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000
FXUS65 KMSO 181002
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
402 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As expected, showers and thunderstorms have
developed overnight across southern Idaho. This activity will
continue to move northeast across Lemhi County and southwest
Montana this morning. What perhaps hasn`t necessarily been
expected are the widespread radar echos over southwest Idaho and
eastern Oregon. Although there is little ground evidence to
suggest more than light sprinkles are hitting the ground, this
activity likely suggests that the push of moisture is a bit more
robust than models previously indicated. As such have increased
chances for precipitation across central Idaho and west central
Montana a bit for this morning with better chances still expected
late this morning through this afternoon in association with a
cold front passage.

A rather moist air mass will remain in place this evening. But
with limited instability believe showers will be largely limited
to the higher terrain and most numerous along the Montana/Idaho
border, northwest Montana and near the Canadian border. A few
showers may remain early Friday morning but instability begins to
wane during the afternoon as dry air works its way into the
region. Mostly clear conditions with calm winds will likely lead
to a seasonably cold Saturday morning with some patchy fog.
Temperatures will be right near normal Saturday afternoon as high
pressure begins to build over the area.

The next system will start to impact the Northern Rockies next
Wednesday and Thursday. There is still a lot of variability among
models on the details, but confidence is increasing quickly that
this will be a cool wet period.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the
vicinity of KSMN and KBTM this morning. However aside from
occasional lightning, the impact to visibility and cloud heights
is expected to be minimal. Elsewhere the affects of showers will
be even less. Some breezy conditions are expected this afternoon
as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 181002
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
402 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As expected, showers and thunderstorms have
developed overnight across southern Idaho. This activity will
continue to move northeast across Lemhi County and southwest
Montana this morning. What perhaps hasn`t necessarily been
expected are the widespread radar echos over southwest Idaho and
eastern Oregon. Although there is little ground evidence to
suggest more than light sprinkles are hitting the ground, this
activity likely suggests that the push of moisture is a bit more
robust than models previously indicated. As such have increased
chances for precipitation across central Idaho and west central
Montana a bit for this morning with better chances still expected
late this morning through this afternoon in association with a
cold front passage.

A rather moist air mass will remain in place this evening. But
with limited instability believe showers will be largely limited
to the higher terrain and most numerous along the Montana/Idaho
border, northwest Montana and near the Canadian border. A few
showers may remain early Friday morning but instability begins to
wane during the afternoon as dry air works its way into the
region. Mostly clear conditions with calm winds will likely lead
to a seasonably cold Saturday morning with some patchy fog.
Temperatures will be right near normal Saturday afternoon as high
pressure begins to build over the area.

The next system will start to impact the Northern Rockies next
Wednesday and Thursday. There is still a lot of variability among
models on the details, but confidence is increasing quickly that
this will be a cool wet period.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the
vicinity of KSMN and KBTM this morning. However aside from
occasional lightning, the impact to visibility and cloud heights
is expected to be minimal. Elsewhere the affects of showers will
be even less. Some breezy conditions are expected this afternoon
as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 172023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A marginally unstable atmosphere will linger into
this evening over mainly southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A weather disturbance is expected to move across north central
Idaho and west central/southwest Montana late tonight and Thursday
morning producing a few more showers.

A splitting and weakening trough of low pressure should shift
across the northern Rockies Thursday afternoon and evening. Again,
the best energy and moisture should be over southwest Montana and
Lemhi County.

The air mass will cool Thursday night into Friday, with some
drying and stabilization also expected. This should translate into
a quite cool night in the valleys Friday night.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over north
central Idaho and western Montana Saturday into Monday. This means
mostly clear skies, cool nights and quite warm afternoons (with
above normal day time temperatures). The exception may be Lemhi
County or the southern Clearwaters where some moisture from a
Great Basin weather system may creep northward by Monday.

In the longer term, recent model runs are trending towards a
wetter and cooler pattern by mid to end of next week. However,
there is still run to run inconsistencies and timing, so at this
point we have only made a modest adjustment towards a return of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers over central Idaho and southwest Montana may reach
KSMN and KBTM this afternoon and early evening, but no significant
impacts to aviation are expected. Showers will redevelop in the
same areas by Thursday morning, with a better chance of rain
reaching both terminals. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will
continue, along with light winds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 172023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
222 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A marginally unstable atmosphere will linger into
this evening over mainly southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

A weather disturbance is expected to move across north central
Idaho and west central/southwest Montana late tonight and Thursday
morning producing a few more showers.

A splitting and weakening trough of low pressure should shift
across the northern Rockies Thursday afternoon and evening. Again,
the best energy and moisture should be over southwest Montana and
Lemhi County.

The air mass will cool Thursday night into Friday, with some
drying and stabilization also expected. This should translate into
a quite cool night in the valleys Friday night.

A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over north
central Idaho and western Montana Saturday into Monday. This means
mostly clear skies, cool nights and quite warm afternoons (with
above normal day time temperatures). The exception may be Lemhi
County or the southern Clearwaters where some moisture from a
Great Basin weather system may creep northward by Monday.

In the longer term, recent model runs are trending towards a
wetter and cooler pattern by mid to end of next week. However,
there is still run to run inconsistencies and timing, so at this
point we have only made a modest adjustment towards a return of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers over central Idaho and southwest Montana may reach
KSMN and KBTM this afternoon and early evening, but no significant
impacts to aviation are expected. Showers will redevelop in the
same areas by Thursday morning, with a better chance of rain
reaching both terminals. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions will
continue, along with light winds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 170940
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...Today the upper level high pressure ridge will
gradually shift east resulting in an unseasonably hot and breezy
afternoon. Today should be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures peaking around 10 degrees above normal. Showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible over Lemhi County and perhaps as
far north as the Anaconda/Butte areas late this afternoon into
this evening.

A more focused push of moisture and energy has consistently been
forecast in the models to move from California towards Idaho and
Montana starting overnight tonight. This disturbance will initiate
widespread showers early Thursday morning with the best chances
for precipitation likely south of a line from Grangeville to
Missoula to Seeley Lake. But the heaviest or more persistent
precipitation will be over Lemhi County and the Butte/Blackfoot
Region. Elsewhere showers and thunderstorms will become
increasingly possible as instability grows due to an approaching
upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Cooler
conditions will be on hand Friday with showers tapering off Friday
night as drier air moves into the region to start the weekend.

The weekend through early next week will see above average
temperatures with a warming trend. Next Wednesday or Thursday is
really the next chance for any precipitation. However, models are
having a hard time handling the long term effects of all the
current tropical activity, which is causing a lot of variability
in the forecasts starting mid next week. Started to raise the
chances of precipitation next Wednesday and Thursday because
models are uncertain of a wet or dry pattern, and the current
tropical activity favors an active weather pattern across the
northern hemisphere next week.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible in the vicinity of KSMN and KBTM late this
afternoon into this evening. Conditions will become increasingly
more favorable for for precipitation and lowering cloud heights at
these same locations by Thursday morning. Elsewhere few, if any
impacts to aviation are expected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 170940
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...Today the upper level high pressure ridge will
gradually shift east resulting in an unseasonably hot and breezy
afternoon. Today should be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures peaking around 10 degrees above normal. Showers and/or
thunderstorms will be possible over Lemhi County and perhaps as
far north as the Anaconda/Butte areas late this afternoon into
this evening.

A more focused push of moisture and energy has consistently been
forecast in the models to move from California towards Idaho and
Montana starting overnight tonight. This disturbance will initiate
widespread showers early Thursday morning with the best chances
for precipitation likely south of a line from Grangeville to
Missoula to Seeley Lake. But the heaviest or more persistent
precipitation will be over Lemhi County and the Butte/Blackfoot
Region. Elsewhere showers and thunderstorms will become
increasingly possible as instability grows due to an approaching
upper level trough and associated surface cold front. Cooler
conditions will be on hand Friday with showers tapering off Friday
night as drier air moves into the region to start the weekend.

The weekend through early next week will see above average
temperatures with a warming trend. Next Wednesday or Thursday is
really the next chance for any precipitation. However, models are
having a hard time handling the long term effects of all the
current tropical activity, which is causing a lot of variability
in the forecasts starting mid next week. Started to raise the
chances of precipitation next Wednesday and Thursday because
models are uncertain of a wet or dry pattern, and the current
tropical activity favors an active weather pattern across the
northern hemisphere next week.

&&

.AVIATION...A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible in the vicinity of KSMN and KBTM late this
afternoon into this evening. Conditions will become increasingly
more favorable for for precipitation and lowering cloud heights at
these same locations by Thursday morning. Elsewhere few, if any
impacts to aviation are expected.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 162037
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will continue to produce cloud
cover and a few light showers this afternoon and early evening. It
is possible to even see a few lightning strikes, although this
threat will mainly be across southwest Montana and Lemhi Co in
Idaho. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain itself over the
region through Wednesday. This will translate to continued above
normal temperatures. A few showers and thunderstorms will again
be possible Wednesday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes,
mainly across southwest Montana.

A change initiate Thursday as a weak cold front and upper level
trough begins to move through western Montana and north central
Idaho. This will lead to fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some forecast models indicate that convective
activity could begin a bit earlier than normal, possibly in the
mid morning hours. aside from clouds and periods of precipitation,
winds will become breezy from the west in the afternoon.

Friday will be the coolest day of the weak as northwest flow,
cloud cover and showers remain over the region. This cooler
pattern won`t last long however, as forecast models continue to
show a strong ridge of high pressure for the weekend. A return to
dry conditions with above normal temperatures can be expected into
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Increased mid to high level cloud cover will continue
to locally reduce ceilings across western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon and evening. A few embedded showers
and possibly even a thunderstorm is possible, mainly across Lemhi
Co in Idaho into southwest Montana, including airfields KSMN and
KBTM. Cloud cover and shower activity should be on the downward
trend this evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 162037
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will continue to produce cloud
cover and a few light showers this afternoon and early evening. It
is possible to even see a few lightning strikes, although this
threat will mainly be across southwest Montana and Lemhi Co in
Idaho. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain itself over the
region through Wednesday. This will translate to continued above
normal temperatures. A few showers and thunderstorms will again
be possible Wednesday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes,
mainly across southwest Montana.

A change initiate Thursday as a weak cold front and upper level
trough begins to move through western Montana and north central
Idaho. This will lead to fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some forecast models indicate that convective
activity could begin a bit earlier than normal, possibly in the
mid morning hours. aside from clouds and periods of precipitation,
winds will become breezy from the west in the afternoon.

Friday will be the coolest day of the weak as northwest flow,
cloud cover and showers remain over the region. This cooler
pattern won`t last long however, as forecast models continue to
show a strong ridge of high pressure for the weekend. A return to
dry conditions with above normal temperatures can be expected into
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Increased mid to high level cloud cover will continue
to locally reduce ceilings across western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon and evening. A few embedded showers
and possibly even a thunderstorm is possible, mainly across Lemhi
Co in Idaho into southwest Montana, including airfields KSMN and
KBTM. Cloud cover and shower activity should be on the downward
trend this evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 160955
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
355 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WAVE OF MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST
THROUGH OREGON AND IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AT 4AM. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS
HAVING A HARD TIME STAYING TOGETHER AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HAS ONLY PRODUCED INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. BUT ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE ON THE WAY WITH MORE
MOISTURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE, SUFFICIENTLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL EXISTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LEMHI COUNTY. THIS DAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST.

ALL MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK OCCURS ON THURSDAY. IN FACT SOME DATA WOULD INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY THE NOON
HOUR. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM AND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY COOL, RESIDING NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR BEING IN THE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.AVIATION...KSMN AND KBTM WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

IV/LEACH





000
FXUS65 KMSO 160955
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
355 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WAVE OF MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST
THROUGH OREGON AND IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AT 4AM. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS
HAVING A HARD TIME STAYING TOGETHER AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE UNDER THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HAS ONLY PRODUCED INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING. BUT ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE ON THE WAY WITH MORE
MOISTURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE, SUFFICIENTLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL EXISTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LEMHI COUNTY. THIS DAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST.

ALL MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK OCCURS ON THURSDAY. IN FACT SOME DATA WOULD INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY THE NOON
HOUR. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM AND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY COOL, RESIDING NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE A WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR BEING IN THE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.AVIATION...KSMN AND KBTM WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

IV/LEACH




000
FXUS65 KMSO 152030
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
230 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will maintain its hold over western
Montana and north central Idaho through Wednesday. This will
continue above normal temperatures across the region, with many
valley locations reaching into the low to mid 80s. A weak wave of
moisture and energy is expected to move through the ridge
tomorrow, causing mainly increased cloud cover across north
central Idaho in the morning, and western Montana by mid day. A
few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorms could result as
well, however this activity should mainly occur south of
Interstate 90. Another round of isolated showers and
thunderstorms is expected once again Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, a trough of low pressure is expected to begin to move
through the region. This will result in cloudy and breezy
conditions. Fairly widespread showers are expected to develop as
well with isolated thunderstorms possible. A few of these showers
could produce some decent precipitation although confidence in a
widespread precipitation event is low at this time. Cooler shower
conditions will persist into Friday under northwest flow aloft.

For the weekend, forecast models continue to indicate another
ridge of high pressure setting up over western Montana and north
central Idaho. This will result in dry, sunny, and warm
conditions into early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Optimal flying conditions continue to be in place
across the region for the next several days with the exception of
smoke filled valley in north central Idaho. Winds should be light
with typical terrain driven breezes in the afternoon. An increase
in mid and upper level cloud cover can be expected tomorrow.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 152030
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
230 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will maintain its hold over western
Montana and north central Idaho through Wednesday. This will
continue above normal temperatures across the region, with many
valley locations reaching into the low to mid 80s. A weak wave of
moisture and energy is expected to move through the ridge
tomorrow, causing mainly increased cloud cover across north
central Idaho in the morning, and western Montana by mid day. A
few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorms could result as
well, however this activity should mainly occur south of
Interstate 90. Another round of isolated showers and
thunderstorms is expected once again Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, a trough of low pressure is expected to begin to move
through the region. This will result in cloudy and breezy
conditions. Fairly widespread showers are expected to develop as
well with isolated thunderstorms possible. A few of these showers
could produce some decent precipitation although confidence in a
widespread precipitation event is low at this time. Cooler shower
conditions will persist into Friday under northwest flow aloft.

For the weekend, forecast models continue to indicate another
ridge of high pressure setting up over western Montana and north
central Idaho. This will result in dry, sunny, and warm
conditions into early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Optimal flying conditions continue to be in place
across the region for the next several days with the exception of
smoke filled valley in north central Idaho. Winds should be light
with typical terrain driven breezes in the afternoon. An increase
in mid and upper level cloud cover can be expected tomorrow.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





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