000
FXUS65 KMSO 182040
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
240 PM MDT Sat May 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...Low level moisture from rain the last 24 hours
combined with an unstable atmosphere and surface heating is
producing numerous showers across much of the Northern Rockies
this afternoon. An isolated lightning strike or two are possible
with any shower this afternoon. Expect showers to persist through
the early evening hours with the exception of the continental
divide where showers will continue through Sunday morning. This
same scenario is expected Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday a weak ridge will nose its way into the region.
Sufficient low level moisture and heating will provide the
potential for showers in the afternoon again but be limited to
southwest Montana and along the divide.
Much warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday will return with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. Enjoy the warm and relatively dry
weather Monday and Tuesday as the pattern will change by mid
week.
Few changes to the forecast for Wednesday and beyond. Confidence
remains high for a closed low to impact the northern Rockies
Wednesday afternoon or evening bringing scattered. A few may contain
heavy rain.
Thursday through Memorial weekend is expected to be much cooler
and wet. The closed low will move over the northern Rockies and
remain nearly stationary. Confidence is high for rain during this
time frame. Some areas could receive significant amounts but
confidence on the timing and location of heavier amounts are
uncertain at this time.
Small stream flooding in northwest Montana remains a potential
concern with heavy rain, however, the slower timing of the system
raises the potential for overnight snow. In this scenario, travel
over mountain passes would be difficult and heavy snow at times
would cause slush on the roads even at lower elevations.
&&
.AVIATION...Showers will continue to develop and increase in
coverage as the evening hours neat, then decrease in coverage after
sunset. There is a slight chance for thunderstorm development
later this afternoon that could impact all aviation sites. These
storms will likely be week and short lived. Visibility and
ceilings will drop with the showers and thunderstorms, as well as
obstructing mountain terrain. Showers will again linger around
western Montana and central Idaho for Sunday.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 180941
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
341 AM MDT Sat May 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...Rain showers will continue across the Northern
Rockies, but a few breaks will also occur throughout the day.
Showers will be widespread in coverage, with periods of heavier
rainfall followed by periods of lighter showers. This pattern will
continue overnight and into Sunday as well, keeping conditions
rather dull and dreary. While most places will see rain at some
point today, the best focus of moisture will cover southwest
Montana and locations closest to Glacier National Park. Snow
showers may provide a light coating of new snowfall in the higher
terrain of GNP.
Temperatures on the whole will be a few degrees warmer than
Friday, but still much cooler than normal for mid May. Depending
on how often the sun breaks through the clouds, some parts of the
day could feel warmer and more humid as a result. Very similar
trends are expected through Monday, with each day warming a few
degrees.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence remains high for a
deepening closed low system developing over the Pacific Northwest.
This low system remains nearly stationary giving it plenty of time
to circulate warm, unstable and increasingly moist air up from the
south and into the Northern Rockies. Thunderstorms are becoming a
more prominent forecast element, as well as surges of localized
moderate to heavy rainfall. Glacier National Park and possibly the
Bob Marshall Wilderness area could be a main focal point for some
of the heaviest rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday...Forecast models suggest that the main low
circulation remains over the Pacific Northwest, but differ
considerably as to the location of heaviest rainfall. Much of this
uncertainty can be attributed to how each model handles the low
system. The GFS maintains a single low center, while the ECMWF
splits it into two separate low centers, dumbelling around each
other which alters the position and timing of precipitation into
the region. The evolution of the low system will continued to
monitored and hopefully the models help paint a clearer picture of
what we can expect down the road for Memorial weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...An upper level trough of low pressure will maintain a
moist, unstable environment over the Northern Rockies region today
and tonight. Numerous rain showers and lower ceilings will be
impacting most airfields across north-central Idaho and western
Montana. Mountain obscurement will be commonplace.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 180248
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
848 PM MDT Fri May 17 2013
.UPDATE...Canceled the snow advisory for Lost Trail pass.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The snow level has risen high enough that snow on
the pass is not a concern this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...Rain-showers will be on the increase this evening and
through the night for KGPI and nearby areas. Rain will begin to
decrease in coverage later this evening for aviation sites KBTM,
KSMN, and KMSO. Rain will occasionally reduce visibilities and
ceilings as well as obstruct mountain terrain all across western
Montana and Central Idaho. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible in central Idaho as well as northwest Montana this
evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM MDT Fri May 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A complex upper level closed low pressure system is slowly moving
across the Northern Rockies and central Idaho. Significant rainfall
amounts are likely through Saturday afternoon
IMPACTS:
25"-.50" through Saturday morning in the valleys of:
West Central & Southwest Montana
East Central Idaho.
25"-.50" through Saturday afternoon in the valleys of:
Northwest Montana (locally higher amounts)
50"-1.0" through Saturday afternoon in the mountains of:
Northwest Montana including Glacier NP.
(locally 1.5" in the highest elevations of Glacier NP.)
Rainfall will be greatest in Glacier NP as the upper low basically
stalls. This will be conducive for a good period of steady rain
through Saturday morning or early afternoon.
The mid & upper level closed low finally moves into Canada midday
leaving behind showery conditions through the afternoon hours in
most of the Northern Rockies. Showery conditions with no major
impacts are expected Sunday in between upper closed lows.
The next closed low dives down from British Columbia along the
Eastern Pacific. Models have slowed this down a bit. However the
potential still exists for a warm and moist southwest flow will be
ushered into the Northern Rockies. This combined with increasing
instability will produce an increasing confidence for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon. Strength of thunderstorm are somewhat uncertain.
Confidence remains high for the closed low to impact the Pacific
Northwest in the middle of next week, and confidence is increasing
that Wednesday northwest Montana will be a focal point for
precipitation. Northerly flow on the west side of this system will
bring in very cold air from Canada, while southerly flow will keep
warmer air and rain on the east side of the system. The most
uncertain part of the forecast is where the boundary between the
warm and cold air will line up, which will be a focal point for
precipitation. The most likely scenario for Wednesday with the
current forecast data is for snow in far northwestern Montana and
rain in Glacier National Park. The main concern with this system
is the potential for streams and small river flooding, though
travel over some mountain passes may also be difficult.
Beyond Wednesday, confidence if the forecast drops off quickly.
There is a lot of uncertainty with how it will evolve and interact
with a jet streak moving south of the low pressure center. Some
solutions rapidly move the system out while others cause the low
to split into two spiraling lows that could linger and cause
repeated precipitation events.
AVIATION...Rain-showers will be on the increase this evening and
through the night for KGPI and nearby areas. Rain will begin to
decrease in coverage later this evening for aviation sites KBTM,
KSMN, and KMSO. Rain will occasionally reduce visibilities and
ceilings as well as obstruct mountain terrain all across western
Montana and Central Idaho. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible in central Idaho as well as northwest Montana this
evening.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 172052
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
252 PM MDT Fri May 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A complex upper level closed low pressure system is slowly moving
across the Northern Rockies and central Idaho. Significant rainfall
amounts are likely through Saturday afternoon
IMPACTS:
.25"-.50" through Saturday morning in the valleys of:
West Central & Southwest Montana
East Central Idaho.
.25"-.50" through Saturday afternoon in the valleys of:
Northwest Montana (locally higher amounts)
.50"-1.0" through Saturday afternoon in the mountains of:
Northwest Montana including Glacier NP.
(locally 1.5" in the highest elevations of Glacier NP.)
Rainfall will be greatest in Glacier NP as the upper low basically
stalls. This will be conducive for a good period of steady rain
through Saturday morning or early afternoon.
The mid & upper level closed low finally moves into Canada midday
leaving behind showery conditions through the afternoon hours in
most of the Northern Rockies. Showery conditions with no major
impacts are expected Sunday in between upper closed lows.
The next closed low dives down from British Columbia along the
Eastern Pacific. Models have slowed this down a bit. However the
potential still exists for a warm and moist southwest flow will be
ushered into the Northern Rockies. This combined with increasing
instability will produce an increasing confidence for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon. Strength of thunderstorm are somewhat uncertain.
Confidence remains high for the closed low to impact the Pacific
Northwest in the middle of next week, and confidence is increasing
that Wednesday northwest Montana will be a focal point for
precipitation. Northerly flow on the west side of this system will
bring in very cold air from Canada, while southerly flow will keep
warmer air and rain on the east side of the system. The most
uncertain part of the forecast is where the boundary between the
warm and cold air will line up, which will be a focal point for
precipitation. The most likely scenario for Wednesday with the
current forecast data is for snow in far northwestern Montana and
rain in Glacier National Park. The main concern with this system
is the potential for streams and small river flooding, though
travel over some mountain passes may also be difficult.
Beyond Wednesday, confidence if the forecast drops off quickly.
There is a lot of uncertainty with how it will evolve and interact
with a jet streak moving south of the low pressure center. Some
solutions rapidly move the system out while others cause the low
to split into two spiraling lows that could linger and cause
repeated precipitation events.
&&
.AVIATION...Rain-showers will be on the increase this evening and
through the night for KGPI and nearby areas. Rain will begin to
decrease in coverage later this evening for aviation sites KBTM,
KSMN, and KMSO. Rain will occasionally reduce visibilities and
ceilings as well as obstruct mountain terrain all across western
Montana and Central Idaho. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible in central Idaho as well as northwest Montana this
evening.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Midnight MDT tonight for Lost
Trail Pass IN THE Eastern Lemhi County.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 171730
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1130 AM MDT Fri May 17 2013
.UPDATE...Issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOST TRAIL PASS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Steady precipitation is moving through the region.
It`s a bit cooler than thought over Lost trail pass. Cameras are
showing accumulating snows. The big impact will be slick
conditions from snow and slush. The melting snow could refreeze
this evening to produce continued slick roads, hence the advisory
through this evening.
&&
.AVIATION...Snow over lost trail pass will persist through the
early evening hours. Some of the snow is melting on the road but
will likely refreeze after sunset. Showers will continue across
all of western Montana and central Idaho this afternoon. Expect
scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
into the evening hours across north-central Idaho and western
Montana, which will temporarily lower ceilings and reduce
visibilities. On the other hand, southwest Montana and Lemhi
County will likely see steady rain develop during the day with low
ceilings and more frequently reductions to visibilities. Mountain
obscurement is also likely. KMSO, KBTM and KSMN terminals that will
be most impacted by rain, lower ceilings, reductions to
visibilities and terrain obscurations.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM MDT Fri May 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...The first in a series of mid level weather
disturbances is approaching central Idaho and western Montana
this morning. This wave is helping to initiate an area of showers
across central Idaho than will gradually work its way north into
western and southwest Montana this morning. The precipitation
returns over central Idaho have been light, but steady producing a
few hundredths of an inch per hour. All model data suggest that
precipitation will become more widespread as it moves north in
response to the wave becoming more defined and thus stronger. A
second, more intense wave presently moving on shore over central
California with be responsible for additional showers late this
afternoon across west central Montana and into northwest Montana
tonight. Although there will likely be pockets of heavier
precipitation and/or isolated thunderstorms producing bursts of
stronger precipitation, by and large rainfall will remain
persistently light throughout the day.
The main portion of a broad upper level trough will move over the
Northern Rockies on Saturday. The atmosphere under these types of
scenarios is often littered with showers, especially during the
afternoon, with a focus for the heaviest and/or more persistent
precipitation drawn near subtlety embedded mid level weather
disturbances. Though great variation remains in place amongst the
models, believe the focus for heavier or more persistent
precipitation will shift towards northwest Montana. However those
with plans to be outdoors on Saturday should plan to encounter at
least a few rain showers and continued cool, breezy conditions;
especially during the afternoon. Similar conditions (cool, breezy
and showery) are likely on Sunday. At this time the focus for the
heaviest precipitation appears to be along the Divide.
Monday...Next week will start a warming trend as a weak ridge
builds in between the two systems. Despite the ridge, there will
be enough residual atmospheric moisture and instability for a
chance of afternoon showers and even a thunderstorm or two across
much of the region.
Tuesday through Thursday...Confidence is high for a cutoff low to
affect the northern Rockies next week, and this will be a wet
system. However, considerable uncertainty remains in how this
system will be positioned, which will have dramatic impacts on
exactly which areas will have the most precipitation. If the low
system remains west of the area (over the Pacific Northwest), as
currently advertised by the forecast models, then thunderstorms
will be a key element for the Tuesday/Wednesday forecast. Another
possible scenario is for heavy rains across northwest Montana,
where river levels are high and runoff is in its peak season. This
remains a concern that will be monitored closely for potential
flooding impacts.
AVIATION...Showers will be developing this morning across Lemhi
County and southwest Montana, while conditions remain favorable in
northwest Montana. Moisture will be spreading north this morning
and the atmosphere will become increasingly more unstable during
the day. Expect scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and into the evening hours across north-central Idaho
and western Montana, which will temporarily lower ceilings and
reduce visibilities. On the other hand, southwest Montana and
Lemhi County will likely see steady rain develop during the day
with low ceilings and more frequently reductions to visibilities.
Mountain obscurement is also likely. KBTM and KSMN airfields will
be most impacted by rain, lower ceilings, reductions to
visibilities and terrain obscurations.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Midnight MDT tonight for Lost
Trail Pass IN THE Eastern Lemhi County.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 171000
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
400 AM MDT Fri May 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...The first in a series of mid level weather
disturbances is approaching central Idaho and western Montana
this morning. This wave is helping to initiate an area of showers
across central Idaho than will gradually work its way north into
western and southwest Montana this morning. The precipitation
returns over central Idaho have been light, but steady producing a
few hundredths of an inch per hour. All model data suggest that
precipitation will become more widespread as it moves north in
response to the wave becoming more defined and thus stronger. A
second, more intense wave presently moving on shore over central
California with be responsible for additional showers late this
afternoon across west central Montana and into northwest Montana
tonight. Although there will likely be pockets of heavier
precipitation and/or isolated thunderstorms producing bursts of
stronger precipitation, by and large rainfall will remain
persistently light throughout the day.
The main portion of a broad upper level trough will move over the
Northern Rockies on Saturday. The atmosphere under these types of
scenarios is often littered with showers, especially during the
afternoon, with a focus for the heaviest and/or more persistent
precipitation drawn near subtlety embedded mid level weather
disturbances. Though great variation remains in place amongst the
models, believe the focus for heavier or more persistent
precipitation will shift towards northwest Montana. However those
with plans to be outdoors on Saturday should plan to encounter at
least a few rain showers and continued cool, breezy conditions;
especially during the afternoon. Similar conditions (cool, breezy
and showery) are likely on Sunday. At this time the focus for the
heaviest precipitation appears to be along the Divide.
Monday...Next week will start a warming trend as a weak ridge
builds in between the two systems. Despite the ridge, there will
be enough residual atmospheric moisture and instability for a
chance of afternoon showers and even a thunderstorm or two across
much of the region.
Tuesday through Thursday...Confidence is high for a cutoff low to
affect the northern Rockies next week, and this will be a wet
system. However, considerable uncertainty remains in how this
system will be positioned, which will have dramatic impacts on
exactly which areas will have the most precipitation. If the low
system remains west of the area (over the Pacific Northwest), as
currently advertised by the forecast models, then thunderstorms
will be a key element for the Tuesday/Wednesday forecast. Another
possible scenario is for heavy rains across northwest Montana,
where river levels are high and runoff is in its peak season. This
remains a concern that will be monitored closely for potential
flooding impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...Showers will be developing this morning across Lemhi
County and southwest Montana, while conditions remain favorable in
northwest Montana. Moisture will be spreading north this morning
and the atmosphere will become increasingly more unstable during
the day. Expect scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and into the evening hours across north-central Idaho
and western Montana, which will temporarily lower ceilings and
reduce visibilities. On the other hand, southwest Montana and
Lemhi County will likely see steady rain develop during the day
with low ceilings and more frequently reductions to visibilities.
Mountain obscurement is also likely. KBTM and KSMN airfields will
be most impacted by rain, lower ceilings, reductions to
visibilities and terrain obscurations.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 162024
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
224 PM MDT Thu May 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...A few showers have developed across the Northern
Rockies this afternoon. A few have produced some lightning in
Lemhi county along with a few gusts in the 40 mph range. Showers
will continue to develop this afternoon and evening. A few
potential impacts from showers.
1. Brief heavy rain
2. Lightning
Showers will dissipate later this evening after sunset however a
strong shortwave will move into Lemhi county, Idaho and southwest
Montana toward dawn Friday. This system is very moist and will
provide much needed precipitation to this region.
A slow moving trough through this weekend followed by a deep
cutoff low next week will keep the northern Rockies cool and wet.
The upper level trough causing the cooler, wet weather this
weekend is accompanied by a wet airmass, especially over Lemhi
County, ID and southwest Montana.
Friday: Rain and showers across central Idaho and western Montana
with a broad band of heavier precipitation lining up somewhere in
Lemhi county, ID into southwestern Montana. Locations from Butte
through Anaconda and Georgetown Lake may see half an inch of rain
tomorrow. Elsewhere amounts will be much less, but showers will be
widespread.
Saturday: Those planning on being outdoors should be prepared for
another cool, wet day. Again, southwest Montana and the mountains
of central Idaho will be areas of focus for the rain, though most
of western Montana and central Idaho will see some rain.
Sunday: Plan for another showery day, but the amounts will be much
less as Sunday evening will start a transition period between
systems. Some locations in southwest Montana may receive around
0.75 inches of rain over the weekend as a whole.
Next week will start a warming trend as a weak ridge builds in
between the two systems. Despite the ridge, there will be
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Confidence is high for a cutoff low to affect the northern Rockies
next week, and this will be a wet system. However, considerable
uncertainty remains in how this system will be positioned, which
will have dramatic impacts on exactly what areas will have the
most precipitation. One possible scenario is for heavy rains
across northwest Montana, where river levels are high and runoff
is in its peak season. This remains a concern that will be
monitored closely for potential flooding impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact all
terminals through 17/0400z. These showers may contain brief heavy
rain and gusty winds up to 30-40 mph. Brief reduction in ceilings
and visibilities are also likely with showers. Early Friday
morning another weather disturbance will impact KSMN and KBTM with
steady rain, heavy at times, through much of the day. Low
visibilities, ceilings and mountain obscurations are likely. Rain
will progress northward and impact KMSO and KGPI after 17/1700z.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 160941
AFDMSO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
341 AM MDT Thu May 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...Rather pleasant springtime conditions are forecast
today with temperatures rising to be right around normal.
Scattered rain showers, which are presently showing up on radar,
will persist throughout the day laying a spattering of sprinkles
across Idaho and Montana. Cooler temperatures, both at night and
during the day, have dramatically slowed the snow melt cycle and
area rivers are either peaking or on the decline. So few, if any,
weather related impacts are anticipated today and tonight.
Friday morning the first in a series of broad upper level waves
will begin to influence the weather across the Northern Rockies.
Although the models classically struggle to depict the exact
location and passage of these waves, enough model similarities
exist to indicate that Lemhi County and southwest Montana will
likely awaken to some much needed rainfall as an area of more
organized showers shifts northeast throughout the day. Elsewhere
sufficient instability will be present during the afternoon for
scattered showers and perhaps a few shallow thunderstorms which
could briefly impact afternoon and evening outdoor plans.
The picture for Saturday is unfortunately a bit more muddy as
models are each showing a slightly different version of a
precipitation event persisting throughout the day. The good news
is that the best forcing behind this event remains east of the
Divide in most of the models. However the influence of this
atmospheric disturbance is so broad that persistent light rain
showers will at the very least be possible. This could place a
damper on any outdoor activities this weekend and people should be
prepared for cool, breezy and showery conditions.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night...Moist and unstable
conditions will remain over the Northern Rockies Region during
this period thanks to an broad upper level trough of low pressure.
Skies will be mostly cloudy with showers in the forecast. Daytime
temperatures will be running below normal due to increased
moisture, but nighttime lows will be near normal.
Monday and Monday Night...As one upper level low system exit the
region, another approaches the West Coast. The Northern Rockies
Region falls in-between these two features. Thus, there will be a
temporary improvement, with a decreased chance of precipitation,
especially Monday night. However, the atmosphere will be unstable
enough to support showers Monday afternoon.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Confidence is growing with respect to
a deep low pressure system impacting the northwest corner of the
United States, including northern Idaho and western Montana. While
forecast models differ in the movement of this low and placement
of precipitation, they do agree this will be a wet period for the
Northern Rockies region. If the low system stays to the west of
area (over the Pacific Northwest) as currently suggested by the
forecast models, the resultant southerly flow will transport
moist, unstable air from the south and making conditions favorable
for thunderstorm development here in the Northern Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...Low and mid level clouds and scattered showers will
impact aviation operations today and into the nighttime hours.
Mountains and passes will be mostly obscured in clouds with
temporary reductions to visibilities and lower ceilings in
precipitation. All airfields will be impacted. One area that will
see some improvement in conditions will be northwest Montana late
tonight, where ceilings are expected to rise and precipitation
end.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$
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