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000
FXUS64 KMRX 052123 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
423 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND AREA OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD
DEAL OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH/END THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INCLUDED A LATE AFTERNOON SECTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             20  42  26  58 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  15  39  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       14  38  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              11  36  21  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 052123 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
423 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND AREA OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GOOD
DEAL OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH/END THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HAVE INCLUDED A LATE AFTERNOON SECTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             20  42  26  58 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  15  39  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       14  38  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              11  36  21  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 052039
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
328 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL
SNOW MELT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING. RUNOFF
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE FLOODING PROBLEMS. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD ICING SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS.  WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DROP TO BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FREEZING FOG FORMATION...MAINLY ALONG WATERWAYS.
THIS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE ROAD CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL GET OFF
TO A COLD START WITH MANY AREAS ONLY BRIEFLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... WE START THE LONG
TERM OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. DRY AIR BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS
WILL WARM UP NICELY WITH MANY LOCATIONS HAVING HIGHS IN THE 50`S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PIN POINTING
WHERE TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH
MID WEEK. MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US, BUT
EDGE OF PRECIP COULD SNEAK INTO OUR CWA. SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO
TRIM BACK IN SOME PERIODS ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
BUT THE BEST NEWS ABOUT THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IS THAT TEMPS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ALL LIQUID. HOORAY!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             20  42  26  58 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  15  39  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       14  38  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              11  36  21  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 052039
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
328 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. ADDITIONAL
SNOW MELT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING. RUNOFF
WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE FLOODING PROBLEMS. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION UNDERWAY AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD ICING SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A HAZARDOUS
ROAD CONDITIONS.  WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DROP TO BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FREEZING FOG FORMATION...MAINLY ALONG WATERWAYS.
THIS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE ROAD CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL GET OFF
TO A COLD START WITH MANY AREAS ONLY BRIEFLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... WE START THE LONG
TERM OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. DRY AIR BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPS
WILL WARM UP NICELY WITH MANY LOCATIONS HAVING HIGHS IN THE 50`S
OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PIN POINTING
WHERE TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP THROUGH
MID WEEK. MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF US, BUT
EDGE OF PRECIP COULD SNEAK INTO OUR CWA. SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO
TRIM BACK IN SOME PERIODS ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
BUT THE BEST NEWS ABOUT THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IS THAT TEMPS REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ALL LIQUID. HOORAY!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             20  42  26  58 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  15  39  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       14  38  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              11  36  21  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING
AND CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT MVFR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY THIS EVENING
AND CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT MVFR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051545
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODEST QPF EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDED FLOOD AREAS AND
LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS SLIDE OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE
E TN VALLEY. WARNING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE ALONG PLATEAU WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
REMAIN IN FLUX ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF FREEZING LINE. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MARION-MORGAN-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THIS
MORNING.  ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.  PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
620 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THIS
MORNING.  ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.  PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SNOW MELT COMBINED WITH ONGOING
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA CONTINUES TO CAUSE HIGH RIVER LEVELS
AND LOCAL FLOODING.  VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT.  COOLER AIR MOVING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING
THE DAY...AND AS READING DROP BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT SHOULD SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY.  MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE
THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION.  AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH.  MUCH COLDER AIR ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL CHANGE
RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE.  ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY...WHILE
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND UP TO WISE COUNTY VA.  THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...AS THE COLD AIR OVERTAKES THE WARM AIR ALOFT...FREEZING RAIN
WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN PLATEAU UP TO SOUTHWEST
VA...AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TN VALLEY AND LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON...BUT SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME AND MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR AS WELL.  FORECAST
CONFIDENCE STARTS OUT HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT SLIPS BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND.  A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MOST
LIKELY MAINLY RAIN IF IT OCCURS...SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POP. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING OF NEXT
SYSTEM...WITH ECMWF AROUND TUESDAY AND GFS MAINLY WEDNESDAY.  FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WELL.  THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
ALL RAIN AGAIN GIVEN EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             36  21  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  17  39  23 / 100  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  17  42  23 / 100  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  14  38  20 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-
     MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050623
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO FREEING RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS...BECOMING SLEET OR SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050623
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO FREEING RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS...BECOMING SLEET OR SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050623
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF ACROSS THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN TOWARDS
SUNRISE...COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING.  RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO FREEING RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS...BECOMING SLEET OR SNOW LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  PRECIP SHOULD END
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050323 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NAM MODEL AND LATEST RAP SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. THUS...THE WINTRY
WEATHER TIMING LOOKS GOOD...SO I UPDATED THE WSW PRODUCT.

MUCH OF THE RECENT HOUR OR TWO SPENT UPDATING THE FLOOD WATCH AND
ASSOCIATED RIVER FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...PLAN TO FRESHEN THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ANY AFFECTED
PRODUCTS BY 11 PM EST OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050323 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1023 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE NAM MODEL AND LATEST RAP SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. THUS...THE WINTRY
WEATHER TIMING LOOKS GOOD...SO I UPDATED THE WSW PRODUCT.

MUCH OF THE RECENT HOUR OR TWO SPENT UPDATING THE FLOOD WATCH AND
ASSOCIATED RIVER FLOOD WARNING PRODUCTS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...PLAN TO FRESHEN THE HOURLY GRIDS AND ANY AFFECTED
PRODUCTS BY 11 PM EST OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050014 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 AND I-81. SPOTTY HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING FROM
NE AL INTO SE TN AT THIS TIME.

VERY MILD TEMPS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW POINT TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED
ON 7PM EST VALUES.

PLAN TO UPDATE AGAIN TOWARD 1030 OR 11 PM EST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050014 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 AND I-81. SPOTTY HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING FROM
NE AL INTO SE TN AT THIS TIME.

VERY MILD TEMPS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...AND HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEW POINT TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARDS...BY SEVERAL DEGREES BASED
ON 7PM EST VALUES.

PLAN TO UPDATE AGAIN TOWARD 1030 OR 11 PM EST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
651 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EDGING INTO GREAT VALLEY THIS EVENING. DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING IFR CATEGORY.
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP AWAITING THE
COLDEST AIR SPILLING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041805
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
105 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT FUSED UPDATE FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINIA. PRESSURE GRADIENT PACKING
ALONG NORTHWEST PART OF MRX CWA HAS LED TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BEFORE SHIGFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  22  46 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  17  42 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041805
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
105 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT FUSED UPDATE FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINIA. PRESSURE GRADIENT PACKING
ALONG NORTHWEST PART OF MRX CWA HAS LED TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY BEFORE SHIGFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  22  46 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  18  41 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  17  42 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THURSDAY THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SW BUT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT TRI. CIGS WILL BE IFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VSBYS WILL LOWER
TO IFR DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041626
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1126 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
ALSO EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SW
VA AND HANCOCK CO TN. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION BY EARLY THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  34  37  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  32  35  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  30  33  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  32  35  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041626
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1126 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
ALSO EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SW
VA AND HANCOCK CO TN. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION BY EARLY THU.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  34  37  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  32  35  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  30  33  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  32  35  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041508
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER JET RETROGRADING SOME TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP MOIST WARM LAYER OVER THE EAST TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CURRENT LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING WESTERN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY.

HEADLINE PRODUCES LOOK GOOD. MAIN THREAT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA.

WINTER WATCH AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. WINTRY MIX TRANSITION
STILL ON TRACK WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. SLEET TO
SNOW SHOULD DOMINATE MORNING HOURS...WITH BETTER ICE THREAT
NORTHWEST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 041508
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER JET RETROGRADING SOME TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP MOIST WARM LAYER OVER THE EAST TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. CURRENT LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING WESTERN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TODAY.

HEADLINE PRODUCES LOOK GOOD. MAIN THREAT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA.

WINTER WATCH AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. WINTRY MIX TRANSITION
STILL ON TRACK WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY. SLEET TO
SNOW SHOULD DOMINATE MORNING HOURS...WITH BETTER ICE THREAT
NORTHWEST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041128
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT.
SOME LOW CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
LOWERING CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET STILL QUITE STRONG
EARLY NORTHEAST...SO WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TRI FOR A
FEW HOURS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040828
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.  STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND 850MB JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST AIR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WARM AIR
ALOFT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE
ASSOCIATED RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR AND WHEN WILL THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN TO SNOW OCCUR.  ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY IN
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  BY THE
END OF THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW EXITING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MAYBE LEE AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA THAT
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING.  THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
PRECIP FREE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.  EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL.  MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AND CARRY LOW POPS ON
TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040828
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.  STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND 850MB JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST AIR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WARM AIR
ALOFT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE
ASSOCIATED RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR AND WHEN WILL THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN TO SNOW OCCUR.  ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY IN
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  BY THE
END OF THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW EXITING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MAYBE LEE AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA THAT
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING.  THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
PRECIP FREE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.  EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL.  MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AND CARRY LOW POPS ON
TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 040828
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.  STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND 850MB JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS...WARM AND MOIST AIR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA TODAY.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WARM AIR
ALOFT WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE
ASSOCIATED RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF THE
COLD AIR AND WHEN WILL THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN TO SNOW OCCUR.  ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE MORNING...THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN EARLY IN
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  BY THE
END OF THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WITH
THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW EXITING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MAYBE LEE AND WISE COUNTIES IN VA THAT
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW.  THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING.  THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA...CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
PRECIP FREE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.  EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS WELL.  MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING.  FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY AND CARRY LOW POPS ON
TUESDAY...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  37  38  22 /  80  90 100  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  35  36  18 /  80  90 100  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  33  34  18 /  80  90 100  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  33  33  17 /  80  90 100  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1234 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE. SHOWERS
AROUND AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND AGAIN LATE. SOME LOW
CIGS/VIS TO START...THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOWERING
CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATE. LOW LEVEL JET QUITE STRONG EARLY...AND WILL
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 040314 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET IS PULLING MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT...PER GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 040314 AAB
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER JET IS PULLING MILD AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
OVERNIGHT...PER GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 040018 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
718 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST LOWS AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AREA-
WIDE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ALSO...MADE
SOME CHANGES TO THURSDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO CONTINUE TO DROP AS ARCTIC AIR
SPILLS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 032359
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
659 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS USUAL WITH TERMINALS LOCATED IN A
VALLEY. CEILINGS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CAN HAVE SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
OF VARIANCE WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PERIODICALLY HAVING GREATER
INFLUENCE. DEEP MOISTURE RIDING OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. WARM FRONT
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTH.
PLACED SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL FORECAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRESSES FARTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 032036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S NORTHEAST
HALF TO THE 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BECOME STEADY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND WESTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND CHANGE
LITTLE AND POSSIBLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL INCH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STRONG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THESE
AREAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY STRONG. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NW BORDER. AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE KY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MESSY WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. HARDEST HIT
AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...THUS NW PLATEAU AND
SW VA ESPECIALLY LEE AND WISE COUNTIES THERE. AMOUNTS OF WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.. AND TODAY/S
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THAT ARRIVAL...COULD BE A TREND. SO
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PRECIP WANES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS AROUND
CHA/TYS/TRI WILL BE NOTABLY IMPACTED IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL INCLUDE THOSE METRO
AREAS...BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE EVENT ENDS THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE END OF THE MONDAY/TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/GC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 032036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S NORTHEAST
HALF TO THE 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BECOME STEADY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND WESTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND CHANGE
LITTLE AND POSSIBLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL INCH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STRONG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THESE
AREAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY STRONG. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NW BORDER. AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE KY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MESSY WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. HARDEST HIT
AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...THUS NW PLATEAU AND
SW VA ESPECIALLY LEE AND WISE COUNTIES THERE. AMOUNTS OF WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.. AND TODAY/S
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THAT ARRIVAL...COULD BE A TREND. SO
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PRECIP WANES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS AROUND
CHA/TYS/TRI WILL BE NOTABLY IMPACTED IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL INCLUDE THOSE METRO
AREAS...BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE EVENT ENDS THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE END OF THE MONDAY/TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 031735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS INCREASING TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL STAY LOW AT CHA AND LOWER AT TYS AND TRI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CIGS/VIS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS...POSSIBLY
LOWER WITH SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 031735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS INCREASING TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL STAY LOW AT CHA AND LOWER AT TYS AND TRI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CIGS/VIS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS...POSSIBLY
LOWER WITH SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS INCREASING TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL STAY LOW AT CHA AND LOWER AT TYS AND TRI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CIGS/VIS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS...POSSIBLY
LOWER WITH SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 031735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1235 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS INCREASING TONIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL STAY LOW AT CHA AND LOWER AT TYS AND TRI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CIGS/VIS WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS...POSSIBLY
LOWER WITH SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1046 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LIES OFF
THE EAST COAST AND IS STAYING STRONG ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING ONLY VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SO FAR TODAY WITH ONLY VERY SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REPORTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE CLOUDY
SKIES AND SLOW WARMING INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS
COMING LATE AS WARMER AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED HIGHS
DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH AND LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE MOST AREAS
BUT INCREASED THEM LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO
THE LOWS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATE. ADJUSTED 6 HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TOO. WILL UPDATE FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY WITH NO
CHANGES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 031546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1046 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LIES OFF
THE EAST COAST AND IS STAYING STRONG ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING ONLY VERY
LIGHT RETURNS SO FAR TODAY WITH ONLY VERY SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
REPORTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE CLOUDY
SKIES AND SLOW WARMING INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS
COMING LATE AS WARMER AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED HIGHS
DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH AND LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE MOST AREAS
BUT INCREASED THEM LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO
THE LOWS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN LATE. ADJUSTED 6 HOURLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TOO. WILL UPDATE FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY WITH NO
CHANGES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
626 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP
TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS. MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN
THE PERIOD...SO WILL INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
626 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP
TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS. MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN
THE PERIOD...SO WILL INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 031126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
626 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP
TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS. MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN
THE PERIOD...SO WILL INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 031126
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
626 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP
TO AT LEAST MVFR/IFR LEVELS. MAY SEE A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN
THE PERIOD...SO WILL INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 030750
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR
THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.  LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT WILL UNDERCUT
MOS POPS TO KEEP THINGS LIKELY BOTH PERIODS.  ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO GO CATEGORICAL IN NORTHERN PLATEAU CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.  WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPS. WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS/RUNS WITH MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT WARMER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. A FEW
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS ANOTHER BLAST OF
COLD AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE COLD...DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  56  63  34 /  70  70  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  53  60  31 /  70  70  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  51  59  30 /  70  70  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  48  57  28 /  70  70  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 030750
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR
THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.  LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT WILL UNDERCUT
MOS POPS TO KEEP THINGS LIKELY BOTH PERIODS.  ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO GO CATEGORICAL IN NORTHERN PLATEAU CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.  WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPS. WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS/RUNS WITH MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT WARMER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. A FEW
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS ANOTHER BLAST OF
COLD AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE COLD...DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  56  63  34 /  70  70  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  53  60  31 /  70  70  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  51  59  30 /  70  70  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  48  57  28 /  70  70  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 030750
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR
THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.  LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT WILL UNDERCUT
MOS POPS TO KEEP THINGS LIKELY BOTH PERIODS.  ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO GO CATEGORICAL IN NORTHERN PLATEAU CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.  WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPS. WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS/RUNS WITH MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT WARMER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. A FEW
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS ANOTHER BLAST OF
COLD AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE COLD...DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  56  63  34 /  70  70  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  53  60  31 /  70  70  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  51  59  30 /  70  70  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  48  57  28 /  70  70  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 030750
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR
THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.  LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT WILL UNDERCUT
MOS POPS TO KEEP THINGS LIKELY BOTH PERIODS.  ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TO GO CATEGORICAL IN NORTHERN PLATEAU CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.  WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPS. WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS/RUNS WITH MODELS
TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT WARMER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT
OVERALL...SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE
EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. A FEW
POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS ANOTHER BLAST OF
COLD AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S. THE COLD...DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  56  63  34 /  70  70  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  53  60  31 /  70  70  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  51  59  30 /  70  70  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              55  48  57  28 /  70  70  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

MJB/LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 030532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP TO AT
LEAST MVFR LEVELS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL
INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 030532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP TO AT
LEAST MVFR LEVELS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL
INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 030532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP TO AT
LEAST MVFR LEVELS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL
INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 030532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1232 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN AROUND AT TIMES...AND CIGS/VIS WILL DROP TO AT
LEAST MVFR LEVELS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL
INCLUDE AT ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 022339
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CEILINGS WILL START TO COME DOWN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE, VISIBILITIES ARE A LITTLE BIT
TRICKIER, BUT THINK THAT INCOMING CLOUDS COULD KEEP BACK FALLING
TEMPS AND FOG...BUT WILL ACTIVELY MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST
AS NEEDED. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE AREA,
STARTING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THEN FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 022339
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CEILINGS WILL START TO COME DOWN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE, VISIBILITIES ARE A LITTLE BIT
TRICKIER, BUT THINK THAT INCOMING CLOUDS COULD KEEP BACK FALLING
TEMPS AND FOG...BUT WILL ACTIVELY MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST
AS NEEDED. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE AREA,
STARTING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THEN FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 022339
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CEILINGS WILL START TO COME DOWN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE, VISIBILITIES ARE A LITTLE BIT
TRICKIER, BUT THINK THAT INCOMING CLOUDS COULD KEEP BACK FALLING
TEMPS AND FOG...BUT WILL ACTIVELY MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST
AS NEEDED. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE AREA,
STARTING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THEN FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 022339
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CEILINGS WILL START TO COME DOWN OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE, VISIBILITIES ARE A LITTLE BIT
TRICKIER, BUT THINK THAT INCOMING CLOUDS COULD KEEP BACK FALLING
TEMPS AND FOG...BUT WILL ACTIVELY MONITOR AND UPDATE THE FORECAST
AS NEEDED. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE AREA,
STARTING AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THEN FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

ABM





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