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000
FXUS65 KMSO 281013
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
413 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...Strong cold front Saturday, Pattern change this weekend & next
week...

.DISCUSSION...Expect another day or two of smoky skies in the
Northern Rockies. Wildfires remain active, bringing very poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys of central Idaho will continue
seeing the worst of the smoke, but some locations in western MT
remain unhealthy to very unhealthy.

A late-season monsoonal moisture push will brush the region of
southwestern Montana and Lemhi county of Idaho once again this
afternoon and evening. Storms will be isolated in nature, but
those that do get impacted, can expect gusty winds and occasional
lightning.

Tomorrow will be the big story, as tomorrow will be the start of
our pattern change in the Northern Rockies. Precipitation will be
limited with the shortwave trough as it moves through the region,
with northwest Montana having the best chances of receiving any
measurable rainfall. The main story with this system, will be the
wind. Gusty southwest winds will first develop in the Camas
Prairie region of Idaho late Saturday morning and early afternoon.
Then will spread north through the rest of central Idaho and
western Montana soon after. The strongest winds will be ahead and
along the cold front as it makes its way through. Winds gusts of
40+ mph can is possible in the Camas Prairie in Idaho, and along
the ID/MT border. Elsewhere 30-35 mph, with isolated areas seeing
stronger gusts will be common. Flathead Lake could be one of those
isolated areas that could see 40 mph or greater wind gusts, so if
you have plans on area Lakes tomorrow, stay tuned to the forecast.

A distinct change in the pattern will be evident Sunday onward,
with breezy and cool conditions across the Northern Rockies.
Northwest Montana will have the best chance of daily showers and
thunderstorms, particularly Sunday and the middle of next week.
The change in weather will also allow wildfire smoke to ventilate
and fire activity to slow a bit. That said, residual smoke is
unlikely to be completely eliminated by this pattern change
episode. There is some skepticism about the midweek wet weather
across the region, mainly because of recent bold stormy model
solutions that had quickly dried over time. On the other hand,
model confidence is high that cooler temperatures will materialize
and remain the norm beyond next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening Bitterroot...Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East
     Beaverhead...East Lolo...Flathead/Glacier Park...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270942
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
342 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Cold front Saturday, pattern change for weekend & next week...

.DISCUSSION...

Several more smoky days are in store for much of the Northern
Rockies as fires remain active in the region, bringing poor air
quality to many locations. Valleys will continue to see the worst
conditions, especially valleys in central Idaho.

Meanwhile, some late-season monsoonal moisture brushing the
region will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly from Lemhi County ID through southwest Montana.
While these storms should be a bit wetter than recent days, enough
low-level dryness lingers to bring a continued threat of gusty
winds with any storms. Despite monsoonal moisture moving out of
the region, another round of afternoon storms will be possible
again Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be the start of a pattern change away from the
stagnant high pressure for the Northern Rockies. A shortwave
trough will swing through the region in the late afternoon and
evening Saturday, though precipitation looks to be limited for most
locations. Northwest Montana will see the highest probability of
receiving measurable rainfall. The more widespread potential
impact will be the wind. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front
could potentially help clear out some of the smoke in the region.
However, due to the increased winds, fire activity could increase.

Another front is expected to move in late Sunday, again with increased
winds with little precipitation. Model consensus indicates that
the Northern Rockies will remain under a moist southwest to west
flow through next week. This will keep most at or just below
normal for temperatures, and the potential for above normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to reduce visibility and obscure
terrain throughout the area, especially for the valleys of
central Idaho. Afternoon breezes could help thin the smoke out,
but only marginal visibility improvements can be expected.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will again be a threat for KBTM
and KSMN this afternoon and evening.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 262100
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
300 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Today will be another warm, smoky day across most
of western Montana and north central Idaho with a ridge of high
pressure firmly in place. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees
above normal, but valleys with thick smoke, such as the Selway,
Lochsa, and Salmon river drainages, will be cooler due to
decreased sunlight through the smoke.

Overnight into Thursday, monsoonal moisture will swing through
portions of southwest Montana and north central Idaho. With the
increased moisture, chances for thunderstorms are again in the
forecast. These showers will be mostly dry initially, making gusty
winds and lightning the primary threats. Moisture continues to
increase on Thursday, and by Thursday afternoon, storms over Lehmi
county and southwest Montana may additionally bring local light
precipitation. These could extend as far north and west as the
Sapphire range, but recent model trends have drifted further
southeast with storms, so confidence in thunderstorms for other
locations is low.

Friday will bring near normal temperatures as the ridge axis begins
to drift to the east. By Saturday afternoon winds are expected to
increase as a shortwave trough moving through the upper level flow
provides some enhanced mixing. Precipitation looks limited at this
time, but far northwest Montana stands the best chance of a
wetting rain. Overall, these changes may help temporarily thin
smoke in many valleys, although valleys adjacent to large fires
will likely not improve significantly.

For Sunday through early next week, there are quite a few
differences regarding timing of individual weather systems between
models. HOWEVER, models are consistent either showing a cooler and
somewhat more moist westerly flow or a more persistent trough of
low pressure over the Northwest U.S. and northern Rockies. As
such, we have increased the probability of precipitation,
especially across northwest Montana. Temperatures should cool to
around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. However, exactly how
cool/warm/smoky each day will be is still in question.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to limit visibilities in valleys
this afternoon. Air above the terrain will also become more smoky
as valley smoke is mixed aloft, which may obscure the terrain.
Valley winds will be very light this afternoon with high pressure
dominating. Some thunderstorms are possible in mountains around
KSMN and KBTM in the late evening and overnight, but these are not
expected to impact terminals. Breezy south winds are also possible
overnight for KBTM and KSMN as the pressure gradient tightens.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 260924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
324 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Smoke throughout the region is likely to remain at
least through Friday. This smoke not only creates poor air quality
but also makes for difficult high temperature forecasts. In
general the smoke has been keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
below their potential, though still warm for this time of year
due to the strong ridge of high pressure. Latest satellite trends
show monsoon moisture moving through the desert southwest which
will begin to affect the region today. There is a lot of question
on how far north the moisture and resultant showers will be, but
best confidence is for showers and thunderstorms through Lemhi
County, ID and southwest Montana this afternoon. Storms this
afternoon and evening do not look to be very beneficial with rain
potential to be low but lightning strikes are possible.
Disturbances will pass on Thursday and Friday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will also trend
cooler by the end of the week.

This weekend could potentially be the start of a pattern change,
that could be a welcome change, in terms of smoke dispersion and
cooler temperatures. Precipitation forecast is still a little
tricky, due to timing differences in models and the potential of
a lot of it getting pushed north into Canada before arriving to
western Montana and central Idaho. One aspect of this change that
seems most certain, is the increase in winds out of the southwest.
Winds will begin to really increase Saturday afternoon and evening
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the first front. After
this weekend long range models continue to indicate a
southwesterly flow hanging around will a series of disturbances
moving through during the week next week. Stay tuned to the
forecast as the weekend nears.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to keep lowered visibility throughout
western Montana and central Idaho valleys today. The smoke will
also obscure the terrain. Increasing winds aloft, could help thin
out the smoke in the late afternoon. High based thunderstorms are
possible in Lemhi County, ID and into southwest Montana as
monsoon moisture approaches the region. Any storms that develop
will likely only produce gusty winds and lightning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 260924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
324 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Smoke throughout the region is likely to remain at
least through Friday. This smoke not only creates poor air quality
but also makes for difficult high temperature forecasts. In
general the smoke has been keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
below their potential, though still warm for this time of year
due to the strong ridge of high pressure. Latest satellite trends
show monsoon moisture moving through the desert southwest which
will begin to affect the region today. There is a lot of question
on how far north the moisture and resultant showers will be, but
best confidence is for showers and thunderstorms through Lemhi
County, ID and southwest Montana this afternoon. Storms this
afternoon and evening do not look to be very beneficial with rain
potential to be low but lightning strikes are possible.
Disturbances will pass on Thursday and Friday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will also trend
cooler by the end of the week.

This weekend could potentially be the start of a pattern change,
that could be a welcome change, in terms of smoke dispersion and
cooler temperatures. Precipitation forecast is still a little
tricky, due to timing differences in models and the potential of
a lot of it getting pushed north into Canada before arriving to
western Montana and central Idaho. One aspect of this change that
seems most certain, is the increase in winds out of the southwest.
Winds will begin to really increase Saturday afternoon and evening
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the first front. After
this weekend long range models continue to indicate a
southwesterly flow hanging around will a series of disturbances
moving through during the week next week. Stay tuned to the
forecast as the weekend nears.


&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to keep lowered visibility throughout
western Montana and central Idaho valleys today. The smoke will
also obscure the terrain. Increasing winds aloft, could help thin
out the smoke in the late afternoon. High based thunderstorms are
possible in Lemhi County, ID and into southwest Montana as
monsoon moisture approaches the region. Any storms that develop
will likely only produce gusty winds and lightning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 252058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
258 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...With high pressure firmly in place, smoke continues
to cause reduced visibilities across western Montana and north
central Idaho valleys this afternoon. Continued southwest flow
aloft has caused the upper atmosphere to clear somewhat, as fires
in Washington are no longer contributing to our smoke mix. Mixing
winds are weak this afternoon, but with clearer air aloft, some
marginal improvement in visibility is possible this evening.
Nevertheless, many locations will remain impacted by sub 10-mile
visibility for the next couple days. Temperatures remain about 5
degrees above average despite the smoke.

On Wednesday and Thursday, some atmospheric moisture will rotate
northward around the ridge centered over eastern MT and Wyoming.
This will allow for increased instability and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. North central
Idaho, Lemhi county, and southwest Montana look like the best
areas for these storms. Hail and heavy rain will not be present
with these storms, but with the antecedent dry airmass, gusty
winds and lightning will be the primary threats initially.
Thursdays storms look like they will have a better chance for some
precipitation to reach the surface, but heavy rains are still not
expected. Temperatures will remain slightly above average.

Friday and Saturday could be the start to a potential change in
conditions across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies,
which may continue into early next week. Extended forecast models
are hinting at a shift to slightly cooler and wetter conditions
area-wide, beginning as early as this weekend. While this pattern
shift is still somewhat up in the air, our confidence continues
to increase. Precipitation amounts and exact timing will be the
trickiest parts to forecast given the differences between model
solutions. Knowing that, we will continue to watch for any type of
relief that could help with ongoing wildfires and smoke dispersion
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to cause lower single digit
visibilities across area airports. With light winds, even lighter
than Monday, all of western Montana and valleys located in Idaho
county, in particular, look to remain heavily smoke-filled. Some
clearer air aloft may thin smoke and improve visibility in the
late afternoon, but smoke will continue to be generated upstream
by fires in Idaho.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 252058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
258 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...With high pressure firmly in place, smoke continues
to cause reduced visibilities across western Montana and north
central Idaho valleys this afternoon. Continued southwest flow
aloft has caused the upper atmosphere to clear somewhat, as fires
in Washington are no longer contributing to our smoke mix. Mixing
winds are weak this afternoon, but with clearer air aloft, some
marginal improvement in visibility is possible this evening.
Nevertheless, many locations will remain impacted by sub 10-mile
visibility for the next couple days. Temperatures remain about 5
degrees above average despite the smoke.

On Wednesday and Thursday, some atmospheric moisture will rotate
northward around the ridge centered over eastern MT and Wyoming.
This will allow for increased instability and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. North central
Idaho, Lemhi county, and southwest Montana look like the best
areas for these storms. Hail and heavy rain will not be present
with these storms, but with the antecedent dry airmass, gusty
winds and lightning will be the primary threats initially.
Thursdays storms look like they will have a better chance for some
precipitation to reach the surface, but heavy rains are still not
expected. Temperatures will remain slightly above average.

Friday and Saturday could be the start to a potential change in
conditions across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies,
which may continue into early next week. Extended forecast models
are hinting at a shift to slightly cooler and wetter conditions
area-wide, beginning as early as this weekend. While this pattern
shift is still somewhat up in the air, our confidence continues
to increase. Precipitation amounts and exact timing will be the
trickiest parts to forecast given the differences between model
solutions. Knowing that, we will continue to watch for any type of
relief that could help with ongoing wildfires and smoke dispersion
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke will continue to cause lower single digit
visibilities across area airports. With light winds, even lighter
than Monday, all of western Montana and valleys located in Idaho
county, in particular, look to remain heavily smoke-filled. Some
clearer air aloft may thin smoke and improve visibility in the
late afternoon, but smoke will continue to be generated upstream
by fires in Idaho.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





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