Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KMSO 252039
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
239 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...Widespread cellular thunderstorms are being
observed across central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon.
Storms will continue to develop through this evening, with
lightning and small (pea-sized) hail being the main threats. Brief
rainfall and gusty winds may also accompany many of the
thunderstorms that occur. People with outdoor plans should be
prepared for rapidly changing conditions.

This will be the trend for Tuesday afternoon and evening as well,
as this could be an equally-unstable day where thunderstorm
development is favorable. Central Idaho, namely those in Idaho
county and adjacent locations, could see the brunt of thunderstorm
activity. That being said, the entirety of the Northern Rockies
will be under the threat of small hail, lightning, and heavy
downpours. As before, anyone with outdoor plans should plan
accordingly for quickly changing, inclement conditions.

The upper-level low responsible for this week`s round of
precipitation will slow down as it moves across the northern
Rockies, allowing for a continued threat of showers/thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday (though not as strong due to gradual weakening
of the low). Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the week as
the low will reside directly over central Idaho at that time. A
warming trend will begin from that point on.

Looking ahead to next weekend, forecast models are continuing to
show a trend towards weak ridging across the western US. The ridge
will not be strong enough to suppress afternoon
shower/thunderstorm activity, but will bring warmer temps to the
area. Some valleys of central Idaho could approach 90 degrees,
with 80s in western Montana valleys. In fact, current guidance
suggests some of the warmest temperatures yet this year.



&&

.AVIATION...Scattered thunderstorms with periodic lightning, small
hail, and brief but heavy rainfall will be possible at all
aviation terminals through roughly 26/0400Z, with lingering
rainfall thereafter. Another round of similar convective activity
is likely Tuesday afternoon as well, between 26/1800Z and
27/0300Z for all terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 252039
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
239 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...Widespread cellular thunderstorms are being
observed across central Idaho and western Montana this afternoon.
Storms will continue to develop through this evening, with
lightning and small (pea-sized) hail being the main threats. Brief
rainfall and gusty winds may also accompany many of the
thunderstorms that occur. People with outdoor plans should be
prepared for rapidly changing conditions.

This will be the trend for Tuesday afternoon and evening as well,
as this could be an equally-unstable day where thunderstorm
development is favorable. Central Idaho, namely those in Idaho
county and adjacent locations, could see the brunt of thunderstorm
activity. That being said, the entirety of the Northern Rockies
will be under the threat of small hail, lightning, and heavy
downpours. As before, anyone with outdoor plans should plan
accordingly for quickly changing, inclement conditions.

The upper-level low responsible for this week`s round of
precipitation will slow down as it moves across the northern
Rockies, allowing for a continued threat of showers/thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday (though not as strong due to gradual weakening
of the low). Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the week as
the low will reside directly over central Idaho at that time. A
warming trend will begin from that point on.

Looking ahead to next weekend, forecast models are continuing to
show a trend towards weak ridging across the western US. The ridge
will not be strong enough to suppress afternoon
shower/thunderstorm activity, but will bring warmer temps to the
area. Some valleys of central Idaho could approach 90 degrees,
with 80s in western Montana valleys. In fact, current guidance
suggests some of the warmest temperatures yet this year.



&&

.AVIATION...Scattered thunderstorms with periodic lightning, small
hail, and brief but heavy rainfall will be possible at all
aviation terminals through roughly 26/0400Z, with lingering
rainfall thereafter. Another round of similar convective activity
is likely Tuesday afternoon as well, between 26/1800Z and
27/0300Z for all terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 251042
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
442 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A closed low pressure circulation from the northwest remains on-
track to impact the Northern Rockies with showers and
thunderstorms today through at least Thursday. The associated cold
front will sweep across the region from northwest to southeast,
with a line of thunderstorms concentrated along the frontal
boundary. Brief heavy rain, wind gusts to 40 mph, small hail, and
frequent lightning will be main weather hazards to be aware of
late this morning through this evening. Considering the track of
this low pressure system and southwesterly flow aloft today and
Tuesday, there is a very outside chance of thunderstorm
strengthening enough to produce hail that is one quarter inch in
diameter. Tuesday afternoon and evening will see a reprise of
showers and thunderstorms, however the best thunderstorm activity
will shift southward and eastward along the Continental Divide.
The precipitation chances begin to lessen, but not completely
dissipate on Wednesday and Thursday, as the low pressure slides
south and east of the region.

A weak ridge of high pressure will try to build over the region on
Friday, but several disturbances moving through Canada will allow
for showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop each afternoon
through the weekend. Models are in fairly good agreement with the
ridge breaking down and moving to the east on Monday. As the ridge
moves to our east, southwest flow will develop and provide a
favorable pattern for active thunderstorms next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will eventually impact all
area terminals during the next 24 hours. KGPI will be the first
local terminal to be impacted with showers and thunderstorms,
beginning around 25/1600Z. KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN will be impacted
by showers and thunderstorms beginning 25/2000Z. Lightning,
temporarily lowered ceilings and visibility, very small hail, and
brief wind gusts over 25 knots are possible. All terminals will
see diminishing precipitation after 26/0300Z, however a slight
chance of additional showers will remain through the remainder of
the evening and overnight. Terrain will be obscured at times.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 251042
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
442 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A closed low pressure circulation from the northwest remains on-
track to impact the Northern Rockies with showers and
thunderstorms today through at least Thursday. The associated cold
front will sweep across the region from northwest to southeast,
with a line of thunderstorms concentrated along the frontal
boundary. Brief heavy rain, wind gusts to 40 mph, small hail, and
frequent lightning will be main weather hazards to be aware of
late this morning through this evening. Considering the track of
this low pressure system and southwesterly flow aloft today and
Tuesday, there is a very outside chance of thunderstorm
strengthening enough to produce hail that is one quarter inch in
diameter. Tuesday afternoon and evening will see a reprise of
showers and thunderstorms, however the best thunderstorm activity
will shift southward and eastward along the Continental Divide.
The precipitation chances begin to lessen, but not completely
dissipate on Wednesday and Thursday, as the low pressure slides
south and east of the region.

A weak ridge of high pressure will try to build over the region on
Friday, but several disturbances moving through Canada will allow
for showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop each afternoon
through the weekend. Models are in fairly good agreement with the
ridge breaking down and moving to the east on Monday. As the ridge
moves to our east, southwest flow will develop and provide a
favorable pattern for active thunderstorms next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will eventually impact all
area terminals during the next 24 hours. KGPI will be the first
local terminal to be impacted with showers and thunderstorms,
beginning around 25/1600Z. KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN will be impacted
by showers and thunderstorms beginning 25/2000Z. Lightning,
temporarily lowered ceilings and visibility, very small hail, and
brief wind gusts over 25 knots are possible. All terminals will
see diminishing precipitation after 26/0300Z, however a slight
chance of additional showers will remain through the remainder of
the evening and overnight. Terrain will be obscured at times.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 242104 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers crossing the Montana/Idaho border this
afternoon will develop into scattered thunderstorms through sundown.
Given that a few storms in north central Idaho produced small hail
and lightning on Saturday and similar meteorological conditions
exists today, some storms today will likely have similar
characteristics. If you have plans to be outdoors, be aware of
this threat. Scattered showers will also be present across western
Montana, though the coverage won`t be as widespread as on
Saturday, and lightning potential will be much less.

Monday through Wednesday will feature increased chances for
rainfall and thunderstorms as an upper-level low pressure system
swings into the area. The atmosphere will become more unstable
during the afternoons and evenings, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms across central Idaho and western Montana.
The threats will once again be small hail, lightning, and brief
but heavy downpours. Given that Monday is Memorial Day, and many
may have outdoor plans, please prepare for quickly changing
conditions across the Northern Rockies through Monday night. Right
now, rock and mudslides over roadways do not appear to be a
concern, but those living or recreating in areas prone to rock
slides should beware of this potential. Those recreating on area
lakes and rivers should be especially aware of the threat of
lightning and gusty winds near thunderstorms. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, the greatest threat of thunderstorms migrates to
southwest Montana and the Continental Divide, and potential
impacts remain the same.

The upper-low slowly weakens as it drifts over our area Wednesday
and Thursday, though sufficient lingering moisture and instability
will allow for a continuing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with
a warming trend thereafter.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
models are converging on the idea of a building ridge across the
western US. Consequently, confidence is building in a warm period
arriving by the weekend, with lower-elevation valleys perhaps
approaching 90 degrees. A few afternoon thunderstorms would
likely continue under this pattern as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 242104 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers crossing the Montana/Idaho border this
afternoon will develop into scattered thunderstorms through sundown.
Given that a few storms in north central Idaho produced small hail
and lightning on Saturday and similar meteorological conditions
exists today, some storms today will likely have similar
characteristics. If you have plans to be outdoors, be aware of
this threat. Scattered showers will also be present across western
Montana, though the coverage won`t be as widespread as on
Saturday, and lightning potential will be much less.

Monday through Wednesday will feature increased chances for
rainfall and thunderstorms as an upper-level low pressure system
swings into the area. The atmosphere will become more unstable
during the afternoons and evenings, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms across central Idaho and western Montana.
The threats will once again be small hail, lightning, and brief
but heavy downpours. Given that Monday is Memorial Day, and many
may have outdoor plans, please prepare for quickly changing
conditions across the Northern Rockies through Monday night. Right
now, rock and mudslides over roadways do not appear to be a
concern, but those living or recreating in areas prone to rock
slides should beware of this potential. Those recreating on area
lakes and rivers should be especially aware of the threat of
lightning and gusty winds near thunderstorms. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, the greatest threat of thunderstorms migrates to
southwest Montana and the Continental Divide, and potential
impacts remain the same.

The upper-low slowly weakens as it drifts over our area Wednesday
and Thursday, though sufficient lingering moisture and instability
will allow for a continuing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with
a warming trend thereafter.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
models are converging on the idea of a building ridge across the
western US. Consequently, confidence is building in a warm period
arriving by the weekend, with lower-elevation valleys perhaps
approaching 90 degrees. A few afternoon thunderstorms would
likely continue under this pattern as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 242104 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers crossing the Montana/Idaho border this
afternoon will develop into scattered thunderstorms through sundown.
Given that a few storms in north central Idaho produced small hail
and lightning on Saturday and similar meteorological conditions
exists today, some storms today will likely have similar
characteristics. If you have plans to be outdoors, be aware of
this threat. Scattered showers will also be present across western
Montana, though the coverage won`t be as widespread as on
Saturday, and lightning potential will be much less.

Monday through Wednesday will feature increased chances for
rainfall and thunderstorms as an upper-level low pressure system
swings into the area. The atmosphere will become more unstable
during the afternoons and evenings, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms across central Idaho and western Montana.
The threats will once again be small hail, lightning, and brief
but heavy downpours. Given that Monday is Memorial Day, and many
may have outdoor plans, please prepare for quickly changing
conditions across the Northern Rockies through Monday night. Right
now, rock and mudslides over roadways do not appear to be a
concern, but those living or recreating in areas prone to rock
slides should beware of this potential. Those recreating on area
lakes and rivers should be especially aware of the threat of
lightning and gusty winds near thunderstorms. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, the greatest threat of thunderstorms migrates to
southwest Montana and the Continental Divide, and potential
impacts remain the same.

The upper-low slowly weakens as it drifts over our area Wednesday
and Thursday, though sufficient lingering moisture and instability
will allow for a continuing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with
a warming trend thereafter.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
models are converging on the idea of a building ridge across the
western US. Consequently, confidence is building in a warm period
arriving by the weekend, with lower-elevation valleys perhaps
approaching 90 degrees. A few afternoon thunderstorms would
likely continue under this pattern as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 242104 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers crossing the Montana/Idaho border this
afternoon will develop into scattered thunderstorms through sundown.
Given that a few storms in north central Idaho produced small hail
and lightning on Saturday and similar meteorological conditions
exists today, some storms today will likely have similar
characteristics. If you have plans to be outdoors, be aware of
this threat. Scattered showers will also be present across western
Montana, though the coverage won`t be as widespread as on
Saturday, and lightning potential will be much less.

Monday through Wednesday will feature increased chances for
rainfall and thunderstorms as an upper-level low pressure system
swings into the area. The atmosphere will become more unstable
during the afternoons and evenings, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms across central Idaho and western Montana.
The threats will once again be small hail, lightning, and brief
but heavy downpours. Given that Monday is Memorial Day, and many
may have outdoor plans, please prepare for quickly changing
conditions across the Northern Rockies through Monday night. Right
now, rock and mudslides over roadways do not appear to be a
concern, but those living or recreating in areas prone to rock
slides should beware of this potential. Those recreating on area
lakes and rivers should be especially aware of the threat of
lightning and gusty winds near thunderstorms. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, the greatest threat of thunderstorms migrates to
southwest Montana and the Continental Divide, and potential
impacts remain the same.

The upper-low slowly weakens as it drifts over our area Wednesday
and Thursday, though sufficient lingering moisture and instability
will allow for a continuing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with
a warming trend thereafter.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
models are converging on the idea of a building ridge across the
western US. Consequently, confidence is building in a warm period
arriving by the weekend, with lower-elevation valleys perhaps
approaching 90 degrees. A few afternoon thunderstorms would
likely continue under this pattern as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 242104
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers crossing the Montana/Idaho border this
afternoon will develop into scattered thunderstorms through sundown.
Given that a few storms in north central Idaho produced small hail
and lightning on Saturday and smilier meteorological conditions
exists today, some storms today will likely have similar
characteristics. If you have plans to be outdoors, be aware of
this threat. Scattered showers will also be present across western
Montana, though the coverage won`t be as widespread as on
Saturday, and lightning potential will be much less.

Monday through Wednesday will feature increased chances for
rainfall and thunderstorms as an upper-level low pressure system
swings into the area. The atmosphere will become more unstable
during the afternoons and evenings, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms across central Idaho and western Montana.
The threats will once again be small hail, lightning, and brief
but heavy downpours. Given that Monday is Memorial Day, and many
may have outdoor plans, please prepare for quickly changing
conditions across the Northern Rockies through Monday night. Right
now, rock and mudslides over roadways do not appear to be a
concern, but those living or recreating in areas prone to rock
slides should beware of this potential. Those recreating on area
lakes and rivers should be especially aware of the threat of
lightning and gusty winds near thunderstorms. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, the greatest threat of thunderstorms migrates to
southwest Montana and the Continental Divide, and potential
impacts remain the same.

The upper-low slowly weakens as it drifts over our area Wednesday
and Thursday, though sufficient lingering moisture and instability
will allow for a continuing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with
a warming trend thereafter.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
models are converging on the idea of a building ridge across the
western US. Consequently, confidence is building in a warm period
arriving by the weekend, with lower-elevation valleys perhaps
approaching 90 degrees. A few afternoon thunderstorms would
likely continue under this pattern as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 242104
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers crossing the Montana/Idaho border this
afternoon will develop into scattered thunderstorms through sundown.
Given that a few storms in north central Idaho produced small hail
and lightning on Saturday and smilier meteorological conditions
exists today, some storms today will likely have similar
characteristics. If you have plans to be outdoors, be aware of
this threat. Scattered showers will also be present across western
Montana, though the coverage won`t be as widespread as on
Saturday, and lightning potential will be much less.

Monday through Wednesday will feature increased chances for
rainfall and thunderstorms as an upper-level low pressure system
swings into the area. The atmosphere will become more unstable
during the afternoons and evenings, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms across central Idaho and western Montana.
The threats will once again be small hail, lightning, and brief
but heavy downpours. Given that Monday is Memorial Day, and many
may have outdoor plans, please prepare for quickly changing
conditions across the Northern Rockies through Monday night. Right
now, rock and mudslides over roadways do not appear to be a
concern, but those living or recreating in areas prone to rock
slides should beware of this potential. Those recreating on area
lakes and rivers should be especially aware of the threat of
lightning and gusty winds near thunderstorms. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, the greatest threat of thunderstorms migrates to
southwest Montana and the Continental Divide, and potential
impacts remain the same.

The upper-low slowly weakens as it drifts over our area Wednesday
and Thursday, though sufficient lingering moisture and instability
will allow for a continuing chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with
a warming trend thereafter.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the week and into the weekend,
models are converging on the idea of a building ridge across the
western US. Consequently, confidence is building in a warm period
arriving by the weekend, with lower-elevation valleys perhaps
approaching 90 degrees. A few afternoon thunderstorms would
likely continue under this pattern as well.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 241011
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weak disturbance will cause scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The best area for
thunderstorm development will be over in Idaho county, Lemhi
county and the higher elevations of southwest Montana. With any
thunderstorm today, lightning will be the main threat with periods
of brief moderate rain.

A closed low pressure circulation from the northwest appears to
remain on-track among all available forecast models, with the bulk
of precipitation to occur in the Monday through Wednesday time
frame and most active during each afternoon and evening. The
orientation of the low pressure over southeast Washington on
Monday and Tuesday will be conducive for thunderstorms that track
from the southwest. This southwesterly "storm motion" will
translate to a few well-organized storms that will produce brief
gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail. The strength of
convection will be continually scrutinized over the next several
days.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be relatively muted on
Thursday and Friday afternoons, as the low pressure center moves
south and east of the Northern Rockies. All of this precipitation
will have only a minor impact on temperatures, with mild daytimes
and overnights.

Models are in a fairly good agreement with a ridge of high
pressure building over the region next weekend. If this holds
true, many valleys will see temperatures in the 80s with possible
90s in lower valleys of north central Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 241011
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
411 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A weak disturbance will cause scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. The best area for
thunderstorm development will be over in Idaho county, Lemhi
county and the higher elevations of southwest Montana. With any
thunderstorm today, lightning will be the main threat with periods
of brief moderate rain.

A closed low pressure circulation from the northwest appears to
remain on-track among all available forecast models, with the bulk
of precipitation to occur in the Monday through Wednesday time
frame and most active during each afternoon and evening. The
orientation of the low pressure over southeast Washington on
Monday and Tuesday will be conducive for thunderstorms that track
from the southwest. This southwesterly "storm motion" will
translate to a few well-organized storms that will produce brief
gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail. The strength of
convection will be continually scrutinized over the next several
days.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be relatively muted on
Thursday and Friday afternoons, as the low pressure center moves
south and east of the Northern Rockies. All of this precipitation
will have only a minor impact on temperatures, with mild daytimes
and overnights.

Models are in a fairly good agreement with a ridge of high
pressure building over the region next weekend. If this holds
true, many valleys will see temperatures in the 80s with possible
90s in lower valleys of north central Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop around the surrounding terrain of KBTM and KSMN this
afternoon. Main impacts will be partial mountain obscuration and
brief moderate rain.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 232105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
305 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon and evening showers will be possible
again today, due to continued unsettled weather. Some lightning is
possible is areas of showers, but will be infrequent. The
locations least likely to experience showers and lightning will be
Lincoln and Sanders counties in Montana, while most other
locations in central Idaho and western Montana will see
intermittent rainfall the rest of the day. Scattered showers and
thunder will once again be possible in a nearly identical fashion
for Sunday.

Memorial Day and Tuesday a low pressure system to the northwest
will slowly migrate over the area. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread on these days. Not all
locations in western Montana and north central Idaho will get rain
each day, but locations affected by showers can expect a few
tenths of an inch. Over the course of the early week, most
locations across the area will likely get accumulations of at
least a quarter inch. Thunderstorms with lightning and small hail
will be possible, so those with outdoor plans should plan
accordingly.

Expect a continued daily threat of showers and thunderstorms for
the latter half of next week. The upper-level low will take its
time to exit the area, allowing for continued enhancement of
moisture and lift and thus continuing the diurnal storm threat
Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoons. Forecast certainty
drops off quickly from that point on, so the current forecast
reflects climatology which is a daily chance of showers/t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Intermittent rain showers are likely for all terminals
through roughly 24/0500Z, with lightning possible at KBTM and
KSMN. Gusty winds out of the north-northeast will accompany
showers, with gusts up to 25 kts possible through the same
time frame. Unsettled conditions will return Sunday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 232105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
305 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon and evening showers will be possible
again today, due to continued unsettled weather. Some lightning is
possible is areas of showers, but will be infrequent. The
locations least likely to experience showers and lightning will be
Lincoln and Sanders counties in Montana, while most other
locations in central Idaho and western Montana will see
intermittent rainfall the rest of the day. Scattered showers and
thunder will once again be possible in a nearly identical fashion
for Sunday.

Memorial Day and Tuesday a low pressure system to the northwest
will slowly migrate over the area. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread on these days. Not all
locations in western Montana and north central Idaho will get rain
each day, but locations affected by showers can expect a few
tenths of an inch. Over the course of the early week, most
locations across the area will likely get accumulations of at
least a quarter inch. Thunderstorms with lightning and small hail
will be possible, so those with outdoor plans should plan
accordingly.

Expect a continued daily threat of showers and thunderstorms for
the latter half of next week. The upper-level low will take its
time to exit the area, allowing for continued enhancement of
moisture and lift and thus continuing the diurnal storm threat
Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoons. Forecast certainty
drops off quickly from that point on, so the current forecast
reflects climatology which is a daily chance of showers/t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Intermittent rain showers are likely for all terminals
through roughly 24/0500Z, with lightning possible at KBTM and
KSMN. Gusty winds out of the north-northeast will accompany
showers, with gusts up to 25 kts possible through the same
time frame. Unsettled conditions will return Sunday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 232105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
305 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon and evening showers will be possible
again today, due to continued unsettled weather. Some lightning is
possible is areas of showers, but will be infrequent. The
locations least likely to experience showers and lightning will be
Lincoln and Sanders counties in Montana, while most other
locations in central Idaho and western Montana will see
intermittent rainfall the rest of the day. Scattered showers and
thunder will once again be possible in a nearly identical fashion
for Sunday.

Memorial Day and Tuesday a low pressure system to the northwest
will slowly migrate over the area. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread on these days. Not all
locations in western Montana and north central Idaho will get rain
each day, but locations affected by showers can expect a few
tenths of an inch. Over the course of the early week, most
locations across the area will likely get accumulations of at
least a quarter inch. Thunderstorms with lightning and small hail
will be possible, so those with outdoor plans should plan
accordingly.

Expect a continued daily threat of showers and thunderstorms for
the latter half of next week. The upper-level low will take its
time to exit the area, allowing for continued enhancement of
moisture and lift and thus continuing the diurnal storm threat
Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoons. Forecast certainty
drops off quickly from that point on, so the current forecast
reflects climatology which is a daily chance of showers/t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Intermittent rain showers are likely for all terminals
through roughly 24/0500Z, with lightning possible at KBTM and
KSMN. Gusty winds out of the north-northeast will accompany
showers, with gusts up to 25 kts possible through the same
time frame. Unsettled conditions will return Sunday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 232105
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
305 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon and evening showers will be possible
again today, due to continued unsettled weather. Some lightning is
possible is areas of showers, but will be infrequent. The
locations least likely to experience showers and lightning will be
Lincoln and Sanders counties in Montana, while most other
locations in central Idaho and western Montana will see
intermittent rainfall the rest of the day. Scattered showers and
thunder will once again be possible in a nearly identical fashion
for Sunday.

Memorial Day and Tuesday a low pressure system to the northwest
will slowly migrate over the area. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread on these days. Not all
locations in western Montana and north central Idaho will get rain
each day, but locations affected by showers can expect a few
tenths of an inch. Over the course of the early week, most
locations across the area will likely get accumulations of at
least a quarter inch. Thunderstorms with lightning and small hail
will be possible, so those with outdoor plans should plan
accordingly.

Expect a continued daily threat of showers and thunderstorms for
the latter half of next week. The upper-level low will take its
time to exit the area, allowing for continued enhancement of
moisture and lift and thus continuing the diurnal storm threat
Wednesday and possibly Thursday afternoons. Forecast certainty
drops off quickly from that point on, so the current forecast
reflects climatology which is a daily chance of showers/t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION...Intermittent rain showers are likely for all terminals
through roughly 24/0500Z, with lightning possible at KBTM and
KSMN. Gusty winds out of the north-northeast will accompany
showers, with gusts up to 25 kts possible through the same
time frame. Unsettled conditions will return Sunday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 231012
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
412 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A disturbance moving in from the east will bring
scattered showers with isolated lightning strikes across western
Montana and north central Idaho today. The best area for
thunderstorm development looks to be over the terrain of Idaho
county this afternoon but an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out for any showers this afternoon. Brief periods of
moderate rain will be possible along the I-90 corridor and north
central Idaho. Northwest Montana could see a few light showers
develop along the terrain near Glacier Park, but overall dry
weather will persist through the weekend.

Sunday looks to be the driest day of the Memorial day weekend with
seasonal temperatures and a few light showers along the terrain in
the afternoon.

Model guidance and ensembles seem to agree upon a closed low
pressure system from the northwest moving across the Northern
Rockies Monday through Friday. The presence of such a closed low
circulation this time of year tends to suggest decent
precipitation. The best opportunity of precipitation will be
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, when a weak cold front associated
with the low creates a focal point for showers and thunderstorms
to develop. Otherwise, convection will be the main mechanism for
precipitation. As with any convective event, there will be drastic
differences in precipitation totals from location to location. The
total of this precipitation may cause smaller streams to respond
by running more vigorously, however will have only a small effect
on mainstem rivers. The precipitation and cloud cover will warm
overnights and cool afternoons.

By next weekend, some long range models suggest that a warm ridge
of high pressure will develop over the Inland Pacific Northwest
and later move over the Northern Rockies. Model guidance suggests
that low level moisture will remain in-place through at least
early the following week, resembling something of a monsoon type,
daily afternoon convection type scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers will begin to develop around noon
today near KBTM, KMSO, and KSMN. Main impacts with these showers
will be brief moderate rain, which could reduce ceilings and
obscure terrain especially at KBTM where shower activity looks to
be the greatest. Easterly winds are expected to increase at all
terminals this afternoon with wind gusts of 20-25 knots possible.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KMSO 231012
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
412 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A disturbance moving in from the east will bring
scattered showers with isolated lightning strikes across western
Montana and north central Idaho today. The best area for
thunderstorm development looks to be over the terrain of Idaho
county this afternoon but an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out for any showers this afternoon. Brief periods of
moderate rain will be possible along the I-90 corridor and north
central Idaho. Northwest Montana could see a few light showers
develop along the terrain near Glacier Park, but overall dry
weather will persist through the weekend.

Sunday looks to be the driest day of the Memorial day weekend with
seasonal temperatures and a few light showers along the terrain in
the afternoon.

Model guidance and ensembles seem to agree upon a closed low
pressure system from the northwest moving across the Northern
Rockies Monday through Friday. The presence of such a closed low
circulation this time of year tends to suggest decent
precipitation. The best opportunity of precipitation will be
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, when a weak cold front associated
with the low creates a focal point for showers and thunderstorms
to develop. Otherwise, convection will be the main mechanism for
precipitation. As with any convective event, there will be drastic
differences in precipitation totals from location to location. The
total of this precipitation may cause smaller streams to respond
by running more vigorously, however will have only a small effect
on mainstem rivers. The precipitation and cloud cover will warm
overnights and cool afternoons.

By next weekend, some long range models suggest that a warm ridge
of high pressure will develop over the Inland Pacific Northwest
and later move over the Northern Rockies. Model guidance suggests
that low level moisture will remain in-place through at least
early the following week, resembling something of a monsoon type,
daily afternoon convection type scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers will begin to develop around noon
today near KBTM, KMSO, and KSMN. Main impacts with these showers
will be brief moderate rain, which could reduce ceilings and
obscure terrain especially at KBTM where shower activity looks to
be the greatest. Easterly winds are expected to increase at all
terminals this afternoon with wind gusts of 20-25 knots possible.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 231012
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
412 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A disturbance moving in from the east will bring
scattered showers with isolated lightning strikes across western
Montana and north central Idaho today. The best area for
thunderstorm development looks to be over the terrain of Idaho
county this afternoon but an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be
ruled out for any showers this afternoon. Brief periods of
moderate rain will be possible along the I-90 corridor and north
central Idaho. Northwest Montana could see a few light showers
develop along the terrain near Glacier Park, but overall dry
weather will persist through the weekend.

Sunday looks to be the driest day of the Memorial day weekend with
seasonal temperatures and a few light showers along the terrain in
the afternoon.

Model guidance and ensembles seem to agree upon a closed low
pressure system from the northwest moving across the Northern
Rockies Monday through Friday. The presence of such a closed low
circulation this time of year tends to suggest decent
precipitation. The best opportunity of precipitation will be
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, when a weak cold front associated
with the low creates a focal point for showers and thunderstorms
to develop. Otherwise, convection will be the main mechanism for
precipitation. As with any convective event, there will be drastic
differences in precipitation totals from location to location. The
total of this precipitation may cause smaller streams to respond
by running more vigorously, however will have only a small effect
on mainstem rivers. The precipitation and cloud cover will warm
overnights and cool afternoons.

By next weekend, some long range models suggest that a warm ridge
of high pressure will develop over the Inland Pacific Northwest
and later move over the Northern Rockies. Model guidance suggests
that low level moisture will remain in-place through at least
early the following week, resembling something of a monsoon type,
daily afternoon convection type scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers will begin to develop around noon
today near KBTM, KMSO, and KSMN. Main impacts with these showers
will be brief moderate rain, which could reduce ceilings and
obscure terrain especially at KBTM where shower activity looks to
be the greatest. Easterly winds are expected to increase at all
terminals this afternoon with wind gusts of 20-25 knots possible.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities