Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMRX 181401
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1001 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING SOME SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT PLAN TO
UPDATE THIS MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  60  84  63 /   0   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  57  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  56  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  52  80  56 /   0   0  10   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181114 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL LINGER AT KTRI THROUGH MID-
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT EACH TERMINAL /EXPECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
AT KTRI DUE TO SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN/.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 181114 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
714 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG WILL LINGER AT KTRI THROUGH MID-
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT EACH TERMINAL /EXPECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
AT KTRI DUE TO SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN/.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180646
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY PREVENTED
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVER SW
VIRGINIA AND NE TENNESSEE HAS PROMOTED SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ONCE HEATING BEGINS AND THE DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH JUST ONE WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY
EARLY MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILIAR ON TIMING AND CONSISTENT FROM
12Z RUN...SO CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. I DID LOWER THE POPS A BIT FASTER AT 18Z MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...00Z GFSX MOS CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS...
AND ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS ON DAYS WHEN THE SFC-850 MB FLOW SHIFTS TO
WEAK SOUTHERLY. MAX AND MIN TEMPS RUN GENERALLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  60  84  63 /   0   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  57  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  56  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  52  80  56 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 180646
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY PREVENTED
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVER SW
VIRGINIA AND NE TENNESSEE HAS PROMOTED SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ONCE HEATING BEGINS AND THE DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH JUST ONE WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY
EARLY MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILIAR ON TIMING AND CONSISTENT FROM
12Z RUN...SO CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. I DID LOWER THE POPS A BIT FASTER AT 18Z MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...00Z GFSX MOS CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS...
AND ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS ON DAYS WHEN THE SFC-850 MB FLOW SHIFTS TO
WEAK SOUTHERLY. MAX AND MIN TEMPS RUN GENERALLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  60  84  63 /   0   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  57  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  56  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  52  80  56 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180636
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
236 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT KTRI DUE TO
THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS THERE...BEFORE BREAKING UP AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME BKN/OVC MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING...BEFORE
BREAKING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 180636
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
236 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT KTRI DUE TO
THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS THERE...BEFORE BREAKING UP AFTER
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME BKN/OVC MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING...BEFORE
BREAKING UP BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 180111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
911 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS TO OUR WEST WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
WILL TWEAK SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT MORE DETAIL. WILL ALSO ADJUST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  83  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  80  58  82 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  80  58  82 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  78  54  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 180111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
911 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS TO OUR WEST WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
WILL TWEAK SKY COVER TO SHOW A BIT MORE DETAIL. WILL ALSO ADJUST
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. UPDATE OUT SOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  83  60  85 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  80  58  82 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  80  58  82 /  10   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  78  54  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 172333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...SOME CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND UNCERTAINTY STILL FAIRLY HIGH
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT HOW SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE.
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE AT TRI...SO WILL TAKE CONDITIONS AS
LOW AS IFR THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 172333
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
733 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...SOME CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND UNCERTAINTY STILL FAIRLY HIGH
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT HOW SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE.
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE AT TRI...SO WILL TAKE CONDITIONS AS
LOW AS IFR THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 171850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE OZARKS...WHICH WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD BUT ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...SO
THINK THAT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD BE PATCHY AND
MAINLY NEAR AREA WATERWAYS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
WEST THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THESE ZONES. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY
ON SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AWAITS ANOTHER
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE SLOWED THIS FEATURE DOWN WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO TWEAKED POPS BACK
A BIT ON THE FRONT END. STILL NOT A GREAT DEAL OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING
REFUSING TO BREAK DOWN TO LARGE DEGREE AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. SO NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE
AT THIS TIME ARGUES FOR THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WENT WITH A GO SLOW APPROACH TO
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...WITH SOME TRAILING
MOISTURE AN ENERGY BUILDING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH. KEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/




000
FXUS64 KMRX 171850
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
250 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE OZARKS...WHICH WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD BUT ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...SO
THINK THAT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD BE PATCHY AND
MAINLY NEAR AREA WATERWAYS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
WEST THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THESE ZONES. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY
ON SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AWAITS ANOTHER
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE SLOWED THIS FEATURE DOWN WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO TWEAKED POPS BACK
A BIT ON THE FRONT END. STILL NOT A GREAT DEAL OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THIS SYSTEM...WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING
REFUSING TO BREAK DOWN TO LARGE DEGREE AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. SO NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE
AT THIS TIME ARGUES FOR THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WENT WITH A GO SLOW APPROACH TO
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...WITH SOME TRAILING
MOISTURE AN ENERGY BUILDING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH. KEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  83  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/





000
FXUS64 KMRX 171739
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACTIVE AND SOMEWHAT FAST
SPREADING SOME CI IN FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW NOT ACTIVE ENOUGH TO BRING AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO KEEP SOME CU FROM POPPING. SOME
OF THE FAIR WEATHER CU IS BROKEN IN SPOTS BUT MAY SCATTER OUT AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. NOT MUCH TO HINDER FLIGHT OPERATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT OR HIGH END MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IN FOG ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
A BROKEN OR OVERCAST LAYER FORMING AROUND 2K FEET. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14-15Z ON THURSDAY

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 171739
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACTIVE AND SOMEWHAT FAST
SPREADING SOME CI IN FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW NOT ACTIVE ENOUGH TO BRING AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO KEEP SOME CU FROM POPPING. SOME
OF THE FAIR WEATHER CU IS BROKEN IN SPOTS BUT MAY SCATTER OUT AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. NOT MUCH TO HINDER FLIGHT OPERATIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT OR HIGH END MVFR VSBY REDUCTION IN FOG ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
A BROKEN OR OVERCAST LAYER FORMING AROUND 2K FEET. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14-15Z ON THURSDAY

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 171340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME
LOW CLOUDS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS INVERTED
TROUGH...WHICH HAS KEPT FOG TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  56  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  55  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              76  51  75  52 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 171340
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF
IT OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SOME
LOW CLOUDS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS INVERTED
TROUGH...WHICH HAS KEPT FOG TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  57  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  56  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  55  78  56 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              76  51  75  52 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 171120 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG WILL PROMOTE MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT EACH TERMINAL. BY LATE
MORNING...CIGS/VIS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 171120 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT FOG WILL PROMOTE MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT EACH TERMINAL. BY LATE
MORNING...CIGS/VIS WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...WHICH WILL PREVAIL
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 170629
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS ONCE AGAIN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. THIS FOG/CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER UNTIL MID-MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING BEGINS. WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH THE
CONTINUED COOLER...POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S. TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CLOUD COVER/FOG ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LOWS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP AND VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS. NW FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT (DRY) EASES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
FRIDAY...FLEXING NE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY...THEN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER GENERALLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
00Z GFS...SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST GRIDS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...OTHER THAN A FEW MAX/MIN TEMP
AJUSTMENTS. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP ON THE WARMER DAYS...BUT STAYED JUST
BELOW GFSX MOS ON DAYS FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GAVE A BIT MORE
RANGE IN MINS FROM CHA TO TRI ON A FEW NIGHTS...DUE TO DRY AIRMASS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  58  81  59 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  56  78  57 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       76  55  78  56 /  10  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  51  73  52 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 170629
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS ONCE AGAIN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. THIS FOG/CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER UNTIL MID-MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING BEGINS. WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH THE
CONTINUED COOLER...POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S. TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CLOUD COVER/FOG ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LOWS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP AND VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS. NW FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT (DRY) EASES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
FRIDAY...FLEXING NE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY...THEN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER GENERALLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
00Z GFS...SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST GRIDS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...OTHER THAN A FEW MAX/MIN TEMP
AJUSTMENTS. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP ON THE WARMER DAYS...BUT STAYED JUST
BELOW GFSX MOS ON DAYS FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GAVE A BIT MORE
RANGE IN MINS FROM CHA TO TRI ON A FEW NIGHTS...DUE TO DRY AIRMASS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  58  81  59 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  56  78  57 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       76  55  78  56 /  10  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  51  73  52 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 170551 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT EACH TERMINAL...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT KTRI...THIS FOG IS
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AND LOWER CIGS/VIS TO LIFR LEVELS
BETWEEN 10-12Z. THEREAFTER...LIGHT WINDS AND SCT VFR CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 170551 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
151 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT EACH TERMINAL...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT KTRI...THIS FOG IS
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AND LOWER CIGS/VIS TO LIFR LEVELS
BETWEEN 10-12Z. THEREAFTER...LIGHT WINDS AND SCT VFR CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 170147 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A GOOD DEAL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS (BETWEEN 3-4KFT)
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF CLOUD
COVER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. SINCE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ARE QUITE SMALL...ANY BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  80  58  81 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  76  56  78 /  10  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  76  55  78 /  10  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  75  51  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 170147 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A GOOD DEAL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS (BETWEEN 3-4KFT)
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF CLOUD
COVER. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. SINCE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ARE QUITE SMALL...ANY BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...SOME OF THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.

FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  80  58  81 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  76  56  78 /  10  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  76  55  78 /  10  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  75  51  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 162330
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS... SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAIN
CONCERN IS HOW MUCH FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT SINCE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO CEILINGS AT TYS/CHA AND FOG/LOW
CLOUDS AT TRI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...SO EXPECT FOG
AND LOW-CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAINS LIGHT THROUGH THE FOREACST PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 161846
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
THICK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET. LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE
BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AND A LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY MAY INHIBIT THICKER FOG AND MAY ALSO
LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TERRIBLY LOW IF IT
WAS OTHERWISE CLEAR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE TN AND VA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT FOG...WHERE IT DEVELOPS...TO CLEAR BY MID MORNING.
IT SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR LATE SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AND BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH NORTHWEST, AND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WENT A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH THE SKY COVER
AND TEMP ADVECTION...BUT STAYED WITH GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS. BY THE
WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE DISAGREED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
TIMING HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A DEEP TROUGH WILL THEN SET UP WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  80  58  81 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  76  56  78 /  10  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  76  55  78 /  10  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  75  51  73 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 161731
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
131 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED IN SW VA WHICH MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD KTRI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BKN/OVC AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS COULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE GIVING WAY TO ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH THE WORST VSBY/LOW CIGS FOR KTRI
WITH LESSONING CONFIDENCE FARTHER SOUTH. LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z OR THEREABOUTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 161731
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
131 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY OOZING ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED IN SW VA WHICH MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD KTRI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BKN/OVC AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS COULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE GIVING WAY TO ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH THE WORST VSBY/LOW CIGS FOR KTRI
WITH LESSONING CONFIDENCE FARTHER SOUTH. LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z OR THEREABOUTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 161334
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...WHILE IN SE KENTUCKY JUST SHOWERS SO FAR. THE FRONT
WILL ADVANCE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICK OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WHICH MAY
HINDER MAX TEMPERATURES. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY...HOURLY TEMPS AND MAX
TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHERE RAIN OCCURS...WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
FIVE HUNDREDTHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  62  80  58 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  59  77  55 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  58  78  54 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  53  73  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 161334
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
934 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...WHILE IN SE KENTUCKY JUST SHOWERS SO FAR. THE FRONT
WILL ADVANCE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICK OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...WHICH MAY
HINDER MAX TEMPERATURES. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY...HOURLY TEMPS AND MAX
TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHERE RAIN OCCURS...WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
FIVE HUNDREDTHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  62  80  58 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  78  59  77  55 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       77  58  78  54 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  53  73  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 161136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TAFS THIS MORNING...WITH CHA BOTTOMING OUT AT DAYBREAK. LIGHT SW
WINDS HELPING TO LIFT THE LOW CLOUDS AT TYS. EXPECT THE LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...THEN
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SRN PARTS OF KY INTO W VA WOULD APPEAR TO
DEFINE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN TAFS JUST YET.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS HIGH TONIGHT AT TYS AND TRI...SO
TRENDED CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 161136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
735 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TAFS THIS MORNING...WITH CHA BOTTOMING OUT AT DAYBREAK. LIGHT SW
WINDS HELPING TO LIFT THE LOW CLOUDS AT TYS. EXPECT THE LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...THEN
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SRN PARTS OF KY INTO W VA WOULD APPEAR TO
DEFINE THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN TAFS JUST YET.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS HIGH TONIGHT AT TYS AND TRI...SO
TRENDED CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 160737
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/...YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG. RAIN
SEEMS TO BE OVER FOR NOW...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
WHERE THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISBYS ARE NOTED.

FORECAST GRIDS WERE ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (NEAR 70 DEGS
AT CHA)...SO I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES...
THEN DECREASING CLOUDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY TO MESH BETTER WITH NWS NEIGHBORS...GOING NEAR
OR JUST BELOW THE MOS BLEND. GFS MOS MINS WERE CONSISTENT FROM 12Z
DATA AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.


.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THIS DRY BUT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW /ALONG
WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA/ WILL
HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN THEY NORMALLY MIGHT HAVE BEEN...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKY...DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY LOWERING THEM AND HAVE
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BY THE
WEEKEND... RIDGING AND THUS INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...PUSHING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S IN MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER-
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE ONLY SHOT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN
OVER A WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS...SO DID NOT GET OVERALLY SPECIFIC YET. HOWEVER...THE BEST
WINDOW LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  62  80  58 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  59  77  55 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  58  78  54 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  53  73  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 160737
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/...YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG. RAIN
SEEMS TO BE OVER FOR NOW...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
WHERE THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISBYS ARE NOTED.

FORECAST GRIDS WERE ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (NEAR 70 DEGS
AT CHA)...SO I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES...
THEN DECREASING CLOUDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY TO MESH BETTER WITH NWS NEIGHBORS...GOING NEAR
OR JUST BELOW THE MOS BLEND. GFS MOS MINS WERE CONSISTENT FROM 12Z
DATA AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.


.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THIS DRY BUT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW /ALONG
WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA/ WILL
HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN THEY NORMALLY MIGHT HAVE BEEN...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKY...DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY LOWERING THEM AND HAVE
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BY THE
WEEKEND... RIDGING AND THUS INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...PUSHING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S IN MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER-
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE ONLY SHOT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN
OVER A WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS...SO DID NOT GET OVERALLY SPECIFIC YET. HOWEVER...THE BEST
WINDOW LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  62  80  58 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  59  77  55 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  58  78  54 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  53  73  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 160534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT PESKY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER ESPECIALLY WHERE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINS OCCURRED ON MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING VISBYS TO
BOTTOM OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. HOWEVER
CIGS ALREADY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE...OR HEADED THAT WAY.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIP IN TAFS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 160534
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
135 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY PASSED THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT PESKY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER ESPECIALLY WHERE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINS OCCURRED ON MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING VISBYS TO
BOTTOM OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM. HOWEVER
CIGS ALREADY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE...OR HEADED THAT WAY.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIP IN TAFS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 160223
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
EXITING THE AREA AND LINGER SHOWERS ARE ENDING.  THE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.  THEREFORE...MAY SEE A FEW
STRAY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED.  THEN...WITH RECENT RAINFALL...PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE.  HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE EARLIER TO
REMOVE THE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  85  63  79 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  81  59  76 /  20  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  58  77 /  10  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  79  53  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 152352
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
750 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...FOR THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE REST OP THE EVENING...THEN A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.  AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS
MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.  THEREFORE...FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...WILL SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.  THEN...LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
FOR LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOWERING CIGS AND VIS.  THEN...TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP IN
TAFS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 152352
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
750 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...FOR THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE REST OP THE EVENING...THEN A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.  AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS
MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.  THEREFORE...FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...WILL SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z.  THEN...LATE TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
FOR LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR LOWERING CIGS AND VIS.  THEN...TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP IN
TAFS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 151935
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...SHORTWAVE CROSSING TN NOW...WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME MINIMAL POPS IN FOR
TUESDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK LIFT
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE MIN TONIGHT WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL...WITH A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN THE AREA...RELATIVELY LOW CEILINGS...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS. WILL GO WARMER THAN GFS MOS
FOR MINS TONIGHT. FRONT WILL WASH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH
THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN COAST WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
AND LIFTING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS, HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. NEXT BIG WEATHER ITEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING
IN TO MONDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NOW...BUT STILL
EARLY IN THE GAME TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AS WILL
TEMPERATURES...THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  85  63  79 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  81  59  76 /  20  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  58  77 /  10  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  79  53  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM/JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 151935
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...SHORTWAVE CROSSING TN NOW...WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME MINIMAL POPS IN FOR
TUESDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK LIFT
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE MIN TONIGHT WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL...WITH A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN THE AREA...RELATIVELY LOW CEILINGS...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS. WILL GO WARMER THAN GFS MOS
FOR MINS TONIGHT. FRONT WILL WASH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH
THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN COAST WILL CAUSE MOISTURE
AND LIFTING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS, HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. NEXT BIG WEATHER ITEM TO
AFFECT THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING
IN TO MONDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NOW...BUT STILL
EARLY IN THE GAME TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AS WILL
TEMPERATURES...THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  85  63  79 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  81  59  76 /  20  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  58  77 /  10  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  79  53  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM/JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 151800
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE SLOW TO
IMPROVE THIS MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
TN...WILL BE MOVING INTO REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCSH
IN ALL 3 SITES FOR LATTER PART OF AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS AFTERWARDS...LEAVING MAIN ISSUE THE CIGS AND
ESPECIALLY VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. ONLY A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ON TUESDAY AS IT WASHES THROUGH. NOT
TAKING CIGS DOWN AS LOW OVERALL AS VEERING WINDS MAKE FOR LESS
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. FOR
TRI...DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE ON THE VSBY DUE TO GOOD CHANCE
OF BLANKETING CIG THAT WILL SUPPRESS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 151800
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
200 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE SLOW TO
IMPROVE THIS MORNING. UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
TN...WILL BE MOVING INTO REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCSH
IN ALL 3 SITES FOR LATTER PART OF AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS AFTERWARDS...LEAVING MAIN ISSUE THE CIGS AND
ESPECIALLY VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. ONLY A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ON TUESDAY AS IT WASHES THROUGH. NOT
TAKING CIGS DOWN AS LOW OVERALL AS VEERING WINDS MAKE FOR LESS
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. FOR
TRI...DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE ON THE VSBY DUE TO GOOD CHANCE
OF BLANKETING CIG THAT WILL SUPPRESS RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GM





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities