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000
FXUS64 KMRX 070120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL REMOVE THE WORDING FROM
ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM DAYS OF RAINFALL
AND MORE RADIATION THAN WE`VE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE
SHOULD COOL TO NEAR SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MID DECK CLOUDS TO HINDER HEAT LOSS. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 070120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE DISSIPATED AND WILL REMOVE THE WORDING FROM
ZONES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM DAYS OF RAINFALL
AND MORE RADIATION THAN WE`VE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE
SHOULD COOL TO NEAR SATURATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MID DECK CLOUDS TO HINDER HEAT LOSS. THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 062316
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...IMPROVED FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LESS CONVECTION AROUND THANKS TO THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. THERE WILL
BE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FOG AND LOW CEILING FORMATION LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SATURATION. THERE COULD
BE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FLIGHT REDUCTIONS DURING THE PERIOD
FROM AROUND 08-12Z WITH IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 062316
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...IMPROVED FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LESS CONVECTION AROUND THANKS TO THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. THERE WILL
BE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FOG AND LOW CEILING FORMATION LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SATURATION. THERE COULD
BE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FLIGHT REDUCTIONS DURING THE PERIOD
FROM AROUND 08-12Z WITH IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 062316
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...IMPROVED FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LESS CONVECTION AROUND THANKS TO THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. THERE WILL
BE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FOG AND LOW CEILING FORMATION LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR SATURATION. THERE COULD
BE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FLIGHT REDUCTIONS DURING THE PERIOD
FROM AROUND 08-12Z WITH IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 061904
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
FOR TONIGHT...NEITHER THE RAP OR HRRR SHOW HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
OUR HEATING. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING.

TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. THE INCOMING FRONT TO OUR NORTH LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO GET PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING
ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS
PRODUCES A SW FLOW OVER THE MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER MS AND WEST TN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FARTHER FROM THE RIDGE. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO TX...A N-NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING SOME UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  91 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  87  70  88 /  20  30  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  87  69  88 /  20  30  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  85  66  87 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061904
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
FOR TONIGHT...NEITHER THE RAP OR HRRR SHOW HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
OUR HEATING. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING.

TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. THE INCOMING FRONT TO OUR NORTH LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO GET PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING
ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS
PRODUCES A SW FLOW OVER THE MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER MS AND WEST TN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FARTHER FROM THE RIDGE. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO TX...A N-NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING SOME UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  91 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  87  70  88 /  20  30  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  87  69  88 /  20  30  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  85  66  87 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061904
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
FOR TONIGHT...NEITHER THE RAP OR HRRR SHOW HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
OUR HEATING. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING.

TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. THE INCOMING FRONT TO OUR NORTH LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO GET PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING
ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS
PRODUCES A SW FLOW OVER THE MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER MS AND WEST TN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FARTHER FROM THE RIDGE. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO TX...A N-NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING SOME UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  91 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  87  70  88 /  20  30  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  87  69  88 /  20  30  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  85  66  87 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY CLEARED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO OUR NE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS DUE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHA
AND TYS MVFR BUT TAKING TRI DOWN TO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. FOG
CLEARS TOMORROW MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY CLEARED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO OUR NE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS DUE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHA
AND TYS MVFR BUT TAKING TRI DOWN TO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. FOG
CLEARS TOMORROW MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY CLEARED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO OUR NE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS DUE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHA
AND TYS MVFR BUT TAKING TRI DOWN TO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. FOG
CLEARS TOMORROW MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY CLEARED TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS OFF TO OUR NE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
TONIGHT...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT ALL THREE TERMINALS DUE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AND RECENT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP CHA
AND TYS MVFR BUT TAKING TRI DOWN TO IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. FOG
CLEARS TOMORROW MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061451
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1051 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK. UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THIS UPDATE WAS MOSTLY FOCUSED ON TRYING TO TWEAK
SKY COVER AND ANTICIPATE WHEN CLOUDS WOULD START THINNING. LATEST
VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS JUST BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NETN AND
SWVA HANGING ON TO CLOUDS THE LONGEST...AND POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. DID DECIDE TO PUT IN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEW ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS AND ALSO TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  63  85  67 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061451
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1051 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK. UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THIS UPDATE WAS MOSTLY FOCUSED ON TRYING TO TWEAK
SKY COVER AND ANTICIPATE WHEN CLOUDS WOULD START THINNING. LATEST
VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS JUST BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NETN AND
SWVA HANGING ON TO CLOUDS THE LONGEST...AND POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. DID DECIDE TO PUT IN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEW ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS AND ALSO TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  63  85  67 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061451
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1051 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK. UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THIS UPDATE WAS MOSTLY FOCUSED ON TRYING TO TWEAK
SKY COVER AND ANTICIPATE WHEN CLOUDS WOULD START THINNING. LATEST
VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS JUST BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NETN AND
SWVA HANGING ON TO CLOUDS THE LONGEST...AND POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. DID DECIDE TO PUT IN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEW ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS AND ALSO TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  63  85  67 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061451
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1051 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS MORNING AS ALL
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK. UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THIS UPDATE WAS MOSTLY FOCUSED ON TRYING TO TWEAK
SKY COVER AND ANTICIPATE WHEN CLOUDS WOULD START THINNING. LATEST
VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS JUST BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NETN AND
SWVA HANGING ON TO CLOUDS THE LONGEST...AND POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. DID DECIDE TO PUT IN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NEW ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY ADJUSTMENTS AND ALSO TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  63  85  67 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO VFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD
KEEP SITES VFR TODAY. SOME VCNTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AT TRI. TONIGHT MFVR FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 06Z AT TRI AND CLOSE TO 11Z AT TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO VFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD
KEEP SITES VFR TODAY. SOME VCNTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AT TRI. TONIGHT MFVR FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 06Z AT TRI AND CLOSE TO 11Z AT TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO VFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD
KEEP SITES VFR TODAY. SOME VCNTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AT TRI. TONIGHT MFVR FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 06Z AT TRI AND CLOSE TO 11Z AT TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061125
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
725 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO VFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER LOW SHOULD
KEEP SITES VFR TODAY. SOME VCNTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AT TRI. TONIGHT MFVR FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 06Z AT TRI AND CLOSE TO 11Z AT TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
353 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AFTER ANOTHER EVENING OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLASH FLOODING SHOWERS WERE JUST
ABOUT GONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
LINGERED IN A FEW SPOTS OVER NE TN AND SW VA. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS
LOCATED MOSTLY IN AREAS STILL RECEIVING SOME LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AREAWIDE. SOME DRIER
AIR WAS FINALLY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW THAT WAS STILL SPINNING NEAR
THE WV...KY...VA INTERSECTION. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
TN/VA BORDER WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY TODAY AND THE UPPER LOW
WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL WANT TO
KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN EXTREME NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z SO KEPT LIKELY POPS THERE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY.
CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY WITH ZONE ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND WARMS UP AS UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO SHIFT
EAST WHILE DRIER AIR MASS WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 NE WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER. NEAR AVERAGE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70.

MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS VALLEYS WITH
MORE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF NE TN FOR TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO THE WET
GROUND. SOME AREAS MAY SEE DENSE FOG BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP WORDING
PATCHY. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE FROM
CONVECTION MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...NORMAL
SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN AN ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING A RIDGE INTO THE AREA...HOLDING AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO KEEP US IN
A DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 TO 30
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  69  87  70 /  20  20  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  63  85  67 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND STILL ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AFTER SHOWERS
END AT TRI IN THE EARLY MORNING EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT TYS AND TRI AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING DEEP LAYER LOW SHOULD KEEP CHA WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND LESS
FOG. ALSO QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION MONDAY SO HAVE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 060533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND STILL ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AFTER SHOWERS
END AT TRI IN THE EARLY MORNING EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT TYS AND TRI AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING DEEP LAYER LOW SHOULD KEEP CHA WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND LESS
FOG. ALSO QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION MONDAY SO HAVE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND STILL ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AFTER SHOWERS
END AT TRI IN THE EARLY MORNING EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT TYS AND TRI AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING DEEP LAYER LOW SHOULD KEEP CHA WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND LESS
FOG. ALSO QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION MONDAY SO HAVE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 060533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND STILL ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AFTER SHOWERS
END AT TRI IN THE EARLY MORNING EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME
MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT TYS AND TRI AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS
BECOME SATURATED LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING DEEP LAYER LOW SHOULD KEEP CHA WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND LESS
FOG. ALSO QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION MONDAY SO HAVE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS AT TERMINALS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 060014
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
814 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...BEST TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH
THE ATMOSPHERIC SYSTEM DRIVING THE PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. FRESH...DEEP MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. KEPT POPS
RATHER HIGH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE VIEWING AREA WHILE
ALLOWING FOR TAPERING PROBABILITIES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AS SOME
DRIER AIR FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE WET HOLIDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  88  70  90 /  30  30  20  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  86  69  88 /  50  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  87  69  88 /  40  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  83  64  86 /  80  40  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 060014
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
814 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...BEST TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH
THE ATMOSPHERIC SYSTEM DRIVING THE PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. FRESH...DEEP MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. KEPT POPS
RATHER HIGH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE VIEWING AREA WHILE
ALLOWING FOR TAPERING PROBABILITIES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS AS SOME
DRIER AIR FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE WET HOLIDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  88  70  90 /  30  30  20  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  86  69  88 /  50  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  87  69  88 /  40  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  83  64  86 /  80  40  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 052356
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION AROUND...MAINLY AROUND TRI.
WOULD EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED LATE
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEP LAYER LOW
SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION ON MONDAY SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY TERMINALS WITH
PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
     MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 052356
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
756 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION AROUND...MAINLY AROUND TRI.
WOULD EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY FOG AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND 07-13Z AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED LATE
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEP LAYER LOW
SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION ON MONDAY SO HAVE NO
MENTION OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANY TERMINALS WITH
PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
     MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 051844
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...THERE WILL FINALLY BE SOME
CHANGE TO THE PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION DRIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND SOME DRYING WORKS INTO OUR AREA. WILL SEE QUITE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  WILL ALLOW FFA TO CONTINUE THROUGH TIME OF BEST
INSTABILITY AS SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.  TOMORROW
LOOKS TO BE MORE TYPICAL FOR SUMMER...WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE SO WILL STAY CLOSE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THINGS ARE STARTING TO TREND DRIER DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT WE COULD HAVE A FEW ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
DUE TO EARLIER HEATING/CLEARING ON MONDAY. HEATING COMBINED WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOKS
SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS
WE BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF CAPE IN PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG.
SHEAR IS RATHER LACKING THOUGH SO IT APPEARS THAT ONLY PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE....A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH THE SETTING SUN TUESDAY EVENING
AND ALLOWS FOR CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY THINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
THE NAM HAS SHOWN WEAK RIDGING TRYING TO STALL OUT AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE FRONT DOWN FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA. THE NEW 12Z RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS CLOSER TO
WHAT THE NAM IS SHOWING...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE TREND
CONTINUES. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WEDNESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AS
WELL AS RIDGING IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD UP THE WEAK FRONT TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE SAME PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THURSDAY. THOUGH
EVEN IF THE FRONT STAYS TO OUR NORTH WE WILL STILL HAVE CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW PULSE
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. FRIDAY THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST AND
RIDGING BUILDS FURTHER INTO OUR AREA AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THESE DAYS AS WELL ALONG WITH RISING
TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD BE GETTING BACK CLOSE TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  88  70  90 /  30  30  20  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  86  69  88 /  50  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  87  69  88 /  40  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  83  64  86 /  80  40  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE
SOME DRYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL INCLUDE VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON DURING TIME OF EXPECTED BEST INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME SHOWERS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS...THEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH FOG
AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 051720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE
SOME DRYING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL INCLUDE VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON DURING TIME OF EXPECTED BEST INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME SHOWERS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY WITH SHOWERS...THEN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH FOG
AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 051420
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...BEST SHOWERS COVERAGE CURRENTLY IS SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND WEATHER TO BETTER DEPICT THIS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...SO WILL ADJUST SKY A BIT AND ALSO BUMP UP
SOME TEMPS GIVEN ADDITIONAL INSOLATION. WILL LEAVE FFA AS IS FOR
NOW. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  68  88  70 /  80  40  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  66  84  67 /  90  50  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  66  84  67 /  90  40  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  65  82  64 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 051420
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...BEST SHOWERS COVERAGE CURRENTLY IS SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WILL ADJUST POPS
AND WEATHER TO BETTER DEPICT THIS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...SO WILL ADJUST SKY A BIT AND ALSO BUMP UP
SOME TEMPS GIVEN ADDITIONAL INSOLATION. WILL LEAVE FFA AS IS FOR
NOW. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  68  88  70 /  80  40  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  66  84  67 /  90  50  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  66  84  67 /  90  40  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  65  82  64 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 051136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TN THIS MORNING.
AS IT SHIFTS EAST SHOWERS  SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO IT. THIS WILL GIVE
THE EAST TN TAF SITES DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AT TYS AND CHA SO
HAVE TEMPORARY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES. LESS OF A CHANCE OF
STORMS AT TRI SO USED VICINITY REMARKS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AT CHA BY 00Z AND AT TYS LATE TONIGHT AT TRI LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LINGER AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC
STATES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TN THIS MORNING.
AS IT SHIFTS EAST SHOWERS  SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO IT. THIS WILL GIVE
THE EAST TN TAF SITES DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AT TYS AND CHA SO
HAVE TEMPORARY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES. LESS OF A CHANCE OF
STORMS AT TRI SO USED VICINITY REMARKS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AT CHA BY 00Z AND AT TYS LATE TONIGHT AT TRI LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LINGER AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC
STATES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TN THIS MORNING.
AS IT SHIFTS EAST SHOWERS  SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO IT. THIS WILL GIVE
THE EAST TN TAF SITES DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AT TYS AND CHA SO
HAVE TEMPORARY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES. LESS OF A CHANCE OF
STORMS AT TRI SO USED VICINITY REMARKS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AT CHA BY 00Z AND AT TYS LATE TONIGHT AT TRI LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LINGER AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC
STATES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS TN THIS MORNING.
AS IT SHIFTS EAST SHOWERS  SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO IT. THIS WILL GIVE
THE EAST TN TAF SITES DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AT TYS AND CHA SO
HAVE TEMPORARY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES. LESS OF A CHANCE OF
STORMS AT TRI SO USED VICINITY REMARKS. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AT CHA BY 00Z AND AT TYS LATE TONIGHT AT TRI LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LINGER AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC
STATES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050734
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND EAST CENTRAL TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES WITH ACTUAL MEASURED AMOUNTS MOSTLY ONE HALF INCH PER
HOUR AND 1 TO 1.3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LAST 3 HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVING OUT OF AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TN THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL
INCHES THIS WEEK BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PATH OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LOW OR SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING MORE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHERN AND THEN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE RAIN BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST SUNSET TONIGHT. IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
COOL ONE MORE DAY...MOSTLY 70S WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTHEAST.
THE CHATTANOOGA AREA WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LOW THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.  LIKELY POPS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST LOCATIONS AS
IT PULLS AWAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW
WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN.  WITH SUNSHINE AND RECENT RAINS...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY.  THE
NAM BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS HAS ZONAL FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE NAM SOLUTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S AT
LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE GFS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...EITHER ONE WILL ALLOW
DIURNAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE CURRENT GFS RUN
DIFFERS FROM PRIOR RUNS AS NOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS
DOES BEGINS TO BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE WELL
IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL THE MODEL
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO.  THIS WILL BRING ON A MINOR WARMING TREND WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  68  88  70 /  80  40  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  66  84  67 /  90  50  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  66  84  67 /  90  40  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  82  64 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050734
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS
MIDDLE TN HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TN AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND EAST CENTRAL TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UP TO ABOUT ONE INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES WITH ACTUAL MEASURED AMOUNTS MOSTLY ONE HALF INCH PER
HOUR AND 1 TO 1.3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LAST 3 HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVING OUT OF AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TN THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL
INCHES THIS WEEK BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PATH OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LOW OR SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING MORE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHERN AND THEN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE RAIN BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST SUNSET TONIGHT. IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWER THAN MODELS
SUGGEST THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
COOL ONE MORE DAY...MOSTLY 70S WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTHEAST.
THE CHATTANOOGA AREA WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER 80S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE LOW THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.  LIKELY POPS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHEAST LOCATIONS AS
IT PULLS AWAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW
WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN.  WITH SUNSHINE AND RECENT RAINS...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY.  THE
NAM BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
GFS HAS ZONAL FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE NAM SOLUTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S AT
LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE GFS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...EITHER ONE WILL ALLOW
DIURNAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE CURRENT GFS RUN
DIFFERS FROM PRIOR RUNS AS NOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS
DOES BEGINS TO BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE WELL
IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW UNTIL THE MODEL
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO.  THIS WILL BRING ON A MINOR WARMING TREND WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  68  88  70 /  80  40  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  66  84  67 /  90  50  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  66  84  67 /  90  40  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  82  64 /  90  70  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING
WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST
TN WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE TYS VICINITY.
THEN SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TN LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
BRIEFLY IMPROVE AT CHA NEXT FEW HOURS THEN ALL AREAS WILL HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL AROUND 15Z. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
CEILINGS WILL STAY MOSTLY MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AT CHA BY 00Z AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT
STAY MVFR AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING
WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST
TN WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN AREAS TO THE TYS VICINITY.
THEN SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST TN LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
BRIEFLY IMPROVE AT CHA NEXT FEW HOURS THEN ALL AREAS WILL HAVE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL AROUND 15Z. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
CEILINGS WILL STAY MOSTLY MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AT CHA BY 00Z AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS NE INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT
STAY MVFR AT TYS AND TRI THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042357
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
757 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER MEMPHIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE CONFINED MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY CLOSE TO 10-11 PM EDT. SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE INTO KNOXVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND TRI CITIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

TWEAKED SHORT-TERM FORECAST TO TRIM BACK POPS AREA WIDE UNTIL AFTER
03Z. THIS ALSO AFFECTED THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH 2AM...EXPECTING
LESS..WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW VA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  81  68  86 /  80  80  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  79  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  78  66  85 /  80  80  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  79  65  81 /  80  80  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS OVER ALABAMA WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN AREAS FIRST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
CEILINGS AND VSBY OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY AT KCHA AND KTRI. LOOK FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...PERSISTENT PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT OVER OUR AREA
DURING THE PERIOD.  SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER.  WILL CARRY CAT POPS BOTH PERIODS. GIVEN HOW
WET THE GROUND IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS.  MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE...SO JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID STATE
SPINS OVERHEAD. BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LOW WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY. CLEARING WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING FIRST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS WHILE NETN AND SWVA MAY NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SAME APPLIES TO PRECIP CHANCES. OUR NE
AREAS WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIP THE LONGEST...LIKELY THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY.
THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF THE RETURNING
SUNSHINE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT HANGING AROUND FROM THE LOW.
NONETHELESS...MONDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR
MOST AREAS TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY THAT WILL GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. THE SHORT LIVED DRY STREAK ENDS
ABRUPTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REENTER AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR
NORTH BUT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THINGS ARE LOOKING DRIER AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  81  68  86 /  80  80  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  79  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  78  66  85 /  80  80  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  79  65  81 /  80  80  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...PERSISTENT PATTERN
CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT OVER OUR AREA
DURING THE PERIOD.  SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER.  WILL CARRY CAT POPS BOTH PERIODS. GIVEN HOW
WET THE GROUND IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS.  MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE...SO JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID STATE
SPINS OVERHEAD. BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LOW WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS
AWAY. CLEARING WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING FIRST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS WHILE NETN AND SWVA MAY NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SAME APPLIES TO PRECIP CHANCES. OUR NE
AREAS WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIP THE LONGEST...LIKELY THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY.
THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF THE RETURNING
SUNSHINE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT HANGING AROUND FROM THE LOW.
NONETHELESS...MONDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR
MOST AREAS TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY THAT WILL GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. THE SHORT LIVED DRY STREAK ENDS
ABRUPTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REENTER AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR
NORTH BUT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THINGS ARE LOOKING DRIER AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  81  68  86 /  80  80  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  79  67  85 /  80  80  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  78  66  85 /  80  80  40  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  79  65  81 /  80  80  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
PERIOD...SO LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW
OVERALL...SO WILL MOSTLY KEEP OUT OF TAFS. DETAILS STILL HARD TO
PINPOINT...SO WENT WITH GENERAL TRENDS SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS. FOR
NOW TOOK CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN MVFR...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
LOWER CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT AT LEAST BRIEFLY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 041726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE
PERIOD...SO LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW
OVERALL...SO WILL MOSTLY KEEP OUT OF TAFS. DETAILS STILL HARD TO
PINPOINT...SO WENT WITH GENERAL TRENDS SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS. FOR
NOW TOOK CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN MVFR...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
LOWER CONDITIONS AT SOME POINT AT LEAST BRIEFLY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 041410
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AGAIN...BUT AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESTRICT HEATING AND INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THUNDER. WILL JUST TWEAK TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WIND IN THE DATABASE. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 041410
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY GENERALLY APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AGAIN...BUT AGAIN LOOKS
LIKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESTRICT HEATING AND INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THUNDER. WILL JUST TWEAK TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WIND IN THE DATABASE. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041139
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR SITES WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND MID
AFTERNOON TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DROP VSBY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES. LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL BE
MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT STARTING FROM 03-06Z AND CONTINUEING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
354 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NOT AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FRIDAY AND AMOUNTS ARE LOWER
THAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT STILL OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. STATIONARY FRONT STILL LIES TO THE NORTH WITH UPPER
TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR
AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH KANSAS INTO THE
TROUGH AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING FROM OK THROUGH AR
INTO MS AND AL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN COULD FALL WHICH WOULD
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND
PLATEAU. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LIKE FRIDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT
NORTHEAST AREA COULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO HAVE POPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THERE.

.LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. MODELS BRING AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS. MODELS SLOWLY PULL THE LOW OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...NAM GENERALLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY MONDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY CONDITIONS
...THOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. UNSETTLE
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY...THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  69  82  68 /  80  70  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  67  80  66 /  80  70  70  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  67  80  66 /  70  60  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  65  77  63 /  70  50  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040524
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. KTRI HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING OFF AND ON AGAIN SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND GA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH NEAR KCHA AND
KTYS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWER ATMOSPHERE
MIXED ENOUGH WHERE VSBY WILL BE ONLY AFFECTED BY SHOWERS PASSING
OVER TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR KTYS AND KCHA WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING AND AROUND MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




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