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000
FXUS64 KMRX 160713
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMDITIES AND FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. LIKEWISE...
DRY AIR-MASS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. MOST VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AREAS...FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS
OF FROST IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNING/FROST
ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A QUIET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TWO WEAK COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY DUE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH THE MODELS
INDICATE WILL CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL GENERALLY TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  36  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  33  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 160713
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMDITIES AND FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. LIKEWISE...
DRY AIR-MASS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. MOST VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AREAS...FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS
OF FROST IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNING/FROST
ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A QUIET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TWO WEAK COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY DUE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH THE MODELS
INDICATE WILL CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL GENERALLY TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  36  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  33  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 160509
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
109 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 3500-4500 FEET CLOUDS AT TRI AND TYS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLOUD FREE AFTER
12Z. ALSO...SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-
     BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
     MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 160509
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
109 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 3500-4500 FEET CLOUDS AT TRI AND TYS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLOUD FREE AFTER
12Z. ALSO...SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-
     BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
     MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 160058
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
858 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY. FREEZE IN STORE OVERNIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
TO GRIDS BUT BIG PICTURE REMAINS ON TARGET.

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREDOMINATE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT THROUGH 08Z AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-
     BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
     MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 160058
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
858 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CANCELLED WIND ADVISORY. FREEZE IN STORE OVERNIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
TO GRIDS BUT BIG PICTURE REMAINS ON TARGET.

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREDOMINATE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT THROUGH 08Z AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-
     BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
     MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 151912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NICE BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE RIDGE. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH MID EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY BUT LOW DECK WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO DISSIPATE. GRADIENT
DROPS OFF LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. THE FREEZE
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WHILE MINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EDGE JUST BELOW FREEZING
TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS SUCH AN ANOMALOUS AIRMASS THAT RECORD MINS
COULD BE TIED OR EXCEEDED FOR THE DATE AT TRI...TYS AND CHA. DRY AIR
AND RIDGING WILL BRIGHTEN SPIRITS ON WEDNESDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. EVEN WITH UNABATED INSOLATION MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEYS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA. MARGINAL
FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
REMAINS IN PLACE.

A LOW AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND UPPER TN
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATE WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THROWING OUT THE NAM WHICH FAVORS MUCH
MORE RETURN GULF MOISTURE. CONTINUED WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SOUTHERN
UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO LEANED A BIT WARMER
FOR MINUTES OF SUNSHINE. SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO TN VALLEY ON MONDAY.
SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUE. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW WHICH COULD KEEP SCATTERED CONVECYION GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             30  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  62  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              26  60  29  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 151912
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO PUSH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NICE BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE RIDGE. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH MID EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY BUT LOW DECK WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO DISSIPATE. GRADIENT
DROPS OFF LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES. THE FREEZE
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH WHILE MINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL EDGE JUST BELOW FREEZING
TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS SUCH AN ANOMALOUS AIRMASS THAT RECORD MINS
COULD BE TIED OR EXCEEDED FOR THE DATE AT TRI...TYS AND CHA. DRY AIR
AND RIDGING WILL BRIGHTEN SPIRITS ON WEDNESDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. EVEN WITH UNABATED INSOLATION MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEYS. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA. MARGINAL
FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
REMAINS IN PLACE.

A LOW AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO AND UPPER TN
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATE WITH THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THROWING OUT THE NAM WHICH FAVORS MUCH
MORE RETURN GULF MOISTURE. CONTINUED WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SOUTHERN
UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO LEANED A BIT WARMER
FOR MINUTES OF SUNSHINE. SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO TN VALLEY ON MONDAY.
SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUE. THIS
IS FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW WHICH COULD KEEP SCATTERED CONVECYION GOING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             30  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  62  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              26  60  29  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 151753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
153 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...500 MB TROUGH LUMBERING EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUD WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW AND A COUPLE PELLETS OF SLEET AT TIMES WORKING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT COMPLETE
AT BOTH CHA AND TYS BUT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT
TRI. HEALTHY NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES AT THE TERMINALS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO
START THE FORECAST AROUND CHA AND TYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILING INTO THE MID EVENING PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CLOSING
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 151753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
153 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...500 MB TROUGH LUMBERING EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUD WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW AND A COUPLE PELLETS OF SLEET AT TIMES WORKING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION JUST ABOUT COMPLETE
AT BOTH CHA AND TYS BUT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT
TRI. HEALTHY NORTHERLY BREEZE CONTINUES AT THE TERMINALS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO
START THE FORECAST AROUND CHA AND TYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILING INTO THE MID EVENING PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CLOSING
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 151507
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHILLY AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THE COLD AIR...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND LIGHT RAIN IS
MAKING IT FEEL RATHER RAW OUT THERE TODAY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
SHIELD IS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW MAINLY IMPACTING HIGHER
TERRAIN. WENT AHEAD AND JUST MIXED IN A BIT OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS NEGATIVE SEVEN
TO NEGATIVE EIGHT DEGREE AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION AT 85H. STILL
COULD SEE ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE INCH ABOVE 3500 FEET. DON`T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BELOW THIS ELEVATION ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT. TAPERED
PRECIP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO
MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  30  62  35 /  70   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  29  61  34 /  70   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  28  61  33 /  70   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  26  60  29 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 151507
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1100 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHILLY AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING. THE COLD AIR...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND LIGHT RAIN IS
MAKING IT FEEL RATHER RAW OUT THERE TODAY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
SHIELD IS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW MAINLY IMPACTING HIGHER
TERRAIN. WENT AHEAD AND JUST MIXED IN A BIT OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS NEGATIVE SEVEN
TO NEGATIVE EIGHT DEGREE AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION AT 85H. STILL
COULD SEE ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE INCH ABOVE 3500 FEET. DON`T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BELOW THIS ELEVATION ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT. TAPERED
PRECIP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO
MODEL SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  30  62  35 /  70   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  29  61  34 /  70   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  28  61  33 /  70   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  26  60  29 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 151136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIP STILL FALLING BUT SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ONCE THAT HAPPENS CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH BELOW
FREEZING AT ALL SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 151136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIP STILL FALLING BUT SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ONCE THAT HAPPENS CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH BELOW
FREEZING AT ALL SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-
     BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 150822
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
422 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MAIN RAINS HAVE STAYED WELL
SOUTH...SO WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON THE POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES AND
WIND.

UPGRADING TO FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE AREA. CHATTANOOGA
AIRPORT MAY ONLY GET TO 30-32 DEGREES WITH WIND BLOWING ACROSS CITY
HEAT ISLAND...BUT OTHER PARTS OF THE SUBURBS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO THINK WARNING FOR EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS LOOKS
GOOD.

AS THE COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...WIND CHILL VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEY AND IN THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.  TIMING NOT VERY GOOD FOR SNOW...NOT MUCH
MOISTURE LEFT AROUND BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR HITS.  WILL HAVE
SOME FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION INCLUDED.

WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK WILL LIMIT NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN. THE
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN LOW CHANCE VARIETY WITH
BEST CHANCES NORTH AND MOUNTAINS

NEXT AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE EJECT EASTWARD. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
STRONGER. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL MODELS ONLY DEPICT A FAIRLY WEAK WAVE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  30  62  35 /  30   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  29  61  34 /  50   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  28  61  33 /  50   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  26  60  29 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST
     POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 150822
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
422 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MAIN RAINS HAVE STAYED WELL
SOUTH...SO WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON THE POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES AND
WIND.

UPGRADING TO FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE AREA. CHATTANOOGA
AIRPORT MAY ONLY GET TO 30-32 DEGREES WITH WIND BLOWING ACROSS CITY
HEAT ISLAND...BUT OTHER PARTS OF THE SUBURBS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO THINK WARNING FOR EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS LOOKS
GOOD.

AS THE COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...WIND CHILL VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEY AND IN THE
20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.  TIMING NOT VERY GOOD FOR SNOW...NOT MUCH
MOISTURE LEFT AROUND BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR HITS.  WILL HAVE
SOME FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION INCLUDED.

WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE
EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK WILL LIMIT NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN. THE
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN LOW CHANCE VARIETY WITH
BEST CHANCES NORTH AND MOUNTAINS

NEXT AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE EJECT EASTWARD. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE
STRONGER. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL MODELS ONLY DEPICT A FAIRLY WEAK WAVE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  30  62  35 /  30   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  29  61  34 /  50   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  28  61  33 /  50   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  26  60  29 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST
     POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 150705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

UPGRADING TO FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE AREA. CHATTANOOGA
AIRPORT MAY ONLY GET TO 30-32 DEGREES WITH WIND BLOWING ACROSS CITY
HEAT ISLAND...BUT OTHER PARTS OF THE SUBURBS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO THINK WARNING FOR EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS LOOKS
GOOD.

WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.

LASTLY...FREEZE WATCH FOR PART OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  30  62  35 /  60   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  61  34 /  80   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  27  61  33 /  80   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  25  60  29 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST
     POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 150705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

UPGRADING TO FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE AREA. CHATTANOOGA
AIRPORT MAY ONLY GET TO 30-32 DEGREES WITH WIND BLOWING ACROSS CITY
HEAT ISLAND...BUT OTHER PARTS OF THE SUBURBS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO THINK WARNING FOR EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS LOOKS
GOOD.

WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER.

LASTLY...FREEZE WATCH FOR PART OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  30  62  35 /  60   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  61  34 /  80   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  27  61  33 /  80   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  25  60  29 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-
     HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
     WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST
     POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 150555
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSED DOWN ALONG GULF...SO MOST OF
THE E TN AREA FOR THESE TAF SITES ARE ONLY SEEING PATCHY SHOWERS.
BACK SIDE OF LIFT MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE BACK
SIDE WILL CLEAR KCHA BY ABOUT 07Z...KTYS BY ABOUT 08Z...AND KTRI BY
ABOUT 09Z. FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THOSE AREAS NEAR THOSE
TIMES AS WELL. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL IN BEHIND FRONT AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR THE START OF A COLD NIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 150555
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
155 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSED DOWN ALONG GULF...SO MOST OF
THE E TN AREA FOR THESE TAF SITES ARE ONLY SEEING PATCHY SHOWERS.
BACK SIDE OF LIFT MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE BACK
SIDE WILL CLEAR KCHA BY ABOUT 07Z...KTYS BY ABOUT 08Z...AND KTRI BY
ABOUT 09Z. FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THOSE AREAS NEAR THOSE
TIMES AS WELL. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL IN BEHIND FRONT AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR THE START OF A COLD NIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 150136 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY
LITTLE RAIN MAKING IT BACK INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY SO
FAR. SATELLITE PICTURES REVEALING EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WITH COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND OUT OF MIDDLE
TN. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT DROPPING TEMPERATURES OVER
WEST AND MIDDLE TN. BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION IN LOWER MS
VALLEY AND AL GULF COAST AT THIS HOUR. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z DOWN SOMEWHAT AND THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KY. WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY. HIGHS FOR THE DAY MAY
COME EARLY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL FRESHEN WORDING
OF WATCH NEXT FEW MINUTES. UPDATE ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  52  30  64 / 100  60   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  50  27  61 / 100  80   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  49  27  60 / 100  80   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  53  25  60 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 150136 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
936 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY
LITTLE RAIN MAKING IT BACK INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY SO
FAR. SATELLITE PICTURES REVEALING EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WITH COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND OUT OF MIDDLE
TN. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT DROPPING TEMPERATURES OVER
WEST AND MIDDLE TN. BEST INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION IN LOWER MS
VALLEY AND AL GULF COAST AT THIS HOUR. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH 12Z DOWN SOMEWHAT AND THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
RELAXED WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KY. WINDS SHOULD PICK
UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY. HIGHS FOR THE DAY MAY
COME EARLY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL FRESHEN WORDING
OF WATCH NEXT FEW MINUTES. UPDATE ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  52  30  64 / 100  60   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  50  27  61 / 100  80   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  49  27  60 / 100  80   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  53  25  60 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 142347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MOVING BACK ACROSS THE VALLEY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BETWEEN 3 AND 5Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DROP TO MVFR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN
WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND
SURFACE FRONT. WINDS PICK UP JUST AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING AND
GUSTS REACH OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 142347
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
747 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MOVING BACK ACROSS THE VALLEY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BETWEEN 3 AND 5Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DROP TO MVFR FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN
WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND
SURFACE FRONT. WINDS PICK UP JUST AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING AND
GUSTS REACH OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 141913
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS MAKING
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MODEL INSTABILITY NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO USED CHANCE TYPE
WORDING FOR CONVECTION IN THE CATEGORICAL POP ENVIRONMENT. THE MASS
OF SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. BASICALLY HAVE THE RAIN ENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BUT
CONTINUING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION. MUCH
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE
DURING THE MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS
IN THE SMOKIES. DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH IN THESE AREAS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND SPEED DROPS. MAINTAINED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
MOVED IN BY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTED LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY`S WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH
WILL STILL BE AROUND 8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINED WITH CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE FROST ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL LOOK TO BE FROM KNOXVILLE
NORTH BUT MORE SO ACROSS NETN AND ESPECIALLY FOR SWVA. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND WILL NOW BE TO OUR EAST...RESULTING IN A
A RETURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER
60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ANY FROST DANGER AS
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TOWARD CHATT...LOW TO MID 40S FOR
KNOX...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES.

HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT QUICKLY RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
PROVIDE US WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS SO FAR NORTH THAT IT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE US TOO MANY PROBLEMS OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STARTING TO CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF GREATLY DIFFER ON SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS A WET SUNDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE UNTIL MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MONDAY AS
MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAYS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK IN WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  52  30  64 / 100  60   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  50  27  61 / 100  80   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  49  27  60 / 100  80   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  53  25  60 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

20/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 141913
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS MAKING
PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MODEL INSTABILITY NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO USED CHANCE TYPE
WORDING FOR CONVECTION IN THE CATEGORICAL POP ENVIRONMENT. THE MASS
OF SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. BASICALLY HAVE THE RAIN ENDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BUT
CONTINUING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION. MUCH
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE
DURING THE MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS
IN THE SMOKIES. DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH IN THESE AREAS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND SPEED DROPS. MAINTAINED THE FREEZE
WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE
MOVED IN BY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTED LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY`S WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH
WILL STILL BE AROUND 8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINED WITH CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE FROST ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL LOOK TO BE FROM KNOXVILLE
NORTH BUT MORE SO ACROSS NETN AND ESPECIALLY FOR SWVA. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND WILL NOW BE TO OUR EAST...RESULTING IN A
A RETURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER
60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ANY FROST DANGER AS
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TOWARD CHATT...LOW TO MID 40S FOR
KNOX...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES.

HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT QUICKLY RACES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
PROVIDE US WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS SO FAR NORTH THAT IT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE US TOO MANY PROBLEMS OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STARTING TO CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF GREATLY DIFFER ON SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS A WET SUNDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE UNTIL MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MONDAY AS
MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAYS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK IN WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  52  30  64 / 100  60   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  50  27  61 / 100  80   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  49  27  60 / 100  80   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  53  25  60 / 100  90  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

20/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 141719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE JUST ABOUT OUT OF
THE PICTURE AT THE TERMINALS AS BACK EDGE NEARING TYS AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT CONTINUES TO ERADICATE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE
GREAT VALLEY. SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW HOURS OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE BACK ACROSS THE VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAD
TO MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. IT CERTAINLY
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATED BY THE MODELS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 141719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE JUST ABOUT OUT OF
THE PICTURE AT THE TERMINALS AS BACK EDGE NEARING TYS AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT CONTINUES TO ERADICATE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE
GREAT VALLEY. SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW HOURS OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE BACK ACROSS THE VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAD
TO MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. IT CERTAINLY
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATED BY THE MODELS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 141416
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1015 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...LEAD SHORTWAVE MAKING PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE VIEWING AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR REFLECTIVITY NOT REAL
IMPRESSIVE AND SURFACE OBS REVEAL THAT THE RAIN IS QUITE LIGHT. LIFT
WITH THIS INITIAL FEATURE IS RATHER WEAK. THE HEALTHY SOUTHERLY 85H
FLOW ACROSS THE TERRAIN COULD REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE TO JUST A FEW DROPS OF RAIN AS THE WAVE WORKS
EAST. THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A PRETTY DECENT GRASP OF THE
SITUATION WITH THE WEAK AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN IN SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS PRECIP DOESN`T ENTER THE WESTERN HORIZON UNTIL
CLOSE TO 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT POPS IN THE GRIDS ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY
GOOD WITH THE DECREASING TREND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE VIEWING
AREA WITH THE MAIN EVENT AROUND 00Z TUESDAY AND LATER. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE`S ABILITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE SO WILL REMOVE THIS
WORDING HERE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT WITH
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD THIS MORNING BUT THE MID DECK WILL KEEP
SUNSHINE AT BAY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WEST BEFORE SOME BREAKS
APPEAR WHILE THE EASTERN HALF WILL KEEP A MID DECK FOR A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 141133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETEORIATE ACROSS CHA
AND TYS THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDESTORM MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN THIS
MORNING WILL BE LOWERING OF VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS WITH CEILING
REMAINING GENERALLY ABOVE 3KFT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES...EXCEPT WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR. THE OVERAL COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES CHA AND TYS THIS EVENING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. ALSO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND IFR AT CHA DURING THE EVENING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TYS AND CHA AFTER 06Z.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND IN/NEAR STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (CHA 04Z...TYS
06Z AND TRI 08Z). WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KTS AT CHA AND TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 141133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETEORIATE ACROSS CHA
AND TYS THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDESTORM MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN THIS
MORNING WILL BE LOWERING OF VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS WITH CEILING
REMAINING GENERALLY ABOVE 3KFT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES...EXCEPT WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR. THE OVERAL COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES CHA AND TYS THIS EVENING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. ALSO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AND IFR AT CHA DURING THE EVENING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT TYS AND CHA AFTER 06Z.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND IN/NEAR STORMS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (CHA 04Z...TYS
06Z AND TRI 08Z). WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 12-17KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KTS AT CHA AND TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 140744
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
344 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN DYNAMICS WITH UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AGAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY. VERTICAL PROFILE WILL
SUPPORT THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AS BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
PUSH COOLER AND DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A HARD AND POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA /PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE READINGS IN THE 23 TO 28
DEGREE RANGE MAY BE COMMON/. ADDITIONALLY...NEARLY ALL OF OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH SOME SHELTERED
VALLEYS THERE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT AN
EVENT LIKE THIS WILL HAVE TO CROPS AND PLANTS...THOSE WITH
AGRICURTUAL INTERESTS SHOULD ESPECIALLY TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT ALL
TENDER VEGETATION.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AN ADDTIONAL LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST SEEMS PROBABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN /AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES/. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY RETURN FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  45  51  31 /  90 100  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  46  49  28 /  80 100  80  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  44  48  28 /  80 100  70  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  51  52  25 /  60 100  90  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 140744
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
344 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN DYNAMICS WITH UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AGAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY. VERTICAL PROFILE WILL
SUPPORT THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AS BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
PUSH COOLER AND DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A HARD AND POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA /PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE READINGS IN THE 23 TO 28
DEGREE RANGE MAY BE COMMON/. ADDITIONALLY...NEARLY ALL OF OF THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH SOME SHELTERED
VALLEYS THERE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT AN
EVENT LIKE THIS WILL HAVE TO CROPS AND PLANTS...THOSE WITH
AGRICURTUAL INTERESTS SHOULD ESPECIALLY TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT ALL
TENDER VEGETATION.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AN ADDTIONAL LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST SEEMS PROBABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN /AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES/. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY RETURN FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  45  51  31 /  90 100  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  46  49  28 /  80 100  80  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       74  44  48  28 /  80 100  70  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  51  52  25 /  60 100  90  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 140519
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE ACROSS CHA AND TYS
THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDESTORM
MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE
LOWERING OF VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS WITH CEILING REMAINING
GENERALLY ABOVE 3KFT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES...EXCEPT WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR. THE OVERAL COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES CHA AND TYS THIS EVENING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. ALSO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT CHA DURING THE EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND IN/NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 140519
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE ACROSS CHA AND TYS
THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDESTORM
MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE
LOWERING OF VISIBILITY DUE TO SHOWERS WITH CEILING REMAINING
GENERALLY ABOVE 3KFT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF
SITES...EXCEPT WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR. THE OVERAL COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES CHA AND TYS THIS EVENING...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. ALSO...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT CHA DURING THE EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND IN/NEAR STORMS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 140211
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1011 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAVE REACHED EASTERN ARKANSAS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WEST TN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA BY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID 70S VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY
DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO AS SOUTH WINDS STAY UP AND CLOUDS
INCREASE AND LOWER. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
AND ALSO SLOWED THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 140211
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1011 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
HAVE REACHED EASTERN ARKANSAS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WEST TN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA BY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO MID 70S VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY
DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO AS SOUTH WINDS STAY UP AND CLOUDS
INCREASE AND LOWER. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
AND ALSO SLOWED THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 140008
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
808 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY
MONDAY. CLOUDS LOWER AT CHA BY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND DECREASE IN
VSBY BY AROUND 14Z. SHOWERS VICINITY TYS BY 15Z. LOWER CEILINGS AT
CHA BY 18Z AND 23Z AT TYS. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO KEEP WEATHER VFR
AT TRI THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 131932
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...OVERVIEW...A WET SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL ENSUE AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FIRST IMPACT US
ON MONDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES.

THE LATEST GFS HAS SLOWED A LITTLE BIT ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE WITH THE NAM STILL HAVING AN EVEN LATER ARRIVAL
TIME. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS WON`T GET INTO THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS AS LATE AS 08/09Z AND
THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS THAT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AS OPPOSED TO NETN AND INTO SWVA.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE SHOULD SHOULD BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. MEAN WINDS APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SO THIS
WOULD SUGGEST A LINEAR EVENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LCL VALUES LOOK GOOD ENOUGH THAT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER
APPEARS TO BE GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE HAIL THREAT DOESN`T
LOOK TOO GREAT BUT SMALL HAIL LOOKS POSSIBLE...UP TO HALF AN INCH.
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 00 AND
06 UTC.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TAPER OFF ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T MOVE THOUGH UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING BUT SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT IS
OFF TO OUR EAST...WHICH SHOULD BE SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND GRADUALLY
WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS A BRIEF
BLAST OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS A PART OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE DURING THE
EVENING. SHOULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLEARING SKIES. A DRY REGIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RIDGING IS STILL IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECM/GFS
HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO BRING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WENT CLOSER TO THIS
CONCEPT WITH POPS INCREASING TO MEDIUM CHANCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM HANGING ONTO SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD SATURDAY. DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY TO COMPLETE THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVED WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  72  49  56 /  40  90  90  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  74  49  54 /  20  80  90  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  72  48  55 /  20  80  90  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  73  51  55 /  10  60  90  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/20





000
FXUS64 KMRX 131932
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...OVERVIEW...A WET SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL ENSUE AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL FIRST IMPACT US
ON MONDAY MORNING WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES.

THE LATEST GFS HAS SLOWED A LITTLE BIT ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE WITH THE NAM STILL HAVING AN EVEN LATER ARRIVAL
TIME. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS WON`T GET INTO THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS AS LATE AS 08/09Z AND
THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS
FIRST SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS THAT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AS OPPOSED TO NETN AND INTO SWVA.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE SHOULD SHOULD BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. MEAN WINDS APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SO THIS
WOULD SUGGEST A LINEAR EVENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LCL VALUES LOOK GOOD ENOUGH THAT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT BUT THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER
APPEARS TO BE GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE HAIL THREAT DOESN`T
LOOK TOO GREAT BUT SMALL HAIL LOOKS POSSIBLE...UP TO HALF AN INCH.
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 00 AND
06 UTC.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TAPER OFF ONCE THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T MOVE THOUGH UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING BUT SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT IS
OFF TO OUR EAST...WHICH SHOULD BE SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND GRADUALLY
WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS A BRIEF
BLAST OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS A PART OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE DURING THE
EVENING. SHOULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER CLEARING SKIES. A DRY REGIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RIDGING IS STILL IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECM/GFS
HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO BRING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WENT CLOSER TO THIS
CONCEPT WITH POPS INCREASING TO MEDIUM CHANCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SLOW DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM HANGING ONTO SLIGHT AND LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD SATURDAY. DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY TO COMPLETE THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVED WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             61  72  49  56 /  40  90  90  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  60  74  49  54 /  20  80  90  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       60  72  48  55 /  20  80  90  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  73  51  55 /  10  60  90  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/20




000
FXUS64 KMRX 131735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY MOISTENS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS MAJOR LEAGUE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIAL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST BROKEN CU CEILINGS
AT CHA AND TYS WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWER AT CHA AROUND 11Z
WITH A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY AT TYS. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY KEEP
FLIGHT WEATHER BETTER AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 131735
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY MOISTENS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS MAJOR LEAGUE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIAL SHORT WAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST BROKEN CU CEILINGS
AT CHA AND TYS WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWER AT CHA AROUND 11Z
WITH A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY AT TYS. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY KEEP
FLIGHT WEATHER BETTER AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 131421
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
STATIONED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NEAR 80
TO LOW 80S RANGE FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.
NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMP
GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  60  73  49 /  10  40  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  74  50 /  10  20  80  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  72  48 /  10  40  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  52  73  51 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 131421
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
STATIONED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE NEAR 80
TO LOW 80S RANGE FOR TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.
NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMP
GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  60  73  49 /  10  40  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  60  74  50 /  10  20  80  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  60  72  48 /  10  40  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  52  73  51 /  10  10  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 131119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. MAIN CONCERN REMAIN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

BY 09Z MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CHA
WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 5 MILES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 131119
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. MAIN CONCERN REMAIN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF HIGH AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

BY 09Z MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CHA
WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 5 MILES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




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