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000
FXUS64 KMRX 020021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
821 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TN AND KY BORDER. SOME STORMS IN GA ARE NOW WEAKENING.
REMOVED POPS FOR THE EVENING MOST AREAS BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TN SOUTHWEST VA NEAR KY BORDER AS
RIDGE FLATTENS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO APPROACH BY
MORNING TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 020021
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
821 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN TN AND KY BORDER. SOME STORMS IN GA ARE NOW WEAKENING.
REMOVED POPS FOR THE EVENING MOST AREAS BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TN SOUTHWEST VA NEAR KY BORDER AS
RIDGE FLATTENS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO APPROACH BY
MORNING TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 012345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
745 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT TYS WITH
A DROP TO MVFR A COUPLE HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. ALSO SOME MVFR FOG AT
TRI FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND COULD GO TO IFR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SOME
CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT TRI AND IN THE
AFTERNOON AT TYS. CONTINUED VCTS REMARKS FOR TRI AND ADDED IT AT
TYS AT 18Z.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE A BIT CAPPED OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUPPRESSED APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IT APPEARS STORMS ARE FIRING ON THE TERRAIN BUT WEAKEN LACKING
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT IN THE VALLEY. STAYED WITH ISOLATED PROBABILITY
INTO THE EVENING MOST SPOTS AS SOME OF THE STORMS DRIFT INTO THE
VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING. PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY AS NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AS THIS OCCURS A WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. STAYED VERY NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS/MAXES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMTH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL WORK UPON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...TO PROMOTE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BUT A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY BRING A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AROUND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  90  69  90 /  10  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  89  69  91 /  20  40  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  88  64  88 /  10  50  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMRX 011918
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...ATMOSPHERE A BIT CAPPED OFF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUPPRESSED APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
IT APPEARS STORMS ARE FIRING ON THE TERRAIN BUT WEAKEN LACKING
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT IN THE VALLEY. STAYED WITH ISOLATED PROBABILITY
INTO THE EVENING MOST SPOTS AS SOME OF THE STORMS DRIFT INTO THE
VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING. PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY AS NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AS THIS OCCURS A WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. STAYED VERY NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS/MAXES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMTH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WILL WORK UPON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...TO PROMOTE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BUT A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL PROBABLY BRING A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AROUND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  90  69  90 /  10  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  89  69  91 /  20  40  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  88  64  88 /  10  50  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMRX 011747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
147 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...SOME CONVECTION FIRING ON THE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT A TERMINAL AS HEATING
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FORMATION IN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT DEEP INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG AT TRI
TOWARD SUNRISE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY SPARKING SOME CONVECTION. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
CONVECTION TOWARD MID DAY AROUND TRI CLOSER TO THE ACTION
DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO PLACED A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 011421
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ON TERRAIN
FEATURES AND DRIFT EAST IN THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MAX TEMPS MAY BE JUST A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SPOTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 011421
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ON TERRAIN
FEATURES AND DRIFT EAST IN THE PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MAX TEMPS MAY BE JUST A TAD OPTIMISTIC SO WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SPOTS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 011114
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING AT KTRI...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KT ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LESS
TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...WITH A MARGINALLY TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN
TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION EVERYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN
REVEAL AN INVERTED-V PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WHERE DRY AIR MAY HELP TO ENCOURAGE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH SOME
CONVECTION TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF HOWEVER SHOULD STALL
AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD/FLATTENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PROMOTING CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...GOOD CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. A 30 TO
40 POP SEEMED WARRANTED MOST DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S DEPENDING ON STORM/CLOUD COVERAGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ATTM REGARDING WHICH DAY WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR COVERAGE...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  72  92  70 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  70  90  69 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  71  90  68 /  20  20  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  66  89  63 /  20  20  50  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LESS
TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. HOWEVER...WITH A MARGINALLY TO POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN
TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION EVERYWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN
REVEAL AN INVERTED-V PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WHERE DRY AIR MAY HELP TO ENCOURAGE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PUSH SOME
CONVECTION TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT ITSELF HOWEVER SHOULD STALL
AND WASH OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD/FLATTENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PROMOTING CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...GOOD CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. A 30 TO
40 POP SEEMED WARRANTED MOST DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S DEPENDING ON STORM/CLOUD COVERAGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ATTM REGARDING WHICH DAY WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR COVERAGE...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             91  72  92  70 /  20  20  30  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  70  90  69 /  20  20  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  71  90  68 /  20  20  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  66  89  63 /  20  20  50  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. WILL PLAN
TO MENTION SOME IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 010526
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AT THE TAF SITES. WILL PLAN
TO MENTION SOME IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE TOWARDS
SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO A LACK OF
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THUS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG
THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
836 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. DEEP MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OUT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ALMOST NO LIGHTNING EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH OCCURRED WITH A FEW STORMS EARLIER. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING DECREASING ACTIVITY. NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS AND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. UPDATED TO DROP RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE REST OF NIGHT AND ADJUST CURRENT TEMPERATURES DOWN
WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  93  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  90  69  90 /  20  10  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  91  69  90 /  20  10  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  90  63  89 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 010036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
836 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. DEEP MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OUT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ALMOST NO LIGHTNING EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH OCCURRED WITH A FEW STORMS EARLIER. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING DECREASING ACTIVITY. NEARLY CONTINUOUS STREAM OF
HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS AND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. UPDATED TO DROP RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE REST OF NIGHT AND ADJUST CURRENT TEMPERATURES DOWN
WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  93  71  92 /  20  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  90  69  90 /  20  10  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  91  69  90 /  20  10  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  90  63  89 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 312350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS MOVED NE FROM SE TN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE PASSED THROUGH TYS. KEPT VCTS AT CHA FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND NEAR TRI AT 01Z. AFTER THAT PRECIPITATION
DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG AROUND. KEPT ALL SITES IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT. VFR WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 312350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
750 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS MOVED NE FROM SE TN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE PASSED THROUGH TYS. KEPT VCTS AT CHA FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AND NEAR TRI AT 01Z. AFTER THAT PRECIPITATION
DECREASES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG AROUND. KEPT ALL SITES IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY LATE TONIGHT. VFR WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AIR MASS WAS SLUGGISH TO
DE-STABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
STARTING TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION (SOMEWHAT STRONG) DEVELOP
OVER NE AL AND SRN PLATEAU...WHERE MESO PAGE SHOWS 30 KTS OF SHEAR.
BASED ON THIS NEW ACTIVITY WENT IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP
MODELS. THUS...KEPT A SLIVER OF LIKELY POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SEQUATCHIE VALLEY AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING...CARRIED CHANCE POPS FROM W TO E
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST. DROPPED BACK TO
MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE LATE.

RIDGING IS NOTED BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY AND CARRIED JUST
MINIMAL POPS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR MONDAY EVENING. CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW ON TUESDAY...MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. I THINK
FOG COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN AN APPARENT LACK
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS...MOS MINS CLOSE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. FAVORED THE
WARMER MAXES MONDAY AND STAYED A BIT BELOW THE WARMER GFS MAXES ON
TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE VIEWING AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GENERATING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH DRYING
AND STABILIZING BEHIND THIS WEAK FEATURE SO KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION GOING AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN MODELED FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND SO RAISED POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER FEATURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  91  69  90 /  40  10  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  90  63  89 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AIR MASS WAS SLUGGISH TO
DE-STABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
STARTING TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION (SOMEWHAT STRONG) DEVELOP
OVER NE AL AND SRN PLATEAU...WHERE MESO PAGE SHOWS 30 KTS OF SHEAR.
BASED ON THIS NEW ACTIVITY WENT IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR AND RAP
MODELS. THUS...KEPT A SLIVER OF LIKELY POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SEQUATCHIE VALLEY AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...FOR THIS EVENING...CARRIED CHANCE POPS FROM W TO E
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES WEST. DROPPED BACK TO
MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AREAWIDE LATE.

RIDGING IS NOTED BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY AND CARRIED JUST
MINIMAL POPS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR MONDAY EVENING. CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW ON TUESDAY...MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. I THINK
FOG COULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN AN APPARENT LACK
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS...MOS MINS CLOSE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED. FAVORED THE
WARMER MAXES MONDAY AND STAYED A BIT BELOW THE WARMER GFS MAXES ON
TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE VIEWING AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY GENERATING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH DRYING
AND STABILIZING BEHIND THIS WEAK FEATURE SO KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION GOING AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN MODELED FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND SO RAISED POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER FEATURE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             69  93  71  92 /  30  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  90  69  90 /  30  10  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  91  69  90 /  40  10  10  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  90  63  89 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311752
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
152 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON RIVER OF MOIST
AIR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLACED A VICINITY THUNDER INITIATING FROM CHA TO TRI FROM AROUND
22-00Z AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02-05Z. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
AROUND. KEPT CHA AND TYS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WHILE APPLYING AN IFR
CATEGORY AT TRI LATE TONIGHT. VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 311752
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
152 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON RIVER OF MOIST
AIR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLACED A VICINITY THUNDER INITIATING FROM CHA TO TRI FROM AROUND
22-00Z AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02-05Z. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
AROUND. KEPT CHA AND TYS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WHILE APPLYING AN IFR
CATEGORY AT TRI LATE TONIGHT. VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 311350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGE FOR FORECAST THIS MORNING IS HOW FAR EAST
THE STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS AND TSRA SPREAD...AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS...MAINLY THE HRRR AND RAP...SEEM MORE
REASONABLE IN KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WRN COUNIES.
FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL
MONITOR RADAR DEVELOPMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HINDER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHO
MIN TEMPS WERE VERY MILD...SO REACHING 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IS
QUITE POSSIBLE.

FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS LOOK GOOD WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED UNLESS
THE SHOWERS WORK FURTHER EAST OF I-75 AND I-81...WHERE SCATTERED
WORDING AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  93  71 /  50  30  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  69  91  69 /  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  91  69 /  60  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  66  87  63 /  50  40  20  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 311350
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
950 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGE FOR FORECAST THIS MORNING IS HOW FAR EAST
THE STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS AND TSRA SPREAD...AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS...MAINLY THE HRRR AND RAP...SEEM MORE
REASONABLE IN KEEPING THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WRN COUNIES.
FORECAST GRIDS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL
MONITOR RADAR DEVELOPMENTS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD HINDER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHO
MIN TEMPS WERE VERY MILD...SO REACHING 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IS
QUITE POSSIBLE.

FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS LOOK GOOD WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED UNLESS
THE SHOWERS WORK FURTHER EAST OF I-75 AND I-81...WHERE SCATTERED
WORDING AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  93  71 /  50  30  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  69  91  69 /  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  91  69 /  60  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  66  87  63 /  50  40  20  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AROUND THE TAF SITES. SINCE THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES IS PROBLEMATIC...
WILL JUST MENTION VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 311121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AROUND THE TAF SITES. SINCE THE
EXACT TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES IS PROBLEMATIC...
WILL JUST MENTION VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST
VA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED (LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT)...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WEAKENS. WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN TO LOWER POPS INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
THEN FURTHER DECREASE AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A FLATTENED UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
PROMOTE CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER. ADDITIONALLY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
FAVORING THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT THE BEST DAYS FOR COVERAGE MAY BE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WASHING OUT ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A 20 TO 30 POP WARRANTED EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
/WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  93  71 /  50  30  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  69  91  69 /  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  91  69 /  60  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  66  87  63 /  50  40  20  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310715
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST
VA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED (LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT)...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WEAKENS. WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL PLAN TO LOWER POPS INTO THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
THEN FURTHER DECREASE AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A FLATTENED UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
PROMOTE CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER. ADDITIONALLY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
FAVORING THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT THE BEST DAYS FOR COVERAGE MAY BE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WASHING OUT ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A 20 TO 30 POP WARRANTED EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
/WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST HEADING TOWARD THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD PLACE THE
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERHAPS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             88  70  93  71 /  50  30  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  87  69  91  69 /  50  30  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       87  69  91  69 /  60  30  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              86  66  87  63 /  50  40  20  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING KTRI. WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS
AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT WIND FLOW...WILL NOT PLAN TO MENTION ANY FOG
AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...SO
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP. SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AT
THE TAF SITES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...WILL JUST MENTION VCTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 310054
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
854 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THATS LIFTING SLOWLY NE IS FOCUSING
ENERGY NOW OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND COULD SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY GET LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPDATED
FORECAST TO RAISE POPS WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. EASTERN AREAS WILL
BE DRIER. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE SOME BY LATE EVENING BUT THE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST. UPDATED DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES AS RAIN AS COOLED TEMPERATURES WESTERN
SECTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TOO WITH RAINFALL 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RURAL OR URBAN FLOODING.
UPDATE OUT SOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 310054
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
854 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THATS LIFTING SLOWLY NE IS FOCUSING
ENERGY NOW OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND COULD SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY GET LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPDATED
FORECAST TO RAISE POPS WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. EASTERN AREAS WILL
BE DRIER. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE SOME BY LATE EVENING BUT THE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST. UPDATED DEW
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES AS RAIN AS COOLED TEMPERATURES WESTERN
SECTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TOO WITH RAINFALL 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RURAL OR URBAN FLOODING.
UPDATE OUT SOON.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 302349
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
749 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING SE TN AT THIS
HOUR AND MOVING NE TOWARD TYS. HAVE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER VSBY IN STORMS AT CHA AND TYS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AFTER THE STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. KEPT SOME MVFR FOG AT TYS AND TRI AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD




000
FXUS64 KMRX 302349
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
749 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING SE TN AT THIS
HOUR AND MOVING NE TOWARD TYS. HAVE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOWER VSBY IN STORMS AT CHA AND TYS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AFTER THE STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. KEPT SOME MVFR FOG AT TYS AND TRI AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SPOTTY
CONVECTION POPPING OVER SE TN...AND MORE SO TO OUR SW OVER NE AL.
I ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IN LINE WITH THE SIMILAR HRRR AND RAP MODELS...WHICH SUPPORTS
LIKELY POPS OVER WRN AREAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP HIGHER POPS IN ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN PLATEAU AND
EXTREME WRN SW VA COUNTIES.

FOR SUNDAY...STAYED WITH OUR LOW END OF LIKELY POPS...WHICH ARE
HIGHER THAN 12Z MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE THE SRN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. LOWERED POPS FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MONDAY ALSO SHAPING
UP DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS...SO CUT POPS BACK TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT...AND PUSHED MAX TEMPS BACK UP TO THE SIMILAR UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S FROM 12Z MOS. OTHERWISE...12Z NAM AND GFS MOS TEMPS WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD OTHER THAN INTENSE SOLAR
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ON THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THIS CONFIGURATION MAY COAX A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY IF IT CAN MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY KEPT POPS AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AS UPPER RIDGING HANGS
AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TRENDED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SUGGESTED HIGHS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE ANNUAL LATE SUMMER LAG
IN HEATING DUE TO LONG WAVE RE-RADIATION FINALLY CATCHES UP TO US.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  87  71  93 /  60  60  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  86  70  91 /  50  60  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  84  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  65  87 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AIR MASS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SPOTTY
CONVECTION POPPING OVER SE TN...AND MORE SO TO OUR SW OVER NE AL.
I ADJUSTED THE SHORT TERM GRIDS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IN LINE WITH THE SIMILAR HRRR AND RAP MODELS...WHICH SUPPORTS
LIKELY POPS OVER WRN AREAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP HIGHER POPS IN ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR NRN PLATEAU AND
EXTREME WRN SW VA COUNTIES.

FOR SUNDAY...STAYED WITH OUR LOW END OF LIKELY POPS...WHICH ARE
HIGHER THAN 12Z MOS GUIDANCE...SINCE THE SRN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE PASSING EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS DURING PEAK HEATING. LOWERED POPS FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MONDAY ALSO SHAPING
UP DRIER THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS...SO CUT POPS BACK TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT...AND PUSHED MAX TEMPS BACK UP TO THE SIMILAR UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S FROM 12Z MOS. OTHERWISE...12Z NAM AND GFS MOS TEMPS WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...NOT MUCH FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD OTHER THAN INTENSE SOLAR
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ON THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THIS CONFIGURATION MAY COAX A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY IF IT CAN MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY KEPT POPS AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AS UPPER RIDGING HANGS
AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TRENDED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SUGGESTED HIGHS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE ANNUAL LATE SUMMER LAG
IN HEATING DUE TO LONG WAVE RE-RADIATION FINALLY CATCHES UP TO US.
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO MINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  87  71  93 /  60  60  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  86  70  91 /  50  60  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  84  69  91 /  60  60  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  87  65  87 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301801
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
201 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MOISTENING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION AND SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
INITIALLY AT CHA AND THEN TYS. ACTUALLY PLACED A PREVAILING
THUNDER GROUP AT CHA FROM AROUND 00-04Z. TAPERED THIS ACTION BACK
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH SOME STABILIZATION. PLACED SOME
MVFR FOG AT TYS AROUND SUNRISE. CONVECTION MAY NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 18Z SUNDAY SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 301801
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
201 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MOISTENING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION AND SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
INITIALLY AT CHA AND THEN TYS. ACTUALLY PLACED A PREVAILING
THUNDER GROUP AT CHA FROM AROUND 00-04Z. TAPERED THIS ACTION BACK
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH SOME STABILIZATION. PLACED SOME
MVFR FOG AT TYS AROUND SUNRISE. CONVECTION MAY NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 18Z SUNDAY SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMRX 301345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RISE ON
BOTH OHX AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS. EXPECT LIFT TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS
SPREAD SHOWERS AND TSRA INTO OUR PLATEAU AND SE TN COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAY NEED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS LOOK ON TRACK.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  71  87  71 /  50  50  60  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  71  86  69 /  40  50  60  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       88  71  84  69 /  40  50  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  85  65 /  30  50  60  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301345
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
945 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RISE ON
BOTH OHX AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS. EXPECT LIFT TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS
SPREAD SHOWERS AND TSRA INTO OUR PLATEAU AND SE TN COUNTIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO MAY NEED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS LOOK ON TRACK.

 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  71  87  71 /  50  50  60  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  71  86  69 /  40  50  60  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       88  71  84  69 /  40  50  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  85  65 /  30  50  60  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 301121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW...WILL JUST MENTION VCTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG




000
FXUS64 KMRX 301121
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEEP GULF
MOISTURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW...WILL JUST MENTION VCTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH THIS
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE
REGION A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE EVENING HOURS
/BEFORE THINGS SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT/.
REASONABLE CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT...STARTING NEXT WEEK THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
MUCH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE...SO STILL HAVE A 30 POP FOR TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORM EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  71  87  71 /  50  50  60  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  71  86  69 /  40  50  60  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       88  71  84  69 /  40  50  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  85  65 /  30  50  60  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP




000
FXUS64 KMRX 300725
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH THIS
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE
REGION A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE EVENING HOURS
/BEFORE THINGS SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT/.
REASONABLE CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT...STARTING NEXT WEEK THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
MUCH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE...SO STILL HAVE A 30 POP FOR TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORM EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  71  87  71 /  50  50  60  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  71  86  69 /  40  50  60  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       88  71  84  69 /  40  50  60  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  85  65 /  30  50  60  40
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP





000
FXUS64 KMRX 300532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH SOME
RAIN REPORTED AT KTRI YESTERDAY EVENING...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO FORM
TOWARDS SUNRISE AND WILL MENTION TEMPORARY VLIFR CONDITIONS. GULF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AND SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES IS LOW...WILL JUST MENTION VCTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION AND MORNING FOG AT KTRI...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG





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