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000
FXUS64 KMRX 271345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)...WHILE THE 12Z RNK
SOUNDING HAD LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF PW. DEW POINT TEMPS HOLDING IN
THE 50S ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. FORECAST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MORE ON THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)...WHILE THE 12Z RNK
SOUNDING HAD LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF PW. DEW POINT TEMPS HOLDING IN
THE 50S ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. FORECAST GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MORE ON THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER WITH
FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE TEMPORARY MVFR
AT TRI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ALL SITES VFR.


THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271124
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
724 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER WITH
FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. COULD BE TEMPORARY MVFR
AT TRI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OTHERWISE ALL SITES VFR.


THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONE MORE DAY WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NE SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA IS THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 70. HIGHS
TUESDAY ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WAS ABOUT THE SAME
AS MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE ONE
MORE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE RISING THURSDAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY WHERE NAM GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSER TO ACTUAL HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO COULD BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM OHIO VALLEY. NAM MODEL PUTS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SW VA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT BUT OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT DRY. PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FLOW...SOUTHERLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL SO THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WE SHOULD WATCH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST. THESE WILL TRACK ACROSS MS/AL AND
EVENTUALLY INTO TN ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEAR TOO
WARM AND PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS
THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ONE MORE DAY WITH NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NE SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CHATTANOOGA IS THE EXCEPTION AS TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 70. HIGHS
TUESDAY ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WAS ABOUT THE SAME
AS MONDAY. DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE ONE
MORE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE RISING THURSDAY. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY WHERE NAM GUIDANCE
WAS CLOSER TO ACTUAL HIGHS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES. ALSO COULD BE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS WEAK
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT FROM OHIO VALLEY. NAM MODEL PUTS SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SW VA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT BUT OTHER
MODELS KEEP IT DRY. PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...BY THURSDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FLOW...SOUTHERLY IN THE SOUTH AND
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD LEAD TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL SO THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNSET.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WE SHOULD WATCH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE LA COAST. THESE WILL TRACK ACROSS MS/AL AND
EVENTUALLY INTO TN ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
BACK INTO THE TN VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE NEAR-TERM APPEAR TOO
WARM AND PREFERRED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  65  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  65  91  66 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  65  92  66 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  60  89  60 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 270544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TRI AREA.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TRI BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 270544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
140 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE TRI AREA.  LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TRI BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270055
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE MID WEST. AREA RADARS REVEAL NO CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO A FAIRLY DEEP MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270055
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE MID WEST. AREA RADARS REVEAL NO CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...DUE TO A FAIRLY DEEP MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 262344 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TRI AREA.  THIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z.  OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 262344 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NEAR THE TRI AREA.  THIS MAY GENERATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z.  OTHERWISE...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
FOR FAIR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261941
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
341 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THUS
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 70S TO UPPER 60S BY LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AREA LAKES/RIVERS ONCE AGAIN...BUT A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT ITS TO DEVELOPMENT TO THOSE USUAL PRONE AREAS.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE AFTERNOON...AND A STRONG CAP
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FIRING...SO HAVE A
KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN
PLACE...AND THIS RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DOMINATING
INFLUENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH LEADS TO A CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THAT SHOULD TEND
TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEAK
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MONDAY...AND ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO START BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP THAT IS FORECAST IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS KEEPS KTRI BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS.  MOS
TEMPS LOOKED GOOD OVERALL...SO HAVE KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261941
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
341 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND THUS
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP INTO THE 70S TO UPPER 60S BY LATE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AREA LAKES/RIVERS ONCE AGAIN...BUT A DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT ITS TO DEVELOPMENT TO THOSE USUAL PRONE AREAS.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE AFTERNOON...AND A STRONG CAP
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FIRING...SO HAVE A
KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN
PLACE...AND THIS RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DOMINATING
INFLUENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED TO THE EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...BUT THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH LEADS TO A CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THAT SHOULD TEND
TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEAK
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MONDAY...AND ALLOW
THE RIDGE TO START BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP THAT IS FORECAST IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS...THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS KEEPS KTRI BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS.  MOS
TEMPS LOOKED GOOD OVERALL...SO HAVE KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  93  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  90  64  93 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  91  63  93 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  87  59  91 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/GM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261739 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AT KTRI WHERE SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261449 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1049 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND THE PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...AN INTERESTING FEATURE JUST TO OUR WEST IS A LOW-STRATUS
SHIELD CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ITS
CURRENT MOTION IS PUSHING IT AWAY FROM OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERTIME WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...
HAVE KEPT THE SKY GRIDS MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE PLATEAU THIS
MORNING. WITH THE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER...THINK HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE ARE A GOOD BET /ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY/. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING CAP DEVELOPING ALOFT THOUGH...A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH NO DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  64  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  63  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  56  89  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261449 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1049 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUD
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND THE PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...AN INTERESTING FEATURE JUST TO OUR WEST IS A LOW-STRATUS
SHIELD CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ITS
CURRENT MOTION IS PUSHING IT AWAY FROM OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERTIME WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...
HAVE KEPT THE SKY GRIDS MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE PLATEAU THIS
MORNING. WITH THE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CLOUD COVER...THINK HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE ARE A GOOD BET /ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY/. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING CAP DEVELOPING ALOFT THOUGH...A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH NO DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  64  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  63  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  56  89  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261118
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260810
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
410 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. DEW POINT BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE TO JUST OUTSIDE NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND STILL LOWER DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  64  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  86  63  90  65 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  63  91  65 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  56  89  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260541
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260541
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
141 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
WITH A DRY AIRMASS. LIGHT LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH A LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
FROM THE CAROLINAS (MID TO UPPER 50S) WESTWARD ACROSS THE TN AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). AREA RADARS REVEAL
NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY CREATES A MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STABLE LAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  85  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH A LARGE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
FROM THE CAROLINAS (MID TO UPPER 50S) WESTWARD ACROSS THE TN AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). AREA RADARS REVEAL
NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY CREATES A MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STABLE LAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT
PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  85  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FINALLY GETS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE
SUPPRESSING ABILITIES OF A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS MEANS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WITH LITTLE THREAT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH END MVFR
FOG AT TRI FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK AS LONG WAVE RADIATION
LEADS TO SOME SATURATION AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 252351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
751 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FINALLY GETS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE
SUPPRESSING ABILITIES OF A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS MEANS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WITH LITTLE THREAT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH END MVFR
FOG AT TRI FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK AS LONG WAVE RADIATION
LEADS TO SOME SATURATION AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 251915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A CLEARING SKY WITH
THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE PLATEAU. AS A RESULT OF THE MOSTLY
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...AND THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AREA
LAKES/RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST
AFTER 06Z. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY...IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
CAP ALOFT WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FIRING...SO HAVE A
KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALSO BUILT INTO THE
AREA...MAKING FOR QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE THIS PATTERN IS SLOW TO
CHANGE...BUT FINALLY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE EAST...MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO ROUGHLY BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS A LITTLE
IFFY...MODELS AGREE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...BUT
WHEN THE MOIST AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LIFT IS
NOT WELL-AGREED UPON. NOT LOOKING LIKE SEVERE STORMS AS THE
DYNAMICS IS VERY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR QPF IN THESE
PERIODS...HELD OFF ON THURSDAY FOR ANY QPF...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT
IN THE AREA YET...AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEPT THE AREA DRY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HEATING UP PRETTY WELL UNDER THE
RIDGE THIS WEEK...THEN COOLING DOWN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WETTER CONDITIONS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  90  65  93 /   0   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  87  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  92 /   0   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  85  53  88 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251730 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KTYS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MVFR/LOCALIZED FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AT KTRI...BUT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251730 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KTYS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MVFR/LOCALIZED FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AT KTRI...BUT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251402 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1002 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER FOR
TODAY...MOISTURE STILL PRESENT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY DENSE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING /ALONG WITH A
COUPLE OF ROGUE SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU/. AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
BREAK UP AND SHIFT OFF TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONGER CAP
DEVELOPING ALOFT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR DOES HINT AT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ALONG THE PLATEAU...
SO HAVE ADDED A SOME LOW-END MENTIONABLE POPS IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  67  91  66 /  20   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  65  88  64 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  66  89  64 /  10   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  56  86  61 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BECOME SCATTERED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
LAYER DRYING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO LOW FOR MENTION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BECOME SCATTERED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
LAYER DRYING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO LOW FOR MENTION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250655
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BISECT MRX CWA EXTENDING FROM NEAR SE TN/SW NC BORDER
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A POSSIBILITY OF WEAK
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVERGENCE PUSHES SW THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE H70-H50 DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME INITIATING AND WITH NE
STEERING FLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARM TODAY THEN COOLING TO BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE DAMPENS A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN DURING THE WEEKEND.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING...THOUGH THE GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER...COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF.  WITH CONFIDENCE SO LOW ON TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 TO 30 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  67  91  66 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  65  88  64 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  66  89  64 /  10   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  56  86  61 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250655
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
255 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BISECT MRX CWA EXTENDING FROM NEAR SE TN/SW NC BORDER
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A POSSIBILITY OF WEAK
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CONVERGENCE PUSHES SW THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE H70-H50 DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME INITIATING AND WITH NE
STEERING FLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARM TODAY THEN COOLING TO BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE DAMPENS A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN DURING THE WEEKEND.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING...THOUGH THE GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER...COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF.  WITH CONFIDENCE SO LOW ON TIMING...FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 TO 30 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  67  91  66 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  65  88  64 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  66  89  64 /  10   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  56  86  61 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LAYER DRYING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO LOW FOR MENTION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250527
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LAYER DRYING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO LOW FOR MENTION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST TN AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VA. AREA RADARS REVEAL SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERING
SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST TN...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL
UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING TO REMOVE ANY EVENING PRECIP WORDING AND
TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  89  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  86  56  86 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST TN AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHEAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VA. AREA RADARS REVEAL SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERING
SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST TN...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL
UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING TO REMOVE ANY EVENING PRECIP WORDING AND
TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  89  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  86  56  86 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...STILL A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE ALONG AREA OF CONVERGENCE SITUATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SO KEPT A VICINITY TSRA AT CHA FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST BET AT TRI WHERE
AN IFR REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE FOG MAY BE MUCH LIGHTER AT TYS
BUT WILL FORM AROUND 08-11Z. MONDAY SHOULD BE A VFR FLIGHT WEATHER
DAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF CHA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 242359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...STILL A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE ALONG AREA OF CONVERGENCE SITUATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY SO KEPT A VICINITY TSRA AT CHA FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST BET AT TRI WHERE
AN IFR REDUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE FOG MAY BE MUCH LIGHTER AT TYS
BUT WILL FORM AROUND 08-11Z. MONDAY SHOULD BE A VFR FLIGHT WEATHER
DAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF CHA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 241838
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN.  THE CURRENT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SOUTH AND CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE CAPPED NORTHEAST
MONDAY...BUT ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST ZONES THE CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO
WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...PROMOTING MOSTLY SUNNY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO STRONGER CAP THAT WILL SUPPRESS
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FORM THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR AT FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE A BROAD TROUGH SWEEPS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND GIVES THE REGION ITS BEST SHOT AT
RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
BUT...GIVEN THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARD THAT.
ALSO...GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GOOD HEATING EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  89  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  86  56  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241838
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN.  THE CURRENT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SOUTH AND CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE CAPPED NORTHEAST
MONDAY...BUT ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST ZONES THE CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO
WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...PROMOTING MOSTLY SUNNY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO STRONGER CAP THAT WILL SUPPRESS
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FORM THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR AT FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE A BROAD TROUGH SWEEPS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND GIVES THE REGION ITS BEST SHOT AT
RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
BUT...GIVEN THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARD THAT.
ALSO...GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GOOD HEATING EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  89  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  86  56  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241723
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE AROUND ESPECIALLY TYS
AND TRI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE LATER IN THE
PERIOD. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT TRI AND TO A
LESSER EXTEND TYS. WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR VIS AND TRI TO IFR...BUT
LOWER VALUES POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241723
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
123 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE AROUND ESPECIALLY TYS
AND TRI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE LATER IN THE
PERIOD. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT TRI AND TO A
LESSER EXTEND TYS. WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR VIS AND TRI TO IFR...BUT
LOWER VALUES POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




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