000
FXUS64 KMRX 231140
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
740 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...A LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE DAY AT TRI WHERE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME MVFR FOG AND SOME IFR CEILINGS AROUND HERE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR
AS THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT. CONVECTION DEVELOPS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBILITY OF GREATEST IMPACT
AT TRI BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME STORMS AROUND TYS SO USED
VICINITY THUNDER AT TYS WITH A PREVAILING CONVECTION GROUP AT TRI.
MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER RANGE MVFR CLOUDS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE AT TRI SO THIS MAY
IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS DURING THIS FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230742
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
342 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND SURFACE COLD TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND A PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AROUND 8 AM EDT.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RATCHET UP
A BIT AROUND MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL CAPES BUMPING UP
TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE HIGHER. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG GENERATING SOME HEALTHY GUSTS AND WITH FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND TEN TO ELEVEN THOUSAND FEET...SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
GRADUALLY DROP POPS BACK TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH
THE AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS MAX/MIN TEMP BLEND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AS UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS INTO THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRODUCING VERY WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. AGAIN...STILL EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 57 74 46 79 / 50 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 57 71 43 75 / 50 40 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 80 55 72 41 75 / 50 30 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 54 65 36 72 / 60 50 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230538
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...APPEARS LIKE MORE ACTION IN STORE FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS AGAIN TODAY AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE ROAMING EAST ACROSS THE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER VORT LOBE AND SURFACE FRONT ROTATE INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED AROUND 00-03Z TONIGHT AS
THE LIFTING FEATURES MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING FROM WEDNESDAY`S
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. AGAIN...THE LOWEST VSBY IN FOG MAY OCCUR AT
TRI WHERE LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230105
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
905 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...AIRMASS STABILIZING AT THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERS TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SPC WEB PAGE SHOWS BEST SHEAR OF
AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER OUR NRN PLATEAU NORTH INTO SE KY AND SW
VA...SO BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THOSE AREAS...WHERE I MAY
KEEP LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS MAY NEED MORE ADUSTING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED TEMPS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
ALREADY.
DAMAGE REPORTED IN HAWKINS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
SURVEYED THURSDAY BY NWS MORRISTOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 63 81 56 73 / 70 70 20 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 62 80 56 70 / 70 70 30 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 62 80 55 71 / 70 70 30 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 60 78 52 67 / 70 70 50 40 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 222335
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE TO TRACK N TO NE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS. AIRMASS SHOULD EBCOME LESS UNSTABLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND I WILL RE-EVALUATE THE THREAT OF TSRA AGAIN
PRIOR TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH EACH
PASSING TSRA. OVERALL...THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO
MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TO 21Z THURSDAY...THEN IMPROVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 63 81 56 73 / 70 70 20 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 62 80 56 70 / 70 70 30 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 62 80 55 71 / 70 70 30 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 60 78 52 67 / 70 70 50 40 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 221906
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION
OVER MIDDLE TN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS REVEAL A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BETWEEN 20 AND
40 KT...SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES)...SO THINK THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME STORMS.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASING AND LCL
HEIGHTS LOWERING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VA...SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING AND SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN
POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP UPPER
TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AIR
MASS NOT AS UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AHEAD
OF SECONDARY FRONT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS.
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO THE 40S
WITH UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HIGHER NE VALLEYS. FROST MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS THERE. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING EACH DAY. MOISTURE TO INCREASE BY
SUNDAY AS FLOW AROUND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BRINGS A FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGHEST DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 63 81 56 73 / 70 70 20 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 62 80 56 70 / 70 70 30 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 62 80 55 71 / 70 70 30 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 60 78 52 67 / 70 70 50 40 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG/TD
000
FXUS64 KMRX 221736
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE TN. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING THE
EXACT OCCURRENCE AT THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC. THUS...
WILL JUST MENTION VCTS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY EVENING. FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KTRI SINCE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THIS FOG.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 221355
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
955 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM LAST
NIGHT`S CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE TN. THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS VERY
HUMID THIS MORNING...WITH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS BOTH REVEALING A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DECENT MID LEVEL WIND FLOW BETWEEN 20 AND
40 KT...SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO INDICATE 0-1 KM HELICITY
VALUES INCREASING AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWERING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA...SO WILL PLAN TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO PLAN TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON (BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES).
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL UPDATE
THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY MORNING PRECIP WORDING...AND TO TWEAK
TEMPS A LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH THE THOUGHTS MENTIONED ABOVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 63 83 57 73 / 70 60 20 20 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 83 62 80 56 71 / 70 60 50 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 83 62 80 55 72 / 70 60 50 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 60 78 54 67 / 70 60 60 50 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DMG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 221146
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...SHORT CONVECTIVE LINES TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT DEVELOPMENT IS WIDELY SCATTERED SO USED A VICINITY
THUNDER CONCEPT AT THE TERMINALS. PERHAPS MORE WELL DEVELOPED
CONVECTION WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES INTO THE GREAT VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME VFR CEILINGS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220740
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
340 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MID AMERICA. WITH SOME HEATING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FEATURE...CURRENTLY BUILDING NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...MODELS PROG RATHER DECENT INSTABILITY WITH
CAPES BUMPING UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR HIGHER AND LIFTED INDICES AS
HIGH AS -8 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE
BUT STILL AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH VALUES
APPROACHING 40 KTS ON THE PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MID DAY ON THE
PLATEAU AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HELICITY VALUES NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE REDUCED. MODELS
SHOW WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA SO WENT
WITH LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH PERCENTAGES DROPPING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TRIED TO STAY CLOSE A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS DURING
THE SHORT TERM WITH MAV MAXES A BIT TOO WARM MOST AREAS. STAYED
CLOSER TO THE MILDER MIN GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR-MASS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
DURING THE AFTENOON. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDE LIKELY POPS
NORTH TO LOW-CHANCE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF COLD-AIR STRATU-CU AND SOME OROGRAPHIC
LIFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT-ENDING FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUD-COVER AS WELL SCATTERED SHOWS. BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR-MASS
WILL BE RULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK..THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY ON WHERE AND
EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS..BUT SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO AGREE WITH
SOME HIGHER POPS.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 62 83 57 73 / 70 60 20 20 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 63 80 56 71 / 70 60 50 30 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 84 62 80 55 72 / 70 60 50 30 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 61 78 54 67 / 70 60 60 50 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220558
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
158 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE AVIATION WILL BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION
TODAY IN THE GREAT VALLEY AS MODELS INDICATE TWO OR THREE SHORTER
WAVELENGTH FEATURES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION IN VERY SLOW WEATHER PATTERN GOVERNED BY MID AMERICAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALIGNED ON THE WESTERN
PLATEAU DOESN`T APPEAR TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AVIATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE
AFFECTED AROUND MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LIFT WITH INITIAL
WAVE DRIVING CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HEADS EAST. DECENT AMOUNT OF JUICE AVAILABLE IN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS SO JUST WENT AHEAD AND USED A
PREVAILING CONVECTIVE GROUP FOR THE MAIN EVENT AT THE TERMINALS.
APPLIED SOME POST EVENT VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE LATER EVENING
PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE BEST BET FOR SOME MVFR/IFR FOG WILL BE AT TRI
WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT STORMS MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATION.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220214
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...MCS HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED NE OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT MODEL RUNS PERTAINING TO CONVECTION. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER MID TN WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 84 63 81 57 / 20 60 50 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 84 62 80 56 / 20 60 50 40 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 84 62 81 56 / 20 60 50 40 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 83 61 79 55 / 30 50 50 50 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SON
000
FXUS64 KMRX 212327
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...STRONG CONVECTION MOVING NE FROM TYS AND WILL AFFECT TRI
WITH STRONG WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT ANDE BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP FOG AT BAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY TO NEAR 10 KTS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SON
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211857
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS
MIDDLE TN WILL MOVE INTO THE MRX CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BEHIND THIS LINE...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY.
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD A LARGE BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM...MOIST AND WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOS
POPS TRENDING LIKELY NOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS
LOOKING ON TRACK. SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY PLUS DAYTIME HEATING...SO
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SW VA/NE TN AREAS
EARLY FRIDAY.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WARM FRONT AND NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. KEPT SUNDAY DRY LEADING INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INTRODUCED TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER FAVORED AREAS OF SW VA AND NE TN...ALTHO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPS...BOTH 21/00Z AND 21/12Z GFSX MOS TEMPS ARE TRENDING
COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY. NUDGED TEMPS
DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS...ESPECIALLY MINS UNTIL SOME
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 84 63 81 57 / 20 60 50 30 20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 65 84 62 80 56 / 30 60 50 40 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 65 84 62 81 56 / 30 60 50 40 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 83 61 79 55 / 40 50 50 50 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB/TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211725
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LINE OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE MRX CWA. WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING
STORMS WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA AND PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR TRI.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211600
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1200 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE MRX
CWA. WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WILL UPDATE ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE
MORNING FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 65 85 63 84 / 30 30 60 50 30
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 87 65 84 63 81 / 30 30 50 50 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 65 84 62 80 / 30 20 50 50 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 59 84 59 77 / 20 20 60 50 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211125
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG..ESPECIALLY AT TRI..WHERE VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z..THEN NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES. EVEN THOUGH
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN...CONVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL
LIKELY RE-DEVELOP OVER THE PLATEAU..THEN MOVE INTO EAST TENNESSEE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.
FOR TONIGHT...FOG RE-DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED..ESPECIALLY AT TRI..
WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TRI.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 210752
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
352 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EARLY MORNING DENSE
FOG ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
CURRENTLY COVERAGE IS SCATTERED...PER SATELLITE/OBS...BUT WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
A LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE. LATEST
NAM SUGGEST THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
ACROSS TENNESSEE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE PLATEAU BY 16-18Z. AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG..SO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES.
A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
INTO THE DOWNDRAFTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS A CONCERN. ALSO...WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AND HAIL CAPE VALUES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINAL
LARGE HAIL. HAVE INCLUDED WITHIN THE HWO.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
FOR WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING FRONT AND LIKELY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CONVECTION. MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT FAVOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER..BUT
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MID-WEST..WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS AS IT SHIFTS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 00Z SATURDAY. BUMPED
POPS UP SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT BUILDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT
TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S. LONG WAVE. STAYED WITH CONVECTION ON THURSDAY BUT WITH
INCREASING STABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY USED SHOWER WORDING.
PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRY ADVECTION AND A NICE EXPANSIVE
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GFS/CMC HINT AT THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THEREFORE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM ON
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 65 85 63 84 / 30 30 60 50 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 65 84 63 81 / 30 30 50 50 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 87 65 84 62 80 / 30 20 50 50 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 59 84 59 77 / 20 20 60 50 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 210521
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPING FOG..ESPECIALLY AT TRI..WHERE
VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z..THEN NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT CHA AND TYS. EVEN THOUGH
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN...SEVERE CONVECTION NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WILL SEND OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CHA/TYS TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-23Z. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TODAY BETWEEN 8-14KTS..EXCEPT
IN/NEAR STORMS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 210115 AAB
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
915 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS MOST EVERYTHING
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. GIVEN THE LATEST OBS/TRENDS...OPTED TO
REMOVE THE LOW-END MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
MOUNTAIN ZONES AS ALL CONVECTION HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
IN NC AND IS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM /ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL FOG-PRONE AREAS/
SEEMS REASONABLE AS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THIS AFTER 08Z. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLEARER
CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD RESULT SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 90 67 83 63 / 10 20 20 70 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 88 67 83 64 / 10 20 20 60 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 88 65 83 62 / 10 20 20 70 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 86 60 82 60 / 10 30 20 60 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP
000
FXUS64 KMRX 202315 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE VIS DROP TO MVFR LEVELS
FROM SOME LIGHT FOG. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
AMP
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201856
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS...THE BULK OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. ON
TUESDAY...WARM...MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE REGION WILL
WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH ONLY A FEW
MOVING INTO THE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WETTEST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM STILL LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NUDGED POPS UP TO LIKELY BY NOON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND CARRIED 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED WORDING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS NEEDED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ALSO RISE. 12Z GFSX MOS POPS ARE TRENDING
A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE...BUT FOR NOW I KEPT IN LOW
TOKEN POPS BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SPOTTY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NW BY MONDAY...WITH 12Z GFS MODEL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SPREADING
CONVECTION SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES RETURN BY MONDAY
WHICH SUPPORTS AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SPOTTY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
12Z GFSX MOS TEMPS HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPS FROM THURSDAY THRU MONDAY. I STAYED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
00Z GFSX MOS TEMPS AND ADJACENT NWS GRIDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 90 67 83 63 / 10 20 20 70 40
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 64 88 67 83 64 / 10 20 20 60 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 64 88 65 83 62 / 10 20 20 70 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 86 60 82 60 / 10 30 20 60 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB/TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201730
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND EXPECTED TO SEE DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NOT EXPECTED TO EFFECT AREA TAFS. OVERNIGHT...FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201432
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1030 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...WARM ...MOIST AIR
IN PLACE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RESULT WILL BE DIURNAL CONVECTION
CENTERED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRAY STORM MAY BECOME STRONG...
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 66 90 67 85 / 10 10 20 20 60
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 85 65 88 66 83 / 20 10 20 20 60
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 65 87 66 83 / 20 20 20 20 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 57 85 60 82 / 40 20 30 20 50
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
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