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000
FXUS65 KMSO 261058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...Arctic cold front bringing much colder temperatures and
potentially heavy snow Friday night into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The band of precipitation that brought light to
moderate snow across north central Idaho and west-central/southwest
Montana overnight will continue to shift northward into northwest
Montana through the day. This will bring a gradual decrease in
precipitation from south to north, with northwest Montana
maintaining precipitation through much of the day. Snow levels
will be on the rise today, so with time valley locations will
largely change over to rain, or a rain snow mix. Valleys of
northwest Montana will remain snow the longest and thus could
continue to accumulate another 1-4 inches through early
afternoon. Travel impacts due to snow and slick roads will
continue, particularly through the morning hours, and thus winter
weather highlights will continue.

Thanksgiving continues to look to be the most mild day of the
week, with fairly warm temperatures for late November. Showers
will continue, especially across northwest Montana.

Beginning on Friday, a more complicated weather scenario will
begin to pan out. An upper level trough and Pacific cold front
will begin to move through the region. A good feed of moisture
will produce widespread precipitation, which could become
moderate to heavy at times. Initially snow levels will start
rather high, above most valley locations. However, mountain passes
look to be affected by accumulating snow during the day. By Friday
night, an arctic cold front will begin to move south out of
Canada, causing snow levels to crash to the valley floors first in
northwest Montana late Friday night, then into the rest of western
Montana and north central Idaho through the day Saturday. The
moisture feed will still be in place as snow levels crash, which
could lead to some significant snowfall amounts in the valleys
Saturday. Exact amounts are very dependent on the timing of cold
air, however widespread travel impacts are possible. In addition
to the snow, roads may also be impacted by a flash freeze of
moisture to the roadways as the cold air surges through the area.
Gusty winds may also develop for a time, causing areas of blowing
snow, lowered visibility and low wind chill values, especially
through tight canyons such as Hellgate (near Missoula) and Badrock
(near Columbia Falls).

Precipitation should largely exit the region by Sunday, however a
much colder airmass will be left in its wake. Single digits to
even below zero temperatures are possible by Sunday morning in
western Montana. Idaho will also see colder temperatures, though not
quite as cold as in Montana. Thankfully, the cold airmass is not
expected to linger for long, and we should see a gradual warm up
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow currently falling at KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM is
expected to change to rain from south to north this morning as
temperatures rise above freezing, with KGPI being the last to let
go of snow showers in the early afternoon. KSMN should hold onto
fog through the morning, and with recent moisture, patchy fog is
not out of the question for other area TAF sites. Model profiles
show the atmosphere drying somewhat during the afternoon, but
remaining moisture will keep chances for rain around for Montana
terminals throughout the day. Winds will be light, below 10kts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST early this morning ABOVE
     4000 FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 261058
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

...Arctic cold front bringing much colder temperatures and
potentially heavy snow Friday night into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The band of precipitation that brought light to
moderate snow across north central Idaho and west-central/southwest
Montana overnight will continue to shift northward into northwest
Montana through the day. This will bring a gradual decrease in
precipitation from south to north, with northwest Montana
maintaining precipitation through much of the day. Snow levels
will be on the rise today, so with time valley locations will
largely change over to rain, or a rain snow mix. Valleys of
northwest Montana will remain snow the longest and thus could
continue to accumulate another 1-4 inches through early
afternoon. Travel impacts due to snow and slick roads will
continue, particularly through the morning hours, and thus winter
weather highlights will continue.

Thanksgiving continues to look to be the most mild day of the
week, with fairly warm temperatures for late November. Showers
will continue, especially across northwest Montana.

Beginning on Friday, a more complicated weather scenario will
begin to pan out. An upper level trough and Pacific cold front
will begin to move through the region. A good feed of moisture
will produce widespread precipitation, which could become
moderate to heavy at times. Initially snow levels will start
rather high, above most valley locations. However, mountain passes
look to be affected by accumulating snow during the day. By Friday
night, an arctic cold front will begin to move south out of
Canada, causing snow levels to crash to the valley floors first in
northwest Montana late Friday night, then into the rest of western
Montana and north central Idaho through the day Saturday. The
moisture feed will still be in place as snow levels crash, which
could lead to some significant snowfall amounts in the valleys
Saturday. Exact amounts are very dependent on the timing of cold
air, however widespread travel impacts are possible. In addition
to the snow, roads may also be impacted by a flash freeze of
moisture to the roadways as the cold air surges through the area.
Gusty winds may also develop for a time, causing areas of blowing
snow, lowered visibility and low wind chill values, especially
through tight canyons such as Hellgate (near Missoula) and Badrock
(near Columbia Falls).

Precipitation should largely exit the region by Sunday, however a
much colder airmass will be left in its wake. Single digits to
even below zero temperatures are possible by Sunday morning in
western Montana. Idaho will also see colder temperatures, though not
quite as cold as in Montana. Thankfully, the cold airmass is not
expected to linger for long, and we should see a gradual warm up
through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Snow currently falling at KMSO, KGPI, and KBTM is
expected to change to rain from south to north this morning as
temperatures rise above freezing, with KGPI being the last to let
go of snow showers in the early afternoon. KSMN should hold onto
fog through the morning, and with recent moisture, patchy fog is
not out of the question for other area TAF sites. Model profiles
show the atmosphere drying somewhat during the afternoon, but
remaining moisture will keep chances for rain around for Montana
terminals throughout the day. Winds will be light, below 10kts.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST this evening West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST early this morning ABOVE
     4000 FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 260449
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
949 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...Extended the Winter Weather Advisory above 4000ft for
central Idaho. Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for western
Lemhi County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite depiction of the precipitation
across west central Montana is starting to show a more scattered
appearance over the Bitterroot Valley. So the steady snowfall
experienced since earlier this afternoon should start to become
more showery in nature, which will also help the snow level to
ever so slowly rise overnight and transition snow back into a
rain/snow mix. It would appear the Missoula Valley is in store for
a few more hours of steady, large flaked snow as the heavier, more
steady area of precipitation slowly drifts north. But by the
middle of the night the snow level should lift and produce a
light rain/snow mix through the dawn hours.

Over central Idaho the advection of warm air has been slower than
previously forecast, largely due to the persistence of
precipitation this evening. With travel impacts anticipated to
persist overnight, even after the snow has ceased, we have
decided to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for central Idaho,
including Lolo Pass. Winter Weather Advisories currently in
effect appear sufficient for the situation, so they shall continue
as previously issued.

The only exception exists in western Lemhi County where rising
snow level and decreasing precipitation intensity over the past
few hours have significantly reduced the potential for weather
related impacts. Thus the Advisory was cancelled early.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest precipitation during
the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST Wednesday ABOVE 4000 FEET
     for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 260449
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
949 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...Extended the Winter Weather Advisory above 4000ft for
central Idaho. Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for western
Lemhi County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite depiction of the precipitation
across west central Montana is starting to show a more scattered
appearance over the Bitterroot Valley. So the steady snowfall
experienced since earlier this afternoon should start to become
more showery in nature, which will also help the snow level to
ever so slowly rise overnight and transition snow back into a
rain/snow mix. It would appear the Missoula Valley is in store for
a few more hours of steady, large flaked snow as the heavier, more
steady area of precipitation slowly drifts north. But by the
middle of the night the snow level should lift and produce a
light rain/snow mix through the dawn hours.

Over central Idaho the advection of warm air has been slower than
previously forecast, largely due to the persistence of
precipitation this evening. With travel impacts anticipated to
persist overnight, even after the snow has ceased, we have
decided to extend the Winter Weather Advisory for central Idaho,
including Lolo Pass. Winter Weather Advisories currently in
effect appear sufficient for the situation, so they shall continue
as previously issued.

The only exception exists in western Lemhi County where rising
snow level and decreasing precipitation intensity over the past
few hours have significantly reduced the potential for weather
related impacts. Thus the Advisory was cancelled early.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest precipitation during
the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 AM PST Wednesday ABOVE 4000 FEET
     for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 252158
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 252158
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 252158
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
257 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north-central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a weak
surface low currently near Walla Walla WA is forecast to drift
eastward along a track just south of the Bitterroot Valley,
effectively drawing colder air currently over far NW Montana as
far south as Missoula and the I-90 corridor. Then, into the
overnight hours, snow levels are expected to rise quickly from
southwest to northeast across central Idaho and western Montana as
warmer air moves in. This all makes for a rather complicated
precipitation-type forecast for the valleys. In general, snow is
expected from around Missoula northward tonight, eventually
switching over to rain by daybreak (Kalispell area could stay as
snow until noon tomorrow). The passes will see snow and dangerous
driving conditions through early Wednesday, with passes under
7000` changing over to a slushy mix.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mostly be limited to
showers across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to
rise above all valley locations by the afternoon. Travel impacts
due to snow should mainly be isolated to the highest passes such
as Lost Trail and perhaps Homestake.

Thanksgiving day looks to be the most mild day of the week with
mainly scattered showers across northwest Montana. Western Montana
and north central Idaho could see a few showers as well but it
should mainly be over higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be in the low to mid 40s.

The models are in fairly good agreement of an arctic moving into
the Northern Rockies Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of the
arctic, a plume of moisture will stream into the region causing
widespread precipitation. The snow levels will be fairly high with
the onset of precipitation so most valley locations will receive
rain, while the higher terrain will receive significant snow. The
arctic is currently advertised as moving into northwest Montana
Friday night causing snow levels to crash to the valley floor. The
interaction of the arctic with the moisture plume could enhance
the snow across this region. Currently, the valleys across
northwest Montana including Flathead and Mission valleys are
expected to receive 2 to 6 inches of snow by Saturday Morning. The
arctic will continue to push across the Northern Rockies on
Saturday with the heaviest snow being along the leading edge of
the front. North central Idaho into west central Montana should
receive 2 to 5 inches of snow during the day on Saturday. The
quick change from rain to snow to very cold temperatures could
create a flash freeze situation and thus very difficult driving
conditions across the region during this holiday weekend. The
easterly winds associated with this arctic could cause significant
winds chill values especially during the day on Saturday.

The system will clear out Saturday night allowing temperatures to
drop into the single digits and below zero for many areas across
western Montana. While Idaho temperatures will primarily be in the
20s and 30s.

The models are indicating a low pressure system lifting into
region from northern California Sunday night into Monday which
should help scour out the arctic air. This system will bring some
scattered showers and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation at KMSO, KBTM and KSMN is expected to
continue through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. KMSO is
currently raining but it it expected to transition into snow
around 25/2300Z and then back to rain early Wednesday. KBTM will
continue to see moderate snow through this afternoon before
becoming lighter tonight. KGPI should see increasing precipitation this
afternoon and overnight with periods of moderate snow. Main
impacts at area terminals will be reduced visibilities, low
ceilings, and mountain obscurations. Rain/snow will be decreasing
throughout the day Wednesday with the heaviest prcepitation during
the morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 251106
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
405 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

...Difficult travel over mountain passes through Wednesday...

...Much colder and snowy by Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The first phase in a rather complicated weather
system is well underway this morning. Fairly widespread
precipitation overnight has brought light snow accumulations to
many valley locations in north central Idaho and western Montana,
especially across northwest Montana. Moderate to even heavy
snowfall has fallen across the mountain passes. Travel this
morning may be slow going.

The bulk of precipitation will briefly shift southward today,
giving northwest Montana a short lived break, or at least
significant decrease in intensity, from snowfall. However,
moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north- central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana through this morning. Meanwhile, snow levels will
be on the increase which makes precipitation type, particularly in
the valley locations, difficult to anticipate. Moderate to heavy
snow will continue generally for elevations above 4000 feet,
including passes such as Lolo, Lookout, Lost Trail, Homestake and
MacDonald Pass. In the valleys, precipitation is expected to
transition from light snow, to a rain/snow mix, to rain by
afternoon. Overall, sloppy conditions should be expected with very
changeable road conditions over short distances.

This evening and tonight, the band of moderate to heavy
precipitation is expected to shift northward towards northwest
Montana. At the same time, forecast models show a lowering of snow
levels, so another period of accumulating snow is expected for
both mountains and valleys across northwest Montana, generally
along and north of the Interstate 90 corridor, including the
Flathead, Mission and Missoula valleys.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mainly be occurring
across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to rise above
most all valley locations and at this point, travel impacts due to
snow should mainly be isolated to mountain passes.

Thanksgiving looks to be a showery day, especially across
northwest Montana. Temperatures will be relatively warm for this
time of year with many valley locations expected to reach the mid
40s. Travel impacts should be fairly low due to continued high
snow levels.

A significant change is expected to begin Friday night in to
Saturday. Forecast models continue to bring an arctic cold front
south out of Canada. This cold front is expected to interact with
a moist flow aloft and could produce some significant travel
impacts due to snow. Initially snow will mainly impact mountain
passes Friday evening, but snow levels will lower to valley
locations Saturday, which could create more widespread travel
impacts. In addition to snow, much colder temperatures are
expected, with low temperatures possibly reaching back down below
zero by Sunday, especially in western Montana. Thankfully,
forecast models continue to show this cold period being relatively
short lived.


&&

.AVIATION...Snow and rain are still in the forecast for all TAF
sites today. Model profiles suggest that KGPI should see a brief
lull in snowfall from late this morning until this evening, when
snow will return in force. KMSO and KBTM are forecast to hold onto
precipitation chances all day, with exact precipitation type being
a tricky call, as we will flirt with the freezing mark. That being
said, better chances for snow occur late this afternoon into the
overnight when temperatures cool. Surface winds will decrease with
time as winds aloft relax, but terrain obscurations and low
ceilings will continue with today`s wave of moisture.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST
     this evening Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower
     Clark Fork Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning for the Camas
     Prairie...Grangeville and Highway 95 in the Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning ABOVE 3500
     FEET for the Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 251106
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
405 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

...Difficult travel over mountain passes through Wednesday...

...Much colder and snowy by Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...The first phase in a rather complicated weather
system is well underway this morning. Fairly widespread
precipitation overnight has brought light snow accumulations to
many valley locations in north central Idaho and western Montana,
especially across northwest Montana. Moderate to even heavy
snowfall has fallen across the mountain passes. Travel this
morning may be slow going.

The bulk of precipitation will briefly shift southward today,
giving northwest Montana a short lived break, or at least
significant decrease in intensity, from snowfall. However,
moderate to heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue and
even intensify across north- central Idaho and southwest/west-
central Montana through this morning. Meanwhile, snow levels will
be on the increase which makes precipitation type, particularly in
the valley locations, difficult to anticipate. Moderate to heavy
snow will continue generally for elevations above 4000 feet,
including passes such as Lolo, Lookout, Lost Trail, Homestake and
MacDonald Pass. In the valleys, precipitation is expected to
transition from light snow, to a rain/snow mix, to rain by
afternoon. Overall, sloppy conditions should be expected with very
changeable road conditions over short distances.

This evening and tonight, the band of moderate to heavy
precipitation is expected to shift northward towards northwest
Montana. At the same time, forecast models show a lowering of snow
levels, so another period of accumulating snow is expected for
both mountains and valleys across northwest Montana, generally
along and north of the Interstate 90 corridor, including the
Flathead, Mission and Missoula valleys.

By mid-day Wednesday, precipitation will mainly be occurring
across northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to rise above
most all valley locations and at this point, travel impacts due to
snow should mainly be isolated to mountain passes.

Thanksgiving looks to be a showery day, especially across
northwest Montana. Temperatures will be relatively warm for this
time of year with many valley locations expected to reach the mid
40s. Travel impacts should be fairly low due to continued high
snow levels.

A significant change is expected to begin Friday night in to
Saturday. Forecast models continue to bring an arctic cold front
south out of Canada. This cold front is expected to interact with
a moist flow aloft and could produce some significant travel
impacts due to snow. Initially snow will mainly impact mountain
passes Friday evening, but snow levels will lower to valley
locations Saturday, which could create more widespread travel
impacts. In addition to snow, much colder temperatures are
expected, with low temperatures possibly reaching back down below
zero by Sunday, especially in western Montana. Thankfully,
forecast models continue to show this cold period being relatively
short lived.


&&

.AVIATION...Snow and rain are still in the forecast for all TAF
sites today. Model profiles suggest that KGPI should see a brief
lull in snowfall from late this morning until this evening, when
snow will return in force. KMSO and KBTM are forecast to hold onto
precipitation chances all day, with exact precipitation type being
a tricky call, as we will flirt with the freezing mark. That being
said, better chances for snow occur late this afternoon into the
overnight when temperatures cool. Surface winds will decrease with
time as winds aloft relax, but terrain obscurations and low
ceilings will continue with today`s wave of moisture.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST
     this evening Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM MST Wednesday
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower
     Clark Fork Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday West Glacier
     Region.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 AM MST Wednesday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening for Lost
     Trail Pass in the Eastern Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
     FEET for the Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning for the Camas
     Prairie...Grangeville and Highway 95 in the Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening ABOVE 5000
     FEET for the Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning ABOVE 3500
     FEET for the Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...
     Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 242238
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...Difficult travel over passes through mid week due to heavy snow
at times...
...Another arctic arrives by the weekend...

.DISCUSSION...

A complicated weather setup will develop over the next few days
over the Northern Rockies, with a wide range of possible impacts
for western Montana. A strong jet aloft will push into the area,
bringing a tap of Pacific moisture along with it. Meanwhile,
warmer air will gradually move up from the southwest across
central Idaho and eventually through western Montana, raising snow
levels and changing valley snow over to rain. In addition, gusty
winds can be expected at times, especially over the Camas Prairie
of Idaho. With all the different impacts at different locations,
we`ve broken it up by region for the next few days.

- Central Idaho

Expect gusty winds in the Grangeville vicinity of 25 to 35 mph
with gusts to 50 mph possible tonight. Precipitation will spread
over the area north to south tonight, with several inches of snow
down to around 4000` in the Clearwater Mtns and western Lemhi
County. Significant snow of 10 inches or more is possible for
higher elevations, including Lolo Pass. Snow levels will then
rise rapidly to 6000` and higher by tomorrow afternoon. The Salmon
Valley including Salmon may see a few inches of snow.

- Southwest & Western Montana

Precipitation will develop over the area tonight. The lower
valleys will see a rain-snow mix, but no significant accumulations
expected. Tomorrow may see a little more rain-snow mix in the
Bitterroot Valley in the evening, eventually transitioning to all
rain overnight. Forecast confidence is fairly low however, and
accumulating snow is not out of the question for the entire area.
For higher-elevation valleys and the mountains, several inches
will fall tonight, with the heavier snow arriving Tuesday night.

- Northwest Montana

Several inches of snow are expected tonight and early tomorrow,
followed by more tomorrow night. The valleys should see mostly
snow tonight, followed by a more complicated mix later tomorrow.
There is a chance for significant accumulating snow down to the
valley floors late tomorrow, before changing to rain by Wednesday.

- Glacier NP & Continental Divide

Heavy snow is expected at times through Wednesday, leading to
difficult travel conditions over Marias Pass.



Thanksgiving day could possibly be the nicest day of the week
with mainly scattered showers over the region. Temperatures will
also be fairly mild with highs in the low 40s for western Montana
and mid to upper 40s for north central Idaho.

The models are starting to indicate a potential arctic feature
moving through the Northern Rockies Friday night through Saturday.
Ahead of the arctic front, a very moist feed will stream into the
Northern Rockies, potentially leading to heavy precipitation.
Snow levels will be fairly high during the onset of the
precipitation, so snow will be mainly confined to the higher
terrain. Mountain passes along the Montana/Idaho border could
receive heavy snow on Friday night. Then late Friday night into
Saturday an arctic cold front will slide into western Montana.
This arctic front looks to interact with the moisture feed,
causing an enhancement of snow down to valley floors on Saturday.
Northwest Montana has the best potential of receiving significant
snow during the day with these two features. The snow across the
region is anticipated to cause hazardous driving conditions during
this holiday weekend.

The coldest morning should be Sunday morning as temperatures drop
into the single digits for many locations across western Montana.
While maximum temperatures on Sunday across western Montana will
be running about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
North central Idaho high temperatures on Sunday appear to be in
the 30s and 40s.

This arctic does not appear to be as cold and prolonged as the one
that occurred earlier this month. The models are indicating that
the cold air will scour out by Monday as a system undercuts the
Northern Rockies by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...A moist weather system will move in from the northwest
this evening and will bring snow to area terminals. KGPI, KMSO
and KBTM should see light snow with periods of moderate snow
tonight through Tuesday. KSMN could also see light amounts of
snow. Main impacts will be low ceilings, mountain obscurations,
and periods of reduced visibility. Snow levels are expected to
rise slightly throughout the day Tuesday and KMSO should see snow
transition to rain.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH from 10 PM MST this evening through Tuesday
     evening Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from 8 PM MST this evening through Wednesday
     morning West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 242238
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...Difficult travel over passes through mid week due to heavy snow
at times...
...Another arctic arrives by the weekend...

.DISCUSSION...

A complicated weather setup will develop over the next few days
over the Northern Rockies, with a wide range of possible impacts
for western Montana. A strong jet aloft will push into the area,
bringing a tap of Pacific moisture along with it. Meanwhile,
warmer air will gradually move up from the southwest across
central Idaho and eventually through western Montana, raising snow
levels and changing valley snow over to rain. In addition, gusty
winds can be expected at times, especially over the Camas Prairie
of Idaho. With all the different impacts at different locations,
we`ve broken it up by region for the next few days.

- Central Idaho

Expect gusty winds in the Grangeville vicinity of 25 to 35 mph
with gusts to 50 mph possible tonight. Precipitation will spread
over the area north to south tonight, with several inches of snow
down to around 4000` in the Clearwater Mtns and western Lemhi
County. Significant snow of 10 inches or more is possible for
higher elevations, including Lolo Pass. Snow levels will then
rise rapidly to 6000` and higher by tomorrow afternoon. The Salmon
Valley including Salmon may see a few inches of snow.

- Southwest & Western Montana

Precipitation will develop over the area tonight. The lower
valleys will see a rain-snow mix, but no significant accumulations
expected. Tomorrow may see a little more rain-snow mix in the
Bitterroot Valley in the evening, eventually transitioning to all
rain overnight. Forecast confidence is fairly low however, and
accumulating snow is not out of the question for the entire area.
For higher-elevation valleys and the mountains, several inches
will fall tonight, with the heavier snow arriving Tuesday night.

- Northwest Montana

Several inches of snow are expected tonight and early tomorrow,
followed by more tomorrow night. The valleys should see mostly
snow tonight, followed by a more complicated mix later tomorrow.
There is a chance for significant accumulating snow down to the
valley floors late tomorrow, before changing to rain by Wednesday.

- Glacier NP & Continental Divide

Heavy snow is expected at times through Wednesday, leading to
difficult travel conditions over Marias Pass.



Thanksgiving day could possibly be the nicest day of the week
with mainly scattered showers over the region. Temperatures will
also be fairly mild with highs in the low 40s for western Montana
and mid to upper 40s for north central Idaho.

The models are starting to indicate a potential arctic feature
moving through the Northern Rockies Friday night through Saturday.
Ahead of the arctic front, a very moist feed will stream into the
Northern Rockies, potentially leading to heavy precipitation.
Snow levels will be fairly high during the onset of the
precipitation, so snow will be mainly confined to the higher
terrain. Mountain passes along the Montana/Idaho border could
receive heavy snow on Friday night. Then late Friday night into
Saturday an arctic cold front will slide into western Montana.
This arctic front looks to interact with the moisture feed,
causing an enhancement of snow down to valley floors on Saturday.
Northwest Montana has the best potential of receiving significant
snow during the day with these two features. The snow across the
region is anticipated to cause hazardous driving conditions during
this holiday weekend.

The coldest morning should be Sunday morning as temperatures drop
into the single digits for many locations across western Montana.
While maximum temperatures on Sunday across western Montana will
be running about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.
North central Idaho high temperatures on Sunday appear to be in
the 30s and 40s.

This arctic does not appear to be as cold and prolonged as the one
that occurred earlier this month. The models are indicating that
the cold air will scour out by Monday as a system undercuts the
Northern Rockies by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...A moist weather system will move in from the northwest
this evening and will bring snow to area terminals. KGPI, KMSO
and KBTM should see light snow with periods of moderate snow
tonight through Tuesday. KSMN could also see light amounts of
snow. Main impacts will be low ceilings, mountain obscurations,
and periods of reduced visibility. Snow levels are expected to
rise slightly throughout the day Tuesday and KMSO should see snow
transition to rain.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH from 10 PM MST this evening through Tuesday
     evening Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from 8 PM MST this evening through Wednesday
     morning West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 241100
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
400 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...Icy roads for this morning`s commute...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Snow showers will be on the decline this morning as
a brief break between weather systems brings drier air into the
region. However, temperatures have cooled to below freezing for
most areas, which has allowed moisture on roadways to freeze. A
very slick morning commute is anticipated. Bridges, untreated
roads/secondary roads, sidewalks and parking lots will be
especially slick. Winter weather advisories remain in place.

A very moist and somewhat mild weather system will quickly arrive
to the northern Rockies tonight. This system has an impressive
moisture feed associated with it, which will lead to a potential
prolonged heavy snow event (tonight through Wednesday) for the
higher terrain, especially across northwest Montana. Initially,
snow levels will start low enough to bring snowfall to most valley
locations. However, as a warm front moves through the region
Tuesday into Wednesday, snow levels will be on the increase. The
timing of this warm air is critical in determining how much snow
will fall in the valley locations. Currently, the valleys of
northwest Montana are most likely to experience moderate snow
accumulations (mainly during the tonight through Tuesday night
period) as warm air will be the slowest making it this far north.
Travel impacts are expected during this period, especially on
mountain passes. Snow could become quite heavy at times causing
low visibility and quickly changing road conditions. It does look
like snow levels will largely rise above most mountain passes by
late Wednesday.

Precipitation will largely taper off on Thursday; however,
lingering showers are anticipated across northwest Montana.

Confidence is growing for a push of much colder air and another
round of potentially impactful snow this weekend. Forecast models
seem to be zeroing in on the Friday into Saturday time frame for
this next event to take place. Gusty winds, much colder
temperatures and both mountain and valley snows are possible, so
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering light snow showers are expected to taper off
for KBTM and KSMN this morning. Despite the atmosphere drying out
during the daylight hours, mid-level cloud cover and terrain
obscurations should remain. The next potent low pressure system
moves in around 25/0600Z with widespread accumulating
precipitation and lowering ceilings. The current forecast has snow
accumulations for KGPI and KMSO before snow turns to rain.
Surface winds of 5 to 10 kts will accompany this system, with KBTM
seeing gusts to 15 kts.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through Wednesday morning
     West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through Tuesday evening
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning Northern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 241100
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
400 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...Icy roads for this morning`s commute...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Snow showers will be on the decline this morning as
a brief break between weather systems brings drier air into the
region. However, temperatures have cooled to below freezing for
most areas, which has allowed moisture on roadways to freeze. A
very slick morning commute is anticipated. Bridges, untreated
roads/secondary roads, sidewalks and parking lots will be
especially slick. Winter weather advisories remain in place.

A very moist and somewhat mild weather system will quickly arrive
to the northern Rockies tonight. This system has an impressive
moisture feed associated with it, which will lead to a potential
prolonged heavy snow event (tonight through Wednesday) for the
higher terrain, especially across northwest Montana. Initially,
snow levels will start low enough to bring snowfall to most valley
locations. However, as a warm front moves through the region
Tuesday into Wednesday, snow levels will be on the increase. The
timing of this warm air is critical in determining how much snow
will fall in the valley locations. Currently, the valleys of
northwest Montana are most likely to experience moderate snow
accumulations (mainly during the tonight through Tuesday night
period) as warm air will be the slowest making it this far north.
Travel impacts are expected during this period, especially on
mountain passes. Snow could become quite heavy at times causing
low visibility and quickly changing road conditions. It does look
like snow levels will largely rise above most mountain passes by
late Wednesday.

Precipitation will largely taper off on Thursday; however,
lingering showers are anticipated across northwest Montana.

Confidence is growing for a push of much colder air and another
round of potentially impactful snow this weekend. Forecast models
seem to be zeroing in on the Friday into Saturday time frame for
this next event to take place. Gusty winds, much colder
temperatures and both mountain and valley snows are possible, so
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering light snow showers are expected to taper off
for KBTM and KSMN this morning. Despite the atmosphere drying out
during the daylight hours, mid-level cloud cover and terrain
obscurations should remain. The next potent low pressure system
moves in around 25/0600Z with widespread accumulating
precipitation and lowering ceilings. The current forecast has snow
accumulations for KGPI and KMSO before snow turns to rain.
Surface winds of 5 to 10 kts will accompany this system, with KBTM
seeing gusts to 15 kts.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through Wednesday morning
     West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through Tuesday evening
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning Northern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 232155
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...Light snow accumulations through much of north central Idaho
and western Montana through Monday morning...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Snow is beginning to expand throughout northern Idaho and
northwest Montana this afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches
the region. There is a high chance for most people to have light
snow accumulations by Monday morning as the trough continues to
trek through north central Idaho and western Montana. Widespread
slick roadways are possible overnight so winter weather advisories
are in effect.

POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW:

A brief break in snow is possible Monday afternoon before the
next, potentially heavy snow producing, weather system arrives.
The next weather system is going to have a lot of moisture and
there is moderate to high confidence of the storm to develop but
snow levels are in question with much lower confidence. This
weather system will be warm front dominated so snow levels will
rise. The questions are, how quickly this transition will occur,
and will valley locations be able to see snow accumulations before
the rise? As of now there is fair agreement that precipitation
will start as snow Monday night and transition to rain at lower
elevations through Tuesday. High snow levels, above many mountain
passes, are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. The valleys of
northwest Montana are of particular focus since snow levels will
be slower to rise leaving a higher chance for snow accumulations.
At this time only moderate snow accumulations are being forecast
in the northwest Montana valleys, but heavy snow is forecast for
high elevations. Travel impacts are becoming likely due to snow
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Precipitation may linger in northwest Montana into Thursday but
timing issues leave this uncertain.

There are indications that the moist flow will return for the
weekend as colder air moves in from the east. Snow will again be
possible through the weekend but confidence is low due to high
changeability in the extended model guidance.


&&

.AVIATION...Widespread snow will develop this evening with
localized snow bands forecast for the overnight. Low ceilings and
reduced visibilities can be expected throughout north central
Idaho and western Montana including all TAF sites through much of
tonight. Widespread light accumulations are expected through
Monday morning. Snow coverage will decrease early Monday morning
with lowest chances anticipated through the afternoon. Ceilings
improvements are also expected by Monday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Lower Clark Fork
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Northern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 232155
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...Light snow accumulations through much of north central Idaho
and western Montana through Monday morning...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Snow is beginning to expand throughout northern Idaho and
northwest Montana this afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches
the region. There is a high chance for most people to have light
snow accumulations by Monday morning as the trough continues to
trek through north central Idaho and western Montana. Widespread
slick roadways are possible overnight so winter weather advisories
are in effect.

POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW:

A brief break in snow is possible Monday afternoon before the
next, potentially heavy snow producing, weather system arrives.
The next weather system is going to have a lot of moisture and
there is moderate to high confidence of the storm to develop but
snow levels are in question with much lower confidence. This
weather system will be warm front dominated so snow levels will
rise. The questions are, how quickly this transition will occur,
and will valley locations be able to see snow accumulations before
the rise? As of now there is fair agreement that precipitation
will start as snow Monday night and transition to rain at lower
elevations through Tuesday. High snow levels, above many mountain
passes, are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. The valleys of
northwest Montana are of particular focus since snow levels will
be slower to rise leaving a higher chance for snow accumulations.
At this time only moderate snow accumulations are being forecast
in the northwest Montana valleys, but heavy snow is forecast for
high elevations. Travel impacts are becoming likely due to snow
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Precipitation may linger in northwest Montana into Thursday but
timing issues leave this uncertain.

There are indications that the moist flow will return for the
weekend as colder air moves in from the east. Snow will again be
possible through the weekend but confidence is low due to high
changeability in the extended model guidance.


&&

.AVIATION...Widespread snow will develop this evening with
localized snow bands forecast for the overnight. Low ceilings and
reduced visibilities can be expected throughout north central
Idaho and western Montana including all TAF sites through much of
tonight. Widespread light accumulations are expected through
Monday morning. Snow coverage will decrease early Monday morning
with lowest chances anticipated through the afternoon. Ceilings
improvements are also expected by Monday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Lower Clark Fork
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Northern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 232155
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...Light snow accumulations through much of north central Idaho
and western Montana through Monday morning...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Snow is beginning to expand throughout northern Idaho and
northwest Montana this afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches
the region. There is a high chance for most people to have light
snow accumulations by Monday morning as the trough continues to
trek through north central Idaho and western Montana. Widespread
slick roadways are possible overnight so winter weather advisories
are in effect.

POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW:

A brief break in snow is possible Monday afternoon before the
next, potentially heavy snow producing, weather system arrives.
The next weather system is going to have a lot of moisture and
there is moderate to high confidence of the storm to develop but
snow levels are in question with much lower confidence. This
weather system will be warm front dominated so snow levels will
rise. The questions are, how quickly this transition will occur,
and will valley locations be able to see snow accumulations before
the rise? As of now there is fair agreement that precipitation
will start as snow Monday night and transition to rain at lower
elevations through Tuesday. High snow levels, above many mountain
passes, are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. The valleys of
northwest Montana are of particular focus since snow levels will
be slower to rise leaving a higher chance for snow accumulations.
At this time only moderate snow accumulations are being forecast
in the northwest Montana valleys, but heavy snow is forecast for
high elevations. Travel impacts are becoming likely due to snow
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Precipitation may linger in northwest Montana into Thursday but
timing issues leave this uncertain.

There are indications that the moist flow will return for the
weekend as colder air moves in from the east. Snow will again be
possible through the weekend but confidence is low due to high
changeability in the extended model guidance.


&&

.AVIATION...Widespread snow will develop this evening with
localized snow bands forecast for the overnight. Low ceilings and
reduced visibilities can be expected throughout north central
Idaho and western Montana including all TAF sites through much of
tonight. Widespread light accumulations are expected through
Monday morning. Snow coverage will decrease early Monday morning
with lowest chances anticipated through the afternoon. Ceilings
improvements are also expected by Monday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Lower Clark Fork
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Northern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 232155
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
253 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...Light snow accumulations through much of north central Idaho
and western Montana through Monday morning...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Snow is beginning to expand throughout northern Idaho and
northwest Montana this afternoon as a shortwave trough approaches
the region. There is a high chance for most people to have light
snow accumulations by Monday morning as the trough continues to
trek through north central Idaho and western Montana. Widespread
slick roadways are possible overnight so winter weather advisories
are in effect.

POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW:

A brief break in snow is possible Monday afternoon before the
next, potentially heavy snow producing, weather system arrives.
The next weather system is going to have a lot of moisture and
there is moderate to high confidence of the storm to develop but
snow levels are in question with much lower confidence. This
weather system will be warm front dominated so snow levels will
rise. The questions are, how quickly this transition will occur,
and will valley locations be able to see snow accumulations before
the rise? As of now there is fair agreement that precipitation
will start as snow Monday night and transition to rain at lower
elevations through Tuesday. High snow levels, above many mountain
passes, are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. The valleys of
northwest Montana are of particular focus since snow levels will
be slower to rise leaving a higher chance for snow accumulations.
At this time only moderate snow accumulations are being forecast
in the northwest Montana valleys, but heavy snow is forecast for
high elevations. Travel impacts are becoming likely due to snow
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Precipitation may linger in northwest Montana into Thursday but
timing issues leave this uncertain.

There are indications that the moist flow will return for the
weekend as colder air moves in from the east. Snow will again be
possible through the weekend but confidence is low due to high
changeability in the extended model guidance.


&&

.AVIATION...Widespread snow will develop this evening with
localized snow bands forecast for the overnight. Low ceilings and
reduced visibilities can be expected throughout north central
Idaho and western Montana including all TAF sites through much of
tonight. Widespread light accumulations are expected through
Monday morning. Snow coverage will decrease early Monday morning
with lowest chances anticipated through the afternoon. Ceilings
improvements are also expected by Monday afternoon.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Lower Clark Fork
     Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Flathead/Mission
     Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST Monday Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
     West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
     Monday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST Monday Northern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$





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