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000
FXUS65 KMSO 290950
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
350 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has briefly rebuilt over western
Montana and north central Idaho this morning, bringing an end to
showers and for the most part cloud cover. This will be short
lived however as southwest flow sets up this afternoon ahead of an
approaching upper level trough and associated cold front. The
main impact this afternoon and evening will be an increase in
southwest to west winds. Temperatures will be quite warm, likely
the warmest so far this week in many locations.

The cold front and upper level trough will swing through the
region tonight into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the cold front this evening and
tonight, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest Montana.
The biggest impact as the cold front passes Saturday will be
breezy conditions which will develop in the morning and likely
last through much of the day. Outdoor recreation could be
affected, especially for boaters on area lakes which could become
quite choppy. Another noticeable change will be a drop in
temperatures by as much as 20 degrees, lasting through the
weekend. Showery and cool will be the theme through Monday.

On Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure is expected to rebound
from the south slightly, placing the region in a westerly flow
aloft. This will allow for warmer temperatures, returning closer
to seasonal normals, and reducing shower chances.

Forecast models continue to show another lobe of the upper level
trough digging into the region Wednesday through the end of the
work week. This could lead to another period of cool, breezy
conditions, and possibly even some precipitation. Stay tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...A re-bounding ridge of high pressure this morning
should bring generally pleasant flying conditions this morning,
with only a few mid and high level clouds across the region.
Southwest flow will increase over western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon, resulting in some breezy southwest
to west winds, especially near ridge top levels. A cold front
passage tonight into Saturday morning will keep breezy conditions
into Saturday. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
ahead of and with the cold front passage, mainly across north
central Idaho into southwest Montana this evening and overnight.
Airfields KSMN and KBTM have the best potential for thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 290950
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
350 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has briefly rebuilt over western
Montana and north central Idaho this morning, bringing an end to
showers and for the most part cloud cover. This will be short
lived however as southwest flow sets up this afternoon ahead of an
approaching upper level trough and associated cold front. The
main impact this afternoon and evening will be an increase in
southwest to west winds. Temperatures will be quite warm, likely
the warmest so far this week in many locations.

The cold front and upper level trough will swing through the
region tonight into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the cold front this evening and
tonight, mainly across north central Idaho into southwest Montana.
The biggest impact as the cold front passes Saturday will be
breezy conditions which will develop in the morning and likely
last through much of the day. Outdoor recreation could be
affected, especially for boaters on area lakes which could become
quite choppy. Another noticeable change will be a drop in
temperatures by as much as 20 degrees, lasting through the
weekend. Showery and cool will be the theme through Monday.

On Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure is expected to rebound
from the south slightly, placing the region in a westerly flow
aloft. This will allow for warmer temperatures, returning closer
to seasonal normals, and reducing shower chances.

Forecast models continue to show another lobe of the upper level
trough digging into the region Wednesday through the end of the
work week. This could lead to another period of cool, breezy
conditions, and possibly even some precipitation. Stay tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...A re-bounding ridge of high pressure this morning
should bring generally pleasant flying conditions this morning,
with only a few mid and high level clouds across the region.
Southwest flow will increase over western Montana and north
central Idaho this afternoon, resulting in some breezy southwest
to west winds, especially near ridge top levels. A cold front
passage tonight into Saturday morning will keep breezy conditions
into Saturday. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
ahead of and with the cold front passage, mainly across north
central Idaho into southwest Montana this evening and overnight.
Airfields KSMN and KBTM have the best potential for thunderstorms.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 282105
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
305 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING WEATHER FEATURE NORTH OF THE BORDER HAS
PRODUCE SOME IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION OVER SE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SW
ALBERTA. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM MAY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THESE WILL RESULT IN LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT QUICKLY TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONGER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO DESTABILIZE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW MONTANA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BUT THIS WILL ONLY
MARK THE BEGINNING OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A PERSISTENTLY BREEZY DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MONTANA AND PERHAPS PARTS OF CENTRAL IDAHO.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING STRONGER, MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS THE OPPORTUNITY
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND LIKELY FEEL QUITE COOL CONSIDERING THE BREEZY,
SHOWERY ATMOSPHERE. BUT SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW SIGNS OF SUBSIDING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND PRODUCE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR MONDAY WITH GFS BEING
MUCH WETTER. SO HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
BECAUSE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN RECOGNITION AND ANECDOTALLY
IT SEEMS LIKE THESE TROUGHS HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD: THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A DECENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON SPECIFIC DETAILS, BUT ONE ATTRIBUTE TO THIS SYSTEM IS
THAT IT MAY DIG FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE MORE TRANSIENT,
EAST/WEST ORIENTED SYSTEM OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION,
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PASSING ALONG THE
CANADA/MONTANA BORDER THIS MORNING OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
REGION IS MOSTLY CLOUD FREE TO START THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY, SO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL FLATTEN AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE GLACIER PARK
REGION AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVERNIGHT SO CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

IV/NOBLE





000
FXUS65 KMSO 280934
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
334 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...Breezy and cool Holiday weekend...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the region will begin to flatten
today which will result in increased wind late this afternoon and
evening. A shortwave approaching Idaho and western Montana is
responsible for flattening of the ridge and will pass this
evening. Showers are possible in the Glacier Region and along the
Continental Divide while the shortwave passes. The ridge will re-
amplify behind the trough on Friday, so above normal temperatures
will remain.

The next trough is still on track to move into the region
beginning Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
late Friday night and Saturday morning and a cold front passage
will bring cooler air and breezy conditions for Saturday. At this
time model guidance point to cooler temperatures and increased
wind to be the main impacting weather Saturday through Sunday.

Cooler air in place on Monday morning will lead to the potential
for frost, but there appears to be enough cloud cover to keep the
frost threat lowered.

Weak high pressure should return for the beginning of the week so
temperatures will warm and precipitation chances are forecast to
be low. Extended model guidance do show another trough for the
second half of the week so temperatures will trend cooler and
precipitation chances higher.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are passing along the
Canada/Montana border this morning otherwise the rest of the
region is mostly cloud free to start this morning. There is a
shortwave approaching from the west today, so high pressure over
the region will flatten and winds will increase. There will also
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the Glacier Park
Region and along the Continental Divide as the shortwave passes
this evening. High pressure will rebuild overnight so cloud cover
and showers will decrease.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 280934
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
334 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...Breezy and cool Holiday weekend...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the region will begin to flatten
today which will result in increased wind late this afternoon and
evening. A shortwave approaching Idaho and western Montana is
responsible for flattening of the ridge and will pass this
evening. Showers are possible in the Glacier Region and along the
Continental Divide while the shortwave passes. The ridge will re-
amplify behind the trough on Friday, so above normal temperatures
will remain.

The next trough is still on track to move into the region
beginning Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
late Friday night and Saturday morning and a cold front passage
will bring cooler air and breezy conditions for Saturday. At this
time model guidance point to cooler temperatures and increased
wind to be the main impacting weather Saturday through Sunday.

Cooler air in place on Monday morning will lead to the potential
for frost, but there appears to be enough cloud cover to keep the
frost threat lowered.

Weak high pressure should return for the beginning of the week so
temperatures will warm and precipitation chances are forecast to
be low. Extended model guidance do show another trough for the
second half of the week so temperatures will trend cooler and
precipitation chances higher.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are passing along the
Canada/Montana border this morning otherwise the rest of the
region is mostly cloud free to start this morning. There is a
shortwave approaching from the west today, so high pressure over
the region will flatten and winds will increase. There will also
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the Glacier Park
Region and along the Continental Divide as the shortwave passes
this evening. High pressure will rebuild overnight so cloud cover
and showers will decrease.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 280416
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1015 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...There is a slight chance for a shower or two north of
the Montana border overnight, otherwise the forecast has not been
changed.


&&

.AVIATION...Conditions through the next 24 hours will remain
largely VFR at all airfields. Breezy afternoon winds are likely at
KBTM and KMSO, but will quickly subside near sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

..Windy conditions late Friday and Saturday...

DISCUSSION...A flat ridge of high pressure will remain in place
across the Northern Rockies Region which will promote near normal
temperatures with negligable chances for precipitation through
Thursday. Thursday evening a weak disturbance in the flow will
bring an increased chance for some light precipitation to the area
and a chance for some thunderstorms across southwest Montana.
Conditions appear to briefly dry out on Friday and turn warmer in
advance of a strong surface cold front. There will probably be
some scattered showers around during the afternoon, but to minimal
impact.

The biggest change to the forecast was for this weekend. Previous
models suggested another cold, wet and windy weather system. And
although the windy and unseasonably cold elements of the forecast
remain, things have changed significantly with regards to chances
for precipitation. It would appear that the vast majority of
moisture that the models were previously moving into the region
this weekend were attributed to Tropical Storm Marie. However all
the models and almost all the ensemble members move the remnant
moisture west out into the central Pacific and no longer inland
with the approaching cold, upper level trough. So we have
significantly reduced chances for precipitation this weekend,
painting more of a showery forecast as opposed to a very wet
weekend. But in exchange the drier trough will support more wind
and subsequent impacts to boaters and those recreating around
western Montana and central Idaho. The wind will increase
throughout Saturday, likely peaking late in the afternoon with the
cold frontal passage. Cooler conditions are also to be expected,
with both high and low temperatures across the region well below
normal Sunday and especially Monday morning. In fact, frost could
again be an issue Monday morning depending upon cloud cover and
near surface wind.

The weather for the rest of next week appears to be controlled by
a large scale trough. The forecast overall appears to be largely
void of precipitation from Monday will late Wednesday. Thereafter
models are showing the possibility of another weak, Canadian
system that could clip the region.

AVIATION...Conditions through the next 24 hours will remain
largely VFR at all airfields. Breezy afternoon winds are likely at
KBTM and KMSO, but will quickly subside near sunset.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 272108
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
308 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...Windy conditions late Friday and Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...A flat ridge of high pressure will remain in place
across the Northern Rockies Region which will promote near normal
temperatures with negligable chances for precipitation through
Thursday. Thursday evening a weak disturbance in the flow will
bring an increased chance for some light precipitation to the area
and a chance for some thunderstorms across southwest Montana.
Conditions appear to briefly dry out on Friday and turn warmer in
advance of a strong surface cold front. There will probably be
some scattered showers around during the afternoon, but to minimal
impact.

The biggest change to the forecast was for this weekend. Previous
models suggested another cold, wet and windy weather system. And
although the windy and unseasonably cold elements of the forecast
remain, things have changed significantly with regards to chances
for precipitation. It would appear that the vast majority of
moisture that the models were previously moving into the region
this weekend were attributed to Tropical Storm Marie. However all
the models and almost all the ensemble members move the remnant
moisture west out into the central Pacific and no longer inland
with the approaching cold, upper level trough. So we have
significantly reduced chances for precipitation this weekend,
painting more of a showery forecast as opposed to a very wet
weekend. But in exchange the drier trough will support more wind
and subsequent impacts to boaters and those recreating around
western Montana and central Idaho. The wind will increase
throughout Saturday, likely peaking late in the afternoon with the
cold frontal passage. Cooler conditions are also to be expected,
with both high and low temperatures across the region well below
normal Sunday and especially Monday morning. In fact, frost could
again be an issue Monday morning depending upon cloud cover and
near surface wind.

The weather for the rest of next week appears to be controlled by
a large scale trough. The forecast overall appears to be largely
void of precipitation from Monday will late Wednesday. Thereafter
models are showing the possibility of another weak, Canadian
system that could clip the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions through the next 24 hours will remain
largely VFR at all airfields. Breezy afternoon winds are likely at
KBTM and KMSO, but will quickly subside near sunset.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 272108
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
308 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...Windy conditions late Friday and Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...A flat ridge of high pressure will remain in place
across the Northern Rockies Region which will promote near normal
temperatures with negligable chances for precipitation through
Thursday. Thursday evening a weak disturbance in the flow will
bring an increased chance for some light precipitation to the area
and a chance for some thunderstorms across southwest Montana.
Conditions appear to briefly dry out on Friday and turn warmer in
advance of a strong surface cold front. There will probably be
some scattered showers around during the afternoon, but to minimal
impact.

The biggest change to the forecast was for this weekend. Previous
models suggested another cold, wet and windy weather system. And
although the windy and unseasonably cold elements of the forecast
remain, things have changed significantly with regards to chances
for precipitation. It would appear that the vast majority of
moisture that the models were previously moving into the region
this weekend were attributed to Tropical Storm Marie. However all
the models and almost all the ensemble members move the remnant
moisture west out into the central Pacific and no longer inland
with the approaching cold, upper level trough. So we have
significantly reduced chances for precipitation this weekend,
painting more of a showery forecast as opposed to a very wet
weekend. But in exchange the drier trough will support more wind
and subsequent impacts to boaters and those recreating around
western Montana and central Idaho. The wind will increase
throughout Saturday, likely peaking late in the afternoon with the
cold frontal passage. Cooler conditions are also to be expected,
with both high and low temperatures across the region well below
normal Sunday and especially Monday morning. In fact, frost could
again be an issue Monday morning depending upon cloud cover and
near surface wind.

The weather for the rest of next week appears to be controlled by
a large scale trough. The forecast overall appears to be largely
void of precipitation from Monday will late Wednesday. Thereafter
models are showing the possibility of another weak, Canadian
system that could clip the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions through the next 24 hours will remain
largely VFR at all airfields. Breezy afternoon winds are likely at
KBTM and KMSO, but will quickly subside near sunset.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270935
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
335 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...Little has changed with the short-term forecast with
high pressure likely to remain over Idaho and western Montana
through Thursday. Near to just above normal temperatures will also
remain through the end of the week.

There is a chance for showers late Thursday and Friday as model
guidance are converging on the idea of a shortwave passage. The
shortwave will also bring increased wind on Thursday evening and
Friday afternoon. Friday may be the warmest day that Idaho and
western Montana may have for some time as model guidance agree
for a more fall like pattern to arrive this weekend.

A cold frontal passage on Saturday will bring breezy winds,
temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than Friday, and an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. The main trough
with the upcoming weather system will remain over the region
through Sunday and early next week so cool temperatures and
showery conditions remain in the forecast. Snow levels are also
going to lower on Sunday morning enough so to bring a threat for
high elevation snow.

Timing differences for an additional weather system are evident
next week, but confidence is fairly high for a trough type pattern
to dominate the extended forecast period. This type of pattern
will bring below normal temperatures and an increased threat for
frost.


&&

.AVIATION...

Model guidance continue to show high pressure over Idaho and
western Montana through Thursday. The weather pattern will promote
mostly clear skies and generally light winds today. A weak
weather system on Thursday will bring increased cloud cover and
winds during the evening.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270935
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
335 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...Little has changed with the short-term forecast with
high pressure likely to remain over Idaho and western Montana
through Thursday. Near to just above normal temperatures will also
remain through the end of the week.

There is a chance for showers late Thursday and Friday as model
guidance are converging on the idea of a shortwave passage. The
shortwave will also bring increased wind on Thursday evening and
Friday afternoon. Friday may be the warmest day that Idaho and
western Montana may have for some time as model guidance agree
for a more fall like pattern to arrive this weekend.

A cold frontal passage on Saturday will bring breezy winds,
temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than Friday, and an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. The main trough
with the upcoming weather system will remain over the region
through Sunday and early next week so cool temperatures and
showery conditions remain in the forecast. Snow levels are also
going to lower on Sunday morning enough so to bring a threat for
high elevation snow.

Timing differences for an additional weather system are evident
next week, but confidence is fairly high for a trough type pattern
to dominate the extended forecast period. This type of pattern
will bring below normal temperatures and an increased threat for
frost.


&&

.AVIATION...

Model guidance continue to show high pressure over Idaho and
western Montana through Thursday. The weather pattern will promote
mostly clear skies and generally light winds today. A weak
weather system on Thursday will bring increased cloud cover and
winds during the evening.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 270458
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1058 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...No changes to the forecast this evening.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure will remain over the region
tonight, keeping generally clear skies and pleasant conditions
over western Montana and north central Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...No updates to the forecast.

DISCUSSION...The clouds and showers have started to dissipate
across Lemhi County and southwest Montana.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 124 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

.PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWED BY COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
Northern Rockies through Thursday. Anticipate one more morning of
patchy frost for high elevation valleys near the Continental
Divide. Otherwise, temperatures will be steadily increasing
throughout the week.

Another relatively cold and rainy scenario is anticipated to
impact the Northern Rockies Friday through the whole Labor Day
weekend. Considering that the strongest upper level flow observed
over the region since June, gusty surface winds are anticipated to
develop Friday and intensify even further on Saturday. Outdoor
activities and loose objects will be adversely impacted by this
wind. Model guidance suggests a strong surface cold front will
pass through the area between mid-day Saturday through Saturday
evening, however forecast timing of the front may vary a great
deal over the next several days. Following the cold front,
widespread precipitation and cold August temperatures will be
present. Snow levels are likely to reach as low as 6000 feet on
Sunday or Monday mornings. Also, another round of frost for
valleys near the Continental Divide will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Global models continue to depict a persistently cold forecast
solution across the Northern Rockies over the next 10 days. Aside
from the brief warm-up this week, storm systems are lined up
behind the Labor Day weekend system and poised to impact the
region. This persistent pattern will have huge implications on
outdoor activities, grain and hay agriculture, and the current
wildfire season. Also, this pattern could hasten the first
hard freeze of autumn for many mid and high elevation locations.
Bottom line: it is quite possible summer may not return until
next year.

AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 270458
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1058 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...No changes to the forecast this evening.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure will remain over the region
tonight, keeping generally clear skies and pleasant conditions
over western Montana and north central Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...No updates to the forecast.

DISCUSSION...The clouds and showers have started to dissipate
across Lemhi County and southwest Montana.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 124 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

.PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWED BY COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
Northern Rockies through Thursday. Anticipate one more morning of
patchy frost for high elevation valleys near the Continental
Divide. Otherwise, temperatures will be steadily increasing
throughout the week.

Another relatively cold and rainy scenario is anticipated to
impact the Northern Rockies Friday through the whole Labor Day
weekend. Considering that the strongest upper level flow observed
over the region since June, gusty surface winds are anticipated to
develop Friday and intensify even further on Saturday. Outdoor
activities and loose objects will be adversely impacted by this
wind. Model guidance suggests a strong surface cold front will
pass through the area between mid-day Saturday through Saturday
evening, however forecast timing of the front may vary a great
deal over the next several days. Following the cold front,
widespread precipitation and cold August temperatures will be
present. Snow levels are likely to reach as low as 6000 feet on
Sunday or Monday mornings. Also, another round of frost for
valleys near the Continental Divide will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Global models continue to depict a persistently cold forecast
solution across the Northern Rockies over the next 10 days. Aside
from the brief warm-up this week, storm systems are lined up
behind the Labor Day weekend system and poised to impact the
region. This persistent pattern will have huge implications on
outdoor activities, grain and hay agriculture, and the current
wildfire season. Also, this pattern could hasten the first
hard freeze of autumn for many mid and high elevation locations.
Bottom line: it is quite possible summer may not return until
next year.

AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 270341
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...No updates to the forecast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The clouds and showers have started to dissipate
across Lemhi County and southwest Montana.


&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 124 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

..PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWED BY COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
Northern Rockies through Thursday. Anticipate one more morning of
patchy frost for high elevation valleys near the Continental
Divide. Otherwise, temperatures will be steadily increasing
throughout the week.

Another relatively cold and rainy scenario is anticipated to
impact the Northern Rockies Friday through the whole Labor Day
weekend. Considering that the strongest upper level flow observed
over the region since June, gusty surface winds are anticipated to
develop Friday and intensify even further on Saturday. Outdoor
activities and loose objects will be adversely impacted by this
wind. Model guidance suggests a strong surface cold front will
pass through the area between mid-day Saturday through Saturday
evening, however forecast timing of the front may vary a great
deal over the next several days. Following the cold front,
widespread precipitation and cold August temperatures will be
present. Snow levels are likely to reach as low as 6000 feet on
Sunday or Monday mornings. Also, another round of frost for
valleys near the Continental Divide will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Global models continue to depict a persistently cold forecast
solution across the Northern Rockies over the next 10 days. Aside
from the brief warm-up this week, storm systems are lined up
behind the Labor Day weekend system and poised to impact the
region. This persistent pattern will have huge implications on
outdoor activities, grain and hay agriculture, and the current
wildfire season. Also, this pattern could hasten the first
hard freeze of autumn for many mid and high elevation locations.
Bottom line: it is quite possible summer may not return until
next year.

AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KMSO 270341
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
941 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...No updates to the forecast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The clouds and showers have started to dissipate
across Lemhi County and southwest Montana.


&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 124 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014/

..PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWED BY COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
Northern Rockies through Thursday. Anticipate one more morning of
patchy frost for high elevation valleys near the Continental
Divide. Otherwise, temperatures will be steadily increasing
throughout the week.

Another relatively cold and rainy scenario is anticipated to
impact the Northern Rockies Friday through the whole Labor Day
weekend. Considering that the strongest upper level flow observed
over the region since June, gusty surface winds are anticipated to
develop Friday and intensify even further on Saturday. Outdoor
activities and loose objects will be adversely impacted by this
wind. Model guidance suggests a strong surface cold front will
pass through the area between mid-day Saturday through Saturday
evening, however forecast timing of the front may vary a great
deal over the next several days. Following the cold front,
widespread precipitation and cold August temperatures will be
present. Snow levels are likely to reach as low as 6000 feet on
Sunday or Monday mornings. Also, another round of frost for
valleys near the Continental Divide will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Global models continue to depict a persistently cold forecast
solution across the Northern Rockies over the next 10 days. Aside
from the brief warm-up this week, storm systems are lined up
behind the Labor Day weekend system and poised to impact the
region. This persistent pattern will have huge implications on
outdoor activities, grain and hay agriculture, and the current
wildfire season. Also, this pattern could hasten the first
hard freeze of autumn for many mid and high elevation locations.
Bottom line: it is quite possible summer may not return until
next year.

AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KMSO 261924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
124 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014

...PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWED BY COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
Northern Rockies through Thursday. Anticipate one more morning of
patchy frost for high elevation valleys near the Continental
Divide. Otherwise, temperatures will be steadily increasing
throughout the week.

Another relatively cold and rainy scenario is anticipated to
impact the Northern Rockies Friday through the whole Labor Day
weekend. Considering that the strongest upper level flow observed
over the region since June, gusty surface winds are anticipated to
develop Friday and intensify even further on Saturday. Outdoor
activities and loose objects will be adversely impacted by this
wind. Model guidance suggests a strong surface cold front will
pass through the area between mid-day Saturday through Saturday
evening, however forecast timing of the front may vary a great
deal over the next several days. Following the cold front,
widespread precipitation and cold August temperatures will be
present. Snow levels are likely to reach as low as 6000 feet on
Sunday or Monday mornings. Also, another round of frost for
valleys near the Continental Divide will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Global models continue to depict a persistently cold forecast
solution across the Northern Rockies over the next 10 days. Aside
from the brief warm-up this week, storm systems are lined up
behind the Labor Day weekend system and poised to impact the
region. This persistent pattern will have huge implications on
outdoor activities, grain and hay agriculture, and the current
wildfire season. Also, this pattern could hasten the first
hard freeze of autumn for many mid and high elevation locations.
Bottom line: it is quite possible summer may not return until
next year.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Zumpfe

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 261924
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
124 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014

...PREPARE FOR GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWED BY COLD AND RAINY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
Northern Rockies through Thursday. Anticipate one more morning of
patchy frost for high elevation valleys near the Continental
Divide. Otherwise, temperatures will be steadily increasing
throughout the week.

Another relatively cold and rainy scenario is anticipated to
impact the Northern Rockies Friday through the whole Labor Day
weekend. Considering that the strongest upper level flow observed
over the region since June, gusty surface winds are anticipated to
develop Friday and intensify even further on Saturday. Outdoor
activities and loose objects will be adversely impacted by this
wind. Model guidance suggests a strong surface cold front will
pass through the area between mid-day Saturday through Saturday
evening, however forecast timing of the front may vary a great
deal over the next several days. Following the cold front,
widespread precipitation and cold August temperatures will be
present. Snow levels are likely to reach as low as 6000 feet on
Sunday or Monday mornings. Also, another round of frost for
valleys near the Continental Divide will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

Global models continue to depict a persistently cold forecast
solution across the Northern Rockies over the next 10 days. Aside
from the brief warm-up this week, storm systems are lined up
behind the Labor Day weekend system and poised to impact the
region. This persistent pattern will have huge implications on
outdoor activities, grain and hay agriculture, and the current
wildfire season. Also, this pattern could hasten the first
hard freeze of autumn for many mid and high elevation locations.
Bottom line: it is quite possible summer may not return until
next year.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the Northern Rockies will make for pleasant
flying conditions for the next 24 hours and beyond. Aside from
typical daytime winds developing for area terminals, little
aviation weather impact is anticipated during this time.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

Zumpfe

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https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Missoula.gov
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000
FXUS65 KMSO 261021
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
421 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014

...Potential for patchy frost again tonight...

.DISCUSSION...Today and Wednesday are going to be very nice days
across western Montana and central Idaho due to a flat ridge of
high pressure settling over the area. Conditions will be dry and
warm, with temperatures returning to the 80 degree range across
most locations, with only a select few places remaining in the mid
to upper 70s. Meanwhile, another chilly night is in store tonight,
with valleys in the Glacier Park region and along the spine of the
Continental Divide flirting with the freezing mark once again.
Patchy frost is possible as a result, so those with sensitive
vegetation should take precautionary measures for one more night.

A weak system moving through BC Canada may brush Glacier NP
Thursday afternoon, bringing a slight chance of showers and maybe
a thunderstorm. Nothing of significance is expected however as
the airmass looks to remain fairly dry.

By late Friday, a deep trough will begin to dig over the Pacific
NW. Weak waves of energy in advance of the trough may be able to
touch off a few showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.

For the weekend and Labor Day holiday, models continue to show a
deep trough slowly moving through the Northern Rockies and bringing
cool and showery conditions along with gusty winds. Some of the
higher peaks could even see another dusting of snow. While it is still
a little early to know exactly which day will have the best chance of
precipitation, the bottom line is those with outdoor plans for the
holiday weekend should be prepared for raw conditions with fall-
like temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Pleasant flying conditions expected today and tonight,
with light winds and dry/stable conditions.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 261021
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
421 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2014

...Potential for patchy frost again tonight...

.DISCUSSION...Today and Wednesday are going to be very nice days
across western Montana and central Idaho due to a flat ridge of
high pressure settling over the area. Conditions will be dry and
warm, with temperatures returning to the 80 degree range across
most locations, with only a select few places remaining in the mid
to upper 70s. Meanwhile, another chilly night is in store tonight,
with valleys in the Glacier Park region and along the spine of the
Continental Divide flirting with the freezing mark once again.
Patchy frost is possible as a result, so those with sensitive
vegetation should take precautionary measures for one more night.

A weak system moving through BC Canada may brush Glacier NP
Thursday afternoon, bringing a slight chance of showers and maybe
a thunderstorm. Nothing of significance is expected however as
the airmass looks to remain fairly dry.

By late Friday, a deep trough will begin to dig over the Pacific
NW. Weak waves of energy in advance of the trough may be able to
touch off a few showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.

For the weekend and Labor Day holiday, models continue to show a
deep trough slowly moving through the Northern Rockies and bringing
cool and showery conditions along with gusty winds. Some of the
higher peaks could even see another dusting of snow. While it is still
a little early to know exactly which day will have the best chance of
precipitation, the bottom line is those with outdoor plans for the
holiday weekend should be prepared for raw conditions with fall-
like temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Pleasant flying conditions expected today and tonight,
with light winds and dry/stable conditions.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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