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000
FXUS64 KMRX 070826
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
CLOUD COVER HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...PUSH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MUCH OF THE
VALLEY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
FREEZING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLATEAU LATE
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE 32 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MIXED AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE THE SPS FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE
DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH BEST JET DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNIN. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO BE A BIG FACTOR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL CAPES MONDAY WILL
BE BETWEEEN 100- 150 J/KG AND 50-75 J/KG TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLATEAU AND ALL SNOW HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHOWERS...LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL COOL QUICKLY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW AREA-WIDE.

MODEL SHOW FAIRLY DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
COLD AIR SQUEEZING OUT MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. LONG DURATION OF EVENT WILL FAVOR MORE OF AN ADVISORY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH KNOB...VA...
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER 48-60 HOURS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.

WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION MONDAY...DID NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MORNING...THEN DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BESIDES THE SNOW...COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES
WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS.  HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             56  35  45  27 /   0  40  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  34  42  26 /   0  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       54  33  43  25 /   0  60  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  29  41  25 /   0  40  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 070523 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 070523 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 070523 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1223 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 070310
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 20S BY
MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 070310
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 20S BY
MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 070310
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE 20S BY
MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 062342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 062342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 062342
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061956
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)... CURRENTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF TODAY AND
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WILL ALLOW US TO ONCE AGAIN COOL OFF
INTO THE 20`S TO LOWER 30`S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AND HIGHS WILL BE ABLE TO
REBOUND INTO THE 50`S IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH THE ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DEEPENING
TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ARCTIC REGIME SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM LIGHT RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW. THE AIR WILL
BE SO COLD ALOFT THAT THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN
INITIATING SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BUILD
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. STILL TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION A LITTLE TOUGH TO PINPOINT BUT THROUGH THE LENGTHY
PERIOD BEGINNING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ENDING LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PERHAPS THREE TO FIVE INCHES (OR MORE) OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES WITH A
DUSTING OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY (EXCEPTION BEING NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE WHERE TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENT). OF COURSE
OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.
THE FORECAST AREA GETS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SO TO SPEAK THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTERY
PRECIP WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MAY
BE DRY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. AS STATED BEFORE...IT WILL BE A COLD WEEK
WITH HIGHS A GOOD FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT OF A "WARMING"
TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  56  35  44 /   0   0  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  30  52  34  42 /   0   0  40  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  54  34  43 /   0   0  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              25  49  30  41 /   0   0  40  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061128 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED BKN/OVC DECKS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...
BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 061128 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED BKN/OVC DECKS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...
BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 061128 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
628 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED BKN/OVC DECKS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY...
BEFORE THE SKY CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFT TO THE NW BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 060809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE.
THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST...AS A BROAD TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CUT
DOWN ON HEATING SLIGHTLY...SO HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR SO BELOW
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT...THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SKY
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE BE A DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST. EITHER WAY A
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT.
FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAPES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DUIRNG THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY.  WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...DID
NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  31  56  35 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  30  52  34 /   0   0   0  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  30  54  34 /   0   0   0  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  25  49  30 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 060809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE.
THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST...AS A BROAD TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CUT
DOWN ON HEATING SLIGHTLY...SO HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR SO BELOW
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT...THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AND CLEAR THE
AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SKY
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY MORNING ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE BE A DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST. EITHER WAY A
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT.
FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAPES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DUIRNG THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY.  WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...DID
NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MORNING...THEN
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  31  56  35 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  30  52  34 /   0   0   0  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  30  54  34 /   0   0   0  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  25  49  30 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 060526 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1226 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THIS PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 060238
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
938 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
BY MID EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
LOWER 20S AND TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE 20S OVERNIGHT BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD. NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 052340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
640 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 052340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
640 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051934
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
234 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH, HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP CLOUDS AWAY AND TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20`S IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WE WARM UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40`S TO LOW 50`S TOMORROW.
WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE TOMORROW AS HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
LONG TERM WILL BE THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW FORMING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
IN THIS REGIME WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LIMITING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE SOME MODIFICATION OF THE CHILLY AIR IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC AIR ON ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD BE LIFTED INTO A PATTERN OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE GREAT
VALLEY WITH PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO RELATIVELY STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT THROUGH THE THREE
DAY PERIOD. GENERALLY IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK HOWEVER...PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             28  51  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  48  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       27  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              22  45  26  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 051727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1227 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING WILL BE THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051152 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
652 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051152 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
652 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 051152 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
652 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050811
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY PASSING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR. SOME LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE CLOUDS THIN OUT AND A CLEAR SKY
IS REVEALED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THIS CHILLY AIR MASS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS...
RESULTING IN A HARD FREEZE IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE... RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD OF HOW FAR SOUTH UPPER
LOW GOES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON MONDAY. ALSO...AS
UPPER/MID-LEVEL CHILL OFF...LAPSE RATES REALLY STEEPEN ON MONDAY.

WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY DUE TO
TIMING OF THE DAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.

FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED.

BESIDES THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MUCH COLDER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  27  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  22  45  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050811
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
311 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY PASSING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR. SOME LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNRISE...BEFORE CLOUDS THIN OUT AND A CLEAR SKY
IS REVEALED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TODAY. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THIS CHILLY AIR MASS...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 40S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS...
RESULTING IN A HARD FREEZE IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE... RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD OF HOW FAR SOUTH UPPER
LOW GOES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON MONDAY. ALSO...AS
UPPER/MID-LEVEL CHILL OFF...LAPSE RATES REALLY STEEPEN ON MONDAY.

WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY DUE TO
TIMING OF THE DAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.

FOR THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED.

BESIDES THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MUCH COLDER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  45  27  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       45  27  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  22  45  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050538 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH WINDS STAY AT 5 TO 10KT THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOG WILL BE
PATCHY AT BEST LATE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY ONLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...NEAR TRI. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL MAKE FOR BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050538 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH WINDS STAY AT 5 TO 10KT THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOG WILL BE
PATCHY AT BEST LATE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY ONLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...NEAR TRI. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL MAKE FOR BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050538 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1238 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH WINDS STAY AT 5 TO 10KT THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOG WILL BE
PATCHY AT BEST LATE TONIGHT AND GENERALLY ONLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS...NEAR TRI. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL MAKE FOR BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 050306 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ARE KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES
AROUND SUNRISE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OBS SO FAR...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
NEEDED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050306 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ARE KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES
AROUND SUNRISE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OBS SO FAR...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
NEEDED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 050306 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND THE
COLD TEMPS ALOFT ARE KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES
AROUND SUNRISE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OBS SO FAR...NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS
NEEDED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
650 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR A QUIET TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT NEAR TRI. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
650 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR A QUIET TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT NEAR TRI. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 042351
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
650 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR A QUIET TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT NEAR TRI. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041930
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 20`S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR NORMAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY ARE TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY
WITHOUT HAVING TO MENTION PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WITH MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AS SEVERAL SHORTER WAVELENGTH
SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW`S CIRCULATION.
THIS SCENARIO BRINGS ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH EACH FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME
NICE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...SNOW IS BACK IN THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY AND ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION DRIES OUT BASICALLY ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 40S AFTER A
COUPLE DAYS OF MAXES IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             28  49  28  52 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  25  45  28  49 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       26  46  28  50 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  42  24  47 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041930
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 20`S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR NORMAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY ARE TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY
WITHOUT HAVING TO MENTION PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WITH MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AS SEVERAL SHORTER WAVELENGTH
SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW`S CIRCULATION.
THIS SCENARIO BRINGS ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH EACH FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME
NICE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...SNOW IS BACK IN THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY AND ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION DRIES OUT BASICALLY ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 40S AFTER A
COUPLE DAYS OF MAXES IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             28  49  28  52 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  25  45  28  49 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       26  46  28  50 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  42  24  47 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1224 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND NEAR TRI, AND
WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO TYS/CHA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 041205
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
705 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...A DRY PERIOD NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NE TN TODAY AFFECTING TRI AND TYS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AT TYS BUT COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





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