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000
FXUS65 KMSO 212028
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
228 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A LOT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING OVER 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS AND MANY MOUNTAIN STATIONS REPORTING OVER HALF AN INCH OF
NEW LIQUID. SNOW WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET
SOUTH OF MISSOULA.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT, SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO THE
AMPLE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO WILL DRIVE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT, KEEPING THE FOG PATCHY AND
LIMITED TO AREAS SHELTERED FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALSO, MUCH LESS
RAIN FELL OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA, SO FOG IS LESS LIKELY THERE. IN
CENTRAL MONTANA, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER PREVENTING
FOG FROM FORMING IN THE GRANGEVILLE AND OROFINO OR ON THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AGAIN. A STRONG JET
STREAM WITH VERY MOIST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, JUST GLANCING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTHWEST MONTANA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, MAINLY AFFECTING TROY BEFORE MORE
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA
THURSDAY.

THE THURSDAY SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST MT AND
CENTRAL ID ALONG THE BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS. THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH A
COLDER AIRMASS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING TO THE MID SLOPES AROUND 4500FT.

&&

.AVIATION...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS, RAIN &
SNOW AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA BY 22/0300Z CAUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WANE. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW
KEEPING UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AFTER 22/0800Z WHICH COULD HELP IMPROVE CEILINGS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. CONSIDERING ALL THE RAINFALL THAT FELL AND SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR FOG EXISTS. THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO FORM WIDESPREAD FOG FROM KGPI TO KBTM, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT KSMN COULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT, THERE
COULD BE WEAK TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
     FOR THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET
     FOR THE BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 210936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
335 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...The main area of lift is going to shift over north
central Idaho and west central Montana by sunrise this morning
with light to moderate rain and a few lightning strikes. A cold
front will move through this morning causing snow levels to lower
to around 5000 feet by this afternoon, so watch out for snow
accumulations in the high terrain and over mountain passes.
Temperatures have remained warm overnight and cooler air behind
the cold front will also generally cause a cooling trend through
the day.

The main shortwave with this system will pass this afternoon with Lemhi
County Idaho and southwest Montana expecting to receive the
heaviest amount of precipitation. Precipitation will quickly
decrease this evening as the trough moves off to the east and
drier air moves in.

Wednesday now looks to be mostly dry with morning fog as weak high
pressure moves over Idaho and western Montana.

A steady stream of moisture, evident on water vapor imagery,
extends through the eastern Pacific and is forecast to pass
through the region during the end of the week and this weekend in
the form of multiple troughs. This weather pattern for the
extended forecast period will promote near normal high
temperatures, above normal low temperatures, and periods of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...Cloud cover and rain are increasing early this morning
as the next weather system moves into the region. Idaho and
western Montana will lie in the optimum lift region this morning
with moderate rain showers and even a few lightning strikes
likely. Terrain will be obscured through most of the day with high
amounts of moisture passing with the trough. This trough will pass
this afternoon keeping rain and high elevation snow in eastern
Idaho and southwest Montana. Sky cover will begin to clear out
this evening and fog will develop in many of the valleys through
the region by Wednesday morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday
     ABOVE 6000 FEET for the Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT
     Wednesday ABOVE 5000 FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday ABOVE 5000 FEET for the Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT
     Wednesday for Lolo Pass and Lost Trail Pass in the Eastern
     Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 210936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
335 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...The main area of lift is going to shift over north
central Idaho and west central Montana by sunrise this morning
with light to moderate rain and a few lightning strikes. A cold
front will move through this morning causing snow levels to lower
to around 5000 feet by this afternoon, so watch out for snow
accumulations in the high terrain and over mountain passes.
Temperatures have remained warm overnight and cooler air behind
the cold front will also generally cause a cooling trend through
the day.

The main shortwave with this system will pass this afternoon with Lemhi
County Idaho and southwest Montana expecting to receive the
heaviest amount of precipitation. Precipitation will quickly
decrease this evening as the trough moves off to the east and
drier air moves in.

Wednesday now looks to be mostly dry with morning fog as weak high
pressure moves over Idaho and western Montana.

A steady stream of moisture, evident on water vapor imagery,
extends through the eastern Pacific and is forecast to pass
through the region during the end of the week and this weekend in
the form of multiple troughs. This weather pattern for the
extended forecast period will promote near normal high
temperatures, above normal low temperatures, and periods of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...Cloud cover and rain are increasing early this morning
as the next weather system moves into the region. Idaho and
western Montana will lie in the optimum lift region this morning
with moderate rain showers and even a few lightning strikes
likely. Terrain will be obscured through most of the day with high
amounts of moisture passing with the trough. This trough will pass
this afternoon keeping rain and high elevation snow in eastern
Idaho and southwest Montana. Sky cover will begin to clear out
this evening and fog will develop in many of the valleys through
the region by Wednesday morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday
     ABOVE 6000 FEET for the Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT
     Wednesday ABOVE 5000 FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday ABOVE 5000 FEET for the Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT
     Wednesday for Lolo Pass and Lost Trail Pass in the Eastern
     Lemhi County.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 202024
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
224 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...VERY WET MOUNTAIN SNOW TOMORROW...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, STARTING DURING THE MORNING IN CENTRAL IDAHO. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5,000 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WARM ROADS WILL HELP MELT THE SNOW ON MOST AREA ROADS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SUN IS STILL UP. HOWEVER, DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW, SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS IS
LIKELY.

A BIGGER IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BACKCOUNTRY WITH LATE
SEASON HIKERS AND HUNTERS. EVEN BEFORE IT STARTS SNOWING, THIS
WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THEN ONCE IT STARTS SNOWING IT WILL BE A VERY WET,
COLD, AND MISERABLE DAY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.

THE CURRENT SCENARIO HAS THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FEED INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO AND THE BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS, THEN ACROSS THE BITTERROOT
VALLEY INTO THE SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS. GEORGETOWN LAKE AND THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND ANACONDA AND BUTTE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. MOUNTAIN
RIDGES COULD SEE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SCATTERED
SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. A BRIEF LULL
IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY, AND COULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW IMPACTS FOR AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER
06Z, EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. TOMORROW WILL SEE RAIN START TO FALL IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LOLO PASS AND LOST TRAIL PASS IN THE EASTERN LEMHI
     COUNTY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 202024
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
224 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...VERY WET MOUNTAIN SNOW TOMORROW...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, STARTING DURING THE MORNING IN CENTRAL IDAHO. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5,000 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WARM ROADS WILL HELP MELT THE SNOW ON MOST AREA ROADS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SUN IS STILL UP. HOWEVER, DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW, SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS IS
LIKELY.

A BIGGER IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BACKCOUNTRY WITH LATE
SEASON HIKERS AND HUNTERS. EVEN BEFORE IT STARTS SNOWING, THIS
WILL BE A VERY WET SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THEN ONCE IT STARTS SNOWING IT WILL BE A VERY WET,
COLD, AND MISERABLE DAY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.

THE CURRENT SCENARIO HAS THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FEED INTO CENTRAL
IDAHO AND THE BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS, THEN ACROSS THE BITTERROOT
VALLEY INTO THE SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS. GEORGETOWN LAKE AND THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND ANACONDA AND BUTTE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. MOUNTAIN
RIDGES COULD SEE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SCATTERED
SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. A BRIEF LULL
IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER AND
BREEZY, AND COULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW IMPACTS FOR AVIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTER
06Z, EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. TOMORROW WILL SEE RAIN START TO FALL IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LOLO PASS AND LOST TRAIL PASS IN THE EASTERN LEMHI
     COUNTY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 200920
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
320 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...Near Record Heat Today Followed by Cool and Rainy Conditions
on Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...The next trough, that will pass through on Tuesday,
is currently moving onto the west coast. Southwesterly flow will
develop over Idaho and western Montana today, as the trough
approaches, and high cloud cover will pass through this
afternoon. High temperatures today are going to be warmer than
Sunday with near record values (in the low 70s) for many
locations.

Precipitation with the upcoming weather system is anticipated to
begin to fall early Tuesday morning. Moisture with the upcoming
trough and cold front will be ample for pretty much everyone to
have rain by Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels will also lower
through the day and elevations above 6500 feet may have snow
accumulations including Lost Trail Pass.

High pressure will briefly pass over on Wednesday. The rain from
Tuesday along with clearing skies on Wednesday morning will bring
chances for fog.

A moist southwesterly flow is forecast to develop late Wednesday
that will begin to spread rain through north central Idaho and
northwest Montana. Southerly winds are also possible on Thursday
under this southwesterly flow. The cooler and more moist flow is
possible to continue into this coming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Fog has again developed through many of the valleys of
north central Idaho and western Montana so expect patchy fog
through mid-morning. Southwesterly flow is beginning to move over
the region as the next trough moves on to the west coast, and
high cloud cover will increase this afternoon and then lower
tonight as the associated cold front approaches. Low ceilings due
to low clouds and rain are likely Tuesday morning once the trough
and shortwave passes. Widespread cloudy and rainy conditions can
be expected for much of Tuesday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 200920
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
320 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...Near Record Heat Today Followed by Cool and Rainy Conditions
on Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...The next trough, that will pass through on Tuesday,
is currently moving onto the west coast. Southwesterly flow will
develop over Idaho and western Montana today, as the trough
approaches, and high cloud cover will pass through this
afternoon. High temperatures today are going to be warmer than
Sunday with near record values (in the low 70s) for many
locations.

Precipitation with the upcoming weather system is anticipated to
begin to fall early Tuesday morning. Moisture with the upcoming
trough and cold front will be ample for pretty much everyone to
have rain by Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels will also lower
through the day and elevations above 6500 feet may have snow
accumulations including Lost Trail Pass.

High pressure will briefly pass over on Wednesday. The rain from
Tuesday along with clearing skies on Wednesday morning will bring
chances for fog.

A moist southwesterly flow is forecast to develop late Wednesday
that will begin to spread rain through north central Idaho and
northwest Montana. Southerly winds are also possible on Thursday
under this southwesterly flow. The cooler and more moist flow is
possible to continue into this coming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Fog has again developed through many of the valleys of
north central Idaho and western Montana so expect patchy fog
through mid-morning. Southwesterly flow is beginning to move over
the region as the next trough moves on to the west coast, and
high cloud cover will increase this afternoon and then lower
tonight as the associated cold front approaches. Low ceilings due
to low clouds and rain are likely Tuesday morning once the trough
and shortwave passes. Widespread cloudy and rainy conditions can
be expected for much of Tuesday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 192105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...Another night of mostly clear conditions will lead
to ample valley cooling and help further strengthen valley
inversions that are unlikely to completely mix this afternoon.
This will likely prevent high temperatures in the valleys on
Monday from reaching their full potential, which would likely be
near record breaking for places like Missoula (record high is 72).
However temperatures area wide will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

Models are still on track to bring a cold front through the
Northern Rockies Region Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Initially the front appears to be somewhat void of moisture. But
an advancing upper level wave is forecast to dig inland and
eventually track northeast out of Nevada into Idaho and Montana
over the cold frontal boundary. The addition of upper level
instability and deep moisture along the near surface cold front
will initiate a band of widespread precipitation apparently
focused along the Clearwater & Bitterroot Mountains. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool with the snow level remaining near 7000
feet through much of the day. Although some impressive amounts of
precipitation are expected, especially over the higher terrain,
the larger impact is likely to be from post frontal snow showers
over Lost Trail Pass and other mountain locations above 6500 feet.
Much like the cold front last Thursday, travelers over Lost Trail
Pass should be prepared for brief, periods of reduced visibility
from snow showers along with icy, snow covered roadways.

Weak high pressure will begin to build on Wednesday and areas
which receive precipitation on Tuesday will likely experience
some fog. Long range models are beginning to show a possible
pattern shift to seasonably cool and a return to perhaps wetter
weather by the end of this week. Have trended the forecast this
direction, though confidence is generally moderate in the timing
of the trend. But there is some global evidence to support a
western USA pattern change before the month is over, so stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will remain in place through tonight
keeping light winds and variable cloudiness over all airfields. An
approaching storm system will bring increasing clouds late Monday
with a chance for precipitation at KSMN and KMSO by Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 192105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...Another night of mostly clear conditions will lead
to ample valley cooling and help further strengthen valley
inversions that are unlikely to completely mix this afternoon.
This will likely prevent high temperatures in the valleys on
Monday from reaching their full potential, which would likely be
near record breaking for places like Missoula (record high is 72).
However temperatures area wide will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

Models are still on track to bring a cold front through the
Northern Rockies Region Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Initially the front appears to be somewhat void of moisture. But
an advancing upper level wave is forecast to dig inland and
eventually track northeast out of Nevada into Idaho and Montana
over the cold frontal boundary. The addition of upper level
instability and deep moisture along the near surface cold front
will initiate a band of widespread precipitation apparently
focused along the Clearwater & Bitterroot Mountains. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool with the snow level remaining near 7000
feet through much of the day. Although some impressive amounts of
precipitation are expected, especially over the higher terrain,
the larger impact is likely to be from post frontal snow showers
over Lost Trail Pass and other mountain locations above 6500 feet.
Much like the cold front last Thursday, travelers over Lost Trail
Pass should be prepared for brief, periods of reduced visibility
from snow showers along with icy, snow covered roadways.

Weak high pressure will begin to build on Wednesday and areas
which receive precipitation on Tuesday will likely experience
some fog. Long range models are beginning to show a possible
pattern shift to seasonably cool and a return to perhaps wetter
weather by the end of this week. Have trended the forecast this
direction, though confidence is generally moderate in the timing
of the trend. But there is some global evidence to support a
western USA pattern change before the month is over, so stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will remain in place through tonight
keeping light winds and variable cloudiness over all airfields. An
approaching storm system will bring increasing clouds late Monday
with a chance for precipitation at KSMN and KMSO by Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 190938
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...Mild Monday followed by Wet & Cooler Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...Fog has formed this morning in many of the valleys
of north central Idaho and western Montana which will linger
through mid morning. High pressure over the region that is
responsible for this fog will lead to a very pleasant fall
afternoon with above average temperatures.

Southwesterly flow will develop ahead of the next weather system
on Monday so cloud cover is going to increase with continued above
normal temperatures.

There is very good agreement with the upcoming weather system to
arrive early Tuesday morning bringing high chances for rain.
Forecast tools show 2-3 times normal amount of moisture to move in
from the south while a slow moving cold front approaches from the
west. The amount of available moisture coupled with multiple
modes of lift should culminate in periods of moderate to even
heavy rain on Tuesday morning. Expect temperatures to drop to
below normal values on Tuesday due to cloud cover, rain, and the
cold front passage. Snow is also possible above 6000 feet after
the cold front passes that may cause light accumulations on high
passes such as Lost Trail.

The trough will pass off to the east on Tuesday night with brief
high pressure for Wednesday.

Moist southwesterly flow is forecast for Thursday and Friday so
rain chances are high for the Clearwater Mountains and through
northwest Montana. High pressure may return for next weekend so
above average temperatures and little chance for precipitation
explains the extended forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...Moist low levels and clear skies overnight has
prompted fog development through many of the valleys of north
central Idaho and western Montana. KGPI has been reporting dense
fog that will likely last into this morning. Other than fog, high
pressure is forecast to keep light winds and very nice conditions
for the next 24 hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 190938
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...Mild Monday followed by Wet & Cooler Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...Fog has formed this morning in many of the valleys
of north central Idaho and western Montana which will linger
through mid morning. High pressure over the region that is
responsible for this fog will lead to a very pleasant fall
afternoon with above average temperatures.

Southwesterly flow will develop ahead of the next weather system
on Monday so cloud cover is going to increase with continued above
normal temperatures.

There is very good agreement with the upcoming weather system to
arrive early Tuesday morning bringing high chances for rain.
Forecast tools show 2-3 times normal amount of moisture to move in
from the south while a slow moving cold front approaches from the
west. The amount of available moisture coupled with multiple
modes of lift should culminate in periods of moderate to even
heavy rain on Tuesday morning. Expect temperatures to drop to
below normal values on Tuesday due to cloud cover, rain, and the
cold front passage. Snow is also possible above 6000 feet after
the cold front passes that may cause light accumulations on high
passes such as Lost Trail.

The trough will pass off to the east on Tuesday night with brief
high pressure for Wednesday.

Moist southwesterly flow is forecast for Thursday and Friday so
rain chances are high for the Clearwater Mountains and through
northwest Montana. High pressure may return for next weekend so
above average temperatures and little chance for precipitation
explains the extended forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...Moist low levels and clear skies overnight has
prompted fog development through many of the valleys of north
central Idaho and western Montana. KGPI has been reporting dense
fog that will likely last into this morning. Other than fog, high
pressure is forecast to keep light winds and very nice conditions
for the next 24 hours.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






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