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000
FXUS64 KMRX 271747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER EAST TN KEEPING CEILINGS NEAR
OR BELOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS BY
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM LATER TONIGHT IN NE TN BUT THEY
SHOULD BE STILL VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER EAST TN KEEPING CEILINGS NEAR
OR BELOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL LOCATIONS BY
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM LATER TONIGHT IN NE TN BUT THEY
SHOULD BE STILL VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271710
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER NEW NAM SHOWING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NW WIND FETCH STILL OVER THE HIGHER SMOKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE PARK AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THAT AREA UNTIL 600 PM BUT
ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS
EAST TN BUT STARTING TO THIN ON THE NORTHERN...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH BUT
UPPER 20S TO 30S ELSEHERE. CURRENT HIGHS LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED POPS
TO KEEP A CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 271710
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER NEW NAM SHOWING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
NW WIND FETCH STILL OVER THE HIGHER SMOKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET IN THE PARK AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THAT AREA UNTIL 600 PM BUT
ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING IN ACROSS
EAST TN BUT STARTING TO THIN ON THE NORTHERN...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH BUT
UPPER 20S TO 30S ELSEHERE. CURRENT HIGHS LOOK GOOD. ADJUSTED POPS
TO KEEP A CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
634 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOW...SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  27  49  33 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  21  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  23  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  16  39  23 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271134
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
634 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOW...SO SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  27  49  33 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  21  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  23  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  16  39  23 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 271127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
627 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY AT MVFR LEVELS
EARLY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 271127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
627 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY AT MVFR LEVELS
EARLY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 270821
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND APPEARS SOME BANDS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY.  WHILE CANNOT
TELL WHERE BETTER BANDS MAY BE...SOME PLATEAU AND VALLEY LOCATIONS
MAY PICK UP LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLATEAU. ALREADY HAVE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND AN INCH
OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE...SO WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.  WILL ISSUE AN
SPS ABOUT THE EARLY MORNING VALLEY/PLATEAU SNOW.  ONCE THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE DECREASE IN CLOUDS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.  WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY...NOT
MUCH ARGUMENT WITH MINS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED WILL START
OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES ON THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  ANY PRECIP THAT PUSHES IN
EARLY ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD FALL A LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX.  HOWEVER...CURRENT TIMING SHOULD BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...EXPECT
MOSTLY RAIN.  ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL DOMINATE WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PROVIDING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  27  49  33 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  21  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  23  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  16  39  23 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/MJB




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270821
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND APPEARS SOME BANDS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY.  WHILE CANNOT
TELL WHERE BETTER BANDS MAY BE...SOME PLATEAU AND VALLEY LOCATIONS
MAY PICK UP LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLATEAU. ALREADY HAVE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND AN INCH
OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE...SO WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.  WILL ISSUE AN
SPS ABOUT THE EARLY MORNING VALLEY/PLATEAU SNOW.  ONCE THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE DECREASE IN CLOUDS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.  WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY...NOT
MUCH ARGUMENT WITH MINS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED WILL START
OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES ON THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  ANY PRECIP THAT PUSHES IN
EARLY ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD FALL A LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX.  HOWEVER...CURRENT TIMING SHOULD BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...EXPECT
MOSTLY RAIN.  ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL DOMINATE WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PROVIDING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  27  49  33 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  21  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  23  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  16  39  23 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 270530
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT PROBABILITIES LOW ENOUGH  CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MVFR LEVELS EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 270530
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT PROBABILITIES LOW ENOUGH  CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MVFR LEVELS EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 270005 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND BRING
IN SNOW WORDING A FEW HOURS EARLIER. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS, BUT COULD SEE SOME ON GRASS, ROOFS, AND
OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED SPS AREA TO GO ALONG
WITH THIS THOUGH PROCESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THE SMOKIES, AND STILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  46  28  48 /  30  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  41  22  44 /  30  20   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  41  23  45 /  30  20   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              26  37  18  41 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 270005 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE RAIN/SNOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND BRING
IN SNOW WORDING A FEW HOURS EARLIER. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS, BUT COULD SEE SOME ON GRASS, ROOFS, AND
OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED SPS AREA TO GO ALONG
WITH THIS THOUGH PROCESS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THE SMOKIES, AND STILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  46  28  48 /  30  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  41  22  44 /  30  20   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  41  23  45 /  30  20   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              26  37  18  41 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 262319
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
619 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINK LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND
KEEPING US AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT ARE STRUGGLING TO ACTUALLY PRODUCE
ANYTHING AT THE SURFACE. CHANCE THAT -SN COULD IMPACT ALL
KCHA/KTRI/KTYS STARTING AROUND 01Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262319
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
619 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THINK LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND
KEEPING US AT MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BUT ARE STRUGGLING TO ACTUALLY PRODUCE
ANYTHING AT THE SURFACE. CHANCE THAT -SN COULD IMPACT ALL
KCHA/KTRI/KTYS STARTING AROUND 01Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 262026
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...BASED ON CALLS TO SMOKY MTN
PARK HEADQUARTERS...SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OCCURRING ABOVE
3000 FEET. NEWFOUND GAP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE RATE OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION HAS SLOWED WITH AROUND 5 INCHES TOTAL FOR SNOW DEPTH.

HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM WE DO SEE AN AREA OF POTENTIAL SNOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KY AND NRN MIDDLE TN. MODELS SEEM TO BE
SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY E AND SE OVERNIGHT AS VORTICITY CHANNELS
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TOP OF SATURATED COLUMN
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH (AROUND -10
DEGS C). LIGHT QPF PROGGED TO HUG THE TN-NC LINE AT LEAST THROUGH
12Z TO 15Z TUESDAY...SO AGREED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH RNK AND GSP GRIDS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS FOR TUESDAY WITH SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OR ENDING AFTER 18Z. SLIGHTLY LOWERED BOTH
MIN TEMP GRID FOR TONIGHT AND MAX TEMP GRID ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO
THE COLDER MOS TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MODELS STILL
SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP...WITH GFS
BRINGING IN THE PRECIP EARLY IN THE MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...CHANGING
TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AS TEMPS WARM UP. RAIN WILL THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SUN`S
SETTING...AND BY FRIDAY MORNING...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET
UP WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SW VA...AND
NE TN. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN FOR A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER INTIMIDATING LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN FOR ALMOST EVERY SINGLE SYSTEM THIS
WINTER...THIS FAR OUT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIGHT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH ALIGNMENT WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS TO NEED TO INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS. WOULD
EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE
TO THE NORTHWEST PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP...BUT AM
HESITANT TO SAY THIS SYSTEM`S FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...SEEING
AS HOW THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH SNOWFALL SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  46  28  48 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  41  22  44 /  30  20   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  41  23  45 /  30  20   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              26  37  18  41 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 262026
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...BASED ON CALLS TO SMOKY MTN
PARK HEADQUARTERS...SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OCCURRING ABOVE
3000 FEET. NEWFOUND GAP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE RATE OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION HAS SLOWED WITH AROUND 5 INCHES TOTAL FOR SNOW DEPTH.

HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM WE DO SEE AN AREA OF POTENTIAL SNOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KY AND NRN MIDDLE TN. MODELS SEEM TO BE
SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY E AND SE OVERNIGHT AS VORTICITY CHANNELS
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TOP OF SATURATED COLUMN
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH (AROUND -10
DEGS C). LIGHT QPF PROGGED TO HUG THE TN-NC LINE AT LEAST THROUGH
12Z TO 15Z TUESDAY...SO AGREED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH RNK AND GSP GRIDS.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS FOR TUESDAY WITH SNOW
TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OR ENDING AFTER 18Z. SLIGHTLY LOWERED BOTH
MIN TEMP GRID FOR TONIGHT AND MAX TEMP GRID ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO
THE COLDER MOS TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR
WILL MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MODELS STILL
SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY  NIGHT LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP...WITH GFS
BRINGING IN THE PRECIP EARLY IN THE MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL BELOW FREEZING. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...CHANGING
TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AS TEMPS WARM UP. RAIN WILL THEN
CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SUN`S
SETTING...AND BY FRIDAY MORNING...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET
UP WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SW VA...AND
NE TN. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN FOR A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER INTIMIDATING LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN FOR ALMOST EVERY SINGLE SYSTEM THIS
WINTER...THIS FAR OUT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIGHT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH ALIGNMENT WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS TO NEED TO INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS. WOULD
EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE
TO THE NORTHWEST PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP...BUT AM
HESITANT TO SAY THIS SYSTEM`S FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...SEEING
AS HOW THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH SNOWFALL SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             31  46  28  48 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  29  41  22  44 /  30  20   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       29  41  23  45 /  30  20   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              26  37  18  41 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1222 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...NW WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE ADVECTING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED A
BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FOR TRI GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN TO AT LEAST MVFR TO IFR. COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR NOW AT ANY
TAF SITE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  31  47  28 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  30  41  22 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  42  24 /  50  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  25  35  18 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261722
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1222 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...NW WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE ADVECTING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CARRIED A
BRIEF MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FOR TRI GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.

MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN TO AT LEAST MVFR TO IFR. COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION FOR NOW AT ANY
TAF SITE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  31  47  28 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  30  41  22 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  42  24 /  50  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  25  35  18 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261443
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES STAYED ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY
START TO LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY...AS NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OCCURS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS
TO BE AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AND UP BASED ON SNOWFALL REPORTS SO
FAR THIS MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS STILL LIKELY TOO WARM FOR MUCH NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES. WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 4 PM EST FOR THE ERN MTNS WHERE ESTIMATING
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL SO FAR. NW UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS COULD SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER INCH OR SO...AS NOTED IN
FORECAST PRODUCTS.

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT WILL LIKELY FRESHEN GRIDS AND PRODUCTS
LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  31  47  28 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  30  41  22 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  42  24 /  50  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  25  35  18 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261443
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
942 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES STAYED ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT BUT MAY
START TO LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY...AS NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OCCURS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVEL APPEARS
TO BE AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AND UP BASED ON SNOWFALL REPORTS SO
FAR THIS MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS STILL LIKELY TOO WARM FOR MUCH NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES. WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 4 PM EST FOR THE ERN MTNS WHERE ESTIMATING
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL SO FAR. NW UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS COULD SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER INCH OR SO...AS NOTED IN
FORECAST PRODUCTS.

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK BUT WILL LIKELY FRESHEN GRIDS AND PRODUCTS
LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  31  47  28 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  30  41  22 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  42  24 /  50  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  25  35  18 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261114 CCA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL
PULL AWAY...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN. WILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY AT TRI.
CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY NORTH.
CIGS MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD AT TYS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS AT CHA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 261114 CCA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL
PULL AWAY...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN. WILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY AT TRI.
CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY NORTH.
CIGS MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD AT TYS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS AT CHA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 261111
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
611 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL
PULL AWAY...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN. WILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AROUND...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY AT TRI.
CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY NORTH.
CIGS MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD AT TYS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS AT CHA.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
346 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH WILL PULL AWAY TODAY...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN.  EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT
OF MOISTURE.  EXPECT TO PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OVER SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND WILL EXTEND ADVISORY FOR EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 4 PM.  WILL ALSO REISSUE SPS FOR SOME OF
THE PLATEAU AND SW VA.  GFS WANTS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
TONIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...BUT OTHER MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THIS SO WILL JUST KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS MAINLY NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...USED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS WELL AS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THERE STILL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE
TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE PEAKS ABOVE FIVE
THOUSAND FEET IN THE SMOKIES. DRIER AIR STREAMS IN FOR LATER IN THE
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE
IN FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED...POSSIBLY WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIP IF THE ACTION STARTS EARLY IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. SHOULD BE RAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CONCEPT OF
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH SOME DEEP MOISTURE LAGGING
BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING...A TRANSITION TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES
DON`T APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR IN LIQUID FORM. AFTER ALL...IT IS STILL WINTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  31  47  28 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  30  41  22 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  42  24 /  50  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  25  35  18 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
346 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH WILL PULL AWAY TODAY...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN.  EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND
NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT
FAVORABLE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT
OF MOISTURE.  EXPECT TO PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OVER SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND WILL EXTEND ADVISORY FOR EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 4 PM.  WILL ALSO REISSUE SPS FOR SOME OF
THE PLATEAU AND SW VA.  GFS WANTS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
TONIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...BUT OTHER MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THIS SO WILL JUST KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS MAINLY NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...USED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS WELL AS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THERE STILL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE
TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE PEAKS ABOVE FIVE
THOUSAND FEET IN THE SMOKIES. DRIER AIR STREAMS IN FOR LATER IN THE
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE
IN FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED...POSSIBLY WITH SOME FROZEN
PRECIP IF THE ACTION STARTS EARLY IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
SURFACE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. SHOULD BE RAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CONCEPT OF
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH SOME DEEP MOISTURE LAGGING
BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING...A TRANSITION TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES
DON`T APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR IN LIQUID FORM. AFTER ALL...IT IS STILL WINTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  31  47  28 /  20  10   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  30  41  22 /  50  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  42  24 /  50  20  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              41  25  35  18 /  80  20  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260539
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1239 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL AWAY...WITH
SOME COLDER AIR PUSHING IN. WILL SEE SOME INTERMITTENT RAIN...WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY AT TRI. CIGS WILL DROP
TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS...BUT EXPECT THEM TO RISE A BIT LATER
TODAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260539
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1239 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL AWAY...WITH
SOME COLDER AIR PUSHING IN. WILL SEE SOME INTERMITTENT RAIN...WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING ESPECIALLY AT TRI. CIGS WILL DROP
TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS...BUT EXPECT THEM TO RISE A BIT LATER
TODAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 260219
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
919 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO A COUPLE OF HOURLY DATA SETS, BUT
OVERALL FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS HAVE STAYED UP,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WERE
A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED TODAY. STILL BELIEVE MOST OF
THE INCOMING PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID IN THE VALLEY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE PLATEAU AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             37  42  31  46 /  70  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  35  42  26  40 /  80  60  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  41  29  41 /  80  50  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  40  24  35 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 260219
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
919 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO A COUPLE OF HOURLY DATA SETS, BUT
OVERALL FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS HAVE STAYED UP,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WERE
A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED TODAY. STILL BELIEVE MOST OF
THE INCOMING PRECIP SHOULD BE LIQUID IN THE VALLEY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE PLATEAU AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             37  42  31  46 /  70  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  35  42  26  40 /  80  60  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  41  29  41 /  80  50  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  40  24  35 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252336
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
636 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD START TO
IMPACT TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY -RA
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT SWITCHING OVER TO
-SN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM, SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS IN
THE TAFS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT GETS CLOSER. IN
ADDITION LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BRINGING THEM DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 252336
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
636 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD START TO
IMPACT TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY -RA
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IT SWITCHING OVER TO
-SN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM, SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS IN
THE TAFS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT GETS CLOSER. IN
ADDITION LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BRINGING THEM DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251931
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
231 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...PASSING
JUST TO THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY...TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP SEVERAL DEGREES...WHICH WILL
CAUSE A WARM START TO THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN. MID AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA...LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE PRECIP. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE PLATEAU AND MAKE THEIR
WAY EAST.

AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...THESE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN
DECENTLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STAY FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGH THE MIDLEVELS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL AFTER THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SO THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. WITH THE TREND THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING...AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HAVE SETTLED ON 1-3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UP TO 1
INCH IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PLATEAU COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IN THE
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TOO
WARM FOR MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A DUSTING TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THESE
AMOUNTS...WILL GO WITH AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
EAST TENNESSEE.

TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP...WITH
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND AFTER THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PROBABLY A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE SWEEP ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. I
OPTED TO BACK OFF ON THE QPF AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. NOT REALLY LOOKING LIKE EVEN ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAVORED HIGH
TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

DRY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS THURSDAY. KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR JUST
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR REGION IN LINE WITH THE LIGHTER QPF NOTED FROM
12Z GFS MODEL. THE LOW POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY ARE FOR THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER A
GREAT DEAL WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 7 MODEL BLEND AND NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES CARRY 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH I
BLENDED WITH. OF COURSE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (WINTER) OUR
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             37  42  31  46 /  70  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  35  42  26  40 /  80  60  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  41  29  41 /  80  50  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  40  24  35 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251931
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
231 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...PASSING
JUST TO THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY...TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP SEVERAL DEGREES...WHICH WILL
CAUSE A WARM START TO THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN. MID AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA...LOWERING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE PRECIP. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE PLATEAU AND MAKE THEIR
WAY EAST.

AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...THESE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN
DECENTLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STAY FAIRLY MOIST
THROUGH THE MIDLEVELS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL AFTER THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SO THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MID MORNING. WITH THE TREND THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING...AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HAVE SETTLED ON 1-3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UP TO 1
INCH IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PLATEAU COUNTIES. OTHERWISE IN THE
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TOO
WARM FOR MORE THAN FLURRIES OR A DUSTING TO DEVELOP. DUE TO THESE
AMOUNTS...WILL GO WITH AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES...WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
EAST TENNESSEE.

TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP...WITH
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT MORE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND AFTER THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PROBABLY A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE SWEEP ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. I
OPTED TO BACK OFF ON THE QPF AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY. NOT REALLY LOOKING LIKE EVEN ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAVORED HIGH
TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

DRY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS THURSDAY. KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR JUST
CHANCE POPS FOR OUR REGION IN LINE WITH THE LIGHTER QPF NOTED FROM
12Z GFS MODEL. THE LOW POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY ARE FOR THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER A
GREAT DEAL WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 7 MODEL BLEND AND NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES CARRY 20
TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH I
BLENDED WITH. OF COURSE...GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (WINTER) OUR
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             37  42  31  46 /  70  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  35  42  26  40 /  80  60  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       34  41  29  41 /  80  50  20  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  40  24  35 /  80  60  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AS
CEILINGS LOWER AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA IN THE LATE EVENING. TOMORROW
MORNING...RAIN/SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR CHA. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL
END AT KTYS BY MID MORNING...AND REMAIN AT KTRI THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW...IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR EACH SITE IN THE EARLY MORNING.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1247 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AS
CEILINGS LOWER AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA IN THE LATE EVENING. TOMORROW
MORNING...RAIN/SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR CHA. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL
END AT KTYS BY MID MORNING...AND REMAIN AT KTRI THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW...IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR EACH SITE IN THE EARLY MORNING.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251508
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MOVING OUT TOMORROW. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF LIFT. ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BEFORE...AS IT SEEMS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST
WON`T ADD UP. SPS IS STILL IN EFFECT AND WILL WATCH FOR AN
ADVISORY. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT UPDATE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  37  42  29 /  40  70  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  35  42  29 /  30  80  50  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  34  41  29 /  40  80  50  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  34  40  26 /  10  80  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW




000
FXUS64 KMRX 251508
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1008 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...MOVING OUT TOMORROW. AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING OF LIFT. ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BEFORE...AS IT SEEMS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST
WON`T ADD UP. SPS IS STILL IN EFFECT AND WILL WATCH FOR AN
ADVISORY. WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT UPDATE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  37  42  29 /  40  70  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  35  42  29 /  30  80  50  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  34  41  29 /  40  80  50  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  34  40  26 /  10  80  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

JW





000
FXUS64 KMRX 251115
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
615 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING BY EARLY TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DIP TO MVFR LEVELS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND
LOWER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 251115
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
615 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING BY EARLY TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DIP TO MVFR LEVELS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND
LOWER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 250831
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN PULL AWAY ON MONDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW.  EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN
MOVING IN LATE TODAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING TONIGHT.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.  PRECIP TYPE
STILL PROBLEMATIC...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STAY TOO WARM FOR MUCH SNOW IN MOST VALLEY AREAS.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD PICK UP SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND MAY END UP
BEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEVEL ON
AMOUNTS...WILL JUST ISSUE AN SPS TALKING ABOUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR NOW. WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A BIT MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...STAYED THE COURSE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS KEEPING SLIGHT THROUGH LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOWFALL SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE THE MOUNTAINS
COULD PICK UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE PEAKS ACROSS THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING TO AS
MUCH AS ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND MORRISTOWN
NORTHEAST INTO THE TRI-CITIES AREA...PERHAPS A SMIDGE MORE ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH IN NO HURRY TO MOVE AWAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPSLOPE
SNOW SITUATION SHOULD END BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE. IN THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE AS MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAILING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LATER WEEK FEATURE JUST ADDS MORE
COLD AIR TO THE MIX KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A BIT OF
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE BACK IN THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  38  42  29 /  40  70  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  38  42  29 /  30  80  50  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  37  41  29 /  40  80  50  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  35  40  26 /  10  80  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 250831
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN PULL AWAY ON MONDAY.  MODELS
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OUR NORTHERN BORDER...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW.  EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN
MOVING IN LATE TODAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING TONIGHT.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.  PRECIP TYPE
STILL PROBLEMATIC...BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STAY TOO WARM FOR MUCH SNOW IN MOST VALLEY AREAS.  HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD PICK UP SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND MAY END UP
BEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEVEL ON
AMOUNTS...WILL JUST ISSUE AN SPS TALKING ABOUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL
FOR NOW. WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS A BIT MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...STAYED THE COURSE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS KEEPING SLIGHT THROUGH LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW SNOWFALL SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE THE MOUNTAINS
COULD PICK UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE PEAKS ACROSS THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING TO AS
MUCH AS ONE INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND MORRISTOWN
NORTHEAST INTO THE TRI-CITIES AREA...PERHAPS A SMIDGE MORE ACROSS
THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH IN NO HURRY TO MOVE AWAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPSLOPE
SNOW SITUATION SHOULD END BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE. IN THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE AS MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON ANOTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAILING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LATER WEEK FEATURE JUST ADDS MORE
COLD AIR TO THE MIX KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A BIT OF
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE BACK IN THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             54  38  42  29 /  40  70  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  38  42  29 /  30  80  50  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  37  41  29 /  40  80  50  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              51  35  40  26 /  10  80  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250535
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1235 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING BY EARLY TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR LEVELS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 250535
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1235 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING BY EARLY TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR LEVELS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 250158
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
858 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO A FEW OF THE SKY CATEGORIES, BUT OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  36  42 /   0  30  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  35  40 /   0  20  60  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  50  35  40 /   0  40  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              27  50  35  37 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250158
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
858 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO A FEW OF THE SKY CATEGORIES, BUT OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  36  42 /   0  30  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  35  40 /   0  20  60  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  50  35  40 /   0  40  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              27  50  35  37 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 250158
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
858 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO A FEW OF THE SKY CATEGORIES, BUT OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  36  42 /   0  30  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  35  40 /   0  20  60  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  50  35  40 /   0  40  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              27  50  35  37 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BR OVERNIGHT, IF WINDS CALM DOWN AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OUT. -RA LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST, BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE JUST AFTER 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242323
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF BR OVERNIGHT, IF WINDS CALM DOWN AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OUT. -RA LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST, BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE JUST AFTER 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 242015
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...TODAY/S DEPARTED SYSTEM AND SUNDAY NIGHT/S CLIPPER. A
FAIR NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR LINGERING
CLOUDS UP NORTH AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO THE PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
20/30 PCT CHANCE THEY WILL SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY BEFORE
SUNDOWN. THE HEART OF THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR SUN NGT AND MON...SEE
BELOW.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE DURING THE
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THEN WARMER BY MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SOME CHANGES BUT THE END
RESULT WITH BOTH MODELS LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE LESS SNOW COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 850MB LOW PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN KY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS EAST TN. THE
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK PUTS US BACK IN PLAY FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
BUT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE JUST LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY
TYPE OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST OF
THE MODELS IN TERMS OF MOISTURE BUT IT TOO IS WARM IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS LIKE THE NAM. THE NAM WANTS TO BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH
WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWVA...THE FAR NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE ACCUMS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DUE TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IT BRINGS IN. WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH...THE
CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH OF I-40 A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH...NETN UP TO AN
INCH...SWVA 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND ABOVE 3K FEET 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP
TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
DIVES SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY NORTHWARD BUT THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE HIGH
TERRAIN COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH ACROSS SWVA AND THE SMOKIES BUT
ELSEWHERE TRACE AMOUNTS ARE ALL THAT SEEM POSSIBLE.

THE TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN RIDGE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLDER TEMPS AND PRECIP. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S AND BY THURSDAY MID TO UPPER
40S AND NEAR 50. BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ROLL THROUGH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  36  42 /   0  30  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  35  40 /   0  20  60  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  50  35  40 /   0  40  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              27  50  35  37 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC/SR




000
FXUS64 KMRX 242015
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...TODAY/S DEPARTED SYSTEM AND SUNDAY NIGHT/S CLIPPER. A
FAIR NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR LINGERING
CLOUDS UP NORTH AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO THE PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
20/30 PCT CHANCE THEY WILL SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY BEFORE
SUNDOWN. THE HEART OF THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR SUN NGT AND MON...SEE
BELOW.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE DURING THE
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THEN WARMER BY MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SOME CHANGES BUT THE END
RESULT WITH BOTH MODELS LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE LESS SNOW COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 850MB LOW PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN KY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS EAST TN. THE
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK PUTS US BACK IN PLAY FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
BUT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE JUST LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY
TYPE OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST OF
THE MODELS IN TERMS OF MOISTURE BUT IT TOO IS WARM IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS LIKE THE NAM. THE NAM WANTS TO BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH
WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWVA...THE FAR NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE ACCUMS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DUE TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IT BRINGS IN. WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. AS OF NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH...THE
CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH OF I-40 A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH...NETN UP TO AN
INCH...SWVA 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND ABOVE 3K FEET 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP
TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
DIVES SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY NORTHWARD BUT THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE HIGH
TERRAIN COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH ACROSS SWVA AND THE SMOKIES BUT
ELSEWHERE TRACE AMOUNTS ARE ALL THAT SEEM POSSIBLE.

THE TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN RIDGE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLDER TEMPS AND PRECIP. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S AND BY THURSDAY MID TO UPPER
40S AND NEAR 50. BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ROLL THROUGH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  54  36  42 /   0  30  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  50  35  40 /   0  20  60  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  50  35  40 /   0  40  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              27  50  35  37 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC/SR





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