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000
FXUS64 KMRX 212314
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
614 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... CHANCE OF DRIZZLE INVADING THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT, BUT THINK THAT BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
TERMINALS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT
ALL SITES AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM STORMS TO THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED BR AT KTRI AS CROSSOVER TEMPS SUGGEST THAT THEY COULD SEE
FOG FORM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 212009
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE GFS KEEPING MEASUREABLE PRECIP TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL. HOWEVER
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IT SHOWS
MOISTURE CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BELOW 700 MB AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THE 290-295K LEVELS...MORE OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE THAN MUCH
MEASUREABLE RAIN. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE WIND COULD FURTHER REDUCE QPF IN
THE TN VALLEY. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO HANDLE THIS
PATTERN...WITH CHANCE POPS EAST TAPERING TO ONLY DRIZZLE WEST...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN BY THE NAM
LIFTS NORTH OF THE OUR AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z...SO WILL END ALL RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE NOON. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS BEHIND IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP MOISTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE AND THEN A
QUIETER FINISH. STORMS...RAIN/WIND...AND SNOW STILL POSSIBLE. THIS
IS BECOMING A TRICKY FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FEATURE HEIGHTS QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF OUR IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING FOR
A WHILE NOW. AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION...THIS WILL
KEEP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY UNSEASONABLE WARM AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
AND NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. START BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING
THEM THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PORTIONS OF NEON AND SOFA TO SEE RAIN BECAUSE OF.

STORMS...LATE TUESDAYS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING LOOKS TRICKY TO ME
REGARDING STORMS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...IT DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS.
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE/IMPACT WILL THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FURTHER
SOUTH HAVE ACROSS OUR AREA...WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE
DRAPED...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL THERE BE? THE CERTAINTIES
ARE...STRONG LIFT PRESENT...HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS TO
SEE HOW IT FURTHER UNFOLDS. LEFT THUNDER IN FOR KNOXVILLE
AND SOUTHWARD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

FOR THE RAIN/WIND...IF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH REALLY BLOWS UP
IT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP WE SEE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR STRONG
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH TO INTERRUPT THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL THINK IT IS LIKELY WE SEE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE EXISTING
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS...AND THE STRONG 850MB JET AXIS OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40
TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I STILL DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH
AMOUNTS FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30KTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE 40 TO
50KT 850MB JET. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE SNOW...FOR THE SNOW LOVERS IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD. FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR...AND THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO. THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. DUE TO THE DELAYED COLD AIR AND THE SPEED OF WHICH THE
UPPER LOW RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES
TO DECREASE. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOISTURE LEFT. BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF THE LOW THERE WON`T BE MUCH
TIME TO FUNNEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THERE
LIKELY WON`T BE ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...MOST
AREAS WILL STILL PROBABLY SEE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING....WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA. UPPER ELEVATIONS MAY STILL SEE
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITING ON
THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE MAY
EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT MODELS AREN`T HANDLING IT TOO WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS THOUGH UNTIL THERE IS BETTER RESOLUTION. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  20  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 212009
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE GFS KEEPING MEASUREABLE PRECIP TO OUR EAST
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL. HOWEVER
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IT SHOWS
MOISTURE CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BELOW 700 MB AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT THE 290-295K LEVELS...MORE OF A DRIZZLE PROFILE THAN MUCH
MEASUREABLE RAIN. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE WIND COULD FURTHER REDUCE QPF IN
THE TN VALLEY. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TO HANDLE THIS
PATTERN...WITH CHANCE POPS EAST TAPERING TO ONLY DRIZZLE WEST...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN BY THE NAM
LIFTS NORTH OF THE OUR AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z...SO WILL END ALL RAIN
CHANCES BEFORE NOON. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS BEHIND IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL LEAN ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP MOISTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE AND THEN A
QUIETER FINISH. STORMS...RAIN/WIND...AND SNOW STILL POSSIBLE. THIS
IS BECOMING A TRICKY FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FEATURE HEIGHTS QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF OUR IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING FOR
A WHILE NOW. AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION...THIS WILL
KEEP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY UNSEASONABLE WARM AS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
AND NEAR 60 IN A FEW SPOTS...GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. START BRINGING IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING
THEM THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR PORTIONS OF NEON AND SOFA TO SEE RAIN BECAUSE OF.

STORMS...LATE TUESDAYS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING LOOKS TRICKY TO ME
REGARDING STORMS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...IT DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS.
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE/IMPACT WILL THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FURTHER
SOUTH HAVE ACROSS OUR AREA...WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT BE
DRAPED...HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL THERE BE? THE CERTAINTIES
ARE...STRONG LIFT PRESENT...HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS TO
SEE HOW IT FURTHER UNFOLDS. LEFT THUNDER IN FOR KNOXVILLE
AND SOUTHWARD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

FOR THE RAIN/WIND...IF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH REALLY BLOWS UP
IT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP WE SEE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR STRONG
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH TO INTERRUPT THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA. HAVING SAID THAT...I STILL THINK IT IS LIKELY WE SEE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE EXISTING
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS...AND THE STRONG 850MB JET AXIS OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT
GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40
TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I STILL DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH
AMOUNTS FROM HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30KTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE 40 TO
50KT 850MB JET. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE SNOW...FOR THE SNOW LOVERS IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD. FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR...AND THEY CONTINUE TO DO SO. THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. DUE TO THE DELAYED COLD AIR AND THE SPEED OF WHICH THE
UPPER LOW RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES
TO DECREASE. BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE
MOISTURE LEFT. BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF THE LOW THERE WON`T BE MUCH
TIME TO FUNNEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THOUGH THERE
LIKELY WON`T BE ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...MOST
AREAS WILL STILL PROBABLY SEE LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING....WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA. UPPER ELEVATIONS MAY STILL SEE
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITING ON
THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WE MAY
EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT MODELS AREN`T HANDLING IT TOO WELL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS THOUGH UNTIL THERE IS BETTER RESOLUTION. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  53  46  57 /  20  10  40  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  54  44  59 /  20  10  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  55  44  58 /  20  10  20  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  51  39  57 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1214 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT CHA AND TYS...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE MVFR RANGE AT CHA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TYS AND TRI WILL BE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIZZLE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BUT A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY BE HELP
KEEP THOSE SITES VFR. CHA IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE IN THAT CATEGORY INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1214 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED AT CHA AND TYS...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE MVFR RANGE AT CHA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TYS AND TRI WILL BE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIZZLE
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BUT A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND MAY BE HELP
KEEP THOSE SITES VFR. CHA IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE IN THAT CATEGORY INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211522 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THE MODELS HAVE
NOT HANDLED THEM WELL AT ALL...AND HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR THE
CLOUDS OUT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
IGNORE THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART AND JUST TRY TO ADJUST SKY
GRIDS TO CURRENT SATELLITE. TEMPS WILL NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WITH
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH AND FULL SUN LIKELY IN
PARTS OF THE NORTH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 211522 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1022 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THE MODELS HAVE
NOT HANDLED THEM WELL AT ALL...AND HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO CLEAR THE
CLOUDS OUT. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
IGNORE THE MODELS FOR THE MOST PART AND JUST TRY TO ADJUST SKY
GRIDS TO CURRENT SATELLITE. TEMPS WILL NEED SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WITH
THE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON IN THE SOUTH AND FULL SUN LIKELY IN
PARTS OF THE NORTH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 211133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THE LINGERING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AT TYS AND TRI AS WELL BUT WILL KEEP
CIGS AT VFR LEVELS. MAY SEE SOME FOG AT TRI LATE. SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 211133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
633 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. THE LINGERING CLOUDS THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO BREAK UP DURING THE DAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AT TYS AND TRI AS WELL BUT WILL KEEP
CIGS AT VFR LEVELS. MAY SEE SOME FOG AT TRI LATE. SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS PRECIP FREE
FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 210906
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP
ALLOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY.  WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.  BETTER LIFT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND RATHER SHALLOW...SO
WILL JUST CARRY PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN.  THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR TONIGHT.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...INCLUDING TWEAKING MOST MIN
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORT WAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BREAK OR TWO
OF SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE ESPECIALLY WEST. WILL BE AWAITING THE
STRENGTHENING MIDDLE AMERICA STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHICH FEATURES A STRENGTHENING AND MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS THE WIND FIELD WILL RAMP
UP RATHER DECENTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. THE STRONG
WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO A NICE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
AND PART OF CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE WHERE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO THE TYPICAL WARMING AND DRYING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
DUE TO THE FORCED FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
FORM OUT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE SYSTEM`S WARM SECTOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO ADDED THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PATTERN OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE ANY TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THE SNOW EVENT DOESN`T
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE GREAT VALLEY WITH A LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET WHERE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGH LATE MORNING ON CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
OVER IN THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT ON FUTURE RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR THIS PERIOD.
FOR NOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MOISTENING AND INCREASING LIFT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  40  56  46 /  10  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  38  55  43 /   0  20  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  37  55  44 /   0  20  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              47  35  51  37 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 210906
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO BREAK UP
ALLOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY.  WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.  BETTER LIFT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.  MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND RATHER SHALLOW...SO
WILL JUST CARRY PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN.  THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL LIQUID PRECIP FOR TONIGHT.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...INCLUDING TWEAKING MOST MIN
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS STILL INDICATE SUNDAY
NIGHT SHORT WAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BREAK OR TWO
OF SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE ESPECIALLY WEST. WILL BE AWAITING THE
STRENGTHENING MIDDLE AMERICA STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHICH FEATURES A STRENGTHENING AND MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS THE WIND FIELD WILL RAMP
UP RATHER DECENTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION MONDAY NIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. THE STRONG
WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO A NICE
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
AND PART OF CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE WHERE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO THE TYPICAL WARMING AND DRYING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
DUE TO THE FORCED FLOW OVER THE TERRAIN. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
FORM OUT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THE FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS WHICH WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE SYSTEM`S WARM SECTOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO ADDED THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PATTERN OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THEREFORE ANY TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THE SNOW EVENT DOESN`T
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN
THE GREAT VALLEY WITH A LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET WHERE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGH LATE MORNING ON CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
OVER IN THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CERTAIN
DEGREE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT ON FUTURE RUNS TO GET A BETTER IDEA FOR THIS PERIOD.
FOR NOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON THE APPROACH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MOISTENING AND INCREASING LIFT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  40  56  46 /  10  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  38  55  43 /   0  20  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  37  55  44 /   0  20  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              47  35  51  37 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 210532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO LINGER AT TRI UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WILL GO WITH MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT
FOG AT TYS SO WILL KEEP VFR THERE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 210532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO LINGER AT TRI UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WILL GO WITH MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT
FOG AT TYS SO WILL KEEP VFR THERE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
MVFR CIGS IN AT CHA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 210242
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST A FEW TEMP VALUES AND INCREASE CLOUDS
AS THEY`RE SLOWER TO RETREAT. STILL THINK THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 210242
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO ADJUST A FEW TEMP VALUES AND INCREASE CLOUDS
AS THEY`RE SLOWER TO RETREAT. STILL THINK THAT FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 202332
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
632 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MID LEVEL CEILINGS ARE TRYING TO CLEAR OUT
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO. BELIEVE THERE ARE 2
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS TONIGHT. 1...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND KTYS AND
ESPECIALLY KTRI GET IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. 2...CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND KEEP TEMPS UP AND FOG STRUGGLES TO FORM.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AND CONTINUED MENTION
OF FOG IN THE TAFS. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION TO SEE IF CLOUDS ARE
ABLE TO MOVE ON OUT. REGARDLESS, SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES AROUND 15Z AND AFTERWARDS TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 202022
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE HRRR IS
ACCURATE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING AND CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE NORTH...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
THERE AS WELL AS SW NC. FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK MIXING TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NOW OVER TX WILL BE
LIFTING E-NE AND CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE
JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN AL TO THE NC COAST...THE MAJORITY OF
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM
PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS THIS MOISTURE MAINLY BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING THAT
DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WILL
CUT BACK POPS TO A CHANCE EAST TO NOTHING WEST...BUT MENTIONING
DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. QPF WILL BE REDUCED AS WELL...TO NO MORE THAN A
TENTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ALL THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD
BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUITE THE ACTIVE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM COMING IN FOR CHRISTMAS THAT
WILL BRING...RAIN...MAYBE A FEW STORMS...WIND...AND PERHAPS SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAY TO BE UNSEASONABLE
WARM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND DEEP TROUGH IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DID DECIDE
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOXVILLE SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS VERY WEAK BUT SHEAR
AND HELICITY ARE ROBUST...IN LARGE PART DUE TO A STRONG 850MB JET OF
40 TO 50 KTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BUT DID WANT TO MENTION A STORM
OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM
1.40 TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN THOUGH BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. SO NOW
THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT RAIN AND STORMS...LET`S TALK ABOUT SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER NASTY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT HAVE NOT BEEN WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMW AND THE
GFS ARE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST BEFORE IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
SNOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY GET AN INCH OR TWO. AGAIN...ALL OF
THE ABOVE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS HOW IT`S
LOOKING FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 202022
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
322 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF THE TN VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF THE TREND CONTINUES AND IF THE HRRR IS
ACCURATE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEARING AND CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE NORTH...SO WILL MENTION PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
THERE AS WELL AS SW NC. FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK MIXING TOMORROW MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM NOW OVER TX WILL BE
LIFTING E-NE AND CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE
JET POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN AL TO THE NC COAST...THE MAJORITY OF
LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE NAM
PULLS MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THAN THE GFS...BUT EVEN THE NAM
SHOWS THIS MOISTURE MAINLY BELOW THE -10C LEVEL...SUGGESTING THAT
DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WILL
CUT BACK POPS TO A CHANCE EAST TO NOTHING WEST...BUT MENTIONING
DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. QPF WILL BE REDUCED AS WELL...TO NO MORE THAN A
TENTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN ALL THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. THE TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD
BRING AN END TO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUITE THE ACTIVE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEM COMING IN FOR CHRISTMAS THAT
WILL BRING...RAIN...MAYBE A FEW STORMS...WIND...AND PERHAPS SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE QUICKLY BUILDING OUT AHEAD
OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAY TO BE UNSEASONABLE
WARM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND DEEP TROUGH IS ON OUR DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DID DECIDE
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KNOXVILLE SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS VERY WEAK BUT SHEAR
AND HELICITY ARE ROBUST...IN LARGE PART DUE TO A STRONG 850MB JET OF
40 TO 50 KTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BUT DID WANT TO MENTION A STORM
OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MORE SO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. CURRENT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES RANGING FROM
1.40 TO 1.20 INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS PUTS US AT 2SD ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DON`T THINK FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN THOUGH BECAUSE OF HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING. SO NOW
THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT RAIN AND STORMS...LET`S TALK ABOUT SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER NASTY WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT HAVE NOT BEEN WITH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE ECMW AND THE
GFS ARE TRENDING THE LOW FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS THAT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE PASSED OFF TO OUR EAST BEFORE IT GETS
COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
SNOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY GET AN INCH OR TWO. AGAIN...ALL OF
THE ABOVE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THIS IS HOW IT`S
LOOKING FOR NOW.

THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS ON THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...AS IT RACES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  53  41  56 /   0  10  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  38  55 /   0  10  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  50  38  55 /   0   0  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  48  35  51 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 201717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1217 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TYS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
SHOULD LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT AFTER 21Z OR SO BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT TRI AROUND 00-03Z. THIS
EXPECTED CLEARING SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG...ESPCIALLY AT TRI. MOST SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TYS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR
FOG...WITH NO FOG EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AT CHA. LIGHT WINDS AND A
LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD MEAN ANY FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND WILL
HOLD VIS BELOW VFR UNTIL 16Z AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201507 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING ON TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED SO FAR...AND
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IN THE PLATEAU IS MAKING VERY LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. TO SEE MUCH SUN TODAY...WE WILL NEED THE CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT. WITH NO STRONG INVERSION SEEN IN THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS
OR THE LATEST RAP...CLOUD DISSIPATION APPEARS LIKELY WITH SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE SLOW AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAK. WILL UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN THE RATE OF CLEARING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 201507 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE HOLDING ON TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED SO FAR...AND
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IN THE PLATEAU IS MAKING VERY LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS. TO SEE MUCH SUN TODAY...WE WILL NEED THE CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT. WITH NO STRONG INVERSION SEEN IN THE 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS
OR THE LATEST RAP...CLOUD DISSIPATION APPEARS LIKELY WITH SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE SLOW AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
WEAK. WILL UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN THE RATE OF CLEARING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL EXIT EARLY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MAY BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON HOW
LOW VIS WILL GO. FOR NOW WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR...AND TRI TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 201121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
621 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL EXIT EARLY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MAY BE SOME FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ON HOW
LOW VIS WILL GO. FOR NOW WILL TAKE TYS TO MVFR...AND TRI TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 200853
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL EXIT EARLY TODAY.  ONLY SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR SO
FAR...AND MUCH OF THAT NOT REACHING THE GROUND.  WILL CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALL BUT SOUTHWEST/WEST ZONES EARLY
TODAY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME
DRYING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND WEAK FLOW LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. JUST SOME MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...MOSTLY TO TWEAK DOWN SOME HIGHS AND
TWEAK UP SOME LOWS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH SOME
RIDGING ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE SWINGING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A SNOW FLURRY IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE MAINLY WESTERN
AREAS. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME MAJOR LEAGUE AMPLIFICATION WITH A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPLETE WITH A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES. THEREFORE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER GOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A CLAP OF
THUNDER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FEATURE AND THE MOIST AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY THE AFTERNOON THE RAIN
WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BUT MAINLY OUT
WEST ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AGAIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY BUT SOME OF THESE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT. THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH A PROGRESSIVE MODE FOR THIS SYSTEM
ON CHRISTMAS DAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND A RETURN TO SUNSHINE FOR
MOST AREAS. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVENING IN
TIME FOR THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  33  53  41 /  10   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  31  51  38 /  20   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  30  50  38 /  20   0  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  29  48  34 /  40  10   0  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 200853
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WILL EXIT EARLY TODAY.  ONLY SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR SO
FAR...AND MUCH OF THAT NOT REACHING THE GROUND.  WILL CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALL BUT SOUTHWEST/WEST ZONES EARLY
TODAY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME
DRYING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND WEAK FLOW LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN SKY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. JUST SOME MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV TEMPS...MOSTLY TO TWEAK DOWN SOME HIGHS AND
TWEAK UP SOME LOWS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH SOME
RIDGING ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE SWINGING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A SNOW FLURRY IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE MAINLY WESTERN
AREAS. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME MAJOR LEAGUE AMPLIFICATION WITH A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPLETE WITH A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES. THEREFORE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER GOING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...MAYBE EVEN A CLAP OF
THUNDER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST IN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AND SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FEATURE AND THE MOIST AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY THE AFTERNOON THE RAIN
WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BUT MAINLY OUT
WEST ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AGAIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY BUT SOME OF THESE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT. THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH A PROGRESSIVE MODE FOR THIS SYSTEM
ON CHRISTMAS DAY ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND A RETURN TO SUNSHINE FOR
MOST AREAS. THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT AGAIN CHRISTMAS EVENING IN
TIME FOR THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  33  53  41 /  10   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  31  51  38 /  20   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  30  50  38 /  20   0  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  29  48  34 /  40  10   0  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 200526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONDITIONS VFR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 200526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONDITIONS VFR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 200317
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1017 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO
BE RELATIVELY ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  51  36  54 /  70  20   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  45  33  52 /  40  30   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  45  33  51 /  40  20   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              31  43  30  49 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 200317
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1017 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO
BE RELATIVELY ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  51  36  54 /  70  20   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  45  33  52 /  40  30   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  45  33  51 /  40  20   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              31  43  30  49 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 200317
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1017 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO
BE RELATIVELY ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  51  36  54 /  70  20   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  45  33  52 /  40  30   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  45  33  51 /  40  20   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              31  43  30  49 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 200317
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1017 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO
BE RELATIVELY ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  51  36  54 /  70  20   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  45  33  52 /  40  30   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  45  33  51 /  40  20   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              31  43  30  49 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 192323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... RAIN IS MAKING IT`S WAY TOWARDS THE AREA AND
COULD START TO IMPACT KCHA BY AROUND 06Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY
LIGHTNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR DURING THE
RAIN. SYSTEM COULD MAKE ITS WAY UP TO KTYS AND KTRI AND HAVE NOTED
THIS IN THE TAFS...IF IT DOES MAKE IT`S WAY THAT FAR NORTH KTRI
COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW, BUT THINK THAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 192323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... RAIN IS MAKING IT`S WAY TOWARDS THE AREA AND
COULD START TO IMPACT KCHA BY AROUND 06Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY
LIGHTNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR DURING THE
RAIN. SYSTEM COULD MAKE ITS WAY UP TO KTYS AND KTRI AND HAVE NOTED
THIS IN THE TAFS...IF IT DOES MAKE IT`S WAY THAT FAR NORTH KTRI
COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW, BUT THINK THAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 192016
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DUE TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS. THE NAM IS THE WETTER AND
COLDER OF THE TWO MODELS. THE PREFERENCE IS MORE TOWARD THE GFS DUE
TO THE PRECIP/CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PROVIDING A STABILIZING EFFECT UPSTREAM AND PREVENTING
NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE RAP APPEARS TO AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE LATEST SREF APPEARS TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD IN
POPS/QPF.

AS A RESULT...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...FADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH. QPF WILL BE
LIGHT...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH
INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE AND WEAK LIFT...NO MORE THAN ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. TRI-CITIES AND SW VA COULD SEE SOME SNOW
IF THE COLDER NAM IS CORRECT...BUT THE WARMER GFS LOOKS LIKE ALL
RAIN. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW IN THAT AREA AS A COMPROMISE...WITH
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE FASTER EXIT OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE GFS
WILL BE FOLLOWED...ENDING POPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO PARTLY CLOUDY. UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL WITH
DRIER AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ANOTHER SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST SUNDAY AND BRINGS CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER OH WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  51  36  54 /  70  20   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  45  33  52 /  40  30   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  45  33  51 /  40  20   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              31  43  30  49 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 192016
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DUE TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS. THE NAM IS THE WETTER AND
COLDER OF THE TWO MODELS. THE PREFERENCE IS MORE TOWARD THE GFS DUE
TO THE PRECIP/CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST...PROVIDING A STABILIZING EFFECT UPSTREAM AND PREVENTING
NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE RAP APPEARS TO AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE LATEST SREF APPEARS TO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD IN
POPS/QPF.

AS A RESULT...WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...FADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH. QPF WILL BE
LIGHT...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SNOW...BUT WITH A SMALL WINDOW OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH
INTO THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE AND WEAK LIFT...NO MORE THAN ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. TRI-CITIES AND SW VA COULD SEE SOME SNOW
IF THE COLDER NAM IS CORRECT...BUT THE WARMER GFS LOOKS LIKE ALL
RAIN. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW IN THAT AREA AS A COMPROMISE...WITH
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. THE FASTER EXIT OF PRECIP SHOWN BY THE GFS
WILL BE FOLLOWED...ENDING POPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO PARTLY CLOUDY. UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL WITH
DRIER AIR MASS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH SKIES PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ANOTHER SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST SUNDAY AND BRINGS CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STEADY
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER OH WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  51  36  54 /  70  20   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  45  33  52 /  40  30   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  45  33  51 /  40  20   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              31  43  30  49 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 191725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1225 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO A MIDLEVEL DECK
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CHA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH TO TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH VIS POSSIBLY DROPPING BARELY
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR. ANY PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 191725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1225 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TO A MIDLEVEL DECK
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CHA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH TO TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH VIS POSSIBLY DROPPING BARELY
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR. ANY PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 191508 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
SW THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX APPROACHES.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF
UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO TONIGHT YET...BUT A DRIER TREND APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING WITH
THE 12Z NAM.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 191508 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK SO FAR...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
SW THROUGH THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX APPROACHES.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF
UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO TONIGHT YET...BUT A DRIER TREND APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING WITH
THE 12Z NAM.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 191115
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
615 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY MOVE IN LATE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
WILL TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT CHA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS VFR FURTHER NORTH.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 191115
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
615 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY MOVE IN LATE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
WILL TAKE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT CHA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS VFR FURTHER NORTH.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 190842
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
340 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE IN STORE.  SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS TREND HAS BEEN DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FORCING
AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED.  HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS SOUTH MAINLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE...WITH CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF.  PRECIP TYPE IS PROBLEMATIC...WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT
THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL LOOK LIKE.  WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW RAIN OR SNOW FOR ALL BUT SOUTH
WHERE WILL KEEP ALL RAIN.  PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT...SO ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND MORE LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.  WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS EXCEPT
FOR SATURDAY...WHEN EXPECT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP RISE SO WILL
UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS RELATIVELY
CLOSE IN DEPICTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURING A DEPARTING
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD BE A COUPLE SNOWFLAKES STILL AROUND IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING
HERE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALLOWS FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...NEXT UPPER WAVE SLIDES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MOSTLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DOESN`T
APPEAR LIKE MUCH OF A PROBLEM HERE WTIH TEMPERATURES NOT DESCENDING
INTO THE FREEZING ZONE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAD TO KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME
MOISTENING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK IMPULSE RIPPING NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS MIDDLE AMERICA. THIS TROUGH
REALLY AMPLIFIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DRIVING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE VIEWING AREA FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMS NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AND THE STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WARRANTS THE USE OF LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR AND A TRAILING
SHORT WAVELENGTH FEATURE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE CIRCULATION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE WORKS FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD HANG AROUND FOR A
WHILE CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DRIER AIR AND
POSSIBLY SUNSHINE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  36  50  36 /   0  70  30   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  34  48  34 /   0  50  40   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       46  33  47  34 /   0  50  40   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  30  45  30 /   0  30  50   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 190520
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1220 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK
UP EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...SO
HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 190520
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1220 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK
UP EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEXT WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...SO
HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 190312
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1012 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUD DECK SHOULD HOLD UP WELL
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE LITTLE AND BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  49  37  50 /   0  10  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  47  34  46 /  10   0  50  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  47  34  46 /   0   0  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              28  46  30  43 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 190312
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1012 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUD DECK SHOULD HOLD UP WELL
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE LITTLE AND BE NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  49  37  50 /   0  10  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  47  34  46 /  10   0  50  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  47  34  46 /   0   0  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              28  46  30  43 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





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