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000
FXUS64 KMRX 271908
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SATELLITE PICS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SSE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY IN DEVELOPING A
SCATTERED BAND OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. REALLY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION INDICATED (EVEN SREF)
FOR SW VA...SO I DID NOT MENTION MUCH SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THERE. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
OVER SW VA WITH TOP OF SATURATED COLUMN ONLY AROUND -10 DEGS C.

COORDINATED WITH GSP AND OPTED TO STAY LOW ON THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE SMOKIES...A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET AS IN
PREVIOUS GRIDS. THUS...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE MAIN
STORY THE FREEZE WARNING/WATCH. THE FREEZE WARNING/WATCH PRODUCT WAS
UPDATED EARLIER.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES MADE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNING...COURTESY OF A SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORED THE COLDER GFS MOS MINS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A MOS BLEND ON SUNDAY MAXES AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL RETURNS LATE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHORT WAVE
PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE DRY PERIOD COULD LAST INTO MID WEEK BUT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE FINAL THREE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GFS AND ECMWF OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. CONSALL
BLEND KEEPS CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ABOUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE STRONGER SYSTEM
TO END THE WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN
THE WORKS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  51  29  60 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  45  24  57 /  40   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       27  46  25  57 /  30   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              25  40  19  53 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271908
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SATELLITE PICS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SSE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY IN DEVELOPING A
SCATTERED BAND OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. REALLY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION INDICATED (EVEN SREF)
FOR SW VA...SO I DID NOT MENTION MUCH SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THERE. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW
OVER SW VA WITH TOP OF SATURATED COLUMN ONLY AROUND -10 DEGS C.

COORDINATED WITH GSP AND OPTED TO STAY LOW ON THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE SMOKIES...A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET AS IN
PREVIOUS GRIDS. THUS...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE MAIN
STORY THE FREEZE WARNING/WATCH. THE FREEZE WARNING/WATCH PRODUCT WAS
UPDATED EARLIER.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES MADE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNING...COURTESY OF A SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. FAVORED THE COLDER GFS MOS MINS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A MOS BLEND ON SUNDAY MAXES AS WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL RETURNS LATE.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SHORT WAVE
PRESSES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE DRY PERIOD COULD LAST INTO MID WEEK BUT FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THE FINAL THREE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH GFS AND ECMWF OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. CONSALL
BLEND KEEPS CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ABOUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE STRONGER SYSTEM
TO END THE WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN
THE WORKS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  51  29  60 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  27  45  24  57 /  40   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       27  46  25  57 /  30   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              25  40  19  53 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271826
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
226 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...SATELLITE REVEALS A NICE BREAK IN THE LOWER OVERCAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY BUT NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE BUILDING
IN WITH THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE WILL BRING...INITIALLY A VFR
DECK AND THEN TONIGHT AROUND 01Z A LOWERING MVFR CATEGORY DECK.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BETTER DAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271826
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
226 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...SATELLITE REVEALS A NICE BREAK IN THE LOWER OVERCAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY BUT NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE BUILDING
IN WITH THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE WILL BRING...INITIALLY A VFR
DECK AND THEN TONIGHT AROUND 01Z A LOWERING MVFR CATEGORY DECK.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BETTER DAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 271826
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
226 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...SATELLITE REVEALS A NICE BREAK IN THE LOWER OVERCAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY BUT NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE BUILDING
IN WITH THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE WILL BRING...INITIALLY A VFR
DECK AND THEN TONIGHT AROUND 01Z A LOWERING MVFR CATEGORY DECK.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BETTER DAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271826
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
226 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...SATELLITE REVEALS A NICE BREAK IN THE LOWER OVERCAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY BUT NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE BUILDING
IN WITH THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE WILL BRING...INITIALLY A VFR
DECK AND THEN TONIGHT AROUND 01Z A LOWERING MVFR CATEGORY DECK.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BETTER DAY ESPECIALLY AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 271345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...RAIN MOVING ENE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IN LINE
WITH FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPS MAY REBOUND A BIT FROM THE 30S AND 40S
BEFORE SPOTTY SHOWERS REDEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO GRIDS.

A LOT OF WEATHER ISSUES FOR TONIGHT WITH THE FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SMOKIES...ALL ON TRACK FOR
NOW. MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ADD A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW THERE.
PREFER TO WAIT FOR 12Z MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES. ZFP PRODUCT WILL GET AN UPDATE TO DROP ANY MORNING WORDING
...BUT GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS SHOULD BE GOOD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...RAIN MOVING ENE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IN LINE
WITH FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPS MAY REBOUND A BIT FROM THE 30S AND 40S
BEFORE SPOTTY SHOWERS REDEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO GRIDS.

A LOT OF WEATHER ISSUES FOR TONIGHT WITH THE FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SMOKIES...ALL ON TRACK FOR
NOW. MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ADD A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW THERE.
PREFER TO WAIT FOR 12Z MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES. ZFP PRODUCT WILL GET AN UPDATE TO DROP ANY MORNING WORDING
...BUT GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS SHOULD BE GOOD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271116
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
OF TRI BY 14Z. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EAST TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
ACROSS TYS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE...MAINLY AT TRI
AND TYS...DUE TO CEILING AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271116
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
OF TRI BY 14Z. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EAST TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
ACROSS TYS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE...MAINLY AT TRI
AND TYS...DUE TO CEILING AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271116
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
OF TRI BY 14Z. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EAST TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
ACROSS TYS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE...MAINLY AT TRI
AND TYS...DUE TO CEILING AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271116
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
716 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST
OF TRI BY 14Z. MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EAST TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM
THIS WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
ACROSS TYS. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE...MAINLY AT TRI
AND TYS...DUE TO CEILING AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO
SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
338 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 270738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
338 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
338 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 270738
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
338 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/
     SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270733
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
MID-MORNING. A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI...WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
WAVE WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO -30 TO -32C) STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW CAPES INCREASING TO OVER 100 J/KG...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN SHOWERS. MODELS POINT TO THE BEST AREA
OVER THE PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SMOKY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SMOKIES...
GENERALLY FROM COCKE TO MONROE COUNTIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS END WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ADVECTION OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AFTER A FREEZE
SATURDAY MORNING /WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OFF QUICKLY AS THE FIRST TROUGH
DEPARTS THE REGION. THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
THEN...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT /ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FROM A SECOND PASSING SHORTWAVE/ WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREAWIDE. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT
OF DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...IT
WILL BE A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  31  49  28 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  50  27  44  25 /  30  40   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  27  44  26 /  40  30   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  26  39  21 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEE-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME
VFR THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE
MUCH COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE
RATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP AND HAVE PLACED VCSH FOR
TRI AND TYS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN 08-14KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
132 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME
VFR THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE
MUCH COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE
RATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP AND HAVE PLACED VCSH FOR
TRI AND TYS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN 08-14KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18KTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 270120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS TO
TREND THE TEMPERATURES TO BETTER REFLECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH IS ALMOST TO THE TN/NC BORDER. LOW`S TONIGHT WILL A
DEGREE OR TWO COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  52  31  48 /  80  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  50  27  45 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  48  26  43 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  47  25  39 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270120
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS TO
TREND THE TEMPERATURES TO BETTER REFLECT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH IS ALMOST TO THE TN/NC BORDER. LOW`S TONIGHT WILL A
DEGREE OR TWO COLDER BEHIND THIS FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  52  31  48 /  80  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  50  27  45 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  48  26  43 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              39  47  25  39 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 262322
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME VIS RESTRICTION AT TIMES
IN THE SHOWERS AND FOG AND CIGS ALSO LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR
LEVELS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 262322
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME VIS RESTRICTION AT TIMES
IN THE SHOWERS AND FOG AND CIGS ALSO LOWERING TO AT LEAST MVFR
LEVELS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 261907
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
REMAINS RATHER SPARSE AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND SPARTA TN NE TO JUST WEST OF
LONDON KY. LATEST HRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA FOR THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT
CHANGE MY POP AND WEATHER GRIDS MUCH FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE TODAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS. STAYED BELOW EVEN THE COLDER MOS MAXES FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS IN THE COLDER/FAVORED AREAS
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. I ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEPT
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH...LIMITED TO MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND MTN AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR FREEZE PROGRAM AREA AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES...IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THROUGH 11 AM
EDT SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CHILLY BUT DRY START
TO THE LONG TERM AS OFFENDING DEEP EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER
SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
MODELS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GOING
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. APPLYING THE
CONSALL BLENDED APPROACH...ENDED THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN...A
RATHER COLD BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MOST PLEASANT
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WHICH TAKES A WHILE BUT ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  52  31  48 /  80  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  50  27  45 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  48  26  43 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  47  25  39 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261907
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
REMAINS RATHER SPARSE AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND SPARTA TN NE TO JUST WEST OF
LONDON KY. LATEST HRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA FOR THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT
CHANGE MY POP AND WEATHER GRIDS MUCH FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE TODAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS. STAYED BELOW EVEN THE COLDER MOS MAXES FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS IN THE COLDER/FAVORED AREAS
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. I ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEPT
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH...LIMITED TO MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND MTN AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR FREEZE PROGRAM AREA AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES...IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THROUGH 11 AM
EDT SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CHILLY BUT DRY START
TO THE LONG TERM AS OFFENDING DEEP EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER
SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
MODELS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GOING
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. APPLYING THE
CONSALL BLENDED APPROACH...ENDED THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN...A
RATHER COLD BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MOST PLEASANT
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WHICH TAKES A WHILE BUT ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  52  31  48 /  80  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  50  27  45 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  48  26  43 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  47  25  39 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261907
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
REMAINS RATHER SPARSE AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND SPARTA TN NE TO JUST WEST OF
LONDON KY. LATEST HRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA FOR THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT
CHANGE MY POP AND WEATHER GRIDS MUCH FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE TODAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS. STAYED BELOW EVEN THE COLDER MOS MAXES FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS IN THE COLDER/FAVORED AREAS
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. I ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEPT
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH...LIMITED TO MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND MTN AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR FREEZE PROGRAM AREA AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES...IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THROUGH 11 AM
EDT SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CHILLY BUT DRY START
TO THE LONG TERM AS OFFENDING DEEP EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER
SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
MODELS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GOING
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. APPLYING THE
CONSALL BLENDED APPROACH...ENDED THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN...A
RATHER COLD BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MOST PLEASANT
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WHICH TAKES A WHILE BUT ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  52  31  48 /  80  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  50  27  45 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  48  26  43 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  47  25  39 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261907
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
REMAINS RATHER SPARSE AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE COVERAGE
INCREASE AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS
THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND SPARTA TN NE TO JUST WEST OF
LONDON KY. LATEST HRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOLID
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA FOR THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT
CHANGE MY POP AND WEATHER GRIDS MUCH FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE TODAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS. STAYED BELOW EVEN THE COLDER MOS MAXES FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS IN THE COLDER/FAVORED AREAS
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. I ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEPT
SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH...LIMITED TO MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND MTN AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR FREEZE PROGRAM AREA AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES...IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THROUGH 11 AM
EDT SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CHILLY BUT DRY START
TO THE LONG TERM AS OFFENDING DEEP EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER
SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH
MODELS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GOING
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. APPLYING THE
CONSALL BLENDED APPROACH...ENDED THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN...A
RATHER COLD BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MOST PLEASANT
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WHICH TAKES A WHILE BUT ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  52  31  48 /  80  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  50  27  45 /  80  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       40  48  26  43 /  80  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  47  25  39 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-
     GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-
     SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS LIMITING
SHOWER PRODUCTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACED SOME VCSH IN THE TERMINALS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NOTED
WITH THE BOUNDARY. SOME CHILLY AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
TONS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS SO IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR
DETERIORATING TO IFR FLIGHT WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 261727
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS LIMITING
SHOWER PRODUCTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACED SOME VCSH IN THE TERMINALS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
RAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS NOTED
WITH THE BOUNDARY. SOME CHILLY AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
TONS OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS SO IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR
DETERIORATING TO IFR FLIGHT WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 261405
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1005 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT THROUGH NW TN AND
THE WRN 1/3RD OF KY...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NRN
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. NAM 12KM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MUCAPES (MOST UNSTABLE) OF 800 TO 1200 J/KG FOR OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES
AT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (MAINLY ERN AREAS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT).

LATEST RAP AND HRR MODEL RUNS REALLY DON`T ADVANCE MUCH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z TODAY...SO
MAY LOWER POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR MORE IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS RUNNING ON TRACK AS FAR TEMPS AND OTHER
HOURLY FIELDS ARE CONCERNED. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO MAKE MINOR
CHANGE MENTIONED AND TO ALSO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING FROM ZFP
PRODUCT.

OUR FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN TODAY FOR ALL BUT...WISE AND RUSSELL
COUNTIES OF SW VA...AS WELL AS THE SMOKY AND NE TN MTN AREAS. WE
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE FREEZE PROGRAM AREAS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261405
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1005 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT THROUGH NW TN AND
THE WRN 1/3RD OF KY...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NRN
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. NAM 12KM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MUCAPES (MOST UNSTABLE) OF 800 TO 1200 J/KG FOR OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES
AT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (MAINLY ERN AREAS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT).

LATEST RAP AND HRR MODEL RUNS REALLY DON`T ADVANCE MUCH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z TODAY...SO
MAY LOWER POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR MORE IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS RUNNING ON TRACK AS FAR TEMPS AND OTHER
HOURLY FIELDS ARE CONCERNED. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO MAKE MINOR
CHANGE MENTIONED AND TO ALSO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING FROM ZFP
PRODUCT.

OUR FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN TODAY FOR ALL BUT...WISE AND RUSSELL
COUNTIES OF SW VA...AS WELL AS THE SMOKY AND NE TN MTN AREAS. WE
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE FREEZE PROGRAM AREAS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261146
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILING AT CHA THIS MORNING AND HIGHER CEILINGS AT
TYS AND TRI. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT TYS AND TRI SITES BUT BE MAINLY VFR.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
BACK TO SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 00Z T0 06Z AT CHA AND 00Z TO 12Z AT TYS AND TRI.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT CHA WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. TYS AND TRI
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261146
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILING AT CHA THIS MORNING AND HIGHER CEILINGS AT
TYS AND TRI. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT TYS AND TRI SITES BUT BE MAINLY VFR.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
BACK TO SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 00Z T0 06Z AT CHA AND 00Z TO 12Z AT TYS AND TRI.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT CHA WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. TYS AND TRI
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261146
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILING AT CHA THIS MORNING AND HIGHER CEILINGS AT
TYS AND TRI. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT TYS AND TRI SITES BUT BE MAINLY VFR.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
BACK TO SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 00Z T0 06Z AT CHA AND 00Z TO 12Z AT TYS AND TRI.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT CHA WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. TYS AND TRI
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261146
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILING AT CHA THIS MORNING AND HIGHER CEILINGS AT
TYS AND TRI. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT TYS AND TRI SITES BUT BE MAINLY VFR.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
BACK TO SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 00Z T0 06Z AT CHA AND 00Z TO 12Z AT TYS AND TRI.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT CHA WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. TYS AND TRI
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILING AT CHA THIS MORNING AND HIGHER CEILINGS AT
TYS AND TRI. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT TYS AND TRI SITES BUT BE MAINLY VFR.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
BACK TO SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 00Z T0 06Z AT CHA AND 00Z TO 12Z AT TYS AND TRI.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT CHA WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. TYS AND TRI
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILING AT CHA THIS MORNING AND HIGHER CEILINGS AT
TYS AND TRI. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT TYS AND TRI SITES BUT BE MAINLY VFR.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
BACK TO SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 00Z T0 06Z AT CHA AND 00Z TO 12Z AT TYS AND TRI.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT CHA WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. TYS AND TRI
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILING AT CHA THIS MORNING AND HIGHER CEILINGS AT
TYS AND TRI. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS. CLOUDS
SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT TYS AND TRI SITES BUT BE MAINLY VFR.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
BACK TO SHOWERS BY ABOUT 3Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM 00Z T0 06Z AT CHA AND 00Z TO 12Z AT TYS AND TRI.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT CHA WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. TYS AND TRI
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260818
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
418 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT READINGS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. A
COLD FRONT LIES OVER KY INTO NORTHERN AR AND TX APPROACHING THE MS
RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRONG WERE NOW MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE FRONT FROM WESTERN KY AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AR
INTO NORTHEAST TX. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WITH
COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES LATE
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND THEN FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT REACHING THE 30S TO NEAR 40 BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MORNING
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY
AROUND AN INCH HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OF A. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST
LAPSE RATE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE AREAS AND THE SMOKIES FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MILD WARM UP. SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S INTO THE AREA. FRONT WILL
SLOWLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  41  54  29 /  80  80  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  40  50  27 /  70  80  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       75  38  51  27 /  80  80  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  40  47  23 /  60  90  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260818
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
418 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT READINGS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. A
COLD FRONT LIES OVER KY INTO NORTHERN AR AND TX APPROACHING THE MS
RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRONG WERE NOW MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE FRONT FROM WESTERN KY AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AR
INTO NORTHEAST TX. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WITH
COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES LATE
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND THEN FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT REACHING THE 30S TO NEAR 40 BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MORNING
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY
AROUND AN INCH HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OF A. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST
LAPSE RATE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE AREAS AND THE SMOKIES FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MILD WARM UP. SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S INTO THE AREA. FRONT WILL
SLOWLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  41  54  29 /  80  80  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  40  50  27 /  70  80  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       75  38  51  27 /  80  80  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  40  47  23 /  60  90  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260818
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
418 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT READINGS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. A
COLD FRONT LIES OVER KY INTO NORTHERN AR AND TX APPROACHING THE MS
RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRONG WERE NOW MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE FRONT FROM WESTERN KY AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AR
INTO NORTHEAST TX. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WITH
COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES LATE
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND THEN FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT REACHING THE 30S TO NEAR 40 BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MORNING
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY
AROUND AN INCH HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OF A. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST
LAPSE RATE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE AREAS AND THE SMOKIES FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MILD WARM UP. SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S INTO THE AREA. FRONT WILL
SLOWLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  41  54  29 /  80  80  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  40  50  27 /  70  80  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       75  38  51  27 /  80  80  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  40  47  23 /  60  90  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260818
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
418 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT READINGS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. A
COLD FRONT LIES OVER KY INTO NORTHERN AR AND TX APPROACHING THE MS
RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME STRONG WERE NOW MAINLY JUST
ALONG THE FRONT FROM WESTERN KY AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN AR
INTO NORTHEAST TX. UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES WITH
COLD FRONT OVER OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COUNTIES LATE
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND THEN FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT REACHING THE 30S TO NEAR 40 BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MORNING
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY
AROUND AN INCH HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WISE AND RUSSELL COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OF A. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST
LAPSE RATE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NE AREAS AND THE SMOKIES FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING. UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
MILD WARM UP. SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
ON MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS S INTO THE AREA. FRONT WILL
SLOWLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             76  41  54  29 /  80  80  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  40  50  27 /  70  80  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       75  38  51  27 /  80  80  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              74  40  47  23 /  60  90  30  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
146 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO SE TN HAS PRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT CHA ALREADY TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD STAY VFR WITH HIGHER
CEILINGS THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT ALL SITES BUT
BE MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN
LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
146 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO SE TN HAS PRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT CHA ALREADY TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD STAY VFR WITH HIGHER
CEILINGS THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT ALL SITES BUT
BE MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN
LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
146 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO SE TN HAS PRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT CHA ALREADY TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD STAY VFR WITH HIGHER
CEILINGS THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT ALL SITES BUT
BE MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN
LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260546
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
146 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION... LOW CLOUDS MOVING NORTH INTO SE TN HAS PRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT CHA ALREADY TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD STAY VFR WITH HIGHER
CEILINGS THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER IN THE MORNING AT ALL SITES BUT
BE MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY AROUND 00Z CHANGING
TO SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR TO IFR IN
LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260048
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
848 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO REFLECT THE WARMING FROM TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  74  43  54 /  10  70  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  73  40  50 /  10  70  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  75  39  51 /  10  80  60  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  73  40  47 /  20  60  90  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260048
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
848 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO REFLECT THE WARMING FROM TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  74  43  54 /  10  70  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  73  40  50 /  10  70  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  75  39  51 /  10  80  60  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  73  40  47 /  20  60  90  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260048
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
848 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO REFLECT THE WARMING FROM TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  74  43  54 /  10  70  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  73  40  50 /  10  70  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  75  39  51 /  10  80  60  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  73  40  47 /  20  60  90  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260048
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
848 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO REFLECT THE WARMING FROM TODAY
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  74  43  54 /  10  70  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  73  40  50 /  10  70  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  75  39  51 /  10  80  60  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  73  40  47 /  20  60  90  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS GA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT CHA LATER
TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL
SITES BUT MAINLY AT THE VFR LEVEL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 252308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS GA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT CHA LATER
TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL
SITES BUT MAINLY AT THE VFR LEVEL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS GA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT CHA LATER
TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL
SITES BUT MAINLY AT THE VFR LEVEL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252308
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS GA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT CHA LATER
TONIGHT. TYS AND TRI SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND. AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL
SITES BUT MAINLY AT THE VFR LEVEL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251926
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...12Z MODELS
GENERALLY SIMILAR ON TIMING THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY
SO CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE MINOR OVERALL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK
PRETTY SLIM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES OF
EAST TN...SO KEPT POPS THERE BELOW 15 PERCENT. QUITE MILD MIN
TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES
GIVING WAY TO MUCAPES (MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL) OF 600 TO 800 J/KG.
TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MID TO LATE MORNING FOR WRN COUNTIES...SO
CONTINUED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR EARLY OVER OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES WITH A TREND TO FALLING
TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON EVEN FOR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST. TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO FALL ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER ANY SNOW SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...12Z GFS/MAV MOS WAS NOT AVAILABLE (NATIONWIDE) SO I
LEANED CLOSE TO 12Z NAM MOS AND MOS GUIDANCE FROM 06Z GFS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF UPPER TROFS WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD...THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPS BACK
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE BRIEF RIDGING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A QUICK-APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESUME OUR TROF
PATTERN BY MONDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD. LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE SIGNIFCANCE OF A MIDWEEK SYSTEM...WILL IT BE ANOTHER QUICK
SHORTWAVE AS PER THE ECMWF...OR WILL IT BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PER THE GFS? THE CUTOFF WOULD BE A WETTER
SCENARIO FOR US DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT GOES
BEYOND THE PRESENT FORECAST.

OF NOTE...THE COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH
LINGERING PRECIP TO PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR WINTRY MIX
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT SEEM THAT THIS WILL POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AS THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  74  43  54 /  10  70  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  73  40  50 /  10  70  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  75  39  51 /  10  80  60  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  74  40  47 /  20  60  90  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251926
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...12Z MODELS
GENERALLY SIMILAR ON TIMING THE STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY
SO CHANGES TO GRIDS WERE MINOR OVERALL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOK
PRETTY SLIM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES OF
EAST TN...SO KEPT POPS THERE BELOW 15 PERCENT. QUITE MILD MIN
TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES
GIVING WAY TO MUCAPES (MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL) OF 600 TO 800 J/KG.
TIMING OF COLD FRONT IS MID TO LATE MORNING FOR WRN COUNTIES...SO
CONTINUED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR EARLY OVER OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES WITH A TREND TO FALLING
TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON EVEN FOR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WITH SHOWERS
DECREASING FROM THE WEST. TEMPS DON`T LOOK TO FALL ENOUGH TO
CONSIDER ANY SNOW SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...12Z GFS/MAV MOS WAS NOT AVAILABLE (NATIONWIDE) SO I
LEANED CLOSE TO 12Z NAM MOS AND MOS GUIDANCE FROM 06Z GFS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF UPPER TROFS WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD...THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPS BACK
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE BRIEF RIDGING ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A QUICK-APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL RESUME OUR TROF
PATTERN BY MONDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD. LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE SIGNIFCANCE OF A MIDWEEK SYSTEM...WILL IT BE ANOTHER QUICK
SHORTWAVE AS PER THE ECMWF...OR WILL IT BE A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PER THE GFS? THE CUTOFF WOULD BE A WETTER
SCENARIO FOR US DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THAT GOES
BEYOND THE PRESENT FORECAST.

OF NOTE...THE COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH
LINGERING PRECIP TO PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR WINTRY MIX
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT SEEM THAT THIS WILL POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AS THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  74  43  54 /  10  70  60  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  73  40  50 /  10  70  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  75  39  51 /  10  80  60  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  74  40  47 /  20  60  90  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/GC




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...CUMULUS CLOUDS MORE DEVELOPED OVER WRN NC AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY OF E TN.  THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS QUITE LOW
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...CUMULUS CLOUDS MORE DEVELOPED OVER WRN NC AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY OF E TN.  THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS QUITE LOW
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251724
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
124 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...CUMULUS CLOUDS MORE DEVELOPED OVER WRN NC AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY OF E TN.  THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS QUITE LOW
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...CUMULUS CLOUDS MORE DEVELOPED OVER WRN NC AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY OF E TN.  THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS QUITE LOW
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...CUMULUS CLOUDS MORE DEVELOPED OVER WRN NC AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY OF E TN.  THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS QUITE LOW
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...CUMULUS CLOUDS MORE DEVELOPED OVER WRN NC AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY OF E TN.  THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS QUITE LOW
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...CUMULUS CLOUDS MORE DEVELOPED OVER WRN NC AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE RECENTLY
ACROSS THE SRN VALLEY OF E TN.  THREAT OF SHOWERS REMAINS QUITE LOW
FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

BREEZY S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251355
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
955 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THIS MORNING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM AIR ALOFT
WITH A 2 TO 4 DEGREE CELSIUS CAPPING INVERSION. SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS TOPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S.
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS LIMIT SHOWERS TO ERN FOOTHILLS/MTNS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUFFICIENT.

FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH AN UPDATE OF
HOURLY TEMPS AT LEAST REQUIRED BY 11 AM EDT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251355
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
955 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THIS MORNING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM AIR ALOFT
WITH A 2 TO 4 DEGREE CELSIUS CAPPING INVERSION. SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS TOPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S.
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS LIMIT SHOWERS TO ERN FOOTHILLS/MTNS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUFFICIENT.

FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH AN UPDATE OF
HOURLY TEMPS AT LEAST REQUIRED BY 11 AM EDT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251050
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
650 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THINNING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ALONG
EAST COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHICAGO. LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST LIFT TODAY ALONG EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TONIGHT MOISTURE INCREASES MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE WITH FRONT IN OHIO VALLEY FINALLY MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. REMOVED POPS FROM WESTERN AREAS
BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY. CHANGED SKY
WORDING TO VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS CLOUDS ARE THINNING AS THEY MOVE
EAST. UPDATED FORECAST SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS KY/VA TO THE NORTH OF THE FORESCAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY TO
BRING BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY...STRONGEST AT TYS WITH GUSTS FROM
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250756
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE STAYED AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ON THE PLATEAU AND MID SLOPE MOUNTAIN SITES. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL POOL MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT THE SAME AS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL
BE LOW. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PICTURE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT FRONT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. STRONG SHORTWAVE FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NW
OF THE FRONT. THE SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NW SECTIONS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE E TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ...MAINLY N OF I40 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND 50S ON SUNDAY.
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  59  75  42 /  10  10  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  54  73  41 /  10  10  70  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       75  55  75  40 /  10  10  80  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              71  50  75  41 /  10  20  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250756
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE STAYED AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST ON THE PLATEAU AND MID SLOPE MOUNTAIN SITES. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL POOL MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT THE SAME AS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL
BE LOW. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PICTURE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT FRONT REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. STRONG SHORTWAVE FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NW
OF THE FRONT. THE SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NW SECTIONS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE E TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST ...MAINLY N OF I40 THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY AND 50S ON SUNDAY.
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  59  75  42 /  10  10  70  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  75  54  73  41 /  10  10  70  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       75  55  75  40 /  10  10  80  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              71  50  75  41 /  10  20  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250525
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH GENERALLY ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NORTH...MAINLY
NORTH OF TRI WEDNESDAY... BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.  FOR
NOW...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  THE RESULT WILL
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250525
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH GENERALLY ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NORTH...MAINLY
NORTH OF TRI WEDNESDAY... BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.  FOR
NOW...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  THE RESULT WILL
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250525
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH GENERALLY ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NORTH...MAINLY
NORTH OF TRI WEDNESDAY... BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.  FOR
NOW...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  THE RESULT WILL
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250525
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH GENERALLY ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NORTH...MAINLY
NORTH OF TRI WEDNESDAY... BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.  FOR
NOW...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  THE RESULT WILL
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250110 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS LOOKING GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  59  71 /  10  10  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  53  74  54  72 /  10  10  10  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  74  54  70 /  10  10  20  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  70  50  73 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 250110 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS LOOKING GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  59  71 /  10  10  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  53  74  54  72 /  10  10  10  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  74  54  70 /  10  10  20  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  70  50  73 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 250110 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS LOOKING GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  59  71 /  10  10  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  53  74  54  72 /  10  10  10  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  74  54  70 /  10  10  20  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  70  50  73 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 250110 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
910 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES QUICKLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS LOOKING GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  59  71 /  10  10  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  53  74  54  72 /  10  10  10  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  74  54  70 /  10  10  20  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  70  50  73 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 242337 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THIS TAF PERIOD.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE TRI AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  OVERALL...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242337 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THIS TAF PERIOD.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE TRI AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  OVERALL...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242337 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THIS TAF PERIOD.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE TRI AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  OVERALL...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242337 AAC
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
736 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KY/VA.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION THIS TAF PERIOD.  A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE TRI AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  OVERALL...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10KT RANGE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





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