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000
FXUS65 KMSO 292102
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
302 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially so for Lemhi County, southwest Montana
(Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key threat will
be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm motion that
may produce urban, small stream or even flash flooding. These
storms should show signs of diminishing shortly after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at hand as
monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into the
Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...The afternoon and evening thunderstorm threat will be
mostly at KSMN and KBTM. Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO
and KGPI late this afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out
after sunset with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 292102
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
302 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially so for Lemhi County, southwest Montana
(Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key threat will
be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm motion that
may produce urban, small stream or even flash flooding. These
storms should show signs of diminishing shortly after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at hand as
monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into the
Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...The afternoon and evening thunderstorm threat will be
mostly at KSMN and KBTM. Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO
and KGPI late this afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out
after sunset with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 292058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
258 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially the case for Lemhi County, southwest
Montana (Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key
threat will be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm
motion that may produce urban, small stream or even flash
flooding. These storms should show signs of diminishing shortly
after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A relatively hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at
hand as monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into
the Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will be very similar to Monday: the morning
hours will be quite stable, but there will be another threat for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms to impact KSMN and KBTM.
Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this
afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset
with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 292058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
258 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through this evening across parts of the Northern
Rockies. This is especially the case for Lemhi County, southwest
Montana (Butte area) and along the Continental Divide. The key
threat will be heavy rain from storms with extremely slow storm
motion that may produce urban, small stream or even flash
flooding. These storms should show signs of diminishing shortly
after sunset.

Another round of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop on Wednesday as an upper level disturbance (presently
tracking through Nevada and northern California) makes its way
across Idaho and Montana. Again the chief threat will be for heavy
rain from slow moving thunderstorms which could result in similar
flooding threats to perhaps a more widespread area. Those living
near recent wildfire burn scars, narrow canyons, urban areas with
poor drainage or other typically flood prone locations should be
on the lookout for approaching storms and have a plan in place to
avoid the dangers of flooding.

Yet another weather feature is forecast to move around the ridge
of high pressure and approach the Northern Rockies on Friday. This
impulse appears to originate from the remnants of what was once
Tropical Storm Hernan (now an extra-tropical cyclone) over the
eastern Pacific. The global models (GFS & ECMWF) are having
trouble showing consistency with this feature, largely due to the
complexities associated with the transition from tropical to
extra-tropical and thus we approach the forecast for Friday and
Friday night with some caution. Either way, a modest push of
monsoonal moisture is likely to occur Friday into Saturday and
could result in heavier precipitation. But how widespread and
strong will largely depend upon where this feature tracks,
something we hope to hone in on with upcoming model runs.

A relatively hot weekend with afternoon thunderstorms appears at
hand as monsoonal moisture and waves of instability stream into
the Northern Rockies. This trend seems likely to continue even
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will be very similar to Monday: the morning
hours will be quite stable, but there will be another threat for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms to impact KSMN and KBTM.
Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this
afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset
with winds diminishing area-wide.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 290948
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...Another very warm day is expected for the Northern
Rockies, with daytime highs near or slightly above values observed
yesterday. This afternoon, a push of moisture from the south will set
off a few more afternoon/evening thundershowers across southwest
Montana and central Idaho. Since many of these will be terrain-
driven, a few storms may also pop up over the terrain along the
Continental Divide as well.

The chance for thunderstorm development increases Wednesday
afternoon and evening, as more moisture and instability will be
available to produce more abundant storms. Gusty winds, brief but
heavy rainfall, and plentiful lightning will be the major threats
to those planning on being outdoors.

Unfortunately, it doesn`t seem that we are relieved of this
unsettled, daily pattern of thunderstorm occurring through the
end of the week into the weekend. Mornings will start out quite
pleasant, and temperatures overall will be around normal (or
slightly warmer) through the end of next weekend. The only thing
to watch out for is the development of late-day storms and how
these will impact your plans if you have recreational activities
outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...Today will be very similar to Monday: the morning
hours will be quite stable, but there will be another threat for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms to impact KSMN and KBTM.
Breezy north winds are possible at KMSO and KGPI late this
afternoon as well. Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset
with winds diminishing area-wide.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Allegretto

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 282047
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The weather over the Northern Rockies this week will be dominated
by a ridge of high pressure centered over Western Montana and
monsoonal moisture moving slowly around the ridge throughout the
period. The high pressure under the ridge will bring continued hot
temperatures, and the moisture support a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at times throughout the week. With an absence of any
significant upper-level features to aid in triggering storms,
the main factor will be very weak and subtle impulses moving
through the ridge, and thunderstorm chances will be largely
dependent on moisture availability. Thus, while there is low
confidence in any one day, it is likely that midweek will have the
best chance of thunderstorm activity as models show the best
moisture moving through in that period.

In terms of impacts to Western Montana and North-Central Idaho, we
are not expecting anything significant at this time as the storms
do not look to be particularly strong. Lightning is still a
concern, as with all thunderstorms, although increasing moisture
during the week could help offset fire vulnerability. Flash
flooding, while not outside the realm of possibility, is not a big
concern at this time as storm motion looks to speed up by the time
the best moisture arrives midweek.

Looking ahead to the latter part of the week and into the
weekend, there is a potential for a stronger upper-level disturbance,
originally rooted in the subtropics, to drift northward and bring
better instability as well as increased moisture to the Northern
Rockies around Saturday. We will be watching this feature closely
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...A small threat exists for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly impacting KSMN and perhaps KBTM. Meanwhile,
breezy north winds are possible at KMSO late this afternoons.
Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset with winds
diminishing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 282047
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
247 PM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The weather over the Northern Rockies this week will be dominated
by a ridge of high pressure centered over Western Montana and
monsoonal moisture moving slowly around the ridge throughout the
period. The high pressure under the ridge will bring continued hot
temperatures, and the moisture support a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at times throughout the week. With an absence of any
significant upper-level features to aid in triggering storms,
the main factor will be very weak and subtle impulses moving
through the ridge, and thunderstorm chances will be largely
dependent on moisture availability. Thus, while there is low
confidence in any one day, it is likely that midweek will have the
best chance of thunderstorm activity as models show the best
moisture moving through in that period.

In terms of impacts to Western Montana and North-Central Idaho, we
are not expecting anything significant at this time as the storms
do not look to be particularly strong. Lightning is still a
concern, as with all thunderstorms, although increasing moisture
during the week could help offset fire vulnerability. Flash
flooding, while not outside the realm of possibility, is not a big
concern at this time as storm motion looks to speed up by the time
the best moisture arrives midweek.

Looking ahead to the latter part of the week and into the
weekend, there is a potential for a stronger upper-level disturbance,
originally rooted in the subtropics, to drift northward and bring
better instability as well as increased moisture to the Northern
Rockies around Saturday. We will be watching this feature closely
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...A small threat exists for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly impacting KSMN and perhaps KBTM. Meanwhile,
breezy north winds are possible at KMSO late this afternoons.
Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset with winds
diminishing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 280948
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...The beginning of the day will be quite pleasant with
another warm afternoon on tap. Today and Tuesday will be the
warmest days this week, with temperatures ranging well into the
90s across the region. Moisture streaming northward and into the
area from the Desert Southwest will combine with destabilizing
afternoon conditions to provide a small threat for thunderstorms
across central Idaho (mainly the Salmon/Leadore area) and southwest
Montana. This threat will enhance each afternoon through the week,
with Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons looking the most favorable
for afternoon storm development. All of this will occur with the
ridge of high pressure still well in place over the western U.S. -
with the expectation of unsettled afternoon/evening conditions
continuing Thursday right into the weekend. Plan for scattered to
widespread thunderstorms, none of which are expected to be severe
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Predominantly light winds and mostly clear skies are
expected again today. One exception will be moisture streaming
northward from the Desert Southwest, which will provide a small
threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly impacting
KSMN and perhaps KBTM. A north wind will kick up in the late
afternoon and bring about some gusty winds, impacting KMSO.
Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset with winds
diminishing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Allegretto

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 280948
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
348 AM MDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...The beginning of the day will be quite pleasant with
another warm afternoon on tap. Today and Tuesday will be the
warmest days this week, with temperatures ranging well into the
90s across the region. Moisture streaming northward and into the
area from the Desert Southwest will combine with destabilizing
afternoon conditions to provide a small threat for thunderstorms
across central Idaho (mainly the Salmon/Leadore area) and southwest
Montana. This threat will enhance each afternoon through the week,
with Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons looking the most favorable
for afternoon storm development. All of this will occur with the
ridge of high pressure still well in place over the western U.S. -
with the expectation of unsettled afternoon/evening conditions
continuing Thursday right into the weekend. Plan for scattered to
widespread thunderstorms, none of which are expected to be severe
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Predominantly light winds and mostly clear skies are
expected again today. One exception will be moisture streaming
northward from the Desert Southwest, which will provide a small
threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly impacting
KSMN and perhaps KBTM. A north wind will kick up in the late
afternoon and bring about some gusty winds, impacting KMSO.
Conditions will clear out shortly after sunset with winds
diminishing.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Allegretto

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 272042
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
242 PM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...Building high pressure has produced a very nice day
across western Montana and Central Idaho. Temperatures should
reach the 90s for much of the valleys of Western Montana with mid
90s for portions of Central Idaho.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will continue to control the
weather across the region with temperatures continuing to warm.
Upper 90s will be common in western Montana and a few 100s are
expected in west Central Idaho. Some southwest monsoonal moisture
though will creep up underneath the ridge and with some
instability to work with, a few thunderstorms are expected to
develop. This will be more evident in Southwestern Montana and
Lemhi County of Idaho. The storms are expected to be the more
common airmass variety with very little potential of becoming
severe.

From mid-week to the end of the week, the ridge begins to weaken a
little, allowing temperatures to slightly drop and showers and
thunderstorms to migrate further north into West-Central Montana.


&&

.AVIATION...Great flying conditions will continue this evening and
into tomorrow. Predominantly light winds and mostly clear skies
are expected. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
tomorrow afternoon across SW Montana and Central Idaho, with an
outside chance of storms impacting KBTM and KSMN.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 270920
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
320 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...As high pressure continues to develop over the
western United States, warming and drying will persist across the
Northern Rockies once again today. Expect mostly to partly sunny skies
and temperatures rising a few degrees higher than Saturday.

Monday and Tuesday, the region will begin to see a change in
conditions despite remaining under the influence of high pressure.
Desert Southwest monsoonal moisture will progress northward into
Idaho and portions of western Montana and will combine with
enough instability each afternoon and evening to bring about the
threat for convection. This will be especially evident by mid to
late week when the most moisture and instability will be
available. Right now, the storms seem like they will be the "garden
variety" type, with the biggest threat being to wildfire
abatement operations.

By Friday into Saturday, models deviate in solutions on how to
handle a shortwave trough moving across western Montana/central Idaho.
Of the two scenarios depicted, there is quite a difference in what would
occur for us here in the Northern Rockies, so have opted to keep
climatological mentioning of precipitation chances through next
weekend until a more agreed-upon pattern emerges.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly sunny skies will be the story again today, with
light and variable winds. Some high clouds will migrate north
across the region, but otherwise...expect another beautiful
day out there.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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