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000
FXUS64 KMRX 301120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR FOG AT TRI SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY...RETURNING TO VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ELSEWHERE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL SITS JUST OFF TO OUR NW AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTENING STRIKE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT KEEPING IN
VCTS AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...MORE SO AT CHA. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR FOG AT TRI SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY...RETURNING TO VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ELSEWHERE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL SITS JUST OFF TO OUR NW AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTENING STRIKE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT KEEPING IN
VCTS AT ANY TERMINAL. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...MORE SO AT CHA. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300656
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK COLD FRONT STILL JUST OFF TO
OUR NW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO WHILE
NOT QUITE AS HOT AND STICKY AS YESTERDAY STILL PLAN ON APPARENT
TEMPS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THUS LEADING TO DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE SUPERBLEND MOS POPS ACTUALLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT LOWER NOW
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...I NUDGED POPS DOWN AND KEPT AS
MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE FROM OUR 29/12Z FORECAST GRIDS. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW...AS I SEE NO REASON TO GO NEAR CLIMO POPS...UNLESS THE WEAK E-W
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO SW VA AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...30/00Z MOS MAX TEMPS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIRMASS. TWEAKED THE MAXES UP A BIT IN LINE WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SUPERBLEND MAXES/MINS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE USUAL
ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH
DAY/NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  69  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  65  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  62  86  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300656
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK COLD FRONT STILL JUST OFF TO
OUR NW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO WHILE
NOT QUITE AS HOT AND STICKY AS YESTERDAY STILL PLAN ON APPARENT
TEMPS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THUS LEADING TO DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE SUPERBLEND MOS POPS ACTUALLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT LOWER NOW
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...I NUDGED POPS DOWN AND KEPT AS
MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE FROM OUR 29/12Z FORECAST GRIDS. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NOW...AS I SEE NO REASON TO GO NEAR CLIMO POPS...UNLESS THE WEAK E-W
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO SW VA AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...30/00Z MOS MAX TEMPS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIRMASS. TWEAKED THE MAXES UP A BIT IN LINE WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE SUPERBLEND MAXES/MINS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE USUAL
ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH
DAY/NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  69  92  67 /  30  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  65  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  65  89  64 /  30   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  62  86  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO OUR NW BUT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. MODELS STILL HINT AT ADDITIONAL
ISO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE VCTS IN AT TRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
STILL A QUESTION ABOUT CLOUD COVER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI...WILL
LEAVE MVFR FOR NOW. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
926 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL DRAW CLOSER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO OUR NORTHWEST IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS...DEW POINTS AND SKY IN THE DATABASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 292322
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...SOME CONVECTION CLOSE ENOUGH TO CHA TO INCLUDE VCTS
THERE BRIEFLY TO START PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
DURING THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BE NORTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT TRI FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT TRI...BUT WILL GO WITH MVFR VIS IN FOG AT TRI FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 292322
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...SOME CONVECTION CLOSE ENOUGH TO CHA TO INCLUDE VCTS
THERE BRIEFLY TO START PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN
DURING THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BE NORTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT TRI FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT TRI...BUT WILL GO WITH MVFR VIS IN FOG AT TRI FOR
SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 291841
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER
90S IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105
DEGREES ARE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FIRST ALONG THE PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO THE VALLEY. HOWEVER...ATTM...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DOES SEEM
TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SO THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.

BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES WEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY BEING BETWEEN
06-15Z...BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND MOVES
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FORECAST
ON THURSDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT...TEMPS MAY
ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY AS
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BACK OFF BY SEVERAL DEGREES RIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LIFTED IN THE
PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORT WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGHS
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  74  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291841
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER
90S IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105
DEGREES ARE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY.
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FIRST ALONG THE PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO THE VALLEY. HOWEVER...ATTM...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DOES SEEM
TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SO THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.

BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES WEST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS
SEEM TO SHOW THE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY BEING BETWEEN
06-15Z...BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND MOVES
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH THE FORECAST
ON THURSDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT...TEMPS MAY
ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO LOWER HUMIDITY AS
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BACK OFF BY SEVERAL DEGREES RIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE LIFTED IN THE
PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORT WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGHS
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  93  69  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  74  91  66  88 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  91  65  88 /  30  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  87  62  86 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291710 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A VCTS POSSIBLE AT EACH SITE THROUGH 03Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER...WITH SOME CLEARING OCCURRING.
HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KTRI LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291710 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A VCTS POSSIBLE AT EACH SITE THROUGH 03Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER...WITH SOME CLEARING OCCURRING.
HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KTRI LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291409 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1009 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AS MORNING FOG HAS
QUICKLY DISSIPATED...AND ONLY A FEW REMNANT PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER
REMAIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE I-65 CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE TN AND ALABAMA...AND THOSE SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. LATER ON
HOWEVER... ORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG
TO LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT IN GENERAL AM
EXPECTING MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN
THREATS /ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS/. ONCE AGAIN...ACTIVITY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND INITIALLY FAVOR THE PLATEAU AND
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE VALLEY BY THE EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             94  75  92  71 /  30  30  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  93  73  89  69 /  30  30  40  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       93  74  90  67 /  30  30  40  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              91  70  88  63 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291409 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1009 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AS MORNING FOG HAS
QUICKLY DISSIPATED...AND ONLY A FEW REMNANT PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER
REMAIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE I-65 CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE TN AND ALABAMA...AND THOSE SHOULD
REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. LATER ON
HOWEVER... ORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG
TO LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT IN GENERAL AM
EXPECTING MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN
THREATS /ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS/. ONCE AGAIN...ACTIVITY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND INITIALLY FAVOR THE PLATEAU AND
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE VALLEY BY THE EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             94  75  92  71 /  30  30  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  93  73  89  69 /  30  30  40  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       93  74  90  67 /  30  30  40  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              91  70  88  63 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291117
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
717 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. NONE OF
OUR TERMINALS HAVE SEEN THIS LOWER VSBY FOG THOUGH. ALSO...TRI
HASN`T COME DOWN IN VSBY OR CIGS AS ANTICIPATED. WILL STILL LEAVE A
TEMPO 3SM IN AT TRI AS THEY COULD STILL COME DOWN SOME OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ISO/SCT STORMS STILL SET TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS NETN AND SWVA SO WILL LEAVE VCTS IN
AT TRI. TYS AND CHA COULD SEE A VCTS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291117
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
717 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. NONE OF
OUR TERMINALS HAVE SEEN THIS LOWER VSBY FOG THOUGH. ALSO...TRI
HASN`T COME DOWN IN VSBY OR CIGS AS ANTICIPATED. WILL STILL LEAVE A
TEMPO 3SM IN AT TRI AS THEY COULD STILL COME DOWN SOME OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ISO/SCT STORMS STILL SET TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS NETN AND SWVA SO WILL LEAVE VCTS IN
AT TRI. TYS AND CHA COULD SEE A VCTS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291117
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
717 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. NONE OF
OUR TERMINALS HAVE SEEN THIS LOWER VSBY FOG THOUGH. ALSO...TRI
HASN`T COME DOWN IN VSBY OR CIGS AS ANTICIPATED. WILL STILL LEAVE A
TEMPO 3SM IN AT TRI AS THEY COULD STILL COME DOWN SOME OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ISO/SCT STORMS STILL SET TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. BEST
COVERAGE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS NETN AND SWVA SO WILL LEAVE VCTS IN
AT TRI. TYS AND CHA COULD SEE A VCTS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290711
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
CALM WINDS. FOG WILL CLEAR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. PLEASE USE
CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS VISIBILITY MAY
SUDDENLY DECREASE.

TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW US TO BE IN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ISO/SCT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE DUE TO CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE WILL BE PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR SO THEY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100. THOUGH THESE VALUES DON`T MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA PERSONS SHOULD
STILL EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE PERFORMING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVATES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY WAIN IN COVERAGE THE
FURTHER WE GET INTO THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 7OS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS REALLY NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH NAM
ZIPPING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT POPS FROM THE NAM MOS FOR
THURSDAY. I HAVE OPTED FOR NOW TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SIMILAR
GFS/ECMWF TIMING...WHICH SUPPORTS OUR PREVIOUS POP/WX GRIDS FOR
THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF FRONTAL
TIMING WOULD ALLOW THE DROPPING OF POPS BY OR BEFORE 04Z FRIDAY.
TRENDED OUR GRIDS THAT WAY AND ALLOWED POPS TO DROP FROM THE NW BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ERN MOST
COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

WE THEN SEE NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHED AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SAME TIME LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SE
STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MADE THE SUPERBLEND 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY QUITE
SUSPECT...SINCE SURFACE WINDS STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO THE
RIDGE. DAYTIME HEATING ALONE LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO CREATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. GFSX AND ECMWX POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WERE WELL BELOW CLIMO...SO I KEPT OUR GRIDS DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS FOR THURSDAY MAXES GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE GFS MOS
TEMPS LOOKED VERY GOOD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SUPERBLEND
MINS/MAXES WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...
WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE IN MINS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             94  75  92  71 /  30  30  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  89  69 /  30  30  40  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       92  74  90  67 /  30  30  40  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              90  70  88  63 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290711
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
CALM WINDS. FOG WILL CLEAR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. PLEASE USE
CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS VISIBILITY MAY
SUDDENLY DECREASE.

TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW US TO BE IN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ISO/SCT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE DUE TO CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE WILL BE PULSE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR SO THEY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100. THOUGH THESE VALUES DON`T MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA PERSONS SHOULD
STILL EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE PERFORMING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVATES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY WAIN IN COVERAGE THE
FURTHER WE GET INTO THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 7OS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS REALLY NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH NAM
ZIPPING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT POPS FROM THE NAM MOS FOR
THURSDAY. I HAVE OPTED FOR NOW TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SIMILAR
GFS/ECMWF TIMING...WHICH SUPPORTS OUR PREVIOUS POP/WX GRIDS FOR
THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF FRONTAL
TIMING WOULD ALLOW THE DROPPING OF POPS BY OR BEFORE 04Z FRIDAY.
TRENDED OUR GRIDS THAT WAY AND ALLOWED POPS TO DROP FROM THE NW BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ERN MOST
COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

WE THEN SEE NW FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHED AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SAME TIME LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE SE
STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MADE THE SUPERBLEND 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY QUITE
SUSPECT...SINCE SURFACE WINDS STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO THE
RIDGE. DAYTIME HEATING ALONE LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO CREATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. GFSX AND ECMWX POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WERE WELL BELOW CLIMO...SO I KEPT OUR GRIDS DRY UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN GFS FOR THURSDAY MAXES GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE GFS MOS
TEMPS LOOKED VERY GOOD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SUPERBLEND
MINS/MAXES WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...
WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE IN MINS IN THE
MTNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             94  75  92  71 /  30  30  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  89  69 /  30  30  40  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       92  74  90  67 /  30  30  40  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              90  70  88  63 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...DUE TO PRECIP YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A CURRENT LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...ALL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AT LEAST SEE
MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TRI GOING DOWN TO TEMPO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS. ALSO...LIFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY AT TRI DURING THE TEMPO IFR
FOG. FOG CLEARS BY AROUND 13Z WITH ISO/SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE
ACROSS NETN AND SWVA SO WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT TRI FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE BY AROUND 21Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...DUE TO PRECIP YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A CURRENT LOW
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD...ALL SITES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AT LEAST SEE
MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TRI GOING DOWN TO TEMPO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS. ALSO...LIFR CIGS LOOK LIKELY AT TRI DURING THE TEMPO IFR
FOG. FOG CLEARS BY AROUND 13Z WITH ISO/SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE
ACROSS NETN AND SWVA SO WILL KEEP VCTS IN AT TRI FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS STORMS BEGIN TO FIRE BY AROUND 21Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290235 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATING. WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM AND NO FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...WILL
REMOVE THE MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA SEEING SOME RAIN TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE COMMON
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ITS ADDITION INTO THE FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK
BASED ON OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290235 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATING. WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM AND NO FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...WILL
REMOVE THE MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA SEEING SOME RAIN TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE COMMON
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ITS ADDITION INTO THE FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK
BASED ON OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290235 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATING. WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM AND NO FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...WILL
REMOVE THE MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA SEEING SOME RAIN TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE COMMON
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ITS ADDITION INTO THE FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK
BASED ON OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290235 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN NORTHERN AREAS...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATING. WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM AND NO FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...WILL
REMOVE THE MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA SEEING SOME RAIN TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE COMMON
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ITS ADDITION INTO THE FORECAST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK
BASED ON OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING TYS FROM THE NW...SO WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND MVFR VIS THERE TO OPEN THE TAF. CHA AND TRI
APPEAR UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL SITES
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS APPEAR
LIKELY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. AS USUAL...TRI IS
LIKELY TO GO LOWEST...BUT AS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...LOW CIGS IN THE
LIFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH MVFR TO OCCASSIONALLY IFR
VIS. WILL HAVE MVFR VIS AT TYS AND CHA. TOMORROW...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEAR TRI...SO WILL INLUDE VCTS THERE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 282313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING TYS FROM THE NW...SO WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO FOR TSRA AND MVFR VIS THERE TO OPEN THE TAF. CHA AND TRI
APPEAR UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL SITES
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS APPEAR
LIKELY. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. AS USUAL...TRI IS
LIKELY TO GO LOWEST...BUT AS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...LOW CIGS IN THE
LIFR RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH MVFR TO OCCASSIONALLY IFR
VIS. WILL HAVE MVFR VIS AT TYS AND CHA. TOMORROW...THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEAR TRI...SO WILL INLUDE VCTS THERE LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281848
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
BETTER COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MORE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TODAY, BUT AGAIN, VERY LITTLE SHEAR
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO SURVIVE FOR LONGER
THAN AN HOUR OR SO. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO STICK TOGETHER FOR A
WHILE, THEN A VERY ISOLATED BRIEF WIND GUST UNDERNEATH IT COULD BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE BEST COVERAGE
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE. FOG IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE PATCHY IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN
THIS EVENING.

WE SET UP FOR A SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW, BUT THIS TIME I BELIEVE
THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW, THIS
COMBINED WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME PLACES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NM/W TX WILL RETROGRADE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER
IN A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO A MENTION
OF CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS BECOMING DRY BY EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. LOOK FOR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES AFTER THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  75  92 /  20  20  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  92  73  89 /  20  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  92  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  89  69  86 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281848
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
BETTER COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MORE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TODAY, BUT AGAIN, VERY LITTLE SHEAR
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO SURVIVE FOR LONGER
THAN AN HOUR OR SO. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO STICK TOGETHER FOR A
WHILE, THEN A VERY ISOLATED BRIEF WIND GUST UNDERNEATH IT COULD BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE BEST COVERAGE
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE. FOG IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE PATCHY IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN
THIS EVENING.

WE SET UP FOR A SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW, BUT THIS TIME I BELIEVE
THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW, THIS
COMBINED WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME PLACES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NM/W TX WILL RETROGRADE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER
IN A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO A MENTION
OF CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS BECOMING DRY BY EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. LOOK FOR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES AFTER THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  75  92 /  20  20  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  92  73  89 /  20  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  92  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              70  89  69  86 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ALL
SITES IN VCTS THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOG ALSO LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWER COVERAGE. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/OVERNIGHT FOG...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
FORECASTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE ALL
SITES IN VCTS THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOG ALSO LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SHOWER COVERAGE. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/OVERNIGHT FOG...LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
FORECASTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS STAYED BETWEEN TYS AND TRI TAF
SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT TRI TO AROUND 13Z OR SO. CHA
AND TYS COULD GET BRIEF VISBY REDUCTION TO 5SM-6SM FROM LIGHT FOG.
KEPT OUR BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
PASSING SHOWER OR STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR...COULD
BE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLT AT
TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS STAYED BETWEEN TYS AND TRI TAF
SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT TRI TO AROUND 13Z OR SO. CHA
AND TYS COULD GET BRIEF VISBY REDUCTION TO 5SM-6SM FROM LIGHT FOG.
KEPT OUR BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
PASSING SHOWER OR STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR...COULD
BE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLT AT
TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS STAYED BETWEEN TYS AND TRI TAF
SITES...BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT TRI TO AROUND 13Z OR SO. CHA
AND TYS COULD GET BRIEF VISBY REDUCTION TO 5SM-6SM FROM LIGHT FOG.
KEPT OUR BEST ESTIMATE ON TIMING TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
PASSING SHOWER OR STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR...COULD
BE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLT AT
TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SO FAR. THAT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH APPEARS THAT A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINGERED OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE MODELS HAVE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS PEGGED FOR LATER TODAY...BUT THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS LOOKED
REASONABLE. NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE PRE 12Z GRIDS
AND OPTED FOR AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL BUT FAR WRN COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...07Z TEMPS SO MILD THAT I WAS HESITANT TO UNDERCUT THE
GFS MOS MAXES BY VERY MUCH. PROBABLY SEE MAXES TODAY VERY CLOSE TO
THOSE ON MONDAY. CHOSE CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS MURPHY
NC.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON IN THE
LONG TERM. RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL THUS ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FLATTENING OF RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT
SWINGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...GIVING US OUR
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH POPS ARE ONLY HIGH END CHANCE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S CENTRAL VALLEY AND UPPER 9OS NEAR 100 ON BOTH WEDNESDAY.
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 105 OR GREATER BUT DO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED WHILE DOING ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EASTERN
U.S. BEING IN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             95  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  90  73 /  30  20  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  73  91  74 /  30  20  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  69  87  70 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SO FAR. THAT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH APPEARS THAT A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINGERED OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE MODELS HAVE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS PEGGED FOR LATER TODAY...BUT THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS LOOKED
REASONABLE. NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE PRE 12Z GRIDS
AND OPTED FOR AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL BUT FAR WRN COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...07Z TEMPS SO MILD THAT I WAS HESITANT TO UNDERCUT THE
GFS MOS MAXES BY VERY MUCH. PROBABLY SEE MAXES TODAY VERY CLOSE TO
THOSE ON MONDAY. CHOSE CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS MURPHY
NC.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON IN THE
LONG TERM. RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL THUS ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FLATTENING OF RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT
SWINGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...GIVING US OUR
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH POPS ARE ONLY HIGH END CHANCE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S CENTRAL VALLEY AND UPPER 9OS NEAR 100 ON BOTH WEDNESDAY.
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 105 OR GREATER BUT DO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED WHILE DOING ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EASTERN
U.S. BEING IN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             95  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  90  73 /  30  20  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  73  91  74 /  30  20  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  69  87  70 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SO FAR. THAT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH APPEARS THAT A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINGERED OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE MODELS HAVE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS PEGGED FOR LATER TODAY...BUT THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS LOOKED
REASONABLE. NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE PRE 12Z GRIDS
AND OPTED FOR AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL BUT FAR WRN COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...07Z TEMPS SO MILD THAT I WAS HESITANT TO UNDERCUT THE
GFS MOS MAXES BY VERY MUCH. PROBABLY SEE MAXES TODAY VERY CLOSE TO
THOSE ON MONDAY. CHOSE CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS MURPHY
NC.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON IN THE
LONG TERM. RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL THUS ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FLATTENING OF RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT
SWINGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...GIVING US OUR
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH POPS ARE ONLY HIGH END CHANCE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S CENTRAL VALLEY AND UPPER 9OS NEAR 100 ON BOTH WEDNESDAY.
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 105 OR GREATER BUT DO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED WHILE DOING ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EASTERN
U.S. BEING IN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             95  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  90  73 /  30  20  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  73  91  74 /  30  20  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  69  87  70 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SO FAR. THAT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH APPEARS THAT A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINGERED OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE MODELS HAVE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS PEGGED FOR LATER TODAY...BUT THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS LOOKED
REASONABLE. NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE PRE 12Z GRIDS
AND OPTED FOR AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL BUT FAR WRN COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...07Z TEMPS SO MILD THAT I WAS HESITANT TO UNDERCUT THE
GFS MOS MAXES BY VERY MUCH. PROBABLY SEE MAXES TODAY VERY CLOSE TO
THOSE ON MONDAY. CHOSE CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS MURPHY
NC.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON IN THE
LONG TERM. RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL THUS ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FLATTENING OF RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT
SWINGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...GIVING US OUR
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH POPS ARE ONLY HIGH END CHANCE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S CENTRAL VALLEY AND UPPER 9OS NEAR 100 ON BOTH WEDNESDAY.
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 105 OR GREATER BUT DO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED WHILE DOING ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EASTERN
U.S. BEING IN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             95  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  90  73 /  30  20  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  73  91  74 /  30  20  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  69  87  70 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280540
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NRN
PLATEAU COUNTIES...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT ESE. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
BE WEAKENING AND IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THUS...NO MENTION OF TSRA OR VCTS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT TRI ONCE THE BROKEN
MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK CLEARS OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
OVERALL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280540
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NRN
PLATEAU COUNTIES...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT ESE. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
BE WEAKENING AND IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THUS...NO MENTION OF TSRA OR VCTS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT TRI ONCE THE BROKEN
MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK CLEARS OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
OVERALL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280540
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NRN
PLATEAU COUNTIES...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT ESE. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO
BE WEAKENING AND IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THUS...NO MENTION OF TSRA OR VCTS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECTING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AT TRI ONCE THE BROKEN
MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK CLEARS OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
OVERALL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING CONVECTION IS ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION.  A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE
AREA.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED
RAINFALL.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE PRE PERIOD AND EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING CONVECTION IS ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION.  A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE
AREA.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED
RAINFALL.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE PRE PERIOD AND EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING CONVECTION IS ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION.  A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE
AREA.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED
RAINFALL.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE PRE PERIOD AND EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING CONVECTION IS ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION.  A STRAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY LINGER OVER THE
AREA.  OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED
RAINFALL.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE PRE PERIOD AND EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 272306
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
706 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
RAIN WAS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AT TRI...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
THERE IS HIGH OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS WITH
A TEMPO FOR LIFR. VLIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY...BUT WILL NOT
GO THAT LOW YET. TYS AND CHA SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS THEY HAVE NOT
RECEIVED RAINFALL AND DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 272306
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
706 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
RAIN WAS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AT TRI...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
THERE IS HIGH OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS WITH
A TEMPO FOR LIFR. VLIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY...BUT WILL NOT
GO THAT LOW YET. TYS AND CHA SHOULD REMAIN VFR AS THEY HAVE NOT
RECEIVED RAINFALL AND DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271857
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS UPON US. COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE
EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING. SO HAVE GENERALLY
CONTINUED WITH POP CHANCES THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. CAPE LOOKS DECENT, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT
AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED. SO
AM AGAIN EXPECTING TYPICAL POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE FOG, BUT I THINK IT WILL
BE CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS AND PLACES THAT GET SHOWERS OVER
THEM THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS SHAPING UP FOR TOMORROW
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THERE WILL BE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
LINGERING SCATTERED-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ANY WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KICK
OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS WITH MORE COVERAGE
THAN TUESDAY/S STORMS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE HEAT INDICES FOR WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING WHEN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES. THESE HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREES OR GREATER/.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND
LEAVE THE EASTERN U.S. IN A BROAD TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MORE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BRINGING RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271857
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS UPON US. COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE
EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING. SO HAVE GENERALLY
CONTINUED WITH POP CHANCES THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. CAPE LOOKS DECENT, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT
AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED. SO
AM AGAIN EXPECTING TYPICAL POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE FOG, BUT I THINK IT WILL
BE CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS AND PLACES THAT GET SHOWERS OVER
THEM THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS SHAPING UP FOR TOMORROW
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THERE WILL BE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
LINGERING SCATTERED-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ANY WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KICK
OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS WITH MORE COVERAGE
THAN TUESDAY/S STORMS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE HEAT INDICES FOR WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING WHEN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES. THESE HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREES OR GREATER/.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND
LEAVE THE EASTERN U.S. IN A BROAD TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MORE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BRINGING RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271857
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS UPON US. COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE
EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING. SO HAVE GENERALLY
CONTINUED WITH POP CHANCES THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. CAPE LOOKS DECENT, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT
AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED. SO
AM AGAIN EXPECTING TYPICAL POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE FOG, BUT I THINK IT WILL
BE CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS AND PLACES THAT GET SHOWERS OVER
THEM THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS SHAPING UP FOR TOMORROW
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THERE WILL BE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
LINGERING SCATTERED-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ANY WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KICK
OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS WITH MORE COVERAGE
THAN TUESDAY/S STORMS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE HEAT INDICES FOR WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING WHEN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES. THESE HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREES OR GREATER/.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND
LEAVE THE EASTERN U.S. IN A BROAD TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MORE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BRINGING RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271857
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS UPON US. COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE
EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING. SO HAVE GENERALLY
CONTINUED WITH POP CHANCES THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. CAPE LOOKS DECENT, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT
AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED. SO
AM AGAIN EXPECTING TYPICAL POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE FOG, BUT I THINK IT WILL
BE CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS AND PLACES THAT GET SHOWERS OVER
THEM THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS SHAPING UP FOR TOMORROW
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THERE WILL BE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
LINGERING SCATTERED-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ANY WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KICK
OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS WITH MORE COVERAGE
THAN TUESDAY/S STORMS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE HEAT INDICES FOR WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING WHEN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDEX VALUES. THESE HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREES OR GREATER/.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND
LEAVE THE EASTERN U.S. IN A BROAD TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MORE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BRINGING RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  95  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  91  73  89 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  87  69  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271744
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA/TENNESSEE BORDER, SO HAVE GONE
WITH VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT KTRI. COULD SEE STORMS MOVE NEAR
KTYS/KCHA, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TIMING OR IF IT WILL EVEN
HAPPEN TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT,
BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME FOG WHERE
STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271744
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA/TENNESSEE BORDER, SO HAVE GONE
WITH VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT KTRI. COULD SEE STORMS MOVE NEAR
KTYS/KCHA, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TIMING OR IF IT WILL EVEN
HAPPEN TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT,
BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME FOG WHERE
STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271744
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA/TENNESSEE BORDER, SO HAVE GONE
WITH VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT KTRI. COULD SEE STORMS MOVE NEAR
KTYS/KCHA, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TIMING OR IF IT WILL EVEN
HAPPEN TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT,
BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME FOG WHERE
STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271744
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA/TENNESSEE BORDER, SO HAVE GONE
WITH VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT KTRI. COULD SEE STORMS MOVE NEAR
KTYS/KCHA, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TIMING OR IF IT WILL EVEN
HAPPEN TO MENTION THEM IN THE TAFS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT,
BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME FOG WHERE
STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL UPDATE TAFS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





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