STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE LONG TERM. INITIALLY LATE THIS WEEK...THERE IS
A TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS...
AND TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. EVENTUALLY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN RIDGING
EXPANDS FROM PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER AN UNSETTLED AND
WET WEEK THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS DRY WEATHER STRETCH MAY EVEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALLER CHANCES OF PRECIP BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY TO WEST OF UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO AXIS OF
HIGHER H85-H7 MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
GUSTY WINDS AROUND ON THURSDAY DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD DUE TO STRONG MIXING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL SUPPORT MIN
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES INTERIOR WEST AND IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DO NOT OFFICIALLY BEGIN THE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...NEAR 1030MB...
LAKE BREEZES MAY GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A COOLER DAY
ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY...COOLING WILL BECOME MORE OF A LAKESIDE FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INLAND AREAS RISE INTO THE 60S.
SEEMS THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER FAR WEST
CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO BUILDING DOWN ENOUGH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT UVM TO RESULT IN BAND OF LGT SHRA MAKING IT INTO IWD
06Z-12Z ON SATURDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT HAVE
QPF STAYING OUT OF CWA. 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A BIT NOW THOUGH. NAM
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD PUSH OF LGT PRECIP SO WILL NOT
PUT A MENTION IN YET. INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MIN
TEMPS AND MAY RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR FROST...AT LEAST IN THE
INTERIOR WEST CWA. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OR
NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT MORE FROST...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
LAKES. IF THERE ARE BKN CLOUDS WEST...THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY EVENING RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
DUE TO COOL AND DAMP WEATHER AND MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
/HAD REPORT TODAY OF OVER 4 INCHES TO WEST OF ONTONAGON/...FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ARE TAKING A BRIEF HIATUS. EVENTUALLY DUE TO ALMOST A
WEEK OF DRYING...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY SEE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A FULL
GREEN UP AND/OR SEEN A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
AS A STEADY NNE WIND BTWN HIGH PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND LOW PRES
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER
UPPER MI. EXPECT IMRPVOING CONDITIONS TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD TOWARD
SAW BY LATE EVENING WHERE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL ALSO SLOW THE TREND TOWARD VFR. UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY NNE WINDS AT ALL 3 SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
THU.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUP THRU
TONIGHT. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR OVER THE
LAKE...SO LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CURRENT VISIBILITY REPORTS/WEBCAM IMAGERY NEAR THE LAKE...OPTED TO
CANX GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THAT WERE SET TO EXPIRE AT 21Z.
CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS W TO E ON THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC/JLA
000
FXUS63 KMQT 222002
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLUGGISH UPR LO
OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY BTWN RDG OFF THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER
RDG AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. BAND OF -SHRA STRETCHING FM NE MN INTO
THE WRN CWA UNDER BAND OF H85-7 FGEN TO THE NE OF THE CLOSED LO IS
HOLDING FIRM EVEN THOUGH LLVL DRY AIR IS SURGING INTO NE MN/WRN LK
SUP IN STEADY NE FLOW BTWN HI PRES OVER NRN MANITOBA AND SFC LO PRES
IN THE LOWER LKS. ANOTHER LARGER AREA OF SHRA/ISOLD TS OVER THE SE
HALF OF WI/S HALF OF LK MI IS EXPANDING TO THE N AS SHRTWV OVER
IL/LEFT EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX IS MOVING N OF THE
CLOSED LO. OTRW...LO CLDS HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER UPR MI
WITH CHILLY NE WIND OFF LK SUP. SOME FOG HAS PERSISTED AS WELL NEAR
LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW...WHERE THE LLVL DRY AIR HAS NOT YET
ARRIVED.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE HOW DRIER AIR ARRIVING
FM THE N WL IMPACT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF FGEN OVER THE WRN
ZNS AND AREA OF SHRA MOVING N TOWARD THE SE COUNTIES.
TNGT...UPR LO NOW OVER SE MN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ESE...AND NAM SHOWS
BAND OF H85-7 FGEN/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE SEWD
ACRS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...H7-3 QVECTOR
CNVGC/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT AHEAD OF SHRTWV/SUPPORTING UPR JET
LIFTING NNEWD WL IMPACT MAINLY THE SE COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE THESE
DYNAMICS MAY INTERACT FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG OVER THE
SE ZNS. SO HIER POPS IN THIS AREA AT THAT TIME SEEM APPROPRIATE. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE NW CWA UNDER STRONGER NNE
FLOW WL END ANY LINGERING PCPN AS FGEN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SE. THE
PCPN WL END EVEN OVER THE SE ZNS AFT 06Z FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMICS AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND EXIT OF THE DYNAMICS WL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLRG...BUT THE UPSLOPE NNE FLOW MAY SLOW THE PROCESS OVER THE
HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
THU...HI PRES IS FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR LKS...RESULTING IN DRY WX.
ALTHOUGH LINGERING H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS ARND 0C THRU 00Z
WOULD INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DIURNAL CU/SC AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
OVER LAND...DRYNESS OF INCOMING AIRMASS AS WELL AS LLVL ACYC/
DIFFLUENT FLOW WL RESULT IN MOCLR SKIES. IF THERE IS ANY UPSLOPE SC
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP...THIS CLD WL MIX OUT EARLY. THE
FCST H85 TEMPS AND MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT STIFF NNE WIND OFF LK
SUP WL CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE BIG LAKE. THESE
STRONGER NE WINDS WL DIMINISH OVER THE W IN THE AFTN WITH THE APRCH
OF THE HI CENTER/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
SLOW MOVING AND RATHER STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE LONG TERM. INITIALLY LATE THIS WEEK...THERE IS
A TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS...
AND TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ONLY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. EVENTUALLY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN RIDGING
EXPANDS FROM PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER AN UNSETTLED AND
WET WEEK THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...HUDSON BAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THIS DRY WEATHER STRETCH MAY EVEN PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALLER CHANCES OF PRECIP BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...
BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY TO WEST OF UPPER LAKES CLOSER TO AXIS OF
HIGHER H85-H7 MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
GUSTY WINDS AROUND ON THURSDAY DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. LIGHTER WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD DUE TO STRONG MIXING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL SUPPORT MIN
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES INTERIOR WEST AND IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MANY AREAS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DO NOT OFFICIALLY BEGIN THE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...NEAR 1030MB...
LAKE BREEZES MAY GET GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A COOLER DAY
ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY...COOLING WILL BECOME MORE OF A LAKESIDE FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS INLAND AREAS RISE INTO THE 60S.
SEEMS THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER FAR WEST
CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE IN MID LEVELS ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO BUILDING DOWN ENOUGH ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT UVM TO RESULT IN BAND OF LGT SHRA MAKING IT INTO IWD
06Z-12Z ON SATURDAY. ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT HAVE
QPF STAYING OUT OF CWA. 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A BIT NOW THOUGH. NAM
SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTWARD PUSH OF LGT PRECIP SO WILL NOT
PUT A MENTION IN YET. INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MIN
TEMPS AND MAY RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR FROST...AT LEAST IN THE
INTERIOR WEST CWA. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S OR
NEAR 30 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT MORE FROST...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
LAKES. IF THERE ARE BKN CLOUDS WEST...THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY EVENING RESULTING IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH SOME FROST
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
DUE TO COOL AND DAMP WEATHER AND MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
/HAD REPORT TODAY OF OVER 4 INCHES TO WEST OF ONTONAGON/...FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ARE TAKING A BRIEF HIATUS. EVENTUALLY DUE TO ALMOST A
WEEK OF DRYING...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK MAY SEE INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED A FULL
GREEN UP AND/OR SEEN A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
AS A STEADY NNE WIND BTWN HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND LO PRES
OVER THE LWR GRT LKS ADVECTS MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR OVER UPR MI...
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVNG. CMX WL BE CLOSER TO
THE INCOMING DRIER AIR AND SEE A QUICKER IMPROVEMENT THAN AT IWD/
SAW...WHERE A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL ALSO SLOW THE
TREND TOWARD VFR. UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY
NNE WINDS AT ALL 3 SITES TNGT/THU MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER SHARPENING PRES
GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD LAKE SUP THRU
TONIGHT. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR OVER THE
LAKE...SO LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CURRENT VISIBILITY REPORTS/WEBCAM IMAGERY NEAR THE LAKE...OPTED TO
CANX GOING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES THAT WERE SET TO EXPIRE AT 21Z.
CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS W TO E ON THU. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
000
FXUS63 KMQT 221725
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 00Z SOUNDS FROM CWPL
AND KGRB...THEY WERE OF VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. THE LARGER WX
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THIS...A LARGE 500MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH E MT A AND INTO CO...WITH A N STREAM LOW SET
UP OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND N QUEBEC...AND THE NEARLY STEADY
STATE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS S MN AND IA. THE LARGE SFC LOW
STRETCHING FROM IA THROUGH IL/LAKE MI/LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD.
THE AXIS OF STRONGER FGEN HAS BEEN PRODUCTIVE IN PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT WITH NOT MUCH AMPLIFICATION. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THIS AREA SHIFTS SE DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP AT OR ABOVE A TENTH
OF AN INCH WILL FALL OVER THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN SINK
TO S CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. WITH THE FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI 00-06Z THURSDAY. FOG WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...SLOWLY DIMINISHING N TO S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. EXPECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO FALL
INTO THE 30S NW TO SE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM LOWER MI THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING
HIGH FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE-NNE WINDS TO
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS OVER ALL BUT FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO 3C /LOWEST W/ BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...WITH SFC TEMPS UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S W AND CENTRAL. WE HAVEN/T SEEN LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN APPROX 5 DAYS...SO IT WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z THU. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING TO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SAT AND THE RIDGE STAYING PUT
IN THE PLAINS. LOOKS DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT
AND PUT IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HELP WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON STARTS AFTER MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
WHICH WAS THE ADJMET AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLDER SPOTS.
HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 50S. FOR FRI...WENT
COLDER FOR HIGHS AS WELL WITH A COLDER START IN THE MORNING AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ONLY TO 4C. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC
WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST. THE TEMPERATURES WERE THE
MAIN THING THAT I ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER
FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NW AND IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE 12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND QUIET WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEEING MUCH
RAIN OUT OF THIS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
AS A STEADY NNE WIND BTWN HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND LO PRES
OVER THE LWR GRT LKS ADVECTS MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR OVER UPR MI...
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVNG. CMX WL BE CLOSER TO
THE INCOMING DRIER AIR AND SEE A QUICKER IMPROVEMENT THAN AT IWD/
SAW...WHERE A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL ALSO SLOW THE
TREND TOWARD VFR. UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY
NNE WINDS AT ALL 3 SITES TNGT/THU MRNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG
ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ246>251-
265>267.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>242-245-263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
000
FXUS63 KMQT 221136
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 00Z SOUNDS FROM CWPL
AND KGRB...THEY WERE OF VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. THE LARGER WX
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THIS...A LARGE 500MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH E MT A AND INTO CO...WITH A N STREAM LOW SET
UP OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND N QUEBEC...AND THE NEARLY STEADY
STATE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS S MN AND IA. THE LARGE SFC LOW
STRETCHING FROM IA THROUGH IL/LAKE MI/LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD.
THE AXIS OF STRONGER FGEN HAS BEEN PRODUCTIVE IN PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT WITH NOT MUCH AMPLIFICATION. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THIS AREA SHIFTS SE DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP AT OR ABOVE A TENTH
OF AN INCH WILL FALL OVER THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN SINK
TO S CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. WITH THE FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI 00-06Z THURSDAY. FOG WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...SLOWLY DIMINISHING N TO S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. EXPECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO FALL
INTO THE 30S NW TO SE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM LOWER MI THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING
HIGH FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE-NNE WINDS TO
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS OVER ALL BUT FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO 3C /LOWEST W/ BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...WITH SFC TEMPS UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S W AND CENTRAL. WE HAVEN/T SEEN LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN APPROX 5 DAYS...SO IT WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z THU. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING TO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SAT AND THE RIDGE STAYING PUT
IN THE PLAINS. LOOKS DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT
AND PUT IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HELP WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON STARTS AFTER MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
WHICH WAS THE ADJMET AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLDER SPOTS.
HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 50S. FOR FRI...WENT
COLDER FOR HIGHS AS WELL WITH A COLDER START IN THE MORNING AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ONLY TO 4C. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC
WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST. THE TEMPERATURES WERE THE
MAIN THING THAT I ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER
FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NW AND IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE 12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND QUIET WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEEING MUCH
RAIN OUT OF THIS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX DUE TO THEIR
LOCATION IN RELATION TO AN AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FORCING.
THESE MORE PERSISTENT -SHRA SHOULD DRIFT SE AND AFFECT KSAW THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL SLOWLY BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG
ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-
266-267.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>242-245>248-263-265.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243-244-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...07
000
FXUS63 KMQT 220921
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 00Z SOUNDS FROM CWPL
AND KGRB...THEY WERE OF VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. THE LARGER WX
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THIS...A LARGE 500MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH E MT A AND INTO CO...WITH A N STREAM LOW SET
UP OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND N QUEBEC...AND THE NEARLY STEADY
STATE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS S MN AND IA. THE LARGE SFC LOW
STRETCHING FROM IA THROUGH IL/LAKE MI/LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD.
THE AXIS OF STRONGER FGEN HAS BEEN PRODUCTIVE IN PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT WITH NOT MUCH AMPLIFICATION. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THIS AREA SHIFTS SE DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP AT OR ABOVE A TENTH
OF AN INCH WILL FALL OVER THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN SINK
TO S CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. WITH THE FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI 00-06Z THURSDAY. FOG WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...SLOWLY DIMINISHING N TO S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. EXPECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO FALL
INTO THE 30S NW TO SE TONIGHT.
WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM LOWER MI THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING
HIGH FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE-NNE WINDS TO
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS OVER ALL BUT FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO 3C /LOWEST W/ BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...WITH SFC TEMPS UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S W AND CENTRAL. WE HAVEN/T SEEN LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN APPROX 5 DAYS...SO IT WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z THU. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING TO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SAT AND THE RIDGE STAYING PUT
IN THE PLAINS. LOOKS DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT
AND PUT IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HELP WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON STARTS AFTER MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
WHICH WAS THE ADJMET AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLDER SPOTS.
HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 50S. FOR FRI...WENT
COLDER FOR HIGHS AS WELL WITH A COLDER START IN THE MORNING AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ONLY TO 4C. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC
WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST. THE TEMPERATURES WERE THE
MAIN THING THAT I ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER
FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NW AND IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE 12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND QUIET WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEEING MUCH
RAIN OUT OF THIS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
COOL/MOIST AIR UPSLOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY END
UP VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSAW UNDER A MORE DIRECT LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX
DUE TO AN AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FORCING. THESE MORE
PERSISTENT -SHRA SHOULD DRIFT SE AND AFFECT KSAW WED AFTN. THERE IS
LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS LOW LOW PRES THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA IN RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL BE SHUNTED SE
BY HIGH PRES NOSING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S
WED AFTN/EVENING. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR IN THE
EVENING...PERHAPS SOONER...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD THAT KSAW IMPROVES TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG
ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-
266-267.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>242-245>248-263-265.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243-244-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
000
FXUS63 KMQT 220807
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING UPR LO
OVER ERN SDAKOTA BTWN UPR RDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OFF
THE SE CONUS. BAND OF SHRA/SCT TS THAT IMPACTED THE CWA EARLIER HAS
LIFTED TO THE N ALONG WITH RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
DRY WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT SINCE THE CWA IS N OF SFC
WARM FNT IN WI...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG...
MAINLY NEAR THE COOLER GREAT LKS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING N
THRU IOWA ARND THE CLOSED LO. THE APRCH OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER CENTRAL WI WHERE BREAKS IN THE LO CLDS
ALONG AND S OF WARM FNT HAVE LIFTED SB CAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SHRA/TS TRENDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV IN IOWA AND THEN APRCH OF MAIN UPR LO.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRA NOW OVER CENTRAL WI DRIFTING ACRS THE WI
BORDER BY 21Z AND THEN CONTINUING TO THE NE. RUC FCST SDNGS MODIFIED
FOR TEMP/DEWPT OF 68/58 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG...SO ADDED
MENTION OF TS. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS SFC-H5 AS WELL AS DEEP
MSTR/SKINNY CAPE WITH PERSISTENT LO CLDS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING
INDICATE A LO RISK FOR ANY SVR TS...BUT ANY SHRA COULD RESULT IN
SOME HEAVY RA WITH FCST KINX AS HI AS THE UPR 30S. ONCE THE SHRA
MOVE FARTHER TO THE NE AND AWAY FM THE SFC HEATING AREA...ONE MIGHT
EXPECT THESE SHRA TO DIMINISH THRU THE NGT. BUT FCST AREA OF H85-7
FGEN N OF WARM FNT MIGHT ACT TO SUSTAIN THESE SHRA. WL GO WITH HI
CHC-LIKELY POPS THIS EVNG NEAR THE WI BORDER DIMINISHING TO CHCY
POPS TO THE NE. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRA AREA...EXPECT COOLER LAKE
AIR/SOME FOG TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNGT.
WED...AS CLOSED LO TO THE W BEGINS TO SHIFT FASTER TO THE ESE TO SW
WI BY 00Z THU...AREA OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC WL IMPACT MAINLY
THE AREA NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPR CLO
BEGINS TO OPEN. BAND OF RA ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN OVER
WRN LK SUP/THE WRN ZNS SHOULD THUS SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE THRU THE
DAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW TO THE SE OF EXPANDING HI PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA MIGHT START TO DIMINISH THE PCPN OVER THE FAR W
LATER IN THE DAY. OTRW...LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR STEADY
NE WIND OFF LK SUP AND EXPECTED CLD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z THU. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING TO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SAT AND THE RIDGE STAYING PUT
IN THE PLAINS. LOOKS DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT
AND PUT IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HELP WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON STARTS AFTER MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
WHICH WAS THE ADJMET AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLDER SPOTS.
HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 50S. FOR FRI...WENT
COLDER FOR HIGHS AS WELL WITH A COLDER START IN THE MORNING AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ONLY TO 4C. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC
WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST. THE TEMPERATURES WERE THE
MAIN THING THAT I ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER
FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NW AND IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE 12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND QUIET WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEEING MUCH
RAIN OUT OF THIS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
COOL/MOIST AIR UPSLOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY END
UP VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSAW UNDER A MORE DIRECT LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX
DUE TO AN AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FORCING. THESE MORE
PERSISTENT -SHRA SHOULD DRIFT SE AND AFFECT KSAW WED AFTN. THERE IS
LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS LOW LOW PRES THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA IN RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL BE SHUNTED SE
BY HIGH PRES NOSING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S
WED AFTN/EVENING. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR IN THE
EVENING...PERHAPS SOONER...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD THAT KSAW IMPROVES TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG
ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-
266-267.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>242-245>248-263-265.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243-244-
264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
000
FXUS63 KMQT 220410
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1210 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING UPR LO
OVER ERN SDAKOTA BTWN UPR RDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OFF
THE SE CONUS. BAND OF SHRA/SCT TS THAT IMPACTED THE CWA EARLIER HAS
LIFTED TO THE N ALONG WITH RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
DRY WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT SINCE THE CWA IS N OF SFC
WARM FNT IN WI...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG...
MAINLY NEAR THE COOLER GREAT LKS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING N
THRU IOWA ARND THE CLOSED LO. THE APRCH OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER CENTRAL WI WHERE BREAKS IN THE LO CLDS
ALONG AND S OF WARM FNT HAVE LIFTED SB CAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SHRA/TS TRENDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV IN IOWA AND THEN APRCH OF MAIN UPR LO.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRA NOW OVER CENTRAL WI DRIFTING ACRS THE WI
BORDER BY 21Z AND THEN CONTINUING TO THE NE. RUC FCST SDNGS MODIFIED
FOR TEMP/DEWPT OF 68/58 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG...SO ADDED
MENTION OF TS. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS SFC-H5 AS WELL AS DEEP
MSTR/SKINNY CAPE WITH PERSISTENT LO CLDS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING
INDICATE A LO RISK FOR ANY SVR TS...BUT ANY SHRA COULD RESULT IN
SOME HEAVY RA WITH FCST KINX AS HI AS THE UPR 30S. ONCE THE SHRA
MOVE FARTHER TO THE NE AND AWAY FM THE SFC HEATING AREA...ONE MIGHT
EXPECT THESE SHRA TO DIMINISH THRU THE NGT. BUT FCST AREA OF H85-7
FGEN N OF WARM FNT MIGHT ACT TO SUSTAIN THESE SHRA. WL GO WITH HI
CHC-LIKELY POPS THIS EVNG NEAR THE WI BORDER DIMINISHING TO CHCY
POPS TO THE NE. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRA AREA...EXPECT COOLER LAKE
AIR/SOME FOG TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNGT.
WED...AS CLOSED LO TO THE W BEGINS TO SHIFT FASTER TO THE ESE TO SW
WI BY 00Z THU...AREA OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC WL IMPACT MAINLY
THE AREA NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPR CLO
BEGINS TO OPEN. BAND OF RA ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN OVER
WRN LK SUP/THE WRN ZNS SHOULD THUS SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE THRU THE
DAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW TO THE SE OF EXPANDING HI PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA MIGHT START TO DIMINISH THE PCPN OVER THE FAR W
LATER IN THE DAY. OTRW...LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR STEADY
NE WIND OFF LK SUP AND EXPECTED CLD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.
FIRST...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA
AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 00Z THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE ST LAWRENCE
SEAWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES THE
LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BE MOVING A RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...WITH THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW OVER THE AREA MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON AN
AREA OF FGEN SETUP FROM IRONWOOD THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
00Z THURSDAY. THEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE FGEN WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY EXIT THE MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT THE MOVEMENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES THE DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DRY CANADIAN AIR AND COOLER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
LEAD TO NICE BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE EXITING LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN MOST OF THE DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 50S INLAND. FRIDAY-SUNDAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS /60S/. THERE ARE HINTS OF A
COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRI-SUN...BUT WILL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUB FREEZING LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD BE FAVORABLE WELL BELOW NORMAL LOWS. MAV/MET
GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA WITH LOWS BETWEEN 25-30 OVER THE
WEST AND THAT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE. HAVE TRENDED THAT DIRECTION
AND LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE WEST AROUND 5 DEGREES. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES DON/T START UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY...SO THERE WON/T BE ANY
HEADLINES...BUT ANYONE THAT HAS PLANTED EARLY WILL NEED TO PREPARE
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TOWARDS MEMORIAL DAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...IT WILL ALSO BRING BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHORTWAVES
TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND MORE
LIKELY TOWARDS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
COOL/MOIST AIR UPSLOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY END
UP VLIFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSAW UNDER A MORE DIRECT LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KCMX
DUE TO AN AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC FORCING. THESE MORE
PERSISTENT -SHRA SHOULD DRIFT SE AND AFFECT KSAW WED AFTN. THERE IS
LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS LOW LOW PRES THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA IN RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL BE SHUNTED SE
BY HIGH PRES NOSING S TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S
WED AFTN/EVENING. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR IN THE
EVENING...PERHAPS SOONER...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD THAT KSAW IMPROVES TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GIVEN WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF LAKE SUP INTO THIS
MORNING...SOME RECENT SHIP OBS THAT INDICATED LO VISIBILITY...AND
SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS OVER THE LAKE...OPTED TO EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVY THRU TONIGHT. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW ON WED WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS...
WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AT THE HIER PLATFORMS...WILL CONTINUE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUP WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE
THE WIND SPEEDS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR LSZ162-243>249-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
000
FXUS63 KMQT 212345
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING UPR LO
OVER ERN SDAKOTA BTWN UPR RDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OFF
THE SE CONUS. BAND OF SHRA/SCT TS THAT IMPACTED THE CWA EARLIER HAS
LIFTED TO THE N ALONG WITH RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
DRY WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT SINCE THE CWA IS N OF SFC
WARM FNT IN WI...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG...
MAINLY NEAR THE COOLER GREAT LKS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING N
THRU IOWA ARND THE CLOSED LO. THE APRCH OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER CENTRAL WI WHERE BREAKS IN THE LO CLDS
ALONG AND S OF WARM FNT HAVE LIFTED SB CAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SHRA/TS TRENDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV IN IOWA AND THEN APRCH OF MAIN UPR LO.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRA NOW OVER CENTRAL WI DRIFTING ACRS THE WI
BORDER BY 21Z AND THEN CONTINUING TO THE NE. RUC FCST SDNGS MODIFIED
FOR TEMP/DEWPT OF 68/58 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG...SO ADDED
MENTION OF TS. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS SFC-H5 AS WELL AS DEEP
MSTR/SKINNY CAPE WITH PERSISTENT LO CLDS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING
INDICATE A LO RISK FOR ANY SVR TS...BUT ANY SHRA COULD RESULT IN
SOME HEAVY RA WITH FCST KINX AS HI AS THE UPR 30S. ONCE THE SHRA
MOVE FARTHER TO THE NE AND AWAY FM THE SFC HEATING AREA...ONE MIGHT
EXPECT THESE SHRA TO DIMINISH THRU THE NGT. BUT FCST AREA OF H85-7
FGEN N OF WARM FNT MIGHT ACT TO SUSTAIN THESE SHRA. WL GO WITH HI
CHC-LIKELY POPS THIS EVNG NEAR THE WI BORDER DIMINISHING TO CHCY
POPS TO THE NE. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRA AREA...EXPECT COOLER LAKE
AIR/SOME FOG TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNGT.
WED...AS CLOSED LO TO THE W BEGINS TO SHIFT FASTER TO THE ESE TO SW
WI BY 00Z THU...AREA OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC WL IMPACT MAINLY
THE AREA NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPR CLO
BEGINS TO OPEN. BAND OF RA ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN OVER
WRN LK SUP/THE WRN ZNS SHOULD THUS SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE THRU THE
DAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW TO THE SE OF EXPANDING HI PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA MIGHT START TO DIMINISH THE PCPN OVER THE FAR W
LATER IN THE DAY. OTRW...LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR STEADY
NE WIND OFF LK SUP AND EXPECTED CLD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.
FIRST...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA
AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 00Z THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE ST LAWRENCE
SEAWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES THE
LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BE MOVING A RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...WITH THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW OVER THE AREA MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON AN
AREA OF FGEN SETUP FROM IRONWOOD THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
00Z THURSDAY. THEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE FGEN WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY EXIT THE MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT THE MOVEMENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES THE DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DRY CANADIAN AIR AND COOLER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
LEAD TO NICE BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE EXITING LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN MOST OF THE DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 50S INLAND. FRIDAY-SUNDAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS /60S/. THERE ARE HINTS OF A
COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRI-SUN...BUT WILL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUB FREEZING LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD BE FAVORABLE WELL BELOW NORMAL LOWS. MAV/MET
GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA WITH LOWS BETWEEN 25-30 OVER THE
WEST AND THAT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE. HAVE TRENDED THAT DIRECTION
AND LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE WEST AROUND 5 DEGREES. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES DON/T START UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY...SO THERE WON/T BE ANY
HEADLINES...BUT ANYONE THAT HAS PLANTED EARLY WILL NEED TO PREPARE
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TOWARDS MEMORIAL DAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...IT WILL ALSO BRING BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHORTWAVES
TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND MORE
LIKELY TOWARDS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
COOL/MOIST AIR UPSLOPING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE NIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA AT
TIMES ALONG WITH SOME -DZ. DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN TO MAKE INROADS FROM
THE N DURING THE DAY WED AS LOW PRES THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA IN
RECENT DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE S
TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. IF SO...KCMX SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW MVFR IN
THE AFTN AND KIWD MAY IMPROVE TO IFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GIVEN WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF LAKE SUP INTO THIS
MORNING...SOME RECENT SHIP OBS THAT INDICATED LO VISIBILITY...AND
SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS OVER THE LAKE...OPTED TO EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVY THRU TONIGHT. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW ON WED WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS...
WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AT THE HIER PLATFORMS...WILL CONTINUE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUP WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE
THE WIND SPEEDS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ162-243>249-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
000
FXUS63 KMQT 211958
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
12Z ROABS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING UPR LO
OVER ERN SDAKOTA BTWN UPR RDG OVER SCENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE OFF
THE SE CONUS. BAND OF SHRA/SCT TS THAT IMPACTED THE CWA EARLIER HAS
LIFTED TO THE N ALONG WITH RESPONSIBLE SHRTWV...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY
DRY WX OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS AFTN. BUT SINCE THE CWA IS N OF SFC
WARM FNT IN WI...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER. THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG...
MAINLY NEAR THE COOLER GREAT LKS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING N
THRU IOWA ARND THE CLOSED LO. THE APRCH OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
RESULTED IN SOME SHRA OVER CENTRAL WI WHERE BREAKS IN THE LO CLDS
ALONG AND S OF WARM FNT HAVE LIFTED SB CAPE 500-1000 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SHRA/TS TRENDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHRTWV IN IOWA AND THEN APRCH OF MAIN UPR LO.
LATE THIS AFTN/TNGT...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRA NOW OVER CENTRAL WI DRIFTING ACRS THE WI
BORDER BY 21Z AND THEN CONTINUING TO THE NE. RUC FCST SDNGS MODIFIED
FOR TEMP/DEWPT OF 68/58 YIELDS SBCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG...SO ADDED
MENTION OF TS. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS SFC-H5 AS WELL AS DEEP
MSTR/SKINNY CAPE WITH PERSISTENT LO CLDS LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING
INDICATE A LO RISK FOR ANY SVR TS...BUT ANY SHRA COULD RESULT IN
SOME HEAVY RA WITH FCST KINX AS HI AS THE UPR 30S. ONCE THE SHRA
MOVE FARTHER TO THE NE AND AWAY FM THE SFC HEATING AREA...ONE MIGHT
EXPECT THESE SHRA TO DIMINISH THRU THE NGT. BUT FCST AREA OF H85-7
FGEN N OF WARM FNT MIGHT ACT TO SUSTAIN THESE SHRA. WL GO WITH HI
CHC-LIKELY POPS THIS EVNG NEAR THE WI BORDER DIMINISHING TO CHCY
POPS TO THE NE. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK MORE TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHRA AREA...EXPECT COOLER LAKE
AIR/SOME FOG TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNGT.
WED...AS CLOSED LO TO THE W BEGINS TO SHIFT FASTER TO THE ESE TO SW
WI BY 00Z THU...AREA OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR CNVGC WL IMPACT MAINLY
THE AREA NEAR THE WI BORDER BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPR CLO
BEGINS TO OPEN. BAND OF RA ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF SHARPER FGEN OVER
WRN LK SUP/THE WRN ZNS SHOULD THUS SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SE THRU THE
DAY. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW TO THE SE OF EXPANDING HI PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA MIGHT START TO DIMINISH THE PCPN OVER THE FAR W
LATER IN THE DAY. OTRW...LOWERED FCST HI TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR STEADY
NE WIND OFF LK SUP AND EXPECTED CLD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AFTER A WET START TO THE WEEK...THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY DRY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.
FIRST...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA
AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AT 00Z THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE ST LAWRENCE
SEAWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES THE
LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL BE MOVING A RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW...THERE WILL STILL BE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-700MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...WITH THE INCREASING
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW OVER THE AREA MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON AN
AREA OF FGEN SETUP FROM IRONWOOD THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT
00Z THURSDAY. THEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE FGEN WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIKELY EXIT THE MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THAT THE MOVEMENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES THE DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...AS THE AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DRY CANADIAN AIR AND COOLER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
LEAD TO NICE BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL START TO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE
ON THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE EXITING LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN MOST OF THE DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE 50S INLAND. FRIDAY-SUNDAY
WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZES EACH DAY...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS /60S/. THERE ARE HINTS OF A
COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRI-SUN...BUT WILL THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUB FREEZING LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL
AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD BE FAVORABLE WELL BELOW NORMAL LOWS. MAV/MET
GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA WITH LOWS BETWEEN 25-30 OVER THE
WEST AND THAT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE. HAVE TRENDED THAT DIRECTION
AND LOWERED TEMPS OVER THE WEST AROUND 5 DEGREES. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES DON/T START UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY...SO THERE WON/T BE ANY
HEADLINES...BUT ANYONE THAT HAS PLANTED EARLY WILL NEED TO PREPARE
FOR A POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TOWARDS MEMORIAL DAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...IT WILL ALSO BRING BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHORTWAVES
TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND MORE
LIKELY TOWARDS TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR DOME PERSISTING N OF SFC WARM FNT IN WI...
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE/WHEN THE BACKING LLVL FLOW UPSLOPES.
VLIFR WX IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT CMX INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE NE DIRECTION AND WEAKENS THE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT
AT THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GIVEN WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA THAT IMPACTED MUCH OF LAKE SUP INTO THIS
MORNING...SOME RECENT SHIP OBS THAT INDICATED LO VISIBILITY...AND
SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS OVER THE LAKE...OPTED TO EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVY THRU TONIGHT. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW ON WED WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG. OTHERWISE...NE WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS...
WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS AT THE HIER PLATFORMS...WILL CONTINUE
STRONGEST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUP WHERE TERRAIN FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE
THE WIND SPEEDS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ162-243>249-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
000
FXUS63 KMQT 211728
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
128 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...A 500 MB
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE 500 MB LOW MOVES SLOWLY SE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
COMPLICATED FORECAST AGAIN TODAY COMPLICATED FURTHER BY A
SIGNIFICANT DATA OUTAGE THAT AFFECTED OBS AND COMPUTER PERFORMANCE.
ANYWAY...TRYING TO TIME OUT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND KICKING
OFF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A WAVE OF
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAY SEE A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE MORE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THINK THE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE SCATTERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL START OFF
WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN ANY SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
LEAD TO A BIG FORECAST BUST. THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SUNSHINE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST THAT LONG
TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH. DID KEEP LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY
IN THAT AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK TO CONTINUE
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER AND STARTS TO DROP A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH TIME. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM A BIT NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS AS
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY COLD. AS FOR FOG...KEPT THE
ADVISORY GOING IN THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH WITH UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN THAT
FALLS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE FOG THERE
FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...OR THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOLER...BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT.
INCREASED NW WINDS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25KT RANGE OVER MAIN CENTRAL...GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHED FROM OH THROUGH
NORTHERN ME...AND THE 1027MB/30.3IN RIDGE CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MI. EXPECT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY EVENING THE RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE GETTING RID OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
UNTIL MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY. OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE GETTING
RID OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...EVEN WITH TRICKY
NW FLOW ALOFT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SFC TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS SW TOWARD
THE WI BORDER.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD UNTIL THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR DOME PERSISTING N OF SFC WARM FNT IN WI...
EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE/WHEN THE BACKING LLVL FLOW UPSLOPES.
VLIFR WX IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AT CMX INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE NE DIRECTION AND WEAKENS THE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT
AT THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD MARINE WISE WILL BE THE NW WINDS
FUNNELING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SECOND THREAT WILL BE THE CONTINUED FOG
THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NNW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER S MINNESOTA WILL CROSS INTO WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME STRONG...DRY...AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS A
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162-243>249-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 211005
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
605 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...A 500 MB
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE 500 MB LOW MOVES SLOWLY SE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
COMPLICATED FORECAST AGAIN TODAY COMPLICATED FURTHER BY A
SIGNIFICANT DATA OUTAGE THAT AFFECTED OBS AND COMPUTER PERFORMANCE.
ANYWAY...TRYING TO TIME OUT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND KICKING
OFF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A WAVE OF
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAY SEE A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE MORE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THINK THE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE SCATTERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL START OFF
WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN ANY SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
LEAD TO A BIG FORECAST BUST. THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SUNSHINE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST THAT LONG
TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH. DID KEEP LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY
IN THAT AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK TO CONTINUE
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER AND STARTS TO DROP A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH TIME. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM A BIT NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS AS
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY COLD. AS FOR FOG...KEPT THE
ADVISORY GOING IN THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH WITH UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN THAT
FALLS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE FOG THERE
FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...OR THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOLER...BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT.
INCREASED NW WINDS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25KT RANGE OVER MAIN CENTRAL...GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHED FROM OH THROUGH
NORTHERN ME...AND THE 1027MB/30.3IN RIDGE CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MI. EXPECT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY EVENING THE RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE GETTING RID OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
UNTIL MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY. OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE GETTING
RID OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...EVEN WITH TRICKY
NW FLOW ALOFT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SFC TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS SW TOWARD
THE WI BORDER.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD UNTIL THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
AVIATION FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENING THRU THIS PERIOD. WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS DOMINATING AT KCMX THRU THE NIGHT...VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
TUE MORNING AND MAYBE MORE SO TUE AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NE AND DIMINISH THE UPSLOPING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TUE MORNING. AT KIWD...
SHRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL RESULT IN OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR THAN IFR OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE...BRINGING COOL/MOIST AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...STRATUS PATCHES
LURKING TO THE E AND SE SHOULD SPREAD/EXPAND NW THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR
THEN IFR BY MID/LATE EVENING. PERIOD OF SHRA/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH NE WINDS DURING THE DAY TUE...MAY NOT SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ABOVE IFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD MARINE WISE WILL BE THE NW WINDS
FUNNELING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SECOND THREAT WILL BE THE CONTINUED FOG
THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NNW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER S MINNESOTA WILL CROSS INTO WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME STRONG...DRY...AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS A
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243>249-
263>267.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 210901
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...A 500 MB
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE 500 MB LOW MOVES SLOWLY SE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
COMPLICATED FORECAST AGAIN TODAY COMPLICATED FURTHER BY A
SIGNIFICANT DATA OUTAGE THAT AFFECTED OBS AND COMPUTER PERFORMANCE.
ANYWAY...TRYING TO TIME OUT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND KICKING
OFF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A WAVE OF
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAY SEE A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE MORE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THINK THE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE SCATTERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL START OFF
WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN ANY SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
LEAD TO A BIG FORECAST BUST. THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SUNSHINE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST THAT LONG
TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH. DID KEEP LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY
IN THAT AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK TO CONTINUE
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER AND STARTS TO DROP A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH TIME. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM A BIT NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS AS
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY COLD. AS FOR FOG...KEPT THE
ADVISORY GOING IN THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH WITH UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN THAT
FALLS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE FOG THERE
FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS WEEK WILL BE THE PASSING OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSED 500MB
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE ITS WAY JUST
SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT
REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW EXTENDS
FROM A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC. AT THE 300MB LEVEL LEFT EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE HAS
HELPED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS JET WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BY WEDNESDAY UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS BEST
LIFT GENERALLY ALONG SOUTHWESTERN-SOUTHERN UPPER MI/LOWER
MI/WISCONSIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
THROUGH ALL OF WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI BEFORE THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS/HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
PWATS DURING THIS TIME STILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. HAVE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR POPS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA AND THE SFC LOW EXITS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECTING FOG
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION FOR UPPER MI.
WITH DRY AIR SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS...NORTHERLY WINDS...AND 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 2-4C...THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S....BELOW NORMAL BY
LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S/30S WHICH BRINGS MINIMUM RH FIELDS TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR
MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE 500MB LOW IN QUEBEC WILL PASS
OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE NOTHING
WILL COME OF IT BEYOND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTER FRIDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPRAWL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
AVIATION FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENING THRU THIS PERIOD. WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS DOMINATING AT KCMX THRU THE NIGHT...VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
TUE MORNING AND MAYBE MORE SO TUE AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NE AND DIMINISH THE UPSLOPING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TUE MORNING. AT KIWD...
SHRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL RESULT IN OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR THAN IFR OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE...BRINGING COOL/MOIST AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...STRATUS PATCHES
LURKING TO THE E AND SE SHOULD SPREAD/EXPAND NW THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR
THEN IFR BY MID/LATE EVENING. PERIOD OF SHRA/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH NE WINDS DURING THE DAY TUE...MAY NOT SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ABOVE IFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD MARINE WISE WILL BE THE NW WINDS
FUNNELING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SECOND THREAT WILL BE THE CONTINUED FOG
THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NNW.
LOW PRESSURE OVER S MINNESOTA WILL CROSS INTO WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME STRONG...DRY...AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS A
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243>249-
263>267.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 202353
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
753 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED UPR LO OVER
THE NRN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS
INTO THE SE CONUS. DRY SLOTTING ALF TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE AS
SHOWN BY HIER 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT GRB/DAVENPORT IA
HAS TENDED TO STUNT SHRA DVLPMENT OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
MORE PERSISTENT AXIS OF GREATER MSTR/HIER KINX OVER THE ERN CWA AND
SHRTWV MOVING NE FM WI HAS LED TO MORE SHRA/ELEVATED TS IN THAT
AREA. LO CLDS HAVE LINGERED N OF SFC WARM FNT AS WELL EXCEPT OVER
THE W...WHERE SOME LLVL DRYING/DAYTIME HEATING HAVE TENDED TO MIX
OUT THE LO CLDS AND BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S. TO THE W...12Z MPX
RAOB SHOWS A MUCH MOISTER AIRMASS. SOME SHRA ARE DVLPG IN WRN WI
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS DEEPER
MSTR. FARTHER TO THE SW...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED
LO AND THRU THE SCENTRAL PLAINS.
CHALLENGING FCST THRU THE SHORT TERM. BUT WITH CUTOFF LO SWIRLING TO
THE W...TENDED TO FOLLOW THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE MODELS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
TNGT...EXPECT UPR DRY SLOT TO BRING A RELATIVELY QUIET LATE AFTN/
EARLY EVNG TIME TO THE CWA PER MOST OF RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LINGERING SHRA/TS OVER THE E TO END LATE THIS AFTN WITH
DRYING AT H85-7 SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF HIER MSTR TO THE E. SHRA NOW
DVLPG IN WRN WI E OF MOISTER AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB AND
NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT THE WRN ZNS THIS EVNG
AS THEY DRIFT NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ALF E OF THE UPR LO...SO CARRIED
CHC POPS IN THIS AREA THRU THE EVNG. LATER TNGT...PREFERRED 12Z
GFS/REG CNDN MODELS SHOW MORE SHRA/TS ARRIVING OVER THE SCENTRAL
COUNTIES AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE SCENTRAL PLAINS ACCOMPANIED
BY JET MAX/UPR DVGC CORE ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEARLY STNRY
CLOSED LO TO THE W. FCST LIKELY POPS ARRIVING LATE IN THIS AREA.
OTRW..TENDED TOWARD THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS EXCEPT
NEAR THE GREAT LKS.
TUE...SHRA/SOME TS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD E OF THE
MAIN CLOSED LO WL IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL/ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MID LVL DRYING. APRCH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FM
THE SSW ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO MAY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHRA/TS NEAR THE WI BORDER LATER IN THE DAY. HI TEMPS FCST WL BE
TRICKY. THE CNDN MODEL HINTS AT MORE OF A SFC WAVE RIDING THRU THE
ECENTRAL AND HINTS THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE IN THIS AREA IN THE
AFTN. RIGHT NOW...PLAYED THE FCST FOR MORE CLDS/A LLVL NE FLOW OFF
THE COOL WATERS OF LK SUP TO THE N OF STNRY FNT JUST TO THE W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS WEEK WILL BE THE PASSING OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSED 500MB
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE ITS WAY JUST
SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT
REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW EXTENDS
FROM A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC. AT THE 300MB LEVEL LEFT EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE HAS
HELPED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS JET WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BY WEDNESDAY UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS BEST
LIFT GENERALLY ALONG SOUTHWESTERN-SOUTHERN UPPER MI/LOWER
MI/WISCONSIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
THROUGH ALL OF WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI BEFORE THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS/HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
PWATS DURING THIS TIME STILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. HAVE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR POPS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA AND THE SFC LOW EXITS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECTING FOG
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION FOR UPPER MI.
WITH DRY AIR SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS...NORTHERLY WINDS...AND 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 2-4C...THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S....BELOW NORMAL BY
LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S/30S WHICH BRINGS MINIMUM RH FIELDS TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR
MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE 500MB LOW IN QUEBEC WILL PASS
OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE NOTHING
WILL COME OF IT BEYOND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTER FRIDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPRAWL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
AVIATION FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENING THRU THIS PERIOD. WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS DOMINATING AT KCMX THRU THE NIGHT...VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
TUE MORNING AND MAYBE MORE SO TUE AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NE AND DIMINISH THE UPSLOPING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TUE MORNING. AT KIWD...
SHRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL RESULT IN OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR THAN IFR OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE...BRINGING COOL/MOIST AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...STRATUS PATCHES
LURKING TO THE E AND SE SHOULD SPREAD/EXPAND NW THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR
THEN IFR BY MID/LATE EVENING. PERIOD OF SHRA/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH NE WINDS DURING THE DAY TUE...MAY NOT SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ABOVE IFR AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
NE GALES OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUP WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN FUNNELING
OF THAT FLOW WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WILL LET GALE WARNING EXPIRE AT 03Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM THE N BY
LATER TUE WITH GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW TO
THE S OF HI PRES OVER ONTARIO.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>249-263>267.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MCD
000
FXUS63 KMQT 202012
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED UPR LO OVER
THE NRN PLAINS UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG EXTENDING FM THE CENTRAL GRT LKS
INTO THE SE CONUS. DRY SLOTTING ALF TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE AS
SHOWN BY HIER 12Z H85 AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT GRB/DAVENPORT IA
HAS TENDED TO STUNT SHRA DVLPMENT OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA...BUT
MORE PERSISTENT AXIS OF GREATER MSTR/HIER KINX OVER THE ERN CWA AND
SHRTWV MOVING NE FM WI HAS LED TO MORE SHRA/ELEVATED TS IN THAT
AREA. LO CLDS HAVE LINGERED N OF SFC WARM FNT AS WELL EXCEPT OVER
THE W...WHERE SOME LLVL DRYING/DAYTIME HEATING HAVE TENDED TO MIX
OUT THE LO CLDS AND BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 70S. TO THE W...12Z MPX
RAOB SHOWS A MUCH MOISTER AIRMASS. SOME SHRA ARE DVLPG IN WRN WI
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ON THE ERN EDGE OF THIS DEEPER
MSTR. FARTHER TO THE SW...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED
LO AND THRU THE SCENTRAL PLAINS.
CHALLENGING FCST THRU THE SHORT TERM. BUT WITH CUTOFF LO SWIRLING TO
THE W...TENDED TO FOLLOW THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE MODELS FOR FCST
PREPARATION.
TNGT...EXPECT UPR DRY SLOT TO BRING A RELATIVELY QUIET LATE AFTN/
EARLY EVNG TIME TO THE CWA PER MOST OF RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LINGERING SHRA/TS OVER THE E TO END LATE THIS AFTN WITH
DRYING AT H85-7 SLOWLY PUSHING AXIS OF HIER MSTR TO THE E. SHRA NOW
DVLPG IN WRN WI E OF MOISTER AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB AND
NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT THE WRN ZNS THIS EVNG
AS THEY DRIFT NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ALF E OF THE UPR LO...SO CARRIED
CHC POPS IN THIS AREA THRU THE EVNG. LATER TNGT...PREFERRED 12Z
GFS/REG CNDN MODELS SHOW MORE SHRA/TS ARRIVING OVER THE SCENTRAL
COUNTIES AS SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU THE SCENTRAL PLAINS ACCOMPANIED
BY JET MAX/UPR DVGC CORE ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF THE NEARLY STNRY
CLOSED LO TO THE W. FCST LIKELY POPS ARRIVING LATE IN THIS AREA.
OTRW..TENDED TOWARD THE HIER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS EXCEPT
NEAR THE GREAT LKS.
TUE...SHRA/SOME TS ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD E OF THE
MAIN CLOSED LO WL IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL/ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MID LVL DRYING. APRCH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FM
THE SSW ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO MAY BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHRA/TS NEAR THE WI BORDER LATER IN THE DAY. HI TEMPS FCST WL BE
TRICKY. THE CNDN MODEL HINTS AT MORE OF A SFC WAVE RIDING THRU THE
ECENTRAL AND HINTS THERE COULD BE MORE SUNSHINE IN THIS AREA IN THE
AFTN. RIGHT NOW...PLAYED THE FCST FOR MORE CLDS/A LLVL NE FLOW OFF
THE COOL WATERS OF LK SUP TO THE N OF STNRY FNT JUST TO THE W.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS WEEK WILL BE THE PASSING OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOSED 500MB
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE ITS WAY JUST
SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT
REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW EXTENDS
FROM A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC. AT THE 300MB LEVEL LEFT EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE HAS
HELPED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS JET WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BY WEDNESDAY UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOWS BEST
LIFT GENERALLY ALONG SOUTHWESTERN-SOUTHERN UPPER MI/LOWER
MI/WISCONSIN ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH
LOWER MI AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
THROUGH ALL OF WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI BEFORE THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS/HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
PWATS DURING THIS TIME STILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. HAVE A DIMINISHING TREND FOR POPS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD AS DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA AND THE SFC LOW EXITS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECTING FOG
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND
MERGE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION FOR UPPER MI.
WITH DRY AIR SCOURING OUT THE CLOUDS...NORTHERLY WINDS...AND 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 2-4C...THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S....BELOW NORMAL BY
LATE MAY STANDARDS. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 20S/30S WHICH BRINGS MINIMUM RH FIELDS TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR
MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE 500MB LOW IN QUEBEC WILL PASS
OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE NOTHING
WILL COME OF IT BEYOND SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTER FRIDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPRAWL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
CHALLENING AVIATION FCST TODAY. BUT WITH CWA N OF SFC WARM FNT AND
STEADY UPSLOPE E-SE WIND...EXPECT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX...WHERE
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVNG. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD
THRU THE AFTN...BUT EXPECTED WSHFT TO THE NE OFF COOL/MOIST LK SUP
THIS EVNG/TUE SHOULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS OVER THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
NE GALES OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUP WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN FUNNELING
OF THAT FLOW WILL TEND TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT. WILL LET GALE WARNING EXPIRE AT 03Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM THE N BY
LATER TUE WITH GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW TO
THE S OF HI PRES OVER ONTARIO.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. &&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...MCD
000
FXUS63 KMQT 201736
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
BASED ON DRYNESS ARND H85 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE
H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 11C...TENDED TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOR TODAY.
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE CWA THRU THE
AFTN. MAINTAINED THE HIER CHC POPS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...
WHERE HIER H85 DEWPTS ARE PROGGED TO LINGER LONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH HEADS SLOWLY
EAST WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOT MOVING VERY MUCH AT ALL.
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS. TRICKY
FORECAST COMING UP WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO CONVECTION
BEING HARD TO DETERMINE AND THIS OF COURSE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE MORE SUN THAT WE SEE...THE WARMER THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AND THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES HAVE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER BEING THE BIG QUESTION. THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE SOME
LIMITED SUNSHINE AND ENDED UP WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THAT AREA IS FURTHER FROM
THE STRONG FORCING AND HAS SOME DRIER AIR AWAY FROM THE SFC WARM
FRONT. DID GRADUALLY BRING HIGH POPS OVER THE CWA TODAY AS SYSTEM
DRAWS CLOSER AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR TONIGHT AS THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE AN MCS/MCC IN THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. DID NOT HAVE ANY TIME TO LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALL DEPENDS ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT CANNOT BE ANSWERED
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NEARLY STEADY STATE 500MB LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN AT 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE
LOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
SPINNING OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WI BORDER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...WITH LAKE MICHIGAN FOG LIKELY REMAINING STRONG THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION.
EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY ON...AS THE
REINFORCING 500MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. THE LAST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /SUNDAY/...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 19/12Z ECMWF FALL TO A RATHER COOL 0 TO -3C
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN
FROM THE NNW. THE 20/00Z RUN WARMED UP SLIGHTLY AND LINED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH THE GFS...AROUND 0 TO 2C FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...TO NEAR 70F SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR THE WI BORDER. WE
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS...IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER...WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S NEAR THE WI BORDER.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. UP THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...THANKS THE THE BOOKEND 500MB LOWS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS QUEBEC. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD...AND RIGHT ACROSS WI/MN/WESTERN UPPER MI AND
LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK
IN...BUT WITH NO GREAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS STILL BY SUNDAY AS THE LARGE/STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO SINKS CLOSER TO THE
AREA. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
SINKING IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO RESULT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. IF ANY SHOWERS OR TS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE 500MB AND SFC LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
CHALLENING AVIATION FCST TODAY. BUT WITH CWA N OF SFC WARM FNT AND
STEADY UPSLOPE E-SE WIND...EXPECT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THRU THE FCST PERIOD AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX...WHERE
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVNG. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD
THRU THE AFTN...BUT EXPECTED WSHFT TO THE NE OFF COOL/MOIST LK SUP
THIS EVNG/TUE SHOULD BRING IFR CONDITIONS OVER THAT SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT THE
HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A FEW GUSTS
OF 30-35KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES ABOUT 10KTS
LOWER THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER. HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF AROUND
2-5SM VIS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. EXPECT FOG
TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY /FOR MAINLY S LAKE SUPERIOR/.
EXPECT A RIDGE OVER N MANITOBA TO SLIDE ACROSS JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...AND EXIT E ACROSS QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD FILL SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY OVER STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N
CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 201401
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1001 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
BASED ON DRYNESS ARND H85 AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB...WHERE THE
H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION WAS 11C...TENDED TO TRIM POPS A BIT FOR TODAY.
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE CWA THRU THE
AFTN. MAINTAINED THE HIER CHC POPS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...
WHERE HIER H85 DEWPTS ARE PROGGED TO LINGER LONGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH HEADS SLOWLY
EAST WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOT MOVING VERY MUCH AT ALL.
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS. TRICKY
FORECAST COMING UP WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO CONVECTION
BEING HARD TO DETERMINE AND THIS OF COURSE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE MORE SUN THAT WE SEE...THE WARMER THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AND THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES HAVE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER BEING THE BIG QUESTION. THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE SOME
LIMITED SUNSHINE AND ENDED UP WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THAT AREA IS FURTHER FROM
THE STRONG FORCING AND HAS SOME DRIER AIR AWAY FROM THE SFC WARM
FRONT. DID GRADUALLY BRING HIGH POPS OVER THE CWA TODAY AS SYSTEM
DRAWS CLOSER AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR TONIGHT AS THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE AN MCS/MCC IN THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. DID NOT HAVE ANY TIME TO LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALL DEPENDS ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT CANNOT BE ANSWERED
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NEARLY STEADY STATE 500MB LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN AT 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE
LOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
SPINNING OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WI BORDER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...WITH LAKE MICHIGAN FOG LIKELY REMAINING STRONG THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION.
EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY ON...AS THE
REINFORCING 500MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. THE LAST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /SUNDAY/...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 19/12Z ECMWF FALL TO A RATHER COOL 0 TO -3C
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN
FROM THE NNW. THE 20/00Z RUN WARMED UP SLIGHTLY AND LINED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH THE GFS...AROUND 0 TO 2C FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...TO NEAR 70F SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR THE WI BORDER. WE
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS...IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER...WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S NEAR THE WI BORDER.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. UP THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...THANKS THE THE BOOKEND 500MB LOWS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS QUEBEC. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD...AND RIGHT ACROSS WI/MN/WESTERN UPPER MI AND
LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK
IN...BUT WITH NO GREAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS STILL BY SUNDAY AS THE LARGE/STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO SINKS CLOSER TO THE
AREA. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
SINKING IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO RESULT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. IF ANY SHOWERS OR TS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE 500MB AND SFC LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
CHALLENGING FCST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN IS LIKELY TODAY...BUT NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW
MUCH OR WHEN IT WILL DEVELOP. WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD UNTIL
PCPN DEVELOPS BY THIS EVENING AND THEN LOW IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN
WITH HELP FROM MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SHRA/TSRA
AT TIMES...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BEST TIME FRAME. AT KCMX...UPSLOPE
E FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD SUGGESTS PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS. AT
KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT THE
HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A FEW GUSTS
OF 30-35KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES ABOUT 10KTS
LOWER THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER. HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF AROUND
2-5SM VIS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. EXPECT FOG
TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY /FOR MAINLY S LAKE SUPERIOR/.
EXPECT A RIDGE OVER N MANITOBA TO SLIDE ACROSS JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...AND EXIT E ACROSS QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD FILL SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY OVER STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N
CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 201123
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH HEADS SLOWLY
EAST WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOT MOVING VERY MUCH AT ALL.
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS. TRICKY
FORECAST COMING UP WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO CONVECTION
BEING HARD TO DETERMINE AND THIS OF COURSE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE MORE SUN THAT WE SEE...THE WARMER THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AND THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES HAVE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER BEING THE BIG QUESTION. THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE SOME
LIMITED SUNSHINE AND ENDED UP WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THAT AREA IS FURTHER FROM
THE STRONG FORCING AND HAS SOME DRIER AIR AWAY FROM THE SFC WARM
FRONT. DID GRADUALLY BRING HIGH POPS OVER THE CWA TODAY AS SYSTEM
DRAWS CLOSER AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR TONIGHT AS THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE AN MCS/MCC IN THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. DID NOT HAVE ANY TIME TO LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALL DEPENDS ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT CANNOT BE ANSWERED
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NEARLY STEADY STATE 500MB LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN AT 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE
LOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
SPINNING OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WI BORDER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...WITH LAKE MICHIGAN FOG LIKELY REMAINING STRONG THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION.
EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY ON...AS THE
REINFORCING 500MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. THE LAST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /SUNDAY/...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 19/12Z ECMWF FALL TO A RATHER COOL 0 TO -3C
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN
FROM THE NNW. THE 20/00Z RUN WARMED UP SLIGHTLY AND LINED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH THE GFS...AROUND 0 TO 2C FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...TO NEAR 70F SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR THE WI BORDER. WE
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS...IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER...WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S NEAR THE WI BORDER.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. UP THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...THANKS THE THE BOOKEND 500MB LOWS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS QUEBEC. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD...AND RIGHT ACROSS WI/MN/WESTERN UPPER MI AND
LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK
IN...BUT WITH NO GREAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS STILL BY SUNDAY AS THE LARGE/STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO SINKS CLOSER TO THE
AREA. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
SINKING IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO RESULT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. IF ANY SHOWERS OR TS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE 500MB AND SFC LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
CHALLENGING FCST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN IS LIKELY TODAY...BUT NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW
MUCH OR WHEN IT WILL DEVELOP. WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD UNTIL
PCPN DEVELOPS BY THIS EVENING AND THEN LOW IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN
WITH HELP FROM MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SHRA/TSRA
AT TIMES...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BEST TIME FRAME. AT KCMX...UPSLOPE
E FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD SUGGESTS PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS. AT
KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
PERIOD UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT THE
HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A FEW GUSTS
OF 30-35KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES ABOUT 10KTS
LOWER THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER. HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF AROUND
2-5SM VIS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. EXPECT FOG
TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY /FOR MAINLY S LAKE SUPERIOR/.
EXPECT A RIDGE OVER N MANITOBA TO SLIDE ACROSS JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...AND EXIT E ACROSS QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD FILL SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY OVER STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N
CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 200915
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH HEADS SLOWLY
EAST WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOT MOVING VERY MUCH AT ALL.
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS. TRICKY
FORECAST COMING UP WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO CONVECTION
BEING HARD TO DETERMINE AND THIS OF COURSE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE MORE SUN THAT WE SEE...THE WARMER THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AND THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES HAVE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER BEING THE BIG QUESTION. THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE SOME
LIMITED SUNSHINE AND ENDED UP WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THAT AREA IS FURTHER FROM
THE STRONG FORCING AND HAS SOME DRIER AIR AWAY FROM THE SFC WARM
FRONT. DID GRADUALLY BRING HIGH POPS OVER THE CWA TODAY AS SYSTEM
DRAWS CLOSER AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR TONIGHT AS THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE AN MCS/MCC IN THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. DID NOT HAVE ANY TIME TO LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALL DEPENDS ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT CANNOT BE ANSWERED
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE NEARLY STEADY STATE 500MB LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN AT 12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT THE
LOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...MERGING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
SPINNING OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WI BORDER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...WITH LAKE MICHIGAN FOG LIKELY REMAINING STRONG THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION.
EXPECT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY ON...AS THE
REINFORCING 500MB TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. THE LAST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD BE THE RULE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /SUNDAY/...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.
850MB TEMPS OFF THE 19/12Z ECMWF FALL TO A RATHER COOL 0 TO -3C
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN
FROM THE NNW. THE 20/00Z RUN WARMED UP SLIGHTLY AND LINED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH THE GFS...AROUND 0 TO 2C FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...TO NEAR 70F SOUTH CENTRAL AND NEAR THE WI BORDER. WE
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS...IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER...WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S NEAR THE WI BORDER.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. UP THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...THANKS THE THE BOOKEND 500MB LOWS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS QUEBEC. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD...AND RIGHT ACROSS WI/MN/WESTERN UPPER MI AND
LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY CREEP BACK
IN...BUT WITH NO GREAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS STILL BY SUNDAY AS THE LARGE/STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MUCH OF ONTARIO SINKS CLOSER TO THE
AREA. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
SINKING IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO RESULT IN
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS. IF ANY SHOWERS OR TS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST...CLOSER TO THE 500MB AND SFC LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
CHALLENGING FCST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WITH RADAR
SHOWING PLENTY OF PCPN UPSTREAM...EXPECT SHRA/OCNL TSRA AT KIWD
OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN VFR/MVFR. AFTER MID
MORNING...PCPN FCST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BEST TIME FRAME.
GENERALLY FAVORED VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DOWNSLOPING ESE/SE WIND. AT
KCMX...UPSLOPE E FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD SUGGESTS PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT AS OBS HAVE SHOWN...THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY
AT TIMES. EXPECT OCNL SHRA. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD ALONG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MAY
BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT THE
HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A FEW GUSTS
OF 30-35KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES ABOUT 10KTS
LOWER THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER. HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF AROUND
2-5SM VIS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. EXPECT FOG
TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY /FOR MAINLY S LAKE SUPERIOR/.
EXPECT A RIDGE OVER N MANITOBA TO SLIDE ACROSS JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...AND EXIT E ACROSS QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD FILL SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY OVER STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N
CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 200849
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH HEADS SLOWLY
EAST WITH THE 500 MB LOW NOT MOVING VERY MUCH AT ALL.
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS. TRICKY
FORECAST COMING UP WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO CONVECTION
BEING HARD TO DETERMINE AND THIS OF COURSE WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. THE MORE SUN THAT WE SEE...THE WARMER THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AND THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES HAVE A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER BEING THE BIG QUESTION. THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE SOME
LIMITED SUNSHINE AND ENDED UP WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THAT AREA IS FURTHER FROM
THE STRONG FORCING AND HAS SOME DRIER AIR AWAY FROM THE SFC WARM
FRONT. DID GRADUALLY BRING HIGH POPS OVER THE CWA TODAY AS SYSTEM
DRAWS CLOSER AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR TONIGHT AS THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE AN MCS/MCC IN THE AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. DID NOT HAVE ANY TIME TO LOOK AT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...BUT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
LOOKED REASONABLE. ALL DEPENDS ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SEEN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THAT IS THE QUESTION THAT CANNOT BE ANSWERED
AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE MAIN SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER NE SD THROUGH SRN MN INTO
CNTRL WI. SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH SFC
TROUGH/FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONTINUED MODERATE 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH LIKELY POPS
CONTINUE...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF
PCPN AREAS THAT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE WEAKER SHORTWAVES. MUCAPE
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY SUPPORT SCT/ISOLD
TSRA. HOWEVER...WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE RISK FOR STONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BEGINS TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN RESULTING IN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND INTENSITY.
THU...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER AS NW
FLOW NRN STREAM FLOW TAKES OVER AND A SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM NRN ONTARIO. BREEZY NORTH TO NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRI-SAT...WITH CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN
GREAT LAKES BTWN THE TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS...HIGH PRES AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -2C TO 2C EARLY FRIDAY...PER GFS/ECMWF...SLOWLY MODIFY TO
AROUND 6C SATURDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 60 SOUTH ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S SATURDAY.
SUN...THE 00Z ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEFS. THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WAA AND MOISTURE
INFLOW RETURNS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN LARGE DIFFERENCES AND LARGE
ECMWF CHANGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
PATTERN DETAILS AND PCPN CHANCES IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
CHALLENGING FCST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WITH RADAR
SHOWING PLENTY OF PCPN UPSTREAM...EXPECT SHRA/OCNL TSRA AT KIWD
OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN VFR/MVFR. AFTER MID
MORNING...PCPN FCST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BEST TIME FRAME.
GENERALLY FAVORED VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DOWNSLOPING ESE/SE WIND. AT
KCMX...UPSLOPE E FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD SUGGESTS PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT AS OBS HAVE SHOWN...THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY
AT TIMES. EXPECT OCNL SHRA. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD ALONG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MAY
BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT THE
HIGHEST OBSERVING PLATFORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A FEW GUSTS
OF 30-35KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST SITES ABOUT 10KTS
LOWER THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER. HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF AROUND
2-5SM VIS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. EXPECT FOG
TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY /FOR MAINLY S LAKE SUPERIOR/.
EXPECT A RIDGE OVER N MANITOBA TO SLIDE ACROSS JAMES BAY
TONIGHT...AND EXIT E ACROSS QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...A LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD FILL SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY OVER STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY EXIT E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS N
CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
000
FXUS63 KMQT 200522
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES DOMINATING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SETUP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS...WHILE RIDGING IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PUTS THE AREA UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MAIN
REASONS THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN
ROTATING NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LEADING TO
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION
THAT WILL BE INFLUENCING THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH TH
ROUGH NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MN. THIS IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THE LOW LOCATED IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA.
CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE AND ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
KICKED OFF THE SHOWERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW EARLIER
TODAY HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH AND EXPECT THAT TO SLOWLY CONTINUE AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A POCKET OF
LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR UNDER THIS RIDGE HAS LIMITED THE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS ONLY INDICATES ML
CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-250 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ENHANCE HEATING...THINK THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN
TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MN...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE INITIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION FOR THE AREA. BEST
INSTABILITY...1K-2.5K J/KG OF MLCAPE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MN...SW WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS ALSO
WHERE THE 850MB JET HAS INTENSIFIED. WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THAT AREA NOW...STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED OFF THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE EXPECTED STORM MOTION FROM THE STORMS
CURRENTLY IN MN /TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST/...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO MISS
THE LAND CWA AND JUST SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
ALSO...WOULD EXPECT THE INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AS THEY HEAD NNE DUE
TO THE DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...MOVING INTO 250-500
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. TO GET RAIN INTO THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NEED
TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THE STORM MOTION TO PULL THEM OVER THE WESTERN CWA. EXPECT THAT TO
HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS
TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE WEST AND DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE
EAST. WITH THE LIMITED AND TALL/SKINNY INSTABILITY...WOULD THINK
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THERE COULD BE HAIL FROM
ANY STRONGER STORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
MONDAY MORNING CONTINUES THE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CONVECTION...AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND THE UPPER JET FOCUSES IN WISCONSIN AND UPPER
MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOWING THE 850MB WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS MID DAY. THESE TWO FEATURES...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER JET FOCUSING NORTHEAT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD
TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. HAVE SHOWN A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS
FOR THE EXPECTED TIME OF THE PASSAGE. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
SHARP GRADIENT TO THE MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND VALUES INCREASING TOWARDS
1500 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDER IN THE MORNING...THE GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WHEN THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURS. AT THE SAME TIME...POCKET OF DRIER AIR AT
850-700MB WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOME PORTION OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE 850MB WARM FRONT MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS OVER THE SOUTH HALF AND WILL GO
WILL LOWER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...SO WON/T MAKE A SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF THE POPS AND KEEP
THEM IN THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORY.
LAST ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND HOW
FAR EAST IT SPREADS...ALONG WITH COMING ON SHORE TONIGHT. HAVEN/T
SEEM MUCH FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM SHIP OBS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE...BUT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS INDICATED LOW STRATUS OR
FOG JUST NORTHWEST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION AREAS/WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND THEN TRY TO
SPREAD IT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION
INCREASES TO THE EAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND HAVE
DELAYED THE EASTWARD EXTENT SOME WHAT WITH A LATER ARRIVAL TO THE
RAIN.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE THE MAIN SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER NE SD THROUGH SRN MN INTO
CNTRL WI. SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH SFC
TROUGH/FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONTINUED MODERATE 700-300 MB
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH LIKELY POPS
CONTINUE...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF
PCPN AREAS THAT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE WEAKER SHORTWAVES. MUCAPE
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY SUPPORT SCT/ISOLD
TSRA. HOWEVER...WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE RISK FOR STONGER
STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FINALLY BEGINS TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN RESULTING IN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING PCPN CHANCES AND INTENSITY.
THU...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER AS NW
FLOW NRN STREAM FLOW TAKES OVER AND A SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM NRN ONTARIO. BREEZY NORTH TO NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FRI-SAT...WITH CONFLUENT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN
GREAT LAKES BTWN THE TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS...HIGH PRES AND COOL DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. 850 MB
TEMPS FROM -2C TO 2C EARLY FRIDAY...PER GFS/ECMWF...SLOWLY MODIFY TO
AROUND 6C SATURDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 60 SOUTH ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S SATURDAY.
SUN...THE 00Z ECMWF WAS FASTER WITH THE TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEFS. THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WAA AND MOISTURE
INFLOW RETURNS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN LARGE DIFFERENCES AND LARGE
ECMWF CHANGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
PATTERN DETAILS AND PCPN CHANCES IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
CHALLENGING FCST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WITH RADAR
SHOWING PLENTY OF PCPN UPSTREAM...EXPECT SHRA/OCNL TSRA AT KIWD
OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN VFR/MVFR. AFTER MID
MORNING...PCPN FCST IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES...DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BEST TIME FRAME.
GENERALLY FAVORED VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A DOWNSLOPING ESE/SE WIND. AT
KCMX...UPSLOPE E FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD SUGGESTS PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS...BUT AS OBS HAVE SHOWN...THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY
AT TIMES. EXPECT OCNL SHRA. AT KSAW...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD ALONG WITH OCNL -SHRA. MAY
BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FOCUS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO
HOLD WINDS IN CHECK TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY FROM 20-25KTS...BUT
A FEW HIGHER PLATFORMS COULD SEE GUSTS TOWARDS 30KTS OR EVEN 35KTS.
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST ON TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE
15-25KT RANGE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.
WITH THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE COOL LAKE SUPERIOR
WATERS...EXPECT FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS EASTWARD SPREAD IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN...AS IT DEPENDS ON WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES OVER THE EAST TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. ONCE THE FOG SETS IN...IT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
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