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000
FXUS65 KMSO 011017
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
417 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...Very Hot & Dry Saturday and Sunday...
...Return to Daily Thunderstorm Chances by Monday...

.DISCUSSION...
A very hot and dry air mass will impact the northern Rockies
through Sunday as a strong ridge of high pressure moves into the
area. Temperatures should peak for most areas on Sunday at about
10 to 15 degrees above normal, but generally a few degrees shy of
records. For reference, the last time Missoula and Kalispell were
within range of triple digits was the 4th of July.

Critical fire weather conditions are also expected this weekend,
especially across northwest Montana where very dry fuel conditions
will coincide with very low relative humidity, hot temperatures,
local breezy conditions, and an unstable atmosphere this
afternoon. In addition to a historically dry spring, northwest
Montana did not receive much precipitation from the recent storm
earlier this week, hence the very dry fuels.

On Monday, the hot and dry pattern will begin to change as the flow
shifts to more southwesterly. The airmass associated with this
flow pattern will be more moist, and bring chances for showers for
the first half of the weak. Initially showers could be dry, but as
moisture increases, brief heavy rains with occasional lightning
will be possible. Wednesday currently looks like the day with the
best chance for some stronger thunderstorms, especially in the
Lehmi county & southwest Montana region. Temperatures will
moderate during the work week as well, with highs closer to
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION....Clear skies will continue for all terminals today.
Breezy winds are expected by this afternoon, with the stronger
winds over northwest Montana. KGPI may see gusts as high as 20kts.
Density altitudes will be high today and Sunday with very hot
temperatures in the area.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Glacier Park...Kootenai...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation...West Lolo.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 011017
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
417 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...Very Hot & Dry Saturday and Sunday...
...Return to Daily Thunderstorm Chances by Monday...

.DISCUSSION...
A very hot and dry air mass will impact the northern Rockies
through Sunday as a strong ridge of high pressure moves into the
area. Temperatures should peak for most areas on Sunday at about
10 to 15 degrees above normal, but generally a few degrees shy of
records. For reference, the last time Missoula and Kalispell were
within range of triple digits was the 4th of July.

Critical fire weather conditions are also expected this weekend,
especially across northwest Montana where very dry fuel conditions
will coincide with very low relative humidity, hot temperatures,
local breezy conditions, and an unstable atmosphere this
afternoon. In addition to a historically dry spring, northwest
Montana did not receive much precipitation from the recent storm
earlier this week, hence the very dry fuels.

On Monday, the hot and dry pattern will begin to change as the flow
shifts to more southwesterly. The airmass associated with this
flow pattern will be more moist, and bring chances for showers for
the first half of the weak. Initially showers could be dry, but as
moisture increases, brief heavy rains with occasional lightning
will be possible. Wednesday currently looks like the day with the
best chance for some stronger thunderstorms, especially in the
Lehmi county & southwest Montana region. Temperatures will
moderate during the work week as well, with highs closer to
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION....Clear skies will continue for all terminals today.
Breezy winds are expected by this afternoon, with the stronger
winds over northwest Montana. KGPI may see gusts as high as 20kts.
Density altitudes will be high today and Sunday with very hot
temperatures in the area.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Glacier Park...Kootenai...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation...West Lolo.

ID...&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 312025
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
225 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...Very Hot Saturday and Sunday...
...Threat of Thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...A very hot air mass will impact the northern Rockies
through Sunday. Temperatures should peak most areas (Orofino,
Grangeville eastward across Libby, Kalispell, Seeley Lake, Missoula,
Hamilton, Salmon, Anaconda, Butte) on Sunday about 10 to 15
degrees above normal...but a few degrees shy of records.

Critical fire weather conditions are also expected, especially
across northwest Montana where very dry fuel conditions/fire
danger will be further exaggerated by very low relative humidity,
the heat, local breezy conditions, and an unstable atmosphere
Saturday afternoon.

Moisture should start to shift over north central Idaho and
western Montana Sunday night with further moistening of the air
mass into Tuesday. This should translate into an increasing chance
of thunderstorms by early next week. Initially the storms may not
produce much precipitation. However, as the air mass moistens,
more showers are expected to develop with time...into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION....Clear skies and light diurnal afternoon/evening
winds are expected into tonight for all area terminals under
persistent high pressure.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening Flathead/Glacier Park...Kootenai...Salish and
     Kootenai Reservation...West Lolo.

ID...&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 311010
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
410 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...Very dry conditions are occurring across the
Northern Rockies as the anticipated ridge of high pressure has now
positioned itself comfortably over the region. Hot, near-record
high temperatures will occur the next 3 days across the entire
region. Many lower valley locations in central Idaho will be well
into the triple digits each day. In western Montana, expect upper
90s to near 100 degrees in the lower valleys of northwest Montana
and parts of west central Montana, including the Bitterroot and
Missoula Valleys.

A little bit of monsoon moisture starts to creep its way into
central Idaho and southwest Montana Sunday night, which then
spreads northward Monday and Monday night. Given the very dry
atmosphere that will occur at lower levels this weekend, we expect
storms to initially contain little rainfall Sunday night into
parts of Monday. Lightning could become a problem for potential
wildfire starts during this time. By late Monday afternoon, the
atmosphere will have moistened up enough for some rain to finally
fall with storms.

Tuesday through Friday...Several short waves of energy will eject from
an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. This instability,
plus moisture being drawn in from the southwest, will produce
periods of thunderstorms each day and possibly overnight as well.
Confidence is moderate to high for this solution, however: it
lowers drastically when trying to decide the amount of coverage
and intensity of these storms. Stay tuned, as next week could be
pretty active. All of this considered, storms will certainly
increase the amount of lightning output in the region, and could
pose a risk for fire weather concerns once again across Idaho and
Montana.

&&

.AVIATION....Clear skies and light diurnal afternoon/evening
winds are once again expected today and tonight for all area
terminals under persistent high pressure.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 311010
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
410 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...Very dry conditions are occurring across the
Northern Rockies as the anticipated ridge of high pressure has now
positioned itself comfortably over the region. Hot, near-record
high temperatures will occur the next 3 days across the entire
region. Many lower valley locations in central Idaho will be well
into the triple digits each day. In western Montana, expect upper
90s to near 100 degrees in the lower valleys of northwest Montana
and parts of west central Montana, including the Bitterroot and
Missoula Valleys.

A little bit of monsoon moisture starts to creep its way into
central Idaho and southwest Montana Sunday night, which then
spreads northward Monday and Monday night. Given the very dry
atmosphere that will occur at lower levels this weekend, we expect
storms to initially contain little rainfall Sunday night into
parts of Monday. Lightning could become a problem for potential
wildfire starts during this time. By late Monday afternoon, the
atmosphere will have moistened up enough for some rain to finally
fall with storms.

Tuesday through Friday...Several short waves of energy will eject from
an upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. This instability,
plus moisture being drawn in from the southwest, will produce
periods of thunderstorms each day and possibly overnight as well.
Confidence is moderate to high for this solution, however: it
lowers drastically when trying to decide the amount of coverage
and intensity of these storms. Stay tuned, as next week could be
pretty active. All of this considered, storms will certainly
increase the amount of lightning output in the region, and could
pose a risk for fire weather concerns once again across Idaho and
Montana.

&&

.AVIATION....Clear skies and light diurnal afternoon/evening
winds are once again expected today and tonight for all area
terminals under persistent high pressure.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 302041
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
241 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A noticeable change in temperatures will begin
today throughout western Montana and central Idaho. A moderately
strong ridge high pressure will continue to build over the
Northern Rockies through the weekend.

Starting tomorrow, lower valleys in central Idaho, like the lower
Hells Canyon area will begin to see highs above the 100F mark.
Many valleys of western Montana will see highs in the lower to mid
90s. By Saturday and especially Sunday, some western Montana
valleys could also see the 100F mark! We haven`t seen 100 degrees
in Missoula, for example, since the last week of June this summer.

Next week...
As the stable ridge of high pressure breaks down on Monday,
monsoonal moisture will move into the region and will allow
thunderstorms to develop each day. Thunderstorms will be initially
on the dry side, but will eventually moisten up as we get more surges
of monsoonal moisture by the middle of next week. Models have been
very inconsistent on the timing and the location of the
thunderstorms, but nonetheless most areas should see active
weather next week.


&&

.AVIATION....Mostly clear skies and light and variable winds
expected throughout the region tonight and tomorrow.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 302041
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
241 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A noticeable change in temperatures will begin
today throughout western Montana and central Idaho. A moderately
strong ridge high pressure will continue to build over the
Northern Rockies through the weekend.

Starting tomorrow, lower valleys in central Idaho, like the lower
Hells Canyon area will begin to see highs above the 100F mark.
Many valleys of western Montana will see highs in the lower to mid
90s. By Saturday and especially Sunday, some western Montana
valleys could also see the 100F mark! We haven`t seen 100 degrees
in Missoula, for example, since the last week of June this summer.

Next week...
As the stable ridge of high pressure breaks down on Monday,
monsoonal moisture will move into the region and will allow
thunderstorms to develop each day. Thunderstorms will be initially
on the dry side, but will eventually moisten up as we get more surges
of monsoonal moisture by the middle of next week. Models have been
very inconsistent on the timing and the location of the
thunderstorms, but nonetheless most areas should see active
weather next week.


&&

.AVIATION....Mostly clear skies and light and variable winds
expected throughout the region tonight and tomorrow.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 301009
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
409 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...Hot and Dry through Sunday...
...Increasing Thunderstorm Potential Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will begin to noticeably increase today
as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the Northern Rockies.
This ridge will further strengthen over the next several days, and
temperatures could rise to near-record territory in a few areas:

Central Idaho: Lower valleys, especially the lower Hells Canyon
area, will see temperatures well over 100 degrees Saturday and
Sunday.

Western Montana: Hottest temperatures will be Saturday and Sunday.
Expect temperatures hovering around 100 degrees in the lower
valleys of northwest Montana, such as Libby and Thompson Falls.
Elsewhere in western Montana, expect mid to upper 90s with some
areas in the Bitterroot Valley approaching 100 degrees Sunday.

A pattern change will begin late Sunday, as monsoonal moisture
sneaks up into the region Sunday night and Monday. This will
increase the potential for a few thunderstorms, mainly in central
Idaho, the southern Bitterroot, and across southwest Montana.

Low pressure will amplify off the west coast of the United States
by Tuesday and Wednesday. The resultant increasing southwest flow
aloft will help usher in additional moisture. This will combine with
increasing dynamic support to present continued thunderstorm
potential across the entire Northern Rockies. That being said,
confidence at this time is somewhat low for the possible coverage
and/or intensity of storms. Temperatures during this period will
lower to near-normal readings in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION....Vfr conditions will occur at all terminals today.
Late afternoon mixing winds around 10-15 knots will occur at all
terminals between 30/2200z and 31/0100z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




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