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000
FXUS64 KMRX 261133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
632 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR CHA AND TYS THIS MORNING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIP NE TN AND SW VA AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...WHICH
WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TRI
IN THE AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS (POSSIBLY IFR AT
TRI) BY OR AFTER 27/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  35  47  28 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  33  46  26 /  40  30  30   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  34  45  27 /  30  40  20   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  31  42  23 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
632 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR CHA AND TYS THIS MORNING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIP NE TN AND SW VA AT LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...WHICH
WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TRI
IN THE AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS (POSSIBLY IFR AT
TRI) BY OR AFTER 27/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  35  47  28 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  33  46  26 /  40  30  30   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  34  45  27 /  30  40  20   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  31  42  23 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260831
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
331 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SMOKY MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE BEING MAINTAINED IN THE VALLEYS...COLDER AIR PRESENT
ALOFT IS PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS /MAINLY ABOVE 2500
FEET/. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED INDICATE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN ZONES /WHERE MEAN
WINDS MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCES SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT LOCALLY DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOUNTAINS THERE/. AS A RESULT...A WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSON...CARTER AND UNICOI
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE
HIGHEST AREAS/. ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MORE
COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS ELEVATED AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRY AIR
FILTERS IN AND THE SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE...BUT SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S. ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
BRING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THANKSGIVING DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/SMOKY
MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN THE
VALLEY...SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN
MOST AREAS.

ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL /AND THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY/...THINK A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE KTRI SOUNDING SHOWS
A PERIOD AROUND 12Z WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN
AND WASHINGTON TN COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AS WELL AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING THANKSGIVING MORNING
THERE. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY WANE BY THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
/RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT DRY END TO THE HOLIDAY/.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
LONG TERM GRIDS...BUT I KEPT CONTINUITY WITH A FEW HOURS OF FLURRIES
OR STRAY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES. AFTERWARDS...ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...THEN ACTUALLY SLIPPING OFF TO THE SE COASTAL AREAS
BY 06Z SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND
KEEPING MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A FEW DRY DAYS BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES
TO EASE SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE SUPER BLENDED GRIDS TOSSED IN LOW POPS AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT QPF FROM MODELS IS EXTREMELY LIGHT
MAINLY TO OUR NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. THUS...I OPTED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. NUDGED POPS UP TO
LOW CHANCE FOR MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE PASSING NEAR
OR ACROSS THE REGION.

MOS POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR TUESDAY...AND THE SUPER BLENDED POPS
WERE EVEN LOWER...SO STAYING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY FOR
NOW. ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH PROBABLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE APPRECIATED BY MOST FOLKS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  35  47  28 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  33  46  26 /  40  30  30   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  34  45  27 /  30  40  20   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  31  42  23 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260831
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
331 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...
SPREADING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SMOKY MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ARE BEING MAINTAINED IN THE VALLEYS...COLDER AIR PRESENT
ALOFT IS PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS /MAINLY ABOVE 2500
FEET/. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED INDICATE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN ZONES /WHERE MEAN
WINDS MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCES SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT LOCALLY DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOUNTAINS THERE/. AS A RESULT...A WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSON...CARTER AND UNICOI
MOUNTAIN AREAS AS TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE
HIGHEST AREAS/. ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MORE
COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS ELEVATED AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRY AIR
FILTERS IN AND THE SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER
FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE...BUT SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S. ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
BRING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THANKSGIVING DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/SMOKY
MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN THE
VALLEY...SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN
MOST AREAS.

ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL /AND THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY/...THINK A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE KTRI SOUNDING SHOWS
A PERIOD AROUND 12Z WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN
AND WASHINGTON TN COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AS WELL AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING THANKSGIVING MORNING
THERE. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY WANE BY THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
/RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT DRY END TO THE HOLIDAY/.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
LONG TERM GRIDS...BUT I KEPT CONTINUITY WITH A FEW HOURS OF FLURRIES
OR STRAY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES. AFTERWARDS...ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...THEN ACTUALLY SLIPPING OFF TO THE SE COASTAL AREAS
BY 06Z SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND
KEEPING MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A FEW DRY DAYS BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES
TO EASE SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE SUPER BLENDED GRIDS TOSSED IN LOW POPS AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT QPF FROM MODELS IS EXTREMELY LIGHT
MAINLY TO OUR NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. THUS...I OPTED TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. NUDGED POPS UP TO
LOW CHANCE FOR MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE PASSING NEAR
OR ACROSS THE REGION.

MOS POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR TUESDAY...AND THE SUPER BLENDED POPS
WERE EVEN LOWER...SO STAYING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY FOR
NOW. ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH PROBABLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE APPRECIATED BY MOST FOLKS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  35  47  28 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  33  46  26 /  40  30  30   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       50  34  45  27 /  30  40  20   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  31  42  23 /  90  50  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260548 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1248 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING AS -RA
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT KTRI...BUT SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT
KTYS/KCHA AS SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...SOME -RA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260548 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1248 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING AS -RA
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT KTRI...BUT SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT
KTYS/KCHA AS SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...SOME -RA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260301 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1001 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS THAN OTHER MODELS...BUT THE GFS AND RAP APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD HIGHER AMOUNTS. OBS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOW TEMPS IN THE MID
30S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 30...SO THESE AREAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND
FREEZING ONCE PRECIP BEGINS. IN THE VALLEY...THERE IS NOTHING IN
THE LATEST OBS OR MODEL GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL
LOW ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A WINTER STORMS WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSON...CARTER...AND
UNICOI MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
WILL MENTION PEAK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...WITH 3 TO 5 BEING MORE COMMON.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR JOHNSON-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260301 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1001 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS THAN OTHER MODELS...BUT THE GFS AND RAP APPEAR TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD HIGHER AMOUNTS. OBS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOW TEMPS IN THE MID
30S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 30...SO THESE AREAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND
FREEZING ONCE PRECIP BEGINS. IN THE VALLEY...THERE IS NOTHING IN
THE LATEST OBS OR MODEL GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL FALL
LOW ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

A WINTER STORMS WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR JOHNSON...CARTER...AND
UNICOI MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
WILL MENTION PEAK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...WITH 3 TO 5 BEING MORE COMMON.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR JOHNSON-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
608 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL PUT EAST
TN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING VERY DIFFERENT
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. CHA WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT TYS...RAIN SHOULD BE A BIT
HEAVIER AND PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. TRI IS
EXPECTED TO GO LOWEST WITH THE MOST RAIN...WITH IFR VIS AND MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SOME SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
IT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY TO MENTION AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
WARM. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AT
TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
608 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL PUT EAST
TN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING VERY DIFFERENT
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. CHA WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT TYS...RAIN SHOULD BE A BIT
HEAVIER AND PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. TRI IS
EXPECTED TO GO LOWEST WITH THE MOST RAIN...WITH IFR VIS AND MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SOME SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
IT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY TO MENTION AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
WARM. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AT
TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252010
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. JET DYNAMICS OVER OUR AREA LOOK
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM TO HELP PULL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY RAIN...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS SW VA...FOR SOME MAINLY HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WILL
MAKE MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS
DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...NAM WANTS TO
TRACK THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH JUST A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE RIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA BRINING IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF
RAIN/SNOWFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH OF THE CWA. AT
THIS POINT AM LIKING TO SHY AWAY FROM THE NAM SOLUTION AS RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN MUCH LOWER FOR THIS EVENT. NO MATTER WHICH
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE MOS GUIDANCE IS COMING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD INHIBIT SNOW GROWTH
IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS DAYTIME HIGHS RISE
INTO THE 30`S AND 40`S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAYBE GET INTO THE
UPPER 20`S. THE COLDEST TEMPS WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN WE GET CLEARING SKIES AND BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING. AT THIS
POINT THINK ONE OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS IN TEMPS/ACCUMULATIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURS STARTING
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IF SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER A LOCATION
TEMPS MIGHT COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER IF NO
SNOW FALLS GROUND TEMPS MIGHT STAY WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SNOW MIGHT ONLY STICK ON THE
GRASS AND LITTLE WILL ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. IF THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPIATION TYPE IS RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH OF IT EVAPORATES BEFORE TEMPS GET BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN, COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES OF WATER FREEZING ON THE
ROADS IF IT`S NOT EVAPORATED BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FIRST ROUND OF SNOW VERY CAREFULLY TO SEE WHAT THE IMPACTS
MIGHT BE ON THE SECOND ROUND. POTENTIALLY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO BLACK FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NOT DO ANYTHING AT THIS
TIME AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. I HAVE TRENDED UP A FEW DEGREES WITH TEMPS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE LITTLE TO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT
WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE FURTHER NORTH AND IN
ELEVATED LOCATIONS WHERE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS MORE LIKELY.

THE AREA CONTINUES TO WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO WHERE WE SHOULD
BE FLIRTING WITH 60`S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL SUGGESTING A FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH
WHAT TO DO WITH IT ONCE IT GETS HERE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS
THE TIME FRAME GETS CLOSER BUT AT THIS MOMENT MOST OF THE MODELS
THINK THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP SOMEWHERE AROUND KENTUCKY LEADING TO
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             39  51  37  49 /  60  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  47  34  46 /  80  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  49  35  46 /  70  30  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  45  32  42 / 100  80  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251728
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1228 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER...AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TRI...BUT
ELSEWHERE JUST EXPECT RAIN. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AT
CHA AND TYS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
TYS. WILL TAKE CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR FOR NOW AT TRI...AND MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 251728
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1228 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
EAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER...AND
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TRI...BUT
ELSEWHERE JUST EXPECT RAIN. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AT
CHA AND TYS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT
TYS. WILL TAKE CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR FOR NOW AT TRI...AND MAY
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 251559
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1059 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY`S FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LOTS OF SUN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
RIGHT NOW...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING THIS WAY AS THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH STARTS TO WORK NORTHWARD. WILL BE AN INTERESTING SCENARIO
FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND WARM ADVECTION
COMPETES WITH DYNAMIC COOLING FOR PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  37  52  35 /  10  40  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  36  48  33 /   0  60  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  36  49  33 /   0  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  35  44  29 /   0  80  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251559
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1059 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY`S FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LOTS OF SUN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
RIGHT NOW...BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING THIS WAY AS THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH STARTS TO WORK NORTHWARD. WILL BE AN INTERESTING SCENARIO
FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND WARM ADVECTION
COMPETES WITH DYNAMIC COOLING FOR PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  37  52  35 /  10  40  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  36  48  33 /   0  60  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  36  49  33 /   0  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  35  44  29 /   0  80  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 26/00Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE TORWARD THE
CAROLINAS WILL SEND RAIN OUR WAY OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS
LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT CHA AND TYS BY 26/06Z. PROBABLY
NOT AS FAST OF A DROP AT TRI...SO KEPT BORDERLINE VFR THERE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 26/00Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE TORWARD THE
CAROLINAS WILL SEND RAIN OUR WAY OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS
LIKELY TO DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT CHA AND TYS BY 26/06Z. PROBABLY
NOT AS FAST OF A DROP AT TRI...SO KEPT BORDERLINE VFR THERE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250858
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
358 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NE ALONG THE SC-NC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW
TRACKS NE AWAY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ALL QUITE CONSISTENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND LIKELY FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
FOR THE SMOKIES...NRN MTNS OF E TN AND MOST OF SW VA. THE BEST
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT 08Z
TO 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS RAPIDLY AND
THERE IS NO REAL FORM OF LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE MENTIONED AREAS IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT NWS GRIDS...GENERALLY AROUND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TOTALS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO PRODUCT
AND ALSO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY WHICH COULD BE DENSE ENOUGH
TO AFFECT MAX TEMPS...ALTHO I DID NUDGE HIGHS UP TO AT LEAST NEAR
THE COOLER NAM MOS MAXES. MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT AND CLOSE TO
GFS MOS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT COOLER WHERE SOME SNOW MAY
OCCUR.


.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A SECONDARY SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE PREVAILING WNW
FLOW...THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT...BUT RATHER A
SYNOPTIC LIFT EVENT FROM THE PASSING UPPER- TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY BE
THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST OF THE REGION /PARTICULARLY LATER
IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY/. STILL...A GOOD WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
PERHAPS INTO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THANKSGIVING
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON BLACK FRIDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY BROAD TROUGH
MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
ONLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  37  52  35 /  10  40  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  36  48  33 /   0  60  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  36  49  33 /   0  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  35  44  29 /   0  80  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250858
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
358 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN CHANGES MADE WERE TO
INCREASE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NE ALONG THE SC-NC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW
TRACKS NE AWAY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ALL QUITE CONSISTENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND LIKELY FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW
FOR THE SMOKIES...NRN MTNS OF E TN AND MOST OF SW VA. THE BEST
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT 08Z
TO 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS RAPIDLY AND
THERE IS NO REAL FORM OF LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE MENTIONED AREAS IN
LINE WITH GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT NWS GRIDS...GENERALLY AROUND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TOTALS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO PRODUCT
AND ALSO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY WHICH COULD BE DENSE ENOUGH
TO AFFECT MAX TEMPS...ALTHO I DID NUDGE HIGHS UP TO AT LEAST NEAR
THE COOLER NAM MOS MAXES. MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT AND CLOSE TO
GFS MOS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT COOLER WHERE SOME SNOW MAY
OCCUR.


.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A SECONDARY SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE PREVAILING WNW
FLOW...THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT...BUT RATHER A
SYNOPTIC LIFT EVENT FROM THE PASSING UPPER- TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY BE
THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST OF THE REGION /PARTICULARLY LATER
IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY/. STILL...A GOOD WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
PERHAPS INTO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THANKSGIVING
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON BLACK FRIDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY BROAD TROUGH
MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
ONLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  37  52  35 /  10  40  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  36  48  33 /   0  60  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  36  49  33 /   0  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  35  44  29 /   0  80  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH MORE THAN A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH AROUND
26/00Z TO 26/04Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD BY THAT
TIME...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS PROBABLY DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES IN THE 26/06Z TO 26/12Z PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH MORE THAN A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH AROUND
26/00Z TO 26/04Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD BY THAT
TIME...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS PROBABLY DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT
ALL 3 TAF SITES IN THE 26/06Z TO 26/12Z PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250209
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
909 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             38  55  36  52 /   0  10  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  50  35  50 /  10   0  40  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       36  51  36  50 /  10   0  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  50  34  46 /  10   0  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250209
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
909 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             38  55  36  52 /   0  10  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  50  35  50 /  10   0  40  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       36  51  36  50 /  10   0  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  50  34  46 /  10   0  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
608 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS ARE DRYING DOWN THIS EVENING...AND ONLY TRI WILL SEE
SOME GUSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
608 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS ARE DRYING DOWN THIS EVENING...AND ONLY TRI WILL SEE
SOME GUSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242006
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...JUST SOME BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COLD ADVECTION EXIT
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...SO WILL LET REMAINING WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AT THIS POINT THE
MOST EXCITEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO
MAKE IT`S WAY NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HAVE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND AND INVADE THE AREA AS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SNOW. AREAS TOWARDS THE VALLEY WOULD LIKELY
SEE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BEST
TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN A TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES.

QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO
THE AREA. EARLY THURSDAY/LATE WEDNESDAY SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO
START TO DRY OUT THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE OTHERS WANT
TO KEEP IT MOIST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE TIME DRAWS
CLOSER AS IT COULD HELP SOME LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER QUICK BOUT OF
SNOW IF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ARE STILL MOIST COME THURSDAY
MORNING.

WE TAKE A BREAK FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS TEMPS SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB
BEFORE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT AT PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS WANT TO
BRING IN A FRONT AND STALL IT OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY.
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THEY ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHERE
THIS COULD OCCUR. IF THIS DOES COME TO PASS PLACES NORTH OF THE
FRONT COULD BE IN STORE FOR SOME STEADY RAIN TOWARDS THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             38  55  36  52 /   0  10  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  53  35  50 /  10   0  40  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       36  52  36  50 /  10   0  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  54  34  46 /  10   0  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242006
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...JUST SOME BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COLD ADVECTION EXIT
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...SO WILL LET REMAINING WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AT THIS POINT THE
MOST EXCITEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO
MAKE IT`S WAY NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HAVE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND AND INVADE THE AREA AS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SNOW. AREAS TOWARDS THE VALLEY WOULD LIKELY
SEE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BEST
TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN A TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES.

QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO
THE AREA. EARLY THURSDAY/LATE WEDNESDAY SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO
START TO DRY OUT THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE OTHERS WANT
TO KEEP IT MOIST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE TIME DRAWS
CLOSER AS IT COULD HELP SOME LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER QUICK BOUT OF
SNOW IF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ARE STILL MOIST COME THURSDAY
MORNING.

WE TAKE A BREAK FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS TEMPS SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB
BEFORE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT AT PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS WANT TO
BRING IN A FRONT AND STALL IT OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY.
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THEY ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHERE
THIS COULD OCCUR. IF THIS DOES COME TO PASS PLACES NORTH OF THE
FRONT COULD BE IN STORE FOR SOME STEADY RAIN TOWARDS THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             38  55  36  52 /   0  10  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  53  35  50 /  10   0  40  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       36  52  36  50 /  10   0  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  54  34  46 /  10   0  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1219 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE FRONT...THEN WINDS
DIMINISHING. LOW CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY PERSISTENT BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 241719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1219 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE FRONT...THEN WINDS
DIMINISHING. LOW CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY PERSISTENT BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 241523
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP...WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY.
NOT MUCH PRECIP...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. FORECAST
FOR TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. STILL COULD SEE SOME
WINDS REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE FRONT...SO WILL
KEEP WIND ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. WILL TWEAK SKY...TEMPS...AND DEW
POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  36  55  34 /  20  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  36  52  35 /  20  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  36  52  34 /  20  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  36  49  32 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 241133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP CIGS AND VISBYS VFR. THUS...DROPPED THE MVFR
FROM EARLIER TAFS. RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY OR NEAR CALM LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  36  55  34 /  20  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  36  52  35 /  20  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  36  52  34 /  20  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  36  49  32 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP CIGS AND VISBYS VFR. THUS...DROPPED THE MVFR
FROM EARLIER TAFS. RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY OR NEAR CALM LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  36  55  34 /  20  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  36  52  35 /  20  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  36  52  34 /  20  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  36  49  32 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240859
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
359 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE 24/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS AND
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED TO
SW ACROSS THE REGION...AND GUSTS IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE IN
THE ADVISORY RANGE AT THIS TIME. THUS...OPTED TO DROP THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AND REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE BOARD. TIMING
THE END OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AROUND 18Z
IN WRN COUNTIES AND 21Z FOR EASTERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MINIMAL FOR TODAY...SO NO
CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. VERY MILD TEMPS THIS
MORNING IN THE 60S...GENERALLY CLOSE TO GFS MAXES. COOLER GFS MOS
MINS GOOD FOR TONIGHT IF WINDS DROP OFF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES
MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF
TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT GFS/ECMWF STILL WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW
FROM GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND INCREASED MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS
THERE WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SOME COLD RAIN
ELSEWHERE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER MOUNTAINS. HIGHS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY 30S TO LOWER 40S BUT
WARMER TO THE WEST. ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT AFFECT TRAVEL
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WEAK UPPER
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH SHORTWAVE PRODUCES A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF REGION. PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY A LIGHT RAIN BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGHER PRESSURE THEN REGAINS CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND BUT A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NW. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  36  55  34 /  20  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  36  52  35 /  20  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  36  52  34 /  20  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  36  49  32 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240859
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
359 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE 24/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS AND
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED TO
SW ACROSS THE REGION...AND GUSTS IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE IN
THE ADVISORY RANGE AT THIS TIME. THUS...OPTED TO DROP THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AND REPLACE WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE BOARD. TIMING
THE END OF THE ADVISORY SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AROUND 18Z
IN WRN COUNTIES AND 21Z FOR EASTERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MINIMAL FOR TODAY...SO NO
CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. VERY MILD TEMPS THIS
MORNING IN THE 60S...GENERALLY CLOSE TO GFS MAXES. COOLER GFS MOS
MINS GOOD FOR TONIGHT IF WINDS DROP OFF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES
MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF
TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT GFS/ECMWF STILL WANTING TO DEVELOP LOW
FROM GULF INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND INCREASED MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS
THERE WITH MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SOME COLD RAIN
ELSEWHERE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER MOUNTAINS. HIGHS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY 30S TO LOWER 40S BUT
WARMER TO THE WEST. ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT AFFECT TRAVEL
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WEAK UPPER
LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH SHORTWAVE PRODUCES A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF REGION. PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY A LIGHT RAIN BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGHER PRESSURE THEN REGAINS CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND BUT A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY BY
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
STAY TO THE NW. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  36  55  34 /  20  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  36  52  35 /  20  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  36  52  34 /  20  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  36  49  32 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HAMILTON-MARION-
     MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240524
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1224 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...SHOWERS JUST ABOUT OVER FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
SHORT TERM...WITH MAIN CONCERN THE STRONG S-SW SURFACE WINDS THAT
WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME...AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

CIGS MAY GRADUALLY FALL INTO MVFR THIS MORNING FOR CHA...AND ALSO
BRIEFLY AT TYS...WHILE VFR FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE AT TRI.

&&

NC...NONE.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240524
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1224 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...SHOWERS JUST ABOUT OVER FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
SHORT TERM...WITH MAIN CONCERN THE STRONG S-SW SURFACE WINDS THAT
WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME...AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.

CIGS MAY GRADUALLY FALL INTO MVFR THIS MORNING FOR CHA...AND ALSO
BRIEFLY AT TYS...WHILE VFR FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE AT TRI.

&&

NC...NONE.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240228
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT...INCREASING TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE TAKEN OUT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE EXPIRATION AT 7 AM
MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW WITH WINDS
BORDERLINE CRITERIA. FOR THIS WILL LET THE NEXT CREW DECIDE AND
ISSUE IF NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  65  36  54 /  70  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  64  36  52 /  90  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  62  36  52 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  65  36  48 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
     NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240228
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
928 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TONIGHT...INCREASING TOMORROW AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE TAKEN OUT FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE EXPIRATION AT 7 AM
MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW WITH WINDS
BORDERLINE CRITERIA. FOR THIS WILL LET THE NEXT CREW DECIDE AND
ISSUE IF NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  65  36  54 /  70  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  64  36  52 /  90  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  62  36  52 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  65  36  48 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-
     NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 232327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
627 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL BE EXITING FROM THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...SO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT IN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A S-SW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM MO TO MI. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
TOMORROW AS SPEEDS UP TO 30-35 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WIND
DIRECTION TOMORROW WILL BE SW AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 232327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
627 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL BE EXITING FROM THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...SO VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO MANIFEST ITSELF AS LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT IN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A S-SW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM MO TO MI. WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
TOMORROW AS SPEEDS UP TO 30-35 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WIND
DIRECTION TOMORROW WILL BE SW AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231951
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN SLOW
TO RELEASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHEAST H85 WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SW-NE
UPPER JET TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NAM WANTS TO CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO KEEP THE ENERGY OF THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY`S AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE
FRONT DOWN SOUTH OF US ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR THE AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
WANT TO GIN UP A LOW THAT SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO OUR NORTH EAST. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AND
BROUGHT IN LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE THE SNOW STAYING
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AS THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
AND COOLER TEMPS TO SUPPORT SNOW, BUT AT THE MOMENT HAVE THOSE
LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK TILL HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
POTENTIAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP
CHANCES/TYPE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHEN (OR IF) THIS MIGHT HAPPEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  65  36  54 /  70  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  64  36  52 /  90  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  62  36  52 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  65  36  48 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231951
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN SLOW
TO RELEASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHEAST H85 WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE NIGHT. STRENGTHENING SW-NE
UPPER JET TAKES SHAPE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
NAM WANTS TO CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO KEEP THE ENERGY OF THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION YOU BELIEVE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY`S AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE
FRONT DOWN SOUTH OF US ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR THE AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
WANT TO GIN UP A LOW THAT SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS IN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TO OUR NORTH EAST. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AND
BROUGHT IN LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE THE SNOW STAYING
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AS THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
AND COOLER TEMPS TO SUPPORT SNOW, BUT AT THE MOMENT HAVE THOSE
LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK TILL HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
POTENTIAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP
CHANCES/TYPE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
WHEN (OR IF) THIS MIGHT HAPPEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  65  36  54 /  70  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  64  36  52 /  90  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  62  36  52 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  65  36  48 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231745
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1245 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KTS WILL CAUSE SOME
WIND SHEAR PROBLEMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT CHA THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN SPEED ON MONDAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231745
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1245 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KTS WILL CAUSE SOME
WIND SHEAR PROBLEMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT CHA THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE IN SPEED ON MONDAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231559
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1059 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENING AS
IT MOVE NE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. EXTENSIVE BAND OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE NORTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH WHEN SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM GA. SATELLITE...RADAR
SIGNATURES AND OBS INDICATE MOUNTAIN WAVE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. HIGH WIND WARNING LOOKS GOOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  53  62  35 /  90  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  59  51  64  33 /  90  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  51  62  33 /  90  50  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  48  65  32 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231559
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1059 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WEAKENING AS
IT MOVE NE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. EXTENSIVE BAND OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE NORTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH WHEN SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM GA. SATELLITE...RADAR
SIGNATURES AND OBS INDICATE MOUNTAIN WAVE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. HIGH WIND WARNING LOOKS GOOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  53  62  35 /  90  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  59  51  64  33 /  90  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  51  62  33 /  90  50  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  48  65  32 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON
     TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

SON





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