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000
FXUS64 KMRX 300531
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
131 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...Fog development early in the period expected at both
TYS and TRI...with dense fog likely at TYS. Convective development
looks most likely north during the afternoon...so will include VCTS
at TRI.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 291916
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
316 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (tonight and tomorrow)...
The moisture on the outskirts of Bonnie that is bringing showers to
our NE sections will be shifting east this evening...and rain
chances should end by midnight. Clearing skies may lead to some
patchy fog forming in areas that receive rain today.

The NAM eagerly develops convection overnight along a boundary and
midlevel shortwave trough from OH through central KY. The GFS and
SREF also produce some light precip with this boundary/trough. There
is some elevated instability in the forecast soundings that may
support these storms as they approach our Plateau and SW VA
counties. Will have a slight chance pop north tomorrow morning with
a chance pop in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)...
Tropical depression Bonnie along the South Carolina/North Carolina
border monday evening...will continue to linger along the North
Carolina coast through early wednesday but will have little affect
on the forecast area. Showers and storms affecting the NE section of
forecast area on the outside edge of Bonnie will quickly dissipate
Monday evening so not including any showers/storms after 00Z. There
could be some residual cloud cover monday evening from Bonnie but
models show drier air mass to the west and this should move across
the TN valley early Tuesday so only slight chance showers and a few
storms Tuesday. Wednesday moisture increases a little with better
chance of showers and storms...but still more of a diurnal nature.
Temperatures will be very warm both days mid 80s to lower 90s.
Thursday cold front ahead of upper trough will be focus for
increased showers and storms. This frontal system to move only very
slowly east with better chance friday and then lingering into
saturday. Frontal system to stay just to the south again sunday.
Highs slightly cooler friday through the weekend due to clouds and
rainfall. No significant rainfall expected until thursday as cold
front approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  89  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  86  63  88 /  10  20  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       62  87  64  88 /  10  20  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  84  60  86 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/TD





000
FXUS64 KMRX 290657
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
257 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...A weak shortwave trough will
move across the region today...which will help to pull some moisture
from the tropical system northwest into our area. Best moisture and
chance for showers will be northeast areas...will carry likely PoPs
northeast mountains and high chance remainder of
northeast...tapering to slight chance for southwest parts of our
area. Instability looks limited...but will carry slight chance
thunder as well. Best chance for thunder will likely be southwest
and maybe central where stronger heating occurs. Precip forecast to
be pulling out early tonight...so just some low PoPs far northeast
early. Clouds should diminish as well...and expect some fog
development especially northeast and central.  Will not stray far
from MAV temps overall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Saturday)...Remnants of a
tropical depression over the Carolinas will be moving off early in
the period.  Overall...the first half of the extended will see
normal summer type conditions with warm temperatures and a slight
chance of diurnally driven afternoon convection.  Main threat of
convection will be over higher elevations.  A more organized band of
thunderstorms is expected over the area on Thursday as a cold front
pushes into the region.  The boundary is progged to stall somewhere
near the area through the rest of the period for an increased chance
of convection. Depending on where the boundary settles...slightly
cooler air may filter in for Friday and Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  65  89  65 /  20  10  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  63  87  63 /  30  10  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  63  87  64 /  30  10  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  57  83  61 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/MJB





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281707
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
107 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Scattered afternoon
CU will dissipate with sunset...and high to midlevel clouds will
build in ahead of the tropical system approaching the SW coastline.
Midlevel clouds will become broken to overcast by tomorrow morning.
No other impacts are expected from this system in the next 24
hours...and winds will remain light and rain chances will remain
low.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 281507 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1107 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z soundings from around the region look pretty stable this
morning...especially to our S and E at GSO...FFC...and RNK where a
large inversion is noted at the 800 mb level. This should
effectively cap convection in our eastern half this
afternoon. The HRRR and RAP generally agree with this
trend...although the HRRR appears overdone with its development of
showers at the moment. The current forecast of low chance pops
along and near the Plateau...but remove pops east of I-75. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s appear on track.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280636 CCA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...Today looks a bit less active
for convection than yesterday as boundary layer moisture should be
more limited.  Still expect some convection to develop especially
higher terrain...and will carry low PoPs all areas. For tonight
there is some question about how much moisture from the atlantic
tropical system will get pulled northwest into our area...with the
GFS more bullish than the NAM. For now will lean toward the drier
NAM but will beef up clouds especially north...and will carry slight
chance PoPs all areas for the entire night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)... Warm and humid conditions will
prevail. We will continue to find ourselves on the western extent of
the Bermuda High through most of the new week until a low pressure
trough brings slightly cooler weather late in the week...although
humidity will remain even then. Impacts of the tropical system
appear to be minimal for our area as the brunt of the system will
impact the coastal Carolinas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  64  90  67 /  20  20  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  64  85  66 /  20  20  30  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  64  86  64 /  20  20  30  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  61  82  60 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280634
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...Today looks a bit less active
for convection than yesterday as boundary layer moisture should be
more limited.  Still expect some convection to develop especially
higher terrain...and will carry low PoPs all areas. For tonight
there is some question about how much moisture from the atlantic
tropical system will get pulled northwest into our area...with the
GFS more bullish than the NAM. For now will lean toward the drier
NAM but will beef up clouds especially north...and will carry slight
chance PoPs all areas for the entire night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)... Warm and humid conditions will
prevail. We will continue to find ourselves on the western extent of
the Bermuda High through most of the new week until a low pressure
trough brings slightly cooler weather late in the week...although
humidity will remain even then. Impacts of the tropical system
appear to be minimal for our area as the brunt of the system will
impact the coastal Carolinas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  65  89  66 /  20  10  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  65  85  65 /  20  10  20  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  65  86  64 /  20  10  30  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  60  83  60 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/GC





000
FXUS64 KMRX 280533
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
133 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...How low visibility will go in fog early in the period
is problematic...and may see dense fog at both TRI and TYS although
looks more likely at TRI. Will take TYS as low as LIFR and TRI to
VLIFR. Cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm especially this
afternoon/evening...but for now probability at any given site looks
too low to include in TAF.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMRX 272318
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
718 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Storms are mostly out of the area for now and am not expecting much
in the way of redevelopment the rest of this evening/tonight. Since
the KTYS/KTRI airports received decent rainfall with these storms
it`s likely that we will see some fog development tonight.
Difficult to determine how low visibilities will get right now, but
current thoughts are that they will dip into the IFR range
overnight. Conditions will improve to VFR at all sites tomorrow
morning, with light winds continuing throughout the entire 24 hour
forecast.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

ABM





000
FXUS64 KMRX 271908
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
308 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and tomorrow)...
Ongoing showers will continue to spread northward into the Valley
through the afternoon...but with the loss of daytime heating...they
are expected to dissipate. Some areas that see rain could see some
fog develop...and will mention patchy fog for the Knoxville area.
This summer-like pattern will continue tomorrow...with diurnal
showers and thunderstorms favoring terrain areas and a northward
drift into the Valley...and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...
Warm and humid conditions will prevail the remainder of the holiday
weekend. High pressure ridge along the atlantic coast begins to break
down saturday night and sunday. A tropical or semitropical low will
move into the Carolinas and move north. To the west over the
appalachians weak high pressure dominates. Moist southerly flow will
bring isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms sunday and monday. The best chances will be over the
mountains and northeast valley. Wednesday and thursday rain chances
increase again as southerly flow increases and a weak front
approaches. This front is forecast to move into the mountains
thursday and become nearly stationary along the mountains friday.
Showers and storms will become likely in the mountains late thursday
and friday. Temperatures will be warm through the period...mostly
mid 80s to lower 90s days and 60s at night with slightly cooler
temperatures friday...especially in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  89  65  89 /  20  20  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  86  65  85 /  20  20  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  86  65  86 /  20  20  10  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  84  60  83 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/TD





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