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000
FXUS64 KMRX 300704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TRI-CITY AND KNOXVILLE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING
PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITHIN THE
LONG WAVE UPPER PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AND THEN
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  59  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  58  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  82  59 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 300704
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT.

ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TRI-CITY AND KNOXVILLE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING
PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITHIN THE
LONG WAVE UPPER PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AND THEN
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  59  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  58  83  62 /   0  10   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  52  82  59 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 300507
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
107 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF STEAM FOG OFF BOONE
LAKE. CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES AT 3
MILES WITH SCATTERED 200 FEET. HOWEVER...MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z.

BESIDES THE FOG DEVELOPMENT...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS A DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300507
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
107 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF STEAM FOG OFF BOONE
LAKE. CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES AT 3
MILES WITH SCATTERED 200 FEET. HOWEVER...MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z.

BESIDES THE FOG DEVELOPMENT...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS A DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 7KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPS. RECORDS
FOR JULY 30 INCLUDE:

CHA 58/1969...TYS 58/1874 AND TRI 56/2013

ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO TWEAK SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPS...AND DEW
POINTS A BIT. WILL ALSO ADD NEAR RECORD LOW WORDING TO ZFP. UPDATE
OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
919 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPS. RECORDS
FOR JULY 30 INCLUDE:

CHA 58/1969...TYS 58/1874 AND TRI 56/2013

ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO TWEAK SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPS...AND DEW
POINTS A BIT. WILL ALSO ADD NEAR RECORD LOW WORDING TO ZFP. UPDATE
OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SHOULD
BE VFR WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR VIS AT TRI FOR A SEVERAL HOURS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SHOULD
BE VFR WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE AT TRI. WILL
INCLUDE MVFR VIS AT TRI FOR A SEVERAL HOURS...AND LOWER CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER CHILLY JULY NIGHT IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS THE
STRATO CU DISSIPATES AND WINDSPEED DIMINISHES. THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. STAYED JUST UNDER MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
NORTH. SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY WARM INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONGER TERM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY AND ALSO BY A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUNS IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH SHOULD TAKE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ANOTHER CHILLY JULY NIGHT IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS THE
STRATO CU DISSIPATES AND WINDSPEED DIMINISHES. THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD EXPECT MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE DAY. STAYED JUST UNDER MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
NORTH. SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY WARM INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE LONGER TERM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY BUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY AND ALSO BY A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE TROUGH.

THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUNS IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH SHOULD TAKE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  85  62  86 /   0   0  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  81  61  85 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              52  79  52  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SOME SC ACROSS THE GREAT
VALLEY. SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
LATE TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG DETERIORATING TO IFR AT
TRI BUT VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE FROM 13Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 291429
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE AROUND 85H AND SOME LIFT WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE CAPE WITH RATHER DECENT LAPSE RATES.
SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SOME OF THE TERRAIN AREAS. THE
CLOUDS MAY EVEN TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS
WITH GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE TERRAIN. WILL MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPDATE.

&&


.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 291429
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MOISTURE AROUND 85H AND SOME LIFT WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS
GENERATING SOME CLOUDS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SHOWER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE CAPE WITH RATHER DECENT LAPSE RATES.
SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SOME OF THE TERRAIN AREAS. THE
CLOUDS MAY EVEN TRIM A DEGREE OR TWO OFF FORECAST MAX TEMPS
WITH GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE TERRAIN. WILL MAKE THESE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE UPDATE.

&&


.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 291114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED
IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 290701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED
IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290536
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AT KTRI TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
921 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SPINS
FAR TO THE NORTH. DRIER FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND
SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. DROPPED
LOWS A DEGREE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
921 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SPINS
FAR TO THE NORTH. DRIER FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND
SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. DROPPED
LOWS A DEGREE IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 282346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NE TN...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AVIATION SITES VFR EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT TRI TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 282346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NE TN...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AVIATION SITES VFR EXCEPT FOR A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT TRI TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281906
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.  A
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.  THEN...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER JULY DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH (FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR) OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A SERIES
OF SHORT-WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR
LATE WEEK. GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN RETURN MOISTURE
MONDAY WILL AGAIN PRODUCE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281906
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.  A
WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER
DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.  THEN...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER JULY DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR
MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH (FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR) OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A SERIES
OF SHORT-WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR
LATE WEEK. GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...THEN RETURN MOISTURE
MONDAY WILL AGAIN PRODUCE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  83  59  85 /  10  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  79  57  83 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  79  56  83 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  76  51  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
AN EXITING COLD FRONT.   OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT
...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281726
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
126 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
AN EXITING COLD FRONT.   OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT
...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  COOLER...DRIER AIR MOVES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281558
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1140 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT.   ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLITY A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  OTHERWISE...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...NO UPDATE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  63  81  59 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  62  79  57 /  20  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  62  79  56 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  57  76  53 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 281558
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1140 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT.   ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBLITY A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  OTHERWISE...COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...NO UPDATE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  63  81  59 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  62  79  57 /  20  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  62  79  56 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  57  76  53 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL HELP TO GENERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280755
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
355 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TN BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL SET UP THE FORECAST
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
AUTUMN-TYPE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ABNORMALLY LOW TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15 DEGREES BELOW THAN NORMAL AS THE THE MERCURY IS
PROGGED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT PARENT LOW ON FRIDAY...SENDING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY IN DAYS 6 AND 7 TO A SOLID CHANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  63  81  59 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  62  79  57 /  20  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  62  79  56 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  57  76  53 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280755
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
355 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TN BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL SET UP THE FORECAST
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
AUTUMN-TYPE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ABNORMALLY LOW TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15 DEGREES BELOW THAN NORMAL AS THE THE MERCURY IS
PROGGED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT PARENT LOW ON FRIDAY...SENDING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY IN DAYS 6 AND 7 TO A SOLID CHANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  63  81  59 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  62  79  57 /  20  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  62  79  56 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  57  76  53 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280554
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
154 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CHA FOR ANOTHER HOUR SO HAVE
TEMPO GROUP THERE. STORMS HAVE ENDED AT TYS AND TRI BUT MVFR FOG OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING BECAUSE OF EARLIER RAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND 13Z MONDAY.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280554
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
154 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CHA FOR ANOTHER HOUR SO HAVE
TEMPO GROUP THERE. STORMS HAVE ENDED AT TYS AND TRI BUT MVFR FOG OR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING BECAUSE OF EARLIER RAIN.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD
CLEAR OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AROUND 13Z MONDAY.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280045
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND ROTATING
STORMS. MORE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS HOUR
AND MOVING BACK INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
MORE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS SO UPDATED FOR NEW
WATCH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280045
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND ROTATING
STORMS. MORE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS HOUR
AND MOVING BACK INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
MORE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS SO UPDATED FOR NEW
WATCH. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 280012
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
812 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION MOVED INTO EAST TENNESSEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN AT TYS FOR A FEW
HOURS ALSO MORE ACTIVITY FOR CHA AND TRI LATER BEFORE DISSIPATING.
RAIN MAY CAUSE FOG FORMATION LATER. PLACED SOME LIGHT FOG AT TRI
WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SOME LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AFTER STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF RIGHT NOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECT
AT TRI. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH
COLD FRONT. WOULD EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280012
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
812 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION MOVED INTO EAST TENNESSEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN AT TYS FOR A FEW
HOURS ALSO MORE ACTIVITY FOR CHA AND TRI LATER BEFORE DISSIPATING.
RAIN MAY CAUSE FOG FORMATION LATER. PLACED SOME LIGHT FOG AT TRI
WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SOME LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AFTER STORMS BUT WILL HOLD OFF RIGHT NOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECT
AT TRI. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH
COLD FRONT. WOULD EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271842
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON IS ON THE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS TRACKING SE OUT OF
ERN KY. SEEING SOME ROTATIONS AT TIMES...AND THESE STORMS MAY MOVE
NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. THE BOUNDARY MAY JUST
BE DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SINCE REMNANTS OF LATE NIGHT
STORMS KEPT CLOUDS OVER SW VA AND EXTREME NE TN TODAY.

RAP MODEL AND HRR DATA GENERALLY AGREE WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS IN
THIS CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING. KEPT AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING BEYOND MIDNIGHT SINCE THE COLD
FRONT HAS TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY MONDAY...SO COOLER TEMPS ARE ON THE
WAY. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT DOES HINT AT SOME PASSING WEAK
CONVECTION AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WAS PRETTY MUCH ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO I KEPT FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...GFS MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR MOST PERIODS...OR A BLEND WITH
NAM MOS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ENJOY A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MOISTURE
WILL VERY SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
SHORT WAVE FEATURES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH ENHANCING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WITH THUNDER MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SUFFICIENTLY
WARM SURFACE THROUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERLAIN BY CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL AIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PERHAPS BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN PROBABILITY BY SUNDAY AS THE OFFENDING TROUGH WEAKENS A BIT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL HAD TO
UNDERCUT BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE COOL PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  85  64  83 /  40  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  82  61  80 /  60  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  82  60  80 /  60  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  79  57  77 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271842
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON IS ON THE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS TRACKING SE OUT OF
ERN KY. SEEING SOME ROTATIONS AT TIMES...AND THESE STORMS MAY MOVE
NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. THE BOUNDARY MAY JUST
BE DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SINCE REMNANTS OF LATE NIGHT
STORMS KEPT CLOUDS OVER SW VA AND EXTREME NE TN TODAY.

RAP MODEL AND HRR DATA GENERALLY AGREE WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS IN
THIS CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING. KEPT AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING BEYOND MIDNIGHT SINCE THE COLD
FRONT HAS TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY MONDAY...SO COOLER TEMPS ARE ON THE
WAY. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT DOES HINT AT SOME PASSING WEAK
CONVECTION AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WAS PRETTY MUCH ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO I KEPT FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPS...GFS MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR MOST PERIODS...OR A BLEND WITH
NAM MOS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ENJOY A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MOISTURE
WILL VERY SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
SHORT WAVE FEATURES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH ENHANCING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WITH THUNDER MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SUFFICIENTLY
WARM SURFACE THROUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERLAIN BY CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL AIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PERHAPS BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN PROBABILITY BY SUNDAY AS THE OFFENDING TROUGH WEAKENS A BIT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL HAD TO
UNDERCUT BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE COOL PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  85  64  83 /  40  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  82  61  80 /  60  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  82  60  80 /  60  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  79  57  77 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271750
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HEADING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT VALLEY. THE STORMS MAY NOT IMPACT TRI
AND TYS UNTIL ABOUT 21-23Z AND NOT UNTIL ABOUT 00-02Z AT CHA.
APPLIED SOME PREVAILING THUNDER IN AN MVFR MODE FOR THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. NOT SURE HOW MUCH GRADIENT WIND THERE
WILL BE BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH THERE MAY NOT BE
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION. PLACED SOME LIGHT FOG AT EACH TERMINAL WITH
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL EARLY IN THE EVENING. WOULD EXPECT A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z ON MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 271750
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HEADING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT VALLEY. THE STORMS MAY NOT IMPACT TRI
AND TYS UNTIL ABOUT 21-23Z AND NOT UNTIL ABOUT 00-02Z AT CHA.
APPLIED SOME PREVAILING THUNDER IN AN MVFR MODE FOR THE LATE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. NOT SURE HOW MUCH GRADIENT WIND THERE
WILL BE BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT IF THERE IS ENOUGH THERE MAY NOT BE
TOO MUCH FOG FORMATION. PLACED SOME LIGHT FOG AT EACH TERMINAL WITH
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL EARLY IN THE EVENING. WOULD EXPECT A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z ON MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
948 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN END OF MCS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
OVER SW VA ABD EXTREME NE TN THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
WAS KEEPING INSTABILITY DOWN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OVER SW VA AND NE
TN. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY BY 18Z TO 21Z. THE TIMING OF
STRONG TO SEVRE STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE DELAYED JUST A BIT...WITH
GENERALLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
NRN MOST COUNTIES AT MID AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF OUR AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL LIKELY NEED TO FRESHEN HOURLY GRIDS AND A FEW WEB PRODUCTS IN A
MORNING UPDATE, CLOUD COVER SHOULD WORK TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN LINE
WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH IS BELOW THE HOT TEMPS FROM GFS MOS.

A WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED FOR 2PM TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  72  85  62 /  20  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  71  82  60 /  30  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  71  82  60 /  40  60  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  66  79  58 /  50  60  20  20
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
948 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN END OF MCS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
OVER SW VA ABD EXTREME NE TN THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
WAS KEEPING INSTABILITY DOWN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OVER SW VA AND NE
TN. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY BY 18Z TO 21Z. THE TIMING OF
STRONG TO SEVRE STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE DELAYED JUST A BIT...WITH
GENERALLY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
NRN MOST COUNTIES AT MID AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF OUR AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL LIKELY NEED TO FRESHEN HOURLY GRIDS AND A FEW WEB PRODUCTS IN A
MORNING UPDATE, CLOUD COVER SHOULD WORK TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN LINE
WITH THE FORECAST...WHICH IS BELOW THE HOT TEMPS FROM GFS MOS.

A WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED FOR 2PM TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             93  72  85  62 /  20  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  71  82  60 /  30  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  71  82  60 /  40  60  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              88  66  79  58 /  50  60  20  20
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271109
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
710 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID WEST...WITH
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AREA RADARS REVEAL
A DECAYING MCS OVER SOUTHEAST KY...WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND KTRI THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND KTRI AND KTYS THIS AFTERNOON...
AND THEN AROUND KCHA THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION VCTS IN
THE TAFS SINCE TIMING THE EXACT OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION AT THE TAF
SITES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271109
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
710 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID WEST...WITH
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AREA RADARS REVEAL
A DECAYING MCS OVER SOUTHEAST KY...WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND KTRI THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND KTRI AND KTYS THIS AFTERNOON...
AND THEN AROUND KCHA THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION VCTS IN
THE TAFS SINCE TIMING THE EXACT OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION AT THE TAF
SITES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





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