Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMRX 270036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
836 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLATEAU AT
THIS TIME. HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN TO MAINLY CHANCE. LARGE COMPLEX
IN GA MOVING INTO SC AND NC HAS STOLE SOME OF THE ENERGY AND RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. DRIER AIR TO THE WEST HAS HELPED SKIES
CLEAR OVER WESTERN TN AND INTO NORTH AL AND MS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SO
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THERE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. NOT
THAT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE ANY THING SIGNIFICANT BUT KEPT CHANCE
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST
SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  50  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  50  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  50  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
836 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PLATEAU AT
THIS TIME. HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN TO MAINLY CHANCE. LARGE COMPLEX
IN GA MOVING INTO SC AND NC HAS STOLE SOME OF THE ENERGY AND RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. DRIER AIR TO THE WEST HAS HELPED SKIES
CLEAR OVER WESTERN TN AND INTO NORTH AL AND MS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SO
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THERE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. NOT
THAT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE ANY THING SIGNIFICANT BUT KEPT CHANCE
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST
SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  50  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  50  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  50  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DYING DOWN OVER EAST TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING TYS AND
MAY CONTINUE A COUPLE HOURS THERE...THUNDER NOT EXPECTED AT TYS.
COVERAGE OF ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FROM 08-14Z WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WEAK INSTABILITY...30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH COMBINE TO
CREATE A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
SEVERE...DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET
AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AFTER SUCH A
PROLONGED DRY PATTERN FOR MAY...THE MONTH WILL CERTAINLY END ON A
WET NOTE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...ENDING WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SE TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

HARD TO PICK AND CHOOSE WHEN NOT TO CARRY RAIN CHANCES FOR AN ENTIRE
24 HOURS WAS CHALLENGING...BUT MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DOES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. I STILL FAVOR MINIMUM
COVERAGE/LOWEST RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SUPPORT A DRIER PERIOD THEN...UNTIL THE DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH BY EARLY MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHILE MINS STAY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. SUPERBLEND OF MOS TEMPS
LOOKED GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  70  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  80  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  70  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  80  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WEAK INSTABILITY...30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH COMBINE TO
CREATE A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY
SEVERE...DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET
AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
AREA.  A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AFTER SUCH A
PROLONGED DRY PATTERN FOR MAY...THE MONTH WILL CERTAINLY END ON A
WET NOTE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...ENDING WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SE TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

HARD TO PICK AND CHOOSE WHEN NOT TO CARRY RAIN CHANCES FOR AN ENTIRE
24 HOURS WAS CHALLENGING...BUT MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DOES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. I STILL FAVOR MINIMUM
COVERAGE/LOWEST RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SUPPORT A DRIER PERIOD THEN...UNTIL THE DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH BY EARLY MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHILE MINS STAY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. SUPERBLEND OF MOS TEMPS
LOOKED GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  66  83 /  70  60  50  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  82  64  84 /  80  60  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  82  65  85 /  70  50  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  80  62  84 /  80  50  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MOVES
ACROSS A TAF SITE MAY GENERATE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  ONLY
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG DEVELOP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT MOVES
ACROSS A TAF SITE MAY GENERATE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  ONLY
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL FOG DEVELOP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261520
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1120 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE.  ALL HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261520
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1120 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED HIT OR MISS TYPE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
IS POSSIBLE.  ALL HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD LAYERS THIS MORNING AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURE RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. IN
SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS...MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 261132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
732 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD LAYERS THIS MORNING AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE FEATURE RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN INTO AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. IN
SUCH A MOIST AIR MASS...MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 260633
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260633
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260633
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260528
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER NICELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO MINUSCULE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FOG AT CHA. HOWEVER...THE AC
CEILINGS ARE KEEPING AIR TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE DEWPOINT. IT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME SHORT WAVE LIFT ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME
VICINITY SHRA AND SOME TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 260528
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
128 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING RATHER NICELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO MINUSCULE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FOG AT CHA. HOWEVER...THE AC
CEILINGS ARE KEEPING AIR TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE DEWPOINT. IT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SOME SHORT WAVE LIFT ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED SOME
VICINITY SHRA AND SOME TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260235
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLY ANTICIPATED. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
TO REFLECT THIS. THERE IS STILL A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTH OUT
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THAT WILL KEEP OUR SWNC COUNTIES PRETTY WET
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE TIME
BEING. ALSO TOOK OUT THUNDER EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC...UNTIL EARLY MORNING WHEN NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. ZONES OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260113
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
913 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK BUT MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
BETTER FINE TUNE THINGS. AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND IR IMAGERY. THIS COINCIDES WITH OUR LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THERE STILL MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT BUT THE STORMS SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE MOST PART.
TOOK OUT THUNDER ACROSS NETN AND SWVA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THEY
ARE FAIRLY STABLE...BUT LEFT THUNDER IN FOR EARLY MORNING WHEN OUR
NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE. ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS WERE TO MAINLY
RAISE AND LOWER POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
EXPECTED FUTURE TRENDS. UPDATE TO ZONES WILL BE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260113
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
913 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK BUT MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO
BETTER FINE TUNE THINGS. AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING PER LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND IR IMAGERY. THIS COINCIDES WITH OUR LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THERE STILL MAY BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT BUT THE STORMS SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE MOST PART.
TOOK OUT THUNDER ACROSS NETN AND SWVA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THEY
ARE FAIRLY STABLE...BUT LEFT THUNDER IN FOR EARLY MORNING WHEN OUR
NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE. ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS WERE TO MAINLY
RAISE AND LOWER POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
EXPECTED FUTURE TRENDS. UPDATE TO ZONES WILL BE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  60  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  60  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252338
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BRIEF
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. A FEW STORMS REMAIN NEAR CHA
BUT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO TYS
SHORTLY. MODELS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAKENING THE FURTHER WE GO
INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT TRI BECAUSE
OF LACK OF CERTAINTY OF COVERAGE BY THE TIME ACTIVITY ADVANCES THAT
FAR NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODELS DON`T SHOW CONVECTION ARRIVING AT TRI UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD SO WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252338
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BRIEF
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. A FEW STORMS REMAIN NEAR CHA
BUT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO TYS
SHORTLY. MODELS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAKENING THE FURTHER WE GO
INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT TRI BECAUSE
OF LACK OF CERTAINTY OF COVERAGE BY THE TIME ACTIVITY ADVANCES THAT
FAR NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODELS DON`T SHOW CONVECTION ARRIVING AT TRI UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD SO WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252338
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BRIEF
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. A FEW STORMS REMAIN NEAR CHA
BUT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO TYS
SHORTLY. MODELS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAKENING THE FURTHER WE GO
INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT TRI BECAUSE
OF LACK OF CERTAINTY OF COVERAGE BY THE TIME ACTIVITY ADVANCES THAT
FAR NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODELS DON`T SHOW CONVECTION ARRIVING AT TRI UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD SO WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252338
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BRIEF
MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS. A FEW STORMS REMAIN NEAR CHA
BUT SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO TYS
SHORTLY. MODELS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAKENING THE FURTHER WE GO
INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT TRI BECAUSE
OF LACK OF CERTAINTY OF COVERAGE BY THE TIME ACTIVITY ADVANCES THAT
FAR NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVE IN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MODELS DON`T SHOW CONVECTION ARRIVING AT TRI UNTIL AFTER
THIS PERIOD SO WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251903
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS
PLACED THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TN.  THE BAND IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
AND WILL EFFECT THE MRX CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  TONIGHT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ALONG THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION.  ON TUESDAY...A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND
MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.  A STRAY STORM MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECT FROM THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. I KEPT
CONTINUITY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
FOR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION AGAIN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWERING RAIN
CHANCES WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO CONVECTION. FORECAST GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL NEAR
MIDNIGHT...AND JUST A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST TRENDING WETTER WITH GFSX MOS POPS RUNNING HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW END OF LIKELY. RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY MONDAY YIELDS
HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME.

FOR TEMPS...A MOS BLEND CHOSEN FOR THE EARLY PERIODS THEN GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND MOS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  50  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  50  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251903
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS
PLACED THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TN.  THE BAND IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST
AND WILL EFFECT THE MRX CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  TONIGHT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ALONG THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION.  ON TUESDAY...A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND
MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.  A STRAY STORM MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECT FROM THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. I KEPT
CONTINUITY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
FOR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING.

BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION AGAIN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWERING RAIN
CHANCES WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO CONVECTION. FORECAST GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL NEAR
MIDNIGHT...AND JUST A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST TRENDING WETTER WITH GFSX MOS POPS RUNNING HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW END OF LIKELY. RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY MONDAY YIELDS
HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME.

FOR TEMPS...A MOS BLEND CHOSEN FOR THE EARLY PERIODS THEN GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND MOS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  82  67  81 /  60  70  60  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  82  65  80 /  50  70  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  80 /  50  70  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  80  63  81 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251729
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL USHER IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.  A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP AND IS CURRENTLY OVER
MIDDLE TN.  THIS BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN
TO EFFECT CHA THIS AFTERNOON....AND EVENTUALLY WORK INTO TYS AND
LATER TRI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH
...BE PREPARED FOR LOWERING CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW IN TAFS.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
THIS LATER ROUND OF PRECIP IS IN QUESTION AND WILL NOT BRING IT
IN PRIOR TO 18Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251729
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL USHER IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.  A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP AND IS CURRENTLY OVER
MIDDLE TN.  THIS BAND IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN
TO EFFECT CHA THIS AFTERNOON....AND EVENTUALLY WORK INTO TYS AND
LATER TRI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  AS THE BAND MOVES THROUGH
...BE PREPARED FOR LOWERING CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW IN TAFS.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF
THIS LATER ROUND OF PRECIP IS IN QUESTION AND WILL NOT BRING IT
IN PRIOR TO 18Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1145 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL USHER IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.  A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP AND IS CURRENTLY OVER
MIDDLE TN.  THIS BAND IN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN
TO EFFECT CHA THIS AFTERNOON....AND EVENTUALLY WORK INTO TYS AND
LATER TRI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO TRI UNTIL LATE...THE
NORTHEAST AREA AROUND TRI SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  67  83  67 /  60  50  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  66  82  64 /  50  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  67  82  66 /  50  40  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  64  83  63 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1145 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL USHER IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.  A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP AND IS CURRENTLY OVER
MIDDLE TN.  THIS BAND IN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN
TO EFFECT CHA THIS AFTERNOON....AND EVENTUALLY WORK INTO TYS AND
LATER TRI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO TRI UNTIL LATE...THE
NORTHEAST AREA AROUND TRI SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  67  83  67 /  60  50  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  66  82  64 /  50  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  67  82  66 /  50  40  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  64  83  63 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1145 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL USHER IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.  A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP AND IS CURRENTLY OVER
MIDDLE TN.  THIS BAND IN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN
TO EFFECT CHA THIS AFTERNOON....AND EVENTUALLY WORK INTO TYS AND
LATER TRI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO TRI UNTIL LATE...THE
NORTHEAST AREA AROUND TRI SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  67  83  67 /  60  50  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  66  82  64 /  50  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  67  82  66 /  50  40  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  64  83  63 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1145 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS WILL USHER IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.  A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP AND IS CURRENTLY OVER
MIDDLE TN.  THIS BAND IN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN
TO EFFECT CHA THIS AFTERNOON....AND EVENTUALLY WORK INTO TYS AND
LATER TRI LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO REACH INTO TRI UNTIL LATE...THE
NORTHEAST AREA AROUND TRI SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  67  83  67 /  60  50  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  66  82  64 /  50  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  67  82  66 /  50  40  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  64  83  63 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT CHA...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THAT
CATEGORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE RISING TO VFR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF TYS AND TRI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CHA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TYS AND TRI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT CHA...AND WILL
MENTION TSRA AS A TEMPO WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT TYS AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH NE MOVEMENT...WILL
MENTION VCTS THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS CONITNUES
OVERNIGHT...BUT TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PINPOINT AND WILL JUST
CARRY VCSH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT CHA...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THAT
CATEGORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE RISING TO VFR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF TYS AND TRI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CHA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TYS AND TRI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT CHA...AND WILL
MENTION TSRA AS A TEMPO WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT TYS AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH NE MOVEMENT...WILL
MENTION VCTS THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS CONITNUES
OVERNIGHT...BUT TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PINPOINT AND WILL JUST
CARRY VCSH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT CHA...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THAT
CATEGORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE RISING TO VFR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF TYS AND TRI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CHA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TYS AND TRI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT CHA...AND WILL
MENTION TSRA AS A TEMPO WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT TYS AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH NE MOVEMENT...WILL
MENTION VCTS THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS CONITNUES
OVERNIGHT...BUT TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PINPOINT AND WILL JUST
CARRY VCSH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT CHA...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THAT
CATEGORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE RISING TO VFR. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOW CIGS OUT OF TYS AND TRI. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CHA THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY TYS AND TRI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT CHA...AND WILL
MENTION TSRA AS A TEMPO WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
AT TYS AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH NE MOVEMENT...WILL
MENTION VCTS THERE. THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS CONITNUES
OVERNIGHT...BUT TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PINPOINT AND WILL JUST
CARRY VCSH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY. VORT MAX AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN WEST TN WILL TRACK
EAST...AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATING SOME
INSTABILITY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND TRACK N-NE. A DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP KEEP
NORTHERN SECTIONS MORE STABLE...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WARMEST
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA. TONIGHT...THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN
LINGERING BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WET DAYS WILL REALLY BEGIN FOR MOST PEOPLE ON TUESDAY AS
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PUMPS UP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS
POINT THE BETTER MIXTURE OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ARE SENT AROUND THE RIDGE AND PASS NEAR OUR AREA. AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IF A
PARTICULAR AREA GETS REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING MOVING THROUGH WILL START
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST, WHICH HAS LEAD TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BUT
AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  67  83  67 /  60  50  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  66  82  64 /  50  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  67  82  66 /  50  40  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  64  83  63 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY. VORT MAX AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN WEST TN WILL TRACK
EAST...AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATING SOME
INSTABILITY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND TRACK N-NE. A DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP KEEP
NORTHERN SECTIONS MORE STABLE...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WARMEST
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA. TONIGHT...THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN
LINGERING BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE WET DAYS WILL REALLY BEGIN FOR MOST PEOPLE ON TUESDAY AS
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PUMPS UP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS
POINT THE BETTER MIXTURE OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ARE SENT AROUND THE RIDGE AND PASS NEAR OUR AREA. AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IF A
PARTICULAR AREA GETS REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING MOVING THROUGH WILL START
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST, WHICH HAS LEAD TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BUT
AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  67  83  67 /  60  50  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  66  82  64 /  50  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  67  82  66 /  50  40  70  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  64  83  63 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250517
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FROMT THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND CHA FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
AFTER 19Z...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A TEMPO FOR THIS.
CHANCES ARE LOWER AT TYS...AND STILL LOWER AT TRI AS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK UP THE TN VALLEY AND INTO MORE
STABLE AIR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250517
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
117 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FROMT THE SOUTH...LOWER CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND CHA FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
AFTER 19Z...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A TEMPO FOR THIS.
CHANCES ARE LOWER AT TYS...AND STILL LOWER AT TRI AS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK UP THE TN VALLEY AND INTO MORE
STABLE AIR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
923 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL JUST MISS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...MARION...SEQUATCHIE...AND BLEDSOE. AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIES JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH OUR AREA BEING
ON THE STABLE SIDE OF THINGS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED
ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO A FEW HOURLY TEMPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  81  68  83 /  20  60  50  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  82  67  82 /  10  50  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  81  67  82 /  10  50  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  81  63  79 /   0  30  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
923 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL JUST MISS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES...MARION...SEQUATCHIE...AND BLEDSOE. AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIES JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH OUR AREA BEING
ON THE STABLE SIDE OF THINGS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED
ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO A FEW HOURLY TEMPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  81  68  83 /  20  60  50  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  82  67  82 /  10  50  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  81  67  82 /  10  50  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  81  63  79 /   0  30  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242325 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CHA COULD APPROACH MVFR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP NEAR CHA...THEN TYS...AND
EVENTUALLY TRI NEAR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. LEFT VCTS OUT AT TRI
SINCE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT REACH THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242325 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CHA COULD APPROACH MVFR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP NEAR CHA...THEN TYS...AND
EVENTUALLY TRI NEAR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. LEFT VCTS OUT AT TRI
SINCE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT REACH THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242325 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CHA COULD APPROACH MVFR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP NEAR CHA...THEN TYS...AND
EVENTUALLY TRI NEAR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. LEFT VCTS OUT AT TRI
SINCE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT REACH THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242325 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CHA COULD APPROACH MVFR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP NEAR CHA...THEN TYS...AND
EVENTUALLY TRI NEAR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. LEFT VCTS OUT AT TRI
SINCE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT REACH THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241918 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS AS OF 3
PM EDT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH SUSTAINED FAIR WEATHER WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER 06Z. THE FEATURE /AND ITS ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT
LLJ/...MAY HELP TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS ALABAMA
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

A MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FOR MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND QUICKLY MOVE
UP AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A GREATER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKER CAP...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN...AND THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS VALUES. HAVING
SAID THAT...CERTAINLY THINK A REASONABLE CHANCE EXISTS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH/IF ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT SOME
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. HOWEVER...WITH A SW FLOW AND SOME PEAKS OF SUN /ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST/...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S STILL SEEM
LIKELY/.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE A RATHER WET AND UNSETTLE EXTENDED OVERALL. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BROAD RIDGING
WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING FOR THE
IMPULSES AND THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIMES...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN FOR FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  81  68  83 /  20  60  50  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  82  67  82 /  10  50  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  81  67  82 /  10  50  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  81  63  79 /   0  30  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241905
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS AS OF 3
PM EDT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH SUSTAINED FAIR WEATHER WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER 06Z. THE FEATURE /AND ITS ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT
LLJ/...MAY HELP TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS ALABAMA
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

A MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FOR MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND QUICKLY MOVE
UP AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A GREATER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKER CAP...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN...AND THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS VALUES. HAVING
SAID THAT...CERTAINLY THINK A REASONABLE CHANCE EXISTS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH/IF ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT SOME
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. HOWEVER...WITH A SW FLOW AND SOME PEAKS OF SUN /ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST/...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S STILL SEEM
LIKELY/.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE A RATHER WET AND UNSETTLE EXTENDED OVERALL. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BROAD RIDGING
WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING FOR THE
IMPULSES AND THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIMES...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN FOR FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  68  84 /  20  40  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  84  67  82 /  10  30  30  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  83  67  82 /  10  30  30  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241905
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS AS OF 3
PM EDT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH SUSTAINED FAIR WEATHER WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER 06Z. THE FEATURE /AND ITS ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT
LLJ/...MAY HELP TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS ALABAMA
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK.

A MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FOR MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND QUICKLY MOVE
UP AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A GREATER
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKER CAP...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN...AND THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS VALUES. HAVING
SAID THAT...CERTAINLY THINK A REASONABLE CHANCE EXISTS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH/IF ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT SOME
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER. HOWEVER...WITH A SW FLOW AND SOME PEAKS OF SUN /ESPECIALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST/...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S STILL SEEM
LIKELY/.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE A RATHER WET AND UNSETTLE EXTENDED OVERALL. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BROAD RIDGING
WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING FOR THE
IMPULSES AND THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIMES...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN FOR FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  68  84 /  20  40  40  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  84  67  82 /  10  30  30  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  83  67  82 /  10  30  30  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241737 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. A VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCHA IN THE MORNING...AND AT
EACH TERMINAL BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT TIMING
THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF -SHRA/TSRA OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241737 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND CIGS LOWER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. A VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCHA IN THE MORNING...AND AT
EACH TERMINAL BY THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT TIMING
THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF -SHRA/TSRA OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241422 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS MORNING...
PROMOTING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH INCREASED
THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. MANY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 80S BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 80S READINGS COMMON ACROSS NE TENNESSEE AND
SW VIRGINIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  66  82  68 /   0  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  63  84  67 /   0  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  63  83  67 /   0  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  82  64 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241422 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS MORNING...
PROMOTING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH INCREASED
THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. MANY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 80S BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 80S READINGS COMMON ACROSS NE TENNESSEE AND
SW VIRGINIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  66  82  68 /   0  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  63  84  67 /   0  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  63  83  67 /   0  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  82  64 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS AT CHA MAY BE AROUND 10-12 KTS FROM THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS AT CHA MAY BE AROUND 10-12 KTS FROM THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN COMING AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240646
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A RIDGE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO  HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AL...MOVING IT NORTHWARD AND INTO
OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CREEP IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HELPS SHOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE RAIN ON THE RADAR THE ENTIRE WEEK, BUT
PINING DOWN WHEN THE BREAKS WILL BE IS A BIT DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY RAINY AND OVERCAST WEEK
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THOSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND, THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  82  68 /   0  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  63  84  67 /   0  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  63  83  67 /   0  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  82  64 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240646
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A RIDGE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO  HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AL...MOVING IT NORTHWARD AND INTO
OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CREEP IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HELPS SHOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE RAIN ON THE RADAR THE ENTIRE WEEK, BUT
PINING DOWN WHEN THE BREAKS WILL BE IS A BIT DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY RAINY AND OVERCAST WEEK
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THOSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND, THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  82  68 /   0  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  63  84  67 /   0  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  63  83  67 /   0  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  82  64 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240646
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A RIDGE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO  HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AL...MOVING IT NORTHWARD AND INTO
OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CREEP IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HELPS SHOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE RAIN ON THE RADAR THE ENTIRE WEEK, BUT
PINING DOWN WHEN THE BREAKS WILL BE IS A BIT DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY RAINY AND OVERCAST WEEK
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THOSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND, THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  82  68 /   0  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  63  84  67 /   0  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  63  83  67 /   0  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  82  64 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240646
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A RIDGE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO  HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AL...MOVING IT NORTHWARD AND INTO
OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CREEP IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND HELPS SHOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE RAIN ON THE RADAR THE ENTIRE WEEK, BUT
PINING DOWN WHEN THE BREAKS WILL BE IS A BIT DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.
THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY RAINY AND OVERCAST WEEK
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THOSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AT THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND, THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  82  68 /   0  20  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  63  84  67 /   0  10  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  63  83  67 /   0  10  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  55  82  64 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240518
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
A SE WIND AT CHA THAT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KTS IF THEY
DO OCCUR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240518
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
A SE WIND AT CHA THAT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KTS IF THEY
DO OCCUR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240518
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
A SE WIND AT CHA THAT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KTS IF THEY
DO OCCUR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240518
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE
A SE WIND AT CHA THAT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KTS IF THEY
DO OCCUR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities