Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMRX 242322
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WITH RAIN OCCURRING AT TYS AND TRI WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT...FOG APPEARS LIKELY
AT THESE SITES LATER TONIGHT...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z. WILL GO WHOLE
HOG AND PUT VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TRI...WITH LIFR AT TYS. CHA IS LESS
CERTAIN AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN RAIN THERE TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE MVFR
FOG IN THE TAF. FOG SHOULD LIFT AND RETURN ALL SITES TO VFR BY 15Z.
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242322
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WITH RAIN OCCURRING AT TYS AND TRI WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT...FOG APPEARS LIKELY
AT THESE SITES LATER TONIGHT...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z. WILL GO WHOLE
HOG AND PUT VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TRI...WITH LIFR AT TYS. CHA IS LESS
CERTAIN AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN RAIN THERE TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE MVFR
FOG IN THE TAF. FOG SHOULD LIFT AND RETURN ALL SITES TO VFR BY 15Z.
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241839
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD ENJOY A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY BUT THE WEATHER
BECOMES UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. RISING MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POPS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER WILL PUSH
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HELD
ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE SOME TRAILING MOISTURE AND
ENERGY BUILDS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. WAS ABLE TO KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY AS COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE
MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES DEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
HAD TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  88  67  91 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  86  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  86  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  85  59  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/TH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241839
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD ENJOY A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY BUT THE WEATHER
BECOMES UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. RISING MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POPS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER WILL PUSH
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HELD
ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE SOME TRAILING MOISTURE AND
ENERGY BUILDS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. WAS ABLE TO KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY AS COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE
MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES DEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
HAD TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  88  67  91 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  86  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  86  64  89 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  85  59  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/TH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...SO
INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS IN VICINITY AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FOG IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KTYS AND KTRI FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241341
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
941 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. NOT MUCH TO UPDATE AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  88  66 /  40  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  64  86  65 /  50  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  86  63 /  40  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  85  58 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241341
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
941 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. NOT MUCH TO UPDATE AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  88  66 /  40  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  64  86  65 /  50  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  86  63 /  40  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  58  85  58 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241131
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR VSBY AT TRI NEXT HOUR OR SO AND LOWER CEILING AT
TYS POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS SO TEMPOS AT THESE SITES. OTHERWISE
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF EAST TN EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SITES MOSTLY
VFR TODAY BUT COULD DROP TEMPORARILY WITH A SHOWER THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EAST TN. LEFT OUT
VCSH REMARKS EXCEPT AT CHA. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241131
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR VSBY AT TRI NEXT HOUR OR SO AND LOWER CEILING AT
TYS POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS SO TEMPOS AT THESE SITES. OTHERWISE
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF EAST TN EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SITES MOSTLY
VFR TODAY BUT COULD DROP TEMPORARILY WITH A SHOWER THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EAST TN. LEFT OUT
VCSH REMARKS EXCEPT AT CHA. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240739
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVED
INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENED. AREA RADARS ONLY SHOWING
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER
MIDDLE TN INTO EASTERN KY. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER NE TN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OVERALL MOSTLY LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH BUT IN THUNDERSTORMS AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AN INCH OR MORE.

SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT TO END SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS REACHING ONLY UPPER
70S SW VA TO LOWER TO MID 80S TN AND SW NC THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO FORECAST GFS/NAM BLEND WITH UPPER 50S NE TN AND
SW VA TO LOWER AND MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAIR WEATHER EXPECT FOR THE
WEEKEND. ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INT THE SOUTH. UPPER
HIGH RIDGES INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE WEST. UPPER JET PUSHES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY. UPPER JET
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA AND THROUGH THE
SMOKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD LIFT AND PRE FRONTAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF ARE IN
QUESTION WHILE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL BECOME SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  66  88  66 /  40  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  64  86  65 /  50  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  63  86  63 /  40  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  58  85  58 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240510
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT
OF KY INTO EAST TN AND SW VA HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT TRI AND TYS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS. CHA WILL STAY VFR BUT COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY WITH A SHOWER OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240510
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT
OF KY INTO EAST TN AND SW VA HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE...VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT TRI AND TYS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS. CHA WILL STAY VFR BUT COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY WITH A SHOWER OVERNIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240208 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS TO OUR WEST HAVE HAD A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. HRRR SHOWS DECREASING INTENSITY AS WELL...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE IN NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. SO POPS WILL BE
LOWERED A BIT WITH THE UPDATE. TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING
WITH THE JET WILL BE TO OUR EAST. WHILE THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND
HRRR SHOW SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COVERAGE APPEARS SCATTERED AT BEST...AND WILL LOWER POPS
DOWN TO A CHANCE. SILGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MADE BASED ON LATEST OBS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240208 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS TO OUR WEST HAVE HAD A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. HRRR SHOWS DECREASING INTENSITY AS WELL...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE IN NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. SO POPS WILL BE
LOWERED A BIT WITH THE UPDATE. TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING
WITH THE JET WILL BE TO OUR EAST. WHILE THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AND
HRRR SHOW SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COVERAGE APPEARS SCATTERED AT BEST...AND WILL LOWER POPS
DOWN TO A CHANCE. SILGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MADE BASED ON LATEST OBS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 232326
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
726 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KY AND MIDDLE TN WILL BE MOVING E-SE
TOWARD THE AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TYS AND TRI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING AT ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD...AND CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 232326
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
726 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KY AND MIDDLE TN WILL BE MOVING E-SE
TOWARD THE AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TYS AND TRI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING AT ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD...AND CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231903
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION WORKED
SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY DISSIPATED...WHILE NEW ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND WRN NC. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. NOT SURE IF THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL GET 60 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT SOME
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD BET FOR SW VA AND NRN PARTS OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. KEPT FAR SRN VALLEY AND SW NC POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS WEATHER AND POP GRIDS FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKED ON TRACK...
SO NO CHANGES MADE. HARD TO FIND ANY MODEL THAT DOES NOT MOVE THE
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WENT QUITE
CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT...BUT TRENDED MUCH CLOSER TO
THE COOLER NAM MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. THIS WAS ALSO IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN E TN AND SW VA WITH THE EXITING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE OUTSTANDING DAYS
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE
UPPER 50S IN SOME AREAS AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT STICK AROUND LONG
ENOUGH. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER BET BEING IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OF TN BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPTIATION CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  86  66  87 /  50  50  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  84  64  85 /  60  60  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  83  63  85 /  70  50  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  81  58  84 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231903
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION WORKED
SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY DISSIPATED...WHILE NEW ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND WRN NC. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. NOT SURE IF THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL GET 60 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT SOME
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD BET FOR SW VA AND NRN PARTS OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. KEPT FAR SRN VALLEY AND SW NC POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS WEATHER AND POP GRIDS FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKED ON TRACK...
SO NO CHANGES MADE. HARD TO FIND ANY MODEL THAT DOES NOT MOVE THE
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WENT QUITE
CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT...BUT TRENDED MUCH CLOSER TO
THE COOLER NAM MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. THIS WAS ALSO IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN E TN AND SW VA WITH THE EXITING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE OUTSTANDING DAYS
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE
UPPER 50S IN SOME AREAS AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT STICK AROUND LONG
ENOUGH. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER BET BEING IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OF TN BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPTIATION CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  86  66  87 /  50  50  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  84  64  85 /  60  60  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  83  63  85 /  70  50  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  81  58  84 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...GREATEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY AND THIS EVENING SHOULD
BE NEAR TRI...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
ONGOING CONVECTION POSES A THREAT AT TRI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
LEAST. VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AT TYS AND CHA GIVEN THE LATEST
RADAR PICS...AND ALSO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER TSRA
WERE TO PASS ACROSS ONE OF OUR TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TRI.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WARRANTS HIGH POPS. MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...GREATEST RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY AND THIS EVENING SHOULD
BE NEAR TRI...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH.
ONGOING CONVECTION POSES A THREAT AT TRI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
LEAST. VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT AT TYS AND CHA GIVEN THE LATEST
RADAR PICS...AND ALSO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER TSRA
WERE TO PASS ACROSS ONE OF OUR TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT TRI.

THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WARRANTS HIGH POPS. MENTIONED VCTS FOR NOW
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY MAINLY IN THE
LAKEWAY AREA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY SE INTO COCKE...
BLOUNT AND SEVIER COUNTIES. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THIS AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ANOTHER LARGER AREA ACROSS WRN NC. 12Z OHX/RNK
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AHEAD OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FORECAST POPS A LITTLE LOW THIS MORNING...BUT THE INCREASING POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK PER LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...TO SEE
IF LOW END OF LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED IN SOME AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  70  86  67 /  50  50  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  69  84  65 /  50  60  60  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  83  64 /  50  70  50  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  81  60 /  50  70  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY MAINLY IN THE
LAKEWAY AREA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY SE INTO COCKE...
BLOUNT AND SEVIER COUNTIES. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS THIS AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ANOTHER LARGER AREA ACROSS WRN NC. 12Z OHX/RNK
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AHEAD OF THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FORECAST POPS A LITTLE LOW THIS MORNING...BUT THE INCREASING POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK PER LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...TO SEE
IF LOW END OF LIKELY POPS MAY BE JUSTIFIED IN SOME AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  70  86  67 /  50  50  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  69  84  65 /  50  60  60  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  83  64 /  50  70  50  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  81  60 /  50  70  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231110
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
710 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. VCTS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
POSSIBLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231110
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
710 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. VCTS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
POSSIBLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 230753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
353 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MOISTURE FROM WEAK UPPER
LOW TO THE SW OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH TODAY AS
BROAD NORTHEAST US TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING LARGE AREA OF
STORMS FROM NORTHERN IL EAST INTO LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING IN KNOX AND GRAINGER COUNTIES. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS THURSDAY MORNING DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE COME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN
TODAY. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO
CURRENT FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL
AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WHEN THE
HIGH MOVES EAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. A
CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY...PRODUCING
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA
TUESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA PROVIDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  70  86  67 /  50  50  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  69  84  65 /  50  60  60  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  83  64 /  50  70  50  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  81  60 /  50  70  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
353 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MOISTURE FROM WEAK UPPER
LOW TO THE SW OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH TODAY AS
BROAD NORTHEAST US TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING LARGE AREA OF
STORMS FROM NORTHERN IL EAST INTO LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING IN KNOX AND GRAINGER COUNTIES. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS THURSDAY MORNING DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE COME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN
TODAY. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO
CURRENT FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL
AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WHEN THE
HIGH MOVES EAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. A
CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY...PRODUCING
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA
TUESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA PROVIDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  70  86  67 /  50  50  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  69  84  65 /  50  60  60  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  83  64 /  50  70  50  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  81  60 /  50  70  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 230550
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TRI AND TYS BETWEEN 09-12Z
DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AWAY
FROM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH 24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES FROM LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 230550
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TRI AND TYS BETWEEN 09-12Z
DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AWAY
FROM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH 24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES FROM LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230112 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
912 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OTHERWISE
DRY. CURRENT FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD.

DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  86 /  20  50  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  70  84 /  10  50  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  88  70  84 /  20  50  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  66  81 /  10  50  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 230112 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
912 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISSIPATING. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OTHERWISE
DRY. CURRENT FORECAST MINS LOOK GOOD.

DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  86 /  20  50  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  70  84 /  10  50  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  88  70  84 /  20  50  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  66  81 /  10  50  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 222330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...BESIDES MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI AND TYS BETWEEN 09-12Z
DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AWAY
FROM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH 24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 222330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...BESIDES MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI AND TYS BETWEEN 09-12Z
DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AWAY
FROM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH 24 HOURS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 221911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE FLA COAST IS ACTUALLY GAINING MORE INFLUENCE OVER OUR
NORTHERN SECTIONS.  THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
QUIET OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR REGION.  WILL HAVE LOWER POPS
TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS LOOKED DIURNAL WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTION.  STILL GOING WITH DECENT POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS FRONT GETS CLOSER WOULD EXPECT INCREASING
ORGANIZATION WITH WIND STRUCTURE AS WELL AS THE START OF SOME
COOLING ALOFT.  GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS VERY GOOD OVERALL FOR THESE
TWO PERIODS...ONLY WENT ABOUT 1 DEG COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY MAX TEMP.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST QG
FORCING COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON SOME PRECIP LINGERING
IN EASTERN SECTIONS THU MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BY THE EVENING. WILL REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND A NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
BETWEEN 80 AND 85 IN MOST SPOTS. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
WHEN THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT BELOW THE
GFS MOS NUMBERS...WHICH SEEM WAY TOO WARM.

A CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
SUNDAY...PRODUCING FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH
THE GENERAL PATTERN...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY...WITH YET
ANOTHER COOL AND DRY HIGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA PROVIDING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  86 /  20  50  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  70  84 /  10  50  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  88  70  84 /  10  50  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  66  81 /  10  50  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM/DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 221911
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE FLA COAST IS ACTUALLY GAINING MORE INFLUENCE OVER OUR
NORTHERN SECTIONS.  THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
QUIET OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR REGION.  WILL HAVE LOWER POPS
TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS LOOKED DIURNAL WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTION.  STILL GOING WITH DECENT POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS FRONT GETS CLOSER WOULD EXPECT INCREASING
ORGANIZATION WITH WIND STRUCTURE AS WELL AS THE START OF SOME
COOLING ALOFT.  GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS VERY GOOD OVERALL FOR THESE
TWO PERIODS...ONLY WENT ABOUT 1 DEG COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY MAX TEMP.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST QG
FORCING COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WILL HAVE LIKELY
POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON SOME PRECIP LINGERING
IN EASTERN SECTIONS THU MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BY THE EVENING. WILL REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND A NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
BETWEEN 80 AND 85 IN MOST SPOTS. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
WHEN THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT BELOW THE
GFS MOS NUMBERS...WHICH SEEM WAY TOO WARM.

A CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
SUNDAY...PRODUCING FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH
THE GENERAL PATTERN...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY...WITH YET
ANOTHER COOL AND DRY HIGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA PROVIDING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  86 /  20  50  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  70  84 /  10  50  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  88  70  84 /  10  50  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  66  81 /  10  50  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM/DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221741
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA STILL HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
AREA. THE REGION OVER KCHA SHOWS STRONG DIFUENCE BETWEEN THE LOW TO
OUR SW AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SE. WOULD THINK THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
NORTH THE DIFLUENCE DROPS OFF QUICKLY TOWARD KTYS AND KTRI...SO
MORE OF AN ISSUE OF WHAT STORMS CAN COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
CURRENT EASTERLY STEERING WINDS. AIR MASS CONTINUES VERY MOIST
OVERALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50" AND 2.00".

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 221741
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA STILL HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
AREA. THE REGION OVER KCHA SHOWS STRONG DIFUENCE BETWEEN THE LOW TO
OUR SW AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SE. WOULD THINK THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
NORTH THE DIFLUENCE DROPS OFF QUICKLY TOWARD KTYS AND KTRI...SO
MORE OF AN ISSUE OF WHAT STORMS CAN COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
CURRENT EASTERLY STEERING WINDS. AIR MASS CONTINUES VERY MOIST
OVERALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50" AND 2.00".

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221422
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
BUMPED UP HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING HAS STARTED
OFF WARMER. THINK THAT MAX TEMP IS OK AS IS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOW DOWN OFF AS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  71  89  71 /  60  30  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  69  87  69 /  30  20  50  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  87  69 /  30  10  50  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  66  86  64 /  30  10  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 221422
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
BUMPED UP HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING HAS STARTED
OFF WARMER. THINK THAT MAX TEMP IS OK AS IS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOW DOWN OFF AS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  71  89  71 /  60  30  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  69  87  69 /  30  20  50  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  87  69 /  30  10  50  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  66  86  64 /  30  10  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE. WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MAINLY SE. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO VCNTY OF CHA AND TYS TODAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE. WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MAINLY SE. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO VCNTY OF CHA AND TYS TODAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 220809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER SE AL WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT TO THE SW. CYCLONIC LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL A EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF MRX CWA TODAY. LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2.00 ACROSS TN/GA BORDER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THESE
STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
KNOXVILLE. ELSEWHERE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL WANE TONIGHT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW. NEAR NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY WARM OVERNIGHT READINGS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN STATES WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER NE
PART OF COUNTRY. ALSO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
THERE. COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. GFS AND NAM DIFFER WITH AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT FRONT PRODUCES AND TIMING. NAM DRIER THAN GFS.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WANT TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EARLIER.
WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. MODELS PUSH FRONT THROUGH
DURING DAY THURSDAY WITH DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOLER AND
DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AIR MASS FROM CANADA
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. SATURDAY FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYS
AND NIGHTS THE OTHER DAYS OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  71  89  71 /  60  30  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  69  87  69 /  30  20  50  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  87  69 /  30  10  50  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  66  86  64 /  30  10  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 220809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER SE AL WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT TO THE SW. CYCLONIC LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL A EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF MRX CWA TODAY. LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2.00 ACROSS TN/GA BORDER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THESE
STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
KNOXVILLE. ELSEWHERE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL WANE TONIGHT WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW. NEAR NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY WARM OVERNIGHT READINGS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN STATES WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER NE
PART OF COUNTRY. ALSO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
THERE. COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. GFS AND NAM DIFFER WITH AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT FRONT PRODUCES AND TIMING. NAM DRIER THAN GFS.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WANT TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EARLIER.
WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAPERING OFF THURSDAY. MODELS PUSH FRONT THROUGH
DURING DAY THURSDAY WITH DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOLER AND
DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AIR MASS FROM CANADA
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. SATURDAY FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYS
AND NIGHTS THE OTHER DAYS OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  71  89  71 /  60  30  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  69  87  69 /  30  20  50  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  87  69 /  30  10  50  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  66  86  64 /  30  10  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 220528
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE. WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MAINLY SE. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT INTO VCNTY OF CHA AND TYS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities