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000
FXUS64 KMRX 260510
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE ARE SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS
THAT FAVOR OR HINDER FOG/CIG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IS INDICATIVE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT WINDS AT TRI...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT WILL MANIFEST AS MVFR
CIGS. TYS IS CURRENTLY RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SOME CLOUDS AT MVFR/VFR
MARGINS...AND MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN BROKEN AND SCATTERED CIGS
DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CAN SPREAD NW. CALM WINDS AND
LOWER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OBSERVED AT CHA SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE
OF FOG...AND WILL HAVE PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THERE WITH A
TEMPO FOR IFR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260510
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE ARE SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS
THAT FAVOR OR HINDER FOG/CIG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IS INDICATIVE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT WINDS AT TRI...WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS PRESENT WILL MANIFEST AS MVFR
CIGS. TYS IS CURRENTLY RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SOME CLOUDS AT MVFR/VFR
MARGINS...AND MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN BROKEN AND SCATTERED CIGS
DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CAN SPREAD NW. CALM WINDS AND
LOWER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OBSERVED AT CHA SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE
OF FOG...AND WILL HAVE PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THERE WITH A
TEMPO FOR IFR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260212
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1012 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN "HALF OF THE GREAT VALLEY" BANKED AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND A SMALL GRADIENT IN SURFACE PRESSURE
HAVE SLOWED THE FALL IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN VALLEY AND
EXPECT THEM TO BE LARGELY GONE BY AROUND 07-08Z. SURFACE WIND
SHOULD ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM MOST AREAS LATER
TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING SURFACE FLOW...SUPPOSE THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT BECOME DENSE FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 260212
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1012 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN "HALF OF THE GREAT VALLEY" BANKED AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE CLOUDS AND A SMALL GRADIENT IN SURFACE PRESSURE
HAVE SLOWED THE FALL IN TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN VALLEY AND
EXPECT THEM TO BE LARGELY GONE BY AROUND 07-08Z. SURFACE WIND
SHOULD ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM MOST AREAS LATER
TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING SURFACE FLOW...SUPPOSE THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG THAT BECOME DENSE FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE. WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 252347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SC AROUND AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A COUPLE CLOUDS MAY SURVIVE FOR A
FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE
WIND RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED FOG FORECAST. VSBY MAY DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 08-09Z. THE TERMINALS
SHOULD BE VFR AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN BY ABOUT 13-14Z. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY FOR FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 251840
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL THEN BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND NORTHEAST TN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
STABLE MID LEVELS... WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE TN
RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
PATTERN EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO SETS
OF GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON MONDAY...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  PATTERN
CHANGE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.  A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.  ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS.  MODEL CONSISTENT POOR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
TRENDS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BY SATURDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  73  43  80 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251840
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL THEN BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND NORTHEAST TN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND
STABLE MID LEVELS... WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE TN
RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM
PATTERN EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO SETS
OF GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON MONDAY...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  PATTERN
CHANGE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.  A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR SCATTERED PRECIP.  ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS.  MODEL CONSISTENT POOR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
TRENDS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS BY SATURDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  78  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  73  43  80 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TRI
AREA.  THIS WILL PROVIDE LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z AT TRI.  OTHERWISE...OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TRI
AREA.  THIS WILL PROVIDE LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z AT TRI.  OTHERWISE...OVERALL WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251415
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD JUST
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WILL NOT PLAN TO UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  51  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  50  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  49  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG HAS LIFTED AND ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUD ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AROUND THE 5 KFT LEVEL AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE
CLOUD BASE WILL LIKELY LOWER AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY AT TRI WHERE
MVFR CIGS WILL BE FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251123
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
723 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG HAS LIFTED AND ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUD ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AROUND THE 5 KFT LEVEL AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THE
CLOUD BASE WILL LIKELY LOWER AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY AT TRI WHERE
MVFR CIGS WILL BE FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250645
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE DAY...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGHER 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW. CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY THAT
THE WARMING TREND OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE...REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 70S SOUTH AND CENTRAL TO MID/UPPER 60S NORTH. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...PEAKING IN THE EVENING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT/DRY
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM WANTS TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE THIN MOIST LAYER AND LACK OF LIFT. TONIGHT
WILL BE MILDER WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MIXING FROM LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WARM WEATHER STILL ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME 80S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY IN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY.
RIDGE PATTERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD... ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TO SPREAD
PRECIP OVER THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK. GFS AND ECMWF A BIT BETTER IN
LINE...SO BUMPED UP THE POPS TO INCLUDE SOME 40 AND 50 PERCENTS
WITH FROPA TUES NIGHT AND WED. TOSSED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WRAPAROUND POPS UP IN THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI.
BOTH MODELS HAVE COME INTO LINE WITH A COOL DOWN/REINFORCING FROPA
ON FRIDAY FOR A COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY TRICK OR TREATING
EVENING...WITH 5-10 MPH WINDS TOO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  51  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  50  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  49  72  42 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250507
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
107 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT TRI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH REGARDING HOW LOW IT WILL GO AS THERE ARE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS BEING SHOWN BY MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL GO ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE...AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR LIFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BE VFR AT ALL SITES. CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250118 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
918 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ITS WAKE...CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
GENERALLY AS OF 9 PM EDT. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL HOLDING IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S...AM NOT EXPECTING LOWS CRATER TOO MUCH TONIGHT...BUT
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TN/NC
MOUNTAINS AND IN SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHEAST TN. ELSEWHERE...LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FROST
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  74  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  68  48  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242315 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AT EACH TERMINAL UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
SOME MVFR FOG AT KTRI LATE TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SOME DENSER LIFR
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MAXES. WILL
GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE
RIDGE WILL STAY OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
BUT CURRENT MODELS PULL THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR A DRY
FRIDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  74  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  68  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AROUND TRI.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THEN...A BAND OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241430
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPS RISING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WILL NOT PLAN TO UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  46  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  37  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241430
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPS RISING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND
WILL NOT PLAN TO UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  46  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  37  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241108
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG AT TRI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE FOG/LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT BY
1430Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL SITES. FOG
COULD DEVELOP TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AT TRI...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240706
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE EAST
OF OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY KEEP
SOME CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT...WITH LOWS IN THER UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
GONNA BE GETTING WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 80 DEGREES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. RIDGE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TO SPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA
DURING MIDWEEK. BUT THIS COULD BE A WAIT-AND-SEE KIND OF PATTERN
CHANGE GIVEN THE ADVERTISED STRENGTH OF THE EARLY WEEK RIDGING...IT
MAY PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER AND HOLD OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES
LIKEWISE. SO...WHILE CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS WILL FILL THE FORECAST
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY... EXPECT SOME REFINEMENT OF THAT
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  46  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  44  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  37  69  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240518
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS FAVORABLE AT TRI TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL 2-4 DEGREES BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE. THERE
IS SOME CIRRUS TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...BUT IT SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL. WILL HAVE PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPO LIFR...RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z. CHA AND TYS WILL STAY
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED. CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. SON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM
THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST VA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID LEVEL
INVERSION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN BE LIMITED RESULTING IN JUST ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY. A PATTERN CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 232325
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WITH...MAINLY A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING CIRRUS CLOUDS. LATE NIGHT CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
IFR FOG FORMATION AT TRI. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE NW LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...WITH A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS OCCURRING OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
LIMITED RESULTING IN JUST ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY. A PATTERN CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...WITH A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHICH WAS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHWEST VA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS OCCURRING OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
LIMITED RESULTING IN JUST ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS FOR
TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY. A PATTERN CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  69  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231750 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...WILL REMAIN IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDTIONS VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231750 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...WILL REMAIN IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDTIONS VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND
NORTHEAST TN THIS MORNING...WHICH WERE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG MID
LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS INVERSION WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THUS...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLOUD COVER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

OVERALL...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REMOVE
THE FROST ADVISORY AND TO MENTION DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVER
SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231102 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
702 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT KTRI FROM LINGERING LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS...BUT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT BY
14-15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 230703
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...DENSE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT SKIRTED THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO LINGER
BENEATH THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE. THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN
THOSE AREAS...COMPLETELY DIMINISHING THE FROST THREAT. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A 925 MB RH ANALYSIS INDICATES THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY BREAKING UP BY MIDDAY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEATING REALLY KICKS IN. WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE
AXIS MOVING IN AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE 60S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL
AUTUMN AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER
TONIGHT...BUT HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...MAKING ANY FROST THREAT LOCALIZED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THUS...WILL HOLD
OF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING GENERALLY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...THEN
SOME TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WHICH LEADS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGING DURING THE EARLY
PERIODS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW SOME SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES
AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. GFSX AND ECMX MOS POPS TRENDING
UPWARD FOR DAY 7 (WEDNESDAY) SO I NUDGED POPS UP AMD INTRODUCED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH KEEPS OUR GRIDS IN LINE
WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

THE SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN GFSX MOS TEMPS FROM 12Z TO 00Z RUNS ARE
KINDA PUZZLING. HOWEVER...I DID MAKE SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND
MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING. JUST MINOR TWEAKS
OVERALL AS THE MONTH OF OCTOBER CLOSES OUT IN THE MORE TYPICAL DRY
FASHION. ENJOY THE STRETCH OF GREAT FALL WEATHER DAYS...AND LESS
CHILLY NIGHTS AS MIN TEMPS MODERATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TG





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