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000
FXUS65 KMSO 072109
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
209 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate over western Montana and
central Idaho for much of this week. This will result in generally
stable atmospheric conditions, meaning that air quality will
deteriorate through the week due to stagnant air, trapping
particulates. Mornings will start quite chilly in the valleys due
to the dry airmass in place, particularly for valley locations
that still have ample snow on the ground. However, afternoon
temperatures will be quite mild, especially for higher valleys and
in the mountains. The biggest forecast challenge will be the
development of fog and low stratus. With an overall dry airmass,
widespread development does not look likely at this time. However,
as temperatures warm and melt some snow later this week, that
could add enough moisture to make fog formation more likely.
Locations that do see fog or stratus develop will likely see
cooler daytime temperatures than currently reflected in the
forecast.

A change in the weather pattern is not being indicated until
Friday night into Saturday, when a trough of low pressure is
expected to move through the region. Increased chances of snow and
valley rain/snow should be anticipated with temperatures
returning closer to seasonal normals. This weather system will
also likely help to improve air quality.

&&

.AVIATION...Passing mid to high clouds will be moving over the
Northern Rockies, with the potential for very light showers possible
over the Glacier National Park region. Breezy winds will be
possible over the Continental Divide through Monday. Current
LAMP/MOS guidance suggests low stratus or fog could be of concern
for the Flathead/Mission/Missoula Valleys and the Camas Prairie
region in central ID by early Monday morning, resulting in
mountain obscurations and periods of reduced visibility. However,
forecast confidence for reaching IFR/LIFR visibility remains low.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 072109
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
209 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate over western Montana and
central Idaho for much of this week. This will result in generally
stable atmospheric conditions, meaning that air quality will
deteriorate through the week due to stagnant air, trapping
particulates. Mornings will start quite chilly in the valleys due
to the dry airmass in place, particularly for valley locations
that still have ample snow on the ground. However, afternoon
temperatures will be quite mild, especially for higher valleys and
in the mountains. The biggest forecast challenge will be the
development of fog and low stratus. With an overall dry airmass,
widespread development does not look likely at this time. However,
as temperatures warm and melt some snow later this week, that
could add enough moisture to make fog formation more likely.
Locations that do see fog or stratus develop will likely see
cooler daytime temperatures than currently reflected in the
forecast.

A change in the weather pattern is not being indicated until
Friday night into Saturday, when a trough of low pressure is
expected to move through the region. Increased chances of snow and
valley rain/snow should be anticipated with temperatures
returning closer to seasonal normals. This weather system will
also likely help to improve air quality.

&&

.AVIATION...Passing mid to high clouds will be moving over the
Northern Rockies, with the potential for very light showers possible
over the Glacier National Park region. Breezy winds will be
possible over the Continental Divide through Monday. Current
LAMP/MOS guidance suggests low stratus or fog could be of concern
for the Flathead/Mission/Missoula Valleys and the Camas Prairie
region in central ID by early Monday morning, resulting in
mountain obscurations and periods of reduced visibility. However,
forecast confidence for reaching IFR/LIFR visibility remains low.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 071021
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
321 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has started to build over the region
this morning. This is allowing some clearing in many locations,
such as Kalispell, where temperatures have dropped into the low
teens. Some patchy fog may develop just before sunrise this
morning in some locations across northwest Montana and the Camas
Prairie of Idaho. Along the Continental Divide near Glacier
National Park, a few very light mountain snow showers will be
possible for the first part of the day today.

Little change was noted for the forecast for this coming week.
High pressure is still expected to build over the region and
remain for most of the week. Cool overnight temperatures will
become common through valley locations while the high terrain will
remain mild. Many valley locations like Missoula, Salmon, Seeley
Lake, and Kalispell have the highest chance to remain in valley
inversions both during the day and night this week. Air quality
issues will also become more likely. A few showers will become
possible by the end of the week, but the main change in the
weather pattern is not showing up until Saturday. Increased
chances for rain and snow are forecast for Saturday with a trough
and cold front possible.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure is building over the Northern Rockies
today, with just a few passing high clouds and mountain
obscurations near Glacier National Park is expected. Some minor
patchy fog will be possible across northwestern Montana and
central Idaho around the Camas Prairie region.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 062137
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...Lingering snow showers, with a few weak snow bands,
continue this afternoon behind the passage of this morning`s cold
front. Most of the shower activity is focused along the
Continental Divide, impacting passes such as Marias and MacDonald
with continued periods of light snow. Gusty winds in these areas,
as high as 45 mph, will continue to cause blowing and drifting
snow, which will lower visibility at times. Winter weather
advisories remain in place through this evening along the
Continental Divide for slick roads and low visibility. Otherwise,
snow showers may become a bit more widespread this evening as the
upper level jet stream moves through western Montana, but further
impacts are not expected at this time. A general drying trend is
expected after midnight.

On Sunday, a few showers will be possible over the higher terrain
of Northwest Montana, then a strong ridge of high pressure will
build into the Northern Rockies resulting in mostly dry
conditions through much of next week. Valley inversions will
develop and persist with the potential for low stratus and fog. A
few flurries and light drizzle are possible from the stratus but
most places will remain dry. Air quality will also decrease as
particulates become trapped in the stable valley air. Temperatures
will be dependent on where low clouds develop but generally
seasonably cold temperatures are expected for valleys under the
inversions, while higher elevation valleys and the adjacent
mountains experience above normal temperatures and frequent
sunshine.

By late next week, forecast models begin to breakdown the ridge as
weak weather systems pass through with a chance of light precipitation.
These weather systems may also help to break up the stagnate
conditions that are expected in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...Convective snow showers will continue over west-
central Montana and the Continental Divide before tapering off
later this evening after 07/0300Z. Gusty westerly winds will also
begin to taper off this evening, especially after sunset. However,
gusty ridge top winds will persist through tonight. Turbulence due
to mountain wave activity along the Continental Divide should be
expected into this evening. TAF terminals KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM
will remain in vicinity of showers, though any direct impact to
the airport sites from showers are expected to be short lived.
Impacts may include brief moderate to heavy snowfall, gusty winds,
and reductions in visibility. Terrain obscurations from the
vicinity of showers is likely. By early morning hours, KSMN, KGPI,
and KMSO could see reductions in visibility from fog/haze that
develops in the valleys.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 062137
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...Lingering snow showers, with a few weak snow bands,
continue this afternoon behind the passage of this morning`s cold
front. Most of the shower activity is focused along the
Continental Divide, impacting passes such as Marias and MacDonald
with continued periods of light snow. Gusty winds in these areas,
as high as 45 mph, will continue to cause blowing and drifting
snow, which will lower visibility at times. Winter weather
advisories remain in place through this evening along the
Continental Divide for slick roads and low visibility. Otherwise,
snow showers may become a bit more widespread this evening as the
upper level jet stream moves through western Montana, but further
impacts are not expected at this time. A general drying trend is
expected after midnight.

On Sunday, a few showers will be possible over the higher terrain
of Northwest Montana, then a strong ridge of high pressure will
build into the Northern Rockies resulting in mostly dry
conditions through much of next week. Valley inversions will
develop and persist with the potential for low stratus and fog. A
few flurries and light drizzle are possible from the stratus but
most places will remain dry. Air quality will also decrease as
particulates become trapped in the stable valley air. Temperatures
will be dependent on where low clouds develop but generally
seasonably cold temperatures are expected for valleys under the
inversions, while higher elevation valleys and the adjacent
mountains experience above normal temperatures and frequent
sunshine.

By late next week, forecast models begin to breakdown the ridge as
weak weather systems pass through with a chance of light precipitation.
These weather systems may also help to break up the stagnate
conditions that are expected in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...Convective snow showers will continue over west-
central Montana and the Continental Divide before tapering off
later this evening after 07/0300Z. Gusty westerly winds will also
begin to taper off this evening, especially after sunset. However,
gusty ridge top winds will persist through tonight. Turbulence due
to mountain wave activity along the Continental Divide should be
expected into this evening. TAF terminals KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM
will remain in vicinity of showers, though any direct impact to
the airport sites from showers are expected to be short lived.
Impacts may include brief moderate to heavy snowfall, gusty winds,
and reductions in visibility. Terrain obscurations from the
vicinity of showers is likely. By early morning hours, KSMN, KGPI,
and KMSO could see reductions in visibility from fog/haze that
develops in the valleys.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 062137
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...Lingering snow showers, with a few weak snow bands,
continue this afternoon behind the passage of this morning`s cold
front. Most of the shower activity is focused along the
Continental Divide, impacting passes such as Marias and MacDonald
with continued periods of light snow. Gusty winds in these areas,
as high as 45 mph, will continue to cause blowing and drifting
snow, which will lower visibility at times. Winter weather
advisories remain in place through this evening along the
Continental Divide for slick roads and low visibility. Otherwise,
snow showers may become a bit more widespread this evening as the
upper level jet stream moves through western Montana, but further
impacts are not expected at this time. A general drying trend is
expected after midnight.

On Sunday, a few showers will be possible over the higher terrain
of Northwest Montana, then a strong ridge of high pressure will
build into the Northern Rockies resulting in mostly dry
conditions through much of next week. Valley inversions will
develop and persist with the potential for low stratus and fog. A
few flurries and light drizzle are possible from the stratus but
most places will remain dry. Air quality will also decrease as
particulates become trapped in the stable valley air. Temperatures
will be dependent on where low clouds develop but generally
seasonably cold temperatures are expected for valleys under the
inversions, while higher elevation valleys and the adjacent
mountains experience above normal temperatures and frequent
sunshine.

By late next week, forecast models begin to breakdown the ridge as
weak weather systems pass through with a chance of light precipitation.
These weather systems may also help to break up the stagnate
conditions that are expected in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...Convective snow showers will continue over west-
central Montana and the Continental Divide before tapering off
later this evening after 07/0300Z. Gusty westerly winds will also
begin to taper off this evening, especially after sunset. However,
gusty ridge top winds will persist through tonight. Turbulence due
to mountain wave activity along the Continental Divide should be
expected into this evening. TAF terminals KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM
will remain in vicinity of showers, though any direct impact to
the airport sites from showers are expected to be short lived.
Impacts may include brief moderate to heavy snowfall, gusty winds,
and reductions in visibility. Terrain obscurations from the
vicinity of showers is likely. By early morning hours, KSMN, KGPI,
and KMSO could see reductions in visibility from fog/haze that
develops in the valleys.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 061608
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
908 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...Added a few winter weather advisories this morning to
address current impacts with the passing weather system and cold
front. Across northwest Montana, despite warm air temperatures,
subsurface temperatures below freezing have allowed for black ice
to form on the roadways, making for very slick travel. Across the
Butte/Blackfoot region, a persistent band of snow has developed,
which is currently bringing moderate to heavy snow to the Highway
12 corridor from Garrison Junction to MacDonald Pass. This band
will likely slowly shift southward, and could impact Georgetown
Lake, Anaconda, Butte and Homestake Pass later this morning. In
addition, this area is seeing winds gusting as high as 45 mph,
which combined with the snow could cause localized areas of low
visibility.

Later this morning into the afternoon, favorable conditions for
the development of snow bands are still expected. While snow
bands are often localized, they can cause bursts of very heavy
snow over short periods of time, causing changeable road
conditions across the region. Further winter weather advisories
may be necessary, particularly for the Missoula/Bitterroot
valleys, so stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...The cold front has largely passed through much of
western Montana and central Idaho this morning. Gusty west to
northwest winds continue this morning, especially across
southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide where gusts to
45 kts have been observed. These winds should gradually decrease
this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, snow levels will
begin to crash to valley floors, along with the potential for the
development of snow bands after 06/1800Z. These bands could
persist until 07/0600Z. Aviation terminals KMSO and KGPI will be
at risk of seeing these bands, which will greatly reduce
visibility and accumulate a few inches of snow in a short period
of time. Impacts from snow bands can be very localized, so even if
airfields are not being directly impacted, within the vicinity of
airports may still see these conditions. High resolution models
are showing the potential for these snow bands in the Missoula and
Bitterroot valleys but the exact locations are still uncertain.
Overall, terrain obscurations due to low ceilings and gusty winds
at ridge tops should be anticipated through much of the day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...Our next system has begun to impact portions of the
Northern Rockies overnight. A tight southwesterly pressure
gradient has developed early this morning producing gusty
southwest winds. Due to this, many valleys of western Montana and
central Idaho have been shadowed out with the onset of
precipitation. Also, the southwest winds have begun to warm many
valleys to above freezing, so what precipitation does fall will be
in the form of rain, or a mix of rain/snow. The mountains and
mountain passes along the ID/MT border have been getting moderate
snow the past few hours, which will continue off and on for the
rest of the day. Several inches of snow is still expected to fall,
especially for Lookout, Lolo, and Marias Passes. Due to this,
winter weather advisories remain in place.

After the cold front passes through western Montana later this
morning and early afternoon, snow levels will crash to many valley
floors. Atmospheric profiles continue to show the potential for
snow bands developing later this afternoon and persisting into the
late evening. Forecasting exactly where these bands develop is
challenging, however, high resolution models are beginning to show
a number of bands developing somewhere between the Mission and
Bitterroot Valleys and eastern Idaho county of Idaho. If one of
these bands develop and you travel into one, you will experience
drastically changing road conditions in a very short distance.
Very heavy snow will greatly reduce visibility, and accumulate on
roadways in a short period of time. Monitor our webpage
www.weather.gov/missoula for further updates.

High pressure is still on track to move into the region beginning
Sunday, but the main ridge will not reach Idaho and western
Montana until around Monday. Valley inversions are forecast to
become common, while under the stable high pressure pattern, which
is expected for much of the coming week. Air quality in the
valleys of north central Idaho and western Montana will likely
become degraded through this week as particulates buildup in the
stable valley air. The stable pattern may also lead to fog or low
cloud cover development. Locations that do develop fog or
persistent cloud cover will likely not be as cold as the current
forecast.

There are signs that the ridge will begin to break down near the
end of the week or during the upcoming weekend. Precipitation
chances are in the forecast to account for the potential for weak
shortwave passages especially during the weekend.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark
     Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier
     Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 061608
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
908 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...Added a few winter weather advisories this morning to
address current impacts with the passing weather system and cold
front. Across northwest Montana, despite warm air temperatures,
subsurface temperatures below freezing have allowed for black ice
to form on the roadways, making for very slick travel. Across the
Butte/Blackfoot region, a persistent band of snow has developed,
which is currently bringing moderate to heavy snow to the Highway
12 corridor from Garrison Junction to MacDonald Pass. This band
will likely slowly shift southward, and could impact Georgetown
Lake, Anaconda, Butte and Homestake Pass later this morning. In
addition, this area is seeing winds gusting as high as 45 mph,
which combined with the snow could cause localized areas of low
visibility.

Later this morning into the afternoon, favorable conditions for
the development of snow bands are still expected. While snow
bands are often localized, they can cause bursts of very heavy
snow over short periods of time, causing changeable road
conditions across the region. Further winter weather advisories
may be necessary, particularly for the Missoula/Bitterroot
valleys, so stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...The cold front has largely passed through much of
western Montana and central Idaho this morning. Gusty west to
northwest winds continue this morning, especially across
southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide where gusts to
45 kts have been observed. These winds should gradually decrease
this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, snow levels will
begin to crash to valley floors, along with the potential for the
development of snow bands after 06/1800Z. These bands could
persist until 07/0600Z. Aviation terminals KMSO and KGPI will be
at risk of seeing these bands, which will greatly reduce
visibility and accumulate a few inches of snow in a short period
of time. Impacts from snow bands can be very localized, so even if
airfields are not being directly impacted, within the vicinity of
airports may still see these conditions. High resolution models
are showing the potential for these snow bands in the Missoula and
Bitterroot valleys but the exact locations are still uncertain.
Overall, terrain obscurations due to low ceilings and gusty winds
at ridge tops should be anticipated through much of the day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...Our next system has begun to impact portions of the
Northern Rockies overnight. A tight southwesterly pressure
gradient has developed early this morning producing gusty
southwest winds. Due to this, many valleys of western Montana and
central Idaho have been shadowed out with the onset of
precipitation. Also, the southwest winds have begun to warm many
valleys to above freezing, so what precipitation does fall will be
in the form of rain, or a mix of rain/snow. The mountains and
mountain passes along the ID/MT border have been getting moderate
snow the past few hours, which will continue off and on for the
rest of the day. Several inches of snow is still expected to fall,
especially for Lookout, Lolo, and Marias Passes. Due to this,
winter weather advisories remain in place.

After the cold front passes through western Montana later this
morning and early afternoon, snow levels will crash to many valley
floors. Atmospheric profiles continue to show the potential for
snow bands developing later this afternoon and persisting into the
late evening. Forecasting exactly where these bands develop is
challenging, however, high resolution models are beginning to show
a number of bands developing somewhere between the Mission and
Bitterroot Valleys and eastern Idaho county of Idaho. If one of
these bands develop and you travel into one, you will experience
drastically changing road conditions in a very short distance.
Very heavy snow will greatly reduce visibility, and accumulate on
roadways in a short period of time. Monitor our webpage
www.weather.gov/missoula for further updates.

High pressure is still on track to move into the region beginning
Sunday, but the main ridge will not reach Idaho and western
Montana until around Monday. Valley inversions are forecast to
become common, while under the stable high pressure pattern, which
is expected for much of the coming week. Air quality in the
valleys of north central Idaho and western Montana will likely
become degraded through this week as particulates buildup in the
stable valley air. The stable pattern may also lead to fog or low
cloud cover development. Locations that do develop fog or
persistent cloud cover will likely not be as cold as the current
forecast.

There are signs that the ridge will begin to break down near the
end of the week or during the upcoming weekend. Precipitation
chances are in the forecast to account for the potential for weak
shortwave passages especially during the weekend.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark
     Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier
     Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 061608
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
908 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...Added a few winter weather advisories this morning to
address current impacts with the passing weather system and cold
front. Across northwest Montana, despite warm air temperatures,
subsurface temperatures below freezing have allowed for black ice
to form on the roadways, making for very slick travel. Across the
Butte/Blackfoot region, a persistent band of snow has developed,
which is currently bringing moderate to heavy snow to the Highway
12 corridor from Garrison Junction to MacDonald Pass. This band
will likely slowly shift southward, and could impact Georgetown
Lake, Anaconda, Butte and Homestake Pass later this morning. In
addition, this area is seeing winds gusting as high as 45 mph,
which combined with the snow could cause localized areas of low
visibility.

Later this morning into the afternoon, favorable conditions for
the development of snow bands are still expected. While snow
bands are often localized, they can cause bursts of very heavy
snow over short periods of time, causing changeable road
conditions across the region. Further winter weather advisories
may be necessary, particularly for the Missoula/Bitterroot
valleys, so stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...The cold front has largely passed through much of
western Montana and central Idaho this morning. Gusty west to
northwest winds continue this morning, especially across
southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide where gusts to
45 kts have been observed. These winds should gradually decrease
this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, snow levels will
begin to crash to valley floors, along with the potential for the
development of snow bands after 06/1800Z. These bands could
persist until 07/0600Z. Aviation terminals KMSO and KGPI will be
at risk of seeing these bands, which will greatly reduce
visibility and accumulate a few inches of snow in a short period
of time. Impacts from snow bands can be very localized, so even if
airfields are not being directly impacted, within the vicinity of
airports may still see these conditions. High resolution models
are showing the potential for these snow bands in the Missoula and
Bitterroot valleys but the exact locations are still uncertain.
Overall, terrain obscurations due to low ceilings and gusty winds
at ridge tops should be anticipated through much of the day today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...Our next system has begun to impact portions of the
Northern Rockies overnight. A tight southwesterly pressure
gradient has developed early this morning producing gusty
southwest winds. Due to this, many valleys of western Montana and
central Idaho have been shadowed out with the onset of
precipitation. Also, the southwest winds have begun to warm many
valleys to above freezing, so what precipitation does fall will be
in the form of rain, or a mix of rain/snow. The mountains and
mountain passes along the ID/MT border have been getting moderate
snow the past few hours, which will continue off and on for the
rest of the day. Several inches of snow is still expected to fall,
especially for Lookout, Lolo, and Marias Passes. Due to this,
winter weather advisories remain in place.

After the cold front passes through western Montana later this
morning and early afternoon, snow levels will crash to many valley
floors. Atmospheric profiles continue to show the potential for
snow bands developing later this afternoon and persisting into the
late evening. Forecasting exactly where these bands develop is
challenging, however, high resolution models are beginning to show
a number of bands developing somewhere between the Mission and
Bitterroot Valleys and eastern Idaho county of Idaho. If one of
these bands develop and you travel into one, you will experience
drastically changing road conditions in a very short distance.
Very heavy snow will greatly reduce visibility, and accumulate on
roadways in a short period of time. Monitor our webpage
www.weather.gov/missoula for further updates.

High pressure is still on track to move into the region beginning
Sunday, but the main ridge will not reach Idaho and western
Montana until around Monday. Valley inversions are forecast to
become common, while under the stable high pressure pattern, which
is expected for much of the coming week. Air quality in the
valleys of north central Idaho and western Montana will likely
become degraded through this week as particulates buildup in the
stable valley air. The stable pattern may also lead to fog or low
cloud cover development. Locations that do develop fog or
persistent cloud cover will likely not be as cold as the current
forecast.

There are signs that the ridge will begin to break down near the
end of the week or during the upcoming weekend. Precipitation
chances are in the forecast to account for the potential for weak
shortwave passages especially during the weekend.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark
     Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier
     Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 061056
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
356 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...Our next system has begun to impact portions of the
Northern Rockies overnight. A tight southwesterly pressure
gradient has developed early this morning producing gusty
southwest winds. Due to this, many valleys of western Montana and
central Idaho have been shadowed out with the onset of
precipitation. Also, the southwest winds have begun to warm many
valleys to above freezing, so what precipitation does fall will be
in the form of rain, or a mix of rain/snow. The mountains and
mountain passes along the ID/MT border have been getting moderate
snow the past few hours, which will continue off and on for the
rest of the day. Several inches of snow is still expected to fall,
especially for Lookout, Lolo, and Marias Passes. Due to this,
winter weather advisories remain in place.

After the cold front passes through western Montana later this
morning and early afternoon, snow levels will crash to many valley
floors. Atmospheric profiles continue to show the potential for
snow bands developing later this afternoon and persisting into the
late evening. Forecasting exactly where these bands develop is
challenging, however, high resolution models are beginning to show
a number of bands developing somewhere between the Mission and
Bitterroot Valleys and eastern Idaho county of Idaho. If one of
these bands develop and you travel into one, you will experience
drastically changing road conditions in a very short distance.
Very heavy snow will greatly reduce visibility, and accumulate on
roadways in a short period of time. Monitor our webpage
www.weather.gov/missoula for further updates.

High pressure is still on track to move into the region beginning
Sunday, but the main ridge will not reach Idaho and western
Montana until around Monday. Valley inversions are forecast to
become common, while under the stable high pressure pattern, which
is expected for much of the coming week. Air quality in the
valleys of north central Idaho and western Montana will likely
become degraded through this week as particulates buildup in the
stable valley air. The stable pattern may also lead to fog or low
cloud cover development. Locations that do develop fog or
persistent cloud cover will likely not be as cold as the current
forecast.

There are signs that the ridge will begin to break down near the
end of the week or during the upcoming weekend. Precipitation
chances are in the forecast to account for the potential for weak
shortwave passages especially during the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Our next weather system has begun pushing into the
Northern Rockies overnight. Moderate snow is falling in the higher
elevations along the MT/ID border, and will continue for much of
the day. Gusty southwest winds will primarily shadow out aviation
terminals in western MT and central ID, until the front passes.
Frontal passage is expected to be around 06/1600Z for KMSO and
KGPI. A brief period of rain/snow mix with gusty southwest winds
approaching 20-25kts will be possible with the front. Snow levels
will crash to valley floors behind the front, along with the
potential for the development of snow bands after 06/1800Z and
possibly persist until 07/0600Z. Aviation terminals KMSO and KGPI
will be at risk of seeing these bands, which will greatly reduce
visibility and accumulate a few inches of snow in a short period
of time. High resolution models are showing the potential for
these snow bands in the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys but the
exact locations are still uncertain.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark
     Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier
     Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 061056
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
356 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...Our next system has begun to impact portions of the
Northern Rockies overnight. A tight southwesterly pressure
gradient has developed early this morning producing gusty
southwest winds. Due to this, many valleys of western Montana and
central Idaho have been shadowed out with the onset of
precipitation. Also, the southwest winds have begun to warm many
valleys to above freezing, so what precipitation does fall will be
in the form of rain, or a mix of rain/snow. The mountains and
mountain passes along the ID/MT border have been getting moderate
snow the past few hours, which will continue off and on for the
rest of the day. Several inches of snow is still expected to fall,
especially for Lookout, Lolo, and Marias Passes. Due to this,
winter weather advisories remain in place.

After the cold front passes through western Montana later this
morning and early afternoon, snow levels will crash to many valley
floors. Atmospheric profiles continue to show the potential for
snow bands developing later this afternoon and persisting into the
late evening. Forecasting exactly where these bands develop is
challenging, however, high resolution models are beginning to show
a number of bands developing somewhere between the Mission and
Bitterroot Valleys and eastern Idaho county of Idaho. If one of
these bands develop and you travel into one, you will experience
drastically changing road conditions in a very short distance.
Very heavy snow will greatly reduce visibility, and accumulate on
roadways in a short period of time. Monitor our webpage
www.weather.gov/missoula for further updates.

High pressure is still on track to move into the region beginning
Sunday, but the main ridge will not reach Idaho and western
Montana until around Monday. Valley inversions are forecast to
become common, while under the stable high pressure pattern, which
is expected for much of the coming week. Air quality in the
valleys of north central Idaho and western Montana will likely
become degraded through this week as particulates buildup in the
stable valley air. The stable pattern may also lead to fog or low
cloud cover development. Locations that do develop fog or
persistent cloud cover will likely not be as cold as the current
forecast.

There are signs that the ridge will begin to break down near the
end of the week or during the upcoming weekend. Precipitation
chances are in the forecast to account for the potential for weak
shortwave passages especially during the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Our next weather system has begun pushing into the
Northern Rockies overnight. Moderate snow is falling in the higher
elevations along the MT/ID border, and will continue for much of
the day. Gusty southwest winds will primarily shadow out aviation
terminals in western MT and central ID, until the front passes.
Frontal passage is expected to be around 06/1600Z for KMSO and
KGPI. A brief period of rain/snow mix with gusty southwest winds
approaching 20-25kts will be possible with the front. Snow levels
will crash to valley floors behind the front, along with the
potential for the development of snow bands after 06/1800Z and
possibly persist until 07/0600Z. Aviation terminals KMSO and KGPI
will be at risk of seeing these bands, which will greatly reduce
visibility and accumulate a few inches of snow in a short period
of time. High resolution models are showing the potential for
these snow bands in the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys but the
exact locations are still uncertain.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark
     Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier
     Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 061056
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
356 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...Our next system has begun to impact portions of the
Northern Rockies overnight. A tight southwesterly pressure
gradient has developed early this morning producing gusty
southwest winds. Due to this, many valleys of western Montana and
central Idaho have been shadowed out with the onset of
precipitation. Also, the southwest winds have begun to warm many
valleys to above freezing, so what precipitation does fall will be
in the form of rain, or a mix of rain/snow. The mountains and
mountain passes along the ID/MT border have been getting moderate
snow the past few hours, which will continue off and on for the
rest of the day. Several inches of snow is still expected to fall,
especially for Lookout, Lolo, and Marias Passes. Due to this,
winter weather advisories remain in place.

After the cold front passes through western Montana later this
morning and early afternoon, snow levels will crash to many valley
floors. Atmospheric profiles continue to show the potential for
snow bands developing later this afternoon and persisting into the
late evening. Forecasting exactly where these bands develop is
challenging, however, high resolution models are beginning to show
a number of bands developing somewhere between the Mission and
Bitterroot Valleys and eastern Idaho county of Idaho. If one of
these bands develop and you travel into one, you will experience
drastically changing road conditions in a very short distance.
Very heavy snow will greatly reduce visibility, and accumulate on
roadways in a short period of time. Monitor our webpage
www.weather.gov/missoula for further updates.

High pressure is still on track to move into the region beginning
Sunday, but the main ridge will not reach Idaho and western
Montana until around Monday. Valley inversions are forecast to
become common, while under the stable high pressure pattern, which
is expected for much of the coming week. Air quality in the
valleys of north central Idaho and western Montana will likely
become degraded through this week as particulates buildup in the
stable valley air. The stable pattern may also lead to fog or low
cloud cover development. Locations that do develop fog or
persistent cloud cover will likely not be as cold as the current
forecast.

There are signs that the ridge will begin to break down near the
end of the week or during the upcoming weekend. Precipitation
chances are in the forecast to account for the potential for weak
shortwave passages especially during the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...Our next weather system has begun pushing into the
Northern Rockies overnight. Moderate snow is falling in the higher
elevations along the MT/ID border, and will continue for much of
the day. Gusty southwest winds will primarily shadow out aviation
terminals in western MT and central ID, until the front passes.
Frontal passage is expected to be around 06/1600Z for KMSO and
KGPI. A brief period of rain/snow mix with gusty southwest winds
approaching 20-25kts will be possible with the front. Snow levels
will crash to valley floors behind the front, along with the
potential for the development of snow bands after 06/1800Z and
possibly persist until 07/0600Z. Aviation terminals KMSO and KGPI
will be at risk of seeing these bands, which will greatly reduce
visibility and accumulate a few inches of snow in a short period
of time. High resolution models are showing the potential for
these snow bands in the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys but the
exact locations are still uncertain.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Lower Clark
     Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier
     Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 052136
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
236 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...Another weather disturbance will be making its way
across the Northern Rockies later tonight through Saturday. As the
system approaches the region, the pressure gradient will tighten
creating gusty southerly winds on the Camas Prairie in Idaho.
Grangeville could have wind gusts up to 45 mph later tonight into
Saturday morning. Also this southerly wind will keep the
atmosphere well mixed during the overnight hours, so temperatures
for tonight should be relatively mild. Widespread precipitation is
expected as the cold front moves through the region. During the
onset of precipitation, snow levels will be fairly high causing a
wintry mix in many valley locations. After the passage of the
front by mid Saturday morning, snow levels drop to most valley
bottoms. Mountain passes, especially along the Montana/Idaho
border, will receive a significant amount of snow tonight through
Saturday evening. Winter weather advisories have been issued for
the travel impacts. The atmosphere becomes unstable enough for the
development of hefty snow showers. The atmosphere profile
indicates that snow bands will be possible by Saturday afternoon
and lasting into the evening hours. Snow bands will be able to
produce very heavy snow in a very short distance which will be a
major impact on area roadways. At this time, it is difficult to
pin point where and when snow bands will develop on Saturday.

A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the West Coast
extending into the Northern Rockies resulting in dry conditions
Sunday through much of next week. As is typical with these strong
winter ridge patterns, valley inversions will develop with the
potential for low stratus, fog, and decreasing air quality.
Seasonably cold temperatures are expected for valleys under the
inversions, while higher elevation valleys and the adjacent
mountains experience well above normal temperatures and frequent
sunshine.

By late next week, forecast models bring a cold front through and
begin to breakdown the ridge but confidence is low on the timing
and strength of the cold front. Most likely this will not be a
significant event with much of the energy absorbed by the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...A transitory ridge of high pressure has create fair
flying conditions this afternoon and evening. The conditions will
steadily deteriorate tonight as another system will make its way
across the Northern Rockies. Ceilings will be steadily dropping
tonight and widespread snow showers are expected by the morning.
These showers will be capable of producing heavy snow, so
visibilities could be reduced to less than a mile at times. Snow
bands are a possibility by Saturday afternoon, creating another
issued when the band is within the vicinity of the terminal.


&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Confidence remains high that a strong ridge of high
pressure will build across the region late Sunday and last through
late next week, allowing valley inversions to develop and persist.
Stable conditions will lead to decreasing air quality especially
for the lower valleys of western Montana and Lemhi County in
Idaho. The next potential break up of the stagnate conditions will
be Friday or Saturday of next week as the ridge of high pressure
gradually breaks down.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
     Saturday ABOVE 4000 FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains...Lower Clark Fork Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake
     Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
     Saturday ABOVE 4000 FEET for the Northern Clearwater
     Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 051120
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
420 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will move through the building
ridge this morning and afternoon producing mainly light mountain
snow. Accumulations will be light, though mountain passes along
the MT/ID and in the Glacier National Park region, could see a
light coating on the roads. Some valleys of northwestern Montana
could see a few flurries, but not expected to accumulate. The
snow showers will end for the most part by late afternoon, except
for the mountains of extreme northwest Montana.

The more impactful system will be moving into the region late
tonight, producing widespread precipitation. Snow levels will
start off above most valleys (4500 feet), with snow mainly
impacting mountain passes. Once the cold front pushes through
Saturday afternoon, snow levels will lower to valley floors in
western Montana, and down to the valleys of central Idaho, that
are above 4000 feet. The mountains and mountain passes will see
several inches of snow, somewhere between 6-10 inches. The
valleys of western Montana will see lighter accumulations, on the
order of 1-2 inches. However, atmospheric profiles still indicate
the potential for snow bands developing late afternoon into the
evening hours. Areas susceptible to these bands will be along the
I-90 corridor form Alberton to Drummond, the Seeley/Swan Region,
and locations on the east side of Flathead Lake. If under one of
these bands, you could see a few more inches of snow, with road
conditions greatly deteriorating in a very short distance.

Gusty southwest winds will also accompany this weather disturbance
in the Grangeville area tonight and Saturday morning. Winds could
gust as high as 45 mph for a brief period. The mountains of
western Montana will see these winds by the afternoon, with gusts
approaching 50 mph at the higher elevations.

Sunday a strong ridge starts building over the region. Cold air
pools and the resulting valley inversions will be cause for air
stagnation concerns. It will also cause warm temperatures in the
mountains early next week.

Late next week models are trying to break down the ridge with
another cold front, though confidence is low on the timing and
strength. Model agreement is poor with this front, but the overall
global pattern suggests it will most likely not be a major event
as most energy will likely be pushed east quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak wave of energy will help produce light mountain
snow showers across western Montana and central Idaho this morning
and afternoon. Vicinity showers will be possible in the mountains
around KMSO around 05/1600Z, though not expected to impact the
terminal. KMSO will briefly see slight reductions in visibility
due to a thin layer of fog. KGPI could actually see light
flurries this morning after 05/1600Z, otherwise mountain
obscurations can be expected throughout western Montana and
central Idaho.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 051120
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
420 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will move through the building
ridge this morning and afternoon producing mainly light mountain
snow. Accumulations will be light, though mountain passes along
the MT/ID and in the Glacier National Park region, could see a
light coating on the roads. Some valleys of northwestern Montana
could see a few flurries, but not expected to accumulate. The
snow showers will end for the most part by late afternoon, except
for the mountains of extreme northwest Montana.

The more impactful system will be moving into the region late
tonight, producing widespread precipitation. Snow levels will
start off above most valleys (4500 feet), with snow mainly
impacting mountain passes. Once the cold front pushes through
Saturday afternoon, snow levels will lower to valley floors in
western Montana, and down to the valleys of central Idaho, that
are above 4000 feet. The mountains and mountain passes will see
several inches of snow, somewhere between 6-10 inches. The
valleys of western Montana will see lighter accumulations, on the
order of 1-2 inches. However, atmospheric profiles still indicate
the potential for snow bands developing late afternoon into the
evening hours. Areas susceptible to these bands will be along the
I-90 corridor form Alberton to Drummond, the Seeley/Swan Region,
and locations on the east side of Flathead Lake. If under one of
these bands, you could see a few more inches of snow, with road
conditions greatly deteriorating in a very short distance.

Gusty southwest winds will also accompany this weather disturbance
in the Grangeville area tonight and Saturday morning. Winds could
gust as high as 45 mph for a brief period. The mountains of
western Montana will see these winds by the afternoon, with gusts
approaching 50 mph at the higher elevations.

Sunday a strong ridge starts building over the region. Cold air
pools and the resulting valley inversions will be cause for air
stagnation concerns. It will also cause warm temperatures in the
mountains early next week.

Late next week models are trying to break down the ridge with
another cold front, though confidence is low on the timing and
strength. Model agreement is poor with this front, but the overall
global pattern suggests it will most likely not be a major event
as most energy will likely be pushed east quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak wave of energy will help produce light mountain
snow showers across western Montana and central Idaho this morning
and afternoon. Vicinity showers will be possible in the mountains
around KMSO around 05/1600Z, though not expected to impact the
terminal. KMSO will briefly see slight reductions in visibility
due to a thin layer of fog. KGPI could actually see light
flurries this morning after 05/1600Z, otherwise mountain
obscurations can be expected throughout western Montana and
central Idaho.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 051120
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
420 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will move through the building
ridge this morning and afternoon producing mainly light mountain
snow. Accumulations will be light, though mountain passes along
the MT/ID and in the Glacier National Park region, could see a
light coating on the roads. Some valleys of northwestern Montana
could see a few flurries, but not expected to accumulate. The
snow showers will end for the most part by late afternoon, except
for the mountains of extreme northwest Montana.

The more impactful system will be moving into the region late
tonight, producing widespread precipitation. Snow levels will
start off above most valleys (4500 feet), with snow mainly
impacting mountain passes. Once the cold front pushes through
Saturday afternoon, snow levels will lower to valley floors in
western Montana, and down to the valleys of central Idaho, that
are above 4000 feet. The mountains and mountain passes will see
several inches of snow, somewhere between 6-10 inches. The
valleys of western Montana will see lighter accumulations, on the
order of 1-2 inches. However, atmospheric profiles still indicate
the potential for snow bands developing late afternoon into the
evening hours. Areas susceptible to these bands will be along the
I-90 corridor form Alberton to Drummond, the Seeley/Swan Region,
and locations on the east side of Flathead Lake. If under one of
these bands, you could see a few more inches of snow, with road
conditions greatly deteriorating in a very short distance.

Gusty southwest winds will also accompany this weather disturbance
in the Grangeville area tonight and Saturday morning. Winds could
gust as high as 45 mph for a brief period. The mountains of
western Montana will see these winds by the afternoon, with gusts
approaching 50 mph at the higher elevations.

Sunday a strong ridge starts building over the region. Cold air
pools and the resulting valley inversions will be cause for air
stagnation concerns. It will also cause warm temperatures in the
mountains early next week.

Late next week models are trying to break down the ridge with
another cold front, though confidence is low on the timing and
strength. Model agreement is poor with this front, but the overall
global pattern suggests it will most likely not be a major event
as most energy will likely be pushed east quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak wave of energy will help produce light mountain
snow showers across western Montana and central Idaho this morning
and afternoon. Vicinity showers will be possible in the mountains
around KMSO around 05/1600Z, though not expected to impact the
terminal. KMSO will briefly see slight reductions in visibility
due to a thin layer of fog. KGPI could actually see light
flurries this morning after 05/1600Z, otherwise mountain
obscurations can be expected throughout western Montana and
central Idaho.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 051039
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
339 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will move through the building
ridge this morning and afternoon producing mainly light mountain
snow. Accumulations will be light, though mountain passes along
the MT/ID and in the Glacier National Park region, could see a
light coating on the roads. Some valleys of northwestern Montana
could see a few flurries, but not expected to accumulate. The
snow showers will end for the most part by late afternoon, except
for the mountains of extreme northwest Montana.

The more impactful system will be moving into the region late
tonight, producing widespread precipitation. Snow levels will
start off above most valleys (4500 feet), with snow mainly
impacting mountain passes. Once the cold front pushes through
Saturday afternoon, snow levels will lower to valley floors in
western Montana, and down to the valleys of central Idaho, that
are above 4000 feet. The mountains and mountain passes will see
several inches of snow, somewhere between 6-10 inches. The
valleys of western Montana will see lighter accumulations, on the
order of 1-2 inches. However, atmospheric profiles still indicate
the potential for snow bands developing late afternoon into the
evening hours. Areas susceptible to these bands will be along the
I-90 corridor form Alberton to Drummond, the Seeley/Swan Region,
and locations on the east side of Flathead Lake. If under one of
these bands, you could see a few more inches of snow, with road
conditions greatly deteriorating in a very short distance.

Gusty southwest winds will also accompany this weather disturbance
in the Grangeville area tonight and Saturday morning. Winds could
gust as high as 45 mph for a brief period. The mountains of
western Montana will see these winds by the afternoon, with gusts
approaching 50 mph at the higher elevations.

Sunday a strong ridge starts building over the region. Cold air
pools and the resulting valley inversions will be cause for air
stagnation concerns. It will also cause warm temperatures in the
mountains early next week.

Late next week models are trying to break down the ridge with
another cold front, though confidence is low on the timing and
strength. Model agreement is poor with this front, but the overall
global pattern suggests it will most likely not be a major event
as most energy will likely be pushed east quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow showers continue to linger across portions of the
Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening behind the cold front.
These showers are anticipated to diminish after sunset this
evening as the atmosphere becomes more stable. A weak ridge of
high pressure builds over the region on Friday causing a diminish
of showers except across extreme northwest Montana into Glacier
Park. This ridge allows for the development of patchy fog,
particularly at KGPI and KMSO.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 051039
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
339 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A weak wave of energy will move through the building
ridge this morning and afternoon producing mainly light mountain
snow. Accumulations will be light, though mountain passes along
the MT/ID and in the Glacier National Park region, could see a
light coating on the roads. Some valleys of northwestern Montana
could see a few flurries, but not expected to accumulate. The
snow showers will end for the most part by late afternoon, except
for the mountains of extreme northwest Montana.

The more impactful system will be moving into the region late
tonight, producing widespread precipitation. Snow levels will
start off above most valleys (4500 feet), with snow mainly
impacting mountain passes. Once the cold front pushes through
Saturday afternoon, snow levels will lower to valley floors in
western Montana, and down to the valleys of central Idaho, that
are above 4000 feet. The mountains and mountain passes will see
several inches of snow, somewhere between 6-10 inches. The
valleys of western Montana will see lighter accumulations, on the
order of 1-2 inches. However, atmospheric profiles still indicate
the potential for snow bands developing late afternoon into the
evening hours. Areas susceptible to these bands will be along the
I-90 corridor form Alberton to Drummond, the Seeley/Swan Region,
and locations on the east side of Flathead Lake. If under one of
these bands, you could see a few more inches of snow, with road
conditions greatly deteriorating in a very short distance.

Gusty southwest winds will also accompany this weather disturbance
in the Grangeville area tonight and Saturday morning. Winds could
gust as high as 45 mph for a brief period. The mountains of
western Montana will see these winds by the afternoon, with gusts
approaching 50 mph at the higher elevations.

Sunday a strong ridge starts building over the region. Cold air
pools and the resulting valley inversions will be cause for air
stagnation concerns. It will also cause warm temperatures in the
mountains early next week.

Late next week models are trying to break down the ridge with
another cold front, though confidence is low on the timing and
strength. Model agreement is poor with this front, but the overall
global pattern suggests it will most likely not be a major event
as most energy will likely be pushed east quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow showers continue to linger across portions of the
Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening behind the cold front.
These showers are anticipated to diminish after sunset this
evening as the atmosphere becomes more stable. A weak ridge of
high pressure builds over the region on Friday causing a diminish
of showers except across extreme northwest Montana into Glacier
Park. This ridge allows for the development of patchy fog,
particularly at KGPI and KMSO.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




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