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000
FXUS64 KMRX 020539
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY (EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS) AND WET
GROUND HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO ALREADY DEVELOP OVER EAST
TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE
TO FOG THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WHILE INCREASING LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG PRODUCING STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINS AT ALL TAF SITES. BEST COVERAGE BETWEEN 20Z MONDAY
THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY.

CEILINGS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING PRODUCING MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 020147
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...WITH LACK OF HEATING...THE AIR MASS IS STABILIZING A
BIT AND CONVECTION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  78  60  72 /  50  80  70  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  75  58  71 /  50  70  70  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  74  59  70 /  50  80  60  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  74  57  70 /  50  70  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 020147
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...WITH LACK OF HEATING...THE AIR MASS IS STABILIZING A
BIT AND CONVECTION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  78  60  72 /  50  80  70  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  75  58  71 /  50  70  70  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  74  59  70 /  50  80  60  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  74  57  70 /  50  70  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 020004
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WITH RECENT RAINFALL...POCKETS
OF FOG MAY FORM OVER THE AREA FOR LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
THEN...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 020004
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WITH RECENT RAINFALL...POCKETS
OF FOG MAY FORM OVER THE AREA FOR LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
THEN...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS W TN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT OF THE FRONT
AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FOR E TN...SW
VA AND SW NC. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WANE IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA
WILL OCCUR MONDAY.

TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL MEANDER INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE NEED THE RAINFALL JUST NOT ALL AT ONCE. PW VALUES FOR
MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE 1 INCH TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW ROADWAYS IMPACTED BY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... ANOTHER EVENING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SITUATED NEAR US. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME PLACES
WILL HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH (WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH) AND SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEATING, HOWEVER,
LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM IN OUR AREA COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREATS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND TAKES WITH IT MOST OF
THE RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL
CHANCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE WILL BE MORE SPORADIC WITH
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THIS FIRST
FRONT AND BE BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY DEPICT A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY WITH THIS SECONDARY FRONT, BUT CURRENT
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL MUCH MORE LIMITED LEADING TO
ONLY CHANCE RAINFALL AND LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS. BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTED SLATED TO BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THIS FORECAST. WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONT, WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE SMALL CHANCE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IN THE TOPS OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
FLIRTING WITH BELOW FREEZING.

AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
OFF TO OUR EAST A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING US TO
QUICKLY WARM UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AREA GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND MANY PLACES REACHING 80
DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  78  60  72 /  50  80  70  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  75  58  71 /  50  70  70  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  74  59  70 /  50  80  60  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  74  57  70 /  50  70  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011737
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER N AL...N GA AND WRN NC. THUNDERSTORMS OVER N AL WILL
MOVE ENE AND BY LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE CONVECTION FIRE OVER NE
AL AND SRN TN VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW THAT SHRA OR TSRA WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES HOWEVER BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KCHA. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS PERHAPS AS LOW AS IFR AND PATCHY FOG
PARTICULARLY FOR KTRI NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011449
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1049 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT-TERM ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN              83 63 78 59 / 50 40 70 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN   81 63 77 59 / 40 50 70 70
OAK RIDGE, TN                        82 63 76 58 / 50 50 70 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN               80 59 77 57 / 50 50 70 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011449
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1049 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT-TERM ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN              83 63 78 59 / 50 40 70 70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN   81 63 77 59 / 40 50 70 70
OAK RIDGE, TN                        82 63 76 58 / 50 50 70 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN               80 59 77 57 / 50 50 70 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011127
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
727 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...JET DYNAMICS IS PLACING THE NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THIS DIFLUENCE
ALONG WITH CAPES OF 500-1000 JKG IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TRI AND TYS. THIS LIFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 15Z...SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION...DENSE FOG AT TYS THIS MORNING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
14Z.

FOR TODAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.  PLENTY OF MIXING AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISM WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS.
WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAIN
SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS AS PLENTY OF MIXING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010813
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET IS PRODUCING DIFLUENCE
ALOFT OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...BUT QUITE MOIST HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
CONVECTION COMING TO AN END. BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME ALLOWING SKY COVER TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING AIRMASS TO BECOME FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING TO
KEEP COVERAGE TO ONLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF JET STREAKS MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JETS WILL
ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING OVER THE AREA. SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW...TRAINING OF CELLS
IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT OF DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S
EARLY THURSDAY AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S MOUNTAINS AND 60S LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
AND THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST PARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
LATE SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MORE SUN SHINES OVER THOSE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  63  78  59 /  50  40  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  63  77  59 /  40  50  70  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  76  58 /  50  50  70  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  59  77  57 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 010531
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
131 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...JET DYNAMICS IS PLACING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNDER
THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THIS DIFLUENCE ALONG
WITH CAPES OF 500-1000 JKG IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LIFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z...SO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. BESIDES THE CONVECTION...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT ESPECIALLY TRI THIS
MORNING.

FOR TODAY...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
PLENTY OF MIXING AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME FAIRLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISM WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAIN SPEEDS
OF 10-15KTS AS PLENTY OF MIXING ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  79  63  78 /  80  60  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  79  63  77 /  80  70  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  63  77 /  80  60  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  77  59  76 /  90  70  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010052
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
850 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE PRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  79  63  78 /  80  60  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  79  63  77 /  80  70  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  63  77 /  80  60  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  77  59  76 /  90  70  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010052
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
850 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE PRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  79  63  78 /  80  60  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  79  63  77 /  80  70  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  63  77 /  80  60  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  77  59  76 /  90  70  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
750 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAMES FOR THIS WILL BE THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...THEN ANOTHER ROUND BETWEEN 12Z TO 19Z AND A
THIRD ROUND MAY BE APPROACHING THE AREA AND COULD REACH INTO SOME
LOCATIONS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.  IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.  IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES ACROSS A TAF SITE...BE
PREPARED FOR LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VIS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS...SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WINDS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY CURRENTLY.
THE INTENSITIES HAVE NOT IMPROVED WITH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. TEMPERATURES IN THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT HELPED CLEAR SOME CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDED
MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIKE ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE OUT OF MS/AL INTO E TN. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 9PM ET AND MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE RE-
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM AS UPPER SOUTHWEST
FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS.

A MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM SPC STILL EXISTS FOR SUNDAY SO A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AGAIN
SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WILL SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE AT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THINK SOME OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FURTHER TO OUR NORTH, BUT IN OUR AREA WE WILL SEE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SOME SHEAR TO HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN SOME OF
THE STORMS, BUT STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY END
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT.

WE ONLY TAKE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM
BRINGS MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WITH IT A SURGE OF MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WHEN THE LOW PASSES NEAR AREA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY AS
THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEMS
OVER OUR AREA. WHAT THEY DO AGREE ON IS THAT A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM VARIES WILDLY DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG TERM MODEL YOU
LOOK AT. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
PERIODS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OVERALL MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL
MODEL AGREEMENT IS BETTER IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  79  63  78 /  80  60  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  79  63  77 /  80  70  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  63  77 /  80  60  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  77  59  76 /  90  70  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301746
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
146 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY AND
PARTS OF N GA WERE MOVING NNE. BATCH OF SHOWERS/-TSRA MOVING
TOWARDS KTYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO KTRI BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SECOND WAVE OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY FIRST
AFFECTING KCHA AFTER SUNSET MOVING NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
SHOWERS RE-DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER 09Z
IN REGARDS TO REDEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS POSSIBLE LOW VSBY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN              81 63 80 63 / 50 70 60 40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN   79 63 81 63 / 60 70 60 50
OAK RIDGE, TN                        78 63 81 62 / 60 80 60 50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN               78 60 79 58 / 60 70 70 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301436
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1036 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND PARTS
OF SW VA THIS MORNING. FARTHER WEST A FEW POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THICK CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND A WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER N GA AND N AL. THE WARM
FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE FIRST WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
NOON AND 2PM ET WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
8PM AND MIDNIGHT ET. WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST. ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER AS
WELL AS TWEAKED A FEW SKY GRIDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL/DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  63  80  63 /  60  70  60  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  79  63  81  63 /  60  70  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       78  63  81  62 /  60  80  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  60  79  58 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301130
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
730 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THIS
MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. APPROACHING
UPPER FORCING AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS BEST COVERAGE ACROSS TYS AND TRI...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP. SOME OF THESE STORMS ACROSS CHA AND TYS
COULD BE STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG/ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
HAIL.

FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVENING STORMS...THEN COVERAGE
DECREASING BY LATE EVENING. SOME MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT TRI AND TYS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300816
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
416 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...AN ACTIVE COUPLE DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A SERIES JET STREAKS
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE TROUGH TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ENHANCING THE
LIFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE UPPER JETS WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH 850MB
WINDS OF 30KTS...WHICH WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE BOTH
LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASING.
CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE ENHANCED ALOFT
THIS BOUNDARY. THE PLATEAU AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY IS THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED THE
AREA UNDER MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ENDING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MODELS SHOW LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING NORTH BUT ANOTHER SURGE
OF MOISTURE MOVING NE FROM MS ALONG FRONT TO OVERRUN THE FORECAST
AREA BY EITHER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES CONTINUES EARLY WEEK AND
ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY. GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
COLDER AIR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST MONDAY JUST
BEHIND FRONT IN THE 70S THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GFS IS STILL BRINGING UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH TOWARD FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW
EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW AND
MOVING IT UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN EITHER
CASE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS NE HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  63  80  63 /  60  70  60  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  63  81  63 /  60  70  60  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  63  81  62 /  60  80  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              79  60  79  58 /  60  70  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 300529
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. APPROACHING
UPPER FORCING AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS BY AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS ACROSS CHA AND TYS COULD BE STRONG STORMS
WITH STRONG/ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300140
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
940 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...WILL SEE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE
TN/NORTHERN AL SLOWLY PUSHES INTO EAST TN.  A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY REACH INTO THE REGION...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED FOR ONLY ISOLATED WORDING.  ALSO...DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINING OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE NIGHT. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND ADJUST PRECIP/THUNDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  81  65  82 /  20  60  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  80  63  81 /  10  70  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  63  81 /  20  70  70  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  79  58  80 /  20  70  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 292349
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
749 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...WILL SEE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE
TN/NORTHERN AL SLOWLY PUSHES INTO EAST TN.  A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS
MAY REACH INTO THE REGION...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL
NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.  THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THOUGH THE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS.  AN APRPOACHING FRONTAL BOUDNARY WILL BRING IN A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ACROSS TAF STIES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291852
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
252 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER N MS AND W TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.

ONE CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT THAT BEGINS MOVING OUT OF NORTH GEORGIA/ALABAMA
SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES BETTER AND WHILE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...ALBEIT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW UNTIL LATE MORNING (AFTER
9AM EDT). THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE STORMS
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR MOST
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS SW NC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FRONT RETREATING BACK NORTHWARD
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LIKELY
MOST OF THE AREA WOULD MOSTLY SHOWERS, BUT IN OUR FAR WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN COMBINE WITH
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME STRONG STORMS. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
POTENTIAL SEVERE INGREDIENTS OVER OUR AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE FOR LARGE HAIL SUNDAY EVENING TO BE A THREAT, BUT AS USUAL OUT
HERE STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN WITH OUR NEXT ROUND OF SYSTEMS. GFS IS STILL FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST OF
US UNTIL A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER US TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT FURTHER BACK
LEADING TO PROLONGED RAINFALL EARLY IN THE WEAK, BUT IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, BUT AGAIN MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW TO HANDLE A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE BEHIND IT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
WILL END ON A COLD NOTE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  81  65  82 /  20  60  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  80  63  81 /  10  70  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  63  81 /  20  70  70  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  79  58  80 /  20  70  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291852
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
252 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER N MS AND W TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE.

ONE CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT THAT BEGINS MOVING OUT OF NORTH GEORGIA/ALABAMA
SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE NAM TENDS TO HANDLE SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES BETTER AND WHILE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...ALBEIT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW UNTIL LATE MORNING (AFTER
9AM EDT). THE MAIN SHORTWAVE PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE STORMS
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTERNOON. THAT WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR MOST
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS SW NC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FRONT RETREATING BACK NORTHWARD
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LIKELY
MOST OF THE AREA WOULD MOSTLY SHOWERS, BUT IN OUR FAR WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN COMBINE WITH
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME STRONG STORMS. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM MIDDLE
TENNESSEE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
POTENTIAL SEVERE INGREDIENTS OVER OUR AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
LOCATION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CAPE FOR LARGE HAIL SUNDAY EVENING TO BE A THREAT, BUT AS USUAL OUT
HERE STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE WHAT
WILL HAPPEN WITH OUR NEXT ROUND OF SYSTEMS. GFS IS STILL FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT AND KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST OF
US UNTIL A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER US TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT FURTHER BACK
LEADING TO PROLONGED RAINFALL EARLY IN THE WEAK, BUT IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, BUT AGAIN MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW TO HANDLE A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE BEHIND IT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
WILL END ON A COLD NOTE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             62  81  65  82 /  20  60  70  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  61  80  63  81 /  10  70  60  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       61  79  63  81 /  20  70  70  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  79  58  80 /  20  70  60  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/SR





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO E TN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT. BY LATE MORNING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
NEAR KTYS AND KCHA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER
18Z SATURDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291714
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
114 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO E TN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT. BY LATE MORNING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
NEAR KTYS AND KCHA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER
18Z SATURDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291430
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DEBRIS
CLOUDS/CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER AR AND W TN MAY TRY TO DRIFT
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY.

UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING. NO OTHER MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  61  83  64 /   0  20  50  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  60  81  64 /   0  10  50  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  61  80  63 /   0  20  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  53  78  57 /   0  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 291122
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
722 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS AT TRI DUE TO FOG. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ONLY ALLOW SOME HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10KTS.

DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY JET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE SATURDAY AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290804
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
404 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL PRODUCE DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY JET
PULLING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW OVER MISSOURI MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN THROUGH THE EAST TN VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR SURGES BACK NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS OR STORMS. NAM MODEL SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TN LATE SATURDAY WHICH MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES EAST. NAM MODEL THEN SHOWS MORE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST AND SURFACE HIGH TRIES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NW. TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING TO THE SW OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY MOSTLY 70S BUT ONLY MID 60S TO MID 70S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MILD LOWS EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S WILL FALL TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THURSDAY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE OVER ONE INCH WILL BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  61  83  64 /   0  20  50  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  60  81  64 /   0  10  50  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  61  80  63 /   0  20  60  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  53  78  57 /   0  20  50  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







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