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000
FXUS64 KMRX 020029 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
829 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
OBSERVATIONS...WHICH ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST...AND MORE IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST 18Z MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS MOS...BUT WILL
LOWER TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS FOG POTENTIAL...BUT WILL KEEP
THE CURRENT MENTION OF FOG GOING NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 020029 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
829 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
OBSERVATIONS...WHICH ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST...AND MORE IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST 18Z MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS MOS...BUT WILL
LOWER TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS FOG POTENTIAL...BUT WILL KEEP
THE CURRENT MENTION OF FOG GOING NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 012333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE TAFS. FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER TONIGHT COMPARED
THE PERVIOUS NIGHTS AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER TODAY. DENSE
FOG DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL KEEP SOME
MVFR FOG AT TRI AS THE NEARBY LAKE MAY AID FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 012333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE TAFS. FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER TONIGHT COMPARED
THE PERVIOUS NIGHTS AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WERE LOWER TODAY. DENSE
FOG DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES...BUT WILL KEEP SOME
MVFR FOG AT TRI AS THE NEARBY LAKE MAY AID FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011905
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...QUITE A NICE AFTERNOON AFTER
SOME PESKY MORNING FOG DISSIPATED...WITH TEMPS RUNNING QUITE MILD IN
THE 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN
NEAR BODIES OF WATER. PLACED THE FOG IN THE GRIDS MAINLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AREA LAKES WITH 1/4 MILE VISBY POSSIBLE. THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LED ME TO GO CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER NAM MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT.

FOG GIVES WAY TO SUNNY SKIES AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PARTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SEND MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR THE GFS MOS
VALUES.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WILL PULLING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION
SUPPORTED BY A TROPOPAUSE FOLD HELPING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLO-
GENESIS WHICH RIDES QUICLY NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG
UPPER JET WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE DIRECT CIRCULATION WITH THE JET WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WITH STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

BEHIND UPPER JET/TROUGH AXIS...STRONG DRYING EXPECTED WITH A SHARP
END OF THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -1 TO -2
DEGREES C FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE MEDIMUM RANGE...GFS AND ECMWF HAVING A HARD TIME WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF WAVES MOVING DOWN IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  87  66  79 /   0  10  80 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  86  61  78 /   0  10  60 100
OAK RIDGE, TN                       54  85  62  78 /   0  10  60 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  84  55  78 /   0  10  20 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011905
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...QUITE A NICE AFTERNOON AFTER
SOME PESKY MORNING FOG DISSIPATED...WITH TEMPS RUNNING QUITE MILD IN
THE 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN
NEAR BODIES OF WATER. PLACED THE FOG IN THE GRIDS MAINLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AREA LAKES WITH 1/4 MILE VISBY POSSIBLE. THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LED ME TO GO CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
MILDER NAM MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT.

FOG GIVES WAY TO SUNNY SKIES AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PARTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SEND MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR THE GFS MOS
VALUES.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WILL PULLING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION
SUPPORTED BY A TROPOPAUSE FOLD HELPING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLO-
GENESIS WHICH RIDES QUICLY NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG
UPPER JET WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE DIRECT CIRCULATION WITH THE JET WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WITH STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

BEHIND UPPER JET/TROUGH AXIS...STRONG DRYING EXPECTED WITH A SHARP
END OF THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -1 TO -2
DEGREES C FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE MEDIMUM RANGE...GFS AND ECMWF HAVING A HARD TIME WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF WAVES MOVING DOWN IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  87  66  79 /   0  10  80 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  86  61  78 /   0  10  60 100
OAK RIDGE, TN                       54  85  62  78 /   0  10  60 100
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  84  55  78 /   0  10  20 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. FOG
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 02/06Z GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOING WITH PERSISTENCE WHICH GIVES TRI LIFR
CONDITION...AND BRIEF MVFR FOR CHA AND TYS.

OTHERWISE...BECOMING VFR AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS BY 15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT...BUT MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. FOG
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 02/06Z GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOING WITH PERSISTENCE WHICH GIVES TRI LIFR
CONDITION...AND BRIEF MVFR FOR CHA AND TYS.

OTHERWISE...BECOMING VFR AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS BY 15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS AND 13Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THE FOG IS GENERALLY DISSIPATING...ALTHO A FEW SPOTS ARE STILL
REPORTING AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE VISBY. WILL UPDATE THE ZFP PRODUCT TO
REMOVE ANY MORNING FOG...AND ALSO FRESHEN HOURLY GRIDS AND PRODUCTS
AS NEEDED AROUND 10 AM EDT.

OTHERWISE...12Z OHX AND RNK SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  59  86  66 /   0   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  57  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  56  85  64 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  50  84  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011331
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS AND 13Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THE FOG IS GENERALLY DISSIPATING...ALTHO A FEW SPOTS ARE STILL
REPORTING AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE VISBY. WILL UPDATE THE ZFP PRODUCT TO
REMOVE ANY MORNING FOG...AND ALSO FRESHEN HOURLY GRIDS AND PRODUCTS
AS NEEDED AROUND 10 AM EDT.

OTHERWISE...12Z OHX AND RNK SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  59  86  66 /   0   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  57  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  56  85  64 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  50  84  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011122
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A WARM AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AT . LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KTRI
...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA. OUTSIDE OF THE
MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT LEAST MVFR FOG LIKELY TONIGHT AGAIN AT KTRI.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010803
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
403 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THIS FRONT IN
LEE COUNTY VA AND ALSO SOME IN SW NC AND THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS EARLY TODAY. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER TODAY THEN SLOWLY WASHOUT TONIGHT AS A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SUNNY
SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE MET/NAM GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS FROM
CURRENT FORECAST AND AGAIN FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM/MET GUIDANCE. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM AGAIN...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY...OCT 2 RECORD
MAX AT TRI IS 85 IN 1986 AND WILL LIKELY BE MATCHED OR EXCEEDED.
STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN ROCKIES AND CATCHES UP WITH SOUTHERN
SHORT WAVE EARLY FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING JET EAST OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER DIGGING
JET SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN TN VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NATION
SPANNING N-S SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR NASHVILLE AROUND 03/12Z
FRIDAY MORNING. ONGOING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE MRX CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WHICH ARE FAVORABLE
WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THIS FAR EAST AS
CONVECTION ARRIVES. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BUT THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD STRONG CAA
BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TILTS NEGATIVELY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE AREAS. NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AN
IMPULSE IN THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON MONDAY AND
RECARVES THE UPPER TROUGH BACK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  59  86  66 /   0   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  57  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  56  85  64 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  50  84  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010803
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
403 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN STATES WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KY. SOME FOG HAS FORMED NEAR THIS FRONT IN
LEE COUNTY VA AND ALSO SOME IN SW NC AND THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY...BUT
OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS EARLY TODAY. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER TODAY THEN SLOWLY WASHOUT TONIGHT AS A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SUNNY
SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAYS HIGHS.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE MET/NAM GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE SO LOWERED MIN TEMPS FROM
CURRENT FORECAST AND AGAIN FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NAM/MET GUIDANCE. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL FORM AGAIN...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY...OCT 2 RECORD
MAX AT TRI IS 85 IN 1986 AND WILL LIKELY BE MATCHED OR EXCEEDED.
STRONG UPPER JET DIVES DOWN ROCKIES AND CATCHES UP WITH SOUTHERN
SHORT WAVE EARLY FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING JET EAST OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGER DIGGING
JET SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN TN VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. NATION
SPANNING N-S SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR NASHVILLE AROUND 03/12Z
FRIDAY MORNING. ONGOING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE MRX CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WHICH ARE FAVORABLE
WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THIS FAR EAST AS
CONVECTION ARRIVES. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
BUT THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD STRONG CAA
BEHIND FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH DIGS DEEPLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TILTS NEGATIVELY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE AREAS. NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AN
IMPULSE IN THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON MONDAY AND
RECARVES THE UPPER TROUGH BACK TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  59  86  66 /   0   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  57  86  64 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  56  85  64 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              83  50  84  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010516
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
116 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE TN RIVER VALLEY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL...WILL MENTION VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KTRI AGAIN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA SINCE THERE
WAS CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010516
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
116 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE TN RIVER VALLEY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL...WILL MENTION VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KTRI AGAIN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA SINCE THERE
WAS CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010115
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE TN RIVER VALLEY...AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY AIR MASS
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...AREA RADARS REVEAL NO PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT
DUE TO A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 700 AND 600 MB.

WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...IT
APPEARS IT WILL BE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WARM WATERWAYS. OVERALL...WILL PLAN TO UPDATE
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND TO TWEAK TEMPS A LITTLE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  86  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  83  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  84  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  82  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 302342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
740 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. IN FACT...AREA RADARS REVEAL NO PRECIP
WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 700 AND 600
MB. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE WARM WATERWAYS. OVERALL...WILL MENTION VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KTRI
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA
SINCE THERE WAS A GOOD BIT OF DRYING TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 302342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
740 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING
A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT. IN FACT...AREA RADARS REVEAL NO PRECIP
WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO A STRONG MID LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 700 AND 600
MB. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE WARM WATERWAYS. OVERALL...WILL MENTION VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KTRI
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHA
SINCE THERE WAS A GOOD BIT OF DRYING TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301842
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
242 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES IN PLACE SUPPORTING MOCLR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...
ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY REGION
WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND AROUND BODIES OF WATER...
MAINLY DURING THE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
THIS MORNING THOUGH...WITH SOME SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO RIDE OVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
STILL IN LINE AND WILL LEAN ACCORDINGLY. CONTINUANCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INFLUENCES WED THRU WED NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR MOCLR SKIES.
HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S SW VA TO MID 80S LOWER TN
VALLEY REGION. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
SW VA TO LOWER 60S LOWER TN VALLEY REGION. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER S CNTRL CANADA DEEPENS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO A
SFC LOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT THE TN VALLEY REGION IN A WAA PATTERN
WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SYSTEM MIGHT
BE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND HAVE
TAILORED WX AND EXPECTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH LOWS GENERALLY SPANNING
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF SHWR
AND SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ON FRI AS FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE LINE WITH
SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES. MAYBE SOME EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY ON FRI NIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE ROCKIES BUILDING INTO
THE MID STATE THRU THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
TN RIVER VALLEY ON MON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS AGAIN TO THE AREA
WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES AGAIN BUILDING INTO THE VALLEY BY THE MID
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE
NORMAL VALUES FROM THE WEEKEND THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  86  63  85  66 /   0   0   0  10  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  57  83  60  85  64 /   0   0   0  10  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  84  60  84  64 /   0   0   0  10  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  82  52  83  58 /   0   0   0  10  30
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
JBW/OHX









000
FXUS64 KMRX 301729 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
125 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WX THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...DROPPING ALL EAST TN SITES
TO IFR OR LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK. SUNSHINE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO
VFR AGAIN BY 01/15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

13/OHX









000
FXUS64 KMRX 301729 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
125 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR WX THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...DROPPING ALL EAST TN SITES
TO IFR OR LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK. SUNSHINE WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO
VFR AGAIN BY 01/15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

13/OHX








000
FXUS64 KMRX 301511 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MORNING PATHCY FOG WORDING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  59  86  63  85 /   0   0   0   0  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  57  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  56  84  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  50  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
JBW/OHX








000
FXUS64 KMRX 301511 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1111 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MORNING PATHCY FOG WORDING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  59  86  63  85 /   0   0   0   0  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  57  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  56  84  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  50  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
JBW/OHX









000
FXUS64 KMRX 301115
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY NW DURING THE DAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT. IFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF EARLY TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300821
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LAYER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. LAYER BECOMES DRIER AND THICKNESS VALUES RISE
SLIGHTLY. MILD WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY MORNING FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THURSDAY RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AS UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL US. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MS AND WESTERN TN VALLEY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM NOW
LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY AROUND 6Z SATURDAY.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WENT A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY
TO MID 60S TO MID 70S SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  57  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300821
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LAYER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. LAYER BECOMES DRIER AND THICKNESS VALUES RISE
SLIGHTLY. MILD WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY MORNING FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THURSDAY RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AS UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL US. LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WITH COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MS AND WESTERN TN VALLEY SPREADING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM NOW
LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY AROUND 6Z SATURDAY.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WENT A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE THURSDAY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY
TO MID 60S TO MID 70S SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM TO
CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  57  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300530
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALOFT ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300530
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EARLY MORNING IFR FOG
FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALOFT ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300100
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
900 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WARM WATERWAYS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...
AND WILL NOT PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  84  59  84 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  82  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  83  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  80  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300100
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
900 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE WARM WATERWAYS.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...
AND WILL NOT PLAN TO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  84  59  84 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  82  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  83  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  80  50  81 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 292337
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A FEW ALTO CU
AND SOME CU. THE PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG FORMATION. MVFR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AROUND
05-07Z WITH DETERIORATION INTO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT EACH
TERMINAL. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY EVEN DROP INTO AN VLIFR CATEGORY AT
TRI AROUND 08-12Z. WITH LIGHT WIND IN A HIGH PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT
TUESDAY MORNING...THE FOG MAY TAKE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TO
LIFT OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 292337
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A FEW ALTO CU
AND SOME CU. THE PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG FORMATION. MVFR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AROUND
05-07Z WITH DETERIORATION INTO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT EACH
TERMINAL. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY EVEN DROP INTO AN VLIFR CATEGORY AT
TRI AROUND 08-12Z. WITH LIGHT WIND IN A HIGH PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT
TUESDAY MORNING...THE FOG MAY TAKE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TO
LIFT OUT OF THE MVFR RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 291844
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
244 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE AREA. AS OF MID-AFTERNOON
ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE MERCURY TO CLIMB UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS.
THIS CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT /SOME PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE AROUND DAYBREAK/. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN THE ZONES...AND MAY NEED TO MONITOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONDITIONS BECOME APPARENT THAT IS IT WARRANTED.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

A S-SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING NRN AL/GA IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION AND POTENT 500 MB
VORT MAX WILL BRING LIKELY POPS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE FORCING SHOWN BY THE GFS
LOOKS STRONG...OVERNIGHT TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROBABLY MEAN A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO MOVE OUT PRECIP...AND THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
FASTER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW NEAR OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO
WILL GO DRY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  84  59  84 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  82  57  82 /  10  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  83  56  82 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  80  50  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291844
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
244 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE AREA. AS OF MID-AFTERNOON
ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE MERCURY TO CLIMB UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS.
THIS CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH THE
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT /SOME PERHAPS LOCALLY DENSE AROUND DAYBREAK/. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED THIS IN THE ZONES...AND MAY NEED TO MONITOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONDITIONS BECOME APPARENT THAT IS IT WARRANTED.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND PROMOTE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEYS...WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

A S-SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING NRN AL/GA IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION AND POTENT 500 MB
VORT MAX WILL BRING LIKELY POPS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE FORCING SHOWN BY THE GFS
LOOKS STRONG...OVERNIGHT TIMING AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
PROBABLY MEAN A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS TO MOVE OUT PRECIP...AND THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
FASTER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW NEAR OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR...SO
WILL GO DRY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  84  59  84 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  82  57  82 /  10  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       58  83  56  82 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  80  50  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291727 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR-LEVEL SCT/BKN DECKS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE THE SKY BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR BY
DUSK. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR
TO IFR FOG TO DEVELOP BY 03-06Z WHICH WILL PERSIST THOUGH DAYBREAK
AT EACH TERMINAL. SOME LOCALLY DENSE LIFR FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KTRI LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR THAT. AFTER 13-14Z...A
RETURN TO PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291419 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WILL USHER OUT THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE EROSION OF THE
LOW STRATUS SHIELD PRESENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THINK THAT THIS CLEARING WILL BE GRADUAL AND OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...SO HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUS IN THE UPDATE TO MOVE
THINGS ALONG TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SEEM LIKELY BY
21Z...AND POSSIBLY SOONER OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CREEP A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...SO HAVE BUMPED
THEN UP SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO
PULL POPS BACK AS WELL...AND TAPER THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  60  83  61 /  30  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  58  81  58 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  58  81  59 /  30  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              76  54  78  54 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291419 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND WILL USHER OUT THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...DRIER AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE EROSION OF THE
LOW STRATUS SHIELD PRESENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THINK THAT THIS CLEARING WILL BE GRADUAL AND OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...SO HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUS IN THE UPDATE TO MOVE
THINGS ALONG TOO QUICKLY. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SEEM LIKELY BY
21Z...AND POSSIBLY SOONER OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CREEP A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...SO HAVE BUMPED
THEN UP SLIGHTLY IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO
PULL POPS BACK AS WELL...AND TAPER THEM OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  60  83  61 /  30  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  58  81  58 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  58  81  59 /  30  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              76  54  78  54 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NE EARLY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
WILL CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NE EARLY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
WILL CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290653
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WEAK LIFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FOR A QUIET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.  MODELS
TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COULD SEE PRECIP PUSH IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOL
DRY AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             79  60  83  61 /  50  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  58  81  58 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  58  81  59 /  50  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              76  54  78  54 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290653
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
WEAK LIFT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FOR A QUIET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.  MODELS
TRENDING A BIT FASTER AND COULD SEE PRECIP PUSH IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOL
DRY AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             79  60  83  61 /  50  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  58  81  58 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  58  81  59 /  50  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              76  54  78  54 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN SW TO NE FLOW WILL
BRING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY.
CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BEYOND TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN SW TO NE FLOW WILL
BRING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY.
CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BEYOND TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON




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