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000
FXUS64 KMRX 010717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
E TN EARLY TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH MID DAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...WITH SOME MIX WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE VALLEYS. FREEZING LEVEL IN THE VALLEYS RISES SOME TODAY
TO NEAR 1200 FEET BEFORE FALLING TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN ON TRACK.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS A SURE BET FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. LOWER LEVELS
WILL SEE PLENTY OF MELTING WHILE SOME HAZARDOUS IMPACTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AREAWIDE TONIGHT. ZONES
THAT REMAIN IN THE FREEZE PROGRAM HAVE A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
THE GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END FOR THE YEAR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.  BY AFTERNOON...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FOR CLEARING SKIES.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.  HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK UP INTO THE 60S FOR MID WEEK.  THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL
BE A WEAK COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BUT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  30  53  33 /  20   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  29  49  30 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  49  31 /  60  10  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              38  28  43  26 / 100  40  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     SCOTT.

&&

$$

SON/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010627
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
227 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THDE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKING SOME LATE IN
THE PERIOD. A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SNOW THIS MORNING. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL FALL FROM
AROUND 1200 FEET TO NEAR THE SURFACE BY DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBY WILL BE PREVAILING WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END THIS MORNING AT CHA
BUT CONTINUE MOST OF THE PERIOD AT TYS AND TRI.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/
     SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEE-
     SCOTT.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010100
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
BOUNDARY IS NEARING A TRI-DNN LINE. COOLING IS OF COURSE MORE
SENSITIVE TO ELEVATION WITH MID 30 DEGREE READINGS NOTED ON THE
HIGHER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TERRAIN WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING
SINCE EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN EVENT BEGINS LATER TONIGHT WITH
STRONGER LIFT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW.
THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
WINTER STORM WARNING/ADVISORY STILL ON TRACK WITH BEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW SHOULD FALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY
IN TENNESSEE (LOWER TERRAIN AREAS) WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME DECENT MELTING DUE TO WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ON GRASS COVERED SURFACES. WILL TWEAK TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
MATCH CURRENT READINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  46  30  52 /  30  20   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  33  41  29  48 /  80  70  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  41  29  48 /  80  60  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  38  28  42 / 100 100  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 312338
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...FIRST WAVE OF RAIN WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHO MAY BE MOSTLY SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN.

EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISBYS TO LOWER INTO PERIODS OF IFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT TRI AND TYS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OR A MIX...EXCEPT AT CHA WHERE PRECIP IS
LESS LIKELY. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY...BUT MAY BE SLOW TO RISE OUT OF MVFR AT TRI.

PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS BELOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AS WITH THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SNOW
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE SNOW FORECAST. EXTENDING THE CURRENT ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO INCLUDE ANDERSON...UNION...GRAINGER...AND
COCKE. ALSO ADDING THE MOUNTAIN ZONE OF MONROE INTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.

WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA AREN`T QUITE MET.
NONETHELESS...WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WINDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES RIGHT OVER THE EAST TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO SC/NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
WE WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FREEZING LEVELS TO BEGIN TO PLUMMET SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND BE DOWN TO AROUND 500 TO 1K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT...LEVELS FURTHER FALL LATER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE BY AROUND 5/6AM EST. AGAIN...LITTLE
QUESTION AS TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE WARM LAYER BECOMING
SO SHALLOW. SOUNDINGS IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS INDICATE
GOOD SNOW GROWTH WITH MOISTURE ALL THE UP TO -20 DEG CELSIUS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. AREAS UP INTO SWVA AND EXTREME NETN EXPERIENCE GOOD
MOISTURE AT -20 DEG C FROM ABOUT 06Z SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME IS WHEN THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALLS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS IS HIGH. THE ADVISORY AREAS ARE WHERE THERE ARE STILL SOME
QUESTIONS. SNOW WILL FALL IN THESE AREAS...SOME PLACES EVEN SEVERAL
INCHES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ACTUALLY STICKS TO THE GROUND DUE
TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WATCH OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO EXPECTED SUBFREEZING TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOW CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE MTNS/ MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. HOWEVER...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THESE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN ANOTHER FREEZE ACROSS
SW VIRGINIA/NE TENNESSEE AND A NEAR FREEZE/FROST ELSEWHERE.

HOWEVER...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE
PREVAILING...A WARM-UP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH/COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR...AND THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  46  30  52 /  30  20   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  33  41  29  48 /  80  70  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  41  29  48 /  80  60  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  38  28  42 / 100 100  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$

TG/SR/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311943
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
343 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AS WITH THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SNOW
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE SNOW FORECAST. EXTENDING THE CURRENT ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO INCLUDE ANDERSON...UNION...GRAINGER...AND
COCKE. ALSO ADDING THE MOUNTAIN ZONE OF MONROE INTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.

WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY AS CRITERIA AREN`T QUITE MET.
NONETHELESS...WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. WINDS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES RIGHT OVER THE EAST TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO SC/NC BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
WE WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH ALONG
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FREEZING LEVELS TO BEGIN TO PLUMMET SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND BE DOWN TO AROUND 500 TO 1K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT...LEVELS FURTHER FALL LATER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
NEAR FREEZING AT THE SURFACE BY AROUND 5/6AM EST. AGAIN...LITTLE
QUESTION AS TO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE WARM LAYER BECOMING
SO SHALLOW. SOUNDINGS IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS INDICATE
GOOD SNOW GROWTH WITH MOISTURE ALL THE UP TO -20 DEG CELSIUS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. AREAS UP INTO SWVA AND EXTREME NETN EXPERIENCE GOOD
MOISTURE AT -20 DEG C FROM ABOUT 06Z SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME IS WHEN THE BULK OF THE
SNOW WILL OCCUR.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS STILL INDICATING THAT THE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALLS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS IS HIGH. THE ADVISORY AREAS ARE WHERE THERE ARE STILL SOME
QUESTIONS. SNOW WILL FALL IN THESE AREAS...SOME PLACES EVEN SEVERAL
INCHES. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ACTUALLY STICKS TO THE GROUND DUE
TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WATCH OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
DUE TO EXPECTED SUBFREEZING TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LOW CLOUD COVER /AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE MTNS/ MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. HOWEVER...CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THESE CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
RESULT IN ANOTHER FREEZE ACROSS SW VIRGINIA/NE TENNESSEE AND A NEAR
FREEZE/FROST ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE PREVAILING...A WARM-UP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR AS HIGHS CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH/COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR...AND THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK.





&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             33  46  30  52 /  30  20   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  33  41  29  48 /  80  70  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  41  29  48 /  80  60  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  38  28  42 / 100 100  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-UNION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SR/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311725 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME REDUCED TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS RAIN SHOWERS REDUCE VIS/CIGS AT
KTRI/KTYS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THESE
-SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO -SN AS CIGS/VIS LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER
TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KTYS/KTRI THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING LATE IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311444
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1044 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANGE FOR THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND DOWN INTO SWNC FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS OUR WHOLE AREA
BUT MOST OF IT STILL ISN`T REACHING THE GROUND. THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN
WE SHOULD START TO SEE MORE PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. DID TWEAK
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH UP WITH LATEST OBS. SENDING NEW
ZONES FOR THE POP INCREASE DISCUSSED ABOVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  33  46  31 /  60  20  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  33  41  30 /  70  80  60  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  33  41  30 /  90  80  60  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  32  38  28 /  90 100 100  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311145
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOW VFR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE
FREEZING LEVEL LOWERS TO NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310807
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
405 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING WINTRY FORECAST. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS SE THROUGH THE W TN VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER LOW
WITH VERY COLD CORE SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION VERY STRONG BEGINNING LATER TODAY. FREEZING LEVEL
FALLS TO BELOW 1500 FEET EARLY TONIGHT. LITTLE QUESTION AS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE WARM LAYER BECOMING SO SHALLOW. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF KNOXVILLE
FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALLS SHOULD TAPER
OFF EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VARIED ACROSS THE VALLEYS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING.



.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND AN END OF ALL SNOW.  COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOR A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. THERE REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCY WITH TIMING BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT...IS
PROGGED THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             58  33  46  31 /  60  20  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  33  41  30 /  70  80  60  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  33  41  30 /  90  80  60  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  32  38  28 /  90 100 100  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-
     WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SON/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310543
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA AND THEN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS EAST TN FRIDAY EVENING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KTRI AND TYS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE IN FOG...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT KTRI. INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP THINGS FROM LOWERING TOO FAR. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP
TO MVFR AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AT TYS AND TRI AS RAIN MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
    SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
    RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310101 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
901 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
BRINGS UPPER LOW LATE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST. HONESTLY...I HAVE NEVER SEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. VERY UN-COMMON. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK BRINGS THE
COLDER UPPER LEVEL AIR (NEAR -30C AT 500MB) DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION WITH BETTER DYNAMICS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY INTO THE TRI-CITIES AREA. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS...HOW
MUCH WILL THE SNOW STICK? SINCE THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND MORNING HOURS...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
OF THE SNOW STICKING ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES.
STILL THINK THE ROADWAYS SHOULD BE GOOD GIVEN THE WARMTH OF THE
GROUND.

IF THIS SYSTEM OCCURRED DURING JANUARY...WOULD HAVE BEEN A MUCH
DIFFERENT SNOW POTENTIAL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EVER-SO SLOWLY INTO THE AREA AND HAVE CHANGED
SKY FORECAST WORDING FOR TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE NEW ZFP AND WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  60  33  49 /   0  50  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  57  33  44 /   0  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  58  33  44 /   0  80  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  53  32  41 /   0  80  90  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 302346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. VISIBILITY SHOULD DIP TO MVFR
LEVELS AT KTRI AND TYS LATE TONIGHT IN FOG...AND POSSIBLY IFR AT
KTRI BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THINGS FROM DROPPING OFF
TOO FAR. ALSO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP TO MVFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN AT ALL THREE SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH A SEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...AHEAD
OF AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THESE CLOUDS MAY
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT MOST FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION PATCHY FOG EVERYWHERE DUE TO THE WARM WATER TEMPS
POSSIBLY CREATING ANOTHER MORNING OF FOG ALONG THE WATERWAYS. THE
MAIN STORY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPS FALLING QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS FRIDAY EVENING AND RAIN
QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE DEEP
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL (AND THUS HIGHER
SNOWFALL INTENSITIES) POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED MOST EVERYWHERE (EVEN IN
THE VALLEYS) LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT DUE TO THE WARM
GROUND TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET
MSL...BUT A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOWFALL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 5000 FEET DUE TO THE DIRECT PASSAGE OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW AND ITS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN FOR SEVERAL RUNS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND
NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SOME LOW CLOUD COVER MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ANOTHER FREEZE
/POSSIBLY A HARD ONE IN SW VA/ WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL VALLEYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE PREVAILING...A WARM-UP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S IN
MOST SPOTS. ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...GIVING THE REGION ANOTHER SHOT AT
SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL DIFFER
IN THE EXACT TIMING...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST WINDOW MAY BE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...BEFORE CLEARING THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  60  35  49 /   0  30  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  57  34  46 /   0  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  58  34  47 /   0  60  50  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  53  32  43 /   0  80  90  90
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301712 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
112 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. VIS MAY DIP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KTRI LATE
TONIGHT FROM LIGHT FOG...BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP PREVENT
THINGS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301425
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING AREAS
OF FOG ALONG MANY OF THE RIVERS THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  41  62  35 /   0   0  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  39  59  33 /   0   0  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  39  58  33 /   0   0  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  35  56  32 /   0   0  80  90
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301138
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
738 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...SOME VLIFR FLIGHT WEATHER AT TRI THIS MORNING WITH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TYS. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AT TRI AND MAY
BE GONE BY 13Z AT TYS. AFTER THIS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH A FEW AC BUILDING IN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 300754
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...RADIATION IN THE CLEAR SKY AND
CALM WIND ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM. SOME OF THE FOG IS DENSE NEAR WATER
BODIES AND WILL DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SO ADDED A
BIT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY TODAY
WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE APPROACH
AND WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
JUST BEFORE 12Z. STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF MOS NUMBERS FOR
MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE MAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
HAVE AN IMPACT FRIDAY EVENING. PEAK QG FORCING AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCUR IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FAVORABLE NW FLOW
SNOW PATTERN SETS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
UPSLOPE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCAL TERRAIN. DECREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING LOWERING POPS AND QPF BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR TN MOUNTAIN ZONES AS
WELL AS WISE...RUSSELL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VA WITH WORDING TO
SPECIFY ELEVATIONS 2500 FT AND HIGHER. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE
THAT LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES...WITH AROUND A
FOOT IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. THIS IS A BIT BELOW THE
NAM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MELTING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  41  62  35 /   0   0  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  39  59  33 /   0  10  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  39  58  33 /   0  10  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  35  56  32 /   0   0  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

20/24





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300539
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EARLY THIS MORNING THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS BECOMING
SATURATED WITH FOG FORMING NEAR WATERWAYS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS. VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT TRI AND EXPECT THIS
TERMINAL TO HOLD IN AN VLIFR TO LIFR STATE THROUGH DAYBREAK. ALSO
TYS MAY DROP INTO MVFR CONDITIONS AS WILL THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 300218
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1018 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT GENERALLY
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...PROVIDING A DRY NIGHT AND A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
SOME FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL. WILL
TWEAK SKY...TEMPS...AND DEW POINTS IN THE DATABASE...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             42  64  41  62 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  62  39  60 /   0   0  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  62  39  58 /   0   0  10  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  58  36  56 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 292320
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GIVEN RECENT
RAIN AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AT
LEAST AT TRI. WILL PUT SOME DENSE FOG IN THE TAF FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AT TRI. THINK FOG MUCH LESS LIKELY AT CHA...SO WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THERE. A BIT ON THE FENCE ABOUT FOG AT TYS...FOR NOW
TAKE VIS THERE NO LOWER THAN MVFR LEVELS.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 291926
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE
CAROLINAS...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVER A WET
GROUND TONIGHT...WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG (AND PATCHY FROST
FOR SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST TN...THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS...AND
SOUTHWEST NC) DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO COMPLETELY FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS EVERYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SETTLE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE
WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CHANGES IN PATTERN FRIDAY AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DIVES SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
NE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THEN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FREEZING
LEVEL DROPS WITH COLD AIR MASS BEHIND FRONT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REACH SEVERAL INCHES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. AREAS TO THE WEST IN THE VALLEY AND
PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY GET LIGHT AMOUNTS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING BELOW 2500 FEET. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND MAY NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY. SATURDAY
WILL BE VERY COLD MOSTLY 30S AND 40S WITH CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING AND LOWER AS SKIES CLEAR FROM SW TO NE. A FREEZE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NE AND MOUNTAINS TO 50S SOUTH. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  64  41  62 /   0   0   0  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  39  62  39  60 /   0   0  10  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  62  39  58 /   0   0  10  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              35  58  36  56 /   0   0   0  60
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291729
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALING SOME LINGERING POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OVER THE TAF SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. A
PERSISTENT WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED AT KCHA AND KTYS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MIGHT COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR TO LIMIT MUCH FOG FORMATION. THUS...
WILL JUST MENTION TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR NOW AT KTYS. AT
KTRI...WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AS TEMPS FALL TO THEIR DEWPOINTS. THUS...WILL MENTION
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KTRI TOWARDS SUNRISE.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291410
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1010 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH RADARS SHOWING SOME
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT
WILL PLAN TO UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
RAIN AND TO MENTION DECREASING CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  41  65  41 /  50   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  39  63  39 /  60   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  39  63  40 /  50   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  37  60  35 /  60   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291136
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS ARRIVED AT TAF SITES. THINK CHA WILL BE IMPROVING...TYS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE CORE PRESENTLY...TRI WILL EXPERIENCE THE CORE
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE WITH
RAIN INTENSITY...MOST SITES TEMPOED WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY BTWN 15Z-17Z AS CORE OF
RAIN MOVES EAST OF AREA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC





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