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000
FXUS64 KMRX 242330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED TO OUR SW THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT...TIMING THOSE SHOWERS REACHING TAF
SITES SIMILAR TO 18Z TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT SATURDAY
MORNING AFTER 12Z...BUT COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD SUPPORTS JUST VCTS
WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS.

THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
A BRIEF LULL AT CHA AND TYS... BUT COULD BE MORE LONG LASING IN THE
VICINITY OF TRI. ACTUALLY MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS AND/OR TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  61  76 /  90  80  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  71  60  70 /  80  80  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  71  59  69 /  80  80  70  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  67  54  63 /  50  80  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
731 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED TO OUR SW THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT...TIMING THOSE SHOWERS REACHING TAF
SITES SIMILAR TO 18Z TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT SATURDAY
MORNING AFTER 12Z...BUT COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD SUPPORTS JUST VCTS
WITH PREVAILING SHOWERS.

THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
A BRIEF LULL AT CHA AND TYS... BUT COULD BE MORE LONG LASING IN THE
VICINITY OF TRI. ACTUALLY MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
WITH ANY PASSING SHOWERS AND/OR TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  61  76 /  90  80  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  71  60  70 /  80  80  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  71  59  69 /  80  80  70  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  67  54  63 /  50  80  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...VERY ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET MOVING THROUGH ENHANCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESS
SLOWLY WEST-EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY...FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH
CYCLO-GENESIS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. END RESULT WILL
BE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. CAPES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY LARGE HAIL
CAPES. ALSO...SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25KTS/0-1KM SRH OF 250-300
M2/S2. THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OVER 40KTS.

EXACT EVOLUTION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU...THEN MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS KENTUCKY...THEN
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING WARM FRONT. THERE
COULD BE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG INDICATIONS OF STRONG DAMAGING HIGH WINDS. GOOD MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENHANCING DOWNBURSTS STRENGTH AND LOW-LEVEL JET OF
40-50KTS...PRODUCES DERECHO COMPOSITE PARAMETERS IN THE VERY
FAVORABLE RANGE OF 2 TO 4.

THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70KTS...LARGE HAIL OF GOLFBALL OR LARGER...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING WITH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW VA/NE TN AND EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS/. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD CLEARING WILL OCCUR AND RESULT
IN A SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO MONDAY...WITH SOME MORE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF A
EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...AND SOME DECENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER ...UPPER-RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  61  76 /  90  80  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  71  60  70 /  80  80  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  71  59  69 /  80  80  70  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  67  54  63 /  50  80  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 241920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...VERY ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET MOVING THROUGH ENHANCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESS
SLOWLY WEST-EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY...FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH
CYCLO-GENESIS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. END RESULT WILL
BE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. CAPES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY LARGE HAIL
CAPES. ALSO...SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25KTS/0-1KM SRH OF 250-300
M2/S2. THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OVER 40KTS.

EXACT EVOLUTION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU...THEN MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS KENTUCKY...THEN
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING WARM FRONT. THERE
COULD BE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG INDICATIONS OF STRONG DAMAGING HIGH WINDS. GOOD MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENHANCING DOWNBURSTS STRENGTH AND LOW-LEVEL JET OF
40-50KTS...PRODUCES DERECHO COMPOSITE PARAMETERS IN THE VERY
FAVORABLE RANGE OF 2 TO 4.

THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70KTS...LARGE HAIL OF GOLFBALL OR LARGER...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING WITH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW VA/NE TN AND EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS/. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD CLEARING WILL OCCUR AND RESULT
IN A SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO MONDAY...WITH SOME MORE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF A
EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...AND SOME DECENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER ...UPPER-RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  61  76 /  90  80  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  71  60  70 /  80  80  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  71  59  69 /  80  80  70  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  67  54  63 /  50  80  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 241719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED
WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA. VFR CONDTIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO MARGINAL VFR AT CHA AND TYS SATURDAY
MORNING. ALSO...RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING AT CHA BY AROUND 06Z...TYS AROUND 08Z AND TRI AROUND 10Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED
WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA. VFR CONDTIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO MARGINAL VFR AT CHA AND TYS SATURDAY
MORNING. ALSO...RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING AT CHA BY AROUND 06Z...TYS AROUND 08Z AND TRI AROUND 10Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED
WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA. VFR CONDTIONS WILL DETEORIATE TO MARGINAL VFR AT CHA AND TYS SATURDAY
MORNING. ALSO...RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING AT CHA BY AROUND 06Z...TYS AROUND 08Z AND TRI AROUND 10Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241313 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
913 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FROST ADVISORY. VIRGINIA STATE
FORESTRY REQUESTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW...SO DO EXPECT VERY DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 241313 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
913 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FROST ADVISORY. VIRGINIA STATE
FORESTRY REQUESTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW...SO DO EXPECT VERY DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 241313 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
913 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FROST ADVISORY. VIRGINIA STATE
FORESTRY REQUESTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW...SO DO EXPECT VERY DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 241313 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
913 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FROST ADVISORY. VIRGINIA STATE
FORESTRY REQUESTED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW...SO DO EXPECT VERY DRY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 241129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES.
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 241129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES.
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES.
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 241129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES.
MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240708
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
252 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING UP IN SOME
PLACES AND SOME CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL THIN
AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH DAY BREAK ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FROST
THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH
WEAK RISE IN THICKNESS VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.  THE INITIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
WITH INCREASING LI...CAPE OVER 1000...LOCAL 2000...AND A 40 TO 50 KT
850 JET.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME
STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.  LARGE HAIL AND LIMITED TORNADIC
ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIALLY FOR STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED BY THIS TIME.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL PLACE US IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.  A
WEAK UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
PLACE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240708
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
252 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WINDS ARE STILL HOLDING UP IN SOME
PLACES AND SOME CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL THIN
AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH DAY BREAK ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FROST
THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH
WEAK RISE IN THICKNESS VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. AIRMASS WILL MOISTEN UP TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.  THE INITIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
WITH INCREASING LI...CAPE OVER 1000...LOCAL 2000...AND A 40 TO 50 KT
850 JET.  THIS WILL ALLOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SOME
STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT.  LARGE HAIL AND LIMITED TORNADIC
ACTIVITY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE POTENTIALLY FOR STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED BY THIS TIME.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL PLACE US IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.  A
WEAK UPPER LOW ROTATING THROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
PLACE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  55  75  62 /  10  80  90  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  51  72  58 /  10  70  90  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  66  53 /   0  30  90  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240516
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. NO
THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AT CHA...AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY AT TYS AND POSSIBLY REACHING TRI BY 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 25/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240516
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. NO
THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AT CHA...AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY AT TYS AND POSSIBLY REACHING TRI BY 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 25/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240516
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. NO
THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AT CHA...AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY AT TYS AND POSSIBLY REACHING TRI BY 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 25/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240516
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY...SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. NO
THREAT OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AT CHA...AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY AT TYS AND POSSIBLY REACHING TRI BY 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 25/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240110
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE
FORECAST GRIDS WHERE LIGHT W-NW WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...CALM WINDS
AT MURPHY NC (RHP) HAD ALREADY ALLOWED TEMP TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S. CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WITH ANY THICKER CIRRUS
CLOUDS LIKELY TO JUST SKIRT EXTREME SE TN AND SW NC COUNTIES.

SO...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FROST ADVISORY AREAS AND FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR REST OF TONIGHT. I WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS
AND RE-ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY TOWARD 10 PM EDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 240110
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE
FORECAST GRIDS WHERE LIGHT W-NW WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...CALM WINDS
AT MURPHY NC (RHP) HAD ALREADY ALLOWED TEMP TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S. CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WITH ANY THICKER CIRRUS
CLOUDS LIKELY TO JUST SKIRT EXTREME SE TN AND SW NC COUNTIES.

SO...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FROST ADVISORY AREAS AND FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR REST OF TONIGHT. I WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS
AND RE-ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY TOWARD 10 PM EDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240110
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE
FORECAST GRIDS WHERE LIGHT W-NW WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...CALM WINDS
AT MURPHY NC (RHP) HAD ALREADY ALLOWED TEMP TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S. CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WITH ANY THICKER CIRRUS
CLOUDS LIKELY TO JUST SKIRT EXTREME SE TN AND SW NC COUNTIES.

SO...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FROST ADVISORY AREAS AND FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR REST OF TONIGHT. I WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS
AND RE-ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY TOWARD 10 PM EDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 240110
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE
FORECAST GRIDS WHERE LIGHT W-NW WINDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...CALM WINDS
AT MURPHY NC (RHP) HAD ALREADY ALLOWED TEMP TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S. CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WITH ANY THICKER CIRRUS
CLOUDS LIKELY TO JUST SKIRT EXTREME SE TN AND SW NC COUNTIES.

SO...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FROST ADVISORY AREAS AND FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK FOR REST OF TONIGHT. I WILL FRESHEN THE HOURLY TEMPS
AND RE-ISSUE THE FROST ADVISORY TOWARD 10 PM EDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 232327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
SOUTH TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH. TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 232327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
SOUTH TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH. TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 232327
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
SOUTH TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH. TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGH
AT LEAST 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY.  WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ON FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  GIVEN HOW
DRY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE AT THE START OF FRIDAY THINK ANY PRECIP
TRYING TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE
GROUND...SO WILL GO DRY FOR FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
IS POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE LATE TONIGHT.  THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME WIND ESPECIALLY EARLY...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF LATER
TONIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.  MAY BE SOME
LOCATIONS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SO NO FREEZE WARNING.  HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR AREAS EXCEPT SOME
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN SOME AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SIGNIFICANT BOUT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY
MORNING...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS /SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/... WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF /AND PERHAPS SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL OCCUR/...AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY 21Z. THIS...COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
AS HIGH 60-70KTS WILL RESULT IN VERY GOOD STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
STRONG/ROTATING UPDRAFTS LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES STORM MODE. CURRENTLY...MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING AN MCS/DERECHO FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF KENTUCKY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE DERECHO
EVENT...WITH DERECHO COMPOSITE VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 4 OBSERVED ON
THE LATEST NAM/SHEF RUNS. WITHIN THIS LINE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EXIST AS WELL. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SHOW AN
INITIAL BAND OF DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HELICITY VALUES... HIGH 0-1 KM
SHEAR...AND STP VALUES AS HIGH AS 3 TO 5 /SHOWN BY THE NAM/ WOULD
DEFINITELY SUPPORT SOME TORNADO THREAT /ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS WHERE
A MORE BACKED SURFACE WIND PROFILE AND IN AREAS NEAR ANY LINGERING
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION/. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60-70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. PERSONS THAT HAVE ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED SHOULD PARTICULARLY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION.

BY 03-06Z SUNDAY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF BY THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE CLEARING OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 231910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY.  WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ON FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  GIVEN HOW
DRY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE AT THE START OF FRIDAY THINK ANY PRECIP
TRYING TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE
GROUND...SO WILL GO DRY FOR FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM
IS POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR FREEZE LATE TONIGHT.  THINK THERE WILL BE
SOME WIND ESPECIALLY EARLY...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF LATER
TONIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.  MAY BE SOME
LOCATIONS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING...BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SO NO FREEZE WARNING.  HOWEVER...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR AREAS EXCEPT SOME
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN SOME AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SIGNIFICANT BOUT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY
MORNING...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS /SOME LOCALLY HEAVY/... WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF /AND PERHAPS SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL OCCUR/...AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY 21Z. THIS...COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
AS HIGH 60-70KTS WILL RESULT IN VERY GOOD STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
STRONG/ROTATING UPDRAFTS LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES STORM MODE. CURRENTLY...MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING AN MCS/DERECHO FEATURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF KENTUCKY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE DERECHO
EVENT...WITH DERECHO COMPOSITE VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 4 OBSERVED ON
THE LATEST NAM/SHEF RUNS. WITHIN THIS LINE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EXIST AS WELL. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SHOW AN
INITIAL BAND OF DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HELICITY VALUES... HIGH 0-1 KM
SHEAR...AND STP VALUES AS HIGH AS 3 TO 5 /SHOWN BY THE NAM/ WOULD
DEFINITELY SUPPORT SOME TORNADO THREAT /ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS WHERE
A MORE BACKED SURFACE WIND PROFILE AND IN AREAS NEAR ANY LINGERING
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION/. OVERALL
THOUGH...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60-70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. PERSONS THAT HAVE ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED SHOULD PARTICULARLY MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION.

BY 03-06Z SUNDAY...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OF
THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF BY THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BEFORE CLEARING OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  70  56  78 /   0  10  80  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  36  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  69  52  75 /   0  10  70  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  67  44  67 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
     CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
     UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

LW/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 231722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT EAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY
NORTH.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 231722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT EAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY
NORTH.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 231722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT EAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY
NORTH.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 231722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
122 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT EAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH. SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY
NORTH.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 231434
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE
QUITE DRY SHOULD BE A DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE
LOW AND THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS TODAY...SO AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE FORESTRY FOLKS WILL ISSUE AN SPS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TN AND NC. FUELS STILL TOO WET IN VA.  CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE DATABASE...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 231434
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE
QUITE DRY SHOULD BE A DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE
LOW AND THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS TODAY...SO AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE FORESTRY FOLKS WILL ISSUE AN SPS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TN AND NC. FUELS STILL TOO WET IN VA.  CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE DATABASE...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 231434
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE
QUITE DRY SHOULD BE A DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE
LOW AND THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS TODAY...SO AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE FORESTRY FOLKS WILL ISSUE AN SPS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TN AND NC. FUELS STILL TOO WET IN VA.  CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE DATABASE...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 231434
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE
QUITE DRY SHOULD BE A DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE QUITE
LOW AND THERE WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT WINDS TODAY...SO AFTER
COORDINATING WITH THE FORESTRY FOLKS WILL ISSUE AN SPS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR TN AND NC. FUELS STILL TOO WET IN VA.  CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL TWEAK HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN THE DATABASE...BUT NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 231128
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...IT SHOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST PERIOD FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD BELOW TEN THOUSAND
FEET. SOME DISTURBED WEATHER UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BUT THE MAIN BROKEN LAYER MAY JUST BE A
CIRRUS LAYER AT TIMES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 231128
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...IT SHOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST PERIOD FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD BELOW TEN THOUSAND
FEET. SOME DISTURBED WEATHER UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BUT THE MAIN BROKEN LAYER MAY JUST BE A
CIRRUS LAYER AT TIMES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 230652
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHILE RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE A
FEW ALTO CU AND SOME CI MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RULE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S WARMTH
HOLDING IN THE 60S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO AS WARM AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED
TO BE RATHER LARGE TONIGHT WITH EVEN A LITTLE MIXING UNTIL LATE
EVENING. DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE VIEWING AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ABOVE A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS AL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP LATE IN THE DAY. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. MODEL AGREEMENT OF GOOD
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
WARRANTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM BRINGS A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM KY IN THE
EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS TAPPED WITH THE WARM FRONT
BEING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THIS TIME. ALL SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED TORS. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARD TO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS
TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KEEPING ALL PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH BUT STILL BRINGS
PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 230652
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHILE RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE A
FEW ALTO CU AND SOME CI MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RULE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S WARMTH
HOLDING IN THE 60S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO AS WARM AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED
TO BE RATHER LARGE TONIGHT WITH EVEN A LITTLE MIXING UNTIL LATE
EVENING. DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE VIEWING AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ABOVE A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS AL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP LATE IN THE DAY. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. MODEL AGREEMENT OF GOOD
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
WARRANTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM BRINGS A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM KY IN THE
EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS TAPPED WITH THE WARM FRONT
BEING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THIS TIME. ALL SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED TORS. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARD TO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS
TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KEEPING ALL PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH BUT STILL BRINGS
PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230652
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHILE RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE A
FEW ALTO CU AND SOME CI MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RULE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S WARMTH
HOLDING IN THE 60S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO AS WARM AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED
TO BE RATHER LARGE TONIGHT WITH EVEN A LITTLE MIXING UNTIL LATE
EVENING. DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE VIEWING AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ABOVE A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS AL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP LATE IN THE DAY. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. MODEL AGREEMENT OF GOOD
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
WARRANTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM BRINGS A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM KY IN THE
EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS TAPPED WITH THE WARM FRONT
BEING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THIS TIME. ALL SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED TORS. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARD TO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS
TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KEEPING ALL PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH BUT STILL BRINGS
PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230652
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHILE RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES
MOVES EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE A
FEW ALTO CU AND SOME CI MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RULE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S WARMTH
HOLDING IN THE 60S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO AS WARM AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PROGGED
TO BE RATHER LARGE TONIGHT WITH EVEN A LITTLE MIXING UNTIL LATE
EVENING. DON`T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE VIEWING AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR ABOVE A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS AL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP LATE IN THE DAY. POPS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT RAMPS UP. MODEL AGREEMENT OF GOOD
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
WARRANTED ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NAM BRINGS A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM KY IN THE
EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IS TAPPED WITH THE WARM FRONT
BEING NORTH OF OUR AREA BY THIS TIME. ALL SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED TORS. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARD TO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SE. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS
TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KEEPING ALL PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH BUT STILL BRINGS
PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  42  72  56 /   0   0  30  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  37  70  54 /   0   0  10  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  37  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  33  66  44 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 230551
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WITH IMPACT HOWEVER...SOME SC AND AC IS STILL
HANGING AROUND TYS AND CHA. THIS SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON FLIGHT. WAS CONSIDERING ADDING SOME LIGHT FOG AT CHA BUT THE AC
DECK WAS INCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE CITY. IF THE DECK STICKS
AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IT MAY LIMIT ANY VISIBILITY PROBLEMS
HERE. NOT MUCH CLOUD TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE
EVENING WITH FINE FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 230551
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WITH IMPACT HOWEVER...SOME SC AND AC IS STILL
HANGING AROUND TYS AND CHA. THIS SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON FLIGHT. WAS CONSIDERING ADDING SOME LIGHT FOG AT CHA BUT THE AC
DECK WAS INCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE CITY. IF THE DECK STICKS
AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IT MAY LIMIT ANY VISIBILITY PROBLEMS
HERE. NOT MUCH CLOUD TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE
EVENING WITH FINE FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 230551
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WITH IMPACT HOWEVER...SOME SC AND AC IS STILL
HANGING AROUND TYS AND CHA. THIS SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON FLIGHT. WAS CONSIDERING ADDING SOME LIGHT FOG AT CHA BUT THE AC
DECK WAS INCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE CITY. IF THE DECK STICKS
AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IT MAY LIMIT ANY VISIBILITY PROBLEMS
HERE. NOT MUCH CLOUD TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE
EVENING WITH FINE FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 230551
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION WITH IMPACT HOWEVER...SOME SC AND AC IS STILL
HANGING AROUND TYS AND CHA. THIS SHOULDN`T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT
ON FLIGHT. WAS CONSIDERING ADDING SOME LIGHT FOG AT CHA BUT THE AC
DECK WAS INCHING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE CITY. IF THE DECK STICKS
AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IT MAY LIMIT ANY VISIBILITY PROBLEMS
HERE. NOT MUCH CLOUD TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO THE
EVENING WITH FINE FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 230002 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...DID AN EARLY UPDATE TO DROP LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
AND TO UPDATE THE GRIDS TO ADDRESS THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER
SRN MIDDLE TN SOUTH INTO NRN AL AND NW GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHOWN
BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PASS ACROSS SE TN AND SW NC THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z. STILL SOME LIGHTNING NOTED WITH CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
ALONG THE TN STATELINE TO 1000 J/KG OVER NRN AL/NW GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  67  42  69 /  20  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  36  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  62  32  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230002 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...DID AN EARLY UPDATE TO DROP LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
AND TO UPDATE THE GRIDS TO ADDRESS THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER
SRN MIDDLE TN SOUTH INTO NRN AL AND NW GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHOWN
BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PASS ACROSS SE TN AND SW NC THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z. STILL SOME LIGHTNING NOTED WITH CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
ALONG THE TN STATELINE TO 1000 J/KG OVER NRN AL/NW GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  67  42  69 /  20  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  36  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  62  32  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 230002 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
802 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...DID AN EARLY UPDATE TO DROP LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD
AND TO UPDATE THE GRIDS TO ADDRESS THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER
SRN MIDDLE TN SOUTH INTO NRN AL AND NW GA. THIS ACTIVITY IS SHOWN
BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN TO PASS ACROSS SE TN AND SW NC THROUGH
ABOUT 04Z. STILL SOME LIGHTNING NOTED WITH CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
ALONG THE TN STATELINE TO 1000 J/KG OVER NRN AL/NW GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  67  42  69 /  20  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  36  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  62  32  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 222320
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SRN
AND ERN COUNTIES AT EARLY EVENING.  STILL SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TN STATE LINE SOUTH INTO NRN AL AND NW GA...
PLUS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ERN MTNS.  LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM
SRN MIDDLE TN SOUTH INTO NRN AL.

THUS...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR POSSIBLY VCTS NEAR CHA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.  THINKING THAT TRI AND TYS WILL REMAIN DRY...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.  WEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO NW TO N OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  67  42  69 /  20  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  36  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  62  32  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 222320
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
719 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE THROUGH ALL BUT OUR EXTREME SRN
AND ERN COUNTIES AT EARLY EVENING.  STILL SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TN STATE LINE SOUTH INTO NRN AL AND NW GA...
PLUS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ERN MTNS.  LINGERING INSTABILITY FROM
SRN MIDDLE TN SOUTH INTO NRN AL.

THUS...CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR POSSIBLY VCTS NEAR CHA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.  THINKING THAT TRI AND TYS WILL REMAIN DRY...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.  WEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AND SWITCHING TO NW TO N OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  67  42  69 /  20  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  36  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  62  32  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 221921
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  MAY STILL BE A
SHOWER...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER...MAINLY SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY
TONIGHT.  SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING FURTHER NORTH AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
THESE AREAS...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THAT A FROST ADVISORY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY DROP TO AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE WARNING AS IT SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OR IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MUCH OF AN AGRICULTURAL
PRESENCE.  SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN TN VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. FROST POSSIBLE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY MORNING EXCEPT
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PLATEAU. CLOUDS WITH NEXT
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE FRIDAY OVER OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE MAY TAKE AWHILE TO MOISTEN UP FRIDAY
BUT RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM SE TN TOWARDS SW VA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY INCREASING RAINFALL AS LOW TO THE WEST OF MS RIVER
MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT
A NEW SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK
RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
SOUTH. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID 40S AND 50S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  67  42  69 /  20  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  36  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  62  32  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 221921
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  MAY STILL BE A
SHOWER...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER...MAINLY SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY
TONIGHT.  SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE
CLEARING FURTHER NORTH AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
THESE AREAS...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THAT A FROST ADVISORY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY DROP TO AT OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE WARNING AS IT SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OR IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS MUCH OF AN AGRICULTURAL
PRESENCE.  SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN TN VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. FROST POSSIBLE IN MOST LOCATIONS BY MORNING EXCEPT
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PLATEAU. CLOUDS WITH NEXT
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE FRIDAY OVER OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE MAY TAKE AWHILE TO MOISTEN UP FRIDAY
BUT RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM SE TN TOWARDS SW VA BY
THE END OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY INCREASING RAINFALL AS LOW TO THE WEST OF MS RIVER
MOVES INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT
A NEW SOUTHERN SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STAY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK
RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
SOUTH. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE MID 40S AND 50S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  67  42  69 /  20  10  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  63  36  68 /  10   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  64  36  68 /  10   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  62  32  65 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 221718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT. MAY BE A
SHOWER...BUT WILL JUST MENTION VCSH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 221718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT. MAY BE A
SHOWER...BUT WILL JUST MENTION VCSH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 221718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT. MAY BE A
SHOWER...BUT WILL JUST MENTION VCSH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 221718
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
118 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT. MAY BE A
SHOWER...BUT WILL JUST MENTION VCSH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 221425
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
THUNDER SO WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST. WILL GENERALLY ADJUST TEMPS
UP A BIT AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO BUMP SOME WINDS UP
ESPECIALLY VALLEY. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  48  67  42 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  42  65  38 /  40  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  42  66  38 /  40  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  39  62  33 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 221127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FLIGHT WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A VISIBILITY
REDUCTION IN A SHOWER IF ONE OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED UPDRAFTS
MOVE DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING FROM NORTH
WEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE OTHER ASPECT
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE A HEALTHY WESTERLY BREEZE WITH GUSTINESS.
WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AROUND 00Z
AND LATER.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 220716
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LONG WAVE TROUGH/GREAT LAKES UPPER
LOW CONTROLLING THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPE...WHILE NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WILL BUMP UP TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TODAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAKE FOR A SUNNY BUT
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BE OVER ERN KY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH
AND CENTRAL. FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND A SW FLOW WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE FASTER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KTS AND 850 THETA-E
VALUES AROUND 330 K WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LIKELY POPS
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KY...WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HOLDS BACK THE 850-700 TROUGH PASSAGE UNTIL SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP
SOME LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BUT HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN ITS LOCATION. THE GFS SHOWS
IT OVER KS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER TX. THE GFS LOCATION SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THIS
BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  48  67  42 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  42  65  38 /  40  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  42  66  38 /  40  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  39  62  33 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 220716
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LONG WAVE TROUGH/GREAT LAKES UPPER
LOW CONTROLLING THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS AS CAPE...WHILE NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...WILL BUMP UP TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TODAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAKE FOR A SUNNY BUT
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BE OVER ERN KY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S NORTH
AND CENTRAL. FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AND A SW FLOW WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL RAISE POPS A LITTLE FASTER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KTS AND 850 THETA-E
VALUES AROUND 330 K WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. LIKELY POPS
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS KY...WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HOLDS BACK THE 850-700 TROUGH PASSAGE UNTIL SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP
SOME LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BUT HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN ITS LOCATION. THE GFS SHOWS
IT OVER KS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT OVER TX. THE GFS LOCATION SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THIS
BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  48  67  42 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  42  65  38 /  40  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  42  66  38 /  40  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  39  62  33 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 220533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OCCURRING AT A TERMINAL WILL BE AT TRI WITH SMALLER CHANCES AT TYS
AND CHA. AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND FLIGHT WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH THE FROPA.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 220533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PRODUCING A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OCCURRING AT A TERMINAL WILL BE AT TRI WITH SMALLER CHANCES AT TYS
AND CHA. AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND FLIGHT WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH THE FROPA.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AT TRI.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 220137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. COOL NIGHT WITH PERIODSOF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SON

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNEDAY)...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW
POINTS IN PLACE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.  BY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MOVE IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND SUFFECIENT TO SUPPORT TUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
...THOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
ALSO...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONSISTENT FOR
THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. KEPT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DRY AS NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

NOW THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND SIGNIFICANT RAINS...STILL APPEARS TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
LIKELY POPS CARRIED FOR SATURDAY THEN HIGH CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIODS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A TREND FOR DRIER WEATHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS AND
CONSALL BLEND...WITH MAIN CHANGE TO DROP POPS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE WAVERS A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. FOLLOWED
THE CONSALL BLEND POPS CLOSELY FOR NOW...AS WELL AS TEMPS WHICH WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  74  51  67 /  10  30  40  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  70  45  64 /  10  40  40  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  70  44  66 /  10  40  40  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  65  41  62 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 220137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. COOL NIGHT WITH PERIODSOF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SON

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNEDAY)...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW
POINTS IN PLACE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.  BY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MOVE IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND SUFFECIENT TO SUPPORT TUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
...THOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
ALSO...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONSISTENT FOR
THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWERED POPS
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. KEPT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DRY AS NW
FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

NOW THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND SIGNIFICANT RAINS...STILL APPEARS TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
LIKELY POPS CARRIED FOR SATURDAY THEN HIGH CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT THAT GREAT FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIODS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A TREND FOR DRIER WEATHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS AND
CONSALL BLEND...WITH MAIN CHANGE TO DROP POPS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE WAVERS A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
SPREADING SHOWERS EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. FOLLOWED
THE CONSALL BLEND POPS CLOSELY FOR NOW...AS WELL AS TEMPS WHICH WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  74  51  67 /  10  30  40  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  70  45  64 /  10  40  40  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  70  44  66 /  10  40  40  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  65  41  62 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/TG




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