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000
FXUS64 KMRX 011129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF LIGHT FOG AT TRI AND
CHA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. THE
PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS OR TSRA ARE MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION AT TAFS SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
729 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF LIGHT FOG AT TRI AND
CHA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. THE
PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS OR TSRA ARE MUCH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION AT TAFS SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO OUR WEST TODAY FROM E TX NE TO CENTRAL INDIANA. HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SLIGHT
INSTABILITY...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO TN-NC LINE AND
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA. PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS DEPICTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST IN THOSE AREAS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED.

OPTED TO ALSO STAY DRY FOR THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT SE TN. WARMER TEMPS FOR BOTH MAXES AND MINS
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS VALUES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO VIRGINIA/
CAROLINA. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MAIN FORCING WILL BE OROGRAPHIC
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER/NEAR TERRAIN
FEATURES.  THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND SOUTH WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OVERALL...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  63  88  65 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/DH




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS
SHIFTED TO OUR WEST TODAY FROM E TX NE TO CENTRAL INDIANA. HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SLIGHT
INSTABILITY...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO TN-NC LINE AND
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA. PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS DEPICTED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST IN THOSE AREAS...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED.

OPTED TO ALSO STAY DRY FOR THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT SE TN. WARMER TEMPS FOR BOTH MAXES AND MINS
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS VALUES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO VIRGINIA/
CAROLINA. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MAIN FORCING WILL BE OROGRAPHIC
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER/NEAR TERRAIN
FEATURES.  THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND SOUTH WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

OVERALL...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  68  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  63  88  65 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/DH





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. THIS MAY AFFECT TRI SITE FOR LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...A RATHER QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS...LIGHT
WINDS AND A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010533
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
133 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL. THIS MAY AFFECT TRI SITE FOR LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...A RATHER QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS...LIGHT
WINDS AND A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010204
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STRAY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM HAS
ENDED OVER THE AREA AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010204
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STRAY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM HAS
ENDED OVER THE AREA AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010203
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STRAY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM HAS
ENDED OVER THE AREA AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010203
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STRAY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM HAS
ENDED OVER THE AREA AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.  ALL ON TRACK IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 312313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI OVERNIGHT. MVFR VIS WILL BE A
GOOD BET...AND WILL MENTION AS PREDOMINANT FOR NOW. IFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING THAT LOW FOR NOW. TYS AND CHA
SHOULD STAY VFR AS THERE WAS LESS RAIN TO WET THE GROUND LAST
NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 312313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI OVERNIGHT. MVFR VIS WILL BE A
GOOD BET...AND WILL MENTION AS PREDOMINANT FOR NOW. IFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING THAT LOW FOR NOW. TYS AND CHA
SHOULD STAY VFR AS THERE WAS LESS RAIN TO WET THE GROUND LAST
NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI OVERNIGHT. MVFR VIS WILL BE A
GOOD BET...AND WILL MENTION AS PREDOMINANT FOR NOW. IFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING THAT LOW FOR NOW. TYS AND CHA
SHOULD STAY VFR AS THERE WAS LESS RAIN TO WET THE GROUND LAST
NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312313
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
713 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TRI OVERNIGHT. MVFR VIS WILL BE A
GOOD BET...AND WILL MENTION AS PREDOMINANT FOR NOW. IFR VIS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING THAT LOW FOR NOW. TYS AND CHA
SHOULD STAY VFR AS THERE WAS LESS RAIN TO WET THE GROUND LAST
NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND LEFT BEHIND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS WE LACK ANY
MAJOR SOURCE OF LIFT, BUT SOME HIGH RES MODELS STILL WANT TO SPIT
OUT QPF IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. WENT MOSTLY DRY, BUT A
SHOWER OR 2 COULD POP UP BEFORE THE NIGHT IS DONE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80`S
WITH THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY, EXPECT THEM TO BE WARMER TOMORROW AS
WE GET MORE SUNSHINE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR WED AND THU AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/LW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND LEFT BEHIND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS WE LACK ANY
MAJOR SOURCE OF LIFT, BUT SOME HIGH RES MODELS STILL WANT TO SPIT
OUT QPF IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. WENT MOSTLY DRY, BUT A
SHOWER OR 2 COULD POP UP BEFORE THE NIGHT IS DONE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80`S
WITH THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY, EXPECT THEM TO BE WARMER TOMORROW AS
WE GET MORE SUNSHINE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR WED AND THU AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             68  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  66  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/LW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
LIKELIHOOD IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG COULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AT TRI, CURRENTLY HAVE AIR
FIELD GOING DOWN TO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
LIKELIHOOD IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG COULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AT TRI, CURRENTLY HAVE AIR
FIELD GOING DOWN TO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
LIKELIHOOD IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG COULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AT TRI, CURRENTLY HAVE AIR
FIELD GOING DOWN TO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
120 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
LIKELIHOOD IS TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. FOG COULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AT TRI, CURRENTLY HAVE AIR
FIELD GOING DOWN TO MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF TRI AT
DAYBREAK...AND STILL DRY AT TYS AND CHA. VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY TODAY
THEN POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR LATE TONIGHT AT TRI AND PERHAPS ALSO
AT TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  66  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF TRI AT
DAYBREAK...AND STILL DRY AT TYS AND CHA. VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY TODAY
THEN POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR LATE TONIGHT AT TRI AND PERHAPS ALSO
AT TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  66  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF TRI AT
DAYBREAK...AND STILL DRY AT TYS AND CHA. VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY TODAY
THEN POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR LATE TONIGHT AT TRI AND PERHAPS ALSO
AT TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  66  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE VICINITY OF TRI AT
DAYBREAK...AND STILL DRY AT TYS AND CHA. VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY TODAY
THEN POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR LATE TONIGHT AT TRI AND PERHAPS ALSO
AT TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  66  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310801
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
401 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPPER LOW THAT WAS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH 24 HOURS AGO...IS NOW INDICATED AS A TROUGH AXIS AROUND
300 MBS IN THE VICINTY OF NE TN/NW NC. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WERE ALLOWING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NC/NE TN/SW
VA. REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY RAIN FREE...BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND REALLY DO NOT GENERATE A LOT OF AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. NOTICED NOT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ON SUNDAY
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
PERSISTENT WEAK CAP FOR ESPECIALLY NE TN/SW VA. THUS...DOWNPLAYED
THE PROSPECTS OF THUNDER TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR SE TN...WHILE STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS
ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DRY FOR TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING SO I ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

FOR MAX TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO THE COOLER MOS VALUES...AND FOR MINS
TONIGHT THE GFS MOS WAS FOLLOWED.  PLEASE NOTE THAT EQUIPMENT
PROBLEMS AT TYS ASOS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN QUESTIONABLE HIGHS TEMPS
EACH DAY. THE MAX TEMPERATURE THERE ON SUNDAY WAS LIKELY SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO COOL AND WILL LIKELY BE CORRECTED AT A LATER DATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SOME OF THE REMAINS OF THE MOISTURE OF ERIKA MAY INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AIR MASS AND THE STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM AGAIN THURSDAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AROUND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  66  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310801
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
401 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPPER LOW THAT WAS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH 24 HOURS AGO...IS NOW INDICATED AS A TROUGH AXIS AROUND
300 MBS IN THE VICINTY OF NE TN/NW NC. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WERE ALLOWING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NC/NE TN/SW
VA. REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY RAIN FREE...BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND REALLY DO NOT GENERATE A LOT OF AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. NOTICED NOT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ON SUNDAY
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
PERSISTENT WEAK CAP FOR ESPECIALLY NE TN/SW VA. THUS...DOWNPLAYED
THE PROSPECTS OF THUNDER TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR SE TN...WHILE STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS
ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DRY FOR TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING SO I ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

FOR MAX TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO THE COOLER MOS VALUES...AND FOR MINS
TONIGHT THE GFS MOS WAS FOLLOWED.  PLEASE NOTE THAT EQUIPMENT
PROBLEMS AT TYS ASOS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN QUESTIONABLE HIGHS TEMPS
EACH DAY. THE MAX TEMPERATURE THERE ON SUNDAY WAS LIKELY SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO COOL AND WILL LIKELY BE CORRECTED AT A LATER DATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SOME OF THE REMAINS OF THE MOISTURE OF ERIKA MAY INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AIR MASS AND THE STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM AGAIN THURSDAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AROUND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  66  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310536
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
136 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT TRI AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH NEW CONVECTION FOR LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR CHA. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310536
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
136 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT TRI AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH NEW CONVECTION FOR LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR CHA. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310536
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
136 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT TRI AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH NEW CONVECTION FOR LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR CHA. THUS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310133
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
933 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.  PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT
RECENT RECENT RAINFALL...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED.  OVERALL...
EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...NO UPDATE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  84  68  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  84  68  89 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  85  67  89 /  30  30  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  83  64  87 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VIS AND CIGS ARE
VFR WITH THE RAIN DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT. CIGS MAY APPROACH
MVFR LEVELS AT CHA LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTH FROM GA...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 302346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VIS AND CIGS ARE
VFR WITH THE RAIN DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT. CIGS MAY APPROACH
MVFR LEVELS AT CHA LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTH FROM GA...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VIS AND CIGS ARE
VFR WITH THE RAIN DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT. CIGS MAY APPROACH
MVFR LEVELS AT CHA LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTH FROM GA...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 302346
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
746 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VIS AND CIGS ARE
VFR WITH THE RAIN DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT. CIGS MAY APPROACH
MVFR LEVELS AT CHA LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTH FROM GA...BUT WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301857
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS IT GETS SWEPT UP BY WEAK INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE RATHER WEAK AS THEY MERGE
TOGETHER AND SHOULDN`T POSE A THREAT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD RAINS. WILL
HAVE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS IN OVERNIGHT. FOG IS TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT TONIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW
MUCH CLEARING...IF ANY...CAN TAKE PLACE TOWARD EARLY MORNING. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT PATCHY FOG WORDING IN ZONES BUT A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE
RAIN. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...PWS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED BUT THERE JUST ISN`T ANY
STRONG FORCING PRESENT TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OR
PRECIP FOR THAT MATTER. WILL HAVE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
FOR TOMORROW WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND TAKES AWAY MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WITH IT. WE LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AFTER THAT, WITH THE NEXT
ROUND OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING IN WITH WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF
ERIKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDE. BETTER CHANCES WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TILL CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST. DUE TO DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVERAGE, HAVE
GONE AHEAD WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH SOME PLACES
REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  84  68  91 /  30  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  84  68  89 /  30  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  85  67  89 /  30  30  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  83  64  87 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301732
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH MIGRATING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VCTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. MVFR VIS/CIGS IN AT CHA OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS
IN AT TRI. FOG TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHOWERS
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER ANY TERMINAL PLUS AMOUNT OF CLEARING TOWARD
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301732
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH MIGRATING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VCTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. MVFR VIS/CIGS IN AT CHA OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS
IN AT TRI. FOG TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHOWERS
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER ANY TERMINAL PLUS AMOUNT OF CLEARING TOWARD
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301732
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH MIGRATING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VCTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. MVFR VIS/CIGS IN AT CHA OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS
IN AT TRI. FOG TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHOWERS
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER ANY TERMINAL PLUS AMOUNT OF CLEARING TOWARD
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301732
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH MIGRATING NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VCTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. MVFR VIS/CIGS IN AT CHA OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS
IN AT TRI. FOG TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHOWERS
PASSING DIRECTLY OVER ANY TERMINAL PLUS AMOUNT OF CLEARING TOWARD
EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301406
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW STILL
MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH AND CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. IT`S RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
MOMENT BUT THE NAM AND LATEST HRR STILL SHOW PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. ALL FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME. WILL
UPDATE ZONES TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  67  85  68 /  50  30  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  61  84  64 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301406
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW STILL
MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH AND CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. IT`S RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
MOMENT BUT THE NAM AND LATEST HRR STILL SHOW PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. ALL FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME. WILL
UPDATE ZONES TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  67  85  68 /  50  30  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  61  84  64 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301406
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1006 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW STILL
MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH AND CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. IT`S RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
MOMENT BUT THE NAM AND LATEST HRR STILL SHOW PRECIP COVERAGE
INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. ALL FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME. WILL
UPDATE ZONES TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  67  85  68 /  50  30  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  61  84  64 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION... LIGHT RAIN WILL SKIRT CHA AREA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...THEN MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT BOTH CHA AND TYS. RAIN CHANCES JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT TRI. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z MONDAY...POSSIBLY LOWER
IF RAIN DOES OCCUR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION... LIGHT RAIN WILL SKIRT CHA AREA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...THEN MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT BOTH CHA AND TYS. RAIN CHANCES JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT TRI. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z MONDAY...POSSIBLY LOWER
IF RAIN DOES OCCUR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301129
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION... LIGHT RAIN WILL SKIRT CHA AREA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...THEN MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT BOTH CHA AND TYS. RAIN CHANCES JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT TRI. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z MONDAY...POSSIBLY LOWER
IF RAIN DOES OCCUR.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300757
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS WISE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
FOR TODAY...MAINLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR MOBILE AL THIS MORNING...SPREADING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE OHX/RNK 30/00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ON THE INCREASE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
COUPLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS. HOWEVER...NAM MODEL IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE
AND QPF ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. I FAVORED THE GFS AND LATEST HRRR/
RAP MODELS...SO KEPT POPS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH 31/06Z THEN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO
KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WHILE SIMILAR MOS MINS
LOOK GOOD ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS ARE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM THE WETTER MODEL. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ERIKA HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
THEN RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY. HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY
THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF ERIKA WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  67  85  68 /  50  30  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  61  84  64 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300757
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS WISE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
FOR TODAY...MAINLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR MOBILE AL THIS MORNING...SPREADING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE OHX/RNK 30/00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ON THE INCREASE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
COUPLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS. HOWEVER...NAM MODEL IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE
AND QPF ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. I FAVORED THE GFS AND LATEST HRRR/
RAP MODELS...SO KEPT POPS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH 31/06Z THEN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO
KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WHILE SIMILAR MOS MINS
LOOK GOOD ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS ARE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM THE WETTER MODEL. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ERIKA HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
THEN RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY. HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY
THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF ERIKA WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  67  85  68 /  50  30  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  61  84  64 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300757
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
357 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...FELT IT WAS WISE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
FOR TODAY...MAINLY OVER NE TN AND SW VA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS
SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR MOBILE AL THIS MORNING...SPREADING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE OHX/RNK 30/00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ON THE INCREASE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
COUPLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS. HOWEVER...NAM MODEL IS LIKELY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE
AND QPF ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. I FAVORED THE GFS AND LATEST HRRR/
RAP MODELS...SO KEPT POPS MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS POPS.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH 31/06Z THEN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO
KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TODAY...WHILE SIMILAR MOS MINS
LOOK GOOD ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS ARE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE NAM THE WETTER MODEL. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ERIKA HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST. WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
THEN RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN TN VALLEY. HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE. FROM MID WEEK THROUGH SATURDAY
THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF ERIKA WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  67  85  68 /  50  30  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  83  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  65  86  67 /  40  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  61  84  64 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300531
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE TN...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES BY 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA
LATER TODAY...WHICH MEANS CONVECTION IS VERY UNLIKELY AT TRI THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. KEPT VCSH AT CHA FOR NOW...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHEN AND WHERE ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
ARE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300531
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE TN...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES BY 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA
LATER TODAY...WHICH MEANS CONVECTION IS VERY UNLIKELY AT TRI THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. KEPT VCSH AT CHA FOR NOW...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL
GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHEN AND WHERE ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA
ARE MORE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  WILL
UPDATE TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD AND EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  81  66  86 /  30  50  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  82  64  84 /  20  40  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  82  65  85 /  20  40  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  81  61  84 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.  WILL
UPDATE TO REMOVE PRE FIRST PERIOD AND EVENING WORDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  81  66  86 /  30  50  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  82  64  84 /  20  40  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  82  65  85 /  20  40  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  81  61  84 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF CHA AND TYS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOTHING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT
APPEARS LIKELY TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. BROKEN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH TRI HAVING SOME LOW
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 292328 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
728 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF CHA AND TYS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOTHING ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT
APPEARS LIKELY TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. BROKEN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH TRI HAVING SOME LOW
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...BASED ON LATEST RADAR/VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DID DECIDE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THOUGH.

UNSETTLED SHORT TERM AHEAD. WEAK UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED ACROSS
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND MERGES WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS MERGER BETWEEN FEATURES SHOULD
PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
TODAY THUS FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUNDAY NIGHT WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH MOISTURE PUMPED
IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH KEEPS MOVING OUT WE GET RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS OF THIS WRITING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERIKA HAS DISSIPATED INTO JUST A TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER THE MODELS
HAVE NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS FACT JUST YET, SOME OF THEM STILL HAVE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WILL GENERALLY GO BELOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT MODELS SPIT OUT, AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH
FORECASTED PRECIPITATION IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN WITH ERIKA. GFS IS
VERY WET NEXT WEEK WITH REMNANT MOISTURE HANDING AROUND THE AREA,
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AS IT KEEPS WETTEST AIR SOUTH AND
EAST OF US, WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF. BUT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LONG TERM SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK HIGHS START TO REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80`S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  81  66  86 /  30  50  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  82  64  84 /  20  40  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  82  65  85 /  20  40  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  81  61  84 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...BASED ON LATEST RADAR/VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DID DECIDE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THOUGH.

UNSETTLED SHORT TERM AHEAD. WEAK UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED ACROSS
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND MERGES WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS MERGER BETWEEN FEATURES SHOULD
PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
TODAY THUS FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUNDAY NIGHT WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH MOISTURE PUMPED
IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH KEEPS MOVING OUT WE GET RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS OF THIS WRITING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERIKA HAS DISSIPATED INTO JUST A TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER THE MODELS
HAVE NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS FACT JUST YET, SOME OF THEM STILL HAVE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WILL GENERALLY GO BELOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT MODELS SPIT OUT, AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH
FORECASTED PRECIPITATION IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN WITH ERIKA. GFS IS
VERY WET NEXT WEEK WITH REMNANT MOISTURE HANDING AROUND THE AREA,
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AS IT KEEPS WETTEST AIR SOUTH AND
EAST OF US, WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF. BUT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LONG TERM SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK HIGHS START TO REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80`S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  81  66  86 /  30  50  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  82  64  84 /  20  40  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  82  65  85 /  20  40  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  81  61  84 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291910
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...BASED ON LATEST RADAR/VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DID DECIDE TO ADD IN SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY...MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY THOUGH.

UNSETTLED SHORT TERM AHEAD. WEAK UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED ACROSS
GULF COAST STATES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND ALSO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AND MERGES WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS MERGER BETWEEN FEATURES SHOULD
PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
TODAY THUS FAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUNDAY NIGHT WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH MOISTURE PUMPED
IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH KEEPS MOVING OUT WE GET RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. AS OF THIS WRITING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ERIKA HAS DISSIPATED INTO JUST A TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER THE MODELS
HAVE NOT CAUGHT ON TO THIS FACT JUST YET, SOME OF THEM STILL HAVE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WILL GENERALLY GO BELOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT MODELS SPIT OUT, AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH
FORECASTED PRECIPITATION IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN WITH ERIKA. GFS IS
VERY WET NEXT WEEK WITH REMNANT MOISTURE HANDING AROUND THE AREA,
WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER AS IT KEEPS WETTEST AIR SOUTH AND
EAST OF US, WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF. BUT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN THE LONG TERM SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK HIGHS START TO REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80`S WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  81  66  86 /  30  50  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  82  64  84 /  20  40  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  82  65  85 /  20  40  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  81  61  84 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WEAK LOW ACROSS GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS
AT CHA WHERE VCTS IS INCLUDED. RANDOM AND SPOTTY NATURE OF
CONVECTION LED TO VCTS IN CHA TAF. WILL AMND AS NECESSARY. TYS AND
TRI SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF MVFR OCCUR AT CHA DUE TO A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. FOG QUESTIONABLE AT TRI TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WILL LEAVE IN 6SM VSBY FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...WEAK LOW ACROSS GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS
AT CHA WHERE VCTS IS INCLUDED. RANDOM AND SPOTTY NATURE OF
CONVECTION LED TO VCTS IN CHA TAF. WILL AMND AS NECESSARY. TYS AND
TRI SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF MVFR OCCUR AT CHA DUE TO A PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. FOG QUESTIONABLE AT TRI TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...WILL LEAVE IN 6SM VSBY FOR NOW.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 291414
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON OTHER THAN PERHAPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS WITH NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN TWEAKING HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH LATEST OBS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  70  81  67 /  30  30  60  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  67  80  65 /  10  20  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  67  80  64 /  10  20  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  79  61 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291414
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS NOT TOO
EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON OTHER THAN PERHAPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS WITH NO CHANGES OTHER
THAN TWEAKING HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH LATEST OBS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  70  81  67 /  30  30  60  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  67  80  65 /  10  20  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       86  67  80  64 /  10  20  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  79  61 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR




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